<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/far-east-consortium">Far East Consortium</a>’s 640 Bourke Street stands as a testament to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developments/melbourne-vic-3000">Melbourne</a>’s ability to bridge its storied past with a bold vision for the future.&nbsp;

Rising above the heritage-listed Eliza Tinsley building, the development reflects a broader shift toward adaptive reuse in the city, where historical assets are retained and reinterpreted as part of new residential development.

Designed by <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/640-bourke-street-melbourne-640-bourke-street-melbourne-vic-3000">640 Bourke Street</a> incorporates the Eliza Tinsley building as its foundation, housing a grand gallery and lobby space that serve as both a functional and symbolic centrepiece. The heritage façade informs the tower’s design, creating a connection between Melbourne’s past and its contemporary skyline.

"It's a significant asset and wants to be celebrated and experienced by all residents every single time they go in and out of the building," Rothelowman Principal Stuart Marsland said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=365684]

Above this historic base, the 68-storey tower will deliver just over 600 residences, a notable reduction from earlier schemes, reflecting a deliberate move toward larger-format apartments and a stronger owner-occupier focus.

Unlike traditional CBD developments that prioritised investor stock, 640 Bourke Street has been repositioned to respond to changing buyer expectations.

"The discussion was all around making 640 Bourke Street the best residence to live in, to be much more focused on the people in the building rather than people looking at the building," Marsland explained.&nbsp;

This shift is evident in the development’s interiors, which emphasise practical luxury with spacious layouts, high ceilings, and floor-to-ceiling windows framing sweeping views of Melbourne and Port Phillip Bay.&nbsp;

“What it's meant for 640 Bourke is we've actually reduced the number of apartments. We've increased the overall size of the apartments. We don't have any studios in here, and what that does for a project is it elevates it," Lauren Sheldon, Far East Consortium’s Director of Sales and Marketing, said.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=365687]

Rothelowman Associate Jun Chang added, "We were given the opportunity to be more generous. The apartments became bigger and squarer than any other apartments which had been designed in the CBD before that."&nbsp;

Amenities spanning more than 3,000 sqm across multiple levels further reinforce this focus on resident experience. These include a pool, gym, co-working areas, and a range of hospitality-inspired spaces such as a whisky lounge, library, and private dining rooms, many drawing reference from traditional bathhouses and Melbourne’s laneway culture.

"We wanted to make both the pool and the gym area to be absolutely destinational, and when you traverse across to these spaces, there is a gentle familiarity to the beautiful notions of the hammams and the Roman baths, a gentle nod to history," Chang noted.

At street level, the project contributes to the ongoing transformation of the western CBD, with upgrades to Langs Lane and the introduction of retail, hospitality, and gallery spaces designed to activate the precinct and strengthen its connection to the surrounding city fabric.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=365689]

The location places residents within walking distance of Southern Cross Station, Flagstaff Gardens, Queen Victoria Market, and the Docklands waterfront, positioning the development within a rapidly evolving inner-city neighbourhood.

"We believe it's the best site left in the city of Melbourne," Craig Williams, Executive Director at Far East Consortium, said.&nbsp;

640 Bourke Street is Far East Consortium’s 14th building in Melbourne’s western CBD.

"A very elegant designed building. It's going to be a Melbourne statement for many, many years to come."

One-bedroom apartments are priced from around $640,000, with 640 Bourke Street targeting completion in 2029.

Renders shown are Artist's Impressions correct as of May 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=509]

Joel Robinson

Heritage-led design anchors Far East Consortium’s 640 Bourke St, Melbourne

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD Group</a> has set a new residential price record in Queensland with the $30 million sale of the penthouse at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/one-burleigh-88-the-esplanade-burleigh-heads-qld-4220">ONE Burleigh</a> development in Burleigh Heads.

The sale equates to around $37,500 per sqm.

The two-level, 800 sqm penthouse, featuring five bedrooms, five bathrooms, five car spaces, and a private infinity pool overlooking the Pacific Ocean, was acquired by a Gold Coast-based entrepreneur, highlighting continued demand for ultra-premium beachfront product.

Selling agent Freddie Tehle of PRD Burleigh Heads said the result reflects tightening supply of high-quality, large-format apartments in Burleigh.

“There’s very limited opportunity to secure this level of scale and absolute beachfront position in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/burleigh-heads-qld-4220">Burleigh Heads</a>,” Tehle said.

“Buyers are increasingly seeking apartments that genuinely replace a standalone home, and this penthouse delivers that with its size, privacy, and direct ocean frontage.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146358 project_image_fid=323057]

The sale comes as construction progresses on ONE Burleigh, a boutique development of 17 full-floor residences at 88 The Esplanade, scheduled for completion in early 2027.

Developed by MAYD Group and designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/mas-architecture-studio">MAS Architecture</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/sici-design">Sici Design</a>, the project has been positioned as a collection of house-sized beachfront apartments, each occupying an entire floor with around 381 sqm of internal and external living space.

When construction commenced, MAYD director Todd Mould pointed to the long-term resilience of premium coastal real estate as a key driver behind the project.

“Real estate, particularly at the premium end, remains one of the most resilient and proven long-term investment avenues,” Mould said.

“Our ambition is that anyone who buys a MAYD-built product can genuinely feel the care, craftsmanship and commitment we bring to every detail.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146358 project_image_fid=323055]

Each residence has been configured with four bedrooms, multiple living zones, a private office, and expansive ocean-facing terraces. Interiors draw on a restrained material palette, including travertine stone, timber joinery, and integrated premium appliances.

Interior designer Sici Design said the approach was to reflect the project’s coastal setting through both materiality and spatial planning.

“ONE Burleigh is our vision of luxury living, designed to bring the essence of Burleigh Heads' vibrant coastal beauty into an unparalleled residential experience.”

Residents will have access to a suite of wellness-focused amenities, including pools, sauna facilities, and dedicated relaxation spaces, reflecting a broader shift toward lifestyle-driven apartment design on the Gold Coast.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146358 project_image_fid=323052]

The project occupies a southern Esplanade site with uninterrupted beachfront frontage, an increasingly rare offering in Burleigh Heads, free from the Norfolk Pines that line much of the coastline and often limit direct ocean outlook.

Mould said the design intent was to balance that outlook with a sense of retreat.

“Living at ONE Burleigh is about how your day naturally unfolds, morning light across the ocean, coffee on the balcony, and being in Burleigh but elevated above the noise.”

The result further reinforces Burleigh Heads’ emergence as one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held and supply-constrained beachfront markets, where boutique, owner-occupier-focused developments are increasingly setting new price benchmarks.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=146358]

MAYD Group sets Queensland record with $30 million penthouse sale at ONE Burleigh in Burleigh Heads

Apartment developers in the Gold Coast are finding new, creative ways to differentiate themselves from competing projects, as new supply starts to flow through up and down the Coast.

Developer BIG Projects brought in the renowned Sydney-based design studio YSG Studio to craft the interiors for The Frederick, BIG Projects' new Mermaid Beach project and YSG Studio's first move into the multi-residential development space.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5346]

It was a strategic move for BIG Projects to bring in a Sydney eye to the development.

“Our role is to give our design partners the space and freedom to explore,” says Matt Barrett, Director of BIG Projects.

“We wanted YSG Studio to capture the essence of Nobby’s, to design a building that embraces life, light and connection, while creating a genuine sense of place.”

There are only 39 apartments in The Frederick, including a striking beach house, just 100 metres from the booming Nobby Beach precinct.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5347]

Yasmine Ghoniem, Director of YSG Studio, says their vision&nbsp;for The Frederick "reinvents coastal living."

“Nobby’s has such an iconic energy, it’s one of those rare pockets of the Gold Coast where the community, the beach, and the streets all feel connected,” Ghoniem says.

"Responding to the neighbouring coastline, soothing curves add a relaxing regional overlay, while unique detailing really sets it apart. It’s a place that feels lived in from the moment you step inside.”

A standout feature of The Frederick is its rooftop terrace, an uncommon inclusion for a boutique, low-rise building, where amenity is typically concentrated at ground level.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5360]

Positioned to capture panoramic views from the hinterland to the ocean, the rooftop has been designed as a series of intimate zones. It includes a pool, sauna, sun decks, workspaces and dedicated entertaining areas.

“The rooftop was conceived as a collection of spaces where residents can unwind and connect, an extension of the Nobby’s lifestyle,” Barrett says.

Architecture for the project was led by Plus Studio, with landscape design by LDG Landscape Architecture.

SRQ Projects Director Nick Clydsdale, who is handling sales at The Frederick, says the majority of enquiry is coming from South East QLD and Victorian buyers who have been actively searching between Broadbeach and Mermaid Beach for some time.

"They’ve reviewed a number of projects, however this one has stood out for its unique detailing and compelling design,"&nbsp;Clydsdale says.

Site demolition is slated for this month, with construction commencing soon after. BIG Projects is targeting a late 2027 completion.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=110588]

Sydney’s YSG Studio makes Gold Coast multi-residential debut with BIG Projects at The Frederick

Melbourne-based property developer ALTA Property has this week achieved planning approval for the adaptive re-use of a former commercial tower into a $200 million, 169-apartment project at 10 Queens Road, one of the last developable sites along the Albert Park Lake-fronting boulevard.&nbsp;

Set within one of Melbourne’s most sought-after precincts and designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser and Partners</a>, the illustrious building will offer unparalleled views across Albert Park Lake, Port Phillip Bay and Melbourne CBD.&nbsp;

The mix of 1, 2 and 3-bedroom residences will be complemented by a ground-floor amenity featuring private dining, a lounge bar, gym and wellness spaces, co-working, outdoor communal gardens, and retail.&nbsp;

The 17-storey building is a masterclass in adaptive re-use, with the existing commercial building’s façade, shell and internal structure to be retained, before high-end residences are built from the ground up in a newly built Albert Park facing addition to the building.&nbsp;

Sitting atop the building will be two 320+sqm penthouses with private rooftop terraces, which are expected to be priced between $9 - $11 million.&nbsp;

<img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa11211b-5581-43f9-940c-fc84d30a0e61" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/C_04.png?VersionId=Yhf5p_1EgGDu_zOIMFgvA8Ug8j3sTFQs" />

Architecturally, the building will feature a curved, geometric façade that celebrates and elevates the existing structure, with warm, muted tones which were selected to extend the materiality of the existing building rather than contrast it.&nbsp;

Interiors will bring together three metre high ceilings with waffle concrete in some spaces, natural timber, granite and Australian materials, culminating in crafted, generous and considered spaces that are defined by authenticity.&nbsp;

The adaptive re-use means that the Queens Road project will be a sustainability led, high-quality finished product, with a 62% saving in carbon emissions by re-using the existing structure rather than knocking it down and rebuilding.&nbsp;

ALTA Property was launched by Nigel Givoni in 2023, bringing over 25 years of experience in multi level residential delivery.&nbsp;

Melbourne’s property market growth is currently led by apartments. According to RPM VIC Apartments &amp; Townhomes Market Report (April 2026), units are outpacing houses, especially in the middle ring suburbs where median prices hit $757,500 – a four-year high that represents 2.9 percent growth quarter-on-quarter.&nbsp;

<img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="647e13d7-b4bc-433a-9bc9-fe3c3dd4f2ec" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/V_06.png?VersionId=ou4NUCWUgA3NAy.6CQJlEdKX50j3dOk6" />

For ALTA Property Founder Nigel Givoni, this performance speaks to the confidence he has in the Melbourne market.&nbsp;

“Queens Road represents a rare opportunity to continue to shape our presence in the Melbourne market.,"&nbsp;Givoni says.

"With a considered project team and a premier site along one of the city’s most sought-after boulevards, we look forward to contributing to the fabric of this established address.

“Other Australian markets are getting a lot of attention, but I believe the depth of value in Melbourne is being overlooked. The fundamentals are strong, population growth is steady and, based on our preliminary conversations with a leading builder, construction costs are beginning to normalise, creating further opportunity."

Givoni says the project is a&nbsp;highly considered example of adaptive re-use, delivering quality, high-end residences, premium hotel-inspired amenities and an architecturally striking façade, all achieved without the need to remove the existing structure.

"We are really looking forward to the market’s response,” he said.&nbsp;

ALTA Property to deliver $200 million Queens Road apartment tower

Construction is set to begin at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/orchard-mews-glen-iris-18-scott-grove-glen-iris-vic-3146">Orchard Mews</a> in Glen Iris, with&nbsp;PC Whitehall &amp; Sons&nbsp;now appointed as the townhome development moves into its next phase.

The development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/montcoeur">MontCoeur</a>,&nbsp;located at 18 Scott Grove, is now around 30 per cent sold, with completion targeted for late-2027.

Orchard Mews comprises a curated collection of three- and four-bedroom customisable townhomes, positioned within one of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>’ more tightly held residential streets. The low-density project has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo</a>, bringing together a team known for high-end residential projects across Melbourne.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366285]

The development is defined by its focus on flexible living and long-term usability. Each residence includes multiple living zones and a customisable multipurpose room, allowing buyers to tailor spaces to suit changing needs, whether as a home office, additional bedroom, wellness area or entertainment space.

Architecturally, the townhomes emphasise natural light and spatial volume, with dual-aspect layouts and double-height living areas incorporated into the design. Interiors feature natural stone benchtops, premium appliances, and a neutral material palette intended to support everyday functionality rather than statement-driven finishes.

All residences are all-electric and include private lifts and secure double garages, reflecting a broader shift toward sustainability and future-focused housing in Melbourne’s established suburbs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366277]

Outdoor connections are also central to the offering, with a mix of private courtyards and terraces extending internal living spaces and integrating with the landscaped surrounds.

The Scott Grove address places Orchard Mews within close proximity to some of Melbourne’s key lifestyle and education amenities, including Scotch College, Sacré Cœur, Cabrini Hospital and the retail hub of Chadstone. Public transport access is also nearby, with trams and Gardiner Station providing connectivity to the CBD and surrounding suburbs.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150128]

Construction to commence at luxury Glen Iris townhome project, Orchard Mews

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
A freehold Shute Harbour waterfront site in Queensland's Whitsunday Islands has been snapped up for $2.65 million.
The development site at <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://raywhitewhitsunday.com.au/properties/sold-commercial/qld/shute-harbour-4802/other/2257179" target="_blank">3344 Shute Harbour Road</a> is on two titles totalling 8,199sqm.
The property was offered via an expressions of interest campaign and was sold by Andrew Burke of Ray White Special Projects Queensland, and Mark Beale, Principal of Ray White Whitsunday.
The asset received six offers during the campaign and they were from a mix of marine industry, land bankers and residential developers, Burke said.
“The vendor was a local businessman who previously had the site used as a hotel before Cyclone Debbie in 2017 destroyed the buildings, and with retirement on the horizon, they decided to sell.
“The buyer was from regional NSW but was familiar with the location as they frequently holiday nearby," Bruke said. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/5/25/3344%20Shute%20Harbour%20Rd%20Aerials-8.jpg" alt="">
The Whitsundays offered a collection of beaches surrounded by waters decorated with coral gardens.
"Shute Harbour is commonly described as the natural harbour location south east of Airlie Beach. It contains a pocket of development isolated from the centre of Airlie Beach by a significant national park," ” Beale said.
Zoned mixed use, the site offers opportunities for residential, tourist accommodation, business, retail or service industry.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Whitsunday waterfront site sells for $2.65 million

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Job ads were down by -16.4 per cent or -18,400 in April, on a trend basis. It's comfortably the largest fall since the series began in January 2006.
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-q35jEtsikg4/XsSE29lhhnI/AAAAAAAA1zY/rzBpzl5sB6M43RJ-2BIFn8jzFyj6QaTTACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-q35jEtsikg4/XsSE29lhhnI/AAAAAAAA1zY/rzBpzl5sB6M43RJ-2BIFn8jzFyj6QaTTACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1409"></a></div>
In New South Wales, vacancies have gone from 70k at the cyclical peak to 22k.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LfE8GC9eDfQ/XsSE3NbSCiI/AAAAAAAA1zc/miEm0vt-ge0IAGuM0GaOsecptiXgih29wCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="1386">
<div>Dreadful numbers, which suggest that the unemployment rate will roughly go from 5 to 10 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia has done a wonderful job of flattening the curve of COVID-19 cases, to the extent that there are only 9 (nine) cases remaining in ICU. </div>
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RCwkp7NkKL4/XsSFV9guKUI/AAAAAAAA1zo/UwIbpjtg2T4NdZQa8L3pvwxmsgddJaadQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1409">
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Time to reopen the economy, and then the borders...with quarantine.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sensibly managed, Australia will be in a stronger position than ever to welcome the world's best and brightest. </div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Largest fall in job ads ever recorded: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
As Australia begins to relax its COVID-19 restrictions there is understandable debate about how quickly that should proceed, and whether lockdowns even made sense in Australia in the first place.
The sceptics arguing for more rapid relaxation of containment measures point to the economic costs of lockdowns and appeal to the cold calculus of <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cost-benefitanalysis.asp" target="_blank">cost-benefit analysis</a> to conclude that the lives saved by lockdowns don’t justify the economic costs incurred to do so.
Their numbers don’t stack up.
To be able to weigh the value of a life against the economic costs of forgone output from lost jobs and business closures, requires placing a dollar value on one person’s life. This number is called the value of a statistical life.
In Australia, the Government generally uses a value of A$<a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/Value_of_Statistical_Life_guidance_note.pdf" target="_blank">4.9 million</a>. The United States uses a value of <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-value-of-life/" target="_blank">US$10 million</a>.
What are the benefits of the shutdown? This is the value of lives saved plus any indirect economic or health benefits. Lives saved are those excess lives that would be lost if government relied on a strategy that allowed enough people to get infected to result in so-called <a href="https://www.webmd.com/lung/what-is-herd-immunity#1" target="_blank">herd immunity</a>.
How many extra lives would be lost under this second strategy?
To answer this, we need assumptions about the virus.
<h2>The lives lost if we let it rip</h2>
The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/europe/coronavirus-R0-explainer?referringSource=articleShare" target="_blank">initial reproduction rate</a> of the virus, R0, was thought to be about 2.5. This means that every 2 people infected were likely to infect another 5; producing an average infection rate per person of 2.5.
Herd immunity for COVID-19 is estimated to require roughly 60% of the population be infected before the <a href="https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve" target="_blank">curve begins to flatten</a> and the peak infections fall.
This happens when the reproduction rate, R0, falls below one. Because of subsequent new infections, the total number infected over the course of the pandemic is closer to 90%.
Given a population of 25 million people and assuming a fatality rate of 1%, this would produce 225,000 deaths.
An assumption of a 1% fatality rate is low from the perspective of those making decisions at the onset of the pandemic, at a time when crucial and reliable data were missing.
<h2>Those lives are valued at $1.1 trillion</h2>
Converting those fatalities to dollars using the Australian value of a statistical life of A$4.9 million per life yields a cost of A$1.1 trillion.
In rough terms, that’s the amount we have gained by shutting down the economy, provided deaths do not skyrocket when lockdown measures are relaxed and borders re-open.
It is about three fifths of one year’s gross domestic product, which is about A$1.9 trillion.
What are the costs of the shutdown?
These are the direct economic costs from reduced economic activity plus the indirect social, medical, and economic costs, all measured in terms of national income.
A starting point is to take the lost income that occurs from the recession that has probably already begun.
<h2>What will the shutdown cost?</h2>
Let’s assume that the downturn results in a 10% drop in gross domestic product over 2020 and 2021 – about $180 billion – consistent with IMF forecasts of a fall in GDP of 6.7% in 2020 and a sharp rebound of 6.1% growth in 2021, and comparable to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s forecasts in the latest <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2020/may/" target="_blank">Statement on Monetary Policy</a>.
Comparing this cost from shutting down – about $180 billion – to the benefit of $1,103 billion – makes the case for shutdown clear.
But this calculation grossly overestimates the costs of the shutdown.
The recession is a consequence of both the shutdown and the pandemic.
We need to attribute costs to each.
Most of the economic costs of the recession are likely to be due to the pandemic itself rather the shutdown.
<h2>Many costs would have been borne anyway</h2>
Even before the shutdown, economic activity was in decline.
Both in Australia and internationally air travel, restaurant bookings and a range of other activities had fallen sharply.
They were the result of a “private shutdown” that commenced before the mandated government shutdown.
Even in a country such as Sweden, where a shutdown has not been mandatory, there has been a more than 75% reduction in movement in central Stockholm and a more than 90% reduction in travel to some domestic holiday destinations.
To be generous, let’s assume the costs attributable to the government-mandated part of the shutdown are half of the total costs, making their cost A$90 billion.
In reality, they are likely to be less, one important study suggests <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.04630.pdf" target="_blank">much less</a>.
It is hard to imagine a much bigger private shutdown not taking place had the government decided to simply let the disease rip until its spread was slowed by herd immunity.
<h2>Support is not a cost</h2>
It is also important to note that the government’s spending of A$214 billion to support the economy during the shutdown is a transfer of resources from one part of society to another rather than a cost.
It creates neither direct costs nor benefits for society as a whole, other than the economic distortions coming from raising the revenue to service the spending.
With long-term government bond rates near 1% (less than inflation), the total cost of distortions is likely to be tiny.
Of course, this discussion simplifies what are incredibly complex social, health and economic questions. There are clearly further costs, from both relaxing restrictions and keeping them in place.
<h2>Other costs are not that big</h2>
These costs are worthy of serious study and should rightly be part of a comprehensive public policy discussion. But looked at through the lens of a cost-benefit analysis these combined effects are likely to be small relative to the value of preventing mass death.
Among them are the incidence of mental health problems and domestic violence under lockdowns. They are important concerns that should be addressed by targeted and well-designed programs.
Weighing against that is evidence that economic crises are associated with <a href="https://voxeu.org/article/economic-crises-and-mortality" target="_blank">declines</a> in overall mortality rates. 
While suicides rise, total mortality, including deaths from heart attacks and workplace and traffic accidents, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/02/coronavirus-economy-reopen-deaths-balance-analysis-159248" target="_blank">falls</a>.
In the specific case of this pandemic there is <a href="https://psyarxiv.com/3kfmh" target="_blank">survey evidence</a> based on respondents from 58 countries suggesting that strong government responses to the pandemic have been reducing worry and depression.
Also, we have to acknowledge that recessions and educational disruption have health and economic costs that are unequally spread.
The shutdown disproportionately impacts more-disadvantaged people including short-term casual workers, migrant workers, those with disabilities and the homeless.
<h2>The most-disadvantaged suffer, either way</h2>
This skewing will also be present in the herd immunity option. As New York City makes clear, a rapid spread of the disease also disproportionately impacts disadvantaged communities. One can only speculate about the disease burden should some of our remote indigenous communities get exposed.
To this we should add further achievements of the shutdown:
<ul>
<li>
elimination of mental trauma and grief from losing our loved ones
</li>
<li>
avoiding the costs of possible longer-term implications of the disease, which we still know little about
</li>
<li>
avoiding a collapse in the capacity of the health system to deal with other emergencies through the sheer numbers of COVID-19 infected combined with staff shortages due to illness
</li>
</ul>
Those advocating cost-benefit analysis of this kind have to apply the principle systematically. It is difficult to see how the total of these sorts of considerations on each side of the ledger could compare to the benefit of lives saved. They will be an order of magnitude, if not two, smaller.
<h2>$90 billion, versus $1.1 trillion</h2>
In the cold calculus of cost-benefit analysis, a highly pessimistic view of the economic costs of Australia’s shutdown comes to around $90 billion.
It is a small price to pay compared to the statistical value of lives the shutdown should save, around A$1.1 trillion.
It produces a simple message. The shutdown wins.
The question we now face is how quickly to relax restrictions. Here, too, there are costs and benefits, and we need to be mindful of the economic cost of a second-wave outbreak, plus mortality costs of disease spread before effective treatments or vaccine become available.
And in all of this bean counting, we should remember that putting a price tag on human life is sometimes unavoidable – such as when a doctor with access to only one ventilator has to choose between two patients.
But we shouldn’t mistake necessity for desirability. We should seek to avoid needing to make such wrenching choices whenever possible.
Dr Jen Schaefer of the Royal Children’s Hospital Melbourne assisted with the preparation of this piece.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138303/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bruce-preston-452859" target="_blank">Bruce Preston</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722" target="_blank">University of Melbourne</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-costs-of-the-shutdown-are-overestimated-theyre-outweighed-by-its-1-trillion-benefit-138303" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Costs of the shutdown are overestimated, they’re outweighed by its $1 trillion benefit

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EXPERT OBSERVER
New forecasts released today say new home building will fall by almost 50 per cent, putting half a million jobs at risk over the next year.
In 2018/19 the industry engaged over 1 million people to commence building almost 200,000 new homes. Next year we expect to start just 112,000 new homes leaving up to 500,000 jobs at risk.
The shock to the economy from the halting of overseas migration, the absence of student arrivals and uncertainty over the domestic economy will see the market at a lower point in December 2020, than it was during the 1990’s recession.
It will then continue to decline though 2021, even with the return of overseas students and migration.
This shock will reverberate through the residential building industry, up and down the supply chain. Employment in the sector is not expected to recover within the next two years.
The loss of the international students and migration creates a temporary imbalance in demand for rental accommodation. The 625,000 overseas students enrolled in Australian education institutions equates to demand for the past two years of apartment construction. It is not clear how many of these left in March or how many will return.
For the past 20 years Australia’s economic growth has been underscored by stable population growth.
The nature of this shock requires significant and ongoing support from policymakers in Australia and amongst our trading partners. The risk that insufficient support will produce a decade of deflation, depression and human hardship, is present.
This means that of all the concerns facing government right now, debt should not be at the top of the list.
JobKeeper plays a very important role in supporting workers directly impacted by industry shutdowns. The building industry has been fortunate to continue operating.
Many small builders will not be eligible for the program as the downturn will impact the sector most significantly from September 2020 when the majority of projects under construction are completed.
Restarting the economy and allowing students to return are also necessary steps to a full recovery.
Drawing forward housing demand can also play a role in alleviating the emerging shock to new home construction and the wider economy. Traditionally, Australia has done this through empowering consumers to build new homes.
With the caveat that there is a high degree of uncertainty around the outlook, the disruption to migration and the elevated rate of unemployment will weigh heavily on demand for residential building beyond 2020. In financial year terms, dwelling starts in 2019/20 are now expected to be down by 18.3 per cent compared with 2018/19, and starts are forecast to decline by a further 30.5 per cent in 2020/21.
If this transpires, the commencement of new homes will have fallen nearly 43 per cent from last year, to next.
Graham Wolfe is the Managing Director of the Housing Industry Association (HIA).
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Half a million Australian jobs are at risk: HIA's Graham Wolfe

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EXPERT OBSERVER
There are 3 key drivers of property prices.
<div>
(i) Supply - the rate of construction and the properties listed for sale on the market;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
(ii) Interest rates - the cost of borrowing; and</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
(iii) Population growth - immigration, natural population growth (births minus deaths), and interstate migration.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Or, as depicted in his infographic:</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JfAMyhsEwDU/XsC1SuAaGqI/AAAAAAAA1xE/oWHfOVu6Wt4Dg29nArHLDV26HjXIy8SaACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/FIN.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="445" data-original-width="791"></div>
 
<div>Source: Tim Boyle, Finalytics</div>
 
<div>People often state that the unemployment rate is critical, but this argument isn't backed up by any hard statistics. In fact the last couple of times the unemployment rate spiked housing prices soared the following year, as pointed out by Stuart Wemyss of ProSolution, Game of Mates author Dr. Cameron Murray, and others:</div>
 
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mGeIhomU-Rw/XsDARe3SG3I/AAAAAAAA1xg/AF7pCtVj6yImNusAc2_soCsN-9f2dwlHQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="423" data-original-width="738"></div>
 
<div>There's also an enormous fiscal stimulus washing through, comfortably dwarfing anything we've seen in recent decades. </div>
 
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SwOd64SloIQ/XsDAdNa9cVI/AAAAAAAA1xk/IA2iutyq4sE-ulOJVokqdP6KWZMNVqNCwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Stim.jpg" width="640" height="638" data-original-height="738" data-original-width="739"></div>
 Boyle's 3 drivers today In that context, here's what's happening with Boyle's 3 key drivers today. Supply is extremely tight at the moment. Dwelling construction is plunging towards 70-year lows and vendors aren't listing either. <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ituPSwbTdvU/XrNkMZcBltI/AAAAAAAA1lM/lSj4XGqL1Gcc-lP5wKWKzjVlXG5YWXJ-gCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CL2.jpg" width="640" height="386"> 
<div>Source: CoreLogic</div>
 Lending rates, meanwhile, are at the lowest level in modern history. <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HHbGid402-g/XrNlXdwQxnI/AAAAAAAA1lc/Fd54mmUYX1kJWedMT-5JdHyEbCZFOZD3ACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CL3.jpg" width="640" height="398"> 
<div>This effectively allows borrowers to take on bigger mortgages, as I showed in my recent post on lending trends. ANZ have just noted the same thing: <div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bGysfQwD18o/XsDAo9GSxRI/AAAAAAAA1xs/Vx2-pm8vZHE32TUM-20dz-8UmDRRD4DyQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/ANZ1.jpg" width="640" height="448" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1143"></div>
 The big unknown factor at this stage is population growth.
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>My base case expectation or scenario is that within the next few months the powerful interests such as the Property Council, Australia's universities, the airlines, Tourism Australia, and big business at the top end of town will have forced the government's hand to reopen the borders, albeit with a period of enforced quarantine.</div>
 
<div>As for the thesis that things will be totally different after COVID-19...well as a gallant but struggling home-schooler I reckon that's total garbage! People can't wait to get back and out to spend, socialise, travel, go to work, and holiday again.</div>
 It's just the way we're designed, we're pack animals. 
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-r9TZrsC6zMw/XsC1SYxsobI/AAAAAAAA1xA/_k9XLZBNywgB_0ApBK_96zfH9-jzlSPNACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/JT.jpg" width="640" height="308" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="747"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>And moreover, Australia will likely be seen as one of the safest and most desirable countries on earth in which to live.</div>
<div>
 PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
</div>
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The three drivers of property prices: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The key question for Hotspotting in putting together our reports in the current climate is this: among the locations that have strong long-term fundamentals supporting price growth, which ones are best set-up to withstand the forces of the Covid-19 shutdown?
We’re searching for places which have the credentials to do well in the short-term, in dealing with the impacts of virus crisis, as well as having the features that drive long-term growth.
As I see it, the key factors are:
1. The strength of the market pre-coronavirus
2. The level of vacancies going into the virus shutdown period
3. The make-up of the local economy and in particular where most of the jobs exist
4. The key components of population growth in that location
5. The level of spending on infrastructure
All of those elements are important, but perhaps the most important one in the short-term is the make-up of the local economy and which sectors provide the bulk of the jobs.
Let me give you an example: Albury-Wodonga, which straddles the border between NSW and Victoria, has one of strongest economies anywhere in regional Australia, it offers wonderful affordability and high rental yields – and, in the past 12 months, there’s been some pretty good price growth there.
But the key factor about Albury-Wodonga right now is where most of its employment exists.
The four biggest sectors that provide the most jobs in this city are: 1 hospitals and medical services; 2 supermarkets and food stores; 3 the military; and 4 aged care.
I can’t imagine a better situation in terms of sectors likely to be hiring rather than firing in the current climate than those.
So, right now, amid all the issues afflicting Australia because of the coronavirus, Albury-Wodonga is performing well in its economy and its property market.
Overall, what we know to be true is that regional Australia is much less impacted by the virus shutdown, generally speaking, than the major cities.
Clearly, regional cities where the economy is largely dependent on tourism will suffer. But most of the regional centres that interest us are not in that situation.
Most of the regional centres that are grabbing our attention have economies based on sectors that are doing well in the current situation, or are likely to do well as we exit the lockdown phase and head back towards normal - sectors like agriculture, viticulture and resources &amp; energy.
Among the capital cities, Adelaide property market is particularly well placed to emerge from the shutdown with prospects for growth.
Coming into the virus crisis, Adelaide was one of the leading capital city markets in the nation with the best prospects for growth.
The Autumn 2020 edition of the Price Predictor Index ranked Adelaide No.1 among the state and territory capital cities for the number of suburbs with rising sales activity, out-ranking both Melbourne and Sydney.
Adelaide is one of the nation’s most consistent property markets. It always delivers steady demand, underpinned by a solid local economy and helped by the exceptional value for money offered by its housing market.
Adelaide also had a very low vacancy rate heading into the shutdown period: an overall vacancy rate below 1% which means the city’s rental market is well-placed to absorb the extra rental stock coming into the market because of the impact of the virus shutdown.
The latest figures, to the beginning of April, show that even with the recent influx of new properties seeking tenants, its vacancy rate is still just 1.2% (the lowest among the capitals, equal with Canberra).
The city’s economy is in a strong position to recover well from the shutdown period.
Adelaide is the high-tech innovation capital of Australia and South Australia leads the nation in the production of alternative energy. It has been transitioning strongly from old-style manufacturing to the production of modern technology products.
One of the likely outcomes from the virus crisis is a revival of manufacturing in Australia and Adelaide is well-placed to benefit from that.
Adelaide also has strong sectors in education and medical services.
It has a state government which has been spending significant amounts on infrastructure – and has announced plans to fast-track shovel-ready infrastructure projects to lead the economic recovery on the other side of the shutdown period.
Overall, I see Adelaide as being one of the best capital cities in the nation for real estate investment with good prospects for future growth, as well as above-average rental yields.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Adelaide property market to emerge strong from COVID-19 shutdown: HotSpotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Commonwealth Bank reported a much lower home loan arrears profile as compared to many of its peers today.
144,000 borrowers opted to take mortgage holidays, according to the trading update, equating to $50 billion in mortgage balances. 
S&amp;P Global also reported that Prime SPIN mortgage arrears were flat in March 2020, with 30-day arrears unchanged at 1.41 per cent. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_45Io7Peg6E/XrumPFDZniI/AAAAAAAA1to/N14QcbHAMyQsttMIO1EJCxl4KT7jl4fRwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/S1.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1380">
There were minor increases in mortgage arrears in the most populous states, but these were offset by a decline in the Australian Capital Territory, where 30-plus day arrears declined to just 1.04 per cent. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IliIkf5vbLk/XrumPFe-0CI/AAAAAAAA1tk/tzLdj1PwqFYwBFikyIgD8Ho5pgy-AITyQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/S2.jpg" width="640" height="358" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1425">
Total 30-day arrears were higher for owner-occupiers, increasing to 1.73 per cent, but remained lower for investors at 1.46 per cent. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LpY-SE5SvNY/XrumPGtcbJI/AAAAAAAA1ts/OZWsiORV0ZUqfj4u_z440KBK0h9boHKUACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/S3.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1389">
These figures only run to the end of March, so expect to see more signs of duress in the figures in the coming months. 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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Mortgage arrears remaining flat: Pete Wargent

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<div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
In the month of March, the import bill declined by $0.5bn, down by 1.5%, to $34.4bn. Weakness in the month was driven by volatility in transport equipment (both capital and consumer) - stripping this out, imports rose by 0.7% in March.
The export detail remains volatile, with temporary supply disruptions a factor. In the month of March, metal ores slumped by $1.2bn, largely as anticipated, as iron ore shipments were delayed by Cyclone Veronica. Coal exports rose by $0.8bn, on a rebound in volumes, while gold fell back by $0.6bn, off a high base.
For the March quarter, the ABS advise that the trade surplus widened to $14.2bn from $8.6bn in Q4, an improvement of $5.6bn.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/5/7/trade%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/7/trade%201.jpg" alt="">
Key to this development was higher commodity prices, which boosted export earnings. The terms of trade increased in the order of 3% in the quarter, we estimate.
Export earnings in Q1 rose by a little over 3.5%, while the import bill actually shrank, down by 1.4%.
Our preliminary calculations suggest that: export volumes expanded modestly in the quarter, up by almost 0.5%, with a sharp rebound in gold off a low base a key positive; and imports were soft in the quarter, contracting by almost 1.5%, against the backdrop of patchy domestic demand across the private sector.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/5/7/trade%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/7/trade%202.jpg" alt="">
On these preliminary calculations, real net exports likely added to activity in Q1, potentially in the order of 0.3ppts to 0.4ppts. This is an upside surprise to our forecast of +0.1ppt – albeit largely driven by falling imports (a sign of domestic weakness) rather than by strength in exports.
Such an outcome represents a turnaround from the December quarter 2018, when net exports subtracted 0.2ppts from activity as export volumes declined by 0.7%, dented by the impact of the drought and temporary disruptions in the resources sector.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/5/7/trade%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/7/trade%203.jpg" alt="">
Key points:
<div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
•In March, the trade surplus remained elevated at $4.9bn, only down a little from a record high of $5.1bn for February (revised up from $4.9bn).
•The March outcome exceeded expectations (market median $4.5bn and Westpac $4.2bn).
•Imports were the main surprise, falling by a further 1.5%, rather than rebounding by 1.0% as we anticipated.
•Exports fell but by somewhat more than anticipated, down by 1.8% v's a forecast -0.6%
•For the March quarter, the ABS advise that the trade surplus widened to $14.2bn from $8.6bn in Q4, an improvement of $5.6bn.
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
Andrew Hanlan is senior economist for Westpac and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/andrew-hanlan/3/222/430" target="_blank">here</a>. 
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Australia's trade account, surplus elevated at a near record high: Andrew Hanlan

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EXPERT OBSERVATION 
Last night would have been Budget night and the Australian Treasurer would have been announcing budget surpluses. Of course, coronavirus intervened, and the surpluses rightly had to be sacrificed to support Australian households, businesses and jobs. And it makes no sense to provide detailed budget forecasts given the extreme uncertainty about the impact on the economy and hence the budget for the coronavirus shutdown. So, the Treasurer has provided a statement to Parliament on the economic impact of the crisis, updated budget numbers will be provided in June and the Budget itself has been delayed to October.
As the economic impact of the crisis is well known I won’t go through that again here except to note two things from the Treasurer’s statement. First, more than 5.5 million Australian workers are now covered by the JobKeeper wage subsidy program which is coming close to the Government’s initial estimate that it would cover 6 million. Second, the Treasurer reiterated that the best way to pay back debt is through productivity enhancing reforms focussed on workforce training and education, infrastructure, cutting red tape, taxation and industrial relations reform. So, reform to help the economy recover post coronavirus will likely be the key focus in the October Budget.
This note looks at our own projections for the budget deficit, the impact on Australia’s net public debt and whether it’s affordable.
Budget deficit projections
The next table shows our rough budget deficit projections, taking the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook projections from last December as the starting point.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/5/14/1.png" alt="">
Under “policy changes” we have allowed for the three policy support packages announced through March, the health package announced in March, various industry support packages including that for childcare and bushfire spending. These are dominated by the $130bn JobKeeper program and are concentrated in this financial year and next, particularly for the period out to September. While the reopening of the economy may be coming a bit earlier than the Government had allowed for, we assume that the Government redirects some of the JobKeeper program from those who may no longer need it, to those who do, such that the full $130bn is still spent. In total and allowing for state fiscal stimulus this is resulting in a 10.6% of GDP fiscal stimulus for this calendar year, which swamps the stimulus seen in the GFC (and rightly so because the GFC posed a much smaller threat to the economy).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/5/14/2.png" alt="">
The hit to the economy will mean a hit to government revenue and increased spending demands under some existing spending programs and this is shown in the line called “parameter changes.” This is a guesstimate at present, because we are yet to get a firm handle on the size of the hit to the economy and how quickly it might recover. But the negative impact on the budget is likely to be bigger next financial year than this financial year because unemployment will average far more next financial year (around 8.5%) than this financial year (around 6.3%) and that provides a guide to lost Federal revenue and increased expenses.
Put simply, the Government’s necessary fiscal support response and the hit to the budget flowing from the hit to the economy will see the budget deficit blow out to around $130bn this year and $200bn next financial year, before falling sharply from 2021-22, as support programs end and the economy recovers.
This would see the budget deficit as a share of GDP peak at around 10% of GDP in 2020-21, which would be its highest since World War 2.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/5/14/3.png" alt="">
Spread over several years, this will add nearly 20% of GDP to Australia’s public debt.
But can we afford the surge in the deficit and debt?
It’s not ideal, but it is affordable. First, it needs to be stressed that the stimulus is absolutely necessary. If the Government hadn’t imposed the lockdown the healthcare system could have been overwhelmed resulting in many more deaths than the 97 recorded so far. Australia has seen 4 deaths per million people, but the UK and Italy have seen around 500 deaths per million and if that had occurred in Australia it would mean the deaths of around 12,500 people. And if the Government along with the RBA and state governments had not moved to protect jobs, businesses and incomes, the prospective hit to the economy from the lockdown would be far greater, with a much slower recovery in prospect (and probably an even bigger blow out in the budget and public debt). Looked at another way the 10% or so hit to the economy this half year required a similarly sized stimulus program to offset it.
Second, it makes sense for the public sector to borrow from households and businesses at a time when they are stuck at home and can’t spend due to the shutdown or won’t spend due to uncertainty, and for the Government to give the borrowed funds to help those businesses and individuals that are directly impacted. Using the funds to subsidise wages was a very smart move as it keeps people employed, keeps them linked to their employer and helps minimize confidence zapping unemployment headlines.
Third, the support programs have been designed to support the economy when they are most likely needed – in the June and September quarters – and to phase down thereafter as is apparent in the table above showing policy stimulus falling sharply from 2021-22. So, under current law we have not seen a permanent step jump higher in government spending. This contrasts with what seemed to happen post the GFC
Fourth, Australia’s net public debt is relatively low at 23% of GDP in comparison with the US at 84%, the Eurozone at 69% and Japan at 154%. See the next chart. And even with the projected budget deficit adding 17% of GDP to public debt by 2021, according to IMF projections Australia’s net public debt will remain relatively small at around 40% of GDP in two years’ time. So, Australia has far greater scope to do fiscal stimulus than other comparable countries.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/5/14/4.png" alt="">
Fifth, the cost of borrowing for the Federal Government is very low at just 0.25% for three years and 0.95% for ten years. Of course, this is partly being facilitated by the RBA buying bonds in the secondary market, although even if it weren’t bond yields would be low anyway reflecting the massive hit to the economy from the shutdown.
And the odd thing about the RBA holding more Government bonds is that much of the interest paid on the bonds by the Government to the RBA will flow back to the Government as a dividend.
Finally, the Australian Government is borrowing to finance the deterioration in the budget deficit in Australian dollars and given the turnaround in Australia’s balance of payments from a large current account deficit to a surplus or around balance in recent years, it’s not as if we are dependent on foreign creditors risking some sort of foreign currency crisis.
The blow out in the Australian Government’s budget deficit and public debt is not great. But it’s a necessary price Australia has to pay to minimise the loss of life from the virus and at the same time minimise the hit to people’s livelihoods from the shutdown. In terms of getting the debt back down, a temporary deficit levy would be preferable to tax hikes or the cancelation of tax cuts. But I agree with the Treasurer that the best approach to getting debt back down is to grow the economy aided by a reinvigorated economic reform agenda.
Dr Shane Oliver is Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

The incoming budget deficit and public debt: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Large falls in consumption-based spending post COVID-19 containment measures continued into May and across most industries (with some exceptions such as Construction), although the pace of decline looks to have stabilised.
Business payment inflows however have weakened further across most industries, and remain deeply negative in key parts of the economy (particularly Accommodation &amp; Food Services).
Consumption-based spending has stabilised in recent weeks, but is still down some 15% overall since the start of the year.
The rate of decline in spending has slowed in all states and territories, with the heaviest falls since the start of the year now in the ACT.
By industry sector, consumption spending over the year to date is down most in Administration &amp; Support Services, including Travel Agents (-88.9%), Accommodation &amp; Food Services (-56.0%) and Health Care &amp; Social Assistance (-40.3%).
Spending has grown in a handful of industries - Construction (28.3%), Utilities (7.2%) and Retail Trade (1.9%).
Some sub-industries have seen solid spending growth including Internet Publishing &amp; Broadcasting (39.9%), Construction Services (23.4%) and Gambling (22.4%). But some - Motion Picture &amp; Sound Recording Activities (-98.3%), Administration Services (-90.1%) and Other Transport (-88.2%) - are down heavily.
Business payment inflows into NAB merchants have also fallen sharply.
Business payment inflows into NAB merchants fell in May (-8.6%), after growing in the first 4 months of the year.
Inflows into Corporates were positive but have halved since April, and are falling for small, medium and large firms.
By industry, inflows are still falling most in Arts &amp; Recreation Services (particularly Amusement &amp; Other Activities and Sports &amp; Physical Recreation) and in Accommodation &amp; Food Services (particularly clubs), but at a slower rate. Inflows however rose sharply in Manufacturing (particularly in Pulp &amp; Paper Manufacturing).
ALAN OSTER is the NAB Group Chief Economist
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