<p>Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.</p>

<p>The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.</p>

<p>It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.</p>

<p>With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.</p>

<p>“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.</p>

<p>“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" /></p>

<p>GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.</p>

<p>“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”</p>

<p>Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.</p>

<p>“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" /></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.</p>

<p>Green praised local policy settings.</p>

<p>“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”</p>

<p>One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.</p>

<p>“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.</p>


Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

<p>It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.</p>

<p>Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.</p>

<p>Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be</p>

<p data-end="683" data-start="511">"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]</p>

<p>The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.</p>

<p>The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.</p>

<p>Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]</p>

<p>Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.</p>

<p>The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]</p>

<p data-end="247" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="0">While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.</p>

<p>WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.</p>

<p>With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]</p>


WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.</p>

<p>The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.</p>

<p>The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.</p>

<p>The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]</p>

<p>Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.</p>

<p>Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.</p>

<p>Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]</p>

<p>Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.</p>

<p>“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.</p>

<p>“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”</p>

<p>“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.”<br />
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]</p>

<p>The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.</p>

<p>Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.</p>

<p>The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.</p>

<p>The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]</p>

<p>Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.</p>

<p>“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.</p>

<p>“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”</p>

<p>A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.</p>

<p>That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.</p>

<p>The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]</p>

<p>According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.</p>

<p>Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.</p>

<p>The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.</p>

<p>The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.</p>

<p>That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.</p>

<p>The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]</p>

<p>The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.</p>

<p>“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.</p>

<p>“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”</p>

<p>The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]</p>


Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

<p>National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.</p>

<p>The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.</p>

<p>Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]</p>

<p>Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.</p>

<p>Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.</p>

<p>“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.</p>

<p>He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.</p>

<p>“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.</p>

<p>“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]</p>

<p>Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.</p>

<p>Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.</p>

<p>Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.</p>

<p>Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.</p>

<p>The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]</p>

<p>Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more international and domestic flights.</p>

<p>Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.</p>

<p>Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]</p>


NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

<p>Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.</p>

<p>The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.</p>

<p>The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.</p>

<p data-end="792" data-start="529"><img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" /></p>

<p data-end="1040" data-start="794">According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”</p>

<p>The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.</p>

<p>The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.</p>

<p>Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.</p>

<p>“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.</p>

<p>The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.</p>

<p>The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”</p>

<p><img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" /></p>

<p>The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.</p>

<p>While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.</p>

<p>“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.</p>

<p>According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.</p>

<p>“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.</p>

<p>“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”</p>

<p>The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.</p>

<p>Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.</p>

<p><img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" /></p>

<p>St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.</p>

<p>Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.</p>

<p>The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.</p>

<p>More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.</p>


First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

Rba Rate Decision

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>As widely expected the RBA left the cash rate on hold at 0.75% at its November board meeting.</p>
<p>While we thought a rate cut was justified, recent commentary from the RBA had suggested little urgency on its part so today’s on hold decision was not surprising. </p>
<p>The post meeting Statement was a little bit more upbeat referring to: a scaling back in market expectations for interest rate cuts globally; a “gentle turning” point in the local economy; expectations for growth to pick up to 3% by 2021, recent inflation data being broadly as expected; and further signs of a turnaround in the established housing market.</p>
<p>However, while the RBA still sees growth picking up to around 3% in 2021, it has yet again downgraded its growth expectation for this year to “around 2.25%” from 2.5% in August. And don’t forget that a year ago it expected growth this year of 3.25%.</p>
<p>Apart from maybe feeling a bit more upbeat, the RBA probably also decided to pause in easing to give tax and rate cuts to date more time to work. But it’s interesting that it made no reference to September’s very weak retail sales report which along with continuing weak car sales suggests very little boost to consumer spending from the tax and rate cuts so far.</p>
<p><span>The final paragraph of the RBA’s post meeting Statement repeats that its “reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required” and that “The Board will continue to monitor developments, including in the labour market, and is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time.” Quite clearly the RBA retain an easing bias.</span></p>
<p><span>Based on the US experience which has required unemployment and underemployment to fall to 7% just to get wages growth of 3% year on year, full employment in Australia probably means unemployment around 3.5-4% and underemployment around the same level so we have a long way to go!</span></p>
<p><span>As a result, we remain of the view that further RBA monetary easing will be required and is likely. Growth is still likely to remain subdued and below trend for longer than the RBA is allowing. This will keep unemployment higher for longer and wages growth and inflation below target for longer. Consequently, more easing will be required to achieve full employment and clear progress to the inflation target. What’s more inflation has been running below target for more than four years now and the longer this is allowed to persist the more the inflation target will lose credibility and won’t be the “strong nominal anchor that people can rely on when making their decisions” that Governor Lowe has stated the Board is seeking to provide.</span></p>
<p><span>Ideally more fiscal stimulus is required (such as a bring forward of the stage 2 tax cuts, a boost to Newstart, inducements to large companies to investment more and increased infrastructure spending where possible) as this would give a bigger bang for the buck and could be more fairly targeted. But in the absence of more fiscal stimulus, pressure remains on the RBA for further easing. We continue to see the cash rate being cut to a low of 0.25% in December and February but this could also come with quantitative easing measures designed to lower bank funding costs and increase the banks’ pass through of rate cuts to borrowers.</span></p>
<p><span>The RBA’s forward guidance is also likely to be toughened in the next few months to say something along the lines that the RBA “doesn’t expect to consider raising interest rates until inflation is near the mid-point of the 2-3% inflation target.”</span></p>
<p><strong>Meanwhile, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s decision to make no changes to the RBA’s inflation target and the broader Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy of which it is a part makes sense</strong><span>. </span></p>
<p><span>The interpretation of meeting the inflation objective as being “on average” and “over time” has served Australia well and has contributed to the relative stability of the Australian economy. To lower the inflation target to 1-3% as some were arguing should occur would have blown its credibility, pushed the $A up sharply and boosted the risk of deflation and falling wages which is the last thing we want given high household debt levels. Making the target stricter – by requiring say a BoE style letter each time the target is breached – could force the RBA to become inflation nutters. So thankfully it remains unchanged.</span></p>
<p><span>The only thing now is to get inflation back to target “on average” and “over time.”</span></p>
<p><span><em><strong>SHANE OLIVER</strong> is the Chief Economist for AMP Capital<br></em></span></p>
</body></html>

soliver-smf6LQXgW9

More RBA easing may be necessary in the future: Shane Oliver

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Some positive signs for the economy and a push by the federal government for banks to relax lending standards for small business will allow the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to take a break from cutting official interest rates.</p>
<p>With the cash rate reduced to a record low of 0.75 per cent, the RBA may have done enough for the time being to help boost consumer confidence despite disappointing September retail sales figures.</p>
<p>Having confident consumers is a major contributor to an economic turnaround and the domestic economy is still showing signs of improvement. </p>
<p>It is good to see the Government talking to the banks about the way they have been applying the responsible lending guidelines to small and medium-sized enterprises. By supporting more lending and our SMEs we should see positive signs of further economic improvement.</p>
<p>In this environment there is no real need for the RBA to do much more until they get a better view of the economy into the first quarter of next year.</p>
<p>It will be good to see consumers break the shackles and start spending again in the lead up to Christmas. Hopefully the central bank’s rate reductions have helped give consumer confidence a boost.</p>
<p>I urge mortgage holders to regularly review their home loans to ensure they were getting the best possible deal.</p>
<p>Mortgage holders should never be complacent about their home loan.</p>
<p>While interest rates are at historic lows, lenders are willing to battle for your business. Contact a mortgage broker to make sure you are getting the best terms possible and, most importantly, save money.</p>
<p>John Kolenda is the managing director at <a href="https://www.finsure.com.au/" target="_blank">Finsure</a>.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><span> </span></p>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

RBA can take a summer holiday: Finsure's John Kolenda

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate at a record low of 0.75 per cent.</p>
<p><em>What has changed since the last meeting?</em></p>
<p>- The Consumer Price Index rose by 0.5 per cent in the September quarter; annual rate 1.7 per cent.<br>- The Australian jobless rate fell from 5.3 per cent to 5.2 per cent in September.<br>- The CoreLogic national home price index rose by 1.2 per cent in October.<br>- Retail trade rose 0.2 per cent in September.<br>- Real retail trade fell by 0.1 per cent in the September quarter.<br>- The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds from 2 per cent to 1.75 per cent.<br>- Job ads fell by 1.0 per cent in October.<br>- Tax refunds totalled $20 billion in the three months to September.<br>- The Australian dollar has generally held around US67o 69 cents.<br>- The US and China are reportedly progressing on a ‘Phase 1’ trade deal.<br>- UK to face a December election; Brexit date now January 31.<br>- US sharemarkets hit record highs.</p>
<p><strong>The Assessment</strong></p>
<p>The Reserve Bank has refreshed its views, commentary and forecasts. Overall, the tone of cautious optimism is maintained as is the easing bias. But the Reserve Bank doesn’t seem to be setting the stage to act on the easing bias by cutting rates again in December. The next opportunity to cut rates is February 2020 after the Reserve Bank assesses economic growth, inflation, unemployment and inflation data.</p>
<p>The Reserve Bank has given its customary ‘sneak peek’ at its latest forecasts. The jobless rate is tipped to remain near 5.25 per cent for some time. Similarly inflation is not expected to budge from near 2 per cent, actually through to 2021. Economic growth is tipped to lift to around 2.25 per cent this financial year and then to 3 per cent in 2021.</p>
<p>Inflation is edging slowly towards the Reserve Bank’s 2o 3 per cent target zone. The Reserve Bank Board believes this progress will continue. The Federal Treasurer has expressed his support for maintaining the target band and made no change to the Statement on the conduct of Monetary Policy.</p>
<p><strong>Perspectives on interest rates</strong></p>
<p>The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate at 0.75 per cent after cutting rates in June, July and October, each by 25 basis points. There have now been 15 rate cuts since November 2011 with the cash rate cut from 4.75 per cent.</p>
<p>Previously rates rose seven times from October 2009 to November 2010 from 3.00 per cent to 4.75 per cent.</p>
<p><strong>What are the implications of today’s decision?</strong></p>
<p>The Reserve Bank Governor continues to express optimism, saying that the economy has reached a ‘gentle turning point’. Home prices have certainly lifted since the election, especially in Sydney and Melbourne. Encouragingly employment continues to grow, lifting purchasing power in the economy.</p>
<p>The labour market and consumer spending will remain in the spotlight. Overseas, the US-China trade talks and Brexit will dominate attention. The Reserve Bank is expected to leave the cash rate unchanged until at least early 2020.<strong><em><br></em></strong></p>
<p><strong><em>CRAIG JAMES </em></strong><em>is the Chief Economist at CommSec</em></p>
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RBA retains tone of cautious optimism for Australian Economy: CommSec's Craig James

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<p>At its meeting today, the Board decided to keep the cash rate on hold at 0.75 per cent.</p>
<div>
<div class="rss-mr-content">
<p>While the outlook for the global economy remains reasonable, the risks are tilted to the downside. The US–China trade and technology disputes continue to affect international trade flows and investment as businesses scale back spending plans because of the uncertainty. At the same time, in most advanced economies, unemployment rates are low and wages growth has picked up, although inflation remains low. In China, the authorities have taken steps to support the economy while continuing to address risks in the financial system.</p>
<p>Interest rates are very low around the world and a number of central banks have eased monetary policy in response to the persistent downside risks and subdued inflation. Expectations of further monetary easing have generally been scaled back over the past month and financial market sentiment has improved a little. Even so, long-term government bond yields are around record lows in many countries, including Australia. Borrowing rates for both businesses and households are also at historically low levels. The Australian dollar is at the lower end of its range over recent times.</p>
<p>The outlook for the Australian economy is little changed from three months ago. After a soft patch in the second half of last year, a gentle turning point appears to have been reached. The central scenario is for the Australian economy to grow by around 2¼ per cent this year and then for growth gradually to pick up to around 3 per cent in 2021. The low level of interest rates, recent tax cuts, ongoing spending on infrastructure, the upswing in housing prices in some markets and a brighter outlook for the resources sector should all support growth. The main domestic uncertainty continues to be the outlook for consumption, with the sustained period of only modest increases in household disposable income continuing to weigh on consumer spending. Other sources of uncertainty include the effects of the drought and the evolution of the housing construction cycle.</p>
<p>Employment has continued to grow strongly and has been matched by strong growth in labour supply, with labour force participation at a record high. The unemployment rate has remained steady at around 5¼ per cent over recent months. It is expected to remain around this level for some time, before gradually declining to a little below 5 per cent in 2021. Wages growth remains subdued and is expected to remain at around its current rate for some time yet. A further gradual lift in wages growth would be a welcome development and is needed for inflation to be sustainably within the 2–3 per cent target range. Taken together, recent outcomes suggest that the Australian economy can sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment.</p>
<p>The recent inflation data were broadly as expected, with headline inflation at 1.7 per cent over the year to the September quarter. The central scenario remains for inflation to pick up, but to do so only gradually. In both headline and underlying terms, inflation is expected to be close to 2 per cent in 2020 and 2021.</p>
<p>There are further signs of a turnaround in established housing markets, especially in Sydney and Melbourne. In contrast, new dwelling activity is still declining and growth in housing credit remains low. Demand for credit by investors is subdued and credit conditions, especially for small and medium-sized businesses, remain tight. Mortgage rates are at record lows and there is strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality.</p>
<p>The easing of monetary policy since June is supporting employment and income growth in Australia and a return of inflation to the medium-term target range. Given global developments and the evidence of the spare capacity in the Australian economy, it is reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required in Australia to reach full employment and achieve the inflation target. The Board will continue to monitor developments, including in the labour market, and is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time.</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="box-enquiries"> </div>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
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Established housing turnaround: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's November 2019 meeting statement

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<p>The Reserve Bank have decided to leave the cash rate on hold at a historic low 0.75 per cent.</p>
<p>It <a href="/expert-insights/finance/established-housing-turnaround-rba-governor-philip-lowes-november-2019-meeting-statement">noted a further turnaround in established housing</a>, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p>The decision comes after a month of some positive news for the Reserve Bank, namely in unemployment which <a href="/news/rba-breathe-sigh-of-relief-as-seasonally-adjusted-unemployment-nudges-lower">dropped back to 5.2 per cent</a>.</p>
<p>Last weeks slight inflation uptick was <a href="/expert-insights/investing/inflation-rate-creeps-towards-rba-target-zone-commsec">further good news for the RBA</a>.</p>
<p>CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless said the decision to hold rates was widely anticipated given the RBA is running out of conventional monetary policy ammunition.</p>
<p>"The decision to keep rates on hold was supported by the latest labour market and inflation readings, which saw the national unemployment rate nudge lower, while annual headline inflation edged slightly higher," Lawless said.</p>
<p>"Additionally, a rebound in housing values and a rise in buyer activity will hopefully begin to flow through to a gradual improvement in household wealth and spending. </p>
<p>Lawless suggested the RBA will be carefully monitoring other indicators which have continued to lose momentum such as consumer confidence, residential construction activity and retail spending. </p>
<p>"One of the negative side-effects of such historically low interest rates is that Australian households and businesses are reading through the low rate setting and becoming less confident about their household finances and the outlook for the economy, which is offsetting some of the stimulatory benefits of historically low interest rates. </p>
<p>"Although the cash rate has remained on hold, lenders are becoming increasingly competitive, particularly for high quality borrowers – ie those with low debt relative to their incomes and a responsible track record of savings together with expenses that are in line with their incomes. </p>
<p>"No doubt the lowest mortgage rates since at least the 1950’s and improved access to credit following APRA’s decision to adjust the interest rate serviceability floor are contributing to a rebound in housing market conditions. </p>
<p>"While the improved housing market conditions are a positive for broader economic conditions, an increase in speculative activity from property investors or a slip in the quality of lending standards could be the trigger for a new round of macro-prudential policies aimed at maintaining prudent lending standards and keeping a lid on further accrual of housing related debt.</p>
<p>Finder.com.au's RBA Cash Rate Survey saw all of its 38 experts predict a rate hold at today's meeting, however two thirds of the experts surveyed believed the cash rate will drop to 0.5 per cent in February 2020.</p>
<p>Only 21 per cent think there will be a cut in December.</p>
<p>Sally Tindall, research director at RateCity, says that despite there being no movement this month, another rate cut is still very much on the cards for the future: </p>
<p>"When you look at the big 4 banks, on average their 3-year fixed rates are a quarter of a percent lower than their lowest variable rates, which is a strong indication the cash rate will continue to fall," Tindall said.</p>
<p>"In fact, the market is expecting rates will remain low for very long time. Five year fixed rates have hit an all time low of 2.74% while variable rates are as low as 2.69%.</p>
<p>"But these rates are reserved for new customers so if you want to take advantage of this, you might have to turn yourself from an existing customer into a new one."</p>
<p>Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital, says the are still expecting an easing in December and February.</p>
<p>"<span>With growth likely to remain subdued and the econ a long way from full employment further easing is needed," Oliver tweeted.</span></p>
<p><span>"So in the absence of significant fiscal stimulus soon we still expect another easing in Dec &amp; Feb."</span></p>
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RBA holds interest rates at November Cup Day meeting

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<p>There's an increasing number of consumers who think now is a good time to buy property, however Finder.com.au's RBA Cash Rate Survey found experts and economists weren't so sure.</p>
<p>In April 2019, nearly 60 per cent of experts reported positive sentiment about housing affordability in Australia, however that number has now dropped to 17 per cent. </p>
<div><strong id="docs-internal-guid-c802fc80-7fff-e67d-e999-b8d7117cba26"><img src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/14mfL2vxFbPOJ3cFpZOa6i62wsnie6nBWosnmUPQHx3uQibyOWzOFucfx1Z0dBHBKXm7J4Th7ODSM1BoAF3Y9Y1q2A4DUrCEZs-ImIKUnHVcrQjX5fXYYxQeWvVFfI2hZu1CdbyQ" width="602" height="416"></strong></div>
<div><strong> </strong></div>
<div>Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said economists clearly haven’t been persuaded by this year’s three RBA rate cuts when it comes to housing.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>“Housing affordability cuts both ways. When it is high or economists feel positive, property prices can be relatively low meaning more Aussies have a chance to buy," Cooke said.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"The flipside of course is home values might be trending in the wrong direction and no one wants to catch a falling knife.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>“When housing affordability is low or economists feel negative, the cheery news is that property values are on the way up, but unfortunately it also means that those ready to buy might not be getting a bargain,” Cooke said.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Peter Boehm of KVB Kunlun said the RBA cuts are actually doing more harm than good.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"House prices have been increasing (making it harder for first time buyers to get into the market), existing mortgage holders are maintaining repayments at current levels to help reduce their debt quicker, and therefore not spending this "freed up" cash," Boehm said.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>“There's been little or no impact on the unemployment rate, corporate investment has not rebounded, business confidence is low, and the continuing reduction, and signalling of future rate reductions is sending negative messages to consumers about their economic outlook,” Boehm said.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite this lack of faith from economists, consumer sentiment is on the uptick.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Finder Consumer Sentiment Tracker™ – established in May 2019 – surveys more than 1,000 Australians each month and among other things, asks consumers a simple yes or no question: do they believe now is a good time to buy property?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In October, 59% agreed it was a good time to buy property, up from 54% in May.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong id="docs-internal-guid-5297ecab-7fff-f2b9-8c6b-de54502d1961"><img src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/425R06iHRsilioYVuEpEucV9KGYoEYe2-EU7-VP3lhxeAdb_0kZVcNscMt3VBCTvzJPZk88zH7DZv0jjK_WGUfBYpL5-yKvbQd5GRt2fvc-idwF-yvR4t3BubeiTKaKDez8x9GKQ" width="602" height="333"></strong></div>
<div><strong> </strong></div>
<div>Cooke said consumers are likely responding to the positive news they are seeing about house prices in Australia.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>“Buying property is still considered ‘safe as houses’ in Australia, but it’s taken with a grain of salt in many countries since the global financial crisis.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>“House prices don’t always rise and the economy doesn’t always perform well.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>“We’re seeing house prices now increasing fairly consistently, while other economic factors have not really improved.“This shows that the surge in prices is likely due to cheaper borrowing from three RBA cuts of 2019, rather than an indication of an improving economy,” Cooke said.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>“Nobody knows what’s around the corner, but the chances that this price boost is a dead-cat-bounce seems less and less likely as prices continue to recover,” Cooke added.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>“First time buyers with a deposit saved<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>may miss the good-value window if they don’t get into the market soon.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>“If we keep seeing prices increase as dramatically as they’re doing now, the market will have fully recovered within a year,” he said.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Cooke said the key for anyone looking to save a deposit is to maximise their savings.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>“You’ll find better ongoing rates with smaller banks such as UBank and ING and neobanks such as 86 400 and Up than you will with the bigger banks. A little bit of homework can go a long way to boosting your deposit,” he said.</div>
<div><strong><span> </span></strong></div>
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Is it time to buy property? Consumers keen, but experts not so sure: Finder

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>The Reserve Bank Board meets on November 5 next week.</p>
<p>There is little chance that the Board will decide to cut the cash rate at that meeting.</p>
<p>Westpac confirms its forecast which was “refreshed” on July 24 that the Board would cut the rate by 25 basis points at the October meeting (done) and the February meeting in 2020.</p>
<p>Markets are pricing in a probability of a miniscule 4% for a November move.</p>
<p>However it was not always like that.</p>
<p>Back on October 4, I wrote, “we cannot concur with the markets pricing in a 50% probability of a follow up move in November".</p>
<p>There are a number of reasons for this caution.</p>
<p>Firstly, markets should understand that central banks will usually bias their comments on days on which they make policy changes to justify the decision. We saw some examples of that approach in the Governor’s Statement.</p>
<p>For example, he has, for no reason that is justified by the data, adopted a bolder objective than had been the case before by aiming for “full employment” rather than the more modest, “reduce unemployment” that we saw in September.</p>
<p>With the unemployment rate trending away from his full employment target and, by his own admission, "forward-looking indicators of labour demand indicate that employment growth is likely to slow from its recent fast rate" the introduction of that full employment target as a substitute for the more realistic “reduce unemployment” seems curious and is probably less significant than markets may have assessed.</p>
<p>We also think the RBA will be mindful of the response of the Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index to the consecutive cuts in June/July. Following the cut in July the Index fell by 4.1%. There was an apparent “spooking” of the consumer around the policy action.</p>
<p>With the RBA seeing the consumer as the key to the growth outlook, a “back to back” series of rate cuts leaving limited scope to cut further and risking a similar response from the consumer would counsel against that November move.”</p>
<p>Since that note we saw the Westpac MI Consumer Sentiment Index fall by 5.5% in response to the October rate cut, providing further evidence of the fragility of Confidence to low rates.<br>Under such circumstances consecutive rate cuts would seem to be a significant policy mistake.</p>
<p>Apart from the arguments I put forward on October 4 we have also seen an absence of downside surprises in both the Employment and Inflation reports with both the unemployment rate falling modestly from 5.3% to 5.2% and the trimmed mean annual inflation rate holding steady at 1.6%.</p>
<p>Looking further out, markets have turned against prospects for a December rate cut with probabilities falling from 80% back on October 4 to 25%.</p>
<p>We concur with that assessment but are surprised that market pricing for February has tumbled from 100% on October 4 to 50% today.</p>
<p><em>Read full report <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/November/er20191101BullRBAonHoldNov.pdf">'RBA on hold in November' (PDF 73kb)</a></em></p>
<p><em><strong>BILL EVANS </strong>is the Chief Economist at Westpac<br></em></p>
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RBA on hold in November, 2020 growth and inflation forecasts unchanged: Bill Evans

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<div class="storysegment2 segmentContentFull">
<p>Dubbed the “rate cut whisperer­” for his foresight in tipping RBA moves, Westpac chief economist Bill Evans says there will be no Melbourne Cup Day rate cut.</p>
<p>Despite the downbeat economic climate, Evans says the Reserve Bank of Australia will sit on their hands tomorrow.</p>
<p>“There is little chance that the board will decide to cut the cash rate,” Evans (below) advised­ Westpac clients.</p>
<p>While few economists think there is any probability of a November move, Evans said he was “surprised” that the market pricing for a February cut had recently tumbled.</p>
<p>His next forecast rate cut — the fourth since June — is for the February 2020 meeting, when Evans fears the unemployment rate will be trending away from the central bank’s full employment target.</p>
<p>He said the RBA was “mindful” of the recent movement in the Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index.</p>
<p>The index suggests that, following the consecutive rate cuts in June/July, there had been an ­apparent “spooking” of retail consumers.</p>
<p>While most economists had stridently tipped interest rates to be on hold during 2019, Evans was the first of the big bank economists to break from the pack in ­seeing the need for rate cuts.</p>
<p>Evans has maintained for several months that “there is ample evidence” that the economy is weak.</p>
<p>“But this is not a ­recession with the associated extreme pain for households, businesses and institutions, as experienced in the early 1990s, and 1974 and 1982-83 before that,” he said.</p>
<p>“Fiscal policy has considerable scope to act quickly if the recession signals strengthen; there will be a Budget surplus in 2019-20 and debt-to-GDP ratio at the federal level is low.”</p>
<p>Evans, who joined Westpac as the chief economist in 1991, had previously worked in the RBA’s research ­department.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Sydney’s weekend auction clearance rate dipped to 79 per cent — the first time below 80 per cent since late September.</p>
<p>There were 672 auctions with 510 results captured and 404 properties sold.</p>
<p>Agents say there have been few signs of obvious hesitancy in the market where 16,000 properties have changed hands since spring began.</p>
<p>“Sydney has been the strongest capital city over the past quarter,” realestate.com.au chief economist Nerida ­Conisbee noted, tipping that “the supply-demand imbalance is reflective of an early cycle that will lead to strong price rises in premium suburbs”.</p>
<p>Last month Conisbee said: “The current correction looks like it is coming to an end. Nervousness about access to finance was the main factor driving a complete shift in sentiment towards ­housing.”</p>
<p>This article was first published in the Daily Telegraph.</p>
<p> </p>
</div>
<p> </p>
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Bill Evans, the rates ‘whisperer’ says the best bet is no RBA Cup Day cut

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Market mispricing?</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>If you'll kindly indulge a Tuesday night blog post after an evening talking, um, Australian monetary policy at the Clock Hotel (n.b. soft drinks only!), then herewith it follows. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>One week ago the October 2019 RBA Minutes were released, and they stated that, if needed, policy would be eased further <em><strong>to achieve full employment and the inflation target. </strong></em>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DRBZQLy3u2w/Xa7Rmuaj5lI/AAAAAAAAyb0/9eymjiILxfw9dfOchYSpgYfk1z-bP_JdgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/RBA4.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DRBZQLy3u2w/Xa7Rmuaj5lI/AAAAAAAAyb0/9eymjiILxfw9dfOchYSpgYfk1z-bP_JdgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/RBA4.jpg" width="640" height="202" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="831"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: RBA</span></em></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Then on October 18 the RBA Governor delivered a designedly upbeat speech to the IMF in Washington, which justifiably highlighted Australia's record unbroken stretch of economic growth among other Antipodean successes (including the floating currency, which often - though not always - moves in harmony with commodity prices). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I didn't listen to the audio live, but while we don't need to link to all of the media pieces, across the board we saw a rash of articles suggesting that the RBA is done with cutting and has hosed down the prospect of further cuts.<br><br>A bit odd, it seemed.<br><br>
</div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yOb6CoNIbAM/Xa7QjD8vWaI/AAAAAAAAybg/bQhRxx6datcUorhTVySG840RkCNgvS_ZACEwYBhgL/s1600/rba.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yOb6CoNIbAM/Xa7QjD8vWaI/AAAAAAAAybg/bQhRxx6datcUorhTVySG840RkCNgvS_ZACEwYBhgL/s640/rba.jpg" width="640" height="594" data-original-height="687" data-original-width="738"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>I'll come back to this point, but I broke one of my own golden rules here: at the risk of sounding like an episode of <em>Yes, Prime Minister,</em> always listen to what was actually said, not what was said about what was being said!</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Inflation smoked</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest employment figures were <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-gentlest-of-turning-points" target="_blank">modestly positive</a>, but the leading indicators are weakening and there was no indication that labour force slack will be reduced significantly, or that full employment will be on the horizon any time soon. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unemployment was still uppish at 5.2 per cent, and the underemployment rate remained <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-gentlest-of-turning-points" target="_blank">way high at 8.3 per cent</a>. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Looking towards next Wednesday's inflation figures for the September quarter, it's hard to see where any inflationary pressures at all are going to come from, except for - yet again - smokes. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There may well be some food price inflation due to the drought (which itself drags further on economic growth), but rental price growth will be at or close to record lows, and there may be some other offsetting<span> factors. </span>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Crunching through the numbers, with a hat tip to the ever-brilliant Justin Smirk at Westpac, spits out trimmed mean inflation of, say, 0.3 per cent, and the weighted median may well be even lower still.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>So that gets you to annual core inflation of about 1½ per cent for trimmed mean, and just 1.2 per cent for the weighted median, which is so far below the mandated target you could drive a truck through the gap (or an attractively priced new SUV the way new car sales have been tracking!). </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>If all of this proves to be the case - and, by the way, the mid-point of the inflation target is 2½ per cent - why wouldn't the RBA be cutting with bells on?</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Financial markets have effectively priced out a November cut - and almost any further cuts at all - as far as I can tell because some people said that's what the Governor said...but is that what was said?</span></div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">What's the French word for nuance?</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>To recap briefly, we have a 'no' to full employment, and a resounding 'no' for being close to achieving the inflation target, which market expectations see as a distant dream. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Now let's go back to the IMF speech, and more specifically the very brief Q&amp;A segment.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then to a question from the floor!<br><br>Question: has the RBA got 'a lot of work to do' in terms of delivering monetary easing (the cash rate is at 0.75 per cent), and should we assume negative rates or other unorthodox policies?</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-clR0lulvZts/Xa7QjR6iU9I/AAAAAAAAybk/Gr6cNLxerWop15HuL3ZX5MUE0_VVFXOOQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/rba2.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-clR0lulvZts/Xa7QjR6iU9I/AAAAAAAAybk/Gr6cNLxerWop15HuL3ZX5MUE0_VVFXOOQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/rba2.jpg" width="640" height="314" data-original-height="548" data-original-width="1111"></a></div>
<div>
<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em><br></em></span><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Source: RBA</em></span>
</div>
<div>To my mind, there's only one way that a central bank Governor could've answered that question given the circumstances, and here it is:</div>
<div> </div>
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<div><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: RBA</span></em></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">November live</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>Now I could be off beam here - it's happened on this blog at least once before! - but this answer, and perhaps some of the remainder of the transcript might have been misinterpreted...and the market pricing may in turn have been led astray. </div>
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<div>No central banker could have reasonably responded 'we have lots more to do' on easing, and the question on negative interest rates was always going to be batted to the fence, which it quite rightly was. </div>
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<div>The consensus view is that there will be no further easing this year, but if inflation is as low as it looks to be - essentially a sin tax on tobacco and a bit of drought-related food price inflation - then the November meeting could be a live one.<br><br>I've leaned heavily here on the analysis of Sophia Rodrigues of Central Bank Intel (if you're an institution you should subscribe to her forthcoming content), and another prominent markets analyst in Sydney (well, it's the Clock Hotel, you can work it out). </div>
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<div><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. </em></div>
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Why the November RBA meeting may be live: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
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<p><span>Why has the treasurer of Australia, Mr Josh Frydenberg let the banks off the hook for not passing on the full interest rate cut when the RBA reduced interest rates by 0.25% of a 1% earlier this week to stimulate the economy.</span></p>
<p>Two of the big banks CBA &amp; NAB have refused to pass on the full interest rate cut to their customers, profiting on the back of everyday Australians.</p>
<p>When the Treasurer, Mr Josh Frydenberg was interviewed by Ross Greenwood on the today show of Channel 9, instead of bringing the banks to account threatening them with new legislation to force them to pass on 100% of the rate cut he put the earnest on the customers to shop around for a better deal.</p>
<p><span>The process of changing lenders is very difficult and intrusive, and the banks have too much control over their clients. </span></p>
<p><span>The federal government of Australia needs to be held to account to stop the big banks holding their mortgage holders to ransom and not passing on the rates cuts which are meant to stimulate the economy not their bottom line. </span></p>
<p><span>This has an effect of stifling economic growth, short changing every day Australians and damping confidence and restricting the growth of new jobs.</span></p>
<p>Glenn Farah is a partner at real estate agency NGFarah.</p>
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