<p>South East Queensland developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a>’s entry into the Gold Coast apartment market has progressed from pipeline to market, with its Chevron Island project Bronze on Chevron now formally available to purchase ahead of a planned 2029 completion.</p>

<p>The 119-apartment development on Mawarra Street marks the Brisbane-headquartered builder-developer’s first residential play in the Gold Coast, following its expansion south from Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> comprises a mix of two-, three- and four-bedroom residences, with pricing starting from just over $1.5 million. The project is being delivered under Gardner Vaughan’s fully integrated model, with the group acting as both developer and builder, a structure it has consistently applied across its South East Queensland portfolio.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367182]</p>

<p>Architecture has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jeremy-ferrier-landscape-design">Jeremy Ferrier</a>. The building presents as a single-tower scheme, with a focus on maximising outlook across both the Surfers Paradise skyline and the Nerang River.</p>

<p>Apartments have been planned with open-plan living zones extending to generous balconies, a response to the site’s dual-aspect positioning between river and ocean. Interiors follow a restrained coastal palette, with two colour schemes offered, and an emphasis on natural light and cross-ventilation.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367181]</p>

<p>Resident amenity is concentrated across more than 1,250 sqm and includes a resort-style pool, gym, yoga lawn and rooftop entertaining areas. A function space with catering facilities forms part of the upper-level offering, alongside north- and south-facing outdoor areas.</p>

<p>Ground level will incorporate two retail tenancies, intended to extend the existing village character of the surrounding streets.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367200]</p>

<p>The project sits within walking distance of Thomas Drive’s established dining strip, while maintaining proximity to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Surfers Paradise</a> beach and broader Gold Coast amenity. The location, positioned on Chevron Island between the river and coastline, has increasingly attracted mid- to high-density development in recent years as the precinct evolves beyond its low-rise origins.</p>

<p>Gardner Vaughan’s move into the Gold Coast was first signalled in 2025, with the group identifying the region as a natural extension of its operations. Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge described the expansion as both “strategic and natural”, citing demand for well-designed apartments in lifestyle-driven markets.</p>

<p>Construction is expected to complete in early 2029.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]</p>


Joel Robinson

Gardner Vaughan brings Bronze on Chevron to market as Gold Coast debut

<p data-end="198" data-start="61">One of the penthouses at Lily Lane, the latest stage of Carrington Place by Ellipse Property, has set a new local apartment price record.</p>

<p data-end="350" data-start="200">The four-bedroom residence, purchased by a local downsizer, sold for $5.75 million—around 75 per cent higher than the previous record of $3.3 million.</p>

<p data-end="461" data-start="352">Over 40 per cent of the first release of apartments at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lily-lane-at-carrington-place-castle-hill-32-carrington-road-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Lily Lane</a> have already been snapped up just six weeks since it launched to the market.</p>

<p data-end="461" data-start="352">&nbsp;</p>

<p>Located at 32 Carrington Road, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/castle-hill-nsw-2154">Castle Hill</a> and designed by award-winning architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ptw">PTW</a>, Lily Lane is directly opposite the Hills Showground Metro station. It offers a total 213 units over two 12-storey towers - a mix of 67 one-bedroom, 100 two-bedroom and 46 three-bedroom apartments - with a ground-floor retail offering.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=368352]</p>

<p>Blake Schulze, National Director – Residential at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/colliers">Colliers</a>, says around 44 per cent of buyers are&nbsp;owner occupiers, with 35 per cent being investors and 21 per cent first homebuyers.</p>

<p>“Developments of this calibre are very rare in the Hills District, and Lily Lane’s sales success demonstrates the depth of demand for over-sized apartments that genuinely compete with freestanding homes," Schulze says.</p>

<p>"We are seeing particular demand from downsizers who want to remain in the area but transition into spacious, high-quality apartment living."</p>

<p>On the penthouse sale, it says it shows buyers&nbsp;are prepared to pay a premium for scale, quality, and direct access to the Metro.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=368351]</p>

<p>One-bedroom apartments are sized from 50-72 sqm with prices starting at $745,000, while two-bedrooms are priced from $990,000 with sizes from 75 to 132 square metres. Three-bedroom floorplans are sized between 97 and 182 sqm,, with prices starting at $1,395,000.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The three remaining penthouses, spanning up to 262 sqm, are priced from $2.9 million.</p>

<p>Over 75 per cent of apartments include dedicated studies, multipurpose rooms or family rooms, with select layouts offering walk-in pantries and laundries. Apartments are appointed with premium Miele appliances including ovens, washing machines, dryers, gas cooktops and dishwashers, while larger residences also incorporate integrated Miele microwaves, Fisher &amp; Paykel integrated refrigerators and five-burner Miele cooktops.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=360285]</p>

<p>Lily Lane will be constructed by award-winning iCIRT-rated builder <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/decode">Decode Group</a>, with construction to commence in mid-2026 and expected to complete early 2029.</p>

<p>Carrington Place comprises more than 800 apartments and is being delivered across multiple stages, with completion expected in 2032. Integrated with neighbouring bushland, the project will feature over 20,000 sq, of outdoor recreational area, including a one-kilometre boardwalk to Fred Caterson Reserve.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The Hills Showground Metro Station is just a two-minute walk away, offering fast connectivity to Sydney’s CBD, North Sydney, Chatswood, Macquarie Park and Norwest Business Park.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151821]</p>


Ellipse sets Castle Hill apartment record with $5.75 million Lily Lane penthouse sale

<p data-end="223" data-start="65">Fresh off completing its Delano Crows Nest development, Lindsay Bennelong has lodged plans for its next project, this time turning its attention to the beach.</p>

<p data-end="431" data-start="225">The developer, founded by Clarendon Homes founder Peter Campbell, is proposing a 37-apartment scheme at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-25-ashburner-street-manly-nsw-2095">17-25 Ashburner Street</a>, Manly, positioned between the southern end of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/manly-nsw-2095">Manly</a> Beach and East Manly Cove.</p>

<p data-end="431" data-start="225">Lindsay Bennelong called on local architecture firm Platform Architects to design the new building, given their success on The Finn, Lindsay Bennelong's current luxury apartment project on North Steyne.<span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="font-family:Aptos, sans-serif"><span style="color:#222222"><span style="font-style:normal"><span style="font-variant-ligatures:normal"><span style="font-weight:400"><span style="white-space:normal"><span style="background-color:#ffffff"><span style="text-decoration-thickness:initial"><span style="text-decoration-style:initial"><span style="text-decoration-color:initial"><i>&nbsp;</i></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p data-end="372" data-start="143">According to the Design Verification Statement by Bridie Gough of Platform Architects, the proposal “relates to the current context but also the desired future character of taller buildings suitable to the new planning controls.”</p>

<p data-end="722" data-start="374">The site has been identified as a Low to Mid-Rise Housing (LMR) location, given its position within 400 metres of the Manly Town Centre E1 Business Zone. The LMR controls are intended to unlock additional housing supply in well-located areas close to public transport, allowing developers to seek increased height limits to support greater density.</p>

<p data-end="884" data-start="724">“The proposal seeks to provide this increased level of housing whilst being respectful of some of the smaller scale buildings also nearby,” the statement reads.</p>

<p data-end="1207" data-start="886">Lindsay Bennelong Development Director Leigh Manser said the project has been carefully aligned with the intent of the LMR controls. The proposal will significantly increase housing yield on the site, replacing four houses and 10 apartments, comprising 25 bedrooms, with 37 new apartments delivering a total of 94 bedrooms.</p>

<p data-end="1487" data-start="1209">“Sydney is in a severe undersupply, and delivering more dwellings and more bedrooms than what currently exists is exactly what the LMR policy is designed to activate,” Manser said, noting that nine of the apartments will be allocated as affordable housing for frontline workers.</p>

<p data-end="1843" data-start="1489">“We have already commenced discussions with our community housing provider to determine the rental levels that frontline workers can realistically afford in this location,” he said. “These will need to sit well below the standard affordable housing benchmark of 20 per cent below market rent, and that has been factored into our feasibility and pricing.”</p>

<p><img alt="Manly" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ad03000f-19f9-48b4-b27d-e85ca800a1da" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%208.41.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=a.txHwCZgbCInlQ6QXbIrI.umvW1T.r8" /></p>

<p data-end="1825" data-start="1664">The design of the building incorporates a wave-like indentation running through the façade, referencing the nearby coastline and anchoring the building within its local context.</p>

<p data-end="1825" data-start="1664">The&nbsp;Design Verification Statement says careful consideration has been given to the articulation of the building, ensuring the bulk is broken down to a more human scale through a defined four-storey podium."</p>

<p data-end="1825" data-start="1664">The scheme includes a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments.</p>

<p data-end="2146" data-start="1962">“The design ensures a high level of amenity, with apartments offering generous private open space, many with expansive views, and all with comfortable proportions."</p>

<p data-end="2146" data-start="1962"><img alt="Bennelong" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6a7f2812-72a1-4959-84b0-997e8cd88aed" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%2010.15.50%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=6iMxU3MkXmHVHAoNhYBjnqgka8CUZNbk" /></p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lindsay-bennelong-developments">Lindsay Bennelong</a>&nbsp;is currently developing Finn Manly, just three full-floor luxury apartments on North Steyne. They recently welcomed residents to its 81-unit Delano Crows Nest development, a&nbsp;carefully scaled infill project designed to bridge&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/crows-nest-nsw-2065">Crows Nest</a>’s lively village centre with its surrounding heritage streets.</p>

<p>Designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ajc-architects">AJC Architects</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/delano-crows-nest-27-57-falcon-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Delano</a>&nbsp;is arranged across three low-rise buildings, incorporating a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom apartments alongside a limited number of townhomes addressing Hayberry Lane. The architectural approach draws on the area’s Art Deco lineage, reinterpreted through contemporary detailing and framed by landscaped communal gardens.</p>

<p>The developer also has a development site in Maroubra.</p>


First look: Lindsay Bennelong's new Manly apartment development revealed

<p>Fifty-nine residences across 37 levels. No more than two per floor. With 80 per cent now sold, what remains at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/madeline-by-mosaic-broadbeach-22-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">Madeline by Mosaic</a> is a short list.</p>

<p>Madeline was always conceived at a scale that sits outside the normal register of Gold Coast apartment living. The residences are half- and full-floor configurations, with the largest spanning more than 400 sqm, dimensions that place them closer to the penthouse end of the market regardless of where they sit in the building.</p>

<p>That scale is the organising principle of everything else: how the floorplans are laid out, how the materials read, how the connection between inside and outside works.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=355941]</p>

<p>The interiors were developed in collaboration with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser &amp; Partners</a>, the architecture practice&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mosaic-property-group">Mosaic</a> brought in as design partner for the first time on this project. The palette runs to natural stone, textured timbers, and soft metallics, materials chosen as much for their tactile quality as their appearance.</p>

<p>Light cleverly shifts across surfaces through the day, and the design is explicit about wanting that to be noticed. Full-height glazing runs across the primary living areas, and where the building faces east toward the ocean, those walls of glass are doing real work: framing a view corridor that the site's position directly opposite Broadbeach State School's playing fields keeps permanently open.</p>

<p>That outlook is the site's most consequential asset. In a suburb where new towers continue to rise, a protected view line is genuinely rare, and the Mary Avenue address secures it. Residents at Madeline will look out over open parkland rather than the rear of another building, a distinction that becomes more meaningful with each new development approved nearby.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=355939]</p>

<p>The private outdoor spaces are sized to match the residences themselves. Terraces on the upper levels frame uninterrupted ocean panoramas, and the planning ensures that living areas extend into those outdoor zones rather than treating them as separate attachments. The flow between the two is part of the design intent, not an afterthought.</p>

<p>Inside, the finish specification reflects the same approach. Rich stone benchtops, warm timber joinery, bespoke hardware, each element specified to hold up over time rather than read as a moment in a particular trend cycle.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=3409]</p>

<p>Beyond the residences, the amenity offering extends that register. A lap pool and sun deck anchor the outdoor space, alongside a magnesium pool, cold plunge, steam room, and sauna.</p>

<p>A commercial-grade gymnasium, residents' lounge, library, and boardroom round out a programme that functions more like a private members club than a standard building amenity floor.</p>

<p>Construction has commenced under Mosaic's in-house building arm, with completion scheduled for late 2028.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150135]</p>


Madeline by Mosaic delivers penthouse-level living across every apartment

<p>Developer Fortezza Group is the latest to take its new apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-belvedere-5-7-church-street-nelson-bay-nsw-2315">The Belvedere in Nelson Bay</a>, to the NSW Government.</p>

<p>Fortezza, predominantly a South East Queensland developer, is the latest to apply for State Significant Development&nbsp; status through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority, a pathway becoming favoured by developers to speed up the approval process.</p>

<p>They are planning 57 two- and three-bedroom apartments across 5-7 Church Street and 42 Donald Street, near d'Albora Nelson Bay Marina. The diverse apartment mix has sizes from just over 80 sqm to the largest three-bedroom penthouses that reach nearly 200 sqm.</p>

<p><img alt="Fortezza" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="090360e1-66d7-43ad-b686-aba81f173bf2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-29%20at%2010.22.40%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=DMqF96eBZolqSAAAcugX0l66ueWng66m" /></p>

<p>Fortezza calls the project a "piece of Istria in Nelson Bay,"&nbsp;referring to the largest peninsula in the Adriatic Sea, shared by Croatia (90%), Slovenia, and Italy, which is known for its Roman history, Venetian-style coastal towns and inland hilltop villages.</p>

<p>They say the The Belvedere is strategically positioned at the apex of Nelson Bay, offering unrivalled views of the ocean, the bay and captivating topography of the area.</p>

<p>"Our commitment to maintaining the integrity of every view and sight line has been relentless," Fortezza Group says.</p>

<p>"Through extensive modelling and analysis, we ensure that each apartment enjoys the natural beauty of Nelson Bay, regardless of future developments. Each design element is carefully curated to harmonise with our European heritage, drawing profound inspiration from the Roman architectural marvels in Istria. The arches, the cascades of greenery and the stonework that define our project pay homage to the structures that once exemplified Roman grandeur."</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a pool, communal green spaces, an office and a coffee shop.</p>


First look: Fortezza Group takes The Belvedere, Nelson Bay apartment development, to NSW Government

<p>Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.</p>

<p>They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.</p>

<p>They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.</p>

<p>Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor</p>

<p>Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" /></p>

<p>Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>​</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.</p>

<p>With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.</p>


Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Rental yields across the combined capital cities have gradually trended lower over the past two decades and currently sit at record-low levels. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The change in rental rates have also seen a slowdown in recent years which has culminated in no change in rents over the past year. This represents a historically weak market for rental growth. </span></p>
<p>Looking at rental growth over the past decade, across the combined capital cities rental rates increased by 50.7 percent over the period, or 4.2 percent per annum. This is a lower level of increase than home values which have increased by 72.0 percent (5.6 percent per annum) over the same period. A split by property types, shows there hasn’t been a substantial difference in performance, with house rents increasing by 50.3 percent compared to a 53.7 percent rise in unit rents. </p>
<p>By breaking out the results across the individual capital cities and looking at the total rental change over the past decade, these show that Sydney (+59.4 percent) and Perth (54.6 percent) have seen significantly greater increases in rents than all other capital cities. </p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/23/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-23%20at%204.18.39%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/02/23/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-23%20at%204.18.39%20PM.png" alt="" width="826" height="757"></p>
<p>Although rental growth has been strong in some cities, in most instances home value growth has outpaced rental growth over the past decade. The exceptions have been Hobart and Perth where rental increases have outstripped value growth, pushing yields higher over the decade, and Brisbane where value growth and rental growth have each been recorded at 44.0 percent over the decade.</p>
<p>The other side of the rental growth equation is of course gross rental yields which highlight the expected annual <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">rental return on an investment property. There are a few points that should be highlighted, they are based on the home value so no consideration is given to borrowings nor are there allowances for costs. Furthermore, the calculation assumes that there is no vacancy, which in the current environment is becoming somewhat more difficult to achieve. </span></p>
<p>Over the past 10 years there has been little overall change in gross rental yields across the capital cities. Although capital city rental yields are now at an historic low of 3.5 percent the shift from 4.0 percent 10 years ago has been relatively minimal. Perth and Hobart are the only cities in which yields are now higher than they were 10 years ago while in Brisbane they are unchanged over the period.</p>
<p>Melbourne and Darwin have seen the greatest softening in gross rental yields over the past decade. Melbourne, where gross yields are the lowest of any capital city, have slipped from 4.2 percent ten years ago to 2.9 percent currently. </p>
<p>With rental rates falling and yields sitting at record low levels at a time when housing construction is at its highest level on record it is reasonable to expect that rents and yields will slip further over the coming years. </p>
<p>Of course we have recently seen the Labor opposition propose changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount. Were policies such as these to be implemented it could change the situation for investors. Whereas over recent years their focus has clearly been on value growth, attention could begin to become more balanced w<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">here investors place a higher degree importance on the yield profile and potential for positive cash flow.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/23/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-23%20at%204.20.11%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/02/23/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-23%20at%204.20.11%20PM.png" alt="" width="823" height="377"></p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Housing rents slower to increase than home values: Cameron Kusher

<html><body>
<p>This week marks the fourth consecutive week of the combined capital city clearance rate being above the 70 percent mark, with the stronger than expected auctions results continuing through the final week of February.  </p>
<p>Capital city auction results haven’t recorded a four week period where the clearance rates was consistently higher than 70% since early September last year.  Based on 2,113 reported results, the preliminary clearance rate across the combined capitals was 72.4 percent this week, having strengthened from 71.8 percent last week when 2,347 auctions were held.</p>
<p>Auction activity continues to pick up with 2,620 auctions scheduled this week; however is yet to reach the same levels seen at the same time last year which is more than likely attributed to Melbourne’s Labour Day public holiday falling a week later this year.</p>
<p>Last year’s final auction clearance rate for the week was 76.4 percent across a total of 3,238 auctions. The robust rate of auction clearance, together with the CoreLogic Home Value Indices continuing to show a moderate rate of growth <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">through February suggest housing markets are continuing to demonstrate a controlled slowdown rather than any signs of a sharp correction.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-29%20at%209.13.44%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="/images/2016/02/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-29%20at%209.13.44%20AM.png" alt="" width="800" height="427"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>Melbourne’s</strong><span> preliminary clearance rate this week is 75 percent, up from 74.1 percent last week, but lower than the 77.1 percent of properties that sold at the same time last year. This week 1,327 residential homes were taken to auction, having increased from 1,105 the previous week. </span></p>
<p><span>At the same time last year 1,565 Melbourne auctions were held, however volumes were higher due to the scheduling of the Labour Day weekend the following week. Melbourne’s top performing sub-region this week was the Inner South, where both a high volume of auctions were held (224) and the strongest clearance rate achieved at 83.9 percent. Inner Melbourne had the most auctions this week (289), however the clearance rate was the second lowest of any Melbourne sub-regions at 71.8 percent.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/29/20160229-Melbourne.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/02/29/20160229-Melbourne.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="541"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>This week </span><strong>Sydney’s</strong><span> preliminary auction clearance fell to 73.3 percent, following on from the previous week’s result of 76.5 percent. There were 872 auctions held, rising from 800 last week, but lower than the 1,223 over the comparable week one year ago. A higher proportion of auctions were successful this week in Sydney’s Eastern Suburbs (86.9 percent) and Ryde (81.6 percent), however the most auction activity occurred in North Sydney and Hornsby with 173 auctions.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/29/20160229-Sydney.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/02/29/20160229-Sydney.jpg" alt="" width="795" height="541"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>The number of </span><strong>Brisbane</strong><span> homes taken to auction this week was similar to last week, with 175 held, compared to 172 the previous week. The preliminary auction clearance rate strengthened to 58.3 per cent this week, having risen from 53.1 per cent. Compared to the final months of 2015, Brisbane’s clearance rate so far this year has been consistently stronger. This week 43 Gold Coast auction results have been reported with a preliminary clearance rate of 48.8 per cent.</span></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/29/20160229-Brisbane.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/02/29/20160229-Brisbane.jpg" alt="" width="788" height="527"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>There were 118 </span><strong>Adelaide</strong><span> auctions held this week and preliminary results show a success rate of 72.7 per cent after having dipped to 64.6 per cent last week when 112 auctions were held. One year ago 109 Adelaide homes were taken to auction with a strong clearance rate of 76.7 per cent.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/02/29/20160229-Adelaide.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/02/29/20160229-Adelaide.jpg" alt="" width="799" height="545"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>The number of <strong>Perth</strong> homes taken to auction this week remained steady, with 47 scheduled auctions compared to 42 last week and 46 the previous week. Preliminary results show the cities clearance rate sitting at 44.4 per cent.</p>
<p>Across <strong>Canberra</strong>, 72 homes were taken to auction this week. Preliminary results show a clearance rate of 69.6 per cent, up from 61.9 per cent the previous week.</p>
<p>So far 5 <strong>Tasmanian</strong> results have been reported with 3 sales.</p>
</body></html>

smiller-vwPjRHTkST

Capital city clearance rate remains above 70% for the fourth consecutive week: Shana Miller

<html><body>
<p>I was interviewed for a great story in one of the property magazines, the article was called Keep and Reap and it examines the pros and cons of holding onto property after you finish developing it.</p>
<p>One of the biggest things to consider before you start a development is entry and particularly exit costs - if you are developing to sell.</p>
<p>Around the same time I received a call I had from a guy called Dave.  He said ‘Hi Jo, can you help me with a dual occupancy project’.  To that I replied...’sure Dave, we’d love to. Tell me a bit about your strategy and what you are hoping to achieve from a property development’. </p>
<p>'Well, my wife and I want to turn over a few developments, you know...complete one, sell and then use the profits to go again. Our aim is to use the proceeds to pay down the mortgage on our principal place of residence and keep investing’.</p>
<p>Dave certainly has a very good plan. As property development project managers, we are not qualified to give accounting or financial advice, but what I do like to check with anyone making this kind of enquiry is that they understand what <em>selling or exit costs</em> are involved.</p>
<p>Dave said he understood there’ll be agent’s selling commission and marketing costs to sell the new villas, we might have to pay some Capital Gains Tax and that’s it I think’. He said.   </p>
<p>My reply...’Are you sure Dave?’</p>
<p>If you take a look at the exit costs, then you may think twice about selling on completion, especially if it’s a small development like a dual occupancy.</p>
<p>In the Hunter Region of NSW where we manage developments for our clients, we can typically create around one hundred thousand dollars in equity on a dual occ project within twelve months. This sounds like a lot of equity to create and it is...if you are holding the properties you’ve built.</p>
<p>By holding on completion you'll not only get the benefits of depreciation and higher than average rental returns (everyone loves to rent a brand new property) but some clients choose to refinance and by doing this they can access some of the equity that’s been created through the development process.</p>
<p>But, if you are looking to sell on completion, then there is a whole list of costs you need to consider.</p>
<p>The big one is GST and as I explain this to Dave, I highly recommend he checks this out closely with his accountant.  GST is applicable when you sell new property, so Dave would need to ensure he pays 10% of his selling cost to the government. If he is not registered for GST, he can't claim back the GST he's paid over the life of the development so he's essentially losing 10% on his sales. However, if he holds the properties for five years, they are no longer deemed new and no GST is applicable.</p>
<p>Finance costs are another cost to consider. Dave needs to check with his lender what fees and charges may be applicable when he sells, these may include a prepayment fee, settlement fee, early exit fee or Government mortgage discharge fees.</p>
<p>There will be legal fees for your solicitor to prepare Sales Contracts and manage the conveyancing for you.</p>
<p>In some instances, Land Tax may also be payable on a property that is being sold.</p>
<p>Then of course, the sales agent's commission, marketing costs and perhaps auctioneer costs.</p>
<p>Also consider the holding costs. During the sales process you probably won't rent the villas and they'll be sitting empty on a fully drawn construction loan.</p>
<p>One of the advantages to holding and renting the properties on completion is that the interest you pay during the development process is tax deductible. However, if your intention is to sell on completion then you lose this important deduction during construction but also during the selling period.</p>
<p>I recommended Dave have a meeting with his accountant to make sure he understood the implications of selling.  A few weeks later, he called to tell me he's switched strategy and wanted to hold onto his properties. One of his reasons was to take advantage of the higher depreciation benefits and he wanted to build a property portfolio. His accountant showed him just how much income tax he could save himself as he was in a high tax bracket.</p>
<p>It wasn't long before we had found him a great site in Newcastle with a potential gross yield of 7%. This strong yield will make it easier for Dave to hold and continue on his property investment journey.</p>
<p>By going through the exercise of weighing up the pros and cons of holding, it helped Dave realise that if you are going to the trouble to develop property in the right location, you may as well hold to reap the immediate and future rewards. </p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Jo Chivers is chief executive officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

jochivers-wq5Bp59R5a

Is it really worth selling on completion? Jo Chivers

<html><body>
<p>Ipswich, once the capital growth leader for the Brisbane metropolitan area and a favourite target for property investors from around Australia, is mounting a comeback after three years in the doldrums.</p>
<p><span>Up until 2013, Ipswich City dominated the growth rankings for Greater Brisbane. In a report early in 2013, I wrote: “</span><span>I</span>pswich City is the capital gains star of the Brisbane metropolitan area. The municipality which encompasses the south-western fringe of the Greater Brisbane area has the top five suburbs for long-term capital growth. It has eight of the top 10 - and 15 of the top 25 suburbs.”</p>
<p>At that time, virtually every suburb of Ipswich had a long-term growth rate (average annual growth in median prices over the previous 10 years) above 10% per year. It had attracted home-buyers in large numbers and investors seeking affordable prices and above-average rental yields.</p>
<p>Today, after three down years, the same suburbs have long-term growth averages in the 4-5% range.</p>
<p>But the comeback has started, with the first compelling evidence seen in the latest quarterly figures. Hotspotting analysis of sales volumes shows that Ipswich City has belatedly joined the overall positive trend in the Brisbane market. The LGA now has eight suburbs with clear growth trajectories – double the number in the previous survey three months ago.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Brisbane’s real estate sector has been behaving quite differently to that in Sydney, where for much the past 2-3 years there has been double-digit price growth right across the metropolitan area.</p>
<p>In Brisbane, there has been growth in individual sectors, but it has not been widespread and the generalised growth figure for the city overall has been moderate at best. </p>
<p>The Brisbane North precinct was the first to get on a growth path about two years ago and many suburbs in that area recorded double-digit annual growth in median prices.</p>
<p>That market is no longer pumping to the same degree – sales activity has tapered off in most of those suburbs which were previously the market leaders of Greater Brisbane.</p>
<p>Now the southside has taken over. In our survey three months ago, Brisbane South was the market leader, with Logan City alongside. Now Logan City (the affordable urban bridge between Brisbane City and the Gold Coast) is the clear leader, with 18 growth suburbs, followed by Brisbane South with 13.</p>
<p>And starting to mount a challenge, well behind these other sectors in the cycle, is Ipswich City.</p>
<p>There was an inevitability about the Ipswich revival because this precinct ticks all the boxes. It is a perfect fit the “power combination” of factors that drives real estate markets – affordability plus infrastructure plus jobs nodes.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>This area has a good supply of suburbs with median house prices in the $200,000s, ample land for future development, big government spending on infrastructure of all kinds, an ambitious and proactive council, and billions in investment from the private sector. </p>
<p>Many big businesses with major warehousing needs are based out there because the land is cheap and the transport links are good.</p>
<p>Entities involved in key current projects across Ipswich City include Mirvac, GPT, TNT Express, Devine, Lend Lease, Ramsay Health Care, the State Government, the Ipswich City Council and an array of major Asian companies.</p>
<p>As well as cheap entry prices, the area offers solid rental yields, typically in the 5.5% to 6% range.</p>
<p>Goodna is a fairly typical offering. It’s a modest but well-connected suburb, located on the Ipswich Motorway and the rail line to central Brisbane, close to multiple jobs nodes and not far from the extensive facilities of the Springfield master-planned community. It recorded 120 houses sales in the past year at a median price of $290,000 and median yield a little below 6%.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>As the overall Ipswich City market rises, some suburbs are starting to deliver the kind of price growth that made Ipswich a capital growth star in the past. The suburbs of Ipswich, East Ipswich, Woodend and Yamanto have all had double-digit growth in median prices in the past 12 months, while others have grown between 5% and 10%.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>I suspect it’s poised to return to the status that made it popular among bargain-hunting investors in the past.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
<p><em> </em></p>
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Brisbane's Ipswich mounting a property comeback: Terry Ryder

<html><body>
<p>Finance has always been a key of the housing market, and as we have seen over the past few years, low interest rates have helped drive record demand and activity.</p>
<p>While this is not the most glamorous or interesting topic, finance is still a dominant part of the market.</p>
<p>Just a few years ago the suggestion that we might see 3+% for some of our home loan rates may have been unlikely, still today it’s a reality. (There are advertised rates of between 3.69% and 3.89% available for terms of 1-3 years.)</p>
<p>We are now seeing finance again in the main spotlight and there’s a lot going on that buyers need to be aware of and all the constant news about rates may be creating some confusion. As a result buyers entering the market could well be facing a dilemma, because on the one hand we still have record low interest rates, but we are also seeing the major banks move in one direction while smaller lenders move in exactly the opposite direction.</p>
<p>We also have APRA taking a hardline with the banks, while the RBA considers its next interest rate move and all of this commotion will possibly affect anyone looking for a loan, and that includes investors, SMSF and all owner-occupiers including first time buyers. Concerns being expressed by APRA might be unsettling or even seen as a negative, and so possibly causes buyers to be more cautious.</p>
<p>Against this background a number of Colliers International’s clients have recently introduced a special deposit offer based around a select number of projects with those clients accepting a 5% deposit, rather than the usual 10%.</p>
<p>The projects covered by this offer are Bay Pavillions – Lane Cove, Imperial – Hurstville, Atmosphere – Castle Hill, Altitude – Blacktown, The Chelsea – Kensington and 88 Alfred Street – Milsons Point. The offer has been well received in particular among buyers trading an existing property, where the costs of a move do mount up.</p>
<p>It’s not always possible to find $200,000- $250,000 as a cash deposit on a $2m plus apartment, and so the ability to exchange contracts on a 5% deposit has proved a popular idea, and similar offers are set to become more common.</p>
<p>Small Lenders Cut Rates</p>
<p>While the big four banks have recently increased their home-loan rates, ten smaller lenders last week cut some of their rates.</p>
<p>The cuts are for 1-3 year fixed mortgages rates, with cuts up to 74 basis points. This means that the gap between the highest standard variable rate and lowest 1-year fixed term is 260 basis points. It’s easy to appreciate why this is important when securing a $1 million mortgage.</p>
<p>It’s reasonable to expect that these cuts might spread as competition between lenders increases and institutions look to keep their customers and attract new ones. This competition usually involves a basket of products such as insurance, but is good news for buyers.</p>
<p>Still it does cause some head scratching as buyers weigh up the loans on offer and if the market slows other non-lender incentives may start to emerge.</p>
<p>The cuts by the smaller lenders are also a bet that they expect the Reserve Bank of Australia will make more rate cuts, or at least hold steady. Still while the prospect of an official interest rise looks very remote for some time, further cuts are not assured, because we may well be at the low point of the rates cycle. It remains common sense however that anyone looking for finance should do a lot of research and shop around for the best rate and terms.</p>
<p>Big Banks In Step With Rate Increases</p>
<p>The big four banks have all increased mortgage rates while the Reserve Bank of Australia is still expected to cut the cash rate, although this may roll over until 2016. And so where do the different banks now stand with their home loan rates?</p>
<p>ANZ Banking Group has raised interest rates by 0.18% points, its standard variable rate for owner-occupiers is now 5.56%, and for property investors 5.83%.</p>
<p>Westpac has increased its variable rate by 0.2% points. Commonwealth Bank has made a 0.15% point increase and National Australia Bank a 0.17% point increase.</p>
<p>These increases, although very modest, appear to have had the immediate effect on borrowers making them think twice about locking-in interest rates. The reason is that with rates so low on a pro-rata basis a further cut or increase of say 25 base points would be either a blow or a bonus for anyone on a variable rate.</p>
<p>One side result of all this jumping about with rates is that all lenders are also promoting incentives aimed at getting customers to switch between lenders with various cash and rebate incentives on offer. Borrowers can of course have a bet each way and combine fixed and variable rate, and this does appear to be a trend.</p>
<p>SMSF and Investors Face Controls</p>
<p>Tied up in this interest rate mix APRA has instructed the banks to reduce their lending to investors and SMSFs.</p>
<p>This move has had an immediate impact on demand from these two groups, and in part also introduced the requirement for bigger deposits. This tightening of lending restrictions has also seen some of the banks pulling out of this sector.</p>
<p>These changes come at a time when according to the ATO over the past two years there has been a more than five-fold increase in SMSF debt to about $15.6 billion.</p>
<p>The SMSF sector is larger and is estimated to have total assets of $562 billion currently under management and so changes among this group has the potential to impact demand for investment properties.</p>
<p>APRA Keeping Watch</p>
<p>All four banks have each blamed the recent home loan increases outlined on APRA’s requirement for them to hold more capital to cover each bank’s mortgage loan books, which now form a big chunk of their loans, with the extra funds earmarked as a potential buffer against any future financial shocks.</p>
<p>Still it’s the customer facing higher charges and in the housing market that always appears to be the case, as is demonstrated time and again with stamp duty.</p>
<p>APRA’s sharper surveillance of bank lending follows many years when the RBA had ascribed a positive view of the conservatism of Australia’s big banks, that view may have been relevant at the time, but now with so much exposure to the housing market possibly not now.</p>
<p>The tightening of bank lending standards since the global financial crisis has improved the underlying muscle of their loan books. This is an important result if adverse economic circumstances were to creep upon us again.</p>
<p>However a tighter rein on lending and a competitive interest rate outlook looks set to deflate any prospect of a housing bubble, which as demand softens now appears improbable, and that has to be seen as a positive.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Peter Chittenden is managing director for residential of Colliers International. He can be contacted <a href="https://www.projectagenda.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

pchittenden-eLqUUC8TWW

Finance back in the spotlight: Peter Chittenden

<html><body>
<p>Last week one of my project managers used an interesting story to illustrate a point about being patient when developing property.   <span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Rich is a country lad brought up on a farm in rural NZ… no it wasn’t a sheep station. Lucky for me, he decided to ‘cross the ditch’ and settle in Australia to make his fortune in developing property in the Hunter Region of NSW. He was working with one of my builders when I discovered his expertise. It was some time later that we ended up working together. </p>
<p>The message from Rich’s story was simple – “Pushing too hard at the wrong time can cause problems rather than solutions.”  <span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>The message came about whilst discussing how we could fast track lodgement of a particular Development Application.  As project managers I knew we were doing all we could.  I also knew that the other people involved; our builder and engineering consultants, were too.  We wanted to illustrate this to our client.  And then Rich sat down with a steaming cuppa in his hand and spun me a yarn.</p>
<p>I thought I’d share his tale because it made sense, even to a city gal like me.  Hope you enjoy it as much as I did...</p>
<p>Rich:  On the farm we never had a dog to move the cows into the milking shed. But our neighbours did and they were always in a hurry to get the milking done for the day. One day I asked Dad; “Why don’t we have a dog to chase the cows like our neighbours?” </p>
<p>He responded by saying, “Son, when a dog chases cows, by the time they arrive at the milking shed, they’re all nervous and tense because that dog has been snapping at their heels, barking and generally causing them grief. Because of this, those cows never milk for long and as a consequence, they don’t produce much milk.”</p>
<p>Rich explained that what those stressed out cows did was to produce a lot of crap. The cow manure mounted up quickly and ended up covering the shed while they stood waiting to be milked. <span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>The neighbours with dogs always finished milking earlier than us, but spent more time cleaning up their milking shed at the end.  They produced very little milk. </p>
<p>When it was all washed up and done, we always finished around the same time as the neighbours. Although our cows milked longer, we had less to clean up and we always produced a lot more milk. </p>
<p>Relating this back to our property development situation, the bottom line was if we did things properly and not rush the procurement and planning stages of the process, the delivery and close out will move along smoothly and end up producing a better, more profitable ‘on time’ result. </p>
<p>My take out of Rich’s yarn: There are times for snappy dogs, but use them sparingly and intelligently. </p>
<p>Property Bloom understands the need for speed, as do our builders.  At the end of the day we all want to complete the project quickly.  But what we really want to ensure is a development that is well planned, delivered efficiently and on budget - and hopefully with very little crap to clean up at the end!</p>
<p><em> </em></p>
<p><em>Jo Chivers is chief executive officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

Milking the property development process: Jo Chivers

<html><body>
<div>The ABS released its Detailed Labour Force figures for October 2015 which provided further detail on the extraordinary rate of job gains in New South Wales, where employment has grown at an electric pace over the past year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney recorded another strong month of gains and has created +85,000 positions over the year to October. Interestingly after a fairly dismal four years, the rest of the state has also created +51,000 new roles. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of Australia's other major labour markets Melbourne (+78,000) and lately the improving Greater Brisbane region (+43,000) have accounted for the bulk of new positions.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/20/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/20/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>By contrast over the past five years since October 2010 total employment in Adelaide has declined by 5,500.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Unemployment divergence</span></strong><br><br><div>Looking at capital city unemployment rates on a rolling annual basis shows that while unemployment rates are rising in Perth and Adelaide, elsewhere they have been declining.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/20/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/20/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Sydney has been the king of employment gains in recent times, and as such recorded an unemployment rate for October of just 4.7 per cent across the Greater Sydney region.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the past year some of the consistently lowest unemployment rates in Australia have been seen in Sydney's Northern Beaches (2.5 per cent), Eastern Suburbs (3.2 per cent), North Sydney &amp; Hornsby (3.7 per cent) and Inner West (4.3 per cent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/20/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/20/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>At the other end of the scale the unemployment rate in Adelaide continues to trend up to well above 7 per cent, with further jobs losses subsequently reported in the month of November in the struggling state of South Australia.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/20/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/20/A4.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>After a lift in unemployment as the resources capital expenditure boom passed its peak, Greater Brisbane has seen a pleasing improvement in its local economy.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Employment gains have picked up to a solid pace and the rolling annual unemployment rate has trended down from 6.3 per cent to 5.9 per cent through this calendar year to date.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/20/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/20/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Mining regions suffer</span></strong><br><em><br></em><em>Commsec</em> put out a usueful reseach note which reported that mining regions - and coal mining regions in particular - have suffered, with jobless rates in the Hunter Valley and Mackay having broadly doubled.<br><br>This in itself comes as no great surprise - I predicted as much here on this blog 14 months ago.<br><br>Other regions with elevated levels of unemployment have included Wide Bay, Logan-Beaudesert, Adelaide North, Townsville, and Cairns.<br><br>The news for regional Australia is far from all bad, however.</div>
<div>
<br>While there is no doubt that many parts of regional Queensland are doing it very tough, there have been improvements in unemployment rates in the Wide Bay region, the Hunter Valley, Newcastle &amp; Lake Macquarie, and Geelong (and possibly several other regions, subject to the vagaries of sampling variability).<br><br>Indeed, after some ugly results early in the year the figures reported for regional unemployment have generally improved of late, so perhaps some of the mining fallout is now in the rear view mirror, as contractors migrate back to their respective capital cities.<br><br>That said, total regional employment growth outside New South Wales (and to some extent Queensland) has been weak, while new roles may also be lower paid than those which they replaced.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Mining regions struggle: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>Total construction work done in Australia has declined by 3.7% over the past year in seasonally adjusted terms. Let's take a look in two short parts at what this actually means.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 1 - Total construction</span></strong><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>
</div>
<div>Total construction work done in the third quarter of 2015 declined by 3.7% to $49 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite a lift in residential building work done (+2.0%), there was a decline in non-residential building (-1.9%), and as widely expected engineering construction fell sharply (-7.3%) to be -11.7% lower over the year.<br><br>The green shaded area which records construction work done in chain volume measures terms shows that the unwinding of the resources construction boom has a way to run yet. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Quarterly engineering construction work done has declined from a peak of $34 billion to around $25 billion, but given the weakness in commodity prices - and given that in the same quarter a decade ago activity was just $13 billion - the decline surely has a long way to go.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/26/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/26/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The decline in engineering construction this quarter was driven by an overdue reversal in Western Australia, and to a lesser extent a decline in Queensland, as mega-projects begin to wind down. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Activity in the Northern Territory continues to track at a historically exceptionally high level of $2 billion, accounted for primarily by the massive Ichthys LNG project.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/26/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/26/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>While non-residential building and major renovations have contributed little of significance to the rebalancing of the economy, new house building and "other residential" building (apartments, units, townhouses) have effectively done everything that could have been expected of them in response to low interest rates.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Total building work done of $24 billion represents a solid 6.4 per cent increase over the year, with no thanks to the non-residential sector.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/26/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/26/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>These high level numbers should present an idea of some of the challenges facing the economy given that housing starts are projected to decline from pretty much now, while the decline in engineering construction may only be half way done. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Even now I'm still not sure anyone really has a satisfactory answer for what is going to fill this gaping hole while commodity exports ramp up. Given the expansion of Australia's population the obvious answers should come under the heading of "infrastructure" but if there's a coherent plan for that being discussed anywhere I haven't heard of it.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 2 - Building work by state</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria has been the king of building work through this cycle, with New South Wales following in second place, these states being home to the two capital cities with the strongest dwelling price gains.<br><br>Indeed, Melbourne is a fine illustration of why it is important for market analysts to pay close heed to both demand and supply factors when forming their views. The Victorian capital has been building both houses and units like billy-o since 2010 - the source of a thousand crash predictions - yet vacancies and stock on market are both falling, and the market seems to be gathering momentum again.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/26/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/26/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>While there has been a reasonable response from the house building sector since 2012, approvals data shows that this market is running out of puff for the cycle, and has probably all but peaked already.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/26/A5.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/26/A5.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>On the other hand the "other residential" sector continues to surge to record heights (this has been visible in the largest cities to anyone with a working pair of eyes...always knew those gauges were dodgy!), the new high rise building boom being the defining dynamic of this market cycle.</span><br><br><span>Building work in this sector is at historical highs in Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia, with over-building of high rise apartments evident in parts of Brisbane and Melbourne.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/26/A6.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/26/A6.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>If you've been following this blog for the last couple of years, you will appreciate that the systemic risks in the housing market are obviously apparent and buried within this final chart. Would-be market shorters should dig deeper here.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There have long been indicators of overbuilding in the high rise markets of inner city Melbourne and Brisbane, with a high proportion of new build sales being made offshore, especially to China.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The storm clouds were gathering for off-the-plan buyers well before APRA's intervention, but recent tightening measures to lending procedures could well be the factor which nails on the correction for this sector. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>How many buyers who put down trifling holding deposits will fail to settle if lenders demand a 20 per cent deposit prior to completion? Perhaps up to a third could be in trouble, and will be juggling personal finances as we speak. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Could get messy. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

Construction trends (off-the-plan mess) Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Property Bloom has been developing property in New South Wales Hunter Region for almost fifteen years now and it still amazes me the sheer potential this region has to offer. </span></p>
<p>As we near our one hundredth property development, I took some time to reflect on this magnificent region after some light bedtime reading I came across this week. I've shared some of these research links with you.</p>
<p>The Hunter Region has everything going for it; beautiful environment, awesome beaches, fabulous mountain ranges and bush settings, wineries, diverse economy, dynamic industry, vibrant restaurant scene, affordable housing and amazing people and community. It continues to reinvent itself and there is now great focus on making it an information technology and professional services centre. </p>
<p>Did you know that the Hunter is the first Australian region to measure it's innovation performance on a world scale?  </p>
<p>Measurements included:</p>
<p>Introducing new or significantly improved methods and processes <br> Introducing marketing or organisational innovations<br> Innovative businesses collaborating with others <br> Businesses innovating in-house</p>
<p>You can check it out <a href="https://rdahunter.org.au/initiatives/2014-hunter-innovation-scorecard" target="_blank">here</a>.</p>
<p>This week the NSW Government released its new twenty year Draft Plan for Growing  the Hunter City and it confirms all that I hoped for and more.  Hunter City is defined as ..." the metropolitan area extending from Toronto and Swansea in the south to Raymond Terrace in the north and from Newcastle Harbour in the east to Lochinvar in the west. It has emerged from the expansion of Newcastle and its surrounding towns and has a rich history and strong growth prospects for the future." </p>
<p>It has identified Newcastle or the Hunter City as they've coined the area, as Australia's next major city. Of course Newcastle is already a Australia's seventh largest city by population according to population experts </p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">When you are researching an area in which to invest in, then reading these types of government plans is key to getting a real feel for what is planned for the area. </span></p>
<p>The draft plans released identify visions, goals and actions that will guide the strategic planning of the region over the next twenty  years.  They aim to:</p>
<ul>
<li>protect the region’s most important asset, the environment</li>
<li>grow and diversify the economy to create local jobs</li>
<li>create thriving, liveable centres</li>
<li>deliver greater housing choice</li>
<li>in collaboration with councils, establish a committee to drive the coordination and delivery of the actions in the Plan. </li>
</ul>
<p>The public have been invited to have a say in this direction and you can do that here: https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/hunter</p>
<p> Maybe Property Bloom will be celebrating our century of property development sooner than expected, based on what I read about the plans for Australia's next major city; Hunter City. </p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><em>Jo Chivers is chief executive officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a>.</em> </span></p>
<p> </p>
</body></html>

Where is Australia's next major city? Jo Chivers

<html><body>
<div>Last week Reserve Bank Governor Stevens disclosed that he had discussed with his underlings whether the Reserve should do away with its apparently precise central growth, unemployment and inflation forecasts, in favour of publishing only their 'fan charts' and ranges in tables. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>By way of an example the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP) forecasts showed GDP growth returning to 3 to 4% by the year ended December 2017, with the unemployment rate forecast to decline gradually, but the fan charts show that even the 70 per cent confidence intervals are surprisingly wide. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/30/RBA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/30/RBA3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div>Noting that accurate forecasting is impossible, Stevens lamented that even if even if the central lines were to be left off the fan charts altogether, those awkward commentator folk would simply back it of the charts, which seems rather unfair.<br><br>In short, the most powerful central bank or econometric modelling can't forecast accurately what will happen over any meaningful time horizon, and neither can you!</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Ponzi scheme</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Also last week a macro market report hit the headlines likening the Australian property market to a Ponzi scheme. Australians would be forgiven for thinking that they've heard such warnings before, for the simple reason that they have, more or less continuously since 2001.<br><br>I haven't read the report in question, so am in no position to critique the content, but to his credit Lindsay David of LF Economics has previously made predictions that are <strong>specific, measurable </strong>and <strong>time-bound</strong>, and so his predictions can be judged accordingly. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Co-author Philip Soos has nothing if not longevity, rolling out his crash predictions for such a long period of time that they are threatening to see off their fifth Prime Ministerial term of office (his views were expressed in some detail in the piece "Bubbling Over: The End of Australia's $2 Trillion Housing Party" which predicted a 40 per cent crash for housing values nationally). </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>The last time anyone bothered to check the value of Australian dwelling stock had swelled to $5.8 trillion with the latest available data implying that $6 trillion is a shoo-in, probably before the end of the calendar year.</span></div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/30/Resi1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/30/Resi1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>To be fair, on the one hand dwelling prices have indeed corrected sharply in any number of mining towns and regions: Gladstone, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Dysart, and Moranbah spring to mind, and no doubt there are plenty of others.<br><br>On the other hand figures released by <em>Residex</em> at the end of last week showed that Sydney's median house price has increased from $668,000 at the end of 2010 to $1,058,500 by the end of October 2015, an increase of more than 58 per cent or nearly $400,000.<br><br>Buried under the emotive rhetoric Soos has made a number of robust arguments, in particular the illusory nature of housing shortages, which are seemingly apparent when the economy is humming along, but can wondrously vanish into thin air when market downturns happen.<br><br>These simple points highlight the perennial challenges facing macro property market research reports and forecasts: market timing and granularity.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Timing</span></strong><br><br><div>While macro research can identify downside risks and probabilities, history suggests that it is very difficult to forecast housing markets accurately over any meaningul time horizon.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator">
<span>Famously Case &amp; Shiller called the US real estate bubble in July 2003 when its index read 142.99, yet the index ran all the way to 206.52 in July 2006 before reversing all the way back from whence it came to 134.07 in March 2012 (t</span><span>he latest Case-Shiller reading in 2015 showed the index to be 28 percent above the level it was tracking at the time of the original bubble call, while homeowners have continued to benefit from housing services throughout).</span>
</div>
<br><div>
<span>There would be similar tales in Northern Ireland where average house prices all but tripled from <span>£</span>88,000 to <span>£</span>226,000 between 2002 and 2007 before crashing all the way back to <span>£</span>125,000. An obvious bubble, sure, but the timing was difficult (if not impossible) to pick. The average price today has increased again to </span><span>£</span><span>162,000, approaching double the average house price in 2002.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/30/Ireland.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/30/Ireland.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>In London we have heard crash predictions for at least the past decade-and-a-half, while despite downturns and recessions house prices in some boroughs have tripled...and still there has been no crash.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/30/London.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/30/London.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>
<span>Few would disagree that parts of Australia's housing market are seriously expensive, but timing the downturns is rarely as easy as it appears in hindisght.</span><br><span><br></span>
</div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span>Granularity</span></span></strong><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span><br></span></span></strong>
</div>
<div><span>The state level data shows that since September 2011, New South Wales (+57 per cent) and Victoria (+23 per cent) have accounted for 80 per cent of the increase in the total value of dwelling stock, while the figures for the June 2015 quarter showed that prices are declining in Western Australia and the Northern Territory.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Click to enlarge</span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/30/Resi2.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The obvious point here being that there is no "Australian property market", rather a series of sub-markets which cover 9.6 million dwellings and demonstrate very different characteristics and fundamentals.<br><br>Having observed the history of bubble predictions Scott Sumner once concluded that: <br><em><br></em><em>"</em><em>If we notice market movements that seem to align with our initial forecasts we tend to pat ourselves on the back and assume the forecasts were correct. This is one of many cognitive biases that human beings are prone to. Pay no attention to bubble forecasts. They are useless. Indeed the entire bubble concept is useless."</em><br><div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Risk markets</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Last year Soos wrote that due to it having the strongest yields Darwin has the smallest property bubble, a theory which might hold some sway in an academic vacuum, but shows a worrying lack of understanding of the real world and what caused the Top End's housing boom in the first place. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, in my opinion at any rate, Darwin appears to be the capital city with by far the greatest risk of a genuine price crash, with rents now in freefall and vacancy rates rising sharply (cf. the illusory supply shortage identified by Soos himself). </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/30/SQM.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/30/SQM.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Thin property markets such as Darwin with a relatively small population are more prone to shifts in dynamics at the margin, and as population growth switches into reverse gear by the end of this calendar year the results to the downside could be spectacular. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Other high risk markets include any number of regional areas with a residual resources capex footprint, with mining capex now collapsing, while parts of inner city Melbourne and Brisbane are suffering from overbuilding of new apartments, with APRA's lending crackdown set to leave many off-the-plan buyers short. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Even within capital city markets there are sub-markets which can be expected to experience diverging fortunes. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>For example, with the population still expanding rapidly, Sydney has a number of inner city markets for which demand is so high that any correction in prices will be met by a wave of new buyers. On the other hand, price inflation in some of the outer western Sydney locations over the past few years has been so far beyond absurd that even a 40 per cent correction might represent a neutral scenario.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Property Observer recently reported on the report by LF Economics comparing Australia's housing market to a Ponzi scheme, which you can read here.</div>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

Latest Investing Insights

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

Editor's Picks

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Latest Investing Insights

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News