The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.

Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.

The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.

The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.

Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.

The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.

The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.

Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.

Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.

The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.

Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.

Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.

Joel Robinson

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Some economists are concerned about the “wealth effect” of falling property prices. They need not be concerned about that. 
What should concern them is their disturbing lack of knowledge about residential real estate markets. They have misunderstood what’s happening with prices in the many different markets around Australia.
Bill Evans, high-profile economist from Westpac, is one of those who think “falling property prices” will affect consumer spending. He thinks the Reserve Bank will be forced to cut the official interest rate a couple of times this year because of this hypothetical impact of falling property prices.
Mainstream media, as if so often sadly the case, have given great credibility to these forecasts. Journalists have forgotten that Westpac, until last week, was predicting that the cash rate would not change this year and that the next move would be a rise. Now they’ve back-flipped. What does that say about their forecasting?
But the big issue is the lack of understanding about real estate markets. Like most economists, Evans and his cohorts turn their attention to residential property only occasionally, and, when they do, they generalise. They talk about “the Australian property market” and what’s happening with “Australian property prices”. This is a clue that they lack depth of knowledge.
This kind of generalisation is the curse of real estate consumers across the nation. It’s the source of much of the misinformation that permeates mainstream media and which confounds consumers.
Here’s the difference between those Westpac economists and the Hotspotting team: we spend all day, every day, researching residential markets. They do not.
And here’s what I know to be true: locations where property prices have fallen a lot are in the minority. Most markets around the nation have prices that are rising or are holding firm. 
In Hotspotting’s latest location-by-location analysis of sales activity and prices for every suburb and town across the nation, we have identified a number of “danger” markets – those where demand is falling, prices are down and vacancies are rising.
But these danger locations are greatly outnumbered by those where markets are rising. Our national survey finds only 8.5% of locations are negative – what we classify as “declining” or “danger” markets. By comparison, 20.5% of locations are strongly rising. The vast majority – the big lump in the middle – comprises markets where demand is steady and prices solid.
Here's what economists do: they look at a graph or table which describes “Australian property prices”. This is a figure from someone like CoreLogic which provides an average figure for the change in prices for the capital cities. Currently that’s a minus figure because of the weight of Sydney. So they declare that Australian property prices are falling and that this is a national problem.
Apparently, Australians will be so distressed by this that they’ll stop spending in supermarkets and retail stores. It’s a ludicrous proposition.
In Melbourne, only the top end of the market is sharply down. Undoubtedly, the Tooraks of this world have seen prices falling significantly. But Middle Melbourne is remaining very solid price-wise and the cheaper outer-ring suburbs still have rising prices. Most of the suburbs of humble Melton are up by more than 20%.
That’s why most research sources (not including CoreLogic) have Melbourne prices overall down only moderately or, in one case, slightly up.
Meanwhile, Regional Victoria is going ballistic. Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Pakenham, Officer, Warragul and dozens of other regional cities and towns have rising demand and very strong prices.
Hobart prices are still rising and Regional Tasmania is as buoyant as Regional Victoria. Both those regional markets are being supercharged by demand out of Melbourne.
Canberra is rock solid. As I wrote last week, it’s the strongest real estate economy in the nation and it’s doing the opposite to struggling Sydney.
Likewise, Regional NSW. There are growth markets spread right throughout the state. Newcastle and neighbouring LGAs like Lake Macquarie, Port Stephens and the Hunter Region municipalities have formed the strongest market in NSW in the past 12months.
Other important regional centres are rising, including Orange, Tamworth, Byron Bay, Dubbo and many of the smaller towns. Overall it’s a story of growth, in defiance of the Sydney trend.
Those past their best but still solid include Wollongong, Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie and the towns of the Southern Highlands.
Brisbane overall is not rising strongly with prices, but it’s not falling either – and individual pockets are out-performing. It’s not hard to find suburbs where median prices have risen in double digits in the past year.
The Sunshine Coast is Queensland’s strongest market, with top-end suburbs around Noosa particularly buoyant.
Central Queensland locations are recovering from the previous malaise induced by the mining sector, led by the strategic city of Mackay. Others rising from the previous downturn include Emerald, Rockhampton, Dalby, Chinchilla, Moranbah – and we’re now seeing the first evidence of recovery in Gladstone.
Key regional cities like Toowoomba and Cairns have steady markets. Only time will reveal the real estate impacts from Townsville’s floods.
Adelaide is one of the really solid markets in capital city Australia. Demand is steadily rising and, like Brisbane, the city has individual pockets that are out-performing. There’s no sign of falling values here.
Perth has been in downturn for the past four years, but no longer. All the figures show recovery is under way – vacancies down, rents starting to rise, sales activity trending up and the top-end suburbs showing good price growth.
The only markets of significance where major price decline is prevalent are Sydney and Darwin.
Darwin just can’t escape its malaise because the underlying economy is so weak. The Northern Territory is the only state or territory which failed to deliver population growth last year.
Sydney’s situation is heavily documented but very poorly reported. There are plenty of declining markets and more than a few danger ones. But there are still many markets where demand is solid and prices are resilient.
One situation that media has completely overlooked is the defiant performance of the apartment market. Sydney’s gradual decline, which started back in 2016 long before the royal commission and other distractions that economists think important, was precipitated by the market’s reaction of price levels. Affordability became an issue at all levels of the market. 
So now we have a situation where the cheaper products like apartments are still attracting demand and achieving good prices. Throughout inner and middle ring Sydney, there are many dozens of suburbs where the median house price is sharply down but the median apartment price is strongly up.
So where are all these Australians who are so afflicted by falling property prices that they’re going to hide their money under their beds and not spent. Outside of Sydney (but not all of Sydney) and Darwin, they really don’t exist.
And this is reflected in multiple surveys. The latest Westpac poll shows consumer confidence is up and is specifically not affected by all the negative media about house prices. The ME survey indicated most Australians expect house prices to stay solid or to rise this year and the Momentum Wealth survey found investors are planning to buy, with Perth and Brisbane their No.1 targets.
I think these thoughts from veteran real estate analyst Michael Matusik are also relevant: “It is somewhat sobering to find that the majority aren’t that caught up in all the incessant real estate chat. To most a house is their home and not something that needs a lot of day-to-day analysis or comment. The majority just roll their eyes at the daily house price indices. I am in that crowd.”
I, too, am in that crowd. The media and economists like Bill Evans misinterpret and over-estimate the impact of recent price decline on a relatively small number of Australians.
For most of us, a falling property market is simply not part of our day.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Westpac economist Bill Evans has the property market decline wrong: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
A Shakespearean character suggested (Henry VI, Part 2, Act IV, Scene 2), as a great way to improve the country: “First thing we do: let’s kill all the lawyers.”
While the idea has merit in 21st Century Australia, I think a better strategy would be to get rid of all the economists. A good method of dispatch would be to push them off a cliff, similar to the September cliff they’re all predicting as the next catastrophe to afflict Australia’s economy.
If there’s a more pointless and over-rated profession anywhere in society, I don’t know about it. These people continue to get paid, and they continue to feature daily in major media with their incessant “warnings”, despite their staggering ability to be wrong with most of their forecasts.
For many of our chattering economists, the meaning of life is their picture in the paper or a short grab on the evening television news. Some exhibit a need for daily exposure. How best to achieve that? Say something sensationally negative – the truth is optional and you can be sure that no journalist will ever check on your track record of getting things right, so credibility is unimportant. Just describing yourself as an economist is enough.
So when the impacts of Covid-19 first became apparent in February and March, the nation’s gaggle of chattering economists began predicting a collapse in real estate prices.
The people I call “the usual suspects”, the economists and independent ranters who always talk down property, began tipping house prices would fall at least 20% and some suggested even 30% or 40%.
Journalists, being the shallow creatures that they are, lapped it all up and rushed to print with sensationally negative headlines, without applying any scrutiny to the forecasters and their motives.
Four months later, some of those forecasters are retracting their earlier predictions. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital, always eager to be a real estate pessimist, recently recanted his 20% decline tip and suggested a more moderate outcome.
The boffins at UBS, who seldom see anything positive in real estate, recently admitted they’d got in wrong and that housing markets were holding up a lot better than they thought.
The latest data from both CoreLogic and SQM Research indicates that most of the markets across Australia still have house prices higher than they were at the start of 2020, in defiance of those dire forecasts.
But now the diehard doomsdayers have found a new catastrophe to obsess over: the September cliff.
The theory is that come the end of September, the banks and the federal government will flick a switch and stop supporting Australia.
The trigger here is that JobKeeper is scheduled to run until then and the banks have put a similar deadline on their extension of mortgage payment holidays to borrowers. So, when the government and banks suddenly stop caring about the nation, and themselves, and switch off their support, everything will fall off a cliff. Theoretically.
It’s a convenient scenario for pessimistic economists (is there any other type?) and journalists with a negative mindset (there is definitely no other type).
But there are serious flaws in the theory and I feel confident in suggesting that is simply won’t happen. There will be no cliff for prices to fall off at the end of September.
Here’s what’s wrong with the “September cliff” theory:-
· It assumes that everything depends on JobKeeper and mortgage holidays. It doesn’t – there’s a whole lot more in the mix.
· It assumes the Federal Government will suddenly stop caring about the national economy and simply switch off support in September. They won’t.
· It assumes banks will shoot themselves in the foot by abandoning their customers. They haven’t come this far in supporting their borrower customers to abandon them later.
· It assumes that nothing will change with business and employment between now and 30 September. But a lot is changing already, with restrictions easing, businesses re-opening and jobs re-appearing.
· It overlooks the extraordinary level of stimulus measures in play. Multiple booster measures from all levels of government have been activated and there is more to come. A $72 billion spend on infrastructure provides a prime example of the measures that will generate economic activity and jobs. The $25,000 grant for people to build homes is generating activity that has surpassed all expectations and the economic multiplier effect of residential construction is the second biggest of any industry sector in Australia.
· It overlooks the impact of the ongoing easing of restrictions. Before we get to the doomsday deadline, state borders will be open (most are already, notwithstanding the Victoria situation) and tourism will be pumping again. Australia are revelling in the new freedoms and this will help revive economies. The latest ABS data shows that retail spending is rising again, with a 17% increase in May.
· It overlooks the news that people who sought mortgage holidays are rapidly moving back to making mortgage payments. ANZ said in mid-June that a third of the customers who sought a holiday are already back making payments. The numbers of borrowers resuming payments is growing every week.
· It ignores the extraordinary resilience of real estate markets, which have a history of not only resisting economic downturns but leading national economic recovery. Real estate markets revel in defying the most dire forecasts of the chattering economists.
· It forgets the natural boost to real estate markets from the Spring selling season.
The “September cliff” theory will be forgotten even before we get to September. The people who made those forecasts will have forgotten they made them. For most of the talking heads, it’s nothing more than a soundbite, a publicity opportunity. Some of them don’t even believe their public statements.
It will join an already-long list of predictions that have been proven false since February. Every statistic that has been published to date – whether it be property prices, auction clearances rates, vacancy rates, retail spending, unemployment figures and GDP numbers – has been less dramatic than the media forecasts.
It’s time we stopped listening to the attention-seeking economists whose only objective is to gain media profile by feeding the 24-hour news cycle, with little regard to the consequences.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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The 'September Cliff' is just the latest property economic nonsense: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The key message for property investors right now is that there are many growth markets across Australia.
There’s a tendency in mainstream media to extrapolate the situations in Sydney and Melbourne to the whole nation. If the big cities are in decline, then Australian real estate is in decline, according to news media.
This is seldom true – and it’s certainly not the case right now. Some of our smaller capital cities are pumping strongly and, in particular, regional Australia has many growth markets.
Last week I made this comment: “Regional Queensland has achieved something that few jurisdictions across Australia have managed: it has maintained its previous high levels of well-performing markets in defiance of Covid-19.”
I wrote that I rated the Sunshine Coast one of the strongest economic and real estate stories in the nation and that it continues to produce solid results in its property markets.
The anecdotal evidence from people at the coalface of the Sunshine Coast property industry is that sales are happening, vacancies remain low and there’s no evidence of values falling.
The latest data on prices and vacancy rates confirms that – with evidence of notable growth pockets.
Most of the postcodes across the Sunshine Coast region, including Noosa (which is a separate local government area), have vacancy rates between 1% and 2%. While some of the capital city CBDs and tourism-dominated locations like Surfers Paradise have had big blowouts in their vacancies, the Sunshine Coast has resisted this trend.
Although tourism is an important industry to the Sunshine Coast, its economy is insulated by the ongoing massive spend on infrastructure, including the evolving medical precinct, the new CBD now under construction, the billion-dollar highway improvements, the upgrade of the local airport to international status and the subsea internet cable link to Asia – among other projects.
And this is bolstering the local property market.
The top end of the market in particular has been boosted, thanks in part of the influx of well-paid medical specialists working in the new medical precinct, based around the $2 billion university hospital.
The two most expensive suburbs in the region, Sunshine Beach and Minyama, have both experienced notable uplift in prices recently. The median house price for Sunshine Beach, just outside Noosa, has risen 16% in the latest quarter and 27% in annual terms, to reach $1.8 million. Minyama is up 7% in the most recent quarter and 23% annually – and typical houses are now above $1.1 million.
The median house price for Noosa Heads has risen 8% in the past year, including 1.4% in the most recent quarter.
Other locations throughout the Sunshine Coast region, including Mooloolaba, Maroochydore, Coolum and Pelican Waters, have recorded more moderate growth, but nevertheless have achieved price uplift in both the past 12 months and the most recent quarter – and a time when the big cities are feeling the negative impacts of Covid-19.
Keep that in mind the next time you hear one of our chattering economists telling us that “Australian property prices” are falling.
The Sunshine Coast is a standout example among many thriving regional markets.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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Sunshine Coast remains a standout market during COVID-19: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Good grief, do they ever learn? Or do they just not care?
They're declaring the "property boom" over, yet again.
And, yet again, it's based on a single figure for a single month from a single source, published in haste.
This is the fourth time (or is it the fifth?) the so-called boom has been pronounced dead within the past 12 months. This week I've observed radio news bulletins, online news services and newspapers making the claim, or otherwise placing great significance of an isolated statistic.
The alleged growth in Australian house prices in September was small, therefore it's all over, red rover.
To illustrate how silly this is, let me take you back four months.
Early in June, data was published indicating a decline in capital city prices in May. People rushed to be first to declare the end of the property boom.
They generated lots of headlines for themselves – which evidently was the only objective – but they got it horribly wrong.
They simply added to the great seething mass of misinformation which confuses and misleads real estate consumers – for no better reason than to develop their profiles or advance their businesses.
The organisation which made the biggest play for profile in June was an obscure valuation practice. We won't publish its name to protect the guilty. Early in June the firm issued a press release which sought to ensure everyone knew that it had been the first to declare that the market had peaked and the boom was over.
"This has been well and truly demonstrated now that the May figures are out," it shouted in its 3 June press release. "At the beginning of May, other forecasters were still looking for a rebound in activity in May following a weaker Easter period, but now it is clear that we were correct in calling a change in the market."
Well, actually, NO. They were wrong. Prices have continued to rise in Sydney and, to a lesser extent, Melbourne – and now other cities have begun to move (moderately), including Brisbane, Adelaide and Hobart.
Its mistake, apart from a shameless push for I-told-you-so publicity, was its reliance on a single data figure, describing a single month's price movement, from a single company. You would have to think they've been around real estate long enough to know that price graphs are never smooth and that a single month's data can be an aberration. That's particularly so for May, which often is a month in which the market dips slightly, but temporarily.
Even worse was basing an assessment on one figure, which describes the average change across a very large nation. That was naïve in the extreme. But they weren't alone.
Economists and financial analysts just can't resist preaching about real estate, notwithstanding their lack of expertise. So in June, a multi-national financial services corporation jumped on board and declared that "the housing boom is finally over". We'll overlook the reality that there was no housing boom, just a Sydney boom.
"If you're an investor, you've missed the boat," said one of their analysts, who put out a note to investors tell them that, without further interest rate cuts, the currently housing cycle was a dead duck.
So, four months later, here we are again. The commentators and analysts have forgotten June, or just don't care, and so have the media workers who publish their nonsense.
While the attention-seekers were clamouring this week to grab a bit of profile from the September price data, valuation firm Herron Todd White published the October edition of The Month in Review and made this pertinent observation: "There continues to be talk of the Sydney property boom, but not all markets can lay claim to this sort of activity. Our real estate is as varied as our landscape in Australia, and market performance is just as diverse."
It also said this: "It's funny. These almost daily calls of 'property bubble vs no property bubble' feel a bit like a couple of grade one school boys attempting classic sledges such as At least I'm not ugly and I know you are, but what am I?. It looks like Sydney and, to a lesser part, Melbourne are driving the property market agenda again. Let's just say that there are other markets outside of these that would really, really like to see some capital gains, but may be doomed to legislative tightening designed to cool New South Wales and Victoria. It's further evidence that, in our big nation, there is no such thing as an average property or a typical market."
So true. But try telling that to your (very) average economist, who knows little about real estate but a lot about generating cheap publicity.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can reach Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">twitter</a>.
 
 
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Apparently, the property boom is over – again

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The leading growth markets in Australia are now popping up in unexpected places.
Regional centres like Launceston and Townsville (above), as well as the affordable outer-ring precincts of our capital cities, dominate Hotspotting’s new National Top 10 list for municipalities with the highest number of growth suburbs.
This partly reflects the decrease in the number of rising markets in Sydney and Melbourne, with both the big cities still performing solidly but well past their peaks in terms of sales volumes. The attention is now shifting to other cities.
In the new Spring edition of The Price Predictor Index, the Moreton Bay Region in Brisbane’s north is the No.1 LGA in Australia for growth markets, having overtaken the Sunshine Coast. 
Moreton Bay LGA has 14 suburbs with upwardly-mobile markets, with buyers attracted by affordable prices, infrastructure and jobs nodes. Growth areas include Caboolture, Burpengary, Arana Hills, Bongaree, Deception Bay, Bray Park, Woorim and Warner. 
Morayfield is a key market, with sales around 170 per quarter, compared to 120-130 two years ago.
The Sunshine Coast LGA continues to feature strongly. It has 12 growth suburbs, while the neighbouring Noosa LGA has four. Growth stars include Coolum Beach where quarterly sales are up from around 70 to above 100. Caloundra and nearby Golden Beach are also thriving.
The Adelaide market gets very little national attention but it’s showing considerable resilience and there is growth potential in specific precincts. The Marion LGA in Adelaide’s south-west is the leading market in the South Australia capital, having lifted the number of growth suburbs in each of the past three quarterly surveys.
The Marion LGA, a middle-market area of Adelaide, now has nine rising suburbs, including Oaklands Park (median house price $470,000) which has lifted sales from 18 to 24 to 29 to 30 to 37 to 41 in the past six quarters. Other growth suburbs include Sheidow Park, Clovelly Park, Dover Gardens, Edwardstown and Glengowrie.
The Hobart market has captured national attention as homes sell quickly, rents rise at rates above the national average and price growth challenges the major cities. Within the Hobart metro area, the Clarence LGA is the market leader, although growth suburbs are spread across the city. 
Clarence, on the opposite side of the Derwent from the CBD, includes growth suburbs such as Geilston Bay, Bellerive, Lindisfarne, Rokeby, Risdon Vale and Warrane.
Launceston markets continue to grow in strength, but tend to be overlooked because of growing national focus on results in Hobart. Tasmania’s No.2 city has eight suburbs with growth markets, while the nearby West Tamar LGA has three. Affordable Invermay (median house price $230,000) typifies the growth in this region. Its sales levels have grown from 19 to 22 to 24 to 29 to 34 to 37 in the past six quarters, while sales in South Launceston have risen from 20 to 29 to 34 to 47 to 51.
Townsville in North Queensland is one of the nation’s comeback markets. It is showing increasing signs of recovery from years in which the usually-strong local economy struggled, thanks to the downturn in the resources sector and the closure of the city’s nickel refinery. 
The growing evidence of a revival is likely to gather pace as major events (such as the location of the headquarters for the $20 billion Adani mining project) start to take shape. On the back of improving economic prospects, Townsville now has six suburbs with rising markets. 
Perth too is mounting a comeback after four years in a slump and regions in the north of the metro area are leading the fightback. The Wanneroo LGA is  featuring strongly; it has six suburbs with growing sales activity - remarkable when you consider that the entire Perth metro area had zero growth suburbs only nine months ago. 
The growth markets include Alkimos, Carramar, Clarkson and Hocking. The Wanneroo LGA is the fast-growing municipality in WA and includes several new growth suburbs. As is often the case in such areas, vacancies are high in some postcodes but this will change as demand continues to grow. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Leading growth markets popping up in unexpected places: Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The core task for investors is to find the growth locations, preferably before values rise significantly.
It’s not an easy one because there’s a shortage of helpful information. Mostly the media and the research companies give us historical information and usually in a generalised way. 
This means they tell what’s happened recently, which doesn’t necessarily inform the future, and usually with a single growth figure to describe an entire major city.
But something that came recently from CoreLogic was a little more helpful, because it provided some segmentation of sub-markets. Rather than simply tell us that Sydney and Melbourne prices are falling, it acknowledged that this is only true of some market sectors – and that others are still rising.
There are some patterns with this data which are handy to observe and useful in deciding what happens next and where.
One of the things I know to be true, from a scary number of years of experience, is that up-cycles often/usually begin in the inner-city areas. Over time they ripple out to the middle-ring suburbs and latterly to the outer-ring areas.
Why is it so? One reason, probably the biggest single one, is that real estate markets are largely driven by local economic conditions – not by national factors like interest rate levels or taxation policies, but by what’s happening in the economy at a local level.
This helps to explain why Sydney and Melbourne, underpinned by the No.1 and No.2 economies in the nation, have had booms while the cities afflicted by the weakest of the state/territory economies, Perth and Darwin, have had markets in reverse.
When economies rise, the first people to notice are those in the business community – the ones earning the most money. They react before anyone else does and they tend to live in the millionaire suburbs. Those markets rise first and others follow over time.
When you get towards the end of the cycle, those early adopters have passed their peaks and it’s the cheaper areas on the fringes that are experiencing the busiest markets and the strongest annual price growth.
So, according to the recently-published CoreLogic figures, it’s overly simplistic to claim that Melbourne house prices are falling. CoreLogic’s analysis says that prices in the upper end of the market are down 3.5 percent (generally speaking), but prices at the affordable end are up more than 10 percent.
This correlates with Hotspotting research which indicates that the outer-ring precincts in the Greater Melbourne area – suburbs in LGAs like Hume, Whittlesea, Casey, Melton and Wyndham – have strong sales activity and price growth. And this is what we would expect at this point in the Melbourne cycle.
There’s a similar scenario in Sydney – the upper end price levels generally are falling but there’s still some growth in the cheaper outlying areas.
The pattern for Hobart is interesting and informative, because it suggests that the Tasmanian capital is still pumping but that the peak might be near. The top end of the Hobart market is still rising (up almost 10 percent) but the cheaper end is up a lot more (around 18 percent, according to these figures).
That suggests the market overall is still strong but the lower end is the strongest.
In terms of how all this informs the future, Perth is a good case study. When I recently looked at all the numbers for Perth, one of the things that stood out was that many of the million-dollars suburbs had recorded good growth in their median house prices but elsewhere this was not the case.
The CoreLogic figures would tend to confirm that, because they find that the upper end has risen but the cheaper end is still slightly in the negative.
This, taken with other information, confirms for me that Perth is moving into a recovery phase in response to improvements in the local economy – and, as I would expect, the upper end areas are the first to react.
I’ve seen evidence of a similar scenario in Adelaide, with many of the top end suburbs showing good annual price growth, ahead of what I expect to be a strong showing by the Adelaide market generally in the next 12-18 months.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Pinpointing where house values are rising and where they are falling

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Tim Lawless of CoreLogic wrote on Property Observer recently that roughly half the sub-regions of Australia have rising property prices, including about 40% of capital city sub-regions and 60% of those in regional Australia.
Those numbers paint a starkly different picture to the relentless daily line-up of click-bait headlines telling us that prices are falling across Australia.
Last week I highlighted areas around Melbourne and in regional Victoria near the capital city where prices have risen a lot in the past year and continue to rise strongly. Some of the growth rates are eye-boggling.
In contrast to headlines declaring that Melbourne values are falling by $1000 a week, I’ve found myriad suburbs right across the Melbourne metropolitan area where prices have grown more than 10 percent in the past 12 months and have also had growth in the latest quarter.
The standout sub-market with declining median prices is the top end – the suburbs with million-dollar median prices. Elsewhere, growth markets greatly outnumber those that are in decline, especially in the outer-ring areas.
Here’s another example of current strong growth: the Sunshine Coast.
I’ve just completed a research exercise which included making a list of regional Queensland locations where there’s been double-digit growth in median prices in the past year, plus meaningful growth in the most recent quarter.
Suburbs in the Sunshine Coast region dominate that list.
And I’m happy to say I predicted it. Based on the massive pipeline of infrastructure projects and other big developments, I’ve been shouting about looming growth in this market for the past two years.
When there’s $20 billion being invested in a relatively small regional city, price growth in the residential market is inevitable – provided developers don’t saturate the market with new product. To date, the Sunshine Coast has avoided the Gold Coast’s tendency towards over-supply.
So prices are growing. At a Sydney seminar last week I met a developer who had sold a Maroochydore penthouse for $6 million and an apartment on the floor below for $5.7 million. Those are startling numbers for this location.
Noosa, after a long period of under-achievement, has returned to growth recently. In annual terms, its median house price is up 14 percent, while units are up 12 percent, according to CoreLogic data. Noosaville and Tewantin have both grown 11 percent.
Nearby, Sunshine Beach is up 17 percent and the median house sells for around $1.4 million.
Heading south, Coolum Beach has risen 12 percent and nearby Mount Coolum is up 22 percent.
There is a long list of other Sunshine Coast locales with annual growth above 10 percent.
But the star performer is the upmarket water-based suburb of Minyama, where the median house price has risen 46 percent to $1.31 million, according to CoreLogic figures. Whenever I see a price growth statistic like that, I instantly think “statistical aberration” – usually caused by a small sales sample. But Minyama has recorded 60 sales in the past 12 months so the sample is not a problem. 
I checked other price data sources, which provide estimates of the median house price ranging from $1.25 million to $1.4 million. One records an annual growth rate of 46 percent and another says 49 percent, while a third source says the median price has risen around 8 percent in the past quarter alone. But other sources have more moderate price rates, so go figure.
Overall, it’s a strong picture of growth across this vibrant market.
Why is it so? Because billions are being pumped into this economy. 
The new medical precinct alone has been an enormous catalyst, including the $2 billion University Hospital and the adjoining private hospital, as well as smaller specialist facilities. 
These facilities have brought thousands of new residents to the Sunshine Coast, many of them well-paid and looking for quality homes.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Sunshine Coast a property price growth leader: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Media tends to measure markets by movements in median prices. But other measures of the health of major markets are worthy of attention, including sales volumes, vacancy rates and movements in rentals.
Rental data is often a forward-looking marker of things to come with prices. Sydney had a couple of years of major rental growth, but little in the way of price growth, before embarking on its price boom from 2013 to 2017. Hobart recorded very low vacancies and the nation’s biggest rental growth before starting the mini-boom on prices that’s still occurring.
So we should keep a close eye on what’s happening with vacancies and rents in the major cities.
The Domain Rental Report for the December 2018 Quarter shows that rents are stronger than sale prices in terms of growth in the past year. Six of the eight capital cities delivered growth in their rentals in 2018, both for houses and for apartments. Recent rental data from SQM Research has similar numbers.
There is, as always, a strong correlation between vacancy rates and rental growth.
The cities with the tightest rental markets, Hobart (0.4% vacancy, according to SQM) and Canberra (0.9%), are the ones with the highest annual growth in their rentals.
Other cities with low vacancies, Adelaide (1.2%) and Melbourne (1.9%), have also recorded solid growth in their rentals.
Two cities where vacancy rates have been high in the recent past but have improved recently - Brisbane (3.0%) and Perth (3.4%) - are also both delivering moderate growth in their rents.
The only cities where rents have fallen in the past year are those where vacancies are trending higher - Sydney (current vacancy rate 3.2%, up from 2.1% a year ago) and Darwin (4.0%, up from 2.8% a year ago).
Sydney house rents have declined annually for the first time in 12 years. Sydney is no longer the nation’s most expensive capital city to rent a house.
Canberra house rents have continued to rise on the back of low vacancies and the national capital is now the most expensive city for house rentals (according to Domain – the SQM Research figures differ on this point).
Brisbane house rents increased annually for the first time in almost three years, helped by improvement in the vacancy rate. This is one of numerous markers suggesting that Brisbane real estate will be stronger in 2019.
Hobart house rents continue to increase, but the rate of growth has slowed. There’s a similar trend with prices and this, combined with a gradual decline in sales activity recently, suggests the mini-boom in the Tasmanian capital has passed its peak. 
Perth house rents have increased annually for the first time in five years. “Coupled with improving yields, the city will become a more attractive option for investors,” says Domain. I tend to agree and note that there are other indicators of improvement in the Perth market, including increased sales activity and elevated prices in the million-dollar suburbs.
In the apartment markets, Sydney unit rents have declined for two consecutive quarters for the first time on record, with rents hitting an almost two-year low, Domain says.
Brisbane unit rents recorded the strongest annual increase in almost three years. I note that Moody’s Analytics is forecasting Brisbane will be a national leader on apartment price growth in the next year or two.
Canberra unit rents experienced the strongest annual growth the city has seen in almost two years, yet another marker of stronger performance in this market, which is underpinned by one of the nation’s best economies and lowest jobless rate.
Overall the rental data, alongside other figures, points to stronger markets this year in Canberra, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide – and confirms the decline in Sydney, while pointing a gradual wind-down in Hobart’s buoyant market.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Rental data provides clues for property price growth areas: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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This year we will learn, yet again, the simple truth that Australia is not a single property market.
You could be forgiven for thinking that the nation has just one united market, because most of the commentary in mainstream media discusses “the Australian property market” and what will happen to “Australian property prices”.
But success in 2018 will be achieved by those who understand that we do not have a single property market, but myriad different ones all doing their own thing, dictated by local conditions rather than national ones.
Have a look at the latest figures from the ABS on annual growth in dwelling prices in the eight state and territory capital cities in the past 12 months.
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1">Hobart rising and now the national leader with annual growth of 14 percent.</li>
<li class="li1">Canberra rising but still moderate, with growth at 7 percent.</li>
<li class="li1">Melbourne still strong, with annual growth at 13 percent.</li>
<li class="li1">Sydney fading, with the annual growth rate now in single digits.</li>
<li class="li1">Brisbane and Adelaide going nowhere fast, with growth around 3-4 percent.</li>
<li class="li1">Perth (down 2 percent) and Darwin (down 6 percent) still going backwards.</li>
</ul>
Across regional Australia there were multiple market scenarios, with some growing strongly (like Newcastle, Geelong and the Sunshine Coast), others showing moderate growth, many stagnating with little in the way of price growth, some falling moderately and some (notably resources-related markets) down a lot.
You could argue we have a five-speed property market in Australia.
But you’re still going to see twits standing up on ABC Television making statements like “property price growth will be zero this year” and “the national property boom is over”.
You will also read various members of the chattering economist class discussing Australia as a single market and making meaningless forecasts about the future of Australian house prices. 
These sad bastards just don’t know any better. They’re not real estate specialists and they only occasionally turn their attention to residential property, by calling up a couple of graphs on their computer screens to examine what’s happening in what they see as a single homogenous one-size-fits-all real estate industry.
Forecasting that “Australian property prices” will rise 3 percent in 2018 is a pointless exercise, quite useless for the average consumer. The Reserve Bank governor said as much in a speech late last year.
The coming year will have similar variations to the last, with Canberra behaving very differently to Sydney, and Melbourne moving in an opposite direction to Perth.
Even within a single city, there will be different scenarios paying out in various parts of the metropolitan area. 
In Brisbane, there will be good growth in some of the more affordable areas, not much action in the middle market and price decline in the inner-city apartment markets.
Perth generally is moving into a solid recovery phase, but it won’t be evenly spread across the metropolitan area. Vacancies remain very high in the inner-city apartment suburbs and out in suburbia some precincts are moving forward more strongly than others. 
There are a couple of middle-market areas doing well, the Melville and Stirling local governments areas, while more affordable precincts in the north are leading the fight-back, notably the Joondalup and Wanneroo LGAs.
Such is the reality of our myriad real estate markets. Feel free to ignore anyone who generalises.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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My 2018 message - Australia is not a single property market

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Two apparently contradictory things are happening in real estate – sales of residential land have fallen (a lot) but the prices being paid are rising (sharply).
In Sydney the rate of sale of residential lots has almost halved over three years, but prices (to quote a popular pun in real estate media) have gone through the roof.
How can that be? Do the laws of supply and demand no longer apply in Australia?
The answers to these questions lie at the heart of the affordability discussion.
And a clue to the answers lie in an announcement earlier this week: that a New South Wales state government decision is set to add as much as $50,000 to the cost of new house-and-land packages in Sydney.
Prices for residential allotments and new dwellings are rising so sharply because the costs of creating new shovel-ready land, and the homes that are built there, are constantly rising.
Those costs are escalating primarily because the housing industry is a beloved cash cow for politicians everywhere. All three levels of government milk the housing sector for revenue like there’s no tomorrow. 
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian came to power mouthing platitudes about making housing affordability one of her key priorities. But her government regularly announces decisions that make the problem worse.
Gladys is not alone. This is an issue across the nation. Every time a state or territory government that brings down an annual budget, affordability gets worse because there are always new taxes, fees and charges imposed on the industry that creates dwellings for Australian households.
On 19 February The Australian reported that “house prices on greenfield sites in Sydney could rise by as much as $50,000 following the NSW Government’s decision to uncap infrastructure levies on developers”.
It reported: “The government is about to lift the cap on section 94 levies — how much councils charge developers for infrastructure. A recent application by Blacktown council for the Marsden Park development, successful with the government’s Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal, was for the $30,000 per home cap to be lifted to $87,000.
“In August, the UDIA and the Property Council wrote to the Premier saying: “Housing affordability is one of the NSW government’s three chief priorities announced when you became Premier this year. However there are several recent policy initiatives from the government that run contrary to achieving this outcome looking ahead. Changes to biodiversity regulations ... could add between $20,000 and $30,000 per lot while uncapping section 94 could add anywhere between $30,000 to $80,000 per dwelling.’’
When you understand that these decisions are a few among many that add to the cost structure of those who create new dwellings, you begin to see why real estate is so much more expensive in Sydney than elsewhere.
The latest Residential Land Report published by the Housing Industry Association shows that the median lot price in Sydney is more than double those in Brisbane and Adelaide, almost four times the median price in Hobart, and 55% higher than in Melbourne.
The report found that the median vacant residential land lot price nationally hit an all-time high of $267,368 in the September 2017 Quarter, up 10.9 per cent on the same period in 2016.
But land prices rose faster in the capital cities, up 12.8 per cent annually on average.
Sydney was the most expensive capital with the cost per square metre at $1,051, followed by Perth ($752), Melbourne ($737) and Adelaide ($637), while Hobart was the cheapest ($180).
HIA senior economist Shane Garrett says supply is struggling to keep pace with demand, leading to greater housing affordability issues.
“The high cost of new residential land is at the heart of Australia’s housing affordability crisis,” he says. “The housing industry’s ability to ramp up the supply of new dwellings as demand dictates is hampered by the inconsistency of the land supply pipeline. The time it takes for land to be made available to builders is unnecessarily long.”
These delays add to costs. Mix in the constant intrusion of new taxes, fees and charges, and you have the nub of the affordability issue.
It’s easy to see why it’s difficult for find an affordable house in Sydney, when you pay $480,000 for the typical home site, even though the average lot size keeps gets smaller – and despite the reality that the number of lot sales fell to below 250,000 in the September 2017 Quarter, compared to around 470,000 in the December 2014 Quarter (but the median price has risen from $340,000 to $480,000 in that time).
In Melbourne you pay $310,000 for the typical block of land, before considering the cost of building the house.
“The ability of new home building activity to respond to this increased demand has been held back by insufficient supply of shovel-ready residential land,” says the Residential Land Report.
So it means that the number of land sales has dropped not because of lower demand, but because of lower supply. That shortage, plus the rising cost structures imposed by state governments and local councils, means prices rise relentlessly.
In capital city Australia, the number of lot sales peaked in mid-2015 and has been trending steadily downwards ever since. But the median lot price has risen from around $250,000 to over $310,000 in that time frame.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Terry Ryder

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