Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

<main data-perf-region="main">
Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
</main>

Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Rba Rate Decision

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SEPTEMBER RBA MINUTES
Members commenced their discussion of the global economy by noting that business conditions in the manufacturing sectors in many economies had remained subdued. They discussed the escalation of the US–China trade and technology disputes, which had intensified the downside risks to the global outlook. By contrast, conditions in more domestically focused sectors had generally continued to be resilient, supported by ongoing strength in labour markets. Employment growth had remained robust in the major advanced economies, although it had eased a little in some economies in recent months, and unemployment rates had remained low. Although wages growth had picked up, year-ended inflation had remained below target in the major advanced economies. Members noted that inflation in the United States had increased in recent months.
The main development over the previous month had been the escalation of the US–China trade and technology disputes. The United States had announced higher tariffs on most imports from China, including consumer goods that had not previously been subject to the tariff increases, to take effect over the remainder of 2019. Members noted that recent and prospective increases in tariffs could increase consumer price inflation in the United States by between ¼ and ½ percentage point over the following few years, based on a range of published estimates. In response to the US announcements, China had suspended purchases of US agricultural products and had announced plans to increase tariffs on around one-half of the value of US imports. In value terms, US exports to China had contracted by around 20 per cent over the year to June, while US imports from China had been around 3 per cent lower. Members also noted that some other east Asian economies were benefiting from the diversion of US imports away from China.
More generally, global trade volumes had fallen over the previous year, reflecting both the escalation of trade tensions and slower growth in Chinese domestic demand. Weak external demand had been reflected in slowing growth in global industrial production and below-average conditions in the global manufacturing sector. Recent indicators suggested trade-related activity would remain weak for some time.
Members noted that weak external demand and heightened geopolitical uncertainty had contributed to lower growth in business investment in many economies, including the United States, the euro area and the United Kingdom. These economies had also recorded declines in investment intentions. By contrast, in the United States the household sector had been resilient, but overall GDP growth had slowed in the June quarter. GDP growth had also slowed in most euro area countries in the June quarter; Germany had recorded a small contraction in GDP. By contrast, GDP growth in Japan had been moderate, supported by consumption brought forward ahead of a scheduled increase in the consumption tax in October, as well as ongoing growth in investment, bolstered by the need to address labour shortages.
Recent data suggested that growth in China had eased further. Most indicators of economic activity had slowed in July, including in components being supported by recent policy measures, such as infrastructure investment. The level of steel production had declined slightly. Retail sales growth had resumed its downward trend, after having received a boost from strong growth in car sales in recent months ahead of tighter emission standards coming into effect. In India, recent indicators had also pointed to output growth slowing.
Weak global trade had continued to weigh on growth in east Asia. Trade within the region and with China had contracted further in June. Growth in industrial production and survey measures of manufacturing conditions had remained weak. Political unrest had weighed on economic conditions for businesses and households in Hong Kong, while an ongoing dispute with Japan had disrupted South Korean production of electronics. However, domestic demand elsewhere in the region had held up, supported by government policies in some cases.
Iron ore prices had declined since the previous meeting, but were around 40 per cent higher than a year earlier. Market reports had attributed these declines to a number of factors, including concerns about the outlook for steel demand in China following the escalation of the disputes between the United States and China in early August, lower steel prices and an easing in supply concerns. The prices of coal and rural commodities had been somewhat lower over the prior month, while oil and base metals prices had been little changed, except where there had been disruptions to the supply of specific metals.
Domestic Economic Conditions
The main information on the domestic economy received since the previous meeting had been on the labour market as well as partial indicators of output growth in the June quarter in the lead-up to the publication of the national accounts. Quarterly GDP growth was expected to be around ½ per cent, supported by a strong recovery in resource exports from earlier supply disruptions.
The ABS capital expenditure (Capex) survey suggested that mining investment had grown in the June quarter, driven by an increase in machinery &amp; equipment investment. The Capex survey suggested there had also been an increase in machinery &amp; equipment investment by the non-mining sector in the June quarter, while non-residential construction was expected to have declined. Investment intentions for 2019/20 had been positive for the mining sector, but had been modestly lower for the non-mining sector. Members noted that the outlook for the construction sector was particularly weak.
Members recognised that, overall, Australian businesses had not appeared to have been affected by the weak trade environment to the same extent as businesses in other advanced economies. This was partly because Australia's exports are more exposed to Chinese domestic demand and less integrated in global supply chains.
Consumption growth was expected to have remained low in the June quarter. Retail sales volumes had been weak in the June quarter and the value of retail sales had fallen in July. The low- and middle-income tax offset (LMITO) was expected to boost household income, and thus support consumption growth, in coming quarters. However, the Bank's liaison with retailers suggested that this had yet to lift spending noticeably. Members noted that even if the LMITO was used to pay off debts, this would still bring forward the point at which households could increase their spending.
Established housing market conditions had steadied in recent months. Reported housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne had risen noticeably in August and auction clearance rates had increased further, although volumes had remained low. Housing market conditions had been subdued elsewhere, although there were signs of housing prices stabilising in Brisbane. Housing turnover had remained low. Consequently, spending on home furnishings and other housing-related items was not expected to contribute to consumption growth in the near term. Indicators suggested that dwelling investment had declined further in the June quarter and indicators of earlier stages of residential building activity had remained weak; building approvals had declined further in June and other measures of early-stage activity and buyer interest had remained at low levels.
Employment growth had remained strong in July, but the unemployment rate had remained at 5.2 per cent. Employment growth over preceding months had been broadly based across states and had predominantly been in full-time work. Strong employment growth had been accompanied by a further increase in the participation rate, which had recorded another all-time high. Members noted that the increase in participation had been particularly notable for New South Wales. Forward-looking indicators had continued to suggest that employment growth would moderate over the following six months. Information from liaison suggested employment intentions had remained weak in the residential construction sector but positive among services firms.
Wages growth had remained low and the upward trend in wages growth appeared to have stalled. The wage price index had increased by 2.3 per cent over the year to the June quarter. Private sector wages growth had been unchanged in the quarter, while public sector wages growth had been a little higher. Most of this increase had been the result of a one-off adjustment to equalise the wages of nurses and midwives in Victoria with those in New South Wales.
Financial Markets
Members commenced their discussion of financial markets by noting that government bond yields had declined and were at record lows in many countries, including Australia. Volatility and risk premiums in global financial markets had increased in August, following the escalation of the disputes between the United States and China and disappointing economic data releases in Germany and China. The persistent downside risks to the global economy, combined with subdued inflation, had led a number of central banks to reduce interest rates in recent months and further monetary easing was widely expected.
In the United States, market pricing implied that the federal funds rate was expected to decline by around 100 basis points over the following year. Market participants also expected the European Central Bank to provide additional monetary stimulus in the near term, including renewed asset purchases and a reduction in its policy rate further into negative territory. Central banks in a number of other advanced economies had also eased policy, or signalled that they were prepared to do so, in response to subdued inflation, moderating activity and downside risks to growth. For similar reasons, central banks in emerging markets had also been easing policy over recent months and had signalled the possibility of further easing.
Financial conditions for corporations remained accommodative globally. This reflected market participants' ongoing expectations that central banks were likely to deliver further monetary easing to sustain the global economic expansion. Corporate bond spreads had increased a little in August, but remained low. Equity prices had declined somewhat, reflecting concerns about the outlook for growth, but remained substantially higher over the year to date. In Australia, equity prices were 5 per cent below the record high reached in late July. Australian listed companies' profits had risen, driven by the resources sector. At the aggregate level, companies had increased their dividends over the preceding year, although this reflected higher dividends in the resources sector in particular.
In China, the authorities had intervened to support three small banks in preceding months, and the People's Bank of China had continued to maintain a high level of liquidity in the banking system. While funding conditions for smaller banks had tightened this year, money market rates and corporate and government bond yields in China had generally remained low and market participants were expecting further easing in monetary policy in the period ahead.
In foreign exchange markets, the Chinese renminbi had depreciated against the US dollar in August following the escalation of the US–China disputes, while the Japanese yen had appreciated over the month. The Australian dollar had been little changed at around its lowest level in some years.
In Australia, borrowing rates for both businesses and households were at historically low levels, as were banks' funding costs. Variable mortgage rates had declined broadly in line with the reductions in the cash rate in June and July. Fixed mortgage rates had also declined substantially over the preceding six months. Financial market pricing continued to imply that the cash rate was expected to be lowered by another 25 basis points by November 2019, with a further cut expected in the early part of 2020.
Growth in housing credit had been little changed over the year to July, having declined steadily through 2018. Credit to investors had declined slightly over previous months. Meanwhile, housing loan approvals to both owner-occupiers and investors had increased for the second consecutive month in July. This pick-up in loan approvals had followed a significant decline over the preceding two years and was consistent with the signs of stabilisation in the established housing market. Borrowing by large businesses had continued to grow at a relatively strong pace. In contrast, small businesses' access to finance remained difficult, and had become more difficult over the preceding year as banks had tightened their lending practices. While new sources of non-traditional finance had been growing, including equity funding from family offices and private equity funds, they remained a small share of business funding.
Members had a detailed discussion of the ways in which financial conditions abroad affect Australia. They discussed how shifts in world interest rates and global risk premiums flow through to domestic financial conditions. While Australia's floating exchange rate means that monetary policy can be set largely according to domestic considerations, members discussed the large shifts in savings/investment decisions globally, which were affecting the level of interest rates everywhere, including in Australia. Members also noted the critical role that the exchange rate had played over many years as a shock absorber for the Australian economy. One important factor here has been that Australian entities raising offshore funding are able to do so in Australian dollars, either directly or via hedging markets.
Considerations for Monetary Policy
Turning to the policy decision, members observed that the news on the international economy had confirmed that the risks to the global growth outlook were to the downside. The trade disputes between the United States and China had escalated and growth in China had continued to slow. There had been further indications that these developments were affecting trade and investment decisions in overseas economies, although businesses had continued hiring and labour market conditions had remained tight.
Against this backdrop and with ongoing low inflation, a number of central banks had reduced interest rates over recent months and further monetary easing was widely expected. Long-term government bond yields had declined and were at record lows in many countries, including Australia. Borrowing rates for both businesses and households were also at historically low levels, and the Australian dollar exchange rate was at the lowest level that it had been in recent times.
Domestically, members considered a number of developments over preceding months that had a bearing on the monetary policy decision. First, employment had continued to grow strongly and the participation rate was at a record high. However, the unemployment rate had remained steady at around 5.2 per cent over recent months. At the same time, wages growth had remained low and there were few indications that wage pressures were building. Members noted that a further gradual lift in wages growth would be a welcome development. Taken together, recent outcomes suggested that spare capacity remained in the labour market and that the Australian economy could sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment.
Second, there had been further signs of a turnaround in established housing markets, especially in Sydney and Melbourne, although housing turnover had remained low. Housing credit growth had remained subdued, although mortgage rates were at record low levels and there was strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality. Data on residential building approvals and information from the Bank's liaison program suggested that there was likely to be further weakness in dwelling investment in the near term; members recognised that this could sow the seeds of an upswing in the housing price cycle at some point, particularly given the lengthy stages in the construction of higher-density residential housing. Demand for credit by investors continued to be subdued and credit conditions, especially for small and medium-sized businesses, remained tight.
Finally, based on partial indicators, GDP growth in the June quarter was expected to have been around ½ per cent. The largest contributions to growth were expected to have been from exports and public demand. Private final demand, which includes consumption, business investment and dwelling investment, was expected to have been weak.
Looking forward, the outlook for output growth was being supported by the low level of interest rates, recent tax cuts, signs of stabilisation in some established housing markets and a brighter outlook for the resources sector. A key uncertainty continued to be the outlook for consumption growth, which was expected to increase over time, supported by a gradual pick-up in growth in household disposable income and improvements in conditions in the housing market. Inflation pressures remained subdued, but inflation was expected to increase gradually to be a little above 2 per cent over 2021 as output growth picked up and the labour market tightened.
Based on the information available, members judged that it was reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates would be required in Australia to make sustained progress towards full employment and achieve more assured progress towards the inflation target. Members would assess developments in both the international and domestic economies, including labour market conditions, and would ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time.
The Decision
The Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.00 per cent.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Low interest rates necessary to support growth: RBA September minutes 

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Australian GDP rose by 0.5% in the June quarter and annual growth slowed to 1.4%, which was right on market forecasts but below the RBA’s forecasts for a 0.8% rise in the quarter.
GDP growth is very weak and at its lowest level since the Global Financial Crisis (see chart below) which is why there is all the talk of a recession in Australia lately and why conditions in some pockets of the economy may feel recession-like.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/4/GDP.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/9/4/GDP.png" alt="">
Source: ABS, AMP Capital
The weakness in the Australian economy that started in mid-2018 has continued well into 2019.
The make-up of growth still remains a concern as private demand fell again in the June quarter (by 0.1%) with large increases in public spending and net exports “saving” the economy.
With consumer spending still struggling to lift noticeably, falling residential construction, moderate business investment growth, the private sector side of the economy will likely remain weak.
A softer global environment may also infiltrate further into Australia’s external sector. So the risk of an Australian recession remains and can’t be ignored.
However, this is not our base case partly because we expect more RBA interest rate cuts, possibly quantitative easing, and more fiscal stimulus which should help lift growth.
If the improvement in home prices continues it would also be positive for household wealth and provide some boost to inflation.  
The key components of the June quarter data are:
<ul>
<li>Consumer spending rose by 0.4%, contributing 0.2 percentage points to the June quarter GDP.</li>
</ul>
Consumer spending growth is still declining, with annual growth falling to 1.4%.
The household saving ratio declined to 2.3% (from 3%) after increasing in prior quarters.
While there may be some more downside to consumer spending growth due to the low wages environment, the bottoming in national home prices means that the negative wealth effect is waning.
Tax cuts to low and middle income earners should also have a positive boost to consumption over coming months, although the fall in July retail sales is concerning.
The declining household saving ratio tells us that the buffer for consumer spending is declining.
<ul>
<li>Housing investment continues to decline and detracted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth.</li>
</ul>
New residential construction fell by 5.9% and alterations and additions were down by 1.4%.
Ownership transfer costs (a proxy for housing turnover activity) improved by 4.3%.
Building approvals continue to fall so there is still further downside to residential construction over the next year.
<ul>
<li>Underlying business investment (which takes into account asset transfers between the private and public sector) fell by 0.4% and made no contribution to growth.</li>
</ul>
Non-residential building was down by 5% and engineering construction dropped by 4.7% but is down 19.6% year on year.
Non-residential building approvals have been mixed over the past few months so there may be some more weakness to come for building activity.
The capital expenditure survey indicated that business investment growth will be positive albeit modest over the next year as mining investment is slowly improving, manufacturing investment is lifting and spending in the services industry is still trending up.
<ul>
<li>Underlying government spending (which takes into account asset transfers between the private and public sector) was up strongly by 1.4% and contributed 0.3 percentage points to growth.</li>
</ul>
Government consumption rose by 2.7% but investment fell by 2.3%. State and Federal government spending on infrastructure has been driving public spending over the past few years.
While the pipeline of projects in construction is peaking, the slow pace of project completions due to delays or other issues means that the peak in government infrastructure spending keeps on being pushed out which is a positive for GDP growth (but maybe not a positive for traffic congestion!).
<ul>
<li>Inventories collapsed and detracted 0.5 percentage points from growth which means that production did not keep up with sales.</li>
</ul>
The inventory to sales is at a record low of 0.581 and is unlikely to fall much further from here which means that inventories are likely to add to GDP in coming quarters.
<ul>
<li>Net exports boomed and contributed 0.6 percentage points to growth.</li>
</ul>
Export growth is solid which is a good sign of demand for goods and services but the collapse in imports (especially in consumption imports) is a bad sign for consumer spending.
<ul>
<li>Productivity growth is still poor with the “GDP per hour worked in the market sector” flat over the June quarter and down by 0.6% over the year.</li>
</ul>
Weakness in productivity growth reconciles the divergence between strong employment growth and weak GDP numbers. 
Implications
While the RBA kept the cash rate unchanged yesterday, despite knowing the weakness in July retail sales and anticipating a low June quarter GDP number, we still expect rate cuts in October and November taking the cash rate to 0.5% as global data remains weak, the unemployment rate increases and global central banks (the ECB and Fed) cut interest rates (and restart asset purchases in Europe) in September which may influence the RBA’s decision to do more monetary stimulus lest the Australian dollar rises.
SHANE OLIVER is Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital.
DIANA MOUSINA is an Economist at AMP Capital.  
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RBA to cut the cash rate to 0.5% by the end of the year: Shane Oliver & Diana Mousina 

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The RBA decided to keep the official cash rate on hold at a record low one per cent at its September meeting.
It follows a hold last month.
The charts came out on the RBA learning that GDP growth slid to 1.4 per cent over the June quarter, the slowest in a decade.
The result was in line with economists' expectations.
Today the RBA have released their chart pack, which highlights key factors in the Australian economy.
Property Observer takes a look at four key charts which will have been strong influencers in the decision to cut the official interest rate.
HOUSE PRICES CONTINUED TO REBOUND
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/4/House%20Prices.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/4/House%20Prices.jpg" alt="">
 
House prices continued their uptick, <a href="/expert-insights/buying/sydney-and-melbourne-house-and-apartment-prices-power-ahead-in-august-corelogic">driven by Sydney and Melbourne</a>.
In his meeting statement, RBA governor Philip Lowe noted the further signs of property turnaround, <a href="/expert-insights/finance/further-signs-of-property-turnaround-especially-in-sydney-and-melbourne-rba-september-meeting">particularly in Sydney and Melbourne</a>.
CONSUMER SENTIMENT REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/4/Consumer%20sentiment.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/4/Consumer%20sentiment.jpg" alt="">
Westpac's Matthew Hassan noted that consumer confidence is <a href="/news/housing-sentiment-at-its-most-positive-in-over-5-years-matthew-hassan">at its highest in five years</a>.
Westpac research broke down <a href="/expert-insights/buying/a-state-by-state-housing-sentiment-rundown-matthew-hassan">where sentiment was growing</a> state by state.
LABOUR MARKET NOT HITTING TARGETS
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/4/LABOUR%20MARKET.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/4/LABOUR%20MARKET.jpg" alt="">
The labour market is one of the key indices which the RBA are keeping their eye on.
In July the unemployment rate <a href="/expert-insights/investing/unemployment-rate-meets-forecasts-and-remains-at-5-2">remained unchanged</a> at 5.2 per cent. 
Richard Holden says our progress on wages and unemployment <a href="/expert-insights/investing/amid-talk-of-recessions-our-progress-on-wages-and-unemployment-is-almost-non-existent">is almost non-existent</a>.
BUILDING APPROVALS CONTINUE DECLINE
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/4/Building%20approvals.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/4/Building%20approvals.jpg" alt="">
 
Building approvals across the country continue to decline, led by New South Wales.
JLL noted Sydney apartment approvals <a href="/expert-insights/buying/sydney-apartment-approvals-down-30-in-one-year-jll">were down 30 per cent</a>. 
There was a sharp 9.7 per cent drop in July across the country, taking <a href="/expert-insights/buying/australian-dwelling-approvals-lurch-lower-matthew-hassan">approvals to a six and a half year low.</a>
 
 
 
 
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The four charts that prompted the RBA to keep rates on hold in September

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EXPERT OBSERVER
As expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.0% at today’s meeting.
The all-important final paragraph is slightly changed from the previous August decision statement and the minutes of the August meeting (“The board will continue to monitor developments, including in the labour market, and ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time”).
Given that Westpac is expecting the Board to cut rates by a further 25bps at the next meeting in October, we would have liked to have seen the term “if needed” excluded from the decision statement. As discussed in our preview to today’s decision, the term “if needed” could be interpreted as requiring more time than one month to decide on the next cut. However (realistically) the Board should not lock itself into a specific strategy one month out from the next meeting. By maintaining the “if needed” qualification, it provides itself with flexibility.
General commentary in the decision statement is very similar to the August decision statement. The most important changes are to be somewhat guarded on housing markets, “further signs of a turnaround in established housing markets”, but to also point out that construction activity has weakened.
There is also less apparent confidence in the growth and unemployment forecasts. The 2½ per cent forecast for GDP growth in 2019, which was explicitly noted in August, was not mentioned, although the expected return to trend growth “over the next couple of years” is noted. In August, the Governor’s decision statement specifically referred to the unemployment rate edging back to 5% “over the following couple of years”. That forecast was also not repeated in today’s decision statement.
Other themes that are consistent with the August statement are: risks are tilted to the downside for the global economy; “further monetary easing is widely expected” for a number of central banks; “Australian dollar is at its lowest level of recent times” (USD 0.6770 in August, down to USD 0.6700 in September); main source of domestic uncertainty remains the outlook for consumption; a further gradual lift in wages growth would be a welcome development; and “inflation pressures likely to remain subdued for some time yet” (new description).
Conclusion
With less confidence around the economic forecasts and recognition about the weakening activity in the residential construction sector, this decision statement is marginally more downbeat than the statement in August.
With the emphasis consistently on the labour market in both statements, the monthly employment reports remain important. However, other factors are also key to the October decision.
Firstly, it is likely that tomorrow’s GDP report for the June quarter will show the economy had less momentum than had been expected by the RBA at the time of the August meeting (detailed forecasts imply a GDP growth rate of 0.8% was expected for the June quarter). And while the Governor backs away from the 2½ per cent growth forecast for 2019, there still appears to be a heavy dose of optimism around the general growth outlook. If Westpac’s forecast for GDP growth in the June quarter of 0.5% proves to be correct, then the RBA is likely to need to revise down its growth forecast of 2½ per cent for 2019 and reasonably review the 2¾ per cent forecast for 2020
Secondly, it is clear that the RBA values the weakening of the AUD. We expect that by the time of the October meeting, the US Federal Reserve will have further cut the federal funds rate, and, in turn, lessening the impact on the AUD of recent rate cuts by the RBA, clearly signalling the need for further action.
Thirdly, a cut in October leaves options open for a further cut in December should conditions, particularly in global markets, point to the need for even lower rates. Leaving the next move to November reduces the RBA’s flexibility, given that a cut in December would represent back-to-back moves. As measured by the Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment index, the back-to-back moves in June and July unnecessarily unnerved households.
All these arguments, on balance, point to another cut in October being the best way for the RBA to stay ahead of the curve and provide further downward pressure on the AUD.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist for Westpac 
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RBA slightly more downbeat, October likely the next cut: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The RBA remained on hold at a record low cash rate of 1% at its September board meeting as widely expected. This followed 0.25% rate cuts in June and July.
The Bank’s post meeting statement was little changed which was a bit surprising given the further escalation of the US-China trade war over the last month and the run of soft economic data in Australia. Nevertheless the statement remained dovish:
<ul type="disc">
<li>referring to the downside risks to global growth from the trade war and associated uncertainty;</li>
<li>although it still sees growth strengthening to around trend, this is only expected to occur “gradually”;</li>
<li>noting that the outlook for consumer spending remains the main domestic uncertainty;</li>
<li>noting that wages growth remains subdued with little upwards pressure; and</li>
<li>indicating that inflation will likely be subdued for some time yet.</li>
</ul>
The final paragraph repeated Governor Lowe’s recently used forward guidance to expect an “extended period of low interest rates” and noted that the Board stands ready to ease monetary policy again if needed, indicating that the Bank retains an easing bias.
The RBA is still waiting to see what sort of boost to growth the rate cuts of June and July and the Federal Government’s tax cuts for low and middle income earners provide.  However, while these will help avoid recession we doubt that they will be enough to generate decent growth and the evidence from July is not that encouraging!
While house prices in Sydney and Melbourne may be bouncing higher, growth looks to have been far weaker than the RBA expected in the June quarter with only trade and public spending keeping the economy from going backwards, the growth outlook remains weak with the housing construction downturn gathering pace and threat from Trump’s trade war increasing, and there is no sign of any pick up in wages growth and inflation with unemployment looking more likely to drift up than down.
So while the RBA is content to wait for now, we continue to see two more rate cuts this year taking the cash rate down to 0.5%, with the next cut likely coming next month.
While the rebound in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets could present a problem for the RBA in terms of cutting rates further, the RBA will likely do what it believes is right for the “average” of Australia rather two cities’ property markets. But it may have to resort to tighter regulatory controls again if it needs to cool the Sydney and Melbourne property markets once more for financial stability reasons.
SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist for AMP Capital
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RBA still set to cut to 0.5% by years end: Shane Oliver

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<div>
<div class="rss-mr-content">
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.00 per cent.
The outlook for the global economy remains reasonable, although the risks are tilted to the downside. The trade and technology disputes are affecting international trade flows and investment as businesses scale back spending plans due to the increased uncertainty. At the same time, in most advanced economies, unemployment rates are low and wages growth has picked up, although inflation remains low. In China, the authorities have taken further steps to support the economy, while continuing to address risks in the financial system.
Global financial conditions remain accommodative. The persistent downside risks to the global economy combined with subdued inflation have led a number of central banks to reduce interest rates this year and further monetary easing is widely expected. Long-term government bond yields have declined and are at record lows in many countries, including Australia. Borrowing rates for both businesses and households are also at historically low levels. The Australian dollar is at its lowest level of recent times.
Economic growth in Australia over the first half of this year has been lower than earlier expected, with household consumption weighed down by a protracted period of low income growth and declining housing prices and turnover. Looking forward, growth in Australia is expected to strengthen gradually to be around trend over the next couple of years. The outlook is being supported by the low level of interest rates, recent tax cuts, ongoing spending on infrastructure, signs of stabilisation in some established housing markets and a brighter outlook for the resources sector. The main domestic uncertainty continues to be the outlook for consumption, although a pick-up in growth in household disposable income and a stabilisation of the housing market are expected to support spending.
Employment has grown strongly over recent years and labour force participation is at a record high. The unemployment rate has, however, remained steady at 5.2 per cent over recent months. Wages growth remains subdued and there is little upward pressure at present, with strong labour demand being met by more supply. Caps on wages growth are also affecting public-sector pay outcomes across the country. A further gradual lift in wages growth would be a welcome development. Taken together, recent labour market outcomes suggest that the Australian economy can sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment.
Inflation pressures remain subdued and this is likely to be the case for some time yet. In both headline and underlying terms, inflation is expected to be a little under 2 per cent over 2020 and a little above 2 per cent over 2021.
There are further signs of a turnaround in established housing markets, especially in Sydney and Melbourne. In contrast, new dwelling activity has weakened. Growth in housing credit remains low. Demand for credit by investors continues to be subdued and credit conditions, especially for small and medium-sized businesses, remain tight. Mortgage rates are at record lows and there is strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality.
It is reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required in Australia to make progress in reducing unemployment and achieve more assured progress towards the inflation target. The Board will continue to monitor developments, including in the labour market, and ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time.
</div>
</div>
<div class="box-enquiries"> </div>
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Further signs of property turnaround especially in Sydney and Melbourne: RBA September meeting

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The RBA have decided to hold the official cash rate at a record low one per cent at its September meeting today.
CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless said the <a href="/expert-insights/buying/sydney-and-melbourne-house-and-apartment-prices-power-ahead-in-august-corelogic">resurgence in Sydney and Melbourne housing values</a> was likely a key topic of conversation amongst the RBA Board at today’s meeting. 
"In line with rate cuts in June and July, housing values in Australia’s two largest cities have recorded a lift, with dwelling values rising 1.9% and 1.8% in Sydney and Melbourne over the past three months.  
"August data showed CoreLogic’s national index recorded its first month on month rise since October 2017 and five of the eight capital cities saw dwelling values increase.  
"Clearly housing market conditions are responding to lower interest rates as well as the recent loosening of loan serviceability rules from APRA and the positive influence of the stable federal election outcome.  
Lawless noted that the recovery trend is still very early and there is the potential for the pace of growth to slow as advertised stock levels rise in line with spring.
"If the recent acceleration in housing value growth is sustained over coming months, we could potentially see additional credit policy levers pulled, aimed at keeping a lid on household debt. 
"Limiting lending to borrowers on high debt to income ratios could be one option, or introducing hard limits on high LVR lending could be another mechanism that would reduce the risk of a further build up in household debt whilst at the same time allow borrowers to access housing credit and take advantage such low interest rates."
The Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey saw 95 per cent of their 41 experts and economists surveyed predict a cash rate hold in September.
Craig Emerson, of Craig Emerson Economics, said the RBA will save its last few bullets for now, but he predicts and October cut.
"The RBA will be reluctant to use up its little remaining ammunition," Emerson said.
Westpac's Bill Evans also recently suggested we <a href="/expert-insights/finance/rba-to-hold-next-week-but-expect-october-rate-cut-bill-evans">should be looking to October</a> for the cut.
Griffith University economics professor Tony Makin is one of 61 per cent of experts in the survey who believe the RBA will wait until November.
"Previous RBA research suggested it takes up to 18 months for the effects of official interest rate changes to feed through to the wider economy," Makin said.
“The RBA should therefore be waiting a little longer before cutting further, especially in light of the weaker dollar of recent weeks."
 
 
 
 
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RBA holds rates at September meeting

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The minutes of the Reserve Bank Board meeting for August have provided one significant surprise.
In both the Governor's decision statement following the meeting and the Statement on Monetary Policy( similar version), the conclusion included "the Board would continue to monitor developments in the labour market closely and adjust monetary policy if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time".
In these minutes, the emphasis has changed to the following "the Board judged it appropriate to assess developments in the global and domestic economies before considering further change in the setting of monetary policy. Members would consider a further easing of monetary policy if the accumulation of additional evidence suggests this was needed to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time".
So the message here is that policy could be eased in response to an unexpected deterioration in the global economy without the labour market providing an adequate justification for a rate cut.
Clearly, the Board has become more concerned about the global outlook: "trade and technology disputes had increased the downside risks to the global outlook", "uncertainty around trade policy had already had a negative effect on investment in many economies", and "a number of central banks had reduced interest rates this year and further monetary easing was widely expected".
This is not to say that concerns around the labour market have eased. As we observed with the increase in the RBA's unemployment forecasts and the downward revision to wage growth forecasts, the Board has noted: "there appeared to have been more spare capacity in the labour market than previously appreciated", and there is "a more subdued outlook for wages than three months earlier".
There appears to be a somewhat positive spin on the outlook for the real economy: "Although, the outlook for consumption remained uncertain, the risks around the outlook were more balanced than they had been for some time", "evidence that conditions in housing markets were showing signs of a turnaround had strengthened in July", and "signs of a turnaround in housing markets suggested there were some upside risks to dwelling investment later in the forecast period".
This commentary is consistent with the growth forecasts which anticipate GDP growth lifting from 2½ per cent in 2019 to 2¾ per cent in 2020. Westpac's forecasts are for 2.25% in 2019 and 2.5% in 2020. However, Westpac sees the clear downside risks to these forecasts coming from global developments, and it appears that the RBA Board is harbouring similar concerns.
As we saw in the Governor's testimony to the parliamentary economic committee, the Board has been briefed on unconventional monetary policy measures. The minutes cover the various measures that have been adopted overseas, but correctly qualify the assessment since "full evaluation could not been undertaken as many of these measures were yet to be unwound". It also noted that "effectiveness depended upon the specific circumstances and the nature of the financial system".
As we saw in the Governor's testimony, at this stage the Board seems to favour purchasing government bonds which were expected to flow through to lower interest rates for private borrowers. It also noted that "a package of measures tended to be more effective than measures implemented in isolation".
Conclusion
We do not think that after emphasising the labour market as the key factor for policy in the May, June and July minutes, the importance of the labour is in any way diluted. However, as a small open economy, a responsible central bank could not be seen to dissociate policy from global developments given the alarming signals around the world economy.
It is also important to be clear that the forecasts in the Statement on Monetary Policy, on which these minutes are based, assume market pricing for the cash rate path. At the time of the forecasts, the market pricing discounted two further rate cuts — one by the "end of this year", and a second in the "first half of 2020".
Despite this rate path, the forecasts indicate a lower profile for wages growth (reaching only 2.4% in 2021), an increase in the unemployment rate forecast (from 5% to 5.2% in December 2020), and the trimmed inflation rate forecast now below 2% by end 2020 (at 1.9%). These forecasts indicate that despite two more rate cuts, the RBA still does not expect the unemployment rate to go remotely close to its stated desired 4.5% over the forecast horizon, or reach the 2-3% target band for inflation before 2021.
Consequently, we remain comfortable with our forecast that the RBA will next cut the cash rate in October by 25bps and wait until early 2020 (February) for the second cut of 25bps.
BILL EVANS is Westpac's Chief Economist
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Reserve Bank Board highlights global risks for policy: Bill Evans

Strengthened property turnaround evidence seen by RBA: August RBA minutes

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Unemployment ticked slightly higher in July, but remained steady on a seasonally adjusted basis, firm over July, according to the latest figures form the ABS.
The unemployment rate was predicted to remain unchanged at 5.2 percent in July, seasonally adjusted, with an increase of around 14,000 jobs tipped.
In trend estimates however, unemployment rose to 5.3 percent.
There were 41,100 jobs added over the month.
Full time employment increased by 34,500, with part time employment rising 6,700.
IFM Investors economist Alex Joiner said employment growth was strong with the amount of jobs added over the month. There had been just 500 jobs added in June.
"The unemployment rate tracked sideways at 5.2% despite rising participation, potentially giving the RBA another month to assess the data," Joiner said. 
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/Unemployment%20by%20state.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/Unemployment%20by%20state.jpg" alt="">
South Australia now has the highest unemployment rate in the country, seasonally adjusted at 6.9 percent.
Unemployment declined in New South Wales, Queensland and Tasmania.  
ABS chief economist Bruce Hockman said Australia's trend unemployment rate increased to 5.3 per cent in July 2019, the same level as this time last year. "The trend participation rate increased further to 66.1 per cent, while employment growth continues to show strength," Hockman added.
Former RBA economist Callam Pickering says Australia still has a two speed labour market.
"Unemployment rate in NSW (4.5%) and VIC (4.8%) much better than in other parts of the country. SA (6.3%), QLD (6.4%) and TAS (6.7%) particularly troubling," he said.
Over the past year, trend employment increased by 339,200 persons (2.7 percent) which was above the average annual growth over the past 20 years (2.0 percent).
Australia doesn't come close to making it into the top 16 countries for unemployment rate.
South Africa has an unemployment rate of nearly 30 percent, while Portugal, who are 16th on the list, have 6.8% of the population unemployed.
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