&nbsp;

Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.

The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.

The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.

The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]

Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.

Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.

Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]

Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.

“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.

“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”

“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.” 
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]

The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.

Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.

The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.

The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]

Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.

“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.

“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”

A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.

That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.

The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]

According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.

Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.

The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.

The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.

That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.

The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]

The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.

“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.

“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”

The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]

Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Joel Robinson

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.

The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.

Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]

Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.

Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.

“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.

He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.

“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.

“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.

Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.

Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.

Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.

The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]

Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more internation and domestic flights.

Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.

Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.

The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.

The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" />

According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”

The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.

The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.

Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.

“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.

The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.

The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" />

The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.

“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.

According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.

“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.

“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”

The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.

Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.

&nbsp;

The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" />

St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.

Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.

The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.

More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.

First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-5" data-turn="user" data-turn-id="e65dbe94-e3b6-47f7-b62a-9cbb30c9bf79" data-turn-id-container="e65dbe94-e3b6-47f7-b62a-9cbb30c9bf79" dir="auto">Time &amp; Place’s plans to transform the former David Jones factory building in Surry Hills into a mixed-use residential precinct have gone on exhibition through the NSW Government’s In-fill Affordable Housing pathway.</section>

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-6" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:f4d533b7-64a5-413d-86fd-5c99649c2b73-2" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:f4d533b7-64a5-413d-86fd-5c99649c2b73-2" dir="auto">
The Marlborough House proposal, lodged for the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marlborough-house-47-97-marlborough-street-surry-hills-nsw-2010">47-97 Marlborough Street</a> site, would see the adaptive reuse of the heritage-listed warehouse building alongside the construction of new residential additions and a separate apartment building on the northern portion of the site.

The proposal seeks approval for 172 apartments across three buildings, including 15 per cent affordable housing managed by a community housing provider for at least 15 years from occupation.

<img alt="Marlborough" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5d1d3c2a-bf13-47d6-a335-7c01102cdee1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.36%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=cjMYrbR.BLUlWH4dar0RVDDo0bG.u2YT" />

Interior view from the Northern Building Penthouse overlooking the park

&nbsp;

The redevelopment is planned for the prominent 3,413 sqm site bounded by Marlborough Street, Goodlet Street and Lansdowne Street, directly opposite Eddie Ward Park and around 200 metres from the Surry Hills light rail stop.

Time &amp; Place acquired the former David Jones building in 2024, marking the first time the property had changed hands in around 50 years.

Designed by Wardle, the proposal centres around the adaptive reuse of the former David Jones factory, originally constructed between 1913 and 1935 in the Inter-War Chicagoesque architectural style.

Wardle noted in its Architectural Design Report that the building “occupies a significant place in the industrial and cultural history of Surry Hills” and at its peak was “the largest department store manufacturing facility in Australia, employing over 800 people and fuelling the growth of Sydney’s fashion and retail industries.”

The practice said the project positions itself “not as an isolated intervention, but as a contributor to the civic, social, and architectural grain of the precinct.”

The proposal would deliver 75 apartments within the retained southern heritage building, 59 apartments within the central addition, and a further 38 apartments within the new northern building fronting Lansdowne Street.

Planning documents show the scheme would comprise a mix of heritage apartments, new-build apartments, townhouses and penthouses.

<img alt="Marlborough" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="57758518-40a3-4b83-958c-d06e96a2cffa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.42%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VerlX9ST5xgBi8.1_YRsqdWTJeT6ygjs" />Interior View of the Heritage Building Apartment

The development would also include a ground-floor retail tenancy on the corner of Marlborough and Lansdowne streets, rooftop communal open space, a landscaped pedestrian link along the western edge of the site, and basement parking accessed from Lansdowne Street via a car stacker system.

&nbsp;

The scheme emerged from a competitive design process run by Urbis, with Wardle ultimately selected as the winning architect ahead of FJC Studio, TZG, Architectus and Wilkinson Eyre.

The Design Integrity Panel later described several aspects of the Wardle scheme as fundamental to the project, including “the stepped character of the new addition to the north of the site”, the landscaped western pedestrian link, and the “garden arrival” experience separating the original Marlborough House from the heritage addition.

Wardle’s design heavily references the site’s industrial and heritage history, while also responding to the surrounding Surry Hills streetscape.

The Architectural Design Report describes Surry Hills as “a finely grained neighbourhood with beautiful and expressive brickworks throughout the suburb,” with the proposal introducing a material palette intended to sit comfortably alongside the existing warehouse fabric and neighbouring terraces.

The report also outlines the project’s relationship with Eddie Ward Park and the broader landscape context of the area.

“Marlborough House occupies a site of deep cultural memory and the neighbouring Eddie Ward Park is of local ecological significance, where natural systems, topography, and stories have long shaped human experience,” Wardle noted in the report.

The architects said the proposal sought to “rebind built form to Country” through landscape, materiality and the adaptive reuse of the heritage structure.

<img alt="Marlborough House" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9ae3f2f9-c85f-477a-a6f8-b43f6cb97c41" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.53%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=B.qUCLqRvJOR.n9CvYcTpaknIX9LuqKZ" />

The project is also being progressed under the NSW Government’s in-fill affordable housing provisions, allowing developments that include affordable housing to access additional height and floor space incentives.

Under the plans, 2,593 sqm of the project’s floor space would be dedicated to affordable housing, slightly exceeding the required 15 per cent threshold.

In its Design Excellence Strategy, Urbis said the project aimed to “sensitively adapt and enhance the heritage-listed building on site through alterations and additions that preserve its historical significance” while delivering “high-quality market and infill affordable housing development in Surry Hills.”

Time &amp; Place has been one of the most active developers nationally in the last 12 to 24 months. Late last year they completed&nbsp;The Queensbridge in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/southbank-vic-3006">Southbank</a>, a mixed-use tower with 353 apartments and a hotel. They are currently selling Park Modern, 246 apartments near the famous Botanic Gardens in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/south-melbourne-vic-3205">South Melbourne</a>, and have future projects, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-wilmot-173-burke-road-28-hope-street-glen-iris-vic-3146">The Wilmot</a>&nbsp;in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>, the redevelopment of the Northcote Plaza, and another tower in South Melbourne.

The developer broke into Sydney just a few years ago with Two Tides in Manly. They have another project nearby, which is at the ultra-luxury end of the market on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/shoreline-manly-beach-89-90-north-steyne-manly">North Steyne</a>, fronting the beach.

It is also continuing to work through the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-time-place-settles-on-design-for-the-chimes-potts-point-redevelopment">redevelopment of The Chimes building</a> on Macleay Street in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/potts-point-nsw-2011">Potts Point</a>, as well as a project on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/time-place-to-take-on-mosman-apartment-market">Mosman's Redan Street</a>.
</section>

First look: Time & Place unveils Marlborough House redevelopment designs for former David Jones warehouse in Surry Hills

The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.

Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.

The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.

The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.

Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.

The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.

The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.

Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.

Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.

The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.

Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.

Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

Terry Ryder

<html><body>
The Perth market is an example of how misleading – and indeed worthless – are the price figures published by research firms and mindlessly recycled by media.
According to most of the generalised data (one figure to describe an entire large city), Perth prices are down – but an in-depth analysis shows there are growth markets sprouting across the Perth metro area.
Domain, the ABS, SQM Research and realestate.com.au report that Perth houses prices, in annual terms, are down by between 2.2% and 3.6%. CoreLogic, always the odd one out with more negative numbers, says Perth is down 7.6%.
But our suburb-by-suburb analysis shows that those generalised figures tell us nothing that’s useful. Against a background where most of the market data depicts recovery, 40% of Perth suburbs have median prices higher than a year ago.
Overall, the Perth market is the strongest it’s been since it lapsed into downturn five years ago (in general alignment with events in the resources sector). Vacancies are down (from 4.1% a year ago to 2.9% now, according to SQM), rents are rising again (according to most sources, including rent.com.au, SQM and the REIWA) and sales activity is up (there are more suburbs with rising buyer demand than at any time in the past five years). 
Recovery is under way – and this is starting to deliver price growth in some markets.
Our suburb-by-suburb analysis of 216 Perth markets shows that 85 have median prices higher than a year ago (58 have risen by less than 5% and 27 have risen 5% or more) and 131 suburbs have medians still lower than a year ago (72 are down by less than 5% and 59 have dropped 5% or more).
That means 40% of Perth suburbs have rising prices and 60% still have prices down.
Many of the locations with price growth are upmarket areas. Growth suburbs with median house prices above $1 million include Claremont (up 18%), Ardross (up 5%), East Fremantle (7%), Floreat (5%)_, Mosman Park (8%), South Perth (5%), Subiaco (7%) and West Leederville (10%). But the standout market is Mount Pleasant, where the median has risen 26% to $1.27 million in the past year.
Beyond the millionaire suburbs, growth markets include Brabham (up 21% to $395,000), Kensington (up 19% to $895,000) and West Perth (up 16% to $750,000).
There are also a number of suburbs which have recorded double-digit declines in their median prices. They are spread across the metropolitan area and the various price ranges, but a standout struggle market is the Kwinana LGA in the south, a noted affordable area for young buyers. Sales activity is down, against the general rising trend in Perth, in several Kwinana suburbs - and median prices are down in Bertram (7%), Leda (11%), Medina (6%), Orelia (17%) and Parmelia (10%). Most of these suburbs now have medians in the low-to-mid $200,000s, making it the cheapest precinct in the Perth market.
Overall, however, the data on prices across Perth is the most positive it has been in five years.
The outlook is even more optimistic when we examine sales activity. The number of suburbs with upwardly-mobile markets (53) is a record for Perth since we began our quarterly sales surveys four years ago.
The trend continues to be led by standout LGAs like Joondalup, Melville, Stirling and Wanneroo, with the Canning LGA emerging recently as a new growth contender.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Where the Perth property market is on the rise: Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Brisbane is like a car where the engine is revving but it can’t move forward because the handbrake is on. The city’s property market is poised for an up-cycle but, according to the generalised price data published in mainstream media, it’s not yet happening.
The key point for investors, however, is that there are many Brisbane markets achieving above-average price growth.
There’s no doubt that Brisbane real estate has an underlying strength and it continues to show gradual improvement in its market. It remains poised to deliver on the potential shown by advances in the economy, population trends (lots of Sydney refugees are escaping to affordable South-East Queensland) and infrastructure spending. 
The price data for the Greater Brisbane Area is noteworthy, because it shows that the generalised figures published in mainstream media are highly misleading. The latest figures from sources like SQM Research, Domain and CoreLogic have Brisbane houses showing little or no growth in the past year, but Hotspotting’s suburb-by-suburb analysis shows there are many out-performers.
We analysed 269 suburban markets, looking at the latest price figures showing quarterly and annual growth rates: 83 of them have recorded annual price growth above 5% (including 20 suburbs with double-digit growth) and another 100 have recorded growth below 5%; 47 have dropped by less than 5% and 39 have dropped more than 5%.
This means seven out of 10 suburban markets have median prices higher than a year ago – very different to the trend in Sydney which is dominating media coverage and causing careless analysts and writers to morph that into a national downturn.
Many of the Brisbane suburbs where the median house price has lifted more than 10% are higher-end markets, including Bardon (up 11% to $1,005,000), Hendra (up 13% to 1,100,000), Graceville (up 13% to $950,000), Kenmore Hills (up 10.5% to $900,000), Norman Park (up 10% to $950,000) and Paddington (up 11% to $1,165,000).
But the highest annual growth in median house prices has been recorded for Sandgate houses (up 19% to $755,000).
A key trend is that 27 or the 39 markets with prices down more than 5% are unit markets: median prices have dropped for apartments in Bowen Hills (20%), Bulimba (15%), East Brisbane (15%), Woodridge (10%), Greenslopes (11%), Hamilton (11%) and Woody Point (18%). 
This reflects the cold reality that the Brisbane unit market has been oversupplied for the past few years – and not just in the inner-city areas.
The Moreton Bay Region LGA has been the busiest market in Greater Brisbane for some time - and my latest survey of sales activity shows that the number of suburbs with rising demand has risen from 7 (six months ago) to 12 – making it one of the leading municipalities in the nation for growth markets.
Growth locations include Bray Park (median $435,000), where quarterly sales have been 37, 57, 62 and 65 in the past 12 months; Murrumba Downs ($540,000) where the sales pattern has been 50, 60, 58 and 68; and Everton Hills ($595,000), where sales have been 26, 39, 39 and 45. 
A number of Moreton Bay suburbs recorded good median price growth in the past 12 months, including Beachmere (up 10%), Sandstone Point (8%), Upper Caboolture (7.5%), Strathpine (10%), Burpengary East (up 9%) and numerous others which grew 5-6%.
The Brisbane-north precinct (the northern suburbs of the sprawling Brisbane City Council area) is now level with the Moreton Bay Region on growth markets (those where demand, as measured by sales volumes, is rising). 
With Moreton Bay Region and Brisbane-north the strongest market, it means the Brisbane market is strongest north of the Brisbane River (with more than half the rising suburbs in the Greater Brisbane area being in these two northside precincts).
A number of Brisbane-north suburbs recorded have good annual price growth, headed by Gordon Park (9%), Hendra (13%), Sandgate (19%), Newmarket (8%) and Nudgee (10%) – while many others have grown 5-6-7%.
These numbers, once again, show how misleading the generalised data is – and that investors need to dig a little deeper to find the growth markets. Brisbane - boosted by the affordability and rental yield comparisons with the biggest cities – has a lot more forward momentum than the media reports suggest.
Once the handbrake comes off (with the big banks starting to compete for business again and the Federal Election soon to be history), Brisbane will become a more obviously upwardly-mobile market.  
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
 
 
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Brisbane's out-performing real estate markets: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
While media obsesses over big city markets where prices are falling, the nation’s hottest markets keep flying under the radar screens of all but the best-informed investors.
I’ve written a lot about Regional Victoria, which I regard as the nation’s strongest market, in terms of both busy sales activity and big price increases, as well as affordable prices and good rental yields.
Most property watchers will be aware of the strength of markets like Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo, but new contenders keep popping up, many of them locations most people would know little about – or have never heard of.
During my most recent Live Q &amp; A on social media, someone asked what I thought about the market in Warburton (pictured top). I had to admit I knew little about the town. But something is happening in Warburton, up in the Yarra Ranges 70km east of central Melbourne. Its median price has risen 17% in the past year to reach $485,000.
Locations with those kind of growth numbers are the norm, not the exception, in Regional Victoria right now. And new ones keep emerging, replacing the early movers as market leaders.
This is because some of the state’s regional markets have passed their peaks. Geelong, for example, has been one of the nation’s most prolific markets in the past two years, but sales activity is no longer growing. It now has more plateau markets than rising ones. 
Other regions where demand has passed its peak (but price growth remains high) include the LGAs of Cardinia (Pakenham, Officer, Bunyip and Emerald), Baw Baw (Warragul, Drouin and Trafalgar), Surf Coast (Anglesea, Apollo Bay and Torquay), Bass Coast (Cowes, Inverloch and Wonthaggi) and Macedon Ranges (Gisborne, Kyneton, Romsey and Woodend).
But new growth markets continue to occur across Victoria. 
At Portland in the far south-west of the state, quarterly sales have been trending steadily upwards for the past two years. With a median house price of $235,000, affordability is a strong attraction, as well as the seaside lifestyle and the noted fishing resource.
Also in the south-west, there’s rising activity in Warrnambool, with median prices up 7% in Koroit and 5% in Warrnambool, while in nearby Port Fairy the median house price has risen 26% to $630,000.
In the Central Goldfields, quarterly sales in Maryborough have increased from 48 to 55 to 71 in the past year and its median house price has grown 18% to $230,000.
In the far east of the state, numerous locations have rising demand, including Bairnsdale and Lakes Entrance. The median price in Lakes Entrance has grown 13% to $325,000 in the past year, while Metung is up 7% to $375,000.
Other Regional Victoria markets with growing signs of uplift include Bright (up 17% to $575,000), Shepparton (up 5% to $275,000), Wangaratta (up 14% to $315,000) and Wodonga (up 3% to $350,000).
Another location that blipped on our radar screen recently, thanks to a client inquiry, is the town of Benalla, where the median house price has increased 10% in the past 12 months, but remains attractively cheap at $275,000. One of the big local drivers is a business which has won a major contract with Melbourne’s West Gate Tunnel project, creating 400 local jobs.
And then there’s Echuca. After watching this market chug along steadily for years, I’ve been forced to include it in the new edition of Top 5 Regional Victoria Hotspots - because, well, it can no longer be ignored.
Echuca is one of those strong regional centres which form the backbone of the nation in industries like agriculture, tourism and manufacturing – and while many people have heard of it, few have ever been there.
Hotspotting has often featured Echuca in The Price Predictor Index on the National Top 50 list of most consistent markets, as measured by quarterly sales volumes. Indeed, in one of our 2017 editions of the quarterly report, we named it the nation’s most consistent market.
And it keeps on keeping on, driven by a strong and diversified local economy, and steady growth. In the past 12 months, its median house price has lifted 16% to $365,000.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Real estate hotspots continue to emerge in regional Victoria: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER 
The many positive market indicators 
Here are some questions that go to the heart of how mainstream media reports residential property:- 
<ol class="ol1">
<li class="li3">Why does most of the media ignore the data from the ABS, realestate.com.au, Domain, SQM Research and the REIA? </li>
<li class="li3">Why are growth figures for Regional Australia markets seldom published? </li>
<li class="li3">Why are alternative measures of property markets - like vacancies, rents and land prices - seldom published? </li>
</ol>
The answer to all those questions is this: mainstream media is interested in negatives. They publish CoreLogic data because it’s the most pessimistic. Most other sources contradict CoreLogic figures, providing a different perspective on what’s truly happening in our markets. 
Mainstream media ignores Regional Australia because that’s where most of the big growth markets are – or because events outside of our major cities are deemed to be unimportant. 
Media seldom focuses on vacancies/rents because they tell a positive story. Vacancies are falling in most capital cities and rents are up in most city markets. 
According to recent price data published by Louis Christopher’s SQM Research, half of our capital city markets are up, compared with a year ago. In some cases, they are up only marginally, but they are up nevertheless. 
City markets with prices higher than a year ago are: 
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li3">Adelaide houses </li>
<li class="li3">Brisbane houses </li>
<li class="li3">Canberra houses </li>
<li class="li3">Canberra apartments </li>
<li class="li3">Darwin apartments </li>
<li class="li3">Hobart houses </li>
<li class="li3">Hobart apartments </li>
<li class="li3">Melbourne apartments </li>
</ul>
Most reports on prices exclude regional Australia, which means our most upbeat markets receive little or no airplay.
Regional Victoria is, I believe, the strongest market in the nation. Big price growth in being recorded in many of its markets, including Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo.
Pretty much everywhere in Regional Tasmania has rising prices. In Regional New South Wales, 85% of locations have rising prices, according to our recent location-by-location survey. 
Parts of Regional Queensland have strong growth markets – with the top end of the Sunshine Coast market, including the Noosa precinct, up more than 20% in annual terms (the median price for Sunshine Beach has risen 36% in the past year).
This contradicts constant media claims that prices are falling across Australia. 
The situation is even more positive with the rental markets of the capital cities. 
Of the 16 capital city markets (each city has a house market and a unit market), 12 have rents higher than a year ago. Only four markets, those in Sydney and Darwin, have rents in decline, according to the SQM Research figures. The latest numbers from rent.com.au have similar conclusions. 
This reflects vacancy rate figures, which show that most of our major cities have vacancy rates lower than a year ago, with four of them - Melbourne, Canberra, Hobart and Adelaide - having vacancies below 1.8%. The capital city average is a little above 2%. 
Equally, the ongoing rise in residential land prices in our major cities receives little coverage in mainstream media. If it’s not negative, they’re not interested. 
Research shows that most households with mortgages are comfortably handling their repayments. There’s positive news on affordability from our biggest cities. There are growing signs that banks are moving to make borrowing easier. 
If journalists had a different mindset, they could be writing upbeat articles – rather than afflicting consumers with relentless negativity designed to generate clickbait headlines.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Mainstream media only interested in the negatives of property: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
We don’t often get sensible analysis of price data from economists - mostly they generalise about “the Australian property market” - but Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan provides an exception.
In a recent article he notes that some sections of the Melbourne market are still strong and that Regional Victoria has many locations with rising prices. 
This correlates with recent Hotspotting research revealing that the cheaper areas of Melbourne still have strong prices while Regional Victoria is the most buoyant market in the nation.
Hassan says Melbourne’s overall price correction “has shown much bigger differences across segments and tiers” than has Sydney. 
“For Melbourne, units and bottom tier areas are holding up much better,” he says, noting that prices across the bottom 25% of the market remain resilient.
“This theme is also apparent across sub-regions. The big movers over the second half of 2018 were Melbourne’s Inner East and Inner South, with the Inner City and West holding up considerably better. 
“Prices are also performing better across Regional Victoria.”
Hassan says that, overall, the city’s rental market remains tight with vacancy rates holding around 2%.
“Meanwhile, rental vacancy rates are extremely tight across Victoria’s regions, having fallen from 2% in late 2017 to just 1.2% in early 2019,” he says. “This in turn suggests the uneven performance is likely to continue.”
Hotspotting’s regular nationwide research into sales activity and price movements has identified numerous growth markets in Regional Victoria.
They include Geelong (above), Ballarat, Bendigo, Pakenham, Officer and Warragul, as well as many smaller towns within an hour or so of Melbourne.
The Price Predictor Index published by Hotspotting ranks Regional Victoria as the No.1 market in Australia for strong sales activity and rising prices.
It has also identified growth markets in the Melbourne metropolitan area.
The generalised data on prices - i.e. one growth figure for the entire nation or for a major city - has Melbourne house prices down, although how much they’ve fallen depends on whose figures you believe. 
One major data source has the Melbourne median house price rising slightly in 2018, while others say it fell 2% or 3%, the latest figure from the ABS says 6% and CoreLogic (which usually has the most negative figures) says Melbourne is down 11%.
These sources have one thing in common: they generalise about very large areas. They lump all of Greater Melbourne, which has 500 suburbs as diverse as Toorak and Epping, into one melting pot, with one figure to describe the whole market. 
But Melbourne has many different scenarios in play, including precincts where prices are still rising. Hotspotting’s suburb-by-suburb analysis shows many of the outer-ring areas still have price growth.
This is confirmed by new data on the suburbs of the Melton LGA in Melbourne’s west. Most Melton suburbs have had annual price growth above 13%.
Melton’s median sits at $410,000 (up 14.5%) while Melton South is $411,750 (up 15.7%), Kurunjang $432,000 (up 19.5%) and Melton West $450,000 (up 13.9%).
The figures confirm that investors who are able to ignore media generalisations and do some real research will have little trouble finding strong markets where prices are growing.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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The property markets that are thriving in Victoria: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The vast majority of NSW Regional markets have price levels higher than 12 months ago – 85% of the locations in our latest survey have recorded growth in the past year.
Hotspotting has surveyed 303 significant markets across the state outside of Sydney (we exclude small markets with fewer than 30 sales in a year, as small sales samples provided distorted medians and unreliable figures on growth or decline). 
Of these, 171 (56%) have recorded median price growth above 5% and a further 88 (29%) have had growth between 1% and 5%.
The 171 locations with growth above 5% included 78 places which had double-digit price growth in the past 12 months.
It provides quite a stark contrast to the trends in Sydney.
Our survey reveals only 11 Regional NSW locations where prices have dropped by more than 5% and another 33 where prices have fallen marginally (between 1% and 5%).
The regional growth has been led by 14 markets with growth of 20% or more: 
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1">Ballina units (up 21%), </li>
<li class="li1">Berry houses (up 36%), </li>
<li class="li1">Broken Hill houses (up 21%), </li>
<li class="li1">Casino units (up 31%), </li>
<li class="li1">Casuarina houses (up 20%), </li>
<li class="li1">Crestwood houses (up 25%),</li>
<li class="li1">Moruya houses (up 23%), </li>
<li class="li1">Sawtell units (up 21%), </li>
<li class="li1">Catalina houses (up 20%), </li>
<li class="li1">Shelly Beach houses (up 29%), </li>
<li class="li1">Wangi Wangi houses (up 40%), </li>
<li class="li1">Uranga houses (up 21%), </li>
<li class="li1">Tura Beach units (up 26%), and </li>
<li class="li1">Taree units (up 20%).</li>
</ul>
The Newcastle region (above) continues to be strong on price growth. The LGAs of Newcastle, Lake Macquarie and Port Stephens all have multiple suburbs with solid to strong median price growth in the past year.
Lake Macquarie markets with rising prices include Belmont, Belmont North, Cardiff, Cardiff South, Caves Beach, Edgeworth, Macquarie Hills, Speers Point, Swansea, Wangi Wangi and Warners Bay.
Other precincts with significant numbers of locations with solid-to-strong price growth include the Central Coast, the Tweed region, Byron Bay and Ballina.
In terms of locations with rising demand, as measured by quarterly sales activity, this Autumn 2019 survey has found 61 Regional NSW locations with markets trending upwards, up from 53 in the Summer 2019 survey but down on the 70 rising markets identified in the Spring 2018 analysis.
There are new growth leaders revealed in this survey: the Lake Macquarie LGA beside Newcastle has six rising markets while the Wagga Wagga LGA has five.
As we have recorded in previous reports, the Hunter Region is a growth market – the LGAs of Maitland, Cessnock, Singleton, Muswellbrook and Upper Hunter (Scone) all present markets where buyer demand is trending higher.
Other centres where markets are busy include the municipalities of Queanbeyan-Palerang, Albury, Ballina, Bathurst, Tamworth and Armidale. Smaller centres with momentum include Parkes, Kyogle, Kempsey, Mudgee, Griffith, Glen Innes, Forbes, Cootamundra , Young and Broken Hill.
A number of major markets that were previously leaders in Regional NSW are now showing signs of having passed their peaks in terms of sales demand, although several of these continue to deliver good price growth.
The Central Coast still has a small number of growth suburbs, but a much greater number of plateau markets – and now there are four we have classified as declining markets. 
This market is perhaps more influenced by Sydney than most in the Regional NSW and the level of sales activity has declined recently – although some locations still have price levels well above those of a year ago, including Shelly Beach (29%), Ettalong Beach (17%), Halekulani (11%), Saratoga (11%) and Wamberal (13%).
Newcastle still has four suburbs classified as rising markets, but many more than are plateau or consistency markets. There are similar trends with Wollongong, Shoalhaven, Shellharbour, the Southern Highlands and the Blue Mountains – notably, most of them places quite close to Sydney.
While our survey found only 11 Regional NSW markets with median prices down more than 5% in the past year, five of them were in the Wollongong LGA, providing further evidence that this previously strong market is now past its peak.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Regional New South Wales continues to see property price growth: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Investors will be piling into the Adelaide market – just as soon as they read somewhere that there’s a boom in the South Australia capital.
But not before. The only constant in the residential property market is that the herd mentality drives the actions of buyers and sellers. 
Adelaide right now is a strong value-for-money proposition, with one of the steadiest and most consistent markets in capital city Australia, underpinned by an economy that the experts have recognised as one of the nation’s best.
But investors generally refuse to consider it. Adelaide flies under the radar screen, with many people clinging to the outdated notion that Adelaide and SA is a low-growth sort of place.
But the experts know better. Here’s a snapshot of what some have said recently:
“South Australia’s economy was the standout of all states and territories in the last three months of 2018, with strong house prices and positive employment momentum boding well for the future.” – ANZ Stateometer report
"Residential property capital values in South Australia had their fastest rise for six years in the last financial year." - SA Property Landscape report from Land Services SA
"Business confidence in SA is now at levels not seen in more than 10 years." - Business SA-William Buck Survey of Business Expectations
"South Australia remains home to the most confident property sector in the country,  buoyed by tax cuts and positive economic announcements. It is the fourth consecutive quarter that confidence in the state's property industry has topped the country." - ANZ / Property Council Survey's Statewide Index
"All the economic indicators are suggesting that Adelaide is going to experience a very buoyant 2019." - Broadway Property director Ben Heritage
"Price Growth Reaches 6 Year High in Sleeper State" - Smart Property Investment magazine
"Adelaide Median House Value Soars To Record High, Defying Downturn In Other Capital Cities." - The Advertiser
"Adelaide Housing Market Forecast To See Steady Growth." - Moody Analytics
"The two key measures of the SA economy - how much production in the state and  how much spending in the state - are both accelerating." - Chris Richardson, Deloitte Access Economics
"Elon Musk’s Tesla is aiming to more than double its battery rollouts during 2019, saying its huge Hornsdale battery in SA has become an important calling card that's attracting bigger projects." - The Australian
"Technicolor's Move To Adelaide Will Generate 400 Jobs and Boost CBD Living and Lifestyle." - The Advertiser
Against that background of economic and property performance, Adelaide is one of Australia’s most consistent markets, a status it has maintained over the past 12 months. It remains the busiest market in capital city Australia and one that is forecast by several analysts to be a national leader on price growth in 2019 and beyond.
SA, dominated by Adelaide, has impressed with its steady performance in the past five years. Each of the past 20 quarters has recorded between 8,000 and 9,500 dwelling sales. Adelaide continues to record high numbers of suburbs with growing sales demand, well above the levels seen in most of the capital cities.
This has produced multiple years of steady price growth, without generating a price boom – yet.
While sources such as CoreLogic and SQM Research report annual growth of only a few percent in Adelaide house prices overall, these generalised figures disguise individual areas which have done better.
It’s noteworthy that many of the millionaire suburbs have recorded big growth in their median prices in past 12 months. Uplift in the premium market is often an early signal of a market upcycle.
The growth is not all confined to the top end: there are suburbs with growth above 10% spread across all price ranges. This reinforces the reality that out-performing areas can be found even when the overall market appears to be moderate.
Adelaide has a broad geographical spread of LGAs with good numbers of growth markets. There are seven municipalities which have five or more suburbs with rising sales trajectories leading to price growth. This means there is growth momentum across the metropolitan area.
The leading precinct, with 12 growth suburbs (which makes it a nation-leading market), is Port Adelaide Enfield - which is likely to attract growing interest as the massive project to build Navy vessels unfolds.
The Marion LGA, a middle-market area in the south-west of Adelaide, has been a market leader for the past 12-18 months and continues to be.
A new challenger in Adelaide is the West Torrens LGA, which is situated between the CBD and the beaches – and offers wonderful value for money, relative to its location. Most suburbs have median house prices in the $500000s.
Another contender is the Tea Tree Gully LGA, which offers a good location relative to major jobs nodes and the Adelaide CBD, good local infrastructure and a high level of housing affordability. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Adelaide flies under the radar as one of our strongest capital city property markets: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The property markets of Hobart and Tasmania lead the nation. Homes sell faster here than anywhere else in Australia and there are locations with double-digit annual price growth throughout the state. 
The key drivers are a strong state economy and affordable prices. Research from realestate.com.au indicates that buyers out of Melbourne are providing a lot of impetus to Tasmanian markets.
The number of growth locations (those where demand, as measured by sales volumes, is rising), is lower than the peak but remains strong and steady.
The outstanding feature of Tasmania’s markets is the strength of prices. Virtually every location of substance across the state has recorded annual price growth above 5% in the past year, and most have delivered better than 10%. It’s almost impossible to find a market where the median price has dropped – and in this regard Tasmania is probably unique in Australia. 
In conducting our quarterly location-by-location research on demand levels across Australia, Hotspotting also examines patterns with prices. We record suburbs and towns where the median price has increased more than 5% in the past year, those which have grown between 1% and 5%, and those where prices have declined more than 5%. (We disregard locations with fewer than 30 annual sales, because the sales sample is too small to provide accurate and meaningful price trends.)
In Hobart, we can find no suburbs with falling prices and none with minor growth. All have increased by more than 5% in the past 12 months – and 80% of them are up at least 10%. A key feature is most have recorded rises in the latest quarter, which indicates prices are still growing.
The standout markets have grown more than 20%, including the house markets in Bellerive (21%), Carlton (22%), Gagebrook (22%), Howrah (23%), Moonah (20%), Risdon Vale (26%) and Warrane (21%)
The Bellerive and West Moonah unit markets are both up 29%.
But the leading markets on price growth are Clarendon Vale houses and Lindisfarne units, both up 32%.
A standout precinct in the Hobart metro area is the Clarence LGA, where Bellerive, Clarendon Vale, Geilston Bay, Howrah, Lauderdale, Lindisfarne, Oakdowns, Risdon Vale, Rokeby and Warrane have all recorded double-digit growth in their median prices.
Our Autumn survey for The Price Predictor Index, like the previous Summer survey, provides further evidence that the Hobart market is beyond its peak in terms of sales demand. In early 2018 we saw the first hint of a moderation in sales activity in Hobart and this was confirmed by later reports. But the drop in demand has been gradual, there are still growth markets, and prices continue to rise.
The Clarence, Glenorchy, Kingborough and Sorell LGAs all have growth suburbs, but they are outnumbered by plateau markets (those where sales demand has settled on solid levels but below the peak). 
The suburb of Rokeby in the Clarence LGA has recorded quarterly sales of 17, 22, 22, 26 and 29 – and its median price has risen 12% to $285,000 in the past 12 months. 
The Brighton LGA on the northern fringe of Hobart is a growth market, both in terms of rising demand and rising prices. In the suburb of Bridgewater, quarterly sales have been 14, 15, 22, 18, 26, 34 and 31 – and the median house price has increased 15% to $235,000 in the past year.
It’s clear from these figures that the locations with the strongest growth dynamics are mainly the ones that offer affordability.
Regional Tasmania is further back in the cycle than Hobart and continues to show strong activity and rising prices. 
Launceston and neighbouring LGAs like West Tamar and Meander Valley have multiple suburbs with rising demand, including Kings Meadows, Norwood, Prospect, South Launceston, Waverley, Hadspen and Riverside. 
This precinct is also delivering rising prices. Suburbs with double-digit annual growth in house prices include Hadspen, Invermay, Kings Meadow, Mowbray, Newnham, Prospect, Ravenswood, South Launceston, Summerhill, Waverley and West Launceston. Two unit markets with notable growth include Newnham (up 27% to $220,000) and Riverside (up 27% to $325,000).
Many of these suburbs have median house prices below $300,000 and others are in the mid low-$300,000s, continuing the state-wide theme of growth in affordable markets. 
But the Tasmanian location with the strongest growth is the town of Richmond, about 25km north-east of Hobart. Its median house price is up 44% to $630,000, but based on a smallish sample of 34 sales in the past year.
Another town just outside Hobart which is doing well is New Norfolk. Sales demand is rising here and median prices are up 18% to $245,000 for houses and 12% to $225,000 for units. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Nowhere in Tasmania has seen less than 5% property price growth in 12 months: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Some economists are concerned about the “wealth effect” of falling property prices. They need not be concerned about that. 
What should concern them is their disturbing lack of knowledge about residential real estate markets. They have misunderstood what’s happening with prices in the many different markets around Australia.
Bill Evans, high-profile economist from Westpac, is one of those who think “falling property prices” will affect consumer spending. He thinks the Reserve Bank will be forced to cut the official interest rate a couple of times this year because of this hypothetical impact of falling property prices.
Mainstream media, as if so often sadly the case, have given great credibility to these forecasts. Journalists have forgotten that Westpac, until last week, was predicting that the cash rate would not change this year and that the next move would be a rise. Now they’ve back-flipped. What does that say about their forecasting?
But the big issue is the lack of understanding about real estate markets. Like most economists, Evans and his cohorts turn their attention to residential property only occasionally, and, when they do, they generalise. They talk about “the Australian property market” and what’s happening with “Australian property prices”. This is a clue that they lack depth of knowledge.
This kind of generalisation is the curse of real estate consumers across the nation. It’s the source of much of the misinformation that permeates mainstream media and which confounds consumers.
Here’s the difference between those Westpac economists and the Hotspotting team: we spend all day, every day, researching residential markets. They do not.
And here’s what I know to be true: locations where property prices have fallen a lot are in the minority. Most markets around the nation have prices that are rising or are holding firm. 
In Hotspotting’s latest location-by-location analysis of sales activity and prices for every suburb and town across the nation, we have identified a number of “danger” markets – those where demand is falling, prices are down and vacancies are rising.
But these danger locations are greatly outnumbered by those where markets are rising. Our national survey finds only 8.5% of locations are negative – what we classify as “declining” or “danger” markets. By comparison, 20.5% of locations are strongly rising. The vast majority – the big lump in the middle – comprises markets where demand is steady and prices solid.
Here's what economists do: they look at a graph or table which describes “Australian property prices”. This is a figure from someone like CoreLogic which provides an average figure for the change in prices for the capital cities. Currently that’s a minus figure because of the weight of Sydney. So they declare that Australian property prices are falling and that this is a national problem.
Apparently, Australians will be so distressed by this that they’ll stop spending in supermarkets and retail stores. It’s a ludicrous proposition.
In Melbourne, only the top end of the market is sharply down. Undoubtedly, the Tooraks of this world have seen prices falling significantly. But Middle Melbourne is remaining very solid price-wise and the cheaper outer-ring suburbs still have rising prices. Most of the suburbs of humble Melton are up by more than 20%.
That’s why most research sources (not including CoreLogic) have Melbourne prices overall down only moderately or, in one case, slightly up.
Meanwhile, Regional Victoria is going ballistic. Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Pakenham, Officer, Warragul and dozens of other regional cities and towns have rising demand and very strong prices.
Hobart prices are still rising and Regional Tasmania is as buoyant as Regional Victoria. Both those regional markets are being supercharged by demand out of Melbourne.
Canberra is rock solid. As I wrote last week, it’s the strongest real estate economy in the nation and it’s doing the opposite to struggling Sydney.
Likewise, Regional NSW. There are growth markets spread right throughout the state. Newcastle and neighbouring LGAs like Lake Macquarie, Port Stephens and the Hunter Region municipalities have formed the strongest market in NSW in the past 12months.
Other important regional centres are rising, including Orange, Tamworth, Byron Bay, Dubbo and many of the smaller towns. Overall it’s a story of growth, in defiance of the Sydney trend.
Those past their best but still solid include Wollongong, Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie and the towns of the Southern Highlands.
Brisbane overall is not rising strongly with prices, but it’s not falling either – and individual pockets are out-performing. It’s not hard to find suburbs where median prices have risen in double digits in the past year.
The Sunshine Coast is Queensland’s strongest market, with top-end suburbs around Noosa particularly buoyant.
Central Queensland locations are recovering from the previous malaise induced by the mining sector, led by the strategic city of Mackay. Others rising from the previous downturn include Emerald, Rockhampton, Dalby, Chinchilla, Moranbah – and we’re now seeing the first evidence of recovery in Gladstone.
Key regional cities like Toowoomba and Cairns have steady markets. Only time will reveal the real estate impacts from Townsville’s floods.
Adelaide is one of the really solid markets in capital city Australia. Demand is steadily rising and, like Brisbane, the city has individual pockets that are out-performing. There’s no sign of falling values here.
Perth has been in downturn for the past four years, but no longer. All the figures show recovery is under way – vacancies down, rents starting to rise, sales activity trending up and the top-end suburbs showing good price growth.
The only markets of significance where major price decline is prevalent are Sydney and Darwin.
Darwin just can’t escape its malaise because the underlying economy is so weak. The Northern Territory is the only state or territory which failed to deliver population growth last year.
Sydney’s situation is heavily documented but very poorly reported. There are plenty of declining markets and more than a few danger ones. But there are still many markets where demand is solid and prices are resilient.
One situation that media has completely overlooked is the defiant performance of the apartment market. Sydney’s gradual decline, which started back in 2016 long before the royal commission and other distractions that economists think important, was precipitated by the market’s reaction of price levels. Affordability became an issue at all levels of the market. 
So now we have a situation where the cheaper products like apartments are still attracting demand and achieving good prices. Throughout inner and middle ring Sydney, there are many dozens of suburbs where the median house price is sharply down but the median apartment price is strongly up.
So where are all these Australians who are so afflicted by falling property prices that they’re going to hide their money under their beds and not spent. Outside of Sydney (but not all of Sydney) and Darwin, they really don’t exist.
And this is reflected in multiple surveys. The latest Westpac poll shows consumer confidence is up and is specifically not affected by all the negative media about house prices. The ME survey indicated most Australians expect house prices to stay solid or to rise this year and the Momentum Wealth survey found investors are planning to buy, with Perth and Brisbane their No.1 targets.
I think these thoughts from veteran real estate analyst Michael Matusik are also relevant: “It is somewhat sobering to find that the majority aren’t that caught up in all the incessant real estate chat. To most a house is their home and not something that needs a lot of day-to-day analysis or comment. The majority just roll their eyes at the daily house price indices. I am in that crowd.”
I, too, am in that crowd. The media and economists like Bill Evans misinterpret and over-estimate the impact of recent price decline on a relatively small number of Australians.
For most of us, a falling property market is simply not part of our day.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Westpac economist Bill Evans has the property market decline wrong: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
This week I’m speaking at a seminar for real estate consumers in Canberra to talk about opportunities in the national capital.
I’ve just completed a suburb-by-suburb analysis on Canberra for the Price Predictor Index and have found that this market is strengthening. 
I’ve examined price data since the start of this century and I note that while Canberra is only a short distance from Sydney, usually its property market is doing something quite different to Sydney’s.
Canberra didn’t follow Sydney into a major property boom and now that Sydney is falling, Canberra is steadily on the rise. This, my research tells me, is situation normal.
Right now, Canberra has more growth markets than at any time since Hotspotting began its quarterly location-by-location surveys four years ago. The norm now in Canberra is suburbs where median prices have grown by more than 5% in the past 12 months, while only a handful have falling prices.
In this latest survey, I’ve have identified 26 suburbs where demand is rising, as well as 37 others where demand is steady and consistent. Unlike Sydney, the Canberra market has no suburbs classified as declining markets or as danger markets.
It is undoubtedly one of the steadiest markets in the nation. Indeed, I regard Canberra as the strongest real estate economy in capital city Australia. 
The ACT is consistently ranked No.3 by CommSec in its quarterly State of the States report, which means that as an economy it ranks ahead of all states/territories except Victoria and NSW. It ranks first in several areas, including dwelling construction and housing finance. 
The latest ABS data shows the ACT ranks first in the nation on population (jointly with Victoria), rising 2.2% in FY2018. Vacancies are around 0.9% (only Hobart has lower vacancies among the capital cities), rents are rising faster than anywhere else and there is evidence of solid price growth. Many suburbs have recorded double-digit growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months and others have grown 7-8-9%.
Some of the recent forecasts from credible analysts suggest Canberra will lead the capital cities on property price growth. Moody’s Analytics, for example, is predicting solid price growth for Canberra this year and in 2020, both for houses and for apartments.
The results of our Autumn 2019 survey support that optimism. Since the start of 2015, demand has been trending upwards in Canberra. It hasn’t been a dramatic rise but over four years the graph depicting demand in the market has trended north – to the point where there is now a record number of suburbs with rising sales activity.
And the price data supports that. Our suburb-by-suburb analysis has identified 31 suburbs where median prices have risen by at least 5% in the past 12 months, and 22 others where prices are growing but by less than 5%. But there are only six suburbs where median prices have fallen by more than 5%.
There are 13 suburbs which have recorded double-digit growth in their median prices and these market leaders are spread across the Canberra metro area. 
But the Inner North precinct is the market leader on price growth. The median house price for Ainslie is up 34%, the median unit price for Watson has risen 30%, the unit median for Dickson is up 21%, while the median house price for O’Connor is up 20%.
The upper end of the Canberra market is going well. Markets with double-digit price growth in the past 12 months include Ainslie (up 34%), Dickson (up 10%), Garran (up 13%), Lyons (up 10%) and O’Connor (up 20%) – all suburbs with median house prices above $850,000. Suburbs in that market with price rises between 5% and 10% include Curtin, Deakin, Hughes, Narrabunda and Nicholls. 
In terms of sales activity, strong markets are found right across the ACT. As we often find, the strongest demand is in the northern suburbs, with Belconnen the leading district with six growth suburbs, followed closely by nearby Gungahlin which has five suburbs with rising demand.
 
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Terry Ryder

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