Eddy Haddad's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/level-33">Level 33</a> is levelling up its approved Wollongong development, as the coastal city south of Sydney continues to prove popular in the high-density development space.

Level 33, a longtime developer in the Wollongong area, has gone through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority to upsize its approved two-tower development on the corner of Crown Street and Gladstone Avenue, just 100 metres from Wollongong Station.

The developer currently has approval for 252 apartments across two buildings rising to 19 storeys. It is now seeking approval for 33 and 38-storey towers that would deliver 467 apartments, including 67 affordable homes.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bka-architecture">BKA Architecture</a>, the development would comprise apartments above a three-level podium with around 1,100 sqm of retail space, along with basement parking for 448 vehicles.

According to the Urban Design Report by BKA, the proposal has the capacity to "reinforce the precinct's identity by strengthening links between health, education, and transport services, while also contributing to Wollongong's ongoing evolution as a key regional centre."

Wollongong is somewhat in vogue. Between Level 33 and Urban Property Group, the two developers have several thousand apartments planned across the city.

Level 33 is currently delivering Easterly Wollongong, one of its most boutique projects to date with just 21 high-end apartments, as well as Atchison &amp; Kenny, a 329-apartment development due for completion later this year. The developer also plans to redevelop the 13,088 sqm WIN Grand megasite into a new $500 million precinct with nearly 600 apartments and has more than 900 apartments planned for the former Bunnings Warehouse site at the intersection of Gipps and Flinders streets.

Urban Property Group is also playing a major role in the city's transformation. Its five-tower Keira Place precinct will deliver more than 800 homes, and it has recently lodged plans for a further 300 apartments near Wollongong Station.

Joel Robinson

First look: Level 33 upsizes Wollongong apartment towers

Just a week after filing plans for the final stage of its major Keira Place masterplan, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has unveiled another significant housing proposal in Wollongong, this time targeting a prominent site opposite North Wollongong Station.

The developer has lodged a State Significant Development Application for a 38-storey mixed-use tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-4a-flinders-street-north-wollongong-nsw-2500">4-4A Flinders Street</a>, around one kilometre north of the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/keira-place-wollongong-120-122-smith-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Keira Place precinct</a> currently taking shape on the edge of the CBD.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group plans 38-storey North Wollongong tower as Keira Place expansion gathers pace" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2b6428f1-6405-4038-8476-897de440e90d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/flinders%20podium.png?VersionId=QLqEvK0OuCEwRC47oHNftrw2B1YqaHF8" />

Designed by Studio.SC, the proposal comprises a 38-storey mixed-use development containing 303 apartments, including 45 affordable housing units, alongside 174 co-living residences. The scheme also includes ground-floor retail space, extensive landscaping and public domain improvements.

Studio.SC noted in the proposal it "outlines a vision for a landmark transit-oriented mixed-use development centred around North Wollongong Station, designed to support the city’s future growth while responding to the NSW Government’s housing and planning reforms."

The architecture firm said the proposal responds to the opportunities and constraints shaping future growth within the 400-metre catchment of the station and represents "a coordinated and future-focused approach to urban intensification, contributing to the long-term evolution of North Wollongong as a connected, walkable and high-density station precinct."

The site occupies a strategic corner bounded by Flinders Street, Station Street, Stafford Street and the Princes Highway, directly opposite North Wollongong Station.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group plans 38-storey North Wollongong tower as Keira Place expansion gathers pace" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7863adad-1f71-4022-b850-f44b252738fd" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/flinders%20podium%20a.png?VersionId=WsU7av0g8_8R2tGHWxgHeFSlhu7yeY1V" />

The proposal follows Urban Property Group's recent submission for the second and final stage of Keira Place, which would deliver a further three buildings comprising 657 homes opposite Beaton Park. It builds on the first stage, which features 150 apartments across two towers and recently commenced construction.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said breaking ground on the first stage marked a significant milestone for Wollongong and reflected the developer's long-term commitment to regional cities.

"Today's groundbreaking is about turning approvals into homes and moving quickly to deliver much-needed housing in Wollongong's city centre," Elias said.

"Keira Place will provide a diverse mix of homes close to jobs, transport and services, while setting a high benchmark for quality, durability and consumer protection."

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/urban-property-group-unveils-trio-of-towers-for-next-stage-of-new-wollongong-precinct-keira-place">Urban Property Group unveils trio of towers for next stage of new Wollongong precinct, Keira Place</a>

First look: Urban Property Group plans next major Wollongong tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/arada">Arada</a> has wasted little time expanding its ambitions in Campsie, lodging plans for a second major project in the rapidly transforming town centre just months after unveiling its three-tower One Campsie proposal on Beamish Street.

The UAE-backed developer has now taken aim at one of the suburb’s most strategically positioned sites, filing a State Significant Development Application for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/10-north-parade-campsie-nsw-2194">33-storey mixed-use tower</a> at 10 London Street and 43 North Parade, directly opposite the future Campsie Metro Station. The proposal is currently on public exhibition and represents another significant vote of confidence in Campsie's emergence as one of Sydney’s key transit-oriented growth centres.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, the development would deliver 156 apartments above a podium containing retail and commercial space, creating a new residential and commercial gateway to the town centre. The scheme also includes a four-level above-ground parking podium and a dedicated residential amenity floor featuring wellness and recreation facilities. At least 10 per cent of the apartments would be allocated as affordable housing for a period of 10 years.

The proposal occupies a 1,631 sqm site bounded by London Street, North Parade and Dispensary Lane, immediately adjoining the future Metro station precinct and just metres from Beamish Street’s retail and dining strip. According to the Urban Design Report, the project seeks to deliver "a great place that prioritises human-scaled experience and provides spatial improvements to the area."

<img alt="First look: Arada doubles down in Campsie with 33-storey Metro-front tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="175a8324-015b-4856-abe3-ce6f23199fa7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/podium%20campsie.png?VersionId=742UGwXFhFBX4GEl6wX4PYIWREAgn6il" />

Woods Bagot describes the tower as a key marker within Campsie's next phase of growth.

"Located directly opposite the new Campsie Metro Station on North Parade, 10 London Street is a thoughtfully composed 33-storey mixed-use tower that contributes to the ongoing transformation of the town centre," the Architectural Design Report states. The report says the project is intended to provide "high-quality homes within a vibrant, connected urban environment, while helping define Campsie's future skyline."

A strong emphasis has been placed on the public realm. The ground floor incorporates over 500 sqm of retail space and active frontages along both London Street and North Parade, while the podium is wrapped by extensive landscaped planting intended to soften the building's scale and strengthen the pedestrian experience. The development would also widen surrounding footpaths and improve connections between the Metro station and the broader town centre.

Above the podium, residents would have access to more than 1,400 sqm of communal amenities, including a pool, gym and landscaped recreation spaces. A distinctive green-wall treatment extending across four podium levels forms a major architectural feature, helping differentiate the project within the emerging high-density precinct.

The tower's design is closely tied to the broader Campsie Town Centre Master Plan and the arrival of Sydney Metro. The Urban Design Report notes the proposal "directly supports the Campsie Town Centre Master Plan by delivering new homes in a location explicitly identified for growth, improved accessibility, and high-quality urban renewal." It adds that the project contributes to the master plan's vision for a strengthened town centre supported by thousands of new homes around the future Metro station.

<img alt="First look: Arada doubles down in Campsie with 33-storey Metro-front tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bfd17654-253e-489a-bade-6278d63db412" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/base%20campsie.png?VersionId=3roJPMQGs36dazpkhvpvbDDP73Ld.Ica" />

The application follows Arada's recently lodged One Campsie project at 124–142 Beamish Street and 16–18 Ninth Avenue, where the developer is seeking approval for 346 apartments across three towers rising 24, 32 and 39 storeys. Together, the two proposals would cement Arada as one of the most influential developers shaping Campsie's future urban form.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-arada-files-for-trio-of-apartment-towers-in-campsie-town-centre">First Look: Arada files for trio of apartment towers in Campsie town centre</a>

Arada entered the Australian market in 2024 and has rapidly assembled a significant development pipeline across Sydney. Alongside its Campsie holdings, the developer is soon to launch <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/wattle-green-2-fishburn-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Wattle Green</a> in Castle Hill, and has expanded its local operations following its acquisition of construction firm Roberts &amp; Co.

Located around 14 kilometres south-west of the Sydney CBD, the site sits at the centre of one of Sydney's fastest-changing middle-ring precincts. The Metro conversion of Campsie Station, combined with Canterbury-Bankstown Council's master planning framework, is driving significant residential intensification around Beamish Street and North Parade, with thousands of new homes expected over coming decades.

First look: Arada doubles down in Campsie with 33-storey Metro-front tower plans

For the first time in a long time, Australia's inflation story is starting to look more like a landing than a fight.

The latest Consumer Price Index figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed annual inflation eased to four per cent in May, down from 4.2 per cent in April. On the surface, that might not seem like a major move. Inflation remains above the Reserve Bank's target range and some categories continue to record stubborn price growth.

But the significance of this result lies less in where inflation sits today and more in what it means for where interest rates are likely heading next.

The biggest takeaway is that inflation continues to move in the right direction.

Markets had been bracing for another sticky result after a period where progress appeared to stall. Instead, headline inflation came in softer than expected, helped by falling fuel prices and easing transport costs. Annual transport inflation halved from 6.6 per cent in April to 3.3 per cent in May, while automotive fuel prices fell 11.9 per cent during the month following lower oil prices and the impact of reduced fuel excise measures.

While petrol prices don't solve Australia's affordability challenges, they are one of the most visible and immediate costs for consumers. Falling fuel costs feed through the economy quickly, helping ease pressure on household budgets and business operating expenses.

The ABS data also showed headline inflation is now sitting at its lowest annual level in several months, reinforcing the broader trend that price growth is gradually moderating.

That trend is important because it aligns with what many economists and lenders have been saying for the last month.

Prior to this week's inflation data, ANZ, NAB and Commonwealth Bank had all shifted their forecasts, now believing the Reserve Bank had likely reached the peak of the interest rate cycle. Following the May inflation release, ANZ reaffirmed that view.

In its latest economic update, ANZ said it expects quarterly trimmed mean inflation to come in at 3.7 per cent for the June quarter, slightly below the Reserve Bank's forecast of 3.8 per cent. Importantly, the bank said that outcome, when combined with slowing economic activity, "supports our view that the cash rate has peaked".

The Reserve Bank has spent the better part of three years attempting to bring inflation under control through higher interest rates. If Australia's major banks are correct and rates have now peaked, the conversation shifts from how much higher rates could go to when they might begin coming down.

Westpac's caution comes from underlying inflation. The trimmed mean, the measure most closely watched by the Reserve Bank, increased from 3.4 per cent to 3.6 per cent annually. Housing inflation remains elevated at 6.5 per cent, reflecting ongoing increases in rents, electricity costs and new dwelling construction.

Electricity prices remain particularly problematic, rising 21.1 per cent over the past year following the removal of government rebates.

Housing construction costs are also showing signs of renewed pressure. ANZ noted new dwelling costs rose 0.9 per cent in May and are now running at an annualised pace of 8.6 per cent over the past three months. Builders continue to face higher labour, fuel and material costs, a reminder that inflationary pressures have not completely disappeared.

Housing affordability has deteriorated largely because of higher interest rates rather than higher property prices alone. Even modest reductions in mortgage rates would improve borrowing capacity, increase buyer confidence and reduce repayment pressure on existing homeowners.

While August is far from a certainty, the latest inflation result has strengthened the view that the next move in rates is more likely to be down than up. For borrowers, buyers and the development sector, that alone represents a significant shift from the conversation that dominated much of the past two years.

The inflation result the property market was waiting for

Commercial property group FiveX is doubling down on its move into the residential space.

The group, founded by Joshua and Marko Berger more than five decades ago, has followed up its plans for a 39-storey tower on North Sydney's Alfred Street with a proposed 61-storey tower in Chatswood.

The new tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/815-pacific-highway-chatswood-nsw-2067">815 Pacific Highway</a>, which would be one of the tallest proposed in Chatswood in recent years, will comprise 490 apartments, 76 of which will be dedicated affordable housing and managed by Evolve Housing for a minimum of 15 years.

The project will replace the long-standing Panorama Building, originally known as the BMA Tower, a 14-storey office building completed in 1972 and designed by Hungarian-born architect Hugo Stossel. At the time of its completion, the building was the tallest structure in Chatswood and became a local landmark due to its distinctive curved form and external glass lift.

<img alt="FiveX" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="956bd299-3864-47a0-8ea6-162b5524c5d8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-24%20at%201.02.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=EWx7teUr7RcYrI9mgRytwppwt5AdUDtb" />

fjcstudio is behind the designs. Its Architectural Design Report argues the ageing commercial building no longer reflects Chatswood's role as one of Sydney's key strategic centres and that the site is ideally positioned to support significantly higher residential density.

"The site is located at the heart of Chatswood, within the TOD accelerated rezoning area that supports higher density development around the new Metro station," the report states.

"The site's role within a walkable 400-metre radius catchment is where housing, employment, retail and community uses are encouraged to cluster in support of transit-oriented living."

<img alt="fjc" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8d198f5e-cc71-4175-9357-be6ec7207473" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-24%20at%201.18.27%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=5WUFc3IYBPvhQMBUYLCsjJhzdcVeYodE" />

The proposal has undergone two rounds of review by the NSW State Design Review Panel, with the design evolving through an extensive assessment process focused on design excellence, public realm outcomes, residential amenity and the integration of affordable housing.

fjcstudio says the residential component provides a diverse mix of apartment typologies, supporting a broad demographic and contributing to housing supply in a highly accessible location close to major transport, employment and retail infrastructure.

The application follows FiveX's plans for a 39-storey tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/275-alfred-street-north-north-sydney-nsw-2060">275 Alfred Street</a>, which it <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/275-alfred-street-north-north-sydney-nsw-2060">submitted through the same NSW Government pathway</a> in December. That's for 184 apartments.

Recent activity in Chatswood includes Hyecorp launching its Archer Street project, Celine, and Develotek securing approval for a 34-storey tower.

First look: FiveX targets Chatswood skyline with 61-storey tower after North Sydney plans

Sydney’s property market is known for high prices, competitive bidding, and mounting pressure on first home buyers. But change is on the horizon.

From late 2025, eligible first home buyers in New South Wales will have access to a new federal government initiative aimed at addressing affordability: the Help to Buy Scheme.&nbsp;

<h2>What is the Help to Buy Scheme?</h2>

The program introduces a shared equity model intended to reduce the upfront cost of entering the property market, particularly in high-demand urban areas such as Sydney.

The scheme operates under a shared ownership structure in which the federal government takes an equity stake of up to 40 per cent for new homes, or 30 per cent for existing dwellings. This arrangement allows eligible buyers to significantly reduce their loan size and avoid the added cost of Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI).

Under this model, purchasers can enter the property market with as little as a two per cent deposit, well below the traditional 10 to 20 per cent usually required. The government’s contribution is not a loan but a co-ownership stake in the property. As such, there is no interest or rent charged on its portion.

Because the government’s equity combined with the buyer’s deposit typically meets or exceeds the 20 per cent threshold, LMI does not apply. The remaining balance, generally between 60 and 70 per cent of the property’s value, is financed through a standard home loan with a participating lender.

The government's equity in the property remains in place until the buyer chooses to repay it voluntarily or until the property is sold. Buyers can buy back the government’s share over time, in increments of at least five per cent, depending on their financial situation.

There is no fixed repayment timeline, but the amount to be repaid will be based on the property's market value at the time of repayment, not the original purchase price.

<h2>How do you qualify for the&nbsp;Help to Buy Scheme?</h2>

To qualify for the Help to Buy Scheme, applicants must meet the following conditions:

<ul>
	<li>Be an Australian citizen at least 18 years of age.</li>
	<li>Be a first-home buyer who does not currently own property.</li>
	<li>Intend to live in the property as their primary residence.</li>
	<li>Earn less than $100,000 per year for individuals, or $160,000 for couples.</li>
	<li>Purchase a property within the regional price caps, currently $950,000 in Sydney, though this is expected to rise to approximately $1.3 million ahead of the program’s launch.</li>
</ul>

While the Help to Buy Scheme does not solve affordability challenges across the board, it does offer a more accessible pathway for a defined segment of the market, particularly younger buyers with moderate incomes who have been priced out of traditional lending routes.

The scheme is expected to commence in NSW in late 2025, as part of a national rollout.

Under the new model, purchasers can enter the property market with as little as a two per cent deposit, well below the traditional 10 to 20 per cent usually required

Help to Buy Scheme: What first home buyers in NSW need to know

The First Home Owners Grant (FHOG) is a government initiative designed to help eligible first-time home buyers by offering financial assistance towards the purchase or construction of a new home.

While the FHOG is a nationwide program, it is administered separately by each state and territory, meaning the eligibility criteria, grant amounts, and property requirements can vary depending on your location. This means that the amount available and the conditions attached to the grant will differ, so it is important to check the specific guidelines for your state or territory.

It’s important to note that the FHOG is just one of several incentives available to first home buyers. In most states and territories, the grant is not linked to stamp duty exemptions or concessions, with the exception of the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The FHOG is typically a one-off payment, reducing the overall cost of purchasing or building a new home before any stamp duty concessions are applied.

Below, we provide a breakdown of the First Home Owner Grants available across Australia, outlining the specific details for each state and territory.

<h2>New South Wales First Home Owner Grant</h2>

First Home Owner Grant: Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes valued up to $600,000. For land purchases and owner-builders, the threshold extends to $750,000.

Stamp Duty Benefits: Provides full stamp duty exemption for homes valued up to $800,000, with concessions available for properties up to $1 million.

<h2>Victoria South Wales First Home Owner Grant</h2>

First Home Owner Grant: Provides a $10,000 grant for first-home buyers purchasing or building new homes valued up to $750,000.

Stamp Duty Benefits: Offers full stamp duty exemption for properties up to $600,000, with concessions available up to $750,000.

<h2>Queensland First Home Owner Grant</h2>

First Home Owner Grant: Offers $30,000 for contracts signed between 20 November 2023 and 30 June 2025. The FHOG applies to new homes valued up to $750,000.

Stamp Duty Concessions: Provides additional concessions for properties valued up to $800,000.

<h2>Western Australia First Home Owner Grant</h2>

&nbsp;

First Home Owner Grant: Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes valued up to $750,000 in the southern regions and up to $1 million in the northern regions.

Stamp Duty Concessions: Available for homes valued up to $600,000 for transactions entered into on or after 9 May 2024.

<h2>Australian Capital Territory First Home Owner Grant</h2>

First Home Owner Grant: Replaced by the Home Buyer Concession Scheme, offering full stamp duty concessions for eligible buyers.

<h2>South Australia First Home Owner Grant</h2>

First Home Owner Grant: Provides up to $15,000 for new homes, including houses, apartments, and townhouses. As of 6 June 2024, there is no property value cap for eligibility.

Stamp Duty Relief: Available for new homes and vacant land purchases.

<h2>Tasmania First Home Owner Grant</h2>

First Home Owner Grant: Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes and off the plan purchases.

Stamp Duty Exemption: Between 18 February 2024 and 30 June 2026, first home buyers of established homes valued up to $750,000 receive a full exemption on property transfer duty.

<h2>Northern Territory First Home Owner Grant</h2>

First Home Owner Grant: The Northern Territory provides a $10,000 grant for new homes only. Additional government grants and concessions are available for first home buyers.

Stamp Duty Exemption: The only stamp duty exemption available to property buyers is the House and Land Package Exemption (HLPE).

Eligibility criteria and application processes differ across states. Prospective buyers should refer to their respective state revenue offices for full details on grant availability, conditions, and additional concessions.

Every First Home Owner Grant for new property by state

In the ever-evolving landscape of sustainable architecture and environmentally conscious design, systems and ratings in place can help determine the energy efficiency of residential buildings in Australia.

Australia has multiple building rating systems that evaluate energy efficiency and sustainability in existing and new building designs.

Some systems assess individual building components, while others provide an overall rating for the entire structure.

A rating system ensures that homes are comfortable and energy-efficient, whether you are buying, renovating, or building.

NatHERS (Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme) is a common way for new homes to meet energy efficiency requirements.

As new developments continue to shape the urban environment, understanding NatHERS ratings becomes essential for developers and homeowners. This article delves into the concept of NatHERS ratings, their significance, and how they contribute to creating energy-efficient homes.

<h2>What is NatHERS?</h2>

NatHERS is a national initiative implemented by the Australian government to promote energy efficiency in residential buildings. The scheme aims to provide a standardised method for assessing the thermal performance of homes, considering factors such as insulation, orientation, ventilation, and building materials.&nbsp;

NatHERS ratings are the most common way new homes meet the National Construction Code's (NCC's) minimum energy efficiency requirements.&nbsp;

NatHERS assessments provide thermal and whole-home ratings for new homes, townhouses, and apartments.

The rating helps evaluate the energy performance of buildings, guides homeowners and developers to make informed decisions about the energy efficiency of their properties, and encourages the construction of more sustainable, comfortable, and cost-effective homes.

<h2>How NatHERS Ratings Work</h2>

NatHERS ratings are determined through four accredited software tools (AccuRate, BERS Pro, FirstRate5, HERO) using a calculation engine CSIRO developed to predict building temperature based on various factors.

The tools can model complex effects of building mass, insulation, window size, and other elements.

The outcome is a star rating that reflects the building's overall thermal efficiency, indicating how well it can maintain a comfortable indoor temperature without excessive reliance on heating or cooling systems.

The star rating scale ranges from 0 to 10, with a 6-star rating being the minimum requirement for compliance with the National Construction Code (NCC).&nbsp;

Achieving a higher star rating demonstrates a commitment to energy efficiency and sustainability, as the building is better equipped to minimise its environmental impact and reduce long-term energy costs.

Anyone can use NatHERS tools, but accredited assessors can provide certified ratings and professional advice.

<h2>Benefits of Higher NatHERS Ratings</h2>

Energy Efficiency: Buildings with higher NatHERS ratings are more energy-efficient, requiring less heating and cooling energy. This reduces the structure's carbon footprint and lowers occupants' energy bills.

Cost Savings: Homes with higher NatHERS ratings are generally more energy-efficient, resulting in reduced energy consumption for heating and cooling. This translates to lower energy bills for homeowners, making sustainable living environmentally friendly and economically viable in the long run.

Environmental Impact: Lower energy consumption directly translates to a reduced environmental impact. Buildings with higher NatHERS ratings contribute to the overall goal of mitigating climate change by lowering greenhouse gas emissions associated with heating and cooling systems.

Improved Comfort: Buildings with high NatHERS ratings offer better thermal comfort to occupants. Proper insulation, well-designed ventilation, and optimal orientation maintain a consistent and comfortable indoor temperature, providing occupants with a more enjoyable and healthier space.

Market Value and Desirability: Higher NatHERS ratings can enhance the market value of a property. As energy efficiency becomes a more significant consideration for homebuyers, a well-rated building may attract a premium price and stand out in the real estate market.

Compliance with Building Codes: NatHERS ratings are a vital component of the National Construction Code (NCC), and compliance with these ratings is often a mandatory requirement for new developments. Local councils and planning authorities may set minimum energy efficiency standards that must be met to obtain development approval.

The Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme (NatHERS) is a crucial initiative shaping the future of energy-efficient, resilient, and cost-effective homes. With its recent upgrades, NatHERS has evolved into a world-leading tool for the building sector, supporting the global commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Staff Writer

What is a NatHERS rating in new off the plan apartment developments?

Mixed-use developments have gained significant popularity across Australia in recent years due to their unique blend of residential, commercial, and recreational spaces.

Unlike traditional single-purpose developments, mixed-use projects offer a harmonious integration of various functions within a single locale.

Residential units seamlessly coexist with commercial establishments, retail outlets, dining venues, entertainment hubs, and recreational facilities, with the combination not only enhances convenience but also fosters a vibrant lifestyle and a sense of community.

<h3>Convenience and accessibility</h3>

Mixed-use developments are designed with convenience in mind. They often integrate residential units with commercial spaces, retail outlets, restaurants, and recreational facilities, creating a self-contained community.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114215 project_image_fid=204874]

The proximity allows residents to enjoy the convenience of having essential amenities and services within walking distance. Whether it's grabbing a cup of coffee, going grocery shopping, or accessing healthcare services, everything is conveniently located, saving residents time and effort.

<h3>Vibrant lifestyle and community</h3>

One of the major advantages of mixed-use developments is the vibrant lifestyle they offer. With a diverse range of amenities and communal spaces, residents have ample opportunities to interact, socialise, and build a sense of community.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107714 project_image_fid=214122]

The presence of parks, community centres, and shared spaces fosters a lively atmosphere, encouraging residents to engage in various activities and events. The vibrant lifestyle within these developments creates a unique sense of belonging and camaraderie among the residents.

<h3>Potential for higher rental yields and property value appreciation</h3>

Mixed-use developments tend to attract a broad range of tenants and buyers due to their versatile nature. This high demand can result in higher rental yields for investors and potentially lead to property value appreciation over time.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=139989 project_image_fid=212887]

The integration of commercial and retail spaces attracts businesses, which can provide a stable rental income stream. Additionally, the popularity of mixed-use developments often drives up property values, making them a potentially lucrative investment in the long term.

<h3>Enhanced security and maintenance</h3>

Mixed-use developments typically have comprehensive security measures in place. With controlled access points, CCTV surveillance, and professional security staff, residents can enjoy enhanced safety and peace of mind.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108019 project_image_fid=212658]

Additionally, these developments often have dedicated maintenance teams responsible for the upkeep of common areas, landscaping, and infrastructure. This ensures that the overall appearance and functionality of the development are well-maintained, creating a pleasant living environment for residents.

<h3>Live-work-play balance</h3>

One of the key attractions of mixed-use developments is the ability to achieve a desirable live-work-play balance. The integration of residential and commercial spaces allows residents to live closer to their workplaces, reducing commuting time and improving work-life balance.

The proximity to various amenities and recreational facilities encourages an active and healthy lifestyle. Residents can easily access fitness centres, parks, restaurants, and entertainment options, all within the same development, leading to a more fulfilling and convenient way of life.

alisonwarters@gmail.com

The top five reasons to buy in a mixed-use development

When buying a property, everyone needs to be aware of the additional costs that come as part of the buying process.

Often the largest outlay, after the deposit which goes to the bank, is stamp duty.

<h2 style="line-height: 1.38;">What is Stamp Duty?</h2>

Stamp duty is an extra tax to pay the government when you buy land, a property, and other certain assets.

It happens when the legal ownership is transferred. It can also be known as property transfer duty or transfer duty.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="415" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/C32BWkB5--c" title="YouTube video player" width="660"></iframe>

<h2>Who pays Stamp Duty?</h2>

In some circumstances, you may get an exemption. For some states, you won’t have to pay for stamp duty if you are a first home buyer or a pensioner for houses under a particular price. There are also stamp duty concessions, where you may be entitled to a discount.

<h2>How much does Stamp Duty cost?</h2>

Each state has different rules which affect how much you need to pay. These rules can affect the rate you pay, and the timeframe you will need to pay in. Before you buy land or a property, make sure you check the up-to-date information for your state’s stamp duty.

You can use a free stamp duty calculator online to see approximately how much you’ll need to pay. Find out if you’re eligible for an exemption by enquiring on a project via Urban!

Overall, the stamp duty you need to pay will depend on:

<ul>
	<li aria-level="1">How much your land/property is worth</li>
	<li aria-level="1">Where your land/property is located</li>
	<li aria-level="1">What type of land/property it is</li>
</ul>

Want to find out more? <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@UrbanAustralia?utm_source=YouTube&amp;utm_medium=Video&amp;utm_campaign=Subscribe&amp;utm_id=Subscribe">Subscribe to our YouTube channel</a> for more property videos.

Ellen Walker

Off-the-plan property explained: What is stamp duty?

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment plunged 17.7% to 75.6 in April from 91.9 in March.
This is the single biggest monthly decline in the forty seven year history of the survey, taking the Index beyond GFC lows to levels only seen during the deep recessions of the early 1990s (64.6) and early 1980s (75.5).
However, it is pertinent to note that the lows in previous recessions were reached after one to two years of continuous deterioration compared to the one month collapse we have seen here. Certainly we cannot rule out the Index dropping below the historic low of 64.6 we saw in November 1990.
The details of the survey which are discussed below are all very disturbing and reflect the large shocks to jobs and spending. However the most surprising message is the collapse in confidence in the housing market.
The survey comes after an extremely turbulent month in which the Coronavirus outbreak has evolved from serious concern to full-blown pandemic. Confirmed cases globally have soared from around one hundred thousand at the time of the last survey to nearly two million currently. In Australia, the number of cases has surged from just 76 a month ago to around 6,500.
Australian governments have instituted widespread shutdowns on movement and social activity that have effectively banned many forms of economic activity.
While the drop in confidence this month is severe, it could well have been worse. Despite the bleak and threatening backdrop, Australia’s pandemic experience to date has been much less debilitating than that of the hardest hit areas abroad.
The number of cases is high but has not overwhelmed Australia’s health system, with recent evidence showing a clear slowing in new cases that indicates policy measures are working to contain the spread.
These developments give some support to our view that the Australian economy will lift in the December quarter following three consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
We have also seen a swift and effective response from governments, highlighted by the Federal government’s $130 billion JobKeeper Payment scheme.
Westpac has estimated that without the Payment the unemployment rate would have soared to 17% by the end of June compared to a peak of 9% with the Payment scheme.
Note that previous recessions saw the unemployment rate peak at 11.2% (early 1990s) and 10.4% (early 1980s).
All five component sub-indexes fell in April. By far the biggest falls were in the near term outlook for the economy and in attitudes towards spending – reflecting the immediate effects of the shut-down.
The ‘economy, next 12 months’ sub-index recorded a spectacular 31% drop (the biggest monthly fall on record), taking it to 53.7. That compares to a low of 53.2 during the GFC and lows during previous recessions of 34.2 (early 1990s) and 42.1 (early 1980s).
Bill Evans is the Chief Economist at Westpac Banking Corporation
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Consumer sentiment plunges in April: Bill Evans

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In the wake of the coronavirus outbreak and the associated shutdown of economic activity, sentiment towards residential property and all sectors of commercial property declined sharply, according to the ANZ.
In their June Quarter ANZ property council survey in answer to new questions, specially set for this survey, they found that expectations of a negative impact from the coronavirus were broadly based and similar across the states. Nationwide, virtually all respondents expect to be negatively impacted by the pandemic, with all states recording similar responses.
10% of businesses report that the impact is already so serious it is affecting their viability. A large majority of firms reported that the virus was already impacting current construction schedules. Firms expect the impact of the virus to be largest on the tourism sector. 
In the residential sector, price expectations have turned around sharply and a net 36% of respondents now expect house prices to decline over the next year.
Employment in the sector is also expected to decline, but the outlook for construction activity is more balanced. The outlook for the residential sector is negative across all states and territories. 
In commercial property, across all sectors and states sentiment declined sharply. Confidence in the tourism and retail sectors was the weakest, but sentiment also declined sharply in the office and industrial sectors.
ANZ Senior Economist Felicity Emmett said, "after recovering through much of 2019, property sentiment has taken a hit from the coronavirus and the shutdown measures put in place by the federal and state governments to contain it."
"Just as the lockdown measures have been broadly-based, the deterioration in sentiment has been equally widespread. Sentiment across the residential, office, industrial, retail and tourism sectors have all been sharply impacted."
"Not surprisingly, the tourism sector has been the hardest hit."
"Across all sectors, price expectations have turned around sharply, employment prospects have deteriorated and the construction outlook has turned down."
"The construction sector is not subject to a shut-down at present, but the downturn in the outlook is concerning, and suggests that the impact of the virus may be more long lasting on the property sector. With long lags associated with construction approvals, commencements and completions, a quick rebound once the lockdown is eased seems unlikely"
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Coronavirus infecting property sentiment: ANZ

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<h2>OPINION:</h2>

This is a call for government, business and landlords to action new and creative measures to help small businesses get back on their feet again in late 2020 and beyond.

As an urban planner I am motivated by the opportunity to help create and manage successful cities, towns and communities. 

Australia's cities and towns are currently facing social and economic threats that have never been experienced before in the lifetime of its citizens.

Urban planners have a critical role to play in not only immediately responding to the <a href="/expert-insights/buying/how-will-the-coronavirus-impact-australia-s-property-market">COVID 19 crisis</a> but we also must have plans for contributing to the rebuild of our economy once the immediate threat passes.

An immediate focus must remain on supporting the continuity of construction activity - pushing on with planning approvals, getting rid of red tape and fast-tracking applications where necessary to ensure a <a href="/developments">development-ready</a> pipeline of projects and the many jobs they create.

But we must also work on solutions now that can be deployed once the current lockdown requirements are lifted. This is likely to only be a matter of months away.

This article proposes some ideas to help the sectors that have been hit the hardest so far - retail, hospitality, tourism, the creative industries and arts, entertainment, recreation and many types of service industries.

These are enterprises who have had their revenues disappear in an instant, and the demand for these services will take time to build up again. Demand is likely to gradually re-emerge over maybe a 6-18-month period.

It will be a fragile time –the public will be wary about how they spend their time and money, and they will take a while to become comfortable with <a href="/guides/covid-19-is-it-possible-to-practise-social-distancing-at-home-absolutely">socialising </a>in the wider community again.

A mix of re-emerging, re-imagined, and new businesses will step forward to meet this demand.

These businesses will need to operate as start-ups <a href="/guides/covid-19-how-to-adapt-to-working-from-home">working off lean resources</a> for potentially extended periods. Many won’t have great access to capital or an established customer base, and many will be building (or rebuilding) their company/product brand. 

But what they will have is a burning desire to succeed, a willingness to try new ideas, form partnerships and work hard, all on the smell of an oily rag.

<h2>So, what can urban planners do to help in this rebuilding process?</h2>

It is likely that there will be many vacant shops, cafes, restaurants, bars, offices and warehouses across our suburbs at the end of the lockdown phase. Landlords will be keen to get tenants back into these spaces as soon as possible, but there will be few tenants that will be able to take on the rent costs that existed in the pre-COVID 19 phase.

New businesses and those in a rebuilding phase alike will also be reluctant to take on rigid rent terms, particularly long leases. Even businesses that trade through the current period and negotiate the suspension of rent payments will be faced with significant debts that will affect their ongoing ability to trade once the grace period ends.

In this environment, the opportunity exists for planners, businesses, and landlords to work together on a '<a href="https://leanurbanism.org/">lean urbanism</a>' model for supporting new and re-emerging businesses to get going again. 

What I am proposing is that in designated locations, the State government, local councils and business associations work with landlords and businesses who are re-starting (or starting-up) to revitalise places suffering from (or at risk of) high vacancy.

This program would enable businesses to make low-risk and low-cost transitions from new and possibly interim operations into more sustainable and permanent arrangements during the recovery phase.  

The program would see urban planners, property owners and business associations band together to reimagine our suburban strip centres and industrial areas as places for the incubation and growth of new businesses. 

Such places can be designated as ‘enterprise zones’, experimental and opportunistic areas where start-ups can simply turn up and try new ideas in popup and temporary spaces, where they are supported by landlords and government to get up and running again.

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/post_covid-19-2.jpg" rel="gallery-all" title="post covid-19-2"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="339" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/post_covid-19-2.jpg?itok=_EdJJ35M" title="post covid-19-2" width="580"></a>

<figcaption>[Image Credit: www.millcastlemaine.com.au]</figcaption></figure>Whilst these ideas could potentially be applied to any business operating anywhere, there are particular benefits to be gained in concentrating the initial efforts on creating local business clusters, where a shared amenity and collective identity can be created, and where marketing, programming, and business development efforts can be shared.

The clustering of complementary types of businesses together can have a powerful effect on drawing customers and rebuilding the social and commercial value of such places.

Local business associations would market and curate such places with events, activities, and promotions, providing a level of activation that supports business and provides opportunities for the community to re-engage with the outside world. 

Landlords would participate by agreeing to license space for start-ups on a low cost and temporary basis. Incentives such as reduced land tax, municipal rates or other COVID 19-related recovery funding could be offered to landlords who agree to participate in the program.

All landlords know it’s easier to find a long-term commercial tenant when you’ve got an occupied, well-presented site in a location with strong branding and footfall. Several progressive commercial property developers are already providing below-market-rate rents to amenity enhancing smaller tenants as they see the value these tenants bring in attracting larger anchor tenants down the line.

The small businesses themselves would provide sweat equity in fitting out spaces, as well as working together to create a definable character and identity for their business precinct. 

<h2>It has been done before, so it can be done again.</h2>

There are precedents for this approach that we can draw from. 

Similar strategies were deployed in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Re:START">Christchurch</a> after the earthquake, and in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. 

<a href="https://www.popbrixton.org/about/">Pop Brixton</a> in the United Kingdom is another successful example of a temporary project that has disused places into an event venue and a community of independent retailers, restaurants, street food start-ups, and social enterprises. With over 30 enterprises on-site (including 17 restaurants and cafes) it is huge population local destination in London.

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/post_covid-19-3.jpg" rel="gallery-all" title="post covid-19-3"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="327" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/post_covid-19-3.jpg?itok=7jRw5Cqj" title="post covid-19-3" width="580"></a>

<figcaption> </figcaption></figure><a href="https://www.holzmarkt.com/">Holzmarkt</a> in Berlin is another such example, where the community has worked with the government and the private sector to create a vibrant, self-built space for business, arts, and culture.

Locally the success of <a href="https://renewnewcastle.org/">Renew Newcastle</a> provides a homegrown example of how destitute shopping strips can be transformed by creative thinking and adaptable agreements between landlords and local enterprises.

The role of the urban planner in all of this is to work with landowners and businesses to agree on a place-based plan for these activities and to remove the red tape by allowing businesses to turn up and start trading. It will also be necessary to remove or streamline various other forms of regulation relating to things like outdoor dining, liquor licensing and building regulations.

Urban planners within local government are perfectly positioned to take a lead role in coordinating the government input to such a program.

We can learn from the experiences of places like the City of Detroit in the use of lean urbanism. It has adopted an innovative ‘<a href="https://detroitmi.gov/departments/planning-and-development-department/zoning-innovation-and-historic-preservation/mix-tape-zoning">Mix Tape</a>’ planning ordinance to facilitate the revitalisation of 36 miles of commercial corridors across its municipality. This new ordinance allows for a wide mix of ‘as of right’ uses, and it eases parking requirements, and it sets a series of simple minimum design standards. It is accompanied by targeted streetscape improvements and the removal of other types of business regulation.

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/post_covid-19-4.jpg" rel="gallery-all" title="post covid-19-4"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="353" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/post_covid-19-4.jpg?itok=suEw2cPr" title="post covid-19-4" width="580"></a>

<figcaption> </figcaption></figure>We already have this type of tool available in Victoria - the <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0021/391152/PPN85-Applying_the_Commercial_3_Zone-v3.pdf">Commercial 3 zone</a> was specifically developed with a nimbler, lower-barrier economy in mind.  

Whilst implementing this zone would be an outcome worthy of pursuing many locations, we need not wait for this to happen. Instead, we can trial new ideas via the temporary use of space, and/or by suspending certain planning and other regulations in designated locations. 

In the short term, it would be possible to make progress by designating places in Melbourne where uses are allowed to just start happening on an interim basis. Just like we allow markets and events as temporary uses, we could allow a range of other commercial activities to occur on an interim basis. 

The Queensland Government has already initiated legislative reforms along these lines in response to COVID 19, by creating <a href="https://www.statedevelopment.qld.gov.au/planning/planning-legislation-amendment">temporary use licenses</a> for certain types of businesses.

Sorting out the ultimate zoning and regulatory arrangements can be a job for another day.

It would even be possible (if there was enough will amongst regulators) to allow spaces to be temporarily used as live and work-spaces – so that the cost of living and working for start-ups was kept as low as possible. 

Of course, certain minimum standards relating to amenities, health, and human safety would have to be adhered to, but it would be possible to suspend the need for a change of use permits and many other types of approvals on the basis that the uses were temporary in nature.

<h2>Time for new ‘Neighbourhood Deals’ ?</h2>

In the great depression of the 1920s US President Franklin D. Roosevelt initiated the ‘New Deal’ – a series of programs, public work projects, financial reforms, and regulations aimed at getting that nation back on its feet.

In Australia today, the various State and Federal Government reforms are already taking on a similar character and magnitude to Roosevelt’s original New Deal. There will be more national and state-led recovery programs to follow in the coming months.

We can add to this effort at the local level by creating ‘Neighbourhood Deals’ between government and landowners whereby neighbourhoods are designated as special enterprise zones where the priority is to support and nurture start-up business activity. The Deal would be that the Government would agree to eliminate red tape and invest in local amenity and placemaking activities, and landowners would agree to make space available to re-emerging and start-up businesses on low-cost and flexible terms.

All signatories to the Neighbourhood Deal would sign on to the principle that decisions will be made that are in the best interests of growing local businesses ahead of other things.

These neighbourhoods would function for a time as temporary urban incubators of new enterprises, and after a period of re-establishment those enterprises that prove to be viable would transition into ongoing commercial leases, and the city would work with them to ensure that the necessary permits and licenses were put in place. 

Buildings could then be upgraded in a more substantial manner, backed by business banking loans and potentially government stimulus programs.

There is a pandora's box of complexity to be unpacked with an initiative like this. But recent events have shown that if there is a need and a will, there is a way. A crisis can provide clarity and promote creative ways in challenging old problems.

If we want to trial the idea of establishing this type of lean and nimble approach to supporting the recovery and growth of enterprise in Australia, then we need to start working out the details right now. 
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Melvie

Post covid-19: we need to bend the rules and create ‘new deals’ for small businesses

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Interstate and local buyers have helped drive luxury apartment sales at Signature Broadbeach to a total of $153 million following a busy start to 2020 for the developer Little Projects and marketing agent KM Sales and Marketing.
Sales gathered pace in the first quarter of the year as construction progressed on the $210 million project, which is backed by high-profile Melbourne businessman Paul Little.
Director of KM Sales and Marketing Jayde Pezet said the sales to date mark a successful debut to the Gold Coast market for Little Projects.
“We are pleased to announce that Signature Broadbeach has now secured buyers for 184 of its 245 apartments since its launch,” Mr Pezet said.
In its latest construction update, Little Projects says basement foundations and perimeter walls have been completed and excavations for the four-level basement carpark are well advanced. 
The tower crane is expected to be on site in late April as construction progresses in earnest on the 35-storey development.
Designed for resort-style living in the heart of Broadbeach, Signature Broadbeach is proving to be ‘something for everyone’, including international buyers, according to Leighton Pyke, director of Little Projects.
“Sales and inquiries are coming from a variety of quarters, largely local owner-occupiers and interstate investors, primarily from Sydney, Melbourne and rural Victoria,” said Mr Pyke.
“Interstate investors are purchasing for an income earning lock-and-leave holiday home on the Coast, and that’s been a solid trend since the launch of this project.
“We’ve also had a number of international investors among our buyers, mainly from New Zealand and Japan. Inquiries have been quite healthy across the board.”
Signature Broadbeach has been specifically designed to offer the best in resort-style living within easy access to the urban amenities of one of the Gold Coast’s most sought-after beachside suburbs.
Located at 12-18 Philip Avenue, it is just half a block from a patrolled beach and one block from the centre of Broadbeach. It is within walking distance of Pacific Fair, Star Casino, the Gold Coast Convention and Exhibition Centre and the café and dining heart of Broadbeach.
The development offers a combination of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, all oriented towards the ocean to maximise views, with prices starting from $515,000.
Award-winning design team Rothelowman and SJB Interiors have crafted the project and its interiors with the apartment owner in mind.
“The quality of fittings and the level of resident amenities are among the highlights that buyers have noted within this development, and it’s just as important for investors as it is for the many owner-occupiers who have been won over by Signature,” said Mr Pyke. 
Residents’ amenities include a 50-metre infinity-edge pool and a recreational heart known as Deck at Signature. This comprises an entire level featuring a landscaped lawn area, barbecue and teppanyaki facilities, private lounge and dining room, sauna, steam room and spa, gymnasium and cinema.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/4/14/Pool%20-%20Signature%20.jpg" alt="">
Signature Broadbeach is a joint venture between Melbourne-based, international award-winning Little Projects, chaired by Mr. Little, and KM Develop, a leading Australian property development business led by Haydn Law.
Little Projects are considered Melbourne’s premier private developer having delivered over 2,000 apartments and townhouses across the city.
 
KM Develop, operating since 2002, have a combined 65 years’ experience, specialising in project acquisition, development and delivery.
Together the renowned developers have delivered projects totalling over $3.5 billion across residential and commercial markets throughout Australia. 
The luxury Signature Broadbeach development is scheduled for completion in the first half of 2022.
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Interstate and local buyers drive sales at Signature Broadbeach to $135 million

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The virus crisis creates unique challenges for everyone in real estate, including those of us who research, analyse and write reports. 
Every quarter I write The Price Predictor Index, which analyses key data like sales activity and price trends for every suburb and town in Australia. Researching and writing that report stretches typically across two months – and in the past two months the world has changed.
In some ways, the world is forever changed but the fundamentals underpinning Australia will not change. Areas with strong and diverse economies, growing populations, good existing infrastructure and investment in new infrastructure, will continue to be good places to own real estate. The underlying principles of supply and demand will remain intact on the other side of the shutdown.
The Autumn 2020 edition of the PPI is based on data that pre-dates the full impact of the virus crisis on property markets (remembering that the figures from both CoreLogic and SQM Research show little negative impact during March) but it shows that Australia was full of strong markets going into the crisis – and gives a clue to life on the other side.
The report identified growth markets right across Australia, finding uplift in places you don’t hear much about in mainstream media, as well as in the usual places. Based on our analysis of sales activity, the leading market jurisdictions were Regional New South Wales and Adelaide, ahead of Melbourne and Sydney. 
Other strong performers, in terms of the number of locations with rising sales activity, were Regional Queensland, Perth, Brisbane and Canberra. Regional South Australia was a surprise stand-out.
Our Autumn 2020 survey identified 77 growth markets in Regional NSW, while Adelaide and Melbourne both had 69 suburbs with rising momentum - but we rate Adelaide higher because it had the same number of growth market as Melbourne despite being a much smaller city. 
The survey reveals that both Sydney and Melbourne were well into growth phases prior to the onset of the coronavirus period, as part of a major upward movement in most market jurisdictions across Australia. 
Exceptions included the two previous national leaders, Regional Victoria and Hobart, which were both past the peaks of their recent upward cycles. We would expect price growth in those plateau-ing markets to level off - even without the additional impact created by the virus.
The report underlines some of the key principles of real estate which won’t change amid the current uncertainty. It demonstrates that price movements are preceded by significant changes in sales activity - and that prices take time to react to those trends. 
Our quarterly analysis shows that areas which experience a steady uplift in sales volumes will have increases in prices - eventually. And locations where sales activity is declining will eventually see price growth cease, or price decline. 
Both Sydney and Melbourne had falling prices in 2018 and early 2019, and this was preceded by a steady fall-off in sales volumes in the 12-18 months before values began their descent. Most researchers measure market peaks by price behaviour but at Hotspotting we measure it by analysing sales volumes – which allows predictions of whether prices will rise or fall in the near future.
The report also provides further evidence of the folly of generalisation about property markets. Media often discusses Australia as a single market, with forecasts of the likely movement in “Australian house prices”. It’s a ludicrous concept, but that’s what they do, fed by press releases from economists who discuss real estate as a single national entity. 
It is equally foolish to discuss a city as a single market. Our Autumn 2020 survey shows that while there was a noteworthy recovery under way in both Sydney and Melbourne in late 2019 and early 2020, the uplift was not occurring evenly across those very large metro areas. 
In Sydney, the revival was seen most vividly in upmarket areas like the Northern Beaches and the Inner West. The outer ring locations remained relatively quiet (with the notable exception of the Blacktown LGA). 
And while Sydney overall was the strongest we had recorded in any of our quarterly surveys in the past five years, there remained 12 suburbs we classified as declining markets and another 12 we rated as danger markets. The latter were all locations dominated by apartments, where extensive recent new development had created over-supply, without any evidence as yet of an increase in demand or prices. 
In Melbourne, we saw some similar patterns, with considerable uplift in the top end suburbs and also in Middle Melbourne - strong middle-ring locations like the Whitehorse LGA - but relatively little response in many of the outer ring areas. Melbourne still had 16 suburbs classified as declining markets, but no danger markets.
Equally, there can be stark contrasts in the performance of suburbs within a single local government area. The City Of Sydney LGA had five rising, 11 plateau, one danger and three declining markets - all those contrasting fortunes within one municipality, covering just 25 square kilometres of inner-city Sydney. 
Real estate markets are primarily driven by local events, even though national factors can impact sometimes. And we’ll find out how much when we see the data for April and May.
I continue to expect the negative impacts from the virus crisis to be short-term – and that, when we’re through this bizarre period in the life of the nation, the fundamentals will still apply.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Negative impacts of COVID-19 on real estate to be short-term: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Local governments are <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-04/Fact_sheet_supporting_businesses_0.pdf">not eligible for the JobKeeper Payment</a>, while major industries like construction are. Although the JobKeeper scheme has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-130-billion-jobkeeper-payment-what-the-experts-think-135043">broadly welcomed</a>, it is a mystery to business why Australia’s <a href="https://alga.asn.au/about-alga/">537 local councils</a>, which provide vital support for industries like construction, are not eligible. The failure to include local councils (and their wholly owned corporations) will undermine the economic and social impact these policies are meant to have.
This just doesn’t make sense to business or local government. Business and industry are depending on their partnerships with local government to get through the coronavirus crisis. But local councils, which <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6248.0.55.002">employ almost 200,000 people</a>, are already <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-07/local-gov-struggle-to-keep-staff-coronavirus-jobkeeper-payments/12125312">laying off thousands</a>.
Since construction directly <a href="http://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/GainInsights/IndustryInformation/Construction">employs about 1.2 million people</a> (9.2% of the workforce) and indirectly many more, construction sites remain “exempt” as the government closes down all non-essential businesses to combat coronavirus. As Urban Taskforce chief executive Tom Forrest <a href="https://www.urbantaskforce.com.au/clear-messages-from-government-construction-work-is-exempt-from-the-close-down-and-will-continue/">said</a>:
The building and construction industry will be a critical player in driving the economy through this crisis.
The federal government’s A$130 billion wage subsidy will cover businesses paying their employees A$1,500 a fortnight each for up to six months. Private businesses (including not-for-profits) will be <a href="https://www.business.gov.au/risk-management/emergency-management/coronavirus-information-and-support-for-business/jobkeeper-payment">eligible for the subsidy</a> if they meet the criteria.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323914/original/file-20200330-146705-7jrmw3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
The Conversation, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Self-employed individuals will similarly be eligible to receive the <a href="https://www.business.gov.au/risk-management/emergency-management/coronavirus-information-and-support-for-business/jobkeeper-payment">JobKeeper Payment</a>.
Registered charities will be eligible if their turnover has fallen or will likely fall by 15% or more relative to a comparable period.
Non-government schools and private vocational education providers are also eligible.
What is happening to local government?
Local government misses out. Yet revenues have been hit extremely hard since local government raises only <a href="https://alga.asn.au/policy-centre/financial-sustainability/">3.6% of its income from taxation and 90% from its own sources</a>. These include rates and fees for services – many of which have had to close.
As a result, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/councils-bleed-revenue-as-costs-from-coronavirus-surge-20200401-p54g58">city council revenues have plummeted</a>. For example, Blacktown City Council in Sydney estimates its monthly revenue has fallen by about A$1.7 million. The council employs around 2,300 people who serve a population of 400,000 people.
Like all local governments, it is responsible for a wide range of critical local services that support industries like construction that are exempt from current shutdowns. Councils provide planning and development approvals, childcare centres (26 in Blacktown’s case), waste management, infrastructure (such as roads and footpaths, parks, sporting grounds and swimming pools), housing, community amenities, transport and communications, recreation and culture and general public services.
The majority of freight tasks, which are central to keeping the economy going, start and finish on local government-controlled roads. These roads add up to about <a href="https://cdn.alga.asn.au/wp-content/uploads/ALGA-2019-Local-Government-Roads-and-Transport-Agenda.pdf">662,000km in length</a> – about 75% of the total national road length. Of 251.2 billion kilometres travelled in 2016, <a href="https://cdn.alga.asn.au/wp-content/uploads/ALGA-2019-Local-Government-Roads-and-Transport-Agenda.pdf">142.1 billion occurred in capital cities</a>.
Local councils also fund and support major construction projects. To return to the example of Blacktown, the A$76.5 million <a href="https://www.blacktown.nsw.gov.au/About-Council/What-we-do/Transformational-Projects/Warrick-Lane-redevelopment">Warrick Lane development</a> is part of the city centre transformation, which will provide major economic and social benefits for the people of Blacktown.
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/DAifmbBs8NU?wmode=transparent&amp;start=0" frameborder="0" width="440" height="260"></iframe>
The Warrick Lane redevelopment is a major construction project that wouldn’t be happening if not for the city council.
Another Blacktown City project is the <a href="https://www.blacktown.nsw.gov.au/About-Council/What-we-do/Transformational-Projects/International-Centre-of-Training-Excellence">International Centre of Training Excellence</a>, a multisport high-performance education, sports medicine and accelerated recovery facility. It’s due to open in 2022.
Nationwide, local government owns and manages non-financial assets with an <a href="https://alga.asn.au/policy-centre/financial-sustainability/">estimated written-down value of A$408 billion</a> in 2015-16. Operational spending by councils totalled about A$35 billion in that year.
A partner of industry and business
Local government spending goes into providing industry support and services across the nation. If you take these services and supports away you undermine government efforts to stimulate industries like construction to get us through this crisis and recover from it.
You also introduce the risk that development approvals are granted without thorough assessments. That’s likely to lead to new problems down the line.
As the federal government says, keeping people in work and businesses open will lay the foundations for a stronger economic recovery once the coronavirus crisis passes. But local government support is key to this strategy. Most people would be concerned to know their local councils are not being supported in the same way as private businesses – some of which have accumulated millions in profits and are incorporated overseas.
The federal government rightly talks about partnership, collaboration and collective responsibility to get through this crisis. Local council activities are critical to the productivity, well-being and liveability of local communities and cumulatively to the nation at this time.
Disaster management experience and <a href="https://www.disaster.qld.gov.au/dmg/Pages/DM-Guideline.aspx">guidelines</a> tell us the response to any crisis must be bottom-up as well as top-down. This means local government’s role is crucial. How can this be achieved without a functioning local government supporting industry and communities to get through this pandemic?
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/martin-loosemore-4690">Martin Loosemore</a>, Professor of Construction Management, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936">University of Technology Sydney</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/lack-of-help-for-local-councils-in-coronavirus-package-undercuts-industry-support-135700">original article</a>.
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Lack of help for local councils in coronavirus package undercuts industry support

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GUEST OBSERVATION
No Australian government has ever spent A$130 billion so quickly.
Last Tuesday, when the Prime Minister announced the government would subsidise six million jobs for six months to the tune of $1,500 a fortnight, the nation’s economists were left speechless.
Today, the government unveiled <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/06/labor-to-support-jobkeeper-package-despite-ineligibility-of-1m-casuals">the legislation</a> to be considered by the parliament tomorrow.
In ordinary times, there wouldn’t be a lot of support for a $130 billion wage subsidy. But these aren’t ordinary times.
Whole sectors of the economy have shut down, either directly as part of the health response to the pandemic, or indirectly as part of a wave of knock-on effects.
The JobKeeper wage subsidies will give <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-04/Fact_sheet_supporting_businesses_0.pdf">direct support</a> to the worst-affected businesses and jobs, helping to keep the economic damage to a minimum. The package isn’t perfect. But it’s a far better response than had been feared.
It will help keep the Australian economy afloat over the next six months, putting it in a position to bounce back when health officials deem it safe to reopen parts of the economy for business.
It has three key features:
<ul>
<li>
businesses get $1,500 per fortnight per worker (only for those workers who were employed on March 1. Short-term casuals with the business and some visa holders are excluded)
</li>
<li>
the employer has to keep those workers on the books and pay them at least $1,500 per fortnight
</li>
<li>
it only applies to businesses whose revenue has collapsed by at least 30% (15% for charities and not-for-profits, 50% for the largest businesses, with banks excluded).
</li>
</ul>
To be effective, it has to deliver on three goals:
<ul>
<li>
to support workers’ incomes through the crisis
</li>
<li>
to keep workers attached to firms, preserving as many job-specific skills and as much know-how as possible
</li>
<li>
to prevent wide-scale business failures which could turn a short and sharp recession into a long and painful depression.
</li>
</ul>
Importantly, this means if it’s working well, both workers and employers will get something out of the deal.
At firms that would otherwise have shut down, workers will benefit considerably.
Many workers will get paid more
The $1,500 payment will give them much more than the Newstart payment they would have received if laid off, even the doubled Newstart (now called JobSeeker) which for six months has been paired with a <a href="https://theconversation.com/scalable-without-limit-how-the-government-plans-to-get-coronavirus-support-into-our-hands-quickly-134353">Coronavirus supplement</a> lifting it from $565.70 to $1,115.60 per fortnight.
And for the one third of workers otherwise earning less than $1,500 per fortnight, the JobKeeper payment will be a pay rise. If the subsidy keeps their firm afloat, they’ll keep their job and be paid even more than before for the next six months.
It’s possible those earning more than $1,500 per fortnight will earn less than they did before in pay and benefits, depending on what the government does with the Fair Work Act.
 
Exactly how it works out for workers who get JobKeeper will depend on the labour market. On one hand, they will be more attractive to employers because their employment comes with a big subsidy that new hires don’t bring with them. On the other hand, they might have few alternative employers to turn to. Jobs might be hard to find.
They’ll get to keep their jobs
Regardless, even if their pay is reduced, their situation will be much better than under the renamed Newstart. And to the extent that cutting their pay helps to keep the firm viable, it will secure a job for them on the other side.
Employers will also benefit. If a business stays open, it will get the benefit of its workers’ labour for free or at a big discount. It might look like corporate welfare, but it’s a feature, not a bug.
A key objective of the scheme is to plug the hole in firms’ revenues to prevent them going under. Most would have been viable if it weren’t for the necessary public health measures governments have taken. Allowing them to fail would mean a pointless destruction of valuable resources.
The wage subsidy is somewhat crude and inevitably there will be some waste. Some firms will be given more money than they need, some workers will be given more, some less.
It was never going to be perfect
Given more time, the treasury could have designed something better targeted, less wasteful. It didn’t have it. The economy has never experienced so sudden a collapse.
But there are a few simple things the government could do to make it better.
It could include short-term casuals and visa holders, and it should take care not to weaken the Fair Work Act.
JobKeeper won’t prevent a serious contraction in the Australian economy, but it should give us a very good chance to bounce back on the other side.
<hr>
We would like to thank Jeff Borland for his comments on a draft version of this article.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135195/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steven-hamilton-155869">Steven Hamilton</a>, Visiting Fellow, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bruce-preston-452859">Bruce Preston</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722">University of Melbourne</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chris-edmond-673265">Chris Edmond</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722">University of Melbourne</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/jobkeeper-is-quick-dirty-and-effective-there-was-no-time-to-make-it-perfect-135195">original article</a>.
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JobKeeper is quick, dirty and effective, there was no time for perfection

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EXPERT OBSERVER
If you’re working from home for the first time, you might be asking yourself why you didn’t get to do this years ago.
The benefits of remote work have been discussed for nearly half a century. Many thinkers predicted a near future where work moves to the worker, rather than the worker to the work.
In 1969, Alan Kiron, a staff scientist at the US Patent Office, wrote in The Washington Post about how computers and new communication tools could change life and work. He called this “dominetics” – a combination of domicile, connections and electronics. The term never caught on, but the idea did.
Amid the 1973 OPEC oil crisis and skyrocketing fuel prices, a University of Southern California research group led by Jack Nilles conducted one of <a href="https://www.amazon.com.au/Telecommunications-Transportation-Tradeoff-Options-Tomorrow-1976-09-30/dp/B01JXRQ90A/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=The+Telecommunications-Transportation+Tradeoff%3A+Options+for&amp;amp;qid=1585617138&amp;amp;sr=8-1%20%22%22">the first major studies</a> of what Nilles would call “telecommuting”.
Nilles’s team studied a Los Angeles-based insurance company with more than 2,000 employees. Each worker travelled 34.4 kilometres a day on average, at a total cost (in 1974 prices) of US$2.73 million a year.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/325167/original/file-20200403-99349-1xemqvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Los Angeles traffic in 1972. <a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:HOLLYWOOD_FREEWAY_-_NARA_-_542684.jpg">Gene Daniels/US Environmental Protection Agency</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a>
Their study, published in 1976, concluded technology would soon make it more economical for organisations to decentralise using telecommuting. But Nilles also came to understand that “technology was not the limiting factor in the acceptance of telecommuting”.
Satellite work
Still, technology was a factor. This was a time when telephones and telefax machines were the only telecommunications equipment most people knew. Very few homes had personal computers, let alone access to the early internet. So the book focused more on redesigning work to let employees commute to local satellite offices.
Nilles illustrated the idea with the diagrams below.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324813/original/file-20200402-23090-19tezy3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">Jack Nilles’s diagrams for teleworking.
The principles were similar to the early architecture of the internet, whose designers were also interested in system resilience (notably a communications network that could <a href="https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/papers/2005/P2626.pdf">survive nuclear attack</a>).
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/325153/original/file-20200403-99351-113b71x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Baran’s 1962 diagrams of the internet as a distributed communications network.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/325170/original/file-20200403-74243-ddo26s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/325170/original/file-20200403-74243-ddo26s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
A magazine advertisement for the Apple II computer in December 1977. <a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Apple_II_advertisement_Dec_1977_page_1.jpg">Apple Computer Inc/Wikimedia</a>
Home telecommuting became more viable as the personal computer market exploded in the late 1970s. Apple’s <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.computerhistory.org/revolution/personal-computers/17/300">breakthrough Apple II</a>, for example, was released in 1977.
In 1980 futurist Alvin Toffler, author of the 1970 book Future Shock, predicted in his sequel, <a href="https://archive.org/stream/The_Third_Wave_Alvin_Toffler/The%20Third%20Wave%20-%20Alvin%20Toffler_djvu.txt">The Third Wave</a>, that the home would “assume a startling new importance” in the information age, becoming “a central unit in the society of tomorrow – a unit with enhanced rather than diminished economic, medical, educational and social functions”.
Here comes the internet
Toffler accurately saw technology’s potential, but it would be some time before remote working became relatively easy. Consider what sending an email involved in 1984:
How to send an email 1980s style. Electronic message writing down the phone line first shown on Thames TV’s computer program Database in 1984.
But with the growth in the internet, management guru Peter Drucker felt confident enough <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.amazon.com.au/Ecological-Vision-Reflections-American-Condition/dp/0765807254">by 1993</a> to declare commuting to the office obsolete:
It is now infinitely easier, cheaper and faster to do what the 19th century could not do: move information, and with it office work, to where the people are. The tools to do so are already here: the telephone, two-way video, electronic mail, the fax machine, the personal computer, the modem, and so on.
Vision versus reality
Despite the technology, the growth in working from home has been slow. A large survey of Anglo countries <a href="https://www.ibm.com/downloads/cas/O90WYGXZ">by IBM in 2014</a> found just 9% of employees teleworked at least some of the time, with about half of those doing it full-time or most of the time. Data from Australia and US suggest the proportion was still less than 20% at the end of 2019.
<a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6333.0Main+Features1August%202019?OpenDocument">Australian statistics</a> state almost a third of people do some work from home. But this inflates the number by including all those who work at home to catch up on work from the office.
There are have been two main barriers to greater uptake.
One, as Nilles himself <a href="https://www.citylab.com/life/2015/12/the-invention-of-telecommuting/418047/">acknowledged</a>, is organisational culture.
How we organise often <a href="https://chiefmartec.com/2016/11/martecs-law-great-management-challenge-21st-century">lags behind</a> what technology permits. Many organisations still cling to traditional ideas about managing people. If managers can’t see their employees working, they assume they won’t be.
The second problem is more intractable.
People actually like to be around each other. We’re social creatures. Indeed, a direct consequence of remote work is the <a href="http://codinginparadise.org/ebooks/html/blog/start_of_coworking">the co-working movement</a>, a response to the psychological and social challenges of working alone from home.
Even the technology companies that make teleworking and electronic cottages possible remain wedded to central offices. In 2013 Yahoo’s new chief executive, Marissa Mayer, <a href="https://www.sesp.northwestern.edu/masters-learning-and-organizational-change/knowledge-lens/stories/2014/are-face-to-face-teams-more-creative-than-virtual-teams">discouraged employees</a> from working from home, because “people are more collaborative and innovative when they’re together face to face”.
Apple founder Steve Job was also apparently obsessed with having physical office space that encouraged staff mingling. This reportedly including stressing over details like bathroom locations so <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/238433">personal encounters</a> would occur.
What about the future?
These challenges remain.
But circumstances should assist at least with the organisational and cultural barriers. Home working is simply, for now, the new reality. Businesses have no choice but to make it work.
After at least <a href="https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/scott-morrison-warns-australia-to-prepare-for-six-month-coronavirus-battle-c-746412">six months</a>, it’s easy to imagine some of this will stick.
The issue of social needs will be thornier. As Toffler himself <a href="https://archive.org/stream/The_Third_Wave_Alvin_Toffler/The%20Third%20Wave%20-%20Alvin%20Toffler_djvu.txt">said</a>, “it would be a mistake to underestimate the need for direct face-to-face contact in business, and all the subliminal and nonverbal communication that accompanies that contact”.
Perhaps the future will look a bit more like Nilles’s idea, with the growth of local co-working spaces, designed not overcome the limits of technology but to meet our needs as social beings.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135034/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/julian-waters-lynch-1005137">Julian Waters-Lynch</a>, Lecturer Entrepreneurship and Innovation, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/50-years-of-bold-predictions-about-remote-work-it-isnt-all-about-technology-135034">original article</a>.
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Predictions about remote work, it's not all about technology

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Housing conditions were strong up until the end of February, the last of the pre-Coronavirus data series showed. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Total housing lending was fairly steady at $19.5 billion, representing an increase of +13.1 per cent from a year earlier, mainly driven by homebuyers. </div>
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Tj7kB74Cv28/Xo048SI75LI/AAAAAAAA1Jg/s4CFqoIWW4gX7Mo97meC-8FgegCjW6M7wCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/HF2.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="824" data-original-width="1440">
First homebuyer commitments rose to the highest level since 2009.
 <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7d99RZVWWZM/Xo048PZtQVI/AAAAAAAA1JY/mkyCDs4_KPUAmZJBb1bFWbRLACAWaY3awCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/HF3.jpg" width="640" height="378" style="font-size: 12.16px;" data-original-height="828" data-original-width="1398">
<div>At the state level, homebuyer loans (ex-refi) in Queensland and Western Australia were strong, while New South Wales and Victoria saw a partial retracement, although volumes in these states remained +15 per cent and +20 per cent higher than a year earlier respectively.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Kiyhs8_oEo4/Xo048QGK6oI/AAAAAAAA1Jc/2-ANgNnHLDsVHpZypHKAfi0zxh4AET7kQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/HF1.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="829" data-original-width="1392"></div>
For home buyers purchasing existing dwellings the average loan size was steady at a near-record high.
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_n553QTxyPs/Xo049K_1vkI/AAAAAAAA1Jk/ubZ9VV4Y3DUgx9yKI7xSyX2DLjkbaiB5QCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/HF4.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="818" data-original-width="1369"></div>
There was some variation around the states, partly impacted by refinancing activity.
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-V0wxrfOsSto/Xo049Qhu3uI/AAAAAAAA1Jo/ibRdXCV_EdMM0hP04S3mmFceQHshcVOkgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/HF5.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1421"></div>
<div>
The wrap Overall, lending volumes were considerably stronger than a year earlier up until February 2020, but transaction activity is now expected to drop sharply through March and April as movements are restricted. </div>
<div>
 PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
</div>
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Housing loans declined slightly in February: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
introduction
After a roughly 35% plunge from their February high point to their lows around 23rd March, global and Australian shares have had a 15-20% rally. What’s more this rally has occurred despite increasingly bleak economic data ranging from plunges in business conditions surveys or PMIs (see the next chart) to a record 10 million surge over two weeks in claims for unemployment payments in the US. Volatility remains very high but at least we are seeing up and down volatility rather than all down as was the case into mid-March.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/4/8/111.png" alt="">
Markets usually lead and so may have already factored in the worst. And we have seen massive fiscal and monetary stimulus over the last few weeks to match the coronavirus threat to economies. So maybe we have already seen the low for shares? Or maybe not? There is still a lot of bad news ahead regarding the virus and the economic hit and we still don’t know how long the shutdown will be for and hence it’s hard to gauge the size and duration of the economic hit, when the recovery will come and what it will be like. What’s more past bear markets have often been interrupted by strong rallies, eg, October/November 2008 saw two 19% rallies in US shares followed by the ultimate low in March 2009. This could be the case here even if we have entered into a bottoming process.
So, what should investors look for in terms of when we can expect a bottom or be at least somewhat confident that the bottom has been reached? Not that anyone will ring a bell at the bottom or that investors will be bullish at the bottom.
The following are what we are looking for:
<ul>
<li>confidence the coronavirus can soon be contained;</li>
<li>measures to minimise collateral damage to the economy;</li>
<li>confidence collateral damage is being kept to a minimum &amp; signs that growth momentum is bottoming; &amp;</li>
<li>technical signs of a market bottom.</li>
</ul>
Confidence the coronavirus will soon be contained
This is important as it will give guidance as to the duration of the shutdowns and their severity and hence the first round hit to the economy. There are several key things to watch:
The severity of suppression measures.
After containment policies (quarantining &amp; contact follow up) failed to control the virus (South Korea may be an exception), most countries have moved on to suppression, ie social distancing. This has been made necessary to allow hospital systems to cope without a blow out in deaths as in Italy. The question is are they being applied rigoursly. The evidence suggests that they are. Of 41 major countries nearly 80% now have severe restrictions in place, including Australia.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/4/8/222.png" alt="">
Is suppression working? The best thing to watch for is a turn down in the number of new cases. Italy is a good one to watch as it went into national lockdown around 9 March and if they get it under control it gives other countries hope. And there are some positive signs here with a downtrend in new cases evident in Italy, Spain, Germany, the EU generally and Australia. In the US it’s too early to tell, but it’s New York epicentre is showing a decline in new cases.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/4/8/333.png" alt="">
<ul>
<li>Based on China’s experience: 11-21 days after the lockdown new cases peak, and a month or so after that, the shutdown can start to be relaxed, which is why Chinese economic indicators started to improve in March. (While some question the reliability of China’s Covid19 case data, directionally it looks right and lines up with President Xi’s March 10 Wuhan visit &amp; the restart of its economy.)</li>
<li>This would suggest that the lockdown in Italy and maybe even Australia may be able to be relaxed later this month or in May, if the number of new cases continues to trend down.</li>
<li>Of course, if the lockdown is eased too quickly this may risk a second wave of cases (as occurred in relation to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic). To guard against this, quarantining of new cases and contact follow up will have to be aggressive and international travel bans would likely have to remain in place to prevent imported new cases (as China has found). There are two things that could short circuit this.</li>
<li>
Antibody tests. It’s likely the actual number of coronavirus cases is being significantly underestimated because those with mild or no symptoms are not showing up for testing, but mass testing for antibodies to Covid19 would reveal what proportion of the population have already been infected and recovered. They will likely no longer be transmitters of the virus and should be able to return to work. Some estimates suggest that it’s already 40-60% of the Italian and UK populations. If so, there would already be a degree of “herd immunity” making it easier to safely relax the shutdowns. Such testing may still be several months away though.</li>
<li>
Anti-virals or a vaccine. A vaccine may still be 12 months away but anti-virals are being rapidly tested.</li>
</ul>
The bottom line on this is that there are a lot of balls in the air but the decline in the number of new cases in several countries including Australia indicates that shutdowns are working which in turn holds out the hope that they can be relaxed in a month or so (providing containment measures are rigorous). International travel will likely be the last restriction to be lifted.
Policy measures to support the economy
The past month has seen a massive ramp up in monetary and fiscal measures globally and in Australia to support businesses, jobs and incomes through the shutdown period and to keep financial markets functioning properly. These are discussed here and here. Some (eg in Australia) are better than others (eg in the US) but with policy makers committed to doing whatever it takes they provide confidence that second round damage from the shutdowns will be kept to a minimum, which will enable economies to recover once the virus is under control. We rate this as positive, although more may still need to be done.
Collateral damage being kept to a minimum/growth indicators bottoming
There are a range of indicators to track on this front, including:
<ul>
<li>Credit spreads. Corporate &amp; government bond yield gaps need to narrow. They are off their highs, but above normal.</li>
<li>Money market funding costs. As measured by the gap between 3 month borrowing rates and expected official rates these have narrowed in Australia but remain high in the US.</li>
<li>Default rates up only slightly. This is important in terms of assessing whether public support &amp; debt/rent payment holidays are working. It’s too early to tell in most countries.</li>
<li>Daily activity indicators (eg, for energy production and traffic congestion) stabilising. This has been a good indicator in China, but it’s too early in developed countries.</li>
<li>Business conditions PMIs stabilising/improving. They’ve improved in China but are still falling elsewhere.</li>
</ul>
Technical signs of a market bottom
Market bottoms usually come with a bunch of signs.
<ul>
<li>Extreme oversold conditions. This got a tick in March.</li>
<li>Apocalyptic investor sentiment. It’s very negative but maybe not apocalyptic yet.</li>
<li>Signs of falling downwards momentum. This may only become apparent on a re-test of the March low.</li>
</ul>
Signpost table
The following provides a summary. The key ones are in blue.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/4/8/444.png" alt="">
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/4/8/555.png" alt="">
Concluding comment
Many of these signposts tick off positively so we may have seen the low. But given the uncertainty around the length of the shutdown, risks of a second wave and very poor economic data to come it’s still too early to say that with confidence. Trying to time market bottoms is always very hard so a good approach for long term investors is to average in over several months.
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Dr SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital
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