Design-led developer-builder Lowe Living has unveiled its latest residential development, Jardin House, marking its first foray into Melbourne's blue-chip City of Boroondara.

Located a short walk from Camberwell Junction, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/jardin-house-by-lowe-living-camberwell-335-camberwell-road-camberwell-vic-3124">Jardin House</a> has been designed to appeal to affluent local downsizers and established families seeking a low-maintenance alternative to the large homes that have long defined Camberwell and surrounding suburbs.

The project will comprise a collection of two and three-bedroom apartments ranging from 92 sqm to 280 sqm, alongside a limited number of penthouse residences featuring rooftop terraces spanning more than 100 sqm, with optional private pools.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146717 project_image_fid=372212]

Lowe Living Co-Founder and Managing Director Tim Lowe said Camberwell represented a natural next step for the developer as it expands into some of Melbourne's most tightly held residential markets.

"Jardin House is an important project for our team as it marks the next evolution of our portfolio into different well-established blue-chip pockets of Melbourne," Lowe said.

"Camberwell, with its incredible walkability, family-led neighbourhood feel and superb access to education and transport, makes it a natural choice for us."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146717 project_image_fid=372227]

Designed by Tristan Wong Architects, with interiors by Hecker Guthrie and landscaping by Acre, the development takes inspiration from the Art Deco architecture that remains a defining feature of many of Camberwell's established streets.

A curved facade, arched openings, textured brickwork and sculpted forms reference the suburb's architectural heritage, while extensive landscaping softens the building's presence and creates a strong connection to the surrounding tree-lined streetscape.

The project will be set behind a secure gated entrance, with residents arriving through landscaped gardens designed to create a transition between the public realm and private residences.

Inside, the residences feature natural stone and timber finishes, full-height glazing, Miele appliances and generous open-plan living areas designed for long-term owner occupation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146717 project_image_fid=372225]

While the apartments themselves have been designed to attract discerning owner-occupiers, it is the amenity offering that sets Jardin House apart from many other boutique projects currently launching across Melbourne.

The centrepiece is a 350 sqm private bathhouse curated in partnership with Aurora Spa &amp; Bathhouse founder Lyndall Mitchell.

The wellness precinct includes mineral pools, hydrotherapy experiences, a Himalayan salt room, sauna, steam room, cold plunge pools and dedicated relaxation spaces, creating what Lowe Living describes as a private wellness retreat exclusively for residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146717 project_image_fid=372222]

The collaboration follows Lowe Living's recent partnership with Aurora at Maison Savoy in Brighton, although Jardin House is the first project to incorporate both indoor and outdoor wellness experiences.

Emma Lowe, Co-Founder and Managing Director of Lowe Living, said wellness was becoming an increasingly important consideration for apartment buyers.

"Collaborating with Lyndall Mitchell from Aurora Spa &amp; Bathhouse for a second time is an intentional nod to creating residences that are more than just homes, but a way to enrich the lives of our residents through wellness and longevity," Lowe said.

The amenity offering is complemented by a Technogym fitness studio, residents' lounge, private dining spaces and concierge services.

The launch comes as developers increasingly target Melbourne's established eastern suburbs, where rising land values, ageing housing stock and growing downsizer demand are creating opportunities for boutique apartment projects.

Lowe said the company expects significant generational wealth transfer across suburbs such as Camberwell in coming years, creating further demand for luxury apartment living.

"Camberwell is a blue-chip suburb where homes regularly transact for multiple millions of dollars," he said.

"The generational change of wealth in these locations expected in the coming years is significant, so we see an opportunity to create exclusive residences that appeal to older families and downsizers in order to meet this demand."

Apartments at Jardin house start from $1,195,000. The project forms part of Lowe Living's near-$1 billion portfolio of new developments across Melbourne.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=146717]

Joel Robinson

Lowe Living launches Jardin House in Camberwell

As <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/north-sydney-nsw-2060">North Sydney</a> continues its transition from a commercial centre into a more layered residential and lifestyle precinct, a new generation of apartment developments is reshaping expectations around scale, amenity, and long-term liveability.

Improved transport connections through the Victoria Cross Metro, continued investment in dining and public spaces, and a constrained supply of new luxury apartments have sharpened demand for homes that combine proximity to the CBD with the privacy and outlook traditionally associated with harbourside houses.

At 177 Walker Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aland">ALAND</a>’s new apartment development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-walden-north-sydney-177-walker-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">The Walden</a> enters the market with a distinctly residential approach to high-rise living. The 30-level tower will deliver 161 residences, ranging from one-bedroom apartments through to sub-penthouses and a full-floor penthouse, all oriented to capture uninterrupted views across Sydney Harbour, the Opera House, and out toward the Pacific Ocean.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6395]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, the project takes advantage of the site’s natural topography and elevated position above the harbour. Rather than relying on density alone, the architecture focuses on outlook, orientation, and spatial flow, with every apartment occupying a corner position to maximise natural light and cross ventilation.

Rothelowman says the site itself shaped much of the architectural response.

“The site has a long history in terms of its inevitable transformation and when we came in, we took inspiration from the idea of reestablishing a sense of the site’s natural terrain and fall. Our scheme aims to integrate with the terrain and the landscape, using the undulating site to slowly reveal glimpses and views of the harbour. The rotation of the tower off grid means every apartment has a view and is naturally cross ventilated. The building's colour palette is quintessentially Sydney, with bronze and sandstone and a luminescent green colour in the glass, making it very earthy and grounded in its location.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6399]

Inside the residences, the emphasis moves toward larger-format living typically associated with standalone homes. Kitchens sit at the centre of the apartments, connecting directly to open-plan dining and living areas before extending outward into expansive winter gardens and balconies. Calacatta marble, bespoke joinery, integrated appliances, and custom metal detailing are used throughout, while three distinct interior palettes, Terrace, Opera, and Harbour, allow buyers to personalise the spaces without compromising the architectural consistency of the project.

The larger residences place particular attention on separation between entertaining and private zones. In many apartments, master suites occupy the outer corners of the floorplates, allowing bedrooms to benefit from floor-to-ceiling glazing and harbour outlooks independent of the living spaces. Dressing rooms and ensuites continue the material palette through fluted detailing, freestanding baths, and layered stone finishes.

Rothelowman says the design intent centred on creating homes that feel enduring rather than transient.

“Our philosophy is all about the way people live in these spaces, and we wanted to create homes that reflect the quality of life in this unique Sydney location. The apartments showcase expansive living spaces that are generous, sophisticated, and bold, with the ability to connect with views throughout each apartment.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=353235]

A separate four-storey amenity building known as The Pavilion expands the residential offering beyond the apartments themselves. Positioned alongside the tower, the building consolidates wellness, recreation, and social spaces into a dedicated resident retreat. Facilities include a 20-metre rooftop pool and sundeck, sauna, spa, ice bath, wellness studio, gymnasium, concierge service, wine cellar, residents’ lounge, private dining spaces, and dedicated co-working areas with meeting rooms and boardroom facilities.

The amenity mix reflects the buyer profile emerging in North Sydney, where owner-occupiers and downsizers are increasingly prioritising convenience, apartment scale, and long-term usability over purely investment-driven decisions.

The Walden also represents a significant milestone for ALAND, marking the company’s first major move into Sydney’s inner-city luxury apartment market after more than two decades delivering large-scale residential communities across Greater Sydney. Founder Andrew Hrsto says the Walker Street site stood apart because of both its positioning and its rarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6390]

“As a company, we had been searching for a site in one of Sydney’s blue-chip locations, spanning the Eastern Suburbs, the Sydney CBD and the North Shore, and when we had the opportunity to purchase this site, we immediately recognised that it could be something iconic.”

At launch, The Walden recorded more than $103 million in sales, with buyers drawn to the project’s harbour positioning, apartment scale, and proximity to the Metro, which now connects North Sydney to Barangaroo in three minutes and Martin Place in five.

ALAND has commenced construction, and is expecting a completion date in 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134323]

The Walden pairs house-scale living with North Sydney connectivity

The ACT will become the first jurisdiction in Australia to abolish stamp duty for all first home buyers, with no income caps and no property price thresholds from 1 July.

The move, announced as part of the ACT Budget, completes a key election commitment from the Barr Government and removes what Chief Minister Andrew Barr described as one of the biggest barriers to entering the housing market. The reform forms part of the ACT's long-running transition away from transaction taxes and towards a broader-based property tax system.

"This budget marks a major milestone in our long-term tax reform program," Barr said, adding that the government had maintained a sustained focus on removing barriers to home ownership. He said stamp duty had long been one of the largest upfront hurdles facing buyers and that from July, "that barrier is gone" for first home buyers in the Territory.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=139989 project_image_fid=350986]

The changes come alongside a range of measures designed to encourage new housing supply, including support for the delivery of so-called "missing middle" housing such as terraces, townhouses and low-rise multi-unit developments.

The announcement has renewed debate around whether the ACT's approach could provide a blueprint for improving housing affordability nationally.

New research from OurTop10.com.au, conducted by Primara Research, suggests the Territory's decade-long reform agenda has produced outcomes unmatched elsewhere in Australia.

While stamp duty costs have increased by an average 67 per cent nationally over the past decade, the ACT has recorded growth of just 15 per cent, the lowest increase of any jurisdiction.

The Territory has also emerged as one of the strongest performers on housing delivery. Based on population-weighted housing targets, the ACT is sitting less than one per cent behind its target. Victoria is the next closest at seven per cent behind, while the national average sits 25 per cent below target. New South Wales is tracking 39 per cent behind.

The latest reform removes one of the final barriers facing first home buyers in Canberra.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=139989 project_image_fid=359152]

The average Australian home buyer currently pays $61,714 in stamp duty. In the ACT, that figure is $38,399 despite the Territory having the third-highest median house price in the country.

Until now, the ACT's first home buyer concession scheme only applied to purchases up to $1.02 million, around $51,000 below Canberra's median house price of $1.071 million. In practical terms, many first home buyers were unable to access the median-priced home without losing the concession.

From July, those restrictions disappear.

Every first home buyer in the ACT will pay no stamp duty, regardless of income or purchase price.

Canberra remains one of Australia's most expensive housing markets, with dwelling values increasing 82 per cent over the past decade. However, that growth ranks only 11th among Australia's 15 major housing markets, suggesting affordability pressures have been less severe than in many other parts of the country.

Simon Ma, CEO of OurTop10.com.au, said the latest reforms recognise that many first home buyers have simply outgrown thresholds set years ago.

"Many first home buyers aren't just looking for a way onto the ladder, they want a home their family can actually live in," Ma said.

"In a market where the median house price is over a million dollars, a concession scheme that cuts out at $1.02 million was never going to get them there.

"Removing the ceiling entirely means ACT first home buyers can now pursue the home they actually want, rather than limiting themselves to a price point designed for a very different market."

Whether other states follow remains to be seen. But at a time when most jurisdictions are struggling to improve affordability while also increasing housing supply, the ACT has quietly become the national test case for both.

15% stamp duty growth. Just 1% off the national housing target. Zero stamp duty for FHBs. Is the ACT the blueprint for the great Australian dream?

ACT abolishes stamp duty for first home buyers

A rooftop pool and spa overlooking the Brisbane CBD, private dining spaces, expansive landscaped gardens and a residents' lounge are set to crown <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/callista-on-park-west-end-49-mollison-street-west-end-qld-4101">Callista on Park</a>, the final residential building within Brisbane's West Village precinct.

The rooftop amenity collection has been designed as an extension of the lifestyle already established throughout West Village, providing residents with a series of indoor and outdoor spaces that capitalise on the building's elevated position above West End.

A swimming pool and heated spa form the centrepiece of the rooftop offering, surrounded by landscaped gardens developed through a collaboration between developer Sekisui House and ASPECT Studios. The design incorporates expansive lawn areas surrounded by English garden-inspired planting.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134800 project_image_fid=370648]

Residents will also have access to two barbecue and outdoor dining areas positioned to take advantage of views across Brisbane's skyline, neighbouring Mollison Park, and the surrounding inner-city landscape.

For larger gatherings, the rooftop includes a private dining room centred around a substantial stone island bench, complete with a full kitchen and a 10-seat dining table set beneath four-metre-high ceilings. The space has been designed to overlook both the rooftop gardens and the Brisbane CBD skyline.

A separate residents' lounge provides an additional indoor retreat connected to the broader rooftop amenity offering, creating another space for residents to work, relax or entertain guests.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134800 project_image_fid=370647]

The attention to detail extends beyond the rooftop.

Upon arrival, residents will enter through a lobby featuring a bespoke ceiling light installation developed in collaboration between Sekisui House and Alcorn Middleton Architecture. The arrival experience is complemented by private resident mailboxes and carefully considered interior finishes designed to reflect the premium positioning of the building.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134800 project_image_fid=372541]

The amenity offering forms part of Callista on Park, the final residential release within the decade-long transformation of the former Peters Ice Cream Factory site into West Village, one of Brisbane's most established mixed-use communities.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> and being delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/hutchinson-builders">Hutchinson Builders</a>, Callista represents the most premium residential offering within the masterplanned precinct.

Construction is now entering its final stages, with scaffolding beginning to come down and completion expected in the first quarter of 2027.

Prices for the three-bedroom plus MPR apartments start from just over $2.6 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134800 project_image_fid=351535]

Callista will mark the final opportunity to purchase within West Village, where residents have direct access to more than 35 retail, dining, wellness and medical operators including Harris Farm Markets, Woolworths, Function Well and Goodlife Health Clubs, Metro Arts, and a growing collection of restaurants and cafés.

Located just 800 metres from the Brisbane CBD, the precinct also places residents within walking distance of South Bank, West End's dining scene, riverfront parklands and major public transport connections.

For Sekisui House, which has delivered more than two million homes globally, Callista serves as the concluding piece of the West Village masterplan, bringing together the precinct's heritage character, parkland setting and emphasis on walkability in a final collection of larger-format residences.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134800]

Rooftop pool, private dining and skyline gardens to crown West Village's final apartment release, Callista on Park

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/wahroonga-nsw-2076">Wahroonga</a>’s enduring appeal has long been tied to its balance of bushland, established amenity, and access to some of Sydney’s most respected education and healthcare institutions.

Along Fox Valley Road, that combination is becoming increasingly sought after by buyers looking to remain connected to the Upper North Shore lifestyle while prioritising walkability, wellbeing, and convenience.

Developer Capital Corporation's initial vision of a 62-hectare site on Fox Valley Road was that they could create their own walkable community, bordered by&nbsp;more than 25 hectares of bushland and adjoining Coups Creek.

<img alt="Wahroonga" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b84917a1-0d75-49b9-888c-ddf7ebfd6692" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/NEW2026_Wahroonga_Walkway.gif?VersionId=Gk3_xi5ssYfalmwuQQ5umQakddceC31j" />

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-residences-at-wahroonga-estate-169-fox-valley-road-wahroonga-nsw-2076">The Residences at Wahroonga Estate</a> draws directly on the area’s natural landscape, with walking trails and green corridors linking into sections of Lane Cove National Park. The surrounding network of bushwalks, cycling tracks, and reserves reinforces the suburb’s long-standing reputation as one of Sydney’s most nature-oriented residential pockets, while still maintaining close ties to village retail and transport infrastructure.

The address places residents within minutes of Wahroonga and Turramurra villages, where cafés, local grocers, boutiques, and everyday services support a highly localised lifestyle. Popular nearby venues including The Fox Café and Breeze Valley Café provide easy options for morning coffee or casual dining, while longstanding retailers such as IGA Wahroonga Fresh and Novella Fine Books continue to anchor the area’s village character.

&nbsp;

<img alt="Wahroonga" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c4a950f7-4f05-4370-b360-b106359788e5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/2026_Wahroonga_Entry_Gates.gif?VersionId=7n5kh9ymu.azYEYDemJkPgiIAfSw44oj" />

Healthcare access remains one of the defining locational advantages of the estate. Sydney Adventist Hospital, known locally as The San, sits directly adjacent and is one of the largest and most respected private hospitals in New South Wales. The hospital precinct incorporates specialist medical services, radiology, physiotherapy, and outpatient care, contributing to growing buyer demand from downsizers and owner-occupiers seeking long-term convenience and peace of mind.

Research commissioned by Capital Corporation found that health and wellbeing considerations are increasingly influencing downsizing decisions, particularly among buyers wanting to remain within familiar neighbourhoods while accessing medical infrastructure more easily.

Education has also historically underpinned demand across Wahroonga and the broader Upper North Shore. The estate sits close to several of Sydney’s leading private and independent schools, including Knox Grammar, Abbotsleigh, Barker College, Pymble Ladies’ College, Ravenswood School for Girls, and Loreto Normanhurst. Co-educational options including Wahroonga Adventist School and Sydney Adventist School further strengthen the area’s appeal to established families looking for long-term schooling pathways within a tightly held catchment.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135247 project_image_fid=262183]

Transport connectivity supports the suburb’s liveability without compromising its quieter residential character. Wahroonga and Turramurra train stations provide direct rail access into the Sydney CBD, while the nearby Pacific Highway and M1 motorway strengthen links across the North Shore and broader metropolitan area. At the same time, the heavily treed streetscape and low-density character continue to distinguish the precinct from more urbanised parts of Sydney.

The Residences at Wahroonga Estate forms the first stage of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/capital-corporation">Capital Corporation</a>’s broader masterplanned vision for the precinct, delivered alongside the Seventh-day Adventist Church.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135247 project_image_fid=364995]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/group-gsa">GroupGSA</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/coco-republic-interior-design">Coco Republic</a>, the development integrates landscaped communal spaces including a pet-friendly Green Spine, resident lounge, BBQ pavilion, and direct bushland access, reinforcing the project’s focus on outdoor connection and community-based living.

Now under construction by Gold Star iCIRT-rated builder <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/dasco-australia">DASCO</a>, The Residences at Wahroonga Estate will deliver a collection of one, two, and three-bedroom apartments priced from $990,000, with completion anticipated in 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135247]

Capital Corporation to cater to Upper North Shore downsizers by creating walkable community at The Residences at Wahroonga Estate

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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Media coverage of the Westpac decision to lift mortgage rates 0.2 percentage points has been typically sub-standard.
Many articles, inspired by economists suffering from limelight deficit syndrome, have portrayed this as a death knell for property markets.
As someone who has studied the relationship between interest rates and price movements, I can tell you that this is a not a reasonable conclusion.
Economists and journalists, with their simplistic thought processes, tend to believe that low interest rates = property boom, and rising interest rates = property decline. This contradicts both common sense and historical precedent.
Falling interest rates usually coincide with subdued property markets. The RBA cuts interest rates when the economy is struggling, consumer confidence is low and unemployment is rising – i.e. conditions which are least likely to produce property booms.
This is why most of Australia does not have booming property markets. Only Sydney, which is the centre of the one economy (NSW) that is really pumping, has had a boom. Melbourne, the capital of a state with an okay economy, has displayed some buoyancy but nothing approaching the dizzy heights of Sydney. 
Most of the state and territories have struggling economies and their capital city property markets – Perth, Hobart, Canberra, Darwin, Adelaide – have been stuck in neutral or reverse. Years of very low interest rates have been utterly irrelevant in all of these places.
Regional Australia is dotted with markets that have dropped sharply and others that have gone nowhere in terms of price movements. The exceptions are relatively few and most of them are located amid that one strong state economy, New South Wales. 
The bottom line is that interest rates usually are irrelevant. Economists appear to think they’re the only thing that matters and the sole determinant of outcomes in real estate. In truth, they have little or no bearing. 
Other factors have much greater influence. Sydney had its boom because a change of State Government in 2011 returned sanity and competence to governance, the economy started pumping again and infrastructure spending was revitalised. Money started circulating, businesses started spending, consumers started feeling good about things and the property market, which had been largely dormant for a decade, burst to life.
It would have happened whether the official interest rate was 2%, 4% or 6%.
Conversely, interest rates are most likely to be rising when the national economy is strong, with lots of jobs being created, confidence high and businesses spending big. These are the conditions that drive property booms – and the RBA will lift interest rates to dampen things down. 
Often it requires a long period of multiple rises to quell the buoyancy. Therefore, genuine national property booms – unlike what we have at the moment - usually coincide with periods of high or rising rates.
In the late 1980s, interest rates were lifted repeatedly without dampening the boom - and mortgage rates went as high as 17% before the bull run ended.
To suggest that a 0.2 percentage point rise by one lender will kill the (Sydney) boom shows a low level of understanding.
The reality is that the one major boom in the nation, Sydney’s, has been slowly deflating since the start of the year. APRA didn’t need to take action because the market was taking care of the situation without any interference from self-important bureaucrats.
And Westpac’s tiny nudge to interest rates will have no bearing on the situation.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Interest rates usually are irrelevant: Terry Ryder

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Despite a falling auction clearance rate, the volume of auctions being held across the combined capital cities and in particular, Melbourne, is rising.
Last week, the final auction clearance rate fell to 67.4% across 2,858 capital city auctions, while this week CoreLogic RP Data is expecting there to be just over 3,000 auctions held across the combined capital cities.
Melbourne will be the busiest city by far this week, with 1,710 auctions expected, indicating the busiest week for the city this year, but the auction market won’t be as busy as it was at the same time last year, when over the week 1,837 Melbourne homes were taken under the hammer. Last week, Melbourne was the strongest performing capital city market with both the highest volume of auctions (1,398) and the highest clearance rate (72.7%).
Notably, Melbourne’s auction performance last week was much stronger than Sydney, with the city recording its lowest clearance rate since early 2013 at 63.7%, representing a substantial fall from the previous week (69.6%). This week, Sydney is expecting 996 auctions to be held, relatively similar to last year when 961 Sydney homes were auctioned.
Auction markets will be busier in Brisbane (213), Adelaide (109) and Perth (35) this week compared to last week when 145, 93 and 16 auctions were held respectively. Canberra’s auction market activity will slow down this week, with 60 auctions expected, compared to 86 the previous week.
This week, the busiest individual suburbs for auctions are all in Victoria:
– Glen Waverley (30 auctions)
– Reservoir (23 auctions)
– Mount Waverley (22 auctions)
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Clearance rate falling, auction activity rising: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

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<div>Sydney house prices rose by a more sedate +3.2% in the September quarter to be up by +21.7% over the year to a median price of $1,032,422 reported Domain.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This followed on from a much faster +8.4% boom in Sydney house prices over the June quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney's median unit price increased by a little over $10,000 to $673,182 over the September quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile, Brisbane's median house price increased from $493,227 to $497,143 over the three months to September.</div>
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Sydney boom slows in Q3: Pete Wargent

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It didn’t take long for some property commentators to start declaring that the Sydney market was crashing when last week clearance rates came in at 65.1%.
The fools have been released from the asylum when you closely scrutinise this data where Sydney consists of approximately 700 suburbs, so are they all crashing? I looked up Mosman’s clearance rate for last week and it came in at a respectable 87.5% which is hardly crashing as some would have you believe. Don’t get me wrong it is clear that the Sydney real estate market is correcting rather than crashing – this is not a bad thing either.
The problem for some is that intellectually they can’t differentiate between the strong investment market over the owner occupier market, with the investment market cooling at a much more rapid pace due to lending restrictions and consumer sentiment adjustments – which are long overdue.
Many consumers who are chasing investment properties should be quite concerned about what’s around the corner and I’m not referring to banks increasing their respective lending rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) can stand aside for the moment because on Melbourne Cup day should it decide to lower the cash rate the major banks won’t be following suit with Westpac, CBA, NAB and ANZ hiking their rates just in the last week. As soon as one moves inevitably the others will all follow although it would be highly unlikely that Westpac will be the next to increase rates.
All eyes should now be on the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) who have now taken over the responsibility of being Australia’s property watchdog. In 39 days the amnesty period for illegal property acquisitions expires and then we will start to see how many have deliberately broken the laws by purchasing Australian real estate – my tip is this will be huge where we can expect 2016 to be the year of the Divestment Order.
This may surprise you that there is a much larger property investigation that will have a significant impact on Australia’s property industry. That being Student Visa Holders who are allowed to purchase a property whilst completing their tertiary studies on the proviso that when they have completed their degrees the subject property must then be sold. The only problem is that Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) who are entrusted to monitor such acquisitions have never actually followed through so we now have no idea how many thousands of properties this includes.
To make matters worse on 18 December 2008, the Rudd Government changed the policy where Student Visa Holder residents in Australia are no longer subject to a $300,000 limit on the value of an established dwelling as their residence. This then saw some students acquiring multi – million dollar residences. Also temporary residents were not required to notify FIRB of any intended acquisitions for established dwellings that were to be their principal place of residence.
Again we are talking about thousands and thousands of transactions where many will now end up with Divestment Orders.
The RBA this week declared in its biannual Financial Stability Review that “Recent investigations by regulators have revealed that standards were somewhat weaker than had originally been thought.” In that case any significant increase in property volumes onto the market would see prices coming down as these are established properties, so unlike off–the–plan properties where 100% can be sold offshore to non-Australian residents.
We are now seeing the housing price growth at its slowest pace since 2012 – which explains why the ATO have a duty of care when they start issuing Divestment Orders. We can also expect to see many households fixing interest rates on their respective mortgages.
A positive sign for those renting, when last Friday the Australian Bureau of Statistics finally got around to updating Australia’s housing occupancy data (the last release was in 2013), the proportion of those renting has edged up to 31.4% with 63.4% of Australians renting being under 35. To further identify just how big the investment market for real estate in Australia is, 1.5 million households now own investment properties on top of their principal place of residence.
Whilst the finger is clearly pointed at negative gearing (I will address that next week) when it was introduced in the late 1990’s, approximately 40% of houses were owned outright with only 28% renting.
The issues are clear in that we have problems with policy making, and that requires urgent attention although this has not been helped with actual mortgage interest rates falling from 7.1% to 4.7% over the past five years.
Property is all about supply vs demand – supply is what we need to be paying closer attention to, so watch the ATO with great interest. Who would have ever thought the ATO would play a central position with Australia’s property markets.
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 104 • Number of houses on the market last week – 61
• Number of houses on the market this week – 64
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 65
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 59
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 60
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 19
• Number of houses on the market last week – 9
• Number of houses on the market this week – 10
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 32
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 23
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 22
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 7
• Number of houses on the market last week – 13
•Number of houses on the market this week – 10
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 51
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 32
*Number of apartments on the market this week – 33
 
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
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Concerns about upcoming Divestment Orders: Robert Simeon

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There are mounting signs that Australia’s housing market may be moving through the peak of the cycle, however it is important to remember that strong housing market conditions have been evident in Sydney and Melbourne while every other capital city has shown relatively sedate conditions.
CoreLogic’s September indices results, released two weeks ago, showed that Sydney dwellings values remained flat over the month and other data flows are also pointing to a moderation in growth conditions across Australia’s largest city and the broader housing market.
The factors that hinting at a market peak (and outlined in further detail below) include:
<ul>
<li>Auction results have been consistently moderating, especially in Sydney where clearance rates have been sub 70% consistently over the past five weeks</li>
<li>Listing numbers are rising, which is normal during the Spring season, but a higher than normal number of homes are being added to the market in Sydney which is contributing to higher stock levels than a year ago and rising months of supply.</li>
<li>Investment demand is moderating due to both tougher lending from the banks as well as market disincentives such as low yields, affordability constraints and a mature growth cycle.</li>
<li>Mortgage related activity has fallen across CoreLogic platforms. Although activity remains higher than a year ago, mortgage related events are down from heights seen over the first half of 2015 and aren’t seeing their normal spring bounce.</li>
<li>Rents are hardly moving which has pushed rental yields to historic lows in Sydney and Melbourne. Paying a landlord is likely becoming more affordable than paying a mortgage despite the low interest rate setting.</li>
<li>The cost of debt is rising outside of any upwards movement in the cash rate. Higher debt servicing costs can only act as a disincentive.</li>
<li>Supply levels are set to rise further as the pipeline of approvals moves through the commencement phase and onto completed housing product. Inner city apartment markets are most exposed to higher supply.</li>
</ul>
While conditions may be starting to slowdown, particularly in Sydney, the coming months will provide further clarity about housing market conditions. Picking the turning point in the housing market is easy in retrospect, but as the market evolves it can be hard to separate short term movements from the beginnings of a longer term trend.   The coming months of data flows through to the end of the year will provide a great deal more perspective.”
Mature growth cycle The current growth cycle broadly commenced in June 2012, with dwelling values shifting almost 32% higher since this time across the combined capital cities. The rate of capital gains has been led by Sydney where values are almost 50% higher, and Melbourne where dwelling values have shifted 35% higher over the cycle to date. Brisbane has seen the third highest rate of value growth over the period at a comparatively modest 14.5% showing the multi-tiered nature of the capital city housing market at present.
<a href="/images/2015/10/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-26%20at%2011.04.03%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-26%20at%2011.04.03%20AM.png" alt="" width="790" height="598">
Dwelling values do fall. Capital city dwelling values retreated by 7.2% over the previous down phase which lasted from October 2010 through to the end of May 2012, and previously during the GFC period of 2008 capital city dwelling values shifted 6.1% lower.
<a href="/images/2015/10/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-26%20at%2011.05.26%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-26%20at%2011.05.26%20AM.png" alt="" width="836" height="614">
 
Auction results are moderating but remain historically high The auction market peaked over the last week of April this year with a combined capital city clearance rate of 82%. Since that time, clearance rates have been consistently falling, with weekly clearance rates holding below the 70% mark over the past five weeks.
Sydney has shown a similar trend, with clearance rates peaking at 90% over the last week of April. Sydney’s clearance rate was recorded at 63% last week, the lowest clearance since March 2013. The lower clearance rate comes on substantially higher volumes compared with a year ago. The Spring season to date has seen 7,193 auctions held across Sydney which is 1,609 (29%) higher than over the same period a year ago.
The slump in clearance rates hasn’t been as sharp in Melbourne where the weekly clearance peaked at 87% over the last week of April and has consistently reduced to the current level of around 73%. Melbourne clearance rates haven’t slipped below 70% since February this year. Auction volumes across Melbourne are at roughly the same level as a year ago, with 7,394 auctions held so far this Spring (7,381 at the same period a year ago).
Outside of Sydney and Melbourne, auction sales are only a small proportion of all sales. Over the year to date, Sydney and Melbourne account for 84% of all auctions held across the capital cities.
<a href="/images/2015/10/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-26%20at%2011.07.10%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-26%20at%2011.07.10%20AM.png" alt="" width="880" height="1011">
Listing numbers are rising While it’s normal for listing numbers to ramp up during the Spring season, the number of new listings being added to the Sydney housing market is now 4.4% higher than last year and total listing are nearly 6% higher than a year ago suggesting new advertised supply isn’t being absorbed as fast as a year ago. The same trend of higher listing numbers has been evident for some time in the weakest housing markets of Darwin and Perth where total listing are roughly 12% higher compared with a year ago.
<a href="/images/2015/10/26/8-580x378.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/26/8-580x378.jpg" alt="">
 
Listing numbers haven’t seen the same escalation in Melbourne where the housing market doesn’t appear to be slowing at the same pace as the Sydney market. Listing numbers remain lower than a year ago in Brisbane, Adelaide and Hobart as well, where value growth has been much more moderate compared with Sydney and Melbourne.
With listing numbers rising in some markets, ‘months of supply’ is also rising
‘Months of supply’ provides an indication about how long it would take, based on the current rate of sale, the market to absorb all the homes currently being advertised for sale. Sydney is still showing the months of supply reading at 2.4 months, however, we have seen the first rise in this reading since 2012. At the same time, months of supply is holding firm in Melbourne but reducing in Brisbane, Adelaide and Hobart. Where housing market conditions are weaker (Perth, Darwin, Canberra) the monthly of supply readings are rising, providing better buying conditions for prospective purchasers.
<a href="/images/2015/10/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-26%20at%2011.12.39%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-26%20at%2011.12.39%20AM.png" alt="">
Investment demand appears to be moderating The value of investment related housing finance commitments has reduced over three of the past four months and owner occupiers have once again overtaken investors as being the most active segment of the housing market based on the value of new loans being committed to.
 The slowdown in investment related mortgage activity has been evident across every state, but has been most felt in New South Wales, where investors have reduced from comprising nearly 63% of the market in May this year to a much lower (but still high from a historical perspective) 54.9% in August. It’s likely investment activity has reduced further over recent months due to the premium being placed on investment mortgage rates and a requirement for larger deposits, as well as natural disincentives such as record low rental yields and affordability and affordability constraints.
<a href="/images/2015/10/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-26%20at%2011.14.16%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-26%20at%2011.14.16%20AM.png" alt="">
 
Mortgage related activity has eased from historically high levels across CoreLogic mortgage platforms
CoreLogic facilitates more than 90% of all mortgage related valuation instructions, which provides one of the timeliest indicators of mortgage activity available. While mortgage activity is approximately 4% higher than at the same time last year, activity has moderated from the highs recorded earlier in the year.
<a href="/images/2015/10/26/15-580x301.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/26/15-580x301.jpg" alt="">
Weekly rents are hardly moving and gross rental yields have pushed to record lows Across the combined capital cities, weekly rents have increased by only half a percent over the past twelve months. At a time when capital city dwelling values have increased by 11.0%, the sluggish pace of rental movements has pushed rental yields to the lowest level on record.
Gross rental yields are the lowest in Melbourne and Sydney at just 3.0% and 3.3% respectively (lower for detached houses and slightly higher for apartments) and also sit at record low levels. Accounting for holding costs such as vacancy, property management fees, maintenance etc, the net rental yield in these cities likely to be around the low to mid two percent mark.
The low yield scenario is likely to act as another disincentive for investors at a time when the growth cycle has been running for almost three and half years. for investors at a time when the growth cycle has been running for almost three and half years.
<a href="/images/2015/10/26/16-580x152.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/26/16-580x152.jpg" alt="">
 
Costs of debt are rising out of cycle with the cash rate
In July this year Australia’s largest banks placed a premium on investment related mortgage rates of between 27 and 29 basis points. More recently, Westpac has announced additional premiums on mortgage rates for both owner occupier and investment loans outside of any movement in the cash rate.
<a href="/images/2015/10/26/17-580x227.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/26/17-580x227.jpg" alt="">
 
Supply levels are set to increase further
Dwelling approvals appear to have peaked earlier this year after an unprecedented boom in the number of dwellings approved for construction. As the pipeline of approvals migrates to project commencements and ultimately completions, we can expect the supply of new housing, particularly apartments, to provide a further easing in price upwards price pressures.
The majority of new supply set to hit the market will be in Melbourne and Sydney where population growth has remained the strongest, however Brisbane and Perth have also seen a substantial influx of new housing approvals. In last week’s Financial Stability Review the Reserve Bank warned of the risk of a potential housing over-supply in inner city areas of Melbourne and Brisbane due to the large boom in new apartment construction.
<a href="/images/2015/10/26/18-580x202.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/26/18-580x202.jpg" alt="">
Tim Lawless is head of the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team and can be contacted <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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The seven signs that the property market may be peaking: Tim Lawless

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There’s little doubt that the Sydney slowdown is under way.
I note that the boffin who runs APRA is trying to claim credit for a reduction in investor activity, but the wind-down in Sydney sales volumes pre-dated his misguided measures to prevent investors from buying real estate.
In terms of sales activity, Sydney peaked way back in the December Quarter of 2013. Auction frenzy and price growth has continued because sales levels have fallen away only gradually. And history shows that markets take time to adjust to new circumstances. Sales activity can be falling for six months or more before prices start to react.
Transactions in the March Quarter 2015 were down on the December 2014 Quarter and also below the March 2014 Quarter. The June 2015 Quarter has shown a further gradual decline. 
The most telling barometer of the Sydney slowdown is the number of individual growth markets, as revealed by Hotspotting’s quarterly research for the Price Predictor Index. 
The February research found 118 suburbs with rising sales activity across the Sydney metropolitan area. The May survey found 72. The latest research finds only 36 suburbs with a growth trajectory.
The dominant market type in Sydney now is what we call “plateau” markets. These are suburbs where sales activity was previously rising, but now sales levels have tapered off – still at a healthy level, but below the peak activity.
This is an indicator that the market is beginning to loose its heat.
Another indicator that the cycle has almost run its course is that the leading growth markets are on the fringes of the metropolitan area.
The leading precincts, still with growth markets, are the Campbelltown (far south-west) and Penrith (far west) municipalities.
Other areas still hanging in there (lots of plateau markets) include the Bankstown, Blacktown and Parramatta municipalities.
Yet another sign that the boom cycle has moved on is the performance of regional New South Wales markets. I’ve reported previously that Sydney’s momentum has rippled out into regional centres – firstly those close to Sydney, like Wollongong, Gosford and Newcastle, and more recently those further afield.
The latest survey shows that Regional NSW has considerably more growth markets than Sydney does – almost double the number, in fact. 
Sydney is declining, but doesn’t know it, while the state’s regional cities are increasingly buoyant.
Tuned-in investors will have moved on from Sydney some time ago. The price growth of the near future will be found in places like Port Macquarie, Albury, Goulburn, Coffs Harbour and Tweed Heads.
 
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Sydney is declining, but doesn’t know it: Terry Ryder

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How does a property-valuer come up with distinct values of the same property and all within four weeks?
Background: 
A couple were splitting up amicably and both accepted to explore the opportunity to buying each other out. Each party made loan applications to separate lenders for finance. Both parties agreed to buy the other out at $520,000.
First Valuation - Strike one:
The first attempt at financing the purchase was made and a property-valuer was engaged by lending body to provide a valuation report. The mortgage broker received notice that the valuation report provided to the bank, stated the value of the home was only: $500,000.
Second Valuation - Strike two:
A week later, the second party attempted to obtain finance with a different lender and the lender appointed their panel valuer. The valuer on their panel, so happens to be the same valuer. BINGO!! You guessed it, the valuation came back at $500,000.
Third and Final Valuation - Strike three?
The subject property is placed on the market. The agency suggested a cleanup of the garden and staging of the home. A keen purchaser exchanged contracts at $545,000.
The new purchaser’s lender sent their panel valuer, 4 weeks after the first valuation was obtained, now wait for it: YES, the same valuer appeared on the scene.
This time however, the property valuation report came in at contract price: $545,000.
What happened from the first to the third valuation other than; mowing lawns and a simple make-over?
Leave me your thoughts:
Before you go jumping to conclusions and for the savvy mortgage brokers out there, here is a little more background information;
<ul>
<li>The couple had approximately $180,000 equity in the home.</li>
<li>The new purchaser obtained a 95% LVR on their mortgage. Figures disclosed to the agent at the time of purchase. </li>
<li>The property settled on or about three months ago; time calculated from publishing of this article.</li>
</ul>
Now please: this is your turn to enlighten me with what just happened? I welcome your comments and this with great anticipation. 
EDWIN ALMEIDA is licensee in charge of <a href="https://www.just-think.com.au/" target="_blank">Just Think Real Estate</a>.<a href="https://www.just-thin.com.au/"> </a>
He is also the creator of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/JustThinkProperty" target="_blank">Oz Real Estate.TV</a> and a presenter for <a href="https://propertyinvestingvault.com/" target="_blank">propertyinvestingvault.com</a>.
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How can property valuations be miles apart? Edwin Almeida

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Here's a clue as to why Sydney has been having a property boom that no other capital city has come close to matching. NSW has the nation's No.1 economy and, according to ABS data, has created more jobs in the past six months than the rest of Australia combined. 
That remarkable situation provides the best explanation of the Sydney real estate boom, far more so than the flimsy offering from most economists, who attribute the boom to low interest rates (but can't explain why Brisbane, Perth, Canberra, Adelaide, Darwin, Hobart and most of regional Australia aren't having price booms). 
The Sydney/NSW economy is pumping, boosted by high levels of spending on infrastructure and a return of business confidence thanks to changes in the political scene.
According to the ABS, NSW has added 85,600 jobs since January. All the other states and territories have managed a combined 68,000. 
The NSW economy has been rising steadily ever since the worst government in my lifetime, the 16-year-old NSW Labor Government, was tossed out in a predictable landslide in 2011.
With that change, things that had been long absent from Sydney and NSW began to happen again. Decisions started being made. Infrastructure spending resumed. The economy awoke from its coma and business re-opened. Jobs started to be created, with those latest figures from the ABS providing evidence of a process that has been four years in the making.
According to ANZ research, employment growth in NSW has been led by four industry sectors: health, education, hospitality and professional services.
It’s not a coincidence that the rise of the Sydney property market after 10 dormant years has happened during this resuscitation of the NSW economy.
Low interest rates, the fallback position of economists who haven’t got a clue (i.e. most of them), have little or nothing to do with Sydney’s elevated market.
If it was all about interest rates, Perth prices would be zooming instead of going backwards. A clue to the decline of the Perth market is also found in the ABS employment figures: Western Australia, previously a leading generator of jobs, has created only 8,500 positions in the past six months, one-tenth of that managed by NSW. Since January the WA unemployment rate has risen from 5.5% to 6.3%.
Just three years ago, the NSW ranked joint second last, alongside South Australia, in the CommSec State of the States report. Back in July 2012, it was “WA first and daylight second”, according to one media report. The ACT, the Northern Territory, Queensland and Victoria all ranked above mediocre NSW, which was tied with SA in sixth place, with only Tasmania ranked lower.
Fast forward three years and the latest State of the States report indicates that NSW is now entrenched as the No.1 strongest economy in the land, having taken over the top ranking from WA last year. 
NSW ranks first or second among the states and territories on population growth, retail trade, employment, equipment investment and housing construction.
A growing economy, extensive spending on transport and other infrastructure, the return of confidence in the state government and the local economy, solid population growth, jobs being created – that’s the recipe that cooked up Sydney’s real estate surge. And it would have happened if the RBA hadn’t been cutting interest rates.
 TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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The recipe that cooked up Sydney’s real estate surge: Terry Ryder

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A survey by researcher Michael Matusik has confirmed what many in the real estate industry knew or suspected – that developer claims about sales in their unit projects are often a pack of lies.
He surveyed 10 recently-completed projects with a combined 1,500 apartments in the Brisbane inner-city market and found that sales rates were, in most cases, agonizingly slow - quite a contrast to the claims of “selling fast”, “few remain” and “50% sold within the first month of release”.
He says many claims made by developers and marketers are so outrageously false, they should be investigated and prosecuted by the relevant authorities.
His conclusions: “The sales rates promoted in many new apartment advertisements are optimistic at best. In some case, there’s outright lying, which should be challenged by ASIC and the real estate institute.”
Amen to that. Project proponents who falsely claim to have made high levels of off-the-plan sales often goad gullible investors or home-buyers into hasty action, for fear of missing out. These buyers often end up with dud investments, over-priced and falling in value.
I get frequent emails from investors, usually impressionable young people, who are being pressured by accountants, solicitors or financial advisors into buying off-the-plan apartments in the inner-city suburbs of our major cities. 
They are bombarded with claims of high sales rates, never-to-be-repeated offers and the prospect of windfall capital gains. They’re under heavy pressure and highly stressed, because they’re afraid of making a decision they’ll regret. Many are unaware of the massive commissions their “advisors” will receive if they buy.
It’s the dirty underbelly of the property industry that regulators seem powerless to eradicate. But a clampdown on false claims about sales rates as a way of enticing buyers would be quite easy for ASIC or the Office of Trade Trading to police.
If Matusik can conduct a revealing survey, surely the authorities with their much greater resources can do the same or better.
His survey found that the true sales rate among the surveyed developments was just three apartments per project per month. The results ranged from one to seven sales per month per project, but the average was three sales per month. It took most of the projects 15 months to sell enough units (i.e. over 60% of the project) to start construction.
“The shortest time period to sell out a project was 21 months, while the average time was just over three years,” Matusik said. “Several projects took over four years to sell out.”
Amazing to consider these results, against frequent claims by project proponents of having sold half the units even before the launch of marketing, or having sold out most of the project in the first weekend of marketing. Often an expression of interest is classified as a sale.
Media reports such claims as gospel, when often they’re shameless fabrications. Journalists don’t challenge anything anymore.
Matusik says: “We need some clear rules. For mine, an off-the-plan sales can only be reported as ‘sold’ if the contract is signed, unconditional as to finance and the stipulated deposit has been paid.”
This issue will get worse before it gets better, given the upcoming tsunami of new apartment projects in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane and Perth as our major cities head into an era of over-supply.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can  <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Over supply ahead as tsunami of new apartment projects hit Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane and Perth: Terry Ryder

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I recently spent a bit of time charting the death throes of the resources construction boom. 
As you can see below, although the Northern Territory has been offered a temporary reprieve by the massive $34 billion Ichthys LNG project, engineering construction activity has been hit extremely hard almost everywhere else, particularly so in Western Australia (down by 24 per cent over the past year), Queensland (-38 per cent) and South Australia (-25 per cent). 
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Moreover, despite a year-on-year decline of more than 20 per cent the downturn has miles to run yet before construction activity even gets close to its historical norm. The value of work commenced points to an accelerating decline.
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<div>Moreover, with the Commodity Price Index having continued to weaken, we could easily overshoot to the downside, which terms-of-trade booms in Australia have historically tended to do.</div>
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<div>Given that the construction stage tends to be comfortably the most labour-intensive phase of resources projects, this must inevitably result in sharply declining demand around many regional areas of Australia. Vacancies rising in resources capitals On a related note SQM Research released its latest July 2015 Vacancy Rates and asking rents data yesterday.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Vacancy rates nationally held steady at 2.4 per cent but the figures revealed a significant divergence between the resources capital cities and the rest.</div>
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<div>As you can see in the chart below, moving from left to right vacancy rates remain relatively tight in Hobart (1.2 per cent), Sydney (1.8 per cent) and Adelaide (1.9 per cent). Hobart's vacancy rates have tightened over the past year from 1.5 per cent to 1.2 per cent despite a near total dearth of population growth - if you think carefully about it, you may come to your own conclusions as to why - while Sydney's vacancy rate of 1.8 per cent is unchanged from one year ago. Brisbane city-wide vacancy rate is now recorded as being 2.6 per cent, and in fact in a number of apartment construction hubs vacancy rates are already considerably higher than that. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Shifting across towards the right hand edge of the chart Darwin is now tracking at an elevated 3.5 per cent having spiralled from just 1.4 per cent a year ago. Meanwhile vacancy rates in Perth have blown all the way out from 2.5 per cent in July 2014 to 3.8 per cent.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/08/20/SQM.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/08/20/SQM.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div>
Asking rents follow vacancies Also reported in the SQM media release was a massive 20.5 per cent fall in asking rents for houses in Darwin, as well as 15.2 per cent decline in asking rents for Darwin units. Over the past year asking rents have also declined in Perth for both houses (-7.4 per cent) and units (-6.3 per cent), according to SQM's index. Of course, vacancy rates are expected to rise at this stage in the construction cycle, but it may take Perth and Darwin quite some time to absorb the excess stock.
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<div><a href="/images/2015/08/20/AW1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/08/20/AW1.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div>
Mining towns crushed This capital city market action is of course small fry compared to what is playing out in resources regions. Following on in sympathy from an epic property crash in the Pilbara, the Australian Financial Review reported that investors in the Bowen Basin heartland are being sent broke with dwelling prices continuing to collapse dramatically. Property prices in Moranbah have reportedly crashed by up to 70 per cent over the past three years, while prices in Dysart prices have crashed by closer to 50 per cent over the same period. Instead of linking back to articles which promised untold riches from investing in mining towns, it is worth considering the two golden rules which nearly all of the most successful investors follow religiously: Rule 1 - Don't lose money. Rule 2 - See Rule 1. When it comes to property investment, there is no easy way back from a 50 per cent drawdown, particularly if leverage is used. Remember that the promise of higher returns often comes with correspondingly higher risks. 
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<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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