<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD Group</a> has set a new residential price record in Queensland with the $30 million sale of the penthouse at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/one-burleigh-88-the-esplanade-burleigh-heads-qld-4220">ONE Burleigh</a> development in Burleigh Heads.

The sale equates to around $37,500 per sqm.

The two-level, 800 sqm penthouse, featuring five bedrooms, five bathrooms, five car spaces, and a private infinity pool overlooking the Pacific Ocean, was acquired by a Gold Coast-based entrepreneur, highlighting continued demand for ultra-premium beachfront product.

Selling agent Freddie Tehle of PRD Burleigh Heads said the result reflects tightening supply of high-quality, large-format apartments in Burleigh.

“There’s very limited opportunity to secure this level of scale and absolute beachfront position in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/burleigh-heads-qld-4220">Burleigh Heads</a>,” Tehle said.

“Buyers are increasingly seeking apartments that genuinely replace a standalone home, and this penthouse delivers that with its size, privacy, and direct ocean frontage.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146358 project_image_fid=323057]

The sale comes as construction progresses on ONE Burleigh, a boutique development of 17 full-floor residences at 88 The Esplanade, scheduled for completion in early 2027.

Developed by MAYD Group and designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/mas-architecture-studio">MAS Architecture</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/sici-design">Sici Design</a>, the project has been positioned as a collection of house-sized beachfront apartments, each occupying an entire floor with around 381 sqm of internal and external living space.

When construction commenced, MAYD director Todd Mould pointed to the long-term resilience of premium coastal real estate as a key driver behind the project.

“Real estate, particularly at the premium end, remains one of the most resilient and proven long-term investment avenues,” Mould said.

“Our ambition is that anyone who buys a MAYD-built product can genuinely feel the care, craftsmanship and commitment we bring to every detail.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146358 project_image_fid=323055]

Each residence has been configured with four bedrooms, multiple living zones, a private office, and expansive ocean-facing terraces. Interiors draw on a restrained material palette, including travertine stone, timber joinery, and integrated premium appliances.

Interior designer Sici Design said the approach was to reflect the project’s coastal setting through both materiality and spatial planning.

“ONE Burleigh is our vision of luxury living, designed to bring the essence of Burleigh Heads' vibrant coastal beauty into an unparalleled residential experience.”

Residents will have access to a suite of wellness-focused amenities, including pools, sauna facilities, and dedicated relaxation spaces, reflecting a broader shift toward lifestyle-driven apartment design on the Gold Coast.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146358 project_image_fid=323052]

The project occupies a southern Esplanade site with uninterrupted beachfront frontage, an increasingly rare offering in Burleigh Heads, free from the Norfolk Pines that line much of the coastline and often limit direct ocean outlook.

Mould said the design intent was to balance that outlook with a sense of retreat.

“Living at ONE Burleigh is about how your day naturally unfolds, morning light across the ocean, coffee on the balcony, and being in Burleigh but elevated above the noise.”

The result further reinforces Burleigh Heads’ emergence as one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held and supply-constrained beachfront markets, where boutique, owner-occupier-focused developments are increasingly setting new price benchmarks.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=146358]

Joel Robinson

MAYD Group sets Queensland record with $30 million penthouse sale at ONE Burleigh in Burleigh Heads

Apartment developers in the Gold Coast are finding new, creative ways to differentiate themselves from competing projects, as new supply starts to flow through up and down the Coast.

Developer Big Projects brought in the renowned Sydney-based design studio YSG to craft the interiors for The Frederick, Big Projects' new Mermaid Beach project and YSG's first move into the multi-residential development space.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5346]

It was a strategic move for Big Projects to bring in a Sydney eye to the development.

“Our role is to give our design partners the space and freedom to explore,” says Matt Barrett, Director of Big Projects.

“We wanted YSG Studio to capture the essence of Nobby’s, to design a building that embraces life, light and connection, while creating a genuine sense of place.”

There are only 39 apartments in The Frederick, including a striking beach house, just 100 metres from the booming Nobby Beach precinct.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5347]

Yasmine Ghoniem, Director of YSG Studio, says their vision&nbsp;for The Frederick "reinvents coastal living."

“Nobby’s has such an iconic energy, it’s one of those rare pockets of the Gold Coast where the community, the beach, and the streets all feel connected,” Ghoniem says.

"Responding to the neighbouring coastline, soothing curves add a relaxing regional overlay, while unique detailing really sets it apart. It’s a place that feels lived in from the moment you step inside.”

A standout feature of The Frederick is its rooftop terrace, an uncommon inclusion for a boutique, low-rise building, where amenity is typically concentrated at ground level.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5360]

Positioned to capture panoramic views from the hinterland to the ocean, the rooftop has been designed as a series of intimate zones. It includes a pool, sauna, sun decks, workspaces and dedicated entertaining areas.

“The rooftop was conceived as a collection of spaces where residents can unwind and connect, an extension of the Nobby’s lifestyle,” Barrett says.

Architecture for the project was led by Plus Architecture, with landscape design by LDG.

SRQ Projects Director Nick Clydsdale, who is handling sales at The Frederick, says the majority of enquiry is coming from South East QLD and Victorian buyers who have been actively searching between Broadbeach and Mermaid Beach for some time.

"They’ve reviewed a number of projects, however this one has stood out for its design flair/ appeal,"&nbsp;Clydsdale says.

Site demolition is slated for this month, with construction commencing soon after. Big Projects is targeting a late 2027 completion.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=110588]

Big Projects taps Sydney’s YSG for first multi-residential project at The Frederick Mermaid Beach

Melbourne-based property developer ALTA Property has this week achieved planning approval for the adaptive re-use of a former commercial tower into a $200 million, 169-apartment project at 10 Queens Road, one of the last developable sites along the Albert Park Lake-fronting boulevard.&nbsp;

Set within one of Melbourne’s most sought-after precincts and designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser and Partners</a>, the illustrious building will offer unparalleled views across Albert Park Lake, Port Phillip Bay and Melbourne CBD.&nbsp;

The mix of 1, 2 and 3-bedroom residences will be complemented by a ground-floor amenity featuring private dining, a lounge bar, gym and wellness spaces, co-working, outdoor communal gardens, and retail.&nbsp;

The 17-storey building is a masterclass in adaptive re-use, with the existing commercial building’s façade, shell and internal structure to be retained, before high-end residences are built from the ground up in a newly built Albert Park facing addition to the building.&nbsp;

Sitting atop the building will be two 320+sqm penthouses with private rooftop terraces, which are expected to be priced between $9 - $11 million.&nbsp;

<img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa11211b-5581-43f9-940c-fc84d30a0e61" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/C_04.png?VersionId=Yhf5p_1EgGDu_zOIMFgvA8Ug8j3sTFQs" />

Architecturally, the building will feature a curved, geometric façade that celebrates and elevates the existing structure, with warm, muted tones which were selected to extend the materiality of the existing building rather than contrast it.&nbsp;

Interiors will bring together three metre high ceilings with waffle concrete in some spaces, natural timber, granite and Australian materials, culminating in crafted, generous and considered spaces that are defined by authenticity.&nbsp;

The adaptive re-use means that the Queens Road project will be a sustainability led, high-quality finished product, with a 62% saving in carbon emissions by re-using the existing structure rather than knocking it down and rebuilding.&nbsp;

ALTA Property was launched by Nigel Givoni in 2023, bringing over 25 years of experience in multi level residential delivery.&nbsp;

Melbourne’s property market growth is currently led by apartments. According to RPM VIC Apartments &amp; Townhomes Market Report (April 2026), units are outpacing houses, especially in the middle ring suburbs where median prices hit $757,500 – a four-year high that represents 2.9 percent growth quarter-on-quarter.&nbsp;

<img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="647e13d7-b4bc-433a-9bc9-fe3c3dd4f2ec" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/V_06.png?VersionId=ou4NUCWUgA3NAy.6CQJlEdKX50j3dOk6" />

For ALTA Property Founder Nigel Givoni, this performance speaks to the confidence he has in the Melbourne market.&nbsp;

“Queens Road represents a rare opportunity to continue to shape our presence in the Melbourne market.,"&nbsp;Givoni says.

"With a considered project team and a premier site along one of the city’s most sought-after boulevards, we look forward to contributing to the fabric of this established address.

“Other Australian markets are getting a lot of attention, but I believe the depth of value in Melbourne is being overlooked. The fundamentals are strong, population growth is steady and, based on our preliminary conversations with a leading builder, construction costs are beginning to normalise, creating further opportunity."

Givoni says the project is a&nbsp;highly considered example of adaptive re-use, delivering quality, high-end residences, premium hotel-inspired amenities and an architecturally striking façade, all achieved without the need to remove the existing structure.

"We are really looking forward to the market’s response,” he said.&nbsp;

ALTA Property to deliver $200 million Queens Road apartment tower

Construction is set to begin at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/orchard-mews-glen-iris-18-scott-grove-glen-iris-vic-3146">Orchard Mews</a> in Glen Iris, with&nbsp;PC Whitehall &amp; Sons&nbsp;now appointed as the townhome development moves into its next phase.

The development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/montcoeur">MontCoeur</a>,&nbsp;located at 18 Scott Grove, is now around 30 per cent sold, with completion targeted for late-2027.

Orchard Mews comprises a curated collection of three- and four-bedroom customisable townhomes, positioned within one of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>’ more tightly held residential streets. The low-density project has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo</a>, bringing together a team known for high-end residential projects across Melbourne.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366285]

The development is defined by its focus on flexible living and long-term usability. Each residence includes multiple living zones and a customisable multipurpose room, allowing buyers to tailor spaces to suit changing needs, whether as a home office, additional bedroom, wellness area or entertainment space.

Architecturally, the townhomes emphasise natural light and spatial volume, with dual-aspect layouts and double-height living areas incorporated into the design. Interiors feature natural stone benchtops, premium appliances, and a neutral material palette intended to support everyday functionality rather than statement-driven finishes.

All residences are all-electric and include private lifts and secure double garages, reflecting a broader shift toward sustainability and future-focused housing in Melbourne’s established suburbs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366277]

Outdoor connections are also central to the offering, with a mix of private courtyards and terraces extending internal living spaces and integrating with the landscaped surrounds.

The Scott Grove address places Orchard Mews within close proximity to some of Melbourne’s key lifestyle and education amenities, including Scotch College, Sacré Cœur, Cabrini Hospital and the retail hub of Chadstone. Public transport access is also nearby, with trams and Gardiner Station providing connectivity to the CBD and surrounding suburbs.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150128]

Construction to commence at luxury Glen Iris townhome project, Orchard Mews

A rare new apartment development has been proposed on the fringe of St Ives Village.

Developer Newquest Property has lodged plans for a low-rise apartment project designed by well-regarded architecture firm Warren &amp; Mahoney, which is best known for its work in the multi-residential sector in Melbourne.

The building, proposed for a 1,916 sqm site on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/st-ives-residences-3-5-memorial-avenue-nsw-2075">Memorial Avenue</a> opposite St Ives Village Green, has been designed to blend into the surrounding natural environment.

<img alt="St Ives" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5c1c7437-2fba-4345-a6d7-05321714ad3e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%201.28.46%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=KrYyMaJvNqR7vbx0xbB3Ef8sJ6FuHpmn" />

“Drawing inspiration from the pale trunks and flowering canopies of the scribbly gums and blue gums prevalent in the area, a considered material palette was developed,” the architectural design report states.

“This palette references the established materiality of the suburb while elevating it through refined finishes to achieve a more luxurious architectural expression.”

Of the 33 apartments proposed, 21 will be three-bedroom residences. The remaining mix includes nine two-bedroom apartments, one one-bedroom apartment and two four-bedroom residences. The development will be supported by 62 car parking spaces and 33 secure bicycle spaces.

The proposal would replace two single-storey brick buildings currently on the site.

<img alt="St Ives" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="21422eaf-09a9-4439-9278-b9bd9daf22a1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%201.38.10%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=v.fXSgcUcEscvOZzqcjG5nk3gVqk_Amt" />

St Ives remains a relatively untapped market for new apartment development. North Shore developer WINIM has a number of projects in the area, while INCA is nearing completion of Ellis Residences.

More recently, Traders In Purple has lodged plans for one of the denser projects proposed in the suburb, a 75-apartment development on a 5,900 sqm site on Cowan Road.

NewQuest, a construction, design and development firm, has delivered over 24 projects across commercial, residential, industrial, and lad markets.&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

First look: NewQuest Property proposes new St Ives apartment development

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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It would be fair to say I’ve lost count of the number of times people ask me about the secrets for a successful negotiation.
Once you know how to negotiate… this will provide you with your ultimate passport to success.
You see, the success of every negotiation is based upon these elements. However, you also need to master various strategies, tactics and nuances… in order to truly become a master negotiator.
But the good news is… all of these are teachable skills — which you’re able to quickly and easily learn, with little or no effort.
Naturally, over a career of 40+ years… you tend to see and use virtually every negotiating technique there is. And one by one, I have tested them and noted down those that work.
Agendas
Everyone going into a negotiation will have an agenda. But the mistake most people make is in assuming that your agenda is the same as theirs.
You know, in all my years as a negotiator… I’ve never seen two identical agendas. Sure, there may be a few common items — but they never appear in the same order of importance, on both agendas.
As such, the No. 1 item on their agenda may well be No. 7 on yours. And the secret lies in uncovering just how to determine that… which is one of the other 25 techniques.
Because, once you know what’s on their Agenda … you are then in a far stronger position to trade your “lesser” items, on the way to achieving your ultimate objective.
In fact, the biggest mistake you can ever make is to allow your negotiation to reach the point where price becomes the only item under discussion. From there on, one party has to lose… in order for the other to win.
As you will soon realise, there are only four outcomes for every negotiation …
 
<img src="/images/2015/06/24/Neg-Chart.png" alt="">
 
Therefore, your aim ought be to take control of the negotiation and steer it towards a win-win result. That way, it ensures the deal will ‘stick’ … while the documentation is being prepared.
CHRIS LANG is an advisor to commercial property investors, sell-out author and regular speaker on how to invest in commercial property. You can contact Chris <a href="https://commercialpropertymadeeasy.com/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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chrislang-EQKojcgJPV

The secret lies in discovering a hidden agenda: Chris Lang

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released demographic data for the December 2014 quarter yesterday. The data highlighted a continuing slowdown in the rate of national population growth, with the quarterly increase now lower than slump in population growth recorded during the GFC. In particular the mining states and territories are recording the biggest slowdown in population growth fueled by a slowdown in both interstate and overseas migration.
<a href="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-13.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-13.jpg" alt="">
 
The data showed that throughout 2014 Australia added another 330,202 persons.  Although this is still a relatively high rate of population growth, it is the lowest annual increase in population since the population increased by 327,637 persons over the 12 months to September 2011.  Over the final quarter of the year the national population increased by 64,010 persons which was its lowest quarterly increase since June 2006 (52,834).
<a href="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-23.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-23.jpg" alt="">
 
At a national level population growth is comprised of overseas migration (arrivals minus departures) and natural increase (births minus deaths), any interstate migration is neutral at a national level.  Over the past year, the country experienced a natural increase of 146,067 persons and net overseas migration of 184,135 persons.  The rate of annual natural increase is at its lowest level since December 2006 (139,793) and annual net overseas migration is at its lowest level since June 2011 (180,372).  On a quarterly basis, natural increase was recorded at 36,517 persons (its lowest level since December 2006) and net overseas migration was recorded at 46,034 persons (its lowest level since June 2011).
<a href="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-33.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-33.jpg" alt="">
With the national population increasing by 330,202 persons over the past year, the majority of population growth has taken place in the largest states.  NSW (31.2%) and Vic (30.7%) accounted for a combined 61.9% of national population growth.  If you add Qld (19.4%) and WA (12.1%) the four largest states accounted for 93.5% of national population growth over the year.
As far as the rate of population growth goes, for the first time since September 2006 WA is no longer the state with the most rapid rate of population growth with Vic taking over the mantle. Vic’s population increased by 1.8% over the year followed by: WA (1.6%), NSW and Qld (both 1.4%), ACT (1.1%), SA (0.9%), NT (0.4%) and Tas (0.3%).  Qld, WA and NT in particular are seeing the impact of the mining downturn with fewer workers required in these states as the pipeline of major infrastructure projects winds down translating into slower population growth. Two years ago these states were recording annual population growth of 2.0% in Qld, 3.7% in WA and 2.8% in NT.
<a href="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-42.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-42.jpg" alt="">
Net overseas migration has been slowing at a national level and as the above chart shows, all states are experiencing a fall in net overseas migration.  The full brunt of the slowdown in net overseas migration is once again being felt by the resource states.  Annual net overseas migration is -30.9% lower in Qld, -47.6% lower in WA and -56.0% lower in NT.  All other states except for NSW (+1.9%) and ACT (+4.1%) have recorded a fall in net overseas migration over the year, but nowhere near the extent of the mining states and territories.  The declines in these states were recorded at -4.2% in Vic, -9.0% in SA and -2.9% in Tas.  The data also highlights that overseas migrants have a clear preference to settle in the larger states.  Over the past year, 37.9% of net migration occurred in NSW with a further 30.4% in Vic, 13.2% in Qld and 10.3% in WA.
<a href="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-53.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-53.jpg" alt="">
 
At a national level net interstate migration has no impact however, it does have a significant impact across individual states.  Over the 12 months to December 2014, there were 335,256 interstate movements across the Australian states.  Historically Qld has attracted as high number of interstate migrants however; net interstate migration to the state has slowed sharply over recent years.  Across the states, Vic now attracts the most net interstate migrants (9,336) followed by Qld (5,598) and these are the only two states that have recorded a net gain in interstate migration over the year.  Vic’s net gain from interstate migration is a record high while migration to Qld is at its lowest level on record.  The net outflow of residents from the remaining states was recorded at: -5,572 persons in NSW, -2,744 in SA, -400 in WA, -1,278 in Tas, -3,392 in NT and -1,548 in ACT.  Despite the net outflow, the net number of residents leaving NSW is at a record low.  On the other hand the loss of residents from WA is the largest since September 2003 and the outflow from NT is the largest on record.
In terms of natural increase the states with the largest overall populations also have the greatest natural increase.  There has been a sharp decline in natural increase in NSW over the past few years while natural increase is trending higher in WA.  The state-by-state shares of natural increase are: 26.5% in NSW, 24.8% in Vic, 23.5% in Qld, 4.9% in SA, 14.8% in WA, 1.0% in Tas, 2.0% in NT and 2.6% in ACT.
The demographic data highlights challenges for the Australian economy and individual states. Gross domestic product has been slowing and is much lower on a per capita basis. With population growth slowing and set to slow further in coming quarters (as foreshadowed in the monthly overseas arrivals and departures data) this poses a challenge for the national economy.  The resource states in particular are being impacted as they are attracting fewer migrants from both interstate and overseas. Conversely, NSW and Vic (which are a proxy for Sydney and Melbourne) are the places that both domestic and international migrants want to head to. 
This in turn fuels demand for housing, creates the need for more jobs and requires more spending on infrastructure. To-date it doesn’t look as if the sharp rises in home values in Sydney and to a lesser degree Melbourne over recent years is stopping migrants heading to these areas. You would have to think that at some point this will change but no one has a crystal ball to know exactly when that inflection point will occur. Particularly given how low the cost of debt currently is with interest rates so low, furthermore rental pressures are easing given already high new housing construction and a record high pipeline of approvals to potentially follow.
Cameron Kusher is RP Data’s senior research analyst. Follow Cameron on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/cmkusher" target="_blank">here</a>. 
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Australia’s rate of population growth continues to slow: Cameron Kusher

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Newly approved housing supply has moved to new record heights, with 214,331 dwelling approvals recorded nationally over the past year.
The proportion of these approvals which were for units is also at a record high, accounting for 45.9% of all approvals.
The surge in dwelling approvals has coincided with very low interest rates and surging demand from the investment segment of the market. 
Across the combined capital cities more than half of all dwelling approvals are for units and in each capital city (except Adelaide, Perth and Hobart) more than 50% of approvals over the past year were for units. 
Data from the 2011 Census shows that across the country units are more than twice as likely to be rented as houses. This would indicate a clear preference from the investment segment which is currently so active, for units over houses.
While the number of new dwellings being approved is significant, it is worthwhile examining on a smaller scale the regions where the new housing supply is being approved. Looking at dwelling approvals across SA4 regions of the country, we have listed the top 20 regions for approvals for both houses and units over the 2014-15 financial year to April 2014.
For houses, the region with the greatest number of approvals over the financial year to-date was South East Melbourne (which includes council regions such as Casey and Cardinia) with 4,874 approvals. Looking at the top 20 list published, 15 of the 20 regions listed are located within capital cities with only Geelong, Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast, Latrobe-Gippsland and Bunbury in non-capital city areas. The top 20 list shows 3 NSW regions, 6 regions from Vic, 5 regions from Qld, 1 SA region and 5 regions from WA.
<a href="/images/2015/06/30/2015-06-22--01--house-approvals-2014-15-financial-year-SA4-regions.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="/images/2015/06/30/2015-06-22--01--house-approvals-2014-15-financial-year-SA4-regions.jpg" alt="">
Turning to unit approvals, the list highlights the magnitude of approvals in Inner Melbourne with 12,516 approvals so far this financial year.
This region is already seeing a huge volume of new construction and the pipeline just keeps growing.
To put the volume of approvals in perspective, Brisbane Inner City with the second highest number of approvals (5,808) has less than half as many unit approvals as Inner Melbourne.
The Gold Coast is the only non-capital city area listed amongst the top 20 regions for unit approvals. Looking at the state-by-state breakdown there are 6 NSW regions listed, 6 Vic regions, 4 Qld regions, 1 SA region, 2 WA regions and 1 ACT region.
<a href="/images/2015/06/30/2015-06-22--02--unit-approvals-2014-15-financial-year-SA4-regions.jpg" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/06/30/2015-06-22--02--unit-approvals-2014-15-financial-year-SA4-regions.jpg" alt="">
 
With the pipeline of construction activity remaining high and much of it high-density development, the multiplier effect from heightened construction activity should continue for a number of years. 
Of course the biggest hurdle may start to be achieving necessary presales for these projects commence particularly given that many financial institutions are now starting to tighten their lending practices on the request of APRA. 
With a particular focus on investment mortgages this may have an impact on demand from investors who are seemingly a key driver of the surging demand for inner city units.
Cameron Kusher is RP Data’s senior research analyst. Follow Cameron on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/cmkusher" target="_blank">here</a>. 
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Surge in dwelling approvals: Cameron Kusher

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Figures from the Rental Bond Board appeared to show that the supply of rental accommodation was below growth trends for NSW. With this is mind what do the median rental statistics collected by the board reveal? 
A number of interesting trends emerge. In 2010-11 the areas with the highest median rentals were the South Sydney and Upper North Shore. However between 2011-12 up until the most recent figures for 2013-14 it has been the Eastern Suburbs that consistently records the highest median rents. 
In the Board’s figures the Eastern Suburbs covers a very diverse area across postcodes 2021-2036.
According the Board’s figures the median rental across this area is $610, and while rents have been on the rise, given the area’s diversity across suburbs like, Paddington, Moore Park, Little Bay, East Gardens, Vaucluse, Watsons Bay and Bondi the range of rents would be wide-ranging.
However what is more interesting is the general trends of median rents across the metropolitan area between 2010-11 and 2013-14, interesting because the figures show, somewhat surprisingly that the growth in median rents has been slowing. In 2010-11 the increase was 4.5% and in 2011-12 4.3%. However in 2012-13 the figure fell below 4% to 3.1% and in 2013-14 the increase was 2.9%. 
Over the same period there have been suburbs where median rental growth in the top five areas has been both above and less than the metropolitan figures. Looking at the Board’s figures here are some of the notable figures.
Rental Growth
All of the figures following are taken from figures published by The Renal Bond Board in its annual report.
In 2010-11 median rental growth across metro Sydney was 4.5% at $460.00, with some notable variations among the top three postcode groupings as follows: 
<ul>
<li>Eastern Suburbs, Lower North Shore &amp; Mosman/Cremorne all increase by 10% to $550.00</li>
<li>South Sydney &amp; Upper North Shore grew by 9.8% to $560.00</li>
<li>
Inner Sydney 5.7% to $560.00 
</li>
</ul>
In 2011-12 median rental growth was 4.3% to $480.00, and the top three postcode groupings were:
<ul>
<li>Many/Warringah grew by 5.8% to $550.00</li>
<li>Eastern Suburbs grew by 5.5% to $580.00</li>
<li>Lower North Shore grew by 4.5% to $575.00</li>
</ul>
Across this period it is notable that in three areas – Inner Sydney, South Sydney and Upper North Shore the Board’s figures showed no growth.
In 2012-13 rental growth fell to 3.1% to $495.00, the top three postcode groupings were:
<ul>
<li>Inner Sydney and South Sydney at 5.4% to $590.00</li>
<li>Eastern Suburbs at 3.4% to $600.00</li>
<li>Lower North Shore 1.7% to $585.00</li>
<li>Upper North Shore 1.7% to $570.00</li>
</ul>
Again it was notable that the Inner west showed no growth.
The most recent figures for 2013-14 growth fell again to 2.9%,a cross the metro region the median rental was $510.00 and the top three groupings were:
<ul>
<li>Inner West grew by 4.3% to $575.00</li>
<li>Many/Warringah at 3.4% to $580.00</li>
<li>Mosman/Cremorne at 2.5% to $590.00</li>
</ul>
In the same period rents on the Lower North Shore, according to the Board’s figures dropped by (0.9)%, which was the only negative result over the total period between 2010-2014.
Supply Catches Up
The big increases in 2010-11 (at 10% in some areas) have not been repeated, and this would appear to reflect more properties in particular apartments coming onto the market along with a rise in the number of investment properties being sold.
Currently the gap between the least and most expensive market is modest, based on median rentals $35.00 with Fairfield/Liverpool and Canterbury/Bankstown the most affordable and the Eastern Suburbs the most expensive market followed closely by the Inner Sydney and South Sydney, with both theses areas seeing a big increase in apartment developments.
It is also interesting to note that the gap between the least and most expensive rental markets has remain constant, although since 2010-11 the Upper North Shore has lost it’s spot as among the most expensive rental markets.
However we need to go to the country median rentals to see the most volatile figures, because in 2010-11 rents in Mudgee grew by 19.5% and in the following year by 14.1%, but in 2013-14 rents fell by (20%), which would largely reflect the changing fortunes of the mining industry. 
For the metro Sydney market, the demand for rental accommodation and rents continue to rise, although the patterns are not uniform. Some areas of the market have and will continue to see new developments added both as apartments and houses in new estates, as these remain popular with investors. 
The details and values outlined come from a very big pool of tenants as the Rental Bond Board looks after more than 726,337 tenancy bonds, and so the figures are a valid reflection of the wider rental market.
Given all of the activity across our property market in the last 12 months the Board’s report for 2014-15 should reveal some interesting trends.
<div class="entry-content">
To read the final part of Peter's two-part post, click here.
Peter Chittenden is managing director for residential of Colliers International. He can be contacted <a href="https://www.projectagenda.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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NSW rental supply below growth trends: Peter Chittenden

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<h2 class="post_title"> </h2>
Every year, as Sydney hits winter we can expect the inevitable property market predictions to come in thick and fast. Now before we get into the nitty gritty of these predictions there are a few observations that I made when I read these somewhat bizarre predictions.
Let’s look at some facts – the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released their latest data on Residential Property Prices in March 2015 which showed that the total value of Australia’s 9.500 million residential dwellings had increased to $5.500 trillion. At the end of the March quarter 2015 the ABS also advised that household net worth was $8,090.9 billion so we are talking big numbers here.
Researcher BIS Shrapnel noted that house prices (I assume this includes the investor apartment market too) have soared by 45% since 2012 – and they don’t expect a correction to arrive until 2017. Because in 2017 they are expecting the cash rate to start increasing – which I don’t agree with as I expect we will have a low cash rate for quite a few years to come.
A recent PwC study found that more than one – third of Australia was enduring recession conditions as the economy is increasingly driven by a small group of regions. The PwC analysis found about 20% of the national income was now produced in just 10 out of 2,214 locations across Australia, with Sydney, Melbourne and WA’s iron ore belt in the Pilbara among the dominant areas. 
It is also worth noting that Queensland and NSW are on a massive infrastructure spend with Victoria not that far behind.
For those intently following the Sydney infrastructure model, I suggest that you read<a href="https://www.strategy.planning.nsw.gov.au/sydney/the-plan/#section-224&amp;265" target="_blank"> Your Future Sydney</a> – “The Government must accelerate the delivery of new housing in Sydney to meet the needs of a bigger population and to satisfy a growing demand for different types of housing. Making sure that Sydney will have adequate shelter for its future population is a high priority of this Plan.
Over the next 20 years, the population in Sydney will grow much faster than in the last 20 years. Projections indicate that Sydney will need around 664,000 additional homes over the next 20 years. 1 – New housing will be needed in Greenfield locations and the established urban area. Providing housing in a variety of sizes, types and locations will be essential to meeting Sydney’s future housing need. Increasing housing supply will boost economic activity and generate viable infrastructure and business investment opportunities.
Sydney’s house prices are high compared with other Australian capital cities, 2 – and while house prices are the result of consumer demand, governments can help to put downward pressure on prices. Accelerating the supply and the variety of housing across Sydney, such as apartments and townhouses, will make it easier for people to find homes to suit their lifestyle and budget.”
It is also worth noting that the 664,000 additional new homes will be of the strata title variety with many high density subdivisions of air space to be contained mainly on the transport corridors. The Baird Government is well aware that NSW has fallen well behind where present reports have Sydney at approximately 140,000 new homes short of where it needs to be.
When these huge infrastructure models come to fruition which one would assume we will find ourselves somewhere around the 2017 mark – so it makes plenty of sense that investors will be watching this massive construction phase with great interest. By then the councils will have been merged into the new larger councils and we will see major high density subdivisions being rolled out across Sydney.
I have been reliably advised that the Abbott Government will not be changing the foreign ownership laws so foreign buyers can acquire 100% of all new developments – and we need to know that there are plenty of foreign buyers wanting to invest in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and regional areas.
Mosman house levels are now down over 50% on recent years where this week we hit 36 houses on the market which is the lowest in living memory – so no correction happening here as is also the case in the vast majority of suburbs across Sydney.
At the end of the day despite what some may predict the Sydney real estate market is all about that old mathematical equation supply V demand. With the easing of foreign ownership rules the Australian property market is now an international market and that’s where the demand is coming from.
<h4>MOSMAN – 2088</h4>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 62
• Number of houses on the market last week – 43
• Number of houses on the market this week – 36
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 56
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 39
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 43
<h4>CREMORNE – 2090</h4>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 5
• Number of houses on the market last week – 4
• Number of houses on the market this week – 3
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 12
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 12
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 16
<h4>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h4>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 3
• Number of houses on the market last week – 2
• Number of houses on the market this week – 2
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 42
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 39
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 25
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
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Property is just a simple mathematical equation: Robert Simeon

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The top 20 locations in Australia for long-term capital growth are all regional locations.
That may surprise many people because the general theme in media is that the capital cities out-perform their regional markets. 
The misconception arises when research houses spit figures out of their computers and rush them off to media without providing any analysis of the realities behind the generalised figures.
A general figure describing growth in regional New South Wales will often produce a low growth figure because there are lots of mediocre small town markets, which drag down the average. The generalised number for regional Queensland will be low because there are numerous markets in decline, thanks to their links to the resources sector and/or developer oversupply. 
But the best individual towns often deliver higher long-term growth than the best of the capital city suburbs.
The latest Hotspotting survey for the Capital Growth Superstars report - examining long-term capital growth rates for every suburb and town in Australia - shows that, once again, the best growth rates are all regional.
The best of the capital cities are two suburbs of Darwin, Gray and Fannie Bay, which average 10.2% per year. But that’s barely good enough to make the Top 20 list for regional Australia.
The Top 20 regional locations have growth rates ranging from 10.2% to 20.7% per year.
Most of them are mining towns, resources regional centres or country towns boosted by recent resources activity. This is despite the sharp decline in prices in many resources-impacted towns over the past 2-3 years.
But the No.1 location in Australia for long-term capital growth is not a mining-related location. It’s the oddly-named Humpty Doo, a town of 6,000 about 40km from Darwin on the road to Kakadu National Park. It has a capital growth rate of 20.7% per year, largely because of growth generated by the outward sprawl of Darwin. 
Newman, an iron ore town in the Pilbara region of WA, is No.2 with a price growth average of 18% per year over the past decade. This is actually a significant drop on the town’s peak, about three years ago, when it averaged 30%-plus as the median price reached $780,000. It has dropped back to $685,000, according to the latest figures, but the growth rate is still the second best in the nation. 
Let’s be clear. I don’t advocate investing in mining towns or mining regional centres. They are just too volatile and too high risk. 
A few short years ago the iconic coal-mining town of Moranbah in Queensland had a long-term capital growth average above 30% per year. Back then its median price was $750,000. Today it’s $250,000 and the capital growth average for the past 10 years is now minus 0.2%. 
In other words, all that capital growth since 2005 has been wiped out and values are now lower than they were 10 years ago.
Moranbah is the most extreme boom-bust story I have encountered in Australian real estate, but there are other mining-impacted locations which have soared and are now very busy plummeting.
Port Hedland once had a median house price above $1.2 million and a capital growth rate close to 30% per year. Today the median is around $800,000 and the capital growth rate has dropped to 11.6%. 
That’s still good enough to rank No.10 in Australia and it means that if you bought there 10 years ago you’re still well in front. But if you bought there three years ago, you’re feeling a tad sick.
Despite the sharp decline in their markets in recent years, mining towns and resources regional centres still have the highest long-term capital growth rates in Australia – other than Humpty Doo. By comparison, the best of the capital city suburbs fade into insignificance.
<a href="/images/2015/07/09/ryder_chart.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/07/09/ryder_chart.jpg" alt="">
 
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a> 
Terry was recently joined by Property Observer editor at large Jonathan Chancellor for a webinar on why research is the key to successful property investing in 2015. You can download slides and audio from the webinar here.
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Regional areas offering long-term capital growth: Terry Ryder

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Last week, I noticed Craig James, chief economist of Commsec, pointing out to David "Kochie" Koch that although wages growing have been growing slower than prices, household incomes are actually growing at the fastest pace in two years, increasing by 4.7% in the last 12 months.
While wages growth has indeed slowed (<a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/wages-grow-at-26" target="_blank">as I analysed here,</a> among other places), apparently household disposable incomes have been rising more quickly. Interesting statistic I thought, so I asked "CJ" for the source.
<img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7SzKL4Y4BIU/VCF5vBSJ3TI/AAAAAAAAP70/Yhw_QqERMLs/s1600/HICJ.jpg"> 
Straight from the National Accounts, advised CJ. So I thought I'd take a little look to confirm or deny.
Household gross incomes rising
First, I ran the seasonally adjusted household income data from the National Accounts.
As you can see from the green line circled below, after a rampant boom in employee compensation spurred on by Australia's mining boom, income growth from paid employment has slowed since December 2012.
Although the trend does remain up on a national basis, in real terms wages are at best flat and at worst declining moderately.
Of course there are many forms of income including dividends, rent, social assistance, other transfers, and more besides, and overall household incomes have increased at the significantly faster pace of 4.4% seasonally adjusted over the last year according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) - in essence, everything that is not wages has increased in real terms.
 
 <img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8H1Wz0wmWcQ/VCF5psR7OkI/AAAAAAAAP7Q/opfMA4K1EVA/s1600/HI1.jpg">
Still, even this income growth cannot fully account for a 4.7% rise in household disposable incomes.
Payables down?
The big mover in terms of payables in recent decades has of course been interest paid on dwellings, which skyrocketed until September 2008, then collapsed as interest rates were slashed and house prices eased. Then it repeated the trick once again from September 2011 as the latest easing cycle took hold.
With interest rates significantly closer to the zero bound than historically has been the case and household debt levels today much higher than they were before the deregulation of the banking system, relatively small adjustments to mortgage rates can result in wild swings in total interest payments on dwellings. And how!
<img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-xFfk72ZbyRo/VCF5p2fT1FI/AAAAAAAAP7U/ucfhOLYzSDo/s1600/HI2.jpg"> 
With most mortgage debt being charged on variable rate products, this explains why Australia's housing market is so sensitive to shifts in interest rates, and why only a few rate hikes would quickly quell speculative sentiment and swiftly end the property price uptrend for this cycle.
Why? Because the people lumbered with the highest mortgage debt as a percentage of their household income are those at the margin i.e. those buying much of the property which transacts.
It is difficult to draw hard conclusions from macro level data, but the two charts above show that for existing homeowners on variable rate mortgages, disposable income has surely roared higher in the period since the dramatic peaks in interest repayment levels of September 2008 and September 2011 respectively.
Anyone with existing mortgage debt who has remained in employment will appreciate just how comparatively easy life is with a standard variable rate of 5.2% rather than the 9.6%, we saw as recently as July and August 2008.
<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2013/images/sp-so-230413-graph11.gif"> 
This article continues on the next page. Please click below to continue. 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Household income accounts
On a national basis total gross income dwarfs property payables largely because most Australians are not mortgaged to the eyeballs as is widely believed. 
Depending on your state, between a quarter and a third of homes <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/dynamics" target="_blank">are owned debt free</a> while mortgage holders over recent years have been moving well ahead on their repayments. 
Meanwhile income taxes payable have moved higher in concert with rising taxable incomes. 
The trend in gross disposable income is shown by the red line below.
 <img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ew6soAsW11s/VCF5umNs6jI/AAAAAAAAP7w/d8MQCRJdCdQ/s1600/HI4.jpg">
So, in this sense, Commsec's observation is correct - gross disposable incomes are indeed 4.7% higher than a year ago.
However it is a fair bet that those who are not homeowners and are 100 percent reliant on a salary for their income do not feel much better off, if they even do at all.
Homeowners and in some instances those with diversified income streams are clearly benefiting very significantly from record low borrowing rates.
These things naturally tend to work in cycles, though - when interest rates were much higher and rising and dwelling prices easing, the boot was on the other foot entirely.
 
 <img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CV4uoAihbTI/VCF5tvRx9fI/AAAAAAAAP7k/dN77fz2dzgw/s1600/HI5.jpg">
Gross disposable income nationally has been launched massively higher by more than 80% in the past decade, unadjusted for population growth.
However, the trend disposable income growth per capita seems likely to slow, and if interest rates are hiked several times gross disposable income in aggregate could plateau unless wages growth rebounds.
 <img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-fXYwdyho_XE/VCF5vQP6fjI/AAAAAAAAP74/O2tfGis_r1o/s1600/HI6.jpg">
 
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Are household disposable incomes really increasing at 4.7%?

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Q: Is there a housing bubble?
A: Nationally no, but if we are talking about Sydney, Melbourne and new inner Brisbane apartments, then yes.  That's a YES, in case you somehow missed it.
Sydney and Melbourne have been distorted by an influx of 'grey' money coming from China. Many don't like to hear this, but it is happening. No hard statistics, but our groundtruthing is looking worthy of a hefty bet.  And of late, some of this grey has shifted north, along with local superannuation funds looking for cheap property &amp; a longish timeframe to settle, in the hope of double digit price growth.
Brisbane always follows Sydney, right?  Property is so cheap in Brisbane, hey! You can buy two in Brisbane for the price of just one in Sydney. Bris Vegas here we come.
Sidebar
I have an internal debate several times each month – it's fun, like talking to an imaginary friend – about whether or not to write on a certain topic. 
Do I let blast about China? Publish my thoughts about smaller apartments?  Call out all those BS artists promising double digit price growth &amp; rental increases?  And this week, it's a yes.  Write something about the Reserve Bank (RBA), Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) and how we will all be rooned.
We'll all be rooned
Now, there is nothing wrong with a global property market, nor being in the recovery phase of the property cycle and having closer ties to China – or any of our major trading partners for that matter.
But a housing bubble is a different story.
Property values have almost trebled over the past two decades, while wages have not kept pace. House prices in both Sydney, Melbourne, some parts of Perth and now across inner Brisbane, are often over 10 times household earnings. In many cases, weekly rents also far exceed 30% of a renter's income.
And things can start getting out of hand when the proportion of investors buying accounts for around half of all residential sales – double the 25% of the housing market made up by private renters. This happens every cycle, but its current trajectory is unsustainable.
Got some doubts?
Well this year alone, housing credit and house prices have climbed at, respectively, more than two and three times the rate of household income growth. It isn't the actual rate of credit and price growth that is the problem, but their relationship with our ability to afford this inflation.
It's true that this is mostly a Sydney and Melbourne phenomenon, but we only have a few blunt tools in the back of our ute to temper the times. And besides, we have never been that good at small, fiddly renovations. Slash and burn is more our style.
The good and the bad
Yes, there are reasons for property demand to be improving – we have record low interest rates, relatively low vacancy rates, high population growth and a strong penchant for owning property.
But on the flip side, we have falling commodity prices, an employment baton change which, for the life of me, I cannot see happening smoothly nor correspondingly, little wage growth, ageing demographics, high debt, an increasingly economically wobbly China and a close to epileptic Europe. Not to mention what may or may not happen with the rest of the world.
For those who only hear good news, you might have missed that Australia's federal budget deficit last year (2013/14) was close to $50 billion &amp; yet the Palmer United Party wants to keep the red ink flowing until the early 2020s. 
If that happens, then our prized AAA sovereign credit rating could be at risk, especially if something goes wrong with our economy – or that of a major trading partner.
In short, we might see the vulnerable economic conditions of southern Europe down under.
This article continues on the next page. Please click below to continue.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
True blue
But in true ocker fashion – it's all "she'll be right mate", "nothing to see here". Those questioning our "property at all costs" mentality need to take a double dose &amp; retire to bed early. Keep on moving on. Bid higher at that auction. Buy something tiny and off-plan. Doesn't property double in value every seven years? You cannot lose.
Too far-fetched?
Well, our real wages are falling. Yes, falling, as average earnings rose just 2.3% over the last 12 months – that's 0.3% lower than inflation. Unemployment is over 6%, without counting the 700,000-plus on disability pensions.
True, the RBA does predict higher economic growth next year, real wage growth in some distant future and lower employment one day, maybe, but this is predicated on the assumption that nothing economic will go bang or that China's economy won't slow down further.
Excuse me for being a skeptic, but trying to predict an economic future, these days, is almost impossible.  I would just love to read or hear one of those talking eco heads say something like, "well, frankly we don't have a bloody clue".
If you ask me what's going to happen, your guess is as good as mine.
But I do like to guess, so here goes.
<ul>
<li>Government will not reign in spending; we (the senate) won't allow it.</li>
<li>No workplace reforms, for fear of a union campaign.</li>
<li>The RBA will continue jawboning and keep interest rates where they are (when looking at the whole of the Australian economy – not just housing in Sydney and Melbourne – they really need to fall).</li>
<li>Plenty of talks about macro-prudential action – like higher investment loan to value ratios; changes to property taxation or minimum product sizes – but nothing done. Maybe that is a good thing?</li>
<li>No enforcement by FIRB regarding illegal overseas buying – and it has almost all been illegal in recent years.</li>
</ul>
And it's the last point that is the most pertinent right now.  If you want to slow down the Sydney, Melbourne and inner Brisbane property markets without stopping the rest of the country, then you must enforce offshore buying laws.
Inert FIRB
An inert FIRB has done nothing to inhibit the grey economy that exists to get money out of China (ironically, helping them deflate their own housing bubble) &amp; into safer overseas havens like Australia.
It's true that the Chinese government imposes a $US50,000 a year limit that can be sent out of the country, but cashed-up Chinese bypass this system via personal relationships rather than transparent bank transfers. Heaps of property – just how much is unknown (but it shouldn't be) – is being bought this way in Sydney &amp; Melbourne, Perth, and now in Brisbane and starting to again on the Gold Coast.
Also, the Significant Investor Visa (SIV) is dominated by mainland Chinese who meet the $5 million requirement. They are paying stupid prices for potential development sites (with site values doubling in the past five years), but property economics do not apply here, as the SIV is really a fast-tracked qualification for a permanent visa. Dual nationality is the want, but sadly, too many Chinese just want an Aussie passport as an insurance policy, not a new way of life.
Lower down the chain – much lower, if you ask me – is another sheltered workshop – property spruikers flogging Chinese investors little high-rise boxes in Sydney, Melbourne and now Brisbane. Entire high-rise buildings are financed, built and sold for the Chinese market, with local buyers and developers rendered irrelevant. Small, one-bedroom dogboxes are the norm. The more the merrier. How divine, indeed!
And all of this should be illegal. If only FIRB would enforce the law!
All of this illicit activity is creating a demand that would not otherwise exist. Well at nowhere near the levels that it is increasing spruiked. Quarterly newspaper lift-outs about Australia's sudden urge to live on top of each other – I mean, come on.
And this, coupled with local superannuation investors – many of whom appear to have been sold a pup – has created valuations that are dangerously detached from average weekly earnings &amp; sustainable owner-resident demand.
But then again, it is Australia mate; stop all this fussing; she'll be right; tyranny of distance and all that stuff.
But seriously folks
But seriously, something has to be done.  We are now entering some serious hot water.
Here's another guess.  Nothing will happen until this gets political; economic sense doesn't seem to cut the mustard around here anymore.  The political wedge, for mine, come next federal election, is overseas buying.
But between now then, I will take Terry's advice – take a couple of aspirin &amp; have a good lie down. 
Michael Matusik is the founder of Matusik Property Insights, which has helped over 550 new residential projects come to fruition.  Read Michael's <a href="https://matusik.com.au/missive/" target="_blank">Blog</a> or follow him on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ThinkMatusik?fref=ts" target="_blank">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/michaelmatusik" target="_blank">Twitter</a> or connect via <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelmatusik" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a>.
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Is there a housing bubble? Or should we all take a wee lie down?

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With the vast majority of homes sold in the last financial year now settled, it is possible to calculate some of the key numbers in the Ballarat market.
Over the year a total of $639 million was spent on houses in the City of Ballarat and $68 million on units across 1,942 house sales and 281 unit sales. There were 12 million dollar house sales – the median value of a house was $301,001. The median house value rose by 7.1% compared to 7.9% in Melbourne
Largest growth in median house values by suburb:
<ul>
<li>Golden Point</li>
<li>Soldiers Hill</li>
<li>Black Hill</li>
<li>Redan</li>
<li>Mount Pleasant</li>
</ul>
Most house sales by suburb
<ul>
<li>Wendouree</li>
<li>Sebastopol</li>
<li>Alfredton</li>
<li>Ballarat East</li>
<li>Delacombe</li>
</ul>
Most expensive suburbs by median house values
<ul>
<li> Lake Wendouree</li>
<li>Lake Gardens</li>
<li>Invermay Park</li>
<li>Mount Helen</li>
<li>Buninyong</li>
</ul>
Most affordable suburbs by median house values
<ul>
<li>Sebastopol</li>
<li>Wendouree</li>
<li>Redan Mount Pleasant</li>
<li>Ballarat East</li>
</ul>
Highest spend on houses
<ul>
<li>Alfredton ($64 million)</li>
<li>Wendouree ($48 million)</li>
<li>Sebastopol ($42 million)</li>
<li>Ballarat Central ($41 million)</li>
<li>Lake Wendouree ($40 million)</li>
</ul>
Suburbs with million dollar house sales
<ul>
<li>Lake Wendouree</li>
<li>Ballarat Central</li>
<li>Newington</li>
</ul>
Suburbs with the highest proportion of houses advertised for sale:
<ul>
<li>Ballarat Central</li>
<li>Miners Rest</li>
<li>Alfredton</li>
<li>Mount Clear</li>
<li>Newington</li>
</ul>
 
 
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rlarocca-zWhvjay44N

Top 5 for Ballarat residential real estate sales during 2013-2014 financial year

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Research I saw recently showed that Sydney's growth in dwelling values over the past 10 years has averaged 3.8% a year. The figure takes into account the growth of the past 12-18 months.
The figures also show that Adelaide has the same long-term growth rate, while Canberra and Brisbane have slightly lower growth rates. Hobart's is significantly lower (just 1.9% per year).
The figures, from RP Data, are similar to those I've seen previously from Australian Property Monitors and other research entities.
They show prices in five of the eight capital cities have done little better than match inflation. Wages, according to the Wages Price Index from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, have grown more over the past decade (in most years wages growth has ranged between 3.5% and 4.3%).
As a matter of interest, the base salaries of federal MPs have grown almost 7% per year over the past 10 years. Great leadership from the people who want to end the age of entitlement.
The combined capital cities average for growth in dwelling values is 4.7% per year. Only three cities have exceeded that meagre price growth level. Melbourne, according to these numbers, has averaged about 6% per year, Perth around 7% and Darwin 8%.
But the Sydney figure is the one with the most interest, because it's the growth in Sydney dwelling prices that is causing so much hysteria, including in places where you would expect cool heads and rational minds, such as the Reserve Bank.
It's because prices have grown so little, while wages have risen steadily and interest rates have dropped so low, that both of the major affordability indexes report that current levels of housing affordability are the best they've been in 10 years.
Another means of measuring where prices are really at is to compare the change in each of the major cities since their previous market peaks.
According to these numbers, three of the eight capital cities – Brisbane, Darwin and Hobart - still have price levels well below their previous peaks.
Three other cities – Canberra, Perth and Adelaide – are above their previous peaks, but by less than 3%. Melbourne is 6% up on its previous peak.
Sydney is 22% higher than its previous peak, but that earlier high was a decade ago. Net growth of 22% in 10 years is a fairly dismal performance.
This latest set of data also indicates the combined capital cities growth in the past 12 months is a little over 9% per year. That is not a particularly high figure. I wouldn't term anything below double digits as a boom, particularly as only one city (Sydney again) has growth as high as 9%.
Two core messages emerge from this mass of numbers. One is that most media commentary about surging dwelling prices is irrational, unreasonable and inaccurate.
The other is the importance of being selective about where you buy.
Based on these numbers, which talk about city averages, you probably wouldn't invest in real estate at all. It's only when you dig deeper beneath the averages that you find the out-performers, the places where price growth is well above the norm.
Now, more than ever, you need to take great care in selecting location.
 
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