Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

&nbsp;

Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.

The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.

The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.

The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]

Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.

Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.

Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]

Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.

“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.

“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”

“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.” 
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]

The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.

Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.

The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.

The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]

Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.

“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.

“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”

A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.

That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.

The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]

According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.

Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.

The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.

The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.

That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.

The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]

The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.

“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.

“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”

The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]

Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.

The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.

Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]

Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.

Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.

“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.

He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.

“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.

“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.

Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.

Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.

Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.

The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]

Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more internation and domestic flights.

Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.

Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.

The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.

The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" />

According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”

The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.

The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.

Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.

“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.

The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.

The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" />

The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.

“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.

According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.

“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.

“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”

The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.

Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.

&nbsp;

The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" />

St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.

Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.

The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.

More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.

First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
There are strong linkages between events in the local economy and outcomes in real estate markets.
If a city’s economy is growing and creating jobs, real estate markets will be busy.
Proximity to employment nodes is an important marker to look for, remembering that most of the jobs are in the suburbs, not in the CBDs.
At Hotspotting we’re scouring information sources every day looking for events that indicate buoyancy (or otherwise) in local economies.
If a major new infrastructure project is planned, we want to know about it. If a business is expanding, creating hundreds of extra jobs, that’s worth adding to our database of knowledge. If a company is relocating its business because of a particular dynamic in the new location, that creates a blip on our radar screen.
Here are some examples of what I mean:
Tesla and South Australia
Elon Musk’s Tesla has set up the group’s first Australian battery and electric cars service centre at the Tonsley innovation precinct in Adelaide. 
Heath Walker, senior manager, marketing and communications at Tesla, says: “The facility will help service our growing footprint in the state, including the <a href="https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/worlds-largest-lithium-battery-switched-on-near-jamestown/news-story/2c4992845ce77309d7dad0d48a2d754c">Hornsdale battery system</a> and other Powerwall systems we have there, including one recently installed at the TAFE facility at Tonsley.”
The Federal and State Governments last month announced they will invest in South Australia’s second large-scale Tesla “big battery’’. The 52MWh battery will be connected to the existing Lake Bonney Wind Farm near Millicent in the state’s south-east.
Tesla installed Australia’s first big battery - and currently the world’s largest at 100MWh - at Jamestown, next to the Hornsdale wind farm run by French company Neoen.
In July, Tesla installed residential-scale batteries at 100 Housing SA homes, equipped with solar panels as part of the first phase of a State Government-backed 250 MW virtual power plant. A further 1000 public housing properties will receive the same equipment in the second phase.
Why do we care? Because the South Australian economy is on a growth path and a significant part of the emerging growth is the state’s status as the national leader on alternative energy and Adelaide’s growing reputation as the nation’s leading city for high-tech innovation.
The Tonsley precinct, which has emerged from the ashes of a former Mitsubishi car plant, is a thriving innovation, health and education centre in the Marion LGA, which we rate highly as an emerging hotspot.
Youi and the Sunshine Coast
Insurance company Youi is currently seeking to recruit 120 people for its headquarters on the Sunshine Coast. 
When the $73 million building at Sippy Downs first opened in November 2017, it employed 1,000 people and the company's stated vision was to eventually grow this to 3,000. 
Youi’s decision to locate its national HQ on the Sunshine Coast is indicative of the evolution of this location from tourist resort to regional city.
A lot is changing in the Sunshine Coast economy, much of it inspired by major spending on infrastructure and new business ventures. 
The new medical precinct, based around the $2 billion Sunshine Coast University Hospital, has been a game-changer.  Billions more are being spent on the local airport, key sections of the motorway, the new Maroochydore CBD and many other projects. 
The total list of Sunshine Coast projects is worth over $20 billion and it’s transforming the local economy - and with it the local property market.
Ipswich and the military economy
Any location with a strong military economy has an advantage. Cities with a RAAF Base and/or Army base have a built-in generator of economic activity and jobs, particularly given the current national trend of expansion.
Examples include Newcastle, northern Adelaide, Wagga Wagga and Ipswich in the far south-west of Brisbane.
Ipswich has the Amberley RAAF Base on its doorstep and has a growing number of major businesses servicing the military.
It was announced recently that TAE Aerospace will develop a Turbine Engine Maintenance Facility (TEMF) in the Ipswich suburb of Bundamba to support Australia’s fifth-generation F-35 Joint Strike fighter jets. 
The addition of the F135 engine MRO&amp;U activities will add 15 aerospace technician jobs to its workforce and up to 85 additional jobs as part of the future F-35 Global Support Solution.
Not far away in Wacol, Rheinmetall is building its $170 million Military Vehicle Centre of Excellence to build vehicles for the Australian Army. Watpac has been appointed managing contractor to deliver the facility, which is expected to support 300 jobs, with completion expected in 2020.
The facility will be Rheinmetall's largest presence outside of Germany and will manage the delivery of the initial 211 Boxer combat reconnaissance vehicles under Land 400 Phase 2, and accommodate Rheinmetall's other defence projects.
Also in Wacol, Volvo Group Australia recently opened its new national headquarters at the Metroplex Westgate business park, close to the company’s existing assembly plant.
Around 300 jobs were created during construction of the new headquarters and around 195 people will now work there, along with 530 at the nearby factory.
For these and many other reasons, I’m bullish about the prospects for real estate growth in Ipswich, which has many affordable suburbs and strong infrastructure, as well as many big jobs nodes. Businesses base themselves there because the land is cheap and the transport links are good.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Military economy benefiting Ipswich property investors: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Over the weekend I spoke to crowds of people with their heads crammed full of media misinformation.
The number one point of discussion was the general perception that prices are falling across Australia, thanks to simplistic analysis and inaccurate headlines.
In reality, the latest monthly price report from CoreLogic (the source of most articles and headlines on prices) tells us that there are 14 major market jurisdictions across Australia (eight capital cities and six state regional areas) – and nine of the 14 have price levels higher than last year.
I see plenty of potential for buyers to find locations where prices are rising or are on the cusp of a growth phase.
How do you find them? Here are four markers that provides clues to future price growth …
1 The underlying local economy is rising
In 2011 when the government changed in New South Wales, the state ranked as one of the weakest economies in the nation, according to CommSec’s State of the States report.
But with proactive governance and increased spending on infrastructure, NSW rose steadily up the rankings to eventually become the nation’s strongest economy. Out of that came the Sydney property boom.
There was a similar story in Tasmania. Traditionally Tasmania has ranked as our weakest economy but, following a major change of state government in 2014, the state rose up the national rankings, eventually reaching its current position of No.4, ahead of Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia.
The marked improvement in the state economy gave rise to the growth in the Hobart property market, now the strongest among the capital cities for price growth.
The linkages between capital city property markets and the underlying state economy are undeniably strong.
So where does this marker point us for the next growth markets among the capital cities?
There are definite signs of improvement in the economies of Western Australia, South Australia and Queensland.
This, along with other indicators, suggests better growth in the property markets in Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane.
2 Demand has risen but prices haven’t moved much - yet
Three capital cities stand out for this reason: Perth, Canberra and Adelaide.
There has been significant uplift in sales activity in Perth, as the underlying state economy improves.
Canberra sales activity is rising steadily also, and Adelaide currently has one of the most active markets among the capital cities.
When demand rises, prices tend to follow. One major forecaster has tipped Canberra to lead on price growth in the next 2-3 years. I think the national capital will definitely be a contender, but so will Perth and Adelaide.
3 Rents have risen strongly, but prices haven’t moved much - yet
Before Sydney prices started to rise, we saw a couple of years of strong growth in residential rentals. Before house prices started to move in Hobart, it was noticeable that vacancies were extremely low and that rents were rising. Prices followed.
So where are those conditions most evident right now in capital city Australia? The clear answer is Canberra, where vacancies are below 1% and residential rents have risen strongly in the past year or so, according to SQM Research data.
We’re also observing significant improvement in the Perth rental market, with vacancies declining and leasing activity rising.
4 Prices overall haven’t moved much, but the Top End has had strong growth
Sydney’s growth cycle started at the Top End and rippled out over time. In Melbourne, the up-cycle began in the millionaire suburbs and gravitated from there to the middle ring and more recently to the outer ring suburbs.
This is a common pattern in property cycles. And right now there are three capital cities where the million-dollar suburbs have had double-digit price growth in the past year, but the market overall has not had big price growth.
Those three cities are Perth, Adelaide and Canberra.
Where do all these markers point us?
Put all those indicators together and they point to strong price growth in the near future in three capital cities:
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1">Canberra: the underlying economy ranks third in the nation, it has the highest average incomes and lowest unemployment, vacancies are low and the rental growth is the highest in the nation, sales activity (demand) is increasing and the Top End prices have risen strongly.</li>
<li class="li1">Adelaide: the state economy is improving and has big growth drivers in the system, vacancies are below average, demand is rising, yields are strong and Top End prices have risen at above-average rates.</li>
<li class="li1">Perth: the state economy is recovering, vacancies are falling, rental activity is rising, sales activity is steadily improving and Top End prices have recorded double-digit annual growth in many of the millionaire suburbs.</li>
</ul>
Brisbane will get on board if the signals of an improving state economy and the promise of big spending on infrastructure actually come to pass.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Four key markers for property investors of future price growth

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After several years of investors achieving easy growth in our two biggest cities, the national real estate landscape has changed. 
Investors need to look elsewhere to find the upwardly-mobile markets, and it’s not so easy to find them because mainstream media is writing about the Sydney-Melbourne downturn and generally ignoring the rising markets in other parts of the nation.
Hotspotting’s new Top 10 Best Buys reports highlights the new growth markets, which are occurring in our smaller cities and the regions.
Here are five possibilities, many of them places you might not have thought of …
Belconnen District, ACT
I’ve often referred to Canberra as the Goldilocks of Australian real estate - not too hot, not too cold, just right. It continues to show a high level of consistency, especially with sales activity. 
But, amid that familiar consistency, there is evidence of recent uplift. The Winter 2018 survey for The Price Predictor Index identifies an increasing number of Canberra suburbs with growth trajectories. 
That quarterly survey also shows that the Belconnen District is the clear market leader in Canberra, by a considerable margin. It has seven rising suburbs – including Bruce, Florey, Flynn, Holt and Macgregor - and others with steady sales performance.
The strong sales data reflects other statistics depicting a strong Canberra market. Vacancies remain below 1 percent (only Hobart has lower vacancies among the capital cities), rents are rising strongly and there is evidence of solid price growth, notably in the Top End suburbs with median prices above $1 million.
Some forecasters predict Canberra will lead the capital cities on price increases in the next few years, with Belconnen suburbs likely to be at the forefront of the growth.
Port Adelaide precinct, South Australia
Port Adelaide may have missed out on the AFL finals, but its real estate market looks like a winner.
The Port Adelaide Enfield LGA is now one of the busiest markets in the SA capital, with a number of its suburbs attracting rising demand.
Defence Force contracts totalling $89 billion and other government initiatives are set to launch Port Adelaide into a new stratosphere.
The Osborne Naval Shipyard is undergoing a $535 million upgrade to accommodate the building of 40 new Defence craft; 500 public servants are being moved into the precinct; and a new rail spur will link the Port’s commercial centre and the Dock One residential precinct to the Adelaide CBD.
These and several smaller projects are creating much-needed jobs, turning historic Port Adelaide into a thriving residential, commercial and tourist destination.
Bendigo, Victoria
Bendigo (pictured top) has long been one of Victoria’s key regional centres, with growth thanks to its steady local economy, proximity to Melbourne and good transport links to the capital – especially now the $5 billion Regional Rail Link has been completed.
Its economic prospects have improved with the $630 million re-development of Bendigo’s hospital, private sector plans to develop the city’s first master-planned residential community, and the awarding of a $1.3 billion Defence contract to a Bendigo-based business. 
Bendigo benefits economically from a number of major companies which are based locally but perform nationally – including Thales, the company that received the Defence contract recently.
It has had steady long-term price growth (averaging around 5% per year) in its housing market but it remains affordable, with solid rental yields available for investors (most suburbs have median yields between 4.5 and 5.5 percent). 
And recently, sales activity has increased, boosted by both home-buyers and investors out of Melbourne seeking affordability and growth. Most of Bendigo’s suburbs have median house prices between $250,000 and $380,000 – and prices are now starting to rise.
Stirling LGA, WA
The Stirling LGA is one of four precincts in the Perth metropolitan area leading the recovery in the Perth property market, following the city’s four-year real estate downturn. 
Properties across this precinct maintained a steadier performance than most Perth locations throughout the recent economic downturn - and now 10 of its suburbs have rising markets, including Carine, Doubleview, Gwelup, Innaloo, Joondanna and Tuart Hill..
The City of Stirling offers a leisurely seaside lifestyle, being home to the internationally renowned Scarborough Beach. Trendy bars and cafes impart a youthful vibrancy, attracting a steady stream of 20–40-year-olds. 
Further adding to the region’s appeal are the shopping and education facilities, coupled with good transport links to the Perth CBD.
The Stirling LGA has some affordable suburbs with medians in the $300,000s, but most suburbs are middle-market areas with typical prices in the $600,000s and $700,000s.
Queanbeyan, NSW
The proximity of Queanbeyan (now part of the newly-formed Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council area) to the nation’s capital is paying dividends for local property markets. 
The region is experiencing strong population growth, unemployment is low, new housing estates are under construction and there are plans for the nearby Canberra International Airport to become a 24-hour freight hub.
But the most appealing aspect of Queanbeyan is its affordability relative to Canberra, with median prices for both houses and units below those in the national capital. It’s also helped by NSW incentives for first-home buyers.
Property sales activity in Queanbeyan increased in 2016, leading it to become a standout region for growth, and the uplift continued in 2017 and into 2018.
With Canberra forecast to be one of the nation’s leading cities for price growth in the next few years, Queanbeyan’s links to the capital are expected to boost the local market.
Good rental yields are another attraction, with several suburbs having median yields around 4–5% for houses and 5.5% for units.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Five hotspots you may not think of: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Price growth in the Top end suburbs can often be a signal for an emerging growth cycle in a city market. 
Certainly, the booms in both Sydney and Melbourne started in the most expensive areas and rippled out to the middle-ring and outer-ring areas over time. 
This is because real estate growth comes from events in the local economy. When the underlying economy in a major city starts to thrive, the first people to benefit are the business owners and others with above-average incomes - and that translates into purchases in the prestige suburbs.
So we think it is significant that, while prices remain suppressed in Perth overall, many of the millionaire suburbs have seen good price growth in the past year. This is also a feature in Adelaide: price growth overall has been moderate but prices have been rising strongly in the Top End suburbs.
It’s much less prevalent in the Brisbane market, which is struck in second gear and struggling to accelerate.
One factor evident in our latest analysis of sales activity and prices is that there is growth in the upper end of the Perth market. The latest data shows that several Perth suburbs with median house prices above $1 million have recorded strong growth in their medians in the past 12 months. 
This trend is widespread across the prestige market. Suburbs with strongly rising prices include Nedlands, Applecross, Cottesloe, Dalkeith and Bicton. 
Confidence that the upturn is sustainable comes from revival in the mining sector and the large numbers of jobs being created. As the WA economy improves, businesses thrive and business people become more confident in their real estate purchases.
This suggests that Perth generally can look forward to a return to price growth in the near future. This is supported by recent reports from Knight Frank, SQM Research and the Real Estate Institute of WA.
In Adelaide, while sources such as CoreLogic and SQM Research report annual growth of only 1-2% in Adelaide house prices, these generalised figures disguise individual areas which have done better.
It’s noteworthy that several millionaire suburbs have recorded major growth in their median house prices in past 12 months.
Glenelg South, Kensington Park, St Georges, Erindale, Henley Beach South, Hyde Park, North Adelaide and Hazelwood Park all have median prices above $1 million and have had median price growth above 20% in the past year. Other upper-level suburbs like Glenunga, Norwood, Parkside, Beaumont and Crafers have had growth above 10%. 
Some suburbs have had median price growth above 35% (and one above 40%) but based on small sales samples so we think this may be misleading.
In Brisbane, however, only a handful of popular inner-ring suburbs (e.g. Ashgrove, Paddington and Bulimba) have recorded double-digit growth in median prices in the past year.
Some examples of rising markets in the Top End of some capital cities:-
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/8/21/ryder2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/8/21/ryder2.jpg" alt="">
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Prestige markets rising in smaller cities like Perth and Adelaide: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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There are growing reasons for hope and optimism for property investors who bought in resources-related towns at the height of the mining investment boom.
The question I get asked most often is “when will Gladstone recover?” - or similar questions about other resources-impacted regional centres around Australia.
For the past couple of years, the honest answer did not give much cheer to those holding properties worth considerably less than they paid and earning a lot less in rent than before (if a tenant could be found at all).
But now, increasingly, the news is more positive. Many of these places are showing definite signs of recovery and investors can look forward to the prospect of better prices and rentals.
I’m not suggesting anyone should rush out and buy in these places, most of which sit at the high-risk end of the investment spectrum – just that, for those who own property there (it’s amazing how many people do), there is light at the end of a very long tunnel.
In our latest edition of the Price Predictor Index, the number of Regional Queensland locations classified as Danger markets has dropped from a record high of 31 late in 2016 to 19 now. 
Markets showing signs of recovery include Dalby, Emerald, Moranbah, Rockhampton, Mackay and the Whitsundays. 
Mackay is showing quite strong signs of returning to growth, with sales activity up, vacancies down and some evidence of prices rising again. With the Central Queensland mining industry revitalising, Mackay is likely to show some reasonable growth in the next couple of years.
Dalby’s economic and property fortunes rose and fell with the fortunes of the coal seam gas industry in the Surat Basin. Right now, its median house price ($255,000) is lower than it was five years ago but likely to recover in the near future.
Quarterly sales in Dalby over the past two years have been 32, 33, 41, 43, 50, 52, 65 and 75, a pattern that confirms the recovery in this market. Vacancies have dropped to around 2%, according to SQM Research.
Some of the worst-affected markets still have high vacancies and falling property values - and should be approached with caution. 
They include Mount Isa and Gladstone. Mount Isa still has eight suburbs classified as Danger markets and Gladstone still has six. Gladstone should improve, as the overall vacancy rate has dropped from a peak of 12% early in 2016 to around 3.5% now - still a little too high, but the trend is encouraging.
Regional areas of WA are nudging towards recovery, notably the resources-related centres in the north of the state.
Karratha and Port Hedland/South Hedland both have sales activity heading in the right direction again, a factor confirmed by our latest survey of sales volumes and also by new figures for the June Quarter from the Real Estate Institute of WA.
At the pinnacle of the resources investment boom, the median house price for Port Hedland was well above $1 million. 
The latest figures show a median price around $395,000. This is 14% above the level of a year ago, though still well below the peak during the resources boom. 
The median price bottomed out around $350,000 earlier in the year, so there appear to be early signs of growth.
But we continue to urge caution - this kind of volatility is common in resources-related markets and they are not for the faint-hearted.
Similarly, there is a general pattern of growth in the Karratha market - and a similar history with prices.
The Karratha market was achieving only 45-55 sales per quarter in 2015 but in the past six quarters have each topped 80 sales. 
Typical house prices in Karratha are now below $300,000, compared with $700,000 to $800,000 at the peak of the resources investment boom.
Median prices in the Karratha area include $260,000 for Bulgarra (up 13% in the past 12 months but down 40% over 3 years), $345,000 for Nickol (up 28% in 12 months but 20% below the levels of three years ago) and $250,000 for Pegs Creek (up 5% in 12 months but still 42% below the levels of three years ago).
There is even a glimmer of recovery in sales activity in the remote resources town of Newman, with a median price ($145,000) at a fraction of the boom-time levels. 
Sales levels in Newman have improved, although from a very low base - in 2015 there were only 11 sales in the town, but there were 57 in 2016 and 75 in 2017.
The Kalgoorlie-Boulder market remains well below par. In 2012/2013 this market was recording around 250 sales per quarter but in the past 12 months fewer than 125 per quarter. We continue to classify Kalgoorlie as a Danger market.
In South Australia, former growth star Whyalla has been classified in The Price Predictor Index as a Danger market over the past two years, but there is hope for better things. 
Our latest quarterly survey shows signs of an upturn in sales, but at levels still well below the resources-fuelled peak of 2013/2014.
Sales in the past four quarters have been 10, 30, 31  and 37, which shows a pattern of improvement, but compares to quarterly sales of 96, 99, 89 and 84 in 2012-13.
Better news about the future of ailing steel maker Arrium, one of the region’s major employers, gives rise to hope for recovery in the local economy and property market. 
I await the next few quarterly surveys to see whether recent signs of upturn in sales activity are real.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
ryder@hotspotting.com.au
twitter.com/hotspotting
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When will Gladstone recover? Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVATION 
The leading growth markets in Australia are now occurring in places you might not expect. With the end to the up-cycles in Sydney and Melbourne, the growth stories are now focusing on our smaller capital cities and the larger regional ones.
In Hotspotting’s quarterly surveys of sales activity for the Price Predictor Index, one of main focus points is finding clusters of suburbs where there’s growth momentum. Rather than highlight individual suburbs, we identify Local Government Areas where there are multiple growth suburbs.
In the winter survey, we have identified the Top 10 LGAs in the nation, in terms of the number of upwardly-mobile suburbs.
Municipalities in Melbourne and Sydney previously dominated these lists, but no more. It’s now about Adelaide, Perth, Brisbane, Canberra and some of the more notable regional cities.
Here’s our new National Top 10, (in alphabetical order):
<ul>
<li>Ballarat, VIC</li>
</ul>
The regional city of Ballarat has become the strongest market in Victoria, having overtaken the City of Greater Geelong which has led the state on busy sales activity for the past year or so. Ballarat is attracting large numbers of buyers out of Melbourne, drawn by its affordability and better rental yields compared to the capital city. Ballarat also appeals for its growth potential, driven by the strength and diversity of the local economy. Our winter survey has identified nine suburbs with rising sales activity and this is starting to translate into strong price growth.
<ul>
<li>Belconnen, ACT</li>
</ul>
Canberra’s market is steadily rising and, as we have often observed, the strongest market activity in the national capital is happening in the northern suburbs, headed by the Districts of Belconnen and Gungahlin. Belconnen has seven suburbs with growing sales activity and is the market leader in a city characterised by low vacancies, strong rental growth and solid potential for prices to rise in 2018-19. Growth markets include Bruce, Florey, Flynn, Holt and Macgregor.
<ul>
<li>Bendigo, VIC</li>
</ul>
We’ve noted the rise of Ballarat in previous quarterly surveys, but the surge in Bendigo has emerged only recently. Like Ballarat, the city of Bendigo is rising because of its own inherent strengths and also because of its strong links to Melbourne. It has eight rising suburbs, including Kangaroo Flat where quarterly sales have been 52, 58, 64, 64, 68 and 71, while North Bendigo sales have been 14, 20, 25, 29 and 38. The median house price for both suburbs is $310,000, emphasising the city’s affordability. 
<ul>
<li>Geelong, VIC</li>
</ul>
The City of Greater Geelong is no longer the market leader in Victoria but it remains strong. The Geelong LGA has seven growth suburbs, more than any of the Melbourne LGAs, but down on the levels we identified in previous surveys. There’s evidence that it may have passed its peak, as there are now more plateau and consistency markets than rising markets. The Geelong market continues to appeal as a cheaper alternative to Melbourne but may lose some gloss as 2018 progresses.
<ul>
<li>Marion, SA</li>
</ul>
The City of Marion continues to be one of the leaders in the promising Adelaide market. This middle-market area in the south-west of Adelaide now has six suburbs with Rising Steadily markets, down on the nine we identified six months ago, but nevertheless a very steady market which is characterised by its value-for-money appeal and proximity to key infrastructure. This includes the Flinders university-medical precinct.
<ul>
<li>Melville, WA</li>
</ul>
One of the leaders of Perth’s fightback is the Melville LGA in the southern suburbs, with seven growth markets. Attadale, Bicton, Booragoon, Kardinya, Melville and Palmyra now have rising sales activity, while six other suburbs are consistent performers. Bicton sales have been 26, 31, 29, 44, 45, 54 and 60 in the past seven quarters and its median house price has risen 23% to $1.08 million in the past 12 months. Other locations have shown more moderate growth, such as Attadale which has risen 5% to $1.15 million.
<ul>
<li>Moreton Bay Region, QLD</li>
</ul>
Six months ago, Moreton Bay Region was the No.1 LGA in Australia for growth markets. It no longer has that title, but remains one of the nation’s leaders. Moreton Bay LGA, in Brisbane’s far north, has maintained its position as the No.1 market in the Greater Brisbane area but with a smaller number of growth markets. There are now eight Rising Steadily suburbs (down from 14 in our Spring 2017 survey). Growth locations include Bellara, Bellmere, Burpengary, Burpengary East, Caboolture, Caboolture South, Eatons Hill and Kippa-Ring, with affordability and solid infrastructure among the drivers of growth.
<ul>
<li>Port Adelaide Enfield, SA</li>
</ul>
The Port Adelaide Enfield LGA has emerged in 2018 as a market leader in the South Australian capital. Our latest survey reveals seven suburbs with growing sales activity. Upwardly-mobile markets in this LGA include Blair Athol, Broadview, Clearview, Greenacres, Hillcrest and Semaphore. This precinct is characterised by a number of smallish suburbs where turnover is steadily rising. The Port Adelaide sector is likely to attract growing interest as the massive long-term project to build vessels for the Navy unfolds. 
<ul>
<li>Onkaparinga, SA</li>
</ul>
The Onkaparinga LGA in Adelaide’s south is a regular feature in our reports, offering a mix of lifestyle and new growth suburbs, with improved transport links to central Adelaide. Rising suburbs include Woodcroft (median $395,000) where quarterly sales have been 40, 42, 47 and 55 in the past year. Other growth markets here include Aberfoyle Park, Noarlunga Downs, Old Reynella, Seaford and Seaford Rise. Most of these locations have median house prices in the $300,000s, emphasising that affordable dwellings amid an area with appealing lifestyle features is a core driver of growth. 
<ul>
<li>Stirling, WA</li>
</ul>
The middle-market Stirling LGA in Perth is now the No.1 municipality in the nation for growth markets. I have often commented that the municipality of Stirling has stood out for “sterling performance” in the face of the Perth downturn - and its status has grown. Ten of its suburbs have Rising Steadily markets. Sales in the suburb of Innaloo (median house price $560,000) have been 61, 66, 73, 72, 78, 97, 83, 98 and 102 over the past two years.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
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The top 10 LGAs in Australia for property growth markets: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVATION 
As the Melbourne market winds down, regional Victoria is rising strongly. In a trend similar to that in New South Wales, regional Victoria is the strongest we’ve seen since starting our quarterly surveys of sales activity three years ago. 
Our Winter 2018 survey for The Price Predictor Index has identified 47 growth markets among the cities and towns of regional Victoria, compared to 36 a year ago and 23 two years ago.
The days when it was Geelong first and daylight second are over. Both Ballarat and Bendigo have overtaken Geelong, which nevertheless remains a market of note.
These three regional cities combined have 24 growth suburbs, double the number in the Melbourne metropolitan area.
The Geelong LGA still has seven growth suburbs, but 13 plateau markets and five consistency suburbs. This suggests Geelong, like nearby Melbourne, has passed the peak of its boom, while continuing to show strength and resilience. 
Many Greater Geelong suburbs have had strong median price growth in the past 12 months, including Corio (up 22% to $315,000) and Norlane (up 23% to $290,000). 
Ballarat is now the leading market in regional Victoria, with nine growth suburbs, but it is being seriously challenged by Bendigo, with eight rising suburbs.
We’ve noted the rise of Ballarat in previous quarterly surveys, but the surge in Bendigo has only emerged in our latest survey.
Quarterly sales in Kangaroo Flat in Bendigo have been 52, 58, 64, 64, 68 and 71, while North Bendigo has had 14, 20, 25, 29 and 38 sales in recent quarters. The median house price for both suburbs is $310,000 and this city, like Ballarat, is attracting buyers out of Melbourne because of its affordability, as well as its growth potential. 
Another regional centre to emerge recently is Shepparton, which is the nerve centre of a thriving agricultural district and is attracting significant infrastructure spending. Sales in this LGA have been 169, 165, 194, 185, 214, 230 and 242 in the past seven consecutive quarters.
In the Latrobe LGA east of Melbourne, Traralgon, Morwell and Newborough all have busy markets, while in the Mount Alexanader LGA north of state capital, the towns of Castlemaine and Maldon are both rising.
Another regional area that surged early off the back of the Melbourne boom - Cardinia Shire in the south-east - remains busy. The main centres of Pakenham and Officer are still very active markets with strong price growth. Pakenham’s median house price has risen 20% to $485,000 in the past 12 months, while Officer is up 29% to $515,000.
Cardinia is a neighbour of the City of Casey, one of Melbourne’s strongest population growth areas in the far south-east of the metropolitan area. 
The Bass Coast area has some strong markets, including Wonthaggi and North Wonthaggi. Quarterly sales in North Wonthaggi have been 24, 35, 31, 39 and 44 in the past five consecutive quarters - and its median house price has risen 9% to $295,000 in the past 12 months.
The Baw Baw LGA features rising markets like Warragul and Trafalgar. This area, east of Melbourne, recently has been prominent in official data on areas with strong population growth.
Warragul’s median house price has risen 19% to $405,000 in the past year.
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The 47 property growth markets in regional Victoria: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Real estate abounds with myths and misconceptions and there are few bigger than this furphy: you always get the best growth in the “prime” areas.
That old chestnut has always been false but commentators still repeat it, particularly those who make their living from selling real estate in the millionaire suburbs.
The top end of town in both Melbourne and Sydney have seen good growth in recent years, but over the longer-term they’re not the market leaders.
In Melbourne, the prime market is headed by suburbs like Toorak (median price $4.7 million) and Canterbury (a tick under $3 million). Toorak’s 10-year growth average is 5.9 percent a year, which is pretty ordinary, while Canterbury averages 6.8 percent. By contrast, the previously-stigmatized Sunshine suburbs in the western suburbs all average above 10 percent a year, while humble Thomastown and Lalor up in the northern fringes of the Melbourne metro area average better than 9 percent.
There are many similar examples to be found across Sydney and Melbourne.
It’s good news for real estate consumers, most of whom can’t afford the swanky suburbs and are simply looking for locations where the prices are attainable and the growth prospects are strong.
Fortunately, there are plenty of options around Australia.
Right now, the most buoyant markets – as well as the ones with the best future prospects – are generally the more affordable ones.
While the average price performance for Sydney and Melbourne is now a little in the negative, it’s mostly happening in the expensive areas, while the more affordable outer-ring markets are still delivering some growth.
Our strongest capital city market right now is the cheapest one, Hobart.
The capital cities with the best prospects moving forward are those which offer a lot more affordable options than Sydney or Melbourne – namely, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth.
And in terms of the markets that are showing the greatest activity and highest price growth right now – they’re mostly regional centres, where prices are a lot more attractive than their capital cities.
Geelong has thrived partly because of the price comparison with Melbourne and Newcastle has surged thanks in part to its pricing compared to Sydney.
For these and other reasons, the most popular reports at Hotspotting include the ones we call Cheapies with Prospects. We have a city edition and a regional edition.
Each edition has five locations worth considering and here I’m focusing on three of them, to illustrate why cheaper areas with good growth drivers are worthy of attention from real estate consumers.
Ipswich City
Not many capital cities offer suburbs with median house prices below $300,000 but Brisbane does. You’re most likely to find them in Ipswich City (pictured above) in the south-west of the Greater Brisbane area – although suburbs with medians in the $300,000s are more common.
So the area offers plenty of “Cheapies” but the key words are “With Prospects”, and Ipswich City offers plenty of potential for growth.
It has good infrastructure, transport links, amenities and major job nodes, helped by the evolution of master-planned communities like Springfield. 
A key factor in identifying hotspots is what’s coming up in the near future and this is what puts Ipswich firmly on our radar screen: there is big spending on infrastructure, like the ongoing expansion of the RAAF Base at Amberley, and major new jobs nodes, like the one being created by the $5 billion Defence contract recently announced.
City of Marion
The South Australian economy is steadily improving and prospects for Adelaide property markets are rising. 
I like the City of Marion because it’s middle market by Adelaide standards but its price levels are below the bottom end of Sydney and Melbourne.
Several suburbs have median house prices in the $300,000s though there are more in the $400,000s. The LGA is handy to the Adelaide CBD, with good transport links, and has multiple growth drivers, including Flinders University, the nearby Flinders medical precinct and the strongly-emerging Tonsley precinct created from the former Mitsubishi car plant.
Ballarat
Regional Australia abounds with growth markets at the moment and many of them have attractive prices.
Ballarat in Victoria stands out because it’s a strong, growing regional city with great links to its capital city, but at a fraction of the price.
There are growing numbers of Melbourne residents prowling Ballarat looking for affordable properties with attractive rental yields, amid a thriving local economy.
There are suburbs with median house prices in the mid-$200,000s and others in the low-to-mid-$300,000s. Yields in the 4.5 to 5.5 percent range are on offer.
Several locations have recorded double-digit price growth in the past 12 months.
The most popular suburbs, in terms of sales numbers, are Wendouree and Sebastopol, both of which have a median price of $260,000.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Three of the best and cheapest locations with growth prospects: Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
National property booms are rare in this country. There are always regional differences playing out at any point in history. For investors, this is a good thing.
People often ask me if this is a good time to buy. I tell them it’s the wrong question. The right question is: where is it a good time to buy?
At any point in time, it’s a good time to buy somewhere in this vast and diverse nation.
I’ve spent some time studying a table listing the median house prices for our four largest cities and their annual growth rates since 1970, compiled from data from the ABS and other sources.
Over the almost 50 years covered by this table, there are only two short periods in which all four cities recorded double-digit price growth at the same time.
Most of the time Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth have been doing their own thing: each has had strong growth periods during which the other three were not rising strongly.
According to these figures, Sydney had four years of very strong price growth from 1978 to 1981. During that same time frame, Melbourne and Perth had only moderate growth, while Brisbane sparked to life in 1981 and 1982.
Melbourne surged strongly from 1983 to 1986, but during that period price growth was negligible in Sydney, Brisbane and Perth.
Sydney and Melbourne both started strong growth markets in 1997, extending through to 2003. But Brisbane and Perth didn’t rise until 2002.
Perth continued to have very strong from 2004 to 2006, but the other three cities were weak during that phase.
Both Sydney and Melbourne had big growth from 2013 until recently, but neither Brisbane nor Perth joined the party.
The only brief periods in which all four major cities were strong in unison were 1988-1989 and 2002-2003.
Why do we have these regular differences? Because the national factors commonly quoted by economists to explain Sydney’s boom – like cheap and easy finance, and tax benefits for investors – are not the fundamental drivers.
Keep in mind that those two periods where we did have something approaching a national boom – the late nineties and the early noughties – were both periods when interest rates were high and rising.
Low interest rates and easy debt have not created booms in Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Darwin or Canberra in recent years.
Other major forces are in play. The strength or otherwise of the local economies are the dominating factor. 
The two cities (Sydney and Melbourne) underpinned by the strongest state economies, helped along by major infrastructure spending and strong population growth, have had property booms.
Cities (like Brisbane and Adelaide) with lukewarm economies have had moderate or stagnant property markets while those (Perth and Darwin) afflicted by very weak state economies have had property prices in reverse.
Hobart has risen recently on the back of big improvements in the Tasmanian economy.
It doesn’t surprise me that Brisbane and Perth have often had different property cycles to Sydney and Melbourne. The underlying economies of Queensland and Western Australia (with their strong reliance on the resources sector) are very different to those in NSW and Victoria.
In terms of what happens next, I think it’s significant that both Brisbane and Perth started property growth cycles in the early part of this century around the time that Sydney and Melbourne’s previous run was ending.
Right now, Sydney and Melbourne are winding down after four to five strong years. And the evidence is mounting that Brisbane and Perth are on the cusp of growth phases, helped by multiple factors including a revival of investment in the resources sector.
I would add Adelaide to the list, with the South Australian economy showing increasing signs of better performance, with more predicted to come.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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It's not just about when to buy, it's about where to buy: Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The core task for investors is to find the growth locations, preferably before values rise significantly.
It’s not an easy one because there’s a shortage of helpful information. Mostly the media and the research companies give us historical information and usually in a generalised way. 
This means they tell what’s happened recently, which doesn’t necessarily inform the future, and usually with a single growth figure to describe an entire major city.
But something that came recently from CoreLogic was a little more helpful, because it provided some segmentation of sub-markets. Rather than simply tell us that Sydney and Melbourne prices are falling, it acknowledged that this is only true of some market sectors – and that others are still rising.
There are some patterns with this data which are handy to observe and useful in deciding what happens next and where.
One of the things I know to be true, from a scary number of years of experience, is that up-cycles often/usually begin in the inner-city areas. Over time they ripple out to the middle-ring suburbs and latterly to the outer-ring areas.
Why is it so? One reason, probably the biggest single one, is that real estate markets are largely driven by local economic conditions – not by national factors like interest rate levels or taxation policies, but by what’s happening in the economy at a local level.
This helps to explain why Sydney and Melbourne, underpinned by the No.1 and No.2 economies in the nation, have had booms while the cities afflicted by the weakest of the state/territory economies, Perth and Darwin, have had markets in reverse.
When economies rise, the first people to notice are those in the business community – the ones earning the most money. They react before anyone else does and they tend to live in the millionaire suburbs. Those markets rise first and others follow over time.
When you get towards the end of the cycle, those early adopters have passed their peaks and it’s the cheaper areas on the fringes that are experiencing the busiest markets and the strongest annual price growth.
So, according to the recently-published CoreLogic figures, it’s overly simplistic to claim that Melbourne house prices are falling. CoreLogic’s analysis says that prices in the upper end of the market are down 3.5 percent (generally speaking), but prices at the affordable end are up more than 10 percent.
This correlates with Hotspotting research which indicates that the outer-ring precincts in the Greater Melbourne area – suburbs in LGAs like Hume, Whittlesea, Casey, Melton and Wyndham – have strong sales activity and price growth. And this is what we would expect at this point in the Melbourne cycle.
There’s a similar scenario in Sydney – the upper end price levels generally are falling but there’s still some growth in the cheaper outlying areas.
The pattern for Hobart is interesting and informative, because it suggests that the Tasmanian capital is still pumping but that the peak might be near. The top end of the Hobart market is still rising (up almost 10 percent) but the cheaper end is up a lot more (around 18 percent, according to these figures).
That suggests the market overall is still strong but the lower end is the strongest.
In terms of how all this informs the future, Perth is a good case study. When I recently looked at all the numbers for Perth, one of the things that stood out was that many of the million-dollars suburbs had recorded good growth in their median house prices but elsewhere this was not the case.
The CoreLogic figures would tend to confirm that, because they find that the upper end has risen but the cheaper end is still slightly in the negative.
This, taken with other information, confirms for me that Perth is moving into a recovery phase in response to improvements in the local economy – and, as I would expect, the upper end areas are the first to react.
I’ve seen evidence of a similar scenario in Adelaide, with many of the top end suburbs showing good annual price growth, ahead of what I expect to be a strong showing by the Adelaide market generally in the next 12-18 months.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Terry Ryder

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