<p>South East Queensland developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a>’s entry into the Gold Coast apartment market has progressed from pipeline to market, with its Chevron Island project Bronze on Chevron now formally available to purchase ahead of a planned 2029 completion.</p>

<p>The 119-apartment development on Mawarra Street marks the Brisbane-headquartered builder-developer’s first residential play in the Gold Coast, following its expansion south from Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> comprises a mix of two-, three- and four-bedroom residences, with pricing starting from just over $1.5 million. The project is being delivered under Gardner Vaughan’s fully integrated model, with the group acting as both developer and builder, a structure it has consistently applied across its South East Queensland portfolio.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367182]</p>

<p>Architecture has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jeremy-ferrier-landscape-design">Jeremy Ferrier</a>. The building presents as a single-tower scheme, with a focus on maximising outlook across both the Surfers Paradise skyline and the Nerang River.</p>

<p>Apartments have been planned with open-plan living zones extending to generous balconies, a response to the site’s dual-aspect positioning between river and ocean. Interiors follow a restrained coastal palette, with two colour schemes offered, and an emphasis on natural light and cross-ventilation.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367181]</p>

<p>Resident amenity is concentrated across more than 1,250 sqm and includes a resort-style pool, gym, yoga lawn and rooftop entertaining areas. A function space with catering facilities forms part of the upper-level offering, alongside north- and south-facing outdoor areas.</p>

<p>Ground level will incorporate two retail tenancies, intended to extend the existing village character of the surrounding streets.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367200]</p>

<p>The project sits within walking distance of Thomas Drive’s established dining strip, while maintaining proximity to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Surfers Paradise</a> beach and broader Gold Coast amenity. The location, positioned on Chevron Island between the river and coastline, has increasingly attracted mid- to high-density development in recent years as the precinct evolves beyond its low-rise origins.</p>

<p>Gardner Vaughan’s move into the Gold Coast was first signalled in 2025, with the group identifying the region as a natural extension of its operations. Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge described the expansion as both “strategic and natural”, citing demand for well-designed apartments in lifestyle-driven markets.</p>

<p>Construction is expected to complete in early 2029.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]</p>


Joel Robinson

Gardner Vaughan brings Bronze on Chevron to market as Gold Coast debut

<p data-end="198" data-start="61">One of the penthouses at Lily Lane, the latest stage of Carrington Place by Ellipse Property, has set a new local apartment price record.</p>

<p data-end="350" data-start="200">The four-bedroom residence, purchased by a local downsizer, sold for $5.75 million—around 75 per cent higher than the previous record of $3.3 million.</p>

<p data-end="461" data-start="352">Over 40 per cent of the first release of apartments at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lily-lane-at-carrington-place-castle-hill-32-carrington-road-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Lily Lane</a> have already been snapped up just six weeks since it launched to the market.</p>

<p data-end="461" data-start="352">&nbsp;</p>

<p>Located at 32 Carrington Road, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/castle-hill-nsw-2154">Castle Hill</a> and designed by award-winning architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ptw">PTW</a>, Lily Lane is directly opposite the Hills Showground Metro station. It offers a total 213 units over two 12-storey towers - a mix of 67 one-bedroom, 100 two-bedroom and 46 three-bedroom apartments - with a ground-floor retail offering.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=368352]</p>

<p>Blake Schulze, National Director – Residential at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/colliers">Colliers</a>, says around 44 per cent of buyers are&nbsp;owner occupiers, with 35 per cent being investors and 21 per cent first homebuyers.</p>

<p>“Developments of this calibre are very rare in the Hills District, and Lily Lane’s sales success demonstrates the depth of demand for over-sized apartments that genuinely compete with freestanding homes," Schulze says.</p>

<p>"We are seeing particular demand from downsizers who want to remain in the area but transition into spacious, high-quality apartment living."</p>

<p>On the penthouse sale, it says it shows buyers&nbsp;are prepared to pay a premium for scale, quality, and direct access to the Metro.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=368351]</p>

<p>One-bedroom apartments are sized from 50-72 sqm with prices starting at $745,000, while two-bedrooms are priced from $990,000 with sizes from 75 to 132 square metres. Three-bedroom floorplans are sized between 97 and 182 sqm,, with prices starting at $1,395,000.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The three remaining penthouses, spanning up to 262 sqm, are priced from $2.9 million.</p>

<p>Over 75 per cent of apartments include dedicated studies, multipurpose rooms or family rooms, with select layouts offering walk-in pantries and laundries. Apartments are appointed with premium Miele appliances including ovens, washing machines, dryers, gas cooktops and dishwashers, while larger residences also incorporate integrated Miele microwaves, Fisher &amp; Paykel integrated refrigerators and five-burner Miele cooktops.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=360285]</p>

<p>Lily Lane will be constructed by award-winning iCIRT-rated builder <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/decode">Decode Group</a>, with construction to commence in mid-2026 and expected to complete early 2029.</p>

<p>Carrington Place comprises more than 800 apartments and is being delivered across multiple stages, with completion expected in 2032. Integrated with neighbouring bushland, the project will feature over 20,000 sq, of outdoor recreational area, including a one-kilometre boardwalk to Fred Caterson Reserve.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The Hills Showground Metro Station is just a two-minute walk away, offering fast connectivity to Sydney’s CBD, North Sydney, Chatswood, Macquarie Park and Norwest Business Park.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151821]</p>


Ellipse sets Castle Hill apartment record with $5.75 million Lily Lane penthouse sale

<p data-end="223" data-start="65">Fresh off completing its Delano Crows Nest development, Lindsay Bennelong has lodged plans for its next project, this time turning its attention to the beach.</p>

<p data-end="431" data-start="225">The developer, founded by Clarendon Homes founder Peter Campbell, is proposing a 37-apartment scheme at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-25-ashburner-street-manly-nsw-2095">17-25 Ashburner Street</a>, Manly, positioned between the southern end of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/manly-nsw-2095">Manly</a> Beach and East Manly Cove.</p>

<p data-end="431" data-start="225">Lindsay Bennelong called on local architecture firm Platform Architects to design the new building, given their success on The Finn, Lindsay Bennelong's current luxury apartment project on North Steyne.<span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="font-family:Aptos, sans-serif"><span style="color:#222222"><span style="font-style:normal"><span style="font-variant-ligatures:normal"><span style="font-weight:400"><span style="white-space:normal"><span style="background-color:#ffffff"><span style="text-decoration-thickness:initial"><span style="text-decoration-style:initial"><span style="text-decoration-color:initial"><i>&nbsp;</i></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p data-end="372" data-start="143">According to the Design Verification Statement by Bridie Gough of Platform Architects, the proposal “relates to the current context but also the desired future character of taller buildings suitable to the new planning controls.”</p>

<p data-end="722" data-start="374">The site has been identified as a Low to Mid-Rise Housing (LMR) location, given its position within 400 metres of the Manly Town Centre E1 Business Zone. The LMR controls are intended to unlock additional housing supply in well-located areas close to public transport, allowing developers to seek increased height limits to support greater density.</p>

<p data-end="884" data-start="724">“The proposal seeks to provide this increased level of housing whilst being respectful of some of the smaller scale buildings also nearby,” the statement reads.</p>

<p data-end="1207" data-start="886">Lindsay Bennelong Development Director Leigh Manser said the project has been carefully aligned with the intent of the LMR controls. The proposal will significantly increase housing yield on the site, replacing four houses and 10 apartments, comprising 25 bedrooms, with 37 new apartments delivering a total of 94 bedrooms.</p>

<p data-end="1487" data-start="1209">“Sydney is in a severe undersupply, and delivering more dwellings and more bedrooms than what currently exists is exactly what the LMR policy is designed to activate,” Manser said, noting that nine of the apartments will be allocated as affordable housing for frontline workers.</p>

<p data-end="1843" data-start="1489">“We have already commenced discussions with our community housing provider to determine the rental levels that frontline workers can realistically afford in this location,” he said. “These will need to sit well below the standard affordable housing benchmark of 20 per cent below market rent, and that has been factored into our feasibility and pricing.”</p>

<p><img alt="Manly" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ad03000f-19f9-48b4-b27d-e85ca800a1da" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%208.41.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=a.txHwCZgbCInlQ6QXbIrI.umvW1T.r8" /></p>

<p data-end="1825" data-start="1664">The design of the building incorporates a wave-like indentation running through the façade, referencing the nearby coastline and anchoring the building within its local context.</p>

<p data-end="1825" data-start="1664">The&nbsp;Design Verification Statement says careful consideration has been given to the articulation of the building, ensuring the bulk is broken down to a more human scale through a defined four-storey podium."</p>

<p data-end="1825" data-start="1664">The scheme includes a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments.</p>

<p data-end="2146" data-start="1962">“The design ensures a high level of amenity, with apartments offering generous private open space, many with expansive views, and all with comfortable proportions."</p>

<p data-end="2146" data-start="1962"><img alt="Bennelong" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6a7f2812-72a1-4959-84b0-997e8cd88aed" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%2010.15.50%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=6iMxU3MkXmHVHAoNhYBjnqgka8CUZNbk" /></p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lindsay-bennelong-developments">Lindsay Bennelong</a>&nbsp;is currently developing Finn Manly, just three full-floor luxury apartments on North Steyne. They recently welcomed residents to its 81-unit Delano Crows Nest development, a&nbsp;carefully scaled infill project designed to bridge&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/crows-nest-nsw-2065">Crows Nest</a>’s lively village centre with its surrounding heritage streets.</p>

<p>Designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ajc-architects">AJC Architects</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/delano-crows-nest-27-57-falcon-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Delano</a>&nbsp;is arranged across three low-rise buildings, incorporating a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom apartments alongside a limited number of townhomes addressing Hayberry Lane. The architectural approach draws on the area’s Art Deco lineage, reinterpreted through contemporary detailing and framed by landscaped communal gardens.</p>

<p>The developer also has a development site in Maroubra.</p>


First look: Lindsay Bennelong's new Manly apartment development revealed

<p>Fifty-nine residences across 37 levels. No more than two per floor. With 80 per cent now sold, what remains at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/madeline-by-mosaic-broadbeach-22-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">Madeline by Mosaic</a> is a short list.</p>

<p>Madeline was always conceived at a scale that sits outside the normal register of Gold Coast apartment living. The residences are half- and full-floor configurations, with the largest spanning more than 400 sqm, dimensions that place them closer to the penthouse end of the market regardless of where they sit in the building.</p>

<p>That scale is the organising principle of everything else: how the floorplans are laid out, how the materials read, how the connection between inside and outside works.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=355941]</p>

<p>The interiors were developed in collaboration with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser &amp; Partners</a>, the architecture practice&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mosaic-property-group">Mosaic</a> brought in as design partner for the first time on this project. The palette runs to natural stone, textured timbers, and soft metallics, materials chosen as much for their tactile quality as their appearance.</p>

<p>Light cleverly shifts across surfaces through the day, and the design is explicit about wanting that to be noticed. Full-height glazing runs across the primary living areas, and where the building faces east toward the ocean, those walls of glass are doing real work: framing a view corridor that the site's position directly opposite Broadbeach State School's playing fields keeps permanently open.</p>

<p>That outlook is the site's most consequential asset. In a suburb where new towers continue to rise, a protected view line is genuinely rare, and the Mary Avenue address secures it. Residents at Madeline will look out over open parkland rather than the rear of another building, a distinction that becomes more meaningful with each new development approved nearby.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=355939]</p>

<p>The private outdoor spaces are sized to match the residences themselves. Terraces on the upper levels frame uninterrupted ocean panoramas, and the planning ensures that living areas extend into those outdoor zones rather than treating them as separate attachments. The flow between the two is part of the design intent, not an afterthought.</p>

<p>Inside, the finish specification reflects the same approach. Rich stone benchtops, warm timber joinery, bespoke hardware, each element specified to hold up over time rather than read as a moment in a particular trend cycle.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=3409]</p>

<p>Beyond the residences, the amenity offering extends that register. A lap pool and sun deck anchor the outdoor space, alongside a magnesium pool, cold plunge, steam room, and sauna.</p>

<p>A commercial-grade gymnasium, residents' lounge, library, and boardroom round out a programme that functions more like a private members club than a standard building amenity floor.</p>

<p>Construction has commenced under Mosaic's in-house building arm, with completion scheduled for late 2028.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150135]</p>


Madeline by Mosaic delivers penthouse-level living across every apartment

<p>Developer Fortezza Group is the latest to take its new apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-belvedere-5-7-church-street-nelson-bay-nsw-2315">The Belvedere in Nelson Bay</a>, to the NSW Government.</p>

<p>Fortezza, predominantly a South East Queensland developer, is the latest to apply for State Significant Development&nbsp; status through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority, a pathway becoming favoured by developers to speed up the approval process.</p>

<p>They are planning 57 two- and three-bedroom apartments across 5-7 Church Street and 42 Donald Street, near d'Albora Nelson Bay Marina. The diverse apartment mix has sizes from just over 80 sqm to the largest three-bedroom penthouses that reach nearly 200 sqm.</p>

<p><img alt="Fortezza" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="090360e1-66d7-43ad-b686-aba81f173bf2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-29%20at%2010.22.40%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=DMqF96eBZolqSAAAcugX0l66ueWng66m" /></p>

<p>Fortezza calls the project a "piece of Istria in Nelson Bay,"&nbsp;referring to the largest peninsula in the Adriatic Sea, shared by Croatia (90%), Slovenia, and Italy, which is known for its Roman history, Venetian-style coastal towns and inland hilltop villages.</p>

<p>They say the The Belvedere is strategically positioned at the apex of Nelson Bay, offering unrivalled views of the ocean, the bay and captivating topography of the area.</p>

<p>"Our commitment to maintaining the integrity of every view and sight line has been relentless," Fortezza Group says.</p>

<p>"Through extensive modelling and analysis, we ensure that each apartment enjoys the natural beauty of Nelson Bay, regardless of future developments. Each design element is carefully curated to harmonise with our European heritage, drawing profound inspiration from the Roman architectural marvels in Istria. The arches, the cascades of greenery and the stonework that define our project pay homage to the structures that once exemplified Roman grandeur."</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a pool, communal green spaces, an office and a coffee shop.</p>


First look: Fortezza Group takes The Belvedere, Nelson Bay apartment development, to NSW Government

<p>Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.</p>

<p>They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.</p>

<p>They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.</p>

<p>Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor</p>

<p>Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" /></p>

<p>Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>​</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.</p>

<p>With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.</p>


Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
<p>If there's one thing I've learnt from developing property, it's that you definitely need a 'can do' attitude.</p>
<p>This week, I've come across so many 'can do' people that it's inspired me to write about them.</p>
<p>So what's the definition of 'can do'?  It's basically, when everything goes to shit and things seem totally not doable, then a person with a 'can do' attitude always finds a way.  So today, this goes out to the many people who've I've crossed paths with and who've reminded me of how we really can achieve anything we put our minds and hearts to.</p>
<p>Meet Bob from Port Macquarie, he's an older gentleman who has been emailing me for the past five years on and off. Every now and then I'll get a message from Bob. He may be responding to one of my Property Observer stories or our newsletters, but he always asks different questions. Well, this week Bob decided to take a big step and to be the property developer he'd wanted to for some time. His purpose?  Well, it is to use the equity he creates to help his daughter buy her first property.</p>
<p>Then there's my step daughter who rang me today to tell me that whilst planning her thirtieth birthday party she'd also set herself the goal to buy her fourth investment property by the time she turns thirty. Her birthday is in May 2016 and my heart sang as she described the type of property she's looking for.  Go girl, you have the 'can do' attitude.</p>
<p>This goes out to a dynamic young couple who called my just a week ago and who were so focussed they made calculated decisions to be able to secure their development site within a week and are now Property Bloom clients. They explained they have their sites set on building their wealth quickly and they've asked me to find their next site soon. Did I mention they also have seven dual occupancy projects underway in Queensland?</p>
<p>This goes out to my little brother who celebrated twenty-five years in the NSW Police Force this week and whom I proudly watched being awarded special things from Commissioner Scipione. His focus and hard work has seen him rise through the ranks, raise a family and build their dream home.</p>
<p>This goes out to the client who was recently turned away from the four big banks, despite being on a $300,000 plus salary because of the ridiculous changes in their serviceability calculators. I referred him to Rams who more than welcomed his business and gladly offered him the finance he wanted for his development project with Property Bloom.</p>
<p>This goes out to my project manager who after approaching many lenders has used creative strategies to source finance for her first development project.  She has drive and determination which comes from her desire to become financially independent.</p>
<p>This goes out to my builder and the amazing staff who always use the 'can do' attitude which means we'll be completing many of our development projects before Santa arrives this year.</p>
<p>Finally, this goes out to all of you reading this who refuse to let life's ups and downs stop you from driving forward with your goals and dreams. You all have the 'can do' spirit. As the famous Walt Disney said "If you can dream it, you can do it." </p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Jo Chivers is chief executive officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

jochivers-wq5Bp59R5a

Keeping a can-do attitude in the property game: Jo Chivers

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<div>
<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">South Australia has headaches, not least in the form of Whyalla where the town's major employer is suspended from trading on the securities exchange having failed to guide its steelworks back to break even over recent years, despite continually cutting costs and capex, and having unveiled a recapitalisation proposal back in February that has now been rejected.  </span>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Steel company Arrium Limited (ASX: ARI), which employees thousands of workers and has an export port facility at Whyalla, has been stuck in a trading halt and has been suspended from official quotation, with the company staring down a possible bankruptcy or a likely voluntary administration and its last traded share price at only 2.2 cents.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/8/ARI.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/8/ARI.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: ASX</span></em></div>
</div>
<div>It was announced to the ASX this week, in the euphemistically graceful way of these things, that the Chief Financial Officer of the company has resigned "to pursue other interests", while the company attempts to refinance its massive and unsecured $2.8 billion debt burden.<br><br>
</div>
<div>Whyalla already felt the pain of OneSteel shedding jobs last year and further cuts were made by OneSteel this week, with approximately 1,000 jobs lost in Whyalla since the beginning of last year as South Australian unemployment spiked to a 14 year high. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given that Arrium employs about 10 per cent of Whyalla's working population, the potential closure of the steelworks could rip the local community apart, having a more devastating impact than the closure of Holden upon South Australia, potentially resulting in related job losses variously estimated at between 3,000 and 4,000 (Arrium has about 10,000 employees in total, and the possible closure of the steelworks itself would directly account for 1,100 jobs). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>These are desperate numbers for a town with a population of only 22,000, and any such closure would inevitably result in an exodus or population outflow from the region. Let's sincerely hope that doesn't happen, though at present the outlook seems bleak.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Property market decimated</span></strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Median house prices have reportedly fallen sharply in Whyalla, while there have been few takers for attached dwellings, resulting in a crushing of unit prices.<br><br>
</div>
<div>It was reported this week that more than a billion dollars has been wiped off the value of Whyalla's property market in recent years - from $2.7 billion to $1.5 billion - as homeowners flood the market with for sale boards (though quite how those figures are derived given that so few dwellings have actually transacted is open to question). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This may sound like catastrophising, but vacancy rates are threatening to go through the roof, with scores of properties listed for rent in Whyalla and hundreds more in surrounding suburbs.<br><br>
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<div><a href="/images/2016/04/8/SQM.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">SQM Research</span></em></div>
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<div>Note that the dynamics described above have transpired while Whyalla's official unemployment rate is still relatively speaking quite low, at 7.2 per cent  as at December 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Slow house sales</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>In truth it is very challenging to get an accurate read on housing market prices, since although there are now hundreds of properties listed for sale, comparatively very few of them have been selling. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Looking at some specific examples suggests that if outright panic isn't on the cards yet, it may not be that far off if Arrium does shut up shop. As noted above, hopefully this proves not to be the case. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>By way of one example, following a few false starts and 372 days - more than a year - on the market, this house finally sold for $140,000, 36.4 per cent less than it was originally listed for. </div>
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<p> </p>
<div>Other examples suggest that prices may now be down by about a quarter over the last couple of years, but this statistic is essentially useless to individual prospective sellers, since it really all comes down to the asset in question and whether a willing buyer can be found.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While Arrium's steelworks fate is not yet decided, unfortunately this is becoming an all too familar story with regards to these small towns and cities that are so heavily reliant on a small number of employers.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>No doubt it's great if you can buy at the beginning of a resources boom and nimbly sell before the peak, but if you miss the precise turning points these markets have the potential to become frightfully thin and illiquid, and there may be nobody to even rent your property to, let alone sell it.</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Share indices</span></strong></div>
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<div>Another related graphic from the RBA Chart Pack worth looking at is the Australian share price indices chart. Note that the y axis here is presented on a log scale - the swan dive in the resources index since its peak has been nothing short of breathtaking.</div>
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<div>To a certain extent the resources index has been reflected the fortunes of property markets in resources heavy regions, albeit not coterminously.<br><br>Sure, if you got in to the resources penny dreadfuls in 2000 and sold out in 2007 then you'd say that the resources minnows and micro-caps are the best thing since sliced bread, but over the longer term the self-sustaining industrials and financials triumph.<br><br>Yes, I get the counter-arguments, if you bought a house in Whyalla for $150,000 in 2000 today it "could" be worth double what you paid for it, assuming you can find a willing buyer (i.e. a "when to" investment rather than a "how to" investment).<br><br>That said, looking at actual resales of like-for-like properties shows that price performance has not been as smart as suggested by median prices (which are distorted by development).<br><br>Unfortunately many property investors hopped on to the mining boom bandwagon around 2012 egged on by seminar groups and promoters, and are somewhat more precariously placed as voluntary administration looms large for Arrium.<br><br>Don't get me wrong, I hailed from a depressed steel city myself, and the last thing anyone with a heart wants to see is a single job lost. But the steelworks is not viable, and it appears likely to close without government handouts, and as such the housing market is wobbly to say the least.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Whyalla wipeout on the brink (redux): Pete Wargent

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<p>I’m not sure just how closely you have been following Australia’s property markets but what I can add is we are now starting to see some amazing trends emerging that will have both negative and positive outcomes.</p>
<p>This week we read that despite our national apartment building boom rents continue to rise. With approximately 30,000 apartments nearing completion in Sydney I predict that we have seen the rental peak. Unbeknown to many the major banks have already started black spotting many areas across Australia – where they are now no – go areas for future lending. For example, where you have an area that has undergone unprecedented new apartment high density developments you can expect values to start decreasing quite rapidly.</p>
<p>In Sydney the areas on ignore include, Darling Harbour, Dawes Point, Haymarket, Millers Point, Sydney, Sydney South, Waterloo, Annandale, Zetland, Homebush and Arncliffe. It will only be a matter of time before these areas spread further given the sudden – impact of oversupply where the vast majority of these properties will be left fighting it out in this newly created competitive rental market. It is quite unprecedented to see the lenders adopting this strategy given they are creating their own problems although they did approve the respective loans.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Gen Y (or Gen Why? as I call them) should stop complaining and consider themselves lucky that they missed most of this modern day apartment investment boom. Since December 2008, when the Rudd government moved the off – the – plan apartment overseas buying ratio from 50 per cent to 100 per cent where the large percentage of these buyers came from Asia, which has a combined population of approximately 4 billion people compared to our 24 million. Whilst I certainly don’t agree with this decision we have introduced foreign owners although the debt remains local – another big problem.</p>
<p>Then of course it would be remiss of me not to mention that the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) has gladly accepted the role of “Big Brother” where every single property transaction in Australia dating back to 1985 now being scrutinised. Whilst the ATO has been remarkably quiet on the announcement side of developments this is an election year and the decision to hand the ATO total ownership of Australian property data was a decision by the present government, so we can expect this to figure prominently in the forthcoming election debate.</p>
<p>Now if developments were not getting interesting we now have the Panama Papers (the largest leak in journalistic history) which the ATO would be all over given 800 Australians managed to make guest appearances as a direct result from the leaked papers.</p>
<p>Just what the exposure to Australian property markets is remains to be seen although I did read in <em>The Guardian</em> this week – “Which is exactly why today’s revelations about the connections between tax havens and property ownership are so important. Revealed in the leaked documents was the fact that 2,800 Mossack Fonseca companies are connected to more than 6,000 UK title deeds, worth at least £7bn. On top of this, according to Guardian analysis, more than 90,000 properties in England and Wales are listed in the Land Registry to overseas owners, at least 75,000 of which are owned by companies or individuals registered in tax havens.”</p>
<p>Now can you start to see why raising the overseas buyers’ ratio from 50 per cent to 100 per cent could have a serious impact on our Australian property markets? Given all that is presently going on it would be sage advice to closely monitor exactly what is going on in these areas of high density development.</p>
<p>To be fair many areas saw very little development so they will go through this with minimum downside to property prices and rental returns. Having said that the property aggregators bundle all the statistics into the one bundle so rents will then show signs of easing although in some areas it will be quite the opposite.</p>
<p>I have no doubt that the role the ATO is currently playing within the tapestry of the Australian property markets will have a defining outcome that will result in many forced sales. Just what effect this will have on property prices is way too early to call although I see the investment market under significant pressure with all presently going on. Then again there will be a knock – on effect with all the new developments which are presently in the re – zoning and planning stages more particularly, those areas that already that are already marked as being over developed – over supply.</p>
<p>On the other hand the owner operated housing market has just been ambling along and looks to have well and truly dodged this modern day investor bullet. If there were to be an investor market collapse the owner occupiers would then be placed again with the opportunity of a lifetime with record low cash rates coupled with an investor market collapse. Yes, we have seen such markets before although never on this grand scale.</p>
<p>In my opinion, these are the markets you should be closely following on high visual alert.</p>
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 56</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 45</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 43</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 53</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 46</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 48</p>
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 0</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 5</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 6</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 8</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 26</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 14</p>
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 0</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 7</p>
<p>•Number of houses on the market this week – 11</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 42</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 26</p>
<p>*Number of apartments on the market this week – 24</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em><span>ROBERT SIMEON</span> is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. <br>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000. </em></p>
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Why property markets keep confusing us: Robert Simeon

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<div>It's almost becoming an annual tradition that the Treasury scrambles until 4.59pm on a Friday before pinging out the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) Annual Report and nipping off for a few cold ones.</div>
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<div>And this year the finance team surely did not disappoint scrimmaging until mere moments before "schooner o'clock" on Friday before delivering the goods!</div>
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<div>Broadly as expected total foreign investment in Australia was very strong in FY2015, increasing by +16.3 percent to $194.6 billion, with real estate (both commercial and residential) the largest sector at $97 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The total number of real estate approvals increased from 23,428 to 37,347 in FY2015, mainly for new dwellings.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Real estate approvals have more than tripled in only two years. Bazinga. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/11/FIRB1.jpg" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<div>Proposed investment in real estate soared to $96.9 billion, incorporating $36.2 billion of commercial real estate proposals.</div>
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<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Foreign investment in residential real estate</span></strong></p>
<div>Proposed foreign investment in residential real estate ripped from $34.7 billion in FY2014 to $60.8 billion in FY2015, a level that could even not have been imagined only two years earlier.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span>
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<div>No proposals were rejected in FY2015 following three rejections in the preceding year, although 40 percent of approvals were granted with conditions attached, such as time periods for development or the requirement for temporary residents to sell should they depart Australia (approvals are filtered by specific questions, and therefore are to a large degree self-selecting).</div>
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<div>One divestment order was made in May 2015 by the FIRB, with an established $39 million residential Sydney property having been purchased illegally by a foreign company.</div>
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<div>Thereafter in May last year responsibility for divestment orders was assumed by the Australian Taxation Office (ATO), and a further 26 divestment orders were actioned.</div>
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<div>There was a massive 60 percent increase in the number of residential real estate approvals, with about 80 percent of those approvals for purchases of under $1 million in value (i.e. apartments).</div>
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<div>The bulk of this monster increase in foreign investment related to new real estate, including developer off the plan purchases, meaning that in aggregate foreign investors accounted for nearly 60 percent of all new residential construction.</div>
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<div><span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">China's rise</span></strong></span></div>
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<div><span>The value of total FIRB approvals for China has increased by around 68 per cent since the prior year and accounted for around 33 per cent of the total value of approvals by foreign country in FY2015.</span></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Approvals for all Chinese investment in real estate, incorporating residential and commercial investment, all but doubled to $24.3 billion.</span></div>
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<div>Finally, Melbourne retained its crown as the king of foreign investment in terms of residential real estate, reflecting the huge volumes of residential construction in that city, with Sydney comfortably  bopped into second place.</div>
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<div>There was also enormous foreign investment in vacant land in Victoria at $3.4 billion, far exceeding the $1 billion seen in New South Wales, for example.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The above having been said, Queensland saw far larger increases in foreign residential real estate investment in percentage terms.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/11/FIRB5.jpg" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Foreign investment in Australian residential real estate is something of a double-edged sword.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It is abundantly clear that foreign investors became more active in the purchase of new dwellings in FY2015, and monumentally so, with most of that foreign interest coming from China.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Foreign investment has thus been a crucial factor in the strength of this residential construction boom, accounting for more than half of the investment in new dwellings, helping in turn to keep rental growth subdued.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the flip side, foreign developers in Sydney have shown a willingness on occasion to pay prices for development opportunities far in excess of what locals are generally prepared to pay, putting significant upwards pressure on land values.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Whether this can level of investment in new dwellings can be sustained is less clear as the residential construction cycle passes its peak imminently.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Clearly there is vast foreign interest in Australian property from China, and it seems reasonable to me to suggest that any holes in the FIRB Annual Report are likely to be errors of omission rather than errors of commission.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As such, the above information acts as a useful indicator, but it may not be complete.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With immigration now rising again, the share of overseas born Aussies at a 120 year high, and as the number of international students in Australia skyrockets, the potential pathways for foreign capital to ultimately find its way into established residential property markets are multiplying, particularly in the largest capital cities.<br><br>A final thought or question for you - what percentage share of these new apartments bought by investors from the Chinese mainland ever make it to the local rental market?</div>
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<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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FIRB real estate approvals triple in two years: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>The financial media had an arousing day extrapolating the January Housing Finance figures.</span></p>
<p><span>Although I didn't have time to read all of the articles, the headlines variously describing these data as confirming a housing downturn, a fall, a cooling, a sinking, and for reasons that weren't entirely clear, even "home loans dropping at their fastest rate in 7 years"!</span></p>
<p><span>In actual fact, home loan activity hit its highest level in 7 years last month, while the investor sector has slowed.</span></p>
<p><span>Whatevs, it's fairly typical for total dwelling finance to decline by 20 to 30 percent in January as Aussies focus on the beach or their Christmas turkey, so there is obviously a fair bit of reliance on how accurate or otherwise the seasonal adjustments prove to be.</span></p>
<p><span>Such data series tend to jump around a bit from month to month, so the important thing to do is follow the trend, and to observe the data in conjunction with other metrics.</span></p>
<p><span>The US nonfarm payroll figures represent a fine case in point, with a decline in average earnings of 3 cents in February variously intimated to be one of the biggest falls since Niagara, despite the fact that earnings had increased by 12 cents only in January.</span></p>
<p><span>Back to the housing figures, the original data showed total dwelling finance of $25 billion, which was only slightly higher than the total for the preceding January, underscoring the dampening of investor activity.</span></p>
<p><span>That said, the chart of original data below may simply be mimicking what happened to CoreLogic-RP Data's mortgage index, which observed platform events declining sharply for the same period before recovering strongly in more recent weeks.</span></p>
<p><br><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5lbDdHSvarE/Vt_gJZwpUTI/AAAAAAAAbv8/XWUp4pI-wZs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="344"><br><br><span>The most obvious explanation for the pullback is that the crackdown on investor finance has run interference on the pace of lending to that sector, as lenders continue to apply more rigorous criteria.</span><br><br><span>Certainly I've come across numerous examples of stymied demand relating to would-be investors who are needing to try several avenues in order to secure finance, and many are having to wait to secure loans (for example, needing time to save larger deposits, or to prove higher levels of serviceability).</span><br><br><span>With interest rate settings as low as they are, there is evidently an enormous pent up demand for investment loans, but APRA has quite sensibly decided not to let the investor sector get any further ahead of itself.</span><br><br><span>There is litte such weakness to be found in the owner-occupier lending sector, with the value of commitments in January well up on last year, and some +42.3 percent higher than the equivalent figure for January 2012.</span><br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cclSLOcaxcY/Vt_gJV7wfrI/AAAAAAAAbv4/sov-6_hRf8Q/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="356"></div>
<p><br><span>There has been a high volume of refinancing in recent weeks, which muddies the macro picture somewhat.</span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Construction boom set to peak</span></strong><br><br><span>The residential construction boom and its associated multiplier effect still has legs, but in reality the industry is already going like the clappers in Sydney and some other cities, to the extent that labour costs have spiked to reflect an industry operating at close to its full capacity.</span><br><br><span>This dynamic cannot continue in perpetuity - nor should it - and the downturn in the residential construction sector will likely begin to reveal itself at some point later in the calendar year.</span><br><br><span>While the data charted below are only indicative rather than definitive, they do appear to support the notion of an imminent peak.</span><br><br><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-L8_4S3F8M0E/Vt_gLG6bmyI/AAAAAAAAbwI/j2F3V_q7ICU/s640/A6.jpg" width="640" height="348"><br><br><span>Similarly the number of new dwellings financed is tracking at a historically high level, but also looks peaky.</span><br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BLyGNP_wCq0/Vt_gKf8ZhKI/AAAAAAAAbwA/Mb0ctNU9yT4/s640/A5.jpg" width="640" height="346"></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">First timers &amp; renovations</span></strong><br><br><span>First homebuyers accounted for only an estimated 15.1 percent of dwellings financed in January which is below the long run average, though the Australian Bureau of Statistics does note that this figure is only an estimate since some lenders are not yet reporting correctly.</span><br><br><span>Although conventional wisdom is that first homebuyers are inactive being priced out of the market, comprehensive surveys carried out by </span>Digital Finance Analytics<span> (DFA) have shown that many are opting to get onto the housing ladder as investors, as those of us active in the market are only too aware.</span><br><br><span>Actual first time buyer purchases have been tracking at around 13,000 per month in line with the long run average, with DFA surveys finding that many are using the "bank of Mum and Dad" (and some fortunate souls are buying for cash, thereby escaping being captured by the housing finance data entirely).</span><br><br><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-U-3JNA5yqVM/Vt_gKGkaAwI/AAAAAAAAbwE/b2EM0peyfWA/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="366"><br><br><span>Finally, it has taken a heck of a long time to get things moving but major renovations activity is at last picking up as households enjoy the wealth effect of cheaper mortgage repayments and rising dwelling prices.</span><br><br><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-28gyyeZ7js8/Vt_gJZoxSLI/AAAAAAAAbv0/O-qKsnqK880/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="352"><br><br><span>Sydney clearly leads the way in terms of renovation activity as one would expect. Outstanding research once gain by CoreLogic-RP Data featured on yesterday's national news showed that 18 of the top 20 suburbs with the highest percentage of home equity are unsurprisingly located in Sydney. The other two are in Melbourne.</span><br><br><span>The 20 suburbs and towns with the most depressed levels of home equity read like a list of yesterday's regional property hotspots, including but not limited to: Moranbah, Gladstone, Mackay, Whitsundays, Bundaberg, Mount Isa, Rockhampton, Whyalla, Greater Geraldton, and Muswellbrook.</span><br><br><span>Just as in regional New Zealand, the commodities crash has hit much of regional Australia hard.</span><br><br><span>Interestingly, we are presently in the midst of a commodity price mini-boom with oil prices rebounding and iron ore futures again hitting "limit up" during today's trade to hit their highest level since July 2015.</span><br><br><span>While this is potentially a welcome windfall for the budget, don't be headfaked by it - the resources construction collapse </span>still has a long, long way to run<span>, and the deleterious impacts will be felt across many regions for years to come.</span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br><span>Overall, it would be premature extrapolation to read too much in the January figures, even though the trend certainly points towards a considerably lower level of investor activity in 2016 than was the case at the mid-2015 peak.</span><br><br><span>As always, it also pays to recognise that there is one singular "housing market", since some markets are performing very strongly, helping to offset the poor perfomance in many resources regions.</span><br><br><span>News of a downturn would certainly be news to residents of Kingsford in Sydney, where an </span>unrenovated dump<span> on a 499.5 square metre plot sold for a an outrageous $3,065,000 on Saturday (this was more than $1 million over the reserve price, and note the price guide!), having previously fetched $1,015,000 back in March 2008, when many commentators were predicting a price correction.</span><br><br><span>Surry Hills, an inner Sydney suburb with a vacancy rate of just 1.1 per cent, has recorded a series of sprightly results, and doubtless there are plenty of other examples in the inner suburbs of Sydney. House prices in Brisbane are also rising, as I noted yesterday.</span></p>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
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Were the January housing figures really that bad? Pete Wargent

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<p>This week 1,426 auctions were held across the combined capital cities, substantially lower than the 2,304 held last week and the 2,556 held one year ago.</p>
<p>This coming Monday is a public holiday for four out of the eight states and territories, which has been a key factor in the fall in auction volumes. The combined capital city clearance rate softened this week, down from 68.6 percent last week to 66.4 percent this week.</p>
<p>The two largest auction markets, Melbourne and Sydney, saw their preliminary clearance remain above the 70 percent mark, with Sydney at 72 percent and Melbourne at 70.5 percent, while the highest clearance rate was in Canberra where 75 percent of auctions cleared over the weekend. </p>
<p>The capital city weighted average was pulled lower by softer clearance rates in Brisbane (44 percent), Perth (46.7 percent) and Tasmania (33.3 percent). One year ago, the weighted average clearance rate was 77.2 percent, substantially stronger than the current result.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/14/20160314-Capital-city.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/14/20160314-Capital-city.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Only 414 <strong>Melbourne</strong> auctions were held this week with a preliminary clearance rate of 70.5 percent. This week’s result shows a slight decrease in the clearance rate for the city, after final results saw Melbourne’s clearance rate at 72.1 percent last week. Over the corresponding week last year, Melbourne’s clearance rate was 78.0 percent across 1,269 auctions. Although the city’s auction activity was quieter this week, there were still sub-regions where auction volumes were relatively high, with Melbourne’s Inner region host to 74 auctions and the West region host to 56 auctions. In terms of clearance rate, North West was the best performer, with 80.6 percent of reported auctions successful this week, followed by Inner South (79.2 percent).</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/14/20160314-Melbourne.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/14/20160314-Melbourne.png" alt=""></p>
<p><strong>Sydney</strong> was the busiest capital city auction market this week, with 680 auctions held and a preliminary clearance rate of 72.0 percent. On the final numbers for last week, 68.7 percent of Sydney auctions were successful, while one year ago the clearance rate was 83.9 percent, significantly stronger than the current results for the city. The number of homes taken to auction this year is also lower than last year when 926 auctions were held. Sydney’s strongest performing sub-regions this week were Ryde (86.2per cent), Eastern Suburbs (84.5 percent) and Inner West (78.6 percent).</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/14/20160314-Sydney.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/14/20160314-Sydney.png" alt=""></p>
<p>This week 44.0 percent of <strong>Brisbane</strong> auctions were successful based on preliminary results. There were 151 auctions held in the city, up from 133 last week and 132 at the same time last year. Last week Brisbane’s clearance rate was 50.9 percent, while one year ago it was 47.0 percent. Further south, on the <strong>Gold</strong> <strong>Coast</strong> 34 auctions were held this week. Preliminary results show 16 auction outcomes having been reported with a clearance rate of 50.0 percent.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/14/20160314-Brisbane-1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/14/20160314-Brisbane-1.png" alt=""> </p>
<p><strong>Adelaide’s</strong> preliminary results show 54.2 percent of auctions were successful this week, compared to 65.9 per cent last week and 66.7 percent one year ago. The number of auctions across the city fell to 93 this week, compared to 99 over the previous week.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/14/20160314-Adelaide.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/14/20160314-Adelaide.png" alt=""></p>
<p>There were 35 <strong>Perth</strong> auctions held this week. Perth’s clearance rate shows a higher level of volatility due to the small proportion of homes being sold via the auction method.  Over the year to date, Perth’s clearance rate has been recorded as low as 21.7 percent the week before last and as high as 46.7 percent this week, across just 15 results. Prior to this week, the highest result for the city was recorded over the final week of January when  44 percent of the 25 reported auctions were successful.</p>
<p><strong>Canberra</strong> has recorded another strong result this week with a preliminary clearance rate of 75.0 percent. The number of homes auctioned across the city this week was significantly lower than last week, falling from 88 to 34. At the same time last year 68.8 percent of the 71 auctions were sold.</p>
<p>There were 12 <strong>Tasmanian</strong> auction results reported this week and based on these preliminary results, 4 have sold.</p>
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smiller-vwPjRHTkST

Preliminary clearance rate remains below 70 percent for the second week in a row: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

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<p class="Body">Most property investors are out there chasing the big growth. Many of them end up disappointed citizens, especially those who chase it in the wrong places, like resources-influenced regional centres.</p>
<p class="Body">Very few places sustain that big growth for more than short periods.</p>
<p class="Body"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">There’s a lot to be said for a less popular but much safer and often more profitable policy: chasing consistency.</span></p>
<p class="Body">In our quarterly survey of sales activity around Australia, a report we call <em>The Price Predictor Index</em>, we have a prominent spot for the consistent markets. I tend to think of them as The Stayers of residential real estate.</p>
<p>They sit in the middle of the market, between the growth locations and the declining ones. These <em>Consistency</em> markets record steady rates of sale, quarter after quarter, year after year.</p>
<p>These locations, above all else, represent safety for investors. They are usually not boom markets, but have the valuable quality of solidity and consistency. And markets with this high level of even performance usually produce solid price growth over time.</p>
<p>Bowral in the Southern Highlands of NSW is one of those wonderfully consistent markets. It tends to sell between 100 and 110 homes every quarter, regardless of what’s happening in the wider market or the general economy.</p>
<p>In the past 12 months its median house price has risen 14% to $710,000 – and over the longer-term it has averaged 7% per year for the past decade.</p>
<p>The Sydney suburb of Sutherland has a modest median price, by Sydney standards, of $780,000 but it is good performer on price growth, on the back on a steady sales performance.</p>
<p>Over the past three years it has recorded between 78 and 88 sales virtually every quarter. No dramatic peaks and troughs, just good steady performance. Its median has grown 13% in the past year and it has averaged 9% per year over the past decade, which means values doubling in eight years.</p>
<p>The Brisbane suburb of Bulimba is another of those stayers – selling a similar number of properties quarter after quarter, year after year. Its median price has grown an average of 7% per year over 10 years, including 9% in the past 12 months, and its median is now above a million dollars.</p>
<p>These case studies – and there are many more like them - show that <em>Consistency</em> markets can produce good price growth and, in particular, steady long-term capital growth rates.</p>
<p>And they can be found anywhere, including in city markets that are generally in decline.</p>
<p>Perth is towards the bottom of the pile in terms of capital city markets. In the new Autumn edition of <em>The Price Predictor Index, </em>we can now identify only four suburbs with any kind of forward momentum in the entire Perth metropolitan area. But one Perth suburb has grabbed our nomination as the most consistent market in the nation.</p>
<p>Middle-market Willeton has sold between 80 and 87 homes per quarter in 10 of the past 11 quarters (with one quarter recording 100 sales). In the past six quarters, sales have been 83, 84, 83, 86, 87 and 81. Willeton is in the Canning LGA in the southern suburbs of Perth and currently has a median house price of $755,000.</p>
<p>While Perth prices generally are going backwards, three years after that market peaked, Willeton’s median price grew 3.4% in the past 12 months and has grown an average 7% per year over the past three years. Its long-term performance is 8.5% per year, which means values doubling in 8-9 years.</p>
<p>It’s a good example of how The Stayers perform, even when surrounded by a broader market in decline.</p>
<p><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

The Stayers perform, even when the market is in decline: Terry Ryder

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<p>The release of the 2013/14 financial year taxation statistics by the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) will no doubt add further fuel to the ongoing debate over the who, what, where, and why of rental property ownership.</p>
<p><span>Since I work in the industry and view properties more or less all the time, I don't need to look at any stats to know that investment properties are owned by a wide range of Australian income earners, largely "middle Australia". </span></p>
<p><span>I know, because these people include my clients, because I can see it for myself every time I go to viewings, and most significantly, because I'm a property market insider.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>The genuinely wealthy generally have better things to do with their cash then invest in low-yielding residential property.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>Nevertheless, I would hopefully call out others on their useless anecdotes, so I shall do so on myself. </span></p>
<p><span>Here are the headline numbers!</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/29/ATO1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/29/ATO1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>The figures show that 15.7 per cent of those lodging a tax return or 2,033,973 individuals owned a rental in FY2014, with the vast majority owning only one or two properties.</span></p>
<p><span>The long run numbers speak for themselves, with rental property ownership becoming increasingly popular and accessible, and showing a fivefold increase since 1980, or a near-fourfold increase as a share of the total number of taxpayers. </span></p>
<p><span>So much for rentals only being for the rich - there are now, quite literally, millions of landlords.</span></p>
<p><span>Happily for landlords, fewer of them declared a net rental loss in financial year 2014. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>Rental market trends - how much?</strong></span></p>
<p><span>Adding a bit more texture on what happened to the rental markets and negative gearing deductions in financial year 2014, the ATO Taxation Statistics for 2013/14 showed that net rental income losses fell by more than half from $7.9 billion to $3.7 billion over the last two years. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/29/NG.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/29/NG.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>The total rental loss claimed fell from $12.04 billion to $10.97 billion, but remember that negative gearing losses are a timing difference only, and as such these are not amounts which could be "saved" from the budget.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>The share of those 2.03 million folk who own a loss-making investment property fell from 64 percent to 62 percent.</span></p>
<p><span>OK, so that's the summary data. </span></p>
<p><span>But what does it actually mean?</span></p>
<p><span>In terms of what this means in reality for the typical individual owning a property, the average rental loss has declined from well over five grand at $5,096 in the 2008 tax year to just $1,828 by FY2014, a whopping decline of more than 64 percent. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/29/NG2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/29/NG2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Furthermore, with the cash rate falling several times further since 1 July 2013, average net rental loss will decline for the next two or three tax years to come (just ask any capital city based landlord about their 2015 tax returns).</span></p>
<p><span><strong>Rental market trends - who?</strong></span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>The Tax Office also served up some interesting data on who is recording net rental losses. </span></p>
<p><span>In terms of additional investors in the financial year, the numbers of individuals with a rental interest and a taxable income between $37,000 and $80,000 increased, if only moderately, with those within this taxable income bracket racking up a total of 707,000 taxpayers with a net rental interest. </span></p>
<p><span>However, the greatest increase in volume of overall investors was reflected in an extra 42,400 individuals in the taxable income bracket of $80,001 to $180,000.</span></p>
<p><span>By way of contrast there were only an additional 9,000 individuals with an interest in the $180,000 to $250,000 taxable income bracket, and an additional 5,000 individuals in the $250,000 to $500,000 bracket.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>Looked at another way by income, 767,000 of those declaring a taxable income of under $80,000 accounted for 61 per cent of total net rental losses.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>With the largest increase in net rental interest over the year, and it does confirm that to a substantial extent "middle Australia" is buying into residential investment property, and so doing is not only "for the rich".</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>It is worth highlighting here, however, that the "taxable income" declared on tax returns is reduced by negative gearing losses. </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>Thus for example it should be acknowledged  that a person declaring a net rental interest and taxable income of under $80,000 could theoretically have income of $81,828 before an average net rental loss is deducted.</span></p>
<p><span>The overwhelming majority of landlords continue to only own one or two rental properties. </span></p>
<p><span>Naturally when analysing the figures by age younger investors remain the most likely to rely upon negative gearing, with 82 per cent of all property investors aged between 18 and 29 declaring a net rental loss.</span></p>
<p><span>As the population ages it is little surprise to discover that more than one fifth of investors are now aged over 60, a share that will likely increase over time.</span></p>
<p><span>It goes almost without saying that the top 20 percent of income earners owe the bulk of investment housing debt, a point highlighted by the Reserve Bank of Australia as favourable for economic stability, since these investors are also best placed to service their debt. </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>Finally, one other interesting trend was the surge in sundry rental deductions, suggesting that with the rental market softening and becoming more competitive landlords have had an increasing propensity to spend on property improvements, which has been of significant benefit to the trades sector. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>The wrap</strong></span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>Overall, the figures again showed that rental properties are owned by a broad range of Australians by income, comprising a total of well over two million taxpayers.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>The good news from a budget repair perspective is that net rental losses have declined by well over half over the past two tax years alone.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>What's more, with interest rates since falling to record lows, we can look forward to seeing further declines over the next few years of data.</span></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
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New rental market trends: Pete Wargent

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<p>Across the combined capital cities, the auction clearance rate rose slightly to 69.5 percent last week, from 68.8 percent the previous week.</p>
<p>The number of homes taken to auction, however, fell to just 533 across the capital city markets, with Sydney host to the majority of auctions last week (332).</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/29/20160329-Combined-capital-city.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/29/20160329-Combined-capital-city.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Preliminary results for Sydney show that 77.4 percent of reported auctions (230) were successful, the strongest clearance rate for the city since mid-February this year, however it is likely that this will revise down as further results are captured over the coming days.</p>
<p>In Melbourne, traditionally the country’s largest auction market, there were just 79 auctions held last week, with 54 results reported so far and a clearance rate of 74.1 percent.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/29/20160329-Upcoming.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/29/20160329-Upcoming.png" alt=""></p>
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Long weekend returns a slight rise in capital city clearance rate: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">According to the CoreLogic RP Data Stratified Hedonic Index, the most affordable quarter of suburbs recorded annual value growth of 6.6 percent compared to a 6.4 percent rise across the middle market, and a 7.0 percent rise across the most expensive suburbs. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">While the annual figures show the most expensive suburbs recorded the strongest value growth over the past 3 months, value rises have been more uniform and with little difference between the broad value-based segments of the market. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Across the most affordable suburbs, we’ve seen values move 1.8 percent higher over the March quarter followed by the most expensive suburbs move by 1.7 percent, and the middle market suburbs by 1.6 percent.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-21%20at%201.40.49%20PM.png" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="/images/2016/04/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-21%20at%201.40.49%20PM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Home values across the city increased by 7.4 percent over the past year after annual growth peaked at 18.4 percent in July 2015 Over the past year the most affordable suburbs have seen values rise by 8.0 percent. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The middle market values are 6.6 percent higher and the most expensive suburbs have recorded value rises of 8.8 percent. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The annual rate of value growth is slowing across each segment, however the premium end of the market continues to record higher rates of capital gain.</span></p>
<p><strong style="line-height: 1.3em;">Sydney: </strong><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Home values across the city increased by 7.4 percent over the past year after annual growth peaked at 18.4 percent in July 2015. Over the past year the most affordable suburbs have seen values rise by 8.0 percent. The middle market values are 6.6 percent higher and the most expensive suburbs have recorded value rises of 8.8 percent.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The annual rate of value growth is slowing across each segment, however the premium end of the market continues to record higher rates of capital gain.</span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong style="line-height: 1.3em;">Melbourne</strong><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">: Recorded home value growth of 9.8 percent over the past year, down from a recent peak of 14.2 percent in September 2015. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The most affordable suburbs recorded value rises of 9.7 percent compared to 10.5 percent across the middle market and 10.0 percent across the most expensive suburbs. Growth is fairly steady across the affordable market but slowing across the middle and most expensive suburbs.</span></p>
<p><strong>Brisbane</strong>: Home values increased by 4.5 percent over the past year with the rate of value growth higher than it was a year ago. The most expensive suburbs recorded value growth of 4.6 percent over the past year compared to a 5.1 percent rise across the middle of the market.</p>
<p>The most affordable suburbs saw a 5.7 percent rise. Annual rates of growth are generally trending higher across each segment.</p>
<p><strong>Adelaide</strong>: Home value changes have been fairly steady having increased by 3.2 percent over the past year. The most expensive suburbs saw values rise by 3.2 percent compared to a 3.1 percent increase across the middle market and a 2.9 percent increase across the most affordable suburbs.</p>
<p>Across each segment growth is fairly steady with the rate of capital gain holding reasonably firm over the past twelve months.</p>
<p><strong>Perth</strong>: The only major capital city to see value falls over the past year, however, the annual rate of decline has started to improve, easing from - 4.1 percent in November 2015 to the current annual decline of -2.0 percent. Across the broad valuation segments, home values have fallen -0.5 percent across the most affordable suburbs, and are -1.5 percent lower across the middle market and 2.1 percent lower across the most expensive suburbs.</p>
<p>Across each segment values are still falling but the rate of decline in values has slowed.</p>
<p>The CoreLogic RP Data Stratified Home Value Index highlights the importance of looking beneath the broad headline figures.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-21%20at%201.42.39%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-21%20at%201.42.39%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Markets within a city can be performing quite differently to what the over-arching statistics for a capital city market shows, not only across valuation based segments of the market, but also across housing types and geographically.</p>
<p><span> </span><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
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