National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.

The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.

Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]

Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.

Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.

“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.

He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.

“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.

“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.

Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.

Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.

Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.

The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]

Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more internation and domestic flights.

Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.

Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

Joel Robinson

NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.

The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.

The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" />

According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”

The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.

The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.

Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.

“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.

The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.

The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" />

The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.

“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.

According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.

“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.

“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”

The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.

Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.

&nbsp;

The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" />

St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.

Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.

The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.

More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.

First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-5" data-turn="user" data-turn-id="e65dbe94-e3b6-47f7-b62a-9cbb30c9bf79" data-turn-id-container="e65dbe94-e3b6-47f7-b62a-9cbb30c9bf79" dir="auto">Time &amp; Place’s plans to transform the former David Jones factory building in Surry Hills into a mixed-use residential precinct have gone on exhibition through the NSW Government’s In-fill Affordable Housing pathway.</section>

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-6" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:f4d533b7-64a5-413d-86fd-5c99649c2b73-2" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:f4d533b7-64a5-413d-86fd-5c99649c2b73-2" dir="auto">
The Marlborough House proposal, lodged for the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marlborough-house-47-97-marlborough-street-surry-hills-nsw-2010">47-97 Marlborough Street</a> site, would see the adaptive reuse of the heritage-listed warehouse building alongside the construction of new residential additions and a separate apartment building on the northern portion of the site.

The proposal seeks approval for 172 apartments across three buildings, including 15 per cent affordable housing managed by a community housing provider for at least 15 years from occupation.

<img alt="Marlborough" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5d1d3c2a-bf13-47d6-a335-7c01102cdee1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.36%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=cjMYrbR.BLUlWH4dar0RVDDo0bG.u2YT" />

Interior view from the Northern Building Penthouse overlooking the park

&nbsp;

The redevelopment is planned for the prominent 3,413 sqm site bounded by Marlborough Street, Goodlet Street and Lansdowne Street, directly opposite Eddie Ward Park and around 200 metres from the Surry Hills light rail stop.

Time &amp; Place acquired the former David Jones building in 2024, marking the first time the property had changed hands in around 50 years.

Designed by Wardle, the proposal centres around the adaptive reuse of the former David Jones factory, originally constructed between 1913 and 1935 in the Inter-War Chicagoesque architectural style.

Wardle noted in its Architectural Design Report that the building “occupies a significant place in the industrial and cultural history of Surry Hills” and at its peak was “the largest department store manufacturing facility in Australia, employing over 800 people and fuelling the growth of Sydney’s fashion and retail industries.”

The practice said the project positions itself “not as an isolated intervention, but as a contributor to the civic, social, and architectural grain of the precinct.”

The proposal would deliver 75 apartments within the retained southern heritage building, 59 apartments within the central addition, and a further 38 apartments within the new northern building fronting Lansdowne Street.

Planning documents show the scheme would comprise a mix of heritage apartments, new-build apartments, townhouses and penthouses.

<img alt="Marlborough" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="57758518-40a3-4b83-958c-d06e96a2cffa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.42%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VerlX9ST5xgBi8.1_YRsqdWTJeT6ygjs" />Interior View of the Heritage Building Apartment

The development would also include a ground-floor retail tenancy on the corner of Marlborough and Lansdowne streets, rooftop communal open space, a landscaped pedestrian link along the western edge of the site, and basement parking accessed from Lansdowne Street via a car stacker system.

&nbsp;

The scheme emerged from a competitive design process run by Urbis, with Wardle ultimately selected as the winning architect ahead of FJC Studio, TZG, Architectus and Wilkinson Eyre.

The Design Integrity Panel later described several aspects of the Wardle scheme as fundamental to the project, including “the stepped character of the new addition to the north of the site”, the landscaped western pedestrian link, and the “garden arrival” experience separating the original Marlborough House from the heritage addition.

Wardle’s design heavily references the site’s industrial and heritage history, while also responding to the surrounding Surry Hills streetscape.

The Architectural Design Report describes Surry Hills as “a finely grained neighbourhood with beautiful and expressive brickworks throughout the suburb,” with the proposal introducing a material palette intended to sit comfortably alongside the existing warehouse fabric and neighbouring terraces.

The report also outlines the project’s relationship with Eddie Ward Park and the broader landscape context of the area.

“Marlborough House occupies a site of deep cultural memory and the neighbouring Eddie Ward Park is of local ecological significance, where natural systems, topography, and stories have long shaped human experience,” Wardle noted in the report.

The architects said the proposal sought to “rebind built form to Country” through landscape, materiality and the adaptive reuse of the heritage structure.

<img alt="Marlborough House" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9ae3f2f9-c85f-477a-a6f8-b43f6cb97c41" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.53%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=B.qUCLqRvJOR.n9CvYcTpaknIX9LuqKZ" />

The project is also being progressed under the NSW Government’s in-fill affordable housing provisions, allowing developments that include affordable housing to access additional height and floor space incentives.

Under the plans, 2,593 sqm of the project’s floor space would be dedicated to affordable housing, slightly exceeding the required 15 per cent threshold.

In its Design Excellence Strategy, Urbis said the project aimed to “sensitively adapt and enhance the heritage-listed building on site through alterations and additions that preserve its historical significance” while delivering “high-quality market and infill affordable housing development in Surry Hills.”

Time &amp; Place has been one of the most active developers nationally in the last 12 to 24 months. Late last year they completed&nbsp;The Queensbridge in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/southbank-vic-3006">Southbank</a>, a mixed-use tower with 353 apartments and a hotel. They are currently selling Park Modern, 246 apartments near the famous Botanic Gardens in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/south-melbourne-vic-3205">South Melbourne</a>, and have future projects, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-wilmot-173-burke-road-28-hope-street-glen-iris-vic-3146">The Wilmot</a>&nbsp;in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>, the redevelopment of the Northcote Plaza, and another tower in South Melbourne.

The developer broke into Sydney just a few years ago with Two Tides in Manly. They have another project nearby, which is at the ultra-luxury end of the market on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/shoreline-manly-beach-89-90-north-steyne-manly">North Steyne</a>, fronting the beach.

It is also continuing to work through the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-time-place-settles-on-design-for-the-chimes-potts-point-redevelopment">redevelopment of The Chimes building</a> on Macleay Street in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/potts-point-nsw-2011">Potts Point</a>, as well as a project on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/time-place-to-take-on-mosman-apartment-market">Mosman's Redan Street</a>.
</section>

First look: Time & Place unveils Marlborough House redevelopment designs for former David Jones warehouse in Surry Hills

The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.

Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.

The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.

The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.

Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.

The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.

The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.

Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.

Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.

The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.

Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.

Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
It’s been fascinating watching the ripple effect spread real estate growth throughout regional Victoria.
While the Melbourne market has been in decline in the past 18 months or so (generally speaking - some sectors have strongly resisted price decreases), there’s been notable price growth happening in Victoria markets outside the state capital.
Over the past 12-18 months, I have nominated Regional Victoria as the strongest market in the nation. Regional Victoria has been – and still is - one of the nation’s outstanding jurisdictions on price performance.
The standout feature in my latest analysis of sales activity and price trends is that locations a greater distance from Melbourne are now enjoying significant growth in prices.
Initially, most of the growth markets were locations within commutable distance of the Melbourne metropolitan area. It started with Geelong (pictured above) and, just outside the south-eastern outskirts of the metro area, the key towns of Cardinia Shire, Pakenham (below) and Officer.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/16/Pakenham.jpg" alt=""> Pakenham from above.
Then we saw Ballarat and the hill change towns a little north of Melbourne start to grow, as well as the towns of Baw Baw Shire in the east (Warragul and Drouin).
More recently, Bendigo in the north and the towns of the Latrobe Valley in the east have got on board.
And now growth markets are being found in locations more distant from the state capital, including Wodonga, Wangaratta, Echuca and Mildura. Some of the towns of East Gippsland (where I was last week, speaking at two events in busy Bairnsdale) are showing signs of growth as well.
My analysis of price trends shows that 84% of Regional Victoria markets have recorded median price growth in the past 12 months. Price decline of any magnitude is rare: I can find only one regional location where the median house price has fallen more than 5%.
Six out of 10 Regional Victoria markets have recorded median price growth above 5% in the past year – a total of 96 strong growth markets in the state outside of Melbourne, of which 35 have had double-digit growth in their median house prices. Another 39 markets have recorded price growth under 5%.
Ballarat is the standout on price performance. Four suburbs have had annual growth in their median house prices of 20% or more – Mt Pleasant (29%), Brown Hill (22%), Golden Point (21%) and Wendouree (20%).
But the No.1 location for annual price growth is the town of Maldon (below) in the Mt Alexander LGA north of Melbourne, where the median has risen 30% to $525,000 in past 12 months.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/16/Maldon.jpg" alt=""> Maldon high street.
Notable price growth is happening elsewhere around the state: locations with annual median price growth between 15% and 20% include Cowes and Wonthaggi in the Bass Coast LGA; Geelong suburbs Drysdale, Whittington and St Leonards; Woodend in the Macedon Ranges LGA; Venus Bay in South Gippsland; Loch Sport in the Wellington LGA; Koo Wee Rup in Cardinia Shire; and Daylesford in the Hepburn LGA.
Many of these markets, especially Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo, are attracting buyers out of Melbourne, as both investors and home-buyers seek affordability and/or better rental yields.
And new growth markets are emerging further afield.
Wangaratta (median house price $315,000) has emerged as a market where sales demand has grown steadily over the past two years. Quarterly sales have risen from 80-85 two years ago to around 120 more recently. Its median price has risen 11% in the past 12 months.
Further north at the NSW border, Wodonga (median $340,000) presents as a solid market with growing strength.
In the western precinct of the state, Port Fairy has growing sales activity and its median house price has increased 7% to $615,000 in the past year.
Other precincts which show promise of joining the general growth trend in Regional Victoria include the LGAs of Wellington (where Sale has rising sales activity), Latrobe (including Traralgon and Morwell), and East Gippsland (where Bairnsdale, Paynesville and Lakes Entrance have steady activity, with signs of prices rising).
All those municipalities are east of Melbourne, where growth is gradually rippling out from previous up markets in the LGAs of Cardinia (Pakenham and Officer) and Baw Baw (Warragul and Drouin).
But the growth isn’t just a reaction to the ripple effect and markets following the lead of Melbourne’s recent boom. Markets don’t rise unless something is happening in the local environment – such as a busy local economy, new business ventures, improved transport links and/or new spending on infrastructure.
The background is strong. The state of Victoria is the No.1 ranked economy in the nation, according to CommSec’s State of the States report, and continues to lead the nation on population growth. 
The states leads Australia on a number of other key indicators, including income growth, improvement in the jobless rate, building approvals, uplift in housing affordability and the number of first-home buyers active in the market.
All of that is helping to create the environment in which locations across Victoria have rising property values.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

More regional Victoria areas seeing over five percent yearly gains: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Media places undue reliance on auction clearance rates as a barometer of all things real estate. Some commentators appear to regard them as the prime measure of the health of our markets. Even the Reserve Bank seems addicted to the weekly reports on clearance rates.
It’s a flawed policy for many reasons. The figures themselves are notoriously unreliable, if not bogus; they tell us nothing worthwhile about the vast majority of locations in the nation; and even in the two biggest cities where auctions are prevalent, they’re a snapshot of only narrow sectors of the overall market.
Auctions are big in Sydney and Melbourne but are not prominent elsewhere. Even in the two big cities, they tend to focus on the prestige end of the market, so don’t necessarily inform us about the wider scenario.
Until the recent revival, we had a year of poor clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne, but this failed to reveal key elements of markets within those cities. In Melbourne, the top end suburbs were suffering big declines in their median prices, but pricing was holding up strongly in many of the outer-ring areas such as Melton and Cranbourne.
In Sydney, the ultra top end (suburbs with median house prices above $2 million) did not suffer price decline. Many of those suburbs have median prices higher than a year ago. The faltering auction clearance rates told us nothing about that or about the solid resistance to price decline (minor drops only in median prices) in many of the outer-ring areas. Meanwhile, prices in Sydney’s middle market dropped a lot.
Elsewhere in capital city Australia and throughout regional Australia, auctions are irrelevant as a market barometer. Brisbane, Perth, Hobart, Canberra, Darwin, Newcastle, Wollongong, Ballarat, Bendigo, the Sunshine Coast, the Gold Coast and elsewhere - despite the best efforts of real estate agents, auctions are not the prime choice for vendors across the broad sweep of the nation.
So auction clearance rates this week in Sydney and Melbourne tell as nothing about the health of markets nationwide. The media’s focus on this reflects the reality that most of our major media comes out of the two biggest cities and writers are obsessed with those markets, to the exclusion of all other locations.
So for several years we heard about a “national property boom” that never existed. Then for the past couple of year we’ve read about a “national market downturn” that also never happened. And now, god help us, media is spruiking a “national property market revival” which is also fundamentally about Sydney and Melbourne.
Brisbane isn’t “recovering” because it didn’t have a major downturn, nor Adelaide or Canberra - or most of the rest of the nation.
It’s worth noting that 16 million Australians - the vast majority - don’t live in either Sydney or Melbourne.
The biggest problem with clearance rates is that they’re the worst kind of dodgy data. Clearance rate figures abound with furphies - often sales that did not occur under the hammer at auction are claimed as auction sales. There’s also the reality that agents are more likely to report the results of auctions that are successful than those that are not.
A 75% clearance rate means that 75% of the auctions reported by the agents allegedly resulted in a sale under the hammer. But the figures take no account of the auctions that took place during the weekend for which the results were not reported.
Media generally reports the preliminary clearance rates. The final clearance rates, once more results are in, are always significantly lower but seldom are reported. 
In the past I have researched clearance rates and found that the published figures are always much higher than the true figure, because so many of the unsuccessful auctions were not reported. I estimated that a true clearance rate was usually 12 to 15 percentage points lower than the claims in the media.
More recently, Louis Christopher of SQM Research has researched this area and came to similar conclusions. So, if media reports an auction clearance rate of 75%, the true figure would be closer to 60%.
The research conducted by Christopher’s SQM Research team noted that, as the Sydney and Melbourne booms wound down over the past 1-2 years, the number of unreported auction results rose. Christopher said, based on his latest research and also analysis conducted in the past, that around 70-75% of unreported auctions were failed auctions. 
On one weekend in Sydney last year that was studied by Christopher, the reported clearance rate was 76%. But 239 of the scheduled 836 auctions were not reported. 
If we assume, as Christopher suggests, that 70% of the unreported auctions did not achieve a sale, then the true clearance rate was 63% - well below the reported 76%.
On the same weekend, media reported a 77% clearance rate for Melbourne. But 256 auctions went unreported and the true clearance rate was 65%.
So, while clearance rates have a part to play in analysing major markets, they need to be considered alongside other data. In isolation, they’re not particularly useful.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy64323%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy64323%20=%20addy64323%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'%5C''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy64323%20+%20'%5C'%3E');%20document.write(addy64323);%20document.write('%3C%5C/a%3E');%20//--%3E%5Cn%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20document.write('%3Cspan%20style=%5C'display:%20none;%5C'%3E');%20//--%3E%20%3C/script%3EThis%20email%20address%20is%20being%20protected%20from%20spambots.%20You%20need%20JavaScript%20enabled%20to%20view%20it.%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20document.write('%3C/');%20document.write('span%3E');%20//--%3E%20%3C/script%3E"></a><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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How useful are auction clearance rates? Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Anyone who reads my reports will know I’m finding many of the best markets across the nation in Regional Australia.
Most of the strongest markets for sales activity and price growth in the past two years have been found outside the capital cities and the regional areas of Victoria, NSW, Tasmania and Queensland continue to present large numbers of growth numbers.
I tell seminar audiences around Australia this is a good thing for investors, because the regions have lower prices and higher rental yields. And, if you choose your locations well, you’re well-placed for good capital growth as well.
It’s a message that most Australians haven’t been getting, because the major research firms focus primarily on the capital cities and major media obsesses over the markets in Melbourne and Sydney.
As I told seminar audiences in Mackay recently, Central Queensland cities will never feature in national media unless there’s a cyclone or flood. Mackay, in fact, is a growth market with low vacancies, strong rentals and rising prices, boosted by positive events in the local economy.
But gradually, it seems, Australia is waking up to the opportunities presented by markets in Regional Australia. 
Agency network PRDnationwide published an August report which predicted that regional centres are set to outperform capital cities over the next six months as affordable prices and higher returns lure buyers.
It said regional areas generally had fared better than metropolitan markets recently and that performance would continue over the second half of the year.
PRDnationwide’s national research manager Asti Mardiasmo said: “Regional areas are more insulated than bigger cities due to the increased infrastructure developments, cheaper house prices and big businesses moving their head offices to regional areas,” Mardiasmo said.
This correlates with Hotspotting research which has identified rising sales activity and good price growth in many of the regional markets in the major eastern states, as well as Tasmania and Western Australia.
The monthly reports of national valuation firm Herron Todd White have also recorded uplift in many of the nation’s regional markets. 
Its latest National Property Clock suggests that markets are rising or recovering in regional centres such as Tamworth, Dubbo, Albury and Bathurst in NSW; Townsville, Mackay, Cairns, Gladstone, the Sunshine Coast, Hervey Bay and Emerald in Queensland; Karratha and Port Hedland in WA; Shepparton and Wodonga in Victoria; and Launceston in Tasmania.
Markets at the bottom of the cycle ahead of recovery include Alice Springs, Rockhampton and Toowoomba.
Hotspotting would add a number of key regional cities to the list of strong markets, including Ballarat and Bendigo in Victoria, and Orange, Wagga Wagga, Goulburn, Queanbeyan, the Hunter Valley and the Tweed region in NSW.
In the Winter edition of the Price Predictor Index, 30 of the National Top 50 Super-charged Suburbs list were regional locations.
Brisbane-based researcher Propertyology published an analysis of population trends across the nation and suggested the areas where property markets benefited the most from interstate and intrastate migration were regional cities like the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast and Geelong.
A recent report by the Regional Australia Institute, based on a research project by the University of South Australia and Southern Cross University, urged Australians to consider the regions as an alternative to the major cities - it says many regional towns offer jobs, affordable housing, lifestyle and scope for economic growth, as well as less congestion and a lower cost of living.
The university research project compared wages, employment, congestion and house prices among outer suburban and metropolitan areas, and the regions.
The study found that while wages might be less in the regions compared to cities, job prospects are often at least as good and the cost of living is lower than the big cities. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Australian investors waking up to regional property market opportunities: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Real estate consumers often fixate on the idea that individual suburbs will do better than their neighbours. I’m constantly asked for my opinion of one suburb or another, on the basis that the target location has special qualities and it will out-perform others.
The reality is that it’s rare for one suburb to star while its neighbours under-perform. Market performance tends to happen in clusters, with a group of suburbs with similar qualities being influenced by the same factors, such as a major new piece of infrastructure.
So at Hotspotting we tend to think in terms of Local Government Areas. Our quarterly editions of The Price Predictor Index focus primarily on municipalities, looking for patterns of growth within clusters of suburbs.
The list below, my estimation of the leading LGAs in the nation for rising buyer demand, may surprise because of the number of precincts within Adelaide that feature – but if you study the numbers and the trends, it’s evident that Adelaide is the most consistent of markets and has more momentum that other capital cities.
It has a number of precincts with above-average price growth and the potential for future strong performance.
Here, then, is my national top 10 municipalities in terms of growth momentum (listed in alphabetical order):-
Belconnen ACT 
I regard Canberra as the strongest real estate economy in Australia, with the nation’s highest average incomes and the lowest unemployment. It is challenging Victoria for the No.1 ranking on population growth, it has low vacancies and it often leads on rental growth. The Belconnen District is Canberra’s No.1 jurisdiction for suburbs with rising sales activity. This precinct has a number of affordable suburbs, vacancies are well below 1%, rental yields are solid and some suburbs have grown their median prices 6-7% in the past 12 months. 
Bendigo VIC 
Bendigo is now the leading market in Victoria in terms of the number of suburbs with rising demand, having overtaken other strong markets like Geelong and Ballarat. It’s attracting both home-buyers and investors out of Melbourne, chasing affordability and/or better rental yields in a growth centre. Many Bendigo suburbs have median prices in the $300,000s, emphasising the city’s affordability. Bendigo is rising because of its own inherent strengths - including a strong and diverse economy - and its strong links to Melbourne. 
Brisbane North QLD 
The Brisbane North precinct (the northern suburbs of the Brisbane City Council area) is the most active part of the Brisbane market, which is poised for stronger growth. This middle-ring area has 10 suburbs with rising sales demand, including Alderley where quarterly sales have been 28-37-48-50-52 in the past year or so: its median prices have risen 5% for houses and 22% for units. Other growth suburbs include Boondall, Chermside West, Everton Park, Kedron, McDowall, Sandgate, Stafford, Stafford Heights and Wavell Heights. These are all middle-market areas with median prices in the $600,000s and $700,000s. 
Charles Sturt SA 
The Charles Sturt LGA extends north-west from central Adelaide out to the beaches and includes a range of good suburbs, including eight where sales activity is rising steadily. They include inner-city Brompton (where quarterly sales have been 23, 32, 38 and 50) as well as middle-market suburbs like Findon, Seaton, Flinders Park (quarterly sales 22, 25, 25, 32, 35 and 38), Woodville South and Fulham Gardens. Henley Beach and West Beach also have growth momentum. Good price growth is happening in this area, including Henley Beach South (median house price up 15% to $985,000). 
Joondalup WA 
The Joondalup LGA continues to be a stand-out for its steadiness and resilience against the Perth downturn and is poised to lead the city’s market recovery. It now has eight suburbs with rising sales momentum, which makes it No.1 in Perth and among the best of the nation’s LGAs. The suburbs of this LGA are based around the Joondalup CBD, which is a centre for infrastructure and services for Perth’s north. Growth markets include Burns Beach, Duncraig, Edgewater, Greenwood, Joondalup, Mullaloo and Padbury, many of which offer good affordability. 
Marion SA 
The Marion LGA, a middle-market area in the south-west of Adelaide which has been a market leader for the past 18 months, is once again a standout market. It has nine suburbs with rising sales patterns, including Ascot Park, Edwardstown, Glengowrie, Hallett Cove, Marion, O’Halloran Hill and Seacombe Gardens. Warradale makes our National Top 50 list of rising suburbs, with quarterly sales of 30-36-41: its median house price of $595,000 is typical of the Marion LGA’s middle-ring affordability. 
Melville WA 
The City of Melville in Perth’s inner south is one of the precincts leading the market fightback in the WA capital. It has seven growth markets and seven consistent performers. Suburbs with rising sales demand include Attadale, Bull Creek, Kardinya, Leeming, Mt Pleasant and Palmyra - some of which are million-dollar suburbs but most are middle-market areas. The star is Willagee, which makes our National Top 50 list with quarterly sales of 25-39-46-51 - and the latest quarter also shows sign of growth in the median house price ($520,000). 
Port Adelaide Enfield SA 
The Port Adelaide Enfield LGA emerged in 2018 as an up-and-coming market in the SA capital - and continues to be one of the busiest precincts in Adelaide. Our latest survey reveals seven suburbs with rising activity, including Croydon Park, Dernancourt, Greenacres, North Haven, Rosewater and Royal Park. Dernancourt features in our National Top 50 list. This precinct is being boosted by major local events, including the massive program of building vessels for the Australian Navy and ongoing development around the port. The Osborne Naval Shipyard is undergoing a $535 million upgrade to accommodate the building of 40 new Defence craft; 500 public servants are being moved here; and a new rail spur is proposed to link the Port’s commercial centre and the Dock One residential precinct to the Adelaide CBD. 
Onkaparinga SA 
As we have observed many times, Onkaparinga always features prominently in our analysis of the Adelaide market. It currently has seven suburbs with growth momentum – including Aldinga Beach (where quarterly sales have been 54-63-67-70), which features in our National Top 50 list of supercharged suburbs. Other growth markets include Christies Beach, Hackham, Happy Valley, Old Reynella and Seaford. This LGA ticks a lot of boxes for investors: it has lifestyle, affordability, improved transport links, economic growth drivers, population growth and proximity to major jobs nodes. 
Sunshine Coast QLD 
The Sunshine Coast continues to be the strongest of the Queensland markets, both in terms of rising sales activity and price growth. It’s rising while the more high-profile Gold Coast market is falling. The Sunshine Coast has 10 suburbs with rising buyer demand and another 13 have consistent sales activity. Landsborough and Little Mountain feature on our National Top 50 list. Over 60% of Regional Queensland markets have median prices higher than a year ago. Of the higher growth markets, 21 have increased by more than 10%, and 10 of those 21 locations are Sunshine Coast suburbs, led by Eumundi (28%), Sunshine Beach (15%), Twin Waters (15%) and Wurtulla (15%). 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Australia's top 10 property price growth areas in 2019: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Australia is strongly tilted towards the capital cities. That’s where the bulk of the population lives, where economies are strongest (generally speaking) and where the greatest share of property sales take place. So, usually, the quarterly editions of The Price Predictor Index published by Hotspotting feature more city locations with growing sales momentum than regional ones. 
But the Winter 2019 edition has the regions are out-performing the capital cities. Regional NSW has far more rising markets than Sydney, Regional Victoria has way more growth than Melbourne and Regional Queensland is outdoing Brisbane. 
Nationally, it’s line ball: we have identified 137 growth markets in the capital cities and 137 in the regional areas. This is a very strong performance by regional Australia and explains why so many of the nation’s growth markets are found in the regions - places like Ballarat, Bendigo, Wagga Wagga, Orange, Mackay and the Sunshine Coast.
Most of the outstanding individual locations currently are in regional areas. They dominate our National Top 50 list of Supercharged Suburbs. Thirty of the featured locations are in regional areas and only 20 are in capital cities. 
Regional NSW provides 13 of the Top 50 locations and Regional Queensland provides 10. There are no contenders from Melbourne and only two from Sydney (but Adelaide provides eight suburbs to the list and Perth six). 
Examples of country NSW centres that have strong growth momentum include the Port Stephens area, Wagga Wagga and Ballina. Regional Queensland areas to feature include Rockhampton and Toowoomba, as well as the buoyant Sunshine Coast market. 
As I observed in this column last week, Regional NSW is not following Sydney’s trend. While most sectors (but not all) of the Sydney market have been in decline, the cities and towns of Regional NSW have delivered many growth markets in the past two years.
The Winter edition of the Price Predictor Index also builds on previous versions in providing hints of recovery in Regional Queensland markets. When the resources boom was raging, investors piled into markets like Gladstone, Moranbah, Emerald, Mackay and Rockhampton - and enjoyed big growth for a short period, before the bubble burst. Now many of these locations are rising again. 
Our National Top 50 list includes Mackay, Rockhampton, Emerald and Toowoomba - indeed, the list has three locations from the Rockhampton LGA. This report also contains further evidence of recovery in Gladstone. (but I continue to urge caution about investing in places where the local economy is largely driven by the mining sector).
Regional Australia also contributes strongly to our National Top 50 list of most consistent markets: half of the locations featured for the steady demand they attract are in the regions outside the capital cities.
They include places like Mildura, a regional centre in rural Victoria that you would seldom hear about: in most quarters in the past three years, Mildura has delivered between 200 and 220 house sales – occasionally slightly fewer and sometimes a little more. Its median house price rose 11% in the past year.
The Raymond Terrace market in the Port Stephens LGA in NSW has recorded between 60 and 76 sales in every quarter for the five years – and its long-term capital growth average is 5% per year, confirming that consistent markets deliver steady growth.
Regional markets also stand out in our analysis of price data. Australian consumers seldom hear about it because media focuses so much on the biggest cities and because most of the data published is generalised in nature: a single growth/decline figure to describe the entire nation or a single figure which purports to depict the market in massive cities like Sydney and Melbourne. 
Behind those sweeping generalisations lie the real stories about markets - and in many cases there’s a lot more real estate growth going on than anyone realises. 
Nine out of ten locations in Tasmania have median prices higher than last year. It’s similar for 60% of Regional NSW, 61% of Regional Queensland and 80% of Regional Victoria.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Regional Australian property outperforming capital cities: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The pre-election negativity that hit real estate in the first half of 2019 impacted previously busy Regional NSW markets, with the lowest number of growth markets in two years. It nevertheless remains one of the nation’s busiest market jurisdictions. 
And price performance has been good in many locations, with 60% of Regional NSW markets delivering median price growth in the past 12 months.
Regional NSW continues to provide a stark contrast to Sydney. While many sectors of the Sydney market have been in decline, the cities and towns of Regional NSW have proved resilient – even though not as strong as in 2018.
Last year Hotspotting’s Spring 2018 survey found 70 locations with rising demand in Regional NSW and the Autumn 2019 identified 61 growth markets. But this latest Winter 2019 found only 40 growth markets – still solid by national standards but well down on the levels of the past year or two.
The sales data on which this survey is based pre-dates the Federal Election in mid-May and the subsequent positive events such as interest rate reductions, easier finance (the APRA changes) and the tax cuts.
So any locations that delivered rising sales activity in that pre-election climate have strong claims to being regarded as growth markets.
There are still growth markets in and around Newcastle (pictured above), although this market overall appears well past its peak. The Newcastle and Lake Macquarie LGAs both have suburbs with growing sales demand, but they are outnumbered by plateau markets.
But locations near Newcastle, such as the Port Stephens LGA, remain buoyant, led by Anna Bay, Medowie and Salamander Bay. Some sections of the Hunter Valley still have momentum, including Cessnock and Muswellbrook.
The same cannot be said for the Central Coast. Two years ago, this was the strongest market in NSW but it’s now well past its peak. Bateau Bay and Budgewoi still have some forward momentum, but the Central Coast now has 19 plateau markets and seven we classify as declining markets (including Toukley, Gwandalan, North Gosford, Point Frederick, San Remo and The Entrance). We note also the decline in median prices in many Central Coast locations.
Similarly, other regional centres close to Sydney have passed their peaks and started to decline, including Wollongong, the Southern Highlands and the Blue Mountains (although Katoomba remains busy). The Byron Bay market is another to have lost its mojo.
The growth markets in Regional NSW are now found further afield. The Tweed LGA at the Queensland border is particularly busy at the moment, headed by Casuarina, Kingscliff and Terranora. Quarterly sales in Kingscliff have been 59, 61, 67 and 70 – and its median house price has risen 19% to $1,025,000.
At the other end of the state, Wagga Wagga continues to be a market leader, led by upwardly mobile suburbs like Gobbagombalin, Kooringal and Lake Albert. Quarterly sales in Wagga Wagga (the suburb) have been 37, 39, 48 and 50 in the past 12 months – and its median price has started to rise, up 4% in the past 12 months.
And the Eurobodalla LGA in the South Coast region has some busy markets, notably Catalina and Malua Bay.
A large number of smaller and distant regional centres have growth markets, including Grafton, Forbes, Griffith, Wingham, Mudgee and Gulgong in the Mid Western LGA, Leeton, Lismore, Nambucca Heads and Young.
There has been plenty of price growth in Regional NSW markets, though not as prolific as in our previous survey.
Three months in our Autumn 2019 report we commented: “The vast majority of NSW Regional markets have price levels higher than 12 months ago – 85% of the locations in our survey have recorded growth in the past year.”
This Winter 2019 survey finds that 61% of house markets and 53% of unit markets have median prices higher than a year ago. 
Locations with strong price growth include three locations in the Tweed LGA – Casuarina (up 21% to $1,150,000), Kingscliff (up 19% to $1,025,000) and Tweed Heads South (up 15% to $585,000).
But the biggest growth has been recorded by Berry in the Shoalhaven region, up 25% to $1,300,000.
A number of apartment markets have recorded median price growth above 20%, including Nambucca Heads, Ballina, Sawtell and Taree.
At the other end of the scale, many Central Coast locations have recorded declines in their median prices. House markets to fall include those in Wyoming (8%), Woy Woy (5%), Umina Beach (6%), North Gosford (7%), Long Jetty (9%), Wyong (6%) and Gorokan (8%). 
Among the apartment markets, those to drop include Woy Woy (6%), Toukley (9%), Umina Beach (9%), East Gosford (12%), Gorokan (8%), Terrigal (6%) and Berkeley Vale (19%).
Some of key markets in Wingecarribee LGA in the Southern Highlands region have dropped also, including Bowral (6%) and Mittagong (10%).
Suffolk Park at Byron Bay has recorded a 17% fall in its median house price to $1,050,000.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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2019 property price growth markets in Regional NSW are now found further afield: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Adelaide is challenging Canberra as the most consistent market in capital city Australia. It keeps delivering good sales activity and above-average results on house prices – and continues to be our most under-rated market.
You’d never know any of this, as real estate consumers, because of the way mainstream media reports real estate – a focus on median price data to the exclusion of all other market barometers, sweeping generalisations which often discuss Australia as a single market, an obsession with Sydney and Melbourne as the only markets of importance, an annoying tendency to zero in on negatives, and a host of other problems.
Media seldom bothers to discuss Adelaide and when it gets the occasional brief mention it’s usually a generalised “Adelaide prices grew only 1% in the past year” or “the median house price for Adelaide fell 0.3% in the latest quarter”.
This tells us nothing of value – and disguises the multiplicity of scenarios playing out in the markets of the South Australia capital city.
So, for something with a little more depth, that tells you something that actually has value, consider the following:
In the five years Hotspotting has been conducting quarterly surveys of sales activity and price trends, Adelaide has never delivered a poor result. Most cities have had peaks and troughs in that time, but Adelaide just keeps on producing steady markets with consistent demand. 
Seven out of ten Adelaide suburbs have experienced growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months, many of them with rises above 5%. 
The list of suburbs with growth above 15% is dominated by top-end locations, a positive sign for the market overall, which we believe is poised for a significant growth phase.
Hotspotting’s Winter survey has identified 64 Adelaide suburbs with rising sales momentum, the second highest quarterly result for the city since we started the surveys. Over the past couple of years, the number of growth suburbs has been 45, 58, 61, 71, 60, 62 and 64.
Adelaide continues to rank well ahead of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, as well as the recovering Perth market, in terms of the number of growth suburbs – and ahead of most state regional jurisdictions (where many of the strong growth markets are found at present).
There are 10 Local Government Areas across the Adelaide metropolitan area with three or more suburbs with upwardly-mobile markets.
The Marion LGA, a middle-market area in the south-west of Adelaide which has been a market leader for the past 18 months, is once again a standout – one that ranks nationally. It has nine suburbs with rising sales patterns, including Ascot Park, Edwardstown, Glengowrie, Hallett Cove, Marion, O’Halloran Hill and Seacombe Gardens.
The Charles Sturt LGA, which extends north-west from central Adelaide out to the beach areas, is close behind with eight rising suburbs. They include inner-city Brompton (where quarterly sales have been 23, 32, 38 and 50) as well as middle-market suburbs like Findon, Seaton, Flinders Park (quarterly sales 22, 25, 25, 32, 35 and 38), Woodville South and Fulham Gardens. Henley Beach and West Beach also have growth momentum.
Port Adelaide Enfield continues to be a leading precinct, with seven growth suburbs including Croydon Park, Dernancourt, Greenacres, North Haven, Rosewater and Royal Park.
Onkaparinga, which always features in our Adelaide analysis, also has seven suburbs with growth momentum – including Aldinga Beach (where quarterly sales have been 54, 63, 67 and 70), Christies Beach, Hackham, Happy Valley, Old Reynella and Seaford.
Six municipalities have between three and five rising markets each: the Burnside, Holdfast Bay, Mitcham, Salisbury, Unley and West Torrens LGAs.
While sources such as CoreLogic and SQM Research often report annual growth of only 1-2% in Adelaide house prices, these generalised figures disguise individual areas which have done better. Our suburb-by-suburb analysis shows that 70% of Adelaide suburbs have median house prices higher than a year ago - and almost half of those have grown by more than 5%.
Of the 189 Adelaide suburban markets analysed, 54 have grown 5% or more and 64 have increased by less than 5%. There are only 17 suburbs in the Adelaide metropolitan area where median house prices have fallen by more than 5%.
Many of the suburbs with the highest annual growth are towards the upper end of the Adelaide market, headed by North Adelaide (up 29% to $1,075,000), Somerton Park (up 27% to $955,000), Unley (up 14% to $990,000) and Henley Beach South (up 15% to $985,000). Aldgate and Beulah Park, with median house prices in the $800,000s, have both risen 15-16% in the past 12 months.
But there is strong growth also in other price ranges, including Mansfield Park (up 20% to $405,000), Elizabeth North (up 18% to $180,000), Underdale (up 16% to $665,000) and Broadview (up 15% to $570,000).
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
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Adelaide challenging Canberra as Australia's most consistent property market: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Hobart and Tasmania are national leaders on price growth – although analysis of the latest sales activity data suggests the market has passed its peak after two years of strong growth.
In terms of annual price growth, Tasmania remains the undisputed champion of Australia. Nine out of ten locations across the state have increased their median prices in the past year – and many of them have recorded double-digit growth.
Hotspotting has analysed house price data for 76 suburbs and towns in Tasmania: 69 of them (91%) have recorded growth in their median house prices in the past year. Of the 69 house markets with price growth, 56 have increased by more than 5%, including 35 which have risen 10% or more.
Only 9% of Tasmanian house markets have experienced decreases in median prices – and only one location has dropped by more than 5%.
In the Hobart metropolitan area, the suburbs of Austins Ferry, Chigwell, Gagebrok and Risdon Vale have all increased between 20% and 25% in the past 12 months.
In Launceston, price uplift has been led by East Launceston (17%), Newnham (12%), South Launceston (16%), Summerhill (12%) and West Launceston (12%). 
In other parts of regional Tasmania, Scottsdale and Upper Burnie have both recorded 15% rises in their median house prices.
There are also examples of exceptional growth in unit markets, where 81% of locations have rising prices.
Growth markets for apartments in Hobart include Bellerive (16%), Claremont (19%), Glenorchy (16%), New Town (18%) and West Moonah (20%) – but the highly-rated suburb of Lindisfarne is the standout, with its median apartment price rising 32% to $445,000, based on 45 sales in the past 12 months.
In Launceston, there have been 25-26% rises in median unit prices in Newnham and Prospect Vale.
Strong though those results are, they are a little less spectacular than our findings three months ago. In that previous report we said: “In Hobart, we can find no suburbs with falling prices and none with minor growth. All have increased by more than 5% in the past 12 months – and 80% of them are up at least 10%. A key feature is most have recorded rises in the latest quarter, which indicates prices are still growing.”
So the current data represents a strong result, indeed the strongest anywhere in Australia, but not as strong as three months ago. This confirms our overall conclusion that markets in Hobart and Tasmania have passed the peak in their cycles and are gradually winding down.
The strongest evidence of this comes from our analysis of quarterly sales activity. We have classified 16 locations as rising markets, the lowest number in any quarter since late in 2016. 
The rise of markets in Hobart, Launceston and other parts of Tasmania began with a steady uplift in sales activity early in 2017 and we have seen strong sales activity since then, leading to nation-leading price growth.
But now sales volumes are subsiding and the number of plateau markets across the state is the highest since we began our quarterly surveys five years ago. Indeed, the number of plateau markets in Tasmania, quarter-by-quarter in the past two years, has been 17, 30, 39, 39, 40, 43, 46 and 54 – a clear pattern showing the increase in the number of locations where sales activity has passed its peak.
There are still suburbs with growth markets (measured by sales volumes) in both Hobart and Launceston. In the Hobart metropolitan area, suburbs that still have growth momentum include Berriedale, Bridgewater, Rokeby, Sorell, Old Beach, Margate and Howrah.
In Launceston, the suburbs that still have forward momentum include Mowbray, Prospect and Newnham.
Elsewhere in the state, growth markets include Cygnet in the Huon Valley south of Hobart, George Town in the north of the state near Launceston, Longford in the Northern Midlands, and Smithton in the Circular Head LGA in the far north-west.
While all the recent evidence suggests Hobart and Tasmania are gradually winding down from the peak of the cycle, the key question is whether recent positive events at a national level (election result, APRA changes, lower interest rates, tax cuts, etc) will re-ignite the state’s mini-boom.
We’ll know more three months from now.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Tasmania passes property market peak after two years of growth: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Regional Queensland is becoming one of the nation’s most compelling markets. Rising numbers of locations have growth symptoms, both in terms of sales activity and price movements. Over 60% of Regional Queensland markets have median prices higher than a year ago, with apartment markets a standout.
The Sunshine Coast remains the No.1 market in the state, but other growth markets are emerging. Increasingly we are seeing recovery signs in places that were previously in downturn, including the long-suffering Gladstone market.
The one major contradiction to the overall growth scenario is the Gold Coast, which had some uplift in the lead-up to the Commonwealth Games but has faded since. In Hotspotting’s Winter survey of sales activity, we can’t find any growth momentum in Gold Coast locations – most suburbs are “plateau” markets and there is a growing number of suburbs ranked as “decline” markets.
The Sunshine Coast stands in stark contrast to the Gold Coast. The Sunshine Coast has one of the nation’s leading growth economies and its real estate market is thriving as a result.
In our previous (Autumn 2019) quarterly survey, we observed that Mackay was challenging the Sunshine Coast as the leading Regional Queensland market. That situation has re-adjusted in this latest survey, with the Sunshine Coast still entrenched as the state leader and Mackay not as prominent.
Emerging centres with improvement in their markets include Cairns, Rockhampton and the Fraser Coast, while major regional cities like Toowoomba and Townsville may be on the cusp of new growth phases.
The number of growth markets in Regional Queensland has trended higher in the past 18 months. This is despite the decline of the Gold Coast. Recovery in resources-related regional centres like Mackay, Emerald and Rockhampton is helping, while Gladstone is now showing increasing signs of improvement, with some of its suburbs rising.
Regional Queensland markets collectively have improved in the past year or so: in the past six quarterly surveys, the number of locations with growing demand has been 30, 36, 40, 45, 48 and 45. The number of growth markets had decreased sharply in the late 2017 survey but showed steady improvement in 2018 and this has continued into 2019. 
The other key feature is the number of Regional Queensland markets with price growth. Hotspotting analysed price movements in 293 markets and found 179 (61%) have median prices higher than a year ago. Of the 179 growth markets, 77 have recorded median price growth of 5% or more, while another 102 markets have increased by less than 5%.
Of the higher growth markets, 21 have increased by more than 10%, headed by the Central Queensland mining-related centre of Emerald (up 27%). But the No.1 centre for house price growth is the Sunshine Coast: 10 of the 21 locations up by 10%-plus are Sunshine Coast suburbs, led by Eumundi (28%), Sunshine Beach (15%), Twin Waters (15%) and Wurtulla (15%).
Apartment markets overall are doing particularly well in Regional Queensland. Two-thirds of unit markets have median prices higher than a year ago, headed by Airlie Beach (up 31%), East Toowoomba (36%), Broadbeach Waters (25%) and Coolangatta (20%). The Sunshine Coast is prominent here as well – headed by the iconic Noosa market which is up 24%, while Noosaville has risen 15%. In the southern part of the Sunshine Coast, Golden Beach and Warana are both up 15%.
Our analysis of sales activity confirms the status of the Sunshine Coast: 10 suburbs have rising buyer demand, while another 13 have consistent sales activity.
Cairns (pictured top) has six growth suburbs and plenty of steady performers, while Mackay has five growth markets and the Fraser Coast four. Rockhampton has emerged for the first time in several years, with five of its suburbs notable for their rising buyer activity – including Norman Gardens, Berserker and Yeppoon.
There’s further evidence of revival in Gladstone, which we first noted in the two previous (Summer 2019 and Autumn 2019) quarterly surveys. But the situation remains patchy: our ranking of Gladstone suburbs include four rising, three plateau, one consistency, two decline and three danger.
We’ve been watching the Toowoomba market for growth signs, because this is one of Australia’s largest inland regional cities and it has been a growth market in the past. The early signs of uplift are now emerging, with Newtown lifting quarterly sales from 67-82-82-91-95 over the past year or so, and Centenary Heights showing 40-40-42-52-55.
Townsville has suffered setbacks from the February floods but nevertheless has growth markets and will be boosted when work starts on significant infrastructure projects.
As we reported in previous editions, the post-Games boost predicted by some has not eventuated on the Gold Coast. This market was strong from 2015 to 2017 because of the pre-Commonwealth Games construction boom. 
Since then the growth has subsided and there are now 40 suburbs classified as either plateau or consistency markets – and eight decline markets. 
The price outcomes are also mixed for the Gold Coast: 51 markets have median prices higher than a year ago, but there are 31 with prices lower than last year.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Regional Queensland now a national property market leader: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER 
Brisbane is doing what it’s done for the past five years. It’s performing solidly, with most markets recording price rises in the past year, but it’s not a compelling growth market. As I commented recently: “Brisbane is like a car where the engine is revving but it can’t move forward because the handbrake is on.”
Hotspotting’s Winter survey of sales activity shows a reduction in the number of growth markets, measured by patterns in dwelling sales quarter-by-quarter. Prior to this, Brisbane had recorded a rising trend for three consecutive surveys. But now the engine has stalled.
Brisbane continues to perform quite well on price growth, with 66% of suburbs delivering annual growth in their median house prices, which means 135 suburbs with median house prices higher than a year ago. The figures for apartment markets, however, are much less positive, which reflects unit over-supply in recent years.
The number of suburbs with growing demand had risen from 19 to 29 to 33 to 44 in our previous surveys, but the number of growth markets has dropped to 24 in our Winter survey. In the early part of 2019, Brisbane has been impacted by some of the national factors, such as tighter credit and uncertainty prior to the 18 May election. 
We expect some revival in the second half of 2019, helped by the series of fortunate events since 18 May, including cuts to taxes and interest rates, plus the prospect of improved infrastructure spending by the Queensland Government. In the meantime, Brisbane continues to be steady but unexciting.
Some sub-markets are doing better than others. The clear market leader is the Brisbane-north precinct, which comprises the northern suburbs of the Brisbane City Council area – essentially this is Brisbane’s middle market on the northside. Brisbane-north has 10 suburbs with growth momentum (almost half of the growth markets in the Brisbane metro area), including solid middle market areas like Alderley, Everton Park, Kedron, McDowall, Sandgate, Stafford and Wavell Heights.
Quarterly sales in Alderley have been 28, 37, 48, 50 and 52 – and its median prices have risen 6% for houses ($860,000) and 15% for apartments ($425,000) in the past 12 months. Sandgate has had a 15% rise in its median house price ($750,000).
Before the Winter 2019 survey, the Moreton Bay Region in the far north had been the No.1 market in Greater Brisbane for some time. It had lifted the number of growth suburbs from 7 to 10 to 12 in the previous three surveys. But now the Moreton Bay LGA has faded – it now has only five growth suburbs, with 33 suburbs which are either plateau or consistency markets. The remaining suburbs with growth momentum are Everton Hills, Ferny Hills, Kippa-Ring, Murrumba Downs and Warner.
I expect revival in this market, or sections of it, later in the year, helped by infrastructure like the new university campus in the Petrie area.
A number of Moreton Bay suburbs recorded good price growth in the past 12 months, including Bellara (up 11%), Bray Park (6%), Cashmere (10%), Joyner (9%), Sandstone Point (11%), Caboolture (6%), Upper Caboolture (6%), Scarborough (8%), Strathpine (11%), Woody Point (9%), Burpengary East (11%) and Murrumba Downs (8%). 
This reflects a well-established pattern in real estate that prices often remain strong for some time after sales activity has faded.
Elsewhere across the Brisbane metro area, the most notable markets are those marked by consistency and solidity (like Ipswich City and the Brisbane-south precinct) and those where the trends are more negative (like the Brisbane-inner precinct and Logan City).
The number of danger markets in Brisbane is gradually reducing – the seven that remain are primarily inner-city suburbs impacted by the apartment oversupply, which is gradually being absorbed. A couple of inner-city markets, notably Kangaroo Point and Milton, have lost their danger ranking in this survey as the data gradually improves.
But the highly-regarded western suburb of Fig Tree Pocket has been classified as a danger market, because sales activity have declined significantly, the median house price has dropped 25% to $890,000 and vacancies in this postcode are 4.5%.
The price data for the Greater Brisbane Area is noteworthy, because it shows that the generalised figures published in mainstream media are highly misleading. The latest figures from sources like SQM Research, Domain and CoreLogic have Brisbane houses showing little or no growth in the past year, but our suburb-by-suburb analysis shows there are many outperformers.
Hotspotting analysed 287 suburban markets – 205 house markets and 82 unit markets - looking at the latest figures showing annual growth rates. The results for houses are a lot more positive than those for units.
Of the suburb house markets, 135 (66%) have median house prices higher than a year ago, including 44 where medians have grown more than 5% - headed by West End (up 16%), Windaroo (16%), Sandgate (15%), Hemmant (23%) and East Ipswich (19%). 
A total of 70 suburbs (34%) have median house prices down in annual terms, but most are down by less than 5%. Only 12 suburbs have recorded median house price decline above 5%.
The apartment market shows a different pattern, impacted by several years of over-supply which drove up vacancy rates, especially in the inner-city areas. Of the suburbs with unit markets, 38% have higher medians than year ago and 62% have recorded decline in their median prices.
It’s notable than 26 or the 38 Brisbane markets where median prices have dropped more than 5% are apartment markets. The median apartment price for inner-city Bowen Hills is down 19%.
Overall, Brisbane is solid market – or a series of mostly solid markets – awaiting a catalyst. It’s likely to get at least part of the boost it needs from recent national factors, including the election result, the APRA easing, the reductions to interest rates and the tax cuts.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
 
 
 
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