Article summary

<ul data-end="785" data-start="311">
	<li data-end="459" data-section-id="5hbcyr" data-start="311">Pikos Group has released the five-penthouse collection at Skye Kangaroo Point, headlined by a two-storey sky home spanning more than 1,000 sqm.</li>
	<li data-end="561" data-section-id="1p7lq8n" data-start="460">Early buyer interest suggests the residences could set a new Queensland apartment price record.</li>
	<li data-end="667" data-section-id="1y70z0l" data-start="562">The collection includes four move-in ready penthouses and the highly customised Skye One residence.</li>
	<li data-end="785" data-section-id="yvm0y1" data-start="668">The release caps one of Bri​sbane's most ambitious luxury apartment developments overlooking the Brisbane River.</li>
</ul>

<hr data-end="790" data-start="787" />
Pikos Group has released the five-penthouse collection at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/skye-residences-by-pikos-kangaroo-point-8-river-terrace-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Skye by Pikos</a> development in Kangaroo Point, with early buyer interest indicating the flagship residences could eclipse every apartment sale previously recorded in Queensland.

The collection crowns the luxury riverfront development with five residences, including four completed penthouses and Skye One, a two-level sky home spanning more than 1,000 sqm that will be tailored to its eventual owner.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374075]

Wanting to offer a fully customisable home, Pikos is offering Skye One as a blank canvas, allowing the buyer to work alongside the developer's design team to customise the home's layout, finishes and internal spaces.

The residence will feature a 247 sqm private rooftop terrace with its own swimming pool, sauna, steam room, outdoor kitchen and multiple entertaining areas overlooking the Brisbane River and CBD skyline.

The remaining four penthouses have been completed and are ready for immediate occupation, each offering four bedrooms, expansive open-plan living areas, soaring ceilings and private lift access.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374059]

One of the defining features throughout the project is its use of Roman Classic Travertine, with more than 20,000 sqm of the natural stone imported from Italy after being personally selected by Pikos Group Founder and Executive Director Pedro Pikos, interior designer Julie Williamson and third-generation stone specialist Mario Caucci.

Pikos said the penthouse collection represented the culmination of the company's long-term vision for Skye.

"True legacy isn't measured by what we build today, but by what endures tomorrow," Pikos said.

"Our ambition is to create places that become more valuable with time, enrich the lives of generations, and stand as timeless landmarks long after we've stepped away."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374060]

Williamson said the interiors were inspired by the natural character of Kangaroo Point and the Brisbane River rather than international design trends.

"Materiality tells the story of a place," Williamson said.

"We looked to the movement of the Brisbane River, the texture of the cliff face and the warmth of the surrounding landscape to create interiors that feel understated, enduring and unmistakably Brisbane."

Positioned above the Kangaroo Point cliffs, Skye places residents within walking distance of Howard Smith Wharves, South Bank and James Street while offering uninterrupted river and city views.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=90059]

Joel Robinson

Brisbane's next apartment price record? Pikos unveils Skye's exclusive penthouse collection

Article summary

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.

The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" />

The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.

“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;

“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."

Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."

"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." />

The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.

A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.

Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" />

Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.

“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.

“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.

“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" />

Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.

With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]

DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

A proposal to redevelop one of North Sydney's ageing commercial buildings has taken another step forward, with plans for a 38-storey mixed-use tower adding momentum to the long-awaited transformation of the Alfred Street precinct.

Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority-led State Significant Development pathway, the proposal for 271-273 Alfred Street would replace an underutilised commercial building with 95 apartments, ground-floor retail, commercial space and affordable housing. The proposal was submitted by&nbsp;Tara Shore Pty Ltd, acting for the John Taylor Family Trust.

While the project will deliver much-needed housing on the southern edge of the North Sydney CBD, it also represents another piece of a broader precinct that has spent years in planning limbo.

<img alt="First look: New public domain vision underpins 95-apartment North Sydney tower on Alfred Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7e1ce1b4-38df-48ab-992f-386814d86308" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Alfred%20St%20da%20podium.png?VersionId=sC_h6w.A9VEoB98qsqowPlIoz__sBZBt" />

Despite its proximity to both North Sydney Station and the Victoria Cross Metro, redevelopment of Alfred Street has progressed slowly over the past decade as broader planning controls, zoning and building heights remained unresolved. The introduction of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway has provided a new avenue for projects to progress, allowing rezoning and development assessment to occur concurrently and unlocking sites that have long been earmarked for renewal.

Designed by Office of Cortese &amp; Gilder, the proposal seeks to do more than replace an ageing office building. The architects have positioned the project as the first stage of a wider public domain vision that would improve pedestrian connectivity and create a more cohesive mixed-use precinct as neighbouring sites are redeveloped over time.

The proposal includes a widened Alfred Street setback, new street trees, landscaping and outdoor seating, along with a landscaped through-site pedestrian link connecting Alfred Street with Little Alfred Street. The connection is intended to become the first section of a future east-west pedestrian network extending across the precinct.

<img alt="First look: New public domain vision underpins 95-apartment North Sydney tower on Alfred Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8ea39ac3-46ad-4562-b4a0-b862e91c2dda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Alfred%20St%20da%20site.png?VersionId=K7umCd21KpetEFuVfsPlnJKhUOsmTTdV" />

The mixed-use tower would comprise retail space at ground level, commercial uses on level two and apartments from level three upwards.

In total, the development would deliver 95 apartments, including nine one-bedroom, 28 two-bedroom, 56 three-bedroom and two four-bedroom residences. Twenty-one apartments, representing 15 per cent of the residential gross floor area, would be secured as affordable housing and managed by a registered community housing provider for at least 15 years.

Nine basement levels would provide 133 resident car spaces, seven motorcycle spaces and 111 bicycle spaces.

According to the Architecture and Urban Design Report, the public domain strategy is designed to transform what is currently an inward-facing commercial edge into a more active and connected pedestrian environment, creating a stronger relationship between the commercial core and surrounding residential neighbourhoods.

Office of Cortese &amp; Gilder has also prepared a broader public domain framework spanning neighbouring properties between 263 and 283 Alfred Street, arguing that a coordinated approach to redevelopment will deliver better public spaces, improved tower separation and a more connected streetscape as the precinct evolves.

The proposal comes at a time where North Sydney is slated for future residential growth. Commercial developer FiveX has residential plans for the neighbouring site at 275 Alfred Street. They've proposed a 39-storey mixed-use tower with 184 apartments, while Freecity was recently approved for nearly 300 apartments across a 51-storey building on Walker Street.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-freecity-gets-green-light-for-mixed-use-apartment-and-hotel-tower-in-north-sydney">First look: Freecity gets green light for mixed-use apartment and hotel tower in North Sydney</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-fivex-plans-39-storey-residential-tower-in-booming-north-sydney">First look: Fivex plans 39-storey residential tower in booming North Sydney</a>

&nbsp;

Alfred Street the latest North Sydney pocket to be transformed by residential development

Buyers considering a residence at boutique Gordon townhouse development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/lume-gordon-43-47-dumaresq-street-gordon-nsw-2072">Lume</a>&nbsp;now have another reason to bring forward their decision.

For a limited time, purchasers of a residence at Lume will receive a BMW iX3 50 electric SUV, valued at more than $120,000, as part of their purchase. The offer is designed to add value for buyers while complementing the lifestyle envisioned for the architecturally designed Upper North Shore development.

Scott Timmins, Development Manager at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/winim">WINIM</a>, said the partnership was created to provide buyers with a compelling reason to act.

"In today's market, buyers need a compelling reason to act now, and the BMW partnership was designed to create that catalyst. We wanted to add genuine value for our future purchasers. Choosing the all-electric BMW iX3 50 also reflects the values behind LUME, forward-thinking design, innovation and a more sustainable way of living. It's a premium incentive that complements the lifestyle our buyers aspire to and rewards those who commit early."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374893]

Delivered by WINIM in partnership with Burtonwood Investment Partners, Lume comprises 14 architecturally designed two, three and four-bedroom townhomes created for families seeking the space of a freestanding house with the ease of modern, low-maintenance living.

The three-storey residences, designed by award-winning architecture practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, have been tailored for families and multi-generational living, featuring private internal lifts, flexible lower-level spaces, generous open-plan living and entertaining areas, media rooms, and landscaped outdoor spaces with custom outdoor kitchens.&nbsp;

Inside, engineered oak flooring, bespoke dining joinery with integrated wine fridges and backlit bars, sculptural porcelain bathrooms, Parisi freestanding baths and Astra Walker tapware create interiors that balance functionality with refined finishes.

Each townhome has been designed to combine generous internal spaces with sustainability initiatives such as EV charging infrastructure, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>'s landscaped communal areas, centred around a restored creek line and native planting, encourage residents to connect with nature and spend more time outdoors.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=269527]

Rothelowman's Gary Tsui said the architecture was conceived to respond carefully to its Upper North Shore setting.

"Our vision was to create elegant, uplifting homes that draw on and positively contribute to the local character through meticulously considered design and an interaction with the surroundings."

The communal landscape has been designed as more than an open space between homes. Arcadia's Ben Newell and Kate Phillips said the adjoining reserve provided an opportunity to create a distinctive natural retreat for residents.

"Just as waterways carve their way through Ku-ring-gai's landscape, a raised boardwalk weaves through the reserve, connecting the homes to this tranquil oasis."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374892]

Located just 300 metres from <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/gordon-nsw-2072">Gordon</a> Village and Gordon railway station, Lume offers convenient access to Sydney's CBD while placing residents close to some of the North Shore's leading schools, including Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College and Knox Grammar. Lane Cove National Park, Gordon Golf Club and a range of cafés and restaurants further reinforce the family-focused lifestyle on offer, with the BMW iX3 50 complementing everything from local trips around Gordon to weekend drives and city commutes.

Construction is underway with completion expected in mid-2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7354]

Boutique Gordon townhomes now come with a BMW iX3 50

Two apartments have sold for more than $10 million at EADE Byron Bay, setting some of the highest apartment prices ever achieved in the coastal town and underlining the growing appetite for luxury beachfront apartments in Australia's most popular coastal locations.

The $210 million project by Vitale Property Group has now secured more than $70 million in sales, led by residences that changed hands for $12.75 million and $11.75 million.

The record-breaking transactions reinforce the shift occurring in Byron Bay's premium property market, where affluent downsizers and lifestyle buyers are increasingly opting for high-end apartments over large beachfront homes.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/eade-byron-bay-29-shirley-street-byron-bay-nsw-2481">EADE Byron Bay</a> occupies a rare 6,000 sqm absolute beachfront site on the corner of Shirley and Milton Streets overlooking Main Beach and The Wreck surf break, just 350 metres from Byron Bay's town centre.

The 25-residence development is the first beachfront apartment project approved in Byron Bay in more than a decade and is currently under construction, with completion expected in May 2027.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359521]

The project has attracted a mix of local Byron Shire residents downsizing from larger homes, alongside interstate buyers from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane seeking a permanent coastal lifestyle without compromising on space.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hayball">Hayball</a> and with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/alexander-co">Alexander &amp; Co</a>, EADE comprises&nbsp;10 garden apartments ranging from 284 sqm to 622 sqm, nine with private pools, five full-floor apartments and 10 rooftop residences with private plunge pools, expansive outdoor entertaining areas and uninterrupted ocean views.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359527]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/vitale-property-group">Vitale Property Group</a> Managing Partner Chris Vitale said the project's combination of scale, location and limited future supply was driving buyer demand.

"There isn't another beachfront holding in Byron Bay of this size and position that could be developed again," Vitale said.

"Buyers are responding to the scarcity and the irreplaceability of a site of this calibre and to floorplans they can't find elsewhere in the market.

"We are seeing buyers place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of the location. The sales achieved to date demonstrate that discerning purchasers recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay.

"Many are coming from larger homes in the Byron region, or from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, and are after the space, security and convenience, without the upkeep of a house."

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359523]

The Byron Bay project follows Vitale Property Group's delivery of the Mondrian Hotel and Private Residences at Burleigh Heads, with EADE continuing the developer's focus on luxury coastal developments.

Residents will have access to a resort-style swimming pool, gymnasium, sauna, cold plunge pool, concierge services and dedicated workspaces, while the project is targeting an 8-Star Green Star rating.

EADE Byron Bay is being exclusively marketed by Projx Australia in conjunction with WHITEFOX Projects.

WHITEFOX National Projects Director Phillip Rand said demand had been driven predominantly by owner-occupiers.

"We are seeing buyers at EADE place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of this location," Rand says.

"The sales achieved to date demonstrate that purchasers at this level recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay."

Residences at EADE Byron Bay are currently priced between $4.75 million and $15.95 million.

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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145590]

Vitale breaks Byron Bay records with EADE sales flurry 

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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Forecasters are setting themselves up to fail when they make very exact predictions about future price growth.
I've long been puzzled by economic forecasters predicting, for example, that Brisbane house prices will grow 7.4% in 2014-15 (not approximately 7% or 8%, mind you, but exactly 7.4%) and then exactly 7.5% in 2015-16 – as QBE has done with its Australian Housing Outlook report, with the help of BIS Shrapnel.
What micro-economic event will occur in 2015-16 to cause Brisbane's average price growth to limp 0.1 of a percentage point higher in that year, compared to the previous year?
Why will Melbourne prices grow exactly 2.2% in 2015-16 and then decrease exactly 0.7% in 2016-17?
What chance the forecasters will be right? I would suggest zero (and that's an exact figure I can predict with confidence).
Has this kind of forecast ever been exactly right in the past? No. I've checked and I can't find an instance of an accurate prediction.
So why do it? Why pretend you can predict city price growth two or three years into the future, down to the last decimal point, when it's not remotely possible to be right?
The most likely answer is: to drum up a bit of publicity, comfortable in the knowledge that most media outlets will publish this nonsense without asking a single question. And even more comfortable in the knowledge that no one will check in three years to see how accurate the forecasts were.
Louis Christopher of SQM Research commented earlier this year that organisations who make big claims or extreme forecasts for publicity reasons rely on "the community's collective amnesia" to cover their tracks. In other words, they can relax, knowing that no one will bother to check on the results of their forecasts, much less hold them to account for them.
Even more alarming about this forecast report is that it is fundamentally based on data from the Real Estate Institute of Australia.
It lists Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) figures for the previous decade and then extrapolates forward, with predictions for the next three (financial) years.
The Melbourne figures are particularly rubbery. According to the REIA, Melbourne prices rose a tad under 20% in the financial year that ended on 30 June.
Such a figure is fanciful. All the other major research sources contradict it. RP Data says 9%, Australian Property Monitors says 10% and the Australian Bureau of Statistics says 9%.
Even more spectacular, the REIA claims Melbourne prices rose almost 27% in 2009-10.
As I have written previously in this column, the institute's figures for Melbourne growth are good for a laugh, but no one sensible gives them any credibility.
I've called the REIA to account numerous times in the recent past on the accuracy of its price data – and now the institute refuses to send me their figures. Fortunately, it's not difficult to get a copy of their reports from other sources.
The one thing that does make sense about the QBE report are the general themes, in terms of which locations are likely to rise and which are not.
For example, it suggests Brisbane will be the leading city for growth in the next three years, and that makes some sense. It also suggests that Adelaide and Hobart will do better than Melbourne, Perth, Canberra and Darwin, and that generally aligns with my own thoughts, based on our research.
It forecasts growth in some of the key regional centres, such as Newcastle, Wollongong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Cairns, Townsville, the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast – and that also makes sense.
But the exact numbers they have applied to those cities for price growth in the next three years? Give me a break.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> him or contact him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">twitter</a>.
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

When people pretend they can predict exact property price growth, there's a 0.00% chance they'll be right

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I've always liked the saying "can't see the forest for the trees".
It appropriately sums up so much of the distorted self-indoctrinated bias of opinion pertaining to real estate in Australia.
The debate has never been so fierce – especially when it comes to the definition of that 'bubble'. I am of the firm belief that it is those who are actual historians of the Australian property markets who are the ones with the greatest ability to call the exact path and outcomes.
If you want to end the 'bubble' debate simply ask the question: "So when do you see this bubble bursting?"
It's always the fastest way to draw the debate to a fast halt. History has shown when you closely analyse the property market machinations through the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) – Cash Rate Target interest rate changes only then can we see the significant market changes.
That being when the RBA increases the cash rate twice (not once) we are starting to see a new course being charted. Then it takes another two to four years for the affects to be seen given that is when households start to come out of their fixed mortgage periods into the higher mortgage agreements.
Given we are the best part of at least 12 months away from the first cash rate increase – which should send the alarm bells ringing – then depending on the next increase we won't start seeing any noticeable market price corrections until 2016 to 2019.
We also need to bear in mind that when the cash rate increases so does the exchange rate as that goes up in unison, which is the last thing the RBA wants to see given it's presently trying to get the exchange rate down.
We should consider that the RBA is well down the track to introducing its new macroprudential tools as well as waiting to receive (then implement) the findings from the Murray Financial System Inquiry.
No doubt the RBA would be very much looking forward to tinkering the markets with these tools so that (for the very first time) other than increasing the cash rate  it may just be able to manipulate the markets in a way never seen before. For the first time ever (as many would not be aware) we are witnessing history with these new real estate market initiatives.
Again, history will show whether or not they were effective. However, it will be fascinating to watch the outcomes.
So back to those fools on the hill who following this week's RBA decision to leave the cash rate on hold at 2.50% – they even managed to get that wrong. No it was not a record (as some declared). Even though 14 straight months is getting up there, the actual record is 17, not 16 as some would believe. Furthermore, you can only apply consecutive meetings as the RBA doesn't meet in January.
Having said that, when you go back through the history of the cash rate movements at the RBA we start to see fascinating stories evolve.
I have conducted my research on instances where the cash rate remained on hold for 10 or more consecutive meetings:
The first period of RBA cash rate holds started on 30 July 1993 when the cash rate was moved from 5.25% to 4.75%, where it remained until 27 July 1994 – in total 12 holds. Then on 17 August it was bumped up 1.25% to 5.50%.
The next run of holds, which is the equal record 17 holds, happened on 14 December 1994 when the cash rate increased from 6.50% to 7.50%, where it remained until 3 July 1996.
Then it fell to 7.00%. So we are seeing long holds followed by increases and decreases.
On 30 July 1997 we saw another 16 consecutive holds at 5.00%, to then see it drop to 4.75%.
On 5 June 2002 we saw 16 holds at 4.75%, to then see it increased to 5.25% in November 2003.
On 4 February 2004 we saw thirteen holds at 5.25%. When the cash rate was increased to 5.50% in March 2005, that was followed by another twelve holds that was followed by an increase to 5.75%.
Then on 8 December 2011 we had another ten holds at 4.75%, then saw the rate dropped to 4.25%.
We are now in the current hold pattern after fourteen meetings, so based on history it's anyone's guess what or when the next movement might be. I predict the current rate will be set for the longest period in RBA history as it will go well into the twenty something meetings.
So when you see the arguments mounting that many commentators were disappointed that the RBA hardly mentioned that ''bubble" following this week's decision – history clearly shows that the board members may not be that concerned about that "bubble".
Maybe they are more concerned as to why investors have steered clear of the stock market which, by the way, had a few massive corrections this week – although, wait a minute, nothing much was written about that either.
It all depends on what you are looking at – the forest or the trees?
As to be expected stock levels increased significantly this week – so now we finally get to see firsthand just how strong the markets really are.
Watching these numbers will be telling over the period leading up to Christmas, although I don't believe we will see anything that even resembles that imaginary 'bubble'. Time will tell!
 
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Want to know when the market will change? Keep an eye on interest rates

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A pick up in Queensland is being widely predicted, and SQM Research’s Louis Christopher expects 4% to 7% price rises for 2015.
However, there are still a number of properties in the state with strongly discounted homes.
Here are SQM Research’s top five vendor discounted properties in Queensland.
<a href="https://www.domain.com.au/property/for-sale/townhouse/qld/morayfield/?adid=2011132763" target="_blank">15/35 Kenneth Street, Morayfield</a>
<img src="/images/2014/10/15/d1.jpg" alt="">
Type: Townhouse
Current asking price: $239,000
Initial asking price: $340,000
Discount: 30%
Days on market: 169
<a href="https://www.homesales.com.au/buy/19-aminya-street/hs562185.aspx" target="_blank">19 Aminya, Coochiemudlo Island</a>
<img src="/images/2014/10/15/d2.jpg" alt="">
Type: House
Current asking price: $329,000
Initial asking price: $465,000
Discount: 29%
Days on market: 1,462
<a href="https://www.domain.com.au/property/for-sale/house/qld/west-end/?adid=2010559610" target="_blank">8 Stagpole Street, West End</a>
<img src="/images/2014/10/15/d3.jpg" alt="">
Type: House
Current asking price: $850,000
Initial asking price: $1,200,000
Discount: 29%
Days on market: 455
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.raineandhorne.com.au/rural/properties/18022" target="_blank">87 Coondooropa Drive, Macleay Island</a>
<img src="/images/2014/10/15/d4.jpg" alt="">
Current asking price: $489,000
Initial asking price: $689,000
Discount: 29%
Days on market: 1,757
<a href="https://www.domain.com.au/property/for-sale/house/qld/narangba/?adid=2011192941" target="_blank">713 Old Gympie Road, Narangba</a>
<img src="/images/2014/10/15/d5.jpg" alt="">
Type: Land
Current asking price: $319,000
Initial asking price: $449,000
Discount: 29%
Days on market: 134
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jduke-EHk3XBmHkn

Despite predicted Queensland pick up, top five properties discounted by 26% plus

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A large proportion of housing demand is currently being driven by investment.
Unfortunately in Australia we only receive information on owner occupier and investment ownership of properties every five years with the census.
Because of this, RP Data's Analytics team have built a set of rules to determine the probability that a home is owned by either an investor, owner occupier or the Government.
The Reserve Bank has specifically noted that they have concerns with the high level of speculative investor activity, specifically in Sydney and Melbourne. The following thematic maps show the capital cities and measure the proportion of homes owned by investors across each region.
The geographic trends in investor activity are very clear from these maps; investors are heavily concentrated within the inner city apartment markets.
The below maps clearly highlight that investors overwhelmingly focus their attention on inner city unit markets.
When the Reserve Bank raised concerns that there is too much investor activity taking place, it is also clear that the concentration risk is very much centred geographically within these inner city unit markets.
If we did see investors pulling out the market 'en masse' or investor demand dry up for one reason or another over a short frame of time, then there is a heightened risk of declines in market value.
Investor concentration in Adelaide's markets:
<img src="/images/2014/10/15/Adelaide-houses.jpg" alt="">
 
<img src="/images/2014/10/15/Adelaide-units.jpg" alt="">
 
 Investor concentration in Brisbane's markets:
<img src="/images/2014/10/15/Brisbane-houses-470x580.jpg" alt="">
 
<img src="/images/2014/10/15/Brisbane-units-423x580.jpg" alt="">
To see the concentration of investors in Canberra, Darwin, Hobart, Perth, Sydney and Melbourne markets, click below. 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
  Investor concentration in Canberra's markets:
<img src="/images/2014/10/15/Canberra-houses.jpg" alt="">
<img src="/images/2014/10/15/Canberra-units.jpg" alt="">
 
Investor concentration in Darwin's markets:
<img src="/images/2014/10/15/Darwin-houses.jpg" alt="">
<img src="/images/2014/10/15/Darwin-units.jpg" alt="">
To see investor concentration in Hobart, Perth, Sydney and Melbourne markets, click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 Investor concentration in Hobart's markets:
<img src="/images/2014/10/15/Hobart-houses.jpg" alt="">
<img src="/images/2014/10/15/Hobart-units.jpg" alt="">
 Investor concentration in Melbourne's markets:
<img src="/images/2014/10/15/Melbourne-houses.jpg" alt="">
<img src="/images/2014/10/15/Melbourne-units2-580x548.jpg" alt="">
 To see investor concentration in Sydney and Perth markets, click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Investor concentration in Perth's markets: 
 
<img src="/images/2014/10/15/Perth-houses-394x580.jpg" alt="">
 
<img src="/images/2014/10/15/Perth-units-403x580.jpg" alt="">
 Investor concentration in Sydney's markets:
<img src="/images/2014/10/15/Sydney-houses.jpg" alt="">
<img src="/images/2014/10/15/Sydney-units.jpg" alt="">
 
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tlawless-5VLUrbAk9s

Heavy investor concentration exposes inner city unit markets to risk

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Earlier this year, Brisbane's cost of living was reported among the world's highest at 13th, based on a survey by Expatistan – a group that analyses world-wide cost of living data.
In terms of our capitals, Brisbane came in second, behind Sydney (11th); while Melbourne placed 18th, Perth 24th, Adelaide 25th and Canberra 26th.
Yet if we break out housing – a major component of the variables measured in the survey – Brisbane's housing price points may surprise many.
The fact is that the majority of home sales taking place across Brisbane are for a price tag of less than $400,000.
And a similar trend exists across most other Australian capitals as well, including Sydney and Melbourne – also in our regional centres.
While the perception may be otherwise, the reality is that most dwellings sold Australia-wide are for less than $500,000. A third sell for prices under $350,000.
When it comes to buying property, knowledge of location price points can be helpful for investors in terms of making better property choices and maximising future investment returns.
That's because knowing how many sales take place in a particular area and price category, can provide an indication as to how long a property might take to resell; and how much future promotion and resources might be required to achieve that sale.
Price points – along with other key criteria such as value, design, site, supply and demand – are something that investors really should pay more attention to, rather than generic price growth alone.
Another way of looking at price points is to visualise the market as being shaped like a pyramid, where sales volumes are diminishing as prices rise.
The point being that in general, the more you pay for a property, the fewer buyers there are to resell to in the future.
That's not to say that the top end housing market has not seen growth across Australia.
Today, one in 10 of our homes achieves over $1 million on sale, up from 3% 10 years ago.
And one in fifty homes sells for over $2 million, up from 0.7% a decade ago.
In Brisbane, these are the latest dwelling price points:
<ul>
<li>Under $400,000 – 38%</li>
<li>$400,000 to $600,000 – 39%</li>
<li>$600,000 to $800,000 – 13%</li>
<li>$800,000 to $1 million – 6%</li>
<li>Over $1 million – 4%</li>
</ul>
Investors, especially those just starting out, would be wise to consider buying property in the larger price brackets. The old adage of safety in numbers does apply.
It's important to remember, too, that price movement is not necessarily uniform across a market. Some price points move more than others and will change, depending on the position of the market in the property cycle.
Currently, in Brisbane's recovery market, here's what we are seeing:
<ul>
<li>Properties priced below $350,000 have seen a 12% lift over the past three months</li>
<li>Those priced $500,000 to $1 million have increased more than 30%</li>
<li>And sales over $1 million are up an impressive 43%.</li>
</ul>
 Visit Michael's <a href="https://matusik.com.au/" target="_blank">website</a>, read his <a href="https://matusik.com.au/missive/" target="_blank">blog</a>, follow him on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ThinkMatusik?fref=ts" target="_blank">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/michaelmatusik" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, or connect via <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelmatusik" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a>.
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michaelmatusik-49YzLvdmNv

Forget generic price growth: it's time to take a closer look

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In my previous article <a href="/expert-insights/the-higher-you-build-the-greater-the-fall-edwin-almeida">"Reaching For The Skies"</a> I eluded to the reasons why some of the towers being built in Sydney will fall. Not in a literal sense but more so from an economic point of view.
What will ignite the primer to set off the economic property meltdown?
I believe the major part of the answer can be found amongst all the lies international investors are being told. The lies that have attracted foreign investors to the glittery shores of Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne. Like lambs to the developers feasting tables.
Under-supply, huge demand for rental accommodation and the fattest lie could well be that we still hold global recognition on the best standards for building and construction.Yeah right!! and pigs fly.
Return On Investment
The first lie being told and promoted to predominantly Chinese investors is; whatever we build, they will be occupied at a high yielding return. Simply, there will be a high rental return on the amount of money invested. An argument highly supported by the promoters of tales that persuaded many to believe stories of, under-supply due to substantial population growth. We build it, you buy it and we will fill them.
Nonetheless, investors bought and continue to buy. To sweeten the deal, rental guarantees were introduced. The 12 month rental guarantees given to investors in the past, are no longer sustainable due to increased property prices.
To accommodate for the now non attractive 12 month guarantees, we have seen a shift from the 12 month guarantees, to offerings of up to 3 years by some property marketing companies. An increase of time to the guarantee, to account for the rising cost of the property in order to keep feeding the investor’s greed and maintain the illusion of high performing returns.
The first proposition, may have been true in part and in the past. However, the tide has now turned due to the word being spread about high yielding returns, therefore, fueling a greater frenzy of speculative buyers.
An increase of buyers has led to greater demands to build more apartments, and now we have gone past saturation point. It’s certainly being felt in Brisbane, with more than 30,000 apartments about to be completed in the next 12 months.
Sydney, although a little slower, is by all means not too far behind. The only difference is the QLD market is mainly fueled by local investors: SMSF’s, first time mum-dad investors that attended wealth seminars and by Sydneysiders that have made small fortunes with new realized equity in their homes. Yes, not to mention the foreign investor.
Two outcomes have emerged; the first, over supply of property which is now starting to create concerns among property management teams as rental yields fall. The second, evidenced by our own property management teams and other office’s is the increase in percentage vacancy rates.
Get Rich Quick Schemes
The get rich quick schemes seemed to run at all levels. From the Marketing Agents to the developers to even the investors themselves.
The Marketing Agents, and I purposely avoid in calling these companies Real Estate Agencies, are receiving up to 10% or close to $50,000-$60,000 commissions on sales of $700,000 properties. These exuberant commissions encourages these agencies to exploit the international investor. Their own mates, family and friends.
The Investors on the other hand, have made some serious money. The ones that got in early that is. The ones that bought in markets where the values only reached $600,000 at the time and they were receiving $550/week rentals.
The newbies however, are now coming in to the same markets and with price tags of $850,000 – Hey stupid! The rents are still $550/week.
The developers, for the purpose of this article I will only concentrate on the NEW BREED (NB) of developers. The NB are also international investors that have no history in construction but have found a way to milk the system at a higher level. They have bought with them so much uncertainty and low level workmanship, it is staggering how some of their buildings pass certification requirements.
Unfortunately some of our local developers have been fanning the flames of this hot property market. Can you blame them? After all, they are running a business. Part of me does and another part of me doesn’t blame them. The part that does, is the side that questions the ethics around "marketing fees" to entice the International Investor by the Property Marketing Companies. Along with this, is the commissions paid to financial planners and the finance industry to also market some projects.
What will level this market will be no different to what we saw 10 years ago: oversupply, vacancy rates on high projections and the ongoing costs to investors to repair bad workmanship. Again I say, the only difference is; the towers are higher, deeper and bulkier. The higher they build, the greater the fall.
EDWIN ALMEIDA is licensee in charge of <a href="https://www.just-thin.com.au/" target="_blank">Just Think Real Estate</a>.<a href="https://www.just-thin.com.au/"> </a>
He is also the creator of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/JustThinkProperty" target="_blank">Oz Real Estate.TV</a> and a presenter for <a href="https://propertyinvestingvault.com/" target="_blank">propertyinvestingvault.com</a>.
 
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ealmedia-arK4DBYLjS

The higher the building the greater the fall: Edwin Almeida

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Melbourne’s booming auction market, with a record 40,000 auctions last year, attracts headlines. But behind the scenes are the quiet achievers: private sales, actually the means by which most homes across Victoria, including in Melbourne, are sold.
While the number of auctions has grown, with vendors seeing the high prices obtained at auction by others and wanting that for their own home, more than 60 per cent of all sales in Melbourne last year were private sales. This resulted in close to 50,000 Melbourne homes being sold through private sale over the 12 months.
While auctions can be favourable to the seller, with the white heat of competition encouraging ever-higher bids and buyers to be highly assertive, private sales avoid that stress. They also allow a longer marketing period than an auction campaign, which is generally a month. 
Traditionally outer suburbs and regional areas, where homes can take longer to sell than in the highly competitive inner suburbs of Melbourne, have been the main centres of private sale activity. 
And last year was no different, with almost all of the top private sale suburbs in Melbourne’s outer region.
The trend has continued in 2015 – with the outer eastern, southern and western suburbs leading the way. Among those with the most private sales this year have been Frankston with 635, Pakenham with 620, Point Cook with 571 and Croydon with 470. Also on the top 10 list were: Mornington, Mooroolbark and Mount Martha.
The active property market in Mildura resulted in 560 private sales for that year, Victoria’s fifth highest total.
What may come as a surprise to some is the number of private sales in Melbourne city itself. In the city of Melbourne there were 717 private sales – a result of the large number of apartment private sales in Docklands and the CBD. Another top performer was the very large middle north suburb of Reservoir, which racked up the highest auction total for the year, and also had the eighth highest total private sales: 409.
While private sale levels are still extremely high, there has been a steady growth in auction levels statewide. So while in January and February last year just 12 per cent of all sales in outer suburbs were by auction, that had risen to 18 per cent in the first two months of this year. Areas with the largest increase in sales by auction included Rosebud, Craigieburn, Edithvale, Springvale and South Morang.
This reflects the value offered by outer suburbs, where population growth is leading to improved infrastructure including shopping centres such as the expanded centre in Craigieburn, transport hubs such as the station at South Morang to which the Epping line was extended, and recreation facilities.
Affordability is also a driver of outer suburban sales in 2015. Melbourne’s most affordable locations at present include Werribee, Hoppers Crossing, Carrum Downs, Wyndham Vale and Hampton Park.
While clearance rates – that is the percentage of properties at auction that sell – are a measure of the health of the auction market, days on the market are the comparable measure for private sales. All the suburbs in which properties sold fastest in February were in outer Melbourne – and, more specifically, outer eastern Melbourne. Top of the list was Croydon Hills with 17.5 days on the market, followed by Croydon South with 19 days and Montrose and Ringwood, both with 21.
Others on the list of the top 10 fastest selling areas were the Basin, Chirnside Park – the biggest improver compared with January, down by 2.5 days to 23, Mooroolbark, Yallambie, Scoresby and Kilsyth.
<a href="https://reiv.com.au/news-resources/latest-news/ceo-steps-down-after-16-years" target="_blank">Enzo Raimondo is the REIV Chief Executive Officer</a>
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enzoraimond-7fvRFHPR52

Melbourne auction versus private treaty numbers: REIV's Enzo Raimondo

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What is it about Sydney people that makes them so sensitive to interest rates when no one else in Australia is?
If we can believe popular analysis, interest rates cuts are like steroids to Sydney residents. They get all pumped up by them and charge around lifting things that were financially too heavy for them previously.
But the 81% of Australians who live outside Greater Sydney are immune. They’re exposed to the same stimulus but it has no visible effect on them. Curious modern phenomenon.
Anyone with a keen eye for observation and an inquiring mind – the qualities that journalists used to have, back in the day – might wonder why Canberra people, for example, have such a strong immunity to the rates steroid.
It certainly made me wonder, so I checked to make sure they have the same interest rates in the national capital as they have three hours up the road in the NSW capital. And, sure enough, they do.
And guess what else? They have the same interest rates in Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Darwin, Adelaide and Hobart as well. 
I had assumed rates must be much higher in all those places because, according to the latest figures from cor blimey RP Data, apartment prices are falling in Perth, Darwin, Hobart and Canberra – and have barely moved in Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide, whereas they’re up 10% in Sydney.
Here are some of the headlines since the RBA interest rates decision last week:
<ul>
<li>Rate cut adds to Sydney buying frenzy</li>
<li>Rate cut dangerous for property market</li>
<li>Rate cut could destabilize property market</li>
<li>RBA rate cut will put pressure on property market</li>
</ul>
Some of the reaction to the interest rate reduction bordered on the ludicrous. We had a slightly hysterical president of the Real Estate Institute of NSW, Malcolm Gunning, claiming the rate cut meant young people would be forced to leave Sydney. Sam White from Loan Market said the rate cut would make the market unsustainable and unaffordable.
We even had Adelaide pundits claiming the rates decisions would fire up the local property market. Why all those previous rate cuts had failed to achieve that was not explained. 
We’ve had almost four years of falling interest rates and none of those previous cuts have generated a boom in Adelaide – or anywhere else in capital city Australia, apart from Sydney - but this latest reduction is going to “fire up” the market, apparently.
So where did this notion that interest rates were the prime factor in residential real estate dynamics originate? Yes, you guessed it – it’s the love child of our under-class of chattering economists.
Watching an economist discuss real estate is like listening to a close friend of mine discuss rugby. She understands that a ball is involved but she’s never sure whether it’s round or oval - or whether you need to kick it over the bar or under it. She is sure about one thing, though - that it doesn’t make a lot of sense and far too many people are obsessed with it.
I recently spoke to a boardroom luncheon in Sydney, attended by 12 or 15 people with “economist” somewhere in their titles and all from big name companies and institutions. What they collectively knew about residential property could be written on the back of a postage stamp in crayon. In the minds of most of them, there’s a national property boom and it’s caused by low interest rates.
They’re the masters of the universe and they know close to nothing.
There’s another thought about this whole obsession with interest rates and the belief they are central to movements in property markets. Investors who are fundamentally driven by interest rate cuts are not thinking clearly. The current level of interest rates is largely irrelevant to sensible decision-making about property investment.
Anyone who borrows now to invest will face dozens of interest rate changes over the life of their loan. The current level of rates is not a core consideration. The core question for investors should be: if rates at some point rise 2 or 3 percentage points above their current levels, can I still afford the repayments?
If you’re charging around like the steroid-induced herd animals in Sydney, you’ve missed that fundamental point.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting">Twitter</a>.
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Sensitive Sydneysiders reel at rates: Terry Ryder

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released data mid-May which revealed that 48.7% of state and local government taxation revenue over the 2013-14 financial year came from property related taxes.
The data showed that over the year, state and local governments collected a record $40.485 billion in taxes from property related sources. In comparison, they collected $21.341 billion in taxes from employers, $11.208 billion in taxes from the provision of goods and services and $10.024 billion in taxes on the use of goods and performance of activities.
As this shows, at a state and local government level property taxes are the largest source of revenue. Although property accounted for 48.7% of total tax revenue over the year, it has previously accounted for as much as 50.6% of all revenue in 2003-04.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4780" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Chart-13.jpg" alt="Chart 1" width="500" height="183">
The total value of property related taxes increased by 12.6% over the most recent financial year. This represents the greatest year-on-year increase in property related tax revenue since it rose 14.3% over the 2009-10 financial year. In comparison, taxes on employer’s payroll and labour force rose by 2.8%, taxes on the provision of goods and services rose 1.2% and taxes on the use of goods and performance of activities rose 3.5%. Overall, state and local government tax revenue increased by 7.2% over the year.
With home values nationally beginning to rise in June 2012, it is clear that state and local governments are a major benefactor of the strong housing market conditions. With higher home values, taxes such as land tax, municipal rates and stamp duty on conveyances all increase. Conversely when housing market conditions shift and value growth slows or values falls the largest source of tax revenue (property) is adversely affected.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4781" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Chart-22.jpg" alt="Chart 2" width="500" height="513">
Of the $40.485 billion in property related tax revenue collected in 2013-14, 40% came from municipal rates and 36% came from stamp duties on conveyances. Land tax was the only other sizeable contributor to property related tax accounting for 17% of revenue. Over the year the most significant increase in property related taxes came from stamp duty, up by 24.4%. The amount of tax revenue collected from municipal rates increased by 5.3%, and land taxes increased by 2.8%.
Property related tax revenue is only collected by those who own properties. Ultimately every property is owned by someone, some as an owner occupier and some as an investor. The taxes levied against property are typically only payable by the owner of the property. Given this, those who choose to rent rather than own property pay no tax on property. Not to mention the fact that the cost of renting is typically much lower than the cost of owning.
State and local governments have clearly experienced a significant revenue boost via the improvement in the residential housing market over the year. Stamp duty in particular has seen a significant rise. With sales volumes and property values rising there have been more sales to receive stamp duty from and at a higher price which also increases the stamp duty collected.
Of course, the issue with stamp duty is that it is a tax only collected across those properties which sell. From a residential perspective this is just 5% to 7% of the total housing stock over a given year. Stamp duty also acts as a disincentive for home owners to transact property on a more regular basis because it is a tax paid on a new purchase.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4782" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Chart-32.jpg" alt="Chart 3" width="500" height="182">
Looking more closely at stamp duty over time you can see just how inefficient the tax is, being heavily reliant on the performance of the housing market. The 2013-14 financial year was a bumper one for stamp duty revenue thanks to strong growth in home values and an increase in sales activity. As we’ve seen in the past, these good times won’t last forever and eventually state and local governments will feel the impact of a downturn in tax revenue as the housing market cools.
I have previously argued that the removal of stamp duties would encourage greater mobility of residents and provide less of a barrier to those home owners looking to upgrade or downsize. Of course state and local governments would lose 36% of their property related tax revenue and 17% of their total taxation revenue. 
Replacing stamp duty with a blanket land tax, another tax, would likely be unpopular and you’d have to consider how equitable that would be particularly for those who have recently paid stamp duty (if a blanket land tax regime were to be introduced it would likely be accomanpied by compensation or discounts to those who recently purchased under the stamp duty regime). 
To put a blanket land tax into perspective to cover the $15.976 billion in stamp duty revenue over the 2013-14 financial year, each residential dwelling would have to pay $1,705.60 based on the ABS estimate of 9,366,800 residential dwellings as at June 2014. 
Keep in mind that stamp duty isn’t just payable on residential property transactions and more revenue is available from commercial and industrial properties or the cost per home could be reduced.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4783" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Chart-42.jpg" alt="Chart 4" width="500" height="149">
Over the year, stamp duty revenue was higher in each state and territory except for the Australian Capital Territory (-1.7%). Across the other states the rise in stamp duty revenues were recorded at: 32.3% in New South Wales, 27.9% in Victoria, 27.3% in Queensland, 2.1% in South Australia, 9.5% in Western Australia, 10.8% in Tasmania and 12.7% in the Northern Territory.  
According to the CoreLogic RP Data Home Value Index, home values rose across each capital city except for Darwin over the year with the largest rises in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. Clearly home value rises across the capital city markets have had a positive effect on stamp duty revenues.
The data highlighted shows that property related taxes are the most important source of revenue for state and local governments, accounting for 48.7% of their total taxation revenue. The issue of course is that these levels of government are looking to constantly grow their revenues. The two main sources of property related revenue are rates and stamp duty. Rates can be grown by encouraging a greater number of ratepayers into a region (create more housing) and stamp duty can only be lifted by changing the rates or encouraging higher prices and/or more sales. 
In certain regions increasing the supply of ratepayers is not possible so it is clear that stamp duty is an extremely important source of revenue.  With capital city home values continuing to rise throughout the 2014-15 financial year, we anticipate that stamp duty will be higher once again. The question is whether governments can continue to rely on property being a one-way bet?
The ACT has already announced a phase out of stamp duty over the next two decades, and there is also discussion around a move away from stamp duty in South Australia.  The major benefit to State governments under a broad land tax arrangement as opposed to stamp duty would be the consistency of revenue flows rather than the lumpy market driven revenue which is evident under the stamp duty system.
Cameron Kusher is CoreLogic RP Data’s senior research analyst. You can read his posts here.
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Property related tax revenue surpasses $40 billion: Cameron Kusher

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At 6.00 pm on Saturday 11 October , the James Clearance Rate for Melbourne's $1 million plus property was 66% on the 32 auctions we covered.
Our overall summary of Melbourne's million dollar-plus auctions:
<ul>
<li>Ducks (auctions with no bidders): 18%</li>
<li>Lone Rangers (auctions with one bidder): 18%</li>
<li>Norms (auctions with two or three bidders): 36%</li>
<li>Volcanoes (four or more bidders at auction): 28%</li>
</ul>
Biggest auctions:
<ul>
<li>Camberwell, 73 Bowen Street (Paul Richards, Bekdon Richards), under hammer, $3,600,000, 6 bidders. <img src="/images/2014/10/16/Bowen-597x399.jpg" alt=""> Auction of the day: a huge crowd of more than 100 people at the auction of 73 Bowen Street. 
</li>
<li>Hawthorn, 74 Robinson Road (Scott Patterson, Kay &amp; Burton), under hammer, $2,820,000, 4 bidders, pictured below. <img src="/images/2014/10/16/hawthorn.jpg" alt=""> 
</li>
<li>Albert Park, 382 Montague Street (Kaine Lanyon, Marshall White), under hammer, $2,750,000, 3 bidders, pictured below. <img src="/images/2014/10/16/albertpark.jpg" alt=""> 382 Montague Street auction shown in main picture.
</li>
</ul>
Bidder buzz:
<ul>
<li>Malvern East, 28 Darling Road (Daniel Wheeler, Marshall White), under hammer, $1,391,000, 6 bidders</li>
<li>Glen Iris, 19 Ashburton Road (Andrew Gibbons, Marshall White), under hammer, $1,910,000, 5 bidders</li>
<li>Camberwell, 20 Killarra Avenue (Damien Davis, Jellis Craig), under hammer, $1,660,000, 5 bidders</li>
</ul>
Biggest Pass Ins:
<ul>
<li>East Melbourne, 81 Wellington Parade, passed in, $4,000,000, no bidders</li>
<li>Balwyn North, 48 Tuxen Street, passed in, $3,750,000, no bidders</li>
<li>Balwyn, 1 Monash Avenue, passed in, $2,775,000, 2 bidders</li>
</ul>
 This article continues on the next page. To read Mal James' market summary, click below. 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
The post Grand Final market summary trifecta
<ol>
<li>
DEMAND It feels like there should be strong interest prior to the Melbourne Cup for good homes. We have a number of auctions we are bidding on in the next fortnight (but still some vacancies). Open for Inspections for good homes have been crowded and prior to the Grand Final, we have been consistently recording over 2.2 bidders per auction.</li>
<li>
VENDOR PRICING Many agents on the selling side are moaning about some vendors opinions on price. We have no issue with that – it's their home – it's a free country – but they are not selling. While we have bought four in the last week: <ul>
<li>A Toorak off-market apartment (Marcus Chiminello)</li>
<li>A Malvern East off-market home (John Manton)</li>
<li>A Brighton family home at auction (Regina Schmidt)</li>
<li>A South Melbourne apartment at auction (Gary Omrod)</li>
</ul>
We have also walked away from several negotiations where we have offered good money and got a reply we couldn't go near. I went through two on Saturday and walked straight out when told the price. I admire courage but a few sellers right now are into "hero" territory on asking price. <img src="/images/2014/10/16/Oct25-Super-Saturday-597x448.jpg" alt=""> Next Week is a Super Saturday and the week after, 25 October, is always expected to be a big one, but is now actually a huge one – as my feeble graph above attempts to show. 
</li>
<li>
SUPPLY Let's be happy as we are at the highest levels of good quality stock across all price levels, in almost all market segments since May 2010. And the quality spread is very good – I've been to a number of absolutely brilliantly built/renovated homes. Here are three I have rated but are currently not acting for a buying client on:
<ul>
<li>11 Malin St Kew (Greg Toogood). James Rating: 783/1000</li>
<li>3 Myamyn Avenue Armadale (Peter Bennison). James Rating: 801/1000</li>
<li>A $10m+ old classic in East Melbourne (Jeremy Fox). James Rating 800/1000</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ol>
It's a little tighter by the Bay for the classics but there is plenty out there. So if you can't find something to tickle your fancy now, then you may have to revisit your fancy or your tickle – there is a lot of good property for sale right now.
 Mal writes weekly auction reports, advice and in-depth market analysis on his <a href="https://www.jamesbuyeradvocates.com.au/" target="_blank">website</a>.
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