Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tsioMLcnjas?si=zq-ys3JuWpfa5hFv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Terry Ryder

<html><body>
Real estate would be a delight for investors, were it not for the real estate “industry”.
There are times when the industry appears to exist only to mislead consumers into taking action not in their best interests.
Consumers’ best interests are subverted by industry vested interests.
There are myriad examples. Here’s one. There’s a company that makes it money marketing property in specific locations. But the principal markets himself as a mentor. Someone who guides investors on how to buy the best properties in the best locations.
A recent promo advised consumers on the best places to buy for high yields. By the purest of coincidences, the “top three picks” in Australia to buy for positive cash-flow were all places where the company is marketing product.
They included the company’s specialty area, the Pilbara region of Western Australia. South Hedland and Karratha were recommended as the best places in the nation to buy.
Here’s the pitch from the “mentor”:
“I’m a big believer in investing for cash flow and I’m always keeping an eye on which locations around the country are performing well in this area. Knowing how to locate these is vital if you want to find positive cash flow properties in Australia.
“I have some great strategies for how to locate high yield investment properties, but for now I want to share with you my top three property picks.
“There are plenty of towns where investors are achieving higher yields than those that I suggest. However, I have greater confidence in the long term outlook for the ones I’ve featured in my blog.”
He then suggests areas in which his company is a major marketer of off the plan apartments and other properties.
Here’s the reality for Port Hedland/South Hedland and Karratha. Both markets are in decline but remain outrageously overpriced.
The median house price for <a href="/news">Port Hedland</a> was $1.2 million, but has dropped 17% in 12 months and is now down to $970,000 - still way too high for investors to consider.
Rents have declined a lot so, despite the price drop, yields are typically 8%. In the boom times they were commonly 12%. Vacancies have been around 6% since late in 2012 and this market is still falling, with discounting of about 11%, according to Australian Property Monitors.
<blockquote>
Here’s the reality for Port Hedland/South Hedland and Karratha. Both markets are in decline but remain outrageously overpriced.
</blockquote>
Nearby South Hedland is also in rapid decline, with the median house price down 6% and the median unit price down 14% in the past year. The marketing company says yields from 9% to 12% are typical, but APM says the median yields is 7.8% for houses and 7.5% for units. It takes six months to sell on average, with discounting around 12%.
It’s even uglier in <a href="/news">Karratha</a>, with price decline steeper, yields lower, discounting higher and time on market longer.
In the Karratha suburb of <a href="/news">Nickol</a>, the median house price has dropped 17% in 12 months. That includes 5% in the most recent quarter, so the market is still falling. The last time there was any price growth was 2010, with the market sagging an average 12% per year for the past three years.
Discounting is around 13% and it takes five months to sell the average Nickol property. In nearby <a href="/news">Pegs Creek</a>, it takes seven months to sell.
Typical yields are claimed by the marketing company to be 8-10%, but APM indicates 6-7%, amid 6% vacancies.
Keep in mind that the mentor says these are not just good places to buy, but the best places to buy in Australia. Mentors like this you don’t need.
To provide a further feel for how this organisation pitches to consumers, here’s what is claimed to be a testimonial from a “seminar attendee” …
“I spent an evening at (name of presenter)’s seminar and all I have to say is: this guy delivers. It was a supersonic combo of strategic investment insights and wealth-building how-to’s from people who walk the talk. Incredible speakers, killer content and amazing connections, all brought together in one jam-packed evening. They clearly have a talent for creating a valuable, education, high-energy experience.”
The chances of a genuine customer writing such a tribute are zero. A “supersonic combo”? Who talks like that?
You will note they claimed it came from a “seminar attendee”, which was probably a team member or possibly the seminar presenter himself. Technically, it’s not untrue.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
Image courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Port Hedland and Karratha "the best places to buy"? Don't get roped into that one

<html><body>
What are we to believe about the state of the mythical national property boom?
We were told it was over, based on the figures for May, but now the data for June suggests it’s still very much still on.
When RP Data rushed out its findings for May, commentators competed to be the first to declare “the boom is over”. It didn’t seem to bother any of them that the boom had been declared to be finished twice before, only to be contradicted by subsequent data from the same source.
Now it’s happened again. June figures show a 1.4% index rise for the combined capital cities. Annualised, that equates to double-digit growth - if you believe the figures.
I’ve been scouring media sources over the past week to read the apologies from all those self-proclaimed analysts who misled the Australian public by declaring the death of something that appears very much alive.
To date, no apology has been forthcoming.
Do they all deem it of no consequence that they grossly misinformed consumers about a matter of considerable importance? Is it just a game they play in the pursuit of publicity? Are they really that shallow and lacking in ethical substance? Apparently so.
In reality, none of these monthly movements in median prices or price indexes mean a damn thing. That is the core message of this latest media fiasco on the state of the mythical property boom.
Monthly movements are meaningless. That is true of house prices, just as it is for retail spending or building approvals or the jobless rate. The graph depicting data on any economic or real estate subject is never smooth. There are always monthly aberrations.
The only thing of any relevance is the longer-term trend.
I’m quite certain most of the people publishing or commenting on real estate data know this to be true. If they do not, they’re incompetent and have no right to put their views into the public arena.
So, why do they do it? Because they don’t care if they misinform and confuse the public, so long as they further the end game - publicity for themselves and their businesses.
They’re shysters, every one of them.
The data for the financial year just ended shows why I term the national property boom “mythical”. The annual figures suggest that only Sydney has had a property boom.
A true national boom is when all - or, at least, most - capital cities plus major regional centres have double-digit price growth.
If we are to believe RP Data, five of the eight capital cities, plus the regions, had annual growth lower than 6% in the 2014 financial year. Only Sydney among the major markets across the nation had double-digit growth.
Brisbane grew 7% and Melbourne about 9%. Solid markets, but not booming ones. Not yet, anyway.
Bogus analysts, including most economists, simply look at the national average figure - 10% in this case - and declare that to mean something: a national boom, or a bubble, and then start looking around for someone to “blame” for runaway house prices across the nation.
The usual suspects are negative gearing, first home buyer grants, foreign investors, property taxes, low interest rates and the equally mythical housing shortage. One commentator recently tied himself in knots trying to construct an argument that other countries’ economic policies were to blame.
The reality is that Sydney’s data has inflated the national figure. The national city average might be 10% but only Sydney has recorded growth that big.
Some of those analysts know no better. They look at a graph on their computer screen, which is the extent of their knowledge of real estate matters, and pontificate about the “national property market”.
Others do know better but are too lazy or dishonest to put together a thoughtful and thorough analysis.
As a result, the great seething mass of misinformation grows larger by the day.
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Latest media fiasco shows exactly why monthly movements are meaningless

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You may be surprised to learn that the greatest place to live in Australia is … wait for it, Canberra!
In another of those pointless exercises in which bureaucrats take delight, the Organisation of Economic Co-operation has developed a global well-being matching tool, which considers factors such as safety, health, services, life expectancy, environment, crime rates and income.
Using this exciting new technology, it has determined that Canberra outranks every other city in Australia as the best place to live out your days.
This being so, you might wonder why Sydney has 4.6 million residents and Canberra 380,000, and why there are eight Australia cities with more people than Canberra. Even Tasmania has more residents than the ACT.
Apparently all those poor saps in Sydney don’t know that Canberra is a superior city. Imagine - four million Australians, living a lie.
But here’s an important thought: despite what the OECD tool says about life expectancy, you don’t live longer in Canberra, it just feels that way.
Do the OECD boffins realise that living in Canberra means having Tony Abbott as a neighbour? Or, even worse, Clive Palmer?
Another relevant question is this: if Canberra’s so damn good, how come it’s the worst-performing property market in capital city Australia?
Every other city is showing at least some forward movement in its property markets, but Australia’s best place to be is going nowhere.
Prices have stagnated at a time of very high growth down the road in inferior Sydney. Canberra rents are going backwards and developers of apartment buildings are having to downsize through lack of buyer interest.
Auction clearance rates are 53% for houses and 36% for apartments.
<a href="/news">Goulburn</a>, not far from Canberra, is showing solid growth, but in the capital there’s little in the way of meaningful growth.
<a href="/news">Gosford</a>, where the federal government plans to send 600 Canberra jobs, apparently oblivious to the OECD’s findings, is booming.
Canberra markets are stalled by uncertainty and nervousness resulting from the federal government’s plans to make big cuts to the public sector workforce.
Canberra has maintained consistent turnover of residential property, quarter by quarter, throughout 2013 and into early 2014. The city seems to churn through 1,250 to 1,300 home sales each quarter with consistency.
But, unlike every other capital city in Australia, it has no suburbs charging forward price-wise.
At the top end of the Canberra market, prices are falling. In upmarket <a href="/news">Yarralumla</a>, the median price has dropped 7% in the past 12 months. In <a href="/news">Griffith</a>, the median price has fallen 12% (but remains above $1 million). Equally swanky <a href="/news">Red Hill</a> has dropped 14% in 12 months.
So, a damn fine place to live, if you don’t mind stiff winters and lousy neighbours, but not a great place to own real estate at the moment.
You can contact Terry via  <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
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Canberra ranked "the best place to live", but it's certainly not the best place to buy

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I suppose you can’t blame them for trying. But you can blame them for the lack of originality and imagination.
People developing a residential estate in Mackay, where the market’s a tad unwell, are trying to pump up business. Their sales pitch? Now is the time to buy!
The market’s bottomed, recovery is just around the corner, so don’t delay or you’ll miss out. Compelling stuff.
First, a reality check on Mackay. A double-whammy has struck in the past 12 months. Demand inspired by the coal industry has fallen away, at a time when developers – always a year or two behind the play – have brought on lots of new supply.
At the end of 2012, residential vacancies were below 2%. In the 18 months since then, they’ve been rising steadily. They’re now 7% and they’re still going up.
A year ago in central <a href="/news">Mackay</a>, the median house price was a tick under $400,000, after 10% growth in the preceding 12 months, and rents were strong, providing a median yield of 6.5%.
Fast-forward 12 months and the median price is down to $355,000. Rents have fallen also and the median yield has reduced to 5.9% (Australian Property Monitors figures). It takes six months to sell a house, on average, and 13% is the typical discount to make a sale.
Around other parts of the Mackay market, it’s a similar scenario: prices down as much as 10% in the past 12 months, including a significant reduction in the past three months.
The clear message is: one, the Mackay market is down, and two, it’s still falling. This is definitely not the time to buy.
The bottom line is, this should not be happening. Mackay is a solid citizen of regional Queensland. It has lots going for it, including an export port, a strong agricultural sector and plenty of tourism. Even with the local resources sector in decline, its market would normally remain steady.
But developers did what they always do – they piled into what appeared to be a boom market and built too much too late. In their inimitable fashion, they’ve plucked defeat from the jaws of victory.
Do these people ever do any research? Do they notice that they’re not the only people trying to exploit a boom market?
It’s as if each operates in an isolated bubble and eventually wakes up, with: "Oh my god, I didn’t notice all those other projects being built at the same time."
So here we have one group putting out a press release, trying to convince people they should dash out and buy a home, preferably in their estate, which I gather is not excelling at the moment.
They say the current oversupply means great deals for buyers. And it says the market is tipped to recover in the second quarter of 2015.
So, let’s see what they’re saying. We’ve just ended the second quarter of 2014, and “property valuation experts” tip a recovery in the second quarter of 2015, so now is the time to buy?
I would have thought that, by this line of logic, early next year would be the time to buy. Right now, the market is still falling.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
Photo courtesy of eTravel Guide/<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/" target="_blank">Creative Commons</a>.
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Mackay market is down and it’s still falling

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Recent reports from economic forecaster BIS Shrapnel have brought some strong counter arguments to a couple of real estate’s biggest furphies.
It has disputed claims that “the boom is over” and it has presented views which contradict the general party line from the property industry that there’s a chronic housing shortage.
The “boom is over” stories were prompted primarily by figures for May from RP Data, which indicated some price decline – the third time in the past eight months that the same source has prompted claims of impending downturn, only to be submerged by later figures showing further growth.
What odds that the June figures will show resurgence, thereby rendering those earlier predictions redundant?
As Louis Christopher of SQM Research commented recently, people and organisations making outlandish claims for publicity reasons generally rely on “the community’s collective amnesia” to cover their tracks.
BIS Shrapnel said it believed the<a href="/expert-insights/buying/sydney-slowdown-fears-premature-15-unit-growth-tipped-over-next-two-years-bis-shrapnel"> “boom is over” claims to be rather premature for Sydney</a>, with the apartment market in particularly to remain strong.
The forecaster’s latest report, looking at price growth up to 2017, sees price growth eventually tapering off in some cities, with an oversupply of dwellings a major contributor.
That’s a useful observation, in the light of constant claims from the building and development sector about a “chronic housing shortage crisis”.
Claims from political entities like the Housing Industry Association and the Urban Development Institute of Australia about a serious shortage, never supported by any definitive data, are always followed in the next breath by a wish list of actions demanded from government, all of them highly beneficial to builders and developers.
It’s easy to believe that some organisation concoct convenient “research” to support an argument that governments need to make life cosy for developers – release lots of land, speed up approvals, reduce infrastructure charges and eliminate unwelcome taxes – all motivated, you understand, by a desire to provide cheap homes to needy people.
As I’ve often remarked, the biggest noise in real estate is the voice of vested interest.
Recently the UDIA in NSW was shallow enough to urge government not to provide assistance to first home buyers because it would unleash unsustainable demand that the industry couldn’t meet because of the chronic shortage.
The UDIA wants us to believe its members are standing on the sidelines, desperate to provide new homes to a clamouring public, but rendered impotent because developers don’t own any land on which to build, because none is available. It’s laughable but that’s the line they keep running.
The evidence is that the biggest issue in real estate is not shortage, but the opposite.
Many of our inner-city markets have oversupplies of apartments, led by Melbourne where the situation is serious and destined to get worse. There are legitimate concerns about Brisbane, Canberra, Perth and Darwin.
Sydney doesn’t have an apartment oversupply yet, but within two to three years it’s likely to have a big one.
Most of the boom markets which sprung up around resources related towns and regional cities are now in marked decline, caused by over-building by developers. In that category are Gladstone, Mackay, Emerald, the Bowen Basin coal towns, several Surat Basin towns, the Hunter region of NSW and several mining towns in Western Australia.
The Gold Coast has just emerged from five terrible years caused by oversupply and now, just as growth returns, <a href="/expert-insights/investing/gold-coast-enters-growth-phase-but-is-it-really-a-good-place-to-invest">is working hard on generating the next big apartment glut</a>.
The BIS Shrapnel report which forecasts price movements in major city markets over the next three years, sees Melbourne prices eventually going backwards, largely because of the oversupply I mentioned earlier.
It sees similar problems in other major cities, although not so much for Sydney and Brisbane.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
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Biggest issue in real estate is not shortage - it's the opposite

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There’s no doubt the Gold Coast residential market is entering a growth phase. After five bad years, in which prices went backwards, the Gold Coast is moving again.
Sales activity is rising strongly across the region and the latest figures from the Real Estate Institute of Queensland suggest prices are moving in the right direction.
But we remain opposed to investment in this market.
Here’s an example of why. On 12 June, the Gold Coast Bulletin published a news article under this headline: '104-storey Southport tower poised to steal Q1 crown of Southern Hemisphere’s tallest residential high rise'.
Apparently a three-tower complex called Imperial City is planned for Southport. The building will be 75, 85 and 104 storeys, dwarfing the 78-storey Q1 which is currently tallest high-rise on the Gold Coast, as well as in Australia and Southern Hemisphere.
Imperial City will contain 2,200 apartments, as well as 200 student rooms and a 200-room hotel.
The Gold Coast Bulletin reported: 
"The project has been welcomed by city leaders, with area councillor Dawn ­Crichlow declaring Imperial City would be the jewel in Southport’s development crown. “This is one of a range of Southport developments before the council at the moment and the number, as well as the size of this project, are a real show of faith,” she said.
"Southport MP and Assistant Planning Minister Rob Molhoek said he was “incredibly excited” by the proposal. “There are more than 17 major development approvals in line for Southport right now which is a testament to the fact that the CBD is on its way back to its former glory,” he said
“If this gets approved and built it would be a symbol of everything we are trying to achieve right now.”
That pretty much sums it up. This latest monument to a developer’s ego is seen on the Gold Coast as “a symbol of everything we are trying to achieve”.
Presumably Molhoek and Crichlow like oversupply and falling property values. The mentality of civic leaders and business people on the Gold Coast never seems to change. The place lurches from boom to bust, relentlessly and repeatedly, because this is how they think. They see the Gold Coast as a theme park for foreign tourists and property speculators, rather than as a city with families who needs services and jobs. If it reaches for the sky, it has to be good.
Just when the Gold Coast has soaked up its surplus of apartments, a process that took five agonising years, its developers and politicians are sowing the seeds of the next calamitous glut. The Imperial City monstrosity is one of many mega proposals for the glitter strip. New ones are announced weekly.
If you must buy on the Gold Coast, avoid the highrise. Buy houses in an inland suburb.
These are the areas of the Gold Coast market that really stand out in the research I’ve just completed for The Price Predictor Index. 
Rising markets include <a href="/news">Nerang</a>, <a href="/news">Mudgeeraba</a>, <a href="/news">Coombabah</a>, <a href="/news">Arundel</a>, <a href="/news">Ashmore</a>, <a href="/news">Carrara</a>, <a href="/news">Coomera </a>and <a href="/news">Varsity Lakes</a> – all housing markets inland, away from the skyscraper insanity.
Lest you forget, the latest edition of the REIQ’s quarterly report reminds us that if you bought the typical Surfers Paradise apartment five years ago, it’s still worth 10% less than you paid back then.
You can contact Terry via   <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
Photo courtesy of Syed Abdul Khaliq/Flickr/<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/" target="_blank">Creative Commons</a>.
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Gold Coast enters growth phase, but is it really a good place to invest?

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People who stare at graphs on computer screens and never get out of the office are lining up to declare that the national property boom is over.
I’d like to declare that we haven’t had a national property boom - but one is about to start.
Here’s what I mean. The only price boom so far has been in Sydney. A national property boom is when all the capital cities and many significant regional centres record double-digit annual price growth. We clearly did not have that in 2013: only Sydney among the major cities excelled last year. The last time we had a national property boom was a decade ago.
Those who think that we’ve had a significant national event – and one that has now ended – are making a series of mistakes ...
<ul>
<li>They’re looking at national data and failing to understand that Sydney is elevating all the national figures.</li>
<li>They’re extrapolating the Sydney situation nationwide.</li>
<li>They’re being swayed by monthly aberrations with median prices and other statistics.</li>
<li>They’re over-analysing auction data.</li>
</ul>
In other words, they’re stupid and they’re lazy.
Meanwhile, significant momentum is building in real estate around Australia. Home-buyers remain busy and investors are becoming increasingly active. Building approvals are continuing their upward trend (ignoring the occasional monthly distortion). The latest survey shows a rise in consumer sentiment towards real estate.
Above all else, there is a rising tide of sales activity in most parts of Australia.
Many markets in Sydney and Melbourne still have upward momentum. But, more importantly, other capital cities are stirring. In Brisbane, Adelaide and Hobart, which last year showed little in the way of price growth, have significantly rising sales volumes.
Darwin, which appeared to taper off in 2013, sparked back to life late in the year and early in 2014. Perth, which did well in late 2012 and early 2013, still has many markets with growing sales activity.
There is also a push happening in regional Australia. Sydney’s growth has rippled out to nearby regional cities, such as Gosford, Newcastle and Wollongong. There are also busy markets in Dubbo, Tamworth, Wagga Wagga, Goulburn, Albury, Tweed Heads, Port Macquarie and Coffs Harbour.
Perhaps the greatest centre of <a href="/news/qld/regional-queensland-back-on-the-growth-path-with-sustained-momentum">strongly rising regional markets is Queensland</a>. Cairns, the Sunshine Coast, the Gold Coast, Hervey Bay, Townsville and Toowoomba all have a major head of steam.
There are few major population centres in <a href="/news/sa/adelaide-is-the-standout-market-and-opportunity-for-investors">South Australia outside Adelaide</a>, but two of them are ascendant markets: Mount Gambier and Port Lincoln. A number of markets in Western Australia, notably south of Perth, are sparking to life, including those in Mandurah, Bunbury and Busselton.
My conclusion is that rumours of the death of the Australian property boom have been greatly exaggerated. In many ways, it’s just in its infancy.
You can contact Terry via  <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
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The property boom isn't over - it's only just beginning

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Just over a year ago I started pushing an argument for investment in Queensland regional centres <a href="/expert-insights/buying/change-is-the-only-constant-in-real-estate-terry-ryder">like Cairns, the Sunshine Coast and Hervey Bay</a>.
It seemed like a big call because those locations – and others with similar CVs – had been poor performers in the previous three, four or five years.
But with hotspotting the future is the most important thing and the past is often irrelevant – because, in real estate, things change.
Cairns, the Sunshine Coast and Hervey Bay had several things in common. They had struggled in recent times because their economies were dependent largely on tourism, which is volatile at the best of times and had been through a rough patch. Their property markets had suffered badly from oversupply and prices had gone backwards.
But it was apparent in the early part of 2013 that important changes were happening. The previous surpluses had been largely soaked up. Tourism was improving. Local councils were working hard to diversify their local economies and find ways to attract new business.
And, most importantly, big money was being directed into significant new infrastructure. Growth was on the way back to these coastal cities.
The latest quarterly Market Monitor from the Real Estate Institute of Queensland confirms that these locations, and a couple of other coastal cities, are back on the growth path.
In the March quarter the median house price for Cairns rose 5.6%, the Fraser Coast (Hervey Bay) was up 3% and the Sunshine Coast rose 2%. Other growth was recorded in Rockhampton (3%), Townsville (2%) and the Gold Coast (4%).
As I have often pointed out, median prices can be a dodgy way to gauge markets. But when all data is pointing in the same direction, you can start to believe it. Particularly when other research arrives at the same conclusion.
That other research is our charting of sales volumes, which show that many <a href="/expert-insights/investing/forget-the-gold-coast-its-regional-queensland-leading-the-charge">Queensland regional markets have strong forward momentum</a>, headed by Cairns, the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast, and followed by Hervey Bay and Townsville.
Another Queensland regional market that’s had my vote in recent years <a href="/expert-insights/buying/regional-hotspot-toowoomba-shows-great-investor-potential">is the inland city of Toowoomba</a>, and this is another location moving in a positive direction.
In many ways, Toowoomba has been the success story of Queensland real estate in recent times. Market Monitor published data on the percentage of recent sales which made a profit and Toowoomba led the state for houses with a 95% success rate, ahead of Brisbane at 95% and Rockhampton on 87%. It also led the field for units, with 92% of sales making a profit.
Toowoomba also has a low vacancy rate, at 1.4%, is the fastest-selling region in terms of average days on the market and recorded an 8.2% rise in its median house price over the year to the end of March, with the unit median up 6%.
These regional Queensland cities are poised for a sustained period of growth, boosted by population growth, growing economies and, above all, infrastructure spending.
You can contact Terry via   <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
Photo of Hervey Bay courtesy of Greg Schecter/Flickr/<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/" target="_blank">Creative Commons</a>.
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Regional Queensland back on the growth path with sustained momentum

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The standout market for me at the moment is Adelaide.
The South Australian capital has more forward momentum than most of the capital cities. Given that this has not yet translated into major price growth, it represents an opportunity for investors.
Adelaide is the only capital city which ended 2013 with sales volumes rising significantly and carried that into the early part of 2014. Some of our cities peaked, in terms of sales activity, in early or mid 2013. Some ended 2013 strongly but made a lukewarm start to 2014.
But SA is really just beginning its run.
Sales volumes are now 25% higher than they were at the start of 2013. Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Australian Property Monitor for the March quarter showed some movement in prices, but nothing substantial – around 1% for the quarter, with annual median price growth hovering around 4%.
The numbers will be larger by the end of the year. Throughout Adelaide there are suburbs with strongly rising sales activity.
What makes Adelaide so attractive for property buyers is that it’s by far the cheapest mainland capital city. You can buy two Adelaide houses for the price of one Sydney house.
The standout area of Adelaide, the one with the most forward momentum and the most compelling growth drivers, is down in the far south of the metropolitan area.
The municipality of Onkaparinga has an array of growth markets and is boosted by significant new transport infrastructure.
The new rail links to <a href="/news">Seaford</a> are now operating, with plans to further extend the line south to service areas like <a href="/news">Aldinga Beach</a> and <a href="/news">Port Willunga</a>.
At the same time, the $500 million upgrade of the Southern Expressway is under way. The two infrastructure projects together are revolutionizing transport links from the south to central Adelaide, a factor that usually supercharges property markets.
This is showing up in the sales figures. Several Onkaparinga suburbs are moving forward strongly, including Aldinga Beach, <a href="/news">Flagstaff Hill</a>, <a href="/news">Happy Valley</a>, <a href="/news">Huntfield Heights</a>, <a href="/news">Woodcroft</a>, <a href="/news">Aberfoyle Park</a>, <a href="/news">Christies Beach</a>, <a href="/news">Christie Downs</a>, <a href="/news">Port Noarlunga South</a>, Seaford and <a href="/news">Seaford Rise</a>.
Other areas of Adelaide with plenty of forward-moving markets include the municipalities of Campbelltown (a cluster of inner north-east suburbs, mostly with median house prices in the $400,000s), Holdfast Bay (bayside area including <a href="/news">Glenelg</a>) and <a href="/news">Salisbury</a> (lower end northern suburbs, with median prices mostly in the $200,000s).
There’s also steadily rising activity in the inner-city apartment market.
The hard part is convincing anyone that Adelaide and South Australia are worthy of investment. The state and its capital city lack the growth reputation that draws investors to Queensland and Western Australia. 
Even South Australians are reluctant to invest in Adelaide. Now would be a good time for an attitude adjustment.
You can contact Terry via  <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
Photo courtesy of Doug Barber/ <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/" target="_blank">Creative Commons</a>.
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Adelaide is the standout market and opportunity for investors

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The nature of Australian media makes its difficult to have a genuine debate on any subject and real estate is no different.
This is particularly so for print media, where desperate attempts to stave off the inevitable (death) leads to more and more extravagant treatment of story lines that contradict most of the available research evidence (e.g. <a href="/expert-insights/investing/the-problem-with-first-home-buyers-isnt-affordability-its-expectations">the mythical affordability crisis</a>).
We’ve now had three clear instances in the past eight months of publicity junkies declaring “the property boom is over”, each time based on one month’s median price figures (dodgy at the best of times) from one unreliable source, only to have the notion controverted a month or so later by another more buoyant set of monthly figures.
Newspapers have been only too happy to regurgitate the press releases declaring the market dead, then re-born, then definitely dead, then miraculously resuscitated, then really truly absolutely dead, this time we really mean it.
If we can believe the headlines, the market peaked in October, then surged again, then peaked in February, then surged again, and more recently peaked yet again in May.
In the past week, individuals and organisations have clambered to be the first to declare, one more time: “The property boom is over.”
The first question that arises is: Which boom are they speaking of? Although most of the “I was the first to say it’s over” commentators refer to a thing they call “the national property market”, I’m quite sure they’re thinking of Sydney and extrapolating that situation across the country.
This must be so, because Sydney is the only major centre in Australia with exceptional growth figures. Nowhere else is booming, although there are other places with forward momentum.
The second question is: What does that mean, the property boom is over? Does that mean markets have ground to a halt? Does that mean prices have stopped rising? That people have stopped buying?
If that’s what these “publicity addicts” mean, then they’re clearly wrong.
I think we’re in similar territory to mid-2013, when people declared “the mining boom is over” at a time when projects worth over $250 billion were under construction. Then, as now, the declaration had little to do intelligent debate – it was nothing more than a desire to generate a headline.
There’s all sorts of evidence that makes nonsense of the idea that real estate markets are grinding to a halt, in Sydney and elsewhere. There is, for example, the evidence that sales volumes in the March quarter were <a href="/expert-insights/buying/march-quarter-strongest-for-house-sales-in-five-years">the highest for any March quarter in the past five years</a>.
There are the various arguments that have contributed to the BIS Shrapnel conclusion <a href="/expert-insights/buying/sydney-slowdown-fears-premature-15-unit-growth-tipped-over-next-two-years-bis-shrapnel">that Sydney will continue to show growth for the next couple of years</a>. This concurs with my own analysis of sales activity, which shows there is still a lot of momentum in markets across Sydney (keeping in mind that sales volumes are a far better barometer than median prices, which mislead more than they inform).
I’ve just finished analysing, suburb-by-suburb, sales activity in Perth for an update of our Price Predictor Index and there remains considerable momentum in this market as well. The current market cycle is far from over in Perth. There’s no doubt sales volumes generally are not rising at the rate they were in early/mid 2013, but sales levels remain elevated across Perth.
The same exercise has confirmed a steady improvement in Tasmanian markets, with suburbs in both Hobart and Launceston on the improve.
For these markets and elsewhere, it’s way too early to declare the end of anything. 
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Terry Ryder

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