<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/far-east-consortium">Far East Consortium</a>’s 640 Bourke Street stands as a testament to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developments/melbourne-vic-3000">Melbourne</a>’s ability to bridge its storied past with a bold vision for the future.&nbsp;

Rising above the heritage-listed Eliza Tinsley building, the development reflects a broader shift toward adaptive reuse in the city, where historical assets are retained and reinterpreted as part of new residential development.

Designed by <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/640-bourke-street-melbourne-640-bourke-street-melbourne-vic-3000">640 Bourke Street</a> incorporates the Eliza Tinsley building as its foundation, housing a grand gallery and lobby space that serve as both a functional and symbolic centrepiece. The heritage façade informs the tower’s design, creating a connection between Melbourne’s past and its contemporary skyline.

"It's a significant asset and wants to be celebrated and experienced by all residents every single time they go in and out of the building," Rothelowman Principal Stuart Marsland said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=365684]

Above this historic base, the 68-storey tower will deliver just over 600 residences, a notable reduction from earlier schemes, reflecting a deliberate move toward larger-format apartments and a stronger owner-occupier focus.

Unlike traditional CBD developments that prioritised investor stock, 640 Bourke Street has been repositioned to respond to changing buyer expectations.

"The discussion was all around making 640 Bourke Street the best residence to live in, to be much more focused on the people in the building rather than people looking at the building," Marsland explained.&nbsp;

This shift is evident in the development’s interiors, which emphasise practical luxury with spacious layouts, high ceilings, and floor-to-ceiling windows framing sweeping views of Melbourne and Port Phillip Bay.&nbsp;

“What it's meant for 640 Bourke is we've actually reduced the number of apartments. We've increased the overall size of the apartments. We don't have any studios in here, and what that does for a project is it elevates it," Lauren Sheldon, Far East Consortium’s Director of Sales and Marketing, said.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=365687]

Rothelowman Associate Jun Chang added, "We were given the opportunity to be more generous. The apartments became bigger and squarer than any other apartments which had been designed in the CBD before that."&nbsp;

Amenities spanning more than 3,000 sqm across multiple levels further reinforce this focus on resident experience. These include a pool, gym, co-working areas, and a range of hospitality-inspired spaces such as a whisky lounge, library, and private dining rooms, many drawing reference from traditional bathhouses and Melbourne’s laneway culture.

"We wanted to make both the pool and the gym area to be absolutely destinational, and when you traverse across to these spaces, there is a gentle familiarity to the beautiful notions of the hammams and the Roman baths, a gentle nod to history," Chang noted.

At street level, the project contributes to the ongoing transformation of the western CBD, with upgrades to Langs Lane and the introduction of retail, hospitality, and gallery spaces designed to activate the precinct and strengthen its connection to the surrounding city fabric.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=365689]

The location places residents within walking distance of Southern Cross Station, Flagstaff Gardens, Queen Victoria Market, and the Docklands waterfront, positioning the development within a rapidly evolving inner-city neighbourhood.

"We believe it's the best site left in the city of Melbourne," Craig Williams, Executive Director at Far East Consortium, said.&nbsp;

640 Bourke Street is Far East Consortium’s 14th building in Melbourne’s western CBD.

"A very elegant designed building. It's going to be a Melbourne statement for many, many years to come."

One-bedroom apartments are priced from around $640,000, with 640 Bourke Street targeting completion in 2029.

Renders shown are Artist's Impressions correct as of May 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=509]

Joel Robinson

Heritage-led design anchors Far East Consortium’s 640 Bourke St, Melbourne

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD Group</a> has set a new residential price record in Queensland with the $30 million sale of the penthouse at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/one-burleigh-88-the-esplanade-burleigh-heads-qld-4220">ONE Burleigh</a> development in Burleigh Heads.

The sale equates to around $37,500 per sqm.

The two-level, 800 sqm penthouse, featuring five bedrooms, five bathrooms, five car spaces, and a private infinity pool overlooking the Pacific Ocean, was acquired by a Gold Coast-based entrepreneur, highlighting continued demand for ultra-premium beachfront product.

Selling agent Freddie Tehle of PRD Burleigh Heads said the result reflects tightening supply of high-quality, large-format apartments in Burleigh.

“There’s very limited opportunity to secure this level of scale and absolute beachfront position in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/burleigh-heads-qld-4220">Burleigh Heads</a>,” Tehle said.

“Buyers are increasingly seeking apartments that genuinely replace a standalone home, and this penthouse delivers that with its size, privacy, and direct ocean frontage.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146358 project_image_fid=323057]

The sale comes as construction progresses on ONE Burleigh, a boutique development of 17 full-floor residences at 88 The Esplanade, scheduled for completion in early 2027.

Developed by MAYD Group and designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/mas-architecture-studio">MAS Architecture</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/sici-design">Sici Design</a>, the project has been positioned as a collection of house-sized beachfront apartments, each occupying an entire floor with around 381 sqm of internal and external living space.

When construction commenced, MAYD director Todd Mould pointed to the long-term resilience of premium coastal real estate as a key driver behind the project.

“Real estate, particularly at the premium end, remains one of the most resilient and proven long-term investment avenues,” Mould said.

“Our ambition is that anyone who buys a MAYD-built product can genuinely feel the care, craftsmanship and commitment we bring to every detail.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146358 project_image_fid=323055]

Each residence has been configured with four bedrooms, multiple living zones, a private office, and expansive ocean-facing terraces. Interiors draw on a restrained material palette, including travertine stone, timber joinery, and integrated premium appliances.

Interior designer Sici Design said the approach was to reflect the project’s coastal setting through both materiality and spatial planning.

“ONE Burleigh is our vision of luxury living, designed to bring the essence of Burleigh Heads' vibrant coastal beauty into an unparalleled residential experience.”

Residents will have access to a suite of wellness-focused amenities, including pools, sauna facilities, and dedicated relaxation spaces, reflecting a broader shift toward lifestyle-driven apartment design on the Gold Coast.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146358 project_image_fid=323052]

The project occupies a southern Esplanade site with uninterrupted beachfront frontage, an increasingly rare offering in Burleigh Heads, free from the Norfolk Pines that line much of the coastline and often limit direct ocean outlook.

Mould said the design intent was to balance that outlook with a sense of retreat.

“Living at ONE Burleigh is about how your day naturally unfolds, morning light across the ocean, coffee on the balcony, and being in Burleigh but elevated above the noise.”

The result further reinforces Burleigh Heads’ emergence as one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held and supply-constrained beachfront markets, where boutique, owner-occupier-focused developments are increasingly setting new price benchmarks.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=146358]

MAYD Group sets Queensland record with $30 million penthouse sale at ONE Burleigh in Burleigh Heads

Apartment developers in the Gold Coast are finding new, creative ways to differentiate themselves from competing projects, as new supply starts to flow through up and down the Coast.

Developer BIG Projects brought in the renowned Sydney-based design studio YSG Studio to craft the interiors for The Frederick, BIG Projects' new Mermaid Beach project and YSG Studio's first move into the multi-residential development space.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5346]

It was a strategic move for BIG Projects to bring in a Sydney eye to the development.

“Our role is to give our design partners the space and freedom to explore,” says Matt Barrett, Director of BIG Projects.

“We wanted YSG Studio to capture the essence of Nobby’s, to design a building that embraces life, light and connection, while creating a genuine sense of place.”

There are only 39 apartments in The Frederick, including a striking beach house, just 100 metres from the booming Nobby Beach precinct.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5347]

Yasmine Ghoniem, Director of YSG Studio, says their vision&nbsp;for The Frederick "reinvents coastal living."

“Nobby’s has such an iconic energy, it’s one of those rare pockets of the Gold Coast where the community, the beach, and the streets all feel connected,” Ghoniem says.

"Responding to the neighbouring coastline, soothing curves add a relaxing regional overlay, while unique detailing really sets it apart. It’s a place that feels lived in from the moment you step inside.”

A standout feature of The Frederick is its rooftop terrace, an uncommon inclusion for a boutique, low-rise building, where amenity is typically concentrated at ground level.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5360]

Positioned to capture panoramic views from the hinterland to the ocean, the rooftop has been designed as a series of intimate zones. It includes a pool, sauna, sun decks, workspaces and dedicated entertaining areas.

“The rooftop was conceived as a collection of spaces where residents can unwind and connect, an extension of the Nobby’s lifestyle,” Barrett says.

Architecture for the project was led by Plus Studio, with landscape design by LDG Landscape Architecture.

SRQ Projects Director Nick Clydsdale, who is handling sales at The Frederick, says the majority of enquiry is coming from South East QLD and Victorian buyers who have been actively searching between Broadbeach and Mermaid Beach for some time.

"They’ve reviewed a number of projects, however this one has stood out for its unique detailing and compelling design,"&nbsp;Clydsdale says.

Site demolition is slated for this month, with construction commencing soon after. BIG Projects is targeting a late 2027 completion.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=110588]

Sydney’s YSG Studio makes Gold Coast multi-residential debut with BIG Projects at The Frederick

Melbourne-based property developer ALTA Property has this week achieved planning approval for the adaptive re-use of a former commercial tower into a $200 million, 169-apartment project at 10 Queens Road, one of the last developable sites along the Albert Park Lake-fronting boulevard.&nbsp;

Set within one of Melbourne’s most sought-after precincts and designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser and Partners</a>, the illustrious building will offer unparalleled views across Albert Park Lake, Port Phillip Bay and Melbourne CBD.&nbsp;

The mix of 1, 2 and 3-bedroom residences will be complemented by a ground-floor amenity featuring private dining, a lounge bar, gym and wellness spaces, co-working, outdoor communal gardens, and retail.&nbsp;

The 17-storey building is a masterclass in adaptive re-use, with the existing commercial building’s façade, shell and internal structure to be retained, before high-end residences are built from the ground up in a newly built Albert Park facing addition to the building.&nbsp;

Sitting atop the building will be two 320+sqm penthouses with private rooftop terraces, which are expected to be priced between $9 - $11 million.&nbsp;

<img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa11211b-5581-43f9-940c-fc84d30a0e61" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/C_04.png?VersionId=Yhf5p_1EgGDu_zOIMFgvA8Ug8j3sTFQs" />

Architecturally, the building will feature a curved, geometric façade that celebrates and elevates the existing structure, with warm, muted tones which were selected to extend the materiality of the existing building rather than contrast it.&nbsp;

Interiors will bring together three metre high ceilings with waffle concrete in some spaces, natural timber, granite and Australian materials, culminating in crafted, generous and considered spaces that are defined by authenticity.&nbsp;

The adaptive re-use means that the Queens Road project will be a sustainability led, high-quality finished product, with a 62% saving in carbon emissions by re-using the existing structure rather than knocking it down and rebuilding.&nbsp;

ALTA Property was launched by Nigel Givoni in 2023, bringing over 25 years of experience in multi level residential delivery.&nbsp;

Melbourne’s property market growth is currently led by apartments. According to RPM VIC Apartments &amp; Townhomes Market Report (April 2026), units are outpacing houses, especially in the middle ring suburbs where median prices hit $757,500 – a four-year high that represents 2.9 percent growth quarter-on-quarter.&nbsp;

<img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="647e13d7-b4bc-433a-9bc9-fe3c3dd4f2ec" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/V_06.png?VersionId=ou4NUCWUgA3NAy.6CQJlEdKX50j3dOk6" />

For ALTA Property Founder Nigel Givoni, this performance speaks to the confidence he has in the Melbourne market.&nbsp;

“Queens Road represents a rare opportunity to continue to shape our presence in the Melbourne market.,"&nbsp;Givoni says.

"With a considered project team and a premier site along one of the city’s most sought-after boulevards, we look forward to contributing to the fabric of this established address.

“Other Australian markets are getting a lot of attention, but I believe the depth of value in Melbourne is being overlooked. The fundamentals are strong, population growth is steady and, based on our preliminary conversations with a leading builder, construction costs are beginning to normalise, creating further opportunity."

Givoni says the project is a&nbsp;highly considered example of adaptive re-use, delivering quality, high-end residences, premium hotel-inspired amenities and an architecturally striking façade, all achieved without the need to remove the existing structure.

"We are really looking forward to the market’s response,” he said.&nbsp;

ALTA Property to deliver $200 million Queens Road apartment tower

Construction is set to begin at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/orchard-mews-glen-iris-18-scott-grove-glen-iris-vic-3146">Orchard Mews</a> in Glen Iris, with&nbsp;PC Whitehall &amp; Sons&nbsp;now appointed as the townhome development moves into its next phase.

The development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/montcoeur">MontCoeur</a>,&nbsp;located at 18 Scott Grove, is now around 30 per cent sold, with completion targeted for late-2027.

Orchard Mews comprises a curated collection of three- and four-bedroom customisable townhomes, positioned within one of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>’ more tightly held residential streets. The low-density project has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo</a>, bringing together a team known for high-end residential projects across Melbourne.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366285]

The development is defined by its focus on flexible living and long-term usability. Each residence includes multiple living zones and a customisable multipurpose room, allowing buyers to tailor spaces to suit changing needs, whether as a home office, additional bedroom, wellness area or entertainment space.

Architecturally, the townhomes emphasise natural light and spatial volume, with dual-aspect layouts and double-height living areas incorporated into the design. Interiors feature natural stone benchtops, premium appliances, and a neutral material palette intended to support everyday functionality rather than statement-driven finishes.

All residences are all-electric and include private lifts and secure double garages, reflecting a broader shift toward sustainability and future-focused housing in Melbourne’s established suburbs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366277]

Outdoor connections are also central to the offering, with a mix of private courtyards and terraces extending internal living spaces and integrating with the landscaped surrounds.

The Scott Grove address places Orchard Mews within close proximity to some of Melbourne’s key lifestyle and education amenities, including Scotch College, Sacré Cœur, Cabrini Hospital and the retail hub of Chadstone. Public transport access is also nearby, with trams and Gardiner Station providing connectivity to the CBD and surrounding suburbs.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150128]

Construction to commence at luxury Glen Iris townhome project, Orchard Mews

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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A development site, in the Western Australian city of Mandurah, has been listed for sale.
Occupying 6,045 square metres, 310 Pinjarra Road is directly opposite the freshly-upgraded Mandurah Forum Shopping Centre.
It adjoins a BP service station on the city’s main arterial road.
It primarily occupies the corner of Pinjarra Road and Dower Street, with frontages of 45 metres and 70 metres respectively, but also features an additional 40 metre frontage on Parkview Street.
The title is currently subject to separate zonings, with 3,821square metres facing Pinjarra Road zoned Service Commercial, and a further 2,224 square metres on Parkview Street currently zoned Residential.
The City of Mandurah is considering a new Town Planning Scheme that would result in joint Commercial &amp; Residential Mixed-Use zoning, adding development options for the Parkview Street portion.
Mandurah, approximately 70 kilometres south of the Perth CBD, is Western Australia’s largest regional city, with its current population of 84,000 forecast to grow by 44% between now and 2036.
The development site is surrounded by additional amenities including parks, the Mandurah Aquatic and Recreation Centre and Mandurah Library.
CBRE’s Ben Younger and Jake Wallman have been appointed to manage the campaign, in conjunction with Peter Vetten from Raine &amp; Horne Mandurah, with offers due June 4.
“Development sites of this quality don’t come to market very often,” Mr Wallman said.
“We expect this opportunity to generate significant interest from developers attracted to the site’s outstanding location; Pinjarra Road generates huge exposure and the Mandurah Forum is directly next door.
“This is a unique site benefiting from three street frontages, while its zoning also allows for a broad range of development options.”
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Mandurah development site listed for sale

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Introduction
There has been much debate about the short-term economic and investment impact of coronavirus – on economic activity, unemployment, interest rates, house prices, shares, etc. However, the magnitude of the shock means it will have medium to longer-term implications as well. 
Of course, there is a danger in placing too much weight on current circumstances in assessing the future. Given this, we need to be a bit cautious, but here are 10 medium to longer-term impacts.
#1 Lower interest rates for even longer
The hit to economic activity has been huge, resulting in a lot of spare capacity that will take years to be used up. We don’t see global and Australian economic activity getting back to pre- coronavirus levels until late next year or 2022.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/5/25/covid%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
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Unemployment will take even longer to fall – it tends to go up via the lifts and down via the stairs. This will mean low inflation or deflationary pressure for the next three years at least. Which will mean central banks will be biased towards low interest rates for several years which will keep bond yields ultra-low.
Another way of looking at this is that given the hit to economic activity, interest rates would normally fall a lot further. In the GFC the Australian cash rate was cut by 4.25%. But because rates are already at or near zero, they can’t – so monetary easing is being achieved by quantitative easing. But an unconstrained cash rate for Australia would see it fall to around -3% not getting back to 0.25% until 2023 at the earliest.
In the meantime, it means several years of very low rates. It’s little wonder the RBA is targeting a 3-year bond yield of 0.25% and its low-cost funding rate for banks is also 0.25% for three years.
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Implications - Low rates mean very low returns from bank deposits and ultimately bonds but they make higher yielding shares and assets like property and infrastructure relatively attractive to investors once the hit to earnings and rents passes.
#2 A further blow to globalisation
Recent years have seen a backlash against globalisation evident in the rise of Trump, Brexit and a backlash in some countries against immigration. The coronavirus disruption has added to this. 
Worries about the supply of medical items have led to pressure for their domestic supply. This could move on to food security and looks to be morphing into a push to bring supply chains “back home”. Borders have been closed for health reasons and it is unclear when they will all reopen.
Implications - While the outcome may simply be a diversification in reliance away from China to other emerging countries, the risk is that this all leads to reduced growth potential for the emerging world generally. 
Longer term it could reduce productivity if supply chains are managed on other than economic grounds and could remove a key source of disinflationary pressure from the global economy.
#3 Another leg up in the US/China “cold war”
The trade war of 2018 and 2019 turned into a truce with the mini Phase One deal signed in January. However, with the coronavirus-driven shutdown, China is behind in its agreed purchases of US goods. 
What’s more, President Trump now faces a difficult task in winning the November presidential election - US presidents have not been re-elected when there is a recession and rising unemployment. This has been made worse by Trump’s inept handling of the crisis. This has left Trump keen to shift the blame over the virus and China is an easy target. He has already made some threats on this front and imposed some minor sanctions on China.
 At present Trump’s approval rating is around where it’s always been and is not weak enough for him to conclude that he has nothing to lose by taking big risks on this front (such as tearing up the trade deal and imposing more tariffs). But if his prospects start deteriorating dramatically, he may conclude that he has nothing to lose, particularly with 66% of Americans now having a negative view of China, up from 48% in 2018. The latter also suggests a Democrat president may also take a tough stance with China – although likely with more of a diplomatic focus. The point is that the US/China trade war risks ramping up.
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Implications – this could act as a negative for growth, work against multinationals and become a rising negative for shares. It also poses a threat to Australia but if Australia remains broadly neutral it may be minor (despite recent tensions around barley and beef) given that most Australian exports to China are for domestic use, not for reexport to the US.
#4 Bigger government and bigger public debt
The GFC brought an end to economic rationalism and support for smaller government and was associated with a leg up in public debt levels. Fading memories of the problems of too much government intervention added to this.
 The coronavirus crisis has likely added to support for bigger government intervention in economies and the tolerance of higher levels of public debt.
 Particularly given that it may have enhanced perceptions of inequality with well-paid white-collar workers being able to isolate and work at home whereas lower paid workers have been stood down or have to continue working in less safe conditions.
 Safety regulations to ensure distancing will also add to business costs, although hopefully this will just be for the short term if a medical solution to coronavirus is found.
Implications – bigger government and aggressive measures to address inequality could reduce productivity growth and hence economic growth. Although it’s worth noting that if the Australia adopts a productivity enhancing agenda it may buck this trend.
#5 Higher inflation with money printing
While it’s hard to see inflation becoming an issue in the next three years, the combination of rising public debt, money printing and more protectionism risks a longer term pick-up in inflation to say above 4%, particularly if central banks don’t reverse easy money quickly once spare capacity is used up.
Implications – a resurgence in inflation to high levels would be bad for productivity and negative for assets that benefitted from the “search for yield”. But it’s a much longer-term issue.
#6 Consumer and investor caution reinforced
The GFC led to a wariness and a degree of investor caution on the part of households. This has been evident in around 50% of Australians nominating bank deposits and paying down debt as the “wisest place” for their savings compared to around 30% before the GFC, and scepticism of shares. The coronavirus pandemic and its hit to incomes and job security has likely reinforced this.
Some even argue that the period of self- isolation will drive a rethink in terms of what’s important in life resulting in more mindful consumers focused on “do I really need it?” I am not so sure about the latter beyond the short term as people have short memories, but it is likely that household caution will remain, resulting in higher precautionary saving and more conservative investment strategies.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/5/25/covid%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:
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Implications - this will weigh on discretionary retailers, banks and wealth managers.
#7 Faster embrace of technology
Self-isolation has dramatically accelerated the move to a digital world. Workers, consumers, businesses, schools, universities, health professionals, young &amp; old have been forced to embrace new online ways of doing things. Many more have now embraced on-line retail, working from home &amp; virtual meetings.
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Implications – there are six big implications from this: • The challenge to traditional retailing has been ramped up dramatically putting more pressure on traditional retailers and shopping centre owners to improve their offering.
• Less office space demand – but this may be offset if more space per person is needed in the absence of a vaccine. • A shift from cities to suburbs/regions – as the shutdown shows that a “sea or tree change” is viable for many.
• This in turn may mean the beginning of the end for peak hour traffic congestion (although it could spike in the short term as people prefer to drive as long as Covid is still a risk). • Virtual meetings may see less demand for business travel.
• This is positive for IT tech stocks facilitating online activity.
#8 Bad for airlines
Which brings us to airlines. Less business demand for travel points to lasting damage. Some say the same may apply to tourists – but if a medical solution is found or the virus just dies out I suspect tourism will bounce back but based on the experience after 9/11 it may take a decade to fully recover.
Implications – airlines have already taken a big hit, but they are likely to be the slowest industry to recover.
#9 Another test for the Eurozone?
Slow progress towards providing support for Italy has led to renewed concerns that the Euro area may break up. Populist anti Euro leaders may get a boost from the crisis, particularly if there is a new wave of migrants from Libya. 
However, Europe seems to be doing what it always does – gradually heading towards a solution with Germany agreeing with France for the common issuance of bonds and shifting in favour of fiscal stimulus. 
The pressures to keep the Eurozone together (safety in numbers, a high degree of identification as Europeans, solid public support for the Euro, Germany benefitting from the EU and Germany’s huge exposure to Italian bonds via the ECB) remain far stronger than the forces pulling it apart.
Implications – I wouldn’t bet on the Euro breaking apart.
#10 Lower immigration
This is already a reality in Australia with travel bans and since immigration normally accounts for around 1 percentage point of population growth in Australia its absence knocks up to 1% off economic growth. The issue is how long immigration remains low. 
Australia would likely be a popular destination for migrants and students given its success in limiting coronavirus. And a rigorous testing/quarantine regime could allow both back sooner rather than later. That said I suspect while students will return faster, political pressures associated with higher unemployment will allow only a gradual recovery in immigration.
Implications – this is bad for home building &amp; home prices as the hit to immigration has cut underlying dwelling demand by 80,000pa. But I suspect it creeps back over the next five years.
Concluding comments
Several of these longer-term implications will constrain economic growth and hence potential investor returns – notably the reversal of globalisation, bigger government, consumer caution &amp; lower immigration. The faster embrace of technology will work in the other direction though to boost productivity and lower for longer interest rates are positive for growth assets.
Finally, a word of caution - anyone who got too negative for the long term in the last really major pandemic of 1918-19 might have missed out entirely on the “Roaring Twenties!” It’s much easier to think up negative things. 
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SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital
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10 medium to longer-term implications from the coronavirus shock: Shane Oliver 

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EXPERT OBSERVER 
As the public health response to supress the COVID-19 virus ramps up, so to does the economic fallout. Shutdowns and enforced spatial distancing are necessary to try to prevent hospital intensive care units becoming overwhelmed.
But businesses on the economic frontline – those shut or soon to be shut down by the public health restrictions – need immediate help to get through.
The necessary temporary hit to business incomes need not become a permanent hit to productive capacity. We should not risk a large swathe of shops, cafes, pubs, hotels, gyms, and hairdressers going to the wall.
Most of these frontline businesses have seen their income dry up overnight. Some have temporarily closed, others are <a href="https://www.goodfood.com.au/eat-out/news/what-melbournes-restaurants-are-doing-in-response-to-the-coronavirus-pandemic-20200320-h1moz4" target="_blank">finding creative ways to make some money</a> in online retail or takeaway services, for example, but most will replace only a fraction of their pre-crisis income.
<h2>Rent is the biggest barrier to survival</h2>
Staff layoffs, or more <a href="https://www.natlawreview.com/article/covid-19-australia-stand-down-what-does-it-all-mean" target="_blank">hopefully stand downs</a>, are the only option for most of these business. Even substantial wage subsidies won’t entice business owners to keep staff on when the business has shut its doors.
For businesses on the economic frontline, most of their variable costs such as wages and stock can be suspended during the shutdown. But their fixed costs – particularly rent – are substantial.
The average retailer pays almost A$12,000 in rent a month; the average gym, $10,000. Cafes and hairdressers are losing $3,000 to $4,000 each month in rent. 
For most exposed businesses, rent sits at less than 20% of operating costs under normal conditions, but while they hibernate through coronavirus, that figure will reach somewhere between 80% and 95%.
Some schemes have already been announced to help these businesses. The Commonwealth’s is the largest, and will pay small and medium businesses 100% of salary and wages withheld for tax purposes up to $100,000. For businesses to qualify for the full amount, they will need to withhold the same amount, so will need to be paying staff.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323472/original/file-20200327-132965-1bqrk6j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323472/original/file-20200327-132965-1bqrk6j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
 2019 data. Grattan Institute analysis of IBISWorld industry reports
State governments have announced partial relief of tax, rates and fees, and access to loans. This will help, but rent is the big unavoidable cost for most of the frontline businesses.
Exposed businesses will be losing thousands of dollars, or more, each month. Many will have some cash reserves, but for most a shutdown of three months or more will be very difficult to absorb.
A rent holiday, or at least a significant rent discount, would give these businesses a fighting chance at preventing a temporary shutdown becoming a permanent closure.
<h2>Market rates are close to zero</h2>
Most shopfronts can’t be put to other uses. That means the market price for retail, food, and accommodation services, and personal services shopfronts will be very close to zero during the shutdown.
Some landlords have done the right thing and given their tenants a rent holiday while these restrictions are in place.
This is smart: keeping their tenants in business will give these landlords the best chance of having a rented property when restrictions are lifted.
In normal circumstances, the market would work this through. But the danger here is it will happen too slowly. Some landlords refuse to accept renting out their premises for nothing.
In Melbourne, Chadstone retailers just wrote to Chadstone management asking for a rent holiday to “save our businesses”.
The response from management was <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/chadstone-retailers-push-for-three-months-rent-free-citing-bankruptcy-fears-20200325-p54dnu">no.</a>
That mindset could send many thousands of shops, cafes, pubs, restaurants, hairdressers, gyms, cinemas, and tourism operators to the wall.
As of last week, more than 70% of businesses in these industries had already been hit by the COVID-19 crisis. That figure is expected to rise beyond 90% in the coming weeks.
“Closures” was the most common word used by business owners surveyed by the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5676.0.55.003?OpenDocument" target="_blank">Bureau of Statistics</a> about the future effect of COVID-19.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323434/original/file-20200326-133007-uaqa55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323434/original/file-20200326-133007-uaqa55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5676.0.55.003" target="_blank">Source: ABS cat no. 5676.0.55.003 - Business Indicators, Business Impacts of COVID-19, March 2020</a>
Preventing landlords from evicting commercial tenants, or requiring landlords to defer the rents, won’t help – businesses will still liquidate if they know they will be lumbered with many months of rent to pay back down the track.
While a short-term income hit for landlords isn’t insignificant, the damage to the economy will be much greater if a swathe of small and medium-sized businesses are lost.
<h2>Acting now will reduce the damage</h2>
The owners of some properties that need rental holidays still have to make monthly mortgage payments to banks. But the banks are offering loan holidays they might be able to take advantage of.
If there are gaps in the loan holiday arrangements, governments should work with the banks to ensure landlords are covered. Alternatively, governments themselves could offer partial compensation for lost rent.
Prosper Australia has suggested a uniform <a href="https://www.prosper.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Memo-to-state-Governments_-Commercial-tennancy-intervention-for-Covid19-resilience.pdf" target="_blank">subsidy</a> that replaces 50% of lost commercial tenancy mortgage payments.
Right now, hundreds of thousands of businesses are crunching the numbers to see whether than can stay solvent. With rent on the expense side, those numbers won’t add up for long.
Every state and territory government ought to enact a rental holiday for the types of businesses on the frontline of this crisis. As the economic shockwave reverberates, state and territory ministers should have the power to add other vulnerable industries to that list.
The key is speed. For every day they wait, hundreds of businesses will fold.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/134890/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/danielle-wood-147710" target="_blank">Danielle Wood</a>, Program Director, Budget Policy and Institutional Reform, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168" target="_blank">Grattan Institute</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kate-griffiths-94706" target="_blank">Kate Griffiths</a>, Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168" target="_blank">Grattan Institute</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nathan-blane-934089" target="_blank">Nathan Blane</a>, Analyst, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168" target="_blank">Grattan Institute</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-case-for-a-rent-holiday-for-businesses-on-the-coronavirus-economic-frontline-134890" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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The case for a rent holiday for businesses on the coronavirus economic frontline

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Sydney-based boutique construction company, Roberts Pizzarotti, has officially topped out its Zurich Tower project at 118 Mount Street, North Sydney.
It is set to become the new headquarters for Zurich Financial Services Australia (Zurich).
The topping-out ceremony took place whilst taking several COVID-19 precautions into account.
It was held to commemorate the structural completion of level 29, the highest floor of the commercial building. 
As part of the event, a ceremonial ‘teddy bear’ magnolia tree signified the ancient ‘topping-out’ tradition.
To mark the occasion, and in line with the current limit of 10 people attending public gatherings, Roberts Pizzarotti’s CEO, Alison Mirams, joined nine other project stakeholders, including representatives of the building’s end owner, CBRE Global Investors; anchor tenant, Zurich; Mayor of North Sydney Council, Jilly Gibson; and the Hon. Rob Stokes, MP, Minister for Planning and Public Spaces. 
The ceremony was live streamed into the head office of Zurich in Switzerland.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/5/27/8_Zurich%20Tower%20Woman.jpg" alt="">
The FJMT-designed project, developed in conjunction with White &amp; Partners and Generate Property Group, will deliver 20,600sqm of PCA A-Grade office space.
As the anchor tenant, Zurich will enjoy a new purpose-built headquarters that includes a two-level podium, café, a sky terrace, three basement car parking levels and end-of-trip facilities. 
According to Ms Mirams, the completion of the 29-storey structure is ahead of schedule.     
“With construction commencing in May 2018, the fact that we are holding this event today is testament to the fact that the project has progressed well, despite all the recent challenges imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Ms Mirams.
“We are grateful for the outstanding support we’ve received from all of our subcontractors who worked with us through the COVID-19 situation. Their support is incredibly appreciated and should result in the project ultimately completing ahead of time, which is remarkable given the circumstances.
“It is gratifying to know that we’ve played our part in keeping 350 people employed directly or indirectly during the difficult employment situation resulting from the pandemic and 1,300 since the project’s inception,” she added.
Managing Director (Australia and New Zealand) of CBRE Global Investors, Chris Johnston said the organisation was proud to be working closely with both Roberts Pizzarotti and Zurich in their delivery of the iconic new building.
“Zurich Tower will make an important contribution to the growth and revitalisation of North Sydney,” said Mr Johnston. 
“North Sydney is one of Australia’s fastest-growing CBDs and as our client’s first acquisition in Australia, it represented an outstanding opportunity to invest, with both major infrastructure investments nearby and high demand for A-Grade office space outside the Sydney CBD.
The project team donated the ceremonial topping-out tree to North Sydney Council to be planted in one of the area’s local parks.
 
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Roberts Pizzarotti tops out Zurich Tower ahead of schedule, despite COVID-19

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A vacated Parramatta apartment has sold for $32,000 less than it did 2014.
Located at 103B/3 Broughton Street, the unit features one bedroom, one bathroom, a car space, and a balcony.
In May it sold for $483,000.
In 2014, however, it was secured for $515,000 from the developer Starryland.
The ground floor unit was on the market for 45 days.
The sale comes amid fears that a market decline, with HSBC estimating that Sydney prices could fall by 15 per cent if current economic conditions are extended.
Christopher Sahyoun and John Dahdah, from Belle Property Parramatta, had the listing.
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Starryland, Parramatta apartment sold for $32,000 less than 2014 price

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Very few cases of COVID-19 in Australia, with a handful of cases returning from overseas and headed to quarantine. 
 
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4cgHNMSh-oQ/Xsx2s06IRqI/AAAAAAAA16g/wDLDtpPvcfkunQPJ6ms16Hj1eSX8Ba3kQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1410"></div>
 <div>Recoveries continue to comfortably outstrip new cases.</div>
 <div>And, importantly, we're consistently seeing zero deaths reported on a daily basis, with few serious cases even going as far as ICU. </div>
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 <div>There are 5 cases remaining in ICU nationally, against the expanded capacity of 7,500 beds.</div>
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<div>Confidence returning</div>
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<div>Consumer confidence increased for an 8th consecutive week, up by +0.4 per cent to a reading of 92.7 points according to ANZ-Roy Morgan.</div>
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<div>Future financial conditions gained by +3.2 per cent and is approaching its long term average reading.</div>
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 <div>Source: ANZ-Roy Morgan</div>
 <div>Credit card usage data shows that Aussies are willing and able to spend again, but realistically travel restrictions needs to be eased before the economy can begin to fire up properly.</div>
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PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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Confidence up for 8th consecutive week: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank Governor provided a cautiously optimistic overview of the Aussie economy and a reasonably upbeat assessment of the Reserve Bank’s response to the pandemic crisis. In his opening statement to the Select Committee on COVID-19 today, he said “The evidence so far is that our mid-March package is working as expected and it is helping build the necessary bridge to the recovery.” Dr Lowe also stressed, “With the national health outcomes better than earlier feared, it is possible that the economic downturn will not be severe as earlier thought. Much depends on how quickly confidence can be restored.”
On interest rates: Governor Lowe remained cautious about the road to recovery and signalled that record low interest rates and unconventional monetary policy support would remain in place “for a few years.” He stressed, “But even as the recovery gets under way, there will still be a shadow cast by the pandemic. As a country, we will need to turn our minds as to how to move out of this shadow. A reform agenda that makes Australia a great place for businesses to expand, invest, innovate and hire people would certainly help. For its part, the RBA will maintain its expansionary settings until progress is being made towards full employment and we are confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2–3 per cent target band.”
On fiscal policy and JobKeeper: In the lengthy cross examination by Senators that followed, Dr. Lowe emphasised that, “It’s very important we don’t withdraw fiscal stimulus too early” and “fiscal policy will have to play a more important role” in the future. In reference to the government’s JobKeeper wage subsidy program, Dr. Lowe said that the Reserve Bank used a much more granular approach to its labour market forecasts and assumptions, “We started the forecasting process [in March] at the number of hours worked.” No assumptions on the number of people on JobKeeper or JobSeeker were considered. And he noted “JobKeeper has kept the connection between workers and firms. The recovery would be more difficult without JobKeeper.” He also expected to see some form of JobKeeper retained for specific industries, such as tourism with international borders unlikely to be re-opened before year end.
On the labour market: Dr. Lowe reiterated the importance of developments in the labour market: “My main focus has very much been on hours worked. I’m expecting to see a decline in May but not of the magnitude of April. The labour force has a lot of definitional issues.” The Governor had previously forecast that hours worked in the economy could fall by 20 per cent. But he now believes that the decline may be closer to 15 per cent and wants to see a “reasonable increase in hours worked in July and August.” And when prodded on his views on the fabled “full employment” number, Dr. Lowe proffered “In February I would have said 4.5 per cent. We were making progress. We know from previous sharp economic downturns that there is scarring in the labour market. It is quite possible that the estimate of full employment rises back up to 5 per cent.”
On monetary support for the economy and negative interest rates: The Governor also said that the Reserve Bank remains “focused on keeping funding costs low across the country” and “keeping interest rates low for bank borrowers. Central banks work through lending not spending.” When prodded on unconventional monetary policy Dr Lowe said, “I think negative interest rates are extraordinary unlikely here. The reason that people are sceptical is the cost to the financial system as it impairs profitability and the ability to lend. Negative interest rates don’t work.” If required, “we could purchase more bonds”, but “as things stand at the moment we don’t see need to do more” as the banks “have a lot of liquidity”. And “we’ve bought $50 billion worth of government bonds that will eventually mature.”
On reforms and infrastructure spending: "The economy has become less dynamic", said, Dr. Lowe and “a reform agenda to encourage investment, hiring would help…regulation is a barrier to entrepreneurship”. On infrastructure spending the Governor said, “Surely there are plenty of good infrastructure projects with a risk adjusted return for Australian society of better than 1.5 per cent.”
On government debt: “The level of public debt, while rising in Australia, is still low. There is strong demand for debt and the government has the capability to issue more debt.”
On the global economy: “There are a lot of domestic ramifications from a weak global economy.”
On recent economic data and forecasts: “We’re tracking between the baseline and the upside forecast scenarios. The recent data has been better than expected but I still a lot of challenges ahead. Even in an upside scenario it’s still a pretty depressing scenario. On policy moves he notes in hindsight and with reference to JobKeeper revisions “We would have done the same thing.”
APRA Chair remarks to the Board of International Banking Federation
APRA Chair Wayne Byers provided an online speech, “Going the distance: APRA’s approach to the COVID-19 fight.”
On pandemic preparation: “In Australia, we have had prudential guidance on pandemic planning for financial institutions in place for many years, and it has certainly proved its worth in recent months.”
On solvency pressures: “Measures to backstop liquidity have worked well and bought us time, but solvency pressures are mounting as credit risks come to the fore.”
On financial services disruption: “Thankfully, firms’ plans have stood up well and (along with a great deal of reactive work behind the scenes) the level of disruption to financial services has thus far been minimal.”
On financial system health: “We were fortunate that Australia went into 2020 with a banking system in generally good health. We had been working for some years to position our largest banks in the top quartile of international peers from a capital adequacy perspective, and fortuitously they had achieved that positioning before the crisis struck. On an internationally comparable basis, our largest banks are operating with CET1 ratios in the order of 15-16 per cent, and capital within the broader banking system is at a historical high – and about twice the level heading into the 2008 crisis. Funding and liquidity positions were also stronger, and asset quality was good, reflecting a lot of supervisory attention in recent years.”
On the road ahead: “This crisis will almost certainly precipitate enduring change in the way society operates. The idea that we’ll employ some temporary measures and then everything will ‘go back to normal’ is therefore a dangerously naïve one on which to base our decisions. Flexibility and agility will be important – we have a long battle ahead.”
On the regulatory and supervisory landscape: “First, financial and operational resilience – the core of prudential supervision – will be the primary area of focus in the foreseeable future… Second, the post-2008 reforms will be properly tested, and inevitably we will find areas they can be improved…. Third, transparency will become even more important.”
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The Reserve Bank Governor’s more optimistic tone was somewhat reassuring today. He seemed satisfied that the Bank had done all it could to help cushion the economic blow from the pandemic, but appears prepared to do more (buy more bonds) if the recovery fails to gather momentum as the economy is re-opened.
Of course, the Governor remains focused on developments in Australia’s labour market. The Bank’s assessment of the economy is predicated on the number of hours worked by Australians. The Governor emphasised that “What I’m focused on is people getting their jobs and income. Mortgage repayments are entirely manageable if you’ve got a job and income.” But "The shape and timing of that recovery depends not only on when restrictions are lifted, but also on the confidence that Australians have about their own health and their finances,"
Improving jobs data from the Bureau of Statistics, SEEK and Indeed – albeit off very low levels – provides unemployed Aussies with some hope and lifts confidence.
But a lot of uncertainty will remain, thus impacting consumer behaviour, until a potential virus vaccine is found. In the meantime, government policymakers would be well advised to retain the large fiscal and welfare support necessary for Australian workers and businesses to survive and operate through these challenging times until the economy finds a firmer footing.
RYAN FELMSAN Senior Economist, CommSec
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RBA says downturn less severe than first appeared: CommSec's Ryan Feldman

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Melbourne markets have held up better than most against the forces of Covid-19. The number of growth markets has dropped but it remains at solid levels – and prices have continued to perform well, in defiance of predictions (by the usual suspects) of a collapse.
The latest quarterly survey of sales activity by Hotspotting has found fewer growth suburbs than the previous survey, but still better than all other quarters since the Melbourne market peak in 2017.
This tells us that the Melbourne market has dropped in terms of sales activity, thanks to the restrictions imposed for the coronavirus, but remained stronger than during the post-boom downturn phase that extended throughout 2018 and early 2019.
Melbourne has done particularly well with price performance – with houses coming back strongly in the most recent quarter, but with apartments doing better than houses in annual terms.
In the past 12 months, two-thirds of Melbourne suburbs with apartment markets recorded growth in their median unit prices – and most of those growth suburbs increased their median prices by more than 5%.
House markets were less positive in annual terms, with only one-third recording price growth over the past months.
But the situation with house prices is starkly different when looking at the most recent data: 88% of Melbourne suburbs recorded growth in their median house prices in the most recent quarter.
This reflects the overall trend in the market. In the first half of 2019, Melbourne prices generally were falling, following the end of the previous boom and impacted also by the lead-up to the Federal Election.
Markets started to recover in the second half of 2019 and the early months of 2020 – so that most suburbs were recording price growth in their housing markets, but two-thirds still remained below the levels of 12 months earlier.
The data suggests Melbourne markets have been resilient price-wise in the Covid-19 period, despite the fall in sales activity which is reflected in our Winter 2020 survey of sales volumes.
In the circumstances, a result of 32 suburbs with growing sales activity is a solid performance and is better than all the quarterly surveys of 2018 and 2019.
The Mornington Peninsula has been the standout performer in our Winter 2020 survey: seven suburbs have continued to deliver growth in sales activity. Growth suburbs include Blairgowrie, Hastings, McCrae, Rye, Safety Beach, Sorrento and Tootgarook.
Quarterly sales in Safety Beach have been 33 46 45 47 54 and 64 over the past 18 months and the median house has risen 3% in the latest quarter while the median unit price is up 25% over the past 12 months.
In Hastings, quarterly sales have been 43 49 67 69 and 73 – and the median house price has increased 4.6% in the most recent quarter.
The next best LGA in terms of the number of suburbs with growing sales activity is the upmarket Glen Eira LGA, with three growth suburbs and two consistency markets. The growth suburbs are Carnegie, Caulfield North and Ormond.
There are seven municipalities with two growth suburbs each, including the Moreland LGA where both Brunswick East (63 79 80 83 and 86) and Brunswick West (52 60 63 76 and 83) are growth markets.
The Brunswick West unit market has been particularly strong, with notable growth in its median price both for the most recent quarter and over the past 12 months (up 18%).
This Winter 2020 survey has identified 11 suburbs as declining markets – a surprisingly small number given the Covid-19 circumstances – and three danger markets.
The locations we have ranked as danger markets are the Melbourne CBD, Southbank and Docklands, all inner-city apartments markets where sales activity has dropped markedly at a time when vacancy rates have spiked because of the Covid-19 impacts.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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Melbourne market holding up better than most during Covid-19: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Off-the-plan buyers are understandably looking past the Coronavirus crisis.
The continued construction at apartment project work sites will bring on their completion close to their intended schedules.
It is one of the telling achievements of this time of pandemic.
Off the plan buyer interest continues too, abeit at reduced levels.
But the use of virtual property technology has been key in off-the-plan projects enabling prospective buyers to see what their acquisition will provide.
With online tools like e-contracts, sales are being done.
Every day sales agents are also seeing potential buyers in their display suites, but digital tools are assisting in a big way.
The sector’s embrace of digital tools, such as virtual inspections, amazing graphics and 3D, means buyers are able to see past the current uncertainty and make long-term decisions.
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Customisation is an important offering these days.
Not only can buyers see what they are set to get upfront, they can also make selective changes to the floor plans so the property better suits their needs.
Some buyers may pick up two apartments and amalgamate them into a large three-bedroom apartment.
Others may turn a two-bedroom unit into a large one-bedroom apartment.
Most developers can offer buyers choices of finishes and a variety of upgrades.
A serious foodie might want the dream kitchen with the best appliances, stone bench tops and a pantry.
An asthmatic would probably opt for a timber or stone floor rather than carpet installation.
The current isolation will likely have long-lasting impact on the apartment design. Maybe it will see the installation of better functioning balconies. Some that are bigger, others that offer a Juliet-style garden patio.
Separate rooms being proposed rather than just open plan.
A real study - collaquallily known as Zoom rooms - not just a study nook in the hallway to provide picture-perfect, acoustically sound video conferencing opportunities.
Developers in their own isolation will be rethinking the ideal apartment interior.
Expect more inner city apartments that allow pets as they provide joy for their owners who can't all seek out a sea or tree change.
Trendy architects are releasing that the apartment blocks of the 1920s got it right.  
When buying off the plan, buyers must rely on the reputation, honesty and goodwill of the developer which is why it's crucial to research the developer, their financial strength and capacity to deliver rectification after issues arises.
The economy ahead is going to remain challenging for the property industry, with the risk of buying in a poor growth markets, so buyers need to be prepared to withstand bumps along the way.
Especially since many who purchased off-the-plan a few years ago are now going to have issues, perhaps given loss of income, along with the prospect of valuations coming in on completion at below contract price.
Ofcourse the apartment construction industry had hopes of seeing restored buyer confidence after the startling exposures during 2019 of neglectful building practices with the cracking at the Opal Tower high-rise just the tip of the industry poor practice.
Apartment markets across Sydney and NSW had reached new heights last year with record residential prices highlighted by a $100 million penthouse sale at Barangaroo.
While the pullback by buyers has taken momentum out of the market, and we could see some price falls amid a weakened rental market, the web traffic suggests buyer interest remains strong.
This article first appeared in The Daily Telegraph 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Off-the-plan buyers looking past Coronavirus crisis

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Sydney’s fast pace population growth is set to come to an abrupt halt. The recent closing of borders and after the restrictions that will follow the COVID-19 pandemic will stop most of it.
For the past half century demand for housing and the accompanying property price growth has been driven in part by population growth.
The latest government estimates suggest the key driver is going to fall sharply over the next year or so.
The disruption will show up in many ways.
Short term tourists have disappeared, but will return.
The weakness in short-term tourist arrivals will hit the domestic tourism industry, though will likely be offset in part by more Australians travelling at home when domestic travel restrictions are lifted in stage two.
Large numbers of temporary residents from overseas have departed, but only a trickle will return any time soon. Ditto temporary working visas.
The fall in numbers of international students on visas will likely not see a return to recent levels anytime over the coming year.
The downward pressure on rental price growth that landlords have seen in recent weeks will likely be extended unless Australia’s sustained comparative advantage as an education and tourism destination returns quickly.
The Government estimates long-term migration arrivals could fall by around 300,000 over the next 18 months, with a drop of 72,000 in the first half of this calendar year and another 204,000 in the 2020/21 financial year.
According to UBS Australia's population growth is forecast to slow to just 0.5 percent in 2020.
This is the slowest pace since 1916, according to economists.
The recent average has been between 1.5 percent to 2 percent per year.
Scott Haslem at Cretonne Wealth Management says at the positive end a temporary pullback in migration flows could provide some time for infrastructure works to "catch up" over the next 18 months.
But for residential housing, the weakness in migration is a significant headwind.
UBS estimates there will be a fall in underlying annual housing demand from around 200,000 to only around 130,000 in the near term - before recovering towards 190,000 by the end of 2022.
This drop in dwelling commencements will mean fewer tradies in work which spells wider problems for the economy.
Construction has continued during the shutdown so employment has not yet been impacted like many other industries.
Lower population growth, from fewer arrivals from overseas, will be accompanied by an emerging drop in the nation's fertility rate currently averaging 1.7 children per couple.
Births falling by 2 per cent to 91,376 in NSW last year.
We are set to enter an ongoing debate especially on the role of temporary migration.
Temporary migration is certain to look different over the next few years than it has over past few. 
That’s its purpose – to adapt to changing circumstances, Monash academic Gabriela D'Souza recently noted.
But the Investec fund manager Graeme Katz recently warned pushing back against immigration as a “seriously short sighted view”.
“Our country needs to send a signal that we’re open for people, we’re open for capital, and we’re open for business, and provide the productive environment for job creation and growth,” he said.
“Only growth will provide the environment for job security, which in turn creates a confidence of consumers to spend and the multiplier flow on ... will provide a tax base to support a well-balanced economy and society,” he said.
This article first appeared in The Daily Telegraph
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