<p>Buyers considering a residence at boutique Gordon townhouse development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/lume-gordon-43-47-dumaresq-street-gordon-nsw-2072">Lume</a>&nbsp;now have another reason to bring forward their decision.</p>

<p>For a limited time, purchasers of a residence at Lume will receive a BMW iX3 50 electric SUV, valued at more than $120,000, as part of their purchase. The offer is designed to add value for buyers while complementing the lifestyle envisioned for the architecturally designed Upper North Shore development.</p>

<p>Scott Timmins, Development Manager at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/winim">WINIM</a>, said the partnership was created to provide buyers with a compelling reason to act.</p>

<p>"In today's market, buyers need a compelling reason to act now, and the BMW partnership was designed to create that catalyst. We wanted to add genuine value for our future purchasers. Choosing the all-electric BMW iX3 50 also reflects the values behind LUME, forward-thinking design, innovation and a more sustainable way of living. It's a premium incentive that complements the lifestyle our buyers aspire to and rewards those who commit early."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374893]</p>

<p>Delivered by WINIM in partnership with Burtonwood Investment Partners, Lume comprises 14 architecturally designed two, three and four-bedroom townhomes created for families seeking the space of a freestanding house with the ease of modern, low-maintenance living.</p>

<p>The three-storey residences, designed by award-winning architecture practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, have been tailored for families and multi-generational living, featuring private internal lifts, flexible lower-level spaces, generous open-plan living and entertaining areas, media rooms, and landscaped outdoor spaces with custom outdoor kitchens.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Inside, engineered oak flooring, bespoke dining joinery with integrated wine fridges and backlit bars, sculptural porcelain bathrooms, Parisi freestanding baths and Astra Walker tapware create interiors that balance functionality with refined finishes.</p>

<p>Each townhome has been designed to combine generous internal spaces with sustainability initiatives such as EV charging infrastructure, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>'s landscaped communal areas, centred around a restored creek line and native planting, encourage residents to connect with nature and spend more time outdoors.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=269527]</p>

<p>Rothelowman's Gary Tsui said the architecture was conceived to respond carefully to its Upper North Shore setting.</p>

<p>"Our vision was to create elegant, uplifting homes that draw on and positively contribute to the local character through meticulously considered design and an interaction with the surroundings."</p>

<p>The communal landscape has been designed as more than an open space between homes. Arcadia's Ben Newell and Kate Phillips said the adjoining reserve provided an opportunity to create a distinctive natural retreat for residents.</p>

<p>"Just as waterways carve their way through Ku-ring-gai's landscape, a raised boardwalk weaves through the reserve, connecting the homes to this tranquil oasis."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374892]</p>

<p>Located just 300 metres from <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/gordon-nsw-2072">Gordon</a> Village and Gordon railway station, Lume offers convenient access to Sydney's CBD while placing residents close to some of the North Shore's leading schools, including Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College and Knox Grammar. Lane Cove National Park, Gordon Golf Club and a range of cafés and restaurants further reinforce the family-focused lifestyle on offer, with the BMW iX3 50 complementing everything from local trips around Gordon to weekend drives and city commutes.</p>

<p>Construction is underway with completion expected in mid-2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7354]</p>


Joel Robinson

Boutique Gordon townhomes now come with a BMW iX3 50

<p>Two apartments have sold for more than $10 million at EADE Byron Bay, setting some of the highest apartment prices ever achieved in the coastal town and underlining the growing appetite for luxury beachfront apartments in Australia's most popular coastal locations.</p>

<p>The $210 million project by Vitale Property Group has now secured more than $70 million in sales, led by residences that changed hands for $12.75 million and $11.75 million.</p>

<p>The record-breaking transactions reinforce the shift occurring in Byron Bay's premium property market, where affluent downsizers and lifestyle buyers are increasingly opting for high-end apartments over large beachfront homes.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/eade-byron-bay-29-shirley-street-byron-bay-nsw-2481">EADE Byron Bay</a> occupies a rare 6,000 sqm absolute beachfront site on the corner of Shirley and Milton Streets overlooking Main Beach and The Wreck surf break, just 350 metres from Byron Bay's town centre.</p>

<p>The 25-residence development is the first beachfront apartment project approved in Byron Bay in more than a decade and is currently under construction, with completion expected in May 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359521]</p>

<p>The project has attracted a mix of local Byron Shire residents downsizing from larger homes, alongside interstate buyers from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane seeking a permanent coastal lifestyle without compromising on space.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hayball">Hayball</a> and with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/alexander-co">Alexander &amp; Co</a>, EADE comprises&nbsp;10 garden apartments ranging from 284 sqm to 622 sqm, nine with private pools, five full-floor apartments and 10 rooftop residences with private plunge pools, expansive outdoor entertaining areas and uninterrupted ocean views.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359527]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/vitale-property-group">Vitale Property Group</a> Managing Partner Chris Vitale said the project's combination of scale, location and limited future supply was driving buyer demand.</p>

<p>"There isn't another beachfront holding in Byron Bay of this size and position that could be developed again," Vitale said.</p>

<p>"Buyers are responding to the scarcity and the irreplaceability of a site of this calibre and to floorplans they can't find elsewhere in the market.</p>

<p>"We are seeing buyers place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of the location. The sales achieved to date demonstrate that discerning purchasers recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay.</p>

<p>"Many are coming from larger homes in the Byron region, or from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, and are after the space, security and convenience, without the upkeep of a house."</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359523]</p>

<p>The Byron Bay project follows Vitale Property Group's delivery of the Mondrian Hotel and Private Residences at Burleigh Heads, with EADE continuing the developer's focus on luxury coastal developments.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a resort-style swimming pool, gymnasium, sauna, cold plunge pool, concierge services and dedicated workspaces, while the project is targeting an 8-Star Green Star rating.</p>

<p>EADE Byron Bay is being exclusively marketed by Projx Australia in conjunction with WHITEFOX Projects.</p>

<p>WHITEFOX National Projects Director Phillip Rand said demand had been driven predominantly by owner-occupiers.</p>

<p>"We are seeing buyers at EADE place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of this location," Rand says.</p>

<p>"The sales achieved to date demonstrate that purchasers at this level recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay."</p>

<p>Residences at EADE Byron Bay are currently priced between $4.75 million and $15.95 million.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145590]</p>


Vitale breaks Byron Bay records with EADE sales flurry 

<p>When buying an apartment, most people compare the big-ticket items first. Floorplans. Kitchens. Balcony size. Natural light. The view.</p>

<p>But there's one everyday consideration that often doesn't come up until after moving in: how parcels are delivered.</p>

<p>As online shopping has become part of everyday life, parcel deliveries have shifted from an occasional event to a regular occurrence. Australians spent a record $82.6 billion shopping online in 2025, with almost one in every four retail dollars now spent digitally.</p>

<p>For apartment residents, that can present a challenge.</p>

<p>If nobody is home to accept a delivery, parcels may be redirected to a nearby Post Office, left in a building lobby or common area, or require building management to step in. In higher-density buildings, where dozens or even hundreds of residents may receive deliveries each day, parcel management has become an increasingly important part of everyday living.</p>

<p>That can create a range of frustrations. A missed delivery often means making time to collect a parcel elsewhere, while packages left unattended in foyers or mail areas can create clutter and increase the risk of theft. What seems like a minor inconvenience can quickly become a recurring issue for residents who shop online regularly.</p>

<p>It's one of those details that rarely features in a display suite but can have a noticeable impact once residents move in.</p>

<p>As a result, buyers are beginning to look beyond traditional apartment features and consider how a building supports day-to-day convenience, including whether there are secure options for receiving deliveries.</p>

<p>Australia Post's Parcel Lockers provide one solution.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CkF2oKmlACg?si=C50sDaoUUn2nuLmq" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>Rather than having a parcel delivered directly to an apartment, eligible deliveries can be sent to a nominated Parcel Locker. Once the parcel arrives, residents receive a notification through the AusPost app or SMS and can collect it using a QR code or one-time PIN at a time that suits them.</p>

<p>The Parcel Locker network now includes more than 1,500 locations nationwide, with installations at Post Offices, shopping centres, transport hubs and an increasing number of residential developments. By providing a secure collection point, Parcel Lockers help reduce missed deliveries and avoid parcels being left unattended in common areas.</p>

<p>For developers, parcel infrastructure is becoming another way to improve the resident experience. Rather than relying on concierge staff or leaving parcels in communal spaces, secure collection points help streamline deliveries while preserving the presentation and functionality of shared areas.</p>

<p>For buyers, it's a reminder that the best apartment features aren't always the most obvious.</p>

<p>A generous floorplan or quality finishes might help narrow the shortlist, but the conveniences that simplify everyday life, whether that's EV charging, secure bike storage or reliable parcel delivery, often become the features residents appreciate most once they're living there.</p>


The apartment feature many buyers don't think about, until their first missed delivery

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hg-developments">HG Developments</a> is doubling down on Maud Street in Newstead, filing plans for a new apartment tower just a few doors down from its under-construction Aire Newstead development.</p>

<p>Recently submitted to Brisbane City Council, the proposal is for an 18-storey building designed by bureau^proberts, which has drawn heavily on Brisbane's subtropical design principles while referencing the suburb's industrial heritage.</p>

<p>A total of 64 apartments are planned for the amalgamated 1,518 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-21-maud-street-newstead-qld-4006">17–21 Maud Street</a>, a short walk from the Brisbane River and Newstead Riverwalk.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: HG Developments plans 18-storey subtropical apartment tower for Newstead" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a400c7fd-bd15-48f8-a63b-10ede92efe00" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Maud%20st%20bldg.png?VersionId=.0vPmjpbC7CNP7kqGWa6L7rGIwsNExaw" /></p>

<p>"The building is defined by a series of vaulted motifs that reinterpret the arches, colonnades and layered facades evident throughout Newstead's historic built fabric," the Urban Design Report states.</p>

<p>"Combined with recessed glazing and generous balconies, these elements create a layered building envelope that provides shade, weather protection and opportunities for natural ventilation whilst establishing a distinctive architectural identity."</p>

<p>The proposal comprises 64 two, three and four-bedroom apartments across 18 residential levels, positioning it alongside a growing number of taller residential projects transforming Newstead's northern precinct. The tower incorporates extensive subtropical landscaping, with cascading planter boxes, deep planting at street level and a landscaped rooftop recreation area.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: HG Developments plans 18-storey subtropical apartment tower for Newstead" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1d8140f4-8b98-45cd-b1b8-1efe8c8e266b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Maud%20st%20podium.png?VersionId=VAZtbCoD44YCJ57N99fQCAKeSJx7ldZs" /></p>

<p>Bureau Proberts has prioritised passive environmental design throughout the project, with generous balconies, recessed glazing and operable façades helping reduce solar heat gain while maximising natural ventilation. River views become available from the upper levels, while the building has been orientated to capture prevailing breezes from both the Brisbane River and the west.</p>

<p>The architects say landscape is intended to be integral to the building rather than an applied element.</p>

<p>"Vertical greenery, cascading planter boxes and elevated gardens are woven throughout the architecture, softening the built form and strengthening the connection between residents and the subtropical environment."</p>

<p>"Through the integration of landscape, high-quality materials and passive design principles, the development delivers a refined residential address that celebrates Newstead's heritage character while contributing positively to Brisbane's evolving subtropical identity."</p>

<p>Newstead has remained one of Brisbane's most active apartment markets in recent years, with a number of developers continuing to back the inner-city suburb.</p>

<p>HG Developments is currently delivering the 40-apartment Aire Newstead at 25 Maud Street. Fortis recently launched the 65-apartment <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crest-walker-newstead-12-kyabra-street-newstead-qld-4006">Crest &amp; Walker</a> on Kyabra Street, while builder-developer BPG and Don O'Rorke's Consolidated Properties are both expected to launch their respective Newstead projects before the end of the year.</p>


HG Developments doubles down in Newstead with second Maud Street apartment development

<p>Walk past a new apartment development promoting its sustainability credentials and it's easy to picture rooftop gardens, mature trees, landscaped courtyards and residents surrounded by nature.</p>

<p>But in many cases, that's not actually what those sustainability ratings guarantee.</p>

<p>Australia's leading environmental rating tools have played a significant role in improving the energy efficiency and environmental performance of buildings. Yet despite their focus on reducing emissions, many don't require developers to include trees, biodiversity or meaningful green space.</p>

<p>In other words, a building can achieve one of the country's highest sustainability ratings while containing little more than concrete, glass and hard landscaping.</p>

<p>That disconnect has led to the emergence of a new movement across Australia's property industry: nature-based cities.</p>

<p>The concept goes beyond designing buildings that consume less energy. Instead, it encourages developers to treat nature as essential infrastructure, integrating biodiversity, tree canopy, living landscapes and green spaces into projects from the earliest stages of planning.</p>

<p>Research has consistently linked access to nature with better physical and mental health, cooler neighbourhoods, improved biodiversity, stronger climate resilience and more connected communities. As Australia's cities continue to become denser, advocates say those outcomes should be considered just as important as energy efficiency.</p>

<p>Nature Based Cities (NBC) was established in 2022 to help accelerate that shift.</p>

<p>Founded by Hamton Executive Chairman Paul Hameister OAM, the not-for-profit was created after research highlighted a significant gap in Australia's sustainability framework. While existing environmental rating tools rewarded energy performance and emissions reductions, they placed little emphasis on the inclusion of living landscapes.</p>

<p>"We've always wanted to do more, and we know other developers who want to do more, but the ESD rating tools just aren't there," Hameister says.</p>

<p>"In Australia, you can have a five-green-star rated building that's concrete and glass with not a blade of grass.</p>

<p>"The focus is on reducing emissions, which is laudable, but there hasn't been enough attention paid to protecting and re-establishing nature. We need both for the health of the environment and for communities."</p>

<p>Since its launch, NBC has developed independent design guidelines and accreditation frameworks that encourage developers to prioritise ecology, biodiversity, tree canopy, walkability and living landscapes alongside traditional sustainability measures. The organisation first focused on medium and high-density residential developments before recently expanding into precinct-scale communities and masterplanned neighbourhoods.</p>

<p>Jan Talacko, founder of sustainability consultancy Ark Resources and a member of the Nature Based Cities Advisory Council, says the initiative addresses an area that has largely been overlooked by the property industry.</p>

<p>"Throughout my 25 years of working collaboratively with all stakeholders in the property sector, I've always favoured a pragmatic approach to sustainable design which encourages initiatives that not only meet environmental expectations but also improve amenity," Talacko says.</p>

<p>"Whilst we are making steady progress in relation to energy and carbon emissions from buildings, there has been much less emphasis on encouraging biodiversity and tackling the urban heat island effect.</p>

<p>"The Nature Based Cities initiative responds to a gap in the suite of tools currently used by the property development sector, which don't provide sufficient incentive, or recognition, for the integration of landscaping and greenery."</p>

<p>For apartment buyers, the shift is also changing the questions worth asking.</p>

<p>Rather than assuming a sustainable building will naturally include abundant green space, buyers are increasingly being encouraged to look beyond environmental ratings and ask what nature is actually being delivered. How much tree canopy will the development create? Has biodiversity been considered? Are landscaped spaces designed for people as well as appearance?</p>

<p>As Australia's cities continue to grow upwards and outwards, the next generation of sustainability may not simply be measured by lower emissions, but by how successfully developments bring nature back into everyday urban life.</p>


What does it really mean for a building to be 'green'?

<p>Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.</p>

<p>They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.</p>

<p>They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.</p>

<p>Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor</p>

<p>Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" /></p>

<p>Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>​</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.</p>

<p>With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.</p>


Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
<p>We can educate “ignorance” but “stupidity” is another ball game.</p>
<p>Allow me to share with you two scenarios. I will in turn give you the opportunity to ponder which of these is made through ignorance and which one is made through stupidity personified. Like always, pour a cup of coffee and read on.</p>
<p><strong>First scenario: </strong></p>
<p>I attended to a home in the Northern Beaches to provide a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) and bid for the vendor’s custom. Like always, local agents were also called in.</p>
<p>After discussing the process and the method of sale with the vendors, they began to enlighten me about my competition. Names withheld to protect the dummies. </p>
<p>The following is a short transcript of the discussion. </p>
<p>Agent (A): What has the out-of-area agent (Me) told you the home is worth? </p>
<p>Vendor (V): After recommendations made; fixing and cleaning parts of the home, he felt $1,500,00-$1,600,000 is achievable and would advertise along these lines. </p>
<p>V: What do you believe the home is worth?</p>
<p>A: The figures sound right. But we would not advertise it like he suggests.</p>
<p>V: What do you suggest? </p>
<p>A: We would auction the home and ask for offers above $1,350,000.</p>
<p>V: But you told me the house was worth between, $1,500,000-$1,600,000. </p>
<p>A: Yes that’s right, but we don’t want to scare any buyers/enquiry and we can work them up at the auction. </p>
<p><strong>Second scenario: </strong></p>
<p>We have on the market a home for sale, in Eastlakes. As usual, other than normal enquiry, we also receive enquiry from agents that are curious. Agents that work in the area, their patch. </p>
<p>The conversation went along these lines.</p>
<p>Local Agent (LA): Hi, I noticed you have a property in the area, I was told you had sold it? If so, what did it sell for? </p>
<p>Me: Not sold as yet, but presently working with two offers. How can I help you?</p>
<p>LA: Well, I’m a local agent and I have listed a home around the corner, just wanted to see what you sold your home for? </p>
<p>M: Nice, how does it compare with my one?</p>
<p>LA: Very similar but land a bit smaller. Also fully renovated and 4 bedrooms, single level. </p>
<p>Me: If I can ask, what’s your price guide? </p>
<p>LA: We are quoting $1,500,000-$1,800,000.</p>
<p>Me: Wow, that’s a very broad price-guide isn’t it?</p>
<p>LA: Well it’s hard to determine the value of property.</p>
<p>Now, you tell me which one of these agents is ignorant and which one is simply stupid. Or do you think both fall in the same category? Or perhaps the words arrogant and deceptive spring to mind? </p>
<p>One thing is for sure; not all vendors are sympathetic to “under-quoting” and deceitful marketing strategies. Nonetheless, is it up to the vendor to guide the real estate industry into best practice, or up to the professional? </p>
<p>What I can say to most of my realtor friends is; if the kitchen is too hot, then go back to selling used cars and take the nonsense of charging vendors for the sale and marketing fees with you.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em><span>EDWIN ALMEIDA</span> is licensee in charge of <a href="https://www.just-think.com.au/" target="_blank">Just Think Real Estate</a>.<a href="https://www.just-thin.com.au/"><br></a></em></p>
<p><em>He is also the creator of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/JustThinkProperty" target="_blank">Oz Real Estate.TV</a> and a presenter for <a href="https://propertyinvestingvault.com/" target="_blank">propertyinvestingvault.com</a>.</em></p>
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ealmedia-arK4DBYLjS

Ignorance or stupidity? Edwin Almeida

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<p>This week, CoreLogic RP Data is expecting 2,842 auctions across the capital city markets, the highest number of weekly auctions since the week leading up to Easter, when 3,668 capital city auctions were held.</p>
<p>The rise in volumes comes of the back of a lower clearance rate last week, when the final results reported a combined capital city weighted average of 69.9 per cent, the lowest clearance rate since February this year. The lower result was driven by a fall across Sydney, where 70.7 per cent of auctions were successful last week, the lowest clearance rate for the city this year.</p>
<p><strong>Melbourne</strong> and <strong>Sydney</strong> are both expecting a high volume of auctions this week, with 1,206 scheduled in Melbourne and 1,198 in Sydney. In comparison, last week 1,127 Melbourne auctions were held and 1,041 in Sydney.</p>
<p>Last week, <strong>Adelaide’s</strong> clearance rate was 71.4 per cent, the second strongest result for any capital city (following Melbourne at 73.7 per cent) and this week Adelaide auction volumes are set to rise from 99 last week to 130. Similarly, <strong>Brisbane</strong> auction volumes are also on the rise, with 202 auctions this week, compared to 143 last week</p>
<p><strong>Canberra</strong> (58 this week compared to 118 last week) and <strong>Perth</strong> (25 this week compared to 31 last week) are the only two cities where the number of auctions is down week on week, however, both cities current auction activity is higher than it was one year ago.</p>
<p>The Australian suburb with the highest number of auctions this week is Reservoir (Vic) where 23 residential auctions will be held. Following on from this is Mosman (NSW) with 19, Preston (Vic) with 17 and Glen Waverley (Vic) with 16.</p>
<p> </p>
<div class="sharedaddy sd-sharing-enabled"> </div>
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smiller-vwPjRHTkST

Busiest week for auctions since before Easter: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

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<p>What if<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> the property sold at the reserve? How much could this have cost the vendor? Applying the what if? test.</span></p>
<p>If I was to say I was taken-back by the response provided by the auctioneer to a tweet I commented on it would be an understatement. Allow me to share with you the event; so quickly pour yourself a coffee and read on. </p>
<p>Reports were floating, or should I say flying, around on social media over the weekend about the great achievements and results of an onsite auction in Granville. In the main, it was all to do with praise of the selling agent and the creative selling techniques I refer to as “sleight of hand illusion” to sell property, to be candid.</p>
<p>The fundamental questions asked by me on twitter, of the auctioneers tweeting, were simple and basic. Was it a case of “underquoting” or was it “ignorance” by the agency to not know the true value of the land? </p>
<p>I didn’t believe the questions noted above, were out of line. Particularly when I looked at the facts of the auction campaign and paralleled these with results achieved. </p>
<p>One thing is for sure: we can rule out “market forces” for the out of line result, as the tolerance on such a notion would be as I have previously mentioned in other articles, a mere 11% variable from the “price-guide”. A tolerance that is within the prescribed tolerance guides set in the State Agents Act VIC and FT NSW. </p>
<p><span><strong>The facts:</strong></span></p>
<ul>
<li>The property is advertised as having a lot of development potential </li>
<li>Agent seemingly appears to be targeting developers and the neighboring club</li>
<li>Property called on the market at $1,250,000 and sold for $2,781,000 </li>
<li>The achieved sale <strong>percentage above reserve is equal to 123%</strong> approximately</li>
</ul>
<p>Now, somebody, I believe got it totally wrong. On face value it appeared like a classic case of “underquoting” but unless the documents signed by the vendor with the agent, which determines the price-guide are made public, we may never know. </p>
<p>However, in this case I am leaning more to the belief that some agents simply don’t know the value of land. The value of the land with development potential in the current market, is what I am referring to. In the alternative, value of property that is not common to the local agent, such as the initial Millers Point auction fiasco.  Where the property owned by the State Government was gifted away. </p>
<p><span><strong>Reports of auction results</strong></span></p>
<p>As we read through the different stories being published about the sale, there are conflicting accounts and statements that make one wonder if the correct price-guide and reserve was set. You may form your own opinion as you read on.</p>
<p>Working on land-banking and any other form of land acquisition by developers, to determine values may be as simple as: understanding “gross realization” of the project to be built on the land being acquired, determining “construction costs” and with all this, taking into account possible lot yields due to “State Planning” and “Council Planning” changes to zoning. </p>
<p>In basic terms; what will be the “Return On Investment”. No developer likes to work on anything less than to double their money on what the land cost them. </p>
<p>In essence, I am leaning to the belief that the property was misrepresented to be worth anything less than $2.5 million, particularly when we apply the Regulation’s tolerance factors on the face value of the end result. </p>
<p>The question remains, what did the developers attending the auction know that the agent didn’t know, to turn up in droves? Now this is why a professional is used, to know and be in control and not allow the sale to be reliant on, a whim and a prayer or hope of a sunny day. </p>
<p><strong style="line-height: 1.3em;">My first question</strong></p>
<p>But the question will remain however; was the agent aware and well versed in what was going on, as I received the tweet reply from the auctioneer? See below.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span><strong>My second question</strong></span></p>
<p>The second question is: why was this tweet deleted from the auctioneer’s twitter-handle soon after it was sent to me as a response? Don’t you just love conspiracy theories? </p>
<p><span><strong>The What-If Test</strong></span></p>
<p>However, the seriousness of the present situation stands. A problem that is amplified at the auction under scrutiny, highlighted by the results achieved. </p>
<p>Agreeable, and although the results are beneficial to the vendor, this is a problem in the Real Estate Industry and one that demands closer attention. </p>
<p>The concern once again is best explained and highlighted when we apply the <strong><em>What-If Test</em></strong>. </p>
<ul>
<li>What-If, the property was sold for $1,250,000 because it was presented with such a low price-guide in the first place, and</li>
<li>What-If, as the auctioneer replied: the agent got it right. As I understand, in pricing it low to attract the interest it got? </li>
</ul>
<p>Now, <em>What-If</em> you are reliant on an agent or agency that is not aware of: council changes, market forces and true land values? <em>What-If</em>, the result is no more than the price the agent advised you, when they presented you with a market appraisal and set the price guide? </p>
<p>In this instance, we may never know if it was a case of <em>under-quoting</em> or sheer <em>ignorance</em>, unless FT NSW investigates the reasons behind the 123% discrepancy in price-guide to end-sale. Like me, I’m sure you too are left with the thought: under-quoting or the agent got it wrong? </p>
<p><em><span>EDWIN ALMEIDA</span> is licensee in charge of <a href="https://www.just-think.com.au/" target="_blank">Just Think Real Estate</a>.<a href="https://www.just-thin.com.au/"><br></a></em></p>
<p><em>He is also the creator of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/JustThinkProperty" target="_blank">Oz Real Estate.TV</a> and a presenter for <a href="https://propertyinvestingvault.com/" target="_blank">propertyinvestingvault.com</a>.</em></p>
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Underquoting or industry ignorance? Edwin Almeida

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">I fear for investors enticed into buying generic off-the-plan apartments at over-the-top prices.</span></p>
<p>It’s happening in and around the CBDs of all our biggest cities but, increasingly, it’s also happening out in the suburbs. It’s not going to end well for many buyers.</p>
<p>Reports suggest people were clamouring at the weekend to buy units in a proposed development in central Blacktown, paying up to $775,000. </p>
<p>Nothing wrong with the location – I’ve been advocating the Blacktown area for a long time and it’s delivered handsomely with price growth averaging 13% per year over the past three years.</p>
<p>Blacktown is consistently the most popular suburb in Sydney in terms of sales numbers and the Blacktown City LGA is the leading municipality in NSW for population growth. </p>
<p>There were 940 homes sold in the suburb of Blacktown in the 12 months to May, according to Australian Property Monitors, with the median house price rising 19% and the unit median up 13%.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">But paying the prices reportedly achieved in the Blacktown unit project is beyond reckless. </span></p>
<p>The median price for a Blacktown house on land is $545,000 and the mid-range unit fetches $385,000. To pay double the suburb’s median price for an off-the-plan unit flouts basic investment rules and defies common sense.</p>
<p>A couple of years from now, after all the heat and hysteria has evaporated from Sydney markets, I would hate to be the vendor trying to find a buyer for a Blacktown at $800,000-plus, assuming they’re hoping for some capital gain.</p>
<p>Apparently buyers queued up to “snap up” 106 units in Altitude Tower, a planned 24-storey building on the edge of Blacktown’s CBD. Most of them sold at the weekend, reportedly, to a mix of first-time buyers, next-time buyers and investors.</p>
<p>Prices ranged from $395,000 for a one-bedroom unit to $775,000 for a three-bedder on one of the upper levels.</p>
<p>One newspaper report featured a first-home buyer who paid $425,000 for a one-bedroom unit. The median price for all units sold in Blacktown in the past 12 months is $385,000, so where is the value in a one-bedroom unit at $425,000?<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>A couple of weeks ago I received an email from a consumer who was thinking of buying in the project. She was considering a two-bedder for around $600,000. I suggested it made no sense to buy a small unit at a price well above the suburb median for a three-bedroom house on land. A view over Blacktown does not justify the price distortion. </p>
<p>It’s a common phenomenon – new developer product marketed off-the-plan at prices that bear no relationship to established pricing levels in the location. It’s simply bad investing.</p>
<p><span>I was presented with a Melbourne example recently: </span>a townhouse project in South Morang with two-bedroom townhouses for $443,000, when you could buy the typical house on land for less than that. When the suburb’s unit median price is $310,000, a small townhouse for $443,000 is over the top. </p>
<p>I urge all investors considering purchases like this to ask themselves this question: is this the best buy I can find in Australia at this moment? </p>
<p>When buyers are considering off-the-plan developer product at inflated prices, the answer almost certainly is NO. </p>
<p><em>TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a> </em></p>
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Paying some top off the plan prices is just reckless: Terry Ryder

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<div><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">There's a lot of drivel written about the supply response in Sydney causing a serious property market correction.</span></div>
<div> </div>
<div>It really depends on what property type and locations you're talking about.<br><br>
</div>
<div>Sure, I don't doubt that some of those buying new apartments off the plan in parts of the inner south will see prices fall.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That's more or less certain to happen when the downturn phase of the cycle ticks around. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are some other areas where the market will be flooded by new apartments too, such as around parts of North Sydney.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's nothing new or surprising about this.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But as an owner of property in a suburb like Pyrmont - where the supply of new sites has been totally depleted - it's hard to get too excited by the babble in the media.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Prices in these parts will only be materially impacted by a lack of capacity to pay, which means very high interest rates (nah) or high unemployment (the unemployment rate in Pyrmont-Ultimo has increased from 2.8% to 2.9% over the past year).<br><br>A fair proportion of units are investor owned, of course, but in the current low interest rate environment cash flows are strong, while vacancy rates remain very low.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Capped supply</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>To be quite blunt, it has long been obvious that property prices in Pyrmont would soar. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the population of Greater Sydney increasing by around 84,200 or so persons per annum - give or take - the demand side of the equation more or less takes care of itself in such a prime location suburb. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As for new supply...well, there isn't any. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There is none, because there is nowhere left to build.</div>
<div>
<br>Actually, strictly speaking that's not quite true.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>A <a href="/news">DA was lodged</a> to develop a few dozen apartments at 97 Pyrmont Bridge Road back in May 2013.</div>
<div>
<br>And down the road in the adjacent suburb of Ultimo there was a development application lodged in 2014 to build 50 apartments on Harris Street.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>So, there might be a very slight trickle of new supply in the area.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>But even though Harris Street is a pretty busy thoroughfare, land prices in these parts have been exploding higher over recent years, and ultimately the price of property is a derivative of the land that sits thereunder.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The 485 Harris development fetched some $63 million, equating to a price per apartment of more than $1.25 million (in Ultimo!..on Harris Street!).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>So, no, I can't say I worry too much about the supply of apartments causing a price correction in Pyrmont.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Now the South Dowling precinct on the other hand...the latest inner apartments report from BIS Shrapnel sums it up rather nicely.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/06/BIS.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/06/BIS.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Demand for apartments in Sydney from overseas investors in particular shows "little sign of abating", but there is plenty of supply due to come online in suburbs such as Zetland, Waterloo, Rosebery, Alexandria...and for that matter Mascot, Green Square et al.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Apartment completions</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Inner Sydney apartment should average around 3,100 per annum over the next few years to 2018 per BIS Shrapnel.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/06/BIS4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/06/BIS4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div>
<div>But the new supply of apartments in Sydney will be very much skewed towards the inner south and the old urban wastelands around Sydney airport.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>49% of the new inner Sydney apartments will be in the South Dowling precinct, as compared to just 1% in Pyrmont.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/06/BIS2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/06/BIS2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div><span>Or, to put that graphically:</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/06/BIS3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/08/06/BIS3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Much of property investment is about common sense. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Invest in the areas where people really want to live but where there is nowhere left to build new supply. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unfortunately too many people do precisely the opposite by investing in areas where people don't really want to live and where there are stacks of sites on which to build.</div>
<div>
<br>Same applies in Brisbane by the way!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Check out the full BIS Shrapnel report <a href="https://www.theurbandeveloper.com/wp-content/uploads/Inner-Sydney-Apartment-Market-Brief-July-2015.pdf" target="_blank">here</a>. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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A lot of drivel written about Sydney's supply response: Pete Wargent

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<p>The fundamental cynicism of major banks has been on display in the past week, with lenders exploiting APRA’s anti-investor measures to boost their profits.</p>
<p>Most major lenders have lifted interest rates for investors and then tried to represent the cash grab as a “we had no choice” situation caused by the regulators.</p>
<p>There is no justification for the interest rate hike. Lenders have already tightened their lending criteria in a number of ways designed to eliminate many fringe dwellers from the possibility of borrowing to buy investment properties.</p>
<p>The interest rate hike is clearly not motivated by a desire to further restrict investor activity. It’s simply a profit-boosting play which can be explained away, conveniently but dishonestly, as a consequence of APRA moves.</p>
<p>How do we know?  Because the big banks and other lenders have lifted interest rates on existing investor loans, not just on new ones.</p>
<p>Increasing interest rates on existing loans does nothing to reduce investor borrowing to buy real estate. All it does is boost bank profits. </p>
<p>If they were fair dinkum in their claims that they’re acting “as part of our commitment in meeting APRA’s benchmark” (as Westpac tried to claim), they would lift rates on new loans only.</p>
<p><span>The Bank of Queensland, which lifted its standard variable rate for investor loans 29 basis points, has a master of weasel words on staff called Matt Baxby who came up with this classic to justify the unjustifiable this week: “</span>We are adopting a prudent position that is aligned with the market and balances our own growth objectives with the risks associated with investor lending in general and the overall growth of investor lending in the market as a whole.”</p>
<p>If you can make sense of that statement, please write and let me know. I think a reasonable translation is: “We’re shafting a significant proportion of our existing customers but we’re hoping you won’t notice.”</p>
<p>Beyond that, the APRA measures and lenders’ response to them are an extraordinary case of overkill by bureaucrats who clearly don’t have a grip on market reality. </p>
<p>The faceless APRA boffins who make their pronouncements never stand up to be identified or face any scrutiny of their actions. If we had the opportunity to question them, whoever they are, I’m quite certain we would discover their understanding of real estate markets is wafer thin.</p>
<p>Essentially, Sydney is having a boom and all of Australia is being punished for it.</p>
<p>Taking punitive measures that apply nationally in response to an issue in Sydney is tantamount to amputating a leg to cure a sprained ankle.</p>
<p><span>I note </span>that the Property Investment Professionals of Australia (PIPA) has questioned the decision by lenders to increase interest rates for both new and established property investors, suggesting a different approach should’ve been taken to ensure a sustainable property market.</p>
<p>PIPA chair Ben Kingsley said APRA’s pressure tactics to force individual lenders to lock out investors have raised both concerns and question marks for the industry.</p>
<p>“Increasing borrowing costs for investors who bought into the market some time ago seems unfair and detracts from what should be the common goal of creating a balanced property market,” he said.</p>
<p>PIPA suggested that more targeted measures to slow new investor lending in certain areas, such as decreasing and restricting borrowing power for new investors in locations where the market is particularly heated, would have been a better approach.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Couldn’t agree more.</span></p>
<p><em>TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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Fundamental cynicism of major banks on display: Terry Ryder

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<p>The Preston house on the first season of Channel Seven’s renovation program House Rules has been listed for August 29 auction.</p>
<p>It is the home of the contestant brothers, Nick and Chris Stavropoulos.</p>
<p>John Petsinis from Hocking Stuart has the three bedroom, two bathroom weatherboard house.</p>
<div>
<div id="property-upper-display">
<div id="pane-tab">
<div id="displayphotos" data-photocount="15" data-floorplancount="1" data-iswa="0">
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<div id="link-photo"><img src="https://images.realestateview.com.au/pics/376/19-Jackman-Street-Preston-VIC-3072-Real-Estate-photo-1-large-9273376.jpg" alt="19 Jackman Street Preston VIC 3072 Real Estate Photo 1" title="19 Jackman Street Preston VIC 3072 House - Photo 1"></div>
<div> </div>
<div id="soldbanner">The property at 19 Jackman Street, Preston, last traded at $555,000 in mid-2012.</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p>One of its new features is the stacked-stone fireplace.</p>
<p>Jackman Street's most recent sale was $895,000 in July this year for another three bedroom 1930s cottage that last sold at $446,000 in 2008.</p>
<p>Nick and Chris, the Channel 7 Melbourne House Rules brothers handed over the keys to fellow renovation contestants of their Californian bungalow in Preston in 2013.</p>
<p>It came with a mortgage of $524,000 which would have beeen wiped off by Channel 7 if they had won the renovation competition series hosted by Johanna Griggs.</p>
<p><img class="img-responsive" src="/images/stories/flexicontent/l_houserulesmay30breakout.jpg" alt="Preston House Rules renovation with $524,000 mortgage after $555,000 brotherly purchase"></p>
<p>The 1930s bungalow went to July 2012 Ray White auction without success, subsequently listed at $580,000.</p>
<p>The brothers paid $555,000 in August 2012 for the 1930s bungalow on its 475 square metre block.</p>
<p>"A lot of our money went into our deposit," <a href="/news/preston-house-rules-renovation-with-524-000-mortgage-after-555-000-brotherly-purchase">the Stavropoulos brothers told the House Rules viewers</a>. </p>
<p>There was a subsequent $49,000 development application with Darebin Council.</p>
<p>The brothers, who also appeared on Channel 9’s Reno Rumble, have made a few minor alterations since the show, including extending the outdoor area.</p>
<p>No price guidance is being given.</p>
<p>The median price of houses in Preston has jumped 8.8 per cent over the past 12 months to $700,000, <a href="/news">according to CoreLogic RP Data</a>, having been at around $575,000 when the house was bought in mid-2012.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><span style="font-size: 12.1599998474121px; line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Preston House Rules house hits the Melbourne auction market

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<p class="Body">Sydney home owners can feel confident that their property values will hold up amid the gradual wind-down of the price boom.</p>
<p class="Body">There are two reasons. One is that economists are predicting values will fall. Given their track record of getting it wrong on real estate, we can be fairly sure values won’t decline.</p>
<p class="Body">The other reason is the historic precedent. Sydney has had big price booms before and when the bull run ended, there was no decline in values. Prices simply stopped growing.</p>
<p class="Body">I fully agree with the growing list of pundits calling the end to Sydney’s boom. I’ve been writing about it for the past 5-6 months.</p>
<p>On 21 May I wrote in this column: “It was inevitable that Sydney would run out of puff eventually and the most likely time for it to happen was in the third year of price growth – which means some time this year. It’s rare for major markets to sustain a boom for any longer than that.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>“I’ve just finished the research for the latest edition of The Price Predictor Index, examining market activity in suburbs and towns across the nation, and it indicates Sydney has begun a gradual fade.”</p>
<p class="Body">That view was subsequently confirmed by sales figures for the June Quarter, which continued the pattern seen in the March Quarter figures. It’s clear now that, in terms of sales activity, Sydney peaked in the December Quarter last year and has been on a gradual fade ever since.</p>
<p class="Body">But does this mean prices will collapse? Not if 2004 is any guide.</p>
<p class="Body">The preceding 2-3 years represent the last time Australia had a genuine national property boom. In 2002, six of the eight capital cities recorded double-digit growth in median house prices, including three (Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide) where prices grew more than 20%. The national average rise was 18%, double the average rise in the past 12 months.</p>
<p class="Body">The following year was even more prolific. In 2003, all eight capital cities recorded growth of at least 13%. Five of capital cities grew more than 20% and the city average that year was a 19% rise.</p>
<p class="Body">The past 12 months, in comparison to those stellar years, have been rather tame, with only Sydney recording double-digit growth (although some research sources have Melbourne nudging above 10%). Media hysteria suggesting we have been in the midst of an unprecedented national boom lately is quite ludicrous when we consider the 2002-2003 scenario.</p>
<p class="Body"> <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The bottom line, however, is this: by 2004 the boom had run out of steam. Economists, journalists and other pontificators were routinely predicting a collapse in prices. But it didn’t happen. The growth subsided but there was no price decline.</span></p>
<p class="Body">Earlier this year I conducted a research exercise for a client, examining media coverage of real estate since the beginning of the 21<sup>st</sup> Century and comparing it to actual outcomes.</p>
<p class="Body">This revealed that reports of bubbles, unsustainably high property values and inevitable price collapse have occurred constantly in Australian media over the past 15 years.</p>
<p class="Body">Every economist complaining that property prices should fall because they don’t comply with their theory about where prices should be has been given airplay.</p>
<p class="Body">Every overseas spruiker seeking to drum up attention for a book launch or a seminar tour has gained massive publicity by forecasting that our property values were about to decline 40%, 50% or 60%. One was silly enough to predict a 90% drop in land values and media was silly enough to publish it.</p>
<p class="Body">None of them was right. Despite that relentless production line of doomsday headlines stretching across 15 years, there has been no Armageddon in Australian real estate.</p>
<p class="Body">So, now the chattering economists are at it again. No matter how many times they get it wrong on real estate, they will continue to step up for another bout of false profiteering.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">The boffins at Macquarie Bank have rolled out some very specific forecasts about something they call “Australian property prices”. They’re going to start falling in March next year. And the decline won’t be 5% or 6% or somewhere in the band from 5-10%, it will be exactly and precisely 7.5%.</p>
<p class="Body">Will they be proven accurate? Not a chance.</p>
<p class="Body"><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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The end is nigh for Sydney's property boom: Terry Ryder

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<p>The moderation in the rate of growth across our combined capital cities index in September is likely to be a positive development for Australian regulators such as the Reserve Bank and APRA who have been highlighting concerns about the strong rate of value growth in Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p>Of course it is only one month and it will be interesting to see whether the slowing trend will persist, particularly as we head into the busy spring selling season. </p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/16/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-16%20at%208.51.33%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/16/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-16%20at%208.51.33%20PM.png" alt="" width="436" height="370" style="line-height: 1.3em;"></p>
<p>The annual expansion in investor-related housing credit has continued at a pace that is higher than APRA’s mandated 10% growth per annum however, July figures from the Reserve Bank show credit for investment housing has increased by 10.8% over the year, down from growth of 11.1% the previous month.</p>
<p>Furthermore, in June investor housing credit rose by 0.6% which was its slowest monthly increase since October 2013. With many banks now placing a premium on investment mortgage interest rates and also increasing serviceability limits on all mortgages we may be starting to see the first evidence of a cooling in investment housing demand.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/16/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-16%20at%208.58.44%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/16/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-16%20at%208.58.44%20PM.png" alt="" width="414" height="161"></p>
<p>The cumulative effect of tighter lending conditions, more expensive mortgage rates for investors and lower yields, as well as natural affordability constraints and higher levels of new housing supply, is likely to dampen some of the exuberance we have seen across the Sydney and Melbourne housing market. Listing numbers are already showing their seasonal spring climb which will provide a timely test of the housing markets strength through spring.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/16/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-16%20at%209.13.16%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/16/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-16%20at%209.13.16%20PM.png" alt="" width="555" height="528"></p>
<p>Furthermore auction clearance rates have been trending lower in both Sydney and Melbourne over the past couple of months potentially highlighting a moderation in the rate of home value growth in these cities.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/16/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-16%20at%209.00.28%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/16/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-16%20at%209.00.28%20PM.png" alt="" width="620" height="436"></p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Potential cooling in investment housing demand: Cameron Kusher 

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<p><span>OK so the </span>ABS Building Activity<span> data series doesn't quite run back to 1788, but take a Captain Cook at this:</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/19/BA3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/19/BA3.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<div>Dwelling completions have surged to their highest ever level with more than 186,000 homes completed over the past year.<br><br>Furthermore there are presently some 184,000 dwellings under construction, which is the highest number in Australia's history.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Many pundits scoffed at the Reserve Bank's plan to stimulate construction, but prices are rising and supply has responded with a vengeance, despite inflation in the cost of trades and materials. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As the largest cities have become denser over time, this construction cycle has largely been a story of units, townhouses and apartments - the "attached dwellings" sector. </div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Building work done</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>It should be acknowledged that in spite of all the numbers that are being thrown around in relation to record home starts, record completions and record dwellings under construction, the residential construction boom has likely now nudged against its peak. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite being higher over the year the value of new residential building work done slipped -3.4 per cent lower in the June quarter to $12.8 billion, although the resi sector was held up to some extent by a long overdue +4.0 per cent surge in major renovations work. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There has not been much to shout about from the non-residential sector since the financial crisis stimulus. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/19/BA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/19/BA1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>At the state level the economies of the most populous states have benefited from a building boom, but the value of building work done appears to have peaked, albeit remaining at a historically high level. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/19/BA2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/19/BA2.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Dwelling completions by state</span></strong><br><br><div>Where are new houses coming online? Mainly in Victoria with more than 31,000 houses completed over the past year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/19/BA4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/19/BA4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>As for units and apartments there has been a strong completion rate across most of the larger states, with Victoria again leading the way in completing nearly 25,000 units over the past year. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/19/BA5.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/19/BA5.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Although it will be the topic of a separate blog post, these figures show why the "Sydney oversupply" meme has been wide of the mark. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The above charts represent state level figures, and it is clear that the supply of new units and apartments has ramped up impressively over the past four years.<br><br>But despite the improvement, total dwelling completions in New South Wales of 144,000 dwellings is barely keeping pace with a population which has surged by close to 400,000 over that time, while this follows on from a weak half decade of completions in the harbour city which ran from 2005.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>After accounting for stock obsolescence and demolitions, the thousands of apartments which are left vacant, and the fact that close to half of new dwellings in NSW over that time have been units (which typically house only provide accommodation for a couple)...well, there's not much overbuilding in aggregate to be found in those numbers, even if the rentals market is now fully supplied.<br><br>It is much more difficult for a growing city with a population the size of Greater Sydney (approaching 5 million) to overbuild housing than it is for a city the size of, say, Belfast, although Melbourne is certainly giving its best shot.<br><br>For all that, there are of course plenty of sub-regions around Australia with localised oversupply, and particularly so the case of higher-density dwellings. </div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Commencements peak at record high</span></strong><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>
<div>Total commencements have increased by +14 per cent over the past year to a new high of nearly 210,000.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It was another strong quarter in June, but the 53,314 commencements result was below that of two of the preceding three quarters, and it is forecast that commencements will now decline through 2015/16.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/19/BA6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/19/BA6.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>Finally, there are 184,000 dwellings under construction at the present time, which is the highest figure in Australia's history. </span></p>
<p><span>Click to enlarge</span></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/19/BA7.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>This should keep the residential construction sector operating at or close to its full capacity for some time to come.</span></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
</div>
</div>
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