Article summary

<ul data-end="785" data-start="311">
	<li data-end="459" data-section-id="5hbcyr" data-start="311">Pikos Group has released the five-penthouse collection at Skye Kangaroo Point, headlined by a two-storey sky home spanning more than 1,000 sqm.</li>
	<li data-end="561" data-section-id="1p7lq8n" data-start="460">Early buyer interest suggests the residences could set a new Queensland apartment price record.</li>
	<li data-end="667" data-section-id="1y70z0l" data-start="562">The collection includes four move-in ready penthouses and the highly customised Skye One residence.</li>
	<li data-end="785" data-section-id="yvm0y1" data-start="668">The release caps one of Bri​sbane's most ambitious luxury apartment developments overlooking the Brisbane River.</li>
</ul>

<hr data-end="790" data-start="787" />
Pikos Group has released the five-penthouse collection at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/skye-residences-by-pikos-kangaroo-point-8-river-terrace-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Skye by Pikos</a> development in Kangaroo Point, with early buyer interest indicating the flagship residences could eclipse every apartment sale previously recorded in Queensland.

The collection crowns the luxury riverfront development with five residences, including four completed penthouses and Skye One, a two-level sky home spanning more than 1,000 sqm that will be tailored to its eventual owner.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374075]

Wanting to offer a fully customisable home, Pikos is offering Skye One as a blank canvas, allowing the buyer to work alongside the developer's design team to customise the home's layout, finishes and internal spaces.

The residence will feature a 247 sqm private rooftop terrace with its own swimming pool, sauna, steam room, outdoor kitchen and multiple entertaining areas overlooking the Brisbane River and CBD skyline.

The remaining four penthouses have been completed and are ready for immediate occupation, each offering four bedrooms, expansive open-plan living areas, soaring ceilings and private lift access.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374059]

One of the defining features throughout the project is its use of Roman Classic Travertine, with more than 20,000 sqm of the natural stone imported from Italy after being personally selected by Pikos Group Founder and Executive Director Pedro Pikos, interior designer Julie Williamson and third-generation stone specialist Mario Caucci.

Pikos said the penthouse collection represented the culmination of the company's long-term vision for Skye.

"True legacy isn't measured by what we build today, but by what endures tomorrow," Pikos said.

"Our ambition is to create places that become more valuable with time, enrich the lives of generations, and stand as timeless landmarks long after we've stepped away."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374060]

Williamson said the interiors were inspired by the natural character of Kangaroo Point and the Brisbane River rather than international design trends.

"Materiality tells the story of a place," Williamson said.

"We looked to the movement of the Brisbane River, the texture of the cliff face and the warmth of the surrounding landscape to create interiors that feel understated, enduring and unmistakably Brisbane."

Positioned above the Kangaroo Point cliffs, Skye places residents within walking distance of Howard Smith Wharves, South Bank and James Street while offering uninterrupted river and city views.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=90059]

Joel Robinson

Brisbane's next apartment price record? Pikos unveils Skye's exclusive penthouse collection

Article summary

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.

The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" />

The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.

“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;

“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."

Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."

"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." />

The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.

A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.

Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" />

Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.

“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.

“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.

“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" />

Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.

With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]

DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

A proposal to redevelop one of North Sydney's ageing commercial buildings has taken another step forward, with plans for a 38-storey mixed-use tower adding momentum to the long-awaited transformation of the Alfred Street precinct.

Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority-led State Significant Development pathway, the proposal for 271-273 Alfred Street would replace an underutilised commercial building with 95 apartments, ground-floor retail, commercial space and affordable housing. The proposal was submitted by&nbsp;Tara Shore Pty Ltd, acting for the John Taylor Family Trust.

While the project will deliver much-needed housing on the southern edge of the North Sydney CBD, it also represents another piece of a broader precinct that has spent years in planning limbo.

<img alt="First look: New public domain vision underpins 95-apartment North Sydney tower on Alfred Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7e1ce1b4-38df-48ab-992f-386814d86308" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Alfred%20St%20da%20podium.png?VersionId=sC_h6w.A9VEoB98qsqowPlIoz__sBZBt" />

Despite its proximity to both North Sydney Station and the Victoria Cross Metro, redevelopment of Alfred Street has progressed slowly over the past decade as broader planning controls, zoning and building heights remained unresolved. The introduction of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway has provided a new avenue for projects to progress, allowing rezoning and development assessment to occur concurrently and unlocking sites that have long been earmarked for renewal.

Designed by Office of Cortese &amp; Gilder, the proposal seeks to do more than replace an ageing office building. The architects have positioned the project as the first stage of a wider public domain vision that would improve pedestrian connectivity and create a more cohesive mixed-use precinct as neighbouring sites are redeveloped over time.

The proposal includes a widened Alfred Street setback, new street trees, landscaping and outdoor seating, along with a landscaped through-site pedestrian link connecting Alfred Street with Little Alfred Street. The connection is intended to become the first section of a future east-west pedestrian network extending across the precinct.

<img alt="First look: New public domain vision underpins 95-apartment North Sydney tower on Alfred Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8ea39ac3-46ad-4562-b4a0-b862e91c2dda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Alfred%20St%20da%20site.png?VersionId=K7umCd21KpetEFuVfsPlnJKhUOsmTTdV" />

The mixed-use tower would comprise retail space at ground level, commercial uses on level two and apartments from level three upwards.

In total, the development would deliver 95 apartments, including nine one-bedroom, 28 two-bedroom, 56 three-bedroom and two four-bedroom residences. Twenty-one apartments, representing 15 per cent of the residential gross floor area, would be secured as affordable housing and managed by a registered community housing provider for at least 15 years.

Nine basement levels would provide 133 resident car spaces, seven motorcycle spaces and 111 bicycle spaces.

According to the Architecture and Urban Design Report, the public domain strategy is designed to transform what is currently an inward-facing commercial edge into a more active and connected pedestrian environment, creating a stronger relationship between the commercial core and surrounding residential neighbourhoods.

Office of Cortese &amp; Gilder has also prepared a broader public domain framework spanning neighbouring properties between 263 and 283 Alfred Street, arguing that a coordinated approach to redevelopment will deliver better public spaces, improved tower separation and a more connected streetscape as the precinct evolves.

The proposal comes at a time where North Sydney is slated for future residential growth. Commercial developer FiveX has residential plans for the neighbouring site at 275 Alfred Street. They've proposed a 39-storey mixed-use tower with 184 apartments, while Freecity was recently approved for nearly 300 apartments across a 51-storey building on Walker Street.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-freecity-gets-green-light-for-mixed-use-apartment-and-hotel-tower-in-north-sydney">First look: Freecity gets green light for mixed-use apartment and hotel tower in North Sydney</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-fivex-plans-39-storey-residential-tower-in-booming-north-sydney">First look: Fivex plans 39-storey residential tower in booming North Sydney</a>

&nbsp;

Alfred Street the latest North Sydney pocket to be transformed by residential development

Buyers considering a residence at boutique Gordon townhouse development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/lume-gordon-43-47-dumaresq-street-gordon-nsw-2072">Lume</a>&nbsp;now have another reason to bring forward their decision.

For a limited time, purchasers of a residence at Lume will receive a BMW iX3 50 electric SUV, valued at more than $120,000, as part of their purchase. The offer is designed to add value for buyers while complementing the lifestyle envisioned for the architecturally designed Upper North Shore development.

Scott Timmins, Development Manager at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/winim">WINIM</a>, said the partnership was created to provide buyers with a compelling reason to act.

"In today's market, buyers need a compelling reason to act now, and the BMW partnership was designed to create that catalyst. We wanted to add genuine value for our future purchasers. Choosing the all-electric BMW iX3 50 also reflects the values behind LUME, forward-thinking design, innovation and a more sustainable way of living. It's a premium incentive that complements the lifestyle our buyers aspire to and rewards those who commit early."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374893]

Delivered by WINIM in partnership with Burtonwood Investment Partners, Lume comprises 14 architecturally designed two, three and four-bedroom townhomes created for families seeking the space of a freestanding house with the ease of modern, low-maintenance living.

The three-storey residences, designed by award-winning architecture practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, have been tailored for families and multi-generational living, featuring private internal lifts, flexible lower-level spaces, generous open-plan living and entertaining areas, media rooms, and landscaped outdoor spaces with custom outdoor kitchens.&nbsp;

Inside, engineered oak flooring, bespoke dining joinery with integrated wine fridges and backlit bars, sculptural porcelain bathrooms, Parisi freestanding baths and Astra Walker tapware create interiors that balance functionality with refined finishes.

Each townhome has been designed to combine generous internal spaces with sustainability initiatives such as EV charging infrastructure, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>'s landscaped communal areas, centred around a restored creek line and native planting, encourage residents to connect with nature and spend more time outdoors.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=269527]

Rothelowman's Gary Tsui said the architecture was conceived to respond carefully to its Upper North Shore setting.

"Our vision was to create elegant, uplifting homes that draw on and positively contribute to the local character through meticulously considered design and an interaction with the surroundings."

The communal landscape has been designed as more than an open space between homes. Arcadia's Ben Newell and Kate Phillips said the adjoining reserve provided an opportunity to create a distinctive natural retreat for residents.

"Just as waterways carve their way through Ku-ring-gai's landscape, a raised boardwalk weaves through the reserve, connecting the homes to this tranquil oasis."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374892]

Located just 300 metres from <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/gordon-nsw-2072">Gordon</a> Village and Gordon railway station, Lume offers convenient access to Sydney's CBD while placing residents close to some of the North Shore's leading schools, including Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College and Knox Grammar. Lane Cove National Park, Gordon Golf Club and a range of cafés and restaurants further reinforce the family-focused lifestyle on offer, with the BMW iX3 50 complementing everything from local trips around Gordon to weekend drives and city commutes.

Construction is underway with completion expected in mid-2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7354]

Boutique Gordon townhomes now come with a BMW iX3 50

Two apartments have sold for more than $10 million at EADE Byron Bay, setting some of the highest apartment prices ever achieved in the coastal town and underlining the growing appetite for luxury beachfront apartments in Australia's most popular coastal locations.

The $210 million project by Vitale Property Group has now secured more than $70 million in sales, led by residences that changed hands for $12.75 million and $11.75 million.

The record-breaking transactions reinforce the shift occurring in Byron Bay's premium property market, where affluent downsizers and lifestyle buyers are increasingly opting for high-end apartments over large beachfront homes.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/eade-byron-bay-29-shirley-street-byron-bay-nsw-2481">EADE Byron Bay</a> occupies a rare 6,000 sqm absolute beachfront site on the corner of Shirley and Milton Streets overlooking Main Beach and The Wreck surf break, just 350 metres from Byron Bay's town centre.

The 25-residence development is the first beachfront apartment project approved in Byron Bay in more than a decade and is currently under construction, with completion expected in May 2027.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359521]

The project has attracted a mix of local Byron Shire residents downsizing from larger homes, alongside interstate buyers from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane seeking a permanent coastal lifestyle without compromising on space.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hayball">Hayball</a> and with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/alexander-co">Alexander &amp; Co</a>, EADE comprises&nbsp;10 garden apartments ranging from 284 sqm to 622 sqm, nine with private pools, five full-floor apartments and 10 rooftop residences with private plunge pools, expansive outdoor entertaining areas and uninterrupted ocean views.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359527]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/vitale-property-group">Vitale Property Group</a> Managing Partner Chris Vitale said the project's combination of scale, location and limited future supply was driving buyer demand.

"There isn't another beachfront holding in Byron Bay of this size and position that could be developed again," Vitale said.

"Buyers are responding to the scarcity and the irreplaceability of a site of this calibre and to floorplans they can't find elsewhere in the market.

"We are seeing buyers place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of the location. The sales achieved to date demonstrate that discerning purchasers recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay.

"Many are coming from larger homes in the Byron region, or from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, and are after the space, security and convenience, without the upkeep of a house."

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359523]

The Byron Bay project follows Vitale Property Group's delivery of the Mondrian Hotel and Private Residences at Burleigh Heads, with EADE continuing the developer's focus on luxury coastal developments.

Residents will have access to a resort-style swimming pool, gymnasium, sauna, cold plunge pool, concierge services and dedicated workspaces, while the project is targeting an 8-Star Green Star rating.

EADE Byron Bay is being exclusively marketed by Projx Australia in conjunction with WHITEFOX Projects.

WHITEFOX National Projects Director Phillip Rand said demand had been driven predominantly by owner-occupiers.

"We are seeing buyers at EADE place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of this location," Rand says.

"The sales achieved to date demonstrate that purchasers at this level recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay."

Residences at EADE Byron Bay are currently priced between $4.75 million and $15.95 million.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145590]

Vitale breaks Byron Bay records with EADE sales flurry 

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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A freehold Shute Harbour waterfront site in Queensland's Whitsunday Islands has been snapped up for $2.65 million.
The development site at <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://raywhitewhitsunday.com.au/properties/sold-commercial/qld/shute-harbour-4802/other/2257179" target="_blank">3344 Shute Harbour Road</a> is on two titles totalling 8,199sqm.
The property was offered via an expressions of interest campaign and was sold by Andrew Burke of Ray White Special Projects Queensland, and Mark Beale, Principal of Ray White Whitsunday.
The asset received six offers during the campaign and they were from a mix of marine industry, land bankers and residential developers, Burke said.
“The vendor was a local businessman who previously had the site used as a hotel before Cyclone Debbie in 2017 destroyed the buildings, and with retirement on the horizon, they decided to sell.
“The buyer was from regional NSW but was familiar with the location as they frequently holiday nearby," Bruke said. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/5/25/3344%20Shute%20Harbour%20Rd%20Aerials-8.jpg" alt="">
The Whitsundays offered a collection of beaches surrounded by waters decorated with coral gardens.
"Shute Harbour is commonly described as the natural harbour location south east of Airlie Beach. It contains a pocket of development isolated from the centre of Airlie Beach by a significant national park," ” Beale said.
Zoned mixed use, the site offers opportunities for residential, tourist accommodation, business, retail or service industry.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Whitsunday waterfront site sells for $2.65 million

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Job ads were down by -16.4 per cent or -18,400 in April, on a trend basis. It's comfortably the largest fall since the series began in January 2006.
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-q35jEtsikg4/XsSE29lhhnI/AAAAAAAA1zY/rzBpzl5sB6M43RJ-2BIFn8jzFyj6QaTTACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-q35jEtsikg4/XsSE29lhhnI/AAAAAAAA1zY/rzBpzl5sB6M43RJ-2BIFn8jzFyj6QaTTACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1409"></a></div>
In New South Wales, vacancies have gone from 70k at the cyclical peak to 22k.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LfE8GC9eDfQ/XsSE3NbSCiI/AAAAAAAA1zc/miEm0vt-ge0IAGuM0GaOsecptiXgih29wCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="1386">
<div>Dreadful numbers, which suggest that the unemployment rate will roughly go from 5 to 10 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia has done a wonderful job of flattening the curve of COVID-19 cases, to the extent that there are only 9 (nine) cases remaining in ICU. </div>
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RCwkp7NkKL4/XsSFV9guKUI/AAAAAAAA1zo/UwIbpjtg2T4NdZQa8L3pvwxmsgddJaadQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1409">
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Time to reopen the economy, and then the borders...with quarantine.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sensibly managed, Australia will be in a stronger position than ever to welcome the world's best and brightest. </div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Largest fall in job ads ever recorded: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
As Australia begins to relax its COVID-19 restrictions there is understandable debate about how quickly that should proceed, and whether lockdowns even made sense in Australia in the first place.
The sceptics arguing for more rapid relaxation of containment measures point to the economic costs of lockdowns and appeal to the cold calculus of <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cost-benefitanalysis.asp" target="_blank">cost-benefit analysis</a> to conclude that the lives saved by lockdowns don’t justify the economic costs incurred to do so.
Their numbers don’t stack up.
To be able to weigh the value of a life against the economic costs of forgone output from lost jobs and business closures, requires placing a dollar value on one person’s life. This number is called the value of a statistical life.
In Australia, the Government generally uses a value of A$<a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/Value_of_Statistical_Life_guidance_note.pdf" target="_blank">4.9 million</a>. The United States uses a value of <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-value-of-life/" target="_blank">US$10 million</a>.
What are the benefits of the shutdown? This is the value of lives saved plus any indirect economic or health benefits. Lives saved are those excess lives that would be lost if government relied on a strategy that allowed enough people to get infected to result in so-called <a href="https://www.webmd.com/lung/what-is-herd-immunity#1" target="_blank">herd immunity</a>.
How many extra lives would be lost under this second strategy?
To answer this, we need assumptions about the virus.
<h2>The lives lost if we let it rip</h2>
The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/europe/coronavirus-R0-explainer?referringSource=articleShare" target="_blank">initial reproduction rate</a> of the virus, R0, was thought to be about 2.5. This means that every 2 people infected were likely to infect another 5; producing an average infection rate per person of 2.5.
Herd immunity for COVID-19 is estimated to require roughly 60% of the population be infected before the <a href="https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve" target="_blank">curve begins to flatten</a> and the peak infections fall.
This happens when the reproduction rate, R0, falls below one. Because of subsequent new infections, the total number infected over the course of the pandemic is closer to 90%.
Given a population of 25 million people and assuming a fatality rate of 1%, this would produce 225,000 deaths.
An assumption of a 1% fatality rate is low from the perspective of those making decisions at the onset of the pandemic, at a time when crucial and reliable data were missing.
<h2>Those lives are valued at $1.1 trillion</h2>
Converting those fatalities to dollars using the Australian value of a statistical life of A$4.9 million per life yields a cost of A$1.1 trillion.
In rough terms, that’s the amount we have gained by shutting down the economy, provided deaths do not skyrocket when lockdown measures are relaxed and borders re-open.
It is about three fifths of one year’s gross domestic product, which is about A$1.9 trillion.
What are the costs of the shutdown?
These are the direct economic costs from reduced economic activity plus the indirect social, medical, and economic costs, all measured in terms of national income.
A starting point is to take the lost income that occurs from the recession that has probably already begun.
<h2>What will the shutdown cost?</h2>
Let’s assume that the downturn results in a 10% drop in gross domestic product over 2020 and 2021 – about $180 billion – consistent with IMF forecasts of a fall in GDP of 6.7% in 2020 and a sharp rebound of 6.1% growth in 2021, and comparable to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s forecasts in the latest <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2020/may/" target="_blank">Statement on Monetary Policy</a>.
Comparing this cost from shutting down – about $180 billion – to the benefit of $1,103 billion – makes the case for shutdown clear.
But this calculation grossly overestimates the costs of the shutdown.
The recession is a consequence of both the shutdown and the pandemic.
We need to attribute costs to each.
Most of the economic costs of the recession are likely to be due to the pandemic itself rather the shutdown.
<h2>Many costs would have been borne anyway</h2>
Even before the shutdown, economic activity was in decline.
Both in Australia and internationally air travel, restaurant bookings and a range of other activities had fallen sharply.
They were the result of a “private shutdown” that commenced before the mandated government shutdown.
Even in a country such as Sweden, where a shutdown has not been mandatory, there has been a more than 75% reduction in movement in central Stockholm and a more than 90% reduction in travel to some domestic holiday destinations.
To be generous, let’s assume the costs attributable to the government-mandated part of the shutdown are half of the total costs, making their cost A$90 billion.
In reality, they are likely to be less, one important study suggests <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.04630.pdf" target="_blank">much less</a>.
It is hard to imagine a much bigger private shutdown not taking place had the government decided to simply let the disease rip until its spread was slowed by herd immunity.
<h2>Support is not a cost</h2>
It is also important to note that the government’s spending of A$214 billion to support the economy during the shutdown is a transfer of resources from one part of society to another rather than a cost.
It creates neither direct costs nor benefits for society as a whole, other than the economic distortions coming from raising the revenue to service the spending.
With long-term government bond rates near 1% (less than inflation), the total cost of distortions is likely to be tiny.
Of course, this discussion simplifies what are incredibly complex social, health and economic questions. There are clearly further costs, from both relaxing restrictions and keeping them in place.
<h2>Other costs are not that big</h2>
These costs are worthy of serious study and should rightly be part of a comprehensive public policy discussion. But looked at through the lens of a cost-benefit analysis these combined effects are likely to be small relative to the value of preventing mass death.
Among them are the incidence of mental health problems and domestic violence under lockdowns. They are important concerns that should be addressed by targeted and well-designed programs.
Weighing against that is evidence that economic crises are associated with <a href="https://voxeu.org/article/economic-crises-and-mortality" target="_blank">declines</a> in overall mortality rates. 
While suicides rise, total mortality, including deaths from heart attacks and workplace and traffic accidents, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/02/coronavirus-economy-reopen-deaths-balance-analysis-159248" target="_blank">falls</a>.
In the specific case of this pandemic there is <a href="https://psyarxiv.com/3kfmh" target="_blank">survey evidence</a> based on respondents from 58 countries suggesting that strong government responses to the pandemic have been reducing worry and depression.
Also, we have to acknowledge that recessions and educational disruption have health and economic costs that are unequally spread.
The shutdown disproportionately impacts more-disadvantaged people including short-term casual workers, migrant workers, those with disabilities and the homeless.
<h2>The most-disadvantaged suffer, either way</h2>
This skewing will also be present in the herd immunity option. As New York City makes clear, a rapid spread of the disease also disproportionately impacts disadvantaged communities. One can only speculate about the disease burden should some of our remote indigenous communities get exposed.
To this we should add further achievements of the shutdown:
<ul>
<li>
elimination of mental trauma and grief from losing our loved ones
</li>
<li>
avoiding the costs of possible longer-term implications of the disease, which we still know little about
</li>
<li>
avoiding a collapse in the capacity of the health system to deal with other emergencies through the sheer numbers of COVID-19 infected combined with staff shortages due to illness
</li>
</ul>
Those advocating cost-benefit analysis of this kind have to apply the principle systematically. It is difficult to see how the total of these sorts of considerations on each side of the ledger could compare to the benefit of lives saved. They will be an order of magnitude, if not two, smaller.
<h2>$90 billion, versus $1.1 trillion</h2>
In the cold calculus of cost-benefit analysis, a highly pessimistic view of the economic costs of Australia’s shutdown comes to around $90 billion.
It is a small price to pay compared to the statistical value of lives the shutdown should save, around A$1.1 trillion.
It produces a simple message. The shutdown wins.
The question we now face is how quickly to relax restrictions. Here, too, there are costs and benefits, and we need to be mindful of the economic cost of a second-wave outbreak, plus mortality costs of disease spread before effective treatments or vaccine become available.
And in all of this bean counting, we should remember that putting a price tag on human life is sometimes unavoidable – such as when a doctor with access to only one ventilator has to choose between two patients.
But we shouldn’t mistake necessity for desirability. We should seek to avoid needing to make such wrenching choices whenever possible.
Dr Jen Schaefer of the Royal Children’s Hospital Melbourne assisted with the preparation of this piece.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138303/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bruce-preston-452859" target="_blank">Bruce Preston</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722" target="_blank">University of Melbourne</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-costs-of-the-shutdown-are-overestimated-theyre-outweighed-by-its-1-trillion-benefit-138303" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Costs of the shutdown are overestimated, they’re outweighed by its $1 trillion benefit

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EXPERT OBSERVER
New forecasts released today say new home building will fall by almost 50 per cent, putting half a million jobs at risk over the next year.
In 2018/19 the industry engaged over 1 million people to commence building almost 200,000 new homes. Next year we expect to start just 112,000 new homes leaving up to 500,000 jobs at risk.
The shock to the economy from the halting of overseas migration, the absence of student arrivals and uncertainty over the domestic economy will see the market at a lower point in December 2020, than it was during the 1990’s recession.
It will then continue to decline though 2021, even with the return of overseas students and migration.
This shock will reverberate through the residential building industry, up and down the supply chain. Employment in the sector is not expected to recover within the next two years.
The loss of the international students and migration creates a temporary imbalance in demand for rental accommodation. The 625,000 overseas students enrolled in Australian education institutions equates to demand for the past two years of apartment construction. It is not clear how many of these left in March or how many will return.
For the past 20 years Australia’s economic growth has been underscored by stable population growth.
The nature of this shock requires significant and ongoing support from policymakers in Australia and amongst our trading partners. The risk that insufficient support will produce a decade of deflation, depression and human hardship, is present.
This means that of all the concerns facing government right now, debt should not be at the top of the list.
JobKeeper plays a very important role in supporting workers directly impacted by industry shutdowns. The building industry has been fortunate to continue operating.
Many small builders will not be eligible for the program as the downturn will impact the sector most significantly from September 2020 when the majority of projects under construction are completed.
Restarting the economy and allowing students to return are also necessary steps to a full recovery.
Drawing forward housing demand can also play a role in alleviating the emerging shock to new home construction and the wider economy. Traditionally, Australia has done this through empowering consumers to build new homes.
With the caveat that there is a high degree of uncertainty around the outlook, the disruption to migration and the elevated rate of unemployment will weigh heavily on demand for residential building beyond 2020. In financial year terms, dwelling starts in 2019/20 are now expected to be down by 18.3 per cent compared with 2018/19, and starts are forecast to decline by a further 30.5 per cent in 2020/21.
If this transpires, the commencement of new homes will have fallen nearly 43 per cent from last year, to next.
Graham Wolfe is the Managing Director of the Housing Industry Association (HIA).
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Half a million Australian jobs are at risk: HIA's Graham Wolfe

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EXPERT OBSERVER
There are 3 key drivers of property prices.
<div>
(i) Supply - the rate of construction and the properties listed for sale on the market;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
(ii) Interest rates - the cost of borrowing; and</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
(iii) Population growth - immigration, natural population growth (births minus deaths), and interstate migration.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Or, as depicted in his infographic:</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JfAMyhsEwDU/XsC1SuAaGqI/AAAAAAAA1xE/oWHfOVu6Wt4Dg29nArHLDV26HjXIy8SaACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/FIN.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="445" data-original-width="791"></div>
 
<div>Source: Tim Boyle, Finalytics</div>
 
<div>People often state that the unemployment rate is critical, but this argument isn't backed up by any hard statistics. In fact the last couple of times the unemployment rate spiked housing prices soared the following year, as pointed out by Stuart Wemyss of ProSolution, Game of Mates author Dr. Cameron Murray, and others:</div>
 
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mGeIhomU-Rw/XsDARe3SG3I/AAAAAAAA1xg/AF7pCtVj6yImNusAc2_soCsN-9f2dwlHQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="423" data-original-width="738"></div>
 
<div>There's also an enormous fiscal stimulus washing through, comfortably dwarfing anything we've seen in recent decades. </div>
 
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SwOd64SloIQ/XsDAdNa9cVI/AAAAAAAA1xk/IA2iutyq4sE-ulOJVokqdP6KWZMNVqNCwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Stim.jpg" width="640" height="638" data-original-height="738" data-original-width="739"></div>
 Boyle's 3 drivers today In that context, here's what's happening with Boyle's 3 key drivers today. Supply is extremely tight at the moment. Dwelling construction is plunging towards 70-year lows and vendors aren't listing either. <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ituPSwbTdvU/XrNkMZcBltI/AAAAAAAA1lM/lSj4XGqL1Gcc-lP5wKWKzjVlXG5YWXJ-gCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CL2.jpg" width="640" height="386"> 
<div>Source: CoreLogic</div>
 Lending rates, meanwhile, are at the lowest level in modern history. <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HHbGid402-g/XrNlXdwQxnI/AAAAAAAA1lc/Fd54mmUYX1kJWedMT-5JdHyEbCZFOZD3ACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CL3.jpg" width="640" height="398"> 
<div>This effectively allows borrowers to take on bigger mortgages, as I showed in my recent post on lending trends. ANZ have just noted the same thing: <div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bGysfQwD18o/XsDAo9GSxRI/AAAAAAAA1xs/Vx2-pm8vZHE32TUM-20dz-8UmDRRD4DyQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/ANZ1.jpg" width="640" height="448" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1143"></div>
 The big unknown factor at this stage is population growth.
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>My base case expectation or scenario is that within the next few months the powerful interests such as the Property Council, Australia's universities, the airlines, Tourism Australia, and big business at the top end of town will have forced the government's hand to reopen the borders, albeit with a period of enforced quarantine.</div>
 
<div>As for the thesis that things will be totally different after COVID-19...well as a gallant but struggling home-schooler I reckon that's total garbage! People can't wait to get back and out to spend, socialise, travel, go to work, and holiday again.</div>
 It's just the way we're designed, we're pack animals. 
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-r9TZrsC6zMw/XsC1SYxsobI/AAAAAAAA1xA/_k9XLZBNywgB_0ApBK_96zfH9-jzlSPNACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/JT.jpg" width="640" height="308" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="747"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>And moreover, Australia will likely be seen as one of the safest and most desirable countries on earth in which to live.</div>
<div>
 PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
</div>
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The three drivers of property prices: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The key question for Hotspotting in putting together our reports in the current climate is this: among the locations that have strong long-term fundamentals supporting price growth, which ones are best set-up to withstand the forces of the Covid-19 shutdown?
We’re searching for places which have the credentials to do well in the short-term, in dealing with the impacts of virus crisis, as well as having the features that drive long-term growth.
As I see it, the key factors are:
1. The strength of the market pre-coronavirus
2. The level of vacancies going into the virus shutdown period
3. The make-up of the local economy and in particular where most of the jobs exist
4. The key components of population growth in that location
5. The level of spending on infrastructure
All of those elements are important, but perhaps the most important one in the short-term is the make-up of the local economy and which sectors provide the bulk of the jobs.
Let me give you an example: Albury-Wodonga, which straddles the border between NSW and Victoria, has one of strongest economies anywhere in regional Australia, it offers wonderful affordability and high rental yields – and, in the past 12 months, there’s been some pretty good price growth there.
But the key factor about Albury-Wodonga right now is where most of its employment exists.
The four biggest sectors that provide the most jobs in this city are: 1 hospitals and medical services; 2 supermarkets and food stores; 3 the military; and 4 aged care.
I can’t imagine a better situation in terms of sectors likely to be hiring rather than firing in the current climate than those.
So, right now, amid all the issues afflicting Australia because of the coronavirus, Albury-Wodonga is performing well in its economy and its property market.
Overall, what we know to be true is that regional Australia is much less impacted by the virus shutdown, generally speaking, than the major cities.
Clearly, regional cities where the economy is largely dependent on tourism will suffer. But most of the regional centres that interest us are not in that situation.
Most of the regional centres that are grabbing our attention have economies based on sectors that are doing well in the current situation, or are likely to do well as we exit the lockdown phase and head back towards normal - sectors like agriculture, viticulture and resources &amp; energy.
Among the capital cities, Adelaide property market is particularly well placed to emerge from the shutdown with prospects for growth.
Coming into the virus crisis, Adelaide was one of the leading capital city markets in the nation with the best prospects for growth.
The Autumn 2020 edition of the Price Predictor Index ranked Adelaide No.1 among the state and territory capital cities for the number of suburbs with rising sales activity, out-ranking both Melbourne and Sydney.
Adelaide is one of the nation’s most consistent property markets. It always delivers steady demand, underpinned by a solid local economy and helped by the exceptional value for money offered by its housing market.
Adelaide also had a very low vacancy rate heading into the shutdown period: an overall vacancy rate below 1% which means the city’s rental market is well-placed to absorb the extra rental stock coming into the market because of the impact of the virus shutdown.
The latest figures, to the beginning of April, show that even with the recent influx of new properties seeking tenants, its vacancy rate is still just 1.2% (the lowest among the capitals, equal with Canberra).
The city’s economy is in a strong position to recover well from the shutdown period.
Adelaide is the high-tech innovation capital of Australia and South Australia leads the nation in the production of alternative energy. It has been transitioning strongly from old-style manufacturing to the production of modern technology products.
One of the likely outcomes from the virus crisis is a revival of manufacturing in Australia and Adelaide is well-placed to benefit from that.
Adelaide also has strong sectors in education and medical services.
It has a state government which has been spending significant amounts on infrastructure – and has announced plans to fast-track shovel-ready infrastructure projects to lead the economic recovery on the other side of the shutdown period.
Overall, I see Adelaide as being one of the best capital cities in the nation for real estate investment with good prospects for future growth, as well as above-average rental yields.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Adelaide property market to emerge strong from COVID-19 shutdown: HotSpotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Commonwealth Bank reported a much lower home loan arrears profile as compared to many of its peers today.
144,000 borrowers opted to take mortgage holidays, according to the trading update, equating to $50 billion in mortgage balances. 
S&amp;P Global also reported that Prime SPIN mortgage arrears were flat in March 2020, with 30-day arrears unchanged at 1.41 per cent. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_45Io7Peg6E/XrumPFDZniI/AAAAAAAA1to/N14QcbHAMyQsttMIO1EJCxl4KT7jl4fRwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/S1.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1380">
There were minor increases in mortgage arrears in the most populous states, but these were offset by a decline in the Australian Capital Territory, where 30-plus day arrears declined to just 1.04 per cent. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IliIkf5vbLk/XrumPFe-0CI/AAAAAAAA1tk/tzLdj1PwqFYwBFikyIgD8Ho5pgy-AITyQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/S2.jpg" width="640" height="358" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1425">
Total 30-day arrears were higher for owner-occupiers, increasing to 1.73 per cent, but remained lower for investors at 1.46 per cent. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LpY-SE5SvNY/XrumPGtcbJI/AAAAAAAA1ts/OZWsiORV0ZUqfj4u_z440KBK0h9boHKUACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/S3.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1389">
These figures only run to the end of March, so expect to see more signs of duress in the figures in the coming months. 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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Mortgage arrears remaining flat: Pete Wargent

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<div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
In the month of March, the import bill declined by $0.5bn, down by 1.5%, to $34.4bn. Weakness in the month was driven by volatility in transport equipment (both capital and consumer) - stripping this out, imports rose by 0.7% in March.
The export detail remains volatile, with temporary supply disruptions a factor. In the month of March, metal ores slumped by $1.2bn, largely as anticipated, as iron ore shipments were delayed by Cyclone Veronica. Coal exports rose by $0.8bn, on a rebound in volumes, while gold fell back by $0.6bn, off a high base.
For the March quarter, the ABS advise that the trade surplus widened to $14.2bn from $8.6bn in Q4, an improvement of $5.6bn.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/5/7/trade%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/7/trade%201.jpg" alt="">
Key to this development was higher commodity prices, which boosted export earnings. The terms of trade increased in the order of 3% in the quarter, we estimate.
Export earnings in Q1 rose by a little over 3.5%, while the import bill actually shrank, down by 1.4%.
Our preliminary calculations suggest that: export volumes expanded modestly in the quarter, up by almost 0.5%, with a sharp rebound in gold off a low base a key positive; and imports were soft in the quarter, contracting by almost 1.5%, against the backdrop of patchy domestic demand across the private sector.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/5/7/trade%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/7/trade%202.jpg" alt="">
On these preliminary calculations, real net exports likely added to activity in Q1, potentially in the order of 0.3ppts to 0.4ppts. This is an upside surprise to our forecast of +0.1ppt – albeit largely driven by falling imports (a sign of domestic weakness) rather than by strength in exports.
Such an outcome represents a turnaround from the December quarter 2018, when net exports subtracted 0.2ppts from activity as export volumes declined by 0.7%, dented by the impact of the drought and temporary disruptions in the resources sector.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/5/7/trade%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/7/trade%203.jpg" alt="">
Key points:
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<div class="layoutArea">
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•In March, the trade surplus remained elevated at $4.9bn, only down a little from a record high of $5.1bn for February (revised up from $4.9bn).
•The March outcome exceeded expectations (market median $4.5bn and Westpac $4.2bn).
•Imports were the main surprise, falling by a further 1.5%, rather than rebounding by 1.0% as we anticipated.
•Exports fell but by somewhat more than anticipated, down by 1.8% v's a forecast -0.6%
•For the March quarter, the ABS advise that the trade surplus widened to $14.2bn from $8.6bn in Q4, an improvement of $5.6bn.
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
Andrew Hanlan is senior economist for Westpac and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/andrew-hanlan/3/222/430" target="_blank">here</a>. 
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Australia's trade account, surplus elevated at a near record high: Andrew Hanlan

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EXPERT OBSERVATION 
Last night would have been Budget night and the Australian Treasurer would have been announcing budget surpluses. Of course, coronavirus intervened, and the surpluses rightly had to be sacrificed to support Australian households, businesses and jobs. And it makes no sense to provide detailed budget forecasts given the extreme uncertainty about the impact on the economy and hence the budget for the coronavirus shutdown. So, the Treasurer has provided a statement to Parliament on the economic impact of the crisis, updated budget numbers will be provided in June and the Budget itself has been delayed to October.
As the economic impact of the crisis is well known I won’t go through that again here except to note two things from the Treasurer’s statement. First, more than 5.5 million Australian workers are now covered by the JobKeeper wage subsidy program which is coming close to the Government’s initial estimate that it would cover 6 million. Second, the Treasurer reiterated that the best way to pay back debt is through productivity enhancing reforms focussed on workforce training and education, infrastructure, cutting red tape, taxation and industrial relations reform. So, reform to help the economy recover post coronavirus will likely be the key focus in the October Budget.
This note looks at our own projections for the budget deficit, the impact on Australia’s net public debt and whether it’s affordable.
Budget deficit projections
The next table shows our rough budget deficit projections, taking the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook projections from last December as the starting point.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/5/14/1.png" alt="">
Under “policy changes” we have allowed for the three policy support packages announced through March, the health package announced in March, various industry support packages including that for childcare and bushfire spending. These are dominated by the $130bn JobKeeper program and are concentrated in this financial year and next, particularly for the period out to September. While the reopening of the economy may be coming a bit earlier than the Government had allowed for, we assume that the Government redirects some of the JobKeeper program from those who may no longer need it, to those who do, such that the full $130bn is still spent. In total and allowing for state fiscal stimulus this is resulting in a 10.6% of GDP fiscal stimulus for this calendar year, which swamps the stimulus seen in the GFC (and rightly so because the GFC posed a much smaller threat to the economy).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/5/14/2.png" alt="">
The hit to the economy will mean a hit to government revenue and increased spending demands under some existing spending programs and this is shown in the line called “parameter changes.” This is a guesstimate at present, because we are yet to get a firm handle on the size of the hit to the economy and how quickly it might recover. But the negative impact on the budget is likely to be bigger next financial year than this financial year because unemployment will average far more next financial year (around 8.5%) than this financial year (around 6.3%) and that provides a guide to lost Federal revenue and increased expenses.
Put simply, the Government’s necessary fiscal support response and the hit to the budget flowing from the hit to the economy will see the budget deficit blow out to around $130bn this year and $200bn next financial year, before falling sharply from 2021-22, as support programs end and the economy recovers.
This would see the budget deficit as a share of GDP peak at around 10% of GDP in 2020-21, which would be its highest since World War 2.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/5/14/3.png" alt="">
Spread over several years, this will add nearly 20% of GDP to Australia’s public debt.
But can we afford the surge in the deficit and debt?
It’s not ideal, but it is affordable. First, it needs to be stressed that the stimulus is absolutely necessary. If the Government hadn’t imposed the lockdown the healthcare system could have been overwhelmed resulting in many more deaths than the 97 recorded so far. Australia has seen 4 deaths per million people, but the UK and Italy have seen around 500 deaths per million and if that had occurred in Australia it would mean the deaths of around 12,500 people. And if the Government along with the RBA and state governments had not moved to protect jobs, businesses and incomes, the prospective hit to the economy from the lockdown would be far greater, with a much slower recovery in prospect (and probably an even bigger blow out in the budget and public debt). Looked at another way the 10% or so hit to the economy this half year required a similarly sized stimulus program to offset it.
Second, it makes sense for the public sector to borrow from households and businesses at a time when they are stuck at home and can’t spend due to the shutdown or won’t spend due to uncertainty, and for the Government to give the borrowed funds to help those businesses and individuals that are directly impacted. Using the funds to subsidise wages was a very smart move as it keeps people employed, keeps them linked to their employer and helps minimize confidence zapping unemployment headlines.
Third, the support programs have been designed to support the economy when they are most likely needed – in the June and September quarters – and to phase down thereafter as is apparent in the table above showing policy stimulus falling sharply from 2021-22. So, under current law we have not seen a permanent step jump higher in government spending. This contrasts with what seemed to happen post the GFC
Fourth, Australia’s net public debt is relatively low at 23% of GDP in comparison with the US at 84%, the Eurozone at 69% and Japan at 154%. See the next chart. And even with the projected budget deficit adding 17% of GDP to public debt by 2021, according to IMF projections Australia’s net public debt will remain relatively small at around 40% of GDP in two years’ time. So, Australia has far greater scope to do fiscal stimulus than other comparable countries.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/5/14/4.png" alt="">
Fifth, the cost of borrowing for the Federal Government is very low at just 0.25% for three years and 0.95% for ten years. Of course, this is partly being facilitated by the RBA buying bonds in the secondary market, although even if it weren’t bond yields would be low anyway reflecting the massive hit to the economy from the shutdown.
And the odd thing about the RBA holding more Government bonds is that much of the interest paid on the bonds by the Government to the RBA will flow back to the Government as a dividend.
Finally, the Australian Government is borrowing to finance the deterioration in the budget deficit in Australian dollars and given the turnaround in Australia’s balance of payments from a large current account deficit to a surplus or around balance in recent years, it’s not as if we are dependent on foreign creditors risking some sort of foreign currency crisis.
The blow out in the Australian Government’s budget deficit and public debt is not great. But it’s a necessary price Australia has to pay to minimise the loss of life from the virus and at the same time minimise the hit to people’s livelihoods from the shutdown. In terms of getting the debt back down, a temporary deficit levy would be preferable to tax hikes or the cancelation of tax cuts. But I agree with the Treasurer that the best approach to getting debt back down is to grow the economy aided by a reinvigorated economic reform agenda.
Dr Shane Oliver is Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital
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The incoming budget deficit and public debt: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Large falls in consumption-based spending post COVID-19 containment measures continued into May and across most industries (with some exceptions such as Construction), although the pace of decline looks to have stabilised.
Business payment inflows however have weakened further across most industries, and remain deeply negative in key parts of the economy (particularly Accommodation &amp; Food Services).
Consumption-based spending has stabilised in recent weeks, but is still down some 15% overall since the start of the year.
The rate of decline in spending has slowed in all states and territories, with the heaviest falls since the start of the year now in the ACT.
By industry sector, consumption spending over the year to date is down most in Administration &amp; Support Services, including Travel Agents (-88.9%), Accommodation &amp; Food Services (-56.0%) and Health Care &amp; Social Assistance (-40.3%).
Spending has grown in a handful of industries - Construction (28.3%), Utilities (7.2%) and Retail Trade (1.9%).
Some sub-industries have seen solid spending growth including Internet Publishing &amp; Broadcasting (39.9%), Construction Services (23.4%) and Gambling (22.4%). But some - Motion Picture &amp; Sound Recording Activities (-98.3%), Administration Services (-90.1%) and Other Transport (-88.2%) - are down heavily.
Business payment inflows into NAB merchants have also fallen sharply.
Business payment inflows into NAB merchants fell in May (-8.6%), after growing in the first 4 months of the year.
Inflows into Corporates were positive but have halved since April, and are falling for small, medium and large firms.
By industry, inflows are still falling most in Arts &amp; Recreation Services (particularly Amusement &amp; Other Activities and Sports &amp; Physical Recreation) and in Accommodation &amp; Food Services (particularly clubs), but at a slower rate. Inflows however rose sharply in Manufacturing (particularly in Pulp &amp; Paper Manufacturing).
ALAN OSTER is the NAB Group Chief Economist
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