<p>An entity directed by HSN's Rafi Assouline and Rebel Property's Allen Linz has filed plans for an impressive new precinct in Woolloomooloo.</p>

<p>The major mixed-use development would transform a prominent William Street site into a new residential village anchored by affordable housing and a large public park.</p>

<p>The proposal, submitted as a State Significant Development Application, covers 164-172 and 174-194 William Street, a 6,398 sqm site between Forbes Street and Dowling Street on the southern edge of Woolloomooloo.</p>

<p>Designed by fjcstudio in collaboration with Bangawarra, Studio Bright and Tribe Studio Architects, the scheme would deliver 227 apartments across four residential buildings ranging in height up to 18 storeys, alongside retail space, public domain improvements and a new publicly accessible park.</p>

<p><img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0eb59b7c-914a-4a5c-b849-3a56749f5e93" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.18.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=mxM6EEqeoLjrCiTlCzTKTvzpKuh6kSkH" /></p>

<p>It's another design scheme for Rebel, who took <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-rebel-property-group-takes-woolloomooloo-precinct-to-nsw-government">concept plans to the NSW Gov late last year</a>.</p>

<p>The latest plans will be a mix of 167 build-to-sell apartments and 60 affordable apartments, with the affordable housing component representing 15 per cent of the project's gross floor area. The apartment mix includes 12 one-bedroom, 53 two-bedroom, 89 three-bedroom apartments and 13 penthouses, while the affordable housing component would comprise 42 one-bedroom and 18 two-bedroom apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3b3d4553-8a8c-4af5-aa8c-519ffb1e28c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.12%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=_Yb6ibN7eDnOtQjCNDK2eviORa4qzgv." /></p>

<p>Rebel Property is seeking to take advantage of the NSW Government's infill affordable housing bonus provisions under the Housing SEPP, which provide additional floor space and height in exchange for the delivery of affordable housing for a minimum of 15 years. The planning pathway allows a 30 per cent increase in floor space ratio and building height where 15 per cent of the development is dedicated to affordable housing.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>At the centre of the development is a 1,356 sqm sunlit public park designed to become a new community gathering space at the gateway to Woolloomooloo. The park would be complemented by a network of pedestrian laneways connecting William Street with the surrounding streets, improving permeability through what is currently a largely impermeable block.</p>

<p><img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="257af931-a393-4007-8c6d-7219796df58d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=KAHy94GrhaReFsWTGDKfy39EDJ8gEEv4" /></p>

<p>The design team says the public domain has been heavily influenced by the site's topography and Aboriginal cultural heritage, drawing on the escarpments, gullies and landscape characteristics that historically defined the area before urbanisation. The landscape design has been developed in partnership with First Nations consultancy Bangawarra.</p>

<p>The project would be delivered across four separate buildings. The William Street East and William Street West buildings, designed by fjcstudio, would contain the majority of the apartments. Melbourne-based Studio Bright has designed the Forbes Street building, while Tribe Studio Architects is responsible for the Dowling Street building.</p>

<p>Rebel had secured approval for the concept plans late last year.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look: HSN, Rebel, advances Woolloomooloo precinct plans

<p>A locally heritage-listed furniture showroom on Water Street is set to become the centrepiece of a new mixed-use residential development as local developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/keylin-group">Keylin</a> seeks approval for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lotus-on-water-street-290-water-street-fortitude-valley-qld-4006">Lotus on Water Street</a>, a 15-storey project on the Fortitude Valley side of Spring Hill.</p>

<p>The proposal spans 290 Water Street and 137-141 Warry Street, combining several properties into a 2,869 sqm site that sits between Fortitude Valley, Spring Hill and the rapidly evolving Victoria Park precinct. Keylin's plans would deliver 132 apartments alongside new retail, hospitality and commercial space, while retaining and repurposing the historic Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom that fronts Water Street.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/jackson-teece">Jackson Teece</a>, Lotus on Water Street comprises a 12-storey residential tower rising above a three-storey podium and communal rooftop terrace. The development includes 76 apartments classified as multiple dwellings and a further 56 units proposed as short-term accommodation, designed to be flexibly used as either accommodation or permanent residences. The apartment mix comprises six one-bedroom, 54 two-bedroom and 16 three-bedroom homes.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9822bb79-6c49-49c9-95ba-319e8c8d81c3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20front.png?VersionId=ioW8zbN4UVebbLetTFuv92t.HkdgfR5e" /></p>

<p>Residents would have access to an extensive rooftop recreation level spanning more than 1,200 sqm of communal open space. Plans include a pool, gym, sauna, infrared sauna, yoga area, library, private dining room, barbecue facilities and landscaped entertainment spaces, making the rooftop the project's largest shared amenity offering.</p>

<p>At street level, the proposal focuses on the adaptive reuse of the heritage buildings along Water Street, where 518 sqm of retail and commercial space is planned across shop, office and food and drink outlet uses. A permeable residential lobby would be positioned between the retained heritage buildings, creating a pedestrian connection between the historic streetscape and the new tower behind.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="269cf3e0-7d13-48bf-a318-05a00deb5c10" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20podium.png?VersionId=DLXmTCLsp6GOcLpQ0h.0z7wKCw59EhN_" /></p>

<p>The heritage retention strategy is central to the scheme. The development application notes that the Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom and adjoining heritage buildings will remain, with only non-significant structures on the site earmarked for removal under a previously issued Heritage Exemption Certificate. Levels one and two of the new podium are recessed behind the heritage façades to maintain their prominence within the streetscape.</p>

<p>Jackson Teece has drawn inspiration from the site's manufacturing history when designing the podium. The planning documents state that the façade incorporates perforated metal screening that references the woven and rattan furniture historically produced on the site. Cascading and climbing plants are integrated throughout the podium to soften the building's presentation and screen parking levels behind. The landscape strategy also informs the project's name, Lotus on Water Street, drawing on the historic Spring Hollow waterholes that once ran through Spring Hill and the blue water lilies associated with Meeanjin, Brisbane's traditional name.</p>

<p>The proposal also incorporates the neighbouring property at 141 Warry Street, currently occupied by a healthcare service. The existing building would remain, with nine dedicated parking spaces allocated within the new development to support its ongoing operation. In total, Lotus on Water Street proposes 117 car spaces, including 110 resident spaces and seven visitor bays, alongside 100 bicycle spaces.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="70cf07bc-4fd8-4e70-92dd-be8b21c4e4f0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20site.png?VersionId=txlxrJImM0Sm_vTzHVKh5DDUkyL_CiiA" /></p>

<p>The site sits within the Spring Hill East Precinct of the Spring Hill Neighbourhood Plan and is positioned around 650 metres from both Fortitude Valley Station and Exhibition Station. It is also within walking distance of the King Street precinct, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Herston Quarter and Victoria Park, which is earmarked to become a major venue precinct ahead of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.</p>

<p>Planning documents describe the location as a key gateway between Spring Hill and Fortitude Valley and highlight the area's increasing importance as new transport infrastructure and Olympic-related investment reshape Brisbane's inner north. The development team argues the project will contribute additional housing supply while activating a section of Water Street that has historically received less investment than other parts of the Valley.</p>

<p>Keylin has become increasingly active across Brisbane and southeast Queensland, assembling sites in strategic inner-city locations. They are currently selling and delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/oria-spring-hill-447-gregory-terrace-spring-hill-qld-4000">Oria Spring Hill</a>, just over 140 apartments due for completion in 2027.</p>


Keylin plans heritage-led Lotus on Water Street apartment development in Fortitude Valley

<p>Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.</p>

<p>The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.</p>

<p>One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.</p>

<p>"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.</p>

<p>"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]</p>

<p>The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.</p>

<p>PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.</p>

<p>"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]</p>

<p>Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.</p>

<p>Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.</p>

<p>The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.</p>

<p>"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.</p>

<p>"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]</p>

<p>Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.</p>

<p>Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]</p>


Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

<p>Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.</p>

<p>The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]</p>

<p>“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.</p>

<p>The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]</p>

<p>“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.</p>

<p>“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]</p>

<p>Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.</p>

<p>Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.</p>

<p>The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.</p>

<p>LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.</p>

<p>Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]</p>


Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

<p>Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?</p>

<p>Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.</p>

<p>NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.</p>

<p>“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.</p>

<p>"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.</p>

<p>Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.</p>

<p>“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”</p>

<p>Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.</p>

<p>“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”</p>

<p>She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.</p>

<p>“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”</p>


Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

<p>Sydney’s property market is known for high prices, competitive bidding, and mounting pressure on first home buyers. But change is on the horizon.</p>

<p>From late 2025, eligible first home buyers in New South Wales will have access to a new federal government initiative aimed at addressing affordability: the Help to Buy Scheme.&nbsp;</p>

<h2>What is the Help to Buy Scheme?</h2>

<p>The program introduces a shared equity model intended to reduce the upfront cost of entering the property market, particularly in high-demand urban areas such as Sydney.</p>

<p>The scheme operates under a shared ownership structure in which the federal government takes an equity stake of up to 40 per cent for new homes, or 30 per cent for existing dwellings. This arrangement allows eligible buyers to significantly reduce their loan size and avoid the added cost of Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI).</p>

<p>Under this model, purchasers can enter the property market with as little as a two per cent deposit, well below the traditional 10 to 20 per cent usually required. The government’s contribution is not a loan but a co-ownership stake in the property. As such, there is no interest or rent charged on its portion.</p>

<p>Because the government’s equity combined with the buyer’s deposit typically meets or exceeds the 20 per cent threshold, LMI does not apply. The remaining balance, generally between 60 and 70 per cent of the property’s value, is financed through a standard home loan with a participating lender.</p>

<p>The government's equity in the property remains in place until the buyer chooses to repay it voluntarily or until the property is sold. Buyers can buy back the government’s share over time, in increments of at least five per cent, depending on their financial situation.</p>

<p>There is no fixed repayment timeline, but the amount to be repaid will be based on the property's market value at the time of repayment, not the original purchase price.</p>

<h2>How do you qualify for the&nbsp;Help to Buy Scheme?</h2>

<p>To qualify for the Help to Buy Scheme, applicants must meet the following conditions:</p>

<ul>
	<li>Be an Australian citizen at least 18 years of age.</li>
	<li>Be a first-home buyer who does not currently own property.</li>
	<li>Intend to live in the property as their primary residence.</li>
	<li>Earn less than $100,000 per year for individuals, or $160,000 for couples.</li>
	<li>Purchase a property within the regional price caps, currently $950,000 in Sydney, though this is expected to rise to approximately $1.3 million ahead of the program’s launch.</li>
</ul>

<p>While the Help to Buy Scheme does not solve affordability challenges across the board, it does offer a more accessible pathway for a defined segment of the market, particularly younger buyers with moderate incomes who have been priced out of traditional lending routes.</p>

<p>The scheme is expected to commence in NSW in late 2025, as part of a national rollout.</p>


Under the new model, purchasers can enter the property market with as little as a two per cent deposit, well below the traditional 10 to 20 per cent usually required

Help to Buy Scheme: What first home buyers in NSW need to know

<p>The First Home Owners Grant (FHOG) is a government initiative designed to help eligible first-time home buyers by offering financial assistance towards the purchase or construction of a new home.</p>

<p>While the FHOG is a nationwide program, it is administered separately by each state and territory, meaning the eligibility criteria, grant amounts, and property requirements can vary depending on your location. This means that the amount available and the conditions attached to the grant will differ, so it is important to check the specific guidelines for your state or territory.</p>

<p>It’s important to note that the FHOG is just one of several incentives available to first home buyers. In most states and territories, the grant is not linked to stamp duty exemptions or concessions, with the exception of the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The FHOG is typically a one-off payment, reducing the overall cost of purchasing or building a new home before any stamp duty concessions are applied.</p>

<p>Below, we provide a breakdown of the First Home Owner Grants available across Australia, outlining the specific details for each state and territory.</p>

<h2>New South Wales First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="252" data-start="225">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes valued up to $600,000. For land purchases and owner-builders, the threshold extends to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong data-end="413" data-start="389">Stamp Duty Benefits:</strong> Provides full stamp duty exemption for homes valued up to $800,000, with concessions available for properties up to $1 million.</p>

<h2>Victoria South Wales First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Provides a $10,000 grant for first-home buyers purchasing or building new homes valued up to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Benefits</strong>: Offers full stamp duty exemption for properties up to $600,000, with concessions available up to $750,000.</p>

<h2>Queensland First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="920" data-start="893">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers $30,000 for contracts signed between 20 November 2023 and 30 June 2025. The FHOG applies to new homes valued up to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong data-end="1162" data-start="1135">Stamp Duty Concessions:</strong> Provides additional concessions for properties valued up to $800,000.</p>

<h2>Western Australia First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes valued up to $750,000 in the southern regions and up to $1 million in the northern regions.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Concessions:</strong> Available for homes valued up to $600,000 for transactions entered into on or after 9 May 2024.</p>

<h2>Australian Capital Territory First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="1617" data-start="1590">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Replaced by the Home Buyer Concession Scheme, offering full stamp duty concessions for eligible buyers.</p>

<h2>South Australia First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Provides up to $15,000 for new homes, including houses, apartments, and townhouses. As of 6 June 2024, there is no property value cap for eligibility.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Relief:</strong> Available for new homes and vacant land purchases.</p>

<h2>Tasmania First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant</strong>: Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes and off the plan purchases.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Exemption</strong>: Between 18 February 2024 and 30 June 2026, first home buyers of established homes valued up to $750,000 receive a full exemption on property transfer duty.</p>

<h2>Northern Territory First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> The Northern Territory provides a $10,000 grant for new homes only. Additional government grants and concessions are available for first home buyers.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Exemption</strong>: The only stamp duty exemption available to property buyers is the House and Land Package Exemption (HLPE).</p>

<p><em>Eligibility criteria and application processes differ across states. Prospective buyers should refer to their respective state revenue offices for full details on grant availability, conditions, and additional concessions.</em></p>


Every First Home Owner Grant for new property by state

<p>In the ever-evolving landscape of sustainable architecture and environmentally conscious design, systems and ratings in place can help determine the energy efficiency of residential buildings in Australia.</p>

<p>Australia has multiple building rating systems that evaluate energy efficiency and sustainability in existing and new building designs.</p>

<p>Some systems assess individual building components, while others provide an overall rating for the entire structure.</p>

<p>A rating system ensures that homes are comfortable and energy-efficient, whether you are buying, renovating, or building.</p>

<p>NatHERS (Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme) is a common way for new homes to meet energy efficiency requirements.</p>

<p>As new developments continue to shape the urban environment, understanding NatHERS ratings becomes essential for developers and homeowners. This article delves into the concept of NatHERS ratings, their significance, and how they contribute to creating energy-efficient homes.</p>

<h2>What is NatHERS?</h2>

<p>NatHERS is a national initiative implemented by the Australian government to promote energy efficiency in residential buildings. The scheme aims to provide a standardised method for assessing the thermal performance of homes, considering factors such as insulation, orientation, ventilation, and building materials.&nbsp;</p>

<p>NatHERS ratings are the most common way new homes meet the National Construction Code's (NCC's) minimum energy efficiency requirements.&nbsp;</p>

<p>NatHERS assessments provide thermal and whole-home ratings for new homes, townhouses, and apartments.</p>

<p>The rating helps evaluate the energy performance of buildings, guides homeowners and developers to make informed decisions about the energy efficiency of their properties, and encourages the construction of more sustainable, comfortable, and cost-effective homes.</p>

<h2>How NatHERS Ratings Work</h2>

<p>NatHERS ratings are determined through four accredited software tools (AccuRate, BERS Pro, FirstRate5, HERO) using a calculation engine CSIRO developed to predict building temperature based on various factors.</p>

<p>The tools can model complex effects of building mass, insulation, window size, and other elements.</p>

<p>The outcome is a star rating that reflects the building's overall thermal efficiency, indicating how well it can maintain a comfortable indoor temperature without excessive reliance on heating or cooling systems.</p>

<p>The star rating scale ranges from 0 to 10, with a 6-star rating being the minimum requirement for compliance with the National Construction Code (NCC).&nbsp;</p>

<p>Achieving a higher star rating demonstrates a commitment to energy efficiency and sustainability, as the building is better equipped to minimise its environmental impact and reduce long-term energy costs.</p>

<p>Anyone can use NatHERS tools, but accredited assessors can provide certified ratings and professional advice.</p>

<h2>Benefits of Higher NatHERS Ratings</h2>

<p><strong>Energy Efficiency:</strong> Buildings with higher NatHERS ratings are more energy-efficient, requiring less heating and cooling energy. This reduces the structure's carbon footprint and lowers occupants' energy bills.</p>

<p><strong>Cost Savings:</strong> Homes with higher NatHERS ratings are generally more energy-efficient, resulting in reduced energy consumption for heating and cooling. This translates to lower energy bills for homeowners, making sustainable living environmentally friendly and economically viable in the long run.</p>

<p><strong>Environmental Impact:</strong> Lower energy consumption directly translates to a reduced environmental impact. Buildings with higher NatHERS ratings contribute to the overall goal of mitigating climate change by lowering greenhouse gas emissions associated with heating and cooling systems.</p>

<p><strong>Improved Comfort: </strong>Buildings with high NatHERS ratings offer better thermal comfort to occupants. Proper insulation, well-designed ventilation, and optimal orientation maintain a consistent and comfortable indoor temperature, providing occupants with a more enjoyable and healthier space.</p>

<p><strong>Market Value and Desirability:</strong> Higher NatHERS ratings can enhance the market value of a property. As energy efficiency becomes a more significant consideration for homebuyers, a well-rated building may attract a premium price and stand out in the real estate market.</p>

<p><strong>Compliance with Building Codes:</strong> NatHERS ratings are a vital component of the National Construction Code (NCC), and compliance with these ratings is often a mandatory requirement for new developments. Local councils and planning authorities may set minimum energy efficiency standards that must be met to obtain development approval.</p>


The Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme (NatHERS) is a crucial initiative shaping the future of energy-efficient, resilient, and cost-effective homes. With its recent upgrades, NatHERS has evolved into a world-leading tool for the building sector, supporting the global commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Staff Writer

What is a NatHERS rating in new off the plan apartment developments?

<p>Mixed-use developments have gained significant popularity across Australia in recent years due to their unique blend of residential, commercial, and recreational spaces.</p>

<p>Unlike traditional single-purpose developments, mixed-use projects offer a harmonious integration of various functions within a single locale.</p>

<p>Residential units seamlessly coexist with commercial establishments, retail outlets, dining venues, entertainment hubs, and recreational facilities, with the combination not only enhances convenience but also fosters a vibrant lifestyle and a sense of community.</p>

<h3>Convenience and accessibility</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments are designed with convenience in mind. They often integrate residential units with commercial spaces, retail outlets, restaurants, and recreational facilities, creating a self-contained community.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=114215 project_image_fid=204874]</p>

<p>The proximity allows residents to enjoy the convenience of having essential amenities and services within walking distance. Whether it's grabbing a cup of coffee, going grocery shopping, or accessing healthcare services, everything is conveniently located, saving residents time and effort.</p>

<h3>Vibrant lifestyle and community</h3>

<p>One of the major advantages of mixed-use developments is the vibrant lifestyle they offer. With a diverse range of amenities and communal spaces, residents have ample opportunities to interact, socialise, and build a sense of community.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107714 project_image_fid=214122]</p>

<p>The presence of parks, community centres, and shared spaces fosters a lively atmosphere, encouraging residents to engage in various activities and events. The vibrant lifestyle within these developments creates a unique sense of belonging and camaraderie among the residents.</p>

<h3>Potential for higher rental yields and property value appreciation</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments tend to attract a broad range of tenants and buyers due to their versatile nature. This high demand can result in higher rental yields for investors and potentially lead to property value appreciation over time.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=139989 project_image_fid=212887]</p>

<p>The integration of commercial and retail spaces attracts businesses, which can provide a stable rental income stream. Additionally, the popularity of mixed-use developments often drives up property values, making them a potentially lucrative investment in the long term.</p>

<h3>Enhanced security and maintenance</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments typically have comprehensive security measures in place. With controlled access points, CCTV surveillance, and professional security staff, residents can enjoy enhanced safety and peace of mind.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108019 project_image_fid=212658]</p>

<p>Additionally, these developments often have dedicated maintenance teams responsible for the upkeep of common areas, landscaping, and infrastructure. This ensures that the overall appearance and functionality of the development are well-maintained, creating a pleasant living environment for residents.</p>

<h3>Live-work-play balance</h3>

<p>One of the key attractions of mixed-use developments is the ability to achieve a desirable live-work-play balance. The integration of residential and commercial spaces allows residents to live closer to their workplaces, reducing commuting time and improving work-life balance.</p>

<p>The proximity to various amenities and recreational facilities encourages an active and healthy lifestyle. Residents can easily access fitness centres, parks, restaurants, and entertainment options, all within the same development, leading to a more fulfilling and convenient way of life.</p>


alisonwarters@gmail.com

The top five reasons to buy in a mixed-use development

<p style="line-height: 1.38;">When buying a property, everyone needs to be aware of the additional costs that come as part of the buying process.</p>

<p style="line-height: 1.38;">Often the largest outlay, after the deposit which goes to the bank, is stamp duty.</p>

<h2 style="line-height: 1.38;">What is Stamp Duty?</h2>

<p>Stamp duty is an extra tax to pay the government when you buy land, a property, and other certain assets.</p>

<p>It happens when the legal ownership is transferred. It can also be known as property transfer duty or transfer duty.</p>

<p style="line-height: 1.38;"><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="415" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/C32BWkB5--c" title="YouTube video player" width="660"></iframe></p>

<h2>Who pays Stamp Duty?</h2>

<p>In some circumstances, you may get an exemption. For some states, you won’t have to pay for stamp duty if you are a first home buyer or a pensioner for houses under a particular price. There are also stamp duty concessions, where you may be entitled to a discount.</p>

<h2>How much does Stamp Duty cost?</h2>

<p>Each state has different rules which affect how much you need to pay. These rules can affect the rate you pay, and the timeframe you will need to pay in. Before you buy land or a property, make sure you check the up-to-date information for your state’s stamp duty.</p>

<p>You can use a free stamp duty calculator online to see approximately how much you’ll need to pay. Find out if you’re eligible for an exemption by enquiring on a project via Urban!</p>

<p>Overall, the stamp duty you need to pay will depend on:</p>

<ul>
	<li aria-level="1">How much your land/property is worth</li>
	<li aria-level="1">Where your land/property is located</li>
	<li aria-level="1">What type of land/property it is</li>
</ul>

<p style="line-height:1.38">Want to find out more? <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@UrbanAustralia?utm_source=YouTube&amp;utm_medium=Video&amp;utm_campaign=Subscribe&amp;utm_id=Subscribe">Subscribe to our YouTube channel</a> for more property videos.</p>


Ellen Walker

Off-the-plan property explained: What is stamp duty?

<html><body>
<p>Success in real estate belongs to the independent thinkers. And that means the select few.</p>
<p>The most predictable market intelligence of the past few weeks is that consumer sentiment about real estate has weakened.</p>
<p>Given the herd mentality in Australian real estate, and the absence of independent thought and action, I would expect sentiment to mirror media reporting trends. If media keeps reporting that “the Australian property boom” is over, I would expect a survey of public sentiment to reflect that.</p>
<p>And, lately, it has. According to the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment, public opinion about whether it’s a good time to buy, and about price expectations, has weakened. This apparent dissipation of confidence has coincided with mainstream media deciding that the new core storyline is that the so-called national property boom is over.</p>
<p>What they really mean is that the Sydney boom is over and that is reflected in the generalised national figures much beloved by lazy journalists.</p>
<p>This new and recurrent theme in mainstream media is now being mirrored in responses to surveys about real estate.</p>
<p>It tells us that the average citizen struggles with independent thought. Most are pack animals and more likely to take action because everyone else is than because it makes sense. </p>
<p>Sometimes it feels like all Australians are connected to a central brain – and not a particularly smart one, either.</p>
<p>Another recent poll that fits this theme is the NAB’s quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey. The generalised results are that sentiment has weakened and people expect price growth to be less spectacular than the past couple of years.</p>
<p>Significant? Not at all. It’s people parroting what they read in newspapers. Will those expectations be marched by outcomes? No it will not - growth won’t stop, but the focus of growth will switch from Sydney to other areas.</p>
<p>While media focused on this downturn in overall generalised simplified public expectations, without segmenting for local differences of which there are many, there are many other things in the NAB quarterly report that are far more significant. </p>
<p>These are matters of fact, rather than impressions, expectations or predictions.</p>
<p>The NAB report is one of the few that realistically quantifies buying activity by first-timers. It finds that this market segment has increased recently - 26.2% of sales of established properties are made to first-time buyers, compared to 23.7% in the June Quarter. And 28.9% of sales of new properties are being made to first-time buyers.</p>
<p>The NAB report, unlike other less credible sources like the ABS, takes into account that not all first-timers buy homes. A rising number buy investment properties as a first purchase. According to NAB, 15.7% of established properties and 16.4% of new properties are being sold to first-timers as home-buyers. In addition, 10.5% of established properties and 12.5% of new properties are being sold to first-time buyers as investors.</p>
<p>They’re a big chunk of the market, but for many media outlets it’s an inconvenient truth because it contradicts the beloved storyline about the Great Australian Dream being dead because youngsters are priced out of the market.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>As an aside, research from Mortgage Choice has found that most first-home buyers are comfortable with their mortgages, with almost two-thirds saying they could accommodate interest rate rises of at least two percentage points (a quarter of them could cope with a rise of four points).</p>
<p>The NAB report also provides a good snapshot of the activity of foreign investors. It shows that overall they remain quite insignificant as a share of the overall market. They are most active in buying new property, where they account for 16% of sales.</p>
<p>They are most prominent, and this tells its own tale, in the apartment market, especially in Victoria (which means inner-city Melbourne). In Victoria, foreign buyers account for almost a third of all new unit sales.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>It confirms that developers are flooding inner-city apartment markets with new product because they believe they can sell any surplus stock overseas (which means Asia, especially China and Hong Kong). </p>
<p>Some developers are not bothering to market locally but heading directly overseas to sell their off-the-plan stock.</p>
<p>As time goes by and more projects flood this market, I would expect the foreign purchase component to rise. It’s a warning to Australian investors and home-buyers to steer clear.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

A warning to Australian investors and home buyers: Terry Ryder

<html><body>
<p><span>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released quarterly Consumer Price Index data for September 2015. The data showed that headline inflation was recorded at 0.5% for the quarter and was 1.5% higher over the year.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-14.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-14.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>As the above chart shows, at 1.5%, headline inflation is below the Reserve Bank’s target range of between 2.0% and 3.0% per annum.  While the headline figure is important, the RBA also likes to look at measures of underlying inflation which exclude some of the more volatile items.  Both measures of underlying inflation; the trimmed mean and the weighted median were recorded at a lower 0.3% over the quarter and have increased by 2.1% and 2.2% respectively over the past year.  These annual increases place underlying inflation within the lower band of the RBA’s target range, it would also indicate that if the RBA felt it necessary they have scope to reduce official interest rates.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-23.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-23.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>The effects of inflation are also an important factor to consider for housing markets.  Although we generally talk about home value growth in nominal terms, real or inflation-adjusted home value changes are also important to consider.  Over the 12 months to September 2015, combined capital city home values have increased by a nominal rate of 11.0% however, in real terms that figure drops to 9.4%.  The above chart shows the annual rate of value change across the individual capital cities in both nominal and real terms.  It highlights once again the significant difference in value growth conditions in Sydney and Melbourne relative to the other capital cities.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-32.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-32.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>In real terms home values have only increased over the past five years in Sydney and Melbourne.  On a compound annual basis, falls have been recorded at -1.7%pa in Brisbane, -2.0%pa in Adelaide, -1.5%pa in Perth, -3.5%pa in Hobart, -3.9%pa in Darwin and -1.4%pa in Canberra.  Real home values have increased at a rate of 4.9%pa over the past five years in Sydney and 1.7%pa in Melbourne.  Over the past decade, real home values have fallen in Hobart and have risen at a rate of less than 2%pa in Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-4.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-4.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>To further highlight the differences across the cities it is valuable to have a look at nominal and real value growth across the capital cities since 2008.  Between March and December of 2008 combined capital city home values fell by a nominal -6.1% or a real -8.3%.  On the back of aggressive interest rate cuts and stimulus in the form of the Boost to the First Home Owners Grant, values began to rise from that point.  Although combined capital city home values have increased since 2008, this is largely by virtue of strong value growth in Sydney and Melbourne.  In fact, real home values are currently lower in Brisbane (-5.2%), Adelaide (-5.4%), Perth (-3.0%) and Hobart (-16.1%) than they were at the end of 2008, almost eight years of no real value growth in these cities.  Real value rises have been moderate since 2008 in Darwin (5.0%) and Canberra (4.1%) and substantially greater in Sydney (51.4%) and Melbourne (41.9%).</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-5.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The above chart looks at the change in real home values on a quarterly basis since their previous peak.  What is immediately noticeable is that Sydney (+24.3%) and Melbourne (+8.9%) are the only cities in which values are now higher than their previous peaks.  The journey to get back above their peaks was somewhat different, Sydney took 41 quarters to eclipse its March 2004 peak while Melbourne took 19 quarters to eclipse its September 2010 peak.  Across each remaining capital city, real home values are below their previous peaks, the figures for each city are: -11.8% in Brisbane, -10.0% in Adelaide, -13.0% in Perth, -21.3% in Hobart, -17.9% in Darwin and -8.1% in Canberra.  For Brisbane, Perth and Hobart in particular the journey back to the previous peak has proven to be long with these markets previously peaking in March 2008, September 2007 and December 2007 respectively.</p>
<p>As values continue to rise in Sydney and Melbourne and show falls or moderate nominal growth in other capital cities, the affordability gap will continue to widen.  At some point these other capital city markets will once again become attractive to buyers.  Importantly this won’t be driven by affordability factors alone; employment opportunities, amenity and local infrastructure, amongst other factors, will be important factors.  The data also highlights that long periods of value falls do happen in the Australian housing market and clearly housing is not a one-way bet.  The broader statistics do tend to be overshadowed by the impact of the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets who are substantially bigger than all other capital cities.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Real home values remain below previous peak: Cameron Kusher

<html><body>
<p>Property investors across Australia must be cursing themselves because they didn’t find out about the great Clayton Bay property boom of 2015 before it was too late. </p>
<p>They could’ve had 50% capital gains in a single year if they’d been more on the ball.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Others will be giving themselves an upper cut because they overlooked the hotspot potential of Canyonleigh and missed out on $300,000 in overnight equity.</p>
<p>Still others will be demanding answers from their advisers who failed to alert them to the 34% rental yields on offer in Mission Beach. How could they have missed that?</p>
<p>50% price rises in 12 months? Rental yields above 30%? Are such things possible?</p>
<p>In reality, no. They’re the product of computer glitches, careless research companies and media that doesn’t give a damn.</p>
<p>Much of this startling misinformation about booms that never were comes to the Australian public via a relatively new part of the property reporting landscape – the online “magazines” with daily bulletins.</p>
<p>Most of these products, which purport to be information services, are anything but that. The content is created by recycling press releases and contributed blogs. Most of it is propaganda from organisations with a vested interest in their message or the outpourings of publicity-addicted research companies that believe media will publish anything labeled “research”, particularly if it contains a list of the top five/ten of almost anything.</p>
<p>They regularly publish lists from researchers who seek publicity without caring too much about the data quality.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Examples are “Top 20 locations with the highest yields” and “Locations where values have risen 40% in 12 months”.</p>
<p>These lists are the worst kind of nonsense, because most of the entries are computer-generated statistical aberrations – often because a small sales sample means the median price is meaningless.</p>
<p>Media reports a 40% rise in the median price as a 40% rise in values and it’s nothing of the sort. Usually it’s a mathematical glitch and the researchers don’t care enough to clean up their data.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>A recent example declared that the capital growth king of the nation, with a 49% rise in prices over 12 months, was Clayton Bay.</p>
<p>Where? I hear you ask. Clayton Bay is a town of just 200 residents near Hindmarsh Island south of Adelaide. Its property values have <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">not</span></strong> increased 49% - a statistical glitch created by a very small sales sample (one sale per month, on average) has produced a 49% rise in the median house price.</p>
<p>Close behind of this fool’s gold list was Canyonleigh in the NSW southern highlands which, according to one breathless media report, “achieved 49.13% growth on a median house price of $857,500”.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Canyonleigh, like Clayton Bay, is so small it doesn’t have a property market worthy of the name. It has insufficient sales to produce price data that makes any sense.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Every other entry on this list was similar. The information was worse than worthless.</p>
<p>But it gets worse.</p>
<p>Did you know you could get 37% rental returns on residential properties in Mission Beach, Queensland? According to media (quoting figures from the same research firm), you can.</p>
<p>So why aren’t investors stampeding to Mission Beach to snap up every home in sight? Because it’s nonsense – yet another computer-generated statistical anomaly.</p>
<p>This blunder is created by recording the peak season rents achieved by holiday lettings and not telling the computer that properties are vacant for most of the year. If those peak holiday season rates were achieved 52 weeks of the year, the rental return might indeed be 30%-plus. But they’re not.</p>
<p>What’s the true median rental yield for Mission Beach? According to more reliable research sources, it’s 4.9%.</p>
<p>And would you want to buy there? Prices have been falling (a lot) for the past three years and it takes six months to sell the average property.</p>
<p>Lovely place to visit but you wouldn’t want to invest there.</p>
<p>Every location on the national list of best places to buy for the best rental yields was, yet again, a furphy. It makes for entertaining reading – as long as you understand it’s rubbish.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>But, week after week, the online “news services” pump out this nonsense as credible information. So I have to wonder how many people read it, believe it – and act on it.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
</body></html>

Property investors must ignore nonsense research data: Terry Ryder

<html><body><div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>The final auction clearance rate last week fell to 64.9%, down from 67.4% the previous week and similarly, lower than one year ago (68.1%).</span></p>
<p><span> The fall in capital city clearance rate can be largely attributed to a weaker result across Sydney last week, the second largest capital city auction market.</span></p>
<p><span>Last week was Melbourne’s busiest for the year, with 1,690 auctions held, however given the Melbourne cup next Tuesday, auction activity across the city this weekend is set to be somewhat quieter, with just 621 scheduled for the week. Melbourne was the strongest performing capital city market last week, with 69.7% of reported auctions successful and CoreLogic RP Data estimates over 1,150 transactions took place as a result of the cities auction activity.</span></p>
<p><span>In Sydney, last week there were 1,024 auctions with a clearance rate of just 61.3%, far from the strength seen earlier this year, when for 22 consecutive weeks the city recorded a clearance rate of 80% or above. Despite the weaker result last week, there are 1,450 Sydney homes scheduled for auction this week, more than at the same time last year (1,259) and the highest number of weekly auctions seen since the final week of March this year.</span></p>
<p><span>Although auction activity is set to slow down temporarily this week in Melbourne, the same cannot be said for Adelaide, where there will be 155 auctions this week, compared to 103 last week, Canberra, with 131 scheduled compared to 58 last week and Perth, up from 33 last week to 49 this week.</span></p>
<p><span>Brisbane is the only other capital city where auction volumes will be lower this week, down to 197 from 223 last week, which was the busiest week for auctions across the city so far this year. Despite the increased activity, Brisbane’s final auction clearance rate last week showed that less than half (48.8%) of the auctions resulted in a transaction.</span></p>
<p><span>The lower volumes across Melbourne this week have added some more variety into the list of the busiest individual suburbs for auctions, as opposed to last week when each of the suburbs were located in Melbourne.</span></p>
<ul>
<li><span>-  20 auctions in Reservoir (Vic) </span></li>
<li><span>-  18 auctions in Bellevue Hill (NSW) </span></li>
<li><span>-  16 auctions in Paddington (NSW) </span></li>
<li><span>-  15 auctions in Coogee (NSW), Killara (NSW) and St Ives (NSW) </span></li>
</ul>
<p><span> </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div></body></html>

smiller-vwPjRHTkST

Melbourne’s auction volumes show a temporary fall: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

<html><body>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div id="post-body-5860701746523950073" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>When it comes to property investment I generally favour the largest capital city housing markets, which in Australia tend to have more diversified economies, the greatest population and employment growth, tighter supply, and less prime location land available for release. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>One of the <em>regional</em> success stories of the past half decade has been a town - or a "city" as you would say in Australia - that I went to visit this weekend.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With a population of around 162,000 it is the 16th largest city in Australia, and the largest inland city after the nation's capital, Canberra...</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><span>The city I am referring to, of course, is <strong>Toowoomba</strong> in Queensland, to the west of Brisbane.</span></div>
<div><span><br>Queensland is the one state in Australia which has a number of sizeable regional cities, and there are four others that are larger again than Toowoomba: Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Townsville, and arguably Cairns (depending upon where you draw the boundary). </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span>The <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2014/07/x" target="_blank">Grattan Institute</a> found in a 2014 study that Australia's capital cities have become vital to economic activity, driving most of the economy in every state .</span></div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span>For regional centres, Grattan found that it is their proximity to the CBD which largely drives their fortunes and thus their respective rates of economic growth. </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span>According to Grattan's research, regional centres stationed less than 150km from the CBD are growing at a considerably faster pace than those located further away.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>This in turn suggests that the best placed regional centres over the long term might include cities such as Toowoomba which is positioned approximately 125km from Brisbane. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Other centres which sit close to their respective capitals include Geelong (around 75km from Melbourne), Newcastle &amp; the Hunter (Newcastle is located approximately 160km from Sydney), and Wollongong (85km to the south of Sydney). </span></div>
<div><span><br>The end of the mining construction boom will lead to desperate times for some regional centres, but the unemployment rate in Toowoomba has remained relatively low thanks to its diversified economy, which includes defence, agriculture, food processing, energy resources, retail and construction.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>There are some ongoing wages cuts disputes happening in the region, but overally the economy has held up relatively well. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Toowoomba a regional success story: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>A stunning research note from Cameron Kusher of <em>CoreLogic-RP Data</em> which revealed that while median vacant land prices continued to rise very strongly in Australian capital cities over the past year, regional land prices fell by -3.4% to $156,500.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In particular land values in Sydney (+16.6%) and Melbourne (+14.5%) have exploded over the past year.<br><br>
</div>
<div>And while demand for housing is presently low in Western Australia, median land prices in Perth continued to escalate very significantly (+10.3%), which in turn will force up the cost of new housing. Today, Sydney and Perth have the most expensive land prices in Australia. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unlike in the capital cities regional lot sizes have actually expanded by +8.3% over the past year according to Kusher, making the decline in median land prices all the more notable.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Driven by rapid expansion in household debt regional property prices had a relatively strong run in the lead up to the financial crisis, but this trend has evidently now slowed.<br><br>While a 750sqm lot in a capital city 25 years ago would have cost you $50,000 according to Kusher, today it would set you back $417,800...and rising.</div>
<div>
<br>Regional land values are therefore reportedly some 39% cheaper than in the capital cities, the largest such differential in since 1990.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Interestingly over the long haul land prices have appreciated at a very similar percentage annual rate between capital cities and the regions.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This implies in turn that the best performing property types have been those with a high percentage land value.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>More remote properties - where the land component comprises only a small part of the asset value - remain cheap precisely because the value is all in the <em>building, </em>and not the land.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Location, location, location" as the old mantra goes.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Why is this happening?</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Why are regional prices not keeping pace? And particularly why has this become the case now?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is a complex question, but a major reason for the strength in capital city land values is likely to be the restricted supply of new land made available for development in the congested capital cities where population growth and therefore underlying demand is strong.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Regional population growth has been considerably weaker ex-Queensland, and there is generally speaking more land available for development.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Since the financial crisis there has been another key driver for the larger capitals: jobs growth. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The ABS released its Detailed Labour Force figures for August 2015 today which underscored some important trends.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Cities creating jobs</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>While regional employment in the two most populous states was growing reasonably robustly until the financial crisis, regional employment growth has now slowed, with the mining capex cliff now adding to the drag in some regions.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Looking below at cumulative employment growth since Febuary 2007, we can see why both Sydney and Melbourne have been labelled by the Reserve Bank as "self-sustaining job magnets", creating +350,000 new jobs apiece.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The combined cities and towns of regional New South Wales has created a fair level of new employment (+100,000), particularly in the Hunter, Newcastle and the Illawarra. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, over the same time period regional Victoria has by comparison created almost no additional employment (+10,000) on a net basis.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div class="separator">An unfortunate corrollary of this is while there was always a level of frictional unemployment in the lead up to 2007, there had at times been a job for almost everyone who wanted one.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Sadly this is no longer the case, and regional unemployment in particular has been pulsing higher. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF8.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF8.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Employment growth</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Not dissimilarly while Greater Brisbane has now added +23,000 jobs over the year to August 2015, regional Queensland employment has declined by -27,000, though there may be some debate over the "quality" of new jobs created. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">While some revisions have been made to population assumptions relating to Western Australia, total employment in Perth has continued to rise modestly.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Unfortunately total employment in Adelaide has declined over the past <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">five</span></strong> years (-2,700), with more challenges in the pipeline in the manufacturing space and rising unemployment.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Unemployment rates</span></strong><br><br><div>Smoothing the volatile monthly unemployment readings below on a rolling annual basis we can see that Greater Sydney remains the best placed economy, the unusual labour market of Darwin aside.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>New South Wales also has the lowest level of mortgage delinquency rates according the latest figures from Moody's.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Furthermore, unemployment rates are now trending down in Greater Brisbane, Melbourne and Hobart.</div>
<br><span>On the other hand, unemployment is clearly rising in Perth and Adelaide.</span>
</div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF5.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF5.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><span>Adelaide is now recording an unemployment rate reading of 7.9 per cent which is dragging up the 12 month moving average.</span></div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF7.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF7.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<div>On the other hand Greater Brisbane has now recorded two surprisingly low readings of just 5.2 per cent over the last three months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Realistically the true unemployment rate in Greater Brisbane is higher than that, but nevertheless this is heartening to see for the Queensland capital. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

Regional land prices are falling: Pete Wargent

<html><body><div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span>This week’s preliminary clearance rate of 70.7% across a total of 2,064 reported auctions represents the third lowest clearance rate so far this year across the combined capital cities, down further from last week when the final clearance rate was recorded at 71.2%. </span></span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span>It will be interesting to see if there is any upwards revision as the remaining results are reported. There were 2,493 capital city auctions held this week, compared to 2,654 last week and 2,530 at the same time last year. Over the past eight weeks, this is the fourth week where more than 2,400 auctions have been held across the combined capitals, while over the same 8 week period one year ago, there was only one week where this volume of auctions was seen.</span> </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Capital-city.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Capital-city.jpg" alt="" width="845" height="635"></p>
<p><strong>Melbourne’s</strong><span> preliminary clearance rate this week is 73.3 per cent, down from 74.3 per cent the previous week and higher than one year ago, when 72.1 per cent of auctions were successful. 1,091 residential properties went to auction in Melbourne this week, showing volumes are slightly lower than over the previous week (1,189) and one year ago (1,221). This week, Melbourne’s strongest performing sub-region was the Outer East, where 78.4 per cent of the 74 reported auctions were sold. On the other end of the scale was the Mornington Peninsula, where a lower 60.6 per cent of the 33 reported auctions cleared.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Melbourne.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Melbourne.jpg" alt="" width="912" height="611"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>In </span><strong>Sydney</strong><span>, there has been little change after recording the lowest clearance rate for the year over the previous week at 73.1 per cent, with preliminary results showing a clearance rate of 73.2 per cent. Sydney’s auction market has consistently been performing at a level lower than the strengths seen at the start of the year, when, for 22 consecutive weeks, the clearance rate for the city was above the 80 per cent mark. In saying that, the number of auctions held across the city has been trending up, with 1,008 auctions held this week and 1,075 last week. One year ago, Sydney’s auction clearance rate was 78 per cent across 883 auctions. The North Sydney and Hornsby sub-region had the highest volume of auctions this week, with 183 held and a preliminary clearance rate of 76.8 per cent.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Sydney.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Sydney.jpg" alt="" width="820" height="554"></p>
<p><span>Across </span><strong>Brisbane</strong><span>, 108 auctions results have been reported this week, with 52.8 per cent successful. This week, 144 auctions were held across the city, compared to 179 last week, when the clearance rate was 50.3 per cent and 154 at the same time last year, when the clearance rate was significantly lower, at 38.9 per cent. 29 </span><strong>Gold</strong><span> </span><strong>Coast</strong><span> auction results have been reported so far this week, with a preliminary clearance rate of 41.4 per cent.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Brisbane.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Brisbane.jpg" alt="" width="821" height="551"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>Adelaide’s</strong><span> preliminary clearance rate was 71.4 per cent this week, up from 62.4 per cent the previous week and 68.4 per cent last year. The number of auctions held across the city increased on a week-on-week basis, from 89 last week to 99 this week, while Adelaide’s auction market was busier at the same time last year (129).</span></p>
<p><span>Click to enlarge</span></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Adelaide.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="545"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>30 <strong>Perth</strong> auctions were held this week with a preliminary clearance rate of 37.5 per cent, compared to 54.2 per cent the previous week and 51.2 per cent one year ago.</p>
<p>There were 116 auctions across <strong>Canberra</strong> this week, compared to 79 last week and 80 one year ago. Preliminary results show that 57.0 per cent of reported results were successful this week, down from 65.2 per cent last week and 58.2 per cent one year ago.</p>
<p>So far this week, 4 of the 5 <strong>Tasmanian</strong> auctions have been reported, with only 1 successful result.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div></body></html>

More than 2,000 auctions held across combined capital cities: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

<html><body>
<p>There’s been a number of articles this week about the peak of the Sydney market. It does look as if the market is at or slightly past its peak however, it is important to thoroughly investigate how the market is tracking currently.</p>
<p><strong>Values</strong></p>
<p>Sydney home values have increased by 17.6% over the 12 months to August 2015 and by 14.0% over the first 8 months of 2015. Sydney home values have been trending higher since they reached a low point in May 2012 and since that time Sydney home values have increased by a total of 49.5%. To put that growth in perspective, a home worth $500,000 in May 2012 would now be worth $747,704. The data presented shows that home values have been trending higher at a fairly rapid pace however, more recent data may point to a slowing of the rate of growth. Home values rose by 1.1% over the month of August however, data for September is showing a much more sluggish rate of growth in home values with values -0.3% lower over the twenty eight days to 20 September.</p>
<p><strong>Sales transactions</strong></p>
<p>Unfortunately sales transactions are not a timely indicator of the market’s performance due to delays in receiving the full population of settled sales transactions.  Furthermore, off-the-plan sales are entered into sales counts at their contract date however, the record is not received until settlement which could be several years down the track for large projects. As a result, when you have heightened off-the-plan sales activity as we currently do, unit sales in particular are inclined to be undercounted.  The latest sales data to June 2015 shows that over the second quarter of the year there were 23,432 sales. Compared to the same quarter in 2014, house sales were -5.5% lower and unit sales were -16.5% lower.</p>
<p><strong>Time on market</strong></p>
<p>At the end of July 2015 the typical Sydney home was selling after just 25 days. At CoreLogic RP Data we’ve been tracking the time on market since the beginning of 2005 and this is the quickest rate of sale recorded over this period. The combination of strong value growth and a rapid rate of sale suggests that demand is still quite strong across the city.</p>
<p><strong>Auction clearance rates</strong></p>
<p>The preliminary auction clearance rate for Sydney last week was 73.2% which was virtually unchanged from the final auction clearance rate the previous week.  Importantly, in most instances the final auction clearance rates are revised lower. Auction clearance rates have shifted from their peak of almost 90% in April of this year to their current level.  At the same time a year ago clearance rates were recorded at a higher 78%. It is important to note that over recent weeks the number of properties being taken to auction has been significantly higher than the number taken to auction a year ago. Nevertheless it is clear that the auction market which represents slightly more than a quarter of all Sydney home sales has weakened over recent months and has not rebounded so far during the Spring Selling Season.</p>
<p><strong>Property listings</strong></p>
<p>The latest weekly listings data which tracks houses, units and vacant land for sale across Sydney shows that over the past 4 weeks there were 8,525 new listings and 20,121 total listings.  New listings are now at their highest level since the week ended 30/11/14 and total listings are at their highest level since the week ended 14/12/14. Comparing listings to levels at the same time a year ago shows that new listings are currently 19.0% higher and total listings are up 5.0%. In the early part of the Spring Selling Season there is much more stock available for sale in Sydney than there was at the same time a year ago. Heightened stock levels at a time when auction markets are softening and value growth has shown some early signs of slowing may contribute to a further slowdown in the rate of capital gain over the coming months.  This is due to the fact that active buyers are afforded more choice and may not have to pay such a price premium to secure a home.</p>
<p><strong>Mortgage Activity</strong></p>
<p>The CoreLogic RP Data Mortgage Index tracks pre-purchasing activity and has shown some clear weakness over recent weeks. While the Index remains at quite high levels it has fallen by -2.0% over the past couple of weeks at a time when, seasonally, the trend should typically be rising. At the same time last year the index had risen by 1.2% over the previous two weeks. With mortgages, particularly investment mortgages becoming more difficult to obtain, we are potentially seeing the first signs that this segment of the market it is starting to slow resulting in an easing of demand.</p>
<p><strong>Building approvals</strong></p>
<p>The latest building approvals data for July 2015 shows that there was a record high 5,159 dwelling approvals over the month. This was comprised of 1,655 house approvals and 3,504 unit approvals.  Over the 12 months to July 2015 there have been 15,213 house approvals and a record high 30,921 unit approvals. Sydney has consistently approved more units for construction than houses since early 1993. With a record pipeline of new housing stock it is going some way to alleviating housing shortages across the city. It also affords buyers much more choice when they are looking to purchase a new home</p>
<p><strong>Housing finance</strong></p>
<p>The latest housing finance data for New South Wales to July 2015 shows that demand from the owner occupier segment is starting to ramp-up while investor demand is starting to wane. Importantly, owner occupier demand includes refinances so if we look exclusively at new lending (excluding refinances) we also see owner occupier demand ramping up while investor demand seems to be waning. Investors still account for the greatest proportion of new lending (58.0%) however, two months ago investors accounted for a record-high 62.4% of all new mortgage lending in NSW.</p>
<p><strong>Rents and yields</strong></p>
<p>Over the 12 months to August 2015, rental rates across Sydney have increased by 2.3% which is the slowest annual rate of rental growth since May 2013. With rental growth sluggish and value growth remaining very strong, gross rental yields across Sydney have shifted to record low levels. Yields were recorded at 3.3% in August 2015 which is the softest yields on record. We’ve already mentioned that investor activity across NSW has recently hit record highs and remains elevated. It appears that many investors are having little regard for rental returns and are largely focussing on the future capital growth potential and the subsequent benefits from a negative gearing strategy.</p>
<p>Although the data is still generally undoubtedly strong, it appears there are signs that the market could be showing the first sign that growth rates are peaking. Record high new housing supply at a time when mortgage demand is seemingly slowing along with auction clearance rates and listings are rising points to potentially softer value growth conditions for the city. While we expect the rate of growth will likely start to slow, the significant stimulus of low mortgage rates is expected to ensure that home values continue to rise albeit at a more moderate pace.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

What is going on in the Sydney housing market? Cameron Kusher

<html><body>
<div>The ABS will release its Household Finance &amp; Wealth data series for Q2 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I am expecting to see aggregate net Australian household wealth well over +55% higher than its Q3 2009 nadir, which would be representative of a remarkable recovery.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said, in the period since 30 June there has been something of a king hit to household balance sheets with the ASX 200 index (XJO) having nosedived below 5,000 after dropping by a further 105.5 points or 2% today.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As recently as April the market had been threatening to surge above 6,000.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yet as things stand the "XJO 6000" caps have been gently stowed away (back into cold storage with the "FTSE 7000" scarves!) and the bourse is instead shaping to return to the same levels we saw a decade ago.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/24/imageChart.axd.gif" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/09/24/imageChart.axd.gif" alt=""> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

Expect the ABS to show recovery figures: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p><span>Australia's four most populous states accounted for a thumping 93.4% of Australia's </span>population growth<span> over the year to Q1 2015, with New South Wales (its total population increasing to 7,597,000), Victoria (5,915,000), Queensland (4,767,000) and Western Australia (2,587,000) being the four states in question.</span><br><br><span>You could more or less chuck a soggy beach towel over the rest. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/25/B1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/25/B1.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>The greatest gains in headcount across the most recent 12 month reporting period were seen in New South Wales (+101,200), Victoria (+97,500) and Queensland (+61,100), and as we've already seen that the recent "births" figures are almost certainly materially </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/population-growth-surprise" target="_blank">understated</a><span> for the two most populous states. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/25/b2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/25/b2.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<div>Population growth rates have slowed dramatically in the resources states and territories, including in Queensland (+1.3 per cent), and particularly in Western Australia (+1.4 per cent).<br><br>Meanwhile population growth in the Northern Territory has dried up almost completely (+0.2 per cent), and with net interstate migration away from the Top End reaching its most rapid level on record (-3,400) population 'growth' is set to turn negative in due course. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Population growth has also slowed in another state which is suffering from a "brain drain" - South Australia - where net interstate migration of negative -3,000 has helped to pull the rate of population growth down to just +0.8 per cent, though it still needs to slow further.<br><br>The 'Festival State' has not created a single full time job on a net basis since 2007 and the result has been a horribly increasing rate of unemployment.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/25/b2-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/25/b2-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Components of growth</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Net overseas migration remains very strong in New South Wales (+67,000) and Victoria (+55,000), but has clearly slowed in the resources states as the mining construction boom begins to fade into the rear view mirror.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/25/B5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/25/B5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The most interesting trend for me over the last few years has been to note just how few people have been choosing to leave Sydney and Melbourne for cheaper or warmer climes (refer to the net interstate migration chart below), instead opting to stay put for the relative security of their capital city employment.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said, I do know more than a few people - including myself, in fact - who have recently decided to relocate from Sydney to Brisbane.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Brisbane is not only comparatively inexpensive, it also has a warmer climate and is considerably less crowded - and thus if the jobs market is creating the requisite employment it should be a no-brainer from my perspective!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The data below shows that the trickle of Sydneysiders moving to Queensland <em>has </em>only been a trickle through this cycle to date, and most certainly not a flood.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said, net interstate migration for the March quarter into Queensland (+1,300) was plenty stronger than we saw in the prior corresponding period (+700) taking annual net interstate migration into the Sunshine State back up to +6,200 from its recent nadir.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/25/B4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/25/B4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Totting that little lot up we can see in the chart below that population growth has slowed significantly in Western Australia (+35,300) and Queensland (+61,100), and has slowed further in South Australia (+13,900).</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/25/B3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/09/25/B3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>On the other hand annual population growth remains supremely strong in New South Wales (+101,200) and Victoria (+97,500) despite the under-reporting of births over the past six months.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Housing supply</span></strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On an obliquely related note, although I can't remember exactly where I read it, somewhere this week was a piece which suggested that the construction of 10,000 apartments over four years at Sydney's Green Square would form part of a "tsunami" of oversupply in Sydney.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'm not sure if this was some kind of gee-up, but as you can see the in the figures above with the state population having increased by close to +400,000 over the past four years alone...I dunno, but I reckon someone's having a giraffe.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Whatever the case, New South Wales has an existing stock of close to <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/nsw-dwelling-stock-value-explodes" target="_blank">3 million dwellings</a>, and to my knowledge there has not been any recorded example of such a tiny fraction of additional construction having a material impact on a capital city property market.<br><br>Like London, Sydney is a city which is increasingly constrained in terms of its land supply in desirable locations, and is a city which is more or less permanently in a position of requiring new supply.<br><br>Now granted we're presently constructing proportionately far too many of those "shoebox" type developments - no arguments there - but as the Greater Sydney population continues to mushroom over time any such localised examples of oversupply will only ever be temporary in nature. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

Latest Expert Insights

Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

Guides

Editor's Picks

Guides

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Latest Expert Insights

Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

Guides

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Guides

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News