Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

&nbsp;

Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.

The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.

The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.

The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]

Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.

Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.

Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]

Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.

“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.

“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”

“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.” 
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]

The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.

Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.

The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.

The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]

Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.

“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.

“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”

A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.

That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.

The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]

According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.

Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.

The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.

The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.

That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.

The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]

The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.

“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.

“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”

The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]

Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.

The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.

Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]

Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.

Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.

“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.

He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.

“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.

“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.

Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.

Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.

Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.

The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]

Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more international and domestic flights.

Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.

Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.

The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.

The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" />

According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”

The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.

The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.

Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.

“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.

The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.

The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" />

The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.

“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.

According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.

“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.

“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”

The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.

Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.

&nbsp;

The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" />

St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.

Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.

The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.

More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.

First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

Rba Rate Decision

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EXPERT OBSERVER
As discussed in our last weekly Westpac now expects the Reserve Bank to delay its next cut in the cash rate to April with the final cut to 0.25% occurring in August. Prior to the release of the surprisingly strong December employment report we had expected the cuts to be timed for February and June.
The inflation report, which printed on January 29, confirmed that inflation remains 'stuck' well below the Board’s 2–3% target band with the trimmed mean (the key measure of underlying inflation used by the RBA) printing 0.43% for an annual rate of 1.6%. The annual rate of increase of the trimmed mean has been within a 1.5%–1.8% range for the past four years. The RBA’s latest forecasts envisage the annual rate of the trimmed mean holding at 1.8% in 2020 and 1.9% in 2021. When the Bank releases its revised forecasts on February 7 we expect it will reaffirm that inflation outlook.
These are not the forecasts of a central bank (with a 2–3% inflation target range) that expects it has come to the end of its easing cycle.
Such a decision would only be appropriate if the Bank assessed that further easing in policy would be ineffectual or counter productive.
However, in its December minutes, the Board made the case for the effectiveness of monetary policy.
"Members discussed the transmission to the economy of the interest rate reductions since the middle of the year. They noted in particular that the available evidence suggested that more stimulatory monetary policy had been working through the usual channels of lower bond yields, a depreciation of the exchange rate and lower interest rates on mortgages. There had also been an effect on housing prices, increased housing turnover in the established market and some early signs of a stabilisation in housing construction activity ...
... While members recognised the negative confidence effects for some parts of the community arising from lower interest rates, they judged that the impact of these effects was unlikely to outweigh the stimulus to the economy from lower interest rates".
It is also important not to confuse monetary and fiscal policy. There has been some speculation that fiscal policy is the only answer. We accept that a more stimulatory fiscal policy is necessary and have strongly advocated the bringing forward of the Stage 2 personal tax cuts in two tranches beginning in July 2020 and followed by the second tranche in July 2021.
Based on the most recent fiscal update – the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, released December 16 – that policy would risk pushing the 2020/21 and 2021/22 fiscal positions back into modest deficits. We believe that such a 'price' is worth paying if we are to provide a sizeable boost to household incomes and an associated lift in business expectations for stronger demand growth.
Now, of course, it is necessary to superimpose on this discussion the recent exogenous shocks of the bushfires and coronavirus.
Westpac has adjusted its GDP forecasts for the bushfire effect, lowering GDP growth in both the December and March quarters by 0.1%, reflecting the impact on tourism; agriculture; and regional retail of the bushfire crisis.
The other likely effect was always going to be the overriding impact on consumer confidence. The Westpac-MI Index of Consumer Sentiment fell by 1.8% in January to 93.4 – a fairly modest fall compared to the 5.8% fall during the Queensland floods of 2011. However the survey was taken during the first week of rain in January, and the starting point for the Index was much lower than in 2011 (a reading of 111 for Sentiment).
The –0.2% growth impact is seen to be on the conservative side with estimates ranging from –0.1% to –0.5%.
We have also pencilled in a lift in demand of 0.1% of GDP later in 2020 to reflect the rebuild that will follow.
The second risk to the growth outlook is the coronavirus outbreak.
This virus is likely to largely affect Australia through its impact on services exports. This sector has been an important source of growth for the Australian economy. In a year (to the September quarter 2019) where the Australian economy grew by 'only' 2.0%, net service exports contributed 0.4ppts.
Services exports are about $100bn a year. This includes $64bn, 3.2% of GDP, in travel and education – of which Chinese students and tourists represent 27% of those exports, or 0.85% of GDP.
Consequently the direct effect of a complete shutdown of Chinese tourism and student travel for a year would reduce GDP by almost 1ppt with significant additional multiplier effects. However such an outcome is extreme – well beyond the experience during the SARS outbreak of 2003 – and we can only await a clearer picture of developments over the next few months.
Issues of importance in estimating the impact on Australia’s services exports include: the resilience of the virus; the impact on student travel and the impact on tourism.
Westpac has not imputed this effect in its current growth forecasts given the high degree of uncertainty.
The Reserve Bank will also be pondering the impact of the bushfires and coronavirus on its growth forecasts.
We will receive an update on the Bank’s growth forecasts on February 7, while the Governor is giving a speech "The Year Ahead" on February 5.
We expect that the RBA will lower its 2020 growth forecast from 2.8% to 2.6% (rounded down to 2.5% in the main forecast table in the 'Economic Outlook' section). That compares with Westpac’s forecast of 2.1% (no coronavirus effect included) and will be justified by the weaker than expected momentum in 2019 (September quarter GDP was not available for the November forecast) plus some allowance for the bushfires/coronavirus.
However these latter effects will be considered transitory and the 'bold' forecast of 3.1% growth in 2021 will likely be retained.
Markets should not feel that a lowering of the near-term growth forecast to below trend growth should automatically require a rate cut. The assessment of monetary policy involving 'long and variable lags' and an above-trend growth forecast in 2021 is sufficient to justify a 'pause' until the impact of exogenous shocks becomes clear and the sustainability of the recent downtrend in the unemployment rate can be tested.
Such an approach is entirely consistent with Westpac’s expectation that the next rate cut will be in April following the December quarter national accounts and the next 'snapshot' of Australia’s growth momentum.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

RBA to hold until April and cut 2020 economic growth forecast: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The RBA will stay on hold in February, using the recent improvement in the unemployment rate to buy time – suggesting the bank will continue to react to the accumulation of evidence very gradually.
It is important to note that the framework for monetary policy still suggests that rates should be lower.
Inflationary pressure remains weak and recent headwinds – particularly for consumption and business investment - are likely to persist. Notwithstanding the recent dip in the unemployment rate, a large degree of spare capacity remains in the labour market with little progress having been made over the last year in reducing unemployment.
Nonetheless, unless the RBA wishes to move against market expectations, the February cut appears off the table.
Consequently, we have moved the timing of the next cut to April followed by a second cut around mid-year. Beyond that the risk of a move to ‘unconventional’ policy in H2 2020 will depend critically on whether the labour market deteriorates more significantly than we forecast.
By April, the RBA will have confirmation of another quarter of weak consumer spending with further evidence that interest rate and tax cuts to date have not done enough to boost spending.
We will review our GDP forecasts over the next week or so as more information comes in on the indirect effects of the bushfires and coronavirus on activity and ultimately the labour market. 
The stronger than expected December labour market data has provided time for the RBA to further assess the data flow. While the RBA staying on hold in February is expected by the market, we still think the RBA will regret not moving earlier this year – as was also the case in 2019 – as consumer spending trends remain very soft. The December NAB survey also suggests that private sector economic momentum, while it didn’t collapse in late 2019, remains stalled. 
Ultimately the RBA’s policy path will depend on where the economy and the labour market goes from here. We remain of the view that the economy – and consumer spending in particular - will continue to underperform and probably more than the RBA expects – albeit new RBA forecasts will be published later this week and will likely contain a softer near-term growth outlook. 
An early estimate of the short-term bushfire impact could well see average GDP growth in 2020 slow to around 1.5% or lower, with unemployment starting to rise to around 5.5% by H2 2020. While we will be assessing the indirect disruption effects of the fires over coming weeks it seems likely that Q1 GDP will be negative. We are quite worried that the January NAB Survey will further highlight that the indirect effects were larger than most expect.
Internal data on income growth suggests that wages growth may have weakened in late 2019. Indeed, our analysis suggests household cash flows weakened further in late 2019. It is too early to assess the impact of the Coronavirus but clearly it will also not be a positive. Next week we will formally review our GDP forecasts ahead of the next NAB business survey release. 
The bushfire rebuild will add somewhat to growth in the out years but we do not see that as significant in 2020 – rather it is likely to be a 2021 issue. Also, the fiscal outlay on the fires (at $2billion over two years) is not likely to be a game changer in terms of the near term macroeconomic outlook.
We still see scope for more support from a material fiscal package. That does not appear to be on the government’s agenda. Similarly, we think there is a need for renewed focus on structural policy to lift productivity growth over the medium term, which would in turn provide support for wage growth.
Whether the RBA moves to unconventional policy will very much depend on whether the economy strengthens in H2 2020 and unemployment continues its recent gains. We fear that will not be the case. Beyond that, the shape of the 2020/21 Federal Budget will be important.
While we can understand the RBA’s position of taking more time to assess the outlook, that in our view is only sustainable for a short period. By April it will be clear that private sector growth continues to flat line, consumer spending remains soft and potentially that recent unemployment gains are not sustained. That combination means that further stimulus will be needed.
ALAN OSTER is NAB Group's Chief Economist
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

NAB push back RBA rate cut prediction: Alan Oster

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Future Fund chairman and former Treasurer Peter Costello has urged the Reserve Bank to refrain from cutting official interest rates to a new record low out of fear it could reignite a housing price bubble in Sydney and Melbourne following a “welcome correction” in home values over the past year.
As the RBA board prepares to meet next week for the first time since ­December, Mr Costello told The Australian, the central bank had to be “very careful” it did not risk further pumping up house prices by cutting official interest rates, which he said were failing to stimulate the economy."
He made the comments ahead of the latest Consumer Price Index – the main measure of inflation in Australia – which rose by 0.7 per cent in the December quarter, slightly above expectations. In seasonally adjusted terms the CPI rose by 0.6 per cent. The annual rate of headline inflation lifted from 1.7 per cent to 1.8 per cent. The Aussie dollar rose slightly against the greenback in response.
His comments echoed what Mr Costello said late last year, that interest rate cuts would have a limited impact on the economy.
"What will a rate cut do for the economy? In my view, not much," he said.
“We’ve already got a cash rate of 1 per cent, suppose it goes to 0.75 per cent, suppose it goes to 0.5 per cent. Áll these people who are holding off spending or borrowing or investing are going to say ‘I wouldn’t have done it at 1 per cent, but I’m going out there now that it’s 0.75 per cent?’ I don’t think that’s going to happen,” Mr Costello emphasized.
Peter Costello who was Treasurer for nearly 12 years during the Howard government, said he thought a "very big part" of the RBA's thinking was the prospect that if other countries cut interest rates, Australia would lose the stimulatory impact of having a lower exchange rate.
He described RBA governor Philip Lowe’s speech earlier this week, in which he said the RBA did not want Australia’s exchange rate to go up, as “very interesting”.
Image ABC
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Peter Costello says 2020 rate cuts won't do much

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Westpac now expects that the Reserve Bank will delay its next cut in the cash rate to April with the final cut to 0.25% occurring in August.
Prior to the release of the surprisingly strong December Employment Report we had expected the cuts to be timed for February and June.
Our analysis of the December Board Minutes highlighted that, with the Board committing to review its assessment of the economy in February, it seemed likely that the Board would have been prepared to cut the cash rate by 0.25% at that meeting.
However we did note that, “The flow of economic data over the next six weeks will be critical to that decision, particularly the labour market; retail sales and confidence”. (Economic Bulletin, December 17).
Although the November retail sales report printed a strong 0.9% we were comfortable to attribute much of that out performance to the “Black Friday” effect expecting a sizeable pull back in retail sales in December, (to be released on 6th of February).
The Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 1.8% in January to 93.4 – consistent with a down beat consumer.
However, the Employment Report was always going to be the most important data release.
Recall that in the December minutes the Board concluded that, "The Board would continue to monitor developments, including in the labour market, and was prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time”.
The November report showed a tick down in the unemployment rate from 5.3% to 5.2% – Westpac expected that the December Report would see a reversion back to 5.3% but the actual report printed a further fall in the unemployment rate to 5.1%.
This fall in the unemployment rate is not unprecedented. Over the last five years there have been six occasions when the unemployment rate has fallen in back to back months by a total of 0.2% or more.
Read full report <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2020/January/er20200124BullDelayRBACashRate.pdf" target="_blank" data-auth="NotApplicable">'RBA delay cash rate' (PDF 74kb)</a>
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist for Westpac
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Westpac expects RBA and USA to delay rate cuts: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
As expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 0.75%.
The key themes around the policy outlook which have been consistently promoted in these RBA statements in recent months have been repeated.
Firstly, the Board “continues to monitor developments, including in the labour market”, and secondly, “the Board is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed”.
However, an additional theme appears in today’s Decision Statement, “long and variable lags in the transmission of monetary policy”. This is not a new observation, given that it has appeared in Board minutes in the past but being elevated to the more succinct Decision Statement gives it some enhanced prominence.
The recent surge in established house prices, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, has attracted further interest. The Governor now notes that the lower cash rate “has also boosted asset prices, which in time should lead to increased spending, including on residential construction”.
The relevance of house prices per se, and their impact on the real economy, will be a major source of policy discussion in the first half of 2020. The only other significant change to the Decision Statement in November is a more balanced outlook for the global economy – “while the risks are still tilted to the downside, some of these risks have lessened recently”.
Other consistent themes are: “economy appears to have reached a gentle turning point”, “the main domestic uncertainty continues to be the outlook for consumption”, and “the unemployment rate… is expected to remain around this level [5¼ per cent] for some time”.
However, in a direct reference to the need for further policy stimulus, the theme that “the Australian economy can sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment” stands out.
Finally, in reference to the turnaround in established housing markets, the Decision Statement still notes that “new dwelling activity is still declining and growth in housing credit remains low”.
Conclusion
This Decision Statement is a little more positive than we have seen in the past, mainly through the linking of rising house prices to a potential lift in spending and residential construction. It also continues to emphasise that the Board is prepared to be patient, is monitoring developments, that policy has long and variable lags, and is prepared to ease  "if necessary”.
If we were expecting a policy move over the next month, then this Decision Statement would raise some questions. However, our forecast that there will be a cut at the February meeting looks much safer. Over the course of the next few months, there will be a clear test of the RBA’s view that the unemployment rate will hold steady. There will also be further evidence around the strength of the consumer with the national accounts to be released tomorrow as well as two more retail sales reports.
The response of the Australian dollar to any confidence that the RBA will be on hold in February will also be important. We assess that one of the factors behind the consistently low AUD is the expectation that the RBA will continue down its easing path.
Overall, despite this emphasis on “monitoring” and the slightly more upbeat discussion on the Australian economy, we still feel confident that the rate cut in February will be delivered.
Furthermore, we argue that the growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation developments through 2020 will require further attention from the RBA culminating in a final rate cut to 0.25% in June. From that point, with further easing still required, the RBA will need to move to a form of Quantitative Easing, based on the regular monthly purchase of around AUD 2-3 billion of government securities.
BILL EVANS is Chief Economist for Westpac. 
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RBA holds the cash rate steady; emphasises scope to ease further: Bill Evans

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The Reserve Bank of Australia have kept the official cash rate at 0.75 per cent at its December meeting today.
The outlook for the global economy remains reasonable. While the risks are still tilted to the downside, some of these risks have lessened recently. The US–China trade and technology disputes continue to affect international trade flows and investment as businesses scale back spending plans because of the uncertainty. At the same time, in most advanced economies unemployment rates are low and wages growth has picked up, although inflation remains low. In China, the authorities have taken steps to support the economy while continuing to address risks in the financial system.
Interest rates are very low around the world and a number of central banks have eased monetary policy over recent months in response to the downside risks and subdued inflation. Expectations of further monetary easing have generally been scaled back. Financial market sentiment has continued to improve and long-term government bond yields are around record lows in many countries, including Australia. Borrowing rates for both businesses and households are at historically low levels. The Australian dollar is at the lower end of its range over recent times.
After a soft patch in the second half of last year, the Australian economy appears to have reached a gentle turning point. The central scenario is for growth to pick up gradually to around 3 per cent in 2021. The low level of interest rates, recent tax cuts, ongoing spending on infrastructure, the upswing in housing prices and a brighter outlook for the resources sector should all support growth. The main domestic uncertainty continues to be the outlook for consumption, with the sustained period of only modest increases in household disposable income continuing to weigh on consumer spending. Other sources of uncertainty include the effects of the drought and the evolution of the housing construction cycle.
The unemployment rate has been steady at around 5¼ per cent over recent months. It is expected to remain around this level for some time, before gradually declining to a little below 5 per cent in 2021. Wages growth is subdued and is expected to remain at around its current rate for some time yet. A further gradual lift in wages growth would be a welcome development and is needed for inflation to be sustainably within the 2–3 per cent target range. Taken together, recent outcomes suggest that the Australian economy can sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment.
Inflation is expected to pick up, but to do so only gradually. In both headline and underlying terms, inflation is expected to be close to 2 per cent in 2020 and 2021.
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There are further signs of a turnaround in established housing markets. This is especially so in Sydney and Melbourne, but prices in some other markets have also increased recently. In contrast, new dwelling activity is still declining and growth in housing credit remains low. Demand for credit by investors is subdued and credit conditions, especially for small and medium-sized businesses, remain tight. Mortgage rates are at record lows and there is strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality.
The easing of monetary policy this year is supporting employment and income growth in Australia and a return of inflation to the medium-term target range. The lower cash rate has put downward pressure on the exchange rate, which is supporting activity across a range of industries. It has also boosted asset prices, which in time should lead to increased spending, including on residential construction. Lower mortgage rates are also boosting aggregate household disposable income, which, in time, will boost household spending.
Given these effects of lower interest rates and the long and variable lags in the transmission of monetary policy, the Board decided to hold the cash rate steady at this meeting while it continues to monitor developments, including in the labour market. The Board also agreed that due to both global and domestic factors, it was reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required in Australia to reach full employment and achieve the inflation target. The Board is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time.
The statement was released by <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2019/mr-19-33" target="_blank">the RBA</a>.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Further signs of property market market turnaround: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's December meeting statement

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The Reserve Bank of Australia have kept the official cash rate at a record low 0.75 per cent at its December meeting today.
"There are further signs of a turnaround in established housing markets," Lowe said.
"This is especially so in Sydney and Melbourne, but prices in some other markets have also increased recently.
The RBA are waiting to see if their three cuts in 2019 will stimulate the local economy enough that a further cut isn't required.
NAB however are forecasting disappointing GDP growth of 0.3 per cent in Q3, slowing marginally from the growth rates seen in the last two quarters and a continuation of the weakness seen over the past year.
"NAB's expectation is that the RBA will ease rates by a further 25bp in February, with the risk that it will ease a further 0.25 per cent an announce unconventional policy should a material fiscal stimulus fail to materialise,", NAB advise. 
Two-thirds of Finder RBA's Cash Rate Survey, a survey of economists and experts, also predict a cut to 0.5 per cent in February.
Julie Toth of the Australian Industry Group said in the absence of tax reform, cuts are one of the only moves the RBA can make.
"Australia's economy is failing to accelerate (again) in 2019-20", Toth said.
“Non-mining business investment remains especially weak, but it is sorely needed to boost our productivity growth and real incomes for all.
“In the absence of meaningful tax reform and micro-economic reform, another rate cut probably won't help much, but it is the only response that the RBA can offer," Toth added.
Westpac's Bill Evans says the RBA <a href="/expert-insights/finance/rba-will-cut-cash-rate-to-0-25-by-june-2020-bill-evans">will cut rates to 0.25 per cent</a> by June 2020.
 
 
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RBA holds rates at December meeting

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Experts predict the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will take unconventional measures to stimulate the economy in 2020, according to the latest survey data from Finder.
In their most recent <a href="https://www.finder.com.au/rba-cash-rate" target="_blank">Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey™</a> – 33 experts and economists weighed in on future cash rate moves and economic indicators, including wage growth and housing affordability.
While economists almost universally expected no cut in December, many experts are forecasting a cut in February. This may be the last for a significant period, with three-quarters (73%) of economists saying a 0% cash rate is unlikely.
RBA Governor Phillip Lowe recently insisted that the federal bank had ‘no appetite’ for quantitative easing (QE), a process where the central bank creates new cash to decrease – or ease – the cost of borrowing.
But nearly half (46%) of experts said it was likely we’d see QE in 2020.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said “The RBA said they may look to alternative stimulus methods once the rate hits 0.25%."
“We’re only two cuts away from that, and the three cuts of 2019 have failed to stimulate anything beyond the housing market,” Cooke said.
Click <a href="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/02a-7JJna6IjqWtAijhZ6rm8W27bou3occx5_PFIeSABS_nb_aiZDZrQrSHUO-dztGbQ2TqccNgDB2tW8J3bBb67RMGMAEcBcM0Kcv6rE9az54GkaxiuiPqsohHaKb_fW7NyRYjm" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/02a-7JJna6IjqWtAijhZ6rm8W27bou3occx5_PFIeSABS_nb_aiZDZrQrSHUO-dztGbQ2TqccNgDB2tW8J3bBb67RMGMAEcBcM0Kcv6rE9az54GkaxiuiPqsohHaKb_fW7NyRYjm">
On the bright side, a recession looks increasingly unlikely in 2020, with 89% of experts not expecting an economic decline and 88% thinking it unlikely that house prices will fall.
Three quarters of experts (76%) don’t foresee a significant rise in mortgage defaults, 64% think a US-China trade deal is likely and 52% say it is likely that house prices will fully recover.
Cooke said the positive outlook on China is significant because the fate of the US-China trade deal was cited as economists’ number one economic concern in the August survey this year.
While nearly all experts and economists predict a hold in December (97%, 32/33), two-thirds (66%, 22/33) expect the cash rate to drop to 0.50% in February 2020. This figure reflects the 64% of experts who predicted February would be a cut in last month’s survey. 
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Nearly half of surveyed experts forecast quantitative easing in 2020: Finder

Brisbane housing market conditions firm as Sydney and Melbourne continue to strengthen: RBA November minutes

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EXPERT OBSERVER
As expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 0.75% at its November Board meeting.
While this result was what was widely expected today, markets had given a 50% probability of a rate cut following the move in October. Westpac was never convinced of that prospect and had pointed to the fact that central banks usually make very strong cases for a decision and markets can over interpret that sentiment. We were also concerned that very low interest rates were likely to adversely affect sentiment, as we saw in the response to the June and July rate cuts where the Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 4.1%. Readers will be aware that following the October rate cut, the index fell by 5.5%.
For us, the most important aspect of the Governor’s November Decision Statement was the signalling around prospects for a cut in December. It has always been our view that policy would be unchanged in November and December, but when market pricing reached 50% for November, December pricing was around 90%.
There are two key signals to suggest that the Board will take a break in December as well. Firstly, the term “the Board will continue to monitor developments” was included in the final paragraph, with the term “monitor” implying no urgency to move. Secondly, the final paragraph also notes “the easing of monetary policy since June”. It is our experience that when central banks refer back to previous decisions, it is also unlikely that they plan to move in the near future.
However, we are mindful that the Board does not want the market to believe that it has reached the end of the easing cycle. That would put unwelcome upward pressure on the AUD. Consequently, there remains a very clear easing bias: “the Board… is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed”.
As indicated in our preview to today’s RBA decision, we pointed out that it was unlikely that the RBA would change its forecast for 2020. The Statement refers to growth in 2019 at 2¼ per cent and gradually picking up to 3 per cent in 2021. That indicates that the current growth forecast of 2.8% in 2020, which was adopted in August, is likely to be retained in Friday’s Statement on Monetary Policy.
The growth forecast for 2019 has been lowered from 2½ per cent to 2¼ per cent. When the 2½ per cent forecast was made, the RBA was unaware of the “softish” 0.5% GDP growth for the June quarter. With the first half of 2019 totalling 1 per cent, the 2¼ per cent forecast implies two quarters of around 0.6% growth in the second half of 2019. Westpac expects 0.5% in the September quarter.
Other key themes remain unchanged from the October statement: global economy risks are tilted to the downside; the main domestic uncertainty continues to be the outlook for consumption; the unemployment rate is expected to remain around 5 ¼ per cent for some time, before gradually declining to a little below 5% in 2021; wages growth is expected to remain around the current rate for some time; and there are further signs of a turnaround in established housing markets, especially in Sydney and Melbourne.
Some additional insights are: other sources of uncertainty include the drought and the housing construction cycle; and the recent inflation data were broadly as expected.
Conclusion
There is nothing in this Statement that prompts us to revise our current forecast that rates will be on hold in December with the next and final rate cut occurring in February next year.
Following that move, the state of the economy will be such that further stimulus will still be required, without which an unwelcome lift in the Australian Dollar would pose a significant headwind for the RBA’s current forecast of return to trend growth in 2020. Under those circumstances, it seems reasonable that the RBA might move towards some unconventional measures to boost demand and retain downward pressure on the Australian Dollar
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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