<p><a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/far-east-consortium">Far East Consortium</a>’s 640 Bourke Street stands as a testament to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developments/melbourne-vic-3000">Melbourne</a>’s ability to bridge its storied past with a bold vision for the future.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Rising above the heritage-listed Eliza Tinsley building, the development reflects a broader shift toward adaptive reuse in the city, where historical assets are retained and reinterpreted as part of new residential development.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/640-bourke-street-melbourne-640-bourke-street-melbourne-vic-3000">640 Bourke Street</a> incorporates the Eliza Tinsley building as its foundation, housing a grand gallery and lobby space that serve as both a functional and symbolic centrepiece. The heritage façade informs the tower’s design, creating a connection between Melbourne’s past and its contemporary skyline.</p>

<p>"It's a significant asset and wants to be celebrated and experienced by all residents every single time they go in and out of the building," Rothelowman Principal Stuart Marsland said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=365684]</p>

<p>Above this historic base, the 68-storey tower will deliver just over 600 residences, a notable reduction from earlier schemes, reflecting a deliberate move toward larger-format apartments and a stronger owner-occupier focus.</p>

<p>Unlike traditional CBD developments that prioritised investor stock, 640 Bourke Street has been repositioned to respond to changing buyer expectations.</p>

<p>"The discussion was all around making 640 Bourke Street the best residence to live in, to be much more focused on the people in the building rather than people looking at the building," Marsland explained.&nbsp;</p>

<p>This shift is evident in the development’s interiors, which emphasise practical luxury with spacious layouts, high ceilings, and floor-to-ceiling windows framing sweeping views of Melbourne and Port Phillip Bay.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“What it's meant for 640 Bourke is we've actually reduced the number of apartments. We've increased the overall size of the apartments. We don't have any studios in here, and what that does for a project is it elevates it," Lauren Sheldon, Far East Consortium’s Director of Sales and Marketing, said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=365687]</p>

<p>Rothelowman Associate Jun Chang added, "We were given the opportunity to be more generous. The apartments became bigger and squarer than any other apartments which had been designed in the CBD before that."&nbsp;</p>

<p>Amenities spanning more than 3,000 sqm across multiple levels further reinforce this focus on resident experience. These include a pool, gym, co-working areas, and a range of hospitality-inspired spaces such as a whisky lounge, library, and private dining rooms, many drawing reference from traditional bathhouses and Melbourne’s laneway culture.</p>

<p>"We wanted to make both the pool and the gym area to be absolutely destinational, and when you traverse across to these spaces, there is a gentle familiarity to the beautiful notions of the hammams and the Roman baths, a gentle nod to history," Chang noted.</p>

<p>At street level, the project contributes to the ongoing transformation of the western CBD, with upgrades to Langs Lane and the introduction of retail, hospitality, and gallery spaces designed to activate the precinct and strengthen its connection to the surrounding city fabric.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=365689]</p>

<p>The location places residents within walking distance of Southern Cross Station, Flagstaff Gardens, Queen Victoria Market, and the Docklands waterfront, positioning the development within a rapidly evolving inner-city neighbourhood.</p>

<p>"We believe it's the best site left in the city of Melbourne," Craig Williams, Executive Director at Far East Consortium, said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>640 Bourke Street is Far East Consortium’s 14th building in Melbourne’s western CBD.</p>

<p>"A very elegant designed building. It's going to be a Melbourne statement for many, many years to come."</p>

<p>One-bedroom apartments are priced from around $640,000, with 640 Bourke Street targeting completion in 2029.</p>

<p><em>Renders shown are Artist's Impressions correct as of May 2026.</em></p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=509]</p>


Joel Robinson

Heritage-led design anchors Far East Consortium’s 640 Bourke St, Melbourne

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD Group</a> has set a new residential price record in Queensland with the $30 million sale of the penthouse at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/one-burleigh-88-the-esplanade-burleigh-heads-qld-4220">ONE Burleigh</a> development in Burleigh Heads.</p>

<p>The sale equates to around $37,500 per sqm.</p>

<p>The two-level, 800 sqm penthouse, featuring five bedrooms, five bathrooms, five car spaces, and a private infinity pool overlooking the Pacific Ocean, was acquired by a Gold Coast-based entrepreneur, highlighting continued demand for ultra-premium beachfront product.</p>

<p>Selling agent Freddie Tehle of PRD Burleigh Heads said the result reflects tightening supply of high-quality, large-format apartments in Burleigh.</p>

<p>“There’s very limited opportunity to secure this level of scale and absolute beachfront position in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/burleigh-heads-qld-4220">Burleigh Heads</a>,” Tehle said.</p>

<p>“Buyers are increasingly seeking apartments that genuinely replace a standalone home, and this penthouse delivers that with its size, privacy, and direct ocean frontage.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=146358 project_image_fid=323057]</p>

<p>The sale comes as construction progresses on ONE Burleigh, a boutique development of 17 full-floor residences at 88 The Esplanade, scheduled for completion in early 2027.</p>

<p>Developed by MAYD Group and designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/mas-architecture-studio">MAS Architecture</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/sici-design">Sici Design</a>, the project has been positioned as a collection of house-sized beachfront apartments, each occupying an entire floor with around 381 sqm of internal and external living space.</p>

<p>When construction commenced, MAYD director Todd Mould pointed to the long-term resilience of premium coastal real estate as a key driver behind the project.</p>

<p>“Real estate, particularly at the premium end, remains one of the most resilient and proven long-term investment avenues,” Mould said.</p>

<p>“Our ambition is that anyone who buys a MAYD-built product can genuinely feel the care, craftsmanship and commitment we bring to every detail.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=146358 project_image_fid=323055]</p>

<p>Each residence has been configured with four bedrooms, multiple living zones, a private office, and expansive ocean-facing terraces. Interiors draw on a restrained material palette, including travertine stone, timber joinery, and integrated premium appliances.</p>

<p>Interior designer Sici Design said the approach was to reflect the project’s coastal setting through both materiality and spatial planning.</p>

<p>“ONE Burleigh is our vision of luxury living, designed to bring the essence of Burleigh Heads' vibrant coastal beauty into an unparalleled residential experience.”</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a suite of wellness-focused amenities, including pools, sauna facilities, and dedicated relaxation spaces, reflecting a broader shift toward lifestyle-driven apartment design on the Gold Coast.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=146358 project_image_fid=323052]</p>

<p>The project occupies a southern Esplanade site with uninterrupted beachfront frontage, an increasingly rare offering in Burleigh Heads, free from the Norfolk Pines that line much of the coastline and often limit direct ocean outlook.</p>

<p>Mould said the design intent was to balance that outlook with a sense of retreat.</p>

<p>“Living at ONE Burleigh is about how your day naturally unfolds, morning light across the ocean, coffee on the balcony, and being in Burleigh but elevated above the noise.”</p>

<p>The result further reinforces Burleigh Heads’ emergence as one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held and supply-constrained beachfront markets, where boutique, owner-occupier-focused developments are increasingly setting new price benchmarks.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=146358]</p>


MAYD Group sets Queensland record with $30 million penthouse sale at ONE Burleigh in Burleigh Heads

<p>Apartment developers in the Gold Coast are finding new, creative ways to differentiate themselves from competing projects, as new supply starts to flow through up and down the Coast.</p>

<p>Developer BIG Projects brought in the renowned Sydney-based design studio YSG Studio to craft the interiors for The Frederick, BIG Projects' new Mermaid Beach project and YSG Studio's first move into the multi-residential development space.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5346]</p>

<p>It was a strategic move for BIG Projects to bring in a Sydney eye to the development.</p>

<p>“Our role is to give our design partners the space and freedom to explore,” says Matt Barrett, Director of BIG Projects.</p>

<p>“We wanted YSG Studio to capture the essence of Nobby’s, to design a building that embraces life, light and connection, while creating a genuine sense of place.”</p>

<p>There are only 39 apartments in The Frederick, including a striking beach house, just 100 metres from the booming Nobby Beach precinct.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5347]</p>

<p>Yasmine Ghoniem, Director of YSG Studio, says their vision&nbsp;for The Frederick "reinvents coastal living."</p>

<p>“Nobby’s has such an iconic energy, it’s one of those rare pockets of the Gold Coast where the community, the beach, and the streets all feel connected,” Ghoniem says.</p>

<p>"Responding to the neighbouring coastline, soothing curves add a relaxing regional overlay, while unique detailing really sets it apart. It’s a place that feels lived in from the moment you step inside.”</p>

<p data-end="236" data-start="64">A standout feature of The Frederick is its rooftop terrace, an uncommon inclusion for a boutique, low-rise building, where amenity is typically concentrated at ground level.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5360]</p>

<p data-end="523" data-start="308">Positioned to capture panoramic views from the hinterland to the ocean, the rooftop has been designed as a series of intimate zones. It includes a pool, sauna, sun decks, workspaces and dedicated entertaining areas.</p>

<p data-end="670" data-start="525">“The rooftop was conceived as a collection of spaces where residents can unwind and connect, an extension of the Nobby’s lifestyle,” Barrett says.</p>

<p data-end="760" data-start="672">Architecture for the project was led by Plus Studio, with landscape design by LDG Landscape Architecture.</p>

<p data-end="951" data-start="762">SRQ Projects Director Nick Clydsdale, who is handling sales at The Frederick, says the majority of enquiry is coming from South East QLD and Victorian buyers who have been actively searching between Broadbeach and Mermaid Beach for some time.</p>

<p data-end="951" data-start="762">"They’ve reviewed a number of projects, however this one has stood out for its unique detailing and compelling design,"&nbsp;Clydsdale says.</p>

<p data-end="951" data-start="762">Site demolition is slated for this month, with construction commencing soon after. BIG Projects is targeting a late 2027 completion.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=110588]</p>


Sydney’s YSG Studio makes Gold Coast multi-residential debut with BIG Projects at The Frederick

<p>Melbourne-based property developer ALTA Property has this week achieved planning approval for the adaptive re-use of a former commercial tower into a $200 million, 169-apartment project at 10 Queens Road, one of the last developable sites along the Albert Park Lake-fronting boulevard.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Set within one of Melbourne’s most sought-after precincts and designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser and Partners</a>, the illustrious building will offer unparalleled views across Albert Park Lake, Port Phillip Bay and Melbourne CBD.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The mix of 1, 2 and 3-bedroom residences will be complemented by a ground-floor amenity featuring private dining, a lounge bar, gym and wellness spaces, co-working, outdoor communal gardens, and retail.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The 17-storey building is a masterclass in adaptive re-use, with the existing commercial building’s façade, shell and internal structure to be retained, before high-end residences are built from the ground up in a newly built Albert Park facing addition to the building.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sitting atop the building will be two 320+sqm penthouses with private rooftop terraces, which are expected to be priced between $9 - $11 million.&nbsp;</p>

<p><img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa11211b-5581-43f9-940c-fc84d30a0e61" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/C_04.png?VersionId=Yhf5p_1EgGDu_zOIMFgvA8Ug8j3sTFQs" /></p>

<p>Architecturally, the building will feature a curved, geometric façade that celebrates and elevates the existing structure, with warm, muted tones which were selected to extend the materiality of the existing building rather than contrast it.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors will bring together three metre high ceilings with waffle concrete in some spaces, natural timber, granite and Australian materials, culminating in crafted, generous and considered spaces that are defined by authenticity.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The adaptive re-use means that the Queens Road project will be a sustainability led, high-quality finished product, with a 62% saving in carbon emissions by re-using the existing structure rather than knocking it down and rebuilding.&nbsp;</p>

<p>ALTA Property was launched by Nigel Givoni in 2023, bringing over 25 years of experience in multi level residential delivery.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Melbourne’s property market growth is currently led by apartments. According to RPM VIC Apartments &amp; Townhomes Market Report (April 2026), units are outpacing houses, especially in the middle ring suburbs where median prices hit $757,500 – a four-year high that represents 2.9 percent growth quarter-on-quarter.&nbsp;</p>

<p><img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="647e13d7-b4bc-433a-9bc9-fe3c3dd4f2ec" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/V_06.png?VersionId=ou4NUCWUgA3NAy.6CQJlEdKX50j3dOk6" /></p>

<p>For ALTA Property Founder Nigel Givoni, this performance speaks to the confidence he has in the Melbourne market.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Queens Road represents a rare opportunity to continue to shape our presence in the Melbourne market.,"&nbsp;Givoni says.</p>

<p>"With a considered project team and a premier site along one of the city’s most sought-after boulevards, we look forward to contributing to the fabric of this established address.</p>

<p>“Other Australian markets are getting a lot of attention, but I believe the depth of value in Melbourne is being overlooked. The fundamentals are strong, population growth is steady and, based on our preliminary conversations with a leading builder, construction costs are beginning to normalise, creating further opportunity."</p>

<p>Givoni says the project is a&nbsp;highly considered example of adaptive re-use, delivering quality, high-end residences, premium hotel-inspired amenities and an architecturally striking façade, all achieved without the need to remove the existing structure.</p>

<p>"We are really looking forward to the market’s response,” he said.&nbsp;</p>


ALTA Property to deliver $200 million Queens Road apartment tower

<p>Construction is set to begin at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/orchard-mews-glen-iris-18-scott-grove-glen-iris-vic-3146">Orchard Mews</a> in Glen Iris, with&nbsp;PC Whitehall &amp; Sons&nbsp;now appointed as the townhome development moves into its next phase.</p>

<p>The development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/montcoeur">MontCoeur</a>,&nbsp;located at 18 Scott Grove, is now around 30 per cent sold, with completion targeted for late-2027.</p>

<p>Orchard Mews comprises a curated collection of three- and four-bedroom customisable townhomes, positioned within one of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>’ more tightly held residential streets. The low-density project has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo</a>, bringing together a team known for high-end residential projects across Melbourne.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366285]</p>

<p>The development is defined by its focus on flexible living and long-term usability. Each residence includes multiple living zones and a customisable multipurpose room, allowing buyers to tailor spaces to suit changing needs, whether as a home office, additional bedroom, wellness area or entertainment space.</p>

<p>Architecturally, the townhomes emphasise natural light and spatial volume, with dual-aspect layouts and double-height living areas incorporated into the design. Interiors feature natural stone benchtops, premium appliances, and a neutral material palette intended to support everyday functionality rather than statement-driven finishes.</p>

<p>All residences are all-electric and include private lifts and secure double garages, reflecting a broader shift toward sustainability and future-focused housing in Melbourne’s established suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366277]</p>

<p>Outdoor connections are also central to the offering, with a mix of private courtyards and terraces extending internal living spaces and integrating with the landscaped surrounds.</p>

<p>The Scott Grove address places Orchard Mews within close proximity to some of Melbourne’s key lifestyle and education amenities, including Scotch College, Sacré Cœur, Cabrini Hospital and the retail hub of Chadstone. Public transport access is also nearby, with trams and Gardiner Station providing connectivity to the CBD and surrounding suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150128]</p>


Construction to commence at luxury Glen Iris townhome project, Orchard Mews

<p>Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.</p>

<p>They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.</p>

<p>They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.</p>

<p>Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor</p>

<p>Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" /></p>

<p>Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>​</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.</p>

<p>With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.</p>


Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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<p>Property investors will never let the facts get in the way of an entrenched attitude. </p>
<p>Clinging to cherished beliefs, most of them based on myth and misinformation, is the hallmark of the typical Aussie wannabe investor - and the reason why most of them get ordinary results from buying at the wrong time in the wrong place.</p>
<p>Against that background, I find that the hardest sell in Australian real estate is trying to convince people that Adelaide is not only worth considering, but is one of the very best locations to target for a combination of affordability, value for money, good yields and potential for capital growth. And that regional South Australia has been one of the nation’s best performers in recent times. </p>
<p>I will, nevertheless, persist.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">The standout consistency of Adelaide real estate is demonstrated by our latest (Winter 2020) survey of sales activity and prices. The city’s resistance to the forces of Covid-19 is shown by the number of suburbs with sales growth and the number with annual uplift in their median prices.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">The Winter 2020 survey has identified 51 Adelaide suburbs with rising sales activity. This compares with just 32 in the much larger city of Melbourne.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">In terms of price performance, almost two-thirds of Adelaide suburbs have recorded annual growth in their median house prices, almost identical to the result three months ago in our Autumn 2020 survey. Once again, Adelaide is delivering on its reputation for steadiness.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Here’s what I said about Adelaide in the Price Predictor Index published nine months ago: “Adelaide is the standout market in capital city Australia. Its consistency of sales performance is remarkable and two-thirds of its suburbs have had price growth in the past year, led by double-digit rises in top-end markets.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">“Adelaide is undoubtedly Australia’s most under-rated market. It keeps delivering good sales activity and above-average results on house prices.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">“In the five years Hotspotting has been conducting quarterly surveys of sales activity and price trends, Adelaide has never delivered a poor result. Most cities have had peaks and troughs in that time, but Adelaide just keeps on producing steady markets with consistent demand.”</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Nothing has changed, despite the negative forces of Covid-19. Adelaide and South Australia have handled the pandemic better, in health terms, than any other state and its economy has showed resilience. This has been reflected in its real estate markets.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">One of the strengths of the Adelaide market is that the prosperity is widely spread across the metropolitan area. There are 10 Local Government Areas with three or more suburbs with upwardly-mobile markets.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">While sources such as CoreLogic and SQM Research often report annual growth of only 1-2% in Adelaide house prices, these generalised figures disguise individual areas which have done better. Our suburb-by-suburb analysis shows that over 60% of Adelaide suburbs have median house prices higher than a year ago. </p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Regional South Australia is the most surprising market in the nation. There is uplift in sales activity in most locations across the state and the vast majority of regional towns have recorded price growth in the past 12 months, with most up by more than 5%.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">This market has been a consistently strong performer in recent years but is unlikely to ever receive any media recognition for it.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">In the Spring 2019 edition of <em>The Price Predictor Index</em> nine months ago, we commented: “It would surprise many property observers to learn that three-quarters of the towns in Regional South Australia have recorded price growth in the past 12 months, including some which have achieved double-digit increases.”</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">In the Autumn 2020 edition three months ago we said: “Regional SA continues to perform, with significant increases in median house prices in many locations. And we now have steady upward trends in sales activity in areas that have not previously featured …”</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">And, notwithstanding the impacts of the pandemic period, Regional SA continues to deliver strong results. Of the 33 locations ranked in our survey, 17 are rated as rising markets, six are ranked as consistency markets and the other 10 are plateau markets.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Whyalla is continuing its recovery; Mount Gambier continues to be a growth market; and the Victor Harbor area has enhanced its status as a solid performer.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">There has been a big revival in prices in Whyalla, which was previously mired in a significant downturn. In the past 12 months, growth in median prices has included 29% in Whyalla, 31% in both Whyalla Stuart and Whyalla Jenkins, 20% in Whyalla Playford and 12% in Whyalla Norrie.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">To put this into perspective, these locations are rising from a very low base. Whyalla Stuart’s median house price has increased 31% in 12 months but remains at just $130,000. Whyalla Norrie’s median house price is just $145,000, despite an annual rise of 12%.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, prices are heading in the right direction, on the back of improved sales activity. </p>
<p>Other locations to record good median price growth over the past 12 months include Tanunda (12%), Naracoorte (10%), Kapunda (11%), Millicent (10%) and Mannum (10%). In the busy markets of the Alexandrina LGA, Middleton is up 10% and Hindmarsh Island has risen 16%.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Alexandrina, south-east of Adelaide, continues to be the individual star in terms of sales activity. Most of the main centres in this municipality – Goolwa, Goolwa South, Hindmarsh Island, Middleton and Strathalbyn – have been classified as rising markets in our latest survey.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">The Victor Harbor area is the other standout. This LGA often features in our reports as the steadiest of performers. In this new survey, Hayborough, McCracken, Victor Harbor and Port Elliot are all classified as rising markets. Prices are rising moderately in this market, generally around 3-5% in the past year. </p>
<p>T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Adelaide one of the best real estate performers in Australia: Hotspotting’s Terry Ryder

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<p class="legacy">GUEST OBSAERVATION</p>
<p>Australian economists narrowly back a wage freeze in the minimum wage case now before the <a href="https://www.fwc.gov.au/awards-agreements/minimum-wages-conditions/annual-wage-reviews/annual-wage-review-2019-20#field-content-0-heading">Fair Work Commission</a>, a freeze that could flow through to millions of Australians on awards and affect the wages of millions more through the enterprise bargaining process.</p>
<p>The annual case is in its final stages after having begun before the coronavirus crisis and been extended to take account of its implications.</p>
<p>In its submission, the Australian government called for a “<a href="https://www.fwc.gov.au/documents/wage-reviews/2019-20/submissions/ausgov-sub-awr1920.pdf">cautious approach</a>”, prioritising the need to keep Australians in jobs and maintain the viability of businesses.</p>
<p>The minimum wage was last frozen in <a href="https://www.fwc.gov.au/documents/sites/afpc2009wagereview/documents/afpc2009wsd2.pdf">2009</a> amid concern about unemployment during the global financial crisis.</p>
<p>The Economic Society of Australia and The Conversation polled 42 of Australia’s leading economists in the fields of microeconomics, macroeconomics, economic modelling and public policy.</p>
<p>Among them were former and current government advisers, a former and current member of the Reserve Bank board, and a former head of the Australian Fair Pay Commission.</p>
<p>Each was asked whether they agreed, disagreed, or strongly agreed or strongly disagreed with this proposition:</p>
<p><em>A freeze in the minimum wage will support Australia’s economic recovery</em></p>
<p>Each was asked to rate the confidence they had in their opinion, and to provide reasons, which are published in full in The Conversation.</p>
<p>Half of those surveyed – 21 out of 42 – backed the proposition, seven of them “strongly”.</p>
<p>Nineteen disagreed, seven strongly. Two were undecided.</p>
<p><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/339992/original/file-20200605-176538-1b2nkb2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></p>
<p><span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></p>
<p>The minimum adult wage is <a href="https://www.fwc.gov.au/awards-and-agreements/minimum-wages-conditions/national-minimum-wage-orders">A$19.49 per hour</a>.</p>
<p>There was agreement among most of those surveyed that, in normal times, normal increases in the minimum wage have little impact on employment – a view backed by <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2018/sep/the-effect-of-minimum-wage-increases-on-wages-hours-worked-and-job-loss">Australian</a> and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-8543.2009.00723.x">international</a> research.</p>
<p>But several of those surveyed pointed out that these are not normal times.</p>
<p><strong>Bad times for employers…</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gigi-foster-194/articles">Gigi Foster</a> said many businesses were operating closer to the margin of profitability than ever before, and were likely to stay that way for many months.</p>
<p><a href="https://esacentral.org.au/news/16047/rana-roy/?type_fr=369">Rana Roy</a> quoted one the pioneers of modern economics, <a href="https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/bios/Robinson">Joan Robinson</a>, as observing in 1962 that the misery of being exploited by capitalists was “nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all”.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-freebairn-90/articles">John Freebairn</a> argued that a freeze of labour costs, together with very low expected inflation, could provide a key element of certainty in the uncertain world facing households, businesses and governments.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/robert-breunig-167291/articles">Robert Breunig</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tony-makin-140508/articles">Tony Makin</a> suggested that with prices stable or possibly falling, a freeze in the minimum wage might cost workers little or nothing in terms of purchasing power.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/guay-lim-103128/articles">Guay Lim</a> and several others said if the government wanted the economic stimulus that would come from an increase in the minimum wage, it had other ways of bringing it about without making conditions more difficult for employers.</p>
<p><strong>…and bad times for workers</strong></p>
<p>Those supporting an increase saw it as a way to bolster consumer confidence and redress unusually weak worker bargaining power.</p>
<p>Wage growth before the coronavirus hit was historically low at <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6345.0">close to 2%</a>, an outcome so weak for so long that in <a href="https://www.fwc.gov.au/documents/wage-reviews/2018-19/decisions/2019fwcfb3501.pdf">2018</a> and <a href="https://www.fwc.gov.au/documents/sites/wagereview2018/decisions/2018fwcfb3500-summary.pdf">2019</a> the Commission awarded much bigger increases in the minimum wage, arguing employers could afford them.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-morley-9918/articles">James Morley</a> was concerned that a freeze in the minimum wage would “mostly just lock in” inflation expectations that were already too low.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.appliedeconomics.com.au/people/">Peter Abelson</a> said labour productivity rose with respect for workers and fell with disrespect. A wage freeze would disrespect workers.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/saul-eslake-665/articles">Saul Eslake</a> proposed a middle way, deferring a decision rather than granting no increase. He said the increase that was eventually granted should do no more than keep pace with inflation.</p>
<p>The economists were asked to rate their confidence in their responses on a scale of 1 to 10.</p>
<p>Unweighted for confidence, 45.3% of those surveyed opposed a wage freeze. When weighted for (relatively weak) confidence, opposition fell to 43.5%.</p>
<p><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/339993/original/file-20200605-176546-1u10d49.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""><span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></p>
<p>Unweighted for confidence, half of those surveyed supported the proposition that a freeze in the minimum wage would assist Australia’s economic recovery.</p>
<p><strong>Weighted for confidence, support grew to 51.6%</strong></p>
<p>The Fair Work Commission is required to complete its review by the <a href="https://www.fwc.gov.au/documents/wage-reviews/2019-20/decisions/2020fwcfb1804.docx">end of this month</a>.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140163/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709">Peter Martin</a>, Visiting Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/economists-back-wage-freeze-21-19-in-new-economic-society-conversation-survey-140163">original article</a>.</em></p>
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Australian economists narrowly backing wage freeze

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<p><strong>EXPERT OBSERVATION</strong></p>
<p>A housing boom that lasted from the mid-1980s with only minor interruptions has added to rising income inequality in Australia. Yet an impending housing market bust, triggered by the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting spike in unemployment, will not restore greater equality. On the contrary, recent history shows housing busts can worsen inequality.</p>
<p>Those who benefit most from a boom are not those who pay the price when it busts. And those harmed by the boom often become even more vulnerable during the bust.</p>
<p>Our analysis highlights the risks for people who bought their first home at the peak of the boom. We estimate 24,000 households are at very high risk because they took out large loans that might soon exceed their home value and also work in sectors with high job losses. Another 135,200 are at high risk and 121,000 are at moderate risk.</p>
<p><strong>Coronavirus has set up a housing bust</strong></p>
<p>Experts have long cited an upsurge in unemployment as the main threat to house price growth. This risk became reality with the coronavirus pandemic. Over the seven weeks from mid-March to early May, jobs fell by 7.3%.</p>
<p>Unless employment rapidly recovers, the housing market is facing a major downturn. In one worst-case scenario released by the Commonwealth Bank, house prices could fall by up to 32%  over the next two years.</p>
<p><strong>Recent first-time buyers are most vulnerable</strong></p>
<p>Households that can hold on to their homes and weather the storm until the market recovers are not substantially harmed. Established owners, who bought their homes before or early in the boom years, have enjoyed the largest increase in their home values, and the largest reductions in their debt. This puts them in a position of relative resilience to a housing market bust.</p>
<p>In contrast, evidence from the 2008 housing crisis in the United States shows which households are most at risk. These were households that bought their first home with no deposit, or a very low one, in the period leading up to the 2008 crash. The crash left these households “underwater”, trapped with an asset worth less than their mortgage debt. Many defaulted on their mortgages, fuelling the housing market’s downward spiral.</p>
<p>The Australian housing market and financial institutions differ from those in the United States in 2008 in fundamental ways. Still, Australian households that bought their houses at the peak of the boom and have now lost their jobs in the coronavirus pandemic are facing the highest risk.</p>
<p>These include 24,000 recent (2014-5 to 2017-18) first home buyers who borrowed over 80% of the value of their home and were employed in industries where jobs have now collapsed. Another 135,200 recent first home buyers with high loan-to-valuation ratios are also at risk of going “underwater”, with homes worth less than their debt. Many of them are also in precarious employment, irrespective of the pandemic. (These figures do not include first home buyers in 2018-19, for which data are not yet available.)</p>
<p><strong>Renters’ relief could be short-lived</strong></p>
<p>Many private renters hope a housing downturn will translate into lower rents and perhaps give them a chance to buy their first home in a more affordable market. However, this is not always the case in a downturn. In the US from 2007 to 2009, despite declining house prices, rental affordability stress has only increased.</p>
<p>In Australia, the sudden decline in international students and short-term rentals has increased long-term rental vacancies in some areas. Reports suggest rents are going down, especially at the upper end of some rental markets.</p>
<p>However, in the longer run, the slowdown in housing construction will create supply shortages, leaving rental vacancies low and rents high. Many landlords, mostly “mum and dad” investors, have taken large loans to finance their property investment. They will need to keep rents high to hold on to their investment properties.</p>
<p>Lower house prices will enable some households to become home owners for the first time, after being locked out of the market during the boom years. These households could benefit from a coronavirus housing bust if the market then recovers. Even so, their gains will do little to change the overall trend of rising inequality made worse by the housing downturn.</p>
<p><strong>We need to flatten out booms and busts</strong></p>
<p>Improved housing affordability is necessary to reduce social and economic inequality. A housing downturn will reduce house prices. But this downturn, when coupled with rising unemployment, will not deliver greater equality, especially if it’s followed by yet another boom.</p>
<p>Australia has flattened the curve of COVID-19 infections. To be successful in reducing inequality, we need to flatten the curve of both booms and busts in the housing market cycle. And only a thorough overhaul of national housing policy will achieve that.</p>
<p><em><span style="font-size: 12.16px;"><strong>Ilan Wiesel</strong> is a Senior Lecturer in Urban Geography at the University of Melbourne</span></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Liss Ralston</strong> is an Urban Statistician at the Centre for Urban Transitions - Swinburne University of Technology</em></p>
<p><em><strong>Wendy Stone</strong> is an Associate Professor at the Centre for Urban Transitions, and the Director of the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute at the Swinburne University of Technology</em></p>
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Housing boom propelled inequality, but coronavirus bust will skyrocket it

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<p>After a roughly 35% plunge from their February high point to their lows around 23 March on fears regarding of global recession on the back of the coronavirus shutdowns, share markets have since rebounded sharply, led by US shares.</p>
<p>The rally has pushed the Australian ASX 200 back through 6000 for the first time since March.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/6/10/share%20market%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> enlarge: </p>
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<p><span>A common concern is that the rebound in share markets is </span><span>“too optimistic” and “irrational” – </span><span>how can share markets rebound so rapidly when economic conditions are so weak, coronavirus uncertainty remains high, the US is seeing civil unrest and US/China tensions are rising? </span></p>
<p><span>I must admit that I have also been surprised by the speed of the rebound and think maybe the markets are ahead of themselves. But I have seen this happen before and it reminds me of the quotation from the investor Sir </span><span>John Templeton “bull markets are born on </span><span>pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die of </span><span>euphoria” as this rally has occurr</span><span>ed against a lot of pessimism with shares climbing a wall of worry. </span></p>
<p><span>But as the quote reminds us, </span><span>that’s </span><span>what they often do. The plunge in shares into March led the coronavirus hit to activity &amp; fear of recession on the way down and in the process surprised many at the severity of the fall and now it</span><span>’</span><span>s led on the way up despite still lots of worries.</span></p>
<p><strong>Key drivers of the rally</strong></p>
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<p><span>So </span><span>what’s </span><span>driven the rally? In early April we listed </span><span>signposts </span><span>to watch as to whether shares have bottomed. The key signposts are updated in this table.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/6/10/share%20market%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
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<p><span>Virtually all of the signposts now tick off positively for developed countries. These are highlighted in green. So, put simply the rebound in shares has been driven by a combination of:<br></span></p>
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<li>Falling new coronavirus cases in developed countries.</li>
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<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/6/10/share%20market%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: </p>
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<li>Positive news regarding anti-virals and vaccines.</li>
<li>The reopening of developed countries as lockdown measures have been eased. This includes Australia which has gone from mildly severe lockdown to intermediate.</li>
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<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/6/10/share%20market%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
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<li>Massive fiscal and monetary support measures which have swamped those seen in the GFC. This has helped preserve businesses, jobs and incomes preventing defaults. Low interest rates also help make shares attractive for investors.</li>
<li>Green shoots of recovery. With the progressive relaxation of lockdowns, timely measures of economic data such as consumer confidence, restaurant bookings, retail foot traffic, credit card data, mobility indexes and jobs data suggest that US and Australian economic activity bottomed in April. See the next chart. Global business conditions indicators often referred to as PMIs also started to turn up in May after a plunge into April. This follows a similar pattern in China.</li>
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<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/6/10/share%20market%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: </p>
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<li>Investors being pessimistic and underweight shares after the plunge in March. This has meant there has been more investors who can be motivated to buy shares than sell.</li>
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<p><span>These considerations have simply swamped concerns about civil unrest in the US (which now appears to be settling down anyway) and US-China tensions.</span></p>
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<p><strong>Confirmation from other markets</strong></p>
<p><span>It</span><span>’</span><span>s not just shares that have rebounded as the rally has been confirmed by other growth sensitive assets/yields. In particular:</span></p>
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<li>Oil and metal prices are up sharply from their lows.</li>
<li>Commodity currencies like the $A have rebounded at the same time that the safe haven US dollar has fallen.</li>
<li>Bond yield have lagged the upswing in share markets, but they have now started to rise, albeit they remain very low.</li>
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<p><strong>So why has the US share market led on the way up?</strong></p>
<p>The US share market has a relative high exposure to tech and health care stocks that have been key beneficiaries of the coronavirus shock, Amazon is now 55% of retail stocks’ market capitalisation and the US has also seen more money printing or QE by the Fed compared to other countries including Australia.</p>
<p>By contrast, non-US and Australian shares are more cyclical – but should start to benefit as the recovery continues.</p>
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<p><strong>Correction risk</strong></p>
<p><span>After huge rallies most shares are technically overbought which could mean we see a correction over the next few months. </span></p>
<p><span>But many shares in many share markets are at overbought extremes often seen in the aftermath of major bear market lows and this augurs well for returns on a 6-12 basis.</span></p>
<p><strong>But what about the slump in earnings?</strong></p>
<p><span>Earnings are taking a big hit from the impact to economic activity and this has seen earnings estimates slump and price to earnings multiples surge. This is clearly a concern but note a typical </span><span>“cyclical” </span><span>rebound in shares goes through three phases.</span></p>
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<li>Phase 1 sees an unwinding of cheap valuations helped by easy monetary conditions but with receding downside risks causing some investors to snap up undervalued shares. This is the phase where shares climb a “wall of worry”.</li>
<li>Phase 2 is driven by strengthening profits.</li>
<li>Phase 3 sees euphoria with very bullish investors pushing shares to extreme levels. This is despite shares becoming expensive and central banks raising interest rates.</li>
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<p>Right now, we are nearing the end of Phase 1. As economic conditions recover profits are likely to strengthen and we will move into Phase 2.</p>
<p>While PEs are now high, it’s noteworthy that the equity risk premium which can be crudely measured as the gap between earnings yields (using forward earnings) and bond yields is still reasonable reflecting ultra-low bond yields. But an improvement in earnings will be a key thing to watch for.</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/6/10/share%20market%206.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</p>
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<p><strong>What are the key risks? </strong></p>
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<p><span>The three big risks are: a second wave of coronavirus cases </span>(which should be able to be avoided with lots of testing, tracking and quarantining and even if it does occur may not have the same negative economic impact as any renewed lockdown is likely to be milder and deaths are likely to be lower given greater preparedness); collateral damage from the shutdowns resulting in a delayed or very slow recovery as bankruptcies surge and unemployment goes higher (so far so good – with government and central bank support hopefully heading this off); and risks around the US election (such as Trump ramping up tensions with China if he feels he has nothing to lose or investors fretting about higher taxes and more regulation under a Democrat victory across the Presidency, House and Senate).</p>
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<p><strong>Concluding comment</strong></p>
<p><span>Shares are vulnerable to a short-term consolidation or pullback. But if we are right and April was the low in economic conditions then shares are likely to be higher on a 6 to 12-month horizon.</span></p>
<p><span> The experience of the last few months highlights just how hard it is to time market bottoms </span><span>– </span><span>a good approach for long-term investors is to average in over several months after major falls.</span></p>
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<p><span>SHANE OLIVER </span><em>is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital</em></p>
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Shares climb a “wall of worry” but is it sustainable? Shane Oliver 

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
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<div>There was a significant rebound in business confidence and conditions in May, albeit they still, of course, remain at historically weak levels:</div>
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<div>Business confidence jumped 20 points higher, but is still in negative territory, while business conditions improved by 10 points over the month. </div>
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<div><em>Via the NAB Survey, <a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-A8DtJIwNCOM/Xt8jOdG5hVI/AAAAAAAA2OM/Ho9bYL4tHukFvsEFIsFTPJZ-uwa0HChfgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Nab1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>:</em></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-A8DtJIwNCOM/Xt8jOdG5hVI/AAAAAAAA2OM/Ho9bYL4tHukFvsEFIsFTPJZ-uwa0HChfgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Nab1.jpg" width="640" height="216" data-original-height="543" data-original-width="1600"></div>
<br><div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Source: NAB Survey</em></span></div>
<br><div>Well, it's a decent start, as restrictions are eased.</div>
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<div>There have been some spectacular results for Australia in respect of COVID-19 today, with only two new confirmed cases, with two cases remaining in ICU:</div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-e6ppm6ZYJwg/Xt8k9UNyS3I/AAAAAAAA2Oc/LoA_SuoFzrcH8CUFePxERXc0g-K9GuVBACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="1426"></div>
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<div>Both of the new confirmed cases were returned overseas travellers, held in New South Wales quarantine:</div>
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<br>New Zealand is also now officially COVID-19 free.</div>
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<br><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
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Business conditions begin to claw back: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Headline: House prices fell in May. Alternative headline: House prices rose in May.</span> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Which is right? Actually, both. Or, more correctly, it depends on whose figures you believe.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">CoreLogic records a 0.4% reduction in house prices (overall, the average across the nation) during May, but Louis Christopher’s SQM Research reports a 1.1% rise in house prices over the same period.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">And when the latest figures from Domain and the ABS become available, they’ll have different numbers as well.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">We could spend hours discussing why different sources produce different (and sometimes conflicting) results on what’s happening with property prices. But suffice to say that they all have their own methodologies and parameters – and what they’re attempting, to distil tens of thousands of sales in myriad locations into a single growth figure, is a tad challenging.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">But, ultimately, it’s doesn’t matter whether CoreLogic is right or SQM is right. Essentially, they’re saying the same thing: property prices are remarkably stubborn in the face of major negative forces. As they so often are.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">House prices continue to defy the doomsday forecasters, many of them economists who refuse to let go of their flawed theories about how property prices SHOULD behave – and others among them opportunists who see potential to generate free publicity.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Here are some headlines:</span></p>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">“House prices to drop 20%: AMP Capital” – The Australian, 19 March.</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">“House prices could drop by up to 20%, says UBS” – Financial Review, 18 March</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">“Prices to plunge 30% as clearance rates fall off a cliff” – The Age, 8 April</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">“House prices will collapse, says UBS” – Financial Review, 2 April</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">“Can’t rule out 30% fall in house prices, says SQM” – Financial Review, 7 April</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">“House prices could dive 30%” – The Age, 27 April</span></li>
</ul>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">For those who declare “but it’s early days”, it isn’t.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">This pandemic shemozzle, in terms of its impact on Australian life, declared itself on 20 February when the share market had its first meltdown. We’ve already been through the worst of the health impacts and the toughest of the restrictions and now we’re emerging steadily from lockdown towards increasing levels of normality.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">When the price data for March (showing growth in most markets) was published, many in mainstream media said: “Yeah, but wait to we get the April figures, then we’ll see the true impact of Covid-19.”</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">When the April figures came out (again showing minor growth in most markets), we got the same reaction: “Yeah, but May will see prices nosediving.”</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Well, that didn’t happen either. The CoreLogic data showed that in May there was growth or no change in house prices in nine of the 15 market jurisdictions (eight capital cities and seven state regional markets), with an overall result of -0.4%, while SQM reported a national rise of 1.1% and a capital city rise of 0.5%, with increases in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Adelaide and Canberra.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">So, now the standard line from failed forecasters seeking to justify their negative stance on property markets is this: “Yeah, prices are stable for now but in September when the stimulus runs out everything will fall off a cliff.”</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">This comes direct from the kindergarten of real estate forecasting. It assumes that nothing will change over the next 3-4 months and that governments and lenders will recklessly turn off the tap without any regard to consequences.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">It also assumes that it’s all about JobKeeper and mortgage holidays, and overlooks the importance of infrastructure spending, loans and grants to businesses, support measures for renters, ongoing government stimulus measures like the $25,000 grant to home builders and renovators, and a whole lot more.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Australia has done well in this crisis and continues to do so. And the future belongs to those who see opportunity rather than calamity.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s3"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s1"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
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How true are real estate price fall headlines? Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<p>The Federal Government’s $25,000 Homebuilder package for the housing sector will help promote jobs and activity as New South Wales recovers from the economic effects of COVID-19.</p>
<p>That is important as construction is a key pillar of the economy – generating 7.5 percent of the nation’s growth as Australia’s third-biggest employer, after retail and health care and social assistance.</p>
<p>The $688 million package hopes to pull forward activity to avert the jobs cliff that could arise as exisiting projects finish in the second half of 2020 and early 2021.</p>
<p>The industry was not shutdown unlike other industries. But the package is aimed at forward work pipelines, with the time frame requiring quicker state government and council approvals, before any impact on the actual property market and prices and rents.</p>
<p>The program aims to provide 27,000 grants by December this year. It is for owner-occupiers, especially cashed up first home buyers, but not investors.</p>
<p>The means-tested grants will be restricted to large renovations and the construction of new homes as the project cost must be at least $150,000.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the scheme would drive a "tradie-led recovery" of the economy, and would support 140,000 direct construction jobs and a million workers in the wider residential building sector.</p>
<p>"The industry is facing a valley of death," the Master Builders Australia chief executive Denita Wawn warned.</p>
<p>The scheme will last until the end of the year, aiming to get 30,000 homes underway by Christmas.</p>
<p>Construction must commence within three months of the contract date.</p>
<p>Those eligible are singles who earned up to $125,000 the 2018-2019 tax year and couples who earned up to $200,000.</p>
<p>The scheme will work alongside existing state and territory first-home owner grants programs, stamp duty concessions and other grant schemes, including the federal government’s popular first-home loan deposit scheme and first-home super saver scheme.</p>
<p>The desired economic recovery will be swifter for having a housing that is robust, but there will be many would-be home owners who can't, won't or shouldn't participate.</p>
<p>It comes up against the backdrop that typically less than 20 percent of first-home buyers prefer to buy newly-constructed homes.</p>
<p>There are price thresholds that apply to the Homebuilder package, especially in Sydney which will be restrictive in most suburbs.</p>
<p>If you are building a new home the total value of the completed house and land needs to be less than $750,000.</p>
<p>Or if substantially renovating your existing home the value of your existing property does not exceed $1.5 million.</p>
<p>The package will primarily have an effect in the outer suburbs and its greenfield housing markets. Mostly people some way down the track to either buying or building will likely get to participate.</p>
<p>The scheme also covers buying units off the plan that are construction ready.</p>
<p>Architect academic Geoff Hanmer says no doubt the scheme's structure will encourage people to build in coffee makers, microwaves, fridges and washing machines to bump the contract price up above the $150,000 minimum.</p>
<p>Beware too that there are unscrupulous builders who may take advantage of the scheme, warns the NSW builder broker, Builder Finders' Lynette Manciameli, is concerned that the scheme is vulnerable to exploitation.</p>
<p>“What we are likely to see off the back of the HomeBuilder scheme is dodgy builders coming out of the woodwork." Mrs Manciameli suggests.</p>
<p>Adding it is more important than ever for consumers to do their due diligence when selecting a builder for their project including seeking out testimonials and checking credit scores.</p>
<p><em>This article was first published in </em>The Daily Telegraph</p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

HomeBuilder scheme will drive a tradie-led recovery

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<p><span>GemLife has purchased the balance of ‘The Heights Estate’ in Pimpama, Gold Coast, for $29,700,000 and plans to deliver an over 50’s lifestyle resort on the substantial site.</span><br><span> </span><br><span>The subdivision site, that offered around 46.41ha in land size, came with preliminary approval for 267 detached residential lots.</span><br><span> </span><br><span>The asset was marketed and sold by Ray White Special Projects Queensland Executive Directors Matthew Fritzsche, Mark Creevey and Tony Williams.</span><br><span> </span><br><span>Mr Fritzsche said the expressions of interest campaign demanded very strong enquiry and serious interest from groups.</span><br><span> </span><br><span>“There's limited developable land on the Gold Coast of this scale and quality, and it showed in the strong number of enquiries we had throughout the campaign,” he said.</span><br><span> </span><br><span>“It formed part of the master-planned ‘The Heights estate’ – which is a very well curated and presented estate by Sunland – on the northern Gold Coast.</span></p>
<p><span><span>“The Heights is 20 minutes* from the central Gold Coast and [approximately] 40 minutes from the Brisbane CBD. It’s in an elevated position within the estate, offering Gold Coast skyline views.</span><br><span> </span><br><span>“The target list comprised local, interstate and international groups, and interest was predominantly from the residential and retirement/manufactured home estate sector.”</span><br><span> </span><br><span>Mr Creevey said the sale highlighted that even in testing times, development sites with an element of approval would always be appealing.</span><br><span> </span><br><span>“This really is an exciting project and we’re looking forward to seeing GemLife deliver yet another quality project,” he said.</span><br><span> </span><br><span>“This is one of South East Queensland’s most recognised land estates - in a market with rapidly diminishing forward land supply.</span><br><span> </span><br><span>“It's a high-quality estate with a significant entry statement, boulevard roads and footpaths, landscaping throughout and features central parkland.”</span></span></p>
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GemLife pays $29.7 million to build Pimpama over 50's lifestyle resort

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER </p>
<div>GDP growth was estimated at a seasonally adjusted -0.3 per cent for Q1, leading to the inevitably mind-numbing 'recession we had to have' headlines.<br><br>Over the year GDP growth slowed to +1.4 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Q1 could yet be revised up, of course - especially the very significant negative drag from inventories - and therefore the technical definition of a recession may yet be avoided. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, given that GDP growth in Q2 will clearly be severely negative this is largely semantics.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Pt_Gww_Reuc/XtgnFuMgFeI/AAAAAAAA2HQ/vLAGeFkHn3M9QOwI61ZNNpoOjf5yT5T5ACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1381"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"><br>Nominal GDP growth over the year is floundering again.<br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZfLhyXG8ULc/XtgnF37tlzI/AAAAAAAA2HU/Mx852eP3OhEMtJBOxcGwPqRhzAM8SiTUQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="794" data-original-width="1401"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div>Real net national disposable income, as a proxy for living standards, has been fairly flat over the past six months. </div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NKWTgSUhZQs/XtgnF3i7aWI/AAAAAAAA2HY/CLQfAtv0DaM99MRoKMCyFkKHUTr-cnZfgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="368" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1394"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"><br>And the terms of trade have held up well to date, well above the long-run average.<br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HXTaXlH0wVI/XtgnGmiASCI/AAAAAAAA2Hg/GtnNP1jk36kKzW5yBz4CndeKKYu-AX0eQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A5.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1348"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div>Meanwhile, the interest payable on dwellings continues to fall, now down to the lowest level since 2009 despite the dramatic increase in the dwelling stock over that time.</div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MgkJhBkDCVg/XtgnGUlHiqI/AAAAAAAA2Hc/AKW1kQicX989EsVNqJ18tMPoeYSvBpyeQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1364"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Stimulus mixed</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>With the Reserve Bank fading quietly into the background, the government must now do the heavy lifting with its fiscal stimulus.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Aussie dollar has accordingly soared back towards US 70 cents, in turn slowing the adjustment process. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The terms of the $688 million renovation stimulus missed the mark completely, leaving such a skinny cohort of prospective qualifying applicants that the government needn't have bothered with it. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Essentially you must own a house and undertake an expensive renovation within the next few months, but without having a high income (while a whole heap of renovation options are excluded): </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-F-4fNLv_G3U/XtgoiKsKFjI/AAAAAAAA2H4/wHgQFtbv05Ixdzimj9Xru2Jnvr8LUCxXQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/rebo.jpg" width="640" height="606" data-original-height="723" data-original-width="762"></div>
<div>
<br>Perhaps some retirees might qualify for a grant, and maybe a few young homeowners with wealthy parents.<br><br>
</div>
<div>The terms of the HomeBuilder grant scheme for <em>new</em> homes are far better targeted, and will undoubtedly be a net positive for the industry. </div>
<div>
<br><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
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GDP headed down, recession all but locked in: Pete Wargent

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<p>A mortgagee home in Perth's Helena Valley has been listed for sale for $455,000.</p>
<p>Located at 17 Prunus Place, in a cul de sac, the house features four bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a double garage.</p>
<p>There also an in ground pool, and turfed back yard area.</p>
<p>the total block comprises a 1008 square metre block.</p>
<p>It last sold in 1998, for $172,500.</p>
<p>It was built in 1996.</p>
<p>Richard Lowenhoff and Jessica Macarthur, from LJ Hooker Midland, have the listing.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><span style="color: #666666; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold;"><span> </span></span></p>
<p><span style="color: #666666; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold;"><span> </span></span></p>
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