South East Queensland developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a>’s entry into the Gold Coast apartment market has progressed from pipeline to market, with its Chevron Island project Bronze on Chevron now formally available to purchase ahead of a planned 2029 completion.

The 119-apartment development on Mawarra Street marks the Brisbane-headquartered builder-developer’s first residential play in the Gold Coast, following its expansion south from Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> comprises a mix of two-, three- and four-bedroom residences, with pricing starting from just over $1.5 million. The project is being delivered under Gardner Vaughan’s fully integrated model, with the group acting as both developer and builder, a structure it has consistently applied across its South East Queensland portfolio.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367182]

Architecture has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jeremy-ferrier-landscape-design">Jeremy Ferrier</a>. The building presents as a single-tower scheme, with a focus on maximising outlook across both the Surfers Paradise skyline and the Nerang River.

Apartments have been planned with open-plan living zones extending to generous balconies, a response to the site’s dual-aspect positioning between river and ocean. Interiors follow a restrained coastal palette, with two colour schemes offered, and an emphasis on natural light and cross-ventilation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367181]

Resident amenity is concentrated across more than 1,250 sqm and includes a resort-style pool, gym, yoga lawn and rooftop entertaining areas. A function space with catering facilities forms part of the upper-level offering, alongside north- and south-facing outdoor areas.

Ground level will incorporate two retail tenancies, intended to extend the existing village character of the surrounding streets.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367200]

The project sits within walking distance of Thomas Drive’s established dining strip, while maintaining proximity to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Surfers Paradise</a> beach and broader Gold Coast amenity. The location, positioned on Chevron Island between the river and coastline, has increasingly attracted mid- to high-density development in recent years as the precinct evolves beyond its low-rise origins.

Gardner Vaughan’s move into the Gold Coast was first signalled in 2025, with the group identifying the region as a natural extension of its operations. Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge described the expansion as both “strategic and natural”, citing demand for well-designed apartments in lifestyle-driven markets.

Construction is expected to complete in early 2029.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]

Joel Robinson

Gardner Vaughan brings Bronze on Chevron to market as Gold Coast debut

One of the penthouses at Lily Lane, the latest stage of Carrington Place by Ellipse Property, has set a new local apartment price record.

The four-bedroom residence, purchased by a local downsizer, sold for $5.75 million—around 75 per cent higher than the previous record of $3.3 million.

Over 40 per cent of the first release of apartments at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lily-lane-at-carrington-place-castle-hill-32-carrington-road-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Lily Lane</a> have already been snapped up just six weeks since it launched to the market.

&nbsp;

Located at 32 Carrington Road, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/castle-hill-nsw-2154">Castle Hill</a> and designed by award-winning architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ptw">PTW</a>, Lily Lane is directly opposite the Hills Showground Metro station. It offers a total 213 units over two 12-storey towers - a mix of 67 one-bedroom, 100 two-bedroom and 46 three-bedroom apartments - with a ground-floor retail offering.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=368352]

Blake Schulze, National Director – Residential at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/colliers">Colliers</a>, says around 44 per cent of buyers are&nbsp;owner occupiers, with 35 per cent being investors and 21 per cent first homebuyers.

“Developments of this calibre are very rare in the Hills District, and Lily Lane’s sales success demonstrates the depth of demand for over-sized apartments that genuinely compete with freestanding homes," Schulze says.

"We are seeing particular demand from downsizers who want to remain in the area but transition into spacious, high-quality apartment living."

On the penthouse sale, it says it shows buyers&nbsp;are prepared to pay a premium for scale, quality, and direct access to the Metro.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=368351]

One-bedroom apartments are sized from 50-72 sqm with prices starting at $745,000, while two-bedrooms are priced from $990,000 with sizes from 75 to 132 square metres. Three-bedroom floorplans are sized between 97 and 182 sqm,, with prices starting at $1,395,000.&nbsp;

The three remaining penthouses, spanning up to 262 sqm, are priced from $2.9 million.

Over 75 per cent of apartments include dedicated studies, multipurpose rooms or family rooms, with select layouts offering walk-in pantries and laundries. Apartments are appointed with premium Miele appliances including ovens, washing machines, dryers, gas cooktops and dishwashers, while larger residences also incorporate integrated Miele microwaves, Fisher &amp; Paykel integrated refrigerators and five-burner Miele cooktops.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=360285]

Lily Lane will be constructed by award-winning iCIRT-rated builder <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/decode">Decode Group</a>, with construction to commence in mid-2026 and expected to complete early 2029.

Carrington Place comprises more than 800 apartments and is being delivered across multiple stages, with completion expected in 2032. Integrated with neighbouring bushland, the project will feature over 20,000 sq, of outdoor recreational area, including a one-kilometre boardwalk to Fred Caterson Reserve.&nbsp;

The Hills Showground Metro Station is just a two-minute walk away, offering fast connectivity to Sydney’s CBD, North Sydney, Chatswood, Macquarie Park and Norwest Business Park.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151821]

Ellipse sets Castle Hill apartment record with $5.75 million Lily Lane penthouse sale

Fresh off completing its Delano Crows Nest development, Lindsay Bennelong has lodged plans for its next project, this time turning its attention to the beach.

The developer, founded by Clarendon Homes founder Peter Campbell, is proposing a 37-apartment scheme at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-25-ashburner-street-manly-nsw-2095">17-25 Ashburner Street</a>, Manly, positioned between the southern end of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/manly-nsw-2095">Manly</a> Beach and East Manly Cove.

Lindsay Bennelong called on local architecture firm Platform Architects to design the new building, given their success on The Finn, Lindsay Bennelong's current luxury apartment project on North Steyne.&nbsp;

According to the Design Verification Statement by Bridie Gough of Platform Architects, the proposal “relates to the current context but also the desired future character of taller buildings suitable to the new planning controls.”

The site has been identified as a Low to Mid-Rise Housing (LMR) location, given its position within 400 metres of the Manly Town Centre E1 Business Zone. The LMR controls are intended to unlock additional housing supply in well-located areas close to public transport, allowing developers to seek increased height limits to support greater density.

“The proposal seeks to provide this increased level of housing whilst being respectful of some of the smaller scale buildings also nearby,” the statement reads.

Lindsay Bennelong Development Director Leigh Manser said the project has been carefully aligned with the intent of the LMR controls. The proposal will significantly increase housing yield on the site, replacing four houses and 10 apartments, comprising 25 bedrooms, with 37 new apartments delivering a total of 94 bedrooms.

“Sydney is in a severe undersupply, and delivering more dwellings and more bedrooms than what currently exists is exactly what the LMR policy is designed to activate,” Manser said, noting that nine of the apartments will be allocated as affordable housing for frontline workers.

“We have already commenced discussions with our community housing provider to determine the rental levels that frontline workers can realistically afford in this location,” he said. “These will need to sit well below the standard affordable housing benchmark of 20 per cent below market rent, and that has been factored into our feasibility and pricing.”

<img alt="Manly" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ad03000f-19f9-48b4-b27d-e85ca800a1da" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%208.41.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=a.txHwCZgbCInlQ6QXbIrI.umvW1T.r8" />

The design of the building incorporates a wave-like indentation running through the façade, referencing the nearby coastline and anchoring the building within its local context.

The&nbsp;Design Verification Statement says careful consideration has been given to the articulation of the building, ensuring the bulk is broken down to a more human scale through a defined four-storey podium."

The scheme includes a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments.

“The design ensures a high level of amenity, with apartments offering generous private open space, many with expansive views, and all with comfortable proportions."

<img alt="Bennelong" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6a7f2812-72a1-4959-84b0-997e8cd88aed" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%2010.15.50%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=6iMxU3MkXmHVHAoNhYBjnqgka8CUZNbk" />

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lindsay-bennelong-developments">Lindsay Bennelong</a>&nbsp;is currently developing Finn Manly, just three full-floor luxury apartments on North Steyne. They recently welcomed residents to its 81-unit Delano Crows Nest development, a&nbsp;carefully scaled infill project designed to bridge&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/crows-nest-nsw-2065">Crows Nest</a>’s lively village centre with its surrounding heritage streets.

Designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ajc-architects">AJC Architects</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/delano-crows-nest-27-57-falcon-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Delano</a>&nbsp;is arranged across three low-rise buildings, incorporating a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom apartments alongside a limited number of townhomes addressing Hayberry Lane. The architectural approach draws on the area’s Art Deco lineage, reinterpreted through contemporary detailing and framed by landscaped communal gardens.

The developer also has a development site in Maroubra.

First look: Lindsay Bennelong's new Manly apartment development revealed

Fifty-nine residences across 37 levels. No more than two per floor. With 80 per cent now sold, what remains at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/madeline-by-mosaic-broadbeach-22-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">Madeline by Mosaic</a> is a short list.

Madeline was always conceived at a scale that sits outside the normal register of Gold Coast apartment living. The residences are half- and full-floor configurations, with the largest spanning more than 400 sqm, dimensions that place them closer to the penthouse end of the market regardless of where they sit in the building.

That scale is the organising principle of everything else: how the floorplans are laid out, how the materials read, how the connection between inside and outside works.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=355941]

The interiors were developed in collaboration with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser &amp; Partners</a>, the architecture practice&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mosaic-property-group">Mosaic</a> brought in as design partner for the first time on this project. The palette runs to natural stone, textured timbers, and soft metallics, materials chosen as much for their tactile quality as their appearance.

Light cleverly shifts across surfaces through the day, and the design is explicit about wanting that to be noticed. Full-height glazing runs across the primary living areas, and where the building faces east toward the ocean, those walls of glass are doing real work: framing a view corridor that the site's position directly opposite Broadbeach State School's playing fields keeps permanently open.

That outlook is the site's most consequential asset. In a suburb where new towers continue to rise, a protected view line is genuinely rare, and the Mary Avenue address secures it. Residents at Madeline will look out over open parkland rather than the rear of another building, a distinction that becomes more meaningful with each new development approved nearby.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=355939]

The private outdoor spaces are sized to match the residences themselves. Terraces on the upper levels frame uninterrupted ocean panoramas, and the planning ensures that living areas extend into those outdoor zones rather than treating them as separate attachments. The flow between the two is part of the design intent, not an afterthought.

Inside, the finish specification reflects the same approach. Rich stone benchtops, warm timber joinery, bespoke hardware, each element specified to hold up over time rather than read as a moment in a particular trend cycle.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=3409]

Beyond the residences, the amenity offering extends that register. A lap pool and sun deck anchor the outdoor space, alongside a magnesium pool, cold plunge, steam room, and sauna.

A commercial-grade gymnasium, residents' lounge, library, and boardroom round out a programme that functions more like a private members club than a standard building amenity floor.

Construction has commenced under Mosaic's in-house building arm, with completion scheduled for late 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150135]

Madeline by Mosaic delivers penthouse-level living across every apartment

Developer Fortezza Group is the latest to take its new apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-belvedere-5-7-church-street-nelson-bay-nsw-2315">The Belvedere in Nelson Bay</a>, to the NSW Government.

Fortezza, predominantly a South East Queensland developer, is the latest to apply for State Significant Development&nbsp; status through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority, a pathway becoming favoured by developers to speed up the approval process.

They are planning 57 two- and three-bedroom apartments across 5-7 Church Street and 42 Donald Street, near d'Albora Nelson Bay Marina. The diverse apartment mix has sizes from just over 80 sqm to the largest three-bedroom penthouses that reach nearly 200 sqm.

<img alt="Fortezza" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="090360e1-66d7-43ad-b686-aba81f173bf2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-29%20at%2010.22.40%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=DMqF96eBZolqSAAAcugX0l66ueWng66m" />

Fortezza calls the project a "piece of Istria in Nelson Bay,"&nbsp;referring to the largest peninsula in the Adriatic Sea, shared by Croatia (90%), Slovenia, and Italy, which is known for its Roman history, Venetian-style coastal towns and inland hilltop villages.

They say the The Belvedere is strategically positioned at the apex of Nelson Bay, offering unrivalled views of the ocean, the bay and captivating topography of the area.

"Our commitment to maintaining the integrity of every view and sight line has been relentless," Fortezza Group says.

"Through extensive modelling and analysis, we ensure that each apartment enjoys the natural beauty of Nelson Bay, regardless of future developments. Each design element is carefully curated to harmonise with our European heritage, drawing profound inspiration from the Roman architectural marvels in Istria. The arches, the cascades of greenery and the stonework that define our project pay homage to the structures that once exemplified Roman grandeur."

Residents will have access to a pool, communal green spaces, an office and a coffee shop.

First look: Fortezza Group takes The Belvedere, Nelson Bay apartment development, to NSW Government

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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OK so the ABS Building Activity data series doesn't quite run back to 1788, but take a Captain Cook at this:
<a href="/images/2015/10/19/BA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/19/BA3.jpg" alt="">
 
<div>Dwelling completions have surged to their highest ever level with more than 186,000 homes completed over the past year. Furthermore there are presently some 184,000 dwellings under construction, which is the highest number in Australia's history.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Many pundits scoffed at the Reserve Bank's plan to stimulate construction, but prices are rising and supply has responded with a vengeance, despite inflation in the cost of trades and materials. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As the largest cities have become denser over time, this construction cycle has largely been a story of units, townhouses and apartments - the "attached dwellings" sector. </div>
 Building work done 
<div>It should be acknowledged that in spite of all the numbers that are being thrown around in relation to record home starts, record completions and record dwellings under construction, the residential construction boom has likely now nudged against its peak. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite being higher over the year the value of new residential building work done slipped -3.4 per cent lower in the June quarter to $12.8 billion, although the resi sector was held up to some extent by a long overdue +4.0 per cent surge in major renovations work. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There has not been much to shout about from the non-residential sector since the financial crisis stimulus. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/19/BA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/19/BA1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>At the state level the economies of the most populous states have benefited from a building boom, but the value of building work done appears to have peaked, albeit remaining at a historically high level. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/19/BA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/10/19/BA2.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div> </div>
<div>
Dwelling completions by state <div>Where are new houses coming online? Mainly in Victoria with more than 31,000 houses completed over the past year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/19/BA4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/19/BA4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>As for units and apartments there has been a strong completion rate across most of the larger states, with Victoria again leading the way in completing nearly 25,000 units over the past year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/19/BA5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/10/19/BA5.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Although it will be the topic of a separate blog post, these figures show why the "Sydney oversupply" meme has been wide of the mark. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The above charts represent state level figures, and it is clear that the supply of new units and apartments has ramped up impressively over the past four years. But despite the improvement, total dwelling completions in New South Wales of 144,000 dwellings is barely keeping pace with a population which has surged by close to 400,000 over that time, while this follows on from a weak half decade of completions in the harbour city which ran from 2005.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>After accounting for stock obsolescence and demolitions, the thousands of apartments which are left vacant, and the fact that close to half of new dwellings in NSW over that time have been units (which typically house only provide accommodation for a couple)...well, there's not much overbuilding in aggregate to be found in those numbers, even if the rentals market is now fully supplied. It is much more difficult for a growing city with a population the size of Greater Sydney (approaching 5 million) to overbuild housing than it is for a city the size of, say, Belfast, although Melbourne is certainly giving its best shot. For all that, there are of course plenty of sub-regions around Australia with localised oversupply, and particularly so the case of higher-density dwellings. </div>
 Commencements peak at record high 
<div>Total commencements have increased by +14 per cent over the past year to a new high of nearly 210,000.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It was another strong quarter in June, but the 53,314 commencements result was below that of two of the preceding three quarters, and it is forecast that commencements will now decline through 2015/16.</div>
<a href="/images/2015/10/19/BA6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/19/BA6.jpg" alt="">
 
Finally, there are 184,000 dwellings under construction at the present time, which is the highest figure in Australia's history. 
Click to enlarge
<img src="/images/2015/10/19/BA7.jpg" alt="">
 
This should keep the residential construction sector operating at or close to its full capacity for some time to come.
 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
 
</div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Strongest homebuilding since 1788: Pete Wargent

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Media coverage of the Westpac decision to lift mortgage rates 0.2 percentage points has been typically sub-standard.
Many articles, inspired by economists suffering from limelight deficit syndrome, have portrayed this as a death knell for property markets.
As someone who has studied the relationship between interest rates and price movements, I can tell you that this is a not a reasonable conclusion.
Economists and journalists, with their simplistic thought processes, tend to believe that low interest rates = property boom, and rising interest rates = property decline. This contradicts both common sense and historical precedent.
Falling interest rates usually coincide with subdued property markets. The RBA cuts interest rates when the economy is struggling, consumer confidence is low and unemployment is rising – i.e. conditions which are least likely to produce property booms.
This is why most of Australia does not have booming property markets. Only Sydney, which is the centre of the one economy (NSW) that is really pumping, has had a boom. Melbourne, the capital of a state with an okay economy, has displayed some buoyancy but nothing approaching the dizzy heights of Sydney. 
Most of the state and territories have struggling economies and their capital city property markets – Perth, Hobart, Canberra, Darwin, Adelaide – have been stuck in neutral or reverse. Years of very low interest rates have been utterly irrelevant in all of these places.
Regional Australia is dotted with markets that have dropped sharply and others that have gone nowhere in terms of price movements. The exceptions are relatively few and most of them are located amid that one strong state economy, New South Wales. 
The bottom line is that interest rates usually are irrelevant. Economists appear to think they’re the only thing that matters and the sole determinant of outcomes in real estate. In truth, they have little or no bearing. 
Other factors have much greater influence. Sydney had its boom because a change of State Government in 2011 returned sanity and competence to governance, the economy started pumping again and infrastructure spending was revitalised. Money started circulating, businesses started spending, consumers started feeling good about things and the property market, which had been largely dormant for a decade, burst to life.
It would have happened whether the official interest rate was 2%, 4% or 6%.
Conversely, interest rates are most likely to be rising when the national economy is strong, with lots of jobs being created, confidence high and businesses spending big. These are the conditions that drive property booms – and the RBA will lift interest rates to dampen things down. 
Often it requires a long period of multiple rises to quell the buoyancy. Therefore, genuine national property booms – unlike what we have at the moment - usually coincide with periods of high or rising rates.
In the late 1980s, interest rates were lifted repeatedly without dampening the boom - and mortgage rates went as high as 17% before the bull run ended.
To suggest that a 0.2 percentage point rise by one lender will kill the (Sydney) boom shows a low level of understanding.
The reality is that the one major boom in the nation, Sydney’s, has been slowly deflating since the start of the year. APRA didn’t need to take action because the market was taking care of the situation without any interference from self-important bureaucrats.
And Westpac’s tiny nudge to interest rates will have no bearing on the situation.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Interest rates usually are irrelevant: Terry Ryder

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Despite a falling auction clearance rate, the volume of auctions being held across the combined capital cities and in particular, Melbourne, is rising.
Last week, the final auction clearance rate fell to 67.4% across 2,858 capital city auctions, while this week CoreLogic RP Data is expecting there to be just over 3,000 auctions held across the combined capital cities.
Melbourne will be the busiest city by far this week, with 1,710 auctions expected, indicating the busiest week for the city this year, but the auction market won’t be as busy as it was at the same time last year, when over the week 1,837 Melbourne homes were taken under the hammer. Last week, Melbourne was the strongest performing capital city market with both the highest volume of auctions (1,398) and the highest clearance rate (72.7%).
Notably, Melbourne’s auction performance last week was much stronger than Sydney, with the city recording its lowest clearance rate since early 2013 at 63.7%, representing a substantial fall from the previous week (69.6%). This week, Sydney is expecting 996 auctions to be held, relatively similar to last year when 961 Sydney homes were auctioned.
Auction markets will be busier in Brisbane (213), Adelaide (109) and Perth (35) this week compared to last week when 145, 93 and 16 auctions were held respectively. Canberra’s auction market activity will slow down this week, with 60 auctions expected, compared to 86 the previous week.
This week, the busiest individual suburbs for auctions are all in Victoria:
– Glen Waverley (30 auctions)
– Reservoir (23 auctions)
– Mount Waverley (22 auctions)
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Clearance rate falling, auction activity rising: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

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<div>Sydney house prices rose by a more sedate +3.2% in the September quarter to be up by +21.7% over the year to a median price of $1,032,422 reported Domain.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This followed on from a much faster +8.4% boom in Sydney house prices over the June quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney's median unit price increased by a little over $10,000 to $673,182 over the September quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile, Brisbane's median house price increased from $493,227 to $497,143 over the three months to September.</div>
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Sydney boom slows in Q3: Pete Wargent

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It didn’t take long for some property commentators to start declaring that the Sydney market was crashing when last week clearance rates came in at 65.1%.
The fools have been released from the asylum when you closely scrutinise this data where Sydney consists of approximately 700 suburbs, so are they all crashing? I looked up Mosman’s clearance rate for last week and it came in at a respectable 87.5% which is hardly crashing as some would have you believe. Don’t get me wrong it is clear that the Sydney real estate market is correcting rather than crashing – this is not a bad thing either.
The problem for some is that intellectually they can’t differentiate between the strong investment market over the owner occupier market, with the investment market cooling at a much more rapid pace due to lending restrictions and consumer sentiment adjustments – which are long overdue.
Many consumers who are chasing investment properties should be quite concerned about what’s around the corner and I’m not referring to banks increasing their respective lending rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) can stand aside for the moment because on Melbourne Cup day should it decide to lower the cash rate the major banks won’t be following suit with Westpac, CBA, NAB and ANZ hiking their rates just in the last week. As soon as one moves inevitably the others will all follow although it would be highly unlikely that Westpac will be the next to increase rates.
All eyes should now be on the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) who have now taken over the responsibility of being Australia’s property watchdog. In 39 days the amnesty period for illegal property acquisitions expires and then we will start to see how many have deliberately broken the laws by purchasing Australian real estate – my tip is this will be huge where we can expect 2016 to be the year of the Divestment Order.
This may surprise you that there is a much larger property investigation that will have a significant impact on Australia’s property industry. That being Student Visa Holders who are allowed to purchase a property whilst completing their tertiary studies on the proviso that when they have completed their degrees the subject property must then be sold. The only problem is that Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) who are entrusted to monitor such acquisitions have never actually followed through so we now have no idea how many thousands of properties this includes.
To make matters worse on 18 December 2008, the Rudd Government changed the policy where Student Visa Holder residents in Australia are no longer subject to a $300,000 limit on the value of an established dwelling as their residence. This then saw some students acquiring multi – million dollar residences. Also temporary residents were not required to notify FIRB of any intended acquisitions for established dwellings that were to be their principal place of residence.
Again we are talking about thousands and thousands of transactions where many will now end up with Divestment Orders.
The RBA this week declared in its biannual Financial Stability Review that “Recent investigations by regulators have revealed that standards were somewhat weaker than had originally been thought.” In that case any significant increase in property volumes onto the market would see prices coming down as these are established properties, so unlike off–the–plan properties where 100% can be sold offshore to non-Australian residents.
We are now seeing the housing price growth at its slowest pace since 2012 – which explains why the ATO have a duty of care when they start issuing Divestment Orders. We can also expect to see many households fixing interest rates on their respective mortgages.
A positive sign for those renting, when last Friday the Australian Bureau of Statistics finally got around to updating Australia’s housing occupancy data (the last release was in 2013), the proportion of those renting has edged up to 31.4% with 63.4% of Australians renting being under 35. To further identify just how big the investment market for real estate in Australia is, 1.5 million households now own investment properties on top of their principal place of residence.
Whilst the finger is clearly pointed at negative gearing (I will address that next week) when it was introduced in the late 1990’s, approximately 40% of houses were owned outright with only 28% renting.
The issues are clear in that we have problems with policy making, and that requires urgent attention although this has not been helped with actual mortgage interest rates falling from 7.1% to 4.7% over the past five years.
Property is all about supply vs demand – supply is what we need to be paying closer attention to, so watch the ATO with great interest. Who would have ever thought the ATO would play a central position with Australia’s property markets.
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 104 • Number of houses on the market last week – 61
• Number of houses on the market this week – 64
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 65
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 59
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 60
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 19
• Number of houses on the market last week – 9
• Number of houses on the market this week – 10
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 32
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 23
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 22
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 7
• Number of houses on the market last week – 13
•Number of houses on the market this week – 10
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 51
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 32
*Number of apartments on the market this week – 33
 
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
<div> </div>
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Concerns about upcoming Divestment Orders: Robert Simeon

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There are mounting signs that Australia’s housing market may be moving through the peak of the cycle, however it is important to remember that strong housing market conditions have been evident in Sydney and Melbourne while every other capital city has shown relatively sedate conditions.
CoreLogic’s September indices results, released two weeks ago, showed that Sydney dwellings values remained flat over the month and other data flows are also pointing to a moderation in growth conditions across Australia’s largest city and the broader housing market.
The factors that hinting at a market peak (and outlined in further detail below) include:
<ul>
<li>Auction results have been consistently moderating, especially in Sydney where clearance rates have been sub 70% consistently over the past five weeks</li>
<li>Listing numbers are rising, which is normal during the Spring season, but a higher than normal number of homes are being added to the market in Sydney which is contributing to higher stock levels than a year ago and rising months of supply.</li>
<li>Investment demand is moderating due to both tougher lending from the banks as well as market disincentives such as low yields, affordability constraints and a mature growth cycle.</li>
<li>Mortgage related activity has fallen across CoreLogic platforms. Although activity remains higher than a year ago, mortgage related events are down from heights seen over the first half of 2015 and aren’t seeing their normal spring bounce.</li>
<li>Rents are hardly moving which has pushed rental yields to historic lows in Sydney and Melbourne. Paying a landlord is likely becoming more affordable than paying a mortgage despite the low interest rate setting.</li>
<li>The cost of debt is rising outside of any upwards movement in the cash rate. Higher debt servicing costs can only act as a disincentive.</li>
<li>Supply levels are set to rise further as the pipeline of approvals moves through the commencement phase and onto completed housing product. Inner city apartment markets are most exposed to higher supply.</li>
</ul>
While conditions may be starting to slowdown, particularly in Sydney, the coming months will provide further clarity about housing market conditions. Picking the turning point in the housing market is easy in retrospect, but as the market evolves it can be hard to separate short term movements from the beginnings of a longer term trend.   The coming months of data flows through to the end of the year will provide a great deal more perspective.”
Mature growth cycle The current growth cycle broadly commenced in June 2012, with dwelling values shifting almost 32% higher since this time across the combined capital cities. The rate of capital gains has been led by Sydney where values are almost 50% higher, and Melbourne where dwelling values have shifted 35% higher over the cycle to date. Brisbane has seen the third highest rate of value growth over the period at a comparatively modest 14.5% showing the multi-tiered nature of the capital city housing market at present.
<a href="/images/2015/10/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-26%20at%2011.04.03%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-26%20at%2011.04.03%20AM.png" alt="" width="790" height="598">
Dwelling values do fall. Capital city dwelling values retreated by 7.2% over the previous down phase which lasted from October 2010 through to the end of May 2012, and previously during the GFC period of 2008 capital city dwelling values shifted 6.1% lower.
<a href="/images/2015/10/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-26%20at%2011.05.26%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-26%20at%2011.05.26%20AM.png" alt="" width="836" height="614">
 
Auction results are moderating but remain historically high The auction market peaked over the last week of April this year with a combined capital city clearance rate of 82%. Since that time, clearance rates have been consistently falling, with weekly clearance rates holding below the 70% mark over the past five weeks.
Sydney has shown a similar trend, with clearance rates peaking at 90% over the last week of April. Sydney’s clearance rate was recorded at 63% last week, the lowest clearance since March 2013. The lower clearance rate comes on substantially higher volumes compared with a year ago. The Spring season to date has seen 7,193 auctions held across Sydney which is 1,609 (29%) higher than over the same period a year ago.
The slump in clearance rates hasn’t been as sharp in Melbourne where the weekly clearance peaked at 87% over the last week of April and has consistently reduced to the current level of around 73%. Melbourne clearance rates haven’t slipped below 70% since February this year. Auction volumes across Melbourne are at roughly the same level as a year ago, with 7,394 auctions held so far this Spring (7,381 at the same period a year ago).
Outside of Sydney and Melbourne, auction sales are only a small proportion of all sales. Over the year to date, Sydney and Melbourne account for 84% of all auctions held across the capital cities.
<a href="/images/2015/10/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-26%20at%2011.07.10%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-26%20at%2011.07.10%20AM.png" alt="" width="880" height="1011">
Listing numbers are rising While it’s normal for listing numbers to ramp up during the Spring season, the number of new listings being added to the Sydney housing market is now 4.4% higher than last year and total listing are nearly 6% higher than a year ago suggesting new advertised supply isn’t being absorbed as fast as a year ago. The same trend of higher listing numbers has been evident for some time in the weakest housing markets of Darwin and Perth where total listing are roughly 12% higher compared with a year ago.
<a href="/images/2015/10/26/8-580x378.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/26/8-580x378.jpg" alt="">
 
Listing numbers haven’t seen the same escalation in Melbourne where the housing market doesn’t appear to be slowing at the same pace as the Sydney market. Listing numbers remain lower than a year ago in Brisbane, Adelaide and Hobart as well, where value growth has been much more moderate compared with Sydney and Melbourne.
With listing numbers rising in some markets, ‘months of supply’ is also rising
‘Months of supply’ provides an indication about how long it would take, based on the current rate of sale, the market to absorb all the homes currently being advertised for sale. Sydney is still showing the months of supply reading at 2.4 months, however, we have seen the first rise in this reading since 2012. At the same time, months of supply is holding firm in Melbourne but reducing in Brisbane, Adelaide and Hobart. Where housing market conditions are weaker (Perth, Darwin, Canberra) the monthly of supply readings are rising, providing better buying conditions for prospective purchasers.
<a href="/images/2015/10/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-26%20at%2011.12.39%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-26%20at%2011.12.39%20AM.png" alt="">
Investment demand appears to be moderating The value of investment related housing finance commitments has reduced over three of the past four months and owner occupiers have once again overtaken investors as being the most active segment of the housing market based on the value of new loans being committed to.
 The slowdown in investment related mortgage activity has been evident across every state, but has been most felt in New South Wales, where investors have reduced from comprising nearly 63% of the market in May this year to a much lower (but still high from a historical perspective) 54.9% in August. It’s likely investment activity has reduced further over recent months due to the premium being placed on investment mortgage rates and a requirement for larger deposits, as well as natural disincentives such as record low rental yields and affordability and affordability constraints.
<a href="/images/2015/10/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-26%20at%2011.14.16%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-26%20at%2011.14.16%20AM.png" alt="">
 
Mortgage related activity has eased from historically high levels across CoreLogic mortgage platforms
CoreLogic facilitates more than 90% of all mortgage related valuation instructions, which provides one of the timeliest indicators of mortgage activity available. While mortgage activity is approximately 4% higher than at the same time last year, activity has moderated from the highs recorded earlier in the year.
<a href="/images/2015/10/26/15-580x301.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/26/15-580x301.jpg" alt="">
Weekly rents are hardly moving and gross rental yields have pushed to record lows Across the combined capital cities, weekly rents have increased by only half a percent over the past twelve months. At a time when capital city dwelling values have increased by 11.0%, the sluggish pace of rental movements has pushed rental yields to the lowest level on record.
Gross rental yields are the lowest in Melbourne and Sydney at just 3.0% and 3.3% respectively (lower for detached houses and slightly higher for apartments) and also sit at record low levels. Accounting for holding costs such as vacancy, property management fees, maintenance etc, the net rental yield in these cities likely to be around the low to mid two percent mark.
The low yield scenario is likely to act as another disincentive for investors at a time when the growth cycle has been running for almost three and half years. for investors at a time when the growth cycle has been running for almost three and half years.
<a href="/images/2015/10/26/16-580x152.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/26/16-580x152.jpg" alt="">
 
Costs of debt are rising out of cycle with the cash rate
In July this year Australia’s largest banks placed a premium on investment related mortgage rates of between 27 and 29 basis points. More recently, Westpac has announced additional premiums on mortgage rates for both owner occupier and investment loans outside of any movement in the cash rate.
<a href="/images/2015/10/26/17-580x227.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/26/17-580x227.jpg" alt="">
 
Supply levels are set to increase further
Dwelling approvals appear to have peaked earlier this year after an unprecedented boom in the number of dwellings approved for construction. As the pipeline of approvals migrates to project commencements and ultimately completions, we can expect the supply of new housing, particularly apartments, to provide a further easing in price upwards price pressures.
The majority of new supply set to hit the market will be in Melbourne and Sydney where population growth has remained the strongest, however Brisbane and Perth have also seen a substantial influx of new housing approvals. In last week’s Financial Stability Review the Reserve Bank warned of the risk of a potential housing over-supply in inner city areas of Melbourne and Brisbane due to the large boom in new apartment construction.
<a href="/images/2015/10/26/18-580x202.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/26/18-580x202.jpg" alt="">
Tim Lawless is head of the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team and can be contacted <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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tlawless-5VLUrbAk9s

The seven signs that the property market may be peaking: Tim Lawless

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There’s little doubt that the Sydney slowdown is under way.
I note that the boffin who runs APRA is trying to claim credit for a reduction in investor activity, but the wind-down in Sydney sales volumes pre-dated his misguided measures to prevent investors from buying real estate.
In terms of sales activity, Sydney peaked way back in the December Quarter of 2013. Auction frenzy and price growth has continued because sales levels have fallen away only gradually. And history shows that markets take time to adjust to new circumstances. Sales activity can be falling for six months or more before prices start to react.
Transactions in the March Quarter 2015 were down on the December 2014 Quarter and also below the March 2014 Quarter. The June 2015 Quarter has shown a further gradual decline. 
The most telling barometer of the Sydney slowdown is the number of individual growth markets, as revealed by Hotspotting’s quarterly research for the Price Predictor Index. 
The February research found 118 suburbs with rising sales activity across the Sydney metropolitan area. The May survey found 72. The latest research finds only 36 suburbs with a growth trajectory.
The dominant market type in Sydney now is what we call “plateau” markets. These are suburbs where sales activity was previously rising, but now sales levels have tapered off – still at a healthy level, but below the peak activity.
This is an indicator that the market is beginning to loose its heat.
Another indicator that the cycle has almost run its course is that the leading growth markets are on the fringes of the metropolitan area.
The leading precincts, still with growth markets, are the Campbelltown (far south-west) and Penrith (far west) municipalities.
Other areas still hanging in there (lots of plateau markets) include the Bankstown, Blacktown and Parramatta municipalities.
Yet another sign that the boom cycle has moved on is the performance of regional New South Wales markets. I’ve reported previously that Sydney’s momentum has rippled out into regional centres – firstly those close to Sydney, like Wollongong, Gosford and Newcastle, and more recently those further afield.
The latest survey shows that Regional NSW has considerably more growth markets than Sydney does – almost double the number, in fact. 
Sydney is declining, but doesn’t know it, while the state’s regional cities are increasingly buoyant.
Tuned-in investors will have moved on from Sydney some time ago. The price growth of the near future will be found in places like Port Macquarie, Albury, Goulburn, Coffs Harbour and Tweed Heads.
 
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Sydney is declining, but doesn’t know it: Terry Ryder

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How does a property-valuer come up with distinct values of the same property and all within four weeks?
Background: 
A couple were splitting up amicably and both accepted to explore the opportunity to buying each other out. Each party made loan applications to separate lenders for finance. Both parties agreed to buy the other out at $520,000.
First Valuation - Strike one:
The first attempt at financing the purchase was made and a property-valuer was engaged by lending body to provide a valuation report. The mortgage broker received notice that the valuation report provided to the bank, stated the value of the home was only: $500,000.
Second Valuation - Strike two:
A week later, the second party attempted to obtain finance with a different lender and the lender appointed their panel valuer. The valuer on their panel, so happens to be the same valuer. BINGO!! You guessed it, the valuation came back at $500,000.
Third and Final Valuation - Strike three?
The subject property is placed on the market. The agency suggested a cleanup of the garden and staging of the home. A keen purchaser exchanged contracts at $545,000.
The new purchaser’s lender sent their panel valuer, 4 weeks after the first valuation was obtained, now wait for it: YES, the same valuer appeared on the scene.
This time however, the property valuation report came in at contract price: $545,000.
What happened from the first to the third valuation other than; mowing lawns and a simple make-over?
Leave me your thoughts:
Before you go jumping to conclusions and for the savvy mortgage brokers out there, here is a little more background information;
<ul>
<li>The couple had approximately $180,000 equity in the home.</li>
<li>The new purchaser obtained a 95% LVR on their mortgage. Figures disclosed to the agent at the time of purchase. </li>
<li>The property settled on or about three months ago; time calculated from publishing of this article.</li>
</ul>
Now please: this is your turn to enlighten me with what just happened? I welcome your comments and this with great anticipation. 
EDWIN ALMEIDA is licensee in charge of <a href="https://www.just-think.com.au/" target="_blank">Just Think Real Estate</a>.<a href="https://www.just-thin.com.au/"> </a>
He is also the creator of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/JustThinkProperty" target="_blank">Oz Real Estate.TV</a> and a presenter for <a href="https://propertyinvestingvault.com/" target="_blank">propertyinvestingvault.com</a>.
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How can property valuations be miles apart? Edwin Almeida

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Here's a clue as to why Sydney has been having a property boom that no other capital city has come close to matching. NSW has the nation's No.1 economy and, according to ABS data, has created more jobs in the past six months than the rest of Australia combined. 
That remarkable situation provides the best explanation of the Sydney real estate boom, far more so than the flimsy offering from most economists, who attribute the boom to low interest rates (but can't explain why Brisbane, Perth, Canberra, Adelaide, Darwin, Hobart and most of regional Australia aren't having price booms). 
The Sydney/NSW economy is pumping, boosted by high levels of spending on infrastructure and a return of business confidence thanks to changes in the political scene.
According to the ABS, NSW has added 85,600 jobs since January. All the other states and territories have managed a combined 68,000. 
The NSW economy has been rising steadily ever since the worst government in my lifetime, the 16-year-old NSW Labor Government, was tossed out in a predictable landslide in 2011.
With that change, things that had been long absent from Sydney and NSW began to happen again. Decisions started being made. Infrastructure spending resumed. The economy awoke from its coma and business re-opened. Jobs started to be created, with those latest figures from the ABS providing evidence of a process that has been four years in the making.
According to ANZ research, employment growth in NSW has been led by four industry sectors: health, education, hospitality and professional services.
It’s not a coincidence that the rise of the Sydney property market after 10 dormant years has happened during this resuscitation of the NSW economy.
Low interest rates, the fallback position of economists who haven’t got a clue (i.e. most of them), have little or nothing to do with Sydney’s elevated market.
If it was all about interest rates, Perth prices would be zooming instead of going backwards. A clue to the decline of the Perth market is also found in the ABS employment figures: Western Australia, previously a leading generator of jobs, has created only 8,500 positions in the past six months, one-tenth of that managed by NSW. Since January the WA unemployment rate has risen from 5.5% to 6.3%.
Just three years ago, the NSW ranked joint second last, alongside South Australia, in the CommSec State of the States report. Back in July 2012, it was “WA first and daylight second”, according to one media report. The ACT, the Northern Territory, Queensland and Victoria all ranked above mediocre NSW, which was tied with SA in sixth place, with only Tasmania ranked lower.
Fast forward three years and the latest State of the States report indicates that NSW is now entrenched as the No.1 strongest economy in the land, having taken over the top ranking from WA last year. 
NSW ranks first or second among the states and territories on population growth, retail trade, employment, equipment investment and housing construction.
A growing economy, extensive spending on transport and other infrastructure, the return of confidence in the state government and the local economy, solid population growth, jobs being created – that’s the recipe that cooked up Sydney’s real estate surge. And it would have happened if the RBA hadn’t been cutting interest rates.
 TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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The recipe that cooked up Sydney’s real estate surge: Terry Ryder

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A survey by researcher Michael Matusik has confirmed what many in the real estate industry knew or suspected – that developer claims about sales in their unit projects are often a pack of lies.
He surveyed 10 recently-completed projects with a combined 1,500 apartments in the Brisbane inner-city market and found that sales rates were, in most cases, agonizingly slow - quite a contrast to the claims of “selling fast”, “few remain” and “50% sold within the first month of release”.
He says many claims made by developers and marketers are so outrageously false, they should be investigated and prosecuted by the relevant authorities.
His conclusions: “The sales rates promoted in many new apartment advertisements are optimistic at best. In some case, there’s outright lying, which should be challenged by ASIC and the real estate institute.”
Amen to that. Project proponents who falsely claim to have made high levels of off-the-plan sales often goad gullible investors or home-buyers into hasty action, for fear of missing out. These buyers often end up with dud investments, over-priced and falling in value.
I get frequent emails from investors, usually impressionable young people, who are being pressured by accountants, solicitors or financial advisors into buying off-the-plan apartments in the inner-city suburbs of our major cities. 
They are bombarded with claims of high sales rates, never-to-be-repeated offers and the prospect of windfall capital gains. They’re under heavy pressure and highly stressed, because they’re afraid of making a decision they’ll regret. Many are unaware of the massive commissions their “advisors” will receive if they buy.
It’s the dirty underbelly of the property industry that regulators seem powerless to eradicate. But a clampdown on false claims about sales rates as a way of enticing buyers would be quite easy for ASIC or the Office of Trade Trading to police.
If Matusik can conduct a revealing survey, surely the authorities with their much greater resources can do the same or better.
His survey found that the true sales rate among the surveyed developments was just three apartments per project per month. The results ranged from one to seven sales per month per project, but the average was three sales per month. It took most of the projects 15 months to sell enough units (i.e. over 60% of the project) to start construction.
“The shortest time period to sell out a project was 21 months, while the average time was just over three years,” Matusik said. “Several projects took over four years to sell out.”
Amazing to consider these results, against frequent claims by project proponents of having sold half the units even before the launch of marketing, or having sold out most of the project in the first weekend of marketing. Often an expression of interest is classified as a sale.
Media reports such claims as gospel, when often they’re shameless fabrications. Journalists don’t challenge anything anymore.
Matusik says: “We need some clear rules. For mine, an off-the-plan sales can only be reported as ‘sold’ if the contract is signed, unconditional as to finance and the stipulated deposit has been paid.”
This issue will get worse before it gets better, given the upcoming tsunami of new apartment projects in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane and Perth as our major cities head into an era of over-supply.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can  <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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New apartments

New townhouses

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