Article summary

<ul data-end="785" data-start="311">
	<li data-end="459" data-section-id="5hbcyr" data-start="311">Pikos Group has released the five-penthouse collection at Skye Kangaroo Point, headlined by a two-storey sky home spanning more than 1,000 sqm.</li>
	<li data-end="561" data-section-id="1p7lq8n" data-start="460">Early buyer interest suggests the residences could set a new Queensland apartment price record.</li>
	<li data-end="667" data-section-id="1y70z0l" data-start="562">The collection includes four move-in ready penthouses and the highly customised Skye One residence.</li>
	<li data-end="785" data-section-id="yvm0y1" data-start="668">The release caps one of Bri​sbane's most ambitious luxury apartment developments overlooking the Brisbane River.</li>
</ul>

<hr data-end="790" data-start="787" />
Pikos Group has released the five-penthouse collection at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/skye-residences-by-pikos-kangaroo-point-8-river-terrace-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Skye by Pikos</a> development in Kangaroo Point, with early buyer interest indicating the flagship residences could eclipse every apartment sale previously recorded in Queensland.

The collection crowns the luxury riverfront development with five residences, including four completed penthouses and Skye One, a two-level sky home spanning more than 1,000 sqm that will be tailored to its eventual owner.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374075]

Wanting to offer a fully customisable home, Pikos is offering Skye One as a blank canvas, allowing the buyer to work alongside the developer's design team to customise the home's layout, finishes and internal spaces.

The residence will feature a 247 sqm private rooftop terrace with its own swimming pool, sauna, steam room, outdoor kitchen and multiple entertaining areas overlooking the Brisbane River and CBD skyline.

The remaining four penthouses have been completed and are ready for immediate occupation, each offering four bedrooms, expansive open-plan living areas, soaring ceilings and private lift access.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374059]

One of the defining features throughout the project is its use of Roman Classic Travertine, with more than 20,000 sqm of the natural stone imported from Italy after being personally selected by Pikos Group Founder and Executive Director Pedro Pikos, interior designer Julie Williamson and third-generation stone specialist Mario Caucci.

Pikos said the penthouse collection represented the culmination of the company's long-term vision for Skye.

"True legacy isn't measured by what we build today, but by what endures tomorrow," Pikos said.

"Our ambition is to create places that become more valuable with time, enrich the lives of generations, and stand as timeless landmarks long after we've stepped away."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374060]

Williamson said the interiors were inspired by the natural character of Kangaroo Point and the Brisbane River rather than international design trends.

"Materiality tells the story of a place," Williamson said.

"We looked to the movement of the Brisbane River, the texture of the cliff face and the warmth of the surrounding landscape to create interiors that feel understated, enduring and unmistakably Brisbane."

Positioned above the Kangaroo Point cliffs, Skye places residents within walking distance of Howard Smith Wharves, South Bank and James Street while offering uninterrupted river and city views.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=90059]

Joel Robinson

Brisbane's next apartment price record? Pikos unveils Skye's exclusive penthouse collection

Article summary

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.

The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" />

The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.

“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;

“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."

Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."

"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." />

The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.

A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.

Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" />

Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.

“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.

“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.

“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" />

Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.

With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]

DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

A proposal to redevelop one of North Sydney's ageing commercial buildings has taken another step forward, with plans for a 38-storey mixed-use tower adding momentum to the long-awaited transformation of the Alfred Street precinct.

Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority-led State Significant Development pathway, the proposal for 271-273 Alfred Street would replace an underutilised commercial building with 95 apartments, ground-floor retail, commercial space and affordable housing. The proposal was submitted by&nbsp;Tara Shore Pty Ltd, acting for the John Taylor Family Trust.

While the project will deliver much-needed housing on the southern edge of the North Sydney CBD, it also represents another piece of a broader precinct that has spent years in planning limbo.

<img alt="First look: New public domain vision underpins 95-apartment North Sydney tower on Alfred Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7e1ce1b4-38df-48ab-992f-386814d86308" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Alfred%20St%20da%20podium.png?VersionId=sC_h6w.A9VEoB98qsqowPlIoz__sBZBt" />

Despite its proximity to both North Sydney Station and the Victoria Cross Metro, redevelopment of Alfred Street has progressed slowly over the past decade as broader planning controls, zoning and building heights remained unresolved. The introduction of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway has provided a new avenue for projects to progress, allowing rezoning and development assessment to occur concurrently and unlocking sites that have long been earmarked for renewal.

Designed by Office of Cortese &amp; Gilder, the proposal seeks to do more than replace an ageing office building. The architects have positioned the project as the first stage of a wider public domain vision that would improve pedestrian connectivity and create a more cohesive mixed-use precinct as neighbouring sites are redeveloped over time.

The proposal includes a widened Alfred Street setback, new street trees, landscaping and outdoor seating, along with a landscaped through-site pedestrian link connecting Alfred Street with Little Alfred Street. The connection is intended to become the first section of a future east-west pedestrian network extending across the precinct.

<img alt="First look: New public domain vision underpins 95-apartment North Sydney tower on Alfred Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8ea39ac3-46ad-4562-b4a0-b862e91c2dda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Alfred%20St%20da%20site.png?VersionId=K7umCd21KpetEFuVfsPlnJKhUOsmTTdV" />

The mixed-use tower would comprise retail space at ground level, commercial uses on level two and apartments from level three upwards.

In total, the development would deliver 95 apartments, including nine one-bedroom, 28 two-bedroom, 56 three-bedroom and two four-bedroom residences. Twenty-one apartments, representing 15 per cent of the residential gross floor area, would be secured as affordable housing and managed by a registered community housing provider for at least 15 years.

Nine basement levels would provide 133 resident car spaces, seven motorcycle spaces and 111 bicycle spaces.

According to the Architecture and Urban Design Report, the public domain strategy is designed to transform what is currently an inward-facing commercial edge into a more active and connected pedestrian environment, creating a stronger relationship between the commercial core and surrounding residential neighbourhoods.

Office of Cortese &amp; Gilder has also prepared a broader public domain framework spanning neighbouring properties between 263 and 283 Alfred Street, arguing that a coordinated approach to redevelopment will deliver better public spaces, improved tower separation and a more connected streetscape as the precinct evolves.

The proposal comes at a time where North Sydney is slated for future residential growth. Commercial developer FiveX has residential plans for the neighbouring site at 275 Alfred Street. They've proposed a 39-storey mixed-use tower with 184 apartments, while Freecity was recently approved for nearly 300 apartments across a 51-storey building on Walker Street.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-freecity-gets-green-light-for-mixed-use-apartment-and-hotel-tower-in-north-sydney">First look: Freecity gets green light for mixed-use apartment and hotel tower in North Sydney</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-fivex-plans-39-storey-residential-tower-in-booming-north-sydney">First look: Fivex plans 39-storey residential tower in booming North Sydney</a>

&nbsp;

Alfred Street the latest North Sydney pocket to be transformed by residential development

Buyers considering a residence at boutique Gordon townhouse development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/lume-gordon-43-47-dumaresq-street-gordon-nsw-2072">Lume</a>&nbsp;now have another reason to bring forward their decision.

For a limited time, purchasers of a residence at Lume will receive a BMW iX3 50 electric SUV, valued at more than $120,000, as part of their purchase. The offer is designed to add value for buyers while complementing the lifestyle envisioned for the architecturally designed Upper North Shore development.

Scott Timmins, Development Manager at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/winim">WINIM</a>, said the partnership was created to provide buyers with a compelling reason to act.

"In today's market, buyers need a compelling reason to act now, and the BMW partnership was designed to create that catalyst. We wanted to add genuine value for our future purchasers. Choosing the all-electric BMW iX3 50 also reflects the values behind LUME, forward-thinking design, innovation and a more sustainable way of living. It's a premium incentive that complements the lifestyle our buyers aspire to and rewards those who commit early."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374893]

Delivered by WINIM in partnership with Burtonwood Investment Partners, Lume comprises 14 architecturally designed two, three and four-bedroom townhomes created for families seeking the space of a freestanding house with the ease of modern, low-maintenance living.

The three-storey residences, designed by award-winning architecture practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, have been tailored for families and multi-generational living, featuring private internal lifts, flexible lower-level spaces, generous open-plan living and entertaining areas, media rooms, and landscaped outdoor spaces with custom outdoor kitchens.&nbsp;

Inside, engineered oak flooring, bespoke dining joinery with integrated wine fridges and backlit bars, sculptural porcelain bathrooms, Parisi freestanding baths and Astra Walker tapware create interiors that balance functionality with refined finishes.

Each townhome has been designed to combine generous internal spaces with sustainability initiatives such as EV charging infrastructure, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>'s landscaped communal areas, centred around a restored creek line and native planting, encourage residents to connect with nature and spend more time outdoors.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=269527]

Rothelowman's Gary Tsui said the architecture was conceived to respond carefully to its Upper North Shore setting.

"Our vision was to create elegant, uplifting homes that draw on and positively contribute to the local character through meticulously considered design and an interaction with the surroundings."

The communal landscape has been designed as more than an open space between homes. Arcadia's Ben Newell and Kate Phillips said the adjoining reserve provided an opportunity to create a distinctive natural retreat for residents.

"Just as waterways carve their way through Ku-ring-gai's landscape, a raised boardwalk weaves through the reserve, connecting the homes to this tranquil oasis."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374892]

Located just 300 metres from <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/gordon-nsw-2072">Gordon</a> Village and Gordon railway station, Lume offers convenient access to Sydney's CBD while placing residents close to some of the North Shore's leading schools, including Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College and Knox Grammar. Lane Cove National Park, Gordon Golf Club and a range of cafés and restaurants further reinforce the family-focused lifestyle on offer, with the BMW iX3 50 complementing everything from local trips around Gordon to weekend drives and city commutes.

Construction is underway with completion expected in mid-2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7354]

Boutique Gordon townhomes now come with a BMW iX3 50

Two apartments have sold for more than $10 million at EADE Byron Bay, setting some of the highest apartment prices ever achieved in the coastal town and underlining the growing appetite for luxury beachfront apartments in Australia's most popular coastal locations.

The $210 million project by Vitale Property Group has now secured more than $70 million in sales, led by residences that changed hands for $12.75 million and $11.75 million.

The record-breaking transactions reinforce the shift occurring in Byron Bay's premium property market, where affluent downsizers and lifestyle buyers are increasingly opting for high-end apartments over large beachfront homes.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/eade-byron-bay-29-shirley-street-byron-bay-nsw-2481">EADE Byron Bay</a> occupies a rare 6,000 sqm absolute beachfront site on the corner of Shirley and Milton Streets overlooking Main Beach and The Wreck surf break, just 350 metres from Byron Bay's town centre.

The 25-residence development is the first beachfront apartment project approved in Byron Bay in more than a decade and is currently under construction, with completion expected in May 2027.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359521]

The project has attracted a mix of local Byron Shire residents downsizing from larger homes, alongside interstate buyers from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane seeking a permanent coastal lifestyle without compromising on space.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hayball">Hayball</a> and with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/alexander-co">Alexander &amp; Co</a>, EADE comprises&nbsp;10 garden apartments ranging from 284 sqm to 622 sqm, nine with private pools, five full-floor apartments and 10 rooftop residences with private plunge pools, expansive outdoor entertaining areas and uninterrupted ocean views.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359527]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/vitale-property-group">Vitale Property Group</a> Managing Partner Chris Vitale said the project's combination of scale, location and limited future supply was driving buyer demand.

"There isn't another beachfront holding in Byron Bay of this size and position that could be developed again," Vitale said.

"Buyers are responding to the scarcity and the irreplaceability of a site of this calibre and to floorplans they can't find elsewhere in the market.

"We are seeing buyers place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of the location. The sales achieved to date demonstrate that discerning purchasers recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay.

"Many are coming from larger homes in the Byron region, or from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, and are after the space, security and convenience, without the upkeep of a house."

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359523]

The Byron Bay project follows Vitale Property Group's delivery of the Mondrian Hotel and Private Residences at Burleigh Heads, with EADE continuing the developer's focus on luxury coastal developments.

Residents will have access to a resort-style swimming pool, gymnasium, sauna, cold plunge pool, concierge services and dedicated workspaces, while the project is targeting an 8-Star Green Star rating.

EADE Byron Bay is being exclusively marketed by Projx Australia in conjunction with WHITEFOX Projects.

WHITEFOX National Projects Director Phillip Rand said demand had been driven predominantly by owner-occupiers.

"We are seeing buyers at EADE place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of this location," Rand says.

"The sales achieved to date demonstrate that purchasers at this level recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay."

Residences at EADE Byron Bay are currently priced between $4.75 million and $15.95 million.

&nbsp;

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&nbsp;

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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145590]

Vitale breaks Byron Bay records with EADE sales flurry 

Robert Simeon

<html><body>
 Is NSW building a property crisis?
Well there are many arguments to this equation although I don’t really believe we will see a major downturn from a real estate collapse. 
Parts of Australia are doing exceptionally well and other parts such as Western Australia (which are not reported) are experiencing massive corrections. The heart of the problem is that Australia is now into its sixth year of a low cash rate that looks to go even lower.
It was not a good week with the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releasing the jobless rate this week which showed that the jobless rate had jumped from 6.1% to 6.4% between January and December. Australia now has the second highest unemployment rate in the English speaking world. 
Of course the Abbott government will point to the Senate blocking key budget measures which is in part true however those measures are not going to resurrect the jobless rate. As I wrote last week – <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/2015/02/06/kick-start-the-economy-and-abolish-payroll-tax/" target="_blank" title="Kick start the economy and abolish payroll tax">kick start the economy and abolish payroll tax</a> given for years Treasury officials and commentators have expressed opinions that this tax is slowing down business growth and jobs.
NSW faces an election next month so imagine what would happen if NSW Labor announced that if elected they would abolish payroll tax? The NSW government has an extra $20 billion in the bank following the sale of poles and wires so it would be fair to see concessions made to their ugly taxes of stamp duty and payroll tax.
In 2013, 14 more than 860,000 real estate transactions were undertaken in NSW which in real terms equates to a windfall in stamp duty receipts. So what we have is the NSW government making hay whilst the sun shines, although I would issue a warning to them in that NSW will see fewer transactions given a large proportion of these transactions went to investors who are long-term investors. 
The other point that needs to be raised is that NSW and Victoria have the highest rates of stamp duty in the country where the rates have only ever gone up. In NSW the stamp duty paid on a median – priced home has grown to around 25% of annual disposable income per household, from close to 10% in 1991.
NSW is in the fortunate position that it has amazing upside with investors clamoring to buy bricks and mortar largely within a 15 kilometre radius of the CBD. These suburbs are gold plated where for the very first time they have multiple buyer demographics – overseas buyers, investors, home owners and first home buyers to a lesser degree.
One Mosman real estate agent incorrectly reported this week (no surprises there) that Asian buyers accounted for around 20% of Mosman house sales in 2014. Like most things we have read about real estate in recent times there is much more fiction than there is fact. 
I went to CoreLogic RP Data and noted that Mosman recorded 353 house transactions in 2014 and looked at the vendors names and noted that on 36 occasions the buyers had Asian names. So 36 transactions from 353 sales shows a market share of 9.8% and the vast majority of these would be Australian residents – although we will never really know.
You see it’s very easy for an overseas buyer to transfer money to an Australian resident to buy a property which is placed in the resident’s name. Down the track, when the overseas party is granted Australian residency, so long as they show proof that the buyer of the property was acting as their “trustee” and all the monies paid was theirs, then at a cost of $50 they can transfer the property into their name – it’s that easy. 
The Foreign Investment Review Board never hear or even see these stealth property transactions, but the state government does receive stamp duty from the transaction although many would argue that this loophole needs to be closed as a matter of urgency. The other problem is that the appointed authorities have no idea that this even exists or for that matter happening. If it’s a loophole then it should be closed.
So back to the cash rate, which has now been at record lows for six years and will in all probability stay at these lows for probably another six years. The average term for a mortgage is 25 years so what we are seeing is half that term (12 years) at record lows where nearly all are not on interest only repayments. So theoretically, when the cash rate does start increasing those households would have paid down the greater share of their respective mortgage.
A NSW Greens candidate has weighted into next month’s election by proposing significant changes to the rights of those renting:
<ol>
<li>Allow landlords to impose one increase in rent per year.</li>
<li>
Cap rent rises at the rate of inflation (or the CPI) which is usually around 2 to 3% each year.
</li>
<li>Not allow landlords to evict tenants without a valid reason.</li>
</ol>
So when it comes to property and taxes in NSW, we all must remember that our politicians know best.
</body></html>

robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Is NSW building a property crisis?

<html><body>
Abolish payroll tax and kick start the economy; it’s that simple! 
Problem solved – cue the Henry Tax Review which found that of the major heads of taxation revenue, payroll tax is more damaging to the economy than company tax. 
When Australia entered the global financial crisis, instead of handing out money, payroll tax should have been immediately abolished. If Australia wants to have strong employment then back the engine room that drives the economy, instead of greedy states and territories trying to destroy it.
If the Prime Minister wants to save his position he should act immediately on this given last week’s cash rate cut is not going to save the economy. What we are clearly seeing now is home owners and property investors being given the greatest free kick in Australian economic history with the majority well ahead of their respective mortgage repayments. Unless something is done we will see the cash rate at the current level and possibly lower for quite some time to come.
One only has to look at the NSW report on state finances for 2013-14 where a surplus of $1.247 billion was announced thanks mainly to residential and commercial sales. Nobody likes paying stamp duty on real estate transactions especially since they too were supposed to be abolished in 2000 when the GST was introduced. For those who follow the property markets closely ask yourself one simple question – where would real estate prices be today if stamp duty had been abolished? You’re right – they would be much higher.
Back to the 2013-14 NSW state finances report where government revenue grew by 9.8% and expenses grew by just 4.6%. Payroll tax receipts were $248 million which was much less than forecast – surprise, surprise.
The Abbott government needs to act decisively and fast given the budget is in such disarray that this week we saw the governor of the Reserve Bank and the new head of Treasury deliver a dire warning to Cabinet that unless the Senate passes the government’s spending cuts, the budget is at risk of never getting back to surplus. If payroll tax was removed the government would get back to surplus much faster as businesses can then re-invest much more back into their respective businesses instead of being fined for employing people.
If Tony Abbott wants to shirt-front something then there would be no better place to start than by abolishing this absurd tax that is dragging the economy down. What remains to be seen is whether or not our politicians in Canberra have the economic intelligence to recognise this anchor on the Australian economy and act forthwith.
Interesting to read <a href="/expert-insights/finance/what-central-banks-around-the-world-are-doing-with-interest-rates">what central banks around the world are doing with interest rates</a> given many are now predicting that the RBA will cut again when they meet next month. The RBA recently released their credit aggregates for December 2014 which identified that home lending is now up to a record $1.42 trillion. Total credit grew by 5.9% with housing posting 7.1%, business 4.8% and personal credit 0.9% in annual terms. If payroll tax were to be abolished business credit would almost double – which is exactly what our economy needs. Why is it that that elected governments fail to recognise this, given this would also drive up spending and GST receipts?
Maybe we need to do a test case, so where better to start than NSW – the best performing state in Australia. NSW also has a state election looming so it would be political suicide for either major party to fight such a decision.
The states and territories made a mockery of removing nominated taxes when the GST was introduced so it’s high time the electorates started reminding these governments that enough is enough.
Aside from politicians, I am yet to find anyone who supports payroll tax in Australia.
So what does that tell you?
</body></html>

Abolish payroll tax and kick start the economy: Robert Simeon

<html><body>
At the start of every New Year the first things we see for some strange reason are predictions.
 Even stranger when it comes to property there are only two possible outcomes: boom or crash. What exactly happened to the glass half full or half empty philosophy?
So my prediction for 2015 is that the Australian property markets will see some half full and others half empty movements. One would have thought that many real estate commentators were embarrassed and fooled by the Australian property markets in 2014 given their out of control ‘bubble’ declarations, only to find out it was investors driving the market not households (as they incorrectly reported).
So let’s move to the nitty gritty facing 2015 – a record low cash rate, low inflation and low GDP. This means again that investors will be faced with just the two alternate options; equities or the residential real estate markets. Real estate will again be the preferred investment strategy of choice in 2015 – more particularly as they continue to propel their self-managed superannuation funds.
After all it’s much easier to monitor the idiosyncrasies of the real estate markets than it is with equities – the latter are global markets where real estate is much more local orientated. Of course an argument will pop up that the global financial crisis (GFC) was global where property prices fell 25% on average approximately. In the vast majority of cases prices are now back (or close to) the 2007 benchmark prices.
When one then looks at the RUOK markets in 2015 – NSW looks like being the star performer again. Western Australia held the mantle for the last three years although with the mining decline and a working population shift it finds itself in correction mode having slipped to third place, with Victoria in fourth and Queensland fifth spot. NSW has now posted constant strong jobs growth which then ricochets to job security which then ricochets to consumer spending.
As a natural progression the high profile debating team of boom and bust will be front and centre in 2015 with the usual ‘Australia has the most expensive housing prices in the world’. Well one would have thought that if the situation was that dire the GFC average correction should have been much more severe – but it wasn’t.
Yes, Sydney prices over the last two years are reportedly up 30% but what conveniently keeps being omitted is that the formula applied is a ‘median’ price and Sydney has the most expensive top end residential real estate in Australia, so this figure is actually inconsequential given Sydney’s top sale for 2014 was $39 million. 
Housing markets can be irresponsibly skewed when you have Australia’s number one top end market or, better still, Sydney is using a top end steroid to drive up its median price. A shame this is not pointed out.
He’s baaaack! <a href="/news/steve-keen-says-the-australian-property-bubble-could-keep-going-through-2015">Steve Keen says the Australian property bubble could keep going through 2015 </a>– For some strange reason (again) I struggled to follow his line of reasoning as to what would prompt a decline in property prices. That nasty four letter word keeps popping up – debt. However, we should remember the word that always precedes debt is managed.
As I predicted last year we will see two 0.25% cash rate reductions in the first half of 2015 with the cash rate sitting at 2% as at 30 June 2015. Of course when the cash rate starts firming back up only then will we see some corrections in property prices as many will struggle to ‘manage their debt’.
We need to look closely at the DNA of those commentating on the Australian real estate markets – and I can’t go past Steve ‘Headline’ Keen. 
Back in September 2008, he told Jonathan Chancellor that he was listing his Surry Hills, Sydney apartment with $500,000 expectations. His reason for selling at the time, “partly to put my money where my mouth is and partly due to changed personal circumstances.” 
I’m sure based on current comparable sales he wouldn’t be that happy to observe that if he had held on, he would be up approximately 50% today from when he sold.
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Sydney top end sales skewing median price: Robert Simeon

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I made one glaring observation about the Australian property markets in 2014: many commentators have absolutely no idea how the markets work and persistently work and respond accordingly from incorrect data.
In 2014 there was no bubble that burst, there was no property boom, although Sydney in particular led the charge of the letterboxes given there is a misguided focus on median house prices. Of course it’s an absolute no-brainer when you constantly use the Sydney figure given the top three house price sales were three eastern suburbs homes for $39.000 million, $37.000 million and $32.000 million (approximately) which obviously skews the median prices to silly levels.
Commentators then force feed this data by suggesting that the Sydney median house price is surging and this is reflective for all price demographics. When you remove the elephants in the market – otherwise known as the investors – Sydney performed well although by no means a property boom/bubble.
I agree that Sydney luxury residential to run second only to New York in 2015: Knight Frank however if you removed the new overseas buyer surge Sydney would in all probability be in decline, given this is what is driving the top – end currently. It will be interesting to watch in 2015 if the report on foreign investment in residential real estate has any impact on the top – end property markets given the significant exposure this topic has received.
We auctioned an apartment last Saturday and a prospective buyer asked me if they could bid given this prospective purchaser did not have Australian residency nor FIRB approval (they must have seen my cameo on 7.30 recently). I advised them no and the only way they can legally bid is to put the property in the daughter’s name then transfer the name once approval was granted and then they would have to pay stamp duty again. They decided to pay double stamp duty if they were successful although they missed out.
2015 will be an extraordinary year for real estate given for the first time we will see new measures which, depending on how severe, are all aimed at tempering the insatiable appetite of property investors. Firstly, we will watch with interest how the macroprudential measures are applied and the effect this has on property investors. Short-term, we can expect to see a little hesitance although the investors will return bigger than ever. Of course the investor threshold has APRA concerned given it’s now well above the 10% comfort zone. The threshold is much like the inflation rate where the Reserve Bank likes to keep this between 2 and 3%.
The other big talking point in 2015 will be negative gearing given it is now being described as a class warfare –which is the last thing the federal government wants to hear. No doubt the Murray Inquiry will be front and centre for real estate debate given it was a sweeping review which made 44 recommendations with 13 taxes requiring attention.
Will this inquiry be treated with the same disdain as the Henry Tax Review whose many recommendations were quickly filed in the too hard basket? I expect much of the same given the Abbott government is struggling in the polls – although I would add that nothing would surprise me. In 2011/12 (yes, these are the current figures to work from) Australia had 1.9 million property investors, so one can only imagine how much this has increased given the huge role property investors have played in 2013/14. Whatever the outcome we can expect to see some form of tinkering with negative gearing although having said that nobody really knows for sure what impact this will have on property markets in general.
In 2014 very few got the cash rate predictions correct which remained unchanged for 2014 at 2.50%. Full marks to Australia’s head teller Glenn Stevens who was under all sorts of pressure from a multitude of peanut galleries to prick this property bubble. His reading of Australia’s property markets proved to be 100% correct, although sadly very few acknowledge the outstanding job he does by getting these crucial calls right.
It would not be an easy job given the vast majority of the Reserve’s decisions is made from incomplete and more often than not inaccurate data. Or as our head teller recently described this as “the vagaries of quarterly national accounting”.
I wonder what his thoughts are on the Sydney median house price given the methodology applied should be the definition of dumb and dumber?
Over to the Mosman market where the greatest number of houses on the market in 2014 (in any one week) peaked at 123 (on 20 November) Mosman on seven occasions had more than 100 properties for sale and that was from 23 October to 4 December. The greatest number of apartments on the market in 2014 was 76 on 27 November. Cremorne houses peaked at 21 on 16 October and Cremorne apartments peaked at 41 on 6 November. Neutral Bay houses peaked at 15 on 20 March and apartments peaked at 54 on 16 October.
On reflection these are small numbers in comparison to previous years (pre-GFC) so the local markets remain constant albeit somewhat docile – we don’t see any significant changes for 2015. Our policy is to call the market as it is – warts and all.
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In 2015, expect to see measures to temper investor demand

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The eagerly awaited <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/~/media/02%20Parliamentary%20Business/24%20Committees/243%20Reps%20Committees/Economics/44p/Real%20Estate/Report/Front.pdf" target="_blank" title="Report on Foreign Investment in Residential Real Estate">report on foreign investment in residential real estate</a> was finally released last week and yes, the House of Representative committee has done a reasonable job with its findings.
Although with closer scrutiny, many questions remain both unclear and without a definitive answer.
The Chair’s forward starts with a predictable warm and fuzzy moment: “Buying into the Australian Dream doesn’t come cheap.” 
Only to proceed to the most amazing faux pas: “There is no simple explanation for the decline in housing affordability – although lack of land supply (a government responsibility), underdevelopment (a government responsibility), state planning laws and regulations (a government responsibility), local council red tape (a government responsibility) and stamp duty and tax arrangements (a government responsibility) likely all play a part.”
 What a fascinating admission that surely warrants another inquiry into these frank admissions.
“According to Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) statistics, in the first nine months of this financial year, FIRB approved foreign investment into residential property of around $24.8 billion, 44% higher than the $17.2 billion approved during all of 2012/13. Much of this investment is concentrated in the Melbourne and Sydney markets. Most of the increase is attributable to proposed investment in new property, which at $19.3 billion for the first 9 months of 2013/14 is 79% higher than 2012/13. The total number of established property approvals for the first 9 months of 2013/14 is 5,755 compared to 5,101 for 2012/13.”
Then the clanger: “First, there is no accurate or timely data that tracks foreign investment in residential real estate. No-one really knows how much foreign investment there is in residential real estate, nor where the investment comes from.” 
That being the case then how can the House Economics Committee find that foreign investment is not causing distortions in the Australian housing sector – when by their own admission they concede they have no idea how much real estate has been sold to foreign buyers?
Then of course: “During the course of the inquiry, it came to light that no court action has been taken by FIRB since 2006. During the entire Rudd-Gillard-Rudd government, not one divestment order was issued, which means that not one government sale of illegally acquired property was made. This compares with 17 divestment orders between 2003 to 2007 when foreign investment in residential real estate was at much lower levels.”
They quite conveniently failed to mention that for some strange reason the Rudd government abolished FIRB approvals to foreign investment during the course of the global financial crisis. At the time it was most unclear as to what was exactly happening as decisions based on FIRB appeared at best chaotic. How can you then prosecute when the Rudd government made this totally legal?
Of course the bull in the china shop (no pun intended) is those many loopholes that exist to overseas buyers in that it is very easy for a family member who resides overseas to simply transfer monies into an Australian bank account. The family member here goes out and buys a property in their name and when the overseas family member gains Australian residency they simply pay the stamp duty to transfer the property into their own name.
Alternatively, attaining Australian residency can take a few years so it is much easier to take up New Zealand residency – an almost immediate process. New Zealanders are permitted to buy all forms of Australian real estate so it is very easy to beat the system. It is just a shame that the Senate Inquiry missed many of the existing trap doors that remain open in the Australian property industry today.
Of course it is just a mere coincidence that the Chinese government requested a bipartisan arrangement with the Australian government to process the identities of all Chinese buyers who purchase Australian real estate. Cue the establishment of a national register of land title which still requires approval from the states and territories – who are yet to be consulted on this measure.
Then of course the recently announced Free Trade Agreement with China allows any Chinese national full access to acquire any commercial or agricultural property up to $1 billion. 
I’m really struggling to get my head around this.
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Foreign buyers inquiry leaves many questions unanswered

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Are you a vertical or horizontal analysis type?
Most would answer that they are not sure given they apply a number of metrics whilst attempting to draw a conclusion on a particular subject. Real estate is a classic example; there are so many suggested formulas that can be applied to draw a conclusion, yet there is no stand-out determination process.
I was asked this week: What is the best method within the real estate industry to better understand what exactly what is going on? I was also asked: Do I look at the markets from a vertical or horizontal position? 
The answer to that would be both. On a weekly basis I look at the stock number movements and the <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="weekly sales activity.">weekly sales activity.</a> Unlike the share market which closely watches the market capitalisation from its All Ordinaries Index, the real estate market is an entirely different beast and offers no decisive measures or methodology.
The residential and commercial investor stampede has been unprecedented in 2013 and 2014 prompting many to call this a property ‘bubble’. One should ask the question, if the ‘bubble’ theorists were investing in real estate would they still refer to this as a ‘bubble’. Of course not because they are simply commentators, not participants and there is a striking difference between the two. 
The investors are looking at the markets overall from a vertical position (which also encompasses their entire investment portfolio) whilst the commentators have adopted a horizontal position concerned only at what’s immediately before them.
To put these theories into practice one must apply what I call the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/science/features/whyisitso/" target="_blank">Professor Julius Sumner Miller</a> analogy – “Why is it so?” Firstly, are the Australian real estate markets weaker or stronger post global financial crisis (GFC)? The answer to that is that the markets overall were much stronger pre-GFC, although for some strange reason this point is entirely missed in the debate (thanks to the horizontal observation). We need to remember that prior to the GFC, the Australian economy was basking in an unprecedented 20 plus years of economic growth.
Next, in the “why is it so?” analogy, trying to understand why the household and the investment markets bear no resemblance to what is happening in the property markets. In particular the Reserve Bank, which is actually now quite blasé with its outlook, especially when commenting on the Australian real estate markets. Why aren’t households trading-up to take full advantage of the historical low cash rates?
Look no further than the latest <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2014/nov/pdf/dom-eco-cond.pdf" target="_blank" title="Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy ">Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy</a>: “The forecast for output had not materially changed. GDP growth was still expected to be below trend over 2014/15, before gradually picking up to an above trend pace towards the end of 2016.”
It’s all very well to borrow more and upgrade the family home given record low rates, so what’s stopping the markets from jumping-in?
Look no further than annual wage growth, which is presently at the slowest rate on record. It’s all very well to increase the debt ratios in the present environment (horizontal analysis) but when one applies the vertical analysis there are severe headwinds ahead when rates start to rise again, which looks like 2016/2017.
The Reserve Bank pointed out in another one of their papers recently: “Nominal labour income has grown at an average annual rate of 2.7% over the past two years, compared with a decade average of 6.2%. And the widespread expectation is that wage growth will remain subdued for a time.”
Another clue is the rising rate of household borrowers who have preferred to pay back their loans via the interest-only option, which is not a positive sign for when the cash rate starts heading back to that pre-GFC thingummy called ‘normality’.
So this might go part of the way into trying to explain this thing called a ‘bubble’ – I prefer to call it a burp (due mainly to a lot of external wind).
On that basis we can expect to see the cash rate coming down further in 2015, only to (hopefully) see it start increasing late in 2015 to early-2016, as a best case scenario.  Watch annual wage growth statistics as they become available given this is an obvious trigger for increased action in the housing markets. For those on the interest-only option, you still have the best part of 12 to 18 months to strategise your best options going forward, history tells us it is not simply a case of 'who dares wins'.
So to answer (or should that be update) my preferred options when analysing the real estate markets: I am a confirmed vertical observer.
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What's the best method to understand the real estate market?

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The headline should not to be confused with Fifty Shades of Grey, although many would argue that the audiences are struggling to differentiate between fiction and nonfiction. 
Property is a best seller although it’s becoming quite evident that when some write about property market events you will attract more eyeballs and interest if one uses the stratagem approach – such is the competition today for audiences.
Easily the largest chapter in the 2014 edition of the Fifty Shades of Property has been that ‘bubble’ (although some weeks ago this plot lost credibility when data was released revealing that the majority of states and territories in Australia were reporting price retreats). 
What, no crash? This can’t be happening – we need a monumental property derailment in Australia like the rest of the world.
Of course Sydney has been the stand – out performer thanks wholly and solely to the investors. Although the authors maintain that touché mantra by referring to Sydney data as Sydney house prices – when in fact it’s well documented that the apartment market is the huge performer thanks to investor frenzy. Nonetheless, for the sake of the argument it will read better for the audience when we call this Sydney house prices – despite this really being nothing of the sort – so manipulate the headline to achieve another touché.
<blockquote>
Easily the largest chapter in the property story this year has been that ‘bubble’ (although some weeks ago this plot lost credibility).
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At this time every year we start to see new chapters being added, such as recession and massive unemployment for the year ahead – again fiction coming to the fore. Which takes me to a refreshing piece written by David Bassanese in The Australian Financial Review this week – <a href="https://www.afr.com/p/business/property/we_need_house_price_rises_to_grow_aWxB8rIXMqkj6p9X9o0nzM" target="_blank" title="We need house price rises to grow economy.">We need house price rises to grow economy.</a>
"The Australian economy has had an outstanding run over the past two decades and has admirably dodged a number of global upheavals that might have felled lesser economies. Any economist south of 40 – years – old has no working knowledge of what it feels like to fall into a wrenching recession.”
Now isn’t that the truth. As too, his critique of the Australian housing markets:
“More recently, an increase in commentary about a house price bubble has also been allowed to develop, when all we’ve seen to date is an overdue cyclical upturn in house prices – and in only a limited number of states – on the back of especially low interest rates.
"Surprisingly, even the Reserve Bank has been lulled into expressing concerns that the housing market has become ‘unbalanced’ between investors and first home buyers – so much so it’s threatening to dampen critical investor demand through new macroprudential controls.
“How serious are Australia’s housing problems? Relative to household income house prices are only nearing past cyclical peaks – and mortgage affordability is still better than average due to low interest rates.
“The fact that investors are more prominent in this cycle should be no surprise given the rental yields have remained attractive relative to interest rates, and rental vacancy rates are tighter than normal – helped in part by the fact that foreign students make up an important element of Australia’s rising population.
“To the extent the growing role of self-managed super funds and foreign investors raises concerns, these are best tackled at source by changes to laws.”
That is what I would call a nonfiction critique of what’s actually taken place and yes, Australian Treasury is presently investigating 33 potential foreign ownership breaches – although I can see many, many more chapters on this topic for the 2015 edition.
For the writers who unwisely decided to adopt a blood and thunder approach to Australia’s property markets, one can only hope they have learnt a valuable lesson from their embarrassing forecasting – given it’s very clear they have failed the credibility test.
As Mark Twain once wrote: "Most writers regard the truth as their most valuable possession and therefore are most economical in its use."
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Fifty Shades of Property: Where fact meets fiction

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The question that really needs to be asked is why investors have become so one dimensional? 
The answer is pretty easy given servicing household debt presently sits at the lowest level for the best part of a decade. Finally, as the dust settles commentators are starting to recognise that home owners and first home buyers have not been caught up in the Sydney property euphoria.
Property investors are simply following infrastructure trails such as the South West Rail Link, which is due to be opened early in 2015. What many forget is that such vital infrastructure is decades behind where Sydney’s cumbersome and tired transport networks should really be. These areas are high impact growth areas, although some see them as nothing more than an investor wave of speculation. Of course Sydney’s projected population explosion has no significant relevance in this debate.
One of Australia’s largest residential developers Meriton is <a href="/news/meriton-harry-triguboffs-12-billion-company">currently courting Chinese property developers</a> with the view to selling their entire operation to them – another clue.
Again key points keep getting missed here; the Sydney property market <a href="/expert-insights/the-real-estate-market-is-going-global">is now a global market.</a> We keep referencing what is happening in China, yet fail to point out the increasingly growing number of Chinese residents that now want to call Sydney home as well as a multitude of other nationalities. Sydney is envied as it continues to attract investor funds, which further drive ongoing infrastructure investment given its solid reputation for employment and population growth.
Then of course we must not forget the second Sydney airport which the federal government announced on 15 April, 2014 would be located at Badgerys Creek at a cost of $6-8 billion – again another colossal infrastructure spend. As quick as a flash investors jumped on to this newly created wave of speculation only to see local property prices post double – digit growth.
 What then happened was that the likes of RP Data and APM Price Finder released ridiculous property statistics heralding Sydney house price growth explosions, despite not even closely resembling what is happening in the Sydney markets overall, which if anything have been subdued. The reason is that they sell their respective suburb reports – so given that overall results are average to reasonable at best. They then manipulate key word statistics to on-sell their products. 
This takes me to that old saying pertaining to the use of statistics in the media: “Some people use statistics like a drunken man uses a lamp post – for support rather than illumination.”
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/11/6-11-2014-9-15-54-AM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-223176" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/11/6-11-2014-9-15-54-AM.jpg" alt="6-11-2014 9-15-54 AM" width="539" height="366"></a>
On 7 August, 2013 the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decreased the cash rate from 2.75% to 2.50% where fourteen months on it still sits at 2.50%. In time we will see this cash rate become the longest ever hold in RBA history. As I have commented on numerous occasions before, the next move by the RBA will be down. There is a very strong possibility the first number of the cash rate will, in all probability, remain at 2.00 something for quite a few years to come – advantage investors.
Cue the much awaited Murray inquiry which is due for release this month with many agreeing not before time. There are, amongst many interesting recommendations that will be made, two in particular (but I’m speculating). 
The first – that Australian banks must hold more high quality capital to offset their risk weighting of housing loans. If proven true, this will quite possibly see investors move from bank stocks to residential real estate investment. 
Secondly, to offset that risk the Murray Inquiry will recommend negative gearing changes where investors can only claim against that particular asset, as against broad based investment deductions.
On that basis the Abbott government would accept all the recommendations given it would be much easier to sell and furthermore reduces the federal government’s financial exposure to negative gearing – which has become a major mover and shaker in the property investment market. With the benefit of hindsight it’s an embarrassment that the previous Labor government decided to completely ignore the Henry Tax Review recommendations.
It has become completely obvious that RBA ‘jawboning’ has not worked given investors are very, very short on investment choices. The Murray Inquiry ‘macroprudential’ lever will all but ensure that the Australian cash rate remains with a two in front for quite some time to come.
For those actively spruiking that imaginary ‘bubble’ conversation – your argument basically ceases to exist. Unless of course you’re from RP Data or APM Price Finder and you’re selling ‘suburb reports’.
The saddest part with this entire property critique is that property investors are mistaken in the vital role they play in the machinations of the Australian economy. Australian Census figures reveal that approximately one-third of the Australian population reside in rental properties.
The Murray inquiry will make for compelling reading where no doubt it will more than ruffle a few feathers.
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Sydney investor splurge is much ado about nothing

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The NSW government would be well advised to start planning immediately to ensure the state's momentum keeps moving forward well into the next decade – failure to do so would clearly indicate that managing the state of NSW is well beyond their capabilities. 
They say success leaves clues, so look no further than the Sydney property market which has delivered the NSW budget a $1 billion windfall thanks to stamp duty and other related property taxes. NSW Treasury has just announced the final result for 2013/14 with a surplus of $1.247 billion – well up from the June budget estimate of $988 million.
The reality is that property prices have started to cool and commodity prices down 20% this year. Hence, it’s time to start fast tracking the next phase of NSW growth with confidence building infrastructure approvals. On current projections, Sydney will (at a minimum) need to double its 1,673,800 homes over the next 50 years – so there is no time like the present to get started – carpe diem.
It’s well documented that massive growth spurts follow new infrastructure developments – former NSW state architect Chris Johnson has forecast that Sydney needs to build 11 new highrise apartment towers each year for the next 50 years to protect suburban life from being ruined by overdevelopment as the city’s population grows. 
“Five thousand new towers, containing 110 apartments each, would provide 550,000 new homes – that will accommodate only a third of our planned population growth over the next 50 years,” said Johnson.
It’s not hard to see where declines are quickly starting to take place with BIS Shrapnel pointing out this week: “The recovery to a net overseas migration intake of 242,800 in 2012/13 was underpinned largely by a rebound in such arrivals. However, with arrivals now trending downwards as resource sector investment slows, net overseas migration flows weakened to 235,800 in the year to December 2013 and monthly indicators since then suggest a further slowing.”
The latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics reveal that Australia’s population increased by 160,000 births over deaths and a further 244,000 people through immigration – which is now the big driver in this demographic. NSW in 2013, had a natural increase of 50,000 extra people, net overseas migration added 68,000 extra people with 15,500 people deciding to reside elsewhere. As Chris Johnson pointed out: “The demographics for Sydney are clear. Growth is coming and is essential for the long-term prosperity of the city. It will keep house prices stable, it will provide jobs, it will support our ageing population and it will position us as a global city.”
Of course a major problem that requires immediate attention is Australia’s public transport which is hopeless given two-thirds of the country’s population resides in the capital cities. Everyone knows that the state and territory have neglected public transport for decades, so you can’t start announcing residential infrastructure initiatives without substantial public transport upgrades.
Cue the blame game between the states and federal government as to where these responsibilities lie. The latest in this ongoing debate is now clearly aimed at reforming Australia’s Federation – although this has major challenges in itself given the “vertical fiscal imbalance” with all the states and territories wanting more of the GST cake portions. This explains why a Federation white paper is being prepared to address Australia’s revenue and spending responsibilities of all governments.
In 2014 -15, NSW will receive 97 cents for every dollar of GST it pays, Victoria will receive 88 cents and WA will receive just 37 cents – so this explains why reforming the state and territories is such a difficult task.
In the case of NSW, you see businesses wanting to get going despite being constantly held back as they await the relevant approvals given NSW does not have a masterplan for development.
 The most obvious case is that in 2013/14 the NSW government pocketed $1.247 billion in taxes for doing next to nothing – just imagine what those revenues might be if they were to announce a residential real estate infrastructure plan? Who knows, first home buyers may even be able to get in given a significant number of apartment developments would actually bring prices down.
The only problem for the NSW government is that it has a long history of living in the past.
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It's time for NSW to stop living in the past and seize the day

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I have been following the latest run of property propaganda in the media with great interest. 
The only part that remains missing (by coincidence) is that the markets are in fact cooling. The reality is that, despite being an agent (the majority miss this point), I think this is a positive sign.
It should be noted that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have already made this observation some time ago. What, no bubble? Well that was property propaganda. 
Some are simply hellbent on misrepresenting the statistics that are quite simply totally irrelevant to the argument. No, let’s be polite and call it a discussion – albeit biased for personal gain.
Australian Property Monitors (which is owned by Fairfax Media) was quick to release its September quarter results noting that <a href="/expert-insights/buying/sydney-strength-drags-along-slowing-house-prices-apm">the national median house price was up 1.2%</a> in the last quarter. Who cares what the national median does; it’s totally irrelevant. If a vendor asked a real estate agent to appraise their property and they started quoting the national median price then the Sydney median price they would be laughed out of the home.
The national result was the lowest since March quarter 2013 and wait for it – house prices were down in Brisbane (-1.3%), Adelaide, Perth (-1.5%), Canberra (-1.7%) and Hobart. Darwin prices were up (2.9%), Melbourne struggled with just 1.0% and Sydney was up 3.8%.
Based on this data I’ll make three quick observations: Melbourne will in all probability be in negative growth territory by the end of the December quarter, Sydney will stagnate as investors are pumping this statistic and the next RBA rate move (sometime in 2015) will be down. 
So let’s stop for a moment and give credit where it’s due – the RBA have read the Australian domestic market perfectly.
Contrary to what property propaganda bashers would have you believe, this is a very soft landing with absolutely no bubble-pop or monumental crash of epic proportions. 
I’ve argued long and hard for years that it is only when you analyse the housing market statistics by a ‘single’ municipality that you get an accurate assessment. When you do critique the performances of, say, the 38 Sydney municipalities, there is nothing to write home about. 
<a href="/news/nsw/not-all-sydney-areas-are-booming-the-citys-three-worst-performing-regions">Not all Sydney areas are booming: The city’s three worst performing regions</a> – Yes! 
Breaking data down by region, which by the way is not politically but rather media incorrect, is not how they want demographic property markets displayed for human consumption.
The preferred media modus operandi is obviously to bundle market data given the media organisations (News Limited and Fairfax Media) rely heavily on newspaper advertising revenues.
 Unfortunately these statistics (median price growth) don’t include how much of this growth was attributed to the investor splurge (local and overseas) – although there are some important observations to be made from the following graphs.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-202706" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/10/23-10-2014-12-05-51-PM.jpg" alt="23-10-2014 12-05-51 PM" width="613" height="321">
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-202708" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/10/23-10-2014-12-07-14-PM.jpg" alt="23-10-2014 12-07-14 PM" width="562" height="370">
Now it’s no coincidence that we see an almighty upward swing (above) from September 2012 in the second graph. Only when you cross reference this graph to the RBA Cash Rate Target data do you see that on 7 August, 2013 the cash rate dropped to the current position of 2.50%. Investor returns were being decimated in the financial markets, so a property investor assault was inevitable and continues to this very day.
Now we read that negative gearing needs to be abolished despite recent revelations that Sydney for the first time in decades is seeing rents declining – which again is a positive sign. It is inevitable that one day the government will critique negative gearing (just don’t hold your breath).
As strange as this may sound given Australia’s mining industry continues to decline and the real estate and associated industries remain the largest employer within Australia. Where would the Australian economy be today without negative gearing?
Negative by name, whilst positive by result!
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Robert Simeon

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