A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Joel Robinson

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

IN BRIEF

<ul>
	<li>
	Just three double-storey Sky Homes sit at the top of The Waterline, each with its own private marina berth and rooftop terrace.
	</li>
	<li>
	Construction on The Waterline is complete, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.
	</li>
	<li>
	Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and are priced from $3.65 million.
	</li>
</ul>

<hr />
Lewis Land has opened the first completed sky home for inspection at Harbour Shores, giving buyers their first opportunity to step inside one of just three double-storey residences crowning The Waterline.

Each sky home comes with its own private marina berth, rooftop terrace and Broadwater views, combining the scale of a larger home with direct access to the boating lifestyle that underpins the wider <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366708]

Lewis Land Head of Development Michael Long said the inclusion of a berth with every Sky Home had become increasingly valuable as marina access across the Gold Coast tightened.

“Marina berths are becoming increasingly difficult to secure across the Gold Coast, so including one with every Sky Home makes this a genuinely rare offering,” Long said.

“The private 70-berth marina will accommodate boats up to 12 metres in length and is positioned just 2.5 kilometres from the Broadwater, placing the open ocean only 15 minutes away.

“Being able to step out of your home onto your boat is a rare luxury, and it’s something residents here can look forward to when it opens later this year.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366709]

The display opening comes as construction completes on The Waterline, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.

The three Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and each feature three bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive kitchens with butler's pantries and large balconies taking in the Broadwater outlook.

Each residence also has three secure basement car spaces and additional storage.

“This is the first opportunity the Gold Coast has had to step into Harbour Shores and see, touch and feel what we’re bringing to life here,” Long said.

“There are only three Sky Homes within The Waterline, ranging in size from 282sqm to 367sqm, with each residence featuring three large bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive custom-built kitchens with butler’s pantry, and large balconies capturing Broadwater views.”

<img alt="Harbour Shores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bab65e10-4fab-45e1-92d8-fc56e2ab98ff" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-25%20at%202.00.16%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=XT8q76LsPkw3cYTsvN3JfFDaPLud90PN" />

Residents of The Waterline will have access to a private pool, along with Harbour Shores' wider collection of amenity including a lagoon pool, social clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga facilities and sauna.

Lewis Land partnered with Studio Collective to furnish the completed display, with the interiors designed to demonstrate how the residences could function as permanent homes rather than simply as show apartments.

Studio Collective Director Melissa Park said the surrounding waterways informed the interiors, but in a more restrained way than a traditional coastal scheme.

“We drew inspiration from the canals and coastal surrounds, but our approach was to interpret that subtly through layered materials and a grounded palette of earthy tones, rather than literal coastal references,” Park said.

“We introduced hero moments of green and teal to reference the surrounding waterways, while mirrored elements help reflect natural light.

“The result is a residence that feels elevated yet comfortable, somewhere buyers can genuinely imagine themselves living, entertaining and unwinding.”

Sky Homes are priced from $3.65 million.

Lewis Land is also offering private marina berths with The Residences, its limited collection of three and four-bedroom villas positioned directly along the Harbour Shores waterfront boardwalk.

Three-bedroom villas are priced from $2.99 million, while four-bedroom residences start from $3.19 million.

Harbour Shores is being marketed by Colliers International.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Lewis Land opens sky home display as The Waterline completes at Harbour Shores

St Vincent de Paul Society Housing Australia has filed plans for a major mixed-use housing precinct on the southern edge of the North Sydney CBD, adding another significant proposal to a pocket around North Sydn​ey Station that is quickly becoming one of the LGA's busiest development zones.

The State Significant Development Application covers a 5,990 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1-19-mackenzie-street-lavender-bay-nsw-2060">1-19 MacKenzie Street and 211 Blues Point Road in Lavender Bay</a>, immediately south of Nor​th Sydney Station and between the commercial core and the lower-rise Lavender Bay Heritage Conservation Area.

Designed by Wardle, the proposal would deliver a new residential tower comprising 88 build-to-sell apartments and 19 affordable apartments, alongside a separate co-living building with 57 rooms and a building manager's studio.

It would also see the significant restoration and upgrade of St Francis Xavier Catholic Church, the adaptive reuse of the former school building, new parish facilities, retail, a new public square and around 1,000 sqm of publicly accessible open space.

<img alt="Vinnies North Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d5dd7f87-a617-463e-b577-17541e01f0e9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.13%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4R8TsFN3P_LrrXO2HswTOIrx2blil8lh" />

The project is seeking a concurrent rezoning of the site to R4 High Density Residential and an increase in the maximum building height to allow a tower reaching RL120, or up to 20 storeys. The proposal was progressed through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

The build-to-sell component will be weighted toward larger apartments, with just six one-bedroom apartments compared with 31 two-beds, 43 three-beds and eight four-bedroom residences.

The 19 affordable apartments will comprise two studios, 15 one-bedroom apartments and two two-bedroom apartments, taking the total apartment component to 107 residences before the 58 co-living rooms are included.

<img alt="Vnnies" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7d568ca5-cb90-4e18-96c6-d9795dba0c56" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GY2R5M9VtQh0EKy1vajaea19PSLOPuRD" />

Wardle's design for the Vinnies site has sought to negotiate that emerging high-rise context while retaining the lower-scale character of MacKenzie Street and the adjoining heritage conservation area.

The main building adopts a three-storey podium and tower arrangement, with the podium aligned to the ridgeline and front setback of St Francis Xavier Church.&nbsp;Wardle has designed the podium with colonnades, seating, recessed entries and active ground-floor frontages, with sandstone-toned precast concrete and face brick referencing the materiality of the existing church.

The tower then steps back eight metres to the south and six metres to the north before rising in a sculpted form comprising four interlocking quadrants. Wardle has also introduced rounded forms and chamfered corners to reduce the tower's perceived bulk and improve view sharing with neighbouring development sites.

Resident facilities and outdoor areas are planned at the separation between the podium and tower at Level 3, oriented toward Sydney Harbour and the CBD skyline.

The tower itself will feature a glass reinforced concrete facade, with recessed balconies and deep reveals used both to provide shading and privacy and frame views toward the harbour and city. The lower levels take a different architectural approach, using brick and sandstone-toned finishes intended to establish a stronger relationship with St Francis Xavier Church. The Church itself will be conserved and upgraded for its continued use, while the former school building will be adaptively reused as part of the co-living component.

<img alt="Lavendar Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2d4418ad-90aa-4d49-af93-c80b140aea80" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.09.47%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Kv4gzbsACaGvZSRuaqcfGC54jEJRXIDJ" />

&nbsp;

The proposal adds to an increasingly concentrated pipeline of residential development around Blue Street, MacKenzie Street and Lavender Bay.

Just west of the site, Central Element lodged plans earlier this year for one of the most significant residential developments proposed in Lavender Bay in recent years.

Central Element's SJB-designed scheme at 64-66 Lavender Street and 3-7 Middlemiss Street would deliver 163 apartments across two towers rising 23 and 32 storeys, replacing five existing apartment buildings containing 32 homes. The project also forms part of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-central-element-reveals-lavender-bay-apartment-plans?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener" target="_blank">First look: Central Element reveals Lavender Bay apartment plans</a>

Immediately around North Sy​dney Station, another two significant proposals have emerged at 5 and 15 Blue Street.

Zurich Australian Insurance Properties is seeking to adaptively reuse its longstanding commercial building at 5 Blue Street, directly above North Sydney Station, rather than demolishing the structure.

Its SSDA proposes converting the building into a 14-storey mixed-use development with 62 apartments and 86 co-living rooms, together with ground-floor retail and a major refurbishment of Blue Street Plaza. The application is currently at the Response to Submissions stage.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-zurich-targets-north-sydney-office-conversion-with-148-unit-proposal-above-metro-station">First look: Zurich targets North Sydney office conversion with 148-unit proposal above Metro station</a>

&nbsp;

First look: Vinnies files for 20-storey Lavender Bay apartment tower as North Sydney housing pocket heats up

Terry Ryder

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The Perth market is an example of how misleading – and indeed worthless – are the price figures published by research firms and mindlessly recycled by media.
According to most of the generalised data (one figure to describe an entire large city), Perth prices are down – but an in-depth analysis shows there are growth markets sprouting across the Perth metro area.
Domain, the ABS, SQM Research and realestate.com.au report that Perth houses prices, in annual terms, are down by between 2.2% and 3.6%. CoreLogic, always the odd one out with more negative numbers, says Perth is down 7.6%.
But our suburb-by-suburb analysis shows that those generalised figures tell us nothing that’s useful. Against a background where most of the market data depicts recovery, 40% of Perth suburbs have median prices higher than a year ago.
Overall, the Perth market is the strongest it’s been since it lapsed into downturn five years ago (in general alignment with events in the resources sector). Vacancies are down (from 4.1% a year ago to 2.9% now, according to SQM), rents are rising again (according to most sources, including rent.com.au, SQM and the REIWA) and sales activity is up (there are more suburbs with rising buyer demand than at any time in the past five years). 
Recovery is under way – and this is starting to deliver price growth in some markets.
Our suburb-by-suburb analysis of 216 Perth markets shows that 85 have median prices higher than a year ago (58 have risen by less than 5% and 27 have risen 5% or more) and 131 suburbs have medians still lower than a year ago (72 are down by less than 5% and 59 have dropped 5% or more).
That means 40% of Perth suburbs have rising prices and 60% still have prices down.
Many of the locations with price growth are upmarket areas. Growth suburbs with median house prices above $1 million include Claremont (up 18%), Ardross (up 5%), East Fremantle (7%), Floreat (5%)_, Mosman Park (8%), South Perth (5%), Subiaco (7%) and West Leederville (10%). But the standout market is Mount Pleasant, where the median has risen 26% to $1.27 million in the past year.
Beyond the millionaire suburbs, growth markets include Brabham (up 21% to $395,000), Kensington (up 19% to $895,000) and West Perth (up 16% to $750,000).
There are also a number of suburbs which have recorded double-digit declines in their median prices. They are spread across the metropolitan area and the various price ranges, but a standout struggle market is the Kwinana LGA in the south, a noted affordable area for young buyers. Sales activity is down, against the general rising trend in Perth, in several Kwinana suburbs - and median prices are down in Bertram (7%), Leda (11%), Medina (6%), Orelia (17%) and Parmelia (10%). Most of these suburbs now have medians in the low-to-mid $200,000s, making it the cheapest precinct in the Perth market.
Overall, however, the data on prices across Perth is the most positive it has been in five years.
The outlook is even more optimistic when we examine sales activity. The number of suburbs with upwardly-mobile markets (53) is a record for Perth since we began our quarterly sales surveys four years ago.
The trend continues to be led by standout LGAs like Joondalup, Melville, Stirling and Wanneroo, with the Canning LGA emerging recently as a new growth contender.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Where the Perth property market is on the rise: Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Brisbane is like a car where the engine is revving but it can’t move forward because the handbrake is on. The city’s property market is poised for an up-cycle but, according to the generalised price data published in mainstream media, it’s not yet happening.
The key point for investors, however, is that there are many Brisbane markets achieving above-average price growth.
There’s no doubt that Brisbane real estate has an underlying strength and it continues to show gradual improvement in its market. It remains poised to deliver on the potential shown by advances in the economy, population trends (lots of Sydney refugees are escaping to affordable South-East Queensland) and infrastructure spending. 
The price data for the Greater Brisbane Area is noteworthy, because it shows that the generalised figures published in mainstream media are highly misleading. The latest figures from sources like SQM Research, Domain and CoreLogic have Brisbane houses showing little or no growth in the past year, but Hotspotting’s suburb-by-suburb analysis shows there are many out-performers.
We analysed 269 suburban markets, looking at the latest price figures showing quarterly and annual growth rates: 83 of them have recorded annual price growth above 5% (including 20 suburbs with double-digit growth) and another 100 have recorded growth below 5%; 47 have dropped by less than 5% and 39 have dropped more than 5%.
This means seven out of 10 suburban markets have median prices higher than a year ago – very different to the trend in Sydney which is dominating media coverage and causing careless analysts and writers to morph that into a national downturn.
Many of the Brisbane suburbs where the median house price has lifted more than 10% are higher-end markets, including Bardon (up 11% to $1,005,000), Hendra (up 13% to 1,100,000), Graceville (up 13% to $950,000), Kenmore Hills (up 10.5% to $900,000), Norman Park (up 10% to $950,000) and Paddington (up 11% to $1,165,000).
But the highest annual growth in median house prices has been recorded for Sandgate houses (up 19% to $755,000).
A key trend is that 27 or the 39 markets with prices down more than 5% are unit markets: median prices have dropped for apartments in Bowen Hills (20%), Bulimba (15%), East Brisbane (15%), Woodridge (10%), Greenslopes (11%), Hamilton (11%) and Woody Point (18%). 
This reflects the cold reality that the Brisbane unit market has been oversupplied for the past few years – and not just in the inner-city areas.
The Moreton Bay Region LGA has been the busiest market in Greater Brisbane for some time - and my latest survey of sales activity shows that the number of suburbs with rising demand has risen from 7 (six months ago) to 12 – making it one of the leading municipalities in the nation for growth markets.
Growth locations include Bray Park (median $435,000), where quarterly sales have been 37, 57, 62 and 65 in the past 12 months; Murrumba Downs ($540,000) where the sales pattern has been 50, 60, 58 and 68; and Everton Hills ($595,000), where sales have been 26, 39, 39 and 45. 
A number of Moreton Bay suburbs recorded good median price growth in the past 12 months, including Beachmere (up 10%), Sandstone Point (8%), Upper Caboolture (7.5%), Strathpine (10%), Burpengary East (up 9%) and numerous others which grew 5-6%.
The Brisbane-north precinct (the northern suburbs of the sprawling Brisbane City Council area) is now level with the Moreton Bay Region on growth markets (those where demand, as measured by sales volumes, is rising). 
With Moreton Bay Region and Brisbane-north the strongest market, it means the Brisbane market is strongest north of the Brisbane River (with more than half the rising suburbs in the Greater Brisbane area being in these two northside precincts).
A number of Brisbane-north suburbs recorded have good annual price growth, headed by Gordon Park (9%), Hendra (13%), Sandgate (19%), Newmarket (8%) and Nudgee (10%) – while many others have grown 5-6-7%.
These numbers, once again, show how misleading the generalised data is – and that investors need to dig a little deeper to find the growth markets. Brisbane - boosted by the affordability and rental yield comparisons with the biggest cities – has a lot more forward momentum than the media reports suggest.
Once the handbrake comes off (with the big banks starting to compete for business again and the Federal Election soon to be history), Brisbane will become a more obviously upwardly-mobile market.  
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
 
 
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Brisbane's out-performing real estate markets: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
While media obsesses over big city markets where prices are falling, the nation’s hottest markets keep flying under the radar screens of all but the best-informed investors.
I’ve written a lot about Regional Victoria, which I regard as the nation’s strongest market, in terms of both busy sales activity and big price increases, as well as affordable prices and good rental yields.
Most property watchers will be aware of the strength of markets like Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo, but new contenders keep popping up, many of them locations most people would know little about – or have never heard of.
During my most recent Live Q &amp; A on social media, someone asked what I thought about the market in Warburton (pictured top). I had to admit I knew little about the town. But something is happening in Warburton, up in the Yarra Ranges 70km east of central Melbourne. Its median price has risen 17% in the past year to reach $485,000.
Locations with those kind of growth numbers are the norm, not the exception, in Regional Victoria right now. And new ones keep emerging, replacing the early movers as market leaders.
This is because some of the state’s regional markets have passed their peaks. Geelong, for example, has been one of the nation’s most prolific markets in the past two years, but sales activity is no longer growing. It now has more plateau markets than rising ones. 
Other regions where demand has passed its peak (but price growth remains high) include the LGAs of Cardinia (Pakenham, Officer, Bunyip and Emerald), Baw Baw (Warragul, Drouin and Trafalgar), Surf Coast (Anglesea, Apollo Bay and Torquay), Bass Coast (Cowes, Inverloch and Wonthaggi) and Macedon Ranges (Gisborne, Kyneton, Romsey and Woodend).
But new growth markets continue to occur across Victoria. 
At Portland in the far south-west of the state, quarterly sales have been trending steadily upwards for the past two years. With a median house price of $235,000, affordability is a strong attraction, as well as the seaside lifestyle and the noted fishing resource.
Also in the south-west, there’s rising activity in Warrnambool, with median prices up 7% in Koroit and 5% in Warrnambool, while in nearby Port Fairy the median house price has risen 26% to $630,000.
In the Central Goldfields, quarterly sales in Maryborough have increased from 48 to 55 to 71 in the past year and its median house price has grown 18% to $230,000.
In the far east of the state, numerous locations have rising demand, including Bairnsdale and Lakes Entrance. The median price in Lakes Entrance has grown 13% to $325,000 in the past year, while Metung is up 7% to $375,000.
Other Regional Victoria markets with growing signs of uplift include Bright (up 17% to $575,000), Shepparton (up 5% to $275,000), Wangaratta (up 14% to $315,000) and Wodonga (up 3% to $350,000).
Another location that blipped on our radar screen recently, thanks to a client inquiry, is the town of Benalla, where the median house price has increased 10% in the past 12 months, but remains attractively cheap at $275,000. One of the big local drivers is a business which has won a major contract with Melbourne’s West Gate Tunnel project, creating 400 local jobs.
And then there’s Echuca. After watching this market chug along steadily for years, I’ve been forced to include it in the new edition of Top 5 Regional Victoria Hotspots - because, well, it can no longer be ignored.
Echuca is one of those strong regional centres which form the backbone of the nation in industries like agriculture, tourism and manufacturing – and while many people have heard of it, few have ever been there.
Hotspotting has often featured Echuca in The Price Predictor Index on the National Top 50 list of most consistent markets, as measured by quarterly sales volumes. Indeed, in one of our 2017 editions of the quarterly report, we named it the nation’s most consistent market.
And it keeps on keeping on, driven by a strong and diversified local economy, and steady growth. In the past 12 months, its median house price has lifted 16% to $365,000.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Real estate hotspots continue to emerge in regional Victoria: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER 
The many positive market indicators 
Here are some questions that go to the heart of how mainstream media reports residential property:- 
<ol class="ol1">
<li class="li3">Why does most of the media ignore the data from the ABS, realestate.com.au, Domain, SQM Research and the REIA? </li>
<li class="li3">Why are growth figures for Regional Australia markets seldom published? </li>
<li class="li3">Why are alternative measures of property markets - like vacancies, rents and land prices - seldom published? </li>
</ol>
The answer to all those questions is this: mainstream media is interested in negatives. They publish CoreLogic data because it’s the most pessimistic. Most other sources contradict CoreLogic figures, providing a different perspective on what’s truly happening in our markets. 
Mainstream media ignores Regional Australia because that’s where most of the big growth markets are – or because events outside of our major cities are deemed to be unimportant. 
Media seldom focuses on vacancies/rents because they tell a positive story. Vacancies are falling in most capital cities and rents are up in most city markets. 
According to recent price data published by Louis Christopher’s SQM Research, half of our capital city markets are up, compared with a year ago. In some cases, they are up only marginally, but they are up nevertheless. 
City markets with prices higher than a year ago are: 
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li3">Adelaide houses </li>
<li class="li3">Brisbane houses </li>
<li class="li3">Canberra houses </li>
<li class="li3">Canberra apartments </li>
<li class="li3">Darwin apartments </li>
<li class="li3">Hobart houses </li>
<li class="li3">Hobart apartments </li>
<li class="li3">Melbourne apartments </li>
</ul>
Most reports on prices exclude regional Australia, which means our most upbeat markets receive little or no airplay.
Regional Victoria is, I believe, the strongest market in the nation. Big price growth in being recorded in many of its markets, including Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo.
Pretty much everywhere in Regional Tasmania has rising prices. In Regional New South Wales, 85% of locations have rising prices, according to our recent location-by-location survey. 
Parts of Regional Queensland have strong growth markets – with the top end of the Sunshine Coast market, including the Noosa precinct, up more than 20% in annual terms (the median price for Sunshine Beach has risen 36% in the past year).
This contradicts constant media claims that prices are falling across Australia. 
The situation is even more positive with the rental markets of the capital cities. 
Of the 16 capital city markets (each city has a house market and a unit market), 12 have rents higher than a year ago. Only four markets, those in Sydney and Darwin, have rents in decline, according to the SQM Research figures. The latest numbers from rent.com.au have similar conclusions. 
This reflects vacancy rate figures, which show that most of our major cities have vacancy rates lower than a year ago, with four of them - Melbourne, Canberra, Hobart and Adelaide - having vacancies below 1.8%. The capital city average is a little above 2%. 
Equally, the ongoing rise in residential land prices in our major cities receives little coverage in mainstream media. If it’s not negative, they’re not interested. 
Research shows that most households with mortgages are comfortably handling their repayments. There’s positive news on affordability from our biggest cities. There are growing signs that banks are moving to make borrowing easier. 
If journalists had a different mindset, they could be writing upbeat articles – rather than afflicting consumers with relentless negativity designed to generate clickbait headlines.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Mainstream media only interested in the negatives of property: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
We don’t often get sensible analysis of price data from economists - mostly they generalise about “the Australian property market” - but Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan provides an exception.
In a recent article he notes that some sections of the Melbourne market are still strong and that Regional Victoria has many locations with rising prices. 
This correlates with recent Hotspotting research revealing that the cheaper areas of Melbourne still have strong prices while Regional Victoria is the most buoyant market in the nation.
Hassan says Melbourne’s overall price correction “has shown much bigger differences across segments and tiers” than has Sydney. 
“For Melbourne, units and bottom tier areas are holding up much better,” he says, noting that prices across the bottom 25% of the market remain resilient.
“This theme is also apparent across sub-regions. The big movers over the second half of 2018 were Melbourne’s Inner East and Inner South, with the Inner City and West holding up considerably better. 
“Prices are also performing better across Regional Victoria.”
Hassan says that, overall, the city’s rental market remains tight with vacancy rates holding around 2%.
“Meanwhile, rental vacancy rates are extremely tight across Victoria’s regions, having fallen from 2% in late 2017 to just 1.2% in early 2019,” he says. “This in turn suggests the uneven performance is likely to continue.”
Hotspotting’s regular nationwide research into sales activity and price movements has identified numerous growth markets in Regional Victoria.
They include Geelong (above), Ballarat, Bendigo, Pakenham, Officer and Warragul, as well as many smaller towns within an hour or so of Melbourne.
The Price Predictor Index published by Hotspotting ranks Regional Victoria as the No.1 market in Australia for strong sales activity and rising prices.
It has also identified growth markets in the Melbourne metropolitan area.
The generalised data on prices - i.e. one growth figure for the entire nation or for a major city - has Melbourne house prices down, although how much they’ve fallen depends on whose figures you believe. 
One major data source has the Melbourne median house price rising slightly in 2018, while others say it fell 2% or 3%, the latest figure from the ABS says 6% and CoreLogic (which usually has the most negative figures) says Melbourne is down 11%.
These sources have one thing in common: they generalise about very large areas. They lump all of Greater Melbourne, which has 500 suburbs as diverse as Toorak and Epping, into one melting pot, with one figure to describe the whole market. 
But Melbourne has many different scenarios in play, including precincts where prices are still rising. Hotspotting’s suburb-by-suburb analysis shows many of the outer-ring areas still have price growth.
This is confirmed by new data on the suburbs of the Melton LGA in Melbourne’s west. Most Melton suburbs have had annual price growth above 13%.
Melton’s median sits at $410,000 (up 14.5%) while Melton South is $411,750 (up 15.7%), Kurunjang $432,000 (up 19.5%) and Melton West $450,000 (up 13.9%).
The figures confirm that investors who are able to ignore media generalisations and do some real research will have little trouble finding strong markets where prices are growing.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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The property markets that are thriving in Victoria: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The vast majority of NSW Regional markets have price levels higher than 12 months ago – 85% of the locations in our latest survey have recorded growth in the past year.
Hotspotting has surveyed 303 significant markets across the state outside of Sydney (we exclude small markets with fewer than 30 sales in a year, as small sales samples provided distorted medians and unreliable figures on growth or decline). 
Of these, 171 (56%) have recorded median price growth above 5% and a further 88 (29%) have had growth between 1% and 5%.
The 171 locations with growth above 5% included 78 places which had double-digit price growth in the past 12 months.
It provides quite a stark contrast to the trends in Sydney.
Our survey reveals only 11 Regional NSW locations where prices have dropped by more than 5% and another 33 where prices have fallen marginally (between 1% and 5%).
The regional growth has been led by 14 markets with growth of 20% or more: 
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1">Ballina units (up 21%), </li>
<li class="li1">Berry houses (up 36%), </li>
<li class="li1">Broken Hill houses (up 21%), </li>
<li class="li1">Casino units (up 31%), </li>
<li class="li1">Casuarina houses (up 20%), </li>
<li class="li1">Crestwood houses (up 25%),</li>
<li class="li1">Moruya houses (up 23%), </li>
<li class="li1">Sawtell units (up 21%), </li>
<li class="li1">Catalina houses (up 20%), </li>
<li class="li1">Shelly Beach houses (up 29%), </li>
<li class="li1">Wangi Wangi houses (up 40%), </li>
<li class="li1">Uranga houses (up 21%), </li>
<li class="li1">Tura Beach units (up 26%), and </li>
<li class="li1">Taree units (up 20%).</li>
</ul>
The Newcastle region (above) continues to be strong on price growth. The LGAs of Newcastle, Lake Macquarie and Port Stephens all have multiple suburbs with solid to strong median price growth in the past year.
Lake Macquarie markets with rising prices include Belmont, Belmont North, Cardiff, Cardiff South, Caves Beach, Edgeworth, Macquarie Hills, Speers Point, Swansea, Wangi Wangi and Warners Bay.
Other precincts with significant numbers of locations with solid-to-strong price growth include the Central Coast, the Tweed region, Byron Bay and Ballina.
In terms of locations with rising demand, as measured by quarterly sales activity, this Autumn 2019 survey has found 61 Regional NSW locations with markets trending upwards, up from 53 in the Summer 2019 survey but down on the 70 rising markets identified in the Spring 2018 analysis.
There are new growth leaders revealed in this survey: the Lake Macquarie LGA beside Newcastle has six rising markets while the Wagga Wagga LGA has five.
As we have recorded in previous reports, the Hunter Region is a growth market – the LGAs of Maitland, Cessnock, Singleton, Muswellbrook and Upper Hunter (Scone) all present markets where buyer demand is trending higher.
Other centres where markets are busy include the municipalities of Queanbeyan-Palerang, Albury, Ballina, Bathurst, Tamworth and Armidale. Smaller centres with momentum include Parkes, Kyogle, Kempsey, Mudgee, Griffith, Glen Innes, Forbes, Cootamundra , Young and Broken Hill.
A number of major markets that were previously leaders in Regional NSW are now showing signs of having passed their peaks in terms of sales demand, although several of these continue to deliver good price growth.
The Central Coast still has a small number of growth suburbs, but a much greater number of plateau markets – and now there are four we have classified as declining markets. 
This market is perhaps more influenced by Sydney than most in the Regional NSW and the level of sales activity has declined recently – although some locations still have price levels well above those of a year ago, including Shelly Beach (29%), Ettalong Beach (17%), Halekulani (11%), Saratoga (11%) and Wamberal (13%).
Newcastle still has four suburbs classified as rising markets, but many more than are plateau or consistency markets. There are similar trends with Wollongong, Shoalhaven, Shellharbour, the Southern Highlands and the Blue Mountains – notably, most of them places quite close to Sydney.
While our survey found only 11 Regional NSW markets with median prices down more than 5% in the past year, five of them were in the Wollongong LGA, providing further evidence that this previously strong market is now past its peak.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Regional New South Wales continues to see property price growth: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Investors will be piling into the Adelaide market – just as soon as they read somewhere that there’s a boom in the South Australia capital.
But not before. The only constant in the residential property market is that the herd mentality drives the actions of buyers and sellers. 
Adelaide right now is a strong value-for-money proposition, with one of the steadiest and most consistent markets in capital city Australia, underpinned by an economy that the experts have recognised as one of the nation’s best.
But investors generally refuse to consider it. Adelaide flies under the radar screen, with many people clinging to the outdated notion that Adelaide and SA is a low-growth sort of place.
But the experts know better. Here’s a snapshot of what some have said recently:
“South Australia’s economy was the standout of all states and territories in the last three months of 2018, with strong house prices and positive employment momentum boding well for the future.” – ANZ Stateometer report
"Residential property capital values in South Australia had their fastest rise for six years in the last financial year." - SA Property Landscape report from Land Services SA
"Business confidence in SA is now at levels not seen in more than 10 years." - Business SA-William Buck Survey of Business Expectations
"South Australia remains home to the most confident property sector in the country,  buoyed by tax cuts and positive economic announcements. It is the fourth consecutive quarter that confidence in the state's property industry has topped the country." - ANZ / Property Council Survey's Statewide Index
"All the economic indicators are suggesting that Adelaide is going to experience a very buoyant 2019." - Broadway Property director Ben Heritage
"Price Growth Reaches 6 Year High in Sleeper State" - Smart Property Investment magazine
"Adelaide Median House Value Soars To Record High, Defying Downturn In Other Capital Cities." - The Advertiser
"Adelaide Housing Market Forecast To See Steady Growth." - Moody Analytics
"The two key measures of the SA economy - how much production in the state and  how much spending in the state - are both accelerating." - Chris Richardson, Deloitte Access Economics
"Elon Musk’s Tesla is aiming to more than double its battery rollouts during 2019, saying its huge Hornsdale battery in SA has become an important calling card that's attracting bigger projects." - The Australian
"Technicolor's Move To Adelaide Will Generate 400 Jobs and Boost CBD Living and Lifestyle." - The Advertiser
Against that background of economic and property performance, Adelaide is one of Australia’s most consistent markets, a status it has maintained over the past 12 months. It remains the busiest market in capital city Australia and one that is forecast by several analysts to be a national leader on price growth in 2019 and beyond.
SA, dominated by Adelaide, has impressed with its steady performance in the past five years. Each of the past 20 quarters has recorded between 8,000 and 9,500 dwelling sales. Adelaide continues to record high numbers of suburbs with growing sales demand, well above the levels seen in most of the capital cities.
This has produced multiple years of steady price growth, without generating a price boom – yet.
While sources such as CoreLogic and SQM Research report annual growth of only a few percent in Adelaide house prices overall, these generalised figures disguise individual areas which have done better.
It’s noteworthy that many of the millionaire suburbs have recorded big growth in their median prices in past 12 months. Uplift in the premium market is often an early signal of a market upcycle.
The growth is not all confined to the top end: there are suburbs with growth above 10% spread across all price ranges. This reinforces the reality that out-performing areas can be found even when the overall market appears to be moderate.
Adelaide has a broad geographical spread of LGAs with good numbers of growth markets. There are seven municipalities which have five or more suburbs with rising sales trajectories leading to price growth. This means there is growth momentum across the metropolitan area.
The leading precinct, with 12 growth suburbs (which makes it a nation-leading market), is Port Adelaide Enfield - which is likely to attract growing interest as the massive project to build Navy vessels unfolds.
The Marion LGA, a middle-market area in the south-west of Adelaide, has been a market leader for the past 12-18 months and continues to be.
A new challenger in Adelaide is the West Torrens LGA, which is situated between the CBD and the beaches – and offers wonderful value for money, relative to its location. Most suburbs have median house prices in the $500000s.
Another contender is the Tea Tree Gully LGA, which offers a good location relative to major jobs nodes and the Adelaide CBD, good local infrastructure and a high level of housing affordability. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Adelaide flies under the radar as one of our strongest capital city property markets: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The property markets of Hobart and Tasmania lead the nation. Homes sell faster here than anywhere else in Australia and there are locations with double-digit annual price growth throughout the state. 
The key drivers are a strong state economy and affordable prices. Research from realestate.com.au indicates that buyers out of Melbourne are providing a lot of impetus to Tasmanian markets.
The number of growth locations (those where demand, as measured by sales volumes, is rising), is lower than the peak but remains strong and steady.
The outstanding feature of Tasmania’s markets is the strength of prices. Virtually every location of substance across the state has recorded annual price growth above 5% in the past year, and most have delivered better than 10%. It’s almost impossible to find a market where the median price has dropped – and in this regard Tasmania is probably unique in Australia. 
In conducting our quarterly location-by-location research on demand levels across Australia, Hotspotting also examines patterns with prices. We record suburbs and towns where the median price has increased more than 5% in the past year, those which have grown between 1% and 5%, and those where prices have declined more than 5%. (We disregard locations with fewer than 30 annual sales, because the sales sample is too small to provide accurate and meaningful price trends.)
In Hobart, we can find no suburbs with falling prices and none with minor growth. All have increased by more than 5% in the past 12 months – and 80% of them are up at least 10%. A key feature is most have recorded rises in the latest quarter, which indicates prices are still growing.
The standout markets have grown more than 20%, including the house markets in Bellerive (21%), Carlton (22%), Gagebrook (22%), Howrah (23%), Moonah (20%), Risdon Vale (26%) and Warrane (21%)
The Bellerive and West Moonah unit markets are both up 29%.
But the leading markets on price growth are Clarendon Vale houses and Lindisfarne units, both up 32%.
A standout precinct in the Hobart metro area is the Clarence LGA, where Bellerive, Clarendon Vale, Geilston Bay, Howrah, Lauderdale, Lindisfarne, Oakdowns, Risdon Vale, Rokeby and Warrane have all recorded double-digit growth in their median prices.
Our Autumn survey for The Price Predictor Index, like the previous Summer survey, provides further evidence that the Hobart market is beyond its peak in terms of sales demand. In early 2018 we saw the first hint of a moderation in sales activity in Hobart and this was confirmed by later reports. But the drop in demand has been gradual, there are still growth markets, and prices continue to rise.
The Clarence, Glenorchy, Kingborough and Sorell LGAs all have growth suburbs, but they are outnumbered by plateau markets (those where sales demand has settled on solid levels but below the peak). 
The suburb of Rokeby in the Clarence LGA has recorded quarterly sales of 17, 22, 22, 26 and 29 – and its median price has risen 12% to $285,000 in the past 12 months. 
The Brighton LGA on the northern fringe of Hobart is a growth market, both in terms of rising demand and rising prices. In the suburb of Bridgewater, quarterly sales have been 14, 15, 22, 18, 26, 34 and 31 – and the median house price has increased 15% to $235,000 in the past year.
It’s clear from these figures that the locations with the strongest growth dynamics are mainly the ones that offer affordability.
Regional Tasmania is further back in the cycle than Hobart and continues to show strong activity and rising prices. 
Launceston and neighbouring LGAs like West Tamar and Meander Valley have multiple suburbs with rising demand, including Kings Meadows, Norwood, Prospect, South Launceston, Waverley, Hadspen and Riverside. 
This precinct is also delivering rising prices. Suburbs with double-digit annual growth in house prices include Hadspen, Invermay, Kings Meadow, Mowbray, Newnham, Prospect, Ravenswood, South Launceston, Summerhill, Waverley and West Launceston. Two unit markets with notable growth include Newnham (up 27% to $220,000) and Riverside (up 27% to $325,000).
Many of these suburbs have median house prices below $300,000 and others are in the mid low-$300,000s, continuing the state-wide theme of growth in affordable markets. 
But the Tasmanian location with the strongest growth is the town of Richmond, about 25km north-east of Hobart. Its median house price is up 44% to $630,000, but based on a smallish sample of 34 sales in the past year.
Another town just outside Hobart which is doing well is New Norfolk. Sales demand is rising here and median prices are up 18% to $245,000 for houses and 12% to $225,000 for units. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Nowhere in Tasmania has seen less than 5% property price growth in 12 months: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Some economists are concerned about the “wealth effect” of falling property prices. They need not be concerned about that. 
What should concern them is their disturbing lack of knowledge about residential real estate markets. They have misunderstood what’s happening with prices in the many different markets around Australia.
Bill Evans, high-profile economist from Westpac, is one of those who think “falling property prices” will affect consumer spending. He thinks the Reserve Bank will be forced to cut the official interest rate a couple of times this year because of this hypothetical impact of falling property prices.
Mainstream media, as if so often sadly the case, have given great credibility to these forecasts. Journalists have forgotten that Westpac, until last week, was predicting that the cash rate would not change this year and that the next move would be a rise. Now they’ve back-flipped. What does that say about their forecasting?
But the big issue is the lack of understanding about real estate markets. Like most economists, Evans and his cohorts turn their attention to residential property only occasionally, and, when they do, they generalise. They talk about “the Australian property market” and what’s happening with “Australian property prices”. This is a clue that they lack depth of knowledge.
This kind of generalisation is the curse of real estate consumers across the nation. It’s the source of much of the misinformation that permeates mainstream media and which confounds consumers.
Here’s the difference between those Westpac economists and the Hotspotting team: we spend all day, every day, researching residential markets. They do not.
And here’s what I know to be true: locations where property prices have fallen a lot are in the minority. Most markets around the nation have prices that are rising or are holding firm. 
In Hotspotting’s latest location-by-location analysis of sales activity and prices for every suburb and town across the nation, we have identified a number of “danger” markets – those where demand is falling, prices are down and vacancies are rising.
But these danger locations are greatly outnumbered by those where markets are rising. Our national survey finds only 8.5% of locations are negative – what we classify as “declining” or “danger” markets. By comparison, 20.5% of locations are strongly rising. The vast majority – the big lump in the middle – comprises markets where demand is steady and prices solid.
Here's what economists do: they look at a graph or table which describes “Australian property prices”. This is a figure from someone like CoreLogic which provides an average figure for the change in prices for the capital cities. Currently that’s a minus figure because of the weight of Sydney. So they declare that Australian property prices are falling and that this is a national problem.
Apparently, Australians will be so distressed by this that they’ll stop spending in supermarkets and retail stores. It’s a ludicrous proposition.
In Melbourne, only the top end of the market is sharply down. Undoubtedly, the Tooraks of this world have seen prices falling significantly. But Middle Melbourne is remaining very solid price-wise and the cheaper outer-ring suburbs still have rising prices. Most of the suburbs of humble Melton are up by more than 20%.
That’s why most research sources (not including CoreLogic) have Melbourne prices overall down only moderately or, in one case, slightly up.
Meanwhile, Regional Victoria is going ballistic. Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Pakenham, Officer, Warragul and dozens of other regional cities and towns have rising demand and very strong prices.
Hobart prices are still rising and Regional Tasmania is as buoyant as Regional Victoria. Both those regional markets are being supercharged by demand out of Melbourne.
Canberra is rock solid. As I wrote last week, it’s the strongest real estate economy in the nation and it’s doing the opposite to struggling Sydney.
Likewise, Regional NSW. There are growth markets spread right throughout the state. Newcastle and neighbouring LGAs like Lake Macquarie, Port Stephens and the Hunter Region municipalities have formed the strongest market in NSW in the past 12months.
Other important regional centres are rising, including Orange, Tamworth, Byron Bay, Dubbo and many of the smaller towns. Overall it’s a story of growth, in defiance of the Sydney trend.
Those past their best but still solid include Wollongong, Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie and the towns of the Southern Highlands.
Brisbane overall is not rising strongly with prices, but it’s not falling either – and individual pockets are out-performing. It’s not hard to find suburbs where median prices have risen in double digits in the past year.
The Sunshine Coast is Queensland’s strongest market, with top-end suburbs around Noosa particularly buoyant.
Central Queensland locations are recovering from the previous malaise induced by the mining sector, led by the strategic city of Mackay. Others rising from the previous downturn include Emerald, Rockhampton, Dalby, Chinchilla, Moranbah – and we’re now seeing the first evidence of recovery in Gladstone.
Key regional cities like Toowoomba and Cairns have steady markets. Only time will reveal the real estate impacts from Townsville’s floods.
Adelaide is one of the really solid markets in capital city Australia. Demand is steadily rising and, like Brisbane, the city has individual pockets that are out-performing. There’s no sign of falling values here.
Perth has been in downturn for the past four years, but no longer. All the figures show recovery is under way – vacancies down, rents starting to rise, sales activity trending up and the top-end suburbs showing good price growth.
The only markets of significance where major price decline is prevalent are Sydney and Darwin.
Darwin just can’t escape its malaise because the underlying economy is so weak. The Northern Territory is the only state or territory which failed to deliver population growth last year.
Sydney’s situation is heavily documented but very poorly reported. There are plenty of declining markets and more than a few danger ones. But there are still many markets where demand is solid and prices are resilient.
One situation that media has completely overlooked is the defiant performance of the apartment market. Sydney’s gradual decline, which started back in 2016 long before the royal commission and other distractions that economists think important, was precipitated by the market’s reaction of price levels. Affordability became an issue at all levels of the market. 
So now we have a situation where the cheaper products like apartments are still attracting demand and achieving good prices. Throughout inner and middle ring Sydney, there are many dozens of suburbs where the median house price is sharply down but the median apartment price is strongly up.
So where are all these Australians who are so afflicted by falling property prices that they’re going to hide their money under their beds and not spent. Outside of Sydney (but not all of Sydney) and Darwin, they really don’t exist.
And this is reflected in multiple surveys. The latest Westpac poll shows consumer confidence is up and is specifically not affected by all the negative media about house prices. The ME survey indicated most Australians expect house prices to stay solid or to rise this year and the Momentum Wealth survey found investors are planning to buy, with Perth and Brisbane their No.1 targets.
I think these thoughts from veteran real estate analyst Michael Matusik are also relevant: “It is somewhat sobering to find that the majority aren’t that caught up in all the incessant real estate chat. To most a house is their home and not something that needs a lot of day-to-day analysis or comment. The majority just roll their eyes at the daily house price indices. I am in that crowd.”
I, too, am in that crowd. The media and economists like Bill Evans misinterpret and over-estimate the impact of recent price decline on a relatively small number of Australians.
For most of us, a falling property market is simply not part of our day.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Westpac economist Bill Evans has the property market decline wrong: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
This week I’m speaking at a seminar for real estate consumers in Canberra to talk about opportunities in the national capital.
I’ve just completed a suburb-by-suburb analysis on Canberra for the Price Predictor Index and have found that this market is strengthening. 
I’ve examined price data since the start of this century and I note that while Canberra is only a short distance from Sydney, usually its property market is doing something quite different to Sydney’s.
Canberra didn’t follow Sydney into a major property boom and now that Sydney is falling, Canberra is steadily on the rise. This, my research tells me, is situation normal.
Right now, Canberra has more growth markets than at any time since Hotspotting began its quarterly location-by-location surveys four years ago. The norm now in Canberra is suburbs where median prices have grown by more than 5% in the past 12 months, while only a handful have falling prices.
In this latest survey, I’ve have identified 26 suburbs where demand is rising, as well as 37 others where demand is steady and consistent. Unlike Sydney, the Canberra market has no suburbs classified as declining markets or as danger markets.
It is undoubtedly one of the steadiest markets in the nation. Indeed, I regard Canberra as the strongest real estate economy in capital city Australia. 
The ACT is consistently ranked No.3 by CommSec in its quarterly State of the States report, which means that as an economy it ranks ahead of all states/territories except Victoria and NSW. It ranks first in several areas, including dwelling construction and housing finance. 
The latest ABS data shows the ACT ranks first in the nation on population (jointly with Victoria), rising 2.2% in FY2018. Vacancies are around 0.9% (only Hobart has lower vacancies among the capital cities), rents are rising faster than anywhere else and there is evidence of solid price growth. Many suburbs have recorded double-digit growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months and others have grown 7-8-9%.
Some of the recent forecasts from credible analysts suggest Canberra will lead the capital cities on property price growth. Moody’s Analytics, for example, is predicting solid price growth for Canberra this year and in 2020, both for houses and for apartments.
The results of our Autumn 2019 survey support that optimism. Since the start of 2015, demand has been trending upwards in Canberra. It hasn’t been a dramatic rise but over four years the graph depicting demand in the market has trended north – to the point where there is now a record number of suburbs with rising sales activity.
And the price data supports that. Our suburb-by-suburb analysis has identified 31 suburbs where median prices have risen by at least 5% in the past 12 months, and 22 others where prices are growing but by less than 5%. But there are only six suburbs where median prices have fallen by more than 5%.
There are 13 suburbs which have recorded double-digit growth in their median prices and these market leaders are spread across the Canberra metro area. 
But the Inner North precinct is the market leader on price growth. The median house price for Ainslie is up 34%, the median unit price for Watson has risen 30%, the unit median for Dickson is up 21%, while the median house price for O’Connor is up 20%.
The upper end of the Canberra market is going well. Markets with double-digit price growth in the past 12 months include Ainslie (up 34%), Dickson (up 10%), Garran (up 13%), Lyons (up 10%) and O’Connor (up 20%) – all suburbs with median house prices above $850,000. Suburbs in that market with price rises between 5% and 10% include Curtin, Deakin, Hughes, Narrabunda and Nicholls. 
In terms of sales activity, strong markets are found right across the ACT. As we often find, the strongest demand is in the northern suburbs, with Belconnen the leading district with six growth suburbs, followed closely by nearby Gungahlin which has five suburbs with rising demand.
 
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Terry Ryder

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