A general rule of thumb in new apartment developments is that the penthouses get the rooftop.

It's a formula that's become commonplace across Australia's apartment market. Residents might have access to a pool, gym or barbecue facilities on a dedicated lower level, but the most desirable outdoor spaces are typically reserved for the highest-priced homes at the top of the building.

Sherpa Group has taken the opposite approach.

Rather than dedicating the rooftop to a handful of buyers, the Gold Coast developer has made it the centrepiece of its Flourish collection, creating expansive shared spaces from the best vantage point in the building.

The philosophy has reached its most ambitious expression at Flourish Soleira in Palm Beach, where two rooftop precincts connected by a skybridge will deliver one of the most extensive lifestyle offerings seen in a residential apartment project on the Gold Coast.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374053]

"We're seeing a clear move toward developments that offer more than just an apartment," Sherpa Group founder Christie Leet said.

"People want spaces that support how they actually live, whether that's working from home, staying active, or spending time with family and friends.

"That's where amenity becomes critical. It's not just about what's included, but how those spaces are designed to be used every day."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374052]

The breadth of amenity has already attracted buyers across multiple demographics. Younger first home buyers have been drawn to Soleira's one-bedroom apartments, a product rarely delivered in Palm Beach, while families have responded to practical inclusions such as the shallow children's pool adjoining the main lap pool and the extensive communal recreation areas.

Instead of a single rooftop, Soleira delivers two distinct lifestyle zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]

The southern rooftop has been dedicated to wellness, featuring a gym, yoga and Pilates studio, work-from-home facilities, a wellness centre, spa, and hot and cold plunge pools.

The northern rooftop focuses on recreation and entertaining, incorporating a heated resort-style pool, private dining rooms, pizza ovens, barbecues, a golf simulator, children's recreation areas, and what is expected to be the Gold Coast's first rooftop basketball court, which will also double as a squash court.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374054]

Beyond the rooftops, Soleira will introduce 1,500 sqm of curated retail beneath the towers, creating one of Palm Beach's first genuinely mixed-use lifestyle precincts where cafés, restaurants and convenience retail become part of residents' everyday lives.

Sherpa has also retained management rights across the development, allowing it to oversee the long-term operation of the building through a 24-hour concierge model. The developer is also exploring additional revenue streams within the precinct aimed at helping offset ongoing body corporate costs for residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370962]

While Soleira is the largest project Sherpa has delivered, the rooftop-first philosophy has been evolving for several years.

It began with Flourish Amargo, the first project released under the Flourish brand. Rather than competing at the ultra-luxury end of the market with oversized half-floor and full-floor residences, Sherpa focused on creating lifestyle-driven apartments supported by resort-style shared spaces.

Amargo introduced more than 800 sqm of rooftop amenity, combining wellness facilities, heated pools, entertaining areas, cabanas, pizza ovens and private dining spaces into what was designed as an extension of residents' homes rather than a facility used only occasionally.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=366550]

That approach continued with Flourish Oasis, where the same amenity-led philosophy was refined into a more boutique development. Strong demand from Sherpa's growing VIP database saw much of the project sold before it reached the broader market, reinforcing buyer appetite for apartment communities centred around shared lifestyle experiences.

Flourish Amargo is slated for completion mid-way-through next year, with Oasis to be delivered by late 2027. Flourish Soleira is expected to complete in 2030.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Joel Robinson

Sherpa takes amenity to the sky as Flourish Soleira captures booming Palm Beach demand

As apartment living continues to evolve across Sydney's growth corridors, the quality and distribution of shared spaces is increasingly shaping how residents experience home. Rather than functioning as add-ons, amenities are being embedded into the daily rhythm of a building, supporting everything from quiet retreat to social interaction, often within a single vertical community.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aeris-melrose-park-nursery-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Aeris</a> in Melrose Park, this approach is resolved through a layered amenity offering that unfolds from ground level through to its upper podium. Developed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a> in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties, the project introduces 468 apartments across two towers and a mid-rise building, positioned at the highest point of the broader masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=359199]

The amenity experience begins at street level, where two courtyards sit within a landscaped setting that connects residents to the wider network of parks and green spaces. These green spaces are not isolated pockets but part of a wider pedestrian network that links Aeris to the surrounding <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a> precinct, including Central Park, future schools, and the Town Centre opening in July 2026. The result is a transition that moves from public to private without abrupt boundaries, allowing residents to pass through shaded, tree-lined environments before reaching the building itself.

Moving upward, the focus shifts to the level five podium, where the primary communal facilities are concentrated. This space brings together a 16-metre swimming pool, outdoor seating areas, and a communal BBQ zone arranged to take advantage of elevated outlooks. Seating is positioned beneath pergolas, creating pockets of shade that extend the usability of the space throughout the day. The pool edge aligns with views toward the wider district, reinforcing the sense of elevation that defines the project’s positioning.

In the adjacent building, this is complemented by quieter, more contemplative spaces, including an outdoor cinema set within the same level. Positioned to operate primarily in the evening, it introduces a different tempo to the shared environment, shifting from daytime activity to after-hours use without requiring separate zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360299]

The podium also accommodates an intimate private resident gym. Located on the lower levels, it gives residents convenient access to fitness facilities without leaving the building.

Above, the elevated podium sky deck extends the amenity offering, providing additional open-air spaces with elevated outlooks across the surrounding landscape. While more restrained in program, this upper level reinforces the project’s vertical progression, from ground-level greenery to elevated outlook, allowing residents to move between distinct spatial conditions within a single address.

This distribution of amenities reflects a deliberate response to how residents use space across the day. Sekisui House Australia Sales and Marketing Director Peter Kalaf points to the role these shared areas play in shaping buyer demand. Aeris has been conceived as more than a collection of apartments, with the podium pool, gym and outdoor cinema forming part of a broader lifestyle offering that extends the home beyond each individual residence.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360300]

What distinguishes Aeris is not the inclusion of these elements individually, but how they are arranged in relation to one another. Active, social, and passive spaces are layered vertically rather than separated, allowing residents to choose between them without leaving the building or moving far from their apartment. This proximity supports both routine use, such as a morning swim or evening workout, and more occasional gatherings, whether around the BBQ area or within the cinema setting.

The amenity design also sits within a broader framework of connectivity across Melrose Park. The Melrose Park Town Centre, anchored by Coles and Dan Murphys, features a mix of retail, dining, health and lifestyle offerings, bringing everyday convenience closer to residents. By the end of the year, more than five hectares of parks and open space, equivalent to around seven football fields of green space on residents' doorstep, will further enhance the precinct, allowing the internal facilities at Aeris to operate as an extension of the wider neighbourhood rather than a substitute for it.

Construction at Aeris continues to gather momentum, with ground floor slabs expected to be completed in late 2026 before the first sections of the buildings begin to rise above ground.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=426]

Elevated amenity anchors daily life at Aeris, Melrose Park

Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

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"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

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The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

Rba Rate Decision

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EXPERT OBSERVER
We now expect the RBA to cut the cash rate today by 25bp and again in April, taking the cash rate to the RBA’s self-imposed floor of 0.25% sooner than our original forecast of April and June cuts.
We also see a risk of a 50bp cut tomorrow in an aggressive response to the unfolding growth shock resulting from the spread of coronavirus.
The RBA should also signal its willingness to consider other measures should stress emerge in the financial system and markets (e.g. measures to support liquidity and ongoing access to credit markets).
While we have long factored in further rate cuts given an underperforming economy, the coronavirus is having a large negative effect on China, which is Australia’s largest trading partner, and also in the local economy, with the travel ban curbing tourism and education exports and spill-overs to local spending and disruptions to supply chains. T
he virus outbreak represents both a supply shock and a demand shock, likely significantly weighing on business and consumer sentiment.
Lower interest rates can help cash flows, lower the exchange rate and potentially boost confidence, but easier fiscal policy will also be required, particularly when both the household sector and business investment are already weak.
Measures to assist firms manage across cash flow impacts (such as delaying tax payments) would likely be helpful. We also expect the US Federal Reserve will cut rates by at least 25 bps this month.
Since the RBA’s previous board meeting the spread of coronavirus has worsened and markets have become increasingly concerned about the impact to the real economy and global growth.
While little official data is available to confirm the magnitude of the impacts on global growth, partial data point to a collapse in activity in February and China’s importance as a consumer and in global supply chains presents a significant risk to global trade and therefore growth in trade-exposed economies.
The virus’s rapid spread to other countries presents further risk with the likelihood of consumers and businesses unable to go about their usual activities in those countries as well. 
The RBA is also likely to react to policy action by other central banks, with the exchange rate also playing an important role in the transmission of easier policy.
To date we have factored in the impact of the virus in the short-term, and see a small fall in GDP in Q1. Beyond that we have pencilled in a small recovery in growth, but for growth to remain below trend for the most part of the next two years (1.3% in 2020 and 2.7% in 2021). Consequently, this sees the unemployment rate drift higher, reaching around 5.5% by end 2020.
Inflation risk remains low and poses no constraint to easier monetary policy. A key risk to our forecasts is that the impact of the coronavirus is both deeper and more protracted, this would necessarily see a downgrade to our outlook for growth, a sharper deterioration in the labour market and the need for unconventional policy as the RBA reaches the zero lower bound.
That said, fiscal policy could also play a role, and in our opinion, should be used to support monetary policy in addressing the current virus outbreak. 
The US Federal Reserve is also likely to cut the fed funds rate this month by at least 25bps. The Fed Chair put out a statement last Friday indicating that the Fed was ready to use its tools to support the economy, foreshadowing the possibility of a rate cut this month.
While a rate cut will not address the direct risks associated with the coronavirus, and related containment efforts and community reaction, the Fed will be keen to ensure that financial market disruption does not add to the damage. A theme of US Fed research has been that, with policy room limited, the best response to a shock is to act quickly and aggressively – so a 50bp cut is possible. 
We will update out rate track further out, alongside our usual update to our growth and labour market forecasts over the next week. Alongside this, we will revisit the magnitude and timing of expected unconventional policy. We will also provide an update to our US and Global forecasts.
ALAN OSTER is the NAB Group chief economist 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

RBA to cut rates in March and April: NAB's Alan Oster

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Experts fear the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will need to take action in the wake of the COVID-19 (coronavirus), according to Finder.
In this month’s Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey™ 20 economists specifically called out the threat the virus poses.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder said, “house prices are still rising in an almost unsubstantiated way, the effect of the smouldering bushfires is still to be felt, and inflation is still sluggish – but it’s the coronavirus above all that is concerning economists right now.
“Specifically, whether the affected countries can keep a lid on the spread of the virus. With COVID-19 now spreading through Europe and the Middle East, that looks unlikely.”
The major fears of the panel centred around education, tourism and property. This follows last week’s news that the Aussie dollar had dipped to 65 US cents, a low-water mark last seen in March 2009.
A budget surplus, as promised by the federal government, now looks unlikely, according to economists.
Nineteen experts (66%) said a surplus was unlikely, with a further two (7%) saying it was very unlikely.
Since the outbreak started to affect Australian markets on Feb 21st, the ASX200 has fallen 10%.
Cooke said COVID-19 fears, along with the uncertainty of the impact of the bushfires, has driven overall economic confidence down amongst the panel to an all-time low of 8% across the five metrics tracked. This is down from a high of 31% in April of 2019.
90% predict a cash rate cut in 2020
Nearly all experts (90%, 35/39) in Finder’s RBA Cash Rate Survey expect an RBA rate cut to happen in 2020, while just 15% (6/39) are predicting a cut on Tuesday.
Cooke said he was surprised to see even 15% of our experts predict a cut this month.
“With the resurgence of the housing market still happening, coronavirus hitting markets hard and general economic figures remaining stagnant, the general consensus is that it’s too turbulent a time to make the call for a rate easing.
“However, all experts, bar four, are predicting that a cut is on the horizon,” Cooke said.
Seven respondents (18%) expect a 0.25% cash rate by the end of the year, and 28 (72%) expect 0.50%.”
April and May are the most likely months for a cut, cited by ten (26%) and nine (23%) experts respectively.
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Coronavirus economic impacts have only just begun: Finder.com.au

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Sportsbet has released its latest odds on a change in the cash rate for at the RBA meeting this month.
They beleive that following the recent turmoil in the global market, in particular the recent drop in the share market, that a cut is likely. 
<a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/novelty-bets/rba-interest-rates/interest-rate-decision-5125930" target="_blank">The online bookmaker</a> is tipping a cut of 0.25% with bets at $1.20.
The interest rate to stay the same is $4.50 and any other change $6.
The chances of an increase is $11.
“It appeared the rate was likely to stay the same, but the odds changed drastically this morning after $44 billion was wiped off the share market,’’ said sportsbet.com.au’s Rich Hummerston.
RateCity.com.au agree adding that if the RBA does cut rates most Australian home loan customers are unlikely to get the full cut.
Research from RateCity.com.au shows after the October 2019 Reserve Bank rate cut, the big four banks only passed on an average of 0.14 per cent to their owner-occupier variable rate customers paying principal and interest.
The average mortgage holder could save $56 a month if their bank passes this rate cut on in full. However, customers that get a 0.15 per cent cut might only save $34, while a 0.10 per cent cut would result in just $23, based on a $400,000 mortgage paying principal and interest.
What the big four banks did after the 2019 RBA rate cuts
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/3/2/Ratecity%20march%203.JPG" alt="">
RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said if the RBA does cut the cash rate, most banks will struggle to pass on the full 0.25 per cent.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/3/2/Ratecity%20march%204.JPG" alt="">
“If the RBA moves, new customer rates are likely to hit another low, however existing customers shouldn’t assume they’ll get the full cut,” she said.
“Last October, the big four banks passed on an average of 0.14 per cent. I wouldn’t expect more than that this time around. In fact, in this low rate environment, some variable rate customers will be lucky to get half."
“The record-low cash rate is problematic for the banks. Many banks’ base savings rates are within 0.25 per cent of zero, making it near impossible to pass on full cuts to depositors."
“If the RBA does fire off another cut, banks will have to weigh up the competing interests of borrowers, depositors and shareholders,” she concluded.
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Sportsbet tipping March RBA interest rate cut

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The RBA board were upbeat in their assessment on the housing market at their February 2020 meeting where they left the cash rate on hold at 0.75 per cent.
They said that prices had "increased very strongly in Sydney and Melbourne in recent months", with hopes that higher housing prices and the increase in housing turnover will support consumption and dwelling investment.
They noted household consumption was lower than expected in the September quarter, despite strong growth in household disposable income.
RBA Governor Philip Lowe said the RBA's forecast was for growth in consumption to increase gradually, sustained by moderate growth in household disposable income and the recovery in the housing market.
"Growth in housing prices had picked up in most capital cities and parts of regional Australia over recent months", Lowe said.
<h1>Mortgages</h1>
Mortgage payments increased in the December quarter.
There was a rise in principal and excess payments, more than offsetting the decline in interest payments.
"Members discussed whether this increase reflected a change in behaviour by households and the potential for it to persist," Lowe said.
"They noted that some households were likely to be repaying their debts faster in response to low growth of their incomes and the earlier fall in housing prices."
Housing loan commitments also continued to rise, which the RBA said was largely driven by owner-occupiers. Growth in credit extended to owner-occupiers had increased to 5.5 per cent on a six months ended annualised basis in December.
<h1>Household consumption</h1>
The RBA suggested household consumption had been lower than expected in the September quarter.
"[This was] despite strong growth in household disposable income, supported by the receipt of tax offset payments and lower interest payments following the recent reductions in the cash rate."
The RBA were only expecting retail sales volumes to grow modestly in the December quarter, however nominal sales had increase strongly in November, namely due to Black Friday sales.
"Measures of consumer sentiment had declined over recent months, but consumers' views on their personal financial situation, which historically have had a stronger link to consumption, had been little changed.
"Members noted that a number of factors had contributed to the slowdown in consumption growth since mid 2018.
"The downturn in the housing market had reduced households' wealth, and the extended period of weak growth in household income had probably lowered expectations of future income growth.
"Members observed that the prolonged period of slow growth in income was expected to continue to weigh on consumption over coming quarters.
"Furthermore, recent data had suggested that households were directing more income to saving and reducing their debt.
<h1>Future rate movements</h1>
Lowe advised the lower interest rates could speed up progress towards the Bank's inflation and unemployment targets.
"In considering this case, the Board took into account that interest rates had already been reduced to a low level and that there are long and variable lags in the transmission of monetary policy", Lowe said.
"The Board also recognised that the incremental benefits of further interest rate reductions needed to be weighed against the risks associated with very low interest rates."
To read the full minutes, <a href="/expert-insights/investing/insights-into-rba-thinking-february-2020-rba-minutes">click here</a>.
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Prices increasing "very strongly" in Sydney and Melbourne: RBA February minutes

Insights into RBA thinking February 2020: RBA Minutes

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EXPERT OBSERVER
As expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to keep the cash rate unchanged at 0.75%.
It is noteworthy that the Board has also not adjusted its growth forecasts for 2020 and 2021 holding them at 2.75% and 3% respectively. The discussion around the two recent shocks to growth – bushfires and coronavirus – emphasises the likely temporary impact of both although the statement does appropriately point out that “it is too early to determine how long lasting the impact [of the coronavirus] will be”.
Further emphasising this tentative approach to coronavirus developments, the description around the world economy has changed: “global growth is expected to be a little stronger this year and next than it was last year.” That compares to the December statement which only referred to: “the outlook for the global economy remains reasonable” – a surprising modest lift in confidence around the world economy given the current recent market developments.
On the other hand the fall in the unemployment rate since the last Board meeting, from 5.3% to 5.1% has been taken on board and the new forecast for the unemployment rate in 2020 appears to be 5.1% down from 5.25% at the December Board meeting. For 2021 the expectation that the unemployment rate will fall slightly below 5% is maintained.
It is of some interest that the statement does not repeat the description “gentle turning point” although the arguments pointing to an improving growth outlook – the low level of interest rates; tax refunds; ongoing spending on infrastructure; a brighter outlook for resources – is now supplemented by a more confident outlook for the residential construction cycle where the statement points to an expected recovery later this year.
It is important that the sentiment in the December statement that “the Australian economy can sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment” has been repeated. This emphasises the desirability, from the Board’s perspective, of further falls in the unemployment rate.
The recent weakness in the Australian dollar is recognised with the AUD being described as “around its lowest level over recent times”. That compares with the previous description of “at the lower end of its range in recent times”. There may be some inconsistency in this observation given that if, as the growth forecasts imply, the economy bounces back from the short term shocks, a recovery in the AUD is almost certainly going to be an outcome.
In the final paragraph, the statement repeats the sentiment of the December statement emphasising: 1) the long and variable lags in the transmission of monetary policy; and 2) the Board is prepared to ease policy further if needed. The third point used in December, that “[the Board] continues to monitor developments, including in the labour market” has been modified to “The Board will continue to monitor developments carefully, including in the labour market”. Arguably this final difference can be interpreted as the Board being more uncertain about future developments and therefore wanting to emphasise its strong duty of care.
Conclusion
We have been surprised that the Board has retained its growth forecast for 2020 at 2.75% (around trend) given the weaker momentum which was apparent from the September quarter national accounts and developing questions around the global economy. It is also somewhat brave, given a range of leading indicators around the labour market, to assume that the recent surprise fall in the unemployment rate over the last two months, from 5.3% to 5.1%, will be sustained. Westpac’s forecast is for the unemployment rate to drift upwards over the first half of 2020.
The uncertainty around the coronavirus poses substantial risks to economic forecasts but certainly the impact of the virus over the course of the first quarter both globally and domestically has to be quite damaging. It seems unlikely that subsequent stimulus policies will be able to fully offset the short term damage done to confidence and activity implying a realistic downward revision to growth forecasts, both globally and domestically.
Westpac continues to expect that a combination of a more moderate growth outlook and an unexpected (by the RBA) deterioration in the labour market will require a further policy response. Our forecast is that the next rate cut will occur in April followed by a further cut in August.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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RBA remain optimistic but cash rate cuts ahead

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EXPERT OBSERVER
At its first board meeting for the year the RBA left the official cash rate at 0.75%. Its last easing was back in October and its been on hold ever since.
This was in line with the market’s and our own expectations.
The RBA appears to have taken heart from the drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% in December and the December quarter inflation results which were in line with its expectations. As a result it has decided to be patient.
What’s surprising though is that it has retained its expectation for economic growth to pick up to around 2.75% this year. Its confidence may reflect the run of better than expected data for retail sales, building approvals and employment over the last month or so.
But the problem is that all of this has related to late last year and since then business and consumer confidence has weakened further not helped by the bushfires with the coronavirus posing a new threat.
While we mostly agree with the RBA that the drag on growth from the bushfires and the coronavirus will be short term and temporary, it is likely to be more significant than the RBA is allowing for. And the risk is that it will linger longer particularly given the threat that both pose to tourism.
As a result we continue to see economic growth being constrained to around 2% this year, well below the RBA’s 2.75%. This in turn is likely to see unemployment drift up a bit, underemployment remains very high and wages growth and underlying inflation remain lower for longer.
All of which will mean that little if any progress towards the RBA’s full employment and inflation targets is likely this year.
As such, we continue to see the RBA cutting rates again in the months ahead ultimately taking the cash rate down to 0.25% by mid-year, unless fiscal policy is eased significantly.
In this regard it is worth noting that the RBA retains an easing bias, with its post meeting Statement noting that “It [the RBA Board] remains prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time.”
SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital
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The cash rate will still fall in the months ahead: Shane Oliver

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<div>
<div class="rss-mr-content">
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 0.75 per cent.
The outlook for the global economy remains reasonable. There have been signs that the slowdown in global growth that started in 2018 is coming to an end. Global growth is expected to be a little stronger this year and next than it was last year and inflation remains low almost everywhere. One continuing source of uncertainty, despite recent progress, is the trade and technology dispute between the US and China, which has affected international trade flows and investment. Another source of uncertainty is the coronavirus, which is having a significant effect on the Chinese economy at present. It is too early to determine how long-lasting the impact will be.
Interest rates are very low around the world and a number of central banks eased monetary policy over the second half of last year. There is an expectation of a little further monetary easing in some economies. Long-term government bond yields are around record lows in many countries, including Australia. Borrowing rates for both businesses and households are at historically low levels. The Australian dollar is around its lowest level over recent times.
The central scenario is for the Australian economy to grow by around 2¾ per cent this year and 3 per cent next year, which would be a step up from the growth rates over the past two years. In the short term, the bushfires and the coronavirus outbreak will temporarily weigh on domestic growth. The household sector has been adjusting to a protracted period of slow wages growth and, last year, to a decline in housing prices, with the result that consumption has been quite weak. Following this period of balance-sheet adjustment, consumption growth is expected to pick up gradually. The overall outlook is also being supported by the low level of interest rates, recent tax refunds, ongoing spending on infrastructure, a brighter outlook for the resources sector and, later this year, an expected recovery in residential construction.
The unemployment rate declined in December to 5.1 per cent. It is expected to remain around this level for some time, before gradually declining to a little below 5 per cent in 2021. Wages growth is subdued and is expected to remain at around its current rate for some time yet. A further gradual lift in wages growth would be a welcome development and is needed for inflation to be sustainably within the 2–3 per cent target range. Taken together, recent outcomes suggest that the Australian economy can sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment.
Inflation remains low and stable. Over 2019, CPI inflation was 1.8 per cent and underlying inflation was a little lower than this. The central scenario is for CPI inflation to be around 2 per cent in the near term and to fluctuate around that rate over the next couple of years. In underlying terms, inflation is expected to increase gradually to 2 per cent over the next couple of years.
There are continuing signs of a pick-up in established housing markets. This is especially so in Sydney and Melbourne, but prices in some other markets have also increased. Mortgage loan commitments have also picked up, although demand for credit by investors remains subdued. Mortgage rates are at record lows and there is strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality. Credit conditions for small and medium-sized businesses remain tight.
The easing of monetary policy last year is supporting employment and income growth in Australia and a return of inflation to the medium-term target range. The lower cash rate has put downward pressure on the exchange rate, which is supporting activity across a range of industries. Lower interest rates have assisted with the process of household balance sheet adjustment. They have also boosted asset prices, which in time should lead to increased spending, including on residential construction. Progress is expected towards the inflation target and towards full employment, but that progress is expected to remain gradual.
With interest rates having already been reduced to a very low level and recognising the long and variable lags in the transmission of monetary policy, the Board decided to hold the cash rate steady at this meeting. Due to both global and domestic factors, it is reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required in Australia to reach full employment and achieve the inflation target. The Board will continue to monitor developments carefully, including in the labour market. It remains prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time.
</div>
</div>
<div class="box-enquiries">To read the original meeting statement, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2020/mr-20-01" target="_blank">click here</a>.</div>
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Housing price growth extends beyond Sydney and Melbourne: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's February 2020 meeting statement

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The RBA kept the official cash rate at a record low 0.75 per cent at its February meeting, the first of 2020. 
Tim Lawless, CoreLogic's head of research, said the result wasn't a surprise given the ongoing uncertainty brought about by the extent of the bush fires and the unfolding implications of the Corona virus outbreak.
"The RBA may need to keep some rate cutting ammunition up their sleeve should these scenarios play out more severely than expected.", Lawless said.
"To date, lower interest rates haven’t flowed through to a material improvement in economic conditions, but housing markets have well and truly responded, with national housing values rising 6.7% since the first rate cut in June through to the end of January. 
Lawless said that, importantly, we may be seeing some early signs that strength in housing markets is transferring through to other sectors.
"Dwelling approvals recorded their first annual rise since mid-2018 and the value of new mortgage commitments up 5.9% over the year to November, driven by a 10% increase in owner-occupier commitments. 
"Although rates remained on hold today, we are expecting the RBA to cut the cash rate later in 2020. 
"Further rate cuts could fuel home buyer demand, although we don’t expect future cuts to the cash rate to be passed on in full to mortgage rates.
 Finder's RBA survey suggests the retail slowdown will continue as the cash rate holds.
Some 79 per cent of survey respondents said we will see further store closures through 2020, following the likes of retailers Big W, Bose, Curris Planet and EB Games all closing stores.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said the outlook is grim.
“While FMCG retailers such as Woolies and Coles will generally continue to operate successfully, clothing and other retailers must adapt or perish", Cooke said.
“In an environment where people are spending less and ordering more online – if you don’t have a seat at the table, you might be on the menu.
 Mozo director Kirsty Lamont says the likelihood of a cut in the next few months is very high.
“The full economic impact of the bushfire crisis and coronavirus is still unknown and the RBA will need to account for these factors to an already stagnant economy", Lamont said, adding that recent improvements in employment and inflation data gave the Reserve Bank enough breathing room to hold rates.
 
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RBA hold rates at first meeting of 2020

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Economists are highly divided on whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) made the right number of cuts to the cash rate last year, according to the latest Finder survey.
In this month’s Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey, when asked if the RBA was right to make 3 cuts in 2019, only half of the respondents to this question said it made the right call (50%,13/26).
Of the other half of experts who disagreed with the Reserve Bank's decisions, most (42%, 11/26) said the RBA should have cut less.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said the RBA’s decisions will never please everybody.
“On the one hand, some experts say the cutting was 'overzealous' and is seeing house prices soar while most economic metrics have been stagnant."
“Others think the RBA hasn’t done enough to repair the economy in light of lagging employment and inflation figures."
“One thing is clear: three cuts have reignited the housing market and pumped up property prices across the country."
“With more cuts on the horizon, it remains to be seen whether cheaper credit and lower rates will be an elixir or a poison pill," he said."
RBA cash rate expected to hold
Nearly 9 in 10 experts and economists predict the RBA will hold the cash rate in February (87%, 34/39) with just 13% expecting a cut.
The experts predicting a cut cited the bushfires, weak wage growth, low inflation and high unemployment as the main issues necessitating an easing.
Besa Deda of St.George Economics said; “In the absence of wage pressures, inflation remains well below target. More stimulus is required to return growth to trend.”
Cooke noted the forecast for a rate cut in February dropped from 66% before the December meeting to just 13% this month.
Nearly 4 out of 5 who made a forward prediction (not including February) forecast a cash rate drop by May 2020 (79%, 23/29).
A quarter of experts predict a cut in March (24%, 7/29), while nearly a third predict a cut in April (31%, 9/29). Another quarter predict a cut in May (24%, 7/29).
Only 2 of the 39 experts (5%) on the panel thought the eventual move, whenever it happens, would be a rise.
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