Article summary

<ul data-end="785" data-start="311">
	<li data-end="459" data-section-id="5hbcyr" data-start="311">Pikos Group has released the five-penthouse collection at Skye Kangaroo Point, headlined by a two-storey sky home spanning more than 1,000 sqm.</li>
	<li data-end="561" data-section-id="1p7lq8n" data-start="460">Early buyer interest suggests the residences could set a new Queensland apartment price record.</li>
	<li data-end="667" data-section-id="1y70z0l" data-start="562">The collection includes four move-in ready penthouses and the highly customised Skye One residence.</li>
	<li data-end="785" data-section-id="yvm0y1" data-start="668">The release caps one of Bri​sbane's most ambitious luxury apartment developments overlooking the Brisbane River.</li>
</ul>

<hr data-end="790" data-start="787" />
Pikos Group has released the five-penthouse collection at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/skye-residences-by-pikos-kangaroo-point-8-river-terrace-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Skye by Pikos</a> development in Kangaroo Point, with early buyer interest indicating the flagship residences could eclipse every apartment sale previously recorded in Queensland.

The collection crowns the luxury riverfront development with five residences, including four completed penthouses and Skye One, a two-level sky home spanning more than 1,000 sqm that will be tailored to its eventual owner.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374075]

Wanting to offer a fully customisable home, Pikos is offering Skye One as a blank canvas, allowing the buyer to work alongside the developer's design team to customise the home's layout, finishes and internal spaces.

The residence will feature a 247 sqm private rooftop terrace with its own swimming pool, sauna, steam room, outdoor kitchen and multiple entertaining areas overlooking the Brisbane River and CBD skyline.

The remaining four penthouses have been completed and are ready for immediate occupation, each offering four bedrooms, expansive open-plan living areas, soaring ceilings and private lift access.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374059]

One of the defining features throughout the project is its use of Roman Classic Travertine, with more than 20,000 sqm of the natural stone imported from Italy after being personally selected by Pikos Group Founder and Executive Director Pedro Pikos, interior designer Julie Williamson and third-generation stone specialist Mario Caucci.

Pikos said the penthouse collection represented the culmination of the company's long-term vision for Skye.

"True legacy isn't measured by what we build today, but by what endures tomorrow," Pikos said.

"Our ambition is to create places that become more valuable with time, enrich the lives of generations, and stand as timeless landmarks long after we've stepped away."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374060]

Williamson said the interiors were inspired by the natural character of Kangaroo Point and the Brisbane River rather than international design trends.

"Materiality tells the story of a place," Williamson said.

"We looked to the movement of the Brisbane River, the texture of the cliff face and the warmth of the surrounding landscape to create interiors that feel understated, enduring and unmistakably Brisbane."

Positioned above the Kangaroo Point cliffs, Skye places residents within walking distance of Howard Smith Wharves, South Bank and James Street while offering uninterrupted river and city views.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=90059]

Joel Robinson

Brisbane's next apartment price record? Pikos unveils Skye's exclusive penthouse collection

Article summary

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.

The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" />

The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.

“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;

“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."

Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."

"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." />

The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.

A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.

Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" />

Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.

“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.

“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.

“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" />

Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.

With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]

DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

A proposal to redevelop one of North Sydney's ageing commercial buildings has taken another step forward, with plans for a 38-storey mixed-use tower adding momentum to the long-awaited transformation of the Alfred Street precinct.

Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority-led State Significant Development pathway, the proposal for 271-273 Alfred Street would replace an underutilised commercial building with 95 apartments, ground-floor retail, commercial space and affordable housing. The proposal was submitted by&nbsp;Tara Shore Pty Ltd, acting for the John Taylor Family Trust.

While the project will deliver much-needed housing on the southern edge of the North Sydney CBD, it also represents another piece of a broader precinct that has spent years in planning limbo.

<img alt="First look: New public domain vision underpins 95-apartment North Sydney tower on Alfred Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7e1ce1b4-38df-48ab-992f-386814d86308" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Alfred%20St%20da%20podium.png?VersionId=sC_h6w.A9VEoB98qsqowPlIoz__sBZBt" />

Despite its proximity to both North Sydney Station and the Victoria Cross Metro, redevelopment of Alfred Street has progressed slowly over the past decade as broader planning controls, zoning and building heights remained unresolved. The introduction of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway has provided a new avenue for projects to progress, allowing rezoning and development assessment to occur concurrently and unlocking sites that have long been earmarked for renewal.

Designed by Office of Cortese &amp; Gilder, the proposal seeks to do more than replace an ageing office building. The architects have positioned the project as the first stage of a wider public domain vision that would improve pedestrian connectivity and create a more cohesive mixed-use precinct as neighbouring sites are redeveloped over time.

The proposal includes a widened Alfred Street setback, new street trees, landscaping and outdoor seating, along with a landscaped through-site pedestrian link connecting Alfred Street with Little Alfred Street. The connection is intended to become the first section of a future east-west pedestrian network extending across the precinct.

<img alt="First look: New public domain vision underpins 95-apartment North Sydney tower on Alfred Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8ea39ac3-46ad-4562-b4a0-b862e91c2dda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Alfred%20St%20da%20site.png?VersionId=K7umCd21KpetEFuVfsPlnJKhUOsmTTdV" />

The mixed-use tower would comprise retail space at ground level, commercial uses on level two and apartments from level three upwards.

In total, the development would deliver 95 apartments, including nine one-bedroom, 28 two-bedroom, 56 three-bedroom and two four-bedroom residences. Twenty-one apartments, representing 15 per cent of the residential gross floor area, would be secured as affordable housing and managed by a registered community housing provider for at least 15 years.

Nine basement levels would provide 133 resident car spaces, seven motorcycle spaces and 111 bicycle spaces.

According to the Architecture and Urban Design Report, the public domain strategy is designed to transform what is currently an inward-facing commercial edge into a more active and connected pedestrian environment, creating a stronger relationship between the commercial core and surrounding residential neighbourhoods.

Office of Cortese &amp; Gilder has also prepared a broader public domain framework spanning neighbouring properties between 263 and 283 Alfred Street, arguing that a coordinated approach to redevelopment will deliver better public spaces, improved tower separation and a more connected streetscape as the precinct evolves.

The proposal comes at a time where North Sydney is slated for future residential growth. Commercial developer FiveX has residential plans for the neighbouring site at 275 Alfred Street. They've proposed a 39-storey mixed-use tower with 184 apartments, while Freecity was recently approved for nearly 300 apartments across a 51-storey building on Walker Street.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-freecity-gets-green-light-for-mixed-use-apartment-and-hotel-tower-in-north-sydney">First look: Freecity gets green light for mixed-use apartment and hotel tower in North Sydney</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-fivex-plans-39-storey-residential-tower-in-booming-north-sydney">First look: Fivex plans 39-storey residential tower in booming North Sydney</a>

&nbsp;

Alfred Street the latest North Sydney pocket to be transformed by residential development

Buyers considering a residence at boutique Gordon townhouse development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/lume-gordon-43-47-dumaresq-street-gordon-nsw-2072">Lume</a>&nbsp;now have another reason to bring forward their decision.

For a limited time, purchasers of a residence at Lume will receive a BMW iX3 50 electric SUV, valued at more than $120,000, as part of their purchase. The offer is designed to add value for buyers while complementing the lifestyle envisioned for the architecturally designed Upper North Shore development.

Scott Timmins, Development Manager at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/winim">WINIM</a>, said the partnership was created to provide buyers with a compelling reason to act.

"In today's market, buyers need a compelling reason to act now, and the BMW partnership was designed to create that catalyst. We wanted to add genuine value for our future purchasers. Choosing the all-electric BMW iX3 50 also reflects the values behind LUME, forward-thinking design, innovation and a more sustainable way of living. It's a premium incentive that complements the lifestyle our buyers aspire to and rewards those who commit early."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374893]

Delivered by WINIM in partnership with Burtonwood Investment Partners, Lume comprises 14 architecturally designed two, three and four-bedroom townhomes created for families seeking the space of a freestanding house with the ease of modern, low-maintenance living.

The three-storey residences, designed by award-winning architecture practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, have been tailored for families and multi-generational living, featuring private internal lifts, flexible lower-level spaces, generous open-plan living and entertaining areas, media rooms, and landscaped outdoor spaces with custom outdoor kitchens.&nbsp;

Inside, engineered oak flooring, bespoke dining joinery with integrated wine fridges and backlit bars, sculptural porcelain bathrooms, Parisi freestanding baths and Astra Walker tapware create interiors that balance functionality with refined finishes.

Each townhome has been designed to combine generous internal spaces with sustainability initiatives such as EV charging infrastructure, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>'s landscaped communal areas, centred around a restored creek line and native planting, encourage residents to connect with nature and spend more time outdoors.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=269527]

Rothelowman's Gary Tsui said the architecture was conceived to respond carefully to its Upper North Shore setting.

"Our vision was to create elegant, uplifting homes that draw on and positively contribute to the local character through meticulously considered design and an interaction with the surroundings."

The communal landscape has been designed as more than an open space between homes. Arcadia's Ben Newell and Kate Phillips said the adjoining reserve provided an opportunity to create a distinctive natural retreat for residents.

"Just as waterways carve their way through Ku-ring-gai's landscape, a raised boardwalk weaves through the reserve, connecting the homes to this tranquil oasis."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374892]

Located just 300 metres from <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/gordon-nsw-2072">Gordon</a> Village and Gordon railway station, Lume offers convenient access to Sydney's CBD while placing residents close to some of the North Shore's leading schools, including Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College and Knox Grammar. Lane Cove National Park, Gordon Golf Club and a range of cafés and restaurants further reinforce the family-focused lifestyle on offer, with the BMW iX3 50 complementing everything from local trips around Gordon to weekend drives and city commutes.

Construction is underway with completion expected in mid-2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7354]

Boutique Gordon townhomes now come with a BMW iX3 50

Two apartments have sold for more than $10 million at EADE Byron Bay, setting some of the highest apartment prices ever achieved in the coastal town and underlining the growing appetite for luxury beachfront apartments in Australia's most popular coastal locations.

The $210 million project by Vitale Property Group has now secured more than $70 million in sales, led by residences that changed hands for $12.75 million and $11.75 million.

The record-breaking transactions reinforce the shift occurring in Byron Bay's premium property market, where affluent downsizers and lifestyle buyers are increasingly opting for high-end apartments over large beachfront homes.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/eade-byron-bay-29-shirley-street-byron-bay-nsw-2481">EADE Byron Bay</a> occupies a rare 6,000 sqm absolute beachfront site on the corner of Shirley and Milton Streets overlooking Main Beach and The Wreck surf break, just 350 metres from Byron Bay's town centre.

The 25-residence development is the first beachfront apartment project approved in Byron Bay in more than a decade and is currently under construction, with completion expected in May 2027.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359521]

The project has attracted a mix of local Byron Shire residents downsizing from larger homes, alongside interstate buyers from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane seeking a permanent coastal lifestyle without compromising on space.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hayball">Hayball</a> and with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/alexander-co">Alexander &amp; Co</a>, EADE comprises&nbsp;10 garden apartments ranging from 284 sqm to 622 sqm, nine with private pools, five full-floor apartments and 10 rooftop residences with private plunge pools, expansive outdoor entertaining areas and uninterrupted ocean views.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359527]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/vitale-property-group">Vitale Property Group</a> Managing Partner Chris Vitale said the project's combination of scale, location and limited future supply was driving buyer demand.

"There isn't another beachfront holding in Byron Bay of this size and position that could be developed again," Vitale said.

"Buyers are responding to the scarcity and the irreplaceability of a site of this calibre and to floorplans they can't find elsewhere in the market.

"We are seeing buyers place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of the location. The sales achieved to date demonstrate that discerning purchasers recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay.

"Many are coming from larger homes in the Byron region, or from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, and are after the space, security and convenience, without the upkeep of a house."

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359523]

The Byron Bay project follows Vitale Property Group's delivery of the Mondrian Hotel and Private Residences at Burleigh Heads, with EADE continuing the developer's focus on luxury coastal developments.

Residents will have access to a resort-style swimming pool, gymnasium, sauna, cold plunge pool, concierge services and dedicated workspaces, while the project is targeting an 8-Star Green Star rating.

EADE Byron Bay is being exclusively marketed by Projx Australia in conjunction with WHITEFOX Projects.

WHITEFOX National Projects Director Phillip Rand said demand had been driven predominantly by owner-occupiers.

"We are seeing buyers at EADE place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of this location," Rand says.

"The sales achieved to date demonstrate that purchasers at this level recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay."

Residences at EADE Byron Bay are currently priced between $4.75 million and $15.95 million.

&nbsp;

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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145590]

Vitale breaks Byron Bay records with EADE sales flurry 

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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The underlying fundamentals for Australia are strong. All that's needed is a lift in the general confidence level for our economy to really take off.
Therefore, the trick is not to be caught by surprise when it does!
Australia's "recession pundits" fail to realise this only happens when planned business investment falls dramatically. But currently, miners have around $430 billion already in the pipeline.
And the rest of the business community has around $470 billion in planned investment over the next 18 months.
Moreover, China's current 9.5% per annum growth in GDP is principally being driven by domestic demand, whereas its 12% per annum figure for 2007-08 contained 3% to 4% of exports to Western countries.
Our banks have reduced their dependence upon offshore funding by a third since 2008. And they have also raised (by 25%) their contribution from domestic deposits.
Clearly, the increased level of available cash savings held by households (now at $516 billion) and businesses ($166 billion) has been adversely affecting day-to-day spending. But don't allow your personal investment decisions to be constrained by short-term thinking.
Understand that these "savings" were accumulated on a weekly or monthly basis. But once people flick on the "confidence" switch, all those funds will then be spent as massive lump sums.
Fortunately for Australia, the end of every year comes with a summer break of about a month before everything gets back into full swing.
During this time-off period, people will have the chance to clear their heads of what has been a rather messy 2011.
Bottom Line: Provided Europe makes it through to Christmas with no further surprises, Australians will return from their holidays mentally refreshed and ready to move forward strongly in 2012.
Therefore, make sure you avoid being caught up in the clamour of the New Year — and try to secure some good commercial properties this side of Christmas.
Chris Lang is an advisor to commercial property investors and gives keynote speeches and regular seminars on the best way to invest in commercial property. He maintains a blog, <a target="_blank" title="Chris Lang's blog" href="https://his-best.biz/">his-best.biz</a>, which he updates regularly about the best way to get the most out of your commercial property investment.
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chrislang-EQKojcgJPV

Next year will be good for commercial property investment

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Investors in housing have a range of options available to them: for example, cash; fixed-income; shares; commercial real estate; and annuities. Investment property is thus one solution competing amidst a menu of others for the “mind-share” of retail punters.
Within traditional super, residential real estate gets basically no portfolio weight at all. That is, super funds do not invest in established housing, primarily because they have not been able to efficiently do so. Residential property fares a little better in the $450 billion self-managed super sector, but still accounts for only a minority share of total assets.
Given the abysmal performance of conventional equities in recent years, share market promoters have been desperately searching out alternatives that will get traction with consumers.
One product that has been especially successful of late is the so-called “hybrid” security that purports to offer 8% to 9% per annum variable returns with low risk. This, therefore, competes smack-bang in the space targeted by investment property generating total, through-the-cycle returns in a similar ball-park.
Anyone seeking to purchase or sell real estate for investment purposes needs to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the competing alternatives. Today’s column will attempt to provide you with a primer on these attention-grabbing “hybrids”.
A month or two ago Woolworths issued $700 million worth of its highly oversubscribed hybrids, which will be officially listed on the ASX on November 25. Origin Energy is about to complete another $500 million hybrid issue, once again targeted at mums and dads, with an ASX listing slated for end December.
The principal marketing message seems to be that these hybrids offer a “premium” return over cash. While this is true, I would argue that it is quite inappropriate to compare hybrids to cash given the two wildly different risk profiles.
Indeed, it is almost as bad as saying a high-dividend-yielding stock, such as one of the big banks, is better than cash purely on the basis of a yield comparison. What about the fact that you are putting at risk a big chunk of the capital value of your investment when buying shares?
Any objective analysis finds that investors are getting a raw deal with these hybrids. In short, they are being asked to accept debt returns in exchange for significant equity risks.
The notion that this represents an unfair trade-off is confirmed when comparing them with the notably “non-hybrid” subordinated debt issues offered by other major Australian companies. These investments provide comparable, or better, floating-rate debt returns relative to the hybrids, but with substantially lower risk of loss.
When a smart investor thinks about the word “hybrid”, they normally conceive of an instrument that has debt-like downside protections with equity-style upside.
The Woolworths and Origin Energy hybrids literally turn this logic on its head: they lump investors with debt-like returns in exchange for equity risks. And this is not opinion: it is fact, as we shall see.
Given the favourable characteristics of these offers for the issuers, it is no surprise to see more and more coming to market. If you could get away with raising funding that has a debt cost of capital, but with equity risk-sharing attributes when things go badly, you would do so every day of the week!
Before we dive into the risks, one needs a bit of background.
Irrespective of whether a loan is “senior” or “first-ranking”, or “subordinated” or “second-ranking”, the normal lending rule is that the borrower must always pay their interest commitments.
The reason you invest in debt is precisely because (1) you get a secure, regular income based on guaranteed repayments by the borrower, and (2) if the borrower does not pay you that income, you usually have rights to force them to do so.
If the loan is secured by an asset, such as a home, you can take possession of it and recover your principal and interest. If the loan is unsecured, like these hybrids, you can normally force the company to take action to repay your interest or, at the limit, push it into liquidation.
Now let’s consider the unusual range of risks investors face when lending to Woolworths and Origin via the hybrids. And, remember, that’s what you are doing: you are providing funding to these companies, and are therefore a creditor to them.
The first thing to note is that both loans have super-long terms. Origin’s hybrids have a 60-year term, while Woolworths have a 25-year term.
As a lender, or investor in debt, your risk increases with the length of the loan term. Why? Because the longer the loan term, the higher the probability the borrower (Woolworths or Origin) will one day default.
Here Phil Bayley, publisher of the Debt Capital Market Review, adds, “There is a not insignificant risk that these [Origin hybrids] will become perpetual – any bond with a term to maturity of more than 50 years is effectively perpetual.”
Sure, they are listed on the ASX, so in theory you can trade in and out whenever you want. But that is during the “good times”. What happens if either company stops paying interest? You can bet liquidity will dry up quickly, and you may be stuck in the hybrids unless you are prepared to take a big mark-to-market loss.
 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
The second, and perhaps most significant, feature of these two hybrids is that both companies have a free option to not pay you interest. Yes, that’s right—they get to choose whether they service the interest on your debt or not. And not just for a few months. The two hybrids allow Woolworths and Origin to pay you zero interest for up to five years.
These “deferred” interest repayments then roll-up and start earning interest on interest. While this might sound OK, you can bet that if they ever exercise this option you will have a double-whammy: the listed value of the hybrids will fall significantly as the market starts pricing in the risk that the company can never fully meet its obligations under the hybrid.
In the case of Origin, there is another catch. If the company suffers a “ratings downgrade” to below investment grade (i.e., BB+ or lower), the company must automatically stop paying you interest until it recovers its investment grade rating.
The only cost imposed on the companies when they cease paying you your interest is that they must also stop paying dividends to shareholders. But this would be the least one would expect in any default event: the hybrids purportedly rank “above” shareholders’ equity, and so normally the company would be forced to use its dividends to repay the interest on these loans.
Yet Origin and Woolworths don't actually have to do that. That is, they can stop paying interest for five years so long as they stop paying dividends, but they don't have to use any of the money saved from the dividends to make good on the hybrids.
The third issue is that neither hybrid has been rated by the rating agencies. A rating would be helpful to give investors better information on what the agencies think about their true level of risk.
Ironically, Standard &amp; Poor’s has assessed this question on behalf of the two companies. Specifically, they have evaluated whether the hybrids qualify as “equity” rather than “debt”, so as to reduce the companies’ riskiness (obviously at the cost of the holders of the hybrids).
In short, the more equity and the less debt the company has, the safer it is considered to be. This is because “equity” shares in the upside and downside risk of any company’s future. When things go bad (or good), equity usually falls (or rises) in value.
What investors in these hybrids may not fully appreciate is that Standard &amp; Poor’s have given the Origin hybrids a 100% equity “credit” (i.e., they are as good as normal equity for Origin) and a 50% equity “credit” for the Woolies hybrid.
It would appear that these instruments have been designed expressly for this purpose: i.e., they pay investors a debt-like return, but lump them with equity-style risks.
Indeed, since the hybrids count as part or whole equity on the companies’ balance sheets, they may actually help lower the interest rates the companies pay on their normal, senior-ranking debt.
In this context, Standard &amp; Poor’s classifies hybrids with “high” equity content as those having “very strong equity-like characteristics. They include features that help ... improve the overall quality of the issuer's capitalisation. Investors in ‘high’ issues typically bear equity-like risk, and we would expect the value of such instruments to have a high correlation with the value of equity.”
Investors in the hybrids are likely subsidising the companies’ cost of funding in two ways: first, despite their equity features, the cost of the hybrid funding is below the companies’ cost of equity; and, second, the fact that the rating agencies think the hybrids increase the amount of equity funding the companies have on their balance sheets makes them a less risky concern, which can help lower interest rates on their traditional debt.
Superficially, there are some positives with these investments: they are both issued by companies that have strong competitive positions in their respective industries and solid credit ratings; they are listed on the ASX and thus offer some level of liquidity; both have small minimum investment sizes; and since retail investors are diving into them, it is possible that the hybrids’ required interest rate post-listing will be lower than their current interest rates, which means they could actually appreciate in value and deliver investors capital gains.
How do the returns the hybrids offer stack up against other alternatives?
Woolies priced at a margin of 3.25% above the 90-day bank bill rate, which implies a total return of 7.85%. In contrast, Woolworths’ shares are currently yielding 7.1%, but with the benefit of keeping all the equity upside.
Origin is proposing to price at around 4.25% over bank bills, which means a total return of about 8.85%. Origin’s shares are currently paying a dividend yield of just under 5% with the prospect of significant capital gains if its LNG investments pay off (and risks if they do not!).
The most revealing comparisons, however, are with the traditional subordinated (i.e., emphatically not “hybrid”) debt securities offered by listed Australian banks and insurers.
While these issues are unlisted and have a minimum investment size of $500,000, they actually offer comparable, or better, returns (or “trading margins”) with materially lower risks than the hybrids.
I can think of at least three companies that have issued subordinated, floating-rate bonds that are outstanding in the market today. The margins generated by these issues are between 3% and 5% above the swap rate.
None of these companies have the right to defer paying interest for five years—any failure to do so would be an event of default, against which investors could take action.
All these subordinated notes are rated “investment grade” by the rating agencies, which means that there are no hidden equity risks.
Finally, the term of these loans tends to be much shorter, which suggests you have less risk of something going wrong compared with the 25-to-60 year terms under the hybrids.
The bottom line: retail investors and their advisors should exercise considerable care when thinking about investing in complex hybrid instruments that carry equity hazards.
Christopher Joye is a leading financial economist and a director of Rismark International and Yellow Brick Road Funds Management. The above article is not investment advice.
This article originally appeared on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.eurekareport.com.au/">Eureka Report</a>.
 
 
 
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chrisjoye-JYhJsTrNRC

Hybrids attack housing - where to park your money: Christopher Joye

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I don’t think many will be upset to see the end of this year.  It’s not been the best of times for the average investor – a term that should apply to us all.  After all, most have some form of investment, even if it’s just a small amount in their super. 
Many markets have suffered extreme volatility – our strong Aussie dollar has undermined exporters and tested the tourist sector.  Half the year was spent with bullish predictions about interest rate rises, and then the single call of a potential interest rate cut came from Westpac’s chief executive and proved correct.  All in all nothing could be described as predictable – nothing, that is, except for the real estate market. 
Capital city prices are down 3.6% over the 12 months to September 30 according to RP Data, however such movements can only be described as marginal – especially when viewed in comparison with the stock market.  Clearance rates have been stubbornly predictable.  Week in, week out, <city><place>Melbourne</place></city> – the auction capital – has averaged a clearance rate of around 53%.  Sales agents, instead of using comparable data sourced from the last few weeks to value a property due to market movements, are able to pull comparisons from results a few months old. 
Quoted ranges for auction sales – which in the past have been dramatically underestimated as agents fall afoul of a rising market – now commonly have the final selling price falling within the range.  Weekly property editors are finding it hard to find something new and fresh to write each week, and we seem to be stuck in something akin to the scenario outlined in the film Groundhog Day. 
It’s tempting to grasp onto anything that might produce a change in sentiment.  The 0.25% official cut in rates caused such a furore in the press you’d have been forgiven for thinking Christmas had come early.  Not that it was set to produce any perceptible change – conditions in the real estate sector have remained flat.  Much of the responsibility for this is down to vendor expectation, which has continued to be stubbornly resilient against any pressure to meet buyer’s cautionary needs. 
A buyer can give every indication he’s interested in a home, and yet when the time comes to make that final commitment, a happy medium can’t be negotiated between vendor and purchaser.  Therefore we’ve seen a large number of re-listings lingering on the market and very few new listings to break the stalemate.  In particular, RP Data reports new listings down 18.6% compared with this time last year. 
In the end there’s only one reason a property doesn’t sell in the major capitals where supply is tight, and that’s price.  Every home will sell if priced and marketed correctly, but working out the best path to reach an agreement on that price takes nifty negotiation skills. Only the experienced real estate agents have the ability to educate their vendors to meet buyers’ expectation, and in this risk adverse atmosphere neither party is budging – at least at the moment. 
Furthermore, many vendors are not in a position where they feel forced to take a large cut in price. Unemployment is low, and while many may feel financial stress, let’s face it: not at levels felt in either Europe or the US. We have a sound banking system, normal interest rates, a record of good lending practices, extremely low default rates – add to the equation a rising population, and you should be able to see what’s ahead for the housing market – even if it’s going nowhere at the present time.  Long term, we’re on the way up.
In <country-region><place>Australia</place></country-region>, what really stands us out from the crowd is our passion for property.  We all know the stats commonly quoted when the question of home ownership hits headlines.  About 70% of us own or are paying off a mortgage.  Half that number have little or no debt leveraged against their principal place of residence.  Property brings up ideals wrapped in feelings of security, wealth, and a connection to the land.  Unlike many countries, you have to be a resident of <place><country-region>Australia</country-region></place> to own an established piece real estate – or at the least meet the requirements of the foreign investment review board. 
To draw a comparison, it’s now being debated in the US whether to stimulate the market by providing permanent residency for anyone able to invest $500,000 in real estate.  That’s something we wouldn’t even think to consider this side of the Pacific –drastic measures indeed. 
However, to further understand our obsession with property, you need to witness it.  For example, head to Melbourne on a rainy Saturday during which you’d expect most to be relaxing indoors, and you’ll see – as I did this weekend – spectators braving wet conditions in thongs and T-shirts to watch an auction just for entertainment value.  These aren’t just neighbours, they are people at all stages of the property buying and selling cycle – people animated by real estate. 
I don’t choose to invest my disposable income in the share market – I don’t understand it, feel in control of it, or – particularly on recent observation – trust it.  However I understand property, I can see where the population is heading and the type of properties they want to live and invest in. Even in good times, Australia – unlike the US – has avoided building an oversupply in her capital cities. 
Like many investors, I’ve ridden the false stimulating measures imposed by policies such as the first-home owners’ grant and changes to tax models that have produced short-term blips to the long-term graphs.  And agree, especially in comparison with many of the world’s falling markets, our housing on the face of it looks extremely unaffordable – but blame for this can be laid at the feet of consecutive governments that have failed to provide for a “big” Australia, and it’s not going to change overnight.  Never let it be said we’re immune from future crashes, no one is – however we’re also not immune from the many factors that have held us solidly on the world stage thus far.  
The ebb and flow of the property market may be tumultuous as we head into a new long-term phase of tighter lending regulations and consumer caution, but it will take more than this to stop the property wheel turning in Australia.

Catherine Cashmore is senior buyer advocate for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.elitebuyeradvocates.com.au/">Elite Buyer Advocates</a>. With extensive experience in all matters regarding real estate, Elite Buyer Advocates purchases and negotiates more than $100 million worth of property each year for its clients. 
Photo by Jonathan Crowe
 
 
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catherinecashmore-6LXia3pPQj

Property Groundhog Day looks set to continue, but there could be tumult ahead: Catherine Cashmore

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Shares in Centro Retail Trust have surged 26% to a high of 31.5¢ today on hopes that a revised and sweetened restructure proposal will be accepted by shareholders.
Shares in parent company <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/retail/centro-sells-adelaide-shopping-centre-following-brisbane-settlement/2011092051630">Centro Properties, which has been selling off its regional  and neighbourhood centres this year</a>, also rallied, increasing by 8.3% to 3.9¢.
This follows the retail trust offering its external investors a 10% improvement on their stake in the new entity – Centro Retail Australia – which would emerge under the restructuring proposal.
The improved offer was made after New York hedge fund Marathon Asset Management, which holds nearly 9% of Centro Retail Trust, and Sydney-based Orbis Funds Management, which holds nearly 5%, indicated they would vote against the merger in its previous form.
Proxy votes from Centro Retail shareholders on the resolution were due by 4pm today, with remaining shareholders voting in Melbourne tomorrow.
Under the restructuring proposal Centro Properties Group will be wound up, with the remaining Australian assets held by subsidiary Centro Retail Trust and other unlisted Centro funds amalgamated into a new listed property trust.
Centro faces a December 15 deadline to pay back $3 billion of debt, which it cannot meet under its existing structure. Failure by the board to win approval for the restructure will most likely cause the company to be placed in the hands of external administrators.
 
 
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lschlesinger-FZcF9M3vE6

Centro shares up after revised restructure proposal

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RP Data has given an indication of the length of tenure among recent sellers in Melbourne suburbs. The most recent sellers in Melbourne have been happy in their homes for: 
<table style="width: 470px;" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"></table>
<table style="width: 470px;" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td width="228" nowrap valign="bottom">
Suburb
</td>
<td width="160" valign="bottom">
Postcode
</td>
<td width="160" nowrap valign="bottom">
Average hold period in years
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="228" nowrap valign="bottom">
ESSENDON WEST
</td>
<td width="160" valign="bottom">
3040
</td>
<td width="160" nowrap valign="bottom">
19.1
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="228" nowrap valign="bottom">
WINDSOR
</td>
<td width="160" valign="bottom">
3181
</td>
<td width="160" nowrap valign="bottom">
17.6
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="228" nowrap valign="bottom">
IVANHOE EAST
</td>
<td width="160" valign="bottom">
3079
</td>
<td width="160" nowrap valign="bottom">
15.9
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="228" nowrap valign="bottom">
FAWKNER
</td>
<td width="160" valign="bottom">
3060
</td>
<td width="160" nowrap valign="bottom">
15.2
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="228" nowrap valign="bottom">
ORMOND
</td>
<td width="160" valign="bottom">
3204
</td>
<td width="160" nowrap valign="bottom">
15
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="228" nowrap valign="bottom">
VERMONT SOUTH
</td>
<td width="160" valign="bottom">
3133
</td>
<td width="160" nowrap valign="bottom">
14.9
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="228" nowrap valign="bottom">
EAST MELBOURNE
</td>
<td width="160" valign="bottom">
3002
</td>
<td width="160" nowrap valign="bottom">
14.9
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="228" nowrap valign="bottom">
OAKLEIGH
</td>
<td width="160" valign="bottom">
3166
</td>
<td width="160" nowrap valign="bottom">
14.7
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="228" nowrap valign="bottom">
IVANHOE
</td>
<td width="160" valign="bottom">
3079
</td>
<td width="160" nowrap valign="bottom">
14.7
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="228" nowrap valign="bottom">
NOTTING HILL
</td>
<td width="160" valign="bottom">
3168
</td>
<td width="160" nowrap valign="bottom">
14.4
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Source: RP Data
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cknowlton-QnEa6ntUYP

The 10 suburbs in Melbourne with longer-than-average hold times: RP Data

Logan takes the biggest hit among Brisbane regional cities: September quarter REIQ

Brisbane median house prices September quarter 2011: A suburb-by-suburb guide

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A national approach to thwart Nigerian property scammers is on the agenda of the upcoming meeting of state real estate institute chief executives.
Leading the push is chief executive of the Real Estate Institute of Western Australia Anne Arnold, given there have been two cases in her state in recent times where homes have been sold without the owner’s knowledge by scammers.
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/western-australia/absentee-investor-alert-nigerian-scammers-sell-%24410000-house-they-didnt-own/2011081751195">Since the owners of two properties in Perth lost their properties</a>, the WA government has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/industry-news/new-laws-to-help-protect-property-owners-from-nigerian-scammers/2011091351531">introduced 100-point identity checks</a>.
"We think if they can do it here, there is every chance they will try somewhere else,” Arnold says.
"I understand that the WA Department of Commerce has been communicating with their counterparts in other states and in fact I'm in Canberra for a meeting with my counterparts of other real estate institutes and it is one thing that I'll be raising with them."
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/residential/nigerian-property-scammers-move-to-sydney-after-succeeding-in-perth/2011090851484">Nigerian scammers also attempted to sell a Sydney house they did not own</a>, less than a month after the same scam was successfully carried out in Perth.
She says estate agents were finding that the new identity checks for people selling property have been well received by the public.
“The two Nigerian property scams that have occurred in WA in recent times have been possible because identity checks have not previously been a requirement as part of the listing process when selling a home.
“However, as technology has advanced it has become possible for scammers to fake an identity and present themselves to a real estate agent as the legitimate owner of a property they don’t in fact own,” Arnold says.
In both Nigerian property scams that occurred in Perth, con artists were able to convince the agent, the settlement agent, the banks and Landgate that they were the title holder and could sell the property.
Once the transfers had occurred and the sales settled it became apparent that everyone had been duped, including the legitimate owners of the houses.
The WA state government has since implemented a system whereby the seller of a property must produce evidence of identity in much the same way as bank customers must when opening an account.
“Some agents were concerned this new onus on sellers might meet with some resistance, especially from long term and repeat clients well known to the agent, but I’m pleased to report that generally sellers understand this new requirement and endorse it,” Arnold says.
When sellers are unable to be with the agent at the time of listing their property they must have their identity documents sighted by a suitable witness such as JP, doctor, police officer, pharmacist, etc.
“We understand that this is probably inconvenient for sellers and agents, but most people would agree that it’s a small price to avoid another such incident.”
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Real estate institutes to tackle Nigerian property scams

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{yoogallery src=[images/stories/november21garner]}
A Fitzroy North house that has links to within Helen Garner’s late 1970s novel Monkey Grip has been listed for December auction. Located opposite Edwardes Reserve parklands, the restored early 1900s residence contains elements of Victorian, Art Nouveau and Federation design features.
“Helen Garner wrote the iconic Australian novel Monkey Grip while abiding under this roof,” Nelson Alexander listing agent Arch Staver <a target="_blank" href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-fitzroy+north-108712416">says in its marketing material</a>.
“The original owner was a pattern maker and his fondness for artistic flourish is immediately evident.
“More recent occupation testifies to the creative atmosphere, with musicians and writers among the long-term residents,” Staver adds.
More than $2.85 million is tipped for its December 10 auction.
Garner’s seminal Australian novel Monkey Grip starts with the line, "In the old brown house on the corner, a mile from the middle of the city, we ate bacon every morning of our lives."
It’s been suggested it referred to a Victorian residence at 27 Falconer Street.
Garner was credited by Good Weekend writer David Laser as being the strongest post-1960s feminist voice in Australian writing following her account of communal living, drug use and single mothers caught in the chemical reactions of their own love affairs in inner-urban Melbourne.
Garner may be famous in Melbourne for her portrayal of Fitzroy, but her most recently reported home was in Flemington in the inner west.
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Fitzroy North house linked to late '70s Helen Garner novel Monkey Grip listed for sale

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The housing market is constantly in a tug-o-war between two factors – demand and supply. And really it doesn't get simpler than that. If there is a limited number of properties for sale and plenty of keen, cashed-up buyers then prices are almost certainly going to be bid up. Similarly if there is an abundance of property on the market and buyers are cautious – preferring to take time to find the 'right' home – then prices are more likely to ease.
Clearly there is no single "housing market"; rather there are countless markets, even down to street level. But if there is a common characteristic across markets at present it is that the supply of homes is up.
RP Data has data on almost every single property in Australia so it is best placed to describe what's going on. And its latest estimate is that there is 5.8 months of effective housing supply in Australian capital city markets at present. That takes into account the current sales rates as well as the number of homes on the market.
But that figure doesn't mean much without some reference point. RP Data advises that a year ago there was around 4.5 months of supply in capital city markets. Over the past four years, effective supply has ranged between 2.3 and 6.5 months, averaging 3.9 months. So it is clear that housing supply is currently relatively high.
But as always supply conditions vary across the country. RP Data notes that supply is lowest in Canberra while highest in Brisbane. However supply in actually lower than a year ago in one capital city – Perth.
So much for supply – how do you measure demand? In part it is determined by interest rates (cost of finance) but also includes labour market conditions, risk preference (desire to take on debt), rent levels and attractiveness of other asset classes. And then you have to incorporate other elements such as demand being brought forward into earlier periods – as occurred with the global financial crisis when rates were cut and incentives were provided to first home buyers.
It is clear that demand for housing has weakened over the last six to 12 months. The job market has clearly softened; Aussies have become more reluctant to take on debt, while returns on cash-based investments have held up in relation to other asset classes. While interest rates have just been cut, this is a more recent development and the key question is whether the reduction in rates has been enough to offset conservative risk preferences.
Overall it shouldn't be surprising that capital city home prices have fallen by 3.4% over the past year, especially following a period of above-normal demand and price growth in 2009 and early 2010. But with supply arguably peaking, job markets healthy and interest rates down, 2012 should be a year of home price recovery.
<h3>The week ahead</h3>
Unless the purported "mini budget" is released, the coming week will be a dull affair with little in terms of fresh economic information to provide guidance for investors. And it is a similar story in the US, although Americans are waiting for their politicians to come up with proposals to cut the budget deficit otherwise both sides of politics will have to be content with more unpalatable – and enforced – options.
In Australia, there is little in the way of market-moving events in the coming week. On Monday, Reserve Bank Assistant Governor (Financial) Guy Debelle delivers a speech to the Australian Securitisation Forum Conference. And on Wednesday he follows this up with another speech, this time to the APRA Basel III Implementation Workshop 2011. However given the topic matter, there may not be too many references to the current economic situation or implications for monetary policy.
On Wednesday the State Accounts for the last financial year will be released – effectively the report card for state and territory economies. And on the same day the Bureau of Statistics releases the Construction Work Done publication. This publication not only covers building and engineering work done over the September quarter, but it also contains estimates of work yet to be done and work in the pipeline – more forward-looking construction components.
The construction work done figures are used as an input into the GDP (economic growth) estimates for the September quarter. And if our estimates are close to the mark, construction should provide a solid boost to the economy in the quarter. We expect that construction work done rose by 5% in the September quarter after a more modest 0.7% expansion in the June quarter.
And on Thursday the Reserve Bank governor delivers his annual address to the Australian Business Economists' end-of-year function. This is effectively the business economists' Christmas party, but don't expect wild celebrations and exuberant forecasting. The main reason the economists are there is to hear the RBA Governor and, as is always the case, when the RBA Governor speaks Aussies listen carefully for clues on interest rates.
In the US, the week kicks off with data on existing home sales and the Chicago Fed index on Monday. While sales have followed a zig-zag course in recent months, suggesting a rise is in on the cards, economists actually tip a 1.5% fall in home sales. Broadly home sales are holding near a 5 million annual rate.
On Tuesday the updated (preliminary) estimate of economic growth for the September quarter is released and economists expect little variation from the 2.5% "flash" estimate. The Richmond Fed index is released the same day.
On Wednesday personal income/spending data is released alongside durable goods orders, consumer sentiment and weekly jobless claims. Income probably rose 0.3% in October with spending up 0.2% while analysts expect a flat reading for new orders of long-lasting or durable goods.
Also on Wednesday the "super-committee" is meant to come up with budget measures designed to save $1.2-1.5 trillion over the next decade. If they don't, automatic cuts will be imposed – measures that neither Democrats nor Republicans will be happy with. If the "super committee" is successful it will ensure that all Americans will be able to truly enjoy Thanksgiving Day on Thursday.
<h3>Share market</h3>
With about six weeks of 2011 left, it is an opportune time to assess how the Australian share market has performed this year. Currently the All Ordinaries is down 11% from the start of the year with the ASX 200 lower by 10.5%. Other major markets are also lower with the Japanese sharemarket lower by 16% with the German market down 14.5% and the UK sharemarket lower by 6.5%. Interestingly the US sharemarkets have out-performed with the Dow Jones up 3% and the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq largely unchanged.
Looking across the 22 Australian industry sectors, only three are currently up on the year. The best performer has been the defensive telecommunications sector (up 13%) followed by food, beverages and tobacco (up 9%) and utilities (up 2%).
At the other end of the scale, the consumer durables ande apparel sector has fallen by 39% in 2011, followed by diversified financials (down 28%), retailing (down 25%) and capital goods and software and services (both down around 20%).
<h3>Interest rates, currencies and commodities</h3>
The Australian dollar started the year just under US102 cents and it's currently only modestly lower. The European debt crisis may have raged over the second half of 2011, adding to risk aversion, but the Aussie has weathered the storm well. A broad measure of commodity prices – the CRB futures index – is down around 5% over 2011 but there have been commodity winners and losers. Gold has lifted 25% with crude oil up 7%. At the other end of the scale, base metal prices have fallen sharply with nickel down 28% with lead, zinc and copper down around 20%. Cotton has also lost 37% while wheat has fallen by 21%.
Craig James is chief economist at <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/">CommSec</a>.
This article originally appeared on <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/economy/20111121-the-big-picture-why-house-prices-should-recover-in-2012" target="_blank">SmartCompany</a>.
 
 
 
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