Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

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"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

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The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Sometimes economic upheaval can be the best thing that happens to a property market. Places afflicted by business closures and industry shutdowns often go into fightback mode and the end result is a net positive.
Newcastle since the closure of BHP in the late 1990s is a great example. So is Wollongong, a city where doom was forecast when Bluescope Steel was downsizing but which these days has a thriving local economy and growth property market.
And Geelong, which has had a number of blue-collar industries close but which has evolved into one of regional Australia’s strongest economies, with a property market which had led Victoria on price growth in the past two years.
In Adelaide, the former Mitsubishi car plant property has been re-purposed as a high-tech innovation precinct, a sector in which the SA capital leads the nation. More recently, the Holden manufacturing facility closed down but that too is being reinvented with modern creative industries.
Sometimes, this kind of supposed adversity can be the best thing that can happen in a local economy and its real estate market.
So now, to the surprise of many, we have resurgence in the Latrobe Valley in Victoria, where the closure of coal-related industries was thought be the death knell for local towns. But, yet again, the opposite is true and now towns like Traralgon and Moe are shaping as the next to join Victoria’s regional property boom.
Yes, there’s a property boom sweeping through regional Victoria. Contrary to the theme of mainstream media, which has created the false impression of decline everywhere, there are thriving and rising markets across the nation – and regional Victoria is at the forefront of them.
Victoria’s Latrobe Valley is a market that many investors would avoid because many of its towns are down-market and the region has attracted mostly negative publicity suggesting economic decline.
But the reality is quite different from the media-driven perceptions. The Latrobe Valley is performing strongly and the real estate market is rising. It’s becoming the latest of the fightback markets of Australia.
Buyer demand has been slowly rippling eastward from Melbourne in the last few years. Sales activity in Cardinia Shire (Pakenham and Officer) and Baw Baw (Warragul and Drouin) has risen strongly, with big price growth. Now, it’s Latrobe City’s turn. 
The Latrobe Valley economy was impacted by the closure of coal-fired power stations but various levels of government have been directing resources to the region to boost the economy and maintain jobs. Numerous small projects to support small business and manufacturing are under way, schools and sporting complexes are being upgraded, a GovHub is being established and unemployment has fallen.
On a larger scale, the Defence Force is relocating its pilot training academy to nearby Sale, the local hospital is being redeveloped in a $217 million project, the Gippsland rail line is being duplicated in several sections and there are plans to establish an electronic car-making factory in the region.
This is drawing the focus from the traditional mining sector and steering Latrobe Valley in a new direction.
Latrobe City is recognised as one of Victoria’s four major regional centres along with Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong. It is made up of four central towns – Churchill, Moe/Newborough, Morwell and Traralgon.
The City is the residential and commercial hub of a larger catchment of 262,000 people stretching across the Latrobe Valley and Gippsland region. Latrobe Valley is one of the most liveable regions in Victoria, known for its high-quality health, education and community services.
More commonly known for its energy production, the Latrobe region is also a heartland for agriculture, pastoral, papermaking and timber, supplemented by manufacturing and engineering.
Latrobe Valley is serviced by Victoria’s regional train network with V/Line train stations at Trafalgar, Moe, Morwell and Traralgon.
Regional Victoria is now the strongest market in Australian real estate. As the Melbourne boom subsides, regional markets are rising strongly.
Latrobe is a prime example: demand is rising in all four main towns. These markets are very affordable – Churchill, Moe and Morwell all have medians below $200,000. Traralgon, the biggest market with 620 annual sales, has a median house price of $290,000. 
Strong yields and low vacancies, both being hallmarks of a promising property market, are evident across Latrobe City. SQM Research data shows rents have generally risen in the last 12 months. The median rent in Morwell is $240, 8% higher than a year ago and 18% up on the rate of three years ago. Investors can expect rental returns around 6.8% in Churchill and Morwell, and 6.4% in Moe. 
The region can now offer a combination of low prices, low vacancies and high rental returns. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Regional property markets historically defy their economic downturns: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Media tends to measure markets by movements in median prices. But other measures of the health of major markets are worthy of attention, including sales volumes, vacancy rates and movements in rentals.
Rental data is often a forward-looking marker of things to come with prices. Sydney had a couple of years of major rental growth, but little in the way of price growth, before embarking on its price boom from 2013 to 2017. Hobart recorded very low vacancies and the nation’s biggest rental growth before starting the mini-boom on prices that’s still occurring.
So we should keep a close eye on what’s happening with vacancies and rents in the major cities.
The Domain Rental Report for the December 2018 Quarter shows that rents are stronger than sale prices in terms of growth in the past year. Six of the eight capital cities delivered growth in their rentals in 2018, both for houses and for apartments. Recent rental data from SQM Research has similar numbers.
There is, as always, a strong correlation between vacancy rates and rental growth.
The cities with the tightest rental markets, Hobart (0.4% vacancy, according to SQM) and Canberra (0.9%), are the ones with the highest annual growth in their rentals.
Other cities with low vacancies, Adelaide (1.2%) and Melbourne (1.9%), have also recorded solid growth in their rentals.
Two cities where vacancy rates have been high in the recent past but have improved recently - Brisbane (3.0%) and Perth (3.4%) - are also both delivering moderate growth in their rents.
The only cities where rents have fallen in the past year are those where vacancies are trending higher - Sydney (current vacancy rate 3.2%, up from 2.1% a year ago) and Darwin (4.0%, up from 2.8% a year ago).
Sydney house rents have declined annually for the first time in 12 years. Sydney is no longer the nation’s most expensive capital city to rent a house.
Canberra house rents have continued to rise on the back of low vacancies and the national capital is now the most expensive city for house rentals (according to Domain – the SQM Research figures differ on this point).
Brisbane house rents increased annually for the first time in almost three years, helped by improvement in the vacancy rate. This is one of numerous markers suggesting that Brisbane real estate will be stronger in 2019.
Hobart house rents continue to increase, but the rate of growth has slowed. There’s a similar trend with prices and this, combined with a gradual decline in sales activity recently, suggests the mini-boom in the Tasmanian capital has passed its peak. 
Perth house rents have increased annually for the first time in five years. “Coupled with improving yields, the city will become a more attractive option for investors,” says Domain. I tend to agree and note that there are other indicators of improvement in the Perth market, including increased sales activity and elevated prices in the million-dollar suburbs.
In the apartment markets, Sydney unit rents have declined for two consecutive quarters for the first time on record, with rents hitting an almost two-year low, Domain says.
Brisbane unit rents recorded the strongest annual increase in almost three years. I note that Moody’s Analytics is forecasting Brisbane will be a national leader on apartment price growth in the next year or two.
Canberra unit rents experienced the strongest annual growth the city has seen in almost two years, yet another marker of stronger performance in this market, which is underpinned by one of the nation’s best economies and lowest jobless rate.
Overall the rental data, alongside other figures, points to stronger markets this year in Canberra, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide – and confirms the decline in Sydney, while pointing a gradual wind-down in Hobart’s buoyant market.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Rental data provides clues for property price growth areas: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER 
Our quarterly surveys of sales activity always reveal key trends and the latest shows just how many growth markets we have in the different markets across Australia.
The smaller capital cities and in particular regional Australian are providing some compelling growth areas which provide an attractive combination of affordable prices and solid rental yields, compared to the now-fading markets in the biggest cities.
Here are four key findings from the new edition of The Price Predictor Index:-
1. Adelaide Is the Unsung Hero
Hotspotting’s latest survey confirms that Adelaide is the standout market in capital city Australia and is largely an unheralded star – although we note the latest report from realestate.com.au which lists Adelaide alongside Hobart as the fastest-selling markets in the country. 
Adelaide seems destined to always fly under the radar screen of national media, but it has a noteworthy property market. 
We reported in the previous edition that Adelaide had become the nation’s leading market jurisdiction, with 61 suburbs with rising sales activity. Our new survey reveals Adelaide has improved further and now has 71 growth suburbs. 
The next best city is the recovering Perth market, which has 49 (up from 45 in the winter survey). Canberra is also travelling well, with a solid (relative to its size) 22 upwardly-mobile suburbs. 
Brisbane remains lukewarm, but with promise of better things, and Hobart, which is currently the leading city on price growth, looks to have passed the peak of its up-cycle. 
Darwin remains mired in its downturn. As noted in previous reports, Sydney and Melbourne are well past their peaks and have few growth markets.
2. Regional Markets Out-do Their Capital Cities
Regional areas continue to out-perform their capital cities in the eastern states. 
Regional NSW is the only serious challenger to Adelaide as the market jurisdiction with the most rising markets and now has considerably more growth markets than Sydney. 
Regional Victoria is also pumping and is out-performing the fading Melbourne market. 
Regional Queensland is out-doing Brisbane, which is yet to fire. And Regional Tasmania is raging in the wake of Hobart’s mini-boom. 
This is also being reflected in price performance. The strongest price growth in the past 12 months has occurred in selected Regional Victoria markets, while Regional NSW has multiple precincts where double-digit annual price growth has been recorded. 
The strongest market in Queensland is the Sunshine Coast and we are seeing a return to solid price growth in recovering Central Queensland markets like Mackay. A recent REIQ report confirmed that Regional Queensland was out-doing Brisbane on price uplift and a CoreLogic analysis in November listed Regional Tasmania as a national leader on price growth.
3. Price Patterns Confirm The Importance Of Demand Data
Price performance around Australia in the past 12 months has emphatically confirmed the basic premise of The Price Predictor Index: that increases in sales volumes (buyer demand) in a location leads to price growth, but with a time lag. 
The time lag factor often means that price uplift continues for a considerable time after sales activity has started to taper off. 
Right now, many of the locations around Australia with the biggest price growth are what we classify as “plateau” markets – places where sales activity has passed its peak and tapered off at still-solid levels a little below the peak. 
A prime example is provided by the outer ring suburbs of Melbourne, where sales were previously rising strongly and have now tapered off – but prices are still rising. This is true for suburbs in the Whittlesea, Hume, Casey and Wyndham LGAs, where most suburbs have recorded growth above 10% in the past 12 months, including many which have recently topped 20% growth. 
This is also true for the suburbs of Greater Geelong and other areas just outside Melbourne, including Pakenham, Officer and Warragul in the south-east. New South Wales examples include the Central Coast and the City of Newcastle.
4. Big City Prices Stronger Than Media Suggests
Mainstream media is over-stating price decline in our two biggest cities, partly caused by dodgy data and analysis from some of the research companies and partly through the ineptitude of economists, who pontificate on subjects beyond their area of expertise, notably residential property markets. 
Our detailed analysis of recent activity in Sydney and Melbourne has found evidence of price decline in some markets, but not the wholesale large decreases claimed in daily newspaper reporting. 
In our analysis of Melbourne we say this: “A feature of Melbourne is the number of locations where prices remain strong … Our survey has found over 100 suburbs across the metropolitan area where median prices have recorded double-digit growth in annual terms, including 85 where prices have risen further in the most recent quarter. This finding contradicts media coverage, which suggests prices are falling across the Melbourne metropolitan area. The general theme, based on our survey, is that the top end suburbs are experiencing price decline, the middle market areas are holding firm on pricing and the cheaper areas are still rising.” 
Prices are weaker in Sydney, but we can find few locations with sufficient decline to justify claims that Sydney prices are down 8% in annual terms (CoreLogic figures). Few individual suburbs have fallen that much, as yet.
And I note that the latest figures from other research sources, including SQM Research, Domain and the ABS, record Sydney’s price decline in smaller numbers. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Four standout trends in the end of 2018 Australian property markets: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Tim Lawless of CoreLogic wrote on Property Observer recently that roughly half the sub-regions of Australia have rising property prices, including about 40% of capital city sub-regions and 60% of those in regional Australia.
Those numbers paint a starkly different picture to the relentless daily line-up of click-bait headlines telling us that prices are falling across Australia.
Last week I highlighted areas around Melbourne and in regional Victoria near the capital city where prices have risen a lot in the past year and continue to rise strongly. Some of the growth rates are eye-boggling.
In contrast to headlines declaring that Melbourne values are falling by $1000 a week, I’ve found myriad suburbs right across the Melbourne metropolitan area where prices have grown more than 10 percent in the past 12 months and have also had growth in the latest quarter.
The standout sub-market with declining median prices is the top end – the suburbs with million-dollar median prices. Elsewhere, growth markets greatly outnumber those that are in decline, especially in the outer-ring areas.
Here’s another example of current strong growth: the Sunshine Coast.
I’ve just completed a research exercise which included making a list of regional Queensland locations where there’s been double-digit growth in median prices in the past year, plus meaningful growth in the most recent quarter.
Suburbs in the Sunshine Coast region dominate that list.
And I’m happy to say I predicted it. Based on the massive pipeline of infrastructure projects and other big developments, I’ve been shouting about looming growth in this market for the past two years.
When there’s $20 billion being invested in a relatively small regional city, price growth in the residential market is inevitable – provided developers don’t saturate the market with new product. To date, the Sunshine Coast has avoided the Gold Coast’s tendency towards over-supply.
So prices are growing. At a Sydney seminar last week I met a developer who had sold a Maroochydore penthouse for $6 million and an apartment on the floor below for $5.7 million. Those are startling numbers for this location.
Noosa, after a long period of under-achievement, has returned to growth recently. In annual terms, its median house price is up 14 percent, while units are up 12 percent, according to CoreLogic data. Noosaville and Tewantin have both grown 11 percent.
Nearby, Sunshine Beach is up 17 percent and the median house sells for around $1.4 million.
Heading south, Coolum Beach has risen 12 percent and nearby Mount Coolum is up 22 percent.
There is a long list of other Sunshine Coast locales with annual growth above 10 percent.
But the star performer is the upmarket water-based suburb of Minyama, where the median house price has risen 46 percent to $1.31 million, according to CoreLogic figures. Whenever I see a price growth statistic like that, I instantly think “statistical aberration” – usually caused by a small sales sample. But Minyama has recorded 60 sales in the past 12 months so the sample is not a problem. 
I checked other price data sources, which provide estimates of the median house price ranging from $1.25 million to $1.4 million. One records an annual growth rate of 46 percent and another says 49 percent, while a third source says the median price has risen around 8 percent in the past quarter alone. But other sources have more moderate price rates, so go figure.
Overall, it’s a strong picture of growth across this vibrant market.
Why is it so? Because billions are being pumped into this economy. 
The new medical precinct alone has been an enormous catalyst, including the $2 billion University Hospital and the adjoining private hospital, as well as smaller specialist facilities. 
These facilities have brought thousands of new residents to the Sunshine Coast, many of them well-paid and looking for quality homes.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Sunshine Coast a property price growth leader: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Prices are growing strongly in selected markets in different parts of Australia, not that you would know it if you confined your research to reading mainstream media.
And the areas where the growth is the greatest include the fringes of the Melbourne metropolitan area and locations within an hour or so of the capital city.
Last week I wrote: “Right now, many of the best opportunities to buy well for future growth and good rental returns are in regional Australia. While media’s focus remains firmly on the capital cities, the reality is that the strongest price growth in the past year has been recorded in regional centres.
“The best-performing markets this year, based on our analysis of all the research, have been Geelong in Victoria (above), the towns of Cardinia Shire just outside Melbourne, the NSW Central Coast and the Newcastle region.”
One of the key factors here is that the most active buyers, now, are those looking for affordability. So first-home buyers and investors on small budgets have been targeting the outer-ring suburbs of Melbourne and near-city regional centres.
The problem, once again, is that media likes to dumb things down for its readers and listeners, on the basis that we’re all a bit thick and can’t digest sophisticated information (although I suspect it’s the journalists themselves who need to have things dumbed down, because few of them have specialist knowledge of the subject).
So they generalise. And the generalised data tells us Melbourne prices are falling – apparently, because it depends on whose data you believe.
Consider this: in annual terms, CoreLogic records a 4.5 percent decline in Melbourne house prices, but SQM Research essentially says there’s no change and the latest ABS figures report a 2.6 percent rise.
With apartments, CoreLogic reports a slight 0.3 percent rise in Melbourne’s median price, ABS has a 1.4 percent increase and SQM claims a 7 percent rise.
So it’s not a fact to declare that Melbourne prices are falling, given that some research data contradicts the claim. What is true, I think, is that the average rate of growth is much lower than before.
But, and here’s the thing, the growth remains strong in some areas, particularly the outer-ring suburbs being targeted by budget buyers.
The research from various sources shows that first-home buyers, nationally, are more active than at any time in the past eight years. And Melbourne is one of the national leaders for the activity of first-time buyers.
I did some detailed research last week for an interview on ABC radio Melbourne and this confirmed just how prolific the growth is in some of the outer-ring areas.
On the northern fringes of the Melbourne metropolitan area, median prices are up strongly in annual terms in Epping, Lalor, Thomastown, South Morang, Broadmeadows, Jacana and elsewhere – led by Epping (up 22 percent) and Broadmeadows (up 26 percent), according to CoreLogic figures.
It’s notable that most of those suburbs have had further solid growth in the most recent quarter.
Similar trends are evident in the south-west, where Wyndham Vale, Werribee and Hoppers Crossing have all recorded 18-19 percent growth in their median prices in annual terms, including around 3 percent growth in the most recent quarter.
But the really big growth is happening in the regional centres just outside Melbourne. Geelong has been attracting attention as a leader not just in Victoria but nationally. Domain says the median house price for the City of Greater Geelong has grown 12 percent in the past year - but individual suburbs, notably the cheaper ones, have recorded much stronger figures.
North Geelong and Herne Hill are both up 24 percent in annual terms, while Corio and Norlane (which both have median house prices in the mid-$300,000s) have grown 30 percent in 12 months.
Norlane, Corio and North Geelong have each grown at least 7 percent in the most recent quarter for which we have figures.
Geelong is not an isolated example. A little beyond the Melbourne metro area to the south-east, Officer, Pakenham and Warragul have recorded annual rises between 20 and 27 percent. Those three towns, plus nearby Drouin, rose a further 4 percent or so in the most recent quarter.
Other regional areas where prices have been outperforming Melbourne averages include the Surf Coast, Ballarat, Mildura and Warrnambool – and I suspect that most of these markets, as well as Bendigo and Shepparton, are very early in their growth cycles.
The latest Domain data indicates that there are eight regional areas of New South Wales which have recorded annual growth above 10 percent, but I’ll save that discussion until a future column.
Remember this data next time you read in mainstream media that property prices are falling everywhere.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Victorian regions where property prices are growing strongly: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
While mainstream media obsesses over the inevitable downturn in the major markets in Sydney and Melbourne, somehow turning that into a national crisis, the rest of the nation is overlooked, especially regional Australia.
This is a shame for property investors because, right now, many of the best opportunities to buy well for future growth and good rental returns are in regional Australia.
While media’s focus remains firmly on the capital cities, the reality is that the strongest price growth in the past year has been recorded in regional centres.
The best-performing markets this year, based on our analysis of all the research, have been Geelong in Victoria, the towns of Cardinia Shire just outside Melbourne, the NSW Central Coast and the Newcastle region (pictured above).
It’s significant that while the average price outcome for the capital cities is a negative figure, dragged down by Sydney’s decline, the result for regional Australia is positive. This is according to latest data from CoreLogic, which says that the average total return for regional Australia is 6.2%, compared to -0.6% for the combined capital cities.
While four of the eight capital cities have price levels lower than a year ago (according to CoreLogic - other sources disagree), five of the six major state regional markets have prices higher than 12 months ago.
The latest figures from SQM Research have annual price for the capital cities (the average for the eight capitals) slightly in the negative, but the national average including the regions is solidly in the positive.
Returns are better in the regions: yields in the capital cities average 3.5%, while the regions average 5% (CoreLogic figures).
And, of course, the prices are much more affordable: the median dwelling price for the cities is $643,000, compared to $368,000 in the regional areas.
Looking forward, the markets I see as having the best potential for upside for investors include locations like Ballarat and Bendigo in Victoria, the Hunter Region of NSW and the Sunshine Coast in Queensland, with recovering Townsville another market likely to provide great value and potential for future growth.
I note that the latest McGrath Report puts forward the view that regional property markets are the “new black’’ in residential real estate.
The report says leading regional hubs like the Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast, Geelong and Newcastle are undergoing significant price growth on the back of strong demand.
It suggests improved infrastructure has made commuting times faster between regional areas and capital cities - and when coupled with the NBN rollout making access to technology better, these regions have become even more appealing to buyers.
“Massive infrastructure investment across Australia is also boosting employment in regional centres,’’ the report says.
Most investors overlook the regions, believing that all the economic and property growth potential lies in the capital cities. It simply isn’t so.
To increase awareness of the potential in our regional areas, consider what Jack Archer, chief executive of the Regional Australia Institute, said in a recent newspaper column:
“Many believe one of the problems with plans to decentralise our population is too few jobs in rural and regional Australia. Not true. Permanent skilled and unskilled migrants are needed in many areas.
“And simple reforms to immigration policy with support from rural communities to settle new permanent migrants will help take pressure off major cities.”
He notes Federal Government moves to channel jobseekers into regional work and the possibility of a five-year regional visa to connect migrants with permanent regional jobs.
Data from the Federal Government’s Internet Vacancy Index shows why new permanent migration to regions is critical. In July there were 46,000 job vacancies in regional Australia. This is up 23% from February 2016. Capital city vacancies rose only 12%.
Archer says: “This need is not about temporary farm work. Today’s vacancies are a mix of high-skill and low-skill jobs — everything from labouring, to sales, trades and professions. In the Pilbara, there are about 1,600 vacancies including 553 trades (automotive), 332 professionals (engineering and health), 238 machinery operators, 155 labourers and 128 clerical staff.”
Australia has many strong, diverse regional economies supporting property markets which are affordable, have much better yields than the cities and have strong potential for capital growth.
That’s why I see buying in good regional cities as a win-win-win scenario.
John McGrath recently said regional is the new black, rivalling the likes of Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne with their new improved lifestyle, population growth and growing economy's.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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It's time to focus on regional city property markets: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
While media obsesses over price data as the only market measure worth talking about, the forgotten barometer is residential rentals.
Not only does mainstream media misunderstand and misinterpret median price data, but it largely overlooks the fundamental importance of what’s happening in the rental markets of our major cities. 
Vacancy rates and rental growth figures are important because they’re often a pointer to future rises in dwelling prices.
Before Sydney got on its growth path with price rises, it had a couple of years of strong growth in rents. Hobart, currently the price growth leader in capital city Australia, also had notable growth in rentals before prices started to rise. 
According to the latest SQM Research figures, Hobart still has the lowest vacancy rate among the cities and it’s still delivering significant rental growth alongside the price growth - still rising in double digits, according to some (but not all) research sources).
This is a pattern that, according to the research, is common - rents rise before prices do. This makes patterns with vacancies and rents worth noting.
So I’ve looked at the latest rental data from two key sources, Domain and SQM Research.
The market leader is a toss-up between Canberra and Hobart. This makes sense when you understand that these two cities have stood out for the past couple of years as the places with the tightest rental markets, both with vacancy rates well below 1 percent.
In the national capital, both Domain and SQM have house rents rising between 8 and 9 percent in annual terms, while apartments rents are up 7 percent (Domain) or 5 percent (SQM).
In Hobart, the two research sources agree that rents have risen markedly for both houses and apartments, but the numbers are quite different. Domain has rents up 11 percent for houses and 9 percent for apartments; SQM’s growth figures are 5 percent for houses and 14 percent for units.
So it’s pretty clear-cut. Canberra and Hobart have been the leading cities for low vacancies and strongly rising rentals.
But what is the third-ranked city in those terms? The answer is the city no one (other than me) ever talks about, Adelaide.
Adelaide’s vacancy rate has been hovering around 1 percent, according to recent SQM figures. Some sectors of the Adelaide market, such as the City of Marion, have vacancy rates closer to 0.5 percent.
And recently the SA capital has been producing solid rental growth figures. Domain records annual growth of 4.2 percent for houses and just under 2 percent for apartments, while SQM reports around 3 percent for houses and 3.4 percent for apartments.
Adelaide’s growth seems fairly moderate but, to put it in perspective, the two research sources have Sydney rents stagnating or falling. SQM, for example, has Sydney house rents down 3.6 percent and apartments falling 1.2 percent in annual terms.
In Brisbane, where vacancy rates have been high (although now trending downwards), rents have been fairly stagnant over the past year.
In Darwin, where vacancy rates have been elevated for several years, Domain has house rents down almost 4 percent and SQM records a reduction of close to 6 percent.
Domain records no change in Perth rents for both houses and apartments, although SQM suggests house rents are showing early signs of a return to growth - which would correlate to steadily improving figures on vacancy rates.
Melbourne’s rental data is moderate only, with both sources suggesting rises of 2-3 percent in the past 12 months.
So where do the vacancy/rental trends point us, in terms of predicting future growth in prices. I would suggest the best answers (particularly when considered alongside other evidence) are Adelaide, Canberra and Perth.
Canberra has very low vacancies and strongly rising rents. It also has a strong local economy and rising sales activity. Its price growth, currently solid but moderate, should improve. The top end of the market is already rising.
Adelaide has low vacancies and improving rental growth. It also has an improving local economy and a busy sales market. Price performance, already strong in the million-dollar suburbs, should escalate.
And Perth, where rents and prices have been falling in recent years, is poised to rise. Its vacancies are trending steadily downwards, there’s evidence of rising leasing activity and the first signs of a return to rental growth. As the state economy improves, sales activity is steadily rising - and price growth is already happening in the top end suburbs.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
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Top three Australian cities for rental growth and lowest vacancies: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Here’s the hardest thing for real estate consumers doing research: who do you believe?
It’s hard to know who’s worth listening to and who is not. There are so many people pumping out press releases, writing commentary pieces and pontificating on television about our housing markets – and only a small fraction of this mass of white noise is worthy of your attention.
But there are markers which expose the pretenders – clues which allows you to separate the genuine experts.
Here’s how to identify the pontificators you should ignore:-
1. They discuss Australian real estate as a single market
The Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenburg exposed himself as a pretender in a recent column published in The Australian. His opening paragraph stated, as a fact: “Prices in our major capital cities have fallen for 12 consecutive months …” 
In doing so, one of our most senior federal politicians perpetuated one of the worst pieces of misinformation currently out there.
Frydenburg’s statement is outrageous misinformation. One source that is often quoted, CoreLogic, has the average result for the eight capital cities as a negative figure, but at the same time records that nine of the 14 major market jurisdictions (eight capital cities and six regional areas) have prices higher than a year ago.
Other research sources have different figures. SQM Research, for example, records the national average results as a 1.7 percent rise in annual terms, while the latest ABS figures record quarterly price rises in five of the eight capital cities.
So the claim that prices have been falling everywhere for 12 months is unsupported by any of the research evidence. The Federal Treasurer is simply parroting misleading media headlines.
But Frydenberg is not alone in his ignorance. Indeed, he has lots of company, when it comes to extrapolating the Sydney/Melbourne situation into a national downturn. Economists, in particular, are prone to misinforming Australians by discussing the nation as a single market and often getting their analysis wrong by generalising about prices.
We’d all be better off if they simply shut up.
Contrast that with these recent comments from someone with real credentials, veteran adviser and commentator Noel Whittaker:
“The problem is that most media commentary focuses on that elusive animal they call the ‘property market’. We might be told that Australian property is overheated, or that the property market has fallen by 5.6 per cent in the last year (in Sydney), or that Perth values have fallen by 12.6 per cent after peaking in 2014.
“But the fact is there is no such a thing as a single property market – not for Australia, not even for a single capital city – there are myriad property markets all doing their own thing. How can you compare a townhouse in Cairns with a mansion in Point Piper? All over Australia some markets may be rising, other markets may be falling, and some may be flat.”
Whittaker has encapsulated exactly how I see it.
Next time you hear/read a commentator discussing “the Australian property market” or claiming that “Australian house prices have fallen 5 percent”, turn the page or change channels because the talking head/writer is a charlatan pretending to be an expert.
2. They’re not real estate specialists
The problem with Josh Frydenberg is that, while he may prove to be a capable Treasurer, he’s not a real estate expert. Residential property is not his specialty.
This is the core problem with many of the prolific pontificators. Economists frequently make the mistake of thinking they can extrapolate their financial knowledge and economic theories to the real estate market. After 35 years as a real estate specialist, I’m still waiting to encounter an economist who understands the peculiar dynamics of real estate markets.
Last week I wrote about my Top 20 Worst Predictions About Australian Real Estate. Most of the people who made that list by getting their predictions horribly wrong were economists who strayed outside their area of speciality.
True real estate experts who are worthy of your attention are those who are genuine specialists for whom researching markets is a daily routine. They’re also people who don’t treat real estate data as a vehicle for free publicity, but as a means to inform the public by presenting well-considered and balanced analysis.
They include people like Louis Christopher of SQM Research and Simon Pressley of Propertyology. These are genuine experts who specialise in residential property. I don’t suggest they’re right about everything but they have earned the right to be heard by being real, independent, devoted experts.
3. They believe it’s all about interest rates
Most of the pretenders talk about the level of interest rates as the prime determinant of real estate markets and their cycles.
Ask your average economist why Sydney boomed and they’ll tell you it was “record low interest rates”.
This is a ridiculous for several reasons. If the level of interest rates was the catalyst, why no boom in Brisbane? Or Adelaide, Canberra and most of regional Australia. Why have prices fallen in Perth and Darwin during this period of record low rates?
It’s false logic to assume, as many economists do, that low rates = boom and rising rates = downturn. The two big nationwide property booms of the past 30 years (late Eighties and early Noughties) both occurred during periods of high and rising interest rates.
The end of the Sydney/Melbourne booms occurred with interest rates still at these very low levels.
The profile of the person you should ignore is an economist who rants about “the Australian property market” in the context of national factors like interest rates and APRA decisions – and generally tends to feel that everything that happens in real estate markets is an outrage because it doesn’t fit with their economic models of what prices should do and where values should be.
The genuine expert will discuss individual markets, include different sub-markets within each of our major cities, and will understand the fundamental importance of the underlying local economies, influenced by population trends, infrastructure spending, jobs creation and supply-demand factors.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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How to identify a misinformed property forecaster: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Two years ago I researched media predictions about residential property and compared the forecasts with subsequent outcomes.
It showed the remarkably bad track record of spruikers, economists and attention-seekers in forecasting what will occur in our markets nationwide. 
Over the past 15 years or so, it’s become trendy to make doomsday forecasts about real estate. A popular number is 40 percent - i.e. the standard scary prediction is a 40 percent drop in our property values, usually tipped to take place in the next 12 months.
Every single one of these forecasts has been proven spectacularly wrong – not surprisingly, because most of them have been fanciful in the extreme and I’m quite certain that the forecasters themselves did not believe what they were saying. The goal has been to achieve some quick and easy publicity. 
Out of this research exercise I compiled a list entitled “Top 20 worst predictions about Australian property markets”.
No.1 on this list was a US spruiker called Jordan Wirsz (don’t feel bad if you’ve never heard of him) who visited Australia in 2012 and forecast a 60 percent fall in home values in a “bloodbath” to take place in the next year. He also tipped that land values would decline 90 percent.
Can you imagine that? He was claiming that our residential land would be virtually worthless. 
Nothing remotely like that has ever occurred in the history of planet Earth and it’s difficult to comprehend why anyone would think it could happen in Australia.
The most amazing thing was that Australian media gave these predictions credibility and gave the touring spruiker exactly what he wanted – lots of free publicity.
What followed this prediction was five years of major price increases in our two biggest cities and mostly steady markets in the rest of Australia.
Another US pontificator, Harry S Dent, has visited Australia several times in the past seven years and each time – including in 2011 and 2014 – has warned that our property prices would crash in the next 12 months.
Each time Australian media has treated him as a credible commentator, with oodles of free profile, notwithstanding his growing track record of getting his forecasts about our real estate markets utterly wrong. I’m sure that next time he visits the same will happen again.
My Top 20 list also includes local economists who have made similar predictions within specific time frames, with the same success rate.
Some have claimed that our homes are over-valued according to their favoured economic model and therefore prices must fall. Others have stated that, back in the days of rising interest rates, that the higher cost of money would cause a collapse of property values.
The head of one of our major banks said in 2011 that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe would force down our property values, only to be followed by several years of strong price rises.
One high-profile and much-quoted Australian economist declared in 2005 that there would be no growth in our home values for the next 10 years. Ouch.
Also on the Top 20 list are commentators who rushed – in 2013 and 2014 - to be the first to declare the end of the price boom in Sydney and Melbourne. 
One of them was a senior official at the Reserve Bank, while another was a Morgan Stanley analyst who famously said, about three years too early: “If you’re an investor, you’ve missed the boat.”
So now we have the notorious 60 Minutes debacle, with yet another forecast of property values falling 40 percent, based on nothing but a pre-conceived notion to boost ratings.
I note that virtually every independent commentator who has reacted on the 60 Minutes program has said that the forecast scenario was highly unlikely or plain silly. Even the key analysts featured on the Channel 9 program have claimed that their views were misrepresented through selective editing. I spoke to one of those who was featured on the program and he was horrified at the outcome.
I was approached by 60 Minutes in mid-August to take part in the program. But they dropped the planned interview when I told them I disagreed with their basic premise of collapsing property markets.
This is not how journalism is meant to work. In true journalism, you do your research and conduct your interviews - and then you come to some conclusions and decide your headline. 60 Minutes did it backwards by deciding the headline and then seeking comment that supported it.
I complained to the ABC television program Media Watch and last week they did a segment pointing out the many flaws in the 60 Minutes segment.
I’m sure the 60 Minutes program will feature prominently next time I update my Top 20 Worst Predictions list, with the same level of success as the many doomsday forecasters who have preceded them.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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The 20 worst crash predictions about the Australian property market: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Whenever a major research firm publishes its latest data on the movement in capital city house prices, media presents that data as fact. 
It also, often, makes sweeping conclusions about the meaning of the figures, relative to affordability, the state of the market and the impact on consumers.
The next firm to publish data will receive the same media treatment: the figures are factual, therefore this is what is means for the market and for buyers and sellers.
The problem is: the two sets of data are quite different and, in some cases, contradictory.
By the time figures have been published from five different sources - the ABS, the REIA, SQM Research, Domain and the ever-present but often-puzzling CoreLogic are regularly featured - consumers who have been absorbing all the data will be massively confused and terribly misinformed.
It’s rare for all sources to agree on how much city markets are rising or falling - or, indeed, whether markets are rising or falling.
According to CoreLogic’s latest data, Melbourne house prices are lower than 12 months ago - but both the ABS and SQM Research disagree. They both have Melbourne about 3% higher than a year ago.
It’s a similar situation with Adelaide: SQM says the Adelaide housing market is down a little, but the ABS and CoreLogic says it’s risen marginally.
All three sources believe the Hobart market has risen in the past year, but there is considerable disagreement on how much: CoreLogic says 10.7%, the ABS 15.5% but SQM claims it’s only 6.4%.
There’s a substantial difference there: SQM says there’s only moderate growth in the Tasmanian capital but the official government source, the ABS, portrays a boom market.
CoreLogic tells us the Perth housing market is still in the negative but SQM claims that the downturn is over and prices have started to rise again.
Canberra is either the strongest capital city market in the nation, up 10.4% in the annual terms, or it’s rising only moderately at 2% or 3% - depending on whose figures you believe.
SQM says the average scenario across the eight capital cities is an annual rise of 2.6%, but the ABS says there’s been no meaningful change, while CoreLogic says the national market is down 2%.
Newspaper headlines keep telling that prices are falling across Australia, because they tend to publish the CoreLogic figures, but both the ABS and SQM disagree.
Both those sources have prices higher than a year ago in five of the eight capital cities, and SQM has the national average up 2.6%, but you get quite a different conclusion is you focus on the CoreLogic data.
The only matters on which the three major sources broadly agree is that the Darwin housing market is down about 4% and that the Brisbane house market is up by 1% or 2%.
The message for consumers is: don’t take price data published by media too seriously - and don’t base big financial decisions on the published data.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Terry Ryder

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