Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

&nbsp;

Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.

The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.

The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.

The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]

Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.

Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.

Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]

Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.

“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.

“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”

“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.” 
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]

The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.

Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.

The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.

The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]

Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.

“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.

“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”

A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.

That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.

The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]

According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.

Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.

The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.

The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.

That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.

The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]

The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.

“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.

“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”

The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]

Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.

The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.

Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]

Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.

Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.

“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.

He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.

“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.

“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.

Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.

Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.

Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.

The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]

Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more internation and domestic flights.

Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.

Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.

The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.

The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" />

According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”

The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.

The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.

Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.

“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.

The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.

The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" />

The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.

“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.

According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.

“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.

“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”

The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.

Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.

&nbsp;

The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" />

St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.

Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.

The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.

More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.

First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Sometimes economic upheaval can be the best thing that happens to a property market. Places afflicted by business closures and industry shutdowns often go into fightback mode and the end result is a net positive.
Newcastle since the closure of BHP in the late 1990s is a great example. So is Wollongong, a city where doom was forecast when Bluescope Steel was downsizing but which these days has a thriving local economy and growth property market.
And Geelong, which has had a number of blue-collar industries close but which has evolved into one of regional Australia’s strongest economies, with a property market which had led Victoria on price growth in the past two years.
In Adelaide, the former Mitsubishi car plant property has been re-purposed as a high-tech innovation precinct, a sector in which the SA capital leads the nation. More recently, the Holden manufacturing facility closed down but that too is being reinvented with modern creative industries.
Sometimes, this kind of supposed adversity can be the best thing that can happen in a local economy and its real estate market.
So now, to the surprise of many, we have resurgence in the Latrobe Valley in Victoria, where the closure of coal-related industries was thought be the death knell for local towns. But, yet again, the opposite is true and now towns like Traralgon and Moe are shaping as the next to join Victoria’s regional property boom.
Yes, there’s a property boom sweeping through regional Victoria. Contrary to the theme of mainstream media, which has created the false impression of decline everywhere, there are thriving and rising markets across the nation – and regional Victoria is at the forefront of them.
Victoria’s Latrobe Valley is a market that many investors would avoid because many of its towns are down-market and the region has attracted mostly negative publicity suggesting economic decline.
But the reality is quite different from the media-driven perceptions. The Latrobe Valley is performing strongly and the real estate market is rising. It’s becoming the latest of the fightback markets of Australia.
Buyer demand has been slowly rippling eastward from Melbourne in the last few years. Sales activity in Cardinia Shire (Pakenham and Officer) and Baw Baw (Warragul and Drouin) has risen strongly, with big price growth. Now, it’s Latrobe City’s turn. 
The Latrobe Valley economy was impacted by the closure of coal-fired power stations but various levels of government have been directing resources to the region to boost the economy and maintain jobs. Numerous small projects to support small business and manufacturing are under way, schools and sporting complexes are being upgraded, a GovHub is being established and unemployment has fallen.
On a larger scale, the Defence Force is relocating its pilot training academy to nearby Sale, the local hospital is being redeveloped in a $217 million project, the Gippsland rail line is being duplicated in several sections and there are plans to establish an electronic car-making factory in the region.
This is drawing the focus from the traditional mining sector and steering Latrobe Valley in a new direction.
Latrobe City is recognised as one of Victoria’s four major regional centres along with Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong. It is made up of four central towns – Churchill, Moe/Newborough, Morwell and Traralgon.
The City is the residential and commercial hub of a larger catchment of 262,000 people stretching across the Latrobe Valley and Gippsland region. Latrobe Valley is one of the most liveable regions in Victoria, known for its high-quality health, education and community services.
More commonly known for its energy production, the Latrobe region is also a heartland for agriculture, pastoral, papermaking and timber, supplemented by manufacturing and engineering.
Latrobe Valley is serviced by Victoria’s regional train network with V/Line train stations at Trafalgar, Moe, Morwell and Traralgon.
Regional Victoria is now the strongest market in Australian real estate. As the Melbourne boom subsides, regional markets are rising strongly.
Latrobe is a prime example: demand is rising in all four main towns. These markets are very affordable – Churchill, Moe and Morwell all have medians below $200,000. Traralgon, the biggest market with 620 annual sales, has a median house price of $290,000. 
Strong yields and low vacancies, both being hallmarks of a promising property market, are evident across Latrobe City. SQM Research data shows rents have generally risen in the last 12 months. The median rent in Morwell is $240, 8% higher than a year ago and 18% up on the rate of three years ago. Investors can expect rental returns around 6.8% in Churchill and Morwell, and 6.4% in Moe. 
The region can now offer a combination of low prices, low vacancies and high rental returns. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Regional property markets historically defy their economic downturns: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Media tends to measure markets by movements in median prices. But other measures of the health of major markets are worthy of attention, including sales volumes, vacancy rates and movements in rentals.
Rental data is often a forward-looking marker of things to come with prices. Sydney had a couple of years of major rental growth, but little in the way of price growth, before embarking on its price boom from 2013 to 2017. Hobart recorded very low vacancies and the nation’s biggest rental growth before starting the mini-boom on prices that’s still occurring.
So we should keep a close eye on what’s happening with vacancies and rents in the major cities.
The Domain Rental Report for the December 2018 Quarter shows that rents are stronger than sale prices in terms of growth in the past year. Six of the eight capital cities delivered growth in their rentals in 2018, both for houses and for apartments. Recent rental data from SQM Research has similar numbers.
There is, as always, a strong correlation between vacancy rates and rental growth.
The cities with the tightest rental markets, Hobart (0.4% vacancy, according to SQM) and Canberra (0.9%), are the ones with the highest annual growth in their rentals.
Other cities with low vacancies, Adelaide (1.2%) and Melbourne (1.9%), have also recorded solid growth in their rentals.
Two cities where vacancy rates have been high in the recent past but have improved recently - Brisbane (3.0%) and Perth (3.4%) - are also both delivering moderate growth in their rents.
The only cities where rents have fallen in the past year are those where vacancies are trending higher - Sydney (current vacancy rate 3.2%, up from 2.1% a year ago) and Darwin (4.0%, up from 2.8% a year ago).
Sydney house rents have declined annually for the first time in 12 years. Sydney is no longer the nation’s most expensive capital city to rent a house.
Canberra house rents have continued to rise on the back of low vacancies and the national capital is now the most expensive city for house rentals (according to Domain – the SQM Research figures differ on this point).
Brisbane house rents increased annually for the first time in almost three years, helped by improvement in the vacancy rate. This is one of numerous markers suggesting that Brisbane real estate will be stronger in 2019.
Hobart house rents continue to increase, but the rate of growth has slowed. There’s a similar trend with prices and this, combined with a gradual decline in sales activity recently, suggests the mini-boom in the Tasmanian capital has passed its peak. 
Perth house rents have increased annually for the first time in five years. “Coupled with improving yields, the city will become a more attractive option for investors,” says Domain. I tend to agree and note that there are other indicators of improvement in the Perth market, including increased sales activity and elevated prices in the million-dollar suburbs.
In the apartment markets, Sydney unit rents have declined for two consecutive quarters for the first time on record, with rents hitting an almost two-year low, Domain says.
Brisbane unit rents recorded the strongest annual increase in almost three years. I note that Moody’s Analytics is forecasting Brisbane will be a national leader on apartment price growth in the next year or two.
Canberra unit rents experienced the strongest annual growth the city has seen in almost two years, yet another marker of stronger performance in this market, which is underpinned by one of the nation’s best economies and lowest jobless rate.
Overall the rental data, alongside other figures, points to stronger markets this year in Canberra, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide – and confirms the decline in Sydney, while pointing a gradual wind-down in Hobart’s buoyant market.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Rental data provides clues for property price growth areas: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER 
Our quarterly surveys of sales activity always reveal key trends and the latest shows just how many growth markets we have in the different markets across Australia.
The smaller capital cities and in particular regional Australian are providing some compelling growth areas which provide an attractive combination of affordable prices and solid rental yields, compared to the now-fading markets in the biggest cities.
Here are four key findings from the new edition of The Price Predictor Index:-
1. Adelaide Is the Unsung Hero
Hotspotting’s latest survey confirms that Adelaide is the standout market in capital city Australia and is largely an unheralded star – although we note the latest report from realestate.com.au which lists Adelaide alongside Hobart as the fastest-selling markets in the country. 
Adelaide seems destined to always fly under the radar screen of national media, but it has a noteworthy property market. 
We reported in the previous edition that Adelaide had become the nation’s leading market jurisdiction, with 61 suburbs with rising sales activity. Our new survey reveals Adelaide has improved further and now has 71 growth suburbs. 
The next best city is the recovering Perth market, which has 49 (up from 45 in the winter survey). Canberra is also travelling well, with a solid (relative to its size) 22 upwardly-mobile suburbs. 
Brisbane remains lukewarm, but with promise of better things, and Hobart, which is currently the leading city on price growth, looks to have passed the peak of its up-cycle. 
Darwin remains mired in its downturn. As noted in previous reports, Sydney and Melbourne are well past their peaks and have few growth markets.
2. Regional Markets Out-do Their Capital Cities
Regional areas continue to out-perform their capital cities in the eastern states. 
Regional NSW is the only serious challenger to Adelaide as the market jurisdiction with the most rising markets and now has considerably more growth markets than Sydney. 
Regional Victoria is also pumping and is out-performing the fading Melbourne market. 
Regional Queensland is out-doing Brisbane, which is yet to fire. And Regional Tasmania is raging in the wake of Hobart’s mini-boom. 
This is also being reflected in price performance. The strongest price growth in the past 12 months has occurred in selected Regional Victoria markets, while Regional NSW has multiple precincts where double-digit annual price growth has been recorded. 
The strongest market in Queensland is the Sunshine Coast and we are seeing a return to solid price growth in recovering Central Queensland markets like Mackay. A recent REIQ report confirmed that Regional Queensland was out-doing Brisbane on price uplift and a CoreLogic analysis in November listed Regional Tasmania as a national leader on price growth.
3. Price Patterns Confirm The Importance Of Demand Data
Price performance around Australia in the past 12 months has emphatically confirmed the basic premise of The Price Predictor Index: that increases in sales volumes (buyer demand) in a location leads to price growth, but with a time lag. 
The time lag factor often means that price uplift continues for a considerable time after sales activity has started to taper off. 
Right now, many of the locations around Australia with the biggest price growth are what we classify as “plateau” markets – places where sales activity has passed its peak and tapered off at still-solid levels a little below the peak. 
A prime example is provided by the outer ring suburbs of Melbourne, where sales were previously rising strongly and have now tapered off – but prices are still rising. This is true for suburbs in the Whittlesea, Hume, Casey and Wyndham LGAs, where most suburbs have recorded growth above 10% in the past 12 months, including many which have recently topped 20% growth. 
This is also true for the suburbs of Greater Geelong and other areas just outside Melbourne, including Pakenham, Officer and Warragul in the south-east. New South Wales examples include the Central Coast and the City of Newcastle.
4. Big City Prices Stronger Than Media Suggests
Mainstream media is over-stating price decline in our two biggest cities, partly caused by dodgy data and analysis from some of the research companies and partly through the ineptitude of economists, who pontificate on subjects beyond their area of expertise, notably residential property markets. 
Our detailed analysis of recent activity in Sydney and Melbourne has found evidence of price decline in some markets, but not the wholesale large decreases claimed in daily newspaper reporting. 
In our analysis of Melbourne we say this: “A feature of Melbourne is the number of locations where prices remain strong … Our survey has found over 100 suburbs across the metropolitan area where median prices have recorded double-digit growth in annual terms, including 85 where prices have risen further in the most recent quarter. This finding contradicts media coverage, which suggests prices are falling across the Melbourne metropolitan area. The general theme, based on our survey, is that the top end suburbs are experiencing price decline, the middle market areas are holding firm on pricing and the cheaper areas are still rising.” 
Prices are weaker in Sydney, but we can find few locations with sufficient decline to justify claims that Sydney prices are down 8% in annual terms (CoreLogic figures). Few individual suburbs have fallen that much, as yet.
And I note that the latest figures from other research sources, including SQM Research, Domain and the ABS, record Sydney’s price decline in smaller numbers. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Four standout trends in the end of 2018 Australian property markets: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Tim Lawless of CoreLogic wrote on Property Observer recently that roughly half the sub-regions of Australia have rising property prices, including about 40% of capital city sub-regions and 60% of those in regional Australia.
Those numbers paint a starkly different picture to the relentless daily line-up of click-bait headlines telling us that prices are falling across Australia.
Last week I highlighted areas around Melbourne and in regional Victoria near the capital city where prices have risen a lot in the past year and continue to rise strongly. Some of the growth rates are eye-boggling.
In contrast to headlines declaring that Melbourne values are falling by $1000 a week, I’ve found myriad suburbs right across the Melbourne metropolitan area where prices have grown more than 10 percent in the past 12 months and have also had growth in the latest quarter.
The standout sub-market with declining median prices is the top end – the suburbs with million-dollar median prices. Elsewhere, growth markets greatly outnumber those that are in decline, especially in the outer-ring areas.
Here’s another example of current strong growth: the Sunshine Coast.
I’ve just completed a research exercise which included making a list of regional Queensland locations where there’s been double-digit growth in median prices in the past year, plus meaningful growth in the most recent quarter.
Suburbs in the Sunshine Coast region dominate that list.
And I’m happy to say I predicted it. Based on the massive pipeline of infrastructure projects and other big developments, I’ve been shouting about looming growth in this market for the past two years.
When there’s $20 billion being invested in a relatively small regional city, price growth in the residential market is inevitable – provided developers don’t saturate the market with new product. To date, the Sunshine Coast has avoided the Gold Coast’s tendency towards over-supply.
So prices are growing. At a Sydney seminar last week I met a developer who had sold a Maroochydore penthouse for $6 million and an apartment on the floor below for $5.7 million. Those are startling numbers for this location.
Noosa, after a long period of under-achievement, has returned to growth recently. In annual terms, its median house price is up 14 percent, while units are up 12 percent, according to CoreLogic data. Noosaville and Tewantin have both grown 11 percent.
Nearby, Sunshine Beach is up 17 percent and the median house sells for around $1.4 million.
Heading south, Coolum Beach has risen 12 percent and nearby Mount Coolum is up 22 percent.
There is a long list of other Sunshine Coast locales with annual growth above 10 percent.
But the star performer is the upmarket water-based suburb of Minyama, where the median house price has risen 46 percent to $1.31 million, according to CoreLogic figures. Whenever I see a price growth statistic like that, I instantly think “statistical aberration” – usually caused by a small sales sample. But Minyama has recorded 60 sales in the past 12 months so the sample is not a problem. 
I checked other price data sources, which provide estimates of the median house price ranging from $1.25 million to $1.4 million. One records an annual growth rate of 46 percent and another says 49 percent, while a third source says the median price has risen around 8 percent in the past quarter alone. But other sources have more moderate price rates, so go figure.
Overall, it’s a strong picture of growth across this vibrant market.
Why is it so? Because billions are being pumped into this economy. 
The new medical precinct alone has been an enormous catalyst, including the $2 billion University Hospital and the adjoining private hospital, as well as smaller specialist facilities. 
These facilities have brought thousands of new residents to the Sunshine Coast, many of them well-paid and looking for quality homes.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Sunshine Coast a property price growth leader: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Prices are growing strongly in selected markets in different parts of Australia, not that you would know it if you confined your research to reading mainstream media.
And the areas where the growth is the greatest include the fringes of the Melbourne metropolitan area and locations within an hour or so of the capital city.
Last week I wrote: “Right now, many of the best opportunities to buy well for future growth and good rental returns are in regional Australia. While media’s focus remains firmly on the capital cities, the reality is that the strongest price growth in the past year has been recorded in regional centres.
“The best-performing markets this year, based on our analysis of all the research, have been Geelong in Victoria (above), the towns of Cardinia Shire just outside Melbourne, the NSW Central Coast and the Newcastle region.”
One of the key factors here is that the most active buyers, now, are those looking for affordability. So first-home buyers and investors on small budgets have been targeting the outer-ring suburbs of Melbourne and near-city regional centres.
The problem, once again, is that media likes to dumb things down for its readers and listeners, on the basis that we’re all a bit thick and can’t digest sophisticated information (although I suspect it’s the journalists themselves who need to have things dumbed down, because few of them have specialist knowledge of the subject).
So they generalise. And the generalised data tells us Melbourne prices are falling – apparently, because it depends on whose data you believe.
Consider this: in annual terms, CoreLogic records a 4.5 percent decline in Melbourne house prices, but SQM Research essentially says there’s no change and the latest ABS figures report a 2.6 percent rise.
With apartments, CoreLogic reports a slight 0.3 percent rise in Melbourne’s median price, ABS has a 1.4 percent increase and SQM claims a 7 percent rise.
So it’s not a fact to declare that Melbourne prices are falling, given that some research data contradicts the claim. What is true, I think, is that the average rate of growth is much lower than before.
But, and here’s the thing, the growth remains strong in some areas, particularly the outer-ring suburbs being targeted by budget buyers.
The research from various sources shows that first-home buyers, nationally, are more active than at any time in the past eight years. And Melbourne is one of the national leaders for the activity of first-time buyers.
I did some detailed research last week for an interview on ABC radio Melbourne and this confirmed just how prolific the growth is in some of the outer-ring areas.
On the northern fringes of the Melbourne metropolitan area, median prices are up strongly in annual terms in Epping, Lalor, Thomastown, South Morang, Broadmeadows, Jacana and elsewhere – led by Epping (up 22 percent) and Broadmeadows (up 26 percent), according to CoreLogic figures.
It’s notable that most of those suburbs have had further solid growth in the most recent quarter.
Similar trends are evident in the south-west, where Wyndham Vale, Werribee and Hoppers Crossing have all recorded 18-19 percent growth in their median prices in annual terms, including around 3 percent growth in the most recent quarter.
But the really big growth is happening in the regional centres just outside Melbourne. Geelong has been attracting attention as a leader not just in Victoria but nationally. Domain says the median house price for the City of Greater Geelong has grown 12 percent in the past year - but individual suburbs, notably the cheaper ones, have recorded much stronger figures.
North Geelong and Herne Hill are both up 24 percent in annual terms, while Corio and Norlane (which both have median house prices in the mid-$300,000s) have grown 30 percent in 12 months.
Norlane, Corio and North Geelong have each grown at least 7 percent in the most recent quarter for which we have figures.
Geelong is not an isolated example. A little beyond the Melbourne metro area to the south-east, Officer, Pakenham and Warragul have recorded annual rises between 20 and 27 percent. Those three towns, plus nearby Drouin, rose a further 4 percent or so in the most recent quarter.
Other regional areas where prices have been outperforming Melbourne averages include the Surf Coast, Ballarat, Mildura and Warrnambool – and I suspect that most of these markets, as well as Bendigo and Shepparton, are very early in their growth cycles.
The latest Domain data indicates that there are eight regional areas of New South Wales which have recorded annual growth above 10 percent, but I’ll save that discussion until a future column.
Remember this data next time you read in mainstream media that property prices are falling everywhere.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Victorian regions where property prices are growing strongly: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
While mainstream media obsesses over the inevitable downturn in the major markets in Sydney and Melbourne, somehow turning that into a national crisis, the rest of the nation is overlooked, especially regional Australia.
This is a shame for property investors because, right now, many of the best opportunities to buy well for future growth and good rental returns are in regional Australia.
While media’s focus remains firmly on the capital cities, the reality is that the strongest price growth in the past year has been recorded in regional centres.
The best-performing markets this year, based on our analysis of all the research, have been Geelong in Victoria, the towns of Cardinia Shire just outside Melbourne, the NSW Central Coast and the Newcastle region (pictured above).
It’s significant that while the average price outcome for the capital cities is a negative figure, dragged down by Sydney’s decline, the result for regional Australia is positive. This is according to latest data from CoreLogic, which says that the average total return for regional Australia is 6.2%, compared to -0.6% for the combined capital cities.
While four of the eight capital cities have price levels lower than a year ago (according to CoreLogic - other sources disagree), five of the six major state regional markets have prices higher than 12 months ago.
The latest figures from SQM Research have annual price for the capital cities (the average for the eight capitals) slightly in the negative, but the national average including the regions is solidly in the positive.
Returns are better in the regions: yields in the capital cities average 3.5%, while the regions average 5% (CoreLogic figures).
And, of course, the prices are much more affordable: the median dwelling price for the cities is $643,000, compared to $368,000 in the regional areas.
Looking forward, the markets I see as having the best potential for upside for investors include locations like Ballarat and Bendigo in Victoria, the Hunter Region of NSW and the Sunshine Coast in Queensland, with recovering Townsville another market likely to provide great value and potential for future growth.
I note that the latest McGrath Report puts forward the view that regional property markets are the “new black’’ in residential real estate.
The report says leading regional hubs like the Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast, Geelong and Newcastle are undergoing significant price growth on the back of strong demand.
It suggests improved infrastructure has made commuting times faster between regional areas and capital cities - and when coupled with the NBN rollout making access to technology better, these regions have become even more appealing to buyers.
“Massive infrastructure investment across Australia is also boosting employment in regional centres,’’ the report says.
Most investors overlook the regions, believing that all the economic and property growth potential lies in the capital cities. It simply isn’t so.
To increase awareness of the potential in our regional areas, consider what Jack Archer, chief executive of the Regional Australia Institute, said in a recent newspaper column:
“Many believe one of the problems with plans to decentralise our population is too few jobs in rural and regional Australia. Not true. Permanent skilled and unskilled migrants are needed in many areas.
“And simple reforms to immigration policy with support from rural communities to settle new permanent migrants will help take pressure off major cities.”
He notes Federal Government moves to channel jobseekers into regional work and the possibility of a five-year regional visa to connect migrants with permanent regional jobs.
Data from the Federal Government’s Internet Vacancy Index shows why new permanent migration to regions is critical. In July there were 46,000 job vacancies in regional Australia. This is up 23% from February 2016. Capital city vacancies rose only 12%.
Archer says: “This need is not about temporary farm work. Today’s vacancies are a mix of high-skill and low-skill jobs — everything from labouring, to sales, trades and professions. In the Pilbara, there are about 1,600 vacancies including 553 trades (automotive), 332 professionals (engineering and health), 238 machinery operators, 155 labourers and 128 clerical staff.”
Australia has many strong, diverse regional economies supporting property markets which are affordable, have much better yields than the cities and have strong potential for capital growth.
That’s why I see buying in good regional cities as a win-win-win scenario.
John McGrath recently said regional is the new black, rivalling the likes of Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne with their new improved lifestyle, population growth and growing economy's.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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It's time to focus on regional city property markets: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
While media obsesses over price data as the only market measure worth talking about, the forgotten barometer is residential rentals.
Not only does mainstream media misunderstand and misinterpret median price data, but it largely overlooks the fundamental importance of what’s happening in the rental markets of our major cities. 
Vacancy rates and rental growth figures are important because they’re often a pointer to future rises in dwelling prices.
Before Sydney got on its growth path with price rises, it had a couple of years of strong growth in rents. Hobart, currently the price growth leader in capital city Australia, also had notable growth in rentals before prices started to rise. 
According to the latest SQM Research figures, Hobart still has the lowest vacancy rate among the cities and it’s still delivering significant rental growth alongside the price growth - still rising in double digits, according to some (but not all) research sources).
This is a pattern that, according to the research, is common - rents rise before prices do. This makes patterns with vacancies and rents worth noting.
So I’ve looked at the latest rental data from two key sources, Domain and SQM Research.
The market leader is a toss-up between Canberra and Hobart. This makes sense when you understand that these two cities have stood out for the past couple of years as the places with the tightest rental markets, both with vacancy rates well below 1 percent.
In the national capital, both Domain and SQM have house rents rising between 8 and 9 percent in annual terms, while apartments rents are up 7 percent (Domain) or 5 percent (SQM).
In Hobart, the two research sources agree that rents have risen markedly for both houses and apartments, but the numbers are quite different. Domain has rents up 11 percent for houses and 9 percent for apartments; SQM’s growth figures are 5 percent for houses and 14 percent for units.
So it’s pretty clear-cut. Canberra and Hobart have been the leading cities for low vacancies and strongly rising rentals.
But what is the third-ranked city in those terms? The answer is the city no one (other than me) ever talks about, Adelaide.
Adelaide’s vacancy rate has been hovering around 1 percent, according to recent SQM figures. Some sectors of the Adelaide market, such as the City of Marion, have vacancy rates closer to 0.5 percent.
And recently the SA capital has been producing solid rental growth figures. Domain records annual growth of 4.2 percent for houses and just under 2 percent for apartments, while SQM reports around 3 percent for houses and 3.4 percent for apartments.
Adelaide’s growth seems fairly moderate but, to put it in perspective, the two research sources have Sydney rents stagnating or falling. SQM, for example, has Sydney house rents down 3.6 percent and apartments falling 1.2 percent in annual terms.
In Brisbane, where vacancy rates have been high (although now trending downwards), rents have been fairly stagnant over the past year.
In Darwin, where vacancy rates have been elevated for several years, Domain has house rents down almost 4 percent and SQM records a reduction of close to 6 percent.
Domain records no change in Perth rents for both houses and apartments, although SQM suggests house rents are showing early signs of a return to growth - which would correlate to steadily improving figures on vacancy rates.
Melbourne’s rental data is moderate only, with both sources suggesting rises of 2-3 percent in the past 12 months.
So where do the vacancy/rental trends point us, in terms of predicting future growth in prices. I would suggest the best answers (particularly when considered alongside other evidence) are Adelaide, Canberra and Perth.
Canberra has very low vacancies and strongly rising rents. It also has a strong local economy and rising sales activity. Its price growth, currently solid but moderate, should improve. The top end of the market is already rising.
Adelaide has low vacancies and improving rental growth. It also has an improving local economy and a busy sales market. Price performance, already strong in the million-dollar suburbs, should escalate.
And Perth, where rents and prices have been falling in recent years, is poised to rise. Its vacancies are trending steadily downwards, there’s evidence of rising leasing activity and the first signs of a return to rental growth. As the state economy improves, sales activity is steadily rising - and price growth is already happening in the top end suburbs.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
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Top three Australian cities for rental growth and lowest vacancies: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Here’s the hardest thing for real estate consumers doing research: who do you believe?
It’s hard to know who’s worth listening to and who is not. There are so many people pumping out press releases, writing commentary pieces and pontificating on television about our housing markets – and only a small fraction of this mass of white noise is worthy of your attention.
But there are markers which expose the pretenders – clues which allows you to separate the genuine experts.
Here’s how to identify the pontificators you should ignore:-
1. They discuss Australian real estate as a single market
The Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenburg exposed himself as a pretender in a recent column published in The Australian. His opening paragraph stated, as a fact: “Prices in our major capital cities have fallen for 12 consecutive months …” 
In doing so, one of our most senior federal politicians perpetuated one of the worst pieces of misinformation currently out there.
Frydenburg’s statement is outrageous misinformation. One source that is often quoted, CoreLogic, has the average result for the eight capital cities as a negative figure, but at the same time records that nine of the 14 major market jurisdictions (eight capital cities and six regional areas) have prices higher than a year ago.
Other research sources have different figures. SQM Research, for example, records the national average results as a 1.7 percent rise in annual terms, while the latest ABS figures record quarterly price rises in five of the eight capital cities.
So the claim that prices have been falling everywhere for 12 months is unsupported by any of the research evidence. The Federal Treasurer is simply parroting misleading media headlines.
But Frydenberg is not alone in his ignorance. Indeed, he has lots of company, when it comes to extrapolating the Sydney/Melbourne situation into a national downturn. Economists, in particular, are prone to misinforming Australians by discussing the nation as a single market and often getting their analysis wrong by generalising about prices.
We’d all be better off if they simply shut up.
Contrast that with these recent comments from someone with real credentials, veteran adviser and commentator Noel Whittaker:
“The problem is that most media commentary focuses on that elusive animal they call the ‘property market’. We might be told that Australian property is overheated, or that the property market has fallen by 5.6 per cent in the last year (in Sydney), or that Perth values have fallen by 12.6 per cent after peaking in 2014.
“But the fact is there is no such a thing as a single property market – not for Australia, not even for a single capital city – there are myriad property markets all doing their own thing. How can you compare a townhouse in Cairns with a mansion in Point Piper? All over Australia some markets may be rising, other markets may be falling, and some may be flat.”
Whittaker has encapsulated exactly how I see it.
Next time you hear/read a commentator discussing “the Australian property market” or claiming that “Australian house prices have fallen 5 percent”, turn the page or change channels because the talking head/writer is a charlatan pretending to be an expert.
2. They’re not real estate specialists
The problem with Josh Frydenberg is that, while he may prove to be a capable Treasurer, he’s not a real estate expert. Residential property is not his specialty.
This is the core problem with many of the prolific pontificators. Economists frequently make the mistake of thinking they can extrapolate their financial knowledge and economic theories to the real estate market. After 35 years as a real estate specialist, I’m still waiting to encounter an economist who understands the peculiar dynamics of real estate markets.
Last week I wrote about my Top 20 Worst Predictions About Australian Real Estate. Most of the people who made that list by getting their predictions horribly wrong were economists who strayed outside their area of speciality.
True real estate experts who are worthy of your attention are those who are genuine specialists for whom researching markets is a daily routine. They’re also people who don’t treat real estate data as a vehicle for free publicity, but as a means to inform the public by presenting well-considered and balanced analysis.
They include people like Louis Christopher of SQM Research and Simon Pressley of Propertyology. These are genuine experts who specialise in residential property. I don’t suggest they’re right about everything but they have earned the right to be heard by being real, independent, devoted experts.
3. They believe it’s all about interest rates
Most of the pretenders talk about the level of interest rates as the prime determinant of real estate markets and their cycles.
Ask your average economist why Sydney boomed and they’ll tell you it was “record low interest rates”.
This is a ridiculous for several reasons. If the level of interest rates was the catalyst, why no boom in Brisbane? Or Adelaide, Canberra and most of regional Australia. Why have prices fallen in Perth and Darwin during this period of record low rates?
It’s false logic to assume, as many economists do, that low rates = boom and rising rates = downturn. The two big nationwide property booms of the past 30 years (late Eighties and early Noughties) both occurred during periods of high and rising interest rates.
The end of the Sydney/Melbourne booms occurred with interest rates still at these very low levels.
The profile of the person you should ignore is an economist who rants about “the Australian property market” in the context of national factors like interest rates and APRA decisions – and generally tends to feel that everything that happens in real estate markets is an outrage because it doesn’t fit with their economic models of what prices should do and where values should be.
The genuine expert will discuss individual markets, include different sub-markets within each of our major cities, and will understand the fundamental importance of the underlying local economies, influenced by population trends, infrastructure spending, jobs creation and supply-demand factors.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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How to identify a misinformed property forecaster: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Two years ago I researched media predictions about residential property and compared the forecasts with subsequent outcomes.
It showed the remarkably bad track record of spruikers, economists and attention-seekers in forecasting what will occur in our markets nationwide. 
Over the past 15 years or so, it’s become trendy to make doomsday forecasts about real estate. A popular number is 40 percent - i.e. the standard scary prediction is a 40 percent drop in our property values, usually tipped to take place in the next 12 months.
Every single one of these forecasts has been proven spectacularly wrong – not surprisingly, because most of them have been fanciful in the extreme and I’m quite certain that the forecasters themselves did not believe what they were saying. The goal has been to achieve some quick and easy publicity. 
Out of this research exercise I compiled a list entitled “Top 20 worst predictions about Australian property markets”.
No.1 on this list was a US spruiker called Jordan Wirsz (don’t feel bad if you’ve never heard of him) who visited Australia in 2012 and forecast a 60 percent fall in home values in a “bloodbath” to take place in the next year. He also tipped that land values would decline 90 percent.
Can you imagine that? He was claiming that our residential land would be virtually worthless. 
Nothing remotely like that has ever occurred in the history of planet Earth and it’s difficult to comprehend why anyone would think it could happen in Australia.
The most amazing thing was that Australian media gave these predictions credibility and gave the touring spruiker exactly what he wanted – lots of free publicity.
What followed this prediction was five years of major price increases in our two biggest cities and mostly steady markets in the rest of Australia.
Another US pontificator, Harry S Dent, has visited Australia several times in the past seven years and each time – including in 2011 and 2014 – has warned that our property prices would crash in the next 12 months.
Each time Australian media has treated him as a credible commentator, with oodles of free profile, notwithstanding his growing track record of getting his forecasts about our real estate markets utterly wrong. I’m sure that next time he visits the same will happen again.
My Top 20 list also includes local economists who have made similar predictions within specific time frames, with the same success rate.
Some have claimed that our homes are over-valued according to their favoured economic model and therefore prices must fall. Others have stated that, back in the days of rising interest rates, that the higher cost of money would cause a collapse of property values.
The head of one of our major banks said in 2011 that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe would force down our property values, only to be followed by several years of strong price rises.
One high-profile and much-quoted Australian economist declared in 2005 that there would be no growth in our home values for the next 10 years. Ouch.
Also on the Top 20 list are commentators who rushed – in 2013 and 2014 - to be the first to declare the end of the price boom in Sydney and Melbourne. 
One of them was a senior official at the Reserve Bank, while another was a Morgan Stanley analyst who famously said, about three years too early: “If you’re an investor, you’ve missed the boat.”
So now we have the notorious 60 Minutes debacle, with yet another forecast of property values falling 40 percent, based on nothing but a pre-conceived notion to boost ratings.
I note that virtually every independent commentator who has reacted on the 60 Minutes program has said that the forecast scenario was highly unlikely or plain silly. Even the key analysts featured on the Channel 9 program have claimed that their views were misrepresented through selective editing. I spoke to one of those who was featured on the program and he was horrified at the outcome.
I was approached by 60 Minutes in mid-August to take part in the program. But they dropped the planned interview when I told them I disagreed with their basic premise of collapsing property markets.
This is not how journalism is meant to work. In true journalism, you do your research and conduct your interviews - and then you come to some conclusions and decide your headline. 60 Minutes did it backwards by deciding the headline and then seeking comment that supported it.
I complained to the ABC television program Media Watch and last week they did a segment pointing out the many flaws in the 60 Minutes segment.
I’m sure the 60 Minutes program will feature prominently next time I update my Top 20 Worst Predictions list, with the same level of success as the many doomsday forecasters who have preceded them.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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The 20 worst crash predictions about the Australian property market: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Whenever a major research firm publishes its latest data on the movement in capital city house prices, media presents that data as fact. 
It also, often, makes sweeping conclusions about the meaning of the figures, relative to affordability, the state of the market and the impact on consumers.
The next firm to publish data will receive the same media treatment: the figures are factual, therefore this is what is means for the market and for buyers and sellers.
The problem is: the two sets of data are quite different and, in some cases, contradictory.
By the time figures have been published from five different sources - the ABS, the REIA, SQM Research, Domain and the ever-present but often-puzzling CoreLogic are regularly featured - consumers who have been absorbing all the data will be massively confused and terribly misinformed.
It’s rare for all sources to agree on how much city markets are rising or falling - or, indeed, whether markets are rising or falling.
According to CoreLogic’s latest data, Melbourne house prices are lower than 12 months ago - but both the ABS and SQM Research disagree. They both have Melbourne about 3% higher than a year ago.
It’s a similar situation with Adelaide: SQM says the Adelaide housing market is down a little, but the ABS and CoreLogic says it’s risen marginally.
All three sources believe the Hobart market has risen in the past year, but there is considerable disagreement on how much: CoreLogic says 10.7%, the ABS 15.5% but SQM claims it’s only 6.4%.
There’s a substantial difference there: SQM says there’s only moderate growth in the Tasmanian capital but the official government source, the ABS, portrays a boom market.
CoreLogic tells us the Perth housing market is still in the negative but SQM claims that the downturn is over and prices have started to rise again.
Canberra is either the strongest capital city market in the nation, up 10.4% in the annual terms, or it’s rising only moderately at 2% or 3% - depending on whose figures you believe.
SQM says the average scenario across the eight capital cities is an annual rise of 2.6%, but the ABS says there’s been no meaningful change, while CoreLogic says the national market is down 2%.
Newspaper headlines keep telling that prices are falling across Australia, because they tend to publish the CoreLogic figures, but both the ABS and SQM disagree.
Both those sources have prices higher than a year ago in five of the eight capital cities, and SQM has the national average up 2.6%, but you get quite a different conclusion is you focus on the CoreLogic data.
The only matters on which the three major sources broadly agree is that the Darwin housing market is down about 4% and that the Brisbane house market is up by 1% or 2%.
The message for consumers is: don’t take price data published by media too seriously - and don’t base big financial decisions on the published data.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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