Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

&nbsp;

Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.

The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.

The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.

The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]

Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.

Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.

Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]

Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.

“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.

“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”

“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.” 
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]

The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.

Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.

The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.

The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]

Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.

“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.

“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”

A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.

That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.

The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]

According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.

Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.

The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.

The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.

That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.

The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]

The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.

“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.

“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”

The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]

Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.

The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.

Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]

Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.

Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.

“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.

He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.

“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.

“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.

Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.

Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.

Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.

The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]

Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more international and domestic flights.

Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.

Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.

The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.

The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" />

According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”

The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.

The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.

Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.

“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.

The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.

The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" />

The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.

“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.

According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.

“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.

“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”

The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.

Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.

&nbsp;

The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" />

St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.

Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.

The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.

More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.

First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

Terry Ryder

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Politicians have a great appetite for exercises that chew up lots of time and money for little purpose other than to attract spotlight and give the impression that they’re doing something.
The current federal inquiry into housing affordability is a classic of the genre. Let’s galvanise the nation with a talkfest about a non-existent problem. We can stretch it out over many months, with regular media events, and really make it look like we’re on the ball and genuinely care.
Sir Humphrey Appleby would be proud.
But the Yes Minister icon would be fit to burst at the latest effort of the Queensland government.
It’s only taken them two and half years in government, but they’ve finally come up with it: a vision for the state.
Not just any vision. This is a blueprint for what Queensland will look like 30 years from now.
As we’ve seen regularly in state and federal politics, most governments can’t estimate the state of their own budget one year ahead, let alone the state of play in 30 years’ time.
But this is not about reality. This is about creating an illusion. The delusion that Campbell Newman and his crew are actually in charge of the state’s destiny.
The current Queensland government is busily turning a landslide into a mudslide. They hold almost all the seats in the Parliament but still manage to look like they’re under siege a lot of the time, fighting for their lives.
Labor, almost wiped out in the 2012 state election, has just won a by-election with a swing of 18.6%, after winning a February by-election with a swing of 17.2%.
Queensland unemployment has risen sharply and, at 6.8%, is well above the national average and the highest in 11 years. Economic activity, as measured by state final demand, has fallen recently. Queensland got a mediocre rating in the latest State of the States report from CommSec, well behind the growth leaders Western Australia, the Northern Territory and New South Wales.
So it’s a good time to create a diversion, more for their own benefit than the publics’. As Sir Humphrey observed, politicians don’t believe they exist unless they read about themselves in the paper.
But what a pointless exercise. Why create a 30-year plan when you won’t be around to implement it? The current mob is unlikely to be in government even four years from now, given the extraordinary volatility in the electorate.
Newman won’t be Premier in 2024, much less in 2044 which is the ultimate destination of this plan - during which time there will be a dozen new governments, each with its own deep vision and long-term plan.
So why bother with this window dressing? Why publish a plan that you have no chance of implementing?
And why get excited about it as journalists, consumers, businesses and developers?
But some have. Media lapped it up and one newspaper came up with this: “A wave of housing demand in Queensland areas such as Gladstone is expected to flow from The Queensland Plan …”
One development company latched on to this to promote the “masterplanned community” it’s developing in Gladstone. It said Gladstone had emerged as a growth area recently.
In reality, the only real estate factors growing in Gladstone at the moment are the vacancy rate (around 7%) and the consternation of investors who own property there. Prices have 10% in the past 12 months and it will get worse when the construction phase of the three mega gas projects winds down.
There are plenty of Queensland places worthy of consideration by investors, including Toowoomba, Cairns and the Sunshine Coast – each of them growing strongly for local reasons. Toowoomba, as I discussed earlier in the week, is arguably the nation’s strongest property market. Cairns is pumping in a way not seen since the 1980s and the Sunshine Coast is rising on the back of a big infrastructure spend.
None of this has anything to do with the 30-year “vision” that will be filed along with all the other political plans, never to be heard of or thought about again.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
Photo courtesy of BBC Television.
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Queensland's "30-year vision" a plot worthy of Yes Minister

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I feel some sympathy for the people conducting the Senate inquiry into affordable housing.
Based on the media reports I’ve seen, they’re being served up a motley mixture of propaganda, misinformation and outright lies by organisations pushing their private agendas.
How will they sort the wheat from the chaff, given that most of what they’re being fed is chaff?
The representative bodies of elements of the real estate industry are simply presenting their wish lists on behalf of their members. Each one of them would have us believe that the solution to the problem is to give their members everything they’ve ever wanted.
Apparently first home buyers around the nation will rejoice if real estate agents can be helped to earn more commissions or developers can make more money faster.
Firstly, what is the problem? Or, more pertinently, is there a problem?
The premise of the inquiry is that young adults can’t afford to buy a dwelling. I’m quite certain that’s a false premise. It contradicts all the available evidence.
First home buyers appear to be less active than before. And it has been assumed – incorrectly, I’m quite sure – that this is solely because they can’t afford to buy. No one has considered that there might be another explanation, or several other explanations.
Last Friday I was guest speaker at a business luncheon. I addressed a number of topics under the heading – “Residential Property – the market no one really understands” – and there followed a long discussion of the issues.
The hottest topic was the motivation of young Australians with regards to home ownership. Many of those present – who have adult children and/or work with young adults – observed that most twenty-something Australians have little or no interest in buying real estate.
Affordability is not the issue. They simply have other priorities. I was interested to hear those comments, but not surprised because this has been revealed in several surveys in the past 12 months. Young adults, generally speaking, don’t want to repeat the life path of their parents, which included being married with kids and a mortgage before 30.
They want lifestyle and travel. They’re more inclined to invest in themselves than in real estate. One view expressed at the luncheon was that many would rather start a business than buy property.
There’s another factor. I think there’s more first home buyer activity that the figures show, because most state and territories have changed their grants system. Grants are available now for new homes only. But the research shows that most first timers buy established properties, because they’re considerably cheaper and often better located.
There are first home buyers out there slipping under the radar because they’re not claiming grants.
All of that is an inconvenient truth to builders, developers and real estate agents. They want politicians to believe there’s a crisis and they have to act to fix the perceived problem.
And the solution they’re presenting to the Senate inquiry is: give us what we want and the problem with go away.
The <a href="/expert-insights/investing/five-supply-reforms-that-will-assist-affordability-master-builders-australia">solution presented by Master Builders Australia</a> is to release more land, make approvals easier and faster, and reduce or eliminate infrastructure charges to developers – with penalties for governments that don’t toe the MBA line.
That’s not a solution. That’s the lifetime wish list of builders and developers across the nation.
The attitude of the Real Estate Institute of Australia is particularly interesting, because their statements contradict their own research. The REIA co-publishes a quarterly affordability index that shows that affordability is the best it’s been in over a decade. But it’s telling the Senate inquiry that there’s a big affordability problem and the government must act to fix it.
Either the REIA index is nonsense or their submission to the inquiry is. I’d love to know which they think it is.
The REIA claims there’s a national housing shortfall of 100,000 dwellings. Developer bodies make similar claims. But they don’t justify the claim. They demand that we accept it as fact, without presenting any evidence. I think it is real estate’s greatest myth (and have presented my evidence many times in this column).
So, the <a href="/expert-insights/buying/government-needs-to-stem-exodus-of-first-home-buyers-reia">REIA’s solution to the problem</a> their own index says doesn’t exist is to make lots of changes to ensure more property deals happen: assistance to first home buyers, access to superannuation to make buying property easier, retention of negative gearing for investors, abolition of stamp duties and release of more land.
It’s pure coincidence that all these measures are likely to line the pockets of REIA members around Australia.
At some point in time, developers, agents and other servants of the property industry will have to accept that this generation of young adults will never adopt the priorities of their parents. They have better things to do with their lives.
You can contact Terry via  <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
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Real estate industry bodies more concerned with lining their own pockets than easing affordability

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Every week there’s more evidence disproving the notion of a national property boom and the even more fanciful theory of a bubble fit to burst.
You really don’t need to go much beyond the price figures, which show wide variations in the results from different capital cities, with growth ranging from negative to low to moderate to strong to boom.
But given the steady flow of bloopers from economists whose five-second media grabs last longer than the research they do - and the plaintive cries from the industry about the “exodus of first-home buyers” because of the affordability crisis caused by the housing shortage they’ve spent years fabricating – here’s some more information.
The Home Buyers Index from the Commonwealth Bank and RP Data suggests that most markets around the country favour buyers. In other words, most markets are not booming.
According to this index, when you look at things from a statewide perspective the ACT is the only jurisdiction with a sellers’ market. Four states have a “balanced market”, two others have a “buyers’ market” and one (Tasmania) has an “extreme buyers’ market”.
So there are four different situations across the eight states and territories – and only one has a market strong enough to be classified as a “sellers’ market”.
When they examine the situation in each capital city, there are three cities deemed to have sellers’ markets, three with balanced markets and two with buyers’ markets. Eight cities with three different scenarios.
I could spend all sorts of time critiquing the methodology and wondering how on earth they managed to perceive Canberra as a strong market when all other indications suggest it’s struggling – and noting that it’s based on March quarter data and we’re now in the September quarter, so it’s dated even before they publish it.
But the bottom line is that the report has found a whole range of different scenarios happening nationwide and only a small number of locations have a market worthy to be called boom. In fact, the national top 10 list of the strongest markets includes only four locations rated as sellers’ markets. The other six on the top 10 list are merely balanced markets.
A graph in the HBI report shows that markets have overwhelmingly favoured buyers over the past four years. Only four out of the past 50 months have been classified as sellers’ markets. This would tend to harm the case of those arguing for a price bubble.
Also recently published was Australian Property Monitors’ Rental Report for the June quarter, which found that only one capital city recorded growth in house rentals. On an annual basis, three cities recorded significant decreases in rentals, one city had no change, three had growth between 1.5% and 2.6%, and the best in the land was a 5.6% annual rise in Melbourne.
It’s a similar situation with apartment rents.
I can’t see any evidence there of a booming market, nor anything to support the strident claims of a dwelling shortage from developers who seek to use the fictional shortfall as ammunition to coerce politicians into making their lives easier, faster and cheaper.
Turning to those persistent claims about our dwellings being over-priced, Cameron Kusher <a href="/expert-insights/buying/inflation-adjusted-home-values-are-still-lower-than-their-previous-peak">wrote recently on Property Observer</a> that only Sydney among the capital cities has price levels (adjusted for inflation) higher than the previous peak.
In real terms, Sydney’s market is only 4.3% above the previous peak, which was 10 years ago. All other cities remain in deficit – most of them by more than 10%.
All cities have shown some kind of growth recently, according to these figures, but not enough to lift values to the levels of the previous peaks (the timing of which varies from city to city) and anywhere close to them
You have to work really hard to concoct a bubble out of this situation.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
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You have to work very hard to concoct a property bubble when we're nowhere near a boom

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About 18 months ago I started including Wollongong in some of the Hotspotting reports which identify markets expected to out-perform in the future.
This was at a time when the <a href="/news">Illawarra</a> was generally expected to be a non-performer. Indeed, some had predicted recession and a collapse in the property market there, because of recent economic bad news.
But <a href="/news">Wollongong</a> is a quality regional centre and I’ve been charting real estate markets long enough to know that good regional centres always fight back.
<a href="/news">Newcastle </a>did so after BHP shut down operations in the 1990s, reinventing itself and coming back stronger than before. I expected Wollongong to do likewise (just as I am confident <a href="/news">Geelong</a> will survive industry shutdowns and thrive in the future).
<a href="/expert-insights/investing/too-late-to-buy-sydney-try-wollongong-or-dubbo-tamworth-and-gunnedah-and-newcastle">Earlier this year I wrote</a> on Property Observer: “Wollongong has defied predictions that it would lapse into recession following economic reversals such as downsizing by Bluescope Steel. One hysterical headline suggested property values would fall 50%.
“But the Illawarra is the latest example of a regional community fighting back from adverse circumstances. A lot of infrastructure and property development money is pumping into Wollongong and real estate markets are rising.”
<blockquote>
Much of Wollongong’s improvement is due to its inherent qualities as a regional centre and the extent of new investment there.
</blockquote>
Now we have seen price data published which confirms that Wollongong has defied the dire forecasts made a couple of years ago.
Australian Property Monitors’ quarterly housing report credits Wollongong with a 7.5% rise in its median house price in the June quarter and an annual rise of 14%. The median has risen from $439,000 to $500,000 in 12 months.
Nearby markets also delivered solid annual increases, including <a href="/news">Shellharbour</a> (7%) and <a href="/news">Kiama</a> (12%).
I attribute part of the increases to a ripple effect from Sydney. As expected, regional centres close to the state capital have caught the Sydney wave.
But much of Wollongong’s improvement is due to its inherent qualities as a regional centre and the extent of new investment there.
The place has a lot going for it. There’s a substantial and growing population (the Illawarra region has around 275,000 residents), the proximity to Sydney, the seaside location, the strength of spending on infrastructure (including $1 billion on hospital facilities and $500 million at Wollongong University), and the significant investment in new property projects by national development entities like Lend Lease and Australand.
Australand’s Shell Cove is a $1.5 billion project. The total value of all the infrastructure and property developments on our lists for Wollongong is almost $5 billion.
Nothing drives property values like infrastructure spending, which generates economic activity, jobs growth and ultimately demand for accommodation.
The Wollongong has that factor working for it on overdrive.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
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Nothing drives property values like infrastructure spending and Wollongong is in overdrive

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The latest price data tends to support my view that we have not had, to this point, a national property boom; and that we may be about to have one.
Australian Property Monitors’ price data for the June quarter suggests only Sydney has had exceptional pride growth, both for houses and for apartments. All other capital city markets have had growth ranging from negative to low to moderate.
The APM figures are generally (though not completely) in line with those published by RP Data.
Let’s look at houses first. In terms of annual growth to the end of June, both data sources report a capital city average a little above 10%. Economists have looked at that and perceived a national boom, which provides further evidence of how desperately dumb they all are, on property matters at least.
Looking city by city provides a different perspective. Only one city has achieved the city average growth rate. Sydney’s annual growth was 16% (RP Data) or 17% (APM). The property boom starts and ends there.
Both sources agree that Melbourne has grown close to 10%, Brisbane around 7% and Perth around 5%. Depending on which source you prefer, Adelaide has grown 3% or 5%, Hobart 2% or 6%, Darwin 5% or 1%, and Canberra has grown 3% or dropped slightly.
There’s a similar pattern with apartments. The capital city average is annual growth of 8.3% (APM) or 9.1% (RP Data). But the only boom figures have been in Sydney, up 12% or 13%.
Melbourne has risen 4% or 5%, Adelaide about 1% and Darwin 7% or 8%, while Perth is up 5% if you believe APM or more if you favour RP Data.
There’s conflict with the data on the other three capital cities: Brisbane is up 5% or down 1%, Canberra is up 4% or down 2%, and Hobart is up 7% or down 8% - for reasons I don’t understand, there is always this great contradiction about the Hobart unit market in the figures from the two competing sources.
The bottom line is that there is no boom in those figures, except for Sydney. There is evidence aplenty of solid markets in most cities, but the growth rates are low to moderate (and, in a few cases, negative). Keeping in mind that there were several years of falling values pre-2013, the data makes nonsense of the bubble arguments from those suffering from limelight deficit disorder.
So no national boom – but, if you look more closely, evidence that one may be brewing. Looking at APM’s annual growth figures for the cities, if you compare the 30 June 2014 numbers with those six months earlier, you find that the growth rates have improved in most cities.
Adelaide grew only 3% in 2013 but six months later the annual growth rate has doubled.  Brisbane’s growth rate is up from 5% to 7%. The annual growth rates for Sydney and Melbourne have both grown two percentage points. Hobart has improved from 5% to 6%. Perth, Darwin and Canberra have deteriorated, but the city average has risen from 9.8% to 10.9% in six months.
According to the APM figures, all capital cities except Darwin showed improvement in their median house prices in the June quarter.
Similarly, most of the cities delivered growth in their apartment markets in the June Quarter, with an average rise of 2.5%. Only Hobart and Canberra fell.
The overall picture, therefore, is growth rates that are moderate - but rising.
Housing finance approvals are up 10.7% for owner-occupiers (with all state and territories rising strongly except the Northern Territory) and 27% for investors (with five states/territories recording annual rises above 13% and six states/territories recording monthly rises of at least 14% in May, the latest month for which we have figures).
Residential building approvals rose 17.4% in the 12 months to the end of May, with five states or territories recording annual rises above 20%.
There’s a pattern there suggests growing national momentum in property markets. The national price boom that was incorrectly perceived by myopic economists, and then inaccurately declared dead by those who rush to judgment, may be only just beginning.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
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National price boom may be about to begin

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In his latest Ryder Report, regular observer Terry Ryder takes on the so called "national property boom".
Unlike some other property commentators, Ryder doesn't believe Australia is in the grips of an emerging bubble or boom. Here are his 20 reasons why the country's boom isn't over yet.
1. "There is no national boom" For the market to bust, there would have to be a boom, and Ryder doesn't think we have one - outside of Sydney, anyway. He's previously criticised media outlets and <a href="/expert-insights/finance/the-rba-just-doesnt-get-the-housing-market">institutions like the Reserve Bank of Australia</a> for focusing too much on Sydney's market when generating national commentary. 2. "Sydney still has momentum" According to Ryder, any claims that Sydney's boom is over is "based on a single month's data", a <a href="/expert-insights/latest-media-fiasco-shows-exactly-why-monthly-movements-are-meaningless">criticism he's stated before</a>. He says: "buoyancy remains in Sydney's market". 3. "Melbourne still has momentum" Ryder says that a growing number of Melbourne suburbs are seeing rising sales activity, with even greater price rises likely to come. 4. "Brisbane just starting to rise" While the other Eastern Seaboard capitals are yet to reach their peak, Ryder says Brisbane is just getting started. "Brisbane is well behind Sydney in the current cycle and is only beginning its upward movement," says Ryder. He predicts prices will rise this year. 5. "Adelaide poised to grow" Ryder believes Adelaide "will be the surprise performer of 2014," with increasing sales activity across the city.
This list continues on the next page.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
6. "Hobart starting to show life"
Despite "being ignored in national assessments", Hobart's market activity is also beginning to pick up, believes Ryder. 7. "Perth still has momentum" Although the city's sales have "plateaued" after a strong run in 2012 and 2013, Ryder thinks they remain "elevated", with possible future price growth. 8. "Darwin showing signs of revival" Despite signs of a slowing market last year, Ryder says Darwin appeared to pick up in late 2013 and early 2014. He believes prices in the city are likely to keep rising. 9. "NSW regional cities rising" Ryder thinks New South Wales' regional centres have picked up some heat from Sydney's market, or have their own local reasons for growth. According to Ryder, "their run is just beginning". 10. "QLD regional cities rising" Cairns, Toowoomba, the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast are leading the state's regional cities into "strong growth phases", according to Ryder.
 
This list continues on the next page.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
11. "Other regional centres on the up"
Ryder says regional markets south of Perth are growing. He believes South Australian and Victorian regional centres are also picking up, as is Launceston in Tasmania. 12. "Sales volumes still rising" Ryder cites the latest update of his own Price Predictor Index which points to increasing sales volumes across the country, which he says "inevitably leads to price growth". 13. "Consumer sentiment improving" According to Westpac's July consumer sentiment report, there is a "healthy rise in confidence" regarding real estate, says Ryder. 14. "Budget news has been digested" "There was a brief period in May when decision-making halted as people digested the Federal budget we seem to have moved on," says Ryder. 15. "Building approvals are rising" Ryder notes that building approvals increased 16% in 12 months to April 2014, with South Australia, Western Australia, New South Wales and Queensland all leading.
This list continues on the next page.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 16. "Lending for homes still rising"
On an annual basis, lending for home loans is up 12%, says Ryder. He notes double-digit growth in six states and territories. 17. "Investor activity rising" Lending for investors is up by an even greater proportion, with 28% annual growth and 1.1% growth in the month to April. Investor lending has increased by 17% or more in five states (presumably annually), says Ryder. 18. "Asian investment growing" Though Ryder believes foreign buyers' impact on local markets is exaggerated, he does believe Asian investors are continuing to affect inner-city unit markets. 19. "Interest rates remain low" Ryder believes Australia's current record low interest rates are "unlikely to change in the near future". 20. "National boom is just starting" "Contrary to claims that 'the boom is over', all the evidence says that a national boom is really just beginning", claims Ryder.
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Terry Ryder's 20 reasons the country's property boom isn't over

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Adelaide continues to deliver data suggesting a rising market – and further evidence that those who called the end of the so-called national property boom forget to look beyond Sydney.
The latest figures come from an analysis of Valuer-General’s data by the Real Estate Institute of South Australia. They confirm my own figures showing strongly rising sales volumes throughout Adelaide. The REISA report also provides evidence of the first signs of price growth.
This reinforces the findings of the Price Predictor Index, which suggest a rising Adelaide market in 2014.
I wrote <a href="/news/sa/adelaide-is-the-standout-market-and-opportunity-for-investors">on Property Observer last month</a>:
“The standout market for me at the moment is Adelaide. The South Australian capital has more forward momentum than most of the capital cities. Given that this has not yet translated into major price growth, it represents an opportunity for investors.
“South Australia is the only capital city which ended 2013 with sales volumes rising significantly and carried that into the early part of 2014. Some of our cities peaked, in terms of sales activity, in early or mid 2013. Some ended 2013 strongly but made a lukewarm start to 2014.
“But SA is really just beginning its run.”
The REISA report indicates a 6.2% quarterly rise in the number of houses sold in metropolitan Adelaide. It says the median price rose 4% to $415,000.
I would expect more growth to follow, given the strong pattern of rising sales volumes.
Adelaide and South Australia seldom get the credit they deserve. They only attract national headlines when something negative happens, like the deferral of the Olympic Dam resources project or the closure of a major manufacturing enterprise.
I think few investors realise how much is happening there, particularly in the area of new infrastructure spending and development of new property markets, such as urban renewal projects in the inner-city areas.
Adelaide has major infrastructure projects happening with rail links, road networks, hospitals, education facilities and sports infrastructure.
I commented about two years ago that Adelaide had more infrastructure developments under way than did Sydney. This is no longer true, as the NSW state government has initiated some major projects more recently, but Adelaide remains a significant centre for infrastructure spending, relative to its size.
As the year progresses, I expect to see more from the South Australian capital in terms of rising property markets and significant price growth.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
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The data is in: Adelaide's on the move and I expect significant price growth

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The Reserve Bank has been giving a rolling seminar on why economists don’t get real estate.
This has taken the form of speeches by the Guv, Glenn Stevens, and press releases on RBA research and opinions.
The RBA view of residential real estate is a bible for economists, containing various commandments with which most economists comply. They include:
<ul>
<li>There is just one property market in Australia;</li>
<li>Sydney is Australia;</li>
<li>Australians are naughty because they like to invest in real estate;</li>
<li>They’re even naughtier when they borrow to do it;</li>
<li>When property prices rise we’re all very naughty and deserve a smack;</li>
<li>We’re all stupid because we think property prices always rise;</li>
<li>Buying a home is, or should be, a financial decision and emotion or culture shouldn’t intrude;</li>
<li>Financially it’s smarter to rent so how come we all don’t want to rent; and</li>
<li>We’re not building enough houses because that’s what our charts say.</li>
</ul>
Stevens has been getting out and about delivering his core message, which I suspect he lifted from the pages of Real Estate for Dummies. This is - wait for it, drum roll please -“property prices don’t always go up”!
Many media outlets have breathlessly reported that Stevens “has warned home buyers that people should not assume that prices always rise”. Just in case we haven’t got it, he drives home the message with this thunderbolt of wisdom: “Sometimes they fall!”
This is why Stevens earns the big money. He understands things the masses do not.
Seriously, is there anyone in Australia above the age of 11 who doesn’t know that property prices sometimes fall? Maybe someone who’s been meditating in a cave in the Himalayas might have missed the general decline in prices from 2010 to 2012. In my experience, most Australians have a hyper awareness of the value of their home, especially when it’s in reverse.
These days we have not only quarterly and monthly price monitors, we have attention-seekers claiming they can chart weekly price changes, even daily. Pretty soon we’ll have minute-by-minute price barometers.
And all these sporadic movements in prices, both up and down, have been reported ad nauseum by a gullible media.
According to some sources, prices have dropped three times in the past six or seven months.
Why does Stevens think none of us have noticed? He has intoned the “prices don’t always rise” sermon several times recently. Obviously he doesn’t get the emails I get, from people who bought five years ago on the Gold Coast and watched their investment steadily decline in value. Or from people who own Noosa apartments. Or from people who bought during the Gladstone boom and are now dismayed at the drop in values. Or from those who own real estate in Mackay, Moranbah, the Hunter Valley, Port Hedland, Karratha and Broome.
Or people who own a home in Canberra, where values in some areas are now going south.
Another offering of economist-centric advice from the RBA is that we might all be better off renting than investing. According to an RBA research paper, it’s only if prices rise 2.9% or more annually that it may be worth owning your home.
I wonder why they bothered with this research. Nothing better to do? It’s only when you understand that this is the work of economists that it makes any sort of sense.
This really is at the heart of why economists struggle to understand real estate. They think it’s about economics. They get a tad vexed when it doesn’t behave.
Most households don’t give a damn whether home ownership makes economic sense or not. It’s not about economics. It’s about culture. It’s about how they want to live.
According to the logic of the RBA research, unless values are rising around 3% a year on average it’s not worth owning. On this basis, nobody should own a home in Sydney, because it’s capital growth rate over 10 years has barely managed that level. How have so many people got it so wrong?
The RBA paper speculates that price growth in the future will be less than in the recent past, in which case we ‘d all be better off financially if we rented.
One question: price growth where? Everywhere in Australia? Price growth everywhere will be too low to justify home ownership?
This brings us back to one of my original points - that one of the great weaknesses of the RBA and economists generally is that they see Australia as one homogeneous market. That’s why they’ve looked at the national average price growth figure - not for Australia, mind you, but for the eight capital cities - and concluded that because the city average is 10% Australia has been having a real estate boom, oblivious to the reality - that only one city has had growth that big.
They really don’t get it.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
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The RBA just doesn't get the housing market

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Terry Ryder’s most recent Price Predictor Index, June to September 2014, looks at Sydney’s fastest rising markets for units and houses across the suburbs.
Within the <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au" target="_parent">hotspotting.com.au</a> list, Property Observer selected the 17 opportunities for investors who are looking to enter into the market for $500,000 or less. We have included the suburbs available in alphabetical order over the page, as well as noting whether houses or units were on Ryder’s radar. The price provided is the median for the unit or house market in the respective suburb.
Ryder notes that while Sydney’s metropolitan star remains the inner-city market, the west and south west are continuing their rise to prominence.
The City of Sydney won the overall list, with six suburbs on the Rising Fast list, which numbered some 68 opportunities (some being the house and unit markets in the same suburbs), and seven on a subsequent Rising Steadily list.
The report notes that sales levels in <a href="/news">Darlinghurst </a>have doubled in less than 12 months, with <a href="/news">Chippendale </a>and <a href="/news">Haymarket </a>experiencing a similar result.
<a href="/news">Pyrmont </a>was also a performer, with a 110% sales rise in nine months.
“We are concerned that inner-city Sydney will eventually have a similar issue to inner Melbourne, where far too many apartments are being built, but at this stage Sydney has no apparent over-supply issues and demand for city units continues to rise,” the report notes.
However, beyond the CBD, it’s out west that is rising fast – and providing a more affordable entry point.
“Heading west from the City, the municipalities of Parramatta, Blacktown and Penrith are rising, while in the south-west Bankstown, Liverpool, Campbelltown and Camden all have strong markets,” explains Ryder.
Blacktown LGA continues its strong position, Penrith LGA also recorded good results and Parramatta LGA is a standout on the rising steadily and the consistent list.
Camden LGA, Bankstown LGA and Campbelltown LGA also managed to achieve strong rising market results.
Turn the page to see the 17 Rising Fast suburbs with median prices at $500,000 or less.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
17 affordable Rising Fast markets
<ol>
<li>Auburn (U) $375,000 
</li>
<li>Bankstown (U) $365,000 
</li>
<li>Blacktown (H) $450,000 
</li>
<li>Camden South (H) $465,000 
</li>
<li>Cranebrook (H) $435,000 
</li>
<li>Greenacre (U) $469,000 
</li>
<li>Hinchinbrook (H) $500,000 
</li>
<li>Homebush West (U) $470,000 
</li>
<li>Ingleburn (H) $385,000 
</li>
<li>Jamisontown (H) $435,000 
</li>
<li>Jamisontown (U) $289,000 
</li>
<li>Kellyville Ridge (U) $440,000 
</li>
<li>Lakemba (H) $315,000 
</li>
<li>Liverpool (U) $300,000 
</li>
<li>Merrylands (U) $379,000 
</li>
<li>Roselands (U) $367,000 
</li>
<li>Westmead (U) $432,000</li>
</ol>
Source: hotspotting.com.au
Key:
(H) Houses
(U) Units
 
For more information on the report see <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/reports/%20" target="_blank">Terry Ryder’s latest reports available here</a>.
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jduke-EHk3XBmHkn

Sydney’s fastest rising markets under $500,000: Terry Ryder

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The term "hotspot" was around long before I established my Hotspotting website eight years ago.
But today the word is bandied about with joyous abandon by way too many people, with fairly liberal definitions of what it means. 
For the record, I define a hotspot as a location which, for identifiable reasons such as infrastructure spending, will out-perform mainstream markets on price growth in the medium to long-term - and where it is currently a good time to buy. They are not places that will show flash-in-the-pan growth, with short-term spikes in the price graph, but locations with the fundamentals to deliver good growth over time.
It's important for consumer to understand that "hotspot" is used carelessly by press release writers and some media organisations which publish their work. Often, it is used to describe areas that have had strong medium price growth in the past 12 months past. By contrast, my purpose is to identify the strong locations of the future, which is of far greater value to property investors.
A current example is the reporting of a<a href="/expert-insights/investing/list-of-the-day-top-20-building-and-population-hotspots"> research document published by the Housing Industry Association</a>. This report pinpoints areas which have, in the recent past, experienced high levels of residential building and, as a result, new population growth.
In most cases, they are outer suburbs where new housing estates are being established.
This has been widely reported as a document identifying "real estate growth hotspots", which is both misleading and dangerous for investors who believe the locations highlighted are great places to buy.
Many of the top-ranked locations in this report are demonstrably poor places to invest.
Three of the top places in this report are in Canberra. They are suburbs with new housing estates, which is why they show up under the HIA's criteria of locations with high levels of new building and population growth.
But hotspots in terms of their potential for capital growth? Definitely not.
Right now, nowhere in Canberra is a hotspot under our definition. In stark contrast to Sydney, and one or two other cities, the Canberra market is stalled, with many statistics showing prices and rentals either stagnating or going backwards.
The federal government's spending cuts - which undermine Canberra's status as a place of high incomes and low unemployment - are hurting. There is more pain to come in this market.
It's important to realise also that the building approval and population data on which this report is based, was out dated even before the report was published. It focuses on the 2012-13 financial year, which is of limited interest or value now that we are into the 2014-15 financial year.
The report has interest, in terms of identifying the locations where new dwellings are being built, but these are not, in most cases, places that will deliver out-performance in price growth.
Accordingly, they are not the "hot real estate markets" described in many media outlets.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on<a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
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Terry Ryder

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