<p>South East Queensland developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a>’s entry into the Gold Coast apartment market has progressed from pipeline to market, with its Chevron Island project Bronze on Chevron now formally available to purchase ahead of a planned 2029 completion.</p>

<p>The 119-apartment development on Mawarra Street marks the Brisbane-headquartered builder-developer’s first residential play in the Gold Coast, following its expansion south from Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> comprises a mix of two-, three- and four-bedroom residences, with pricing starting from just over $1.5 million. The project is being delivered under Gardner Vaughan’s fully integrated model, with the group acting as both developer and builder, a structure it has consistently applied across its South East Queensland portfolio.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367182]</p>

<p>Architecture has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jeremy-ferrier-landscape-design">Jeremy Ferrier</a>. The building presents as a single-tower scheme, with a focus on maximising outlook across both the Surfers Paradise skyline and the Nerang River.</p>

<p>Apartments have been planned with open-plan living zones extending to generous balconies, a response to the site’s dual-aspect positioning between river and ocean. Interiors follow a restrained coastal palette, with two colour schemes offered, and an emphasis on natural light and cross-ventilation.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367181]</p>

<p>Resident amenity is concentrated across more than 1,250 sqm and includes a resort-style pool, gym, yoga lawn and rooftop entertaining areas. A function space with catering facilities forms part of the upper-level offering, alongside north- and south-facing outdoor areas.</p>

<p>Ground level will incorporate two retail tenancies, intended to extend the existing village character of the surrounding streets.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367200]</p>

<p>The project sits within walking distance of Thomas Drive’s established dining strip, while maintaining proximity to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Surfers Paradise</a> beach and broader Gold Coast amenity. The location, positioned on Chevron Island between the river and coastline, has increasingly attracted mid- to high-density development in recent years as the precinct evolves beyond its low-rise origins.</p>

<p>Gardner Vaughan’s move into the Gold Coast was first signalled in 2025, with the group identifying the region as a natural extension of its operations. Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge described the expansion as both “strategic and natural”, citing demand for well-designed apartments in lifestyle-driven markets.</p>

<p>Construction is expected to complete in early 2029.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]</p>


Joel Robinson

Gardner Vaughan brings Bronze on Chevron to market as Gold Coast debut

<p data-end="198" data-start="61">One of the penthouses at Lily Lane, the latest stage of Carrington Place by Ellipse Property, has set a new local apartment price record.</p>

<p data-end="350" data-start="200">The four-bedroom residence, purchased by a local downsizer, sold for $5.75 million—around 75 per cent higher than the previous record of $3.3 million.</p>

<p data-end="461" data-start="352">Over 40 per cent of the first release of apartments at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lily-lane-at-carrington-place-castle-hill-32-carrington-road-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Lily Lane</a> have already been snapped up just six weeks since it launched to the market.</p>

<p data-end="461" data-start="352">&nbsp;</p>

<p>Located at 32 Carrington Road, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/castle-hill-nsw-2154">Castle Hill</a> and designed by award-winning architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ptw">PTW</a>, Lily Lane is directly opposite the Hills Showground Metro station. It offers a total 213 units over two 12-storey towers - a mix of 67 one-bedroom, 100 two-bedroom and 46 three-bedroom apartments - with a ground-floor retail offering.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=368352]</p>

<p>Blake Schulze, National Director – Residential at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/colliers">Colliers</a>, says around 44 per cent of buyers are&nbsp;owner occupiers, with 35 per cent being investors and 21 per cent first homebuyers.</p>

<p>“Developments of this calibre are very rare in the Hills District, and Lily Lane’s sales success demonstrates the depth of demand for over-sized apartments that genuinely compete with freestanding homes," Schulze says.</p>

<p>"We are seeing particular demand from downsizers who want to remain in the area but transition into spacious, high-quality apartment living."</p>

<p>On the penthouse sale, it says it shows buyers&nbsp;are prepared to pay a premium for scale, quality, and direct access to the Metro.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=368351]</p>

<p>One-bedroom apartments are sized from 50-72 sqm with prices starting at $745,000, while two-bedrooms are priced from $990,000 with sizes from 75 to 132 square metres. Three-bedroom floorplans are sized between 97 and 182 sqm,, with prices starting at $1,395,000.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The three remaining penthouses, spanning up to 262 sqm, are priced from $2.9 million.</p>

<p>Over 75 per cent of apartments include dedicated studies, multipurpose rooms or family rooms, with select layouts offering walk-in pantries and laundries. Apartments are appointed with premium Miele appliances including ovens, washing machines, dryers, gas cooktops and dishwashers, while larger residences also incorporate integrated Miele microwaves, Fisher &amp; Paykel integrated refrigerators and five-burner Miele cooktops.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=360285]</p>

<p>Lily Lane will be constructed by award-winning iCIRT-rated builder <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/decode">Decode Group</a>, with construction to commence in mid-2026 and expected to complete early 2029.</p>

<p>Carrington Place comprises more than 800 apartments and is being delivered across multiple stages, with completion expected in 2032. Integrated with neighbouring bushland, the project will feature over 20,000 sq, of outdoor recreational area, including a one-kilometre boardwalk to Fred Caterson Reserve.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The Hills Showground Metro Station is just a two-minute walk away, offering fast connectivity to Sydney’s CBD, North Sydney, Chatswood, Macquarie Park and Norwest Business Park.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151821]</p>


Ellipse sets Castle Hill apartment record with $5.75 million Lily Lane penthouse sale

<p data-end="223" data-start="65">Fresh off completing its Delano Crows Nest development, Lindsay Bennelong has lodged plans for its next project, this time turning its attention to the beach.</p>

<p data-end="431" data-start="225">The developer, founded by Clarendon Homes founder Peter Campbell, is proposing a 37-apartment scheme at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-25-ashburner-street-manly-nsw-2095">17-25 Ashburner Street</a>, Manly, positioned between the southern end of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/manly-nsw-2095">Manly</a> Beach and East Manly Cove.</p>

<p data-end="431" data-start="225">Lindsay Bennelong called on local architecture firm Platform Architects to design the new building, given their success on The Finn, Lindsay Bennelong's current luxury apartment project on North Steyne.<span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="font-family:Aptos, sans-serif"><span style="color:#222222"><span style="font-style:normal"><span style="font-variant-ligatures:normal"><span style="font-weight:400"><span style="white-space:normal"><span style="background-color:#ffffff"><span style="text-decoration-thickness:initial"><span style="text-decoration-style:initial"><span style="text-decoration-color:initial"><i>&nbsp;</i></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p data-end="372" data-start="143">According to the Design Verification Statement by Bridie Gough of Platform Architects, the proposal “relates to the current context but also the desired future character of taller buildings suitable to the new planning controls.”</p>

<p data-end="722" data-start="374">The site has been identified as a Low to Mid-Rise Housing (LMR) location, given its position within 400 metres of the Manly Town Centre E1 Business Zone. The LMR controls are intended to unlock additional housing supply in well-located areas close to public transport, allowing developers to seek increased height limits to support greater density.</p>

<p data-end="884" data-start="724">“The proposal seeks to provide this increased level of housing whilst being respectful of some of the smaller scale buildings also nearby,” the statement reads.</p>

<p data-end="1207" data-start="886">Lindsay Bennelong Development Director Leigh Manser said the project has been carefully aligned with the intent of the LMR controls. The proposal will significantly increase housing yield on the site, replacing four houses and 10 apartments, comprising 25 bedrooms, with 37 new apartments delivering a total of 94 bedrooms.</p>

<p data-end="1487" data-start="1209">“Sydney is in a severe undersupply, and delivering more dwellings and more bedrooms than what currently exists is exactly what the LMR policy is designed to activate,” Manser said, noting that nine of the apartments will be allocated as affordable housing for frontline workers.</p>

<p data-end="1843" data-start="1489">“We have already commenced discussions with our community housing provider to determine the rental levels that frontline workers can realistically afford in this location,” he said. “These will need to sit well below the standard affordable housing benchmark of 20 per cent below market rent, and that has been factored into our feasibility and pricing.”</p>

<p><img alt="Manly" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ad03000f-19f9-48b4-b27d-e85ca800a1da" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%208.41.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=a.txHwCZgbCInlQ6QXbIrI.umvW1T.r8" /></p>

<p data-end="1825" data-start="1664">The design of the building incorporates a wave-like indentation running through the façade, referencing the nearby coastline and anchoring the building within its local context.</p>

<p data-end="1825" data-start="1664">The&nbsp;Design Verification Statement says careful consideration has been given to the articulation of the building, ensuring the bulk is broken down to a more human scale through a defined four-storey podium."</p>

<p data-end="1825" data-start="1664">The scheme includes a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments.</p>

<p data-end="2146" data-start="1962">“The design ensures a high level of amenity, with apartments offering generous private open space, many with expansive views, and all with comfortable proportions."</p>

<p data-end="2146" data-start="1962"><img alt="Bennelong" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6a7f2812-72a1-4959-84b0-997e8cd88aed" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%2010.15.50%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=6iMxU3MkXmHVHAoNhYBjnqgka8CUZNbk" /></p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lindsay-bennelong-developments">Lindsay Bennelong</a>&nbsp;is currently developing Finn Manly, just three full-floor luxury apartments on North Steyne. They recently welcomed residents to its 81-unit Delano Crows Nest development, a&nbsp;carefully scaled infill project designed to bridge&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/crows-nest-nsw-2065">Crows Nest</a>’s lively village centre with its surrounding heritage streets.</p>

<p>Designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ajc-architects">AJC Architects</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/delano-crows-nest-27-57-falcon-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Delano</a>&nbsp;is arranged across three low-rise buildings, incorporating a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom apartments alongside a limited number of townhomes addressing Hayberry Lane. The architectural approach draws on the area’s Art Deco lineage, reinterpreted through contemporary detailing and framed by landscaped communal gardens.</p>

<p>The developer also has a development site in Maroubra.</p>


First look: Lindsay Bennelong's new Manly apartment development revealed

<p>Fifty-nine residences across 37 levels. No more than two per floor. With 80 per cent now sold, what remains at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/madeline-by-mosaic-broadbeach-22-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">Madeline by Mosaic</a> is a short list.</p>

<p>Madeline was always conceived at a scale that sits outside the normal register of Gold Coast apartment living. The residences are half- and full-floor configurations, with the largest spanning more than 400 sqm, dimensions that place them closer to the penthouse end of the market regardless of where they sit in the building.</p>

<p>That scale is the organising principle of everything else: how the floorplans are laid out, how the materials read, how the connection between inside and outside works.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=355941]</p>

<p>The interiors were developed in collaboration with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser &amp; Partners</a>, the architecture practice&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mosaic-property-group">Mosaic</a> brought in as design partner for the first time on this project. The palette runs to natural stone, textured timbers, and soft metallics, materials chosen as much for their tactile quality as their appearance.</p>

<p>Light cleverly shifts across surfaces through the day, and the design is explicit about wanting that to be noticed. Full-height glazing runs across the primary living areas, and where the building faces east toward the ocean, those walls of glass are doing real work: framing a view corridor that the site's position directly opposite Broadbeach State School's playing fields keeps permanently open.</p>

<p>That outlook is the site's most consequential asset. In a suburb where new towers continue to rise, a protected view line is genuinely rare, and the Mary Avenue address secures it. Residents at Madeline will look out over open parkland rather than the rear of another building, a distinction that becomes more meaningful with each new development approved nearby.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=355939]</p>

<p>The private outdoor spaces are sized to match the residences themselves. Terraces on the upper levels frame uninterrupted ocean panoramas, and the planning ensures that living areas extend into those outdoor zones rather than treating them as separate attachments. The flow between the two is part of the design intent, not an afterthought.</p>

<p>Inside, the finish specification reflects the same approach. Rich stone benchtops, warm timber joinery, bespoke hardware, each element specified to hold up over time rather than read as a moment in a particular trend cycle.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=3409]</p>

<p>Beyond the residences, the amenity offering extends that register. A lap pool and sun deck anchor the outdoor space, alongside a magnesium pool, cold plunge, steam room, and sauna.</p>

<p>A commercial-grade gymnasium, residents' lounge, library, and boardroom round out a programme that functions more like a private members club than a standard building amenity floor.</p>

<p>Construction has commenced under Mosaic's in-house building arm, with completion scheduled for late 2028.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150135]</p>


Madeline by Mosaic delivers penthouse-level living across every apartment

<p>Developer Fortezza Group is the latest to take its new apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-belvedere-5-7-church-street-nelson-bay-nsw-2315">The Belvedere in Nelson Bay</a>, to the NSW Government.</p>

<p>Fortezza, predominantly a South East Queensland developer, is the latest to apply for State Significant Development&nbsp; status through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority, a pathway becoming favoured by developers to speed up the approval process.</p>

<p>They are planning 57 two- and three-bedroom apartments across 5-7 Church Street and 42 Donald Street, near d'Albora Nelson Bay Marina. The diverse apartment mix has sizes from just over 80 sqm to the largest three-bedroom penthouses that reach nearly 200 sqm.</p>

<p><img alt="Fortezza" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="090360e1-66d7-43ad-b686-aba81f173bf2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-29%20at%2010.22.40%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=DMqF96eBZolqSAAAcugX0l66ueWng66m" /></p>

<p>Fortezza calls the project a "piece of Istria in Nelson Bay,"&nbsp;referring to the largest peninsula in the Adriatic Sea, shared by Croatia (90%), Slovenia, and Italy, which is known for its Roman history, Venetian-style coastal towns and inland hilltop villages.</p>

<p>They say the The Belvedere is strategically positioned at the apex of Nelson Bay, offering unrivalled views of the ocean, the bay and captivating topography of the area.</p>

<p>"Our commitment to maintaining the integrity of every view and sight line has been relentless," Fortezza Group says.</p>

<p>"Through extensive modelling and analysis, we ensure that each apartment enjoys the natural beauty of Nelson Bay, regardless of future developments. Each design element is carefully curated to harmonise with our European heritage, drawing profound inspiration from the Roman architectural marvels in Istria. The arches, the cascades of greenery and the stonework that define our project pay homage to the structures that once exemplified Roman grandeur."</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a pool, communal green spaces, an office and a coffee shop.</p>


First look: Fortezza Group takes The Belvedere, Nelson Bay apartment development, to NSW Government

<p>Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.</p>

<p>They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.</p>

<p>They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.</p>

<p>Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor</p>

<p>Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" /></p>

<p>Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>​</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.</p>

<p>With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.</p>


Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2016/11/labour-market-weakness-under-hood"></a></h3>
<div id="post-body-5100146898223249015" class="post-body entry-content">Let's begin with the good news, because I'm in a jolly good mood and don't want to spoil it.<br><br>It won't take long anyway, as there isn't really that much good news to report!<br><br><div>The unemployment rate ticked down to 5.35 percent in original terms, the lowest in well over three years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In seasonally adjusted terms the unemployment rate of 5.58 percent was the lowest in 42 months, and well below the 6.32 percent seen in January 2015 (click the graphics to expand, as always!).<br><br>
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<div>Drilling the trend line through the figures, the unemployment rate of 5.6 percent looks healthy enough. </div>
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<div>In New South Wales the trend unemployment rate has continued to decline to just 4.89 per cent, the lowest figure in nearly six years, while Victoria and Queensland are also moving in the right direction.<br><br>The trend hasn't caught up but Queensland's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 5.8 per cent. Bonzer.</div>
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<div>Tasmania and Western Australia are heading the other way. </div>
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<br><div>Although not charted here due to their respective small sample sizes, the unemployment rates in the Northern Territory (3.5 per cent) and the ACT (3.4 per cent) are low. </div>
<br>OK, that's great. Now brace for the not-so-cheerful news....<br><br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">"Jobs and growth?" Maaate...</span></strong></div>
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<div>Hiring is usually strong at this time of year, and total employment increased by about +78,800 over the last two months.</div>
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<div>After accounting for seasonality, however, this month's increase was only +9,800, although that figure did at least include a vast swing back to full-time employment of +41,500. </div>
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<div>This all sounds cool until we revisit what happened last month, which was a big seasonally adjusted drop in employment, while full-time employment is nearly 90,000 lower than at the beginning of the year.</div>
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<div>Looking through the noise, the trend in employment growth now looks poor. </div>
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<br><div>Another way to look at this is to view the annual trend employment change, which has dropped to +108,100, or an a trend annual increase of only +0.9 percent. </div>
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<br><div>The annual rate of employment growth is at its lowest level in 23 months and is now below the rate of population growth, and categorically 'not good enough'!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria has now cruised to the top of the employment growth charts, with Victoria (+107,300) and New South Wales (+46,100) accounting for more than all of the net employment growth over the past year.<br><br>Employment in Tasmania dived by -3,400 in October to be -4,300 lower than a year ago. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Queensland employment fell by -16,900 in the month, and by -46,000 over the year. This month's result was a rogue statistic due to the sample rotation from September, though there's no question that employment in aggregate has weakened in the Sunshine State, led by resources-related job losses in locations such as Townsville. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'll look at the Queensland figures by region in more detail next week. </div>
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<br><div>Shadow Treasurer Scott Emerson highlighted that 67,600 jobs had been lost in Queensland since the beginning of the year and that "anyone who sees today's result as good news doesn't understand how tough it is to find a job in Queensland".</div>
<div> </div>
<div>He's right about the second part, but clearly he didn't read the commentary on the incoming sample and cocked up his numbers by calculating them from the end of January rather than the beginning. Maybe that was deliberate. Oh well, at least his job doesn't require strong numeracy skills! </div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>While the unemployment rate superficially looks positive, the participation rate is well down and now at the lowest level since early 2006. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite a much improved monthly result, total hours worked - as useful an indicator as any when looking at a volatile survey - increased by only +0.9 per cent over the year to October, and less in trend terms. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And despite the wild swing back to full-time employment this month, it's important to see through the monthly noise and understand that much of the growth in jobs has been part-time in nature over recent times.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Therefore, we have the weakest nominal wages growth on record, some of the weakest non-tradables inflationary pressures on record, and weak employment growth across recent months. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sounds like the easing cycle isn't over to me, but markets remain tentative for now, and job vacancies figures have admittedly been solid enough.<br><br>I will just note that when the labour force report prints solidly most commentary states that it must be somehow wrong, yet when the figures are weaker (as they are now) they are instantly taken at face value!<br><br>Something to bear in mind if the headline figure snaps back up next month...</div>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div class="post-footer"> 
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Labour market: weakness under the hood

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<p class="x_MsoNormal"><em>Hi Margaret,</em></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><em>I am currently educating myself on property investing before buying my first investment property.</em></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><em>I am currently reading your book “Investing in the right property now!” in the third chapter you mention looking for an area which has low housing starts. My question is how to quantify “low”, I realise there is probably  no magic number but should I be looking for a region where housing start do not exceed population growth or should I simply assess the areas vacancy rates as an indicator of whether the new developments are creating an over supply.</em></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><em>As an example, one area which I am considering an investment has a population of ~50,000, an annual population growth of 1 percent and housing starts are as follows 2015-‘16=447; ‘14-‘15=340; ‘13-‘14=243; ‘12-‘13=227</em></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><em>Of course I am considering many other factors when analysing an area as mentioned in your books but this is just the one I am having troubles with at this point in time</em></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><em>Thank you kindly,</em></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><em>Sam</em></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span> </span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Hi Sam, </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span>Your question is a good one and it’s important to consider a range of factors when choosing an area where you would like to invest in property.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span>I would like to point out that, as mentioned in the book, you have to ensure that you don’t get caught up in just one statistic or factor, as that factor alone could be painting a different picture than the one you want to eventuate!</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span>Let me explain.  There are many growth drivers, and they all work as only a small part of an overall puzzle, somewhat like a jigsaw puzzle. With too many pieces missing, the puzzle just does not work.  The more pieces you can fit into that puzzle, the better the picture becomes. </span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span>Where property is concerned, the pieces are the growth drivers, but taken alone a single piece is not enough, or may not provide the right picture. Take the ‘housing starts’ you refer to. The idea behind ensuring that there is not too much development going on is to ensure that the area is not oversupplied with property.  Since the only thing which ultimately drives growth is demand, an oversupply of property will dilute that demand and lead to a sustained period of low, or no growth.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span>Now,  you may find an area with 50,000 population and low housing starts, but those low housing starts figures could be because no one is moving there, or there is little employment or anything else happening in the area.  And so the low housing start factor must be combined with a population growing faster than inflation, diversified employment, no new land for future development and a number of other factors for it to be a pointer to future property price growth.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span>There is no figure or calculation, but if the population is growing by, say, 1 percent per annum and housing starts are only growing by 0.5% per annum, and other drivers <em>also </em>exist, then it makes sense that a future increased demand for housing may ensue.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span>Always make sure that you examine all of the factors – it is the trend of those factors and their relationship to each other which becomes important, rather than the number itself.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span><span>Have a property question? </span><span><em> </em><a href="mailto:news@propertyobserver.com.au" target="_blank"><span><em>Ask Margaret!</em></span></a></span></span></p>
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mlomas-KC9MUPZ6Ca

Low housing start insights for investors: Ask Margaret

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<p>For those of you who follow my writings (I am grateful), you may be aware that I started my property journey 14 years ago.</p>
<p>Lately, I’ve been reflecting on what’s happened over that time. It’s nice to allow time to remember because life can be so hectic.</p>
<p>14 years ago I purchased my first investment property. I had purchased two homes (principal places of residence – PPRs) before then but one of them hardly counts.</p>
<p>I’d bought a house with a boyfriend who decided a few weeks after we settled on the property and moved in together, that he wanted to ‘explore’ a relationship with an old flame.</p>
<p>Well that went down like a ton of bricks!</p>
<p>Here I was working crazy hours in a product manager’s role, studying at university three nights a week and just invested all of my hard earned savings into a home with someone now thinking the grass may be greener elsewhere.</p>
<p>Needless to say I ‘asked’ him (very loose description) to move out, giving my blessing for his so called ‘exploration’ project. I then put the house up for lease and moved home to mum and dad – thank goodness for parents.</p>
<p>After a couple of years, I sold my 50 percent share to him, recouped my savings and promptly used them for a deposit on my second home, bought with a husband this time. I’m still living in this home and it has served us well.</p>
<p>Back to my investments…it all started when I was pregnant with my first son and picked up the book Rich Dad, Poor Dad by Robert Kiyosaki. This was life changing for me and literally a light bulb moment.</p>
<p>I put the book down, booked into an intensive property educational course and whilst studying, working, pregnant and highly motivated, bought my first investment property. It settled around the same time my beautiful son was born and I couldn’t have been happier. I was now a property investor and a mother.</p>
<p>This led to buying four more within two years. Sydney was in a growth phase – it was 2002 - but still property seemed very expensive, pretty much like right now! I quickly learnt that whilst the properties were increasing in value, the yields in Sydney were decreasing. I needed cash flow and the properties I’d purchased were negatively geared. Not bad for my tax returns, but still draining.</p>
<p>I’d already started researching large regional areas outside of Sydney where properties were cheap, rents were strong and land size large. I purchased a property, renovated the house, added two dwellings and subdivided it. Now I was a property developer as well as an investor.</p>
<p>I loved the idea of adding value and creating equity, rather than passively waiting for growth.</p>
<p>This led to my property development project management business; Property Bloom. I had two friends who saw what I was doing and wanted me to manage a development for them. And so I started a system that I’ve never stopped refining. My first two clients/friends lead to many more and now I’ve developed over 100 properties for happy investors who wanted to take their first step into property development but needed some help.</p>
<p>What else has happened?</p>
<p>I had another beautiful son 9 years ago. This was interesting times with a little baby and a 6-year-old to care for and a growing business to run, I worked harder than ever. There was no napping when the baby slept, I’d jump into the office when he napped during the day and work into the nights. I was tired but determined.</p>
<p>My determination came from watching my parents retire on very little. There was no Super in those days. They had some money from selling the family home and downsizing to a sea change location but had to rely on pensions. No grand world trips to celebrate years of hard work for them. They were still happy, but had less options. I wanted a lot more for my retirement. I wanted the freedom and options that comes from having money.</p>
<p>My property portfolio appreciated and my business grew. I felt I was finally building wealth. Then, 3 years ago the worst thing happened.</p>
<p>After almost 20 years, my marriage crumbled and I found myself in the most difficult time of my life. I was scared. I didn’t know how I could get through it or what the future held. I focussed on one day at a time and thank goodness my business kept me focussed.</p>
<p>Guess what? I did get through it, my financial situation actually improved even after the property settlement with my ex and I am happy. I coped because the energy around me changed. I know this sounds a bit new agey but the energy in my life during the final stages of marriage was not good. As soon as things changed, I literally felt positivity radiating around me. I have awesome friends, awesome sons and awesome family that all helped me and I am very grateful.</p>
<p>I have learnt that gratitude is paramount. When you feel grateful, you feel great. Try it. Think of something you are really grateful about and I guarantee it’s put a smile on your face. You can also attract things and people into your life with the right focus and energy. Trust me it works.</p>
<p>When I read that book 14 years ago, I had no investments and were about to start a family. Now I have a portfolio of investments and feel secure about my future. My pride and joy – second to my two sons of course - is Property Bloom, my business. I get to do exactly what I love every day, help others and have flexibility and time for my boys and special friends.</p>
<p>Life is good. </p>
<p><em><em>Jo Chivers is chief executive officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a><a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/">.</a></em></em></p>
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jochivers-wq5Bp59R5a

A lot can happen in 14 years: Jo Chivers

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<p>Kudos to the NSW government by becoming the first elected government in NSW to achieve a cash positive financial position – quite amazing that never before has this been achieved.</p>
<p>The words ‘debt free’ don’t exactly go hand in hand with governments these days as we have become too accustomed to the monetary phrases of debt and deficits.</p>
<p>NSW Treasurer Gladys Berejiklian confirmed this week that NSW would post a $4.7 billion surplus in 2015/16 which just so happens to be $1.3 billion more than predicted in the June budget just four months ago. Still a massive turnaround from 30 June 2015 when net debt sat at $5.5 billion to a $57 million surplus as at 30 June 2016.</p>
<p>No doubt reassuring for the government who pledged a further $20 billion in infrastructure at the 2015 election, which includes a second harbour crossing. Now to a big property decision which is the elephant in the room in the form of stamp duty. Sydney’s new market which is the tens of thousands of new apartments under construction which have handsomely rewarded the government in the form of stamp duty. There would be significant question marks over foreign purchasers completing once these projects are finished.</p>
<p>It is worth noting that the treasurer is expecting stamp duty growth of 4.4 per cent per annum over the next four years whilst also predicting stamp duty revenue would hit $8.9 billion in 2016/17. As to that prediction I offer just two words – Good Luck! </p>
<p>Investors would be no doubt observing the recent commentary by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) who noted “growth in rents is the slowest for decades”. So one then can only presume that the bait rent projections provided to the tens of thousands of off – the – plan buyers have next to no chance of coming to fruition? Furthermore, these rental projections play an intricate role in determining the amount of borrowings leveraged against each investor property.</p>
<p>According to realestate.com.au figures numbers of Chinese buyers looking to buy in Sydney have fallen by 9 per cent over the past twelve months. Many (including myself) expect these numbers to keep falling as a direct result of the NSW government’s recently introduced Foreign Investor Surcharge.</p>
<p>NSW Treasurer Gladys Berejiklian has announced that the June 21 NSW Budget will include the introduction of foreign investor surcharges on stamp duty and land tax on residential real estate.<br>The measures are expected to raise more than $1 billion over four years and will fund essential services across NSW. “These new measures will ensure NSW’s property market continues to be an attractive destination for international investors while making sure that we are able to fund vital services into the future,” Ms Berejiklian said.</p>
<p>This initiative has not gone down well with foreign investors. One only has to look at what happened to the foreign buyer tax in Vancouver which saw a very hot market transition almost immediately to a frozen market overnight once the 15 per cent tax was announced. For example, property prices collapsed 33 per cent in September from a year ago.</p>
<p>Now for some other very big questions that are being asked and answered within the real estate industry currently that do require special consideration.</p>
<p>When you look back at the history of real estate in Australia a distinct observation has been the popularity of real estate franchises. In 2016 we have seen the lowest volumes of stock levels ever seen before, for example this week in Mosman there are 32 houses for sale, in 2015 there were 49, in 2014 82 and in 2013 there were 119 houses on the market that week.</p>
<p>Now a franchise office that operates within the one allocated postcode simply can no longer survive on these reduced stock levels as salespeople will look for work with businesses that offer unlimited or much larger farming areas. There has also been heated discussions about franchise fees which are performance based much like income tax. The more you sell the larger the franchise fee – in 1994 we went over to a flat fee so many franchise offices are demanding that fee structure.</p>
<p>Somewhat ironic that stamp duty was a blessing in disguise for the NSW government’s finances yet it is the reason why fewer homes are now on the market as owners have opted to invest the amounts they would pay in stamp duty into renovations. This also means that the selling cycle changes will blow out significantly as home owners will stay much longer in the principal place of residence.</p>
<p>So from Christmas on you can expect many franchise offices to rebrand (and no I’m not talking about my office) simply because we are seeing fewer and fewer properties on the market. Change is inevitable although it takes a long, long time to see tax changes from elected governments. Ping: The Henry Tax Review and NSW stamp duty to name just two examples.</p>
<p>In the meantime, businesses will re-calibrate and make the economic decisions required to stay afloat and progress down that path of longevity. I predict major changes to the Australian real estate franchise landscape from 2017.</p>
<h4>MOSMAN – 2088</h4>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 49<br>Number of houses on the market last week – 32<br>Number of houses on the market this week – 34<br>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 60<br>Number of apartments on the market last week – 32<br>Number of apartments on the market this week – 34</p>
<h4>CREMORNE – 2090</h4>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 13<br>Number of houses on the market last week – 15<br>Number of houses on the market this week – 13<br>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 23<br>Number of apartments on the market last week – 15<br>Number of apartments on the market this week – 13</p>
<h4>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h4>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 9<br>Number of houses on the market last week – 5<br>Number of houses on the market this week – 7<br>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 23<br>Number of apartments on the market last week – 22<br>Number of apartments on the market this week – 22</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>ROBERT SIMEON is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. </em></p>
<p><em>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000.</em></p>
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

It’s time for some very BIG property decisions: Robert Simeon

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<p>In some markets and circumstances, declining dwelling commencements can be a fair indicator that prices may be about to follow suit.</p>
<p>I don't want to generalise too much here, because there are of course different sub-markets and sectors.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, note how in Western Australia the dwelling price index peaked in Q1 2014, stalled in Q2 2014, before losing its mojo and beginning to decline in the third quarter of that year, by which time dwelling starts were already on their way down as builders had anticipated the downturn. </p>
<p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><a href="/images/2016/10/17/BA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></span></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/10/17/BA1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div id="post-body-7273343903178272230" class="post-body entry-content">
<br><div>Why does this happen? </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Predominantly because developers have become aware that demand is fading, and are understandably reluctant to commence a project if the sale of the end product for an acceptable profit is in doubt. </div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">House commencements robust</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Detached houses on average take 6 to 8 months from commencement to completion, although sometimes a bit less than six months in the sprawling greenfield sites of Queensland and the Northern Territory. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Western Australia, detached house commencements peaked in the middle of 2014 as it became increasingly clear that the resources sector was slowing significantly and demand for housing was dropping.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Elsewhere commencements for detached homes remain fairly robust in trend terms, while in Victoria sentiment appears to be positively serene. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is not without reason: population growth in Victoria is tracking at close to 115,000 per annum with inbound interstate migration heading to record highs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With variable rate home loans available from well under 4 per cent buyers for new homes in Melbourne should be sourced reasonably comfortably over the next few quarters.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/10/17/BA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/10/17/BA2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Progressively through the cycles, Sydney is increasingly struggling to provide new build houses at affordable prices - the successive peaks in new house construction are falling - except out towards the western and south-western city fringes where infrastructure is painfully sparse and demand for housing inherently lower. </div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Other dwellings - units</span></strong><br><br>The dynamic for the market in attached dwellings is markedly different!<br><br><div>This construction cycle has seen the approval of more high density and 'high rise' apartments than ever before. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A unit or apartment project might take 15 to 21 months on average to be completed from the point of commencement, which in part explains why completions have taken so long to have an impact through this cycle.<br><br>In Sydney and Melbourne it is usual for apartment projects to take more than 24 months to complete on average, largely due to brownfield site remediation challenges (the figure is much lower in Queensland, for example, at around 19 to 20 months). <br><br>With lead times for new apartments so much longer, developers are often required to ensure a certain percentage of pre-sales before project financing can be secured. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Commencements of attached dwellings remain strong in New South Wales. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, in fact, we should expect attached dwelling commencements to remain higher than their long run averages in Sydney (on average, through the cycle), since over the last three decades fewer houses are being constructed, while population growth today is typically higher. For now at least.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Concentration risk</span></strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) provided some useful analysis of how many inner city apartments are expected to be completed in the next two years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Sydney the number is 10,000, representing a relatively low share of the established dwelling stock when compared to other cites.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney's construction boom is quite widely dispersed, although as usual there will only be a comparatively small increase in the dwelling stock in the beachside eastern suburbs or the treasured garden suburbs of the lower north shore. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In LGAs such as Parramatta, on the other hand, there are still thousands more apartment completions expected, and the north west is another region that is expected to suffer from oversupply. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/10/17/RBA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/10/17/RBA.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: Reserve Bank</span></em></div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Melbourne (16,000) and Brisbane (12,000) the number of expected inner city apartment completions is both higher and more concentrated, and as such will also represent a greater percentage increase in the dwelling stock.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This has been well enough known for some time, not least by developers with their ears to the ground. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sure enough, total attached dwelling commencements are now in decline in Victoria and Queensland, while in Western Australia they peaked all the way back in 2014. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/10/17/BA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/10/17/BA3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>In the southern states the figures for attached dwellings are relatively immaterial, and thus are not included for discussion here. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In both Melbourne and Brisbane it is easily possible to find plenty of examples of apartments being resold for less than they were initially bought for 'as new', a sure sign of the impending downturn.<br><span><br></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span>The wrap</span></span></strong><br><span><br></span><span>Attached dwelling commencements are likely to decline further through 2017 as developers fear that new off-the-plan purchasers are at risk of not settling, particularly those based offshore. </span><br><span><br></span><span>To date, non-settlements have reportedly remained low, and material losses to banks have not yet resulted.</span><br><span><br></span><span>In theory - at least in areas and property types that people actually want to live in! - while credit remains available markets should be self-correcting in time as dwelling commencements fall, and buyers sensing bargains populate the newly supplied markets. </span><br><span><br></span><span>The Reserve Bank took a detailed look at the apartment sector in its bi-annual Financial Stability Review, and concluded:</span><br><em><br></em><em>"Any oversupply in Australia would be more localised to certain geographic areas, and potential price falls tempered as the population moved to absorb the new (and cheaper) supply of housing in these areas over time."</em><br><em><br></em><span>Of course, central banks rarely predict catastrophes, for fear that they may become self-fulfilling. </span><span>Be vigilant!</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Demand is fading, let the apartment downturn commence: Pete Wargent

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div id="post-body-214317517568442024" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>Excluding property loans, low interest rates are not really stimulating commercial finance any longer.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact the ABS Lending Finance figures showed total commercial finance declining moderately once again in August. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In trend terms commercial finance has now been on the slide since May 2015. Yuck!</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/10/18/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/10/18/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>As a result total lending finance is also about 9 percent lower than it was in Q3 2015, even after accounting for a rebound in property investor loans over the past seven months. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/10/18/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/10/18/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Sydney investors return with a vengeance</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>I've been noting for a little while that property investor loans have been quietly creeping back in Australian month-on-month - and in New South Wales in particular - and now the cat is really getting out of the bag again. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Here are the raw original figures for NSW investor loans in calendar year 2016, not seasonally adjusted:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>January $3.1 billion</div>
<div> </div>
<div>February $3.9 billion</div>
<div> </div>
<div>March $4.5 billion</div>
<div> </div>
<div>April $4.5 billion </div>
<div> </div>
<div>May $5.3 billion</div>
<div> </div>
<div>June $5.8 billion</div>
<div> </div>
<div>July $5.2 billion</div>
<div> </div>
<div>August $5.5 billion</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Remember these figures aren't seasonally adjusted, so the original or 'like-for-like' figures over the past few years look like this:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>August 2012 $2.7 billion</div>
<div> </div>
<div>August 2013 $3.5 billion</div>
<div> </div>
<div>August 2014 $4.6 billion</div>
<div> </div>
<div>August 2015 $5.0 billion</div>
<div> </div>
<div>August 2016 $5.5 billion</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The equivalent figure during the financial crisis nadir in August 2008 was just $1.7 billion.<br><br>Ex-refinancing, investors in NSW are now accounting for nearly 50 per cent of loans again.<br><br>No other state comes remotely close to that, even Victoria.<br><br>Following last year's macroprudential intervention, the value of property investor loans is now higher than a year ago in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia, and activity looks to be rising again.<br><br>This means that as weaker results start to drop off, when plotted in rolling annual terms, the investor loans chart should be starting to turn up again.<br><br>And, so it is...</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/10/18/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><img src="/images/2016/10/18/A1.jpg" alt=""><br><div> </div>
<div>Even Darwin investor loans now seem to have found a base (as do those in Western Australia) - something I didn't think I'd find myself saying in 2016 - with vacancy rates in the Northern Territory capital apparently now declining again. </div>
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<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br>The increases may look to be moderate to date in rolling annual terms,.<br><br>But overall stock levels are well down on last year, hence the pressure on auction clearance rates in inner-suburban areas.<br><br>Sydney recorded a preliminary auction clearance rate of 80 percent today, with the median auction price running as high as $1,222,500.<br><br>It's another leg up.</div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Sydney property investors come storming back

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<p>There are few real estate activities more depressing than observing a media debate about housing affordability.</p>
<p>It’s a downer because it’s clear from the rhetoric that this nation is unlikely to ever achieve any kind of resolution of the issue.</p>
<p>There are four reasons: (1) the politicians don’t understand it and/or are unwilling to do what’s needed; (2) industry people who do understand it champion their vested interests rather than the national interest; (3) everyone else has their heads full of misinformation, political agendas and unhelpful emotion; and (4) most discussions focus on Sydney prices and ignore the realities in other parts of Australia.</p>
<p>The outcome is mishmash of misconceptions, myths and outright lies. Nothing useful is ever achieved.</p>
<p>A recent discussion of ABS TV program The Drum was representative of how bad it gets. None of the people at the discussion table had any knowledge on the issue and simply indulged their prejudices and personal agendas. One spectacular twit claimed no one can get into the housing market any more because you need a $200,000 deposit to buy a typical house. Not even in Sydney is that remotely close to the truth.</p>
<p>The so-called affordability crisis is never far from the headlines and it stepped up in prominence this week with Federal Treasurer Scott Morrison declaring he was serious about fixing the problem. But of course he wasn’t serious at all. He essentially dumped the problem at the feet of state governments, with a generalised assertion that taking steps to increase dwelling supply will make everything better.</p>
<p>That’s one of the subject’s biggest furphies – a simplistic policy of lifting supply won’t force down prices unless the idea is to deliberately generate a major oversupply. One thing Morrison got right was his statement that you won’t fix the problem by crashing the market.</p>
<p>As a general observation, we don’t need more dwellings in Australia. We’re already building far too many apartments, which will result in falling values, but only in specific areas such as the inner-city unit markets of Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth, as well as surfside Gold Coast. This runs contrary to the statement by Malcolm Turnbull this week that “we simply haven’t been building enough dwellings” – which shows how little he understands about the situation.</p>
<p>Federal Labor responded with its standard party line that restricting tax benefits for investors will make housing affordable again – despite the assertion by leader Bill Shorten that his policy won’t cause house values to decline (so therefore how will it make housing more affordable?). And that, sadly, is the extent of <em>his</em> understanding of the issue.</p>
<p>There followed lots of finger-pointing, with each level of government blaming another level of government for the perceived problems, and each side of politics scapegoating their opponents.</p>
<p>Industry lobby groups leapt at the opportunity to advance their pet causes. Master Builders Australia agreed, naturally, that a big lift in new home construction would be the solution, but argued that politicians needed to make changes to make it really attractive for developers and builders. The Urban Taskforce declared that developers would be happy to build lots of affordable homes, just so long as government handed them plenty of financial incentives. </p>
<p>As I’ve often commented, the biggest noise in real estate is always the voice of vested interest.</p>
<p>Even in Perth, where there is vast oversupply and high vacancies right across the metropolitan area, the Urban Development Institute of Australia urged the WA State Government to take steps to increase housing supply. </p>
<p>To paraphrase Shakespeare, they were all tales told by idiots, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.</p>
<p>The problem is that none of solutions put forward will make the required difference. They’re all targeting the wrong villains.</p>
<p>Everyone has a theory on who’s to blame for rising prices: some say foreign investors, others claim Australian investors, a few proclaim it’s first-home buyers pumped up by government incentives and still others, including former federal minister Bob Carr, reckon it’s the high level of overseas migration into Australia.</p>
<p>Who’s right? Well, none of them. The real culprits are never mentioned.</p>
<p>The biggest single force in driving house prices comprises the market sector known as next-time buyers –i.e. home-buyers other than first-home buyers. Numerically they’re the biggest chunk of the market and they’re aspirational. They have the financial capacity and ambition to pay top dollar to secure the property they’re obsessing over.</p>
<p>Investors, generally, don’t do that and first-timers can’t afford to.</p>
<p>But there’s an even bigger villain, one the politicians never mention while they’re busy pointing their fingers in various other directions - because the biggest problems are caused by the politicians themselves.</p>
<p>The value of homes in Australia is under-pinned by their replacement cost – i.e. the high cost of creating new house-and-land packages, the biggest chunk of which comprises taxes, fees and charges from all three levels of government.</p>
<p>As long as local, state and federal governments treat the housing industry as a beloved cash cow, housing will remain pricey in this country. Most of the state budgets handed down this year made the problem worse by adding to housing costs. </p>
<p>You can build as many new houses as you like, but developers can’t sell them for $250,000 if they cost $400,000 to create.</p>
<p>Federal politicians recently conducted an inquiry into the affordability issue, which took a lot of time, cost of lot of money and achieved absolutely nothing. The Federal Government made a show of clamping down on foreigners illegally buying mansions, but that has changed nothing for first-home buyers </p>
<p>Last year another inquiry was initiated by the House of Representatives economics committee but, according to reports this week, that has lapsed through lack of energy.</p>
<p>So where are we after all that “sound and fury”? Exactly the same place we were before Scott Morrison stepped up to the microphone – nowhere closer to any solutions.</p>
<p class="Body"><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

We don’t need more dwellings in Australia

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<div>There are still a great many property investors around in the market right now, so there shouldn't be too much upwards pressure on rents at the national level.</div>
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<div>And, so it is!</div>
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<div>The weighted average annual rents inflation across Australia's eight capital cities steadied at +0.7 per cent in the third quarter of calendar year 2016, according to the ABS Consumer Price Index figures. </div>
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<div>As you can clearly see in the chart below, nominal rental prices at the national level only tend to spike dramatically when property investors are spooked out of the market for some reason, thereby stymying the available supply of rental stock.</div>
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<div>This has only happened twice over the past 35 years or so, with the most recent trigger point being the global financial crisis. </div>
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<div>However, with mortgage rates close to their record lows, there are presently oodles of investors in the domestic market - and many more from overseas too! - even in the face of recent curbs. </div>
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<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">City by city</span></strong><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>
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<div>Of course, the outlook is as always quite different for each capital city, region, and sub-region.<br><br>
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<div>I have presented a second chart below as an index to show what has happened to nominal rents over the last four-and-a-half decades.</div>
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<div>One of the reasons I have done so is that although commentators seemingly love to spin out 'inflation-adjusted' results, the reality for many of us living today is that we often have 'rent versus buy' equations to weigh up, and for these decisions we understandably - and logically - tend to think in nominal terms.<br><br>"Are rents rising? Are dwelling prices rising? What about holding costs? Will mortgage rates increase or decrease? What is the smartest financial decision here?"</div>
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<div>In Sydney, annual rents inflation accelerated slightly to +2.5 per cent, which is still close to double the +1.3 per cent headline rate of inflation.</div>
<div>
<br>Blogsites and media do love a good falling rents meme, but this hasn't really been backed up by the facts, at least in Sydney's case.<br><br>Indeed, Sydney rents have increased at double the rate of inflation for nearly a decade now.<br><br>
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<div>Since the beginning of 2007 Sydney's rental index has increased by +54 per cent, exactly double the rate of inflation for the harbour city over the same time horizon. </div>
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<div>Rental growth may be softer than it was, and in fact it is already easing in some pockets of Sydney, but rents have hardly 'fallen' since the financial crisis as commentary sometimes tries to imply.</div>
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<div>It's a very different Jackanory in the resources capitals, mind you.<br><br>After a great surge in both rents and dwelling prices through the heady days of the resources boom, the rental index numbers are in full on decline mode in Perth, falling back by -6.4 per cent over the year to September.<br><br>This puts the rental index for Perth back close to where it was at the peak of the mining boom four years ago in Q3 2012.<br><br><div><span>And in Darwin, the equivalent year-on-year decline has been -7.7 per cent, although certain other metrics have implied that the real estate market in the Top End may be stabilising somewhat. </span></div>
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<br><div>Rental growth is flat on this index in Canberra, while interestingly the rental growth index for Adelaide has by and large tracked that of Melbourne closely for almost the entire data series since 1972. You learn something new every day!</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Supply response cavalry now arriving</span></strong></div>
<br><div>The chart above hints at why Rory Robertson was always unlikely to lose his high profile 2008 bet cf. Sydney house prices correcting sharply.</div>
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<div>While the annual rate of population growth in New South Wales rose incessantly from 2004 to 2008 up to an annualised peak of nearly 118,000, very little accommodation was actually being built, and this has resulted in nearly a chronic supply shortage and nearly a decade of strong rents growth. </div>
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<div>What you don't need any charts to tell you - just listen to the jackhammers! - is that this dynamic has at last changed, with dwelling construction at now really hitting its straps over the last couple of years, and a veritable flood of apartment completions in the post.<br><br>---<br><br>In other news, Domain reported that Sydney's median house price rose by +2.7 per cent in the September quarter to a fresh all-time high of $1,068,000.<br><br>In Melbourne, the median house price rose by an even more sprightly +3.1 per cent over the quarter and +9.1 per cent over the year to also hit a record high of $774,000.<br><br>Somewhat surprisingly, median unit prices in Melbourne performed even more strongly again in the quarter in rising by +4.5 percent, to be +5.5 percent higher over the year.<br><br>Melbourne has been constructing dwellings like fury in recent years, but population growth has accelerated to extraordinarily high levels as you can see in the chart above. </div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Rental growth steadies, though not in Sydney

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<p><span>Throughout November, capital city dwelling values rose by 0.2 percent. </span></p>
<p><span>While the headline results remained in positive growth territory, the monthly capital gain reading was also the softest result since December 2015 when capital city dwelling values were unchanged over the month. The combined regional areas of Australia showed a weaker result with house values falling by 0.2 percent over the month. </span></p>
<p><span>The soft performance across the combined capital city reading was attributable to a 1.5 percent fall in the Melbourne index, while all other capital cities recorded a positive month-on-month result.</span></p>
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<p><span>Delving </span><span>into the Melbourne results in more detail showed that unit values were down a larger 3.2 percent in November, while Melbourne house values declined by 1.3 percent over the month.</span><span><br></span></p>
<p><span>The November figures show that capital city dwelling values rose by 1.7 percent over the three months of spring; a substantial improvement over last year. Spring 2015 saw capital city dwelling values fall by 0.2 percent, with auction clearance rates dipping below 60 percent in late November and early December. </span></p>
<p><span>In contrast, auction clearance rates held firm in the mid-70 percent range throughout spring this year, with Sydney clearance rates holding around the 80 percent mark over the past three months. </span></p>
<p><span>On an annual basis, every capital city except for Perth is now showing a positive annual trend in dwelling value growth. The highest annual growth rate is evident in Sydney and Melbourne where dwelling values are now 13.1 percent and 11.3 percent higher respectively, reflecting a steeper upwards trajectory in growth over the second half of the year. The Hobart and Canberra markets have also seen some acceleration in growth rate trends with dwelling values up 8.5 percent, and 8.4 percent respectively over the past twelve months.</span></p>
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<p><span>For the first time since February 2015, </span><span>Darwin’s </span><span>annual growth rate has moved back into the black and recorded a 1.1 percent rise in dwelling values over the past year. Results for smaller cities such as Darwin, can tend to show higher levels of volatility. </span></p>
<p><span>The </span><span>November results also show a rise in transaction numbers across the Darwin market over recent months, supporting the moderate improvement in market conditions that the hedonic index is showing.</span><span><br></span></p>
<p><span>Currently the national growth cycle has been in play for 4.5 years, with capital city dwelling values rising by 42.2 percent over the cycle to date. </span></p>
<p><span>Disaggregating </span><span>this growth figure highlights the diversity in market conditions with Sydney and Melbourne at one end of the spectrum experiencing an increase in dwelling values over this period of 67.3 percent and 46.3 percent respectively, while at the other end of the spectrum, Perth and Darwin values have broadly declined since 2014. Perth values are 6.9 percent higher since the cycle commenced in June 2012, while Darwin values are 13.8 percent higher over this period.</span><span><br></span></p>
<p><span>It </span><span>appears that higher unit supply is progressively weighing down the capital gains across </span><span>Melbourne’s </span><span>unit sector, with annual capital gains tracking at 3.9 percent for Melbourne units compared with a 12.2 percent annual gain in Melbourne house values.</span> </p>
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<p><span>A </span><span>similar trend can be seen in Brisbane, where the supply of units across key inner city regions is also high. Brisbane house values were up 4.3 percent over the past twelve months compared with a 0.9 percent fall in unit values.</span><span><br></span></p>
<p><span>With </span><span>the unit supply pipeline remaining substantial, we expect to see a continuation of weaker market conditions across those unit markets where high supply levels are dampening the prospects for higher value </span><span>growth.</span></p>
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<p><span>Rental yields reached a new record low in November across the combined capitals index due to dwelling values continuing to rise at a faster pace than weekly rental rates. The average gross rental yield across combined capital city dwellings is now recorded at 3.2 percent, down from 3.5 percent a year ago and 4.1 percent five years ago. </span></p>
<p><span>Sydney and Melbourne share the lowest yield profile for detached housing, with an average of 2.8% in both cities, while the gross yield on Sydney units has fallen well below </span><span>Melbourne’s </span><span>at 3.8 percent. </span></p>
<p><span>With </span><span>rental markets remaining soft, it is likely there will be further yield compression across those markets where residential property values are rising.</span><span><br></span></p>
<p><span>The </span><span>only market segments where yields have improved over the past 12 months were the Hobart and Canberra unit markets where rental rates have shown a higher growth rate than unit values.</span><span><br></span></p>
<p><span>It </span><span>appears as though the low yield profile is no deterrent to investors, with ABS housing finance data showing a consistent rise in finance commitments for investment purposes since May this year. </span></p>
<p><span>Clearly </span><span>investors are continuing to see housing as the preferred investment option, despite low yields and a mature growth cycle.</span><span><br></span></p>
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<p><span>Settled transaction numbers nationally have reversed their downward trend over recent months with CoreLogic estimates of settled sales rising to the highest level in a year. Even though transaction numbers have improved, settled sales remain 9.6 percent lower than a year ago. Every state and territory has shown a reduction in settled sales over the year, however the largest fall has been in Victoria with a 14.9 percent year-on-year decline. In contrast, CoreLogic mortgage valuation platforms experienced record daily volumes earlier this week, reflecting the robust level of late season market activity. </span></p>
<p><span>As the last month of spring, November has seen listing numbers ramp up more substantially with the total number of homes advertised for sale over the past month now tracking higher than a year ago. The latest CoreLogic listing counts show there were approximately 113,500 properties advertised for sale over the past 28 days across the capital cities, which is 2.4 percent higher than the same time a year ago. </span></p>
<p><span>Despite higher listing numbers at a combined capitals level, the hottest markets are still showing listing numbers lower than a year ago. Sydney listings are 9.4 percent lower than last year, while advertised stock levels in Melbourne are 2.9 percent lower. Hobart listings have fallen sharply compared with last year, to be 29 eprcent lower, whilst Canberra stock is 7.6 percent lower than a year ago. </span></p>
<p><span>Lower </span><span>stock levels in these markets are likely to be one factor contributing to the upwards pressure on dwelling values. Vendors are still very much in the </span><span>driver’s </span><span>seat in these markets and buyers have little in the way of leverage to negotiate, or time to consider their purchase decision.</span><span><br></span></p>
<p><span>The </span><span>strong selling conditions can also be seen in the average selling time, which is tracking at 31 and 32 days in Sydney and Melbourne respectively. Canberra and Hobart are showing the third and fourth fastest average selling times across the capital cities, at 44 and 48 days respectively.</span><span><br></span></p>
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<p><span>With </span><span>real estate agent activity across CoreLogic platforms easing over the past two weeks, it suggests that we may have moved through the peak of new listings activity. Additionally, as we move into the first month of summer, the housing market is likely to remain active for another two weeks before we start to see the normal seasonal slowdown in buyer numbers.</span><span><br></span></p>
<p><span>After four and a half years of strong value growth, Mr Lawless said </span><span>it’s </span><span>hard to imagine a reacceleration in property values could be long lived. </span></p>
<p><span>Affordability </span><span>constraints are creating high barriers to entry, particularly in Sydney, and lenders are becoming more cautious in their lending practices. The supply pipeline is substantial for inner city units, which is likely to dampen value growth in these precincts as well as dent buyer confidence and push vacancy rates higher.</span><span><br></span></p>
<p><span>Additionally, </span><span>buyer enthusiasm could be muffled by speculation that interest rates may rise late next year, with fixed rates already starting to edge higher.</span><span><br></span></p>
<p><span>With </span><span>household debt at record levels, Australians are very sensitive to the cost of debt, and an expectation that the period of record low mortgage rates is approaching an end may reduce buyer </span><span>demand.</span><span> </span></p>
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<p><span><em>Tim Lawless is head of the CoreLogic research and analytics team and can be contacted <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></span></p>
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tlawless-5VLUrbAk9s

Sydney dwelling values up 13 percent over the year while Perth remains in decline: Tim Lawless

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<p>A defining feature of 2016 was that knowing where NOT to buy became as important as where to buy.</p>
<p>Until recently, for investors it’s simply been a matter of buying in the places where prices were rising, mainly Sydney and Melbourne.  For most of the past 3-4 years, it’s felt as if owning real estate anywhere in the two biggest cities was a guarantee of capital growth.</p>
<p>As we contemplate 2017, buyers need to be lot more particular about their choice of location. Now, more than any time in the past four years, there’s a real prospect of losing money if you choose badly. Next year my No Go Zones report will be as important as the Best Buys report.</p>
<p>And the key factor in that equation is oversupply, specifically for apartments in specific locations. Both Sydney and Melbourne, as well as other parts of Australia, have locations I classify as “danger markets”.</p>
<p>And it’s clear that people are already choosing badly.</p>
<p>CoreLogic has published a report which was designed as the most popular places to buy but which, inadvertently, served as a de facto No Go Zones report. It highlighted most of the worst places to buy in the nation.</p>
<p>The fact that these were the most popular places for buyers, based on the number of sales in the past 12 months, just shows how bad real estate consumers are when it comes to choosing location - and how little research some people do before committing big money.</p>
<p>According to CoreLogic, the most popular market in Australia is the Surfers Paradise apartment market (1,616 sales in the past 12 months), followed by the Melbourne CBD apartment market (1,296). </p>
<p>I’m trying to think of a worse place to buy real estate in the major population centres of Australia, but there are few I can think of. The only real contenders would be the inner-city apartment markets in Perth and Brisbane.</p>
<p>The Brisbane CBD also makes the Top 10 list of most popular places to buy apartments in Australia, alongside the CBD, Southbank and South Yarra in Melbourne, four highrise locations on the Gold Coast, the Adelaide CBD and Dee Why in Sydney.</p>
<p>Not all of those locations are absolute duds but most of them are.</p>
<p>You have to wonder about the thought processes behind buying an apartment in Surfers Paradise. Of the major markets around Australia, there are few with a worse track record on capital growth. The median price today is lower than it was 10 years ago. Very few locations have a record so bad.</p>
<p>Of course, a poor past record doesn’t disqualify a location from the prospect of future growth – but there needs to be evidence that something has changed, or will change to turn the situation around.</p>
<p>But the situation with the high-rise suburbs of the Gold Coast is not changing. It’s situation normal – developers going overboard and building too many apartments. The Gold Coast economy is currently strong and there is growth to be found in the city’s real estate market – but not in the high-rise suburbs, where developers are determined to repeat history through overbuilding, in the belief they can make sales by marketing to poorly-researched investors interstate and overseas.</p>
<p>In the Melbourne CBD, the median apartment price is lower than it was a year ago and three years ago, and about the same as it was five years ago. Is anything set to change? Yes, but not for the better. Massive oversupply will cause vacancies to rise, with rents and property values falling.</p>
<p>Ditto near-city locations like Southbank.</p>
<p>So, as a guide for consumers on where to buy, this list is worse than useless – it’s dangerous.</p>
<p>There’s a different look about the list of Top 10 most popular places for house sales, but as a guide for buyers it also has little value. It consists of new suburbs on the periphery of Melbourne where lots of new homes are being built and three NSW regional cities which are treated as a single suburb, rather than being diverted into individual suburbs like most cities.</p>
<p>So, again, meaningless information of no value to serious investors.</p>
<p>Sadly, many investors employ the “me too” research method. If everyone’s doing it, it must be right. Right?</p>
<p>Those who apply that method after reading these lists, especially the Top 10 list for apartments, run the risk of losing serious money.</p>
<p><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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