Apartment buyers in New South Wales are set to gain a decade of insurance-backed protection against major building defects, after the NSW Parliament passed the Fair Trading and Building Legislation Amendment Bill 2026.&nbsp;

The Bill establishes decennial defect insurance, known in the market as Latent Defects Insurance (LDI), as an alternative to the existing two-year strata building bond. It cleared the Legislative Council with amendments on Tuesday evening (August 4, 2026), with the Legislative Assembly agreeing to those amendments shortly after.

Under the reform, eligible developers can satisfy their statutory bond obligation by taking out an approved decennial-style policy that gives owners 10 years of cover for major structural defects from completion, claimable directly, without first having to pursue developers or builders through costly legal action.&nbsp;

The change forms the final tranche of amendments arising from the 2021 statutory review of the Strata Schemes Management Act 2015 and related legislation.

Resilience Insurance, which originated the cover in Australia and has delivered it in NSW since 2022, welcomed the passage and credited the NSW Government for delivering it.

“This is protection apartment buyers have needed for a long time, and the credit for delivering it belongs to the NSW Government,”&nbsp;said Corey Nugent, CEO of Resilience Insurance.

“Minister Chanthivong and his team have shown real leadership in replacing an outdated two-year bond with cover that matches the lifespan of the buildings people are buying into. Reform like this is what good, evidence-based regulation looks like.”

Resilience has delivered LDI in NSW since 2022, protecting thousands of apartments, giving the State, and now the country, real-world evidence of how decade-long, no-fault protection works in practice.

The reform also places NSW within a wider national shift.

NSW is the third jurisdiction to put decennial cover into law. The ACT legislated for it in 2024, with the scheme taking effect in late 2025, and Victoria passed its own framework on 17 June. Between them, the three cover the majority of Australia's apartment market.

The reform commences once the legislation is proclaimed, which is expected in the coming weeks. From that point, developers of Class 2 residential apartment buildings can meet their statutory obligation with an approved decennial policy in place of the bond.

Buyers who purchased into projects that took out the cover early are among the first in the country to take keys to apartments carrying decade-long structural protection.

“With the legislation passed, the focus now turns to making it work for buyers,”&nbsp;Nugent said.

“There are already thousands of apartments in NSW covered by this insurance, bought by developers who moved early. The question every buyer should be asking in a display suite is a simple one: does this building come with 10-year defect cover, and who stands behind it?&nbsp;

“We look forward to working with the Government and the Building Commission in coming weeks as the framework moves to implementation, and to sharing what we have learned over the past four years so the protection reaches owners as smoothly and quickly as possible.”

Other states are working through their own reform programs. Western Australia has indicated that decennial cover is within consideration a later stage of its reform sequence, and Queensland has been examining the settings as it looks at the development pipeline ahead of the 2032 Olympics.

Resilience Insurance acknowledges the NSW Government’s continued focus on strengthening consumer protection while supporting housing delivery across the State.

Fast Facts: What the reform means

<ul style="color:#222222; font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:small; font-style:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; text-align:start; white-space:normal; background-color:#ffffff; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-color:initial">
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">Proven at scale:&nbsp;Decennial cover has operated in NSW since 2022, protecting thousand of apartments.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">10 years of cover:&nbsp;Protection for major structural defects runs for a decade from completion, claimable directly and with no legal action required.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">An alternative to the bond:&nbsp;Eligible developers can meet their statutory obligation with an approved decennial-style policy in place of the 2% strata building bond.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">Part of a national shift:&nbsp;The ACT has had decennial provisions in force since 2025 and Victoria passed its framework in June. NSW now joins them.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">No-fault, first resort:&nbsp;Owners corporations claim directly from the insurer without first having to establish who is liable for the defect.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">Cost-competitive:&nbsp;At approximately 1.8% of build cost, LDI is typically priced below the 2% bond while offering broader, longer protection.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">Market position:&nbsp;Resilience originated LDI in Australia and has delivered it in NSW since 2022.</li>
</ul>

Fast Facts: What is Resilience LDI?

<ul style="color:#222222; font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:small; font-style:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; text-align:start; white-space:normal; background-color:#ffffff; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-color:initial">
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">Resilience Latent Defects Insurance (LDI):&nbsp;Covers major structural defects for 10 years from completion.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">Consumer-first:&nbsp;Direct claim access, no need for lengthy legal action.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">Cost advantage:&nbsp;At approximately 1.8% of build cost, LDI is typically priced below the traditional 2% Strata Bond while offering broader protection.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">Market leader:&nbsp;&nbsp;Resilience Insurance originated LDI in Australia and is the national market leader.</li>
</ul>

Joel Robinson

NSW parliament passes 10-year defect insurance laws for new apartment buyers

Builder-developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mcnab-developments">McNab</a> has wasted little time reshaping one of South Brisbane's most significant undeveloped apartment sites after acquiring the property earlier this year.&nbsp;

McNab has lodged plans to scrap an existing approval for two 30-storey towers and instead deliver a single 28-storey residential building, preserving part of the site for a future development opportunity.

The proposal, lodged over <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-peel-street-south-brisbane-qld-4101">64 Peel Street and 9 Cordelia Street</a>, is for a residential-led mixed-use development comprising 124 apartments above a landscaped podium, alongside a boundary realignment that preserves part of the land for a future residential project.

<img alt="First look: McNab resets decade-old South Brisbane approval with 124-apartment tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="743bf564-3f8f-45fc-b8d3-bbf18f5b628f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/mcnab%20Peel%20st%20podium.png?VersionId=EhCxGrVn_VFH3qTbKnI4WppGwaMnOn0t" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hayball">Hayball</a>, the development will deliver 119 two-bedroom and five three-bedroom apartments across 23 residential levels. A five-level podium will accommodate 135 car spaces, while the ground floor will include a 66 sqm commercial tenancy, an activated residential lobby with work-from-home spaces, and a publicly accessible landscaped plaza linking Cordelia and Peel streets.&nbsp;

Communal amenities will span Level 6 and the rooftop, including indoor and outdoor recreation spaces, a swimming pool, barbecue facilities, kitchen and dining areas, lawn space, sauna, steam room and yoga facilities.

The application also proposes a boundary realignment to create a standalone 1,290 sqm development lot while retaining an adjacent parcel for future redevelopment, allowing the balance of the site to contribute additional housing over time.

Hayball said the architecture has been shaped by the site's elevated corner position at the intersection of Peel and Cordelia streets and Brisbane's subtropical climate.

The design incorporates generous landscaped setbacks, a masonry podium wrapped with planting, large north-facing balconies, and a slender tower profile intended to maximise natural light, cross ventilation and long-range views. The rooftop has been conceived as a wellness-focused retreat overlooking Brisbane, with amenities positioned to capture views towards Mount Coot-tha and the CBD.

<img alt="First look: McNab resets decade-old South Brisbane approval with 124-apartment tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c5f99e84-6ad8-4a87-82d1-869685b754d2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/mcnab%20tower%20perspective.png?VersionId=Gw0IuJaSAlk.tvGBxInhZOcQAdIB..2b" />

The planning submission positions the proposal as a response to both changing market conditions and Brisbane's Kurilpa Sustainable Growth Precinct planning reforms.

McNab acquired the site after the previous approval was granted, with the existing scheme no longer reflecting current residential market demands, economic conditions, construction challenges, construction efficiencies or the quality of development outcome now being pursued, the planning report noted.

McNab continues to expand its residential development pipeline across Brisbane and the Gold Coast. The developer recently launched The Tannery in West End, securing more than 60 per cent of apartments before the project's public release. It is also delivering Elements Budds Beach in Surfers Paradise and Lucia Highgate Hill, an eight-apartment boutique development overlooking the Brisbane River.

McNab resets decade-old South Brisbane approval with 124-apartment tower

A steeply sloping Bellevue Hill site is set to accommodate a new mid-rise apartment development, with plans lodged for 20 homes that respond to the site's dramatic topography.

The proposal for the consolidated land at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/138a-140-bellevue-road-bellevue-hill-nsw-2023">138A-140 Bellevue Road</a> has been designed by Sydney architecture practice Common Office, which has used the site’s substantial fall to distribute the building’s scale and unlock 20 apartments without presenting the full height to the street.&nbsp;

“The unique design strategy leverages the site’s substantial topographical fall to facilitate increased density, presenting a seven-storey profile to Bellevue Road while rising to 10 storeys at the rear,” Common Office said in its architectural design report.

The apartment mix spans one, two, three- and four-bedroom residences. Four two-bedroom apartments are designated as affordable housing, while the plans also include two adaptable dwellings. The mix is majority three-beds, with the typical three-bed apartment offering around 144 sqm internally, with balconies of around 15 sqm.

The affordable housing component represents 15 per cent of the residential floor area and allows the project to access additional height and floor space under the NSW Government’s in-fill affordable housing provisions. The site also falls within the inner area of the Low and Mid-Rise Housing Policy because it is within 400 metres walking distance of Double Bay Town Centre.

<img alt="First Look: Plans lodged for topography-led affordable housing project in Bellevue Hill" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1230d0f-3bfa-4a11-abaf-0928c66ef345" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Bellevue%20da.png?VersionId=dZeMK3P.OutGjN8ycjsxm8uNsj_QFWQv" />

Common Office has arranged the building around a masonry podium and a lighter upper volume, drawing on two recurring elements of Bellevue Hill’s established architecture: sandstone bases and the vertical proportions of local Inter-war Art Deco apartment buildings.

“The proposal is governed by a holistic design language that reconciles the solid horizontal masonry of the neighbourhood’s podiums with the elegant verticality of its Art Deco heritage,” the architect said.

“The building maintains a consistent rhythmic logic utilising deep recesses and a sophisticated material transition to break down the 10-storey scale into a series of articulated, human-scale volumes.”

<img alt="First Look: Plans lodged for topography-led affordable housing project in Bellevue Hill" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0147f503-1af1-4d51-97fb-c2f1cba63a9d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Bellevue%20bldg.png?VersionId=GoW7q3NlK67OpnePXhk7zvklrlKb72Qc" />

Large-format sandstone tiles will define the lower levels, establishing a robust base that negotiates the change in elevation from Bellevue Road. Above, red-tinted precast concrete frames, recessed balconies, anodised aluminium screens and expanded metal details will create a more vertically expressed façade. Integrated planter beds will introduce greenery across balcony edges and recessed sections of the building.

The elongated northern façade has been divided into three recessed vertical masses to reduce its perceived length. Triangular window elements and metal privacy screens reference the geometry of nearby Art Deco buildings while controlling overlooking toward surrounding homes. The southern elevation will incorporate further privacy screening, landscaped edges and deep balconies to maintain light and ventilation.

<img alt="First Look: Plans lodged for topography-led affordable housing project in Bellevue Hill" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e8679cf1-18bc-4447-8a0f-0052b94ab83c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Bellevue%20da%20rooftop.png?VersionId=5SQqQqRFf76rvE2p1TbxJSweMN70AIbc" />

Private and communal landscaping is distributed throughout the development. A landscaped garden apartment is positioned within the lower portion of the site, while a communal terrace on Level 5 will include a central timber deck, barbecue facilities, resident planting plots and areas for outdoor dining and informal gatherings.

Common Office described the terrace as an elevated sanctuary designed to capture district views and sunlight. Its planting strategy incorporates endemic species associated with the Eastern Suburbs Banksia Scrub, extending the landscape vertically through the building and providing habitat for local flora and fauna.

A second communal outdoor area is proposed at roof level, with built-in seating, paved gathering areas and perimeter planting.

Bellevue Hill is enjoying renewed momentum in the new apartment market, with several boutique developments recently launched and currently under construction. Positive Investment Enterprise is delivering the 16-apartment Kew Palm House on Birriga Road, while Chanine Developments is also under construction at Florian, a 36-apartment project on Banksia Road.

&nbsp;

Bellevue Hill is enjoying renewed momentum in the new apartment market, with several boutique developments recently launched and currently under construction.

First Look: Apartment development pitched for Bellevue Hill, Double Bay fringe

South Brisbane's apartment pipeline continues to build momentum, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/trk-property-group">TRK Property Group</a> lodging plans for a 161-apartment tower on Montague Road as developers accelerate investment across the Kurilpa Sustainable Growth Precinct.

The proposal for 176–186 Montague Road would replace an existing office building with a 20-storey residential tower designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, adding to a growing pipeline of high-density projects reshaping one of Brisbane's fastest-evolving inner-city precincts.

The project has been conceived as a "living building", featuring a flowing tower form, extensive vertical landscaping, and generous communal spaces that respond to the evolving Kurilpa Sustainable Growth Precinct.

TRK Property Group Development Director Matt Kan said the project reflected the confidence developers have in South Brisbane's long-term future.

"South Brisbane is entering an incredibly exciting period, and we see Montague Road sitting right at the heart of that evolution," Kan said.

"With the former Visy site directly opposite us and significant investment planned throughout the broader Kurilpa precinct, there is a real sense of momentum around this part of the city and what it will become over the coming years.

"For TRK, this is an opportunity to be part of that next chapter and deliver a project that responds to where the precinct is heading, while contributing to the continued evolution of Brisbane's river edge."

<img alt="First look: TRK Property joins South Brisbane apartment surge with Montague Road tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="590fe1ad-f892-4446-a679-80e33a16d029" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/TRK%20tower%20facade.png?VersionId=uOJStrcKpyHFcPE1w6_9SMAFzVMCcZll" />

The scheme includes a mix of one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, incorporating multi-purpose rooms in selected residences to provide additional flexibility for home offices or expanded living areas. The proposed mix comprises 15 one-bedroom, 13 one-bedroom plus MPR, 73 two-bedroom, 26 two-bedroom plus MPR, 30 three-bedroom, and four four-bedroom apartments.

Rather than adopting a conventional rectilinear tower, COX Architecture has developed a sculpted form inspired by the movement of the Brisbane River.

"The proposal has been designed by COX Architecture as a 'living building' that responds to the site's riverine setting, floodplain history and evolving urban context within the Kurilpa Sustainable Growth Precinct," the planning report states.

"The architectural form draws from the fluid nature of the Brisbane River, with a curved and undulating tower form that creates a varied architectural edge and avoids a conventional rectilinear tower expression."

The podium has also been designed as an architectural feature rather than a conventional parking structure, with cascading planting, screening and natural-toned materials softening its appearance. Resident parking is elevated above ground level to address the site's flood constraints, while habitable apartments sit above flood planning levels. Upper-level communal facilities are designed to accommodate shelter-in-place arrangements during major flood events.

<img alt="First look: TRK Property joins South Brisbane apartment surge with Montague Road tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="01fa15d0-90df-46c7-9555-7941fc45373c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/TRK%20podium.png?VersionId=mHyua.w1pHGBt9qEdWzrlsv.leztUCwO" />

Communal amenity is a major focus of the proposal. Around 1,815 sqm of shared resident space is proposed across the ground floor, level 19 and the rooftop, including co-working areas, indoor and outdoor recreation spaces, wellness facilities, dining and gathering areas, lawn spaces, a rooftop pool and spa, and extensive landscaping. At street level, a landscaped forecourt and approximately 345 sqm of publicly accessible open space along Montague Road are intended to improve the pedestrian experience while activating the building's frontage.

The development will provide 163 car spaces, including 152 resident bays and 11 visitor spaces, together with 144 bicycle spaces incorporating resident storage, visitor parking, bicycle maintenance facilities and e-mobility charging infrastructure.

The site sits within one of Brisbane's fastest-changing inner-city precincts, less than two kilometres from the CBD and within easy reach of South Bank, West End, the Queensland Cultural Centre and extensive public transport connections. The Kurilpa Sustainable Growth Precinct planning framework is encouraging higher-density residential development to help meet Brisbane's housing supply targets while supporting walkable, transit-oriented neighbourhoods.

TRK Property joins South Brisbane apartment surge with Montague Road tower plans

Article summary

<ul data-end="785" data-start="311">
	<li data-end="459" data-section-id="5hbcyr" data-start="311">Pikos Group has released the five-penthouse collection at Skye Kangaroo Point, headlined by a two-storey sky home spanning more than 1,000 sqm.</li>
	<li data-end="561" data-section-id="1p7lq8n" data-start="460">Early buyer interest suggests the residences could set a new Queensland apartment price record.</li>
	<li data-end="667" data-section-id="1y70z0l" data-start="562">The collection includes four move-in ready penthouses and the highly customised Skye One residence.</li>
	<li data-end="785" data-section-id="yvm0y1" data-start="668">The release caps one of Bri​sbane's most ambitious luxury apartment developments overlooking the Brisbane River.</li>
</ul>

<hr data-end="790" data-start="787" />
Pikos Group has released the five-penthouse collection at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/skye-residences-by-pikos-kangaroo-point-8-river-terrace-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Skye by Pikos</a> development in Kangaroo Point, with early buyer interest indicating the flagship residences could eclipse every apartment sale previously recorded in Queensland.

The collection crowns the luxury riverfront development with five residences, including four completed penthouses and Skye One, a two-level sky home spanning more than 1,000 sqm that will be tailored to its eventual owner.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374075]

Wanting to offer a fully customisable home, Pikos is offering Skye One as a blank canvas, allowing the buyer to work alongside the developer's design team to customise the home's layout, finishes and internal spaces.

The residence will feature a 247 sqm private rooftop terrace with its own swimming pool, sauna, steam room, outdoor kitchen and multiple entertaining areas overlooking the Brisbane River and CBD skyline.

The remaining four penthouses have been completed and are ready for immediate occupation, each offering four bedrooms, expansive open-plan living areas, soaring ceilings and private lift access.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374059]

One of the defining features throughout the project is its use of Roman Classic Travertine, with more than 20,000 sqm of the natural stone imported from Italy after being personally selected by Pikos Group Founder and Executive Director Pedro Pikos, interior designer Julie Williamson and third-generation stone specialist Mario Caucci.

Pikos said the penthouse collection represented the culmination of the company's long-term vision for Skye.

"True legacy isn't measured by what we build today, but by what endures tomorrow," Pikos said.

"Our ambition is to create places that become more valuable with time, enrich the lives of generations, and stand as timeless landmarks long after we've stepped away."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374060]

Williamson said the interiors were inspired by the natural character of Kangaroo Point and the Brisbane River rather than international design trends.

"Materiality tells the story of a place," Williamson said.

"We looked to the movement of the Brisbane River, the texture of the cliff face and the warmth of the surrounding landscape to create interiors that feel understated, enduring and unmistakably Brisbane."

Positioned above the Kangaroo Point cliffs, Skye places residents within walking distance of Howard Smith Wharves, South Bank and James Street while offering uninterrupted river and city views.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=90059]

Brisbane's next apartment price record? Pikos unveils Skye's exclusive penthouse collection

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Sydney is currently blanketed by smoke haze from severe bushfires that have burned through New South Wales.
Air pollution levels on Thursday reached <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-21/sydney-smoke-from-fires-unlikely-to-clear-today-authorities-warn/11723876" target="_blank">hazardous levels</a> for the second time in a week. The NSW Rural Fire Service has warned that haze could be around for days.
On Thursday, several locations in Sydney had air quality index levels above 1,000. Anything over 200 is considered hazardous. Health authorities in Sydney have asked children to stay indoors.
You might be surprised to hear that while air pollution is <a href="https://www.who.int/health-topics/air-pollution" target="_blank">bad for our health</a>, it can also be bad for the economy.
In our forthcoming study in the <a href="https://fbe.unimelb.edu.au/research/streams/decision-making-and-markets/market-impact-of-chinese-haze-events" target="_blank">Journal of Corporate Finance</a> we show that air pollution impairs forecasts by financial analysts. This has implications for our financial system, which relies on accurate and timely information.
Air pollution has been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/12/air-pollution-rising-at-an-alarming-rate-in-worlds-cities" target="_blank">rising worldwide</a>. Currently, four in every five city dwellers are exposed to dangerous levels of outdoor pollution. We know that as well as harming physical health, it hurts <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.102.7.3652" target="_blank">worker productivity</a>.
We investigated whether it also harms the decision-making ability of financial analysts. This is important because their reports play a crucial role in the functioning of capital markets.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302898/original/file-20191121-515-1iebhwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302898/original/file-20191121-515-1iebhwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Beijing smoke haze, November 2018. ROMAN PILIPEY/EPA
China is an ideal place to study it.
Over the past 20 years China has faced severe air pollution, including the infamous “<a href="https://qz.com/159105/2013-will-be-remembered-as-the-year-that-deadly-suffocating-smog-consumed-china/" target="_blank">airpocalypse</a>” which struck Bejing in 2013, when average air quality levels remained hazardous for much of the year.
Recently China has made headway in reducing air pollution, but it remains a significant issue.
China is not alone – emerging and developing nations such as Brazil, India and Iran face similar problems – so our study is useful for understanding the economic effects of pollution elsewhere.
We examined the pollution levels in different cities on the days Chinese companies announced their earnings.
<h2>The more hazy the location, the more hazy the thinking</h2>
Most Chinese companies are followed by analysts in a number of Chinese cities. On earnings days, some are experiencing haze and others are not.
We were able to examine more than 59,000 publicly available forecasts from more than 2,000 analysts. We used published phone numbers to identify their locations.
We found those that were exposed to haze produced less bold forecasts, less timely forecasts, and less accurate forecasts
Analysts exposed to pollution were
<ul>
<li>
4.8% less likely to differentiate their forecasts from those of other analysts
</li>
<li>
4% less likely to incorporate the new information from the announcements into their forecasts
</li>
<li>
14% less likely to revise their forecasts at all within two days the announcements.
</li>
</ul>
<h2>Hazy thinking matters</h2>
We are not sure why. We know that air pollution has negative effects on physical health and <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25673816">mood</a> and we know that financial analysts are exposed to pollution not only when outside, but also at home and in the office, since filtering systems <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02786820117903" target="_blank">cannot completely clean the air</a>.
Investors rely on analysts to provide information. Earnings announcements are key information events. Poor forecasts resulting from those events are an indirect negative effect of high levels of pollution.
Those indirect negative effects might be widespread, extending as far as manufacturing, schools and services industries. They add to the case for cleaning up air.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/naomi-soderstrom-892532" target="_blank">Naomi Soderstrom</a>, Professor of Accounting and Deputy Head of Department, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722" target="_blank">University of Melbourne</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chao-kevin-li-892606" target="_blank">Chao Kevin Li</a>, Lecturer School of Accounting, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/smoke-haze-hurts-financial-markets-as-well-as-the-environment-127511" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Smoke haze hurts financial markets as well as the environment

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The Canberra retail market has continued to display stable sales and leasing activity throughout 2019 with early indications of market strengthening taking place, underpinned by the recent interest rate reduction by the Reserve Bank, low unemployment, vacancy levels below the ten year average and continued population growth, according to the latest retail report from Herron Todd White.
The property valuation firm found retail sale statistics issued in August by the ABS indicated a growth rate of 1.9 per cent (above the national average) in seasonally adjusted terms for the nation’s capital.
It should be noted that while many aspects of the retail market appear positive, a continued divergence between new and old offerings has led to an increased disparity in both demand and rental results.
Non-centrally located and dated stock, often in older local shopping precincts, has seen a spike in vacancies and a softening of rental expectations.
Increases to municipal and council rates continue to be a major concern in the Canberra property sector with these increases often outweighing CPI rental increases.
HTW valuers said, "the market has responded, with local agents indicating that more net leases and increases to recoverable outgoings are being negotiated."
"The outlook for the Canberra retail market is for slow to medium take-up levels to continue over the next 12 months, with a need for incentives to continue," they concluded.
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Canberra retail market appears positive: HTW Retail

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A 2018 study by Herron Todd White (commissioned by the Property Council of Australia) found that there was about 220,000 square metres of general retail space in the greater Darwin area.
They found that this figure includes properties varying from neighbourhood style centres of two to three shops through to regional retail centres such as Casuarina Square. Of this 220,000 square metres, about 68,000 square metres (or 30 per cent) has come on line in the past two to three years.
HTW valuers said, "unfortunately, this large increase in supply has come on line at a time when Darwin’s population is experiencing a significant decline, with the weaker economy seeing many Darwinites heading interstate in search of work."
"What we have seen has been a drift of businesses to these newer centres, attracted by strong tenant incentives and a desire to follow the ant trail of shoppers."
"As a result of this displacement, vacancies have sprung up, particularly in Darwin CBD and Palmerston CBD. It is difficult to see trading conditions improving in these locations until the population begins to increase," they added.
It is expected that there will be limited rental and capital growth opportunities in Darwin retail centres, especially secondary centres without a major anchor, for the next three to five years, HTW forecast.
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Darwin retail sector suffers from declining population: HTW Retail

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The Cairns retail property market passed through the bottom of the cycle during the course of 2014, but the limited recovery thus far means that the retail property market remains relatively flat, according to the latest retail report from valuation firm Herron Todd White.
The property valuation firm found that it must be also said that retail property sales in Cairns are extremely sporadic, with most sales involving retail property of mixed use retail and office buildings or tenant buyouts of single premises.
The level of general commercial property sales in Cairns, inclusive of retail and commercial office premises, highlights that activity in the Cairns commercial market remains well below the levels achieved in the 2003 to 2007 period.
Sales volumes have been gradually rebuilding over the past nine years, but are still only averaging around 90 to 100 sales per annum.
The HTW report authors said, "median prices paid specifically for strata titled premises have increased mildly over the past seven years, but our general impression is that prices per square metre of floor area are mostly stable within the $2,500 to $4,500 range for strata units."
"High exposure CBD retail space remains reasonably well occupied, but vacancies are more noticeable in the lesser exposure locations and on the CBD fringe. Rents have remained generally stable, showing ranges of $600 to $800 per square metre per annum for prime CBD space and $1,000 to $1,750 per square metre per annum in key tourist precincts such as the Cairns Esplanade."
"Blue chip retail located within the main Esplanade tourist strip as well as the central business district show reasonably low vacancies, though there is also limited demand from new businesses."
"There remains good investor demand for well leased properties which rarely come onto the market."
"The Cairns retail property market overall has experienced little change thus far during 2019 and is expected to see little change for the remainder of the year," they concluded.
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Cairns retail property market remains stagnant: HTW Retail

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Hotelier Sam Arnaout has sold his King Street, Sydney CBD building for $23.5 million.
It's believed to have been bought by a luxury retailer who had his eye on a heritage building.
Bidding opened at $18 million, with nine bids driving the price to $23.5 million, when it was knocked down by auctioneer Damien Cooley, reportedly to the luxury watch boutique Swiss Concept owner.
The freehold property, marketed as the perfect office HQ by Colliers International agents Miron Solomons and Harry Bui in conjunction with Savills agent Jordan Lee.
Hermes, Louis Vuitton, Dior, Cartier, Boss, Bally, Tiffany &amp; Co, Bulgari, Frank Muller, Chopard, Zegna all neighbour the property.
The 1887-built heritage-listed property spans six levels with a 310 sqm area. It was designed by architects Sheering &amp; Hennessy.
Hermes recently spent $100 million on the nearby 155 King Street.
Miron Solomons of Colliers International said this is a record breaking result for Sydney’s lux hotspot.
“It’s not often that such a high calibre asset goes to auction in the Sydney CBD and it was impressive to see the who’s who of Sydney’s property market whipping out their calculators and cheque books."
According to Jordan Lee, of Savills Australia, the on market campaign saw a range of interest from around Australia and across Asia Pacific.
“We had a lot of High Net Worth privates looking for flagship assets and a lot of clients in Asia hoping to secure a flagship presence in the Sydney CBD” he said.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

King Street, Sydney CBD building sells for $23.5 million

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Channel Nine is selling two empty shell apartments in the Gatwick Hotel, the site of the 2018 series of The Block.
Both stripped two-bedroom units are on the ground floor.
They are for sale with proposed floor plans.
The smaller of the two, apartment G01, has 128 square metres of floor space.
It has price expectations of about $800,000.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/11/18/The%20Gatwick%202.jpg" alt="">
Neighbouring G02 is bigger, with 138 square metres of floor space along with a 46-metre outdoor area.
It has price expectations of $900,000.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/11/18/The%20Gatwick%203.jpg" alt="">
The former boarding house, built in 1937, had previously belonged to sisters Rose Banks and Yvette Kelly.
They used it to provide accommodation for needy residents, however after developing its “hotel hell” reputation, they sold the building to Channel 9 in 2017 for $10 million.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/11/18/The%20Gatwick%201.jpg" alt="">
St Kilda’s median apartment price is $512,000, while the median house price is $1.32 million.
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Channel Nine lists gutted units in The Block's Gatwick Hotel 

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Stockland has partnered with Amazon to offer Amazon Locker, a secure, self-service kiosk for parcel pickups.
Stockland has recently installed Amazon Locker across a number of retail locations in NSW and Victoria.
Locations include the Piccadilly Centre in Sydney CBD, Stockland Green Hills in Maitland, Stockland The Pines in Doncaster East as well as Stockland centres in Merrylands, Baulkham Hills, Balgowlah, Glendale, Nowra, Shellharbour, Wetherill Park, Point Cook and Wendouree, and others. 
Amazon Locker provides customers with the flexibility to pick up a package at a convenient time, rather than having it delivered to a home or business address.
Shipping to an Amazon Locker at Stockland is available at no additional cost.
During checkout, customers will select a Locker at the nearest Stockland location as their shipping address. Once their package is ready for pickup, customers will receive an e-mail along with a barcode that they’ll use to pick up their package during store hours.   
“Our customers continue to demonstrate their desire for innovative in-centre features, tech-integrated amenity and convenience led initiatives to enhance their everyday shopping experience. It is integral that Australian shopping centres continue to evolve and adapt to retailer, customer and global demands,” Stockland Group Executive and CEO of Commercial Property, Louise Mason said. 
“This partnership with Amazon is another way we are curating our offering to what our customers really want. We view online shopping on platforms such as Amazon as an extension of what our retail town centres can provide customers.
“At Stockland we believe the future of retail is about creating places that are at the heart of communities, provide exceptional convenience and offer tailored and unique experiences for customers.”
 
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Stockland partners with Amazon Locker

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Coles has sold their neighbourhood shopping centre, Coles Amaroo Village in Canberra.
Located in the northern suburbs of Canberra, the property was sold for $29.5 million on a net yield of 6.25 per cent (fully leased).
80% of the gross floor area in the centre is secured to Coles and Liquorland on a brand-new long-term lease. 
There are also eight specialty shops including a pharmacy, real estate agency, barber, Indian Grocer and various food offerings. 
The 4,594 sqm GLA centre was sold by Steven Lerche and Nic Purdue of Savills Australia and Philip Gartland of Stonebridge.
Savills Australia National Director of Retail Investments, Steven Lerche said “Amaroo Village is an outstanding convenience and non-discretionary retail hub, ideally located within the town centre. Collectively, we received over 230 enquiries and multiple bids, with the successful buyer being interstate." 
“The yield of 6.25% is consistent with other similar strata transactions around the country, confirming that the market for well leased convenience based retail property remains firmly on the investor radar” he said.   
“With interest rates continuing to drop, commercial property investment in Australia will remain attractive to both local and off shore capital. Investor demand will remain strong and property prices will hold firm” he said.
Savills Australia will be managing the shopping centre.
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Coles sells Amaroo Village Shopping in ACT for $29.5 million

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GUEST OBSERVATION
What do a billionaire, a former vice president, and a US democratic socialist have to do with Australia’s nearly three-decade run of economic growth?
More than you might think.
The race for the Democratic Party’s 2020 Presidential nomination is far from over – in fact voting in the first state (Iowa) doesn’t even begin until January. But Senator Elizabeth Warren has become the front-runner in betting markets and national polls, pulling ahead of former vice president Joe Biden.
Warren is running on a “democratic socialist” platform of banning private health insurance, imposing a wealth tax and more rigorously examining proposed trade agreements. Biden is much more centrist – he was Barack Obama’s vice president after all – but he is struggling to maintain the lead he once held.
This has a number of people freaked out. Among them is former New York mayor (and former Republican) Mike Bloomberg, who has filed paperwork to get himself into the Democratic primary race.
Bloomberg is a pro-market, socially liberal, three-term mayor of New York. He amassed a US$50 billion fortune by creating the category-killing <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/company/stories/understanding-bloomberg-and-the-terminal/" target="_blank">Bloomberg terminal</a> for financial data and securities trading.
He has taken progressive stands on gun control, gay rights and women’s reproductive rights.
And on climate change he spent half a billion dollars on climate mitigation projects as well as campaigning with the environment group <a href="https://www.sierraclub.org/" target="_blank">Sierra Club</a> (successfully) for coal mines to be closed.
Bloomberg’s path to the Democratic nomination is far from assured, but in Australia someone like him would be in the mould of prime ministers past.
And that tells us something important about our internationally unusual long run of economic growth.
Straight down the middle
Since Bill Hayden became Labor (and opposition) leader in 1977 and put to rest the economic upheaval of the Whitlam era, Australia’s two major political parties have maintained, for the most part, staunchly centrist economic policies. They’ve combined the virtues of markets with a strong social safety set.
The <a href="https://theconversation.com/hawke-was-our-larrikin-but-also-our-reformer-117308" target="_blank">Hawke-Keating government famously opened up the Australian economy</a> to the world: floating the Australian dollar, deregulating the banking system, slashing tariffs, and privatising sleepy state-owned enterprises.
John Howard not only continued this legacy but introduced the Goods and Services Tax – a much more efficient form of taxation than had existed – and successfully negotiated the <a href="https://dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/in-force/ausfta/Pages/australia-united-states-fta.aspx" target="_blank">Australia-US Free Trade Agreement</a>.
And though the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd government may have lacked stability, it did not lack major economic achievements.
Rudd and then Treasury boss Ken Henry <a href="http://research.economics.unsw.edu.au/richardholden/assets/did-labor-really-save-us-from-the-gfc-we-ask-an-expert.pdf" target="_blank">acted decisively with stimulus and bank guarantees</a> to avoid the economic disaster that hit most of the rest of the world.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301692/original/file-20191114-77315-1hc4e9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301692/original/file-20191114-77315-1hc4e9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Total annual greenhouse gas emissions excluding emissions from land use, land use change and forestry. <a class="source" href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/jan/09/australias-emissions-are-rising-its-time-for-this-government-to-quick-pretending" target="_blank">Greg Jericho, Guardian</a>
Gillard introduced a carbon tax that had an almost immediate effect in reducing Australia’s emissions.
While the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison government’s stance on climate change has been rightly criticised (often by yours truly), it has continued to enact free trade agreements, the most recent of which, the <a href="https://dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/negotiations/rcep/Pages/regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership.aspx" target="_blank">Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership</a>, might be <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-trumps-tariffs-legal-under-the-wto-it-seems-not-and-they-are-overturning-70-years-of-global-leadership-121425" target="_blank">truly transformational</a>.
Sometimes veering to the sides
Although that centrism has served Australia well socially and economically, there have been moments where policy looked like it would veer away from the centre.
Labor opposed the goods and services tax. The current government has flirted with government guarantees for new coal-fired power plants, which was a policy more in the spirit of Marx and Lenin than Howard and Costello.
Holding the centre
The current depressing state of the Australian economy (pun intended) might provide the biggest test yet to centrist economic policy.
Wage growth is sluggish (Wednesday’s figures showed annual growth slipping from a historically low <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/inextricably-linked-wage-growth-flatlines-as-report-shows-jobless-rate-hurting-economy-20191113-p53a94" target="_blank">2.3% to 2.2%</a>) and unemployment is climbing (Thursday’s figures showed the unemployment rate climbing from <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6202.0Main%20Features1Oct%202019?opendocument&amp;tabname=Summary&amp;prodno=6202.0&amp;issue=Oct%202019&amp;num=&amp;view=" target="_blank">5.2% to 5.3%</a>).
There’s pressure from both the left and the right to “do something”.
Cutting immigration, moving away from free trade, propping up failing industries, or offering selective wage rises to particular sectors (such as childcare workers) are among the “somethings” that have been on the table or partially implemented.
The Hawke-Keating and Howard-Costello governments sustained centrist economic policy for more than two decades.
They did it not only through a series of sound policy choices, but also through a narrative about the virtues of markets coupled with a social safety net.
It’s a narrative under threat. In Australia it hasn’t been drowned out yet.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126918/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-might-straight-down-the-middle-be-the-source-of-our-economic-success-126918" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Might straight down the middle be the source of our economic success?

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GUEST OBSERVATION
It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. (attributed to Danish physicist Niels Bohr)
The difficulty of making predictions has long been known, but the rise of the internet means that it is getting harder to hide the gaps between predictions and reality.
Perhaps the most significant example of repeated failed projections has been the International Energy Agency’s projections of the importance of renewable power – the proportion of electricity generated by solar and wind and other renewable sources other than hydro.
Beginning in 1994, when generation from these sources was negligible, the Agency has produced estimates of the future share of renewables every two years.
Every two years, with striking regularity, the previous estimates have been exceeded (hugely) and the new set has been revised upwards. But never by enough. Each time the upward revision has been inadequate.
This graph, prepared by <a href="https://www.quora.com/q/xwpxpfefwalgifkr/A-modest-proposal-to-the-International-Energy-Authority" target="_blank">Paul Mainwood</a> from IEA reports, illustrates the point:
Projections versus reality
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302056/original/file-20191117-66945-19v9ijz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302056/original/file-20191117-66945-19v9ijz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Reality versus repeated projections of renewables share of electricity generation (ex hydro). <a class="source" href="https://www.quora.com/q/xwpxpfefwalgifkr/A-modest-proposal-to-the-International-Energy-Authority" target="_blank">Paul Mainwood, Quora</a>
The dashed lines represent successive projections from 1994 to 2016.
The solid red line represents the actual growth of non-hydro renewables as a share of total electricity generation.
What can be seen is that eleven times in a row the projected growth in renewables was far too low and had to be upgraded. Eleven times in a row the upgrades weren’t big enough.
As a joke (indicated by the green line) Mainwood “corrected” the 2016 projection for the typical under-projection:
Projections plus “corrected” 2016 projection
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302067/original/file-20191117-66953-1tfh6u0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302067/original/file-20191117-66953-1tfh6u0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Reality versus projections of renewables share of electricity generation (ex hydro) plus 2016 projection corrected for typical undershoot. <a class="source" href="https://www.quora.com/q/xwpxpfefwalgifkr/A-modest-proposal-to-the-International-Energy-Authority" target="_blank">Paul Mainwood</a>
Projections often understate change
Another striking example relates to religious belief. In 2015 the Pew Research Institute released a <a href="https://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050/" target="_blank">report</a> suggesting a gradual decline in Christianity in the United States.
The headline finding for the US:
"Christians will decline from more than three-quarters (75%) of the population in 2010 to two-thirds (66%) in 2050."
Yet only four years later in 2019, Pew released another report with this headline finding about the US:
'In 2018 and 2019, 65% of American adults describe themselves as Christians when asked about their religion, down 12 percentage points over the past decade."
Thus, a decline expected to take forty years had taken place inside ten.
Moreover, Christian affiliation is highest in the older age cohorts, very few members of which will be around in 2050. Looking at the younger cohort born after 1981, only 49% claim a Christian affiliation, a proportion that has declined by 16 percentage points in a decade. Unless that trend is rapidly reversed, or later cohorts experience a religious revival, Christians will be a minority well before 2050.
They enable modellers to escape responsiblity
Faced with outcomes of this kind, modellers often defend themselves by drawing a distinction between “predictions” and “projections”.
A prediction (Latin for “foretelling”) is a claim about what is most likely to happen in the future. By contrast, a projection (“casting forward”) is a model output derived by extrapolating past trends, holding some parameters constant and allowing others to vary.
The International Energy Agency projections were characterised by the assumption that the costs of renewable energy would change only slowly, rather than continuing the extraordinary decline that began in the 1970s.
In the case of the Pew projections, the crucial parameter is conversion rates – the frequency with which people brought up with one religion (including “no religion”) change to another. The Pew projections were based on the assumption conversion rates will remain unchanged.
It is the opposite of the widely-held but controversial “secularisation hypothesis” which states that modernisation leads to increased conversions to “no religion”.
Predictions force them to take responsibility
Projections are useful in the development of models. All models are based on past experience and have to assume that in some respects the future will be like the past. By examining the projections generated under particular assumptions about which variables and parameters will remain constant, it is possible to understand how models works and make modelling choices.
But projections of this kind are of no use in informing people not familiar with the material. They mislead casual readers of the Australia’s budget.
The budget uses both predictions and projections.
For the two years following each budget the Commonwealth uses “forecasts” which it is prepared to stand by, then for the next two it presents mechanical “projections”:
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302072/original/file-20191117-66957-w8vxaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
<a class="source" href="https://www.budget.gov.au/2019-20/content/bp1/index.htm" target="_blank">2019-20 Commonwealth budget, Budget Paper 1</a>
When asked to defend (for example) its wage growth number of 3½%, the treasury points out that it is a mechanical projection rather than a forecast, a distinction lost on all but the most enthusiastic of budget devotees.
In practice it is impossible to separate the two.
Even though both the International Energy Association and Pew describe their estimates as “projections” they are almost invariably <a href="https://www.mining.com/new-iea-report-predicts-surge-in-global-coal-use-2/" target="_blank">treated as</a> <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/future-religion-around-world-one-chart" target="_blank">predictions</a>. 
Since any statement about the future will be treated as a prediction, the only serious option for modellers prepared to be truthful with the public is to bite the bullet and make predictions.
It means working hard to make the best possible estimate of the future paths of all model parameters, and using judgement to take account of everything else.
It’s what those of us looking to experts for guidance deserve.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126734/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/please-no-more-projections-what-we-need-are-predictions-and-theyre-harder-126734" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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