Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tsioMLcnjas?si=zq-ys3JuWpfa5hFv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Terry Ryder

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The great majority of consumers I meet are poorly informed about real estate.
They make bad choices on information sources – they read newspapers – and the misinformation they absorb leads them to bad choices on real estate.
Mainstream media is extraordinarily careless with its treatment of real estate information. Most articles are re-cycled press releases, which are essentially propaganda from vested interests, which means the information is suspect and ought to be rejected or at least challenged.
A current example is the credibility media is giving to the annual Demographia report, which is a work of fiction by a developer lobby group which opposes regulation of developer activity and has concocted “research” that appears to support its stance.
<a href="/expert-insights/investing/only-hong-kong-and-vancouver-dearer-than-sydneys-severely-unaffordable-housing-11th-demographia-2015-survey">Sydney is declared the third most unaffordable city in the world</a> in a report that compares Australia to only a handful of other nations and uses arbitrary, self-serving methodology to declare pretty much everywhere in Australia (and New Zealand) “severely unaffordable”, notwithstanding two years of very active markets in both countries.
I could write a book on the obvious flaws and suspect motives in this report but media regurgitates this nonsense without a single question to its authors.
But a more constant cause of real estate misinformation is the failure of economists, other analysts and journalists to appreciate this simple truth: a single month’s data is meaningless. There are always aberrations in monthly statistics. You need to ignore the hiccups and observe the long-term trends.
But few commentators and writers do that. The pursuit of a headline causes people who should know better to place undue emphasis on one month’s figures and create interpretations that are unwarranted - and often rendered obsolete by the next month’s figures.
We recently saw a sharp rise in the jobless rate, which created a great deal of media hot air, only to be negated by the latest monthly figure which has reversed the earlier rise.
In December, Westpac’s consumer sentiment index on real estate matters indicated a sharp decline in confidence, which was widely interpreted as evidence of the end of the mythical property boom. But the January index published this week reverses the earlier decline, making all that “analysis” a month ago a great waste of everyone’s time.
Every small monthly change in housing finance or building approvals – the market is raging one month, the boom is over the next and it’s all on again the one following – is given great significance.
The so-called property boom – the one that has been repeatedly described as national despite its absence to date in Canberra, Brisbane, Perth, Darwin, Adelaide, Hobart, the Gold Coast and most regional centres – has been declared dead at least four times since late 2013, all based on a single month’s data from a single careless source.
In each case, the declaration has been contradicted by the next month’s figures.
The outcome for consumers is confusion, misinformation and ultimately bad real estate decisions. I see the evidence of that every day. This nation is full of real estate consumers desperate for information they can trust.
Does anyone in media give a damn? There’s no evidence that anyone does. Today’s headline is the only issue under consideration.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or contact him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
Terry will be participating in a webinar on 'The Best and Worst for 2015: Top 5 Hotspots and 5 Places to Avoid' on 3 February.
Click here to <a href="/news">register now</a>.
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

A single month’s data is meaningless: Terry Ryder

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Residential rents around Australia stubbornly refuse to budge. Two sets of figures record the absence of meaningful rental growth in our capital cities in the past year.
One of the property magazines managed to concoct a “Rental growth at record levels” headline out of the figures from Domain Group and CoreLogic, but both sets of data show zero growth or falling rentals in most of the city markets.
The Domain figures for houses record no annual change for Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide and significant declines for Perth, Canberra and Darwin.
Hobart (up 3%) and Sydney (up 4%) are the only city housing markets to achieve minor growth.
Unit rents have been even more pallid. There have been annual decreases in Brisbane, Perth, Canberra and Darwin, growth around 2% in Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide, and a 3.8% in Hobart as the best effort in capital city Australia.
There are similar results in the CoreLogic research. The combined capital city average is a 1.2% rise for houses and a 2.5% rise for apartments. Nationally, rents rose an average 2.6% for both houses and apartments, which suggests some of the regional cities have done slightly better than the state and territory capitals.
Rental markets are particularly poor in Canberra, Perth and Darwin, which mirror similarly mediocre performances on house prices in those cities in 2014.
CoreLogic suggests house rents in Canberra fell an average 5% in the past year, while unit rents are down 7%.  Perth has dropped 6% for houses and 4% for apartments.
The overall scenario is residential rents going nowhere or backwards in most of Australia’s major markets.
The rental research provides one of four data sets that show that “the chronic housing shortage” fabricated by the developer lobby is real estate’s biggest lie.
The second piece of evidence is the absence of major price growth in our major cities outside of Sydney (six of the eight capitals recorded growth below 5% in 2014), despite all the factors in favour of buyers, such as low interest rates, plentiful finance options and low unemployment.
The third factor is the high level of new home construction over the past two years (approvals recently reached record levels), eliminating any lingering notions that we weren’t building enough homes. And the fourth is vacancy rates in key markets, which suggest over-supply is the core issue, particularly in capital city apartment markets and boom-bust resources centres.
Here’s one illustration of how markets behave when there really is a housing shortage – and then what happens when developers go crazy and create the opposite problem.
Two years ago, when resources-driven demand was still high and accommodation was scarce, the median house price in Port Hedland was a whacky $1.2 million, having averaged above 20% per year growth over the previous decade. The median weekly rent was $2,500 per week and typical yields were above 10%. This is what happens when a shortage is real.
Then the iron ore industry went south, which coincided with an increase in accommodation supply. Developers have many skills, but timing is not among them.
Today the median house price in Port Hedland is $810,000, after decline averaging 7.5% per year for the past three years, including a 19% decrease in the past 12 months. The investor who bought at the average price two years would have lost $400,000 in value.
The median rent is now $1,500, still ridiculously high but down 40% on peak levels, and the median rental yield is 7% - if you can find a tenant at all, given that the vacancy rate has been stuck in the 6% to 8% range for the past two years, according to SQM Research figures.
Last week I had an email from an investor who bought in this market in 2012 and was initially getting $1,750 per week. The property is now empty and advertised at $750 per week.
Such is life in mining centres, where outrageous peaks and troughs are the norm.
Such, too, is the behaviour of markets in reaction to supply-demand factors. When rents are stagnant, or declining, you can be confident that the market is tending more towards surplus than shortage.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or contact him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
Terry will be participating in a webinar on 'The Best and Worst for 2015: Top 5 Hotspots and 5 Places to Avoid' on 3 February.
Click here to <a href="/news">register now</a>.
{mijopolls 76}
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Rental data shows "chronic housing shortage" is real estate's biggest lie: Terry Ryder

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There was a momentum switch in NSW real estate in 2014. The features in the second half of the year were
<ol>
<li>The biggest Sydney growth was in the middle and outer ring areas; and</li>
<li>A number of regional centres emerged with rising markets.</li>
</ol>
In the Sydney metropolitan area in 2015, growth is likely to be led by affordable fringe areas: Camden, Campbelltown, Liverpool and Penrith. The exception will be the inner-city unit market, where new projects will attract strong sales.
But the strongest growth may come in regional cities. The Central Coast north of Sydney and the Wollongong area south of the capital have already seen big increases. Places further afield will do well in 2015: Port Macquarie, Tamworth, Dubbo, Goulburn and Albury will be among them. 
I expect Brisbane to continue its rise. This was a year of recovery for Brisbane markets and that process should continue in 2015 (unless the city gets whacked by another New Year weather event).
The places with the strongest momentum are Brisbane Northside, the Moreton Bay Region and Logan City in the south.  We can expect inner-city units to make steady sales, but beware of oversupply.
As I suggested last week, South-East Queensland - Brisbane, Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast - is the nation’s No.1 market entering 2015. The Sunshine Coast has $15 billion in investment driving its transition from a tourist resort to a regional city. The genuine housing markets of the Gold Coast will do plenty of business, but I would avoid the coastal high-rise (permanently).
Toowoomba and Cairns will remain strong – both have considerable growth drivers. Townsville has been sluggish but should improve in 2015.
Investors should continue to avoid Gladstone for the time being, but we may see signs of recovery in centres hurt by the coal downturn – among them Emerald and Mackay.
Adelaide has undoubted momentum. There are suburbs with growing sales levels right across the city. The more affordable areas, like the Salisbury LGA in the north, stand out. I don’t expect boom-style growth, but Adelaide should have a solid year.
There are also several regional centres with growth markets in South Australia, including Mt Gambier, Murray Bridge and Port Augusta.
Melbourne hasn’t had a boom but it has delivered good growth in the past two years. Now the momentum has shifted from the centre to the outer areas. The Sunshine precinct is strong, as are middle-market areas like Monash City.
I expect good 2015 growth in the Whittlesea, Casey, Frankston and Mornington Peninsula LGAs. In the regions, Ballarat and Bendigo will gather strength as major infrastructure, like the $5 billion Regional Rail Link, nears completion.
After a couple of solid years, Perth tapered off in 2014, although growth markets remain. There will still be momentum in 2015 in the cheaper areas like Rockingham.
The regions south of Perth will be market leaders, including Mandurah, Bunbury and Busselton. The Real Estate Institute of WA says Busselton was No.1 for price growth in 2014 – and that concurs with my own research – but the regional centre with the greatest head of steam is Mandurah.
Darwin is always a difficult market to read. What I do know is that Darwin is one of the nation’s most consistent cities. It has the highest price growth rate among the capital cities, the highest rents and the highest capital city yields. Sales levels have been very consistent over the past two years.
There are two areas of concern: one is an oversupply of inner-city units and the other is the impact when construction of the $30 billion Ichthys gas project winds down. I would treat Darwin with some caution in 2015 until things become clearer.
Outside the Territory capital, Katherine is a market to watch. It will benefit from two significant events: expansion of the nearby RAAF Base and further stages of the Ord River scheme across the border in Western Australia.
Hobart is quietly picking up pace, although it’s unlikely to break any records on price growth next year.
Canberra continues to get left behind by the other capital cities. News about down-sizing the public service continues to hurt confidence. Steer clear of the Canberra unit market, which has been in steady decline for two years.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or contact him on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
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Here’s what I see coming up next year

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People keep lining up to win my coveted “misinformation of the year” award. New contenders have nominated themselves with the publication of a list that purports to name the 10 best places to buy for high yields.
This one is also in the running for “most humorous material masquerading as research”.
The funny thing about the <a href="/expert-insights/investing/australia-s-top-10-highest-yielding-house-suburbs-corelogic">10 best-yielding locations list</a>, published by CoreLogic RP Data, is that it’s almost identical to my “worst places to buy in Australia” list.
As part of the Price Predictor Index, which generally charts rising markets around the nation, I publish what I call The Dirty Dozen – the 12 worst places to buy. These are places where the market is in serious trouble, with sales activity falling, followed inevitably by price decline.
The Top 10 rental yields list from CoreLogic includes five of my Dirty Dozen. Four others listed as high yielding were serious Dirty Dozen contenders but narrowly missed the cut.
They’re all places with massive vacancies, falling rentals and declining markets. The only place on the Top 10 rental yields list worthy of consideration by investors is Broken Hill.
Number one on the Top 10 rental yields list was Miles in Queensland. This was a truly tragic choice because the property market in Miles is the biggest basket case in Australian real estate, bar none. One in three properties is vacant. Even Moranbah is doing better than this.
To suggest you can get a 9.8% rental yield in Miles is laughable. The rental yield for most landlords out there is zero. You can’t have a yield if you can’t find a tenant.
Here’s what I wrote in The Dirty Dozen: “The property market in Miles has been effectively destroyed (by developer oversupply). Vacancies are now 30% and the median house price has dropped 27% in the past 12 months. It now takes six months, and discounting around 20%, to sell a house. In the past five quarters, house sales in Miles have dropped from 24 to 15 to 12 to six to one.
“It’s little better in Chinchilla, where sales volumes have dropped from 78, to 51 to 40 to 27 to 19 in the past five consecutive quarters and the median house price is down 10%. The vacancy rate in Chinchilla is now 19%, according to SQM Research. Another market to vanish without trace is Wandoan, where there have been just two sales in 2014.”
Number two on the Top 10 high yields list was Newman in Western Australia. The vacancy rate in Newman is 11% and typical rents are now less than half their peak levels. Rental yields, previously in double digits, are now 5.3%, according to Australian Property Monitors – not the 9.8% quoted by CoreLogic.
Kambalda East came in at number three and Kambalda West was number eight. The two Kambaldas together have a vacancy rate a tick under 20%. Good luck achieving the 8.9% rental yield claimed by CoreLogic.
Queenstown in Tasmania was number four on the list. Here’s my report on Queenstown: “If there’s a more depressing town in Australia, or a more depressed property market, please tell me about it. This town in Tasmania’s wild west resembles the film set for a western movie, with tumbleweeds in the main street.
“The median house price ($90,000) says a lot. It’s been as low as $70,000 this year, which was lower than it was five years ago, having dropped an average of 3% per year since 2009. The typical house on the market takes seven months and discounting around 15% to sell. The vacancy rate is 17%, according to SQM Research. The mid-year closures of the Mt Lyell copper mine and the Henty gold mine, with the loss of hundreds of jobs, haven’t helped.
“Nearby towns Zeehan and Rosebery are equally depressed, with a vacancy rate around 25% in Zeehan. You can buy cottages for under $50,000, not that there’s a reason to.”
The Top 10 list also includes other seriously declining markets about which I have written recently, like South Hedland, Port Hedland and Karratha, which has recorded the biggest decline in prices in WA (down 40%), according to the Real Estate Institute of Western Australia.
The problem with this kind of sloppy “research” is that it’s picked up by media and repeated as credible information. Local media has reported these locations as being as among the nation’s leading hotspots.
Anyone silly enough to act on the interference that these are good places to invest will end up, in many cases, without any yield at all.
You can contact Terry via  <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
Photo: Michael Sigrist/<a class="mw-mmv-license" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">CC BY-SA 3.0</a>.
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The 'highest yielding suburbs' are almost identical to my 'worst places to buy in Australia' list

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There’s a pretty good argument that the hottest property precinct in Australia right now is South East Queensland.
Brisbane, the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast: Together they comprise a vast metropolitan area - ongoing urban growth means these three big centres have merged into one big conurbation which starts at the NSW border and extends 250 kilometers north to Noosa.
All three have hot markets. The research conducted by Hotspotting for the latest edition of the Price Predictor Index revealed 254 suburbs across South East Queensland with rising sales activity.
To put that in perspective, the Sydney metropolitan area has 106 growth suburbs. If you add in the Central Coast, which has caught the growth wave from the capital city, there are 120 growth markets.
This shows that, while Sydney is the nation’s hottest big market in terms of price growth, it’s starting to fade (though not markedly, as yet), while South East Queensland is starting to rise.
So when you see headlines suggesting that the boom is fading and price growth is starting to dissipate, remember that it’s Sydney they’re talking about. There are markets elsewhere in Australia that are really just starting their run.
They include Adelaide and Hobart, as well as numerous regional cities in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia.
But the headline event is the rise of South East Queensland. While there has been some price growth in 2014, to date it has been fairly moderate.
The big shift has been in sales volumes and that’s what I mean when I say there are 254 growth suburbs in the region – 254 suburbs throughout Brisbane, the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast with distinct patterns of rising sales activity.
The greatest price growth will come in 2015.
I remain hesitant about the Gold Coast. There’s no doubt that the oversupply that has dragged down this market for five years has now been absorbed – and that there is a significant real estate recovery under way.
The heartening thing is that most of the growth suburbs on the Gold Coast at the moment are what I would call genuine housing markets – inland suburbs where houses are being sold, rather than coastal locations where highrise apartments are flogged to investors and speculators.
Unfortunately, that will change. Now that the Gold Coast is back on a growth path, developers are flocking back, intent on creating the next oversupply. Driven more by ego and greed than common sense, developers are competing for the title of biggest project and tallest tower.
And, like their counterparts in Melbourne, it’s all designed for sale to Chinese investors. It won’t end well.
Beyond that cautionary note, the message about Brisbane and South East Queensland looks highly positive at the moment.
The opportunity for investors lies in understanding that the rise in sale volumes we have seen in 2014 is a forerunner to significant price growth.
South East Queensland has more momentum now than does Sydney, but it’s not yet reflected in price growth data.
That is yet to come.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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The baton is passing from Sydney to South East Queensland

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The most predictable thing to happen in Australian real estate this year is the decision not to proceed with an $8 billion resort in Cairns.
The alleged Hong Kong billionaire who was allegedly planning to spend billions building an extravaganza in North Queensland has reportedly decided to spit the dummy because he can’t get what he wants.
There was always an unreal quality about this scheme. I can’t imagine anyone spending that amount of money on a resort anywhere in the world, let alone in a small regional city in Australia.
Almost exactly a year ago, <a href="/news/qld/theres-many-reasons-to-invest-in-cairns-but-a-grandiose-resort-complex-is-not-one-of-them">I wrote this</a> on Property Observer: “There are many reasons to consider buying in Cairns. But a grandiose plan for a $4.2 billion (as it was then) resort complex should not be one of them.
“Earlier this year, Hong Kong businessman Tony Fung announced his plan for the biggest tourism property development Australia has seen. Aquis will have nine hotels with 3,750 rooms plus 1,200 apartments, a sports stadium, a convention centre, an 18-hole golf course and an aquarium clustered around an aquatic paradise. The artists impression looks like something you might expect to see in Dubai or Macau.
“Queensland Premier Campbell Newman got quite excited about it and promised to wave it through the approval processes as only a conservative Queensland government can.
“And, according to reports, many developers and investors are excited, too. Suddenly Cairns is on the radar screen, in a way that hasn't happened since the frothy days of Japanese mega investment in the 80s. There's been a surge in building applications which the council says is inspired by the Aquis proposal.
“Frankly, it's all rather ridiculous. A $4.2 billion resort development in a regional city of 150,000? I'll believe it when I see it.”
Well, it looks like I’ll never see it. And you’ll notice that, along the way, the $4.2 billion resort proposal has morphed into an $8 billion proposal.
So, here’s the core lesson. A lot of people got excited about this proposal and wanted to invest in Cairns. That was seriously not logical. Sadly, too many people make investment decisions based on the hype surrounding an extraordinary event.
<blockquote>
Sadly, too many people make investment decisions based on the hype surrounding an extraordinary event.
</blockquote>
Here’s the question every investor must ask when they get excited about a location on the basis of one major proposed event: If this major event does not go ahead, is this still a good place to invest?
If the answer is no, don’t buy there.
Fortunately, the answer in the case of Cairns is yes. For the past two years, I have been recommending Cairns a good place to consider for property investment. The Fung furphy was never part of the equation that led me to that recommendation. When I first put Cairns in my hotspots reports, the grandiose resort had not been announced.
Cairns stacks up for other reasons. It’s an example of a regional centre which has struggled in the past because its economy was fundamentally based on tourism – but which is now moving to a new level because (a) the economy is diversifying; (b) big money is being spent on infrastructure; and (c) as a bonus tourism has come back strongly, led by a big influx from China.
Cairns also has the best rental yields in Australia, including mining towns  (most of which are no longer providing high yields, because of high vacancies and sharply falling rentals).
And, in the past 12 months, most of the suburbs of Cairns have delivered double-digit price growth, with some growing above 20%.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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Not all doom and gloom for Cairns, despite $8 billion resort falling through

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The emergence of markets in regional New South Wales ranks among the most noteworthy features of Australian real estate in 2014.
Partly for local reasons and partly through the ripple effect from Sydney’s buoyant market, there are growing numbers of regional NSW cities and towns with growth property markets.
This started earlier in the year in locations close to Sydney, including Gosford, Newcastle, the Blue Mountains and Wollongong.
The research conducted for the latest edition of The Price Predictor Index, which charts sales activity for every suburb and town across Australia, shows that more distant markets are now stirring to life. They include <a href="/news">Tamworth</a>, <a href="/news">Port Macquarie</a>, <a href="/news">Albury</a>, <a href="/news">Orange </a>and <a href="/news">Dubbo</a>.
Some are locations which have been dismal performers on capital growth over the past 10 years, but are now recording significant upturns in market activity, with prices starting to follow. Port Macquarie and Gosford are examples.
One of the strongest pockets of regional NSW growth is the Central Coast area focused on the Gosford and Wyong LGAs. They were among the first to rise and they continue to be strong precincts.
16 of the suburbs in the Gosford LGA are ranked markets - rated in the index as either ‘rising fast’, ‘rising steadily’ or ‘consistency’ markets. As one example, sales in <a href="/news">East Gosford</a> have risen from 29 to 36 to 55 in consecutive quarters this year.
The Wyong LGA has 15 ranked suburbs, including eight rated as ‘rising steadily’ and seven as ‘consistency’ markets.
The wider Newcastle area continues to deliver growth markets and others marked by admirable consistency. The LGAs of Newcastle, Lake Macquarie and <a href="/news">Port Stephens</a> all have ranked suburbs, including 11 in the Newcastle municipality.
There are also glimmers of life in some of the nearby Hunter Valley areas, which have been suppressed over the past two years by developer oversupply and a reduction in coal-related demand. The Maitland LGA in particular appears to be mounting a revival.
Further north, the Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie, Ballina and Tweed municipalities all have emerging markets.
House sales in Port Macquarie have risen from 200-220 per quarter in 2012-13 to 300-plus in 2013-14. In <a href="/news">Ballina</a>, sales in the past six consecutive quarters have been 18, 36, 42, 45, 43 and 51 – this is the kind of pattern that delivers price growth.
The Blue Mountains area is demonstrating the resilience in the face of natural disasters which is a characteristic of Australia. Devastated by bushfires a year ago, the region has bounced back strongly. <a href="/news">Blackheath</a>, <a href="/news">Katoomba </a>and <a href="/news">Lithgow </a>are among the growth markets in that region.
South of Sydney, the Wollongong and Shoalhaven area have numerous strong markets.
Inland regional centres with growth prospects include <a href="/news">Dubbo</a>, Albury, <a href="/news">Bathurst</a>, Orange, <a href="/news">Tamworth </a>and <a href="/news">Goulburn</a>.
In Goulburn, near Canberra, quarterly sales have risen from 116 to 120 to 134 to 155 since late last year.
The key thing to note is that it takes time before this kind of upturn in sales activity translates into price escalation. The locations which were first to spring to life, such as the suburbs of the Gosford LGA, have already had strong prices growth. Many of these suburbs have recorded median price growth above 12% in the past 12 months.
But most of the regional centres I’ve mentioned, the ones that have only recently lifted sales activity, are yet to record major price growth.
Places like Goulburn, Port Macquarie, Bathurst and Orange have recorded growth below 5% to date. Given the pattern of sales activity, more price growth is likely to follow.
You can contact Terry via  <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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Gosford, Newcastle and Port Macquarie among NSW's top emerging regional markets

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EXCLUSIVE: Negative gearing – what needs to change?

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While some commentators suggest a slowdown in city markets, there’s little evidence of that in Melbourne.
There are growth markets spread throughout the Melbourne metropolitan area. There isn’t a single market leader, but strong precincts north, south, east and west of the Melbourne CBD.
Local government areas that feature as places with forward momentum include Brimbank in Melbourne’s west; Monash in the mid south-east; Casey, Kingston and Greater Dandenong in the far south-east; Mornington Peninsula in the far south; Whitehorse in the east; Darebin in the mid north; and Whittlesea in the far north.
Upmarket areas such as the Boroondara LGA (including Balwyn, Ashburton, Hawthorn and Kew), and the Glen Eira LGA (Bentleigh, Elsternwick and Caulfield) feature, but most of the standout precincts are middle market and bottom end suburbs.
Melbourne’s up-cycle began in 2013 with the inner city and the prestige suburbs of the inner south-east. But in 2014 the momentum has spread increasingly to the middle ring and outer ring suburbs.
Whittlesea in the north of the metropolitan area is a strongly emerging precinct, where suburbs like Epping, Mill Park and Thomastown have rising sales volumes. In consecutive quarters this year Epping house sales have risen from 75 to 112 to 115, while Mill Park has jumped from 64 to 86 to 97 houses sales per quarter.
The key feature for the suburbs in this precinct is affordability (median house prices in the high $300,000s), coupled with good transport links and easy access to major jobs nodes.
The Darebin municipality in the mid north is another rising precinct, where Preston, Thornbury and Reservoir stand out. Sales in Preston, normally around 100 per quarter, were 170 to 180 in both the June and September Quarters.
The Brimbank LGA in the western suburbs continues to stand out, based around the suburb of Sunshine. Sales volumes in Sunshine North have been 36, 45, 48, 54 and 61 in consecutive quarters, a pattern that inevitably generates prices growth.
Again, it’s the power combination of affordability, good infrastructure (including a major hospital and two university campuses) and jobs nodes that drives this precinct, with the major boost of the Melbourne transport hub for the Regional Rail Link on the way.
Similar forces are pushing the market in the Casey LGA in the south-east, where there are eight growth markets. Nearby Greater Dandenong has five rising suburbs.
The Kingston LGA, which includes middle market suburbs such as Cheltenham and Parkdale, continues to emerge.
Other middle market areas to feature are the Monash and Whitehorse LGAs.
Monash City, another precinct boosted by the presence of major education and medial infrastructure, has multiple growth markets, while the Whitehorse LGA east of the Melbourne CBD has eight rising suburbs, including Box Hill, Blackburn, Forest Hill and Surrey Hills.
Market momentum in the Melbourne metropolitan area spreads down to the Mornington Peninsula in the far south, where suburbs like Dromana, Blairgowrie, Rosebud and Mount Martha are moving forward.
Dromana, which was making 40 to 45 sales per quarter last year, is now doing 60 to 70. Inevitably, price growth has followed, with the median house price up 11% in the past 12 months.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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Momentum shifts to Melbourne's more affordable markets

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Most real estate articles published these days are nothing more than press releases with headlines. There is no journalistic content, other than (sometimes) a quick re-write for which the journalist claims a byline as if it’s an original piece of creative work.
The result, usually, is misinformation. It’s the inevitable outcome because a press release is a piece of propaganda written by someone with a vested interested in the claims being made. Often the content consists of lies disguised as research or sensational claims designed to generate cheap publicity for the authors or their companies.
If a media organisation publishes the propaganda without proper scrutiny and journalistic input (asking questions of the source, seeking alternative viewpoints, conducting other research, etc) then the media organisation is misinforming its customers.
Misinformation is a serious issue because real estate consumers base major decisions on what they absorb from media. A decision based on bad information is a bad decision, likely to lead to a poor investment outcome.
Often the content of a press release is designed for no purpose other than to generate media profile for the organisation writing it. The more sensational the material, the more likely it is to be published.
So it was this week, with what I see as worst example of this problem in 2014.
<blockquote>
Misinformation is a serious issue because a decision based on bad information is a bad decision, likely to lead to a poor investment outcome.
</blockquote>
A mortgage broking firm came up with what some of the nation’s largest newspapers called “analysis” to estimate house prices will be in our capital cities 10 years from now.
They made the attention-grabbing conclusion that all the capital cities except Hobart will have median house prices above $1 million within a decade. One Sydney newspaper printed it with this unbelievable headline: “House prices to soar as skyrocketing rises continue.”
And what was the “analysis” that arrived at this startling result? The mortgage brokers simply concocted a fictitious growth figure and applied it equally to all eight capital cities. This is the first clue that this is nonsense.
Somehow, we’re expected to believe that all eight cities will grow at exactly the same rate between now and 2024 – and that the magical figure is 8.12% per year.
Where this figure came from was not explained.
It should be already apparent that this has no credibility - but in case it’s not, let me illustrate by examining the past 10 years based on actual data.
Last month, data recorded the growth rates for median house prices in the eight capital cities since 2004 finding that the weighted average across the eight cities was recorded at 5.44% per year. You can <a href="/expert-insights/investing/which-capitals-did-not-double-in-value-over-the-last-10-years">see here which capital cities managed to perform</a>.
So my first question is: given that the past decade has included a couple of major growth periods, and the average growth rate was 5.44%, what drivers will push growth rates above and beyond that to 8.12%? Why will the next decade be so much more prolific than the last (particularly as most commentators, myself included, expect the opposite to be true)?
Looking again at the past 10 years, there were big differences in the growth rates from one city to the next. Hobart and Sydney grew around 3% per year on average. Canberra managed a tick under 4% a year. Brisbane’s growth rate was 4.4% a year and Melbourne’s was 4.8%.
The best performers, and this correlates with other research from other sources, were Perth (averaging almost 9%) and Darwin (averaging slightly less than 10%).
So here’s my next question: given that the growth rates in the individual cities ranged from 3% in Hobart to 5% in Melbourne to 10% in Darwin, why will all cities grow at exactly the same rate between now and 2024?
The answer is that they won’t. They never have and I dare say they never will.
And, as an offshoot to that question, how will the five cities which grew less than 5% a year over the past decade manage better than 8% a year over the one to come?
The mortgage broking firm which published this rubbish conducted no “analysis” – they threw together some rubbery figures and sat back smiling while major newspapers published it as credible information.
This wins my annual awards for the worst piece of misinformation for the year, the most shameless grab for publicity and the worst example of non-journalism.
It would be comical, were it not so serious.
You can contact Terry via  <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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Terry Ryder

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