Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

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"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

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After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

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The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Terry Ryder

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Entrenched habits die hard and it’s difficult to shake people’s rigid views about certain locations.
This, despite everything that’s happened recently, applies to the hottest market in Australia right now, Hobart.
Hobart has been leading city Australia for some time on a number of parameters, including highest price growth, fastest-selling locations, lowest vacancy rates and highest rental yields, as well as having the lowest prices among the state and territory capitals.
Many remain unconvinced for a host of entrenched but out-of-date reasons: it’s not sustainable, the economy is weak, there’s no population growth, the city is too small, no one wants to live there, etc.
The reality is that much has changed. And it’s because of these fundamental changes that Hobart has a booming property market. It also provides clues as to which city will rise next.
Tasmania previously ranked as the weakest economy in the nation. It consistently ranked last or second last on most of the key parameters. But that’s old news. Tasmania’s economy has improved markedly and it now is entrenched in fourth ranking among the eight state and territory economies, according to CommSec.
Previously Tasmania generated little or no population growth, because of the once weak economy, but that has changed too. Now Tasmania is a net gainer from interstate migration and overseas migration – not with the big numbers of Victoria or Queensland, but now growing again.
Housing affordability is partly the cause. Hobart has been easily the cheapest of the capital cities for houses and apartments, but perhaps not for much longer. Such has been the strength of its price growth that it may soon overtake cities like Adelaide and Darwin in terms of its median house price.
According to one source, Hobart has been the price growth leader for 10 consecutive months. Its median prices now are around $450,000 for houses and $350,000 for units.
Price growth has been underpinned by that strong state economy and an increased level of spending on infrastructure, as well as growing numbers of buyers attracted by the relatively low prices.
Recent research suggested that Hobart is now the most unaffordable capital city for renters – that’s typical rents relative to typical local incomes (May Rental Affordability Index). This is bad news for local tenants but good news for investor owners.
Hobart rents have been rising because vacancies have been well under 1 percent for a long time – the lowest among the capital cities, challenged only by Canberra.
A recent survey found 40 Hobart suburbs with no rentals available at all, while another 31 suburbs had only three or fewer available for rent. It’s been suggested that local councils have been very slow to approve new dwellings, creating a shortage of rental supply.
So should you be rushing off to buy in Hobart? Not necessarily. Two years ago would have been a great time to buy there but there’s already been a lot of growth. There’s a case for building new dwellings there, if you have high levels of patience.
The smartest of investors will look at what’s happened in Hobart, understand why it’s risen and then ask the core question: where next?
Given that Hobart’s run has been driven by affordable prices, low vacancies, a strengthening economy and elevated infrastructure spending, I’d suggest the next place to look for uplift is Adelaide.
But, like Hobart, Adelaide is a hard sell. Many people have entrenched negative views about Adelaide, as they do about Hobart. And no level of change in circumstances will change the unshakeable views.
But I’m increasingly bullish about Adelaide, with its improving economy, strengthening confidence levels, growing status as the national capital for hi-tech innovation and alternative energy - and all that’s coming up in the construction pipeline, including those big contracts to building submarines and other vessels for the Navy.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Australia's hottest property market - and where's next?

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If you can believe the headlines, Australian property values are falling. The thing is, you can’t believe the headlines. In most of our major markets, values are not falling at all. 
The problem is the way research firms and economists like to generalise about price data, with a single number describing movements in the mythical thing they call “Australian property prices”. Like most generalised figures, this serves only to create confusion and misinformation. 
According to recent headlines, national values are falling, which means the average situation with prices is a small decline. This was an annual decrease of 0.4 percent, according to one source.
But, lurking behind this pointless and misleading single figure which apparently depicts our entire vast nation, are the following factors:
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1">Regional areas overall are rising.</li>
<li class="li1">Five of the eight capital cities are rising.</li>
<li class="li1">The only significant market showing annual decline is Sydney, but the size of that market is dragging down the overall average.</li>
</ul>
The truth is that Australia abounds with major cities, some capital, some regional, with growth markets. Inspired by that reality, here are my ten leading cities with growth trajectories in 2018:-
Hobart: The Tasmanian capital is currently recording double-digit growth in its house prices and is likely to continue showing growth, underpinned by a vastly improved state economy. Property is selling faster there than any other capital city, vacancies are lower there than anywhere else and there’s no sign of activity slowing down. 
Canberra: Most research sources have Canberra values rising steadily. SQM Research’s index has Canberra up 8.5 percent. This is not surprising as the ACT economy is strong, Canberra vacancies are almost as low as Hobart’s, rents are rising and land prices are high (as a result of the ACT Government controlling land releases). All things considered, Canberra should be a national leader on price growth this year.
Brisbane: Overall, Brisbane isn’t showing much growth, but values are rising. When you look behind the generalised data, there are precincts with strong price rises. I expect Brisbane growth to gradually pick up this year because the underlying economy is improving, population data is favouring South-East Queensland again and infrastructure spending is rising. The affordability comparison also favours Brisbane.
Adelaide: The SA capital is similar to Brisbane. The generalised data shows only minor price growth, but individual precincts are doing much better, especially the top end. The SA economy is stronger than most realise and its steady improvement will boost the property market. I expect price growth is pick up as the year progresses. Adelaide offers great value-for-money and much better yields than the biggest cities.
Perth: The WA capital is one of those cities where values overall are still down, but it depends on whose figures you believe. SQM records a 3 percent annual rise in its Asking Prices Index for Perth. My own research shows that most of the million-dollar suburbs have had double-digit growth in the past year. There’s no doubt the Perth downturn is over and we will see further evidence of growth as the year unfolds.
Melbourne fringes: The single-growth figure to describe an entire large city never tells the full story. Melbourne overall has passed its peak but the outer ring suburbs are still very strong. The price growth in the past year in the northern fringes around Epping, the far south-east including Cranbourne, and the south-western regions around Werribee and Wyndham Vale, has been exceptional. 
Newcastle/Hunter Region: The City of Newcastle has been one of the nation’s outstanding markets recently. Values overall have increased in double digits and many suburbs have grown their median house prices by over 20 percent. The local economy is thriving and the affordability comparison with Sydney has helped. Now the growth is rippling out to nearby areas, including the towns of the Hunter region.
Geelong and nearby regions: Geelong has been the outstanding market in Victoria in the past year or so, and continues to deliver strong sales activity and price growth. It’s part of a wider trend, in which regional centres close to Melbourne are attracting spill-over population growth and demand for homes. Locations north and south of Melbourne continue to attract extraordinary sales activity and price growth.
Ballarat: This strong regional city could be included the previous paragraph as a regional centre near the state capital, but it deserves its own exclusive mention. More and more Melbourne buyers are targeting Ballarat because it’s well-connected to the big city and offers attractive affordability and a different kind of lifestyle. This is now a very busy market and I expect prices to show solid rises this year.
Sunshine Coast: I know many who followed our advice and bought into the Sunshine Coast market 12-18 months ago: they’re happy punters. The region’s economy is transitioning to a place of greater diversity and strength – and this is driving real estate demand. It’s attracting lots of new residents. This process is still in its infancy and there’s plenty more growth to come. Noosa, which has under-achieved for 10 years, has joined the growth party.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Australia's top 10 real estate growth cities in 2018: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Generalised reporting of major markets is the curse of investors trying to find out what’s really happening. The growth figures published in mainstream media, with a single figure to describe an entire city, mislead more than they inform.
It’s one reason why few people I speak to can be convinced that it’s worth considering Adelaide, which I regard as Australia’s most under-rated market.
The generalised figures suggest little price growth - but, as is often the case, individual locations are doing better. 
Figures from realestate.com.au show that some Adelaide suburbs are selling homes quickly - and other data shows that many of these locations are recording above-average price growth.
According to realestate.com.au data for the six months to April 30, Gilberton has Adelaide’s fastest-selling houses. Houses in the north-eastern fringe suburb have a median time on market of 13 days – up there with the best in the nation.
Gilberton’s median house price has grown 19 percent in the past year to reach $1,090,000.
Houses in Hyde Park (median price $1,370,000, up 5 percent in 12 months) and Sefton Park (640,000, up 21 percent) have a median time on market of 17 days.
Clarence Gardens ($630,000, up 7 percent) and Melrose Park ($552,000, up 8 percent) houses sell in 18 days.
Realestate.com.au chief economist Nerida Conisbee said Adelaide’s market is performing strongly and sale times will likely go down as stock levels typically drop over winter.
“On average we typically see homes selling in around 40 days so you are looking at a pretty speedy market,” Conisbee says.
This confirms our view that the Adelaide market is stronger than the generalised price data indicates.
And I think it will get stronger, as the state economy delivers on the considerable promise it is increasingly showing. 
The unemployment rate for South Australia has risen slightly in the latest official data, but it remains healthy at 5.9 percent, compared to 6.5 percent in Queensland and Western Australia, and 6 percent in Tasmania. Only NSW (5 percent) and Victoria (5.3 percent) have better jobless rates than SA. 
The state economy is showing great resilience, despite some negatives such as the Holden factory closure, and this is under-pinning real estate markets.
Adelaide is the innovation capital of Australia and increasingly major businesses are relocating to the SA capital for that reason. SA leads on the nation on alternative energy and projects under way or in planning total many billions of dollars. 
And the big enterprises to create vessels for the Navy are also in the pipeline.
Canberra is another capital city that flies under the radar screens of most investors, despite everything it offers.
The ACT has the nation’s fastest-growing economy, according to Deloitte Access Economics’ business outlook, which says the ACT went to the “top of the leaderboard” in 2017, with gross state product rising 4.6 percent.
Deloitte partner Chris Richardson says low interest rates have given the ACT’s “massive mortgage belt” some breathing space. “There’s two big levers at play in Canberra: the size of the public service and interest rates,” he says.
After weathering government cutbacks in recent years, the public sector is now “in the sweet spot”.
The State of the States report from CommSec has the ACT in third place overall in a study of the states and territories on eight economic indicators. 
The ACT trailed NSW and Victoria overall but ranks first on housing finance (up 28% on the long-term average), second on unemployment and second for annual population growth, up 1.8%. The ACT’s home building starts were up 16.5% on decade averages, placing it third. It’s a strong report card and is a key factor in the steady rise in prices and rents. 
The latest figures from SQM Research confirm the very low vacancy rates in Canberra.  The firm’s mid-May report recorded a vacancy rate of 0.8%, compared with Sydney (2.3%), Brisbane (3%) and Perth (4.1%). 
Only Hobart (0.7%) has a lower vacancy rate, according to these figures.
Not surprisingly, rents are rising. In annual terms, the weekly asking rent index is up 7.6% for houses and 4.1% for units.
The Domain Group has also published figures showing strong annual rises in Canberra rents, with houses overall up 6% and units up about 5%. 
Domain chief data scientist Dr Nicola Powell says: “This data echoes what we have been seeing in the Canberra market and that is rents are rising across the board.
“House rents have been growing since mid-2015 and unit rents have been growing since the end of 2015.”
Some forecasters have tipped Canberra to lead the capital cities on price growth in the next three years. I’m not sure it will be No.1 but I expect it to be a contender.
For my third under-rated market, I could nominate pretty much any of our major regional cities.
Organisations whose goal is promoting themselves rather than informing the public like to publish average growth rates to compare capital cities with the regions. The regions will always lose in this comparison because the regions include struggling mining towns and other areas suffering from negative events such as drought.
It would be more valid to compare the capital cities with the largest regional centres like Newcastle, the Gold Coast and Geelong - and this comparison would produce a very different result.
Many suburbs in both Newcastle and Geelong have recorded median price growth above 20 percent in the past 12 months. Several other regional markets, including those close to Melbourne and to Sydney, have had serious growth in the past couple of years.
But under the general heading of under-rated I’d go for Ballarat. Whenever I speak about cities like this, I get that kneejerk reaction about regional centres never delivering growth.
But consider what a city like Ballarat offers. Virtually every suburb has a median house price below $450,000, including several with medians in the $200,000s. It’s not too hard to find rental yields above 5 percent. And there’s been serious price growth recently.
The suburbs of Soldiers Hill, Buninyong and Black Hill are up more than 20 percent I the past 12 months. Others have grown 10-12 percent.
The city is underpinned by a strong, diverse local economy, a growing population and good transport links to Melbourne. 
It’s feasible to buy a good home there at a fraction of Melbourne’s prices and commute to work somewhere in the state capital (keeping in mind also that some of Melbourne’s biggest jobs nodes are on the northern fringe of the metro area, closest to cities like Ballarat and other attractive Hill Change towns in Victoria).
But there are plenty of jobs within Ballarat itself, which is attracting growing numbers of buyers from Melbourne, seeking more attractive prices and a different lifestyle.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Australia's three most underrated growth markets

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Brisbane is increasingly in the crosshairs of real estate buyers because of the affordability comparison.
It’s median house price is almost exactly half that of Sydney’s and so is its median unit price. The comparisons are also highly favourable with Melbourne and Canberra.
Having cheap real estate on offer is one thing; the key question is whether there are also prospects for growth. That’s why one of Hotspotting’s most popular products is the “Cheapies with Prospects” package – it focuses on areas that offer not only affordability but also potential for growth.
Brisbane overall hasn’t offered much in the way of capital gains during the period in which Sydney and Melbourne have thrived, largely because the underlying economy has under-achieved.
But there are mounting signs of improvement, especially in the areas of jobs creation, population growth and revival in the resources sector.
So where to head for homes at attainable prices and growth drivers? Brisbane offers three standout options, where there is ample supply of houses well below the overall Greater Brisbane median house price around $530,000.
The cheapest real estate in the Greater Brisbane area is generally found in the Ipswich City LGA in the south-west. Here there are suburbs with median house prices in the $200,000s and the low $300,000s.
One precinct with appeal is the one that includes Goodna (median house price $325,000) and Redbank Plains ($335,000). These suburbs are at the eastern fringe of the LGA, the part closest to Brisbane – and they abut the motorway and the train line that links to central Brisbane. 
They’re also close to the Springfield master-planned community which has an array of modern facilities, including university campus, hospital and commercial-retail precincts.
There are numerous big shopping centres and major employment nodes nearby, with the recently-announced $5 billion Defence vehicle contract focused on this precinct as a major new jobs creator.
So this precinct offers an appealing package: affordability, transport links, shopping and jobs nodes.
Logan City in the far south of the Greater Brisbane area has plenty to offer as well. Many of its suburbs have median house prices in the $300,000s, including Eagleby ($315,000), Beenleigh ($335,000) and Woodridge ($310,000).
This LGA has new development areas, where master-planned communities are under way, but these are off the west, whereas the older and cheaper suburbs tend to be clustered around the transport spine created by the Pacific Motorway and the train line, both of which link central Brisbane to the Gold Coast.
This is also where there is an impressive shopping offering, including major bulky goods retail, and well-established infrastructure like schools and medical facilities (as well as a surprising number of golf courses).
The third of the “Cheapies with Prospects” areas to note in Greater Brisbane is the Moreton Bay LGA up in the far north heading towards the Sunshine Coast. Like Logan City, this precinct has major road and rail links between the coast and central Brisbane.
This is the most active market in Greater Brisbane at the moment: Caboolture, Kallangur, Morayfield, Narangba and North Lakes have each recorded over 400 house sales in the past 12 months.
The first three on that list have median house prices in the $300,000s, as do several other suburbs in the LGA (including some of the bayside areas). North Lakes, a suburb created by an ongoing master-planned community, is more expensive with a median around $500,000, but has brought a heightened level of infrastructure and amenities to the precinct.
There are emerging signs of price growth in this precinct: the suburbs of Beachmere, Burpengary and Upper Caboolture have had double-digit growth in their median prices in the past year, while others are up 6-7 percent.
The upmarket end of the Moreton Bay LGA market is the Redcliffe Peninsula – but most of the water-focused suburbs in this precinct have median house prices in the $400,000s, which is still fairly attractive compared to what you’d pay in Sydney and Melbourne.
And the Peninsula now has rail links to central Brisbane (the new line opened in 2016).
Many of the suburbs in the three precincts have median rental yields in the 5 to 5.5 percent range, as an additional appeal factor.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Top three Brisbane property locations for affordability and growth: Terry Ryder

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The fondness of researchers, economists and media for generalised data is the curse of the real estate consumers trying to figure out what is really going on in the nation’s various housing markets. 
Using a single number to describe the market in a major city - or, in some cases, the entire nation – is as common as it is ludicrous.
Here’s a typical statement which is worse than useless, because not only does it fail to tell anyone anything worth knowing but it creates a misleading impression: “Australian house prices rose 4.0 percent in the past year”.
The first point is that this figure does not describe Australian house prices, it’s actually the capital cities that allegedly rose 4.0 percent.
But the 4.0 percent figure does not accurately depict the housing market in any of the eight cities. 
In Hobart, according to this source, prices rose 13 percent, in Melbourne they were up 9 percent and Canberra was up 6 percent. In both Perth and Darwin, prices fell in annual terms, according to these figures.
There are also myriad different scenarios happening across regional Australia.
So what does the 4.0 percent mean? In reality, absolutely nothing of any value.
The same approach, commonly reported by mainstream media, tells us that “Australian apartment prices” have risen 5.1 percent in the past 12 months.
This is similarly meaningless. Prices fell in Brisbane, Perth and Darwin and were largely unchanged in Adelaide.  Prices rose in Melbourne and Hobart, but not by 5.1 percent – Melbourne was up 8.4 percent and Hobart rose 9.1 percent.
The same source purports to provide a guide on the value of Australian homes. The median dwelling price, apparently, is about $656,000.
Publication of a figure like that can set off a range of comments from multiple sources, many of them expressing outrage that young Australians can’t afford to pay $656,000 for a typical home.
But, again, the figure is misleading and nonsensical. It’s the median value of a home in the combined capital cities, but six of the eight capital cities have median home values considerably lower than that figure.
The generalised national figure is inflated by the size of the Sydney market, where the median home is allegedly worth $895,000, and the Melbourne market, where the median home value is claimed to be $720,000.
But in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Hobart and Darwin, the median home value is in the $400,000s. Adelaide, for example, is $433,000 and Hobart is $404,000.
And, given that these are medians, it means that half of all recent sales have been at prices below that median figure.
The single number describing Sydney does not in any way recognise the differences between Bondi and Blacktown, or Mosman and Macquarie Fields.
So why is the use and abuse of these numbers so widespread? Because the goal of pontificators is not to inform, but to generate publicity – and the use of these cheap and nasty statistics makes it easy.
It would require some effort to give consumers information worth having.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Single numbers can't answer for whole city property market

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One of the emerging themes in real estate in the past couple of years is that when capital cities boom, regional towns just outside the metropolitan area often follow suit.
Sydney’s up-cycle has rippled out to locations in the Central Coast and in the Southern Highlands, and near-city Victorian towns have caught the wave from Melbourne’s strong market.
One of the standout performers has been Cardinia Shire, where strong population growth is driving property sales in the main towns. 
By 2036 the population of the shire, which sits just outside the Melbourne metropolitan area in the south-east, is expected to have almost doubled from 94,000 now to around 180,000. 
Cardinia Shire was named in the State Government’s growth strategy document as the potential site of Melbourne’s third airport. 
Cardinia has the advantage of being near the Port of Hastings and therefore has the potential to become a key player in a freight transport network. 
With a developer now proposing to build a $7 billion private airport, Cardinia’s prospects have lifted significantly, although this is a project with long-term horizons.
Offering a plentiful supply of houses priced under $450,000 and within commuting distance of major Melbourne employment nodes, Cardinia Shire is becoming increasingly worthy of consideration by property investors.
Cardinia Shire is becoming a popular lifestyle location as housing density in the inner- and middle-ring suburbs of Melbourne deepens. 
Several towns within the shire could be considered dormitory suburbs, as 54% of residents travel outside the municipality to work, according to Census data. 
The region is well serviced by transport. The Princes Highway cuts through the middle of the shire while the South Gippsland Highway runs along the southern edge, linking the area to the Melbourne CBD. 
There is the Pakenham line of the Melbourne metro train network which has stations at Beaconsfield, Officer, Cardinia Road and Pakenham, while V/Line trains also service a connection between Gippsland and Pakenham.
Being home to 47,000 in 2016, Pakenham is the most populous district within the Shire and up until 2014, it was the administrative centre of the Shire. Cardinia’s Council offices have now been relocated to Officer.
Pakenham remains the main retail centre for the shire, the most prominent shopping centre being Pakenham Central Marketplace.
Cardinia Shire has come to Hotspotting’s attention because of the rising sales activity in towns like Pakenham, Officer, Beaconsfield and Emerald.
Pakenham consistently sells over 250 homes per quarter, but two of the past three quarters have topped 300 sales. 
This strong sales activity has earned Pakenham a place in our National Top 50 suburbs nationwide for growth.
In the last 12 months, CoreLogic has recorded a 19% increase in Pakenham’s median house price which is now $470,000.
Population growth has been a driving force in Pakenham, prompting the development of several new residential estates. 
This is reflected in the increase of the number of building approvals from 1,241 in FY2014 to 1,938 in FY2017.
The Cardinia Road precinct in Officer is another site of projected population growth and extensive residential construction. 
The median house price in Officer is $485,000 based on 224 sales in the past 12 months, following a 34% increase (although the size of the rise could be misleading).
Towns which offer the best affordability, with median house prices between $380,000 and $450,000, include Bunyip, Lang Lang and Koo Wee Rup.
The Cardinia Shire can expect a substantial influx of new residents over the next 20 years. 
The biggest changes are predicted to occur in the Pakenham area, the Cardinia Road precinct and the Officer precinct.  
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
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Cardinia Shire's population growth driving property sales: Terry Ryder

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I’ve been trying to convince people, without much success, that Adelaide is an economy and property market worthy of serious attention.
There’s rising potential in the South Australian economy, based on its status as the Australian capital for high-tech innovation and alternative energy, and great value-for-money in the Adelaide real estate market.
This week there was some support for my position from Deloitte Access Economics. In its latest assessment of the state and territory economies, it says that South Australia is poised to become the nation’s fastest-growing economy this financial year, as it achieves its best growth since before the GFC.
“South Australia continues to sprint ... so much so that it may wrest the title of ‘fastest growth in the nation’ this year from the ACT,” the Deloitte Access Economics’ Outlook for March says. “The news will come as a surprise to many …”
Yes, many would be surprised, but South Australia and Adelaide tend to be largely ignored in a media that’s obsessed with Sydney and Melbourne.
The tendency to report city real estate markets in terms of a single growth figure gives the impression that not a lot is happening in Adelaide.
It’s easy to be misled by generalised price data, which distils all the market activity in a major city into a single figure describing what prices are allegedly doing.
As one stark example, there are over 700 suburbs in the Sydney metropolitan area but it’s deemed sensible and meaningful to describe this vast urban area as a single market with one figure claiming that “Sydney house prices” have fallen 3.8% in the past year (according to one source).
But a breakdown of individual market precincts show that some are still rising, others are stagnating, still others are falling a little and one or two are declining rather a lot (mostly the near-city areas like the inner western suburbs and the inner south).
So it’s easy to be turned off Adelaide, because the generalised data suggests that “Adelaide house prices” have risen only 2 or 3 percent in the past year. Not much growth there, it seems.
But individual suburbs and sub-markets are doing considerably better. The secret to success for buyers is to find the out-performers, which exist in most situations.
It’s noteworthy that several millionaire suburbs have recorded major growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months. 
Uplift in the premium market is often an early signal of a strong market up-cycle (we’ve seen this also in the recovering Perth market).
Glenelg South, Gilberton, Hawthorn, Kensington Gardens, Rosslyn Park and Hazelwood Park all have median prices above $1 million and all have recorded median price growth above 20% in the past year. 
Other million-dollar suburbs like Glenunga, Toorak Gardens and Unley have had growth above 10%.
Other up-market suburbs with median prices above $800,000 have had double-digit growth, including Glenelg East, Linden Park, Lower Mitcham, Parkside and Stoneyfell. Mitcham’s median is up 25%.
The above-average growth is not all confined to the top end: there are suburbs with median price growth between 10% and 20% spread across all price ranges. 
This reinforces the reality that out-performing locations can be found even when the overall market appears to be moderate.
Lower-end markets with strong median price growth in the past 12 months include Elizabeth (up 16% to $250,000), Parafield Gardens (up 11% to $335,000), and Salisbury (up 13% to $330,000).
I’m expecting more strong growth in Adelaide because, as I have observed previously, there is momentum in the state economy and this will give impetus to the capital city property market.
This week’s assessment by Deloitte Access Economics tends to support that view.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Adelaide economy and property market worthy of serious attention

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Investors tend to under-rate regional Australia. Among the many myths that clutter up the minds of typical investors is the one suggesting that capital cities always out-perform regional markets.
There’s plenty of evidence disproving that notion, but it’s a foolish concept anyway because it’s usually based on media reports of generalised data.
The passion of research firms and journalists to reduce growth to a single figure for major cities or indeed the entire nation is a frequent source of misinformation. 
These numbers sometimes suggest that capital cities are growing faster than the regions, but such data is useless information because within a generally unflattering regional overview (dragged down by struggling resources-related towns) may be individual locations which are doing very well.
But right now, the generalised numbers from CoreLogic have the regions outperforming the capital cities on overall growth.
That does not surprise me because most of the standout locations on price growth in the past 12 months are regional areas.
Newcastle has been one of the nation’s outstanding growth markets recently and some of the regional centres close to Melbourne, including Geelong and the towns of Cardinia Shire, are experiencing exceptional growth. Some suburbs and towns in these areas have increased more than 20% - and a few are above 30%.
The only capital city locations that can challenge them are some of the outer-ring areas of Melbourne, like the suburbs of Wyndham City down near Geelong.
Perhaps more important than these short-term results is a look at recent history, which shows that some of the outstanding growth spurts in Australia in the past 20 years have occurred in regional areas.
According to a recent analysis, the single biggest five-year growth spurt for house prices occurred in Regional Western Australia in the five years to 2008 (prices overall rose 121%). This was when regional centres like Port Hedland and Karratha were being pumped up by the massive investment boom in the resources sector.
Also during that period Regional Tasmania grew 89% and Regional Queensland was up almost 70%.
Another of the outstanding growth periods was achieved by Regional NSW in the five years to 2003, when prices grew an average of 84%, better than any of the capital cities during that boom time (the last time Australia had a genuine nationwide boom).
Also at that time, Regional Victoria prices increased 66% on average.
The No.1 growth area in the five years to 2013 was Regional Northern Territory, which rose 38% at a time when price growth was subdued in most parts of the nation.
Most of the regional growth performances mentioned above put Sydney’s recent five-year boom (prices up 64%, according to these figures) in the shade.
There’s enough juice in those numbers to consider that perhaps the regions have something to offer.
And according to Propertyology’s Simon Pressley, one of the best-researched analysts in the nation, regional Australia is likely to lead over the next five years.
“The best performing markets will be throughout regional Australia — there will be some that will perform exceptionally well,” Pressley says. 
He predicts the markets that will rise in the near future are those that he refers to as “regional hubs”. These are areas with a diversified economic base as opposed to one-industry towns — a “mini capital city”.
“There are a number of regional cities that actually play the role of a mini capital city and they service the smaller towns that might have a population of 5,000 to 10,000. There could be half a dozen or a dozen within a region.
“They’ve got all the essential infrastructure that a capital city has got and a diverse economy. It’s just a smaller scale of it, and literally there would be 30 of those locations. They’re in every state.” 
I wholeheartedly agree. Right now the ones I like include Ballarat, the Hunter Region and Townsville, but there are many others.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Newcastle one of nation's strongest growth areas as regional outperforms capitals

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Major projects are in the planning pipeline for Darwin and the Northern Territory and Darwin’s real estate market desperately needs some of them to proceed.
The local economy lacks activity, jobs creation and population growth – and, as a consequence, property market statistics remain highly negative. 
The regular data on prices and rents continue to show the Darwin market in reverse. Unit prices in Darwin, for example, are down 10.6% (CoreLogic) or 11.7% (SQM Research) in annual terms. The trends also remain negative for house prices and rentals.
Unlike the other downturn capital city, Perth, there are as yet no signs of recovery for Darwin.
The Darwin market downturn has coincided with the end of the resources investment boom and the consequent decline in the Northern Territory economy. As a result, jobs creation and population growth has suffered.
This inevitably has fed through to Darwin real estate, with sales activity falling away dramatically. In Darwin City, residential sales totalled between 435 and 565 in every quarter of 2014 and 2015. But in 2017, quarterly sales been regularly below 330. 
In the apartment market, the rate of sale in 2014 and 2015 was well over 200 sales per quarter, but in 2017 the average was less than 150 per quarter.
The slump has been even more dramatic in the Palmerston LGA adjoining Darwin City. Residential sales totalled over 1,200 in 2014 and 1,100 in 2015, but below 500 in 2017. 
Given that Palmerston is where most of the new residential suburbs have been emerging, these figures illustrate the slump in buyer demand for new homes in the Darwin market.
This has pushed down prices markedly. Virtually every suburb in the Darwin metropolitan area has recorded price decline in the past quarter, the past year and the past three years. 
Most suburbs in the Darwin region have house price levels lower than five years ago.
Examples include the suburb of Alawa, where the median house price has dropped 9% in the latest quarter, 10% in the past year and 22% in the past three years. Its median house price is now $465,000.
In Karama, the median price has dropped 6% in the past quarter, 11% in the past year and 22% in the past three years, and is now $430,000. The Moulden median house price is down 2% (quarter), 11% (12 months) and 20% (three years) to reach $310,000.
There are similarly negative results in the apartment market.
There are two exceptions to this story of decline: the upmarket suburbs of Nightcliff (median house price $770,000) and Rapid Creek ($720,000) have each recorded growth in the past quarter, year and three years - and, unlike most Darwin suburbs, have median prices higher than five years ago.
Significantly, Nightcliff and Rapid Creek show up in Hotspotting’s quarterly surveys of sales activity as suburbs with fairly consistent sales performance. This is in contrast to our overall findings, where most suburbs are classified as danger markets (which means sales activity has dropped markedly and remain well below the peak levels). 
Beyond the Darwin metropolitan area, Alice Springs continues to be the strongest market in the Territory, based on the consistency of its sales performance. It has recorded between 100 and 130 dwelling sales in most of the past 12 quarters - and lately has shown an upward trend.
The Alice house market was at its strongest in 2015 and now quarterly sales (rising from 62 to 73 to 77 to 88 house sales in the past four quarters) are approaching those levels again.
As a result, and in sharp contrast to Darwin, most suburbs in Alice Springs have shown solid growth in median house prices. Braitling, East Side, Larapinta and Gillen have all recorded growth in the past quarter, year and three years.  
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
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Darwin sales falling away dramatically

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Price growth in the outer ring suburbs of Melbourne has been extraordinary in the past 12 months.
Most suburbs in local government areas (LGAs) like Wyndham, Hume, Whittlesea and Casey have recorded double-digit growth in the median house prices. Many have grown more than 20% and some have topped 30%.
The big price rises have come on the back on massive demand for homes from buyers of all sorts chasing affordability, against a background a strong Victorian economy and continuing high population growth. 
The strength of the growth in the outer-ring areas of Melbourne provides further evidence that proximity to the CBD is not an essential factor for buyers seeking capital growth.
Proximity to employment is a core factor but the reality is that most people work in suburban jobs nodes, not in the CBD (that’s true in all capital cities, including Melbourne).
In the City of Casey in the far south-east of the Melbourne metropolitan area, eight suburbs have each recorded over 330 house sales in the past 12 months. 
They include Narre Warren, Clyde North and Cranbourne North, which have each recorded more than 450 house sales, and Berwick where over 700 houses have been sold in the past year. 
Every suburb in the Casey LGA has had double-digit growth in median house prices. Cranbourne, Hallam, Cranbourne East, Hampton Park and Narre Warren have all had median price growth above 20%.
It’s been a similar scenario in the Whittlesea LGA in the far north of the Melbourne metro area. Four suburbs have had over 400 house sales each in the past year and five more have each sold between 225 and 300 houses. 
All the suburbs of Whittlesea have had double-digit growth in their median house prices, including four (Epping, Lalor, Mernda and South Morang) which have grown 20-25% and one (Thomastown) which has risen 33%.
The pattern is similar in the neighbouring Hume LGA. Broadmeadows, Greenvale, Meadow Heights and Roxburgh Park have each sold between 200 and 350 houses, while Craigieburn had made over 500 house sales. 
All the Hume suburbs have had double-digit growth in their median house prices, including six suburbs which have grown more than 20%. They include Jacana (up 26%), Gladstone Park (up 24%) and Broadmeadows (up 29%).
Most of the suburbs of the Melton LGA in the far north-west have each sold over 200 houses in the past year, led by Melton West (335) and Caroline Springs (343).
Every suburb has recorded at least 12% growth in median house prices, while Melton and Melton South are both up 27%.
But, in terms of turnover, the star market is Wyndham City in the south-west heading towards Geelong. 
The sales turnover is prolific in Hoppers Crossing (682 house sales), Wyndham Vale (436), Tarneit (684), Werribee (791) and in particular Point Cook (953).
All of the five suburbs mentioned have grown their median house prices at least 13% in the past year, led by Hoppers Crossing (up 21%) and Werribee (up 22%).
The important lesson is that downmarket, outer-ring areas do record strong price growth and that affordability is a prime driver of activity and prices. That’s especially so in places where the infrastructure is good.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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