Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

&nbsp;

Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.

The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.

The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.

The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]

Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.

Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.

Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]

Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.

“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.

“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”

“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.” 
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]

The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.

Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.

The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.

The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]

Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.

“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.

“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”

A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.

That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.

The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]

According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.

Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.

The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.

The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.

That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.

The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]

The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.

“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.

“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”

The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]

Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.

The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.

Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]

Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.

Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.

“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.

He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.

“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.

“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.

Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.

Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.

Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.

The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]

Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more international and domestic flights.

Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.

Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.

The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.

The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" />

According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”

The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.

The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.

Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.

“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.

The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.

The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" />

The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.

“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.

According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.

“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.

“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”

The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.

Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.

&nbsp;

The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" />

St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.

Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.

The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.

More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.

First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

Terry Ryder

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As the ripple effect clicks into action, markets in our major cities are shifting.
A standard pattern in property cycles is that an upward movement starts in the Top End suburbs and gradually ripples out to the middle and outer ring suburbs.
We’re seeing this playing out in Sydney and Melbourne as 2014 winds on.
The pattern of activity in Sydney shows that sales levels in many of the millionaire suburbs have tapered off. In the Price Predictor Index, which tracks sales volumes in cities and towns across Australia, many of the Top End suburbs in Sydney have been downgraded.
But several markets in the middle and outer ring areas have been upgraded, because sales activity has picked up.
The Sydney precincts that still have strong growth momentum are mostly in the far west and south-west. The municipalities centred on Parramatta, Blacktown, Penrith, Liverpool, Campbelltown and Camden have numerous suburbs with rising activity levels.
The pattern is similar in Melbourne – where the market with the strongest growth pattern is the Mornington Peninsula.
In Brisbane and Adelaide, which are less advanced in the property cycle from the two biggest cities, we’re also seeing middle ring and outer ring suburbs putting their hands up.
Brisbane’s run, which started with the inner and middle-ring suburbs north of the CBD, as well as the inner-city apartment market, is starting to spread. The Moreton Bay municipality, which encompasses the northern growth corridor heading up towards the Sunshine Coast, has emerged strongly as a growth market.
So too has Logan City, which provides a suburban bridge between Brisbane City and the Gold Coast in the south. Ipswich, in the far south-west, is lagging a little, but starting to show signs of life.
Adelaide is being largely overlooked in discussions about property booms, but the South Australian capital is on a pronounced upward trajectory, with rising sales volumes evident since the start of the year.
Based on sales volumes in the June quarter, which point to price reactions later in the year, the growth markets in Adelaide are all bottom end and middle market. It’s the more affordable areas leading the city’s charge.
The Onkaparinga local government area in the far south, which has been one of the few population growth stars in South Australia, is once again a standout. This includes affordable seaside suburbs like Aldinga Beach and Seaford.
In fact, we have rated Aldinga Beach in the Price Predictor Index as one of the top five growth markets in the nation, with sales levels doubling in the past 15 months.
Another of the national top five is the much-maligned south-west Sydney suburb of Macquarie Fields, which is known to many for all the wrong reasons (including the 2005 riots). But sales rates have almost doubled in past year or so and that generated a 7% rise in its median house price in the June quarter.
Macquarie Fields is one of many suburbs in the Camden and Campbelltown LGAs where sales activity has risen, as the market momentum has switched from the silvertails to the fibro dwellers.
You can contact Terry via  <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Which middle and outer ring suburbs will benefit from the market's ripple effect?

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Some years ago I published a report called "Iconomics" – the economics of iconic real estate locations or situations. It used research to show that many of Australia’s most iconic investments were duds.
Apartments at Noosa Heads were at the top of my list of iconic failures – and today, despite some value growth in the past 12 months, the typical Noosa unit is still worth considerably less than it was 10 years ago.
On average, Noosa apartments have fallen in value at a rate of 3% per year for the past decade. It’s the ultimate real estate lemon among our iconic locations.
Surfers Paradise apartments have been little better. Despite all the clamour and propaganda about the recovery of the Gold Coast market, there has been no growth in the past 12 months in the median unit price in Surfers Paradise. Prices remain well below the levels of five years ago.
The New South Wales counterpart of these iconic flops is <a href="/news">Byron Bay</a>, a favoured burial ground for the money of people with way too much income and not nearly enough nous.
I was prompted to return to this report by another iconic loser, The Australian newspaper, which recently declared “a boom in Byron”.
What prompted this rather big statement about a market that has delivered almost zero growth for 10 years? It was a press release from the developer of a small project described as “a luxury beachfront development”.
The development had sold five apartments off the plan and that, apparently, constituted a boom. Clearly, Byron is growing off a very small base.
The research shows that Byron Bay prices have spent more time going backwards than forwards in the past decade. House prices have collapsed several times in the past 10 years, including double-digit declines in 2006, 2009-2010 and 2012-2013.
Over the past three years, the Byron median house price has dropped by an average 3.4% per year. The long-term growth rate, the average annual growth over 10 years, is marginally better than Surfers Paradise – about 2% per year.
Similar to houses, the median price for units remains lower than three years ago and the average growth rate over five years is basically zero.
Australian Property Monitors figures indicate the typical Byron Bay apartment placed on the market takes almost a year to find a buyer, while houses typically take seven to eight months to sell.
The Australian quoted local agents as claiming that sales turnover in Byron Bay is up 150% on a year ago. But a quick check of the latest data shows no change at all in overall sales volumes compared to a year ago – and for houses there has actually been a small decline in sales volumes.
The problem for Byron is that there is no economic substance to the iconic status. Investing in Byron is like buying in a mining town – it’s a one-industry town.
And, like mining, tourism is volatile and vulnerable. There can be sharp price peaks but they are always – always – followed by a trough of equal or greater magnitude.
I would urge investors to not be deluded by headlines proclaiming a property boom in Byron.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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There's no boom in Byron Bay

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So many people have bad experiences with property investment. It happens, I believe, because Australians are fed so much misinformation.
Here’s the deadly formula that leads people to buy in the wrong place at the wrong time:
<ul>
<li>Writers on real estate who know little about real estate.</li>
<li>Media outlets which do little more than re-cycle press releases.</li>
<li>Researchers who don’t clean up the statistical absurdities spat out of their computers.</li>
</ul>
Mix those ingredients together and it’s a recipe likely to poison, rather than nourish, the finances of anyone who reads the resulting article and acts on the “advice”.
Here’s a stunning example published this week by a real estate magazine. The magazine took some figures from a research organisation that tends to be careless about its data in its haste to generate profile and it came up with this headline: ‘10 scorching hot suburbs for cash flow hunters’.
Top of its list was a town in Tasmania called Queenstown. If there’s a more depressing town in Australia or a more depressed property market, please tell me about it. The town resembles the film set for a western movie, with tumbleweeds in the main street.
The median house price ($70,000) says a lot. It’s 12% lower that it was a year ago. It’s lower than it was three years ago. Hell, it’s even lower than it was five years ago, having dropped an average of 3% per year since 2009. The typical house on the market takes nine months to sell.
Remember, a national magazine has placed this town at the top of its list of “cash flow hotspots”, even though the vacancy rate is 15% so the chances of achieving any cash flow at all are near zero.
But wait, there’s more.
The top 10 list of scorching hot suburbs recommended to investors also includes Kambalda in Western Australia. This is a godforsaken mining town in a “semi-arid environment” 600 kilometres east of Perth, split into two town sites 4 kilometres apart. The median price is $150,000, after a 19% decline in the past 12 months. Prices have fallen at an average rate of 6.5% per year over the past five years. If you have a house to sell there, expect to wait eight months.
And if you’re expecting scorching hot cash flow, the vacancy rate of 20% might present a problem.
Keep in mind that the magazine said all of its top 10 scorching hot suburbs were places “where rental yields are strong despite the solid growth in property prices”.
Another of the suburbs listed among the top 10 is described as “Maluwa Bay” in New South Wales. I’ve searched but cannot find a place with that name.
There is a Malua Bay, a small town on the South Coast of NSW where the average house takes almost a year to sell and where the long-term capital growth rate is zero. Sorry, that’s not fair – it’s 0.1%, which is the average annual growth in prices over the past 10 years.
That’s so scorching hot I can feel the heat all the way up here in Queensland.
The magazine lists the median weekly rent in this place as $925 per week, but that is a statistical error commonly made by the research source used by the magazine – whereby they list the holiday rental rate, rather than the rental rate for permanent tenants, and come up with a median yield which assumes properties are occupied by tourists 52 weeks of the year, which of course they are not.
The median weekly rent for Malua Bay is actually $350 per week and anyway buying there would be seriously into negatively geared territory. So, no cash flow there, either.
I could go on, but you get the picture. This is the worst kind of misinformation, presented by a national magazine as credible advice to property investors.
God help anyone who bases an investment decision on this disgraceful piece of non-journalism.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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The deadly formula of bad investment advice

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It makes absolute sense that a parliamentary committee would propose hitting foreign investors with extra fees.
If politicians are silly enough to bring on a lengthy, costly, pointless inquiry into a mythical problem (housing affordability), it follows that they would come up with “solutions” that are equally ineffectual.
The idea which reportedly is being considered by the parliamentary committee investigating housing affordability is to charge foreign buyers of Australian property extra stamp duty or other additional fees.
The “logic” goes like this: there is an affordability crisis; foreign investors are causing it and therefore if we hit foreign buyers with lots of extra costs they’ll all go away and there won’t be a problem any more.
Housing will be affordable once again and young Australians will all live happily every after.
Here’s the problem with the solution: we don’t have an affordability crisis, foreign investors are not pricing young Australians out of the market and charging them additional stamp duty will not have the slightest impact on the cost of dwellings for first home buyers.
The Reserve Bank and many commentators from the property research sector have said they believe the impact of foreign buyers is being overstated. I think they’re right.
None of that should prevent the committee from proceeding with the idea of punishing foreign investors. This whole exercise, remember, is being run according to the 'Boys Own Manual of Bureaucratic Smokescreens' written by Sir Humphrey Appleby.
Foreigners account for a small percentage of residential property sales. Their numbers are dwarfed by local investors and in particular by the most powerful force in Australian real estate, home buyers other than first home buyers.
Foreigners are not out-bidding Australians at Sydney and Melbourne auctions because foreigners are restricted in what they are allowed to buy (although there are claims they are sidestepping the rules in the some cases). The “debate” has got to the point where anyone Asian-looking who buys at auction is deemed to be a foreign investor.
Most foreign buyers are purchasing off the plan apartments in locations such as inner city Melbourne and the Gold Coast. These places are not first homebuyer territory so they are not competing with young Aussie wannabes.
My interpretation is that the impact of foreign investors on Australian house prices is close to zero.
Here’s the great irony in all this: if you really wanted to bring down the price of city real estate, you should be providing incentives for foreigners to buy off the plan apartments, not disincentives.
The only way to reduce property values is to create a massive oversupply. Simply increasing supply a little won’t do it. You need a serious glut, with vacancies at 10% or 15%.
The only markets around Australia where values have dropped a lot (such as mining towns and resources regional centres) are locations with major vacancies caused by oversupply.
Several of the inner city markets in our biggest cities already have high vacancies but developers are bringing on more and more new towers. Why? Because they think they can flog them to foreign investors. At least half of the apartments being built around Australia are being developed by Asian companies.
These apartment towers are not being built for Aussie first home buyers or Aussie buyers of any genre. They’re being built for gullible Chinese investors. Some of our cities, headed by Melbourne, will end up with scary oversupplies, big enough to crash rentals and prices – and not just in the inner city areas.
If politicians scare off foreign investors by hitting them with onerous charges, many highrise developments will be scrapped. No oversupply, no collapsing property values, no cheap dwellings for first home buyers – and, incidentally, no construction boom and none of the jobs it would generate.
On that basis, I think deterring foreign investors is a good idea – not because it will help housing affordability but because it will prevent a disastrous oversupply of apartments in Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, the Gold Coast and, eventually, Sydney.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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Hitting foreign buyers with extra fees is an ineffectual solution to a mythical problem

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An announcement this week gave hope to all those investors who own properties in mining centres.
Indian mining company Adani started advertising the thousands of jobs that will come with its $16 billion Carmichael coal mine in Central Queensland.
It’s a further indication that Adani is keen to move ahead quickly with its project, which will include the mine, plus rail links and export port facilities.
Every day I receive emails from people who own investment properties in places like <a href="/news">Moranbah</a>, <a href="/news">Emerald</a>, <a href="/news">Blackwater</a>, <a href="/news">Mudgee</a> and the towns of the Hunter Valley.
These places have lots in common. They’re all towns where property markets boomed when coal mining was thriving, with rents and property values rising strongly. Then two things happened: the coal sector turned south just as developers were heading north. Demand fell just as supply was rising.
Big vacancies caused rents to fall and property values followed. If you bought in any of these places two years ago, you will be feeling lots of financial pain.
Moranbah’s median price has dropped 40% in the past 12 months and rents are about one-third of their peak levels.
The common dilemma expressed in so many of those emails is this: should I cut my losses and sell, or should I hold on and hope it improves? One correspondent this week suggested things might be turning around in Moranbah but asked: “Is it just wishful thinking?”
The Adani announcement that expressions of interest are open for jobs on its Carmichael mine suggests that hope is not unreasonable.
Adani, which has state and federal approvals for its Galilee Basin mine, is planning to employ up to 5,000 people during the construction phase and 4,000 more during the mine's operation.
A key beneficiary will be Emerald, a regional centre which sits amid the Galilee Basin to the west and the Bowen Basin to the east. Lots of coal, lots of big plans, but not much action at present.
I’ve often said to people: it will only require one of the half dozen proposed mega projects in the Galilee Basin to go ahead, for Emerald’s market to come storming back. I’ve always thought the Carmichael mine was the most likely to go first, because Adani wants the coal to provide for its own needs (its Indian power stations) rather than to supply the depressed global market.
The problem for investors sitting on empty rental properties is that these huge projects are slow-moving events. You need lots of patience and nerves of steel.
But this is life in mining towns. It’s not a new phenomenon. This is not the first time Moranbah has fallen into a trough (althought this one is deeper than any of the previous). It’s not the first time a boom in Gladstone has been followed by a bust.
Gladstone’s market experienced a major peak in 2008, followed by a couple of years of declining values, before rising to another peak in 2012, followed the another period of decline.
Mudgee in New South Wales had a peak in 2007, falling prices in 2008 and 2009, another peak in 2010, decline in 2001, another peak in 2013 and now another decline. The price graph for Mudgee looks like a mountain range.
Ditto Muswellbrook: since 2006 it’s been minor peak, minor trough, minor peak, mknor trough, major peak (2012), major trough (now).
When prices rise strongly in markets like this, the market always “give some back” before moving into the next up-cycle. Usually the market gives back less than it gained earlier, so the overall trend is upwards.
If you don’t have the temperament to deal with this kind of volatility, it’s best to stay out of resources-related markets.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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The announcement that gave hope to property investors in mining towns

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Terry Ryder's top 10 Queensland hotspots

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I’m seeing a rising tide of media talk that the Gladstone market has bottomed and now might be a wonderful time to buy there in readiness for the next up cycle.
This is very bad advice from people who will earn money if investors act on it and buy Gladstone real estate.
The worst is yet to come for Gladstone. The bottom won’t be reached until the three big gas projects finish construction and around 8,000 workers leave town. Only then will we see the how deep the Gladstone downturn can go.
The current situation is a vacancy rate of 6%, according to SQM Research. This is a lot better than the 10% vacancies at the start of the year and this, together with some mildly encouraging price statistics in a June Quarter report from the Real Estate Institute of Queensland, is seen by some as a sign that the market has turned the corner.
“Market stabilises in Gladstone,” said one newspaper headline, with market professionals quoted in the article claiming that Gladstone was “on track to bounce back amid growing confidence”.
Somewhat more realistic is the assessment from the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, which has forecast a “jobs crisis” in Gladstone. It says there is already a “massive contraction in jobs in Gladstone industry” and it will get worse because of the “soon-to-happen mass exodus of 8,000 workers on the Curtis Island projects”.
The Curtis Island projects are the three processing plants which will convert coal seam gas to Liquefied natural gas. They represent investment totalling about $60 billion and are all well advanced in their construction phases.
You’d think the Gladstone property market would be pumping with all that economic stimulus, wouldn’t you? I had an email recently from someone who had bought there a couple of years ago and was “not happy” because the porperty had lost $50,000 off its market value. “What happened to Gladstone?” was the plaintive cry.
I’ll tell you what happened to Gladstone. Idiot developers happened to Gladstone. The visited a construction blitzkrieg on the central Queensland city, without too much regard to what their competition was doing.
They build far too much new dwelling stock, even for the current construction phase of the major projects, without considering what would happen to market demand when the construction ended and all those thousands of building workers left town in search of the next boom.
So those who own Gladstone investment properties, and are feeling uncomfortable right now, have more pain to come.
But you don’t buy real estate in resources towns unless you have the temperament and financial resources to ride the peaks and troughs. Gladstone has had previous booms, and those booms were followed by busts. Such is life in mining towns and regional centres reliant on the resources sector. If you’re not willing to tolerate that volatility, you shouldn’t buy in these places.
Even with the decline in values in resources locations in the past 12-18 months, the fact remains that the highest capital growth rates in Australia – by far – are in mining towns and resources regional centres. The capital growth rates (average annual rise in median house prices over the past 10 years) in places like <a href="/news">Port Hedland</a> and <a href="/news">Newman </a>in Western Australia have dropped markedly in the past couple of years - but they remain the highest capital growth rates in the nation.
If you buy in these places (and I personally would not) you have to be patience, resilient and able to accept the volatility of markets in high-risk locations.
Gladstone has a huge future. I see it as Australia’s leading industrial city. Those who own property there will get growth in coming years. But before we get to that point, there will be more pain.
So, no, now is not the time to buy there. The market will fall further. Nor is it a good time to buy in places like Port Hedland or <a href="/news">Karratha</a>, because those markets are declining also and have not yet touched bottom.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
Picture courtesy of Wikimedia Commons. 
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The worst is yet to come for Gladstone

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There’s a strong link between tourism and real estate. People idling in idyllic environments like to tyre-kick real estate and often, against their better judgment, end up doing something silly - like buying an off the plan apartment as their dream holiday home.
It's so easy to be seduced into un-scheduled spending amid holiday euphoria. It's not so much “buy in haste and repent at leisure”, as buy while at leisure and repent in haste when you get back home and reality sets in.
Two of real estate's biggest lemons, Surfers Paradise units and Noosa Heads units, have been popular targets by interstate or overseas tourists who probably wish they’d stayed home.
So consider this scenario. The Reserve Bank is concerned about the economy, unsure of what will happen next, particularly after the recent uptick in unemployment. As it sees it, the economy is in transition and needs sectors other than resources to do some heavy lifting.
The RBA would also like to see a lower Australian dollar. Its recent strength has hurt export-oriented industries and undermined economic growth. It’s trying to talk it down, but with minimal effect.
All of which suggests the next movement in interest rates will be down. According to reports, the markets think so. Reductions in interest rates are likely to bring the dollar lower - and a core beneficiary of that will be inbound tourism.
This possibility comes at a time when international tourism is already in a recovery phase. We also have rising foreign investment in property, especially from Asia. The two things are moving forward hand in hand.
As Chinese tourism to Australia grows, Chinese interest in our real estate will grow, regardless of the delirious worldview of Clive Palmer – still the 2014 frontrunner for my coveted Goose of the Year award.
This inspires the question: which markets are most likely to rise as this phenomenon gathers speed?
In the past I've been reluctant to advocate investment in markets based on tourism economies. Tourism is a volatile sector, prone to devastation by adverse weather events, economic uncertainty and international incidents.
Some of the worst performing markets in the past five years have been tourism-based locations in Queensland. Noosa's market performance has been pitiful. The Whitsundays region has been little better.
When tourism downturn has been mixed with other powerful elements, such as an over-supply of apartments, the outcome has been sharply falling values. Those who own property on the Gold Coast and in Cairns will know the pain this can cause.
So we're looking for some safeguards - places likely to benefit from an uptick in international tourists, which also have an additional element, an X factor. In residential real estate, the most powerful X factor is infrastructure spending.
This is why some of those Queensland locations which have performed so badly in the past five years are now looking good bets. Prices are now attractive, the oversupply has been soaked up, tourism is improving – and, above all, there is significant spending on infrastructure, coupled with local efforts to broaden the economic base.
The two standout locations in this regard are Cairns and the Sunshine Coast. I write about Cairns a lot, because this is one Australian real estate’s great future prospects – attractively priced, great rental yields and strong growth drivers.
The Sunshine Coast doesn’t offer the same high rental returns, but is otherwise a great place for investors to consider.
You can contact Terry via  <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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Which markets will benefit the most from international tourism?

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It’s extraordinary to think there are still advisors out there telling consumers that strong capital growth and high rental yields are mutually exclusive concepts. Even more extraordinary, people pay fees for this “advice”.
A recent article in The Australian allowed a property ‘advisor’ to pontificate at length about investors buying the “wrong” assets because they offered high rental yields.
The subtext was that high- yielding properties were inferior because if they had a high rental returns they couldn’t possibly provide good capital growth and that quality assets, by definition, provided low income returns. And that quality meant expensive.
This ‘advisor’ said that sensible investors would buy expensive properties that are heavily into negative cashflow territory, requiring the investor to put in $400 to $500 a month to cover the shortfall between income and cost.
“A good property invariably has a low rental yield,” said the ‘advisor’.
This definitely gets my vote for worst advice of the year so far. Where do they get their information? Do they do any research at all, or do they simply indulge their propensity for real estate snobbery? God help anyone silly enough to listen to them.
Exiting pixieland and entering the real world, those who know what to buy and where to buy it can readily achieve strong capital growth on property that pays its own way.
Real estate investors can have their cake and eat it too. This is why the nagging debate about the rights and wrongs of negative gearing always leaves me shaking my head. Negative gearing shouldn’t be an issue because switched-on investors don’t buy loss-making assets.
They buy properties that are cashflow positive, or at least cashflow neutral, in locations with the growth drivers to provide good capital growth. Australia abounds with such opportunities.
It’s achievable in capital cities and it’s achievable in substantial regional centres with well-rounded economies and low-risk property markets.
Every year the Hotspotting team conducts suburb by suburb research for all locations across Australia to discover which locations provide the best long-term growth. We’ve been doing this for the past five years. We construct tables for the top 20 and the bottom 20 in each city.
On most occasions – not  all, but most – the results show that the cheaper areas of our capital cities provide the best long-term growth rates. That’s a very general statement and behind it there are all kinds of different situations. Real estate is full of aberrations.
But it’s rare for the so-called prime suburbs to deliver the best capital growth rates. In most instances, you are more likely to find the most expensive suburbs on the bottom 20 list than the top 20 list.
I’ve often read commentators claiming that the best – indeed, the only – place to invest in Australia is prime Sydney. Our research shows that the opposite is true. Sydney is the under-achiever of big city Australia. Despite the high price growth of the past 12-18 months, Sydney still has the worst capital growth rates in capital city Australia, except for struggling Canberra.
Sydney’s best suburbs for capital growth would make the bottom 20 lists in many other cities.
By far the best growth rates (the average annual rise over the past 10 years) have been achieved by Darwin and Perth. Darwin also has the highest rents among the capital cities – which means Darwin has delivered the best capital growth and the best rental returns among the capital cities. This contradicts the notion that you have to accept a low rental return to achieve good capital growth.
The cheaper areas of our capital cities also able to provide opportunities to buy properties with initial rental yields above 6%. The best of our regional cities can deliver 7% plus rental returns as well as strong capital growth prospects.
Cairns is a great example of this. You can find yields in the 7% to 8% range in a city that’s on a serious growth path.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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High yields or capital growth? Investors can have their cake and eat it too

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A story that caught my eye this week proclaimed a building boom in the City of Blacktown in Sydney’s west.
My first reaction was gratification, because for years I’ve promoted Blacktown as one of Sydney’s underrated growth markets – and in recent times it has delivered on its promise, with state-leading population growth and capital growth right up with the best in Sydney. A lift in development approvals makes sense.
My second reaction was concern, because the level of building approvals in the past two financial years raises the prospect of the greatest risk hovering above property markets around Australia – oversupply.
While building and developer groups continue to peddle their political catchcry of shortage, unsupported by any evidence, the reality is that the opposite problem is the greatest threat to residential markets.
There is no bubble in Australian real estate and the chances of prices collapsing for this reason are zero.
But there is a risk of serious decline in major markets because of oversupply.
We have some stark recent examples of what can happen to markets when developers build too many dwellings.
One is provided by Gladstone, which has the most compelling demand factors ever visited on a regional city in Australia. Sixty billion dollars in major construction projects and tens of thousands of new jobs and yet the market has crashed. Oversupply can override the most powerful of growth drivers.
Another example is the Gold Coast. This wacky theme park for overseas tourists and property speculators has just emerged from five years of declining values for a single reason: oversupply created by developers who let their egos do the decision-making. In most locations values are still below those of five years ago (although that is set to change as the Gold Coast moves into a growth phase).
The next big surplus scenario is now being enacted in downtown Melbourne, with a looming market disaster being facilitated by Australia’s worst ever planning minister, Matthew Guy. I can envisage a time when property owners in inner-city Melbourne mount a class action to sue Guy for destroying their property values by not only approving but encouraging the greatest apartment glut since federation.
But Melbourne is likely to have plenty of company. Every CBD and near-city market in capital city Australia has an existing oversupply or is heading towards one. The Gold Coast has finally absorbed a five-year surplus of highrise units but developers are already working feverishly on the next one, in the apparent belief that the Commonwealth Games and Chinese investors will cover their butts.
This spotlights an issue many investors overlook when considering a location. They’ll examine many factors but fail to check out the vacancy rate. Even those that do are at risk, because few think about future supply.
Investors must check current vacancies but also examine building approval figures. A major uplift in residential approvals in the most recent financial year can provide a clue to future over-supply.
A case in point is Rockhampton in Queensland. I’m a fan of this place because it has economic diversity, less reliance on resources than neighbouring Mackay and Gladstone, lots of affordable dwellings and strong rental yields. There’s plenty of infrastructure and development happening.
Rockhampton has a strong future. But my one nagging concern has been the level of recent building approvals. Recently those high levels of new dwellings have started to push up residential vacancies.
Back to the City of Blacktown, where close to $1 billion in new developments was approved by the council in 2013-14. In each of the 2011 and 2012 financial years, dwelling approvals numbered around 1,400. In both the 2013 and 2104 financial years, approvals have been around 2,100 – with a particularly big increase in approvals for apartments.
In the past couple of years, development approvals for the Blacktown LGA have been the highest in Sydney metropolitan area, except for Sydney City. Blacktown has been well ahead of Parramatta and Penrith.
This reflects Blacktown’s status as the population growth leader in NSW, as well as a centre for good infrastructure, transport links, new development and jobs growth. It will probably attract plenty of benefits from the Badgerys Creek airport development.
But investors would be wise to keep on eye on dwelling supply. Currently the vacancy rate for the Blacktown postcode is just 1.2%, according to SQM Research. But that could change – and quickly.
You can contact Terry via  <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
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Terry Ryder

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