Brisbane-based developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/azure">Azure</a> is has been greenlit for its $115 million residential project within the Gold Coast Health and Knowledge Precinct in Southport

Following the acquisition of the site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/1-clarke-street-southport-qld-4215">1 Clarke Street</a> in October 2025 with development application Lodgement in January 2026, Azure has been granted approval for the 114 terraces which will form the final stage of the wider Lumina development.

“It’s a fantastic milestone for us to receive the green light on our second Gold Coast project,” said Trent Keirnan, Founder of Azure.

“The Gold Coast continues to evolve, with demand for considered, high-quality residences at an all-time high. This project has been thoughtfully shaped to respond to that demand.

“We’ve worked closely with Economic Development Queensland to bring this project forward, and the collaboration has been both proactive and highly considered. Their shared commitment to quality housing outcomes has enabled a streamlined approvals process and a strong result for the precinct.”&nbsp;

Appealing to a wide demographic, the project will deliver a range of two- and three-storey designs comprising a collection of three-bedroom terrace homes as well as one- and two-bedroom apartment-style residences. The designs by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a>&nbsp;focus on&nbsp;“urban coastalism”.

Residents will have access to an array of lifestyle amenities, including a resort-style pool with multiple lounging zones and landscaped gardens.

The residential offering will support the thriving Health and Knowledge Precinct, which includes Griffith University, Gold Coast University Hospital, Gold Coast Private Hospital and the new RDX Lumina and Proxima Towers, which are home to a range of health, education and research tenancies, including a 200-place childcare centre.

Azure aims for an off-market release for the project in the third quarter of this year, at the same time as construction is anticipated to start.

Joel Robinson

Azure approved for new townhouse development in Southport

Fortis has secured approval for a 57-room hotel at Richmond Square, marking another milestone in the delivery of the $330 million mixed-use precinct in Melbourne's inner east.

The hotel will occupy Levels 1 and 2 of Carmine House and forms part of Fortis' vision for Richmond Square, a precinct that will bring together apartments, hospitality, wellness and lifestyle offerings between Richmond and Cremorne.

Once complete, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/richmond-square-1-wiltshire-street-richmond-vic-3121">Richmond Square</a> will comprise 107 residences across Wiltshire House and Carmine House, alongside the hotel, hospitality venues, wellness facilities and a range of services aimed at both residents and visitors.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=13181 project_image_fid=348529]

The approval adds another layer to what Fortis is creating at Richmond Square, as developers increasingly look beyond standalone apartment buildings and towards mixed-use precincts that provide amenity and activation beyond the front door.

Jordan Winada, Head of Acquisitions (Commercial) Victoria at Fortis, said the approval was an important step in delivering the broader vision for the project.

"Richmond Square has always been about creating a destination rather than simply delivering residential apartments," Winada said.

"As buyer expectations continue to evolve, we're seeing increasing demand for developments that offer convenience, connection and access to high-quality experiences and amenity as part of everyday life.

"The hotel approval allows us to further realise that vision and create a precinct where residential living is complemented by hospitality, services and amenity in a way that is rarely seen in Melbourne's CBD and city fringe."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=13181 project_image_fid=348530]

The hotel will also support a range of optional services for residents of Carmine House, including housekeeping and linen refresh programs, laundry and dry-cleaning services, in-residence food and beverage delivery, grocery and pantry stocking services, and concierge assistance.

The approval comes as owner-occupiers continue to dominate Australia's new apartment market, with buyers increasingly seeking developments that offer convenience, flexibility and lifestyle amenity alongside their homes.

Winada said buyers are now placing greater emphasis on the broader precinct and surrounding amenity when making purchasing decisions.

"Residential amenity is no longer limited to what sits within an apartment building. Buyers are increasingly assessing the broader lifestyle ecosystem surrounding their home and the ways in which a precinct can support their day-to-day needs.

"Richmond Square has been designed to provide that experience through a carefully curated mix of residential, hospitality and lifestyle offerings that work together to create a more connected way of living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=13181 project_image_fid=348534]

The hotel is expected to open in early 2027, with the operator to be announced later this year.

Further hospitality, retail and lifestyle tenants are also expected to be revealed in the coming months as Fortis continues to shape the offering at Richmond Square.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=13181]

Fortis approved for hotel component of Richmond Square precinct

Having successfully expanded into a new region with its Caloundra apartment development, Sunset by Dusk Group, growing South East Queensland developer Dusk Group is again venturing into new territory.

The developer has lodged plans for a 70-apartment project in the Moreton Bay region, to be known as <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/sunrise-on-sutton-25-sutton-street-redcliffe-qld-4020">Sunrise on Sutton</a>, named after its prime Sutton Street location, just one street back from Suttons Beach.

<img alt="Sutton" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="88a9f9ee-6ace-47f5-a0c6-8fb134b27e98" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-15%20at%209.20.42%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=iMXmJ7_BNZAmCt.jjupMSLdV_Qa9zJAK" />

Dusk Group Directors Huw Feeney and Anthony Short seized the opportunity to acquire the near-1,800 sqm amalgamated corner site at Sutton and Ella Streets for their first project in the area.

They have again enlisted MAS Architecture Studio, the architects behind Sunset by Dusk, to design the new eight-storey development.

The building will comprise a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments and has been designed to maximise views towards Suttons Beach, Margate Beach and Moreton Bay.

Pending approvals, the project could launch before the end of the year.

<img alt="Dusk" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="90c0c26c-096c-4ceb-8c58-f8303aea542f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-15%20at%209.20.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=nw8bqQtpOrf5nA95tuYhtqdB59YUzmO0" />

The development will provide 111 car parking spaces and 40 bicycle spaces.

Positioned within walking distance of Suttons Beach, Bluewater Square, Redcliffe Hospital and the Redcliffe Paceway, the development will sit within one of the peninsula's increasingly urbanised coastal pockets.

Redcliffe's new apartment market remains exceptionally tight, with Gardner Vaughan Group's One Redcliffe currently the only new apartment development actively being marketed in the beachside suburb.

It's another beach-focused development for Dusk Group, who has seen considerable success at its Caloundra apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/sunset-by-dusk-group-caloundra-5-7-bombala-terrace-caloundra-qld-4551">Sunset by Dusk Group</a>.

Over 80 per cent of the 36 apartments have sold ahead of its early 2027 completion.

&nbsp;

First look: Dusk Group targets Suttons Beach precinct with 70-apartment Redcliffe proposal

Leading Brisbane developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/consolidated-properties">Consolidated Properties Group (CPG)</a> has completed and settled $450 million worth of apartments at Monarch Residences in Toowong, marking one of Brisbane’s most significant and prestigious riverfront residential completions in recent years.

The final apartment at Monarch sold at auction on the 30th May for $4.1m.&nbsp;

The milestone has been marked at a ribbon-cutting ceremony at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/monarch-residences-toowong-600-coronation-drive-toowong-qld-4066">Monarch Residences</a>, with Cr Penny Wolff highlighting the importance of completing major residential projects to boost the city’s much-needed housing supply.

The 224 apartments, delivered across two 15-level towers, are now officially in the hands of owners, including Brisbane downsizers, families and professionals who have traded traditional houses for apartment living. The completion underscores sustained demand for absolute riverfront living in Brisbane’s inner west.

<img alt="$450M Monarch Residences sells out as Brisbane riverfront demand surges" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="56ae05e9-092f-41f0-98a1-a10984fdd171" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ROBNN_MONARCHLAUNCHEVENT-131.jpg?VersionId=p76J6weGZqseNrE6aOAjmAHUah.y65Gd" />

Monarch Residences was planned and delivered over four years on a 1.2-hectare parcel with more than 130 metres of direct frontage to the Brisbane River, occupying one of the last remaining true riverfront sites of its scale and orientation within close proximity to the CBD. The site has been transformed from an underutilised, derelict block of land, into a thriving residential precinct with Middenbury House at its centre.&nbsp;

Consolidated Properties Group CEO and Chairman Don O’Rorke says the project’s completion represents the culmination of years of careful planning, design collaboration, market conviction and outstanding team delivery.

“We announced Monarch Residences in late 2021 and it’s been one of the most strongly received residential projects in our 45-year history,” Mr O’Rorke said.

"We are incredibly grateful to the outstanding team who helped bring Monarch Residences to life. A special thank you to Hutchinson Builders and their hardworking labour force for delivering a development of exceptional quality that our residents will be proud to call home for many years to come.

“Brisbane City Council and Titles Queensland also played a huge role in getting residents into their homes early through the pilot programs they ran to speed up the approval processes. They understand the challenges of the housing industry and are doing something about it.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113455 project_image_fid=211466]

Consolidated Properties Group Head of Residential, James MacGinley said Monarch Residences showed what could be achieved when private industry and government worked together to deliver new housing for Brisbane.

“Monarch Residences has delivered more than 200 new apartments in Brisbane’s inner-west at a time when additional housing supply is critically important,” MacGinley said.

“It’s fantastic to see residents now moving into this landmark riverfront development, which reflects the strength of collaboration between Council and the project team throughout delivery.

“All government agencies played a significant hand in achieving a fast-tracked outcome for Monarch Residences with Brisbane City Council, Urban Utilities, Energex and Titles Queensland assisted to remove hurdles to achieve settlements.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113455 project_image_fid=302326]

With Monarch Residences now complete, CPG has launched River Living, a bespoke on-site property management service designed to enhance the resident experience. The service will support all future CPG residential projects, including the recently announced <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gloriette-30-bedivere-street-yeerongpilly-qld-4105">Gloriette</a> in Yeerongpilly and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a> in Newstead.

The completion also marks the opening of a prized leasing opportunity at the heritage-listed Middenbury House, built in 1865 and which has been carefully restored and integrated into the broader masterplan.&nbsp;

CPG said the adaptive reuse of the landmark riverfront residence presents an opportunity to introduce a complementary boutique tenancy that respects the site’s historic significance while activating the riverfront frontage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113455 project_image_fid=211495]

Colliers Director of Residential Andrew Scriven said the move-in phase highlights continued demand for completed premium riverfront apartments in Brisbane.

“Residents are now experiencing firsthand the scale, craftsmanship and irreplaceable riverfront position that Monarch offers,” Scriven said.

“Opportunities to secure a brand-new, completed residence on Brisbane’s absolute riverfront are exceptionally rare. Combined with the proven track record of Consolidated Properties Group and Hutchinson Builders, combined with a design vision brought to life by some of Australia’s leading architects and designers, Monarch represents a unique opportunity to purchase a home of enduring quality and prestige.”

Monarch Residences was designed in collaboration with Melbourne-based architect Wardle Studio, alongside leading national practice Cottee Parker, with construction delivered by Hutchinson Builders.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113455]

Consolidated Properties Group sells out Monarch Residences as Brisbane riverfront demand surges

An entity directed by HSN's Rafi Assouline and Rebel Property's Allen Linz has filed plans for an impressive new precinct in Woolloomooloo.

The major mixed-use development would transform a prominent William Street site into a new residential village anchored by affordable housing and a large public park.

The proposal, submitted as a State Significant Development Application, covers 164-172 and 174-194 William Street, a 6,398 sqm site between Forbes Street and Dowling Street on the southern edge of Woolloomooloo.

Designed by fjcstudio in collaboration with Bangawarra, Studio Bright and Tribe Studio Architects, the scheme would deliver 227 apartments across four residential buildings ranging in height up to 18 storeys, alongside retail space, public domain improvements and a new publicly accessible park.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0eb59b7c-914a-4a5c-b849-3a56749f5e93" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.18.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=mxM6EEqeoLjrCiTlCzTKTvzpKuh6kSkH" />

It's another design scheme for Rebel, who took <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-rebel-property-group-takes-woolloomooloo-precinct-to-nsw-government">concept plans to the NSW Gov late last year</a>.

The latest plans will be a mix of 167 build-to-sell apartments and 60 affordable apartments, with the affordable housing component representing 15 per cent of the project's gross floor area. The apartment mix includes 12 one-bedroom, 53 two-bedroom, 89 three-bedroom apartments and 13 penthouses, while the affordable housing component would comprise 42 one-bedroom and 18 two-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3b3d4553-8a8c-4af5-aa8c-519ffb1e28c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.12%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=_Yb6ibN7eDnOtQjCNDK2eviORa4qzgv." />

Rebel Property is seeking to take advantage of the NSW Government's infill affordable housing bonus provisions under the Housing SEPP, which provide additional floor space and height in exchange for the delivery of affordable housing for a minimum of 15 years. The planning pathway allows a 30 per cent increase in floor space ratio and building height where 15 per cent of the development is dedicated to affordable housing.

&nbsp;

At the centre of the development is a 1,356 sqm sunlit public park designed to become a new community gathering space at the gateway to Woolloomooloo. The park would be complemented by a network of pedestrian laneways connecting William Street with the surrounding streets, improving permeability through what is currently a largely impermeable block.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="257af931-a393-4007-8c6d-7219796df58d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=KAHy94GrhaReFsWTGDKfy39EDJ8gEEv4" />

The design team says the public domain has been heavily influenced by the site's topography and Aboriginal cultural heritage, drawing on the escarpments, gullies and landscape characteristics that historically defined the area before urbanisation. The landscape design has been developed in partnership with First Nations consultancy Bangawarra.

The project would be delivered across four separate buildings. The William Street East and William Street West buildings, designed by fjcstudio, would contain the majority of the apartments. Melbourne-based Studio Bright has designed the Forbes Street building, while Tribe Studio Architects is responsible for the Dowling Street building.

Rebel had secured approval for the concept plans late last year.

First look: HSN, Rebel, advances Woolloomooloo precinct plans

Robert Simeon

<html><body>
We all love a hilarious headline and this week we were served up a cracker - “Australian house prices fall 1.9% in May”.
What part of this embarrassing statistic is relevant to real estate? For such data to be extrapolated thousands and thousands of suburbs’ data would need to be fed in, all of which means next to nothing given it significantly fails the relevance test. Households are simply concerned with just the one thing, namely the data pertaining to the suburb in which they own property. For those slightly interested, Sydney posted a 1.1% decline which based on approximately 670 suburbs which would then average out at a 0.00164% decline per suburb.
When it comes to house prices what consistently fails to be mentioned is that the suburbs within that crucial 15 kilometre radius of the CBD continue to outperform simply because they are not cursed by diabolical infrastructure inadequacies. With Australia moving closer and closer to a population of 24 million and a resources industry in significant decline, there will be more pressures placed on the major cities as families relocate to gain employment.
It is anyone’s guess how Sydney (which is facing an 8 million population) and Melbourne (9 million) are simply going to cope given Australia’s current population growth rate is 1.8% and growing. The reality of the argument is that there is simply not enough housing to meet the projected demand nor for that matter even a plan projecting how these major cities will cope. Given it is quite obvious now that the residents of Sydney and Melbourne prefer to live as close to their respective cities, than the onus falls majorly on the governments to develop infrastructure that can meet with this demand which just so happens to be growing at the fastest rate ever recorded before.
To get a better perspective one only has to look at this week’s gross domestic product (GDP) which for the March quarter of 2014 grew 1.1% seasonally adjusted, although it would be fair to say that the June GDP figures won’t be anything to write home about. What the GDP figures did reveal is that it does not look good for Western Australia and Queensland given both are fast-tracked into spiral declines with reduced construction and commodity price declines. Historically, what usually happen next are major unemployment headlines as businesses start scaling down operations.
It should be noted that NSW posted a 9.3% increase in private investment for the quarter together with the best home approval figures in over ten years.
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/06/2-06-2014-9-56-48-AM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11333" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/06/2-06-2014-9-56-48-AM.jpg" alt="2-06-2014 9-56-48 AM" width="429" height="420"></a>
The onus is now definitely on the states and territories to start getting their respective infrastructure spends into overdrive, hence the massive asset sales. The only foreseeable problem with these asset sales is what they do when there is nothing left to sell? It’s no secret that no Australian state or territory is basking in a budget surplus, rather all are in significant deficit or on the borderline.
It should not have come as any great surprise that when the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released data this week it revealed that 46.4% of state and local government taxation revenue from the 2012/13 financial year came from property related taxes. The total amount collected, a record, came in at $35.931 billion leaving consumers rightly furious that infrastructure and transport have never been worse.
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/06/2-06-2014-9-59-05-AM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11335" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/06/2-06-2014-9-59-05-AM.jpg" alt="2-06-2014 9-59-05 AM" width="633" height="286"></a>
With strong public debate about the GST being raised it should be noted that when the GST was introduced by the Howard government back in July 2000 – this was done so on the basis that the states and territories would reduce/remove these taxes. It should be noted that council rates did not come under the GST removal mandate.
So the question that keeps popping up is once the assets have been sold (and this is fast approaching) then how are the state and territory governments going to survive given all they can tax is properties and businesses (remember pay roll tax was supposed to go also)? You can’t increase the GST only to see these respective governments run amok again as they can no longer balance the books.
Therefore there is a very sound argument to look at a model in Australia where state and territory governments cease to exist and local councils are merged into super councils. It would certainly be good for employment. Work, maintenance and construction would be consistently rolled out across the nation.
Quite simply, it may never come to fruition even though the USA does not have middle-tier government and it works fine there. It would be fascinating to see what this model would look like and how it could possibly work – which should not be that hard. It would certainly remove the politician pension gravy train which is a total waste of tax payer monies. Many would argue successfully that in itself is enough reason to remove this tier of government once and for all.
</body></html>

robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Onus on governments to build infrastructure for major cities' projected population explosion

<html><body>
Paradigm was the buzz word when Australia was handcuffed to a hung parliament, so to be different let’s take a look at Australia’s property paradigm and what we can expect to be reading about the direction Australian property is headed in coming months.
Many vastly differing opinions are front and centre at the moment, for some strange reason commentaries keep reverting back to Australia’s property boom in 2003/04 – which I am struggling to accept.
In 2003/04 Australia was basking in an unprecedented period of economic growth together with a booming resources sector, which for want of a better expression, this may be better described as the old economy given our resources sector is now in decline.
The latest capex figures were released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) this week which revealed that total capex fell by 4.2% in the March quarter. Most notable was the mining industry which declined by 8.7% in the March quarter with total new capex now 5% lower than this time last year. As Australia moves from mining to non – mining industries the building sector was suggested as the biggest benefactor from mining and also declined by 7.4% in the March quarter. Capex has now fallen by 8.5% over the last two quarters – which puts the Australian capex on par with the largest six month decline since the recession back in 1993.
There are many questions that today remain unanswered given there is growing opinions that Australia’s long-term planning may need an immediate visit back to the drawing board as these unknown economic irregularities have Australia steering into unknown waters. Certainly the latest capex figures indicate that our productivity is headed completely in the wrong direction.
With interest I have been closely watching the ANZ – Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence rating which has revealed that confidence is now down 15% since the Abbott government first started spruiking its budget policies. This has brought about a most unusual trifecta given we see confidence, terms of trade and property prices (apparently) in decline. What we are seeing today is a complete opposite to what happened back in 2003/04 although the cash rate back then was approximately double what it is today and from 2003/04 the cash rate steadily increased to 7.25% in 2008 only to be halted by the global financial crisis.
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/05/27-05-2014-12-25-40-PM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8564" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/05/27-05-2014-12-25-40-PM.jpg" alt="27-05-2014 12-25-40 PM" width="595" height="357"></a>
Source: Macro Business
Although what is conflicting is the property dynamic over the same period for residential term loans to households which may very well explain why we are starting to see the early signs of the property markets easing. Although it must be noted that the traditional real estate markets have only recorded modest capital growth when compared to the outer Sydney areas that have posted unprecedented capital growth.
It is anyone’s guess when the RBA will start increasing the cash rate again although most agree that they will remain where they are for some considerable time to come.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8565" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/05/27-05-2014-1-10-16-PM.jpg" alt="27-05-2014 1-10-16 PM" width="696" height="347">
 
Source: Digital Finance Analytics
With interest this week I read Ian Macfarlane on central bank policies, inflation and China on <a href="https://cuffelinks.com.au/ian-macfarlane-central-bank-policies-inflation-china/" target="_blank" title="Cuffelinks">Cuffelinks</a>. What I find most interesting about China is that aside from them being a number one client for buying our iron ore, which is now in decline, they are fast becoming the number one foreign purchaser of our real estate.
What that in itself may suggest that given their insatiable interest in Australian real estate prices will flat line for some considerable time to come as they are definitely a noteworthy driver of real estate today – this reinforces the mislead perceptions/predictions that real estate values will fall.
The biggest question marks over Australian real estate are quite simple and twofold – what will happen to the markets when the cash rate goes back to some form of normality say at 7.50% which represents a 200% increase? Lastly, they keep mentioning negative gearing and given the Australian government’s debt position there will come a time when this great tax deduction is re-examined.
Although maybe we are looking at the wrong paradigm given nobody can explain why the ASX surged to a six year high this week?
Obviously I must have missed something?
</body></html>

Australia's contentious property paradigm: What we can expect to hear about in the future

<html><body>
I was asked this week if I could remember the last time we saw such a hostile response to a federal budget. I responded ‘no’ – as it would have been well before we had access to the internet.
When the world moved into the online space, the internet always appeared with a capital I, which has been replaced with a lower case 'i'. So what happened to the capital “I” one might ask? Well the “I” became you – the consumer, where through this very process (for better or worse) this online revolution has changed how we do business in the modern age.
When one looks at the problems facing the budget, it’s quite clear that Australia has a massive productivity problem. Wages have flat lined which has seen living standards rise just 2.6% over the last five years. The modern day terminology is “on hold”, which is exactly what the Reserve Bank of Australia is doing with the cash rate given our labour market is, best case scenario, neutral and employment growth won’t exceed population growth.
When you’re paying (an estimated) $1 billion just in interest each month, it’s time for any responsible government to say ‘enough is enough’. Just like our neighbours across the ditch did in recent years when they too had to re-calibrate their economy and today, are predicting a $370.5 million surplus with 4% growth.
Unfortunately in Australia’s modern day political arena, there is no room for compromise given the central influence is to play populist politics, not policy. We see differing opinions on how Australia will create a sustainable budget that successfully negotiates a path into the future. If Australia was to continue on the current path without significant change, the present budget would be seen as a soft – touch.
<img src="/images/2014/05/27/simeon%20may%2027%20one.png" alt="">
Source: <a href="https://www.treasury.gov.au/PublicationsAndMedia/Speeches/2014/Fiscal_sustainability" target="_blank">Department of the Treasury</a>
For arguments sake, this is the <a href="https://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/5/22/politics/budget-graph-brought-stunned-silence-coalition" target="_blank" title="budget graph that brought a ‘stunned silence’ to the Coalition">budget graph that brought a ‘stunned silence’ to the Coalition</a> where Secretary of Treasury described it as “the most alarming single piece of information” he had seen about Australia’s future economic prospects, adding that it created a “stunned silence” when he presented it to both the state treasurers and cabinet. Again the significant point to be drawn from this graph is that with our declining terms of trade and an ageing population, our productivity needs a complete ‘about–turn’.
I wouldn’t hold your breath on that because, when one looks at <a href="https://www.ami.org.au/imis15/News_2013_May/Default/Australia_s_Top_100_Brands_2013__/News_2013_May/Australias_Top_100_Brands_2013.aspx?hkey=7621e19d-3bb4-4c3a-b08c-af2b0a18073d" target="_blank" title="Australia’s Top 20 Brands">Australia’s top 20 brands</a> not one is directly involved in technology. On the other hand when one looks at <a href="https://www.brandz100.com/site/reports/global/2014/report/download-report.pdf" target="_blank" title="2014 BrandZ Top 100">2014 BrandZ Top 100 </a>(this is a PDF file so takes a little while to download but well worth the read) we get a pretty good idea of how bad we are performing on a global stage.
Following three years at the top, Google has bumped Apple from the number one position when, in 2014, Google’s brand shot up 40% in a year to US$158.84 billion (A$171.86 billion). All up The BrandZ Top 100 Most Valuable Global Brands 2014 added $310 billion to reach $2.9 trillion in brand value. Prior to the BrandZ Global 2014 results, the Top 100 had increased an average of about 6%, $125 billion annually, since the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. This year, led by apparel, with a 29% overall increase, all categories rose in brand value. And 10 of 14 categories experienced double-digit growth, indicating that brands across the economy have moved beyond recovery into a period of new growth. In the meantime, Australia sits in a mental void trying to work out what to do following the mining downturn.
<blockquote>
The rise of China as a superpower could see it control as much as half the world’s financial assets by 2030.
</blockquote>
For those who recently raised concerns about China’s attraction to Australian property, Secretary of Treasury, Martin Parkinson, told a forum this week in Hong Kong that China’s foreign exchange reserves now approach $4 trillion. Today, China now accounts for around 11% of both world trade and global GDP but only accounts for 3% of gross holdings of overseas assets and liabilities. He went on to say that this figure, which includes foreign exchange reserves, could triple to $16 trillion. The rise of China as a superpower could see it control as much as half the world’s financial assets by 2030.
Puts the Australian budget into a different perspective, especially when you read how China is preparing for its ageing population – <a href="https://www.economist.com/news/china/21600160-pensions-crisis-looms-china-looks-raising-retirement-age-paying-grey" target="_blank" title="Paying for the grey.">paying for the grey.</a> Although Australia is a long way off telling families they have a limit of just one child.
For the second time in 2014 Mosman houses for sale managed to stay above the 100 mark which either tells us more people are selling or houses are not selling as fast. It will be interesting to see in coming weeks, what the correct reason is, although we should note that clearance rates have dropped significantly. Sceptics no doubt, will attribute that to the federal budget!
</body></html>

Australia has one almighty brand problem

<html><body>
The first Coalition budget was always to going to be a fiasco – should the Coalition significantly reduce the budget deficit this would put the ALP in the untenable position of being seen as incapable of managing the nation’s finances given their past track record.
So when it goes to the Senate it will be rejected given the Coalition simply don’t have the numbers to get it through. In the meantime let’s have a look at what I perceive as a major housing affordability issue – actually it’s horrendous.
In a nutshell, the budget forecasts economic growth to be 2.5% in 2014-15 and moving to 3.5% in 2017-18. Unemployment to sit at 6.25% in 2014-15 then falling to 5.75% in 2017-18 and inflation sitting around 2.25% in 2014-15 rising to 2.5% in 2017-18. The big mover is debt which will reduce from $667 billion to $389 billion over the next 10 years.
All very good, but what are the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cash rate projections as this is the sleeping elephant in the china shop.
Cue the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) who released this week what many are saying is the real debt crisis in Australia and we should be very afraid about these statistics. Australian household debt at the end of 2013 came in at approximately $1.84 trillion which then calculates out at approximately 180% of disposable household income. Little wonder we are now starting to see household debt slowing – this should come as a major concern. Government debt is currently sitting at around 30% of GDP – Australian household debt today is sitting at around 120% of GDP.
Household debt is today at the highest level for 25 years and when you deduct 25 from 2014 you come up with 1989. Whilst the vast majority may not remember what happened in 1989, I clearly do as I <a href="/expert-insights/why-property-bubbles-are-like-the-loch-ness-monster">recently wrote about it</a>.
Now to put these statistics into greater context it needs to be remembered that back in 1989 the cash rate was sitting between 17.5% and 19% as against 2.5% today. The cash rate is crucial to the Australian housing industry given once the RBA starts to raise it there will be collateral damage along the way as “some” households will not be able to meet their repayments given our high cost of living. The areas that have been over heated in recent times are a natural example where previously they witnessed dramatic property value corrections.
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/05/14-05-2014-10-15-49-AM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8543" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/05/14-05-2014-10-15-49-AM.jpg" alt="14-05-2014 10-15-49 AM" width="614" height="401"></a>
Source: Digital Finance Analytics
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/05/14-05-2014-10-18-14-AM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8544" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/05/14-05-2014-10-18-14-AM.jpg" alt="14-05-2014 10-18-14 AM" width="689" height="387"></a>
Source: Digital Finance Analytics
So the ABS has released in its March 2014 data that Australia’s total housing stock is estimated currently at $5.1 trillion which equated to a rise of $105,348.0 million over that quarter – with the total number of residences calculated at 9.33 million.
The June housing numbers will make for compelling viewing given so many Australians see their homes as an appreciating ATM that can easily be borrowed against – which is fine so long as homes are in capital appreciation mode. In recent times we have seen areas posting annual capital appreciation of around 30% plus which signals dangerous debt loading.
<blockquote>
Until household debt starts showing signs of improvement the RBA could well be forced to lower the cash rate further to say 2.00%.
</blockquote>
Historically what we see next is the banks tightening their loan ratios which many would agree is long overdue given their recent ‘lend at all costs’ mandate to increase their respective market shares. We would all remember that as we entered the global financial crisis the first thing expected of the government is to guarantee bank deposits – to stop a run on the banks.
What is assured is that until household debt starts showing signs of improvement the RBA could well be forced to lower the cash rate further to say 2.00%.
When one takes a moment to seriously consider the economic ramifications we are presently observing in the housing industry, it makes a mockery of all the political bickering of what is currently being argued in Canberra.
</body></html>

Household debt is the sleeping elephant in the china shop

<html><body>
Well it’s that time of the year when Australian taxpayers prepare themselves to get their annual slap across the face with a couple of moist lettuce leaves.
Yes – the 2014/15 federal budget is now less than one day away and just like the budgets before this one the warnings, threats and pugnacious leaks usually amount to next to nothing. The reason why? Politicians have an addiction to being re-elected which is contingent on strong polling performances despite our economy growing slightly below trend.
Historically real estate has been a minor player come budget time with the government of the day preferring to address the industry from more of a macro positioning given that is by far an easier option when compared to a micro-economic analysis. For all intents and purposes if the real estate/housing demographic were that essential, then it would be fair to say there would actually be a designated Housing Minister which is not the case with the Abbott led government.
Although it should be noted that <a href="/expert-insights/finance/governments-take-out-a-lot-more-through-property-tax-than-is-given-back">governments take out a lot more through property tax than is given back </a>– real estate is a cash cow of choice for all three levels of government – including through stamp duty, land tax, capital gains tax, rates and infrastructure charges. It would be reasonable to suggest that one of the compelling reasons as to why the GST has been left out until the next election is because the state governments reneged on their 2000 tax obligations when the GST was introduced. If and when the GST is discussed the states and territories will have to make some significant tax adjustments given the decision will be made by referendum.
Negative gearing will escape greater scrutiny in this year’s budget despite the government having to fund $5 billion each year and growing tax concessions.
Given the ongoing debates attributed to housing affordability it will only be a matter of time before we see a tapering in the annual tax concessions which would also lend significant weight to investors contemplating a move away from traditional bricks and mortar – any such decision would be staggered over a 15 to 20 year period.
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/05/8-05-2014-1-19-04-PM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8531" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/05/8-05-2014-1-19-04-PM.jpg" alt="8-05-2014 1-19-04 PM" width="646" height="395"></a>
Source: OECD
 
As with every budget the Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) had their say into negative gearing and pointed out that Australian Taxation Office (ATO) data shows fewer than 80% of total individual taxpayers that are claiming a tax deduction from property earn less than $80,000 per annum.
The OECD eloquently summed up Australia’s economic position this week when it released their economic outlook for May:
“Output is projected to increase by 2 ½% in 2014 and by nearly 3% in 2015, with a general pick – up in demand offsetting declining investment in the resources sector.
"Some economic slack will remain and the unemployment rate will not begin to edge down until the second half of 2015. As a result there will be little inflation pressure, although rapid growth in house prices and mortgage lending requires continued attention.
"Given near – term uncertainties in the re – balancing of the economy away from investment in the natural resources sector, heavy front loading of fiscal consolidation should be avoided.
"Against the backdrop of the projected recovery, monetary stimulus should start to be withdrawn in the first half of 2015.”
It will be fascinating to see how much of this the federal government adopts with next week’s budget.
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/05/26-04-2014-10-07-22-AM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8533" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/05/26-04-2014-10-07-22-AM.jpg" alt="26-04-2014 10-07-22 AM" width="660" height="364"></a>
Source: Australian Property Monitors
With regard to the OECD’s concerns regarding house prices and mortgage lending it should be noted that the house prices showing the greatest gains are in the lower price ranges and not the top-end markets.
From the above graph I would suggest that the vast majority of Sydney suburbs would be showing their yearly price increases of between 5.00 and 10.00% – which is not a concern. We will only see property stress once the RBA starts moving up the cash rate.
</body></html>

Budget week is all about huff and puff

<html><body>
The practice by unethical real estate agents to – ‘quote them low and watch it go’ could very well finally be a thing of the past – well in Queensland anyway (for starters). Governments from all political persuasions have struggled for decades to establish a best practice platform for the real estate industry.
Queensland is close to implementing the new legislation although they are struggling at the last hurdles given they are seeking that agents are not permitted to provide any price guides. The reforms have now been altered to permit agents providing a price guide on the internet.
This just keeps getting dumber and dumber given this whole process could be fixed so easily – all that’s required is for the vendors to publish their reserve price to all parties making inquiries. The prospective purchasers then make up their own minds as to what they believe the property is worth based on the published reserve price – a clean and transparent selling process.
I have always argued (successfully) that the difference between a good real estate agent and an average one is about 10% of the sale price. The difference by not quoting the agents price guide is that this figure is generally skewed to the attraction price as against the selling price which is exactly what should be the case in this day and age.
If a buyer wants to pursue a property at the vendor’s reserve price then all well and good. If on the other hand they construe that the expectations are too high then let the property run a reverse course – which is interesting as this then goes back to the respective agent’s negotiating skills. I’m not exactly sure what parts of this the agents don’t get as reserve price quoting will reward the agents with superior negotiating skills – which is exactly what vendors should be looking for.
There is a great role for public auctions in the real estate industry, just the system requires critiquing because rogue agents will always struggle with the truth. Watch this debate get very heated in coming weeks and months although rest assured there will be major changes across the board to the Australian property auction system.
Another fascinating week that had the “experts” (whatever they are) calling the end of the biggest Sydney property boom in a decade – what a load of rubbish!
To add some weight to these idiotic statements there are approximately 637 (and growing) suburbs that make-up Sydney. Yet in typical lackadaisical reporting fashion we read “dwelling values across Australia’s capital cities have recorded declines” – so they take the weighted averages over 637 suburbs in the case of Sydney to get an accurate positioning? Anyone applying this methodology is simply delusional as this in no way accurately defines real estate market trends – until such time as it is suburb by suburb this collective data is as useful as an ashtray on a motor bike.
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/05/30-04-2014-1-59-49-PM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8520" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/05/30-04-2014-1-59-49-PM.jpg" alt="30-04-2014 1-59-49 PM" width="647" height="342"></a>
Source: Digital Finance Analytics
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/05/30-04-2014-1-58-58-PM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8521" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/05/30-04-2014-1-58-58-PM.jpg" alt="30-04-2014 1-58-58 PM" width="664" height="361"></a>
Source: Digital Finance Analytics
The latest monthly banking statistics from APRA identify consistent lending to the end of March 2014. In February owner-occupied and investment loans were $1.231 billion and in March they came in at $1.236 billion. The ‘Big Four’ increased their market share from 84.3% to 84.4% which will have many suggesting that should there be a correction they will be in all sorts of bother.
What I would like to see is a graph showing where their respective loans were as we should remember during the global financial crisis (GFC) Mosman was tipped as having the highest delinquency rate in Australia where it was later proved it had the lowest.
As they say, be careful about calling yourself an expert. An ex is a has–been and a spurt is a drip under pressure. For some, it’s human nature to predict/promote themselves as some type of modern day Nostradamus who quite remarkably possess this innate ability to read the future.
Recently we read that in America, Dr Marc Faber is predicting that this year we will witness a 1987-type stock market crash although this time it will be much more severe. For those who have no idea what exactly happened here it is <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2007/200713/200713pap.pdf" target="_blank" title="Black Monday – 1987.">Black Monday – 1987.</a>
Given what transpired recently in the GFC, I would think that the vast majority are erring on the side of caution – which history has conclusively shown to be the smartest path.
</body></html>

Is the public auction system going – going – gone?

<html><body>
So what do property bubbles and the Loch Ness Monster have in common you might ask?
Just like Nessie they are rarely sighted (if at all), and even then they are just suggested as possibly looking like one. In Australia we have had just the occasional sighting which generally fails the credibility test when the facts are more closely examined.
The truth is that very few people in Australia have actually ever seen a property bubble given most can’t even define what exactly one is or does. I was sitting down this week with my business colleague Steve Patrick and had a deep debate about what actually a property bubble is? Given that we have both been selling real estate for around 30 years we are more than qualified to offer an explanation.
Have we seen one? Yes – in 1988 and nothing since then has come even close to resembling that property colossus and there is a very strong possibility we may never see one again in Australia. Collectively, it is our opinion that a property bubble is where property prices double over a two-year period. What makes 1988 all the more confronting is that the official cash rate back then was at the all-time high of 17.5%.
We also need to bear in mind that there were a number of events that led to this historic event.
Back on October 19, 1987 stock markets around the world crashed. It started in Hong Kong and spread west to Europe, decimating the United States where the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 508 points to 1738.74 which was (22.61%). This was later to be known worldwide as Black Monday. Most noticeable was the movement of monies directly into the real estate markets – this was to become the greatest financial disaster Australia had ever experienced given I would argue these combined losses were far greater than those suffered during the global financial crisis (GFC).
For this to happen it is most clear that property prices back then were significantly undervalued (which they aren’t today). In those days everything in Sydney went to public auction and for weeks and months at mid-week auction days it was common to see as many as 250 to 300 properties auctioned on the one day. Yes – they would start at 10am and the hammer was still dropping at 10pm that night. Forget Super Saturday’s that’s about 3,000 auctions each week in Sydney alone and this went on for months.
As it turned out, 1988 was also Australia’s bicentenary which marked 200 years since the arrival of the first fleet of British convict ships at Sydney in 1788. Back then the only bubbles we encountered were those of champagne bottles popping as the nation celebrated – any excuse for a party.
Like most big parties they are usually followed by that traditional hangover, which was in Australia’s case the “recession we had to have”. The major change was the ownership on the certificate of title changing to banks becoming the new owners. Property prices then fell by approximately 30 to 50% depending on the price demographic.
It is interesting to note that over the GFC the largest property losses were at or about the 30% level, although it should also be noted that property prices had been on a steady incline as against a boom that was experienced in the late – 1980s.
Yes we had experienced mini-booms (better known as high transaction levels) in 2000, 2004 and 2007 although nothing compared to what we saw in 1988. So one can’t blame those commentators who believe they have seen a property boom simply because they were not born or can’t remember the mammoth boom of the late 1980’s.
Given where we are today and what we now know, there is a very strong possibility we may never again see a property boom to equal that of the late 1980s as today we don’t see or construe property values as being undervalued.
So for all those who are claiming we are entering a property bubble there are others who believe that there is a much stronger chance of sighting the Loch Ness monster.
</body></html>

Why property bubbles are like the Loch Ness monster

<html><body>
The longest standing prerequisite for being a politician in Australia is to turn a question into a rhetorical question – cue Sydney’s political self-preservation argument for a second airport.
This particular debate goes way back to the 1970s where nearly five decades after the initial announcement reality has now come to the fore. The only reason for this five decade delay was the concern of politicians losing office should they back such a controversial recommendation.
The Sydney to Melbourne route in 2011 was declared as the fifth busiest in the world. Sydney airport is by far the busiest in Australia with approximately 36 million passenger movements and 320,000 aircraft movements annually. By 2035, projections have passenger movements at 80 million and aircraft movements at nearly 430,000.
For too long Sydney has fictitiously survived under the falsehood that everything happens within just a 15 kilometre radius of the Sydney CBD. This myth was exposed further in 2014 when the state government moved that 24 hour a day, seven day a week clearways would come into force. Sydney was suffocating and the only solution was to move west – the embarrassing part of this entire debate is why has it taken so long?
<blockquote>
For too long Sydney has fictitiously survived under the falsehood that everything happens within just a 15 kilometre radius of the Sydney CBD.
</blockquote>
Look no further than the fact that Sydney does not have a plan to cope with the fastest growing population in Australia – which has resulted in residents moving elsewhere for a better lifestyle.
Kudos to Parramatta which has fast-tracked itself as Australia’s boomtown over the next five years with a record $8 billion designated with 33 major projects on the drawing board – when completed this will make it Australia’s fifth biggest CBD. An extra 838,000 square metres of commercial space and more than 3,700 apartments and townhouses have been approved.
This week’s announcement for a second Sydney airport at Badgerys Creek will add the largest construction growth spurt that NSW has ever seen – not surprisingly this will have a flow on effect to north and south coastal areas which will be watching the Sydney expansion with enormous interest – cue Newcastle and Wollongong.
Three graphs that will be of great interest not only to NSW but for every capital city in Australia will be:
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8505" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/04/17-04-2014-11-17-08-AM.jpg" alt="17-04-2014 11-17-08 AM" width="599" height="401">
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8506" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/04/17-04-2014-11-12-09-AM.jpg" alt="17-04-2014 11-12-09 AM" width="518" height="465">
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8507" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/04/17-04-2014-11-15-26-AM.jpg" alt="17-04-2014 11-15-26 AM" width="525" height="453">
NSW has been stymied by a lack of direction which has been highlighted by elected politicians preferring their own vote protection over making crucial decisions that will guarantee growth, jobs and prosperity for NSW. Comparing the Olympic Games in Sydney in 2000 to the second airport announcement is like comparing a skateboard to a train. It is interesting to note that over the last 40 years Melbourne has increased its population by two thirds while Sydney has managed just a little over half.
So what will these announcements do to property prices? Well that’s pretty easy to answer as property prices are determined by supply v demand. For too long properties within a 15 kilometre radius of the Sydney CBD have attracted all the interest – this will now change significantly with the move by businesses in a westerly direction given that is where the workforces are (or will be). <a href="/news">Parramatta</a> and surrounding areas will flourish given that such infrastructure spending is unprecedented in an area outside the Sydney CBD region. Another bonus is that this construction boom will (in time) significantly bring down rents.
Australia is right in the middle of a housing affordability crisis which also has been conveniently ignored by politicians given this too is placed in the too hard basket. So it was interesting to note this week that New Zealand’s Housing Minister (yes, they have one and Australia does not) Nick Smith announced that he set an ambitious target to reduce housing affordability in NZ back to the long-run average of four times. Australia and NZ both share a median market of around 5.5%. Although this grand scheme lacks detail at least it has been tabled which is not the case in Australia given it’s not spoken about, and we don’t even have a designated minister.
Premier Barry O’Farrell fell on his sword last week and there is no denying he had to go. Brace yourself for plenty more revelations from ICAC and the Royal Commission into unions where I predict a record number of by-elections across Australia.
</body></html>

The announcement that finally had Sydney smiling

<html><body>
I, like many property observers, am laughing at those commentators who are speculating that Australian houses could fall by up to 20% – an assumption that I find totally absurd.
It's far easier to question the state of the minds of those making such fanciful attention-seeking ‘listen to me because I’m important’ commentaries. Yes, house prices now equate to 4.3 times annual income and 28 times annual rent – however we are seeing less households selling today, with the mindset moving to long-term holds.
There is little point or relevance for that matter comparing Australian house growth to the other major economies around the world, for the simple reason that Australia has the smallest population – 22.68 million which is then reflective in the number of properties. The smaller the market, the tighter the hold and today there is no better example than Mosman, which has just 4,800 houses approximately.
In 2007 as the global financial crisis (GFC) loomed Mosman was put on notice by many of these so-called experts that prices would be decimated given its high dependence on the banking and financial industries which were spiraling downwards into oblivion. Well as it later showed Mosman had one of the (if not the) lowest delinquency rates in Australia and I am the first to admit that home prices move in wave – like motions.
In 2006 Mosman sold just 366 houses for a median price of $2,050,000; in 2007 there were 373 sales for a median price of $2,400,000.
In 2008 the median went to $2,450,000 with 247 sales (see my point – less sales with a higher median).
In 2009 sales increased to 278 yet that median fell to $2,200,000, then in 2010 we saw 317 sales recorded and the median jumped up to $2,325,000. In 2011 it went to $2,400,000 with 270 sales, then in 2012 the median fell to $2,100,000 with 284 sales and in 2013 it jumped back to $2,345,000 with 379 sales. Only a genius could make sense from that data.
Earlier this year we read speculation that with the Australian dollar falling our unemployment was on track to be higher than America’s, given it appeared our unemployment rate was 6.00% and climbing. This week we were pleasantly surprised to see the unemployment rate tracking at 5.8% which is a far cry from being north of 6.6%. Although of concern would be the International Monetary Fund warning of new challenges to developing economies. The Australian economy is still seen as below growth trend, although they do have our unemployment tracking at around 6.2% so the latest unemployment results are a fabulous achievement.
Two other interesting observations this week with the All Ordinaries hitting 5,503.5, which is the highest intraday level since September 2008. Then a day later the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed property investor participation rates were trending downwards for the first time in 18 months.
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/04/11-04-2014-9-42-47-AM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8497" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/04/11-04-2014-9-42-47-AM.jpg" alt="11-04-2014 9-42-47 AM" width="629" height="386"></a>
Source: Digital Finance Analytics
One can only hope that this time around property investors are not jumping back into the stock market by borrowing against their property portfolios. If so, this would be yet again another recipe for disaster – but then again history does repeat itself given it is well documented the two don’t really mix.
The Australian Property Monitors March Quarter 2014 Report was released last week and revealed the most amazing statistic (a week of amazing statistics) that Sydney maintains the mantle as the most expensive major capital for tenants with the median weekly asking house rent over the March quarter at $500 and units at $490 per week. With house rents flat lining over the last twelve months, units continue to rise simply because of affordability and an obvious lack of supply which again is a problem caused by governments stymieing the development process.
The latest Landsbury Deep Leeds an Occasional Research Paper which was released last week, revealed the number of proposed apartments in Inner Sydney has grown 20% since their last report in September 2013 to now reach over 30,000. The pipeline now includes 156 projects or major stages of projects, up from 130 in their last report, spread widely across 40 suburbs in 11 local government areas. The Sydney CBD has the most apartments proposed with 4,900 in the Inner Sydney region although the fact that construction is years behind demand is causing Sydney major concerns given our younger generations are now moving interstate.
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/04/11-04-2014-10-05-06-AM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8499" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/04/11-04-2014-10-05-06-AM.jpg" alt="11-04-2014 10-05-06 AM" width="578" height="310"></a>
Last week the ABS predicted Melbourne’s population will overtake Sydney’s by 2053. In the last financial year, NSW lost 4,000 people to Victoria, where a majority are well-educated, highly productive workers in their 30s, in search of cheaper housing or a shorter commute. The tell-tale signs of this migration have been floated for years and are a major concern for Sydney given it lay idle for years and Melbourne on the other hand, was building apartment developments at the fastest rate of any capital city in Australia.
Once they leave it’s a very hard task to entice them back as businesses will move with the population and Sydney can ill-afford to see major business relocating to fit their workforces.
Just another reason why some state governments are seen as totally hopeless with absolutely no vision – the reality is that population planning is completely beyond their comprehension.
</body></html>

Why Sydney has a big problem with the future

<html><body>
As widely expected the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided again to leave the cash rate in a holding pattern for the seventh straight meeting although somewhat surprising the rhetoric was considerably different this time around.
Sydney is the elephant in the room with house prices jumping 15.6% in the last year according to RP Data, although I would add that this is a lazy way of explaining and defining the property markets across Sydney given they are all performing differently – some are hot and some are not.
Back to the RBA where in an extraordinary week we heard both Glenn Stevens and treasury secretary Martin Parkinson publicly declaring that Australia needs to be closely looking at and discussing taxes and government spending. Well not before time. We are fast drawing the conclusion that the elected ones in Canberra have absolutely no idea how to run a business – they appear to be the only ones who don’t believe that the rate of GST needs to be increased.
Reading between the lines there was a clear concern about what will be brought down in the May budget with a clear indication together with framed criticism by Glenn Stevens: “Put simply, there are things that we want to do as a society, and have voted for, that are not fully funded by taxes over the medium term, as is starting to become clear in the lead up to the May budget.”
<blockquote>
As strange as it might sound, I’m looking forward to seeing the cash rate increases.
</blockquote>
Personally I think it is fabulous when the likes of Messrs Parkinson and Stevens have the fortitude to publicly speak their minds by firing shots at the government on the eve of the budget. Let’s fill in a few gaps – NDIS and paid parental leave are the main culprits to which they were referring.
A perfect case in hand that should be at the forefront of the Abbott government's mind is that $16.2 billion Building and Education Revolution, the master class of the Rudd and Gillard terms which has now been condemned as an international case study of legislative and bureaucratic failure. Reading between the lines again, it would appear that Messrs Stevens and Parkinson are politely pointing out that the Australian economy can ill afford repeats of policy failures.
When you’ve been selling real estate for nearly 30 years, interest rates scare the living daylights out of you! And, as strange as it might sound, I’m looking forward to seeing the cash rate increases. Many economists are suggesting that this will happen in 2015 although I am of the opinion we will start seeing increases sooner rather than later with small increment increases.
<img src="/images/2014/04/07/simeon-april-7-one.jpg" alt="">
<img src="/images/2014/04/07/simeon-april-7-two.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/housing-bubble-fears-property-prices-could-fall-10-to-20-per-cent-20140331-35sg7" target="_blank" title="Housing bubble fears: property prices could fall 10 to 20 per cent">Housing bubble fears: property prices could fall 10 to 20%</a> was an interesting piece by Christopher Joye although it lacks market definition. Yes, certain parts of the Australian real estate market are over inflated, those being the new suburbs crashing through the $1,000,000 mark for the very first time which will, as history has shown, be the hardest and fastest hit. By comparison the traditional markets such as Paddington, Mosman, Pymble and Bondi, for example, are tracking upwards although at nowhere near the pace of the hotspot suburbs.
I can see the cash rate moving from its current rate of 2.50% to 3.50% next year which will in time place a number of households under increasing financial pressure, although we have seen this happen time and time again. Most notably in the early 2000s the cash rate fell from 6.25% in <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/cash-rate-1997-2001" target="_blank" title="September 2000 to 4.25 per cent in December 2001">September 2000 to 4.25% in December 2001</a>. We then witnessed dramatic market corrections in south-west Sydney as the cash rate started climbing to <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/cash-rate-2008-2014" target="_blank" title="7.25 per cent in March 2008">7.25% in March 2008</a> where it then started being eased to where we find it today at 2.50%.
So what amazes me more is that currently we are seeing record numbers of investors entering the market, which can be best described as panic buying – investors now make up 40% of value of total housing loan approvals in NSW and Victoria. So when and where we do see property market corrections this is when we see the astute investors entering the market – the experienced ones are certainly keeping their powder dry.
What this does clearly identify is that politicians and investors pay very little attention to history where more often than not they become part of history.
</body></html>

Robert Simeon

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Robert Simeon

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News