<p>South East Queensland developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a>’s entry into the Gold Coast apartment market has progressed from pipeline to market, with its Chevron Island project Bronze on Chevron now formally available to purchase ahead of a planned 2029 completion.</p>

<p>The 119-apartment development on Mawarra Street marks the Brisbane-headquartered builder-developer’s first residential play in the Gold Coast, following its expansion south from Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> comprises a mix of two-, three- and four-bedroom residences, with pricing starting from just over $1.5 million. The project is being delivered under Gardner Vaughan’s fully integrated model, with the group acting as both developer and builder, a structure it has consistently applied across its South East Queensland portfolio.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367182]</p>

<p>Architecture has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jeremy-ferrier-landscape-design">Jeremy Ferrier</a>. The building presents as a single-tower scheme, with a focus on maximising outlook across both the Surfers Paradise skyline and the Nerang River.</p>

<p>Apartments have been planned with open-plan living zones extending to generous balconies, a response to the site’s dual-aspect positioning between river and ocean. Interiors follow a restrained coastal palette, with two colour schemes offered, and an emphasis on natural light and cross-ventilation.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367181]</p>

<p>Resident amenity is concentrated across more than 1,250 sqm and includes a resort-style pool, gym, yoga lawn and rooftop entertaining areas. A function space with catering facilities forms part of the upper-level offering, alongside north- and south-facing outdoor areas.</p>

<p>Ground level will incorporate two retail tenancies, intended to extend the existing village character of the surrounding streets.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367200]</p>

<p>The project sits within walking distance of Thomas Drive’s established dining strip, while maintaining proximity to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Surfers Paradise</a> beach and broader Gold Coast amenity. The location, positioned on Chevron Island between the river and coastline, has increasingly attracted mid- to high-density development in recent years as the precinct evolves beyond its low-rise origins.</p>

<p>Gardner Vaughan’s move into the Gold Coast was first signalled in 2025, with the group identifying the region as a natural extension of its operations. Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge described the expansion as both “strategic and natural”, citing demand for well-designed apartments in lifestyle-driven markets.</p>

<p>Construction is expected to complete in early 2029.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]</p>


Joel Robinson

Gardner Vaughan brings Bronze on Chevron to market as Gold Coast debut

<p data-end="198" data-start="61">One of the penthouses at Lily Lane, the latest stage of Carrington Place by Ellipse Property, has set a new local apartment price record.</p>

<p data-end="350" data-start="200">The four-bedroom residence, purchased by a local downsizer, sold for $5.75 million—around 75 per cent higher than the previous record of $3.3 million.</p>

<p data-end="461" data-start="352">Over 40 per cent of the first release of apartments at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lily-lane-at-carrington-place-castle-hill-32-carrington-road-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Lily Lane</a> have already been snapped up just six weeks since it launched to the market.</p>

<p data-end="461" data-start="352">&nbsp;</p>

<p>Located at 32 Carrington Road, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/castle-hill-nsw-2154">Castle Hill</a> and designed by award-winning architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ptw">PTW</a>, Lily Lane is directly opposite the Hills Showground Metro station. It offers a total 213 units over two 12-storey towers - a mix of 67 one-bedroom, 100 two-bedroom and 46 three-bedroom apartments - with a ground-floor retail offering.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=368352]</p>

<p>Blake Schulze, National Director – Residential at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/colliers">Colliers</a>, says around 44 per cent of buyers are&nbsp;owner occupiers, with 35 per cent being investors and 21 per cent first homebuyers.</p>

<p>“Developments of this calibre are very rare in the Hills District, and Lily Lane’s sales success demonstrates the depth of demand for over-sized apartments that genuinely compete with freestanding homes," Schulze says.</p>

<p>"We are seeing particular demand from downsizers who want to remain in the area but transition into spacious, high-quality apartment living."</p>

<p>On the penthouse sale, it says it shows buyers&nbsp;are prepared to pay a premium for scale, quality, and direct access to the Metro.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=368351]</p>

<p>One-bedroom apartments are sized from 50-72 sqm with prices starting at $745,000, while two-bedrooms are priced from $990,000 with sizes from 75 to 132 square metres. Three-bedroom floorplans are sized between 97 and 182 sqm,, with prices starting at $1,395,000.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The three remaining penthouses, spanning up to 262 sqm, are priced from $2.9 million.</p>

<p>Over 75 per cent of apartments include dedicated studies, multipurpose rooms or family rooms, with select layouts offering walk-in pantries and laundries. Apartments are appointed with premium Miele appliances including ovens, washing machines, dryers, gas cooktops and dishwashers, while larger residences also incorporate integrated Miele microwaves, Fisher &amp; Paykel integrated refrigerators and five-burner Miele cooktops.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=360285]</p>

<p>Lily Lane will be constructed by award-winning iCIRT-rated builder <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/decode">Decode Group</a>, with construction to commence in mid-2026 and expected to complete early 2029.</p>

<p>Carrington Place comprises more than 800 apartments and is being delivered across multiple stages, with completion expected in 2032. Integrated with neighbouring bushland, the project will feature over 20,000 sq, of outdoor recreational area, including a one-kilometre boardwalk to Fred Caterson Reserve.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The Hills Showground Metro Station is just a two-minute walk away, offering fast connectivity to Sydney’s CBD, North Sydney, Chatswood, Macquarie Park and Norwest Business Park.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151821]</p>


Ellipse sets Castle Hill apartment record with $5.75 million Lily Lane penthouse sale

<p data-end="223" data-start="65">Fresh off completing its Delano Crows Nest development, Lindsay Bennelong has lodged plans for its next project, this time turning its attention to the beach.</p>

<p data-end="431" data-start="225">The developer, founded by Clarendon Homes founder Peter Campbell, is proposing a 37-apartment scheme at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-25-ashburner-street-manly-nsw-2095">17-25 Ashburner Street</a>, Manly, positioned between the southern end of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/manly-nsw-2095">Manly</a> Beach and East Manly Cove.</p>

<p data-end="431" data-start="225">Lindsay Bennelong called on local architecture firm Platform Architects to design the new building, given their success on The Finn, Lindsay Bennelong's current luxury apartment project on North Steyne.<span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="font-family:Aptos, sans-serif"><span style="color:#222222"><span style="font-style:normal"><span style="font-variant-ligatures:normal"><span style="font-weight:400"><span style="white-space:normal"><span style="background-color:#ffffff"><span style="text-decoration-thickness:initial"><span style="text-decoration-style:initial"><span style="text-decoration-color:initial"><i>&nbsp;</i></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p data-end="372" data-start="143">According to the Design Verification Statement by Bridie Gough of Platform Architects, the proposal “relates to the current context but also the desired future character of taller buildings suitable to the new planning controls.”</p>

<p data-end="722" data-start="374">The site has been identified as a Low to Mid-Rise Housing (LMR) location, given its position within 400 metres of the Manly Town Centre E1 Business Zone. The LMR controls are intended to unlock additional housing supply in well-located areas close to public transport, allowing developers to seek increased height limits to support greater density.</p>

<p data-end="884" data-start="724">“The proposal seeks to provide this increased level of housing whilst being respectful of some of the smaller scale buildings also nearby,” the statement reads.</p>

<p data-end="1207" data-start="886">Lindsay Bennelong Development Director Leigh Manser said the project has been carefully aligned with the intent of the LMR controls. The proposal will significantly increase housing yield on the site, replacing four houses and 10 apartments, comprising 25 bedrooms, with 37 new apartments delivering a total of 94 bedrooms.</p>

<p data-end="1487" data-start="1209">“Sydney is in a severe undersupply, and delivering more dwellings and more bedrooms than what currently exists is exactly what the LMR policy is designed to activate,” Manser said, noting that nine of the apartments will be allocated as affordable housing for frontline workers.</p>

<p data-end="1843" data-start="1489">“We have already commenced discussions with our community housing provider to determine the rental levels that frontline workers can realistically afford in this location,” he said. “These will need to sit well below the standard affordable housing benchmark of 20 per cent below market rent, and that has been factored into our feasibility and pricing.”</p>

<p><img alt="Manly" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ad03000f-19f9-48b4-b27d-e85ca800a1da" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%208.41.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=a.txHwCZgbCInlQ6QXbIrI.umvW1T.r8" /></p>

<p data-end="1825" data-start="1664">The design of the building incorporates a wave-like indentation running through the façade, referencing the nearby coastline and anchoring the building within its local context.</p>

<p data-end="1825" data-start="1664">The&nbsp;Design Verification Statement says careful consideration has been given to the articulation of the building, ensuring the bulk is broken down to a more human scale through a defined four-storey podium."</p>

<p data-end="1825" data-start="1664">The scheme includes a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments.</p>

<p data-end="2146" data-start="1962">“The design ensures a high level of amenity, with apartments offering generous private open space, many with expansive views, and all with comfortable proportions."</p>

<p data-end="2146" data-start="1962"><img alt="Bennelong" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6a7f2812-72a1-4959-84b0-997e8cd88aed" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%2010.15.50%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=6iMxU3MkXmHVHAoNhYBjnqgka8CUZNbk" /></p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lindsay-bennelong-developments">Lindsay Bennelong</a>&nbsp;is currently developing Finn Manly, just three full-floor luxury apartments on North Steyne. They recently welcomed residents to its 81-unit Delano Crows Nest development, a&nbsp;carefully scaled infill project designed to bridge&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/crows-nest-nsw-2065">Crows Nest</a>’s lively village centre with its surrounding heritage streets.</p>

<p>Designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ajc-architects">AJC Architects</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/delano-crows-nest-27-57-falcon-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Delano</a>&nbsp;is arranged across three low-rise buildings, incorporating a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom apartments alongside a limited number of townhomes addressing Hayberry Lane. The architectural approach draws on the area’s Art Deco lineage, reinterpreted through contemporary detailing and framed by landscaped communal gardens.</p>

<p>The developer also has a development site in Maroubra.</p>


First look: Lindsay Bennelong's new Manly apartment development revealed

<p>Fifty-nine residences across 37 levels. No more than two per floor. With 80 per cent now sold, what remains at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/madeline-by-mosaic-broadbeach-22-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">Madeline by Mosaic</a> is a short list.</p>

<p>Madeline was always conceived at a scale that sits outside the normal register of Gold Coast apartment living. The residences are half- and full-floor configurations, with the largest spanning more than 400 sqm, dimensions that place them closer to the penthouse end of the market regardless of where they sit in the building.</p>

<p>That scale is the organising principle of everything else: how the floorplans are laid out, how the materials read, how the connection between inside and outside works.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=355941]</p>

<p>The interiors were developed in collaboration with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser &amp; Partners</a>, the architecture practice&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mosaic-property-group">Mosaic</a> brought in as design partner for the first time on this project. The palette runs to natural stone, textured timbers, and soft metallics, materials chosen as much for their tactile quality as their appearance.</p>

<p>Light cleverly shifts across surfaces through the day, and the design is explicit about wanting that to be noticed. Full-height glazing runs across the primary living areas, and where the building faces east toward the ocean, those walls of glass are doing real work: framing a view corridor that the site's position directly opposite Broadbeach State School's playing fields keeps permanently open.</p>

<p>That outlook is the site's most consequential asset. In a suburb where new towers continue to rise, a protected view line is genuinely rare, and the Mary Avenue address secures it. Residents at Madeline will look out over open parkland rather than the rear of another building, a distinction that becomes more meaningful with each new development approved nearby.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=355939]</p>

<p>The private outdoor spaces are sized to match the residences themselves. Terraces on the upper levels frame uninterrupted ocean panoramas, and the planning ensures that living areas extend into those outdoor zones rather than treating them as separate attachments. The flow between the two is part of the design intent, not an afterthought.</p>

<p>Inside, the finish specification reflects the same approach. Rich stone benchtops, warm timber joinery, bespoke hardware, each element specified to hold up over time rather than read as a moment in a particular trend cycle.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=3409]</p>

<p>Beyond the residences, the amenity offering extends that register. A lap pool and sun deck anchor the outdoor space, alongside a magnesium pool, cold plunge, steam room, and sauna.</p>

<p>A commercial-grade gymnasium, residents' lounge, library, and boardroom round out a programme that functions more like a private members club than a standard building amenity floor.</p>

<p>Construction has commenced under Mosaic's in-house building arm, with completion scheduled for late 2028.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150135]</p>


Madeline by Mosaic delivers penthouse-level living across every apartment

<p>Developer Fortezza Group is the latest to take its new apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-belvedere-5-7-church-street-nelson-bay-nsw-2315">The Belvedere in Nelson Bay</a>, to the NSW Government.</p>

<p>Fortezza, predominantly a South East Queensland developer, is the latest to apply for State Significant Development&nbsp; status through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority, a pathway becoming favoured by developers to speed up the approval process.</p>

<p>They are planning 57 two- and three-bedroom apartments across 5-7 Church Street and 42 Donald Street, near d'Albora Nelson Bay Marina. The diverse apartment mix has sizes from just over 80 sqm to the largest three-bedroom penthouses that reach nearly 200 sqm.</p>

<p><img alt="Fortezza" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="090360e1-66d7-43ad-b686-aba81f173bf2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-29%20at%2010.22.40%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=DMqF96eBZolqSAAAcugX0l66ueWng66m" /></p>

<p>Fortezza calls the project a "piece of Istria in Nelson Bay,"&nbsp;referring to the largest peninsula in the Adriatic Sea, shared by Croatia (90%), Slovenia, and Italy, which is known for its Roman history, Venetian-style coastal towns and inland hilltop villages.</p>

<p>They say the The Belvedere is strategically positioned at the apex of Nelson Bay, offering unrivalled views of the ocean, the bay and captivating topography of the area.</p>

<p>"Our commitment to maintaining the integrity of every view and sight line has been relentless," Fortezza Group says.</p>

<p>"Through extensive modelling and analysis, we ensure that each apartment enjoys the natural beauty of Nelson Bay, regardless of future developments. Each design element is carefully curated to harmonise with our European heritage, drawing profound inspiration from the Roman architectural marvels in Istria. The arches, the cascades of greenery and the stonework that define our project pay homage to the structures that once exemplified Roman grandeur."</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a pool, communal green spaces, an office and a coffee shop.</p>


First look: Fortezza Group takes The Belvedere, Nelson Bay apartment development, to NSW Government

<p>Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.</p>

<p>They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.</p>

<p>They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.</p>

<p>Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor</p>

<p>Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" /></p>

<p>Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>​</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.</p>

<p>With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.</p>


Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
<div>There was a slight increase in the number of permanent settlers in Australia in the year to June, according to today's ABS figures. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Most come from Asia, at 58.4 per cent in the year to June.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Only 410 Brit settlers arrived in the month of June - crashing down from a record 2,560 in August 2007 to the lowest figure in the history of the data series. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Not so many Kiwis are making the permanent journey across the Tasman either right now.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/08/05/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/08/05/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>With departures up over the past year, net permanent and long term immigration fell quite sharply to +262,800, the lowest figure since March 2007.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/05/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/05/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>It's another type of casualisation. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Just as there are more part time jobs these days than there used to be, there are more part time migrants!<br><br>Despite the slowdown, as I explored here the headcount in Australia is probably up by more than 400,000 over the last year, including a surge in international students.</div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record visitors</span></strong></p>
<div> </div>
<div>The lower dollar has resulted in an epic boom in short term arrivals, to yet another all-time high of 7.84 million.<br><br>And this figure is accelerating, up by 10 per cent over the past year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said, the downward pressure impact of the lower dollar on short term departures (up to 9.67 million) may be beginning to fade. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/05/A3.jpg" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/05/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Most short term visitors come for holidays (3.91 million) or to visit friends and relatives (2.04 million).</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/05/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/08/05/A6.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div> </div>
<div>No surprises that June saw yet another monthly record in the number of visitors from China and Hong Kong,</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There has been a stunning 21 per cent increase in annual visitors from China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, to a record 1.54 million (a rip-snorting 13-fold increase from 1991). </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/05/A4.jpg" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/05/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><br><span>Meanwhile 469,800 education arrivals in the year to June was 14 per cent higher than one year ago.</span><br><br><a href="/images/2016/08/05/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><img src="/images/2016/08/05/A2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div>Recall that the visa rules for international students were relaxed effective 1 July, so these figures will likely accelerate in the second half of 2016.</div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></p>
<div>As you were, really.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Fewer long term and permanent migrants to Australia - particularly from the United Kingdom and New Zealand - but record short term arrivals and ever more Chinese visitors (with more to come when the changes to student visa rules kick in as the year progresses). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Record Chinese visitors again: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div id="post-body-7830260024232386691" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>Relax everyone. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I've been to China for a week, and I've got everything sussed.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Alright, I'm only joshing, there are of those pieces doing the rounds already, and I don't have too many original insights today.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The trip did give me some food for thought, however, about the future of Australia's largest capital cities.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In my home country of England, the capital city London has never really embraced high-rise living.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But as the Asian Century progresses it seems likely that some Australian cities will increasingly do so. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Here are a five things that we might expect to see more of...</div>
<div> </div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1 - Higher construction costs</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>Construction costs - and particularly land remediation costs - have become more expensive in Australia over time.<br><br>I looked here previously at some of the reasons why.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Construction techniques and equipment are relatively cheap in China. And it shows (oops-a-daisy!)...</div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">2 - Reclaimed land?</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Hong Kong, over the past two decades about 60 square kilometres of additional land has been created, particularly in prime waterfront sites on Victoria Harbour.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, legislation has been passed to protect the harbour from encroaching land into the precious and highly valued harbour space.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>We could see some similar trends playing out in Australia.<br><br>Indeed, land reclamation and remediation on the Hungry Mile was an integral part of Lend Lease's flagship Barangaroo project.<br><br>Overall, though, land reclamation on a large scale would likely be opposed in Australia, I feel. </div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">3 - Lagged delivery of infrastsructure</span></strong><br><br><div>One of the most noticeable things in China, particularly when you see the mainland, is that when something needs building...it gets built!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>China needs a bridge - a bridge gets built. China requires a highway or an airport - a highway or an airport gets constructed.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perhaps this is one of the benefits of living in a surplus country.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>By contrast the delivery of infrastructure in Australia always seems to lag, sometimes horribly so.<br><br>Left to its own devices, the market seems to focus on building residential dwellings, but not enough other infrastructure.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And when stuff does eventually get built, people still carp and complain.<br><br>Look at the extremely successful Gold Coast Light Rail project, for example, which notched up a rip-snorting 14 million trips in the year to 30 June ahead of the forthcoming Olympic Games. And people are still whingeing about it!<br><br>Australia's 10 year bond yield recently hit its lowest level in history, so it's potentially a great time to borrow and build.<br><br>But we'll have to wait and see what Prime Minister Turnbull thinks about that, and whether the electorate has the appetite for debt.</div>
<div> </div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">4 - Extreme inner city land prices</span></strong><br><br><div>With a highly concentrated population, prime location development sites in Hong Kong can now be worth up to an extraordinary HK$5 million per square metre.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Inner Sydney has seen some breathtaking prices paid by Chinese investors and developers in recent years for development sites, but nothing remotely on this scale.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney's population is only 5 million today, but that number if projected to double over the course of this century. So, one day...</div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">5 - Higher density living</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>We tend to think of Australia's capital cities as being 'dense', essentially because they aren't towns, and because employment tends to be centralised and the traffic is therefore often so bad.<br><br>But with the exception of  handful of suburbs, in global terms Australia's urban populations are in fact anything but dense, as soon as you move away from their central cores. </div>
<br><div><a href="/images/2016/08/15/sp-so-230413-graph7.gif" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/08/15/sp-so-230413-graph7.gif" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Even in the largest capital cities in Australia there are plenty of sites which can still be developed for residential dwellings. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And if land supply is short, we can also build up as well as out.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>China has a number of large cities that provide example of how much denser city living can become over time. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>BTW the term MOAR, as written in the headline, is internet slang and a combination of the words more and roar.</div>
<br><p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>
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Building MOAR high rise: Pete Wargent

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<p>That’s the big question that many are thinking with his current running commentaries on the Australian economy – but will he tee – off on exactly what are the major problems facing our economy?</p>
<p>I hope he does with his ten-year term expiring on 17 September having taken over as the Head Teller back on September 18, 2006. Interesting to note that over that time he has left the cash rate alone on sixty-seven (67) occasions, cut the cash rate on twelve (12) occasions and increased the cash rate on six (6) occasions.</p>
<p>Surprising how time flies when you’re having fun as the last cash rate increase was back on November 3, 2011 so in essence he has spent his last term as Head Teller cutting the cash rate.</p>
<p>One really could not blame him for cutting the cash rate this month to a record low of 1.50 percent – “whilst prospects for growth were positive, there was room for stronger growth, which could be assisted by lower interest rates.”</p>
<p>It is irresponsible to use last week’s record Sydney clearance rates as a consequence for the latest rate cut as this was always going to happen and I will get to that a little later. A big problem is the Wage Price Index where seasonally adjusted, private sector wages grew 0.5 percent and public sector wages grew 0.6 per cent in the June quarter 2016.</p>
<p>On an annual basis that equates to private sector wages growing 2.0 percent and public sector wages growing 2.4 percent annually. Trying to create and then increase consumption has been the biggest challenge for central banks globally. On the other hand, controlling property prices can be achieved although this task is beyond the control of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) which may explain why Glenn Stevens appears an angry man.</p>
<p>As I wrote earlier,<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/blame-governments-high-property-prices/"> </a>blaming the governments for high property prices maybe somebody might like to explain why the latest Australia Bureau of Statistics survey reveals that last year 93,000 Australians moved overseas in the last twelve months, which is four times the average. Fifty per cent were in the 25 to 35-year-old category which is a telling statistic.</p>
<p>According to the latest Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey that was recently released by the Melbourne Institute, home ownership rates among those aged 25 to 34 years fell from 39 per cent in 2002 to 29 per cent in 2014. Home values are increasing and banking regulations are demanding twenty (20) per cent deposits which highlights the dilemma facing young Australians. The writings have been on the wall now for decades and sad to say our elected politicians have done nothing to address these problems.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/22/Housing-Affordability-1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/08/22/Housing-Affordability-1.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The March quarter for 2016, the Sydney median house price dropped 1.5 per cent to $995,804, while the Sydney apartment median price fell 0.7 per cent to $656,166. I would expect that both reversed that trend in the June quarter by heading back to positive territory. Over the past five years house prices have jumped almost fifty (50) per cent.</p>
<p>In search of answers I found this remarkable report by Professor Frank Stilwell, School of Economics and Political Science, University of Sydney<a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/first-home-ownership/submissions/sub212/sub212.pdf">.</a> This report looks at Sydney and NSW country property prices from 1986 to 2003 where property prices then rose nearly fivefold in Sydney and threefold for the rest of NSW.</p>
<p>Please make a point of reading the Executive Summary as this is a mirror image of what then happened over the next decade from 2006 to 2016.</p>
<p>“Average wages have not increased in line with inflation in land and housing. Consequently, housing affordability has declined sharply: a typical house in Sydney cost just under 4 years of average earnings in 1986, while in 2003 it cost over 12 years’ worth of earnings.”</p>
<p>“It is only by addressing these issues of tax reform that the pressures causing a crisis of affordability for many aspiring first home buyers can be resolved.” Yes, politicians and tax reform – as we saw at the last federal election they are petrified of those two words – tax reform.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/22/NSW-Listings.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/08/22/NSW-Listings.png" alt=""></p>
<p>I’ve lost count how many times I have written about why Sydney property markets are recording declines in stock numbers which drives prices higher. Back to the Executive Summary for an explanation.</p>
<p>.<br>“Stamp duty has become a fundamentally important source of State revenue and could not be reduced unless an alternative revenue source was found. That alternative could be land tax. Although less in the political spotlight, land taxation and interaction with the housing market could hold an important key to resolving the housing affordability crisis.”</p>
<p>This submission was prepared thirteen years ago and nothing has been done although Sydney house prices since that submission would have increased on average another three, four and five times depending on the area.</p>
<p>Little wonder first home buyers are leaving and no longer refer to Australia as being the “lucky country.” More importantly when are our politicians going to listen and act – or possibly understanding what needs to be done is too hard for them to fathom.</p>
<p>If parliamentary pensions could be docked for inactivity they would all be listening and acting. When Glenn Stevens delivers his final speech he must shoot from the hip and take no prisoners.</p>
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 53</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market last week – 51</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this week – 52</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 41</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market last week – 44</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this week – 45</p>
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 2</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market last week – 10</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this week – 10</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 15</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market last week – 16</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this week – 14</p>
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 4</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market last week – 8</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this week – 10</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 25</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market last week – 20</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this week – 21</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>ROBERT SIMEON is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. </em></p>
<p><em>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000.</em></p>
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Will the RBA governor go out with a bang? Robert Simeon

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<div>Total construction work done declined by a further 1.9 percent in the June 2016 quarter to $47.8 billion, to be 7.9 percent lower over the year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The result was driven by another 5.1 percent decline in engineering construction in the quarter - largely mining related - to leave this component down by 24.9 percent year-on-year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/08/25/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/08/25/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The building boom, on the other hand, continues apace. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although there has been a solid increase in alterations and additions (major renovations) lately, record building activity through this cycle has been overwhelmingly been driven by "other residential" building, specifically units, apartments, and townhouses.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/08/25/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/08/25/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Mining cliff now 4 years old</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Next month it will be fully four years since the so-termed "mining cliff" began. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Interestingly engineering construction work done increased in the June 2016 quarter in Queensland, where most of the retracement has already taken place, while activity has actually trended up strongly in New South Wales and Victoria over the past year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I've long been warning that Western Australia would have to take its medicine sooner or later, and the reality check kicked in this quarter, with engineering construction crashing down to be some 48 per cent lower than one year ago. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>These figures confirm what has no doubt been obvious on the ground for some time - that the local economy is doing it tough as it passes through this painful slowdown period.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/08/25/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/25/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Engineering construction work done has also fallen substantially in the Northern Territory over the last six quarters, including by a further 28 per cent over the past year, with only the massive Ichthys LNG project is holding this result aloft.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator">The good news is that the decline in engineering construction is now thought to be around 80 percent complete, meaning that sooner or later this will stop being such a drag on the economy. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">In fact, in New South Wales, Victoria, and now Queensland, it already has. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record building boom continues</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The building boom and its associated multiplier effect has largely benefited the largest capital cities.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/25/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/08/25/A4.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div>New house building, while still increasing steadily in Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia, appears to have peaked for this cycle nationally.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/25/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/25/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>On the other hand the value of construction work done on attached dwellings was still tracking at record levels in the June quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/08/25/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/25/A6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br>Residential building activity was still running at full pelt through the second quarter of the year, pushing up building costs in cities such as Sydney.<br><br>The Housing Industry Association (HIA) announced today that it believes that new home building will now decline for the next three years, with annual commencements falling from a peak of over 232,500 dwellings to 166,500 in 2018/19, with some downside risks to the forecast.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The good news is that engineering construction will have already stopped falling significantly over the next 18 months.<br><br>Ichthys aside, most of the project-driven declines have now washed through the figures outside Western Australia.<br><br>Analysts expect to see moderate GDP growth in the second quarter of calendar year 2016 with net exports not making much of a contribution this time around.<br><br>On balance, though, the planned hand-off has been pulled off very well, with Australia now getting close to the bottom of its mining cliff.<br><br>Although resources regions have felt the pain, the largest capital cities have by and large pulled through relatively unscathed. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Record building boom continues: Pete Wargent

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<p>As the Melbourne market gradually winds down, locations in regional Victoria are rising. Regional cities and towns within striking distance of the state capital in particular are travelling well.</p>
<p>There are conflicting views about whether Melbourne has passed its peak or whether it’s still booming.</p>
<p>My research indicates the city’s market has undoubtedly passed the peak in its cycle, with a significant reduction in sales activity since the start of the year. The markets that showed exceptional price growth in the past 12-18 months, particularly middle market suburbs, are no longer growing.</p>
<p>There are still some good sales happening, caused partly by a shortage of listings, which is helping to keep prices strong in selected locations. But the market that existed in 2014 and 2015, with sales activity rising strongly and prices achieving double-digit annual rises in many areas, is no longer happening.</p>
<p>But regional markets close to Melbourne are rising. I have written in the recent past about the City of Greater Geelong, which is now the strongest market in the state.</p>
<p>Bendigo and Ballarat, both strong regional economies close to the state capital, are solid markets with steady price growth.</p>
<p>In between those cities and Melbourne, there are two municipalities which have caught the wave from Melbourne and grabbed the attention of people seeking an affordable lifestyle just outside the city.</p>
<p>These are Macedon Ranges Shire and Mitchell Shire. In a July column I touched briefly on these places in discussing state government population projections.</p>
<p>Macedon Ranges is expected to grow its population 25 percent over the next 15 years. But the municipality likely to see the most dramatic increase in population is Mitchell Shire, which is forecast to more than double its population from 40,000 in 2016 to 81,500 in 2031.</p>
<p>This will make Mitchell Shire - a little north of Melbourne, including towns such as Kilmore, Seymour, Broadford and Wallan - the fastest-growing area in the state.</p>
<p>In the next 20 years Wallan (which is about 60km from the Melbourne CBD) is projected to grow from 11,000 to 31,000, while the village of Beveridge is forecast to explode from the current 1,700 to 21,000.</p>
<p>The towns of Macedon Ranges have already experienced substantial price growth. Towns with big increases in median prices in the past 12 months include Gisborne (up 11 percent), Riddells Creek (up 14 percent), Macedon (up 30 percent) and Mt Macedon (up 18 percent). The median house price for Macedon has risen from $530,000 to $685,000 in 12 months.</p>
<p>Now we’re seeing the towns of Mitchell Shire starting to move. The attractions are affordability relative to Melbourne; a relaxed country lifestyle; and proximity to Melbourne with good road and rail links. It’s feasible to live there while commuting to jobs in Melbourne (keeping in mind that most Melbourne jobs are NOT in the CBD – many of them are in the northern suburbs).</p>
<p>Median house prices include $350,000 in Kilmore, $240,000 in Seymour, $285,000 in Broadford and $380,000 in Wallan.</p>
<p>To date price growth has been moderate – around 5-6% in the past 12 months – but more is expected in the near future.</p>
<p class="Body"><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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Forget Melbourne, the regions are Victoria's rising property hotspots 

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<p><span style="font-size: 12.16px; line-height: 1.3em;">GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 12.16px; line-height: 1.3em;">We all know that housing market conditions are very different from region to region, with values continuing to show strong growth conditions in Sydney and </span><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">Melbourne, while dwelling values are trending lower in Perth and Darwin. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">One of the fundamental drivers of housing market performance comes back to the balance between housing supply and demand.</span></p>
<p>All too often, we reference supply levels to the amount of new housing stock that has either been approved for construction, or recently completed. From this perspective, we are absolutely seeing a surge of apartments into inner city markets across the largest capital cities. However, another facet of housing supply relates to how many homes are currently being advertised for sale.</p>
<p><strong>Listing counts</strong></p>
<p>Listing counts, which typically reflect how many established homes are currently available for sale (as opposed to developer stock, or off-the-plan listings, which generally aren’t advertised for sale individually on the major real estate portals such as realestate.com.au) are also an important measure of housing supply.</p>
<p>The number of properties being advertised for sale provides a vital clue about the direction of housing prices. Those cities where advertised stock levels remain short are continuing to see upwards price pressures, while cities with historically high stock levels are seeing downwards pressure.</p>
<p>Take Sydney as a case in point. CoreLogic is currently tracking just over 18,800 listings across the metro region of Sydney. While this headline figure is approximately 4% higher than a year ago, overall stock levels remain historically low. As a comparison point, when the Sydney market was moving through a down phase between late 2010 and mid-2012, CoreLogic was tracking just over 40,000 properties on the market.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/30/marketTim_normal.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/08/30/marketTim_normal.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The fact that Sydney listing numbers remains so low is one of the factors providing the upwards pressure on housing prices. Buyers simply don’t have a lot of stock to choose from, which creates urgency in the market and provides leverage to vendors when setting and negotiating their prices.</p>
<p>At the other end of the spectrum is a city like Darwin, where listing numbers have recently moved through historically high levels. CoreLogic is currently tracking just over 1,600 homes for sale across Darwin. Considering the past 12 months saw approximately 2,160 dwellings sold across Darwin, we can estimate there is roughly 9 months of ‘effective’ housing supply across the Darwin market.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/30/marketTim2_normal.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/08/30/marketTim2_normal.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Watching the trend in listing numbers is an important aspect to understanding local housing market performance. Most cities are still recording a relatively low number of property advertisements compared with historic levels, however with Spring approaching, we are likely to see an upwards trend of newly advertised properties enter the market.</p>
<p>With transaction numbers already trending lower, this upswing in stock levels will provide a timely test of the market’s strength.</p>
<p><em>Tim Lawless is head of the CoreLogic research and analytics team and can be contacted <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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The balance between housing supply and demand: Tim Lawless

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<p>SQM Research reported that listing numbers declined across every capital city in August, and August listings nationally down by 4.3 percent from the prior year.  </p>
<div>This is not unusual for August according to SQM, so we may see a rebound in September. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/09/08/SQM1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/08/SQM1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the past year Hobart has been the one significantly tightening market with listings down by 7 per cent in August to be 10.7 per cent lower than one year ago. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/09/08/SQM2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/08/SQM2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><br><span>Darwin listings seem to have stabilised, while this was a better result for Perth, though median asking prices are lower than one year ago in both of these resources capital cities. </span> </p>
<div>In Sydney total listings are 12.3 percent higher than one year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>According to SQM's managing director, Sydney's inner ring has seen record year-on-year declines in listings, but outer suburban and older stock is not shifting leading to the annual increase in total listings. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There has been much talk of an apartment corrections in the largest capital, but to date median asking prices are higher over the year in both Sydney (+5.2 percent) and Melbourne (+5.2 percent). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Listings decline across the board: Pete Wargent

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<p>The need to “dig deep” isn’t just something footy players seek to do in the final quarter of a game – it’s an important mindset for property investors.</p>
<p>Among the many problems on the property playing field is the constant reporting of generalised data. A single figure can describe the entire market in a city of millions.</p>
<p>Unless consumers are willing to delve a little deeper, they will miss the myriad different stories lurking beneath the veneer of that single growth figure.</p>
<p>Some of those stories are strong growth scenarios that investors might want to know about. Equally there are danger signals alerting the switched-on practitioner to traps they should avoid.</p>
<p>There are dozens of examples in the latest quarterly edition of Market Monitor published by the Real Estate Institute of Queensland, with a particular focus on Brisbane and the Gold Coast, two places that are attracting plenty of attention from investors nationwide.</p>
<p>The annual growth in the median house price for the Brisbane City LGA is a moderate 5 percent. I’ve heard talking head TV personalities quote numbers like that and tell people that not much is happening in that market and investors should look elsewhere.</p>
<p>The dig-deeper philosophy would alert the more alert to places that are doing significantly better than the average. Brisbane City is a very big municipality, way bigger than equivalent LGAs in Sydney and Melbourne, and covers a large chunk of metropolitan Brisbane. </p>
<p>There are around 130 suburbs in the Brisbane City LGA and that 5 percent annual growth figure does a thoroughly inadequate job of describing the state of play in its various markets.</p>
<p>Within that sprawling municipality Banyo, Carina Heights, Robertson, Wilston, Yeerongpilly and Seven Hills all have something in common – they’ve recorded growth above 15 percent in their median house prices in 12 months (although the 23-25 percent growth for Robertson and Yeerongpilly may be misleading because of small sales samples). </p>
<p>Others with double-digit annual growth include Bulimba, Calamvale, Carindale, Clayfield, Coorparoo, Everton Park, Graceville, Greenslopes, Grange, Hemmant, Highgate Hill, Holland Park West, Inala, Jindalee, Lutwyche, Macgregor, Mackenzie, Manly, Mansfield, New Farm, Norman Park, Sunnybank Hills, Wishart and Wooloowin. </p>
<p>They cover widespread price ranges, from Inala (median $350,000) to New Farm ($1.5 million).</p>
<p>There are numerous positive growth stories there that investors might want to know about - but are unlikely to discover if their idea of research is skimming the daily newspaper. </p>
<p>There are some well-hidden negative news items as well. Some of the leadership in the REIQ are in denial about Brisbane’s inner-city apartment over-supply. If you read the executive summary, this is what you would find: “The unit market in the Brisbane CBD has continued to face the question of oversupply and so far the data does not support that verdict.”</p>
<p>But the small print data in the report portrays a quite different picture.</p>
<p>The vacancy rate for inner-city apartments is close to 4 percent (and figures from other sources suggest it is considerably higher). It will rise when new high-rise projects are completed.</p>
<p>While Brisbane City’s median house price is up 5 percent in annual terms, there is no change is the median unit price. And several individual inner-city markets have recorded a decline in the past year, including the CBD (down 1.5 percent), East Brisbane (down 4.1 percent), Bowen Hills (down 7.8 percent), New Farm (down 3.8 percent), West End (down 1.6 percent) and Fortitude Valley (down 5.9 percent).</p>
<p>Median prices can be unreliable and misleading, especially for unit markets, but there’s a fairly distinct pattern there.</p>
<p>An analysis of the Brisbane unit market by Urbis indicates that sales levels have fallen for three consecutive quarters and sale prices have been “steadily decreasing” since the end of last year.</p>
<p>Few of these inner-city apartment markets have recorded any rental growth in the past 12 months and several have delivered falling rents. In the Brisbane CBD the median unit rent has dropped from $600 per week to $570, while New Farm/Teneriffe is down from $510 to $500 and Kangaroo Point has dropped from $495 to $475.</p>
<p>The median rents for the Fortitude Valley and South Brisbane precincts are unchanged.</p>
<p>There are similarly divergent stories to be discovered within the many different markets collectively known as the Gold Coast.</p>
<p>Market Monitor says the median house price is up 6.7 percent in 12 months, but there are plenty of suburbs with growth above 10%. A small number – including Broadbeach Waters, Hope Island and Reedy Creek – are credited with growth in the 16-20 percent range, while the most expensive housing market on the Gold Coast, Mermaid Beach, has allegedly increased 30 percent in 12 months.</p>
<p>The single generalised figure for the Gold Coast apartment market portrays a 3.3 percent rise in the median price, but numerous individual markets have done much better. Hope Island median unit price is apparently up 20 percent in 12 months.</p>
<p>But the big beachside high-rise precincts continue to struggle. Surfers Paradise has recorded a small annual rise in its median price, but it remains 4% lower than five years ago. The Mermaid Beach median unit price is down 1.4 percent in 12 months and 4.1 percent lower than five years ago. Broadbeach is up marginally in 12 months but 13 percent lower than in 2011.</p>
<p>Against that trend, both Main Beach and Southport have recorded meaningful annual rises in their median unit prices and are a little ahead of the price levels of five years ago.</p>
<p>The contrasting situations seen in different sub-markets entail an important lesson for property investors. Ignore the shallow one-figure-for-each-city nonsense published by mainstream media and dig deeper to find the information you need to know to buy wisely and safely.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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Queensland's big beachside high-rise precincts continue to struggle

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<div>Australia's GDP increased to $1.67 trillion in financial year 2016, measured in seasonally adjusted Chain Volume Measures terms, now tracking at just above $420 billion per quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Following on from yesterday's post, a quick look here at industry gross value added (GVA).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Having accounted for just over 5 per cent of industry GVA three decades ago, mining's share has swelled to 8.9 percent as export volumes begin to ramp up.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Finance and insurance also now accounts for 8.9 per cent of industry GVA, up from just 4.9 per cent in 1986.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>You can click on the chart to expand it (or use the touch screen, if you have one of those, of course).</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/09/28/GVA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/28/GVA.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div class="separator"> </div>
<div>On the other hand, manufacturing is shrinking as a share of the pie, declining from a share of 11.1 percent at the beginning of this chart to just 5.8 percent in 2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Construction wind-down</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest figures show that the contribution of construction to GDP has remained solid at 7.6 per cent, tracking at around $32 billion per quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>A decade ago construction was contributing only $13 to $14 billion per quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This suggests that the planned 'hand-off' from resources to residential construction was generally a success between 2012 and 2016. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, this does also mean that as residential construction eventually winds down there will be quite a hole in domestic demand to be plugged by something other than rising mining export volumes.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given the respective skill-sets of all those construction workers, tradies, and project managers, the answer should be: infrastructure and non-residential construction, as I looked at in a bit more detail here. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, the unprecedented stamp duty windfall from Sydney's property boom is already funding a range of infrastructure projects in Sydney and New South Wales. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But what about the gaping gulf left behind in the resources regions? </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Troubling, and this may be leading to an exodus of regional workers. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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When construction winds down: Pete Wargent

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<p>Chinese capital has a huge role to play in Australia's housing market over the next few years, for better or for worse. </p>
<p>But there are some looming obstacles. </p>
<p>New South Wales recently introduced a 4 percent stamp duty surcharge for non-resident buyers, with a 0.75 percent land tax. </p>
<p>Harsh, yes, but not as onerous for apartment buyers as the 7 percent stamp duty surcharge that became effective from 1 July in Victoria, while Queensland has also introduced a 3 percent surcharge. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, banks and brokers fearing investigation have become extremely reluctant to lend to non-resident buyers declaring only foreign income. </p>
<p>With a record volume of apartments due for completion over the next two years, and many of these having been bought off the plan by overseas buyers, one way or another one feels that something has to give. </p>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Fork...</span></strong></p>
<p>At this juncture it feels like it could go either way.</p>
<p>We know that Australia (and particularly Melbourne and Sydney) is a favourite destination for Chinese capital. </p>
<p>Across the drink, Vancouver recently introduced a monster 15 percent tax on non-residents which has turned Chinese investors away and is pushing that housing market south. </p>
<p>This could in turn lead more Chinese buyers to look at Australia as the destination for their fleeing capital.</p>
<p>Although prices have gotten more expensive in Australia for local buyers, thanks to foreign exchange movements this is not so for the Chinese. </p>
<p>Unit prices may have increased by 41 percent over the last four years in Sydney, for example, but when translated into CNY prices have not moved up at all in real terms. </p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/09/28/CNY.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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