<p>An entity directed by HSN's Rafi Assouline and Rebel Property's Allen Linz has filed plans for an impressive new precinct in Woolloomooloo.</p>

<p>The major mixed-use development would transform a prominent William Street site into a new residential village anchored by affordable housing and a large public park.</p>

<p>The proposal, submitted as a State Significant Development Application, covers 164-172 and 174-194 William Street, a 6,398 sqm site between Forbes Street and Dowling Street on the southern edge of Woolloomooloo.</p>

<p>Designed by fjcstudio in collaboration with Bangawarra, Studio Bright and Tribe Studio Architects, the scheme would deliver 227 apartments across four residential buildings ranging in height up to 18 storeys, alongside retail space, public domain improvements and a new publicly accessible park.</p>

<p><img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0eb59b7c-914a-4a5c-b849-3a56749f5e93" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.18.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=mxM6EEqeoLjrCiTlCzTKTvzpKuh6kSkH" /></p>

<p>It's another design scheme for Rebel, who took <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-rebel-property-group-takes-woolloomooloo-precinct-to-nsw-government">concept plans to the NSW Gov late last year</a>.</p>

<p>The latest plans will be a mix of 167 build-to-sell apartments and 60 affordable apartments, with the affordable housing component representing 15 per cent of the project's gross floor area. The apartment mix includes 12 one-bedroom, 53 two-bedroom, 89 three-bedroom apartments and 13 penthouses, while the affordable housing component would comprise 42 one-bedroom and 18 two-bedroom apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3b3d4553-8a8c-4af5-aa8c-519ffb1e28c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.12%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=_Yb6ibN7eDnOtQjCNDK2eviORa4qzgv." /></p>

<p>Rebel Property is seeking to take advantage of the NSW Government's infill affordable housing bonus provisions under the Housing SEPP, which provide additional floor space and height in exchange for the delivery of affordable housing for a minimum of 15 years. The planning pathway allows a 30 per cent increase in floor space ratio and building height where 15 per cent of the development is dedicated to affordable housing.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>At the centre of the development is a 1,356 sqm sunlit public park designed to become a new community gathering space at the gateway to Woolloomooloo. The park would be complemented by a network of pedestrian laneways connecting William Street with the surrounding streets, improving permeability through what is currently a largely impermeable block.</p>

<p><img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="257af931-a393-4007-8c6d-7219796df58d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=KAHy94GrhaReFsWTGDKfy39EDJ8gEEv4" /></p>

<p>The design team says the public domain has been heavily influenced by the site's topography and Aboriginal cultural heritage, drawing on the escarpments, gullies and landscape characteristics that historically defined the area before urbanisation. The landscape design has been developed in partnership with First Nations consultancy Bangawarra.</p>

<p>The project would be delivered across four separate buildings. The William Street East and William Street West buildings, designed by fjcstudio, would contain the majority of the apartments. Melbourne-based Studio Bright has designed the Forbes Street building, while Tribe Studio Architects is responsible for the Dowling Street building.</p>

<p>Rebel had secured approval for the concept plans late last year.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look: HSN, Rebel, advances Woolloomooloo precinct plans

<p>A locally heritage-listed furniture showroom on Water Street is set to become the centrepiece of a new mixed-use residential development as local developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/keylin-group">Keylin</a> seeks approval for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lotus-on-water-street-290-water-street-fortitude-valley-qld-4006">Lotus on Water Street</a>, a 15-storey project on the Fortitude Valley side of Spring Hill.</p>

<p>The proposal spans 290 Water Street and 137-141 Warry Street, combining several properties into a 2,869 sqm site that sits between Fortitude Valley, Spring Hill and the rapidly evolving Victoria Park precinct. Keylin's plans would deliver 132 apartments alongside new retail, hospitality and commercial space, while retaining and repurposing the historic Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom that fronts Water Street.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/jackson-teece">Jackson Teece</a>, Lotus on Water Street comprises a 12-storey residential tower rising above a three-storey podium and communal rooftop terrace. The development includes 76 apartments classified as multiple dwellings and a further 56 units proposed as short-term accommodation, designed to be flexibly used as either accommodation or permanent residences. The apartment mix comprises six one-bedroom, 54 two-bedroom and 16 three-bedroom homes.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9822bb79-6c49-49c9-95ba-319e8c8d81c3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20front.png?VersionId=ioW8zbN4UVebbLetTFuv92t.HkdgfR5e" /></p>

<p>Residents would have access to an extensive rooftop recreation level spanning more than 1,200 sqm of communal open space. Plans include a pool, gym, sauna, infrared sauna, yoga area, library, private dining room, barbecue facilities and landscaped entertainment spaces, making the rooftop the project's largest shared amenity offering.</p>

<p>At street level, the proposal focuses on the adaptive reuse of the heritage buildings along Water Street, where 518 sqm of retail and commercial space is planned across shop, office and food and drink outlet uses. A permeable residential lobby would be positioned between the retained heritage buildings, creating a pedestrian connection between the historic streetscape and the new tower behind.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="269cf3e0-7d13-48bf-a318-05a00deb5c10" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20podium.png?VersionId=DLXmTCLsp6GOcLpQ0h.0z7wKCw59EhN_" /></p>

<p>The heritage retention strategy is central to the scheme. The development application notes that the Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom and adjoining heritage buildings will remain, with only non-significant structures on the site earmarked for removal under a previously issued Heritage Exemption Certificate. Levels one and two of the new podium are recessed behind the heritage façades to maintain their prominence within the streetscape.</p>

<p>Jackson Teece has drawn inspiration from the site's manufacturing history when designing the podium. The planning documents state that the façade incorporates perforated metal screening that references the woven and rattan furniture historically produced on the site. Cascading and climbing plants are integrated throughout the podium to soften the building's presentation and screen parking levels behind. The landscape strategy also informs the project's name, Lotus on Water Street, drawing on the historic Spring Hollow waterholes that once ran through Spring Hill and the blue water lilies associated with Meeanjin, Brisbane's traditional name.</p>

<p>The proposal also incorporates the neighbouring property at 141 Warry Street, currently occupied by a healthcare service. The existing building would remain, with nine dedicated parking spaces allocated within the new development to support its ongoing operation. In total, Lotus on Water Street proposes 117 car spaces, including 110 resident spaces and seven visitor bays, alongside 100 bicycle spaces.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="70cf07bc-4fd8-4e70-92dd-be8b21c4e4f0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20site.png?VersionId=txlxrJImM0Sm_vTzHVKh5DDUkyL_CiiA" /></p>

<p>The site sits within the Spring Hill East Precinct of the Spring Hill Neighbourhood Plan and is positioned around 650 metres from both Fortitude Valley Station and Exhibition Station. It is also within walking distance of the King Street precinct, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Herston Quarter and Victoria Park, which is earmarked to become a major venue precinct ahead of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.</p>

<p>Planning documents describe the location as a key gateway between Spring Hill and Fortitude Valley and highlight the area's increasing importance as new transport infrastructure and Olympic-related investment reshape Brisbane's inner north. The development team argues the project will contribute additional housing supply while activating a section of Water Street that has historically received less investment than other parts of the Valley.</p>

<p>Keylin has become increasingly active across Brisbane and southeast Queensland, assembling sites in strategic inner-city locations. They are currently selling and delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/oria-spring-hill-447-gregory-terrace-spring-hill-qld-4000">Oria Spring Hill</a>, just over 140 apartments due for completion in 2027.</p>


Keylin plans heritage-led Lotus on Water Street apartment development in Fortitude Valley

<p>Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.</p>

<p>The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.</p>

<p>One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.</p>

<p>"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.</p>

<p>"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]</p>

<p>The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.</p>

<p>PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.</p>

<p>"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]</p>

<p>Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.</p>

<p>Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.</p>

<p>The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.</p>

<p>"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.</p>

<p>"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]</p>

<p>Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.</p>

<p>Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]</p>


Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

<p>Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.</p>

<p>The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]</p>

<p>“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.</p>

<p>The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]</p>

<p>“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.</p>

<p>“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]</p>

<p>Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.</p>

<p>Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.</p>

<p>The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.</p>

<p>LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.</p>

<p>Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]</p>


Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

<p>Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?</p>

<p>Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.</p>

<p>NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.</p>

<p>“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.</p>

<p>"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.</p>

<p>Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.</p>

<p>“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”</p>

<p>Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.</p>

<p>“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”</p>

<p>She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.</p>

<p>“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”</p>


Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

<p>Sydney’s property market is known for high prices, competitive bidding, and mounting pressure on first home buyers. But change is on the horizon.</p>

<p>From late 2025, eligible first home buyers in New South Wales will have access to a new federal government initiative aimed at addressing affordability: the Help to Buy Scheme.&nbsp;</p>

<h2>What is the Help to Buy Scheme?</h2>

<p>The program introduces a shared equity model intended to reduce the upfront cost of entering the property market, particularly in high-demand urban areas such as Sydney.</p>

<p>The scheme operates under a shared ownership structure in which the federal government takes an equity stake of up to 40 per cent for new homes, or 30 per cent for existing dwellings. This arrangement allows eligible buyers to significantly reduce their loan size and avoid the added cost of Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI).</p>

<p>Under this model, purchasers can enter the property market with as little as a two per cent deposit, well below the traditional 10 to 20 per cent usually required. The government’s contribution is not a loan but a co-ownership stake in the property. As such, there is no interest or rent charged on its portion.</p>

<p>Because the government’s equity combined with the buyer’s deposit typically meets or exceeds the 20 per cent threshold, LMI does not apply. The remaining balance, generally between 60 and 70 per cent of the property’s value, is financed through a standard home loan with a participating lender.</p>

<p>The government's equity in the property remains in place until the buyer chooses to repay it voluntarily or until the property is sold. Buyers can buy back the government’s share over time, in increments of at least five per cent, depending on their financial situation.</p>

<p>There is no fixed repayment timeline, but the amount to be repaid will be based on the property's market value at the time of repayment, not the original purchase price.</p>

<h2>How do you qualify for the&nbsp;Help to Buy Scheme?</h2>

<p>To qualify for the Help to Buy Scheme, applicants must meet the following conditions:</p>

<ul>
	<li>Be an Australian citizen at least 18 years of age.</li>
	<li>Be a first-home buyer who does not currently own property.</li>
	<li>Intend to live in the property as their primary residence.</li>
	<li>Earn less than $100,000 per year for individuals, or $160,000 for couples.</li>
	<li>Purchase a property within the regional price caps, currently $950,000 in Sydney, though this is expected to rise to approximately $1.3 million ahead of the program’s launch.</li>
</ul>

<p>While the Help to Buy Scheme does not solve affordability challenges across the board, it does offer a more accessible pathway for a defined segment of the market, particularly younger buyers with moderate incomes who have been priced out of traditional lending routes.</p>

<p>The scheme is expected to commence in NSW in late 2025, as part of a national rollout.</p>


Under the new model, purchasers can enter the property market with as little as a two per cent deposit, well below the traditional 10 to 20 per cent usually required

Help to Buy Scheme: What first home buyers in NSW need to know

<p>The First Home Owners Grant (FHOG) is a government initiative designed to help eligible first-time home buyers by offering financial assistance towards the purchase or construction of a new home.</p>

<p>While the FHOG is a nationwide program, it is administered separately by each state and territory, meaning the eligibility criteria, grant amounts, and property requirements can vary depending on your location. This means that the amount available and the conditions attached to the grant will differ, so it is important to check the specific guidelines for your state or territory.</p>

<p>It’s important to note that the FHOG is just one of several incentives available to first home buyers. In most states and territories, the grant is not linked to stamp duty exemptions or concessions, with the exception of the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The FHOG is typically a one-off payment, reducing the overall cost of purchasing or building a new home before any stamp duty concessions are applied.</p>

<p>Below, we provide a breakdown of the First Home Owner Grants available across Australia, outlining the specific details for each state and territory.</p>

<h2>New South Wales First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="252" data-start="225">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes valued up to $600,000. For land purchases and owner-builders, the threshold extends to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong data-end="413" data-start="389">Stamp Duty Benefits:</strong> Provides full stamp duty exemption for homes valued up to $800,000, with concessions available for properties up to $1 million.</p>

<h2>Victoria South Wales First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Provides a $10,000 grant for first-home buyers purchasing or building new homes valued up to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Benefits</strong>: Offers full stamp duty exemption for properties up to $600,000, with concessions available up to $750,000.</p>

<h2>Queensland First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="920" data-start="893">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers $30,000 for contracts signed between 20 November 2023 and 30 June 2025. The FHOG applies to new homes valued up to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong data-end="1162" data-start="1135">Stamp Duty Concessions:</strong> Provides additional concessions for properties valued up to $800,000.</p>

<h2>Western Australia First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes valued up to $750,000 in the southern regions and up to $1 million in the northern regions.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Concessions:</strong> Available for homes valued up to $600,000 for transactions entered into on or after 9 May 2024.</p>

<h2>Australian Capital Territory First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="1617" data-start="1590">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Replaced by the Home Buyer Concession Scheme, offering full stamp duty concessions for eligible buyers.</p>

<h2>South Australia First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Provides up to $15,000 for new homes, including houses, apartments, and townhouses. As of 6 June 2024, there is no property value cap for eligibility.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Relief:</strong> Available for new homes and vacant land purchases.</p>

<h2>Tasmania First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant</strong>: Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes and off the plan purchases.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Exemption</strong>: Between 18 February 2024 and 30 June 2026, first home buyers of established homes valued up to $750,000 receive a full exemption on property transfer duty.</p>

<h2>Northern Territory First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> The Northern Territory provides a $10,000 grant for new homes only. Additional government grants and concessions are available for first home buyers.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Exemption</strong>: The only stamp duty exemption available to property buyers is the House and Land Package Exemption (HLPE).</p>

<p><em>Eligibility criteria and application processes differ across states. Prospective buyers should refer to their respective state revenue offices for full details on grant availability, conditions, and additional concessions.</em></p>


Every First Home Owner Grant for new property by state

<p>In the ever-evolving landscape of sustainable architecture and environmentally conscious design, systems and ratings in place can help determine the energy efficiency of residential buildings in Australia.</p>

<p>Australia has multiple building rating systems that evaluate energy efficiency and sustainability in existing and new building designs.</p>

<p>Some systems assess individual building components, while others provide an overall rating for the entire structure.</p>

<p>A rating system ensures that homes are comfortable and energy-efficient, whether you are buying, renovating, or building.</p>

<p>NatHERS (Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme) is a common way for new homes to meet energy efficiency requirements.</p>

<p>As new developments continue to shape the urban environment, understanding NatHERS ratings becomes essential for developers and homeowners. This article delves into the concept of NatHERS ratings, their significance, and how they contribute to creating energy-efficient homes.</p>

<h2>What is NatHERS?</h2>

<p>NatHERS is a national initiative implemented by the Australian government to promote energy efficiency in residential buildings. The scheme aims to provide a standardised method for assessing the thermal performance of homes, considering factors such as insulation, orientation, ventilation, and building materials.&nbsp;</p>

<p>NatHERS ratings are the most common way new homes meet the National Construction Code's (NCC's) minimum energy efficiency requirements.&nbsp;</p>

<p>NatHERS assessments provide thermal and whole-home ratings for new homes, townhouses, and apartments.</p>

<p>The rating helps evaluate the energy performance of buildings, guides homeowners and developers to make informed decisions about the energy efficiency of their properties, and encourages the construction of more sustainable, comfortable, and cost-effective homes.</p>

<h2>How NatHERS Ratings Work</h2>

<p>NatHERS ratings are determined through four accredited software tools (AccuRate, BERS Pro, FirstRate5, HERO) using a calculation engine CSIRO developed to predict building temperature based on various factors.</p>

<p>The tools can model complex effects of building mass, insulation, window size, and other elements.</p>

<p>The outcome is a star rating that reflects the building's overall thermal efficiency, indicating how well it can maintain a comfortable indoor temperature without excessive reliance on heating or cooling systems.</p>

<p>The star rating scale ranges from 0 to 10, with a 6-star rating being the minimum requirement for compliance with the National Construction Code (NCC).&nbsp;</p>

<p>Achieving a higher star rating demonstrates a commitment to energy efficiency and sustainability, as the building is better equipped to minimise its environmental impact and reduce long-term energy costs.</p>

<p>Anyone can use NatHERS tools, but accredited assessors can provide certified ratings and professional advice.</p>

<h2>Benefits of Higher NatHERS Ratings</h2>

<p><strong>Energy Efficiency:</strong> Buildings with higher NatHERS ratings are more energy-efficient, requiring less heating and cooling energy. This reduces the structure's carbon footprint and lowers occupants' energy bills.</p>

<p><strong>Cost Savings:</strong> Homes with higher NatHERS ratings are generally more energy-efficient, resulting in reduced energy consumption for heating and cooling. This translates to lower energy bills for homeowners, making sustainable living environmentally friendly and economically viable in the long run.</p>

<p><strong>Environmental Impact:</strong> Lower energy consumption directly translates to a reduced environmental impact. Buildings with higher NatHERS ratings contribute to the overall goal of mitigating climate change by lowering greenhouse gas emissions associated with heating and cooling systems.</p>

<p><strong>Improved Comfort: </strong>Buildings with high NatHERS ratings offer better thermal comfort to occupants. Proper insulation, well-designed ventilation, and optimal orientation maintain a consistent and comfortable indoor temperature, providing occupants with a more enjoyable and healthier space.</p>

<p><strong>Market Value and Desirability:</strong> Higher NatHERS ratings can enhance the market value of a property. As energy efficiency becomes a more significant consideration for homebuyers, a well-rated building may attract a premium price and stand out in the real estate market.</p>

<p><strong>Compliance with Building Codes:</strong> NatHERS ratings are a vital component of the National Construction Code (NCC), and compliance with these ratings is often a mandatory requirement for new developments. Local councils and planning authorities may set minimum energy efficiency standards that must be met to obtain development approval.</p>


The Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme (NatHERS) is a crucial initiative shaping the future of energy-efficient, resilient, and cost-effective homes. With its recent upgrades, NatHERS has evolved into a world-leading tool for the building sector, supporting the global commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Staff Writer

What is a NatHERS rating in new off the plan apartment developments?

<p>Mixed-use developments have gained significant popularity across Australia in recent years due to their unique blend of residential, commercial, and recreational spaces.</p>

<p>Unlike traditional single-purpose developments, mixed-use projects offer a harmonious integration of various functions within a single locale.</p>

<p>Residential units seamlessly coexist with commercial establishments, retail outlets, dining venues, entertainment hubs, and recreational facilities, with the combination not only enhances convenience but also fosters a vibrant lifestyle and a sense of community.</p>

<h3>Convenience and accessibility</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments are designed with convenience in mind. They often integrate residential units with commercial spaces, retail outlets, restaurants, and recreational facilities, creating a self-contained community.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=114215 project_image_fid=204874]</p>

<p>The proximity allows residents to enjoy the convenience of having essential amenities and services within walking distance. Whether it's grabbing a cup of coffee, going grocery shopping, or accessing healthcare services, everything is conveniently located, saving residents time and effort.</p>

<h3>Vibrant lifestyle and community</h3>

<p>One of the major advantages of mixed-use developments is the vibrant lifestyle they offer. With a diverse range of amenities and communal spaces, residents have ample opportunities to interact, socialise, and build a sense of community.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107714 project_image_fid=214122]</p>

<p>The presence of parks, community centres, and shared spaces fosters a lively atmosphere, encouraging residents to engage in various activities and events. The vibrant lifestyle within these developments creates a unique sense of belonging and camaraderie among the residents.</p>

<h3>Potential for higher rental yields and property value appreciation</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments tend to attract a broad range of tenants and buyers due to their versatile nature. This high demand can result in higher rental yields for investors and potentially lead to property value appreciation over time.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=139989 project_image_fid=212887]</p>

<p>The integration of commercial and retail spaces attracts businesses, which can provide a stable rental income stream. Additionally, the popularity of mixed-use developments often drives up property values, making them a potentially lucrative investment in the long term.</p>

<h3>Enhanced security and maintenance</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments typically have comprehensive security measures in place. With controlled access points, CCTV surveillance, and professional security staff, residents can enjoy enhanced safety and peace of mind.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108019 project_image_fid=212658]</p>

<p>Additionally, these developments often have dedicated maintenance teams responsible for the upkeep of common areas, landscaping, and infrastructure. This ensures that the overall appearance and functionality of the development are well-maintained, creating a pleasant living environment for residents.</p>

<h3>Live-work-play balance</h3>

<p>One of the key attractions of mixed-use developments is the ability to achieve a desirable live-work-play balance. The integration of residential and commercial spaces allows residents to live closer to their workplaces, reducing commuting time and improving work-life balance.</p>

<p>The proximity to various amenities and recreational facilities encourages an active and healthy lifestyle. Residents can easily access fitness centres, parks, restaurants, and entertainment options, all within the same development, leading to a more fulfilling and convenient way of life.</p>


alisonwarters@gmail.com

The top five reasons to buy in a mixed-use development

<p style="line-height: 1.38;">When buying a property, everyone needs to be aware of the additional costs that come as part of the buying process.</p>

<p style="line-height: 1.38;">Often the largest outlay, after the deposit which goes to the bank, is stamp duty.</p>

<h2 style="line-height: 1.38;">What is Stamp Duty?</h2>

<p>Stamp duty is an extra tax to pay the government when you buy land, a property, and other certain assets.</p>

<p>It happens when the legal ownership is transferred. It can also be known as property transfer duty or transfer duty.</p>

<p style="line-height: 1.38;"><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="415" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/C32BWkB5--c" title="YouTube video player" width="660"></iframe></p>

<h2>Who pays Stamp Duty?</h2>

<p>In some circumstances, you may get an exemption. For some states, you won’t have to pay for stamp duty if you are a first home buyer or a pensioner for houses under a particular price. There are also stamp duty concessions, where you may be entitled to a discount.</p>

<h2>How much does Stamp Duty cost?</h2>

<p>Each state has different rules which affect how much you need to pay. These rules can affect the rate you pay, and the timeframe you will need to pay in. Before you buy land or a property, make sure you check the up-to-date information for your state’s stamp duty.</p>

<p>You can use a free stamp duty calculator online to see approximately how much you’ll need to pay. Find out if you’re eligible for an exemption by enquiring on a project via Urban!</p>

<p>Overall, the stamp duty you need to pay will depend on:</p>

<ul>
	<li aria-level="1">How much your land/property is worth</li>
	<li aria-level="1">Where your land/property is located</li>
	<li aria-level="1">What type of land/property it is</li>
</ul>

<p style="line-height:1.38">Want to find out more? <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@UrbanAustralia?utm_source=YouTube&amp;utm_medium=Video&amp;utm_campaign=Subscribe&amp;utm_id=Subscribe">Subscribe to our YouTube channel</a> for more property videos.</p>


Ellen Walker

Off-the-plan property explained: What is stamp duty?

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">At Property Bloom we are always trying to improve our process.  We put a lot of time and effort into designing our villas, houses or units whether they be for a dual occupancy or multi unit project, we want our finished product to look better than the standard 'investor stock'.</span></p>
<p>Of course, we need to do this in a cost effective way and so I've found that spending time on key areas like front façades, kitchens and bathrooms can add a wow factor without breaking the budget.</p>
<p>I read this great story about <a href="https://www.houzz.com.au/ideabooks/53600916/list/12-hot-kitchen-trends-set-to-sizzle-in-2016" target="_blank">12 hot kitchen trends</a> and was pleased to see we were meeting seven of the twelve trends in the kitchens we are building right now.</p>
<p>Here's a photo of a kitchen in one of our recently completed developments:</p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/16/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-16%20at%209.45.50%20AM.png" alt="" width="508" height="325"></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Timber features for kitchens continues to trend. We've used it in our kitchen to add warmth and it was nice to see the report notes that walnut tones  will be trending next year. The timber cupboards we've used are Polytec European Walnut. </p>
<p>You can also add texture by using a textured product to your cupboards. We did this by using a textured melamine to the timber areas. Which brings me to the next trend - texture.</p>
<p> Most kitchen manufacturers offer a good choice of textured laminate benches or melamine cupboards and they are usually the same price as flat surfaces.  You can add texture to your splashback tile. We have used a softly lined splashback tile, although it's hard to see in the photo.</p>
<p>We purposely kept the main cabinetry neutral which ticks another trend box. We only wanted two main features for the kitchen which is the use of timber and stone for the benches.</p>
<p>Thin benches are in and it's goodbye to chunky style benches.  This is a relief as we used a thin, engineered stone bench with mitred edges. This was a choice more around cost than trend as the thicker bench tops were more expensive. <br><br></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/16/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-16%20at%209.46.48%20AM.png" alt="" width="553" height="340"></p>
<p>Engineered stone benches have become so well manufactured that it can be hard to tell the difference from natural materials.In an investment property it doesn't make sense to use real marble or granite so we are meeting the trend to use engineered materials. I love the wider choice of colours and tones you can get from the various supplies of engineered stone benches. It's important your bench works in well with your flooring, especially if you are using a mitred or waterfall edge where the bench will meet the floor.</p>
<p>Speaking of flooring, we've used a stone look floor tile with a polished finish. I like the floor to reflect light which can give the impression of a large, clean space. But perhaps this is not right on trend as I think more natural and matt finishes are in right now.</p>
<p>For our pendant lights, we've used a small white pendant with a silver foil lining inside it. This adds a little touch of glam. So we are only just half ticking the trend of using precious metals. If you really want to be on trend you should incorporate some brass, cooper or gold which may be used in the lighting, tapware, rangehood or splashback.But we didn't want to compete with the natural timber tones that were already a feature. Be careful not to have too many features as they can compete with each other giving you a cluttered or busy look.</p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/16/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-16%20at%209.47.32%20AM.png" alt="" width="436" height="277"></p>
<p>I find designing the kitchens and choosing the colours one of the most enjoyable parts of property development and valuers have told me that a well designed, spacious kitchen with quality features will add value to your property. If you'd like to know just how much this kitchen cost us, then send me an email and I'll be happy to share.      </p>
<p><em>Jo Chivers is chief executive officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a>.</em></p>
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Is your property development ticking kitchen trends?: Jo Chivers

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<p><span>It was another busy week for auctions across the combined capital cities with 2,817 auctions held after the previous week saw 3,016 properties taken to auction; the highest volumes have been since March this year. </span></p>
<p><span>The preliminary clearance rate of 69.3% has remained below 70% for the 5th week in a row, down from 69.5% last week. This time last year, the clearance rate was 68.6%, although volumes were lower with only 2,449 auctions held.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/19/20151019-capital-city.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/19/20151019-capital-city.jpg" alt="" width="560" height="423"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>In </span><strong>Melbourne</strong><span>, Australia’s largest auction market, 73.6% of the 1,193 reported auctions sold this week. There were 1,390 auctions held across the city this week, similar to last week, when there were 1,397 auctions and the final auction clearance rate was 73.4%. In comparison, over the same week last year, there were 1,167 auctions held with a clearance rate of 71.7 per cent. The Inner region of Melbourne had the highest number of auctions this week (287), with a preliminary clearance rate of 73 per cent. Meanwhile, the strongest clearance rate was recorded across the Outer East region, where 82.1 per cent of homes taken to auction sold based on the preliminary results.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/19/20151019-Melbourne.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/19/20151019-Melbourne.jpg" alt="" width="663" height="449"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>Across </span><strong>Sydney</strong><span>, 1,074 homes were taken to auction this week with a preliminary clearance rate of 66.6 per cent across 830 reported results, the lowest clearance rate for the year and also the third week in a row where Sydney’s clearance rate has been below 70 per cent. The last time the clearance rate was this low was the first week of December 2014 (66.1). Last week, the final clearance rate for the city was 69.6 per cent, across 1,197 auctions. One year ago, 929 Sydney homes were taken to auction and the clearance rate was 72 per cent. This week, the performance across Sydney’s individual sub regions was varied. Across the Outer South West region, where 21 results have been reported so far, the preliminary clearance rate was 47.6 per cent, while across the Inner West (80 per cent) and the Eastern Suburbs (76.8 per cent), the success rate of reported auctions was much higher.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/19/20151019-Sydney.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/19/20151019-Sydney.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="434"></p>
<p><strong>Brisbane</strong><span> was host to 146 auctions this week, down from 186 last week, and the preliminary clearance rate was 53.2 per cent, down slightly from 53.8 per cent over the previous week. At the same time last year, 46 per cent of the 159 auctions held were successful. In the </span><strong>Gold Coast</strong><span>, a clearance rate of 56.5 per cent was recorded across 23 results.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/19/20151019-Brisbane.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/19/20151019-Brisbane.jpg" alt="" width="623" height="418"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>A total of 93 </span><strong>Adelaide</strong><span> homes were auctioned this week and the preliminary auction clearance rate of 72.1 per cent is higher than the 64 per cent from the previous week across 127 auctions. One year ago, Adelaide’s clearance rate was a lower 53.3 per cent across 103 auctions.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/19/20151019-Adelaide.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/19/20151019-Adelaide.jpg" alt="" width="659" height="446"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>In <strong>Perth</strong>, just 16 auctions were held this week. Of the 8 results reported toCoreLogic RP Data so far, only 2 have been successful. Last week, the final auction clearance rate for Perth was 37.9 per cent across 34 auctions.</p>
<p>Across <strong>Canberra</strong> a total of 82 auctions were held this week, up from 68 last week and 55 at the same time last year. Canberra’s preliminary clearance rate of 67.3 per cent is stronger than it was the previous week (62.1 per cent).</p>
<p>Of the 12 <strong>Tasmanian</strong> auction results reported so far this week, 7 sales have been recorded.</p>
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Clearance rate below 70% for the fifth week running: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

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<p class="Body">One of the side effects of Sydney’s boom is that prices have risen a lot but rents haven’t, so yields have become ugly – i.e. not attractive to investors.</p>
<p class="Body">Melbourne prices haven’t risen as much (generally speaking) but the city has developed a gap between prices and rents similar to Sydney’s. These days you’re lucky to find a rental yield as high as 3% - which, even in these days of low interest rates, is unappealing.</p>
<p class="Body">Other capital cities like Adelaide and Brisbane have much better yields on offer, but for investors seeking properties that can pay their own way the pickings are slim.</p>
<p class="Body">There was a time when investors could access double-digit rental yields in resources-related locations (if they were willing to disregard risk). But many of those markets have collapsed, either through developer over-supply or the impact of FIFO workforces or the mining downturn - or some combination of those three factors.</p>
<p class="Body">There’s nowhere left that provides 10%-plus rental yields. Some of the more careless research houses publish lists claiming you can get 15% or 20% yields in certain locations, but those are statistical aberrations that prove the adage about “garbage in, garbage out”, exacerbated by researchers with a garbage approach to business ethics (as long as it generates publicity, to hell with accuracy).</p>
<p class="Body">A recent list claimed you could get yields above 30% (!!) in Mission Beach in Queensland, when in reality typical yields on residential property in this location are below 5%. If 30% yields were truly achievable, every investor in Australia would be stampeding north and buying every property in sight.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">The best yields you can find anywhere in Australia – I mean genuine rental yields based on real situations, not computer glitches, in locations of substance – are to be found in Cairns.</p>
<p class="Body">Cairns is one of a number of regional Queensland cities where you can readily buy property that pays its own way – i.e. cash flow positive or at least neutral.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">In the North Queensland city, you can find plenty of houses with rental returns in the 5.5% to 6% range and apartments between 7% and 8%. I can’t find another market of substance with rental yields that strong.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">Other regional cities in the state offer attractive returns as well. The Sunshine Coast, Townsville and Hervey Bay have this in common: houses where yields are typically in the 4.7% to 5.5% range and units that generally range from 5.7% to 6.5%. If you hunt around, you can find better.</p>
<p class="Body">The other common things they share are strong economies, growing populations, major spending on infrastructure, ambitious local councils and plenty of affordable dwellings. They’re all on growth paths, some of them after long periods of under achievement.</p>
<p class="Body">Some, like Cairns and the Sunshine Coast, are transition economies, where civic and business leaders have recognised that the historic reliance on tourism makes them vulnerable to downturns caused by forces beyond their control. So they’ve been proactively working to broaden the economic base and encourage new industries.</p>
<p class="Body">The Sunshine Coast now has a medical sector that didn’t previously exist, based on the $2 billion University Hospital which is generating all kinds of new medically-related development around it. It’s helping the Sunshine Coast become a regional city, rather than a coastal retreat for tourists and retirees. Similar things are happening in Cairns and, to a lesser extent, in Hervey Bay.</p>
<p class="Body">These property markets are starting to deliver good price growth and strong rents, with yields far in excess of what you can get in any of the capital cities.</p>
<p class="BodyA"> <em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Sydney rental yields becoming ugly: Terry Ryder

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<p><span>It has been interesting to track economic data over the past few years, watching the Sydney economy outperform across most metrics.</span></p>
<p><span>Small wonder that the Sydney housing market has also forged ahead so strongly since 2008.</span></p>
<p><span>The New South Wales economy is powering Australia's economic growth, with ANZ's stateometer now showing the Premier State both above trend and accelerating across a range of economic indicators, from labour market conditions to house prices.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/22/NSW.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/22/NSW.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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NSW above trend and accelerating: Pete Wargent

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">It's pretty much a given that if you are developing property, then you will encounter problems.</span></p>
<p>Over time, I've learnt how to deal with these fun little things that crop up. They used to stress me out and ruin my day, I found myself naturally wanting to jump into action to solve the problem as quickly as possible.</p>
<p>But I've learnt over time to sit with it.</p>
<p>Mulling the problem over from different angles allows other options to come up. This process doesn't need too much time, but sometime it needs a different perspective.</p>
<p>One problem-solving technique you should master as a property developer  is changing perspectives to redefine the problem.</p>
<p>Here's an example.</p>
<p>We received our builder's quote on a multi unit development project and it came in a bit higher than we estimated.</p>
<p>Our client had requested some specific detail in the exterior design that had an impact on the cost that posed risk of over capitalising.</p>
<p>Rather than do the obvious which would be to pare back the design and remove the expensive items, I sat with the issue for a day. We were looking at it from two clear perspectives; cost and design. But were there other perspectives to consider? Yes.</p>
<p>Another perspective I looked at was yield or return. Was the design items going to impact on the end use? Who was the end user?</p>
<p>In this case, it was a tenant because our client was building to hold and lease. One of our goals was to optimise the rental return. Would the upgrade bring in more rent? To be honest, no. The upgrade may make the dwelling a little more appealing but the bottom line was it wouldn't increase the yield.</p>
<p>Another important perspective for Property Bloom was to make our client happy. Whilst our job is to ensure the most efficient outcome, we also want our clients to feel they've participated in the process, if that is important to them - it may not be to some clients but it is to others.</p>
<p> Our solution was to look at other areas of the development that we could save costs on. We were able to simplify the roof design without any considerable difference in appearance and no difference in function. So the cost savings in the roof trusses and materials allowed us to spend on the upgrades our client really wanted.</p>
<p>Our solution to the problem didn't compromise the project but in fact, enhanced it.</p>
<p>A little perspective can go a long way. </p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Jo Chivers is chief executive officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a>.</em></p>
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Solving a property development problem using perspective: Jo Chivers

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<p class="Body">The overwhelming weight of expert commentary has rubbished Macquarie Bank’s forecast of major price decline in the next 12 months.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">Some media has presented Macquarie’s simplistic analysis, based on Australian as a single property market with a very specific price prediction, as the gospel according to irrefutable economists. But most coverage has been a counter-attack from credible commentators presenting more considered and realistic views of next year’s markets.</p>
<p>Aussie Home Loans chief John Symond said "there's buckley's chance of a price correction." As Property Observer reported on 22 October, Symond told a Sydney investment conference that Sydney's market was nearing its peak, <a href="/news/sydneys-booming-residential-property-market-was-nearing-peak-john-symond">with “steam coming out of the market and sanity coming in”</a>, and predicted a more flat market – but no across-the-board decreases.</p>
<p>And he observed, quite correctly, that there would be differences from one area to the next. "Hot areas will still see a 7-9% gain, in other areas you might see 3-4% and in some other areas a 5% drop," he said. "You have to do your homework."<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">Yes, indeed. That is a far more reasoned assessment of the near future than Macquarie’s prediction of a blanket 7.5% decline, apparently everywhere.</p>
<p class="Body">Louis Christopher of SQM Research has predicted house price growth in 2016 but at a slower pace than recent years. As an experienced analyst, he knows better than to make a generalised forecast that covers the whole nation as a single market. He has different forecasts for each city and includes three different forecast scenarios in each case, dependent on key events including economic growth, interest rates and the value of the Australian dollar.</p>
<p>In the latest edition of <em>Housing Boom and Bust Report</em> from SQM Research, he predicted Sydney prices will rise between 4% and 9% next year. Melbourne is forecast to overtake Sydney and be the best-performing capital city in 2016 with a rise of between 8% and 13%.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Christopher said the market overall is unlikely to see price decline for a number of reasons, including the Australian dollar, which is tipped to stay at current low levels or fall further, providing a buffer to the economy and the housing market.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Raine &amp; Horne executive chairman Angus Raine believes the Macquarie prediction is difficult to substantiate given the current performance of major property markets. He said the level of demand for property and the depth to the market do not indicate a major correction.</p>
<p>Veronica Morgan, the principal of <em>Good Deeds Property Buyers</em> based in Sydney’s inner west, quite rightly criticised the bank for broadcasting the prediction without considering markets on a micro scale.</p>
<p>“It really annoys me when bank PR people get hold of some economic data and suddenly an impending drop in the property market is front-page news,” she said. “Why can I say that this latest prediction will not come true? Because there is really no such thing as an Australian property market. Look at any national property data and you will see that no two capital cities perform in the same way.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>“And then there are regional markets that all have their own cycles to consider. So how can anybody make a claim that the entire country is over-priced or ready for a fall? Even within Sydney there are dozens, probably hundreds, of micro markets."</p>
<p>Business commentator Peter Switzer said the bank forecast "bordered on being stupid", while Andrew Wilson, the senior economist at Domain's Australian Property Monitors, said it was “unbelievably unlikely”.</p>
<p>Wilson noted that, in the past decade, there had not been any national annual drops of more than 5%. “Even in periods where we had prices falling, such as during 2008 when it was the global financial crisis, the national house price fell by just under 4%,” Wilson said.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Stockland chief Mark Steinert expects house prices to continue to rise next year. His forecast is 3% to 5%.</p>
<p>"There has been quite a lot of talk going on for quite a long time now about the imminent downturn in housing, but no one has mentioned that it hasn't actually eventuated," Steinert told a Property Council lunch in Melbourne.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>"The reality is the economy in Australia is growing at a moderate level of around 2.5%. We have a low Australian dollar, continued population growth (albeit at a slower rate) and metro housing markets that are generally under-supplied. These are not the pre-conditions for some sort of general correction in housing."</p>
<p>There have numerous other commentators on the issue and the general theme is that there will be price growth in 2016 - but, in the case of Sydney especially, the rate of growth will be less.</p>
<p class="Body">An alternative view has come from accident-prone Shane Oliver, AMP Capital’s chief economist, who is predicting price decline but not until 2017.</p>
<p class="Body">Oliver has probably the worst track record of any economist in predicting real estate events. I could fill several pages with examples, but basically he believes housing is “over-valued” and has been predicting a significant correction for most of the past 10 years.</p>
<p class="Body"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">He clearly is one of those, not unlike another failed forecaster Steve Keen, who believes that if you keep making the same prediction year after year, you’ll eventually get it right.</span></p>
<p class="Body">So Shameless Shane was out there in the media again recently expounding his bubble theories, with claims of over-valuation of housing and predictions that property prices would fall “between 5% and 10%” - which might happen “around 2017”.</p>
<p class="Body"> </p>
<p class="Body"><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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Experts rubbish Macquarie Bank's price decline forecast: Terry Ryder

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<p><span>On CoreLogic-RP Data's Index, prices in Melbourne and Sydney have accelerated over the past quarter to an astonishing pace, though this index probably lags.</span><br><br><span>Prices are reported as up for the year, quarter...and even the day...for all capital cities in the index.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/12/RPD%20Sea%20of%20GReen.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/08/12/RPD%20Sea%20of%20GReen.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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A new high for Australian home values: Pete Wargent

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<p>I <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">was left eating humble pie this week following comments I made in an interview that appeared in the </span><em style="line-height: 1.3em;">Australian Financial Review</em><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> pertaining to the federal government’s announcement that another six homes had been identified as being acquired illegally and a further 462 sales under investigation. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">My response was “It’s nothing more than a PR stunt and a distraction. It’s been done for feel-good cuddles” – how wrong was I.</span></p>
<p>Later that day, I received an email from the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) boss heading up this investigation which (politely) outlined the detail of their inquiry which clearly identified the magnitude of this investigation which earnestly commenced in May this year. Owners of property bought illegally must voluntarily contact the ATO prior to 1 November 2015 to receive an amnesty of not being prosecuted.</p>
<p>Now once and for all, we will find out exactly what’s been happening as I have been saying for quite some time that this is rife within the real estate industry. It will be fascinating to see what recommendations are made and then implemented. I have been a strong proponent of tax file numbers being provided to the ATO on the exchange of contracts for every residential sale. It will also be interesting to see if the 100% selling ratio for all new developments is brought back to 50% as it was in 2008? Opening up our property markets to international exposure has certainly led to rapid price growth from Asian property investors.</p>
<p>Australia had a record number of 1.7 million international tourists visit last year which included a 21% surge from China.</p>
<p>This inquiry is timely given the number of recent global warnings of money laundering in real estate where Sydney and Melbourne have been suggested as hot spots. Residential property in Australia is the single largest and most valuable asset class worth an estimated $5.7 trillion. Sydney now ranks third in the world for luxury residential annual price growth according to Knight Frank’s Prime Global Cities Index. Sydney’s 12.5% growth now sits just behind Miami on 13.9% and Vancouver on 15% annual price growth. The report also identified that “a year ago eight cities recorded double – digit annual price growth. This quarter only four cities fell within this bracket.”</p>
<p>China’s shock devaluation significantly raises the risk that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be forced to cut the cash rate further which is a worst case scenario for the RBA. More particularly when this week Deputy Governor Philip Lowe said “Given the position of household balance sheets, it is unlikely to be in our long – term interest for a consumption boom to be financed by a pick –up in household borrowing.”</p>
<p>“Ever-rising house prices, relative to our incomes, do increase risks in the economy and are unlikely to make us better off as a nation. Rising housing prices are best matched by rising incomes.”</p>
<p>Then of course we will have to wait to see how many divestment orders are issued by the ATO where hopefully the owners won’t be allowed to “flip” which was the case when Villa del Mare was issued with the first divestment order a few months back.</p>
<p>Another interesting aspect will be closely watching the Sydney and Melbourne clearance rates now that it is very clear the role that the ATO is playing with their pursuit of illegal purchases given that I am not the only one who thought this was all political shirt-fronting.</p>
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 63</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 48</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 47</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 55</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 41</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 40</p>
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 7</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 3</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 2</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 14</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 30</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 18</p>
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 4</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 2</p>
<p>•Number of houses on the market this week – 2</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 36</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 26</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 25</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em><span>ROBERT SIMEON</span> is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. <br>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000. </em></p>
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Federal government property taskforce not for feel-good cuddles: Robert Simeon

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<div>There's a theory that hosing down investor demand should have no impact on rents.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That's because <em>in theory</em> for every property that isn't bought by an investor, an owner-occupier buys instead, and thus  the balance of supply and demand for rental properties remains unchanged. <br><br>In the real world capital city property markets don't work like that. In reality, many are renters either by choice or by circumstance, such as new graduates, transient employees, international or interstate visitors, and other folk who prefer taking a rental close to the city to ownership in the outer suburbs. Many others simply don't have an available deposit saved, so buying is not an option for them. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As such rental growth is to a large extent determined by the growth in demand for rentals - underpinned over time by population growth - and by the relative activity of investors. For example, rents in Australian capital cities (and especially Sydney) boomed in 1986 and again in 2008 both of which were periods when investor buying had crashed in half.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/11/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/11/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>For this reason it will be interesting to see what impact APRA's crackdown has on apartment rents in Sydney.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I've rented out several properties in Sydney in recent months, all of them for more than last year. However, the properties in question are in high demand areas such as on the Sydney harbourside, and as such are not likely to be very representative of what is happening in construction pockets like, say, Parramatta or Green Square. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Domain reported last week that as at March 2016 Sydney apartment rents were up by +4.0 per cent of 2016 from one year ago to a record median high of $520/week, with apartment rents now nearly as high as median house rents of $530/week in the harbour city. CoreLogic-RP Data has Sydney apartment rents +3.4 per cent higher than one year ago, and SQM Research records an increase of +5.7 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>To date this may in part simply be due to newer stock coming online, which typically is advertised for rent at higher prices than the older stock it often replaces. And we shouldn't be expecting runaway growth in rents any time soon, since investor activity is still at a historically high level, even after APRA's dampening of the buy-to-let sector.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While it's still early days, this trend is certainly one to watch. Markets are quite complex beasts when you drill into the detail, with endless subtle balances and counter-balances, and in an expensive capital city such as Sydney with a growing population rental growth is likely to continue to have an inverse relationship to investor activity. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Another trend that is worth watching I looked at here, and that is that inner Sydney vacancy rates have tightened while vacancy rates in secondary and outers areas of Sydney are rising.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>A question for today, then: could it be that foreign buyers of apartments are leaving their inner city units vacant?</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">FIRB data curve ball</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>In the 1980s Japanese buyers famously  bought heavily into Gold Coast property, but then promptly withdrew funds as the economic outlook soured. As I mused in some detail here, the FIRB data shows that through this cycle there has been an unprecedented surge in Chinese investment in Australian real estate, on a scale never before seen.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/11/FIRB4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/11/FIRB4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>If you've been following some of my pieces over the years, you'll know that I aim to identify new trends well before you read about them in the wider media, which of course sometimes means being wrong. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the topic of localised apartment oversupply, such as in Sydney's inner south, for example, I was yapping on about this emerging risk way back in 2013, long before it ever became a standard media topic <em>du jour</em>.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In that spirit, here's a possible anti-counter-contrarian view for you: maybe the high-rise building approvals boom won't prove to be such a big a deal after all? There are plenty of risk areas around, for sure, including some already alluded to above, but here are some lines of reasoning to consider:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>-<a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2016/04/immigration-alley-oop" target="_blank">i</a>mmigration is rising again - and therefore so is population growth - while the construction boom will soon pass its peak</div>
<div> </div>
<div>-in the most populous capital cities at least, annual population growth never really slowed down anyway: it's still tracking at monumentally strong levels in Greater Sydney (+83,300 in FY2015) and Melbourne (+91,600)</div>
<div> </div>
<div>-the numbers of international students forecast to immigrate into the largest cities is vast - I mean, really vast </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/11/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/11/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>-although the take-up of permanent residency by international students to date has not yet been as strong as had been suggested by earlier forecasts, the cumulative intake over the next five years is expected to be truly enormous.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/11/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/11/A6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>-the most timely available indicators of education arrivals suggest an unprecedented boom is well underway, with another new record high hit in the month of February.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/11/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/11/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>-with about 58 per cent of new construction approvals accounted for by foreign  buyers, especially driven by buyers from the Chinese mainland, many may choose not to rent their apartments out, and as such, might not add to the new supply of rental stock at all.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Absorption?</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Mostly these are familiar points. Certainly both Sydney (35,231) and Melbourne (32,614) have approved a historically high number of attached dwellings over the past year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/11/BA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/11/BA3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, some of these apartments are destined to forever remain in the "approved but not yet commenced" column, approvals are now trending down again, and in the grand scheme of things although there are certainly many cranes on the horizon, these are not outlandish numbers for cities of such a large and expanding population (Greater Sydney will blaze past 5 million in the next few months).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Moreover, the latest FIRB data show that the Chinese appetite for the purchase of new dwellings through this cycle is statistically unique. What if those Chinese buyers opt to rent out the apartments only on a short-stay basis? Or save them for their soon-to-be international student offspring? Or, most likely, simply never bother to ever bring them to market at all?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Suddenly Australia's apparent inner city apartment glut, represented by the green line below, could prove to be yet another doomsday scenario that never eventuates.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/11/BA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/11/BA1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is mostly conjecture, and it's not necessarily a base case, or even probable. And there are plenty of risks for the new and high-rise apartment markets in particular, as we have known now for some years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Settlement risks are now considerably higher than they were, with increased deposit requirements. And what if there are legislative changes in China which force sales and repatriation of funds? This may not seem rational or realistic, but then again nobody forecast the scale of the Chinese investment boom in the first place, so who really knows what comes next?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In my opinion, most mainland Chinese investors deliberately invest in Australian and other overseas property markets with no intention of repatriating funds. In many cases, the financial return may not be the only objective, or even the primary objective.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Keep a close eye on asking rents and vacancy rates. If the inner city markets do begin to tighten contrary to expectations, then this may be an indicator that mainland Chinese buyers are electing not to bring their shiny new apartments to the rental market, at the same time as domestic investor activity is being throttled. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>An interesting week of news ahead, commencing this morning with the Housing Finance data for February.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>January had been a weaker month for housing loan approvals, but then January is never a big month for activity, so the February figures will give us a much clearer picture of likely activity levels of 2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The market consensus forecast is for a moderate rebound in the number of approvals in the month, which broadly fits with what I've been seeing and hearing, that being a steady increase in home loan activity in aggregate. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>On Thursday, the ABS will release the latest March Labour Force figures, which will be the most important data of the week. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Last month the reported seasonally adjusted unemployment rate declined to 5.8 percent, but there is a fair chance that this volatile monthly reading could revert higher, with analysts expecting a bit of a rebound in both employment and the participation rate (following last month's surprise drop from 65.14 percent to 64.9 percent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
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Sydney unit rents rise to record high? Pete Wargent

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<div><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">It looks as though 2016 is shaping up to be a year within which the residential construction boom, which has mostly served the demands of foreign investors, begins to tail off.</span></div>
<div> </div>
<div>We should never read too much into the results of one month, of course, but reflecting trends that have already been reported by Housing Industry Association (HIA) finance for the purchase of new dwellings fell by more than 15 percent in February.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/13/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/13/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Although it is not yet much reflected in the rolling annual data below, finance for the construction of new dwellings also ticked back by -1.9 per cent in February.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It may or may not be too early to call the peak on finance for dwelling construction after a very solid run through this cycle, but market releases suggest that building approvals are now on a downslope, and construction will probably follow suit in time too.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/13/A11.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><img src="/images/2016/04/13/A11.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Market shifting away from investors</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Figures showed investor lending steadying at around a seasonally adjusted $11.9 billion, which is still a historically high figure, but some way down from the August 2015 peak.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>A quick glance at the chart for loans outstanding shows how banks and lenders have shifted their focus in favour of home loans, a direct response to APRA's regulatory intervention.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/13/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/13/A6.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<div>We know that there remain blurred lines between investor and home loans, but the February data shows that overall the balance has tilted back in favour of owner-occupier finance ($21 billion) over investment housing finance ($11.9 billion).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, 2016 looks likely to be a steadier year for property markets, as investors are limited in their borrowing capacity.<br><br>It's worth remembering that owner-occupiers represent a greater share of the market, and as such have the potential to push prices up in the areas in which they are buying (think middle-ring suburbs, catchments for good schools, good transport links, appealing shopping and lifestyle locations).<br><br>Investors should now begin to account for about one third of the market, which is much more in line with historical averages.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With returns from fixed interest accounts so low and mortgage repayments much lower than they were, many in the home ownership sector will look to improve the value of their own homes, or look to acquire renovation projects.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed major renovations activity is now at long last trending up in all three of the most populous states, with Sydney leading the way by a margin. Renovation activity is presently less popular in Melbourne, with considerably more modern housing available following a strong decade of construction and dwelling supply.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/13/A10.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/13/A10.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">First homebuyers subdued</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>While 2016 looks set to be the year of the homebuyer, much of the activity is being driven by refinancing and existing home-owning folk looking to trade up or down, rather than by new market entrants.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Even if the ABS data is not quite complete or accurate, it seems fair to surmise that the share of dwellings financed by first homebuyers is tracking some way below the long run averages.</div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/13/A9.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/13/A9.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>2016 therefore seems likely to be a year wherein markets are increasingly moved by homebuyers ahead of investors.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It is worth reiterating here that in part due to high transaction costs, whether bought as a home or a pure investment, property works best as a long term play.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The internet and financial media is largely - though, of course, not absolutely - a fusion of noise, short-termism, misinformation and guesswork when it comes to property market commentary. You only need to look back to 2012 for some classic examples of that.<br><br>In my opinion there is very little value in comparing returns with the share market over a one or two year timeframe. Each asset class has its merits and place in a portfolio, but generally speaking property needs at least a ten year time horizon in order to justify the transaction costs. <br><br>The data yesterday confirmed that home loan activity levels - although not necessarily aggregate mortgage values - are rising solidly in Queensland, and this is readily visible in some of the family-friendly middle ring suburbs of Brisbane. Investor hubs are considerably patchier, and many of the resources regions are an absolute disaster zone. <br><br>A final point of interest for today is that markets had increasingly been lining up bets for an interest rate cut as soon as May, though I personally didn't like the odds of that happening. <br><br>I don't spend hours deliberating over monetary policy wording, but clearly the Reserve Bank (RBA) noted in its most recent decision release that "continued low inflation would allow scope for easier policy, should that be appropriate...".<br><br>There are probably three things that would need to be in place for an interest rate cut, being a cooling of property investor lending (tentative tick), confirmation that hiring is weakening, and evidently confirmation of continued low inflation. <br><br>The Labour Force figures for March are due out on Thursday, and the market consensus sees a fairly moderate result as likely, with some clear risks to the unemployment rate reading, while the March inflation data is due out towards the end of the month.<br><br>There's a bit of water to flow under the bridge between now and then, but a nice bump in key commodity prices overnight and an incredibly strong result from NAB's Business Survey really don't point towards a rate cut at this stage. <br><br>A cracking NAB survey showed a surge in business conditions at their highest level in fully eight years since 2008, and while the employment gauge jumped to a five year high. Business conditions are now showing a reading of +12, absolutely miles above the long run average of +5, and capacity utilisation has improved strongly (I do note here, though, that the outlook for mining remains dire). <br><br>The RBA has arguably been a reluctant cutter through this cycle, so I reckon that rules out a May cut. In fact, interest rates could be on hold for as far as the eye can see. <br><br>As ever, happy to be proven wrong on that, though.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
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