South East Queensland developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a>’s entry into the Gold Coast apartment market has progressed from pipeline to market, with its Chevron Island project Bronze on Chevron now formally available to purchase ahead of a planned 2029 completion.

The 119-apartment development on Mawarra Street marks the Brisbane-headquartered builder-developer’s first residential play in the Gold Coast, following its expansion south from Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> comprises a mix of two-, three- and four-bedroom residences, with pricing starting from just over $1.5 million. The project is being delivered under Gardner Vaughan’s fully integrated model, with the group acting as both developer and builder, a structure it has consistently applied across its South East Queensland portfolio.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367182]

Architecture has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jeremy-ferrier-landscape-design">Jeremy Ferrier</a>. The building presents as a single-tower scheme, with a focus on maximising outlook across both the Surfers Paradise skyline and the Nerang River.

Apartments have been planned with open-plan living zones extending to generous balconies, a response to the site’s dual-aspect positioning between river and ocean. Interiors follow a restrained coastal palette, with two colour schemes offered, and an emphasis on natural light and cross-ventilation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367181]

Resident amenity is concentrated across more than 1,250 sqm and includes a resort-style pool, gym, yoga lawn and rooftop entertaining areas. A function space with catering facilities forms part of the upper-level offering, alongside north- and south-facing outdoor areas.

Ground level will incorporate two retail tenancies, intended to extend the existing village character of the surrounding streets.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367200]

The project sits within walking distance of Thomas Drive’s established dining strip, while maintaining proximity to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Surfers Paradise</a> beach and broader Gold Coast amenity. The location, positioned on Chevron Island between the river and coastline, has increasingly attracted mid- to high-density development in recent years as the precinct evolves beyond its low-rise origins.

Gardner Vaughan’s move into the Gold Coast was first signalled in 2025, with the group identifying the region as a natural extension of its operations. Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge described the expansion as both “strategic and natural”, citing demand for well-designed apartments in lifestyle-driven markets.

Construction is expected to complete in early 2029.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]

Joel Robinson

Gardner Vaughan brings Bronze on Chevron to market as Gold Coast debut

One of the penthouses at Lily Lane, the latest stage of Carrington Place by Ellipse Property, has set a new local apartment price record.

The four-bedroom residence, purchased by a local downsizer, sold for $5.75 million—around 75 per cent higher than the previous record of $3.3 million.

Over 40 per cent of the first release of apartments at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lily-lane-at-carrington-place-castle-hill-32-carrington-road-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Lily Lane</a> have already been snapped up just six weeks since it launched to the market.

&nbsp;

Located at 32 Carrington Road, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/castle-hill-nsw-2154">Castle Hill</a> and designed by award-winning architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ptw">PTW</a>, Lily Lane is directly opposite the Hills Showground Metro station. It offers a total 213 units over two 12-storey towers - a mix of 67 one-bedroom, 100 two-bedroom and 46 three-bedroom apartments - with a ground-floor retail offering.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=368352]

Blake Schulze, National Director – Residential at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/colliers">Colliers</a>, says around 44 per cent of buyers are&nbsp;owner occupiers, with 35 per cent being investors and 21 per cent first homebuyers.

“Developments of this calibre are very rare in the Hills District, and Lily Lane’s sales success demonstrates the depth of demand for over-sized apartments that genuinely compete with freestanding homes," Schulze says.

"We are seeing particular demand from downsizers who want to remain in the area but transition into spacious, high-quality apartment living."

On the penthouse sale, it says it shows buyers&nbsp;are prepared to pay a premium for scale, quality, and direct access to the Metro.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=368351]

One-bedroom apartments are sized from 50-72 sqm with prices starting at $745,000, while two-bedrooms are priced from $990,000 with sizes from 75 to 132 square metres. Three-bedroom floorplans are sized between 97 and 182 sqm,, with prices starting at $1,395,000.&nbsp;

The three remaining penthouses, spanning up to 262 sqm, are priced from $2.9 million.

Over 75 per cent of apartments include dedicated studies, multipurpose rooms or family rooms, with select layouts offering walk-in pantries and laundries. Apartments are appointed with premium Miele appliances including ovens, washing machines, dryers, gas cooktops and dishwashers, while larger residences also incorporate integrated Miele microwaves, Fisher &amp; Paykel integrated refrigerators and five-burner Miele cooktops.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=360285]

Lily Lane will be constructed by award-winning iCIRT-rated builder <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/decode">Decode Group</a>, with construction to commence in mid-2026 and expected to complete early 2029.

Carrington Place comprises more than 800 apartments and is being delivered across multiple stages, with completion expected in 2032. Integrated with neighbouring bushland, the project will feature over 20,000 sq, of outdoor recreational area, including a one-kilometre boardwalk to Fred Caterson Reserve.&nbsp;

The Hills Showground Metro Station is just a two-minute walk away, offering fast connectivity to Sydney’s CBD, North Sydney, Chatswood, Macquarie Park and Norwest Business Park.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151821]

Ellipse sets Castle Hill apartment record with $5.75 million Lily Lane penthouse sale

Fresh off completing its Delano Crows Nest development, Lindsay Bennelong has lodged plans for its next project, this time turning its attention to the beach.

The developer, founded by Clarendon Homes founder Peter Campbell, is proposing a 37-apartment scheme at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-25-ashburner-street-manly-nsw-2095">17-25 Ashburner Street</a>, Manly, positioned between the southern end of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/manly-nsw-2095">Manly</a> Beach and East Manly Cove.

Lindsay Bennelong called on local architecture firm Platform Architects to design the new building, given their success on The Finn, Lindsay Bennelong's current luxury apartment project on North Steyne.&nbsp;

According to the Design Verification Statement by Bridie Gough of Platform Architects, the proposal “relates to the current context but also the desired future character of taller buildings suitable to the new planning controls.”

The site has been identified as a Low to Mid-Rise Housing (LMR) location, given its position within 400 metres of the Manly Town Centre E1 Business Zone. The LMR controls are intended to unlock additional housing supply in well-located areas close to public transport, allowing developers to seek increased height limits to support greater density.

“The proposal seeks to provide this increased level of housing whilst being respectful of some of the smaller scale buildings also nearby,” the statement reads.

Lindsay Bennelong Development Director Leigh Manser said the project has been carefully aligned with the intent of the LMR controls. The proposal will significantly increase housing yield on the site, replacing four houses and 10 apartments, comprising 25 bedrooms, with 37 new apartments delivering a total of 94 bedrooms.

“Sydney is in a severe undersupply, and delivering more dwellings and more bedrooms than what currently exists is exactly what the LMR policy is designed to activate,” Manser said, noting that nine of the apartments will be allocated as affordable housing for frontline workers.

“We have already commenced discussions with our community housing provider to determine the rental levels that frontline workers can realistically afford in this location,” he said. “These will need to sit well below the standard affordable housing benchmark of 20 per cent below market rent, and that has been factored into our feasibility and pricing.”

<img alt="Manly" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ad03000f-19f9-48b4-b27d-e85ca800a1da" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%208.41.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=a.txHwCZgbCInlQ6QXbIrI.umvW1T.r8" />

The design of the building incorporates a wave-like indentation running through the façade, referencing the nearby coastline and anchoring the building within its local context.

The&nbsp;Design Verification Statement says careful consideration has been given to the articulation of the building, ensuring the bulk is broken down to a more human scale through a defined four-storey podium."

The scheme includes a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments.

“The design ensures a high level of amenity, with apartments offering generous private open space, many with expansive views, and all with comfortable proportions."

<img alt="Bennelong" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6a7f2812-72a1-4959-84b0-997e8cd88aed" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%2010.15.50%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=6iMxU3MkXmHVHAoNhYBjnqgka8CUZNbk" />

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lindsay-bennelong-developments">Lindsay Bennelong</a>&nbsp;is currently developing Finn Manly, just three full-floor luxury apartments on North Steyne. They recently welcomed residents to its 81-unit Delano Crows Nest development, a&nbsp;carefully scaled infill project designed to bridge&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/crows-nest-nsw-2065">Crows Nest</a>’s lively village centre with its surrounding heritage streets.

Designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ajc-architects">AJC Architects</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/delano-crows-nest-27-57-falcon-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Delano</a>&nbsp;is arranged across three low-rise buildings, incorporating a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom apartments alongside a limited number of townhomes addressing Hayberry Lane. The architectural approach draws on the area’s Art Deco lineage, reinterpreted through contemporary detailing and framed by landscaped communal gardens.

The developer also has a development site in Maroubra.

First look: Lindsay Bennelong's new Manly apartment development revealed

Fifty-nine residences across 37 levels. No more than two per floor. With 80 per cent now sold, what remains at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/madeline-by-mosaic-broadbeach-22-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">Madeline by Mosaic</a> is a short list.

Madeline was always conceived at a scale that sits outside the normal register of Gold Coast apartment living. The residences are half- and full-floor configurations, with the largest spanning more than 400 sqm, dimensions that place them closer to the penthouse end of the market regardless of where they sit in the building.

That scale is the organising principle of everything else: how the floorplans are laid out, how the materials read, how the connection between inside and outside works.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=355941]

The interiors were developed in collaboration with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser &amp; Partners</a>, the architecture practice&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mosaic-property-group">Mosaic</a> brought in as design partner for the first time on this project. The palette runs to natural stone, textured timbers, and soft metallics, materials chosen as much for their tactile quality as their appearance.

Light cleverly shifts across surfaces through the day, and the design is explicit about wanting that to be noticed. Full-height glazing runs across the primary living areas, and where the building faces east toward the ocean, those walls of glass are doing real work: framing a view corridor that the site's position directly opposite Broadbeach State School's playing fields keeps permanently open.

That outlook is the site's most consequential asset. In a suburb where new towers continue to rise, a protected view line is genuinely rare, and the Mary Avenue address secures it. Residents at Madeline will look out over open parkland rather than the rear of another building, a distinction that becomes more meaningful with each new development approved nearby.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=355939]

The private outdoor spaces are sized to match the residences themselves. Terraces on the upper levels frame uninterrupted ocean panoramas, and the planning ensures that living areas extend into those outdoor zones rather than treating them as separate attachments. The flow between the two is part of the design intent, not an afterthought.

Inside, the finish specification reflects the same approach. Rich stone benchtops, warm timber joinery, bespoke hardware, each element specified to hold up over time rather than read as a moment in a particular trend cycle.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=3409]

Beyond the residences, the amenity offering extends that register. A lap pool and sun deck anchor the outdoor space, alongside a magnesium pool, cold plunge, steam room, and sauna.

A commercial-grade gymnasium, residents' lounge, library, and boardroom round out a programme that functions more like a private members club than a standard building amenity floor.

Construction has commenced under Mosaic's in-house building arm, with completion scheduled for late 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150135]

Madeline by Mosaic delivers penthouse-level living across every apartment

Developer Fortezza Group is the latest to take its new apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-belvedere-5-7-church-street-nelson-bay-nsw-2315">The Belvedere in Nelson Bay</a>, to the NSW Government.

Fortezza, predominantly a South East Queensland developer, is the latest to apply for State Significant Development&nbsp; status through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority, a pathway becoming favoured by developers to speed up the approval process.

They are planning 57 two- and three-bedroom apartments across 5-7 Church Street and 42 Donald Street, near d'Albora Nelson Bay Marina. The diverse apartment mix has sizes from just over 80 sqm to the largest three-bedroom penthouses that reach nearly 200 sqm.

<img alt="Fortezza" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="090360e1-66d7-43ad-b686-aba81f173bf2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-29%20at%2010.22.40%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=DMqF96eBZolqSAAAcugX0l66ueWng66m" />

Fortezza calls the project a "piece of Istria in Nelson Bay,"&nbsp;referring to the largest peninsula in the Adriatic Sea, shared by Croatia (90%), Slovenia, and Italy, which is known for its Roman history, Venetian-style coastal towns and inland hilltop villages.

They say the The Belvedere is strategically positioned at the apex of Nelson Bay, offering unrivalled views of the ocean, the bay and captivating topography of the area.

"Our commitment to maintaining the integrity of every view and sight line has been relentless," Fortezza Group says.

"Through extensive modelling and analysis, we ensure that each apartment enjoys the natural beauty of Nelson Bay, regardless of future developments. Each design element is carefully curated to harmonise with our European heritage, drawing profound inspiration from the Roman architectural marvels in Istria. The arches, the cascades of greenery and the stonework that define our project pay homage to the structures that once exemplified Roman grandeur."

Residents will have access to a pool, communal green spaces, an office and a coffee shop.

First look: Fortezza Group takes The Belvedere, Nelson Bay apartment development, to NSW Government

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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Vacancies have remained high in Melbourne, according to SQM Research's national residential rental vacancy report for February.

"Melbourne remains weighed down by underwhelming demand for rental accommodation," said Louis Christopher, managing director of SQM Research.

Melbourne’s vacancy rate rose from 4.4% to 4.5%

It was down from the 4.7% last December, which was the highest level since SQM Research started measuring data in 2005. 

Melbourne’s vacancy rate ranks as the highest for a capital city in the nation, with the withdrawal of international student tenants hitting the city hard, Christopher noted.

<img alt="" height="506" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/vacancy_rates_sqm.jpg" width="1378">

The inner Melbourne CBD vacancy rate stands at 7.5%, down from 9.4% last October.

Sydney’s overall vacancy rate rose 0.1% to 3.3%. 

The Sydney CBD vacancy rate dropped to 6.3% in February 2021, down from a high of 14.8% in May 2020, indicating a return to life for Sydney city. 

Elsewhere, in Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Darwin and Hobart, the vacancy rate was below 1%.

Brisbane’s vacancy rate also remained tight, down to 1.5% in February from January 2021.

SQM’s calculations of vacancies are based on online rental listings that have been advertised for three weeks or more compared to the total number of established rental properties.

"The figures for Melbourne and Sydney would be disappointing for existing property investors," Christopher said.

"Normally, vacancy rates in these two cities fall over February, in part due to international students starting their semesters.

"But given the ongoing closure of the international border, the seasonal increase in rental demand has not occurred this year. 

"This year will favour tenants in the inner cities but will also very much remain a landlord’s market in regional Australia.

“Elsewhere, we are still recording strong interest from tenants in larger properties in outer suburban locations as well as wider regional Australia. 

'Investment property owners in Darwin or Perth have also enjoyed a strong year of rental returns.”

Over the month to 12 March 2021, capital city average asking rents fell 0.4% for houses to $550 per week and 0.2% for units to $412. 

Reflecting accommodation oversupply, Melbourne and Sydney unit asking rents fell by 1.4% and 0.4%, respectively over the past month.

House rents also fell in Sydney by 1.2% while Melbourne house asking rents were flat. 

<h2>Recently listed VIC properties:</h2>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=29908]

[smartcode_project:default project_id=26935]

[smartcode_project:default project_id=29909]

 
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Melbourne also posted a 12% drop in asking unit asking rents over the year to March 2021

jchancellor

Melbourne rental vacancies remain high given international student absence: SQM

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EXPERT INSIGHT

Among the many explanations put forward for <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/australia-first-home-buyers-priced-out-of-property-market-by-extreme-offers/d7de770f-c492-46fa-a774-bda0ea45718e">soaring home prices</a>, one we hear repeatedly is <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/zoning-rules-cost-home-buyers-a-fortune--and-itll-get-worse-says-rba-20180308-h0x6uh">zoning</a> — the regulations that govern the purposes for which land can be used, including how densely people can be housed in different locations.

The real estate industry says if only we <a href="https://udia.com.au/media-release/housing-affordability-woes-need-solutions/">relaxed the zoning rules</a> and allowed more houses and apartments to be built on each block, housing would be cheaper, maybe A$355,000 per unit cheaper if the <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2020/pdf/rdp2020-04.pdf">Reserve Bank</a> is right.

It’s a story as grounded in simplicity as it is (on the part of developers) in self-interest.

The simple story is that zoning regulations restrict development, restricted development means restricted supply of houses and apartments, and restricted supply means higher prices. Scrap the planning laws, the argument goes, and property developers will shower the market with housing, driving down prices.

So effective is the mantra it has become part of the official story in <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fixing-our-broken-housing-market">Britain</a> and the <a href="https://bpr.berkeley.edu/2020/04/06/no-more-picket-fences-how-sb50-could-have-solved-the-california-housing-crisis/">United States</a>, and to <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2020/pdf/rdp2020-04.pdf">some extent</a> here.

What’s missing is evidence.

Studies which point the finger at the planning system almost universally fail to quantify the extent of housing permitted by planning regulations and how it has changed over time.

Rarely have changes in zoning been examined

Analysis by Australia’s <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2018/pdf/rdp2018-03.pdf">Reserve Bank</a> for example, treats zoning rules as though they exist in stasis; an ever-present yet spatially-varied regulation measured by whatever price remains once structure and land values are subtracted.

Our <a href="https://osf.io/zkt7v/">new research</a> fills the gap by measuring changes in zoning at the level of individual properties in greater Brisbane.

<figure class="align-right zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388744/original/file-20210310-20-synd5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" sizes=" 600px) 600px, 237px" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388744/original/file-20210310-20-synd5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388744/original/file-20210310-20-synd5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=970&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388744/original/file-20210310-20-synd5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=970&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388744/original/file-20210310-20-synd5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=970&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388744/original/file-20210310-20-synd5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=1219&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388744/original/file-20210310-20-synd5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=1219&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388744/original/file-20210310-20-synd5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=1219&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w"></a>

<figcaption>The 19 Brisbane centres studied.
</figcaption></figure>We examined 20 years of changes to zoning, housing supply and prices across more than 25,000 sites in 19 major centres subject to <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2399808320951583">repeated</a> zoning changes designed to encourage urban infill.

The centres had within them a wide variety of land use types (detached dwellings, medium-density dwellings, commercial and retail use, etc.) and housing densities. We reviewed and mapped historic and current rules to determine how the zoned capacity changed on each site.

We combined this with data on the changes in land use on each site, changes to the actual supply of dwellings, and property prices.

If the semi-official story was true, we would have expected increases in zoned capacity to lead to falling prices.

Our results show no such thing. Locations with increased zoned capacity for housing saw increased (not reduced) property prices. Across the selected sites, houses increased in value by a factor of three and apartments by 2.3 over the two decades studied, as they did elsewhere in Australia.

Weaker zoning, not weaker prices

During this time, the zoned capacity for housing at these locations doubled. But there was no rush to take up the increase in capacity.

The vast majority of sites (94%) were not developed within five years of the zoning changes.

Even after 20 years, 71% of the extra capacity remained unexploited.

We found evidence for an alternative story: that planning regulations permit development, but it is the market price that determines if and where development occurs.

Higher sales prices make development more feasible.

Under this story, developers select their sites, build, and sell in strong markets and wait or avoid selling when markets are weak.

This partly explains why locations with highest initial property prices were the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/08111146.2020.1792284">most likely</a> to be developed.

Like all good stories, the semi-official one contains an element of truth. If the planning system failed to allow for enough growth, it would almost certainly drive up prices.

Rarely is supply a problem

To avoid this, planning authorities go to <a href="https://planning.dsdmip.qld.gov.au/planning/better-planning/state-planning/regional-plans/seqrp/lsdm">great lengths</a> to ensure there is enough zoned capacity to cater for projected growth.

This is one reason why we <a href="https://osf.io/r925z">don’t have a housing supply problem</a>. Deregulating the planning system won’t change that, but nor will it ease price pressure.

What it will do is reduce the environmental and other benefits zoning provides, while continuing to allow developers to sell properties at times <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1051137720300449">of their choosing</a>.

What is driving up house prices now has little to do with zoning, and it is happening worldwide.

Throughout the globe we have seen increases in easy access to cheap credit and tax regimes that encourage speculative property investment.

Unlike planning regulations, which vary hugely by location, these macroeconomic factors are common. They help explain why the housing affordability crisis transcends national boundaries.

It is the liberalisation of finance and the treatment of housing as an investment product that got us into this mess. Further liberalisation of planning regulations is unlikely to get us out.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" jfhjlrx="" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154482/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" width="1" yyupy4q2g="" z="">

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mark-limb-1185405">Mark Limb</a>, Lecturer in Urban and Regional Planning, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/queensland-university-of-technology-847">Queensland University of Technology</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/cameron-murray-172480">Cameron Murray</a>, Research Fellow - Henry Halloran Trust, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a>

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/zoning-isnt-to-blame-for-australias-soaring-house-prices-154482">original article</a>.
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Studies which point the finger at the planning system almost universally fail to quantify the extent of housing permitted by planning regulations and how it has changed over time

jordan_55689

Zoning isn’t to blame for Australia’s soaring house prices

World-leading university campus developments overseas call into question plans for CBD-based campuses in Australia. They might be good for CBD development, but what about the universities themselves?

max.kwok_55688

Think big. Why the future of uni campuses lies beyond the CBD

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EXPERT INSIGHT

Investors have clearly now joined the stampede of buyers rushing housing markets, but the overall home loan market share of investors remains at record low levels, offsetting any concerns by the RBA and financial regulators of potential market disruption.

The ABS reports that the value of national investor lending seasonally adjusted increased by 9.4% over January to $6.4bn which is the highest monthly total recorded since May 2018.

Despite the sharp increase, the overall home loan market share of investors fell to a new record low 19.1% and well behind the long-term average of 33.1%. Recent growth in investor lending still lags the remarkable increases reported by owner-occupiers and first home buyers.

During the similar strong market conditions in 2014, investor market share exceeded 40% which resulted in actions by financial regulators to subdue activity from this group. 

This reflected concerns that record levels of highly-leveraged investors may cause disruptions to housing markets in the event of an increase in official interest rates pushing down home prices.

WA reported the sharpest increase in monthly investor lending over the past year, rising by 47.2%, followed by QLD up 26.7%, NSW up 17.9% and SA up 0.4%. Monthly investor lending in VIC however fell 1.0% over the past year.

NSW accounted for the most investor activity over January with 40.9% of total national activity with $2.21bn in loans approved followed by VIC well behind with $1.47bn, QLD $0.89bn, WA $0.34bn and SA $0.24bn.

The average NSW investor loan reported over January was the highest of all the states at $658,900 followed by VIC 537,388, QLD $441,037, WA $411,649 and SA $368,232.

Although investor lending is on the rise, the overall residential loan market share remains at record low levels with current strong prices growth clearly driven by unprecedented owner-occupier lending activity.

Any misguided move to raise interest rates to quell strong buyer activity would clearly place in jeopardy the current fragile and nascent economic recovery – something the RBA has clearly acknowledged.”

Dr Andrew Wilson is the chief economist at Archistar
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awilson

investors have joined the stampede of buyers rushing housing markets: Archistar's Andrew Wilson

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EXPERT INSIGHT

The records have continued to tumble for the Aussie property market in early 2021. National home prices surged 2.1 per cent in February – the most since August 2003. Regional home prices also gained 2.1 per cent – the most in 17 years. And capital city home prices rose by 2.0 per cent – the biggest lift since September 2003.

Home prices are at record highs in Canberra, Adelaide, Brisbane and Hobart. Canberra home prices (up 1.9 per cent) rose the most in 13½ years; Perth home prices (up 1.55 per cent) lifted the most in 14 years; Brisbane home prices (up 1.5 per cent) gained the most in 13 years; and Hobart home prices (up 2.5 per cent) surged the most in 17 years. And it was the biggest lift in Sydney home prices (up 2.5 per cent) and Melbourne (up 2.1 per cent) since late 2019. 

But it’s regional Aussie housing markets – benefiting from lifestyle choices, remote working arrangements, internal migration, closed borders and better affordability – that are seeing massive price gains during the pandemic. Regional home prices climbed by 2.1 per cent in February – the biggest lift in 17 years. Regional home prices surged 9.4 per cent in the year to February – the strongest annual growth rate in 16½ years. CoreLogic data also shows that median home prices are at record highs in 53 of the 88 SA4 regions with just Townsville (down 0.6 per cent) and the NSW Riverina (down 0.3 per cent) posting price declines in February.

<img alt="" height="961" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/commsec_house_lift_figures.jpg" width="1200">

Can home prices lift further from here? Absolutely. Preliminary CoreLogic capital city auction clearance rates hit 81.9 per cent last weekend with buyers keen to borrow to upgrade or buy another home.

The smaller capital cities are leading home price gains with Sydney and Melbourne still lagging. In fact, dwelling prices in Sydney are still 1.1 per cent below the July 2017 peak and Melbourne home prices are 1.7 per cent below the March 2020 peak. And resources boom towns – Perth and Darwin – still have a lot of catching up to do. In fact, Perth home prices are still a huge 17.4 per cent below the June 2014 peak and Darwin prices are 23.4 per cent below the April 2014 peak.

While slower population growth and rising supply of detached houses could slow price momentum, Commonwealth Group (CBA) economists forecast national home prices to lift by around 8.0 per cent in 2021. 

<h2>What do the figures show?  </h2>

Home prices – February 2021

The CoreLogic Home Value Index of national home prices rose by 2.1 per cent in February to be 4.0 per cent higher over the year. 

In capital cities, prices rose by 2.0 per cent to be up 2.6 per cent over the year. House prices climbed 2.3 per cent and apartment prices rose by 1.1 per cent. House prices were up 3.6 per cent on a year ago, but prices of apartments decreased by 0.1 per cent.

In regional areas, home prices jumped 2.1 per cent with house prices also up 2.1 per cent and apartment prices up by 1.9 per cent. Regional home prices were up 9.4 per cent on the year with houses lifting 9.7 per cent and apartments up 7.9 per cent.  

The average Australian capital city house price (median price) in February was $723,607 and the average unit price was $581,652.

Home prices were higher in all eight capital cities in February: Sydney (+2.5 per cent); Melbourne (+2.1 per cent); Brisbane (+1.5 per cent); Adelaide (+0.8 per cent); Perth (+1.5 per cent); Hobart (+2.5 per cent); Darwin (+0.7 per cent); Canberra (+1.9 per cent).

Home prices were higher than a year ago in seven of the eight capital cities in February: Sydney (+2.8 per cent); Melbourne (-1.3 per cent); Brisbane (+5.0 per cent); Adelaide (+7.3 per cent); Perth (+4.6 per cent); Hobart (+8.7 per cent); Darwin (+13.8 per cent); Canberra (+9.7 per cent).

Total returns on national dwellings rose by 7.6 per cent in the year to February with houses up 8.5 per cent and units up by 5.0 per cent on a year earlier. In contrast, the S&amp;P/ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index rose by 9.6 per cent over the year to February.

<h2>Conclusion</h2>

Australia’s property market is strong, driven by record-low borrowing costs, government stimulus, low housing inventories and an improving labour market backdrop. Of course, the lift in home prices is good for the household ‘wealth effect’ and consumer confidence – pivotal for continued retail spending. The lift in home building supports jobs in the construction sector with ‘brickies’ in short supply. But housing affordability is becoming an issue with Sydney the third least affordable and Melbourne the sixth least affordable housing markets according to recent reports from Bloomberg, Urban Reform Institute and Frontier Centre for Public Policy.

That said, the Reserve Bank’s private sector credit or loans data released last Friday suggests that housing sector credit growth (up 3.6 per cent over the year to January 2021) remains subdued when compared with historic levels. CBA Group economists expect housing credit growth to remain low and do not expect macro‑prudential policies to be implemented in 2021. But the lift in household mortgage debt will unnerve policymakers.

Australia’s factory sector is in good shape. According to the AiGroup, production rose to multi-decade highs in February. The AiGroup gauge hit 3-year highs with surveyed purchasing managers suggesting that government stimulus is driving up demand as the economic recovery gains traction.
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Biggest lift in Australian home prices in 17 years: CommSec's Ryan Felsman

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If you’re considering buying a holiday home right now, you’re not alone. With Australians currently forced to put their plans for international travel on hold and the cost of Australian holiday home rentals on the rise, it's no wonder more people are keen to invest in a holiday home to call their own. 

Like anything in life, buying a holiday home has its pros and cons. Here’s what you should consider. 

<h2>Pros of buying a holiday home right now</h2>

The pandemic has put the importance of lifestyle into the spotlight. Having a holiday home to escape to regularly can be an excellent way to improve your quality of life. If you would usually travel overseas regularly, this can also be a good alternative. 

With the costs of renting a holiday home soaring thanks to huge local demand, combined with record low interest rates, we’re experiencing a unique situation where it may actually be more cost effective to buy rather than regularly rent a holiday home. For those who have managed to save more during the pandemic - such as through forgoing the costs of international travel - the costs of a deposit may also already be covered.

If you already spend money on going on holiday in Australia each year, especially if it's to the same place, then spending that money on a mortgage on a holiday home may make sense. Not only are you spending what you would have spent anyway, if not less, but once you’ve paid off the mortgage you then own an asset which will grow over time. If you can’t afford 100% of the mortgage on your own, then you can always rent it out part of the year until you have paid down the mortgage.

For those getting into the market right now, there’s a window of time where prices will remain affordable. We’re already seeing prices in some areas such as Byron Bay rise significantly. Across the board regional home values rose by 0.4 per cent in September or 4.3 per cent year-on-year.

For those looking to rent out their holiday home for part of the year, there has been a sharp increase in rents, resulting in a better return than usual, at least in the short-term.

<hr>
<address>READ: <a href="/news/qld/5-apartments-for-the-professional-couple-in-queenslands-broadbeach" target="_blank">5 apartments for the professional couple in Queensland’s Broadbeach</a>
</address>

<h2>What are the Cons?</h2>

If you’re looking to purchase a holiday home as an investment, it may not always be the best choice. The short-term surge in rental values might not last once the borders reopen and some people opt to head overseas for their holidays.

If you’re planning on renting out your holiday home when you’re not staying there, you need to be prepared to dedicate time and money to managing bookings, taking inquiries, cleaning and maintaining the property. This can prove burdensome for many people. If your holiday home is not your principal place of residence, then you may need to factor in taxes such as land tax which can impact the property’s affordability. 

If you opt to purchase a holiday home, you’re locked in to one holiday destination. For some people this may feel too limiting, especially once the borders open. 

Securing finance for a holiday home purchase can be more challenging. Lenders will look at the unpredictable rental income and may require a larger deposit, a shorter loan period or a higher interest rate. 

Ultimately, buying a holiday home is a personal choice. Talk to your financial adviser about whether it may be possible with your financial situation and consider your life and wealth goals. If you’ve always wanted to have your own holiday home and it’s an attainable and practical goal, then why not make it happen? 
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Ultimately, buying a holiday home is a personal choice. But, for those getting into the market right now, there’s a window of time where prices will remain affordable

Is now the right time to buy a holiday home?

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SQM Research has calculated the national residential rental vacancy rate decreased sightly in January, with all mainland capital cities recording falls in vacancies in January.

SQM Research noted that there are now less vacancies compared to last January – just prior to the first outbreak of Covid-19 in Australia. 

But CBD rental vacancy rates in both Sydney and Melbourne remain elevated, despite recent falls. 

Melbourne’s overall vacancy rate decreased from 4.7% in December 2020 to stand at 4.4%,  the highest vacancy rate for any of the capitals.

This time last year, Melbourne’s vacancy rate was low at 2.1%. 

Sydney also recorded a fall in vacancies over January with the rental vacancy rate sitting at 3.2%, assisted by sharp falls in the CBD rental market where vacancy rates are down to 6.2% after being as high as 16% in May last year. 

“We remain of the view that there will not be a complete reversal of the sharp rise in rental vacancy rates experienced in these locations,” SQM’s Louis Christopher said.

“Demand for inner city property will remain affected by the closure of the international border as well as ongoing caution on future city lockdowns. 

“This will mean 2021 will remain largely a tenant’s market in the inner cities but will also very much remain a landlord’s market for regional Australia.” 

<img alt="" height="592" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/sqm_vacancy_rates.jpg" width="1200">

Landlords in capital city are seeking slightly higher asking rents, up 0.7% for both houses and units to $552 per week for houses and $413 per week for units.  

Sydney had the highest increase of 3.2% in asking rents for houses and 2.2% in unit asking rents.  

“This is the first significant rise for Sydney since February 2020,” SQM’s Louis Christopher who pointed out 12-month rents are still in the negative by 6.3% (houses) and 8.9% (units) respectively. 

Melbourne continued to record declines in both house and unit asking rents over the month, falling by 0.1% and 0.4% respectively.  Interestingly, rents slightly rose in the CBD for units, a sign that the worse could be over for CBD landlords. 

Canberra recorded increases in house rents of 2.8% and unit rents increased by 2.7%. Perth house and unit rents also increased over the month.  

<img alt="" height="1011" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/sqm_weekly_rents.jpg" width="1200">

 
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Find out what happened to the national vacancy rate in January

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Internal migration resulted in a net loss of 11,200 people from Australia’s capital cities in the September quarter of 2020, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/latest-release">data</a> released this month. At the same time, some regional areas experienced significant <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-04/house-prices-rise-1pc-regional-beats-capital-cities/13029268#:%7E:text=Annual%20data%20by%20real%20estate,research%20director%20Tim%20Lawless%20said.">growth in house prices</a> as <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/property/2020/12/04/regional-australia-property-boom/">demand for properties</a> increased. So this has raised the questions: are we starting to see an <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-02/abs-data-confirms-city-exodus-during-covid/13112868">exodus from our cities</a>, and is this related to the COVID-19 pandemic?

To work out what is happening there are a few important things to consider.

<h2>In Australia we move a lot</h2>

The first thing to keep in mind is that Australia has one of the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7EPopulation%20Shift:%20Understanding%20Internal%20Migration%20in%20Australia%7E69">most internally mobile populations</a> in the world. About 40% of the population change their addresses at least once within a five-year period. However, the level of internal migration within Australia has <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7EPopulation%20Shift:%20Understanding%20Internal%20Migration%20in%20Australia%7E69">fallen since the 1990s</a>.

The greatest fall has been for long-distance moves between Australia cities and regions, which <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/migration-australia">declined by 25%</a> between 1991 and 2016. Moves between states and territories <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/migration-australia">fell by 16%</a> over this period. An increase or decrease in internal migration from year to year is not unusual.

<figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383668/original/file-20210211-19-dvgm7d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="chart showing net internal migration figures from September quarter 2010 to September quarter 2020" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383668/original/file-20210211-19-dvgm7d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383668/original/file-20210211-19-dvgm7d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=420&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383668/original/file-20210211-19-dvgm7d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=420&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383668/original/file-20210211-19-dvgm7d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=420&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383668/original/file-20210211-19-dvgm7d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=528&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383668/original/file-20210211-19-dvgm7d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=528&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383668/original/file-20210211-19-dvgm7d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=528&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w"></a>

<figcaption><a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/latest-release">Data: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Regional internal migration estimates</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></figcaption></figure><h2>Putting the numbers into context</h2>

While the recent loss of 11,200 people from Australia’s capital cities is the largest on record, it’s not a significant proportion of the population. Australia’s population has grown and so we expect to see the number of internal migrants to grow too.

The net loss of 11,200 people from capital cities is only 0.06% of the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population/2018-19">total population</a> – 17.2 million – living in these cities. This is comparable to recent years.

While net loss – those arriving less those departing – is interesting, it is also important to consider the actual numbers of people who are moving to or leaving capital cities. The growth in the net loss of population from capital cities in the September quarter was not the result of a city exodus. What happened in 2020 was that fewer people moved into capital cities.

Drilling down further behind the headline data, we find Brisbane, Perth and Darwin all had net population gains. Brisbane has gained residents through internal migration in <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/sep-2020/3412055005DS0001_202003.xls">each quarter since 2014</a>.

The greatest contributor to the recent net quarterly loss of 11,200 was Sydney, with a net loss of 7,782 people. Melbourne was close behind with a net loss of 7,445.

While this might look alarming at first, Sydney and Melbourne are the largest population centres in Australia. And Sydney has recorded a net loss of population through internal migration <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/sep-2020/3412055005DS0001_202003.xls">every quarter for the past two decades</a>. Melbourne recorded net losses until 2012 and then since 2017.

Sydney and Melbourne’s overall population continued to grow over this period due to international migration. Population churn is part of the rhythm of these global cities.

The <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/sep-2020/3412055005DS0001_202003.xls">data</a> also reveal that, on average, regional Australia has been gaining population for many years – decades actually. Moving to regional Australia is not new.

The past year’s COVID-19 restrictions closed Australia’s borders to the previously <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/migration-australia/latest-release#net-overseas-migration">large numbers of international migrants</a>. Without these international migrants moving to capital cities, the long-term trend of people relocating to urban areas around major cities has become more apparent.

<h2>Have the capital cities lost their appeal?</h2>

Just considering the September 2020 quarter, <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/latest-release">nearly 42,000 people</a> moved to capital cities. This is comparable to the March and June quarters of 2020.

This inflow is noteworthy. At a time when many capital cities had mobility restrictions related to COVID-19 in place, people were still moving to these cities. Australia’s capital cities <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/300000-more-people-living-capital-cities">have not lost their appeal</a>.

<figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383690/original/file-20210211-23-ncinci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="Table showing quarterly internal migration for greater capital cities in September 2019, June 2020 and September 2020" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383690/original/file-20210211-23-ncinci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383690/original/file-20210211-23-ncinci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=241&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383690/original/file-20210211-23-ncinci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=241&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383690/original/file-20210211-23-ncinci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=241&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383690/original/file-20210211-23-ncinci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=302&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383690/original/file-20210211-23-ncinci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=302&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383690/original/file-20210211-23-ncinci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=302&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w"></a>

<figcaption>Click on table to enlarge. <a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/latest-release">Data: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Regional internal migration estimates Feb. 2021</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></figcaption></figure>There is a risk in interpreting net migration from capital cities as an indicator of decreasing satisfaction with city lifestyles or a growing desire for rural lifestyles. It masks the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook43p/regionalpopulation">considerable variability</a> in the types of moves people are making, where they are going and why.

Outside of capital cities are a whole range of different community types. They range from expansive city areas such as the Gold Coast and Geelong through to tiny agricultural and fishing hamlets.

The <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population/latest-release">fastest-growing areas outside capital cities</a> are those that offer sophisticated urban settings. They have diverse employment options and high-order social, education and healthcare infrastructure. So when people leave a capital city, more often than not <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/3218.0Feature%20Article12016-17?opendocument&amp;tabname=Summary&amp;prodno=3218.0&amp;issue=2016-17&amp;num=&amp;view=">they are moving to a large city</a>.

<h2>Will COVID-19 lead to growth in smaller centres?</h2>

Australia’s overall population growth has <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/planning-for-australia%27s-future-population.pdf">promoted the growth of capital cities and larger regional cities</a>. Some smaller communities, particularly high-amenity coastal towns, have also experienced periods of sustained population growth.

Distributing this growth further inland to smaller towns and cities is both possible and plausible.

A major barrier to population growth in smaller rural communities is the lack of diverse local employment options. For those who have made the transition to <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-could-spark-a-revolution-in-working-from-home-are-we-ready-133070">working fully or partially online</a> as a result of COVID-19 restrictions, <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-urban-sprawl-while-jobs-cluster-working-from-home-will-reshape-the-nation-144409">moving further from their workplace more permanently</a> – and perhaps to the country – could be on the cards.

<h2>So is there a pandemic-related exodus?</h2>

The COVID-19 pandemic is disrupting the way we live our lives but, no, there is not an exodus from Australia’s capital cities. For some, pandemic-related disruptions might have heightened their dissatisfaction with where they live. For others, working from home might have provided them with the opportunity to consider alternative living arrangements.

However, right now, given the data we have, it is unlikely that COVID-19 is driving a shift away from capital cities or city lifestyles.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154724/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" width="1">

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/has-covid-really-caused-an-exodus-from-our-cities-in-fact-moving-to-the-regions-is-nothing-new-154724">original article</a>.

 

<h2>READ MORE:</h2>

<a href="/expert-insights/buying/regional-markets-see-a-significant-increase-in-value-corelogic" target="_blank">Regional markets see a significant increase in value: CoreLogic</a>

<a href="/expert-insights/buying/first-home-buyer-trends-will-2021-be-the-renaissance-of-the-suburbs" target="_blank">First home buyer trends: Will 2021 be the renaissance of the suburbs?</a>
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The 'exodus' from capital cities amounts to 0.06% of their populations – similar to recent years – and people are still moving to the cities. What's missing is growth driven by international migrants

Has COVID really caused an exodus from our cities? In fact, moving to the regions is nothing new

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Super-prime properties with tennis courts are tightly held, rarely transacting across Australia, but according to the latest research from Knight Frank these sales spiked in 2020.

The Australian Residential Tennis Court Premium, which assesses the sales performance of Australian super-prime residential properties with a tennis court, found the volume of sales for these properties in 2020 far outstripped 2019.

Super-prime residential property* is the most desirable and most expensive property in a given location, generally defined as the top 1% of each market by value.

Across Australia’s major cities of Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and the Gold Coast, the total value of transactions of super-prime residential sales with tennis courts was $682.8 million in 2020 across 38 transactions, up by 230% on a weak 2019, when there were just 14 transactions.

Knight Frank’s Head of Residential Research, Michelle Ciesielski said every Australian city analysed had overtaken the 2019 sales volume in 2020, with Sydney the strongest performing market.

“In 2020, Sydney saw $436.6 million of tennis court-featured super-prime sales across 22 transactions, although this total volume fell short by 3 per cent of surpassing its highest volume reached in 2018. Melbourne was next with $134.6 million worth of sales last year across nine transactions, although its greatest volume was recorded in 2016 at $156.2 million."

“Perth’s super-prime sales market recorded the greatest uptick of 453 per cent in properties with tennis courts over 2020, although that was across only two sales totalling $41.5 million, with the market much smaller than Sydney and Melbourne. Perth didn’t record any sales of this nature in 2016 and 2018."

“The Gold Coast lifestyle became more popular through COVID-19 resulting in last year being the only year in the past give to register any super-prime sales accommodating tennis courts, with a volume of $50 million – outperforming both the Brisbane and Perth markets, which recorded $20.1 million and $41.5 million in sales value," she concluded.

Based on sales since 2011, the top three suburbs in Australia for super-prime properties with tennis courts were Toorak in Melbourne (39 sales), Bellevue Hill in Sydney (23 sales) and Vaucluse and Mosman, which came equal third with 16 sales.
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Based on sales since 2011, the top three suburbs in Australia for super-prime properties with tennis courts were Toorak in Melbourne and Bellevue Hill in Sydney

Sales of super-prime tennis court properties soared in 2020

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Despite the pandemic challenges of 2020, the rising importance of environmental credentials for property investors will continue to grow, according to Savills.

Across the globe, governments are making “climate emergency” declarations and commitments to meeting net zero carbon in certain timeframes, the Savills update on 2021 noted.

“Real estate is under the spotlight as the built environment accounts for 40% of carbon emissions across the world,” Sophie Chick, the head of department, Savills World Research wrote.

“This will present challenges but it’s also an opportunity for real estate investors to make a significant difference,” she noted.

It noted sustained economic recovery was now on the horizon, led by advanced economies where vaccines are being introduced first. 

“This should fuel wider real estate investor confidence,” Chick forecast.

Global GDP growth in 2021 is forecast to be the fastest in 40 years, according to Oxford Economics, albeit only enough to return global GDP to pre-crisis levels.

The report noted many advanced economies have taken a ‘whatever it takes’ approach to supporting economies, with ultra-low interest rates and quantitative easing programmes. 

“These low interest rates will support real estate investment into 2021. 

“Unlike during the global financial crisis, banks today are less geared, while non-bank lenders have expanded significantly. 

“This provides borrowers with greater options in the recovery,” Chick suggested.

It noted travel restrictions and broader economic uncertainty led to a fall in deal volumes in 2020.

In the 12 months to November 2020, global investment volumes were down by 28% compared to the same period in 2019, although not all sectors felt it equally. 

The industrial and residential sectors saw more modest falls in volumes, gaining market share to capture 21% and 28% of total investment, respectively (see chart). 

<img alt="" height="1120" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2021-02-08_at_3.58.35_pm.png" width="1000">

“The resilience of these sectors in the face of structural change means that’s a trend likely to continue in 2021.

“In spite of near-term uncertainty, the long-term appeal of real estate has held for investors, and the number of funds targeting it have continued to rise,” the report co-written with Paul Tostevin, director, Savills World Research noted.

The Savills report noted at the beginning of Q4 2020, there were more than 1,000 funds in market – more than double the number in January 2016, according to Preqin. 

Funds are now targeting almost $300 billion of investments. 

“This suggests investor momentum moving into 2021.” 

“Residential may attract a growing share of global investment, supported by strong underlying fundamentals and cross-border investors growing and consolidating portfolios.” 

<a href="/expert-insights/buying/5-new-sustainable-developments-for-the-environmentally-conscious-buyer-2020" target="_blank">Take a look at five new sustainable developments for the environmentally-conscious investor</a>.
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Savills 2021 investment forecasts reflect the growing importance of environmental, social and governance (ESG) credentials for investors

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