<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> has lodged plans for a $750 million, three-tower mixed-use precinct that would complete the long-running redevelopment of Carlton's former Carlton United Breweries site.

The proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/185-195-queensberry-street-carlton-vic-3053">46-78 Bouverie Street and 185-195 Queensberry Street</a> spans a 6,468 sqm site, the last remaining undeveloped parcels within the former brewery's 2007 masterplan.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the development will comprise two purpose-built student accommodation towers and a third build-to-sell apartment tower above a shared commercial podium and basement.

Across the three towers, SP Setia is proposing 606 build-to-sell apartments and 1,499 student accommodation units containing 2,009 beds.

The apartments will sit in the tallest tower, which will rise nearly 200m and 55 storeys. It will become&nbsp;one of the more substantial new build-to-sell apartment projects at the northern edge of Melbourne's CBD.

The apartment mix is weighted toward smaller inner-city product, with 188 studios, 206 one-bedroom apartments, 192 two-bedroom apartments and 20 three-bedroom apartments

<img alt="First look: SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8271bc87-1b0a-41b7-ac73-a425ee375261" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/3_2.png?VersionId=G4lw23o90B1boX4k4dj7rdz2ZEajS9wy" />

Part of the precinct will be a large-scale&nbsp;3,684 sqm supermarket and a further 2,198 sqm of speciality retail, creating close to 5,900 sqm of new commercial space within the precinct.

But one of the biggest components of the proposal is what sits between the buildings.

Around 4,650 sqm, or roughly 72 per cent of the site, will be publicly accessible open space, incorporating plazas, pedestrian connections, landscaped laneways and retail spill-out areas.

The ground plane is intended to finally complete pedestrian connections envisaged when the CUB masterplan was first approved nearly two decades ago, stitching together Victoria Street, Queensberry Street, Bouverie Street and Swanston Street through the former brewery precinct.

Urbis said the development would "complete the CUB precinct", with the public realm providing important north-south and east-west connections through what is currently the final undeveloped portion of the masterplanned site.

SP Setia is also exploring a new linear park within the Bouverie Street road reserve, with the concept to be developed further with the City of Melbourne through the planning process.

The proposal is being pursued through the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program under Clause 53.23 for significant residential development with affordable housing.

The planning report acknowledges the proposed heights exceed those contemplated under the original Comprehensive Development Plan and masterplan, but argues the built-form context has changed considerably over the past two decades.

Urbis said the three towers would instead create a stepped transition between Carlton and the Hoddle Grid, rising progressively from the 94.1-metre Tower One along the Queensberry Street edge to the 199.44-metre Tower Three closer to the established CBD-scale buildings to the south.

<img alt="SP Setia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e885a07a-592c-40fc-bf82-e6dbaf32da54" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.52.24%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7s_ErUkSKAdY1mAWp3GRZgMNCGtwhk5m" />

SP Setia plans to deliver the development across three stages.

Stage One would deliver the basement, podium and retail areas for the entire precinct alongside the first student tower. Tower Two would follow in Stage Two, before the 606-apartment Tower Three is delivered as the final stage.

If approved and delivered, the project would close out a redevelopment process that has been underway since the former brewery masterplan was approved in 2007, adding more than 2,600 student beds and apartments to a precinct already home to Swanston Central, the Barak Building, RMIT Design Hub and several large student accommodation developments.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct

Melbourne developer Lowe Living is seeking to add to its growing bayside apartment pipeline, filing plans for a boutique eight-residence development in tightly held Middle Park.

Lowe Living, which has built much of its development portfolio across Melbourne's affluent bayside and south-east suburbs, is behind the plans for the 730 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/123-125-erskine-street-middle-park-vic-3206">123-125 Erskine Street</a>, just off Armstrong Street and within the Armstrong Street Neighbourhood Activity Centre.

The developer is seeking approval for a five-storey residential building above two basement levels, with just eight large-format apartments and 18 car spaces.

“This is a deliberately very different proposition for us,"&nbsp;Tim Lowe, Co-Founder of Lowe Living, said.

"Eight residences is exceptionally boutique, but that's precisely what this site calls for.

“There is a strong community in Middle Park and the surrounding suburbs who have spent decades building a life here. They no longer want the maintenance of a large period home, but they aren't prepared to compromise on space, quality or location. We think there is a real opportunity to capture that hyper local market. A site like this rarely comes to market.”

<img alt="Lowe " data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="875fe572-0f14-4d90-9e11-55b28dd07731" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.42.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GDNQRv9BfpR9r1zkZ5UDyUM4ZvpIksut" />

The low-density proposal has been designed by Cera Stribley and is being progressed through the Victorian Government's Great Design Fast Track pathway, having already secured eligibility from the Minister for Planning.

The Office of the Victorian Government Architect supported its eligibility after finding the proposal demonstrated consistency with the program's seven design principles, while the project's financial feasibility has also been independently confirmed by Invest Victoria.

The project is targeting the downsizer market, with the planning documents describing the homes as larger-format residences and noting the two penthouses could otherwise have been configured as four separate apartments.

<img alt="Lowe 2" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="60ab0987-2da6-4175-adac-315dcf6053c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.15%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=bOCPH0B2MFwlmaRW.TTCF9TzyifgVoQI" />

The site has dual frontage to Erskine Street and Canterbury Place and currently comprises a collection of commercial buildings used as offices, including a former heritage bakehouse, a former stable, a later gabled addition and a central courtyard.

It sits within the Commercial 1 Zone and the Armstrong Street Commercial Precinct heritage overlay, with the existing property classified as a contributory heritage place.

Heritage has subsequently played a significant role in Cera Stribley's design.

The front section of the former bakehouse facing Erskine Street will be retained, including its return walls, street-facing hipped roof and chimneys, while the Erskine Street façade and part of the western return wall of the former stable will also be incorporated into the new development.

Levels four and five will be set back five metres from the retained stable façade, while bricks removed through demolition are proposed to be salvaged and reused within the new building where possible.

<img alt="Lowe 3" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e97927a9-a2de-4a0f-83b6-65451238abfa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.06%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VR44AChLrX9q1XPB9GvVQV.ALXXbe4gC" />

Rather than presenting as a single five-storey building to Erskine Street, Cera Stribley has broken the development into a series of distinct forms.

A three-storey infill element will sit between the retained bakehouse and stable façades, with the upper levels recessed behind the heritage fabric. Canterbury Place will similarly feature two three-storey podium forms, separated by a central pedestrian accessway, before the upper two levels step back from the street.

A pedestrian through-link will run through the centre of the project between Erskine Street and Canterbury Place, creating entrances from both sides of the site and introducing landscaping and communal areas through the ground plane.

Landscape architect Acre has designed planting across the ground level, private terraces and upper levels, including a feature canopy tree at level three and integrated planting and arbours across the level four terraces. Five existing Erskine Street trees are proposed to be retained.

Sustainability is also a significant component of the Great Design Fast Track application. The apartments are targeting an average eight-star NatHERS rating, with no residence below 6.5 stars, while the project has achieved a 75 per cent BESS score. Seven of the eight apartments are designed for cross-ventilation, with the remaining residence using mechanically assisted natural ventilation.

The plans also incorporate an 8kWp rooftop solar system, a 5,000-litre rainwater tank and infrastructure allowing future electric vehicle charging for every residence.

Lowe has a strong portfolio across Melbourne's blue-chip suburbs. They recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/jardin-house-by-lowe-living-camberwell-335-camberwell-road-camberwell-vic-3124">Jardin House by Lowe Living</a> in Camberwell, their first development in the Stonnington LGA.

Lowe Living unveils Middle Park apartment development

Article summary

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.

The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" />

The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.

“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;

“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."

Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."

"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." />

The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.

A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.

Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" />

Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.

“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.

“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.

“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" />

Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.

With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]

DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

<a data-end="327" data-is-only-node="" data-start="250" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/norus-projects" rel="noopener" target="_new">Norus Developments</a> has lodged plans for a new apartment development in Clayton that would add further momentum to the suburb's emerging Green Street corridor.

Plans have been lodged for the consolidated site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1359-1365-centre-road-clayton-vic-3168">1359-1365 Centre Road</a>, where Norus is seeking approval for 218 apartments across a 12-storey apartment building designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/life-architecture-and-urban-design">Life Architecture</a>.

The proposal sits within the Clayton Major Activity Centre at the threshold of the planned Green Street corridor, a landscaped pedestrian connection intended to improve links through the precinct towards Clayton Railway Station.

The development would replace the site's existing collection of low-scale residential and commercial buildings with a single consolidated building, introducing significantly greater housing density to this part of Centre Road.

A retail tenancy is proposed at ground level to activate the Centre Road frontage, accompanied by transparent street interfaces and landscaping intended to create a more pedestrian-focused edge to the development.

<img alt="First look: Norus Developments plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0a5a763a-d9e9-4253-af2f-88008de27ebf" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Clayton%20a.png?VersionId=S2WJJbat1XVkZwB9SnYtygirXgWHiklX" />

The building has been designed with stepped massing and upper-level setbacks to manage its transition towards surrounding residential properties. The planning report describes the approach as one that integrates the building into the landscape rather than treating landscaping as a secondary element.

"A strong landscape and public realm strategy underpins the proposal," Urbis states in the planning report.

"Public benefits include an affordable housing contribution, a new pocket park, generous landscaped setbacks, deep soil planting and integrated Water Sensitive Urban Design."

The report adds that these elements are intended to create "a permeable, pedestrian-focused ground plane that enhances walkability, supports urban cooling and reinforces the emerging Green Street character."

Biophilic and passive design principles extend through the residential levels, with planting, daylight, natural ventilation and views towards landscaped areas forming part of the amenity strategy.

Parking would be concentrated away from the public realm, with 145 car spaces proposed from the rear laneway rather than dominating the Centre Road frontage.

The proposal follows an extensive pre-application process with the City of Monash. Three formal meetings were held between the project team and Council from December 2025 to March 2026, with the scheme evolving through several concept iterations before the current design was lodged.

The project arrives as Clayton prepares for substantial change around its established activity centre and the wider Suburban Rail Loop precinct. Its position on Centre Road places the development within an existing concentration of shops, services and public transport, while the Green Street connection is intended to strengthen pedestrian access towards Clayton Railway Station.

First look: Norus plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a> has officially commenced construction on Bronze on Chevron, celebrating the sod turning of its first-ever Gold Coast development and marking a significant milestone in the company's continued expansion across South East Queensland.&nbsp;

Following the successful delivery of premium residential developments throughout Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-chevron-island-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> represents Gardner Vaughan Group's entry into the Gold Coast market. Bronze will deliver 119 one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments above two ground-level retail tenancies.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367193]

The recent sod turning ceremony was attended by Deputy Mayor Mark Hammel, President of the Surfers Paradise Surf Life Saving Club, Cassandra Sedgman, project consultants, purchasers, project partners and invited guests to celebrate the commencement of construction.&nbsp;

Gardner Vaughan Group Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge said Bronze on Chevron represented an exciting new chapter for the business.&nbsp;

"We've spent almost four decades building homes that respond to the way people want to live, and we're excited to bring that experience to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chevron-island-qld-4217">Chevron Island</a>," Betteridge said.

"Bronze on Chevron is particularly significant because it marks Gardner Vaughan Group's first development on the Gold Coast following many successful projects across Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367183]

Betteridge said the ground breaking is a proud moment for the&nbsp;team and their purchasers, who can now see their future homes beginning to take shape.&nbsp;

"As both developer and builder, we're able to oversee every aspect of the project from design through to construction, ensuring the quality and attention to detail Gardner Vaughan Group has become renowned for."&nbsp;

Designed by acclaimed architectural practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, Bronze on Chevron has been thoughtfully designed to complement Chevron Island's evolving streetscape while embracing its relaxed coastal lifestyle.

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029

Gardner Vaughan Group breaks ground on first Gold Coast development, Bronze on Chevron

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to return to a holding pattern, leaving the cash rate at 1.00%, according to the latest survey data from Finder.com.au.
In the latest Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey™ 44 of the 46 experts and economists (96%) predict the board will hold at the August meeting to let the June and July cuts trickle through the economy.
Almost all experts (92%, 38) expect the next cash rate move will be a cut. Nearly half (49%, 21) are predicting a final low of 0.50%, while a third (35%, 15) tip believe it will bottom out at 0.75%.
But the holding pattern may not last long; the most popular months cited for another cash rate cut are November (35%, 17) followed by October (23%, 11).
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said with the effects of recent cuts still unrealised, the board is hesitant to cut in three consecutive months.
“The jury’s out on the impact of these most recent cuts – it’s simply too soon to tell.
“Economists feel slightly more confident that recent cuts will have a positive effect on the economy once given time to roll out. While positivity is generally still low, housing affordability remains the most positive economic element.” 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/5/Finder%20-%20August%206%20-%201.JPG" alt="">
“The falling cash rate combined with falling house prices creates a catch-22 for Aussies looking to break into the property market. Buyers will be wanting to take advantage of historically low rates, but also wanting to purchase at the bottom of the market.”
Despite US rate cut, economists are focused on China When asked to indicate their two main economic concerns for Australia right now, decisions by the Federal Reserve in the US ranked towards the bottom of the list, being cited by just three economists (5%).
(Note: some responses were submitted just before the first US cash rate cut since 2008, which saw its lending rate fall to 2.25%.)
Instead, (27%, cited by 17 respondents) experts tipped international relations like the fate of US-China Trade Deal and Australian-Chinese trade in general (14%, 9) as massive concerns for the economy, above issues like unemployment, inflation and housing prices.
“What’s happening between China, Australia and the US right now could have far more potential impact on Australia than the Fed Reserve,” Cooke said.
“If the US and China can finally agree on a trade deal, this may result in US imports replacing Australian ones in some Chinese sectors.
“With Australian beef and dairy being particularly strong trade commodities in this space right now, such a deal could be bad for Aussie farmers, and ultimately our economy.”
Peter Boehm of KVB Kunlun said domestic concerns are just part of the equation.
“The impact of international trade negotiations will also play an important role in determining the need or otherwise for another rate adjustment.”
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/5/Finder%20-%20August%206%20-%202.JPG" alt="">
Results from Finder’s Economic Sentiment Tracker™, which gauges five key indicators – housing affordability, employment, wage growth, cost of living and household debt – show nearly all tipped more positive this month following the second rate cut.
Introduced in March 2018, this month’s tracker set an all-time low for economic sentiment in cost of living (3%).
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Cash rate will hold meanwhile concerns over China-US relations grow

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The RBA meets on August 6 and releases the Statement on Monetary Policy on August 9. We think it is quite unlikely that the Board will decide to do a third consecutive cut at this meeting but remain comfortable with our view that the RBA will deliver additional 25bps cuts in October and February.
The Reserve Bank Board meets on August 6 to consider whether to extend the sequence of rate cuts in June and July for another month.
We think it is quite unlikely that the Board will decide to do a third consecutive cut at this meeting.
Following the cut in July, the Governor noted, “The Board will continue to monitor developments in the labour market closely and adjust monetary policy if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time".
That statement compared with the June statement, “The Board will continue to monitor developments in the labour market closely and adjust monetary policy to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time".
The inclusion of the term “if needed” in the July statement indicates that the level of urgency for the next cut is lower in July than it was in June – implying that some time would be required to assess whether another cut was needed.
I wrote at the time of the release of the July Board minutes: “my experience is that when a central bank decides to pause, it often refers back to previous policy decisions. In the final paragraph of the July minutes, the Board notes “this decision, together with the reduction in the cash rate decided at the previous meeting, would assist in reducing spare capacity in the economy”.
Finally it is worth recalling the final paragraph of the speech which the Governor delivered after the Darwin Board meeting in July when he noted: “So we will be closely monitoring how things evolve over coming months.” The use of the plural (months) seems to be confirmation that there would be no urgency to move as soon as August.
On July 25th, we revised our forecast of the timing of the next rate cut from November to October. In addition we extended the easing cycle to include another, and final, cut, in February next year. We remain comfortable with that view.
The Governor’s Statement next week will be of interest particularly around whether he is planning to move as soon as September. Here we will certainly be interested in whether he persists with the “if needed” qualification. We favour that term still being used implying that, at least at the time of the meeting, the Board expects to hold fire in September.
Other themes will be consistent with the July statement are: strong employment growth but spare capacity in the labour market; housing conditions soft, although tentative signs of stabilisation in Sydney and Melbourne (CoreLogic reported house prices in Sydney and Melbourne lifted by 0.2% in July); inflation pressures subdued, although the central scenario remaining for trimmed mean inflation to be 2% in 2020; and the central scenario remaining for growth to be around trend.
These themes will give us an early signal of the revised forecasts for growth, inflation and unemployment which will be released with the August Statement on Monetary Policy on August 9. These forecasts are critical for gauging the Bank’s approach to policy and he will be testifying to Parliament that same morning.
Recall that when the last set of forecasts was released in May, the RBA forecast GDP growth at 2.75% in both 2019 and 2020. That is a benign outlook given that “trend” is assessed as 2.75%. However it is going to be difficult to credibly maintain the 2019 growth forecast at 2.75%.
Since the May Forecasts were released, GDP growth in the March quarter printed a low 0.4% and the partials for the June quarter are pointing to around 0.5%. A 0.9% read for the first half of the year requires 0.9% quarterly increases in each of the last two quarters.
Now we acknowledge that the second half of 2019 will be stronger than the first half with the benefits of the rate cuts, tax cuts, stabilising of the housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne, and lower AUD; but we certainly do not see growth lifting to an annualised pace outside 2.5-3.0%. It is most likely that the RBA will choose the 3% pace and lower the forecast for GDP growth in 2019 to 2.5% from 2.75%. That would provide a credible base for retaining the 2.75% forecast in 2020. We see the pace at nearer 2.5% in 2019 H2, ultimately pushing the RBA's forecast for 2019 back to 2.25% and 2020 to around 2.5%.
The June quarter Inflation Report provided the RBA with some welcome news. The trimmed mean inflation rate for the quarter printed 0.42%, above the Westpac forecast of 0.3%. This followed a 0.3% in the March quarter. We detected a stronger than expected pass through in clothing, footwear, household goods and cars from the low AUD.
With 0.3% in Q1 followed by 0.42% in Q2, the RBA can, with a large stretch, retain its forecast for the trimmed mean of 1.75% for 2019, making a drift up to 2% in 2020 a reasonable outcome. We expect the trimmed mean in the September quarter to print 0.3% for a rounded 1.5% for 2019. The RBA is likely to confront that reality for the November Statement, forcing it to delay the return of the trimmed mean inflation rate to 2% in 2021. For now, it will most likely continue to declare that trimmed mean inflation will be back within the 2-3% band in 2020.
So far, so good, but the unemployment rate forecast is likely to be a major problem for the RBA. Recall that in May, it forecast the unemployment rate to hold at 5.0% through 2019 and 2020. Unfortunately the rate for June has lifted to 5.24% against a May SOMP forecast of 5.0%. The problem is compounded by the 'rule-of-thumb' amongst economists that above trend growth is required to lower the unemployment rate. At best, the RBA will be forecasting trend growth in 2020, challenging any forecast that the unemployment rate will fall from the current 5.25%.
It will be this tension with the unemployment rate, which we expect to lift to 5.4% by year’s end that will trigger that 0.25% rate cut in October.
This problem will be further complicated for the RBA by market pricing. The forecasts in May already incorporated the two rate cuts in June and July (although markets were envisaging the cuts to come later in the year). The forecasts in August will incorporate a further cut in October (market pricing) and a near full second cut by mid-2020.
If, as we expect, those forecasts will be barely acceptable for growth and inflation and well below the RBA’s “desired” 4.5% for the unemployment rate, then the very least that the RBA can do is to deliver a 25bp October cut and plan to repeat the dose in 2020 H1.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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RBA to hold in August but further cuts forecast in 2019 and early 2020: Bill Evans

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Interest rates for investors are finally heading south with the average investor principal and interest rate dropping 35 basis points, according to financial comparison site mozo.com.au.
Falling from 4.76% to 4.41% following consecutive official rate cuts and changes to the APRA cap.
On average an investor with a $300,000 loan taken over 30 years will be $63 a month better off following the cuts.
Mozo Property Expert Steve Jovcevski said, “the RBA’s decision to cut 50 basis points off the official cash rate this year and the removal of the APRA cap on interest only loans has warmed up the paddles of life for property investors."
“It’s encouraging that as well as rate cuts for investors paying principal and interest, we’re seeing a downward movement on interest only loans."
“This time two years ago property investors were staring down average interest only rates of 5.12% and lenders were handcuffed around the volume of loans they could issue by the APRA cap," he added.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/29/Mozo%20Interest%20Rates.JPG" alt="">
Following the RBA’s action on rates this year, Mozo found Westpac made the most significant cuts of the Big 4 banks slicing 35 basis points off its investor interest only rate in June, and 30 basis points in July.
CBA wasn’t far behind with two full 25 basis point cuts.
Jovcevski says, “while this rate relief is welcome news for investors, compared to owner occupiers, they are still in the hurt locker. At a time when rental returns are under pressure, it’s still difficult to lay a solid foundation for investing in property."
“Considering the current average investor interest only rate of 4.52% is still higher than it was before APRA introduced its cap in 2017, the investor loan market still has a lot of room to move in the coming months," Jovcevski concluded.
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Interest rates for investors are finally heading south: Mozo.com.au

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NAB made changes to its home loan serviceability assessment policy, dropping its interest-rate floor to 5.5 per cent and increasing its interest-rate buffer to 2.5 per cent.
The changes are effective for all new home loan applications from 5 August.
The changes came after APRA revised its home-lending guidance, abolishing the 7 per cent interest-rate floor for mortgage assessments and raising the buffer rate to 2.5 per cent.
It is the last of the Big Four to tweak its serviceability policy with the other three announcing revisions and cuts earlier in July.
NAB has matched ANZ’s rate floor of 5.5 per cent.
They beat out their Big Four peers CBA and Westpac, who dropped their floor rates to 5.75 per cent.
<a href="/news/westpac-immediately-relaxes-serviceability-conditions-on-low-risk-owner-occupier-home-loans">Westpac was the first of the Big four</a> to make the cut.
All four increased the buffer rate to 2.5 per cent.
<a href="/expert-insights/finance/macquarie-bank-cuts-interest-rate-floor-2-per-cent-cba-unmoved">Macquarie</a> currently has the lowest interest rate floor at 5.3 per cent.
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NAB last of the Big Four to cut interest rate floor

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Macquarie Bank has made changes to its home loan serviceability assessment policy, reducing its interest rate floor from 7.25% to 5.3%.
Their new assessment rate floor is up to 45 basis points lower than the rest of the big four.
It has increased the assessment buffer rate from 2.25 per cent to 2.5 per cent, which is in line with changes by Westpac and ANZ.
Suncorp Bank has also revealed to stated that it will be cutting its interest rate floor from 7.25% to 5.5%
Westpac has also reduced their savings rates by up to 0.20 per cent.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/19/Macquaire%202.png" alt="">
(Source: RateCity.com.au)
RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said, "customers with an eSaver will be bitterly disappointed to find out they’ll be earning just 0.15 per cent interest on their savings on an ongoing basis. "
“All eyes are now on CBA to see what cuts they’ll make to their savings accounts. As the nation’s biggest bank, savings account holders are waiting with bated breath"
Thus far CBA is the only big bank that hasn’t cut savings rates following the July RBA cash rate cut.
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Macquarie Bank cuts interest rate floor 2 per cent, CBA unmoved

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GUEST OBSERVATION
“Churning” out of and back in to home ownership is becoming common. We haven’t caught up.
More than in many countries, in Australia home ownership has traditionally been seen as a journey, with most of us aspiring to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14616718.2014.984827" target="_blank">own a home</a> and <a href="/news">pay down a mortgage</a> by the time we retire.
Because it’s been seen as a one-way street, we have tended to worry most about the first big transition: moving from renting to getting a mortgage, assuming that afterwards things will be okay. But things are becoming more complicated.
The charts below are built from microdata from the Bureau of Statistics <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6541.0.30.001Main+Features12013-14" target="_blank">survey of income and housing</a>. Each shows the changing housing profiles of Australians in a particular age group between 1990 and 2015.
The bars show – from left to right – the share of Australians who are renting, have large mortgage debt, moderate mortgage debt, low mortgage debt; and have become outright owners, both in 1990 and 2015.
Then and now. Home tenure by type, per cent
25 - 34 year olds:
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283975/original/file-20190714-173360-7fwyjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
35 - 54 year olds:
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283974/original/file-20190714-173360-rfaur1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
55 - 64 year olds:
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283976/original/file-20190714-173355-12ynhbo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
High debt = mortgage debt-to-income ratio above 200%, middle debt = 100-200%, low debt = below 100%. <a class="source" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6553.0" target="_blank">Author's calculations, ABS 6553.0 microdata</a>
Less ownership, more churning
In each age group there is more renting and less ownership than there used to be.
And among owners, there is much less outright ownership and much more high debt than there used to be, exposing more of them to the risk of losing their homes.
Indeed, data from the <a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/hilda" target="_blank">Household, Income and Labour Dynamics</a> survey shows that in the first decade of this century alone, nearly 2 million people left home ownership and returned to renting.
These “leavers” represent one fifth of all home owners in the decade.
But this wasn’t a one-way street either. Of those who lost their home, nearly two-thirds regained home ownership later in the decade. Astonishingly, 7% of these “churners” moved in and out of home ownership <a href="/news">more than once</a>.
Who’s leaving, who’s churning?
The edges of home ownership are becoming permeable, in an especially Australian way. Leavers and churners are more common in Australia <a href="/news">than in Britain</a>, a country which on the surface has a similar high home ownership rate and a well-developed mortgage market.
Leavers appear to be characterised by <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14616718.2015.1115225" target="_blank">mortgage stress, divorce or relationship breakdown and poor health</a>. They have better chances to regaining ownership if they were able to extract relatively large amounts of <a href="/news">home equity</a> before they leave.
Those who are able to find <a href="/news">rent-free housing</a>, say from parents, find it easier to save for a deposit to get them back into home ownership.
Some are able to directly access the “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19491247.2017.1278580?journalCode=reuj20" target="_blank">bank of mum and dad</a>”. It is a leg up only available to those with <a href="https://theconversation.com/not-everyone-wins-from-the-bank-of-mum-and-dad-73842" target="_blank">wealthy and willing parents</a>, accentuating the socio-economic divide between owners and renters.
What will have to change?
There are at least three important implications.
First, debt-free home ownership in old age can no longer be regarded as the norm; instead, <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-people-are-retiring-with-high-mortgage-debts-the-implications-are-huge-115134" target="_blank">mortgage stress in old age</a> will become more common as churners take on more debt later in order to regain home ownership.
This raises complex questions around how ageing mortgage holders will manage retirement strategies, superannuation payouts and spending to cope with <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/research-in-progress/ahuri-research-projects/mortgage-stress-and-precarious-homeownership-implications-for-older-australians" target="_blank">mortgages that aren’t extinguished</a>.
Second, <a href="https://www.ceda.com.au/CEDA/media/General/Publication/PDFs/HousingAustraliaFinal_Flipsnack.pdf" target="_blank">lifelong renting</a> will become more common. This means governments will need to prepare for an upsurge in spending on <a href="/news">housing assistance</a> and pressure for legislation to provide greater <a href="https://www.ceda.com.au/CEDA/media/General/Publication/PDFs/HousingAustraliaFinal_Flipsnack.pdf" target="_blank">security of tenure</a> for private renters.
Evidence suggests mortgage indebtedness <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0308518X16688471" target="_blank">depresses wellbeing</a>. On the other hand, people who have abandoned their mortgage experience a notable rebound in wellbeing, especially if they get <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0308518X16688471" target="_blank">secure rental tenure</a>.
Finally, governments cannot just focus on programs that help first home buyers, such as the <a href="https://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2019/05/12/helping-australians-buy-their-first-home" target="_blank">First Home Loan Deposit Scheme</a> announced during the election. They will need to design programs that help prevent people from dropping out and help former owners get back.
The growing twilight zone between being an owner and being being a renter is largely unrecognised in the political imagination.
Rachel Ong ViforJ, Professor of Economics, School of Economics, Finance and Property, Curtin University.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-edges-of-home-ownership-are-becoming-porous-its-no-longer-a-one-way-street-119995" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Home ownership churn becoming increasingly common: Rachel Ong ViforJ

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Over the past week, 14 lenders decreased owner occupier variable rate loans, while 12 providers decreased owner occupier fixed rate loans, according to Canstar.
Greater Bank have introduced new low rates for owner occupier fixed rate loans: 2.79% for a one-year fixed rate, 3.39% for four and five-year fixed rates. 
They also found when looking to investment rates that 12 providers decreased variable investment rates and 10 lenders decreased investment fixed rates.
ANZ and NAB made variable rate decreases of 0.25% and 0.19% respectively; NAB also reduced its fixed rates by between 0.30% and 0.80% for both owner occupier and investment loans.
The tables below display these latest changes:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/15/Canstar%201.png" alt="">
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/15/Canstar%202.png" alt="">
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/15/Canstar%203.png" alt="">
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/15/Canstar%204.png" alt="">
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The latest interest rate changes following the RBA cuts: Canstar

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ANZ and Westpac have changed their respective home-loan serviceability floor rates while increasing their buffer rates to 2.5%. 
Westpac will assess home loan borrowers against their capacity to repay the loan at 5.75 per cent, a reduction from 7.25 per cent, in a move that should make it easier for people to secure loans.
The bank moved just days after the ANZ Banking Group became the first lender to pass on the benefit of the loosened lending limits.
The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) announced earlier this month that it would relax rules to allow banks to assess a borrower's ability to repay their mortgage if interest rates rose to 7 per cent.
Under the change in rules, banks would now only have to apply a 2.5 per cent "sensitivity margin" on current interest rates when assessing home loan eligibility.
ANZ yesterday told mortgage brokers it would lower its mortgage assessment floor to 5.5 per cent as of yesterday.
RateCity estimates that if a bank used an assessment rate of 6 per cent instead of the current 7.25 per cent, a family of four with an average household income of $109,688 would see their borrowing capacity rise by $77,000.
Commonwealth Bank and National Australia Bank are reviewing their serviceability requirements. 
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Which banks have made it easier to get home loans after APRA decision?

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EXPERT OBSERVATIONS
Geordan Murray, a Senior Economist at HIA, said the home lending figures released by the ABS today show the number of loans to households building new homes grew modestly in May.
Overall housing finance commitments for construction and purchase of new homes grew in the month of May by a modest 2.3 per cent but remain 11.7 per cent lower than the same month last year.
The credit squeeze that emerged from mid-2018 has seen lending for the construction of new homes contract sharply.
This month’s data suggests that these conditions have started to ease.
The improvement in lending in May is stronger than we had anticipated and reflects an increased level of borrowing from first home buyers.
This is the strongest month of borrowing by first home buyers this year.
There has been an improvement in housing market sentiment in the weeks following the federal election.
When combined with the RBA’s rate cuts and easing of APRA restrictions, there is cause to be optimistic that lending activity could improve as the year progresses.
However REIA President Adrian Kelly believes the May 2019 Lending to Households and Business figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics show the number of loans for housing, excluding refinancing, continues to decline, but at a slower rate.
Mr Kelly said, overall the figures for May 2019 show, in trend terms that the number of owner-occupied finance commitments, excluding refinancing, decreased by 0.5 per cent –the twenty first consecutive month of decreases and the lowest since August 2012.
The value of investment housing commitments, excluding refinancing, decreased by 1.5 per cent in May. This is down 27.8 per cent from a year ago and is at its lowest level since March 2009.
The number of loans to first home buyers increased by 0.8 per cent and is the highest since November 2018 whilst the proportion of first home buyers, as part of the total owner-occupied housing finance commitments increased in May to 18.8 per cent from 18.2 per cent in April.
Whilst the total number of finance commitments for May show a continuing, but modest, decline it needs to be remembered that the Federal election was held in the middle of the month with considerable uncertainty regarding the outcome and concern about changes to property taxation and its impact should there be a change in Government. 
With the post election boost in confidence in the real estate market as evidenced by higher levels of enquiry, two cuts in interest rates and changes in APRA’s requirements May will most likely mark the bottom of the lending cycle.
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Conflicting opinions on the strength of housing lending strength: HIA & REIA

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Another industry body has lent its voice to the growing calls for tax reform around stamp duty. 
HIA’s Stamp Duty Watch report is a regular review of policies and the latest developments in the states and territories around Australia.
Replacing stamp duty with a more predictable and equitable tax would provide state governments with a more reliable source of revenue, explained HIA Chief Economist, Tim Reardon.
“State governments have become increasingly dependent on stamp duty revenues,” said Reardon.
“Stamp duty is an unreliable source of revenue and the increased dependence makes states heavily susceptible to housing market downturns.
“In NSW the downturn in the property market is forecast to cost $10.6 billion in lost revenue over the forward estimates.
“In Victoria where the decline in house prices has been more modest, revenue from stamp duty has been revised down by $5.2 billion.”
The sharp drop in revenues highlights the vulnerability of state budgets, Reardon said.
“In 2018/19 stamp duty revenues made up over one-fifth of all taxation revenue raised in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania,” he said.
“Victoria has the highest dependency on stamp duty revenues closely followed by NSW.
“The ACT, which is seven years into an ambitious 20-year tax reform program to replace stamp duty, has the lowest dependence on stamp duty.
“It makes up only 13% of total taxation revenue.
“Alternative broad-based tax measures could deliver a more consistent and reliable revenue stream.”
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/4/nsw%20budget.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/4/nsw%20budget.jpg" alt="">
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