National diversified developer Fortis has officially launched Crest &amp; Walker, its latest Brisbane apartment development, with construction now underway on the 20-storey Newstead project.

Award-winning builder BINAH has commenced construction on the Bureau^Proberts-designed building, which will deliver a limited collection of 65 two and three-bedroom apartments on Kyabra Street.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373556]

The project marks Fortis' fourth active residential development in Brisbane, following River House, which is nearing completion, alongside projects in New Farm and Hamilton as the national developer continues to expand its South East Queensland pipeline.

Fortis General Manager – Development Queensland Dan Boman said Crest &amp; Walker reflects the developer's long-term commitment to delivering design-led residential projects in Brisbane's established inner-city suburbs.

"We're proud to be strengthening our presence in Brisbane with Crest &amp; Walker, particularly in such a sought-after lifestyle destination as Newstead," Boman said.

"Every Fortis project is shaped by its context, and we approach each one with the respect and care it deserves.

"Our focus is always on creating places that feel connected to their neighbourhood and elevate the everyday experience for residents. Newstead continues to evolve as one of Brisbane's most sought-after urban communities, and Crest &amp; Walker reflects our ambition to contribute meaningfully to that story."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373559]

Positioned between Gasworks Plaza and James Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crest-walker-newstead-12-kyabra-street-newstead-qld-4006">Crest &amp; Walker</a> has been designed as a boutique residential address offering privacy and generous living spaces within one of Brisbane's most established lifestyle precincts.

The building features a contemporary brick podium softened by integrated landscaping, while the upper levels are characterised by restrained architecture and enduring materiality. Interiors have been designed to maximise natural light, acoustic performance and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373583]

Residences comprise spacious two and three-bedroom floorplans, with two-bedroom apartments priced from $1.55 million and three-bedroom, half-floor residences from $3.95 million.

Residents will have access to a wellness-focused rooftop featuring a swimming pool, sauna, steam room, landscaped dining spaces and outdoor lounge areas overlooking Newstead and the Brisbane CBD.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373571]

Sales are being managed by Slaite Projects, with Fortis expecting strong demand from owner-occupiers seeking a high-quality, design-focused apartment in one of Brisbane's most tightly held inner-city suburbs.

Completion of Crest &amp; Walker is slated for late 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145922]

Joel Robinson

Fortis expands Brisbane pipeline with launch of Crest & Walker in Newstead

The enormity of delivering a true skyscraper in Australia's new development market is often overlooked.

It has taken the best part of a decade since plans for Chevron One were first unveiled, but the 52-storey tower is now complete, with residents collecting their keys and moving into what has become one of the Gold Coast's most recognisable new landmarks.

Rising 127 metres above Chevron Island, Chevron One stands almost twice as high as any other building on the island. Its scale places it alongside the trio of towers at Jewel, arguably the last truly significant addition to the central Gold Coast skyline when they were completed around six years ago.

While there are several developments underway around a similar height to Chevron One, they are more concentrated within clusters of the highest towers in the city. The fact Chevron One sits within a developing precinct, looking back at the other high-rise developments in Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach, makes it a different proposition altogether. It will certainly become a reference point on the Gold Coast skyline.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68833]

Developer Bensons Property Group is behind the 52-storey tower, which has just shy of 250 apartments, along with an exhaustive list of resident amenity spread across what is the largest development site ever assembled on Chevron Island.

The tower has been the talk of the town for years, says Ray White Projects Gold Coast agent Caitlin Rosenboom, who is selling the remaining apartments.

"People have been watching Chevron One go up for years," Rosenboom says, adding that many prospective buyers have been surprised by the scale of the views once they step inside.

"It's only when they walk through a completed apartment that they truly understand the position of the building," Rosenboom says.

"The views are jaw-dropping. Whether you're looking east over the ocean, across Surfers Paradise, along the river systems or out to the hinterland, every level offers something different but equally impressive."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=360215]

One of Chevron One's defining advantages is its location on the eastern side of Chevron Island on Stanhill Drive, a position which protects the views forever.

"There's only one row of houses between Chevron One and the water, and the height restrictions along the river means views from Chevron One can never be built out,"&nbsp;Rosenboom says.

While new apartment developments continue to emerge across the Gold Coast, Rosenboom says opportunities to secure a completed apartment with this level of outlook are becoming increasingly rare.

"The size of the site is something that would be incredibly difficult to replicate today," she says.

"That's allowed Chevron One to deliver the sort of amenity, open space and resident facilities that very few projects can offer. There are not many completed apartment buildings on the Gold Coast right now that can compete with the combination of scale, quality and amenity."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68839]

There's around 2,000 sqm of amenity solely for the use of residents of Chevron One. Club One features a uniquely shaped swimming pool that mirrors the footprint of the building itself, set within a extensively landscaped gardens. There's also an indoor pool and spa, a fully equipped gym with a Pilates room, a yoga garden, a bookable private dining area and lounge that can host up to 30 people, and a 24-hour concierge service.

As for the buyers, Rosenboom is fielding enquiry from everywhere: Sydneysiders and Melburnians looking at the new and off-the-plan market following the changes in the Federal Budget, as well as those looking to relocate, through to South East Queenslanders seeking either a permanent home or a weekender bolthole.

"The Gold Coast lifestyle continues to resonate with people relocating from the southern states, and when they see the views and the quality of what's been delivered at Chevron One, it becomes very easy for them to understand the appeal," Rosenboom says.

A diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments remain available, with each offering "something a little different", be it the orientation and views, configuration, or level, to suit a wide variety of buyers.

The remaining apartments are ready to inspect in person, by appointment.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6515]

A decade in the making: Residents to move into Chevron One as construction wraps up

A general rule of thumb in new apartment developments is that the penthouses get the rooftop.

It's a formula that's become commonplace across Australia's apartment market. Residents might have access to a pool, gym or barbecue facilities on a dedicated lower level, but the most desirable outdoor spaces are typically reserved for the highest-priced homes at the top of the building.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Property Group</a> has taken the opposite approach.

Rather than dedicating the rooftop to a handful of buyers, the Gold Coast developer has made it the centrepiece of its Flourish collection, creating expansive shared spaces from the best vantage point in the building.

The philosophy has reached its most ambitious expression at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> in Palm Beach, where two rooftop precincts connected by a skybridge will deliver one of the most extensive lifestyle offerings seen in a residential apartment project on the Gold Coast.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374053]

"We're seeing a clear move toward developments that offer more than just an apartment," Sherpa Group founder Christie Leet said.

"People want spaces that support how they actually live, whether that's working from home, staying active, or spending time with family and friends.

"That's where amenity becomes critical. It's not just about what's included, but how those spaces are designed to be used every day."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374052]

The breadth of amenity has already attracted buyers across multiple demographics. Younger first home buyers have been drawn to Soleira's one-bedroom apartments, a product rarely delivered in Palm Beach, while families have responded to practical inclusions such as the shallow children's pool adjoining the main lap pool and the extensive communal recreation areas.

Instead of a single rooftop, Soleira delivers two distinct lifestyle zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]

The southern rooftop has been dedicated to wellness, featuring a gym, yoga and Pilates studio, work-from-home facilities, a wellness centre, spa, and hot and cold plunge pools.

The northern rooftop focuses on recreation and entertaining, incorporating a heated resort-style pool, private dining rooms, pizza ovens, barbecues, a golf simulator, children's recreation areas, and what is expected to be the Gold Coast's first rooftop basketball court, which will also double as a squash court.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374054]

Beyond the rooftops, Soleira will introduce 1,500 sqm of curated retail beneath the towers, creating one of Palm Beach's first genuinely mixed-use lifestyle precincts where cafés, restaurants and convenience retail become part of residents' everyday lives.

Sherpa has also retained management rights across the development, allowing it to oversee the long-term operation of the building through a 24-hour concierge model. The developer is also exploring additional revenue streams within the precinct aimed at helping offset ongoing body corporate costs for residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370962]

While Soleira is the largest project Sherpa has delivered, the rooftop-first philosophy has been evolving for several years.

It began with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>, the first project released under the Flourish brand. Rather than competing at the ultra-luxury end of the market with oversized half-floor and full-floor residences, Sherpa focused on creating lifestyle-driven apartments supported by resort-style shared spaces.

Amargo introduced more than 800 sqm of rooftop amenity, combining wellness facilities, heated pools, entertaining areas, cabanas, pizza ovens and private dining spaces into what was designed as an extension of residents' homes rather than a facility used only occasionally.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=366550]

That approach continued with Flourish Oasis, where the same amenity-led philosophy was refined into a more boutique development. Strong demand from Sherpa's growing VIP database saw much of the project sold before it reached the broader market, reinforcing buyer appetite for apartment communities centred around shared lifestyle experiences.

Flourish Amargo is slated for completion mid-way-through next year, with Oasis to be delivered by late 2027. Flourish Soleira is expected to complete in 2030.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa takes amenity to the sky as Flourish Soleira captures booming Palm Beach demand

As apartment living continues to evolve across Sydney's growth corridors, the quality and distribution of shared spaces is increasingly shaping how residents experience home. Rather than functioning as add-ons, amenities are being embedded into the daily rhythm of a building, supporting everything from quiet retreat to social interaction, often within a single vertical community.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aeris-melrose-park-nursery-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Aeris</a> in Melrose Park, this approach is resolved through a layered amenity offering that unfolds from ground level through to its upper podium. Developed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a> in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties, the project introduces 468 apartments across two towers and a mid-rise building, positioned at the highest point of the broader masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=359199]

The amenity experience begins at street level, where two courtyards sit within a landscaped setting that connects residents to the wider network of parks and green spaces. These green spaces are not isolated pockets but part of a wider pedestrian network that links Aeris to the surrounding <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a> precinct, including Central Park, future schools, and the Town Centre opening in July 2026. The result is a transition that moves from public to private without abrupt boundaries, allowing residents to pass through shaded, tree-lined environments before reaching the building itself.

Moving upward, the focus shifts to the level five podium, where the primary communal facilities are concentrated. This space brings together a 16-metre swimming pool, outdoor seating areas, and a communal BBQ zone arranged to take advantage of elevated outlooks. Seating is positioned beneath pergolas, creating pockets of shade that extend the usability of the space throughout the day. The pool edge aligns with views toward the wider district, reinforcing the sense of elevation that defines the project’s positioning.

In the adjacent building, this is complemented by quieter, more contemplative spaces, including an outdoor cinema set within the same level. Positioned to operate primarily in the evening, it introduces a different tempo to the shared environment, shifting from daytime activity to after-hours use without requiring separate zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360299]

The podium also accommodates an intimate private resident gym. Located on the lower levels, it gives residents convenient access to fitness facilities without leaving the building.

Above, the elevated podium sky deck extends the amenity offering, providing additional open-air spaces with elevated outlooks across the surrounding landscape. While more restrained in program, this upper level reinforces the project’s vertical progression, from ground-level greenery to elevated outlook, allowing residents to move between distinct spatial conditions within a single address.

This distribution of amenities reflects a deliberate response to how residents use space across the day. Sekisui House Australia Sales and Marketing Director Peter Kalaf points to the role these shared areas play in shaping buyer demand. Aeris has been conceived as more than a collection of apartments, with the podium pool, gym and outdoor cinema forming part of a broader lifestyle offering that extends the home beyond each individual residence.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360300]

What distinguishes Aeris is not the inclusion of these elements individually, but how they are arranged in relation to one another. Active, social, and passive spaces are layered vertically rather than separated, allowing residents to choose between them without leaving the building or moving far from their apartment. This proximity supports both routine use, such as a morning swim or evening workout, and more occasional gatherings, whether around the BBQ area or within the cinema setting.

The amenity design also sits within a broader framework of connectivity across Melrose Park. The Melrose Park Town Centre, anchored by Coles and Dan Murphys, features a mix of retail, dining, health and lifestyle offerings, bringing everyday convenience closer to residents. By the end of the year, more than five hectares of parks and open space, equivalent to around seven football fields of green space on residents' doorstep, will further enhance the precinct, allowing the internal facilities at Aeris to operate as an extension of the wider neighbourhood rather than a substitute for it.

Construction at Aeris continues to gather momentum, with ground floor slabs expected to be completed in late 2026 before the first sections of the buildings begin to rise above ground.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=426]

Elevated amenity anchors daily life at Aeris, Melrose Park

Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

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"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

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The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Rba Rate Decision

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Rarely does a Reserve Bank governor get to remake Australia.
HC “Nugget” Coombs, the first Reserve Bank governor, did.
As director general of the Department of Post-War Reconstruction from 1943, he was instrumental in creating the <a href="https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/47102/3/FromCurtintoKeating2.pdf" target="_blank">White Paper on Full Employment in Australia</a> that was adopted as a guide by prime ministers from Chifley to Menzies to Whitlam.
He ensured the objective of full employment became part of the charter of the Reserve Bank when he became its <a href="https://museum.rba.gov.au/exhibitions/make-your-money-fight/role-of-hc-coombs/" target="_blank">first governor</a> in 1960, moving over from the then government-owned Commonwealth Bank, which had performed the Reserve Bank’s functions up to then.
After once again cutting interest rates to a new record low at a special Reserve Bank board meeting in Darwin on Tuesday, his latest successor Philip Lowe will travel to Yirrkala in Arnhem Land to visit the site where some of the Coombs ashes were buried.
HC Coombs gave us full employment
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282375/original/file-20190702-126369-16qvlv3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282375/original/file-20190702-126369-16qvlv3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
 HC Coombs, Reserve Bank governor 1960-68.<a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:H._C._Coombs.jpg"> </a>
On Tuesday night in Darwin, he <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-07-02" target="_blank">paid tribute</a> to Coombs. He said that in his dual roles as governor of the Reserve Bank and chair of the Council for Aboriginal Affairs, he was a strong advocate for land rights and the preservation of cultural values and traditions.
Another governor who remade Australia was Bernie Fraser, head of the treasury when Prime Minister Paul Keating made him governor of the Reserve Bank in 1989 – shortly before Australia plunged into recession.
He cut rates dramatically from early 1990, as might have been expected in order to bring about a recovery. But then, well before the recovery was complete (and the unemployment rate was still about 10%), he stopped cutting and started pushing rates back up – much to Keating’s displeasure.
Bernie Fraser gave us low inflation
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282374/original/file-20190702-126376-2qkk8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282374/original/file-20190702-126376-2qkk8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
 Bernie Fraser, Reserve Bank governor 1989-96. Lukas Coch/AAP
His rationale appears to have been to salvage something out of the unusual circumstances in which Australia found itself. With inflation on the ropes because of the recession, he decided to keep it there – to squeeze out high inflation forever. With one temporary exception during the introduction of the goods and services tax in 2000 it never again returned to the rates of 5% or more that had been common.
He did it not because of an unusual opportunity, and changed Australia forever.
And so to Philip Lowe, who on Tuesday night in Darwin indicated that he too was taking advantage of an unusual opportunity and would probably change Australia forever.
Until a few years ago, it was thought that Australia’s rate of “full unemployment” – the rate below which unemployment couldn’t stay without stoking inflation – was touch over 5%. As it has fallen to 5% in the past year without stoking either inflation or much-wanted wage growth, the bank has come to revise its view.
It now thinks something has changed and the “full employment” is <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-ag-2019-06-12-2" target="_blank">probably 4.5% or lower</a>, a low that was reached during the peak of the mining boom but hasn’t been sustained since the early 1970s. Aiming for an unemployment rate of 4.5% instead of 5% would get 69,000 more people into work.
Lowe wants unemployment lower
Lowe could have ignored the opportunity to push unemployment down that far, to a low that hasn’t been sustained since the 1970s. Instead, in Darwin on Tuesday night, he embraced the opportunity, saying his board was:
prepared to adjust interest rates again if needed to get us closer to full employment and achieve the inflation target in a way that supports the collective welfare of all Australians
Governor Lowe plans to usher in the lowest unemployment target in half a century. He believes the economy can sustain it. He said several times on Tuesday that he would prefer the government to help out <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-07-02" target="_blank">with infrastructure projects and the like</a>, but if it won’t, he is “prepared to adjust interest rates again if needed to get us closer to full employment”.
He is doing it because the opportunity is there, as did Coombs and Fraser before him.
There’s no telling (yet) how far rates will have to fall to achieve it. Without setting out to, Lowe is remaking Australia.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709" target="_blank">Peter Martin</a>, Visiting Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292" target="_blank">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ultra-low-unemployment-is-in-our-grasp-how-philip-lowe-became-the-governor-who-lifted-our-ambition-119754" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Ultra-low unemployment is in our grasp thanks to Philip Lowe: Peter Martin

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The RBA cut the cash rate to 1% and signalled that they will continue to adjust monetary policy if needed.
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<div>
As we expected, the Reserve Bank Board lowered the cash rate by 25bps to 1.00% at its July meeting. The motivation for this move is very much focussed on the labour market as was clearly indicated by the Governor’s recent speech.
In the decision statement, he pointed out that employment growth has been strong, the labour force participation rate is at a record level, the vacancy rate remains high, and there are reports of skill shortages in some areas. On face value, this would not be consistent with a concern about the labour market. But the Governor is now clearly focussing on spare capacity in the labour market, and that is measured by the unemployment rate, the underemployment rate, and wages growth. He believes that the Australian economy should be making more progress in reducing spare capacity and therefore a lower cash rate is consistent with that belief.
As we highlighted in our report last week, it seems likely that the RBA growth and inflation forecasts for 2020 that will be released in the August Statement on Monetary Policy, which will follow the August Board meeting, will be unchanged from the May forecasts of 2.75% for GDP growth and 2% for underlying inflation. This further emphasises the importance of the labour market in driving the policy response in June and July.
The critical final paragraph in the Governor’s Decision Statement leaves open the possibility of further stimulus. He notes that the Board “will continue to monitor developments in the labour market closely and adjust monetary policy if needed”. However, the degree of urgency that was certainly detected in the Governor’s recent speech and the June Board minutes appears to have eased. Consequently we remain comfortable with our view that there will be no follow up move in August.
Readers will be aware that Westpac was the first forecaster in the Bloomberg survey to call the cash rate below 1% (May 24). We predicted a final cash rate move to 0.75% by November, but highlighted that there were downside risks to 0.75%. Last week, we also noted that with the likely decision to cut in July, these downside risks had intensified. For now, we remain comfortable with our forecast that the next rate cut will occur in November, by which time the growth, inflation and labour market environment will not have improved sufficiently to satisfy the RBA. Indeed, by the November Statement on Monetary Policy, we expect that the RBA will have to lower its growth and inflation forecasts and raise its unemployment forecast for 2020, requiring a further policy response.
Critical issues between now and November will be evidence around the path of the unemployment rate, and the impact of this recent movement in the cash rate on financial conditions and the profile of the Australian dollar. The task of lowering the Australian dollar has recently been impacted by headwinds associated with general rate cuts by other major central banks around the world. However, without the RBA cuts, the Australian dollar may well have unhelpfully lifted.
As we noted last week, the intense focus on the labour market - where monthly updates are available - changes the historic pattern of policy adjustments. This has been exemplified in the June and July movements, and means that every month, certainly out to the end of 2019, will be live for policy. Issues that will also provide the RBA with reasons for caution will be around fiscal policy developments, particularly implications for household disposable income; the response of the housing market to the two rate cuts; and whether the consumer responds to tax cuts and lower rates with a robust spending appetite over the course of the second half of 2019.
Conclusion
When Westpac originally forecast two rate cuts in 2019 back in February, markets were only positioned for one cut by March 2020 and most major forecasters were still calling rates higher or on hold. We are therefore pleased to see that the forecast has proved to be correct. We were also the first forecaster to nominate a terminal cash rate lower than 1% (May 24), and that outlook has now been embraced by the market and most other forecasters. However with policy now in play at every Board meeting between now and the end of the year, uncertainties around specific timing are inevitable.
Our current view of one more cut this year by November has downside risks for potentially two, and developments over the next few months will determine that outcome. If the RBA were to lower the cash rate to 0.5% and still be dissatisfied with the excess spare capacity in the labour market then we expect that they will consider putting pressure on governments to loosen fiscal policy, as well as exploring other alternative policies that the RBA itself can embrace.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

July RBA cut was primarily for the labour market: Westpac's Bill Evans

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Just 10 minutes after the RBA announced they are further dropping the cash rate by 0.25% today, <a href="https://www.athena.com.au/?gclid=Cj0KCQjw5J_mBRDVARIsAGqGLZCKwKfQxKUvNT0g33wrh6Kg2oBRfwJBwNSWn4iuj0nJVqF2uEWWJ6EaAqxjEALw_wcB" target="_blank">Athena</a> home loans announced it will be passing on the full rate cut to both existing and new customers.
Effective immediately, the rate drop brings Athena’s rate down to one of the lowest on the market.
They're offering 3.09% for owner occupiers and 3.49% for investors.
Athena CEO and co-founder, Nathan Walsh said, “the big banks delayed passing on the June RBA rate cut by as much as 21 days, costing Aussie borrowers over $100M. Lenders who failed to pass on the full savings cost customers a further $280M."
Since launching in February this year, Athena claim the average customer switching to them from typical big bank rates is saving more than $50,000 over the life of the loan.
Athena was the first non-bank lender to reduce rates last month as well.
The Sydney based online lender announced a new headline variable rate for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest of 3.34 per cent p.a. within 15 minutes of the June RBA decision.
Athena only entered the home loan market this year.
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Athena home loans match the full RBA cut again 

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.00 per cent. This follows a similar reduction at the Board's June meeting. This easing of monetary policy will support employment growth and provide greater confidence that inflation will be consistent with the medium-term target.
The outlook for the global economy remains reasonable. However, the uncertainty generated by the trade and technology disputes is affecting investment and means that the risks to the global economy are tilted to the downside. In most advanced economies, inflation remains subdued, unemployment rates are low and wages growth has picked up. The slowdown in global trade has contributed to slower growth in Asia. In China, the authorities have taken steps to support the economy, while continuing to address risks in the financial system.
Global financial conditions remain accommodative. The persistent downside risks to the global economy combined with subdued inflation have led to expectations of easing of monetary policy by the major central banks. Long-term government bond yields have declined further and are at record lows in a number of countries, including Australia. Bank funding costs in Australia have also declined, with money-market spreads having fully reversed the increases that took place last year. Borrowing rates for both businesses and households are at historically low levels. The Australian dollar is at the low end of its narrow range of recent times.
Over the year to the March quarter, the Australian economy grew at a below-trend 1.8 per cent. Consumption growth has been subdued, weighed down by a protracted period of low income growth and declining housing prices. Increased investment in infrastructure is providing an offset and a pick-up in activity in the resources sector is expected, partly in response to an increase in the prices of Australia's exports. The central scenario for the Australian economy remains reasonable, with growth around trend expected. The main domestic uncertainty continues to be the outlook for consumption, although a pick-up in growth in household disposable income is expected to support spending.
Employment growth has continued to be strong. Labour force participation is at a record level, the vacancy rate remains high and there are reports of skills shortages in some areas. There has, however, been little inroad into the spare capacity in the labour market recently, with the unemployment rate having risen slightly to 5.2 per cent. The strong employment growth over the past year or so has led to a pick-up in wages growth in the private sector, although overall wages growth remains low. A further gradual lift in wages growth is still expected and this would be a welcome development. Taken together, these labour market outcomes suggest that the Australian economy can sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment.
Inflation pressures remain subdued across much of the economy. Inflation is still, however, anticipated to pick up, and will be boosted in the June quarter by increases in petrol prices. The central scenario remains for underlying inflation to be around 2 per cent in 2020 and a little higher after that.
Conditions in most housing markets remain soft, although there are some tentative signs that prices are now stabilising in Sydney and Melbourne. Growth in housing credit has also stabilised recently. Demand for credit by investors continues to be subdued and credit conditions, especially for small and medium-sized businesses, remain tight. Mortgage rates are at record lows and there is strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality.
Today's decision to lower the cash rate will help make further inroads into the spare capacity in the economy. It will assist with faster progress in reducing unemployment and achieve more assured progress towards the inflation target. The Board will continue to monitor developments in the labour market closely and adjust monetary policy if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Tenatative signs Sydney and Melbourne prices stabilising: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's July 2019 meeting statement

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The RBA have decided to cut rates by 25 basis points for the second time in as many months, bringing the cash rate to a historic low one percent.
The RBA had left the cash rate on hold for nearly three years at a record low 1.5% before cutting it to 1.25% last month.
It's the first time the RBA have cut rates in back to back months for the first time in over a decade.
It was 2008 when it was slashed at five consecutive meetings from 7.25% in August to 3.25% in February of 2009.
CoreLogic research analyst Cameron Kusher says the prospect of another interest rate cut had risen over June. 
"The likelihood of an interest rate cut had been rising throughout June, particularly since the weak GDP reading in early June and following RBA Governor Phil Lowe’s speech which indicated that a single 25 basis point cut to rates (which was delivered last month) was unlikely to shift the path that we are on," Kusher said.
"In fact, the ongoing slowing of the rate of decline in dwelling values throughout 2019 and the recent uptick in Sydney and Melbourne dwelling values, would likely have reduced concerns of further wealth erosion from housing. 
"Furthermore, the 25 basis point cut in June along with the cut today and the likelihood of reduced serviceability buffers from APRA are likely to be further positives for the housing market and encourage an ongoing gradual levelling in the housing downturn nationally.  
"Despite these positives, the introduction of the Banking Code of Conduct and the expansion of Comprehensive Credit Reporting from the beginning of July will ensure that although taking out a mortgage may become a little easier, the scrutiny on loan applications will remain significantly greater than it has been in the past.  
"Given this, the expectation is that a recovery in housing market conditions is likely to be slow and gradual despite lower interest rates.  
"No doubt attention will now turn to mortgage rates and how much of the cash rate cut will be passed through to mortgages. 
"Our expectation is that banks will be holding back on passing on the full cut as they seek to balance out mortgage rates with deposit rates and protect net interest margins. 
Over a third of experts and economists in Finder's RBA survey predicted the July cut.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said last month’s cut – the first change to the cash rate in almost three years – was perhaps too small to make the desired impact.
“The objective is to lower unemployment, boost wage growth and push inflation back to target. It’s clear that one cut isn’t enough.
“Frankly, two cuts might not be either, but it’s a step in the right direction and it’s great news for homeowners. It’s two down and maybe one or two more to go.
“On an average mortgage, if your bank passes on both rate cuts in full – that is a 50 basis point reduction – you could be saving almost $42,000 over 30-years.”
<img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/07c8c05c-6357-453a-8fce-d19df3afb60e.png" width="563" height="391"> 
<div>Mortgage Choice's Jacqueline Dearle predicted the cut and said, should they be passed on, they’ll give the property market a nudge in the right direction.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>“[A cut will be] great for first home buyers and property investors but the fall in official interest rates will not be so welcome to those Australians with cash savings in the banks, who may see their returns diminish if the banks trim back their rates further from the current average rate of 1.4%,” Dearle said. </div>
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<div> </div>
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RBA cuts rates again at the July meeting

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Nearly a third of experts and economists surveyed in Finder.com.au's RBA Cash Rate Survey predict the RBA to bring the official cash rate all the way down to 0.5 percent.
Just over 70% of experts predict the bottom of the cycle at 0.75%.
The numbers are more convincing in favour of a rate cut in July, with 68% tipping a second cash rate cut in as many months.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said lenders should be gearing up to get busy with further rate reductions. “The RBA will have its scissors out for the foreseeable future to try to stimulate inflation and reduce unemployment, and lenders should be ready to follow suit. “The heat is on for those banks who only passed on a partial rate cut (less than 25 basis points) after the June rate reduction.
"Doing the right thing by their customers this time around – by passing on a cut in its entirety – could see them redeem themselves,” he said.
“So far, we’ve seen more than 700 variable rate products reduced in June alone, with more than 1,000 rates reduced if you include fixed rate loans. 
Across all of the variable rates Finder compares, the average rate has dropped more than 20 basis points in June. “The winners here are borrowers – they are spoilt for choice with the lowest home loan rates we’ve ever seen,” he said.  Currently, the lowest variable home loan rate on the market is 3.09% from Reduce Home Loans, while some banks (UBank and Greater Bank), are offering a one year fixed rate of 2.99%. 
It was only late last year that nearly 80% of economists thought the next cash rate would be a hike.
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/Economists%20RBA%20predictions%20Finder.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/Economists%20RBA%20predictions%20Finder.jpg" alt="">
Finder research suggests two further cuts, the most popular forecast for the rest of 2019, would see a variable rate mortgage holder with a loan of $1 million save $3,538 a year.
“If the cash rate does get to 0.50%, down from 1.50% in May, and your bank were to pass on all of the four rate cuts in full, an average mortgage holder* could be saving nearly $3,000 a year on their mortgage,” Cooke said. “Of course you don’t have to wait around for these cuts to happen – you can go home loan shopping for a better deal anytime.  “It’s a borrower’s market. A new standard has been set with sub-3% home loan rates so compare options to maximise your savings in the long run.” 
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/Finder%20RBA%20mortgage%20savings.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/Finder%20RBA%20mortgage%20savings.jpg" alt="">
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Official cash rate on its way to 0.5%, says one third of Finder's RBA Survey experts

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The RBA could cut the cash rate again as early as Tuesday however it’s unlikely the big four banks will pass it on in full, according to comparison site RateCity.com.au.
RateCity.com.au drew comparison to when the RBA cut the cash rate in May 2016, the big banks, with the exception of ANZ, passed on the full 0.25 per cent to their variable rate customers.
However, when the RBA cut again just three months later, not one of the big banks passed it on in full.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/1/Passing%20the%20cut%201.JPG" alt="">
 
RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said the big banks are increasingly finding themselves in a rock and a hard place.
“The RBA is now ready and willing to cut the cash rate. They’ve also made it very clear the banks should pass on these cuts to their variable home loan customers." 
“But the closer the cash rate gets to zero, the more banks will start feeling wedged." 
“Wholesale funding costs might have come down, but banks are trying to juggle deposit rates, lending rates, business costs and profit margins in what is an incredibly sluggish credit market."
“What’s been really interesting is that while hundreds of thousands of existing mortgage holders missed out on a full cut last month, competition for new business is actually intensifying."
“Last month we saw the lowest rate on the market for new customers fall from 3.44 per cent to 3.09 per cent – a drop of 0.35 per cent, 0.10 per cent more than what the RBA delivered."
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/1/Passing%20the%20cut%202.JPG" alt=""> 
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Why the banks probably won't pass on the next full RBA cut: RateCity

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EXPERT OBSERVER
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We have decided to bring forward the timing of the next RBA rate cut from August to July.
We are surprised that we have to do this, given that a pause between cuts might have allowed for a smoother transmission process but cannot deny the explicit signals provided in the Governor’s more recent speech.
This includes: that it would “… be unrealistic to expect that lowering interest rates by ¼ of a percentage point will materially shift the path we look to be on”; that “the possibility of lower rates remains on the table”; and that it “is not unrealistic to expect a further reduction in the cash rate.”
These are early days for interpreting this Governor’s language at a time when policy is active. However based on our experience with other central bankers, this language is direct. As such, we now expect a cut in July that will substitute for the move we had originally expected in August.
This will complete the two cuts we originally forecast on February 21 when markets were priced for only one cut by March 2020. The timing however is somewhat earlier than we anticipated back in February.
It was reasonable to expect that the Bank would lower its growth and inflation forecasts in the August Statement on Monetary Policy and acknowledge that decision by cutting in August. However it now appears that, based on the Governor’s speech, he may decide to hold steady on the May growth and inflation forecasts.
In particular, the Governor stressed that the decision to cut in June “was not in response to a deterioration in the economic outlook since the previous update was published in early May”. Note that the May forecasts were conditioned on market pricing which included two rate cuts by the end of 2019. With those cuts set to be delivered the August forecast update will also benefit from markets pricing in a further rate cut to 0.75% by the end of 2019. The wording in the Statement in August will probably include something along the lines of “having already cut rates twice”.
Readers will recall that on May 24 Westpac forecast a terminal rate in November of 0.75%. This was ahead of all major forecasters (Bloomberg survey May 24) and market pricing. Although the Bank may decide to hold its growth and inflation forecasts steady in the August Statement on Monetary Policy we do not expect it to be possible to sustain this view through to November.
Westpac expects growth of 2.2% in 2019 and underlying inflation of 1.4%. Official forecasts more in line with those estimates are likely by November meaning it will not be possible to credibly lower the Bank’s unemployment rate forecast, which currently stands at 5%, well above the 4.5% level now assessed as full employment. That combination means a further rate cut would be appropriate.
When we released the May 24 forecast we noted that the risk to the rate view was to the downside with a potential terminal rate of 0.5% possible. We remain comfortable with the 0.75% target but recognise that given the current official intense focus on lowering the unemployment rate these downside risks have increased.
The focus on the unemployment rate also raises prospects for less predictable timing of the rate cut decision. In previous cycles growth and inflation and changes to associated forecasts have dominated the timing of decisions with most rate cuts timed for February, May, August and November.
As we expect to see in July, that timing has changed because updates on the labour market are available monthly rather than quarterly. Accordingly it is possible that our November target date for the rate cut after July is more flexible than in previous cycles.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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RBA's next rate cut will be July: Westpac's Bill Evans

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The NAB have changed their forecast for the next official interest rate cut, bringing it forward from August to July
"We do not see a need for the Board to wait," NAB economists said.
They cited RBA Governor Philip Lowe's recent speech at CEDA where he said we're not making any in roads.
“The most recent data – including the GDP and labour market data – do not suggest we are making any inroads into the economy’s spare capacity ... [and] it is not unrealistic to expect a further reduction in the cash rate as the Board seeks to wind back spare capacity ... and deliver inflation outcomes in line with the medium-term target.”
The NAB say they see a strong case for the Reserve Bank to do even more on policy and expect another cut to 0.75% in November.
"The Governor is still making the case that lower rates are directed at reducing spare capacity in the labour market rather than responding to deterioration in the economy," NAB said.
"We disagree, believing there is a more pressing need to deliver stimulus given the economy has lost some momentum and reflecting our weaker economic outlook.
"In brief, the RBA is behind the curve and needs to catch up quickly."
 
 
 
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NAB bring forecast forward, now predict RBA cut in July

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GUEST OBSERVER
I've very much enjoyed reading James Glynn in my Wall Street Journal app this year, as one of the most informed commentators on Aussie monetary policy.
<div>Always straight to the point and almost unerringly accurate. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yesterday in Glynn's take he argued that there's no point in the Reserve Bank delaying action, calling for another rate cut in July to an official cash rate of 1 per cent, followed by a possible further salvo of cuts towards the end of the year. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kaxsG_b0V7s/XQnH5T_9v4I/AAAAAAAAwiU/uGam_SV7oQUZZyWYprmIuhBy5RBK4-mOACLcBGAs/s640/JG.jpg" width="640" height="132" data-original-height="153" data-original-width="736"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Today's skilled job advertisements figures did little to dispel the notion, with another decline in May taking the trend year-on-year decline out to 6 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gCDidzrgTm0/XQnH5cjH_UI/AAAAAAAAwig/c2FdekaHDCATavQQd6jYrg8CphWXZmFkwCEwYBhgL/s640/DOE.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="790" data-original-width="1377"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There were year-on-year declines across each of the three main states, and in 7 of the 8 major occupational groups. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's been some growth in white collar and professionals vacancies, but tellingly the construction and trades ads have dropped away sharply. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thus the strong jobs recovery rather looks set to die on its, erm, feet. As the Aussie dollar scrabbles around at decade lows, benchmark iron ore spot prices have ballooned to multi-year highs across all the major grades. <div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-a6d3QotflxE/XQqd1spJ-vI/AAAAAAAAwjA/jI6_2cVIFakyjy2d2QeQvSTMAJnSekQfwCLcBGAs/s640/IO.jpg" width="640" height="358" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1430"></div>
 I wanna see the receipts!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.  </div>
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