Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

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"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

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The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Terry Ryder

<html><body>
As the ripple effect clicks into action, markets in our major cities are shifting.
A standard pattern in property cycles is that an upward movement starts in the Top End suburbs and gradually ripples out to the middle and outer ring suburbs.
We’re seeing this playing out in Sydney and Melbourne as 2014 winds on.
The pattern of activity in Sydney shows that sales levels in many of the millionaire suburbs have tapered off. In the Price Predictor Index, which tracks sales volumes in cities and towns across Australia, many of the Top End suburbs in Sydney have been downgraded.
But several markets in the middle and outer ring areas have been upgraded, because sales activity has picked up.
The Sydney precincts that still have strong growth momentum are mostly in the far west and south-west. The municipalities centred on Parramatta, Blacktown, Penrith, Liverpool, Campbelltown and Camden have numerous suburbs with rising activity levels.
The pattern is similar in Melbourne – where the market with the strongest growth pattern is the Mornington Peninsula.
In Brisbane and Adelaide, which are less advanced in the property cycle from the two biggest cities, we’re also seeing middle ring and outer ring suburbs putting their hands up.
Brisbane’s run, which started with the inner and middle-ring suburbs north of the CBD, as well as the inner-city apartment market, is starting to spread. The Moreton Bay municipality, which encompasses the northern growth corridor heading up towards the Sunshine Coast, has emerged strongly as a growth market.
So too has Logan City, which provides a suburban bridge between Brisbane City and the Gold Coast in the south. Ipswich, in the far south-west, is lagging a little, but starting to show signs of life.
Adelaide is being largely overlooked in discussions about property booms, but the South Australian capital is on a pronounced upward trajectory, with rising sales volumes evident since the start of the year.
Based on sales volumes in the June quarter, which point to price reactions later in the year, the growth markets in Adelaide are all bottom end and middle market. It’s the more affordable areas leading the city’s charge.
The Onkaparinga local government area in the far south, which has been one of the few population growth stars in South Australia, is once again a standout. This includes affordable seaside suburbs like Aldinga Beach and Seaford.
In fact, we have rated Aldinga Beach in the Price Predictor Index as one of the top five growth markets in the nation, with sales levels doubling in the past 15 months.
Another of the national top five is the much-maligned south-west Sydney suburb of Macquarie Fields, which is known to many for all the wrong reasons (including the 2005 riots). But sales rates have almost doubled in past year or so and that generated a 7% rise in its median house price in the June quarter.
Macquarie Fields is one of many suburbs in the Camden and Campbelltown LGAs where sales activity has risen, as the market momentum has switched from the silvertails to the fibro dwellers.
You can contact Terry via  <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Which middle and outer ring suburbs will benefit from the market's ripple effect?

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Some years ago I published a report called "Iconomics" – the economics of iconic real estate locations or situations. It used research to show that many of Australia’s most iconic investments were duds.
Apartments at Noosa Heads were at the top of my list of iconic failures – and today, despite some value growth in the past 12 months, the typical Noosa unit is still worth considerably less than it was 10 years ago.
On average, Noosa apartments have fallen in value at a rate of 3% per year for the past decade. It’s the ultimate real estate lemon among our iconic locations.
Surfers Paradise apartments have been little better. Despite all the clamour and propaganda about the recovery of the Gold Coast market, there has been no growth in the past 12 months in the median unit price in Surfers Paradise. Prices remain well below the levels of five years ago.
The New South Wales counterpart of these iconic flops is <a href="/news">Byron Bay</a>, a favoured burial ground for the money of people with way too much income and not nearly enough nous.
I was prompted to return to this report by another iconic loser, The Australian newspaper, which recently declared “a boom in Byron”.
What prompted this rather big statement about a market that has delivered almost zero growth for 10 years? It was a press release from the developer of a small project described as “a luxury beachfront development”.
The development had sold five apartments off the plan and that, apparently, constituted a boom. Clearly, Byron is growing off a very small base.
The research shows that Byron Bay prices have spent more time going backwards than forwards in the past decade. House prices have collapsed several times in the past 10 years, including double-digit declines in 2006, 2009-2010 and 2012-2013.
Over the past three years, the Byron median house price has dropped by an average 3.4% per year. The long-term growth rate, the average annual growth over 10 years, is marginally better than Surfers Paradise – about 2% per year.
Similar to houses, the median price for units remains lower than three years ago and the average growth rate over five years is basically zero.
Australian Property Monitors figures indicate the typical Byron Bay apartment placed on the market takes almost a year to find a buyer, while houses typically take seven to eight months to sell.
The Australian quoted local agents as claiming that sales turnover in Byron Bay is up 150% on a year ago. But a quick check of the latest data shows no change at all in overall sales volumes compared to a year ago – and for houses there has actually been a small decline in sales volumes.
The problem for Byron is that there is no economic substance to the iconic status. Investing in Byron is like buying in a mining town – it’s a one-industry town.
And, like mining, tourism is volatile and vulnerable. There can be sharp price peaks but they are always – always – followed by a trough of equal or greater magnitude.
I would urge investors to not be deluded by headlines proclaiming a property boom in Byron.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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There's no boom in Byron Bay

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So many people have bad experiences with property investment. It happens, I believe, because Australians are fed so much misinformation.
Here’s the deadly formula that leads people to buy in the wrong place at the wrong time:
<ul>
<li>Writers on real estate who know little about real estate.</li>
<li>Media outlets which do little more than re-cycle press releases.</li>
<li>Researchers who don’t clean up the statistical absurdities spat out of their computers.</li>
</ul>
Mix those ingredients together and it’s a recipe likely to poison, rather than nourish, the finances of anyone who reads the resulting article and acts on the “advice”.
Here’s a stunning example published this week by a real estate magazine. The magazine took some figures from a research organisation that tends to be careless about its data in its haste to generate profile and it came up with this headline: ‘10 scorching hot suburbs for cash flow hunters’.
Top of its list was a town in Tasmania called Queenstown. If there’s a more depressing town in Australia or a more depressed property market, please tell me about it. The town resembles the film set for a western movie, with tumbleweeds in the main street.
The median house price ($70,000) says a lot. It’s 12% lower that it was a year ago. It’s lower than it was three years ago. Hell, it’s even lower than it was five years ago, having dropped an average of 3% per year since 2009. The typical house on the market takes nine months to sell.
Remember, a national magazine has placed this town at the top of its list of “cash flow hotspots”, even though the vacancy rate is 15% so the chances of achieving any cash flow at all are near zero.
But wait, there’s more.
The top 10 list of scorching hot suburbs recommended to investors also includes Kambalda in Western Australia. This is a godforsaken mining town in a “semi-arid environment” 600 kilometres east of Perth, split into two town sites 4 kilometres apart. The median price is $150,000, after a 19% decline in the past 12 months. Prices have fallen at an average rate of 6.5% per year over the past five years. If you have a house to sell there, expect to wait eight months.
And if you’re expecting scorching hot cash flow, the vacancy rate of 20% might present a problem.
Keep in mind that the magazine said all of its top 10 scorching hot suburbs were places “where rental yields are strong despite the solid growth in property prices”.
Another of the suburbs listed among the top 10 is described as “Maluwa Bay” in New South Wales. I’ve searched but cannot find a place with that name.
There is a Malua Bay, a small town on the South Coast of NSW where the average house takes almost a year to sell and where the long-term capital growth rate is zero. Sorry, that’s not fair – it’s 0.1%, which is the average annual growth in prices over the past 10 years.
That’s so scorching hot I can feel the heat all the way up here in Queensland.
The magazine lists the median weekly rent in this place as $925 per week, but that is a statistical error commonly made by the research source used by the magazine – whereby they list the holiday rental rate, rather than the rental rate for permanent tenants, and come up with a median yield which assumes properties are occupied by tourists 52 weeks of the year, which of course they are not.
The median weekly rent for Malua Bay is actually $350 per week and anyway buying there would be seriously into negatively geared territory. So, no cash flow there, either.
I could go on, but you get the picture. This is the worst kind of misinformation, presented by a national magazine as credible advice to property investors.
God help anyone who bases an investment decision on this disgraceful piece of non-journalism.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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The deadly formula of bad investment advice

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It makes absolute sense that a parliamentary committee would propose hitting foreign investors with extra fees.
If politicians are silly enough to bring on a lengthy, costly, pointless inquiry into a mythical problem (housing affordability), it follows that they would come up with “solutions” that are equally ineffectual.
The idea which reportedly is being considered by the parliamentary committee investigating housing affordability is to charge foreign buyers of Australian property extra stamp duty or other additional fees.
The “logic” goes like this: there is an affordability crisis; foreign investors are causing it and therefore if we hit foreign buyers with lots of extra costs they’ll all go away and there won’t be a problem any more.
Housing will be affordable once again and young Australians will all live happily every after.
Here’s the problem with the solution: we don’t have an affordability crisis, foreign investors are not pricing young Australians out of the market and charging them additional stamp duty will not have the slightest impact on the cost of dwellings for first home buyers.
The Reserve Bank and many commentators from the property research sector have said they believe the impact of foreign buyers is being overstated. I think they’re right.
None of that should prevent the committee from proceeding with the idea of punishing foreign investors. This whole exercise, remember, is being run according to the 'Boys Own Manual of Bureaucratic Smokescreens' written by Sir Humphrey Appleby.
Foreigners account for a small percentage of residential property sales. Their numbers are dwarfed by local investors and in particular by the most powerful force in Australian real estate, home buyers other than first home buyers.
Foreigners are not out-bidding Australians at Sydney and Melbourne auctions because foreigners are restricted in what they are allowed to buy (although there are claims they are sidestepping the rules in the some cases). The “debate” has got to the point where anyone Asian-looking who buys at auction is deemed to be a foreign investor.
Most foreign buyers are purchasing off the plan apartments in locations such as inner city Melbourne and the Gold Coast. These places are not first homebuyer territory so they are not competing with young Aussie wannabes.
My interpretation is that the impact of foreign investors on Australian house prices is close to zero.
Here’s the great irony in all this: if you really wanted to bring down the price of city real estate, you should be providing incentives for foreigners to buy off the plan apartments, not disincentives.
The only way to reduce property values is to create a massive oversupply. Simply increasing supply a little won’t do it. You need a serious glut, with vacancies at 10% or 15%.
The only markets around Australia where values have dropped a lot (such as mining towns and resources regional centres) are locations with major vacancies caused by oversupply.
Several of the inner city markets in our biggest cities already have high vacancies but developers are bringing on more and more new towers. Why? Because they think they can flog them to foreign investors. At least half of the apartments being built around Australia are being developed by Asian companies.
These apartment towers are not being built for Aussie first home buyers or Aussie buyers of any genre. They’re being built for gullible Chinese investors. Some of our cities, headed by Melbourne, will end up with scary oversupplies, big enough to crash rentals and prices – and not just in the inner city areas.
If politicians scare off foreign investors by hitting them with onerous charges, many highrise developments will be scrapped. No oversupply, no collapsing property values, no cheap dwellings for first home buyers – and, incidentally, no construction boom and none of the jobs it would generate.
On that basis, I think deterring foreign investors is a good idea – not because it will help housing affordability but because it will prevent a disastrous oversupply of apartments in Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, the Gold Coast and, eventually, Sydney.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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Hitting foreign buyers with extra fees is an ineffectual solution to a mythical problem

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An announcement this week gave hope to all those investors who own properties in mining centres.
Indian mining company Adani started advertising the thousands of jobs that will come with its $16 billion Carmichael coal mine in Central Queensland.
It’s a further indication that Adani is keen to move ahead quickly with its project, which will include the mine, plus rail links and export port facilities.
Every day I receive emails from people who own investment properties in places like <a href="/news">Moranbah</a>, <a href="/news">Emerald</a>, <a href="/news">Blackwater</a>, <a href="/news">Mudgee</a> and the towns of the Hunter Valley.
These places have lots in common. They’re all towns where property markets boomed when coal mining was thriving, with rents and property values rising strongly. Then two things happened: the coal sector turned south just as developers were heading north. Demand fell just as supply was rising.
Big vacancies caused rents to fall and property values followed. If you bought in any of these places two years ago, you will be feeling lots of financial pain.
Moranbah’s median price has dropped 40% in the past 12 months and rents are about one-third of their peak levels.
The common dilemma expressed in so many of those emails is this: should I cut my losses and sell, or should I hold on and hope it improves? One correspondent this week suggested things might be turning around in Moranbah but asked: “Is it just wishful thinking?”
The Adani announcement that expressions of interest are open for jobs on its Carmichael mine suggests that hope is not unreasonable.
Adani, which has state and federal approvals for its Galilee Basin mine, is planning to employ up to 5,000 people during the construction phase and 4,000 more during the mine's operation.
A key beneficiary will be Emerald, a regional centre which sits amid the Galilee Basin to the west and the Bowen Basin to the east. Lots of coal, lots of big plans, but not much action at present.
I’ve often said to people: it will only require one of the half dozen proposed mega projects in the Galilee Basin to go ahead, for Emerald’s market to come storming back. I’ve always thought the Carmichael mine was the most likely to go first, because Adani wants the coal to provide for its own needs (its Indian power stations) rather than to supply the depressed global market.
The problem for investors sitting on empty rental properties is that these huge projects are slow-moving events. You need lots of patience and nerves of steel.
But this is life in mining towns. It’s not a new phenomenon. This is not the first time Moranbah has fallen into a trough (althought this one is deeper than any of the previous). It’s not the first time a boom in Gladstone has been followed by a bust.
Gladstone’s market experienced a major peak in 2008, followed by a couple of years of declining values, before rising to another peak in 2012, followed the another period of decline.
Mudgee in New South Wales had a peak in 2007, falling prices in 2008 and 2009, another peak in 2010, decline in 2001, another peak in 2013 and now another decline. The price graph for Mudgee looks like a mountain range.
Ditto Muswellbrook: since 2006 it’s been minor peak, minor trough, minor peak, mknor trough, major peak (2012), major trough (now).
When prices rise strongly in markets like this, the market always “give some back” before moving into the next up-cycle. Usually the market gives back less than it gained earlier, so the overall trend is upwards.
If you don’t have the temperament to deal with this kind of volatility, it’s best to stay out of resources-related markets.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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The announcement that gave hope to property investors in mining towns

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Terry Ryder's top 10 Queensland hotspots

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I’m seeing a rising tide of media talk that the Gladstone market has bottomed and now might be a wonderful time to buy there in readiness for the next up cycle.
This is very bad advice from people who will earn money if investors act on it and buy Gladstone real estate.
The worst is yet to come for Gladstone. The bottom won’t be reached until the three big gas projects finish construction and around 8,000 workers leave town. Only then will we see the how deep the Gladstone downturn can go.
The current situation is a vacancy rate of 6%, according to SQM Research. This is a lot better than the 10% vacancies at the start of the year and this, together with some mildly encouraging price statistics in a June Quarter report from the Real Estate Institute of Queensland, is seen by some as a sign that the market has turned the corner.
“Market stabilises in Gladstone,” said one newspaper headline, with market professionals quoted in the article claiming that Gladstone was “on track to bounce back amid growing confidence”.
Somewhat more realistic is the assessment from the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, which has forecast a “jobs crisis” in Gladstone. It says there is already a “massive contraction in jobs in Gladstone industry” and it will get worse because of the “soon-to-happen mass exodus of 8,000 workers on the Curtis Island projects”.
The Curtis Island projects are the three processing plants which will convert coal seam gas to Liquefied natural gas. They represent investment totalling about $60 billion and are all well advanced in their construction phases.
You’d think the Gladstone property market would be pumping with all that economic stimulus, wouldn’t you? I had an email recently from someone who had bought there a couple of years ago and was “not happy” because the porperty had lost $50,000 off its market value. “What happened to Gladstone?” was the plaintive cry.
I’ll tell you what happened to Gladstone. Idiot developers happened to Gladstone. The visited a construction blitzkrieg on the central Queensland city, without too much regard to what their competition was doing.
They build far too much new dwelling stock, even for the current construction phase of the major projects, without considering what would happen to market demand when the construction ended and all those thousands of building workers left town in search of the next boom.
So those who own Gladstone investment properties, and are feeling uncomfortable right now, have more pain to come.
But you don’t buy real estate in resources towns unless you have the temperament and financial resources to ride the peaks and troughs. Gladstone has had previous booms, and those booms were followed by busts. Such is life in mining towns and regional centres reliant on the resources sector. If you’re not willing to tolerate that volatility, you shouldn’t buy in these places.
Even with the decline in values in resources locations in the past 12-18 months, the fact remains that the highest capital growth rates in Australia – by far – are in mining towns and resources regional centres. The capital growth rates (average annual rise in median house prices over the past 10 years) in places like <a href="/news">Port Hedland</a> and <a href="/news">Newman </a>in Western Australia have dropped markedly in the past couple of years - but they remain the highest capital growth rates in the nation.
If you buy in these places (and I personally would not) you have to be patience, resilient and able to accept the volatility of markets in high-risk locations.
Gladstone has a huge future. I see it as Australia’s leading industrial city. Those who own property there will get growth in coming years. But before we get to that point, there will be more pain.
So, no, now is not the time to buy there. The market will fall further. Nor is it a good time to buy in places like Port Hedland or <a href="/news">Karratha</a>, because those markets are declining also and have not yet touched bottom.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
Picture courtesy of Wikimedia Commons. 
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The worst is yet to come for Gladstone

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There’s a strong link between tourism and real estate. People idling in idyllic environments like to tyre-kick real estate and often, against their better judgment, end up doing something silly - like buying an off the plan apartment as their dream holiday home.
It's so easy to be seduced into un-scheduled spending amid holiday euphoria. It's not so much “buy in haste and repent at leisure”, as buy while at leisure and repent in haste when you get back home and reality sets in.
Two of real estate's biggest lemons, Surfers Paradise units and Noosa Heads units, have been popular targets by interstate or overseas tourists who probably wish they’d stayed home.
So consider this scenario. The Reserve Bank is concerned about the economy, unsure of what will happen next, particularly after the recent uptick in unemployment. As it sees it, the economy is in transition and needs sectors other than resources to do some heavy lifting.
The RBA would also like to see a lower Australian dollar. Its recent strength has hurt export-oriented industries and undermined economic growth. It’s trying to talk it down, but with minimal effect.
All of which suggests the next movement in interest rates will be down. According to reports, the markets think so. Reductions in interest rates are likely to bring the dollar lower - and a core beneficiary of that will be inbound tourism.
This possibility comes at a time when international tourism is already in a recovery phase. We also have rising foreign investment in property, especially from Asia. The two things are moving forward hand in hand.
As Chinese tourism to Australia grows, Chinese interest in our real estate will grow, regardless of the delirious worldview of Clive Palmer – still the 2014 frontrunner for my coveted Goose of the Year award.
This inspires the question: which markets are most likely to rise as this phenomenon gathers speed?
In the past I've been reluctant to advocate investment in markets based on tourism economies. Tourism is a volatile sector, prone to devastation by adverse weather events, economic uncertainty and international incidents.
Some of the worst performing markets in the past five years have been tourism-based locations in Queensland. Noosa's market performance has been pitiful. The Whitsundays region has been little better.
When tourism downturn has been mixed with other powerful elements, such as an over-supply of apartments, the outcome has been sharply falling values. Those who own property on the Gold Coast and in Cairns will know the pain this can cause.
So we're looking for some safeguards - places likely to benefit from an uptick in international tourists, which also have an additional element, an X factor. In residential real estate, the most powerful X factor is infrastructure spending.
This is why some of those Queensland locations which have performed so badly in the past five years are now looking good bets. Prices are now attractive, the oversupply has been soaked up, tourism is improving – and, above all, there is significant spending on infrastructure, coupled with local efforts to broaden the economic base.
The two standout locations in this regard are Cairns and the Sunshine Coast. I write about Cairns a lot, because this is one Australian real estate’s great future prospects – attractively priced, great rental yields and strong growth drivers.
The Sunshine Coast doesn’t offer the same high rental returns, but is otherwise a great place for investors to consider.
You can contact Terry via  <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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Which markets will benefit the most from international tourism?

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It’s extraordinary to think there are still advisors out there telling consumers that strong capital growth and high rental yields are mutually exclusive concepts. Even more extraordinary, people pay fees for this “advice”.
A recent article in The Australian allowed a property ‘advisor’ to pontificate at length about investors buying the “wrong” assets because they offered high rental yields.
The subtext was that high- yielding properties were inferior because if they had a high rental returns they couldn’t possibly provide good capital growth and that quality assets, by definition, provided low income returns. And that quality meant expensive.
This ‘advisor’ said that sensible investors would buy expensive properties that are heavily into negative cashflow territory, requiring the investor to put in $400 to $500 a month to cover the shortfall between income and cost.
“A good property invariably has a low rental yield,” said the ‘advisor’.
This definitely gets my vote for worst advice of the year so far. Where do they get their information? Do they do any research at all, or do they simply indulge their propensity for real estate snobbery? God help anyone silly enough to listen to them.
Exiting pixieland and entering the real world, those who know what to buy and where to buy it can readily achieve strong capital growth on property that pays its own way.
Real estate investors can have their cake and eat it too. This is why the nagging debate about the rights and wrongs of negative gearing always leaves me shaking my head. Negative gearing shouldn’t be an issue because switched-on investors don’t buy loss-making assets.
They buy properties that are cashflow positive, or at least cashflow neutral, in locations with the growth drivers to provide good capital growth. Australia abounds with such opportunities.
It’s achievable in capital cities and it’s achievable in substantial regional centres with well-rounded economies and low-risk property markets.
Every year the Hotspotting team conducts suburb by suburb research for all locations across Australia to discover which locations provide the best long-term growth. We’ve been doing this for the past five years. We construct tables for the top 20 and the bottom 20 in each city.
On most occasions – not  all, but most – the results show that the cheaper areas of our capital cities provide the best long-term growth rates. That’s a very general statement and behind it there are all kinds of different situations. Real estate is full of aberrations.
But it’s rare for the so-called prime suburbs to deliver the best capital growth rates. In most instances, you are more likely to find the most expensive suburbs on the bottom 20 list than the top 20 list.
I’ve often read commentators claiming that the best – indeed, the only – place to invest in Australia is prime Sydney. Our research shows that the opposite is true. Sydney is the under-achiever of big city Australia. Despite the high price growth of the past 12-18 months, Sydney still has the worst capital growth rates in capital city Australia, except for struggling Canberra.
Sydney’s best suburbs for capital growth would make the bottom 20 lists in many other cities.
By far the best growth rates (the average annual rise over the past 10 years) have been achieved by Darwin and Perth. Darwin also has the highest rents among the capital cities – which means Darwin has delivered the best capital growth and the best rental returns among the capital cities. This contradicts the notion that you have to accept a low rental return to achieve good capital growth.
The cheaper areas of our capital cities also able to provide opportunities to buy properties with initial rental yields above 6%. The best of our regional cities can deliver 7% plus rental returns as well as strong capital growth prospects.
Cairns is a great example of this. You can find yields in the 7% to 8% range in a city that’s on a serious growth path.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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High yields or capital growth? Investors can have their cake and eat it too

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A story that caught my eye this week proclaimed a building boom in the City of Blacktown in Sydney’s west.
My first reaction was gratification, because for years I’ve promoted Blacktown as one of Sydney’s underrated growth markets – and in recent times it has delivered on its promise, with state-leading population growth and capital growth right up with the best in Sydney. A lift in development approvals makes sense.
My second reaction was concern, because the level of building approvals in the past two financial years raises the prospect of the greatest risk hovering above property markets around Australia – oversupply.
While building and developer groups continue to peddle their political catchcry of shortage, unsupported by any evidence, the reality is that the opposite problem is the greatest threat to residential markets.
There is no bubble in Australian real estate and the chances of prices collapsing for this reason are zero.
But there is a risk of serious decline in major markets because of oversupply.
We have some stark recent examples of what can happen to markets when developers build too many dwellings.
One is provided by Gladstone, which has the most compelling demand factors ever visited on a regional city in Australia. Sixty billion dollars in major construction projects and tens of thousands of new jobs and yet the market has crashed. Oversupply can override the most powerful of growth drivers.
Another example is the Gold Coast. This wacky theme park for overseas tourists and property speculators has just emerged from five years of declining values for a single reason: oversupply created by developers who let their egos do the decision-making. In most locations values are still below those of five years ago (although that is set to change as the Gold Coast moves into a growth phase).
The next big surplus scenario is now being enacted in downtown Melbourne, with a looming market disaster being facilitated by Australia’s worst ever planning minister, Matthew Guy. I can envisage a time when property owners in inner-city Melbourne mount a class action to sue Guy for destroying their property values by not only approving but encouraging the greatest apartment glut since federation.
But Melbourne is likely to have plenty of company. Every CBD and near-city market in capital city Australia has an existing oversupply or is heading towards one. The Gold Coast has finally absorbed a five-year surplus of highrise units but developers are already working feverishly on the next one, in the apparent belief that the Commonwealth Games and Chinese investors will cover their butts.
This spotlights an issue many investors overlook when considering a location. They’ll examine many factors but fail to check out the vacancy rate. Even those that do are at risk, because few think about future supply.
Investors must check current vacancies but also examine building approval figures. A major uplift in residential approvals in the most recent financial year can provide a clue to future over-supply.
A case in point is Rockhampton in Queensland. I’m a fan of this place because it has economic diversity, less reliance on resources than neighbouring Mackay and Gladstone, lots of affordable dwellings and strong rental yields. There’s plenty of infrastructure and development happening.
Rockhampton has a strong future. But my one nagging concern has been the level of recent building approvals. Recently those high levels of new dwellings have started to push up residential vacancies.
Back to the City of Blacktown, where close to $1 billion in new developments was approved by the council in 2013-14. In each of the 2011 and 2012 financial years, dwelling approvals numbered around 1,400. In both the 2013 and 2104 financial years, approvals have been around 2,100 – with a particularly big increase in approvals for apartments.
In the past couple of years, development approvals for the Blacktown LGA have been the highest in Sydney metropolitan area, except for Sydney City. Blacktown has been well ahead of Parramatta and Penrith.
This reflects Blacktown’s status as the population growth leader in NSW, as well as a centre for good infrastructure, transport links, new development and jobs growth. It will probably attract plenty of benefits from the Badgerys Creek airport development.
But investors would be wise to keep on eye on dwelling supply. Currently the vacancy rate for the Blacktown postcode is just 1.2%, according to SQM Research. But that could change – and quickly.
You can contact Terry via  <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
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Terry Ryder

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