South East Queensland developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a>’s entry into the Gold Coast apartment market has progressed from pipeline to market, with its Chevron Island project Bronze on Chevron now formally available to purchase ahead of a planned 2029 completion.

The 119-apartment development on Mawarra Street marks the Brisbane-headquartered builder-developer’s first residential play in the Gold Coast, following its expansion south from Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> comprises a mix of two-, three- and four-bedroom residences, with pricing starting from just over $1.5 million. The project is being delivered under Gardner Vaughan’s fully integrated model, with the group acting as both developer and builder, a structure it has consistently applied across its South East Queensland portfolio.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367182]

Architecture has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jeremy-ferrier-landscape-design">Jeremy Ferrier</a>. The building presents as a single-tower scheme, with a focus on maximising outlook across both the Surfers Paradise skyline and the Nerang River.

Apartments have been planned with open-plan living zones extending to generous balconies, a response to the site’s dual-aspect positioning between river and ocean. Interiors follow a restrained coastal palette, with two colour schemes offered, and an emphasis on natural light and cross-ventilation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367181]

Resident amenity is concentrated across more than 1,250 sqm and includes a resort-style pool, gym, yoga lawn and rooftop entertaining areas. A function space with catering facilities forms part of the upper-level offering, alongside north- and south-facing outdoor areas.

Ground level will incorporate two retail tenancies, intended to extend the existing village character of the surrounding streets.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367200]

The project sits within walking distance of Thomas Drive’s established dining strip, while maintaining proximity to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Surfers Paradise</a> beach and broader Gold Coast amenity. The location, positioned on Chevron Island between the river and coastline, has increasingly attracted mid- to high-density development in recent years as the precinct evolves beyond its low-rise origins.

Gardner Vaughan’s move into the Gold Coast was first signalled in 2025, with the group identifying the region as a natural extension of its operations. Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge described the expansion as both “strategic and natural”, citing demand for well-designed apartments in lifestyle-driven markets.

Construction is expected to complete in early 2029.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]

Joel Robinson

Gardner Vaughan brings Bronze on Chevron to market as Gold Coast debut

One of the penthouses at Lily Lane, the latest stage of Carrington Place by Ellipse Property, has set a new local apartment price record.

The four-bedroom residence, purchased by a local downsizer, sold for $5.75 million—around 75 per cent higher than the previous record of $3.3 million.

Over 40 per cent of the first release of apartments at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lily-lane-at-carrington-place-castle-hill-32-carrington-road-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Lily Lane</a> have already been snapped up just six weeks since it launched to the market.

&nbsp;

Located at 32 Carrington Road, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/castle-hill-nsw-2154">Castle Hill</a> and designed by award-winning architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ptw">PTW</a>, Lily Lane is directly opposite the Hills Showground Metro station. It offers a total 213 units over two 12-storey towers - a mix of 67 one-bedroom, 100 two-bedroom and 46 three-bedroom apartments - with a ground-floor retail offering.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=368352]

Blake Schulze, National Director – Residential at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/colliers">Colliers</a>, says around 44 per cent of buyers are&nbsp;owner occupiers, with 35 per cent being investors and 21 per cent first homebuyers.

“Developments of this calibre are very rare in the Hills District, and Lily Lane’s sales success demonstrates the depth of demand for over-sized apartments that genuinely compete with freestanding homes," Schulze says.

"We are seeing particular demand from downsizers who want to remain in the area but transition into spacious, high-quality apartment living."

On the penthouse sale, it says it shows buyers&nbsp;are prepared to pay a premium for scale, quality, and direct access to the Metro.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=368351]

One-bedroom apartments are sized from 50-72 sqm with prices starting at $745,000, while two-bedrooms are priced from $990,000 with sizes from 75 to 132 square metres. Three-bedroom floorplans are sized between 97 and 182 sqm,, with prices starting at $1,395,000.&nbsp;

The three remaining penthouses, spanning up to 262 sqm, are priced from $2.9 million.

Over 75 per cent of apartments include dedicated studies, multipurpose rooms or family rooms, with select layouts offering walk-in pantries and laundries. Apartments are appointed with premium Miele appliances including ovens, washing machines, dryers, gas cooktops and dishwashers, while larger residences also incorporate integrated Miele microwaves, Fisher &amp; Paykel integrated refrigerators and five-burner Miele cooktops.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=360285]

Lily Lane will be constructed by award-winning iCIRT-rated builder <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/decode">Decode Group</a>, with construction to commence in mid-2026 and expected to complete early 2029.

Carrington Place comprises more than 800 apartments and is being delivered across multiple stages, with completion expected in 2032. Integrated with neighbouring bushland, the project will feature over 20,000 sq, of outdoor recreational area, including a one-kilometre boardwalk to Fred Caterson Reserve.&nbsp;

The Hills Showground Metro Station is just a two-minute walk away, offering fast connectivity to Sydney’s CBD, North Sydney, Chatswood, Macquarie Park and Norwest Business Park.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151821]

Ellipse sets Castle Hill apartment record with $5.75 million Lily Lane penthouse sale

Fresh off completing its Delano Crows Nest development, Lindsay Bennelong has lodged plans for its next project, this time turning its attention to the beach.

The developer, founded by Clarendon Homes founder Peter Campbell, is proposing a 37-apartment scheme at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-25-ashburner-street-manly-nsw-2095">17-25 Ashburner Street</a>, Manly, positioned between the southern end of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/manly-nsw-2095">Manly</a> Beach and East Manly Cove.

Lindsay Bennelong called on local architecture firm Platform Architects to design the new building, given their success on The Finn, Lindsay Bennelong's current luxury apartment project on North Steyne.&nbsp;

According to the Design Verification Statement by Bridie Gough of Platform Architects, the proposal “relates to the current context but also the desired future character of taller buildings suitable to the new planning controls.”

The site has been identified as a Low to Mid-Rise Housing (LMR) location, given its position within 400 metres of the Manly Town Centre E1 Business Zone. The LMR controls are intended to unlock additional housing supply in well-located areas close to public transport, allowing developers to seek increased height limits to support greater density.

“The proposal seeks to provide this increased level of housing whilst being respectful of some of the smaller scale buildings also nearby,” the statement reads.

Lindsay Bennelong Development Director Leigh Manser said the project has been carefully aligned with the intent of the LMR controls. The proposal will significantly increase housing yield on the site, replacing four houses and 10 apartments, comprising 25 bedrooms, with 37 new apartments delivering a total of 94 bedrooms.

“Sydney is in a severe undersupply, and delivering more dwellings and more bedrooms than what currently exists is exactly what the LMR policy is designed to activate,” Manser said, noting that nine of the apartments will be allocated as affordable housing for frontline workers.

“We have already commenced discussions with our community housing provider to determine the rental levels that frontline workers can realistically afford in this location,” he said. “These will need to sit well below the standard affordable housing benchmark of 20 per cent below market rent, and that has been factored into our feasibility and pricing.”

<img alt="Manly" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ad03000f-19f9-48b4-b27d-e85ca800a1da" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%208.41.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=a.txHwCZgbCInlQ6QXbIrI.umvW1T.r8" />

The design of the building incorporates a wave-like indentation running through the façade, referencing the nearby coastline and anchoring the building within its local context.

The&nbsp;Design Verification Statement says careful consideration has been given to the articulation of the building, ensuring the bulk is broken down to a more human scale through a defined four-storey podium."

The scheme includes a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments.

“The design ensures a high level of amenity, with apartments offering generous private open space, many with expansive views, and all with comfortable proportions."

<img alt="Bennelong" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6a7f2812-72a1-4959-84b0-997e8cd88aed" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%2010.15.50%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=6iMxU3MkXmHVHAoNhYBjnqgka8CUZNbk" />

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lindsay-bennelong-developments">Lindsay Bennelong</a>&nbsp;is currently developing Finn Manly, just three full-floor luxury apartments on North Steyne. They recently welcomed residents to its 81-unit Delano Crows Nest development, a&nbsp;carefully scaled infill project designed to bridge&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/crows-nest-nsw-2065">Crows Nest</a>’s lively village centre with its surrounding heritage streets.

Designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ajc-architects">AJC Architects</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/delano-crows-nest-27-57-falcon-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Delano</a>&nbsp;is arranged across three low-rise buildings, incorporating a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom apartments alongside a limited number of townhomes addressing Hayberry Lane. The architectural approach draws on the area’s Art Deco lineage, reinterpreted through contemporary detailing and framed by landscaped communal gardens.

The developer also has a development site in Maroubra.

First look: Lindsay Bennelong's new Manly apartment development revealed

Fifty-nine residences across 37 levels. No more than two per floor. With 80 per cent now sold, what remains at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/madeline-by-mosaic-broadbeach-22-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">Madeline by Mosaic</a> is a short list.

Madeline was always conceived at a scale that sits outside the normal register of Gold Coast apartment living. The residences are half- and full-floor configurations, with the largest spanning more than 400 sqm, dimensions that place them closer to the penthouse end of the market regardless of where they sit in the building.

That scale is the organising principle of everything else: how the floorplans are laid out, how the materials read, how the connection between inside and outside works.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=355941]

The interiors were developed in collaboration with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser &amp; Partners</a>, the architecture practice&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mosaic-property-group">Mosaic</a> brought in as design partner for the first time on this project. The palette runs to natural stone, textured timbers, and soft metallics, materials chosen as much for their tactile quality as their appearance.

Light cleverly shifts across surfaces through the day, and the design is explicit about wanting that to be noticed. Full-height glazing runs across the primary living areas, and where the building faces east toward the ocean, those walls of glass are doing real work: framing a view corridor that the site's position directly opposite Broadbeach State School's playing fields keeps permanently open.

That outlook is the site's most consequential asset. In a suburb where new towers continue to rise, a protected view line is genuinely rare, and the Mary Avenue address secures it. Residents at Madeline will look out over open parkland rather than the rear of another building, a distinction that becomes more meaningful with each new development approved nearby.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=355939]

The private outdoor spaces are sized to match the residences themselves. Terraces on the upper levels frame uninterrupted ocean panoramas, and the planning ensures that living areas extend into those outdoor zones rather than treating them as separate attachments. The flow between the two is part of the design intent, not an afterthought.

Inside, the finish specification reflects the same approach. Rich stone benchtops, warm timber joinery, bespoke hardware, each element specified to hold up over time rather than read as a moment in a particular trend cycle.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=3409]

Beyond the residences, the amenity offering extends that register. A lap pool and sun deck anchor the outdoor space, alongside a magnesium pool, cold plunge, steam room, and sauna.

A commercial-grade gymnasium, residents' lounge, library, and boardroom round out a programme that functions more like a private members club than a standard building amenity floor.

Construction has commenced under Mosaic's in-house building arm, with completion scheduled for late 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150135]

Madeline by Mosaic delivers penthouse-level living across every apartment

Developer Fortezza Group is the latest to take its new apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-belvedere-5-7-church-street-nelson-bay-nsw-2315">The Belvedere in Nelson Bay</a>, to the NSW Government.

Fortezza, predominantly a South East Queensland developer, is the latest to apply for State Significant Development&nbsp; status through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority, a pathway becoming favoured by developers to speed up the approval process.

They are planning 57 two- and three-bedroom apartments across 5-7 Church Street and 42 Donald Street, near d'Albora Nelson Bay Marina. The diverse apartment mix has sizes from just over 80 sqm to the largest three-bedroom penthouses that reach nearly 200 sqm.

<img alt="Fortezza" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="090360e1-66d7-43ad-b686-aba81f173bf2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-29%20at%2010.22.40%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=DMqF96eBZolqSAAAcugX0l66ueWng66m" />

Fortezza calls the project a "piece of Istria in Nelson Bay,"&nbsp;referring to the largest peninsula in the Adriatic Sea, shared by Croatia (90%), Slovenia, and Italy, which is known for its Roman history, Venetian-style coastal towns and inland hilltop villages.

They say the The Belvedere is strategically positioned at the apex of Nelson Bay, offering unrivalled views of the ocean, the bay and captivating topography of the area.

"Our commitment to maintaining the integrity of every view and sight line has been relentless," Fortezza Group says.

"Through extensive modelling and analysis, we ensure that each apartment enjoys the natural beauty of Nelson Bay, regardless of future developments. Each design element is carefully curated to harmonise with our European heritage, drawing profound inspiration from the Roman architectural marvels in Istria. The arches, the cascades of greenery and the stonework that define our project pay homage to the structures that once exemplified Roman grandeur."

Residents will have access to a pool, communal green spaces, an office and a coffee shop.

First look: Fortezza Group takes The Belvedere, Nelson Bay apartment development, to NSW Government

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
Plummeting first-home buyer numbers have raised fresh questions about recently introduced first-home buyer grant schemes on offer in NSW as well as raise issues about current housing affordability. 
The number of loans to first-home buyers in December 2012 fell to 14.9% according to ABS figures, the fourth consecutive month that this segment of the market has declined.
This a 37% decline on figures from a year ago when first-home buyers accounted for more than one in five new home loans (21.1%).
This was the weakest proportion of first-home buyers in the housing market since June 2004 and just two percentage points off the record low of 12.8% in March 2004 for ABS figures going back to July 1991.
The decline suggests that the new first-home owner grants in Queensland and NSW, which provide generous handouts of $15,000 – but only for those who buy or build new homes – have missed the mark and are as claimed by the likes of Ray White chairman Brian White nothing more than a builder or developer incentive.
In addition they suggest housing remains unaffordable or undesirable for most prospective first-home buyers with low mortgage rates and a decline in capital city house prices over the last few years failing to spur this segment of the market in a meaningful way.
The fall was sharpest in NSW, where there was a 3.2% decline as well as a smaller 0.8% drop in Queensland and a 1.9% decline in WA. 
“The state detail was something of a surprise,” notes Westpac, who called the December figures “another weak reading” for first-home buyer activity. 
“We had expected unwinding first-home buyer demand in NSW (from an earlier bring-forward relating to state government changes) to have run its course by December with weakness to instead centre on Victoria where stamp duty concessions coming in from January 1 would have encouraged many FHBs to delay purchases. 
“Instead, the sharp slide in NSW continued (–3.2%) with Victoria posting a slight rise (+0.3% for the month). 
Westpac estimates that approvals in this segment were down another 5.7% in December on a seasonally- adjusted basis.  
First-home buyer numbers peaked in May 2009 following of the doubling of the first-home owners grant to $14,000 for those buying existing homes and trebling it to $21,000 for those buy newly built homes in October 2008. 
First home buyers as percentage of home lending dating back to 1991 (ABS)
 
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="415"><tbody>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Month
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Number of FHB loans
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
% of new loans
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Size of loan ($)
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Dec-1991
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
5654
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
20.7
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
71.5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Dec-1992
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
7733
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
22.2
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
76.9
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Dec-1993
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
10139
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
22.4
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
83.0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Dec-1994
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
7789
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
21.5
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
90.3
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Dec-1995
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
7218
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
21.9
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
89.8
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Dec-1996
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
8427
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
23.0
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
99.2
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Dec-1997
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
8047
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
21.0
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
104.0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Dec-1998
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
8651
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
22.6
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
120.7
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Dec-1999
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
10264
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
22.0
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
134.7
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Dec-2000
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
9654
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
22.3
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
123.0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Dec-2001
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
12745
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
25.8
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
146.5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Dec-2002
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
7998
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
15.9
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
160.2
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Dec-2003
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
7618
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
13.3
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
185.2
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Mar-2004*
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
7083
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
12.8
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
191.5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Jun-2004**
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
7428
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
14.3
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
204.5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Dec-2004
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
8845
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
16.6
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
210.3
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Dec-2005
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
10811
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
18.8
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
217.1
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Dec-2006
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
10241
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
18.0
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
228.5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Dec-2007
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
11282
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
19.4
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
230.9
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Dec-2008
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
14142
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
27.2
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
271.3
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
May 2009***
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
18744
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
31.4
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
279.4
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Dec-2009
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
11793
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
23.5
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
293.3
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Dec-2010
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
8199
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
17.3
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
289.2
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Dec-2011
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
10264
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
21.1
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
285.1
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Jan-2012
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
8043
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
20.6
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
282.8
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Feb-2012
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
7360
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
17.4
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
279.8
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Mar-2012
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
7902
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
16.6
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
281.8
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Apr-2012
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
7077
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
17.0
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
282.5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
May-2012
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
9110
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
18.1
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
288.3
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Jun-2012
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
8415
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
18.5
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
292.0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Jul-2012
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
8760
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
19.2
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
291.2
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Aug-2012
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
8921
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
18.6
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
288.9
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Sep-2012
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
8391
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
19.3
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
289.2
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Oct-2012
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
9215
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
18.7
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
288.0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Nov-2012
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
7921
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
15.8
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
287.8
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
Dec-2012
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
6557
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
14.9
</td>
<td nowrap valign="bottom" width="104">
293.9
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Source: ABS
*Record lowest proportion of first-home buyers
**Previous lowest proportion of first homebuyers after December 2012
***Highest proportion of first-home buyers
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lschlesinger-FZcF9M3vE6

First-home buyers at lowest share of new home loans in more than eight years: historical data to 1991

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More evidence has emerged of the damaging impact that changes to first-home buyer grants in NSW and Queensland are having on home buyer sentiment.
First-home buyer (FHB) sentiment fell 12.8% according to the latest <a href="/news">Genworth</a> Homebuyer Confidence Index, driving a 5.1% fall in the overall index – its lowest level since 2008.
The bi-annual index, a measure of home buyer and would-be home buyer sentiment, fell from 98.4 to 93.4 over the six-month period while the first-home buyer sub-index fell from 98.5 to 85.9.
Click to enlarge
<a href="/images/stories/2013/03/genworthmarch27one.gif" rel="shadowbox" title="Click to enlarge"><img src="/images/stories/2013/03/genworthmarch27onethumb.gif"></a>
“Changes to incentives in New South Wales and Queensland states may be affecting FHB con?dence more broadly, with New South Wales having the lowest proportion of prospective FHBs who thought now was a good time to buy a home,” the report says.
“New South Wales and Queensland both saw a large fall in the number of FHBs in the market, according to ABS data, of 56% and 66% respectively between September 2012 and January 2013.”
In addition, mortgage stress among FHBs is rising with the report finding that 41% of recent first-home buyers are expecting difficulty with mortgage repayments over the coming year – up from 18% in September 2012. 
The fall in the overall index was primarily driven by a 42% increase in the proportion of borrowers who expect to experience mortgage stress over the next 12 months rising from 18% in September 2012 to 27% in March 2013.
“The sharp rise in the proportion of surveyed FHBs experiencing and anticipating hardship follows the removal of FHB incentives on established dwellings in New SouthWales and Queensland, which went into effect in October 2012.
“Amongst FHBs in Queensland, over-commitment/borrowing was cited as the main reason for expecting mortgage stress," says the report.
Bridget Sakr, chief commercial officer of Genworth, says the changes to government grants led to a bigger drop in first-home buyer confidence compared with the overall decline in the index.
The changes to the FHB grants impacted on the ability of FHBs to purchase the properties they want, Sakr told Property Observer.
She highlighted the findings of the report that fewer than one in four FHBs wanted to buy a new home.
Despite this sharp fall in FHB confidence, time to buy a home sentiment is still higher than it was a year ago, though it too fell from 54% of FHBs to 49% as of March 2013.
“FHBs still aspire to own a home, this has increased from last year, but most want an established home in an area they want to live,” Sakr says.
“The grant removals have hindered them from being able to do that.”
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FHB grant changes drive home buyer confidence to lowest level since 2008: Genworth

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Last week I was assisting a client with her dual occupancy construction finance. We have Development Application (DA) and Construction Certificate (CC) consents and the builder has issued their Building Contract. The bank now has all the documentation required to unconditionally approve her construction finance.
They had conditionally approved her loan a few weeks earlier after verifying income and assessing serviceability and all the other stuff they do after you sign a mountain of loan docs. The next step was for the bank to value the two dwellings and then they could finalise the construction loan.
Her bank did an "As if Complete" valuation. This is also known as a Tentative on Completion valuation. It's when the bank value the project before it's constructed but based on how they think it will be completed.  lf it's more than one dwelling - a dual occupancy or multi unit project - they look for a value of the property '"in one line". This means not subdivided. If the bank had to sell the dwellings all on the original title, what would they get for them?
The number one, massive, biggest, fattest, most frustrating issue with this type of valuation  is that there are generally NO sales references. Who in their right mind would sell in one line if given the choice of making far more profit by subdividing?
When there are no sales references in one line, it is up to the valuer to determine how they discount the end values if the dwellings were on their own title.  Valuers must take legal responsibility for their opinion. The valuer needs to cover themselves in the instance that the bank may need to fire sell the properties together on one title of land.
The process of subdivision after building works are complete, whilst not complicated, can take a number of months to get to the registration stage. Yet the builder's final payment is due on completion of construction.
The Australian Property Institute publish a very interesting document on valuation standards. It's 395 pages long. That's how complicated the valuation process can be.  It covers valuations for different purposes such as market, mortgage and loan security, rating and taxing, for compulsory acquisitions, for assessing rental value, for property plant and material, for insurance purposes and to use in financial reports. 
In this instance due to no direct sales the valuer will possibly use a gross realisation of the dwellings assuming they are subdivided and on separate titles and then deduct a profit and risk factor, holding and selling costs to arrive at their valuation figure. 
They may also take into consideration a capitalisation of the gross income and use an acceptable market capitalisation rate or cap rate. 
In my opinion, without actual sales references of properties sold in one line, the valuer will be super conservative in their calculations and hence, a low On Completion valuation may be received. This is one of the perils of construction finance and so a buffer of cash should be put aside in case the construction loan requires supplementing. 
Applying for and then finally receiving approval of, construction finance can be one of the most lengthy phases of a development project. It can take longer than obtaining the DA consent and in some cases, has taken longer than the construction phase itself!  So be careful to allow, not only enough extra funds, but also time for your construction finance.
Jo Chivers is chief executive officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a>.
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jochivers-wq5Bp59R5a

The complicated process of valuation: Jo Chivers

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Friday last week encapsulated all that’s wrong in the reporting of real estate in Australia. “Rental prices continue to soar” screamed one headline, while “Rental prices in Australia are going backwards” shouted another. 
How did different media outlets come to such different conclusions? One published the press release on The Domain Rental Report and the other published the handout from the CoreLogic Rental Index. 
As is so often the case, the statistics from one research source are different from those on the same subject from a competing source. Newspapers and other forms of media report each in isolation, often running the press release pretty much verbatim, without applying any journalistic oversight. 
No one looks at the material on the one subject from all sources and analyses it to make some sense of it for readers. 
Sometimes the numbers from two different sources aren’t that different. It’s just that one research entity will choose to place a negative slant on the figures and media will go with that, while another researcher will emphasise the positive.
The lack of genuine journalism on these matters is quite alarming. The content and tone of the press release is re-cycled to the public as news.
The result is confusion and misinformation, the curse of real estate consumers trying to figure out what’s really going on and make good decisions on investment.
So what can we make of the national rental data published by two major sources on the same day recently?
The reality is that they’re not actually so different. One chose to take a negative stance and the other decided to paint a brighter picture.
Here’s where Domain agrees with CoreLogic:
<ul>
<li>Both see rents going seriously backwards in Darwin. The annual decline in rents is in double digits, according to both sources.</li>
<li>Rents in Perth are still falling, though not as much as in Darwin, according to both.</li>
<li>Both sources see only moderate growth in rents in Sydney.</li>
<li>Both sources see minor growth in Melbourne, around 2-3 percent in annual terms.</li>
</ul>
And here’s where they don’t agree.
<ul>
<li>Domain records 2-3 percent growth in Brisbane, but CoreLogic reports a marginal fall.</li>
<li>Domain sees minor growth in Adelaide, but CoreLogic has rents down 1 percent annually.</li>
<li>CoreLogic reports essentially no change in Hobart, but Domain reports a 6 percent annual rise in house rents and a 2 percent rise in apartment rents.</li>
<li>CoreLogic records a 1.2 percent rise in its Canberra Rental Index but Domain sees bigger increases in rents in the capital.</li>
</ul>
It basically comes down to this: while there are a number of similarities, Domain’s figures overall are more positive than CoreLogic’s and it chose to take an optimistic outlet.
“Rents in most capital cities continue to rise, with falling vacancy rates indicating an ongoing shortage of rental properties,” said Domain chief economist Andrew Wilson.
“Despite the recent influx of home building, we can expect to see upward pressure on both houses and unit rents in most capital cities continuing in the foreseeable future.” 
But the CoreLogic analysis said the “annual capital city rental change is in decline and is now the lowest since 1996”.
My take on all this, having observed the quarterly rental data coming from all the usual suspects over the past 2-3 years, is that capital city rental growth has been consistently low over that period. While there are occasional exceptions, the capital cities have failed to deliver strong growth in rentals for years – and, in the case of Perth and Darwin, rents have dropped substantially.
Domain has chosen to be upbeat on its latest figures, but really they show very little in the way of strong, meaningful growth in rents.
It provides further evidence that the “housing shortage crisis” consistently claimed by the developer lobby is another of real estate’s enduring myths.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Housing shortage crisis an enduring myth: Terry Ryder

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The common perception of first-home buyers as 20-somethings may need to be reconsidered, with a new survey showing a declining trend in first-home buyers aged 29 and under and a rising proportion of buyers aged 40 and over.
A Mortgage Choice online survey of 1,000 Australians who plan to buy their first home in the next two years found that the greatest proportion of first-home buyers (41%) are aged between 30 and 39, compared with 39% aged 18 to 29.
The proportion of prospective first-home buyers aged 40 and over was 20%, or one in five.
These results build on earlier online polls that show a trend of first-home buyers choosing to purchase when they are older and a marked decline in younger buyers.
The Mortgage Choice 2011 recent first-home owner survey found that the majority of first-home buyers (55%) were aged between 18 and 29, this itself a fall from a 2010 survey when 63% of respondents were in this age bracket.
The 2011 survey also found that 34% of recent first-home buyers were aged between 30 and 39, and only 11% were aged 40 and over.
Mortgage Choice spokesperson Belinda Williamson says the results of the survey show that “more first-home buyers are saving for longer and purchasing later in life, perhaps when they are in a better financial position”.
Other findings of the 2012 survey tie in with the shift towards older first-home buyers, with the average period to save for a deposit increasing from 1.8 years in the 2011 survey to two years in 2012.
It also found that job security concerns have increased notably since 2011, with 18% of 2012 respondents claiming it to be their biggest concern, compared with 11% last year.
Conversely, fewer buyers are concerned about rising house prices (22% this year compared with 31% in 2011) and even fewer are concerned about the impact of interest rates on their ability to purchase their first home (8% this year compared with 14% in 2011).
“While many of the economic indicators such as rate cuts, lower house prices and improved affordability might suggest now is a good time to buy, people are still nervous about their ability to sustain employment,” says Williamson.
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First-home buyers increasingly ageing into their 30s and one in five even aged 40 and over: Mortgage Choice 

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While it’s still early days, the latest housing finance figures published by both the ABS and mortgage broker AFG suggest NSW and Queensland are discouraging many first-home buyers after doubling state handouts last year, but only if they buy or build a new home, while offering nothing for those that buy an existing property.
The most up-to-date mortgage figures are provided by aggregator AFG, which claims to write one in every 10 home loans in Australia through its network of affiliated mortgage brokers.
AFG reports a healthy 15% rise in the volume of mortgages arranged by brokers over 2012 from $28 billion to $32 billion, but says the average long term share of home loans arranged for first-home buyers, usually between 12% and 15%, collapsed to just 4.2% in NSW and 4.5% in Queensland during the last two months of 2012, after the $7,000 first-home buyers grants were withdrawn in both states in favour of the $15,000 boost for new homes only.
In comparison, investors dominated the mortgage market in these two states, comprising 46.3% and 35.9% of all home loans respectively.
Official ABS data is only up until November, so it is difficult to say a trend is emerging, but the figures certainly suggest first-home buyers have not been swayed to consider a new house or apartment over an existing property.
The ABS records that the number of first-home buyer loans arranged in NSW fell from 2,088 in October to 1,383 November, while in Queensland first-home buyer loan numbers fell from 2,116 in October to 1,417 in November - in both states a monthly drop of 33%.
Furthermore, just 793 first-home buyers took advantage of the revised NSW first-home owners' grant in December last year, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/news/nsw-first-home-buyer-numbers-fell-to-20-year-lows-in-late-2012/2013011458763?utm_source=po&amp;utm_medium=aida&amp;utm_campaign=news">the lowest take-up in 20 years</a> with the NSW state opposition claiming that Barry O'Farrell's decision to dump first-home buyer grants and stamp duty exemptions have been "nothing short of devastating for young people trying to buy their first home".
Indeed, first-home buyer changes are particularly tough on those in NSW that wish to buy an existing property.
Since October 1, the NSW state grant has been lifted from $7,000 to $15,000 for new homes valued up to $650,000, while a maximum stamp duty exemption of $20,240 is also available for new homes worth up to $550,000.<a style="font-size: 0.8em;" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/administrator/index.php?option=com_flexicontent&amp;view=item&amp;cid=58777#">Apply</a>
First-home buyers that purchase an existing home get nothing.
In Queensland, since September 11, a $15,000 first-home owner construction grant (FHOCG) has been available for new property bought or built at a value under $750,000, but all first-home buyers also pay no duty on purchases up to $500,000, with a phasing-out rebate applicable for values up to $600,000.
The doubling of the NSW first-home buyer grant was announced in mid-June, but only came into effect three-and-half months later, with Property Observer reporting on the conundrum it created for both <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/residential/nsw-budgets-needlessly-complex-artificial-deadlines-have-short-term-and-long-term-consequences-for-residential-property/2012061455119">first-home buyers and investors</a> over this interim period.
Queensland government introduced its construction grant with immediate effect from September 11, but gave first-home buyers up until October 11 to finalise contracts.
Contrast this with Victoria, which still offers a $7,000 first-home buyer loan for both new and existing home purchases (and increased stamp duty concessions from 20% to 30% on January 1) and first-home buyer loan numbers were little changed over the month, falling marginally from 2,545 to 2,407.
Ray White chairman Brian White labelled the new first-home buyer polices as “no longer a first-home buyers but a builders incentive” and a "deceit", saying they distorted the market, but not in a healthy way.
The latest data suggests he could be right.
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First-home buyer policies failing in NSW and Queensland

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Five years ago, 30% of new dwellings constructed were units and townhouses. Since 2009, the market-share of attached dwellings has risen steadily, reaching 39% last year.
And the latest building approval figures suggest units now comprise 43% of new dwellings.
According to research from Bankwest, demand for medium-density housing has reached the highest level on record.
The Bankwest Housing Density Report revealed that 43% of new home approvals are medium-density dwellings. This is up from the 39% national average in the previous year.
Not surprisingly, capital cities account for 87% of medium-density approvals in the past 12 months. In five cities, units and townhouses comprised more than half of total dwelling approvals – including 68% in Sydney, Canberra and Darwin, as well as 55% in Melbourne and 53% in Brisbane.
Partly this is about affordability. In Sydney, the median unit price is $221,000 less than the median house price. In Melbourne the difference is $138,000, while in Darwin it’s $165,000.
But it’s more to do with lifestyle choices. Busy lives and the value people place on their leisure time points many buyers to a life-maintenance dwelling that doesn’t have gardens to weed and lawns to mow.
For those who want to be close to the inner city at a reasonable price, an apartment is the favoured option.
But buyers need to be careful. Several of our inner-city unit markets are over-supplied and it’s likely to get worse.
<blockquote>
But buyers need to be careful. Several of our inner-city unit markets are over-supplied and it’s likely to get worse.
</blockquote>
Melbourne already has huge vacancies (up to 10% in some near-city markets) and, according to PRDnationwide research, there are 88 large-scale unit projects under way or proposed.
Brisbane has high vacancies (6% in the CBD and approaching those levels in several inner-city suburbs) and has 69 large unit developments coming up. Perth has high vacancies as well, though the number of new projects in the pipeline is relatively small, with 13 new ones identified by PRDnationwide.
Sydney, to date, has not developed an over-supply and there are relatively few projects in the pipeline: 27 new ones under way or proposed.
It’s in Sydney that the trend towards medium-density living is most noticeable. Several of Sydney’s growth markets are apartment markets, including the inner-city areas Chippendale, Darlinghurst and Woolloomooloo - and the City of Canterbury, which includes suburbs such as Campsie, Lakemba and Roselands, where units are affordable.
Rising demand for apartments as a dwelling choice has also challenged the old paradigm that houses on land show better capital growth than units. Apartment markets are increasingly recording growth rates comparable to, and in some cases better than, houses.
But the surplus syndrome means buyers need to be choosy and do plenty of research into vacancy rates and building approval levels before committing.
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Units continue to challenge houses as the dwelling of choice

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For the first time in 35 years, a Hamilton Hill home in Brisbane is being offered up for auction this week, having last sold for $60,000 in 1979.
The property, <a href="https://www.eplace.com.au/property.cfm?propertyID=2536483&amp;realestate=24_Hillside_Crescent_Hamilton_QLD_4007" target="_blank">24 Hillside Crescent</a>, sits on 506 square metres with no sales prior to its last sale. The house, built in the mid-to-late 1930s by the Queensland timber merchant W.S. Brett was designed for the merchant himself. At the time, it was covered by The Courier-Mail as a significant property.
The three-bedroom, two-bathroom 80 year old home retains a number of its historical features, including leadlight awning doors, polished cedar timber floors and high decorative ceilings.
Marketing the home is Sherrie Storor of Place, who said that this was a rare opportunity.
“This house occupies an elevated position on Hamilton Hill and has a wide frontage with panoramic sweeps down both reaches of the Brisbane River and onto the city skyline,” said Storor.
“The home was designed to co-exist with its amazing position, with the floor plan oriented to take full advantage of the amazing Brisbane scenery from nearly every room.”
It has formal and informal living areas, patios, an in-ground Jacuzzi and a terrace.
It is looking for buyers who are open to restoring the home, with renovations required on the home.
“There is ample scope to renovate this home and restore its historic beauty while adding instant value,” she said.
There has already been substantial interest from buyers, and the expectation is for some fierce bidding later on today.
“We’re confident the property will sell – in fact, we are under instructions from the vendor that the property must be sold,” she said.
The auction will take place on Thursday at 6.30pm at the Place head office in East Brisbane.
RP Data's 'land value' section from June last year puts the price at $1,150,000.
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jduke-EHk3XBmHkn

Historic Brisbane, Hamilton Hill home up for auction

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The following comment echoes a dilemma of many potential first home buyers in Australia: 
“I am in late 20s, early 30s, $150,000 household income, $200,000 in savings - what should I do? Do I buy a property and risk my cash on an asset which is said to fall in value, or do I rent and invest my money into shares?”
The numbers may differ from person to person but the concern is the same.
I dealt with the issue of property prices in Australia and <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/residential/australian-property-prices-in-2014-and-beyond-a-peek-into-the-future/2014013167457" target="_blank">what will happen in the future</a>, so instead I would like to focus on the issue of confidence.
If we analyse Australia's current economic situation objectively, we have a <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/residential/a-roof-over-your-head-or-the-biggest-investment-you-ll-ever-make-how-should-we-treat-residential-property/2014020967655" target="_blank">six decades long history of strong growth in property prices</a>, historically low interest rates, a low unemployment level and an economic growth rate which is the envy of other developed nations. Also, it is relatively easier to finance property purchases nowadays than it was 20 years ago. In addition, there are ample examples of research demonstrating that residential property in Australia is <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/documents/resources/ASX_Report_2013.pdf" target="_blank">potentially the best investment class over the long-term</a>.
Yet, the fear of losing money, “because property prices are doomed to fall” and a pessimistic outlook are paralysing many to the extent that they are incapable of making a decision to buy a property.
Where does this fear come from? Why are we the biggest pessimists in the world despite surviving the global financial crisis quite well so far? We used to have severe recessions and other economic calamities before so, what’s different now? 
Let me digress for a moment and reflect on the “old times”, when things were viewed from another perspective.
How things used to be
Back then in the 1970s, 1980s or even 1990s, there was no talk about a possibility of property prices falling. The idea was to line up for a loan at the first opportunity and to get your first home as soon as you got your first full time job. It didn’t matter that the property had to be in a location on the city outskirts – you were buying what you could afford, and not your ultimate lifestyle.
The logic was that you pay your first property off as quickly as you can and then upgrade to something better and closer to city centre. Then do it again. And again. So that in the period of 15 to 20 years you could end up with something to enjoy for the rest of your life and which suited your lifestyle.
Your grandparents did it that way. Your parents did it that way. Everyone just followed the same routine. No questions asked. Everybody knew you cannot go wrong following this recipe.
I am generalising but it conveys the overall attitude of an older generation of Australians towards residential real estate. Now, let’s fast forward to present times.
How things are now
Parents and grandparents are no longer the role models and the primary source of wisdom. There is a new paradigm now.
Younger generations now take advice from media manufactured, faceless avatars and do-gooders on the Internet who create, either knowingly or unintentionally, the environment of fear, uncertainty and general misinformation.
This is not a criticism of a younger generation – quite the opposite. It is extremely difficult for anybody to make a decision with full confidence in such circumstances. The problem is more universal and relates to all generations living in present times. However, those of older age have those big decisions well and truly behind them while younger people have to face them now or in the near future.
The causes
It could be argued that it is the symptom of modern times that we are so overloaded with everyday tasks that are unable to find time to learn, discuss concepts and ideas with peers and elders we respect, analyse information and then make conscious decisions. Consequently, everything needs to be served on a plate for easy consumption where there is no need to exercise the brain too much.
As an example, we “do research” by skimming through news headlines and the more extreme and negative they are, the more attention they are likely to attract. We express our approval, opinions, or even protest, by clicking “Like”. And we tend to make only binary decisions: “Yes/No”, “Good/Bad”, etc. It seems there is very little time to ponder on “what if…” scenarios.
That is why media (traditional and social) and the internet in general have such a profound influence on what we think and do – they deliver snippets of information in chunks we are able to process without much effort.
The ease of dissemination of information in the digital age means there is a room for all sorts of views but what makes into a wider circulation is controversy and extreme cases.
So, we hear and read: “Property prices to fall 20%”, scratch that, 40% sounds more dramatic! But no one bothers to answer a fundamental question: "…and then what?"
Will they stay low or rebound? Is it likely that government would not intervene and would not try to prevent such a disaster? If there is intervention, what could be the impact on prices? Does this prediction have any merits after all?
It could be argued that there would be too much thinking involved to get these answers and in the fast paced digital media world there is no time for that because of editorial deadlines. The main game is headlines that attract the audience - not necessary the real story behind them.
And nobody bothers with putting caveats on such predictions either – by the following year the public will not remember “current scares” since focus will move onto the next extreme set of predictions.
A big part of the problem is how we interpret information published in the media – instead of treating those claims as a starting point for further investigation we tend to jump to a quick conclusion: “I saw it on TV so it must be right.”
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It is rather rare that a balanced and objective view of the state of affairs reaches wider audience via popular media channels – there is no incentive to publish such information simply because there is nothing sensational about it.
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Therefore, we are probably as much to blame for what is happening as the media. That is, we do not demand in-depth analysis behind the story simply because we don’t have the time to digest it. We just assume that someone must have done it diligently to come up with the conclusion, so the headlines will do just fine.
It is rather rare that a balanced and objective view of the state of affairs reaches wider audience via popular media channels – there is no incentive to publish such information simply because there is nothing sensational about it. Balanced views simply do not attract enough audience.
The effect is that only simplistic, negative, very often contentious, views propagate - leading to a widespread misinformation, like: “Property prices will fall in Australia because they have fallen everywhere else”; “We have affordability crisis because of negative gearing and speculators”; “Foreigners are causing property prices to rise”. There are a tonne of those around.
It should therefore come as no surprise that a significant proportion of would be buyers is put off making a decision.
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Some unexpected consequences
There is a number of quite ironic consequences resulting from all that doom, gloom and misinformation about the property market in Australia.
Firstly, it makes us vulnerable to exploitation by unscrupulous spruikers. In particular, on one hand it all leads to a perception that “property ownership is a dumb idea” (whether for living in it or earning income from it), that “everybody is losing money” and “everything is going to collapse very shortly anyway”.
On the other, it creates a fertile ground for those who claim to have a “secret formula” to “make it all magically work for us” and “to make the taxman pay for everything” - if we only spend $10,000 on a seminar and instructional videos, and some more on personal coaching.
There are plenty of people who fall for a magic of big numbers and a prospect of becoming a property mogul - despite the fact that there are no secrets to making money with property, just clever marketing.
The second consequence is that it led to emergence of new industries with a sole purpose of helping people to buy into property – from online discussion forums, dedicated blogs and property search portals profiting from advertising, through those selling specialised reports, smartphone apps, DIY property investment books and seminars, to buyer advocates and mortgage brokers offering information, tools and services for a fee. And now even financial advisers are getting on-board with advice on investment in property via self-managed superannuation funds.
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The overload of information and assistance, rather than helping in making decisions, has a totally opposite consequence – that is, more information tends to paralyse us rather than aid in making those hard decisions.
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Yet, it seems that, for many, it is harder than ever to make a decision. The overload of information and assistance, rather than helping in making decisions, has a totally opposite consequence – that is, more information tends to paralyse us rather than aid in making those hard decisions.
Not to mention that everybody demands a fair compensation for their work so, that assistance can add quite substantially to the overall cost of buying, making us even more apprehensive about making the decision.
Not many of these services existed 20 odd years ago and information was not so easy accessible either. So, the bulk of advice and assistance was coming from parents, relatives and your local bank manager – all for free.
The trust that young people had in older generations is no longer as strong for the current generation of young people. Maybe this is also due to the fact that the elders also have become confused and no longer have as strong a conviction about the merits of purchasing a property as they used to have in the past.
This is unfortunate because that trust was crucial in providing moral and emotional support for young people getting into debt for the first time. And it helped to positively reinforce the decision.
The perception that nothing can go wrong because “everybody is doing it this way”, created by decades of success stories by people they knew personally, was also very empowering.
In other words, it appears that the whole support structure that helped in making tough decisions is significantly weakened, if not entirely collapsed. There is really nobody that can be trusted anymore since those who offer assistance are there only to gain something from us (i.e. either clicks, patronage or real money for a service). The notion of “impartial advice” is somehow compromised in those circumstances as one can never be certain of true intentions behind provided information and advice. We are really on our own with those big decisions.
Social considerations that cannot be ignored
Then there are also social pressures impacting on the decision whether to buy a property or not. In the 21st century fun, globetrotting, gadgets, extreme sports, celebrity status, etc. “symbols of good and joyful life” are valued much higher than debt on a property located somewhere on the city's outskirts. Committing to owning a property early in life would mean sacrifices (i.e. less of the fun things) and would undermine rather than enhance the status of individuals in the eyes of their peers. So, at young age the choice is easy – don’t buy.
By the time people are ready to settle and start a family (which happens much later in life than in the past) they have already got used to the convenience of living in the city but they are overwhelmed by the amount of money required to continue that lifestyle as a family unit (either renting or buying, which requires taking on a substantial debt). This is when the anxiety about the future really kicks in.
The fact that Australia has not really experience economic hardship since early 1990s means that many of younger people also do not know what to expect when the hard times do come, adding to the anxiety and multiplying the fear factor (ie. because of the unknown).
This is a point in life when headlines like “property prices are overvalued by 40%” or “there is housing affordability crisis in Australia” are becoming a drawcard for this demographic group because it helps them to cope with the anxiety by reinforcing the fact they are not alone in this predicament.
However, these are not the real reasons why they are unable to buy - it is all primarily about the mindset.
A simple solution
The reality is that things are never black and white as they are over-simplified by media for the purpose of easy consumption. What we mostly hear in the media are opinions and not indisputable facts based on evidence – even those expressed by experts.
So, this fear is not substantiated with a valid reason. It is just a consequence of not knowing what to believe in, as well as not having the adequate knowledge to objectively assess what others are purporting to be the “ultimate truth”.
The only way to overcome this paralysis it is to get to know the facts. And this requires making the effort of starting to think for yourself.
The bottom line is that one cannot outsource thinking because there is a big price to pay at a later date. 
End note
I did use many generalisations in this article to emphasise the important issues underpinning the problem but, of course, there are many exceptions, as current property sales statistics show. There are many first home buyers that are making the decision to buy right now.
It all boils down to a mental state of having a confidence in the decision you make. It requires knowledge and conviction that this knowledge is not tainted.
It takes effort and lots of thinking before you can get into that mental state. So, taking time to think should be as important as attending the gym or undertaking other routine activities of your daily life. Sorting out finances to buy a property is the easy part.
There are no right or wrong decisions. However, since there are consequences of each decision, there will be those decisions that one can live with and those that will be regretted until the end of one’s life.
The key is to be mentally prepared to bear those unpleasant consequences when you make a decision which produces an outcome that is not in your favour.
This is the only secret one really needs to know to make a decision whether to buy or not to buy a property at present time. Affordability has nothing to do with it - it is all about the confidence.
Arek Drozda is an independent analyst who has worked in the public and private sectors for over 20 years in business development, data analysis and in building geographic information systems.
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Crisis of confidence or crisis of affordability?

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I was fortunate enough to attend the SQM seminar last week as Louis Christopher – one of the most well respected voices in the real estate industry for his balanced assessment of market data – presented a state by state rundown of projected activity over 2014.
<a target="_blank" href="#https://www.sqmresearch.com.au/capitalcitiesreports.php">Louis predicts</a> Sydney’s established housing market will see a 15-20% ‘rapid rise’ over the course of 2014, highlighting the middle suburbs in particular to capture the overflow of demand, as inner city development constraints force consumers outwards.  
There’s been plenty of talk regarding housing affordability and the very real risk associated with an unsustainable boom in values, with some claiming – based in part on our low interest rate environment – that any mention of a concern is a mere myth.  
When asked from an audience member at the seminar if first home buyers were being crowded out of Sydney, Louis concluded they were – and indeed it would be hard to deny.  
Investor activity has dominated the Australian property market over the last 12 months or so.  Banks are bidding for buyers in a highly competitive environment, and the lion’s share of mortgage demand is being eaten up between investors and upgraders.  
A third of all new loans are with loan to value ratios of more than 80%, and 40% are on interest only terms.  Clearly investors are speculating on a continued pattern of price gains from an already high plateau – an ambitious projection.  
Under the existing financial system, inevitably, it’s none other than rising debt that fuels accelerated growth.  However, <a target="_blank" href="#https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/09/charting-the-australian-first-home-buyer-retreat/">since March 2009</a>, whilst the average first homebuyer mortgage has increased by only 1.4%, the mortgage for the market as a whole has grown by 7.9%.  
Meanwhile, first home buyers have seen their savings eroded, and as the latest ABS housing finance data outlines, wishful thinking that rising yields are pushing greater numbers into the market, has had scant effect.  
According to research by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ratecity.com.au/">Rate City</a>, “first home buyers now account for just 11% of home loan commitments. This is below the 20 year average of 15% and has not been this low since 2004.” And whilst interest rates on their own can have little impact on price rises or falls in the near term – a long period of low rates and the dependency it invokes, can be dangerous in inelastic areas of limited supply.  
Current competition coupled with pent up demand, has done little more than push values further out of reach of a genuine entry buyer demographic.  And as complex as it may be to slowly unpick the current distortions that tie up the established market and hamper construction, the implications of not doing so, are potentially worst over the longer term.  
No one should be fooled by the rhetoric from various industry commentators concluding current inflationary gains are of no concern. Hence why we are seeing a conundrum in central banks across the globe employing "precautionary policy activism” in an attempt to cool asset inflation without hampering the broader economy by raising rates.  
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/news/new-zealand-rba-announces-restrictions-on-mortgage-lending-for-borrowers-with-less-than-a-20-deposit/2013082064388">In New Zealand in particular it’s a point of concern</a> and not just a localised issue. House prices currently sit at record highs, with the government property valuer ‘QV’ residential index showing gains of 8.5% in the 12-month period ending August 30.  
As reporter for real estate news on Sky Business 602, Iggy Damiani pointed out to me last week that Australian banks' ownership of New Zealand’s 'big four', place them in a precarious position - currently having the highest exposure to residential mortgages in the world. Therefore asset gains, which outpace both wage growth and inflation, must be addressed.  
Even assuming low rates are assisting first home buyers, saving a deposit and sourcing a suitably affordable property is no easy task for a demographic who are often burdened with a hangover of student debt, and, in many cases, can’t conceivably buy in until they partner with a second income earner.  
With this in mind, it must be pondered what the effect will be when rates do inevitably rise, considering our household debt to income ratio remains stubbornly high, at around 148%.  
Property to some extent connects together like a flowchart. Supply is fed in from the bottom to allow those upgrading (and then downsizing) a ready market to sell into in order to make the move.  
However, when investors predominantly negatively gear into the asset class most favoured by first home buyers – inevitably resulting in inflated established property values – and the state government fails to come to the party with feasible affordable alternatives, our property wheel of upgrading and downsizing risks stagnation.  
In the near term, heated investor activity may keep everyone dancing, however over the longer term we’re losing a valuable demographic of property buyer, which will no doubt have a flow-on effect across the property chain as a whole.  
As these changes push through the generation gap, it’s fair to assess, increasing numbers will retire whist still factoring as short-term renters.  
Investors tend to hold property for extended periods of time in order to build equity – many choose to invest as part of their self-managed super funds and subsequently do not sell until retirement. Therefore the ready supply, which usually comes from initial homebuyers selling and upgrading, will start to slow.  
 
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Additionally, we have the first world problem of an aging population creating future headwinds across the economy, with <a target="_blank" href="https://archive.treasury.gov.au/igr/igr2010/report/pdf/IGR_2010.pdf">government intergenerational reports</a> forecasting the already reducing workforce participation rate, to drop to around 60% by 2050.  
Considering the predominant home buying activity takes place within the ages of 22-44, it seems reasonable to assume that there’ll eventually be proportionally greater demand from those downsizing as we progress through these buyer type changes.  
However, if the flow-on home buyer effect doesn’t follow through, the mismatch of household size comparable to property type will continue to stagnate our property buying and selling terrain, further tying down supply in the areas most want and need to reside – areas within easy commutable distance to city suburbs, jobs and essential amenities such as schools, hospitals, doctors, public transport systems and so forth.  
Therefore, the last thing we should be doing, is advocating the spruik that rising property prices are somehow good for the economy having a supposed flow on effect into retail spending, which in itself is currently not producing the desired result.  First home buyers may head out to purchase white goods and furniture for their new abode, but our investment sector certainly won’t.  
Additionally, choices are limited in a market that has been turned into a speculative terrain.  
If we were building homes that were viable for first home buyers to gain a foothold which would not only maintain consistent market demand in order to upgrade, but also provide feasible accommodation for this demographic to settle for an adequate period of time, then having an investor-dominated inner-city terrain could perhaps be balanced somewhat so as not to affect the stagnated flow of the home buyer chain.  
However, the new home options are either limited to outer-suburban estates lacking in infrastructure, which is an essential component needed at the start of each project if we’re to lure home buyers outwards, or alternatively, inner-city high-density low grade developments.  
Our census data already demonstrates that most lone person households are tottering around in accommodation that’s far too big for their requirements. Building an abundance of one-bedroom apartments therefore won’t suffice; only 14% of the total single person households of all ages opt for one-bedroom units.  We instead need a wider diversity of options, in particular, accommodation suited to families - with the decrease of ownership for this demographic showing a fall from 79.5% in 2006 to 77.2% in 2011.  
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/residential/why-investor-activity-is-causing-our-property-markets-to-stagnate-catherine-cashmore/2013021759370">As I’ve mentioned previously</a>, the percentage of investor-owned apartments in both Darwin and Brisbane falls close to 70% – and in the other capitals, it comes in between 60 and 70%.  
And whilst this generation of existing investors may continue to enjoy short-term speculative gains of the oft quoted property cycle, since when did the future of the first home buyer market become ours to erode?  
I’ve assisted numerous first home buyers and renters over the past few years, and it’s no exaggeration many perceive the capital price of property and the risks associated with taking on a greater proportion of debt a potential liability. For those who argue based on textbook analysis that property is not over priced, I suggest they change their frame of reference. There may be historical logic behind the long-term growth in values, but this doesn’t change the consequence; it is both over priced and under supplied.  
Therefore, pressure on the rental market is unlikely to ease in the near to far future, with ABS data showing almost two-thirds of new residents from overseas are long-term property renters along with half new residents from within Australia who also class themselves within the same bracket.  
Furthermore, economic conditions such as wage growth, unemployment, consumer confidence and frequent changes of work placements all reduce the likelihood of a strengthening owner-occupier market over the next decade.  
Current policy is built around the general assumption that renting is a step on the road to ownership. However, unless the trend takes an about turn, tomorrow’s generation will hold a growing percentage of residents for which renting is for life, and as such, we also need to consider their welfare.  
Policy should be steered towards the creation of a fairer partnership between owner and renter.  This would include longer terms of tenancy, protection from exorbitant rent rises coupled with enforcement of basic standards of accommodation in both the private and public sector.  
As it stands, in the rental market, and the property buying/selling market short termism dominates.  No surprise, as we’re governed by those who derive personal and political benefit from the existing system, polling for the popular vote from home owners and investors; pinned to our flawed debt based financial system that relies on an ever inflating future to under-pin existing gains.  
 
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 Catherine Cashmore is a market analyst with extensive experience in all aspects relating to property acquisition.
 
     
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