<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> has lodged plans for a $750 million, three-tower mixed-use precinct that would complete the long-running redevelopment of Carlton's former Carlton United Breweries site.

The proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/185-195-queensberry-street-carlton-vic-3053">46-78 Bouverie Street and 185-195 Queensberry Street</a> spans a 6,468 sqm site, the last remaining undeveloped parcels within the former brewery's 2007 masterplan.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the development will comprise two purpose-built student accommodation towers and a third build-to-sell apartment tower above a shared commercial podium and basement.

Across the three towers, SP Setia is proposing 606 build-to-sell apartments and 1,499 student accommodation units containing 2,009 beds.

The apartments will sit in the tallest tower, which will rise nearly 200m and 55 storeys. It will become&nbsp;one of the more substantial new build-to-sell apartment projects at the northern edge of Melbourne's CBD.

The apartment mix is weighted toward smaller inner-city product, with 188 studios, 206 one-bedroom apartments, 192 two-bedroom apartments and 20 three-bedroom apartments

<img alt="First look: SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8271bc87-1b0a-41b7-ac73-a425ee375261" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/3_2.png?VersionId=G4lw23o90B1boX4k4dj7rdz2ZEajS9wy" />

Part of the precinct will be a large-scale&nbsp;3,684 sqm supermarket and a further 2,198 sqm of speciality retail, creating close to 5,900 sqm of new commercial space within the precinct.

But one of the biggest components of the proposal is what sits between the buildings.

Around 4,650 sqm, or roughly 72 per cent of the site, will be publicly accessible open space, incorporating plazas, pedestrian connections, landscaped laneways and retail spill-out areas.

The ground plane is intended to finally complete pedestrian connections envisaged when the CUB masterplan was first approved nearly two decades ago, stitching together Victoria Street, Queensberry Street, Bouverie Street and Swanston Street through the former brewery precinct.

Urbis said the development would "complete the CUB precinct", with the public realm providing important north-south and east-west connections through what is currently the final undeveloped portion of the masterplanned site.

SP Setia is also exploring a new linear park within the Bouverie Street road reserve, with the concept to be developed further with the City of Melbourne through the planning process.

The proposal is being pursued through the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program under Clause 53.23 for significant residential development with affordable housing.

The planning report acknowledges the proposed heights exceed those contemplated under the original Comprehensive Development Plan and masterplan, but argues the built-form context has changed considerably over the past two decades.

Urbis said the three towers would instead create a stepped transition between Carlton and the Hoddle Grid, rising progressively from the 94.1-metre Tower One along the Queensberry Street edge to the 199.44-metre Tower Three closer to the established CBD-scale buildings to the south.

<img alt="SP Setia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e885a07a-592c-40fc-bf82-e6dbaf32da54" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.52.24%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7s_ErUkSKAdY1mAWp3GRZgMNCGtwhk5m" />

SP Setia plans to deliver the development across three stages.

Stage One would deliver the basement, podium and retail areas for the entire precinct alongside the first student tower. Tower Two would follow in Stage Two, before the 606-apartment Tower Three is delivered as the final stage.

If approved and delivered, the project would close out a redevelopment process that has been underway since the former brewery masterplan was approved in 2007, adding more than 2,600 student beds and apartments to a precinct already home to Swanston Central, the Barak Building, RMIT Design Hub and several large student accommodation developments.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct

Melbourne developer Lowe Living is seeking to add to its growing bayside apartment pipeline, filing plans for a boutique eight-residence development in tightly held Middle Park.

Lowe Living, which has built much of its development portfolio across Melbourne's affluent bayside and south-east suburbs, is behind the plans for the 730 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/123-125-erskine-street-middle-park-vic-3206">123-125 Erskine Street</a>, just off Armstrong Street and within the Armstrong Street Neighbourhood Activity Centre.

The developer is seeking approval for a five-storey residential building above two basement levels, with just eight large-format apartments and 18 car spaces.

“This is a deliberately very different proposition for us,"&nbsp;Tim Lowe, Co-Founder of Lowe Living, said.

"Eight residences is exceptionally boutique, but that's precisely what this site calls for.

“There is a strong community in Middle Park and the surrounding suburbs who have spent decades building a life here. They no longer want the maintenance of a large period home, but they aren't prepared to compromise on space, quality or location. We think there is a real opportunity to capture that hyper local market. A site like this rarely comes to market.”

<img alt="Lowe " data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="875fe572-0f14-4d90-9e11-55b28dd07731" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.42.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GDNQRv9BfpR9r1zkZ5UDyUM4ZvpIksut" />

The low-density proposal has been designed by Cera Stribley and is being progressed through the Victorian Government's Great Design Fast Track pathway, having already secured eligibility from the Minister for Planning.

The Office of the Victorian Government Architect supported its eligibility after finding the proposal demonstrated consistency with the program's seven design principles, while the project's financial feasibility has also been independently confirmed by Invest Victoria.

The project is targeting the downsizer market, with the planning documents describing the homes as larger-format residences and noting the two penthouses could otherwise have been configured as four separate apartments.

<img alt="Lowe 2" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="60ab0987-2da6-4175-adac-315dcf6053c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.15%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=bOCPH0B2MFwlmaRW.TTCF9TzyifgVoQI" />

The site has dual frontage to Erskine Street and Canterbury Place and currently comprises a collection of commercial buildings used as offices, including a former heritage bakehouse, a former stable, a later gabled addition and a central courtyard.

It sits within the Commercial 1 Zone and the Armstrong Street Commercial Precinct heritage overlay, with the existing property classified as a contributory heritage place.

Heritage has subsequently played a significant role in Cera Stribley's design.

The front section of the former bakehouse facing Erskine Street will be retained, including its return walls, street-facing hipped roof and chimneys, while the Erskine Street façade and part of the western return wall of the former stable will also be incorporated into the new development.

Levels four and five will be set back five metres from the retained stable façade, while bricks removed through demolition are proposed to be salvaged and reused within the new building where possible.

<img alt="Lowe 3" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e97927a9-a2de-4a0f-83b6-65451238abfa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.06%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VR44AChLrX9q1XPB9GvVQV.ALXXbe4gC" />

Rather than presenting as a single five-storey building to Erskine Street, Cera Stribley has broken the development into a series of distinct forms.

A three-storey infill element will sit between the retained bakehouse and stable façades, with the upper levels recessed behind the heritage fabric. Canterbury Place will similarly feature two three-storey podium forms, separated by a central pedestrian accessway, before the upper two levels step back from the street.

A pedestrian through-link will run through the centre of the project between Erskine Street and Canterbury Place, creating entrances from both sides of the site and introducing landscaping and communal areas through the ground plane.

Landscape architect Acre has designed planting across the ground level, private terraces and upper levels, including a feature canopy tree at level three and integrated planting and arbours across the level four terraces. Five existing Erskine Street trees are proposed to be retained.

Sustainability is also a significant component of the Great Design Fast Track application. The apartments are targeting an average eight-star NatHERS rating, with no residence below 6.5 stars, while the project has achieved a 75 per cent BESS score. Seven of the eight apartments are designed for cross-ventilation, with the remaining residence using mechanically assisted natural ventilation.

The plans also incorporate an 8kWp rooftop solar system, a 5,000-litre rainwater tank and infrastructure allowing future electric vehicle charging for every residence.

Lowe has a strong portfolio across Melbourne's blue-chip suburbs. They recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/jardin-house-by-lowe-living-camberwell-335-camberwell-road-camberwell-vic-3124">Jardin House by Lowe Living</a> in Camberwell, their first development in the Stonnington LGA.

Lowe Living unveils Middle Park apartment development

Article summary

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.

The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" />

The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.

“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;

“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."

Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."

"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." />

The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.

A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.

Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" />

Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.

“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.

“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.

“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" />

Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.

With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]

DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

<a data-end="327" data-is-only-node="" data-start="250" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/norus-projects" rel="noopener" target="_new">Norus Developments</a> has lodged plans for a new apartment development in Clayton that would add further momentum to the suburb's emerging Green Street corridor.

Plans have been lodged for the consolidated site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1359-1365-centre-road-clayton-vic-3168">1359-1365 Centre Road</a>, where Norus is seeking approval for 218 apartments across a 12-storey apartment building designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/life-architecture-and-urban-design">Life Architecture</a>.

The proposal sits within the Clayton Major Activity Centre at the threshold of the planned Green Street corridor, a landscaped pedestrian connection intended to improve links through the precinct towards Clayton Railway Station.

The development would replace the site's existing collection of low-scale residential and commercial buildings with a single consolidated building, introducing significantly greater housing density to this part of Centre Road.

A retail tenancy is proposed at ground level to activate the Centre Road frontage, accompanied by transparent street interfaces and landscaping intended to create a more pedestrian-focused edge to the development.

<img alt="First look: Norus Developments plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0a5a763a-d9e9-4253-af2f-88008de27ebf" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Clayton%20a.png?VersionId=S2WJJbat1XVkZwB9SnYtygirXgWHiklX" />

The building has been designed with stepped massing and upper-level setbacks to manage its transition towards surrounding residential properties. The planning report describes the approach as one that integrates the building into the landscape rather than treating landscaping as a secondary element.

"A strong landscape and public realm strategy underpins the proposal," Urbis states in the planning report.

"Public benefits include an affordable housing contribution, a new pocket park, generous landscaped setbacks, deep soil planting and integrated Water Sensitive Urban Design."

The report adds that these elements are intended to create "a permeable, pedestrian-focused ground plane that enhances walkability, supports urban cooling and reinforces the emerging Green Street character."

Biophilic and passive design principles extend through the residential levels, with planting, daylight, natural ventilation and views towards landscaped areas forming part of the amenity strategy.

Parking would be concentrated away from the public realm, with 145 car spaces proposed from the rear laneway rather than dominating the Centre Road frontage.

The proposal follows an extensive pre-application process with the City of Monash. Three formal meetings were held between the project team and Council from December 2025 to March 2026, with the scheme evolving through several concept iterations before the current design was lodged.

The project arrives as Clayton prepares for substantial change around its established activity centre and the wider Suburban Rail Loop precinct. Its position on Centre Road places the development within an existing concentration of shops, services and public transport, while the Green Street connection is intended to strengthen pedestrian access towards Clayton Railway Station.

First look: Norus plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a> has officially commenced construction on Bronze on Chevron, celebrating the sod turning of its first-ever Gold Coast development and marking a significant milestone in the company's continued expansion across South East Queensland.&nbsp;

Following the successful delivery of premium residential developments throughout Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-chevron-island-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> represents Gardner Vaughan Group's entry into the Gold Coast market. Bronze will deliver 119 one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments above two ground-level retail tenancies.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367193]

The recent sod turning ceremony was attended by Deputy Mayor Mark Hammel, President of the Surfers Paradise Surf Life Saving Club, Cassandra Sedgman, project consultants, purchasers, project partners and invited guests to celebrate the commencement of construction.&nbsp;

Gardner Vaughan Group Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge said Bronze on Chevron represented an exciting new chapter for the business.&nbsp;

"We've spent almost four decades building homes that respond to the way people want to live, and we're excited to bring that experience to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chevron-island-qld-4217">Chevron Island</a>," Betteridge said.

"Bronze on Chevron is particularly significant because it marks Gardner Vaughan Group's first development on the Gold Coast following many successful projects across Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367183]

Betteridge said the ground breaking is a proud moment for the&nbsp;team and their purchasers, who can now see their future homes beginning to take shape.&nbsp;

"As both developer and builder, we're able to oversee every aspect of the project from design through to construction, ensuring the quality and attention to detail Gardner Vaughan Group has become renowned for."&nbsp;

Designed by acclaimed architectural practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, Bronze on Chevron has been thoughtfully designed to complement Chevron Island's evolving streetscape while embracing its relaxed coastal lifestyle.

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029

Gardner Vaughan Group breaks ground on first Gold Coast development, Bronze on Chevron

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics released construction work done data for the March 2016 quarter last week. 
The data set looks at the value of construction work completed over the quarter and is an input to the national accounts (GDP) data.
<a href="/images/2016/06/06/Chart-1-3-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/06/Chart-1-3-580x210.jpg" alt="">
Over the quarter, the value of construction work done was $47.928 billion which was down -5.5 percent over the quarter and -7.2 percent year-on-year.  In fact, the value of construction work done over the March 2016 quarter was the lowest since June 2011 and has been trending lower since the December 2012 quarter.
<a href="/images/2016/06/06/Chart-2-2-580x208.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/06/Chart-2-2-580x208.jpg" alt="">
The decline in the value of work done is largely being driven by engineering construction which was bolstered until recent by the mining investment boom.  Over the quarter there was $24.9 billion worth of building work completed and $23.0 billion in engineering construction completed. 
It shows that following a recent boost from infrastructure investment, building construction is now the key driver.  The value of engineering construction work done peaked at $34.7 billion in the September 2012 quarter and has since fallen by -33.6 percent while building activity peaked at $25.2 billion in the December 2015 quarter and has fallen by -1.0%.  With construction work in both the building and engineering sectors falling it is difficult to see how construction work done won’t continue to decline over the coming months.  Even the largest residential housing construction boom on record has not been enough to offset the previous largest engineering construction investment boom on record.
<a href="/images/2016/06/06/Chart-3-2-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/06/Chart-3-2-580x210.jpg" alt="">
The building segment of construction work done consists of residential and non-residential construction (offices, retail shops, industrial properties).  The previous data showed building work has started to fall with the fall being driven by non-residential construction.  In fact residential construction work done is continuing to climb and is now at a record high $16.6 billion while non-residential is down -18.6 percent from its June 2010 peak.  While the largest residential construction boom in history continues to drive activity in that sector higher, it isn’t enough to offset the decline in the non-residential (and engineering construction) sector which is well below peak levels of activity.
<a href="/images/2016/06/06/Chart-4-1-580x207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/06/Chart-4-1-580x207.jpg" alt="">
The residential construction component is further broken down into three components: houses, other residential (units) and alterations and additions, including conversions. Unit construction work done reached a record high of $6.8 billion on the back of the biggest unit construction boom on record. 
While unit construction activity continues to rise, the $7.7 billion in work done for houses is down -7.1 percent from its recent peak in March 2015 at $8.3 billion.  The value of alterations and additions completed was recorded at $2.0 billion over the quarter down -6.9 percent from its $2.1 billion peak over the September 2011 quarter.  It is anticipated work done for houses will continue to trend lower while unit work should trend higher over the next few quarters before starting to fall. 
Meanwhile, the direction of alterations and additions is unclear but there could be some scope for an increase over the coming quarters and years given how much equity some home owners have and the costs associated with moving home.
Residential construction has been a large contributor to economic growth over recent years however, it looks as if it is likely to start detracting from growth as construction activity moves through a peak. 
Housing construction activity has already been fading for a year while unit activity continues to rise however, we anticipate that it too will turn within the next 12 months. With the resources boom and concurrent infrastructure investment boom so important to Australia’s prosperity coming out of the financial crisis as it faded, building activity became extremely important, particularly residential construction activity. 
With the residential construction boom starting to fade we need the next economic driver to rise in order to offset the slowing in building activity. An increase in infrastructure investment would seem to be a prime candidate however, Governments may not be willing to invest the money. The next boom will seemingly need to come from somewhere else; potentially from the education, health and tourism sectors as the lower Australian dollar makes these sectors more globally competitive as well as increased consumption if households start to ease their rate of saving.
 
<div class="sharedaddy sd-sharing-enabled">
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>. </div>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

The value of construction work done for houses is falling with units likely to follow shortly: Cameron Kusher

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The preliminary auction clearance rate nudged higher over the first week of winter, however the number of auctions dipped compared with the previous week. 
There were 1,953 auctions held over the week, down from 2,480 last week, however higher than one year ago when 1,201 auctions were held and auction volumes were low due to the Queen’s birthday public holiday in all cities with the exclusion of Perth.
Preliminary results show that 70.4 percent of capital city auctions held this week were successful, rising from a final result of 67.7 percent last week. One year ago, across the lower number of auctions, 78.5 percent sold. Melbourne and Sydney, the two largest auction markets have maintained strength this week, while across the remaining, significantly smaller auction markets, results have been more varied.
<a href="/images/2016/06/06/20160606-Capital-city.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/06/20160606-Capital-city.png" alt="">
This week, 959 residential properties were taken to auction in Melbourne with 71.4 percent clearing, based on preliminary results. In comparison, over the previous week 1,170 auctions were held with a 71.5 percent clearance rate, while one year ago, given the following Monday was a public holiday, just 315 homes went to auction, with a strong clearance rate of 80.3 percent. While Melbourne as a whole had a clearance rate of 71.4 percent this week, across the individual sub-regions clearance rates ranged from as high as 79.2 percent across the Inner South region and as low as 60.6 percent across the South East region. The busiest sub-region for auctions was the Inner region with 180 auctions.
<a href="/images/2016/06/06/20160606-Melbourne.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/06/20160606-Melbourne.png" alt="">
Sydney’s clearance rate rose over the week from 73.2 percent last week to 76.7 percent. The number of auctions held across the city this week was lower than last week, at 654, compared to 811. One year ago 603 Sydney auctions were held with 88.7 percent clearing. So far this year, Sydney’s clearance rate has remained relatively robust, after dipping to as low as 52.9 percent at the end of last year. However, results across the city are substantially lower than they were at the same time last year, and the volume of auctions held over the year to date is around 20 percent lower. This week, the City and Inner South region had the strongest preliminary clearance result across the city (85.7 percent), followed by Ryde at 85 percent and Eastern Suburbs at 84.9 percent.
<a href="/images/2016/06/06/20160606-Sydney.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/06/20160606-Sydney.png" alt="">
This week auction activity across Brisbane fell, from 192 auctions last week to 129 this week. Last week Brisbane’s clearance rate was 41.7 percent, however preliminary results show a weekly rise to 55.4 percent this week. One year ago, 130 Brisbane auctions were held with a clearance rate of 48.5 percent. Across the Gold Coast, the preliminary clearance rate this week is 35.3 percent, compared to 40.7 percent last week. There were 46 auctions held across the region, down from 84 last week.
<a href="/images/2016/06/06/20160606-Brisbane.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/06/20160606-Brisbane.png" alt="">
The preliminary auction clearance rate for Adelaide was 67.2 percent this week, up from 52.6 percent last week, which was the second lowest clearance rate result seen across the city so far this year. 98 homes were taken to auction this week, compared to 125 last week. Over the corresponding week last year, 62 Adelaide auctions were held with 71.2 percent clearing.
<a href="/images/2016/06/06/20160606-Adelaide.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/06/20160606-Adelaide.png" alt="">
Perth’s preliminary results show that 30 per cent of the 10 reported auctions were successful this week. Perth’s clearance rate tends to move around a lot, however this week’s result is only slightly lower than last week (30.6 percent) and down compared to last year (45.9 percent).
For the first time in five weeks, Canberra’s clearance rate edged over the 70 percent mark last week, recorded at 70.5 percent. This week, however, the clearance rate for the city fell to 46.8 percent across 77 auctions. One year ago, Canberra’s final auction clearance rate for the week was 61.3 percent across 38 auctions.
8 auctions were held across Tasmania this week, with 4 reported so far and 3 sold.
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smiller-vwPjRHTkST

Auction clearance rate maintains strength over first week of winter: CoreLogic's Shana Miller 

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Bill Shorten and Labor are promising to perform a mathematical miracle in the real estate industry: they have a policy under which prices will keep rising but affordability will improve.
Labor justified its real estate taxation policy with the claimed desire to improve housing affordability. Shorten in his policy announcement essentially blamed all price rises over the past 30 years on negatively-geared investors and inferred that nobbling them would revolutionise affordability.
This has scared the living daylights out Australians who live in the 70 percent of households which own their homes. Labor was promising to reduce the value of their major asset.
Since Labor realised the fundamental flaw in its policy pitch, it has been at pains to claim that property values won’t fall under its changes. The ALP-aligned think tank, The McKell Institute, is now saying that house prices will keep rising under the Labor policy.
So Labor proposes to perform a statistical miracle. Prices will keep rising but affordability will improve. One wonders about the means they will use to achieve this. Other than lower prices, the only mechanisms for improving affordability are a big cut in interest rates (already at record lows and not controlled by the politicians) and/or a big rise in incomes (not part of the plan, as far as I know).
This confirms – yet again – that politicians collectively lack even a primary school understanding of how property markets work and how their blinkered policies impact on real estate consumers. They seem unable to think policies through to logical conclusions. They keep introducing laws which they claim will improve affordability but which make it worse – every time.
This is playing out at a state level, with the Governments in charge of the two biggest states slugging foreign investors with new taxes. They maintain that this will somehow make housing cheaper but sadly - yet again - it will have the opposite impact.
There are widely diverging views on affordability – how serious it is, what causes the problem, who’s to blame for prices rising and how to fix things. But one area where most parties tend to agree is that increasing the supply of dwellings would have a beneficial impact.
In fact, the best chance of bringing down prices at a local level is creation of an oversupply. As we have seen in selected locations around Australia in recent years, it’s the one major element that causes prices to drop.
Specific markets, notably inner-city apartment markets in some capital cities, are poised for a hefty rise in supply which is linked directly to foreign investment. If planned projects proceed, price decline is almost inevitable.
But state government moves in Victoria and New South Wales to lift sharply increase taxes on foreign buyers of Australia real estate are likely to prevent or limit that increase in supply.
Coupled with moves by the banks to curtail lending to foreign buyers and ATO measures affecting sales above $2 million, Australia has quickly cobbled together a series of major disincentives to foreign investment. There are reports of Asian investors switching their focus away from Australia to other, more welcoming nations.
If foreign investors stop buying (they won’t all be turned away, but many will, I suspect) many of the proposed apartment projects simply will not be built. 
The big increase in new dwelling supply will be lost, as will many construction jobs. 
In reality, I suspect the state measures have little to do with a desire to improve affordability. It’s essentially a cash grab, disguised as a measure to help young Australians achieve home ownership.
Like everything else coming out of the befuddled brains of politicians, the moves will make the problems in real estate worse.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Cash grab or about affordability? Terry Ryder

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The Redcliffe Tavern, prominently positioned in the commercial heart of the Redcliffe peninsular, north of Brisbane, has been sold for $15 million.
The off-market sale, on behalf of the private investor from Melbourne, was negotiated by Jon Tyson and Peter Tyson of Savills Retail Sales.
The property, comprising a modern freestanding tavern and First Choice Liquor Superstore, was acquired by a private investor on a yield of approximately 6%.
Peter Tyson said the property is leased to Liquorland (Qld) Pty Ltd, the major liquor division of Coles Group Ltd, on a 20-year lease to 2029 with two further 10-year options,” he said. 
The Redcliffe Tavernwas developed in circa 2009 on a 2,498sq m site at 32 Anzac Avenue, Redcliffe, approximately 28km north of the Brisbane CBD. 
It was bought in 2014 for $11.5 million on a yield of 7.27 per cent.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

The Redcliffe Tavern north of Brisbane has been sold for $15 million

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The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has released its quarterly Authorised Deposit-taking Institution (ADI) property exposures data for the March 2016 quarter. 
This data is really valuable as it provides additional insight into the mortgage market, including data which is not available from the monthly housing finance statistics.
<a href="/images/2016/06/01/Chart-1-4-580x207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/01/Chart-1-4-580x207.jpg" alt="">
The data initially focuses on outstanding total values and shows that at the end of the March 2016 quarter there was $906.7 billion outstanding to owner occupiers and $501.3 billion to investors.  While total lending continued to rise, up 8.7% year-on-year, it is interesting to see how the tilt away from investment lending has progressed.
Over the past 12 months, total investor lending has increased by just 0.1% with the total value of investor mortgage lending outstanding down -3.2% from its June 2015 quarter peak.  The data also indicates that investor credit growth now sits significantly below the APRA imposed 10% pa speed limit.  This could lead to a rebound in lending to investors over the coming quarters.  Total lending to owner occupiers has continued to increase and is up 14.0% year-on-year.  In terms of the total value of outstanding mortgages, owner occupiers account for 64.4% compared to 35.6% to investors.  The proportion of outstanding mortgages to investors has fallen sharply from its recent peak of 39.0% in June 2015.
<a href="/images/2016/06/01/Chart-2-3-580x211.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/01/Chart-2-3-580x211.jpg" alt="">
Although the total value of outstanding mortgages is rising you can see that growth is generally slowing.  Mortgages with offset facilities account for a record-high 43.0% of all outstanding mortgages and the value of these mortgages has increased 20.4% year-on-year.  Interest-only mortgages account for 39.3% of total outstanding mortgages, with the value having increased by 9.6% year-on-year.  Reverse mortgages account for just 0.5% of all outstanding mortgages with the value of outstanding mortgages up 1.4% year-on-year.  Only 2.4% of the value of outstanding mortgages are for low-documentation loans and 0.1% are other non-standard loans.  Year-on-year the value of outstanding low-documentation mortgages is -16.5% lower and other non-standard mortgages are -4.0% lower.  In fact the total value of outstanding low-documentation and other non-standard mortgages is at a record low.
<a href="/images/2016/06/01/Chart-3-3-580x208.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/01/Chart-3-3-580x208.jpg" alt="">
The average outstanding mortgage balance was recorded at $251,900 in March 2016, having increased by 4.8% year-on-year.  At the end of March 2016, the average outstanding balances across loan types were: $307,200 for loans with an offset, $334,400 for interest-only, $96,500 for reverse mortgages, $192,200 for low-documentation and $193,400 for other non-standard loans.  All loan types except for low-documentation (-1.1%) and other non-standard (-7.0%) have seen the average balance increase over the past year: offset (6.3%), interest-only (5.0%), reverse mortgages (2.4%).
To date, all data analysed has focused on total balances outstanding, the following data will focus specifically on quarterly new lending.
<a href="/images/2016/06/01/Chart-4-2-580x208.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/01/Chart-4-2-580x208.jpg" alt="">
Over the March 2016 quarter there was $81.7 billion in new mortgage lending, which was the lowest quarterly value of new lending since the March 2014 quarter.  This figure comprises of $56.0 billion in lending to owner occupiers and $25.7 billion in lending to investors.  The value of new lending to owner occupiers has increased by 16.1% year-on-year while the value of investor lending is -25.5% lower year-on-year.  The value of new lending to investors is the lowest since the March 2013 quarter and is -37.7% lower from its peak over the June 2015 quarter.  The data indicates that there has been a significant pull-back in new lending to investors over recent quarters.
<a href="/images/2016/06/01/Chart-5-1-580x207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/01/Chart-5-1-580x207.jpg" alt="">
With the value of new mortgage lending falling, the value of most loan types is now also falling.  Over the March 2016 quarter, 0.3% of new lending was for low documentation loans, 34.9% was for interest-only, 0.1% was for other non-standard loans, 46.5% was originated through third part channels and 3.8% of loans were approved outside of serviceability.  The value of new lending for low documentation mortgages was at a record low.  The value of new interest-only lending was the lowest since the March 2013 quarter.  The value of other non-standard lending was the lowest since the same quarter last year as was loans approved outside of serviceability.  The value of new mortgage lending by third parties was the lowest since the September 2014 quarter.
Higher loan to value ratio (LVR) lending is reducing meaning that borrowers are typically using larger deposits.  In fact, the value of new lending for LVRS above 90% in the March 2016 was the lowest since the March 2011 quarter and has fallen by -22.8% over the past year.  Lending for LVRs between 80% and 90% has increased by 2.7% year-on-year however, it has fallen over each of the past four quarters.  In fact, lending for LVRs above 80% represented 22.4% of all new lending in March 2016 which was its lowest proportion on record and well down from the peak in March 2009 where it accounted for 37.6% of all new lending.
The value of lending to investors is falling sharply as assessment criteria is tightened and investors are typically now charged a higher interest rate than owner occupiers.  Interest-only lending which APRA and the Reserve bank have previously sounded warnings about is also starting to fall and is now at its lowest level since March 2013.  Higher LVR lending which is associated with smaller deposits are also trending lower which indicates less risky lending.  The added benefit surrounding lower LVRs is that if a borrower has a deposit of more than 20% of the value of the property they can typically avoid lenders mortgage insurance (LMI).  New lending to loans outside of serviceability, low documentation loans and other non-standard loans has also been falling over recent quarters which is reflective of less risky lending practices being undertaken.  These emerging trends can only be positives for the stability and security of the Australian mortgage lending market.
Based on the data presented, it is apparent that tighter lending policies by lenders is having a noticeable impact on the mortgage market.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Tighter lending policies see a reduction in investor and riskier lending types: Cameron Kusher

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A large Williamstown industrial site has sold under the hammer for $2.9 million.
The 7,081 sqm site at <a href="https://www.realcommercial.com.au/property-industrial+warehouse-vic-williamstown-501937546">64 Tennyson Street</a> was sold to a developer.
It has a combined 241 sqm frontage to Fink Street, Chelmsford Street and Tennyson Street.
Fitzroys agents Chris Kombi and James Gregson handled the auction campaign, in conjunction with Grita Angelucci and Sam Nadde of Property Au.
The site was offered with opportunities for investors, owner occupiers and developers, according to Chris Kombi.
It receveieced more than 60 enquiries throughout the campaign.
Gregson said the property is located in an established and highly sought after industrial precinct in Melbourne’s inner west, with the owner planning to divide the site into around 30 office/warehouse buildings. 
 
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Williamstown industrial site sold for $2.9 million

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Colliers International are auctioning a portfolio of four G8 childcare centres and seven neighbourhood retail shops across Queensland and South Australia on Wednesday 15 June at 10.30am.
The Ormeau Kids and Ormeau Shopping Centre at 1 Arthur Way in Ormeau, Queensland can be purchased separately or together. The childcare centre has a 10 year lease with options through to 2041. The shopping centre is 100 percent leased with 7 retail tenancies including Pizza Capers, Liquor Legends, Friendly Grocer, Thai Restaurant, Café, Chemist and Hairdresser.
Coomera Kids at 1/1 Brygon Creek Drive Upper Coomera, Queensland has 224 places over 3,743 sqm and a fully leased net income of $523,185.
Upper Coomera Kids at 35 Nicola Way, Upper Coomera, Queensland has 138 places over 2993 sqm and a fully leased net income of $322,319
<div id="x_prop3iconoption3_START">Morphett Vale Early Learning Centre at 105-107 Flaxmill road Morpheme Vale, South Australia has 85 places and a fully leased net income $187,487. It is on a land area of 1,902 sqm.</div>
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Portfolio of four G8 childcare centres going to auction

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Melbourne based specialist wine storage and distribution firm, Quality Wine Logistics, has agreed terms on a new office/warehouse lease at Dandenong South in Melbourne’s south-east.
The deal brokered by Savills Australia for the 197-203 Ordish Road property comprises 3818 square metres of quality office and warehouse space, including a 468 square metre, two-level office component and 3350 square metres of high clearance warehousing.
The property is located within the heart of Dandenong's industrial precinct enabling immediate access to all main arterial road networks including EastLink, Greens Road, the M1 Freeway, Dandenong Bypass and Frankston-Dandenong Road.
According to Savills’ Senior Executive Paul Jones, who negotiated the deal, the tenant agreed to a five year lease at a rental of $270,000 per annum net for the lessor, a private Melbourne investor.
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Savills secures Dandenong industrial lease deal for wine distributors

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<h1> </h1>
GUEST OBSERVER
Deflation refers to persistent and generalised price falls.
It occurred in the 1800s, 1930s and the last 20 years in Japan. Most people would see falling prices as good because they can buy more with their income. However, deflation can be good or bad depending on the circumstances.
In the period 1870-1895 in the US, deflation occurred against a background of strong economic growth, reflecting rapid productivity growth and technological innovation. This can be called “good deflation”. However, falling prices are not good if they are associated with falling wages, rising unemployment, falling asset prices and rising real debt burdens. For example, in the 1930s and more recently in Japan. This is “bad deflation”.
In the current environment of high debt levels, sustained deflation could cause big problems. Falling wages and prices would make it harder to service debts. Lower nominal growth will mean less growth in tax revenues making high public debt levels harder to pay off. And when prices fall people put off decisions to spend and invest, which could threaten economic growth. This could risk a debt deflation spiral of falling asset prices and falling incomes leading to rising debt burdens, increasing defaults, spurring more falls in asset prices, etc. There are good reasons why central banks want to avoid that.
As can be seen in the next chart, there are still more countries experiencing deflation than hyperinflation.
<h1><a href="/images/2016/05/31/chart-2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></h1>
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<img src="/images/2016/05/31/chart-2.png" alt=""> Source: Thomson Reuters, AMP Capital
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The RBA eased this month because actual inflation has fallen below target and is likely to stay there for a while.
Cutting inflation targets would be foolish and make it harder to get inflation back up to target.
Low rates are helping the Australian economy and zero rates and quantitative easing have helped the US. Central banks are not out of ammo.
For investors, it’s likely to remain a low interest rate environment for some time to come.
This year has seen a growing concern that central banks are out of ammo when it comes to reinvigorating global growth and preventing deflation. And the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest rate cut has some fearing that it’s going down the same “failed path” as other major central banks. But is it really that bad? Have central banks really failed? Are they really out of ammo?
Why did the RBA ease again?
The latest RBA rate cut, which took the official cash rate to a record low of 1.75% percent, surprised many because recent economic data in Australia has been OK. But the reason for the cut is simple. Inflation has fallen well below the RBA’s 2-3 percent target, the weakness in prices was broad based and inflation is expected by the RBA to remain below target or at the low end of the target for some time.
<a href="/images/2016/05/31/chart-1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<div class="article-body">
<img src="/images/2016/05/31/chart-1.png" alt=""> <div class="article-body">
Source: ABS, RBA, AMP Capital
Naturally, the RBA worried that if it didn’t provide more stimulus to the economy low inflation could become entrenched and could give way to deflation. With the $A pushing up towards $US0.80 prior to the cut and the Fed continuing to delay rate hikes, the RBA was no doubt also concerned that if it didn’t ease the $A would push even higher, putting more downwards pressure on inflation.
<h2>Why not just lower the inflation target?</h2>
Since the last RBA cut, some have said that the RBA should just lower its inflation target because it cannot fight falling global commodity prices and what’s wrong with very low inflation anyway. This reminds me of a similar argument back in 2007-08, when inflation had pushed above 4%, that the RBA should not worry but just raise its inflation target as it cannot fight rising global commodity prices. Such arguments are nonsense.
First, the whole point of having an inflation target is to anchor inflation expectations. If the target is just raised or lowered each time it looks like being seriously breached then those expectations - which workers use to form wage demands and companies use in setting wages and prices - will simply move up or down depending on which way the target is changed. And so inflationary or deflationary shocks from things like commodity prices will turn into permanent shifts up or down in inflation. Second, there are problems with allowing too-low inflation. Most central bank inflation targets are set at 2% or so because statistical measures of inflation tend to overstate actual inflation by 1-2% because statisticians have trouble actually adjusting for quality improvements and so some measured price rises really reflect quality improvements. In other words, 1.5% inflation could mean we are actually in deflation. And there are problems with deflation – see below.
<h2>How far will the RBA cut rates?</h2>
To the extent that the minutes from the RBA’s May meeting indicate the RBA had considered “waiting for more information”, it may choose to sit tight at its June meeting. However, given the downside risks to inflation, particularly with wages growth falling to a record low 2.1%, constrained growth and the still high $A more rate cuts are likely. We are allowing for two more rate cuts this year, taking the cash rate to 1.25% by year end.
<h2> </h2>
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<div class="article-body">
<h2>What has been driving deflation?</h2>
Several factors have driven the plunge in global inflation and some countries dipping into deflation: commodity prices have been in a downtrend since 2011 as their supply surged; and the sub-par global recovery since 2009 means the world has plenty of spare capacity. Global economic activity is around 2.5% below potential. Excess capacity means companies lack pricing power and workers lack bargaining power.
<h2>But are rate cuts actually working?</h2>
Some worry that rate cuts have just made things worse by cutting into the spending power of retirees and forcing those nearing retirement to save more. However, there are several points to note in relation to this. First, the level of household deposits in banks in Australia at around $0.9 trillion is swamped by the level of household debt at $2.2 trillion. So the household sector is a huge net beneficiary of lower interest rates. Second, the responsiveness to changes in spending power for a family with a mortgage is far greater than for retirees. Third, the proof is in the pudding. The fall in interest rates has helped the economy rebalance as mining investment has collapsed: first via a pick-up in housing construction and more recently via growth in consumer spending of close to 3% per annum (pa). While those close to retirement may be saving more because of lower investment returns, the household saving rate overall has drifted down from 11% to around 8% since the first RBA rate cut in late 2011. And of course RBA rate cuts have helped push the $A lower. So overall, rate cuts do work.
<h2>Have non-traditional monetary policies failed?</h2>
This is a relevant question with many saying that zero interest rates and quantitative easing in developed countries have not worked. But actually in the US they have as growth there has been averaging around potential at 2% pa, unemployment has fallen from 10% to below 6%, wages look to be picking up and underlying inflation is close to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Sure, the Eurozone and particularly Japan are less clear but this may be because they waited too long before acting by which time low inflation or deflation had become entrenched. The lesson from this is that central banks need to act quickly and not that non-traditional monetary policy doesn’t work.
<h2>Are central banks out of ammo?</h2>
This is a common concern. However, central banks are a long way from being unable to do anything: the Fed can reverse last year’s interest rate hike and launch another round of quantitative easing if needed; and both the ECB and Bank of Japan could expand their quantitative easing programs further both in terms of size and the type of assets. More negative interest rates are an option but central banks are wary of this after the adverse impact of Japan’s experience regarding negative rates.
The ultimate option is for central banks to provide direct financing of government spending or tax cuts using printed money. This is often referred to as “helicopter money”. Unlike quantitative easing, which requires banks to lend their newfound cash to borrowers who want to borrow, it would yield an almost guaranteed response as the recipients of government spending/tax cuts will spend at least some of it. It won’t add to government debt either. As the examples of Zimbabwe and the Weimar Republic demonstrate, such an approach would make no sense if supply is constrained relative to demand and inflation is already high and rising. But that is not the case now and deflation remains the main threat, not inflation.
Of course none of these are an issue for the RBA as it still has plenty of scope to cut interest rates if needed.
Ideally, central banks should be getting more help from governments in terms of fiscal stimulus and supply side reforms but there are all sorts of constraints around this.
<h2>Implications for investors?</h2>
There are a number of implications for investors. First, while the worst may be over in terms of commodity price falls so the threat from deflation may be receding globally, the risk remains thanks to spare capacity and low wages growth, so low interest rates will remain in place for some time. While the Fed may continue down its path of gradual rate hikes, elsewhere rates are likely to stay low and, in Australia, fall further. Australian term deposit rates at around 2% are at their lowest since the early 1950s. So don’t expect great returns from them.
Second, given the absence of significant monetary tightening, a 1994-style bond crash remains as distant as ever. The most likely outcome is just low returns from government bonds.
Third, the low interest rate environment means the chase for yield is likely to continue supporting commercial property, infrastructure and shares offering sustainable high dividends.
Finally, as can be seen in the next chart, low inflation is generally good for shares as it allows shares to trade on higher price to earnings multiples. But it would be preferable not to see low inflation slip into deflation as this could be bad for shares given it tends to go with poor growth and profits and as a result shares trade on lower PEs. The same would apply to assets like commercial property and infrastructure.
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<div class="article-body"><a href="/images/2016/05/31/chart-3.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<img src="/images/2016/05/31/chart-3.png" alt=""> Source: Global Financial Data, Bloomberg, AMP Capital
So, combined with the social damage that a bout of debt deflation could cause, I would much prefer to see central banks continue to do all they can to avoid deflation.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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RBA rate cuts, inflation targets, deflation and are central banks out of ammo? AMP Capital's Shane Oliver

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A private Australian syndicate is poised to resurrect the Hinchinbrook Harbour over the next decade.
The revival is expected to cost around $450 million but economic modelling forecasts more than $1 billion will be pumped into the Cassowary Coast region with its reignited tourism.
The Passage Holdings are the syndicate behind the development which includes a restoration of the Cyclone Yasi-ravaged marina, 600 additional residences, hotel, family resort, water theme park, international fishing village, 300-site motorhome park, campgrounds and backpacker accomodation.
MacroPlan Dimasi undertook an economic benefit analysis which showed the project's 10 year construction phase would generate $400 million in direct economic activity and a further $654 million indirectly.
The assessment suggests that the additional accommodation capacity, enhanced entertainment, recreation and general tourism amenity and infrastructure established throughout the development, will support and contribute to ongoing growth in visitation for the region.
Hinchinbrook Harbour will deliver around 90 full-time jobs onsite and 180 jobs indirectly each year during construction.
On completion, the community will support a 430 strong permanent workforce comprising retail, hospitality and office positions.
The completed Harbour would generate 420,000 visitor nights each year for the local industry.
Hinchinbrook Harbour sales and marketing agent Bruce Goddard, of Place Projects, said there had been a significant decline in visitor nights in the region, in part because of the effects of Cyclone Yasi and a post-GFC downturn in tourism.
“This redevelopment is a catalyst for wider economic stimulation and will see the region return to its pre-Yasi halcyon days,” he said.
“Hinchinbrook Harbour will deliver the tourism amenity and capacity required to enhance the overall regional offer.”
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Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

Editor's Picks

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Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News