Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Terry Ryder

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Real estate would be a delight for investors, were it not for the real estate “industry”.
There are times when the industry appears to exist only to mislead consumers into taking action not in their best interests.
Consumers’ best interests are subverted by industry vested interests.
There are myriad examples. Here’s one. There’s a company that makes it money marketing property in specific locations. But the principal markets himself as a mentor. Someone who guides investors on how to buy the best properties in the best locations.
A recent promo advised consumers on the best places to buy for high yields. By the purest of coincidences, the “top three picks” in Australia to buy for positive cash-flow were all places where the company is marketing product.
They included the company’s specialty area, the Pilbara region of Western Australia. South Hedland and Karratha were recommended as the best places in the nation to buy.
Here’s the pitch from the “mentor”:
“I’m a big believer in investing for cash flow and I’m always keeping an eye on which locations around the country are performing well in this area. Knowing how to locate these is vital if you want to find positive cash flow properties in Australia.
“I have some great strategies for how to locate high yield investment properties, but for now I want to share with you my top three property picks.
“There are plenty of towns where investors are achieving higher yields than those that I suggest. However, I have greater confidence in the long term outlook for the ones I’ve featured in my blog.”
He then suggests areas in which his company is a major marketer of off the plan apartments and other properties.
Here’s the reality for Port Hedland/South Hedland and Karratha. Both markets are in decline but remain outrageously overpriced.
The median house price for <a href="/news">Port Hedland</a> was $1.2 million, but has dropped 17% in 12 months and is now down to $970,000 - still way too high for investors to consider.
Rents have declined a lot so, despite the price drop, yields are typically 8%. In the boom times they were commonly 12%. Vacancies have been around 6% since late in 2012 and this market is still falling, with discounting of about 11%, according to Australian Property Monitors.
<blockquote>
Here’s the reality for Port Hedland/South Hedland and Karratha. Both markets are in decline but remain outrageously overpriced.
</blockquote>
Nearby South Hedland is also in rapid decline, with the median house price down 6% and the median unit price down 14% in the past year. The marketing company says yields from 9% to 12% are typical, but APM says the median yields is 7.8% for houses and 7.5% for units. It takes six months to sell on average, with discounting around 12%.
It’s even uglier in <a href="/news">Karratha</a>, with price decline steeper, yields lower, discounting higher and time on market longer.
In the Karratha suburb of <a href="/news">Nickol</a>, the median house price has dropped 17% in 12 months. That includes 5% in the most recent quarter, so the market is still falling. The last time there was any price growth was 2010, with the market sagging an average 12% per year for the past three years.
Discounting is around 13% and it takes five months to sell the average Nickol property. In nearby <a href="/news">Pegs Creek</a>, it takes seven months to sell.
Typical yields are claimed by the marketing company to be 8-10%, but APM indicates 6-7%, amid 6% vacancies.
Keep in mind that the mentor says these are not just good places to buy, but the best places to buy in Australia. Mentors like this you don’t need.
To provide a further feel for how this organisation pitches to consumers, here’s what is claimed to be a testimonial from a “seminar attendee” …
“I spent an evening at (name of presenter)’s seminar and all I have to say is: this guy delivers. It was a supersonic combo of strategic investment insights and wealth-building how-to’s from people who walk the talk. Incredible speakers, killer content and amazing connections, all brought together in one jam-packed evening. They clearly have a talent for creating a valuable, education, high-energy experience.”
The chances of a genuine customer writing such a tribute are zero. A “supersonic combo”? Who talks like that?
You will note they claimed it came from a “seminar attendee”, which was probably a team member or possibly the seminar presenter himself. Technically, it’s not untrue.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
Image courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Port Hedland and Karratha "the best places to buy"? Don't get roped into that one

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What are we to believe about the state of the mythical national property boom?
We were told it was over, based on the figures for May, but now the data for June suggests it’s still very much still on.
When RP Data rushed out its findings for May, commentators competed to be the first to declare “the boom is over”. It didn’t seem to bother any of them that the boom had been declared to be finished twice before, only to be contradicted by subsequent data from the same source.
Now it’s happened again. June figures show a 1.4% index rise for the combined capital cities. Annualised, that equates to double-digit growth - if you believe the figures.
I’ve been scouring media sources over the past week to read the apologies from all those self-proclaimed analysts who misled the Australian public by declaring the death of something that appears very much alive.
To date, no apology has been forthcoming.
Do they all deem it of no consequence that they grossly misinformed consumers about a matter of considerable importance? Is it just a game they play in the pursuit of publicity? Are they really that shallow and lacking in ethical substance? Apparently so.
In reality, none of these monthly movements in median prices or price indexes mean a damn thing. That is the core message of this latest media fiasco on the state of the mythical property boom.
Monthly movements are meaningless. That is true of house prices, just as it is for retail spending or building approvals or the jobless rate. The graph depicting data on any economic or real estate subject is never smooth. There are always monthly aberrations.
The only thing of any relevance is the longer-term trend.
I’m quite certain most of the people publishing or commenting on real estate data know this to be true. If they do not, they’re incompetent and have no right to put their views into the public arena.
So, why do they do it? Because they don’t care if they misinform and confuse the public, so long as they further the end game - publicity for themselves and their businesses.
They’re shysters, every one of them.
The data for the financial year just ended shows why I term the national property boom “mythical”. The annual figures suggest that only Sydney has had a property boom.
A true national boom is when all - or, at least, most - capital cities plus major regional centres have double-digit price growth.
If we are to believe RP Data, five of the eight capital cities, plus the regions, had annual growth lower than 6% in the 2014 financial year. Only Sydney among the major markets across the nation had double-digit growth.
Brisbane grew 7% and Melbourne about 9%. Solid markets, but not booming ones. Not yet, anyway.
Bogus analysts, including most economists, simply look at the national average figure - 10% in this case - and declare that to mean something: a national boom, or a bubble, and then start looking around for someone to “blame” for runaway house prices across the nation.
The usual suspects are negative gearing, first home buyer grants, foreign investors, property taxes, low interest rates and the equally mythical housing shortage. One commentator recently tied himself in knots trying to construct an argument that other countries’ economic policies were to blame.
The reality is that Sydney’s data has inflated the national figure. The national city average might be 10% but only Sydney has recorded growth that big.
Some of those analysts know no better. They look at a graph on their computer screen, which is the extent of their knowledge of real estate matters, and pontificate about the “national property market”.
Others do know better but are too lazy or dishonest to put together a thoughtful and thorough analysis.
As a result, the great seething mass of misinformation grows larger by the day.
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Latest media fiasco shows exactly why monthly movements are meaningless

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You may be surprised to learn that the greatest place to live in Australia is … wait for it, Canberra!
In another of those pointless exercises in which bureaucrats take delight, the Organisation of Economic Co-operation has developed a global well-being matching tool, which considers factors such as safety, health, services, life expectancy, environment, crime rates and income.
Using this exciting new technology, it has determined that Canberra outranks every other city in Australia as the best place to live out your days.
This being so, you might wonder why Sydney has 4.6 million residents and Canberra 380,000, and why there are eight Australia cities with more people than Canberra. Even Tasmania has more residents than the ACT.
Apparently all those poor saps in Sydney don’t know that Canberra is a superior city. Imagine - four million Australians, living a lie.
But here’s an important thought: despite what the OECD tool says about life expectancy, you don’t live longer in Canberra, it just feels that way.
Do the OECD boffins realise that living in Canberra means having Tony Abbott as a neighbour? Or, even worse, Clive Palmer?
Another relevant question is this: if Canberra’s so damn good, how come it’s the worst-performing property market in capital city Australia?
Every other city is showing at least some forward movement in its property markets, but Australia’s best place to be is going nowhere.
Prices have stagnated at a time of very high growth down the road in inferior Sydney. Canberra rents are going backwards and developers of apartment buildings are having to downsize through lack of buyer interest.
Auction clearance rates are 53% for houses and 36% for apartments.
<a href="/news">Goulburn</a>, not far from Canberra, is showing solid growth, but in the capital there’s little in the way of meaningful growth.
<a href="/news">Gosford</a>, where the federal government plans to send 600 Canberra jobs, apparently oblivious to the OECD’s findings, is booming.
Canberra markets are stalled by uncertainty and nervousness resulting from the federal government’s plans to make big cuts to the public sector workforce.
Canberra has maintained consistent turnover of residential property, quarter by quarter, throughout 2013 and into early 2014. The city seems to churn through 1,250 to 1,300 home sales each quarter with consistency.
But, unlike every other capital city in Australia, it has no suburbs charging forward price-wise.
At the top end of the Canberra market, prices are falling. In upmarket <a href="/news">Yarralumla</a>, the median price has dropped 7% in the past 12 months. In <a href="/news">Griffith</a>, the median price has fallen 12% (but remains above $1 million). Equally swanky <a href="/news">Red Hill</a> has dropped 14% in 12 months.
So, a damn fine place to live, if you don’t mind stiff winters and lousy neighbours, but not a great place to own real estate at the moment.
You can contact Terry via  <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
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Canberra ranked "the best place to live", but it's certainly not the best place to buy

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I suppose you can’t blame them for trying. But you can blame them for the lack of originality and imagination.
People developing a residential estate in Mackay, where the market’s a tad unwell, are trying to pump up business. Their sales pitch? Now is the time to buy!
The market’s bottomed, recovery is just around the corner, so don’t delay or you’ll miss out. Compelling stuff.
First, a reality check on Mackay. A double-whammy has struck in the past 12 months. Demand inspired by the coal industry has fallen away, at a time when developers – always a year or two behind the play – have brought on lots of new supply.
At the end of 2012, residential vacancies were below 2%. In the 18 months since then, they’ve been rising steadily. They’re now 7% and they’re still going up.
A year ago in central <a href="/news">Mackay</a>, the median house price was a tick under $400,000, after 10% growth in the preceding 12 months, and rents were strong, providing a median yield of 6.5%.
Fast-forward 12 months and the median price is down to $355,000. Rents have fallen also and the median yield has reduced to 5.9% (Australian Property Monitors figures). It takes six months to sell a house, on average, and 13% is the typical discount to make a sale.
Around other parts of the Mackay market, it’s a similar scenario: prices down as much as 10% in the past 12 months, including a significant reduction in the past three months.
The clear message is: one, the Mackay market is down, and two, it’s still falling. This is definitely not the time to buy.
The bottom line is, this should not be happening. Mackay is a solid citizen of regional Queensland. It has lots going for it, including an export port, a strong agricultural sector and plenty of tourism. Even with the local resources sector in decline, its market would normally remain steady.
But developers did what they always do – they piled into what appeared to be a boom market and built too much too late. In their inimitable fashion, they’ve plucked defeat from the jaws of victory.
Do these people ever do any research? Do they notice that they’re not the only people trying to exploit a boom market?
It’s as if each operates in an isolated bubble and eventually wakes up, with: "Oh my god, I didn’t notice all those other projects being built at the same time."
So here we have one group putting out a press release, trying to convince people they should dash out and buy a home, preferably in their estate, which I gather is not excelling at the moment.
They say the current oversupply means great deals for buyers. And it says the market is tipped to recover in the second quarter of 2015.
So, let’s see what they’re saying. We’ve just ended the second quarter of 2014, and “property valuation experts” tip a recovery in the second quarter of 2015, so now is the time to buy?
I would have thought that, by this line of logic, early next year would be the time to buy. Right now, the market is still falling.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
Photo courtesy of eTravel Guide/<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/" target="_blank">Creative Commons</a>.
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Mackay market is down and it’s still falling

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Recent reports from economic forecaster BIS Shrapnel have brought some strong counter arguments to a couple of real estate’s biggest furphies.
It has disputed claims that “the boom is over” and it has presented views which contradict the general party line from the property industry that there’s a chronic housing shortage.
The “boom is over” stories were prompted primarily by figures for May from RP Data, which indicated some price decline – the third time in the past eight months that the same source has prompted claims of impending downturn, only to be submerged by later figures showing further growth.
What odds that the June figures will show resurgence, thereby rendering those earlier predictions redundant?
As Louis Christopher of SQM Research commented recently, people and organisations making outlandish claims for publicity reasons generally rely on “the community’s collective amnesia” to cover their tracks.
BIS Shrapnel said it believed the<a href="/expert-insights/buying/sydney-slowdown-fears-premature-15-unit-growth-tipped-over-next-two-years-bis-shrapnel"> “boom is over” claims to be rather premature for Sydney</a>, with the apartment market in particularly to remain strong.
The forecaster’s latest report, looking at price growth up to 2017, sees price growth eventually tapering off in some cities, with an oversupply of dwellings a major contributor.
That’s a useful observation, in the light of constant claims from the building and development sector about a “chronic housing shortage crisis”.
Claims from political entities like the Housing Industry Association and the Urban Development Institute of Australia about a serious shortage, never supported by any definitive data, are always followed in the next breath by a wish list of actions demanded from government, all of them highly beneficial to builders and developers.
It’s easy to believe that some organisation concoct convenient “research” to support an argument that governments need to make life cosy for developers – release lots of land, speed up approvals, reduce infrastructure charges and eliminate unwelcome taxes – all motivated, you understand, by a desire to provide cheap homes to needy people.
As I’ve often remarked, the biggest noise in real estate is the voice of vested interest.
Recently the UDIA in NSW was shallow enough to urge government not to provide assistance to first home buyers because it would unleash unsustainable demand that the industry couldn’t meet because of the chronic shortage.
The UDIA wants us to believe its members are standing on the sidelines, desperate to provide new homes to a clamouring public, but rendered impotent because developers don’t own any land on which to build, because none is available. It’s laughable but that’s the line they keep running.
The evidence is that the biggest issue in real estate is not shortage, but the opposite.
Many of our inner-city markets have oversupplies of apartments, led by Melbourne where the situation is serious and destined to get worse. There are legitimate concerns about Brisbane, Canberra, Perth and Darwin.
Sydney doesn’t have an apartment oversupply yet, but within two to three years it’s likely to have a big one.
Most of the boom markets which sprung up around resources related towns and regional cities are now in marked decline, caused by over-building by developers. In that category are Gladstone, Mackay, Emerald, the Bowen Basin coal towns, several Surat Basin towns, the Hunter region of NSW and several mining towns in Western Australia.
The Gold Coast has just emerged from five terrible years caused by oversupply and now, just as growth returns, <a href="/expert-insights/investing/gold-coast-enters-growth-phase-but-is-it-really-a-good-place-to-invest">is working hard on generating the next big apartment glut</a>.
The BIS Shrapnel report which forecasts price movements in major city markets over the next three years, sees Melbourne prices eventually going backwards, largely because of the oversupply I mentioned earlier.
It sees similar problems in other major cities, although not so much for Sydney and Brisbane.
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
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Biggest issue in real estate is not shortage - it's the opposite

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There’s no doubt the Gold Coast residential market is entering a growth phase. After five bad years, in which prices went backwards, the Gold Coast is moving again.
Sales activity is rising strongly across the region and the latest figures from the Real Estate Institute of Queensland suggest prices are moving in the right direction.
But we remain opposed to investment in this market.
Here’s an example of why. On 12 June, the Gold Coast Bulletin published a news article under this headline: '104-storey Southport tower poised to steal Q1 crown of Southern Hemisphere’s tallest residential high rise'.
Apparently a three-tower complex called Imperial City is planned for Southport. The building will be 75, 85 and 104 storeys, dwarfing the 78-storey Q1 which is currently tallest high-rise on the Gold Coast, as well as in Australia and Southern Hemisphere.
Imperial City will contain 2,200 apartments, as well as 200 student rooms and a 200-room hotel.
The Gold Coast Bulletin reported: 
"The project has been welcomed by city leaders, with area councillor Dawn ­Crichlow declaring Imperial City would be the jewel in Southport’s development crown. “This is one of a range of Southport developments before the council at the moment and the number, as well as the size of this project, are a real show of faith,” she said.
"Southport MP and Assistant Planning Minister Rob Molhoek said he was “incredibly excited” by the proposal. “There are more than 17 major development approvals in line for Southport right now which is a testament to the fact that the CBD is on its way back to its former glory,” he said
“If this gets approved and built it would be a symbol of everything we are trying to achieve right now.”
That pretty much sums it up. This latest monument to a developer’s ego is seen on the Gold Coast as “a symbol of everything we are trying to achieve”.
Presumably Molhoek and Crichlow like oversupply and falling property values. The mentality of civic leaders and business people on the Gold Coast never seems to change. The place lurches from boom to bust, relentlessly and repeatedly, because this is how they think. They see the Gold Coast as a theme park for foreign tourists and property speculators, rather than as a city with families who needs services and jobs. If it reaches for the sky, it has to be good.
Just when the Gold Coast has soaked up its surplus of apartments, a process that took five agonising years, its developers and politicians are sowing the seeds of the next calamitous glut. The Imperial City monstrosity is one of many mega proposals for the glitter strip. New ones are announced weekly.
If you must buy on the Gold Coast, avoid the highrise. Buy houses in an inland suburb.
These are the areas of the Gold Coast market that really stand out in the research I’ve just completed for The Price Predictor Index. 
Rising markets include <a href="/news">Nerang</a>, <a href="/news">Mudgeeraba</a>, <a href="/news">Coombabah</a>, <a href="/news">Arundel</a>, <a href="/news">Ashmore</a>, <a href="/news">Carrara</a>, <a href="/news">Coomera </a>and <a href="/news">Varsity Lakes</a> – all housing markets inland, away from the skyscraper insanity.
Lest you forget, the latest edition of the REIQ’s quarterly report reminds us that if you bought the typical Surfers Paradise apartment five years ago, it’s still worth 10% less than you paid back then.
You can contact Terry via   <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
Photo courtesy of Syed Abdul Khaliq/Flickr/<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/" target="_blank">Creative Commons</a>.
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Gold Coast enters growth phase, but is it really a good place to invest?

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People who stare at graphs on computer screens and never get out of the office are lining up to declare that the national property boom is over.
I’d like to declare that we haven’t had a national property boom - but one is about to start.
Here’s what I mean. The only price boom so far has been in Sydney. A national property boom is when all the capital cities and many significant regional centres record double-digit annual price growth. We clearly did not have that in 2013: only Sydney among the major cities excelled last year. The last time we had a national property boom was a decade ago.
Those who think that we’ve had a significant national event – and one that has now ended – are making a series of mistakes ...
<ul>
<li>They’re looking at national data and failing to understand that Sydney is elevating all the national figures.</li>
<li>They’re extrapolating the Sydney situation nationwide.</li>
<li>They’re being swayed by monthly aberrations with median prices and other statistics.</li>
<li>They’re over-analysing auction data.</li>
</ul>
In other words, they’re stupid and they’re lazy.
Meanwhile, significant momentum is building in real estate around Australia. Home-buyers remain busy and investors are becoming increasingly active. Building approvals are continuing their upward trend (ignoring the occasional monthly distortion). The latest survey shows a rise in consumer sentiment towards real estate.
Above all else, there is a rising tide of sales activity in most parts of Australia.
Many markets in Sydney and Melbourne still have upward momentum. But, more importantly, other capital cities are stirring. In Brisbane, Adelaide and Hobart, which last year showed little in the way of price growth, have significantly rising sales volumes.
Darwin, which appeared to taper off in 2013, sparked back to life late in the year and early in 2014. Perth, which did well in late 2012 and early 2013, still has many markets with growing sales activity.
There is also a push happening in regional Australia. Sydney’s growth has rippled out to nearby regional cities, such as Gosford, Newcastle and Wollongong. There are also busy markets in Dubbo, Tamworth, Wagga Wagga, Goulburn, Albury, Tweed Heads, Port Macquarie and Coffs Harbour.
Perhaps the greatest centre of <a href="/news/qld/regional-queensland-back-on-the-growth-path-with-sustained-momentum">strongly rising regional markets is Queensland</a>. Cairns, the Sunshine Coast, the Gold Coast, Hervey Bay, Townsville and Toowoomba all have a major head of steam.
There are few major population centres in <a href="/news/sa/adelaide-is-the-standout-market-and-opportunity-for-investors">South Australia outside Adelaide</a>, but two of them are ascendant markets: Mount Gambier and Port Lincoln. A number of markets in Western Australia, notably south of Perth, are sparking to life, including those in Mandurah, Bunbury and Busselton.
My conclusion is that rumours of the death of the Australian property boom have been greatly exaggerated. In many ways, it’s just in its infancy.
You can contact Terry via  <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
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The property boom isn't over - it's only just beginning

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Just over a year ago I started pushing an argument for investment in Queensland regional centres <a href="/expert-insights/buying/change-is-the-only-constant-in-real-estate-terry-ryder">like Cairns, the Sunshine Coast and Hervey Bay</a>.
It seemed like a big call because those locations – and others with similar CVs – had been poor performers in the previous three, four or five years.
But with hotspotting the future is the most important thing and the past is often irrelevant – because, in real estate, things change.
Cairns, the Sunshine Coast and Hervey Bay had several things in common. They had struggled in recent times because their economies were dependent largely on tourism, which is volatile at the best of times and had been through a rough patch. Their property markets had suffered badly from oversupply and prices had gone backwards.
But it was apparent in the early part of 2013 that important changes were happening. The previous surpluses had been largely soaked up. Tourism was improving. Local councils were working hard to diversify their local economies and find ways to attract new business.
And, most importantly, big money was being directed into significant new infrastructure. Growth was on the way back to these coastal cities.
The latest quarterly Market Monitor from the Real Estate Institute of Queensland confirms that these locations, and a couple of other coastal cities, are back on the growth path.
In the March quarter the median house price for Cairns rose 5.6%, the Fraser Coast (Hervey Bay) was up 3% and the Sunshine Coast rose 2%. Other growth was recorded in Rockhampton (3%), Townsville (2%) and the Gold Coast (4%).
As I have often pointed out, median prices can be a dodgy way to gauge markets. But when all data is pointing in the same direction, you can start to believe it. Particularly when other research arrives at the same conclusion.
That other research is our charting of sales volumes, which show that many <a href="/expert-insights/investing/forget-the-gold-coast-its-regional-queensland-leading-the-charge">Queensland regional markets have strong forward momentum</a>, headed by Cairns, the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast, and followed by Hervey Bay and Townsville.
Another Queensland regional market that’s had my vote in recent years <a href="/expert-insights/buying/regional-hotspot-toowoomba-shows-great-investor-potential">is the inland city of Toowoomba</a>, and this is another location moving in a positive direction.
In many ways, Toowoomba has been the success story of Queensland real estate in recent times. Market Monitor published data on the percentage of recent sales which made a profit and Toowoomba led the state for houses with a 95% success rate, ahead of Brisbane at 95% and Rockhampton on 87%. It also led the field for units, with 92% of sales making a profit.
Toowoomba also has a low vacancy rate, at 1.4%, is the fastest-selling region in terms of average days on the market and recorded an 8.2% rise in its median house price over the year to the end of March, with the unit median up 6%.
These regional Queensland cities are poised for a sustained period of growth, boosted by population growth, growing economies and, above all, infrastructure spending.
You can contact Terry via   <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
Photo of Hervey Bay courtesy of Greg Schecter/Flickr/<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/" target="_blank">Creative Commons</a>.
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Regional Queensland back on the growth path with sustained momentum

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The standout market for me at the moment is Adelaide.
The South Australian capital has more forward momentum than most of the capital cities. Given that this has not yet translated into major price growth, it represents an opportunity for investors.
Adelaide is the only capital city which ended 2013 with sales volumes rising significantly and carried that into the early part of 2014. Some of our cities peaked, in terms of sales activity, in early or mid 2013. Some ended 2013 strongly but made a lukewarm start to 2014.
But SA is really just beginning its run.
Sales volumes are now 25% higher than they were at the start of 2013. Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Australian Property Monitor for the March quarter showed some movement in prices, but nothing substantial – around 1% for the quarter, with annual median price growth hovering around 4%.
The numbers will be larger by the end of the year. Throughout Adelaide there are suburbs with strongly rising sales activity.
What makes Adelaide so attractive for property buyers is that it’s by far the cheapest mainland capital city. You can buy two Adelaide houses for the price of one Sydney house.
The standout area of Adelaide, the one with the most forward momentum and the most compelling growth drivers, is down in the far south of the metropolitan area.
The municipality of Onkaparinga has an array of growth markets and is boosted by significant new transport infrastructure.
The new rail links to <a href="/news">Seaford</a> are now operating, with plans to further extend the line south to service areas like <a href="/news">Aldinga Beach</a> and <a href="/news">Port Willunga</a>.
At the same time, the $500 million upgrade of the Southern Expressway is under way. The two infrastructure projects together are revolutionizing transport links from the south to central Adelaide, a factor that usually supercharges property markets.
This is showing up in the sales figures. Several Onkaparinga suburbs are moving forward strongly, including Aldinga Beach, <a href="/news">Flagstaff Hill</a>, <a href="/news">Happy Valley</a>, <a href="/news">Huntfield Heights</a>, <a href="/news">Woodcroft</a>, <a href="/news">Aberfoyle Park</a>, <a href="/news">Christies Beach</a>, <a href="/news">Christie Downs</a>, <a href="/news">Port Noarlunga South</a>, Seaford and <a href="/news">Seaford Rise</a>.
Other areas of Adelaide with plenty of forward-moving markets include the municipalities of Campbelltown (a cluster of inner north-east suburbs, mostly with median house prices in the $400,000s), Holdfast Bay (bayside area including <a href="/news">Glenelg</a>) and <a href="/news">Salisbury</a> (lower end northern suburbs, with median prices mostly in the $200,000s).
There’s also steadily rising activity in the inner-city apartment market.
The hard part is convincing anyone that Adelaide and South Australia are worthy of investment. The state and its capital city lack the growth reputation that draws investors to Queensland and Western Australia. 
Even South Australians are reluctant to invest in Adelaide. Now would be a good time for an attitude adjustment.
You can contact Terry via  <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
Photo courtesy of Doug Barber/ <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/" target="_blank">Creative Commons</a>.
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Adelaide is the standout market and opportunity for investors

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The nature of Australian media makes its difficult to have a genuine debate on any subject and real estate is no different.
This is particularly so for print media, where desperate attempts to stave off the inevitable (death) leads to more and more extravagant treatment of story lines that contradict most of the available research evidence (e.g. <a href="/expert-insights/investing/the-problem-with-first-home-buyers-isnt-affordability-its-expectations">the mythical affordability crisis</a>).
We’ve now had three clear instances in the past eight months of publicity junkies declaring “the property boom is over”, each time based on one month’s median price figures (dodgy at the best of times) from one unreliable source, only to have the notion controverted a month or so later by another more buoyant set of monthly figures.
Newspapers have been only too happy to regurgitate the press releases declaring the market dead, then re-born, then definitely dead, then miraculously resuscitated, then really truly absolutely dead, this time we really mean it.
If we can believe the headlines, the market peaked in October, then surged again, then peaked in February, then surged again, and more recently peaked yet again in May.
In the past week, individuals and organisations have clambered to be the first to declare, one more time: “The property boom is over.”
The first question that arises is: Which boom are they speaking of? Although most of the “I was the first to say it’s over” commentators refer to a thing they call “the national property market”, I’m quite sure they’re thinking of Sydney and extrapolating that situation across the country.
This must be so, because Sydney is the only major centre in Australia with exceptional growth figures. Nowhere else is booming, although there are other places with forward momentum.
The second question is: What does that mean, the property boom is over? Does that mean markets have ground to a halt? Does that mean prices have stopped rising? That people have stopped buying?
If that’s what these “publicity addicts” mean, then they’re clearly wrong.
I think we’re in similar territory to mid-2013, when people declared “the mining boom is over” at a time when projects worth over $250 billion were under construction. Then, as now, the declaration had little to do intelligent debate – it was nothing more than a desire to generate a headline.
There’s all sorts of evidence that makes nonsense of the idea that real estate markets are grinding to a halt, in Sydney and elsewhere. There is, for example, the evidence that sales volumes in the March quarter were <a href="/expert-insights/buying/march-quarter-strongest-for-house-sales-in-five-years">the highest for any March quarter in the past five years</a>.
There are the various arguments that have contributed to the BIS Shrapnel conclusion <a href="/expert-insights/buying/sydney-slowdown-fears-premature-15-unit-growth-tipped-over-next-two-years-bis-shrapnel">that Sydney will continue to show growth for the next couple of years</a>. This concurs with my own analysis of sales activity, which shows there is still a lot of momentum in markets across Sydney (keeping in mind that sales volumes are a far better barometer than median prices, which mislead more than they inform).
I’ve just finished analysing, suburb-by-suburb, sales activity in Perth for an update of our Price Predictor Index and there remains considerable momentum in this market as well. The current market cycle is far from over in Perth. There’s no doubt sales volumes generally are not rising at the rate they were in early/mid 2013, but sales levels remain elevated across Perth.
The same exercise has confirmed a steady improvement in Tasmanian markets, with suburbs in both Hobart and Launceston on the improve.
For these markets and elsewhere, it’s way too early to declare the end of anything. 
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Terry Ryder

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