Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

&nbsp;

Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.

The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.

The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.

The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]

Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.

Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.

Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]

Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.

“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.

“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”

“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.” 
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]

The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.

Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.

The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.

The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]

Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.

“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.

“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”

A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.

That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.

The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]

According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.

Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.

The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.

The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.

That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.

The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]

The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.

“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.

“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”

The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]

Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.

The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.

Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]

Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.

Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.

“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.

He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.

“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.

“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.

Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.

Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.

Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.

The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]

Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more international and domestic flights.

Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.

Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.

The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.

The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" />

According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”

The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.

The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.

Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.

“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.

The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.

The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" />

The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.

“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.

According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.

“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.

“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”

The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.

Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.

&nbsp;

The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" />

St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.

Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.

The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.

More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.

First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

Rba Rate Decision

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Our central forecast is for the Australian economy to expand by 2½ per cent this year and 2¾ per cent over 2020.
The growth forecast for this year has been revised down since we met six months ago, but the forecast for next year is unchanged.
The downward revision this year mainly reflects weak consumption growth.
It has become increasingly clear that the extended period of unusually slow growth in household incomes has been weighing on household spending, as has the adjustment in the housing market.
Given this experience, the outlook for consumption continues to be the main domestic source of forecast uncertainty.
Even so, looking ahead, there are signs the economy may have reached a gentle turning point.
Consistent with this, we are expecting the quarterly GDP growth outcomes to strengthen gradually after a run of disappointing numbers.
This outlook is supported by a number of developments including: lower interest rates, the recent tax cuts, a depreciation of the Australian dollar, a brighter outlook for investment in the resources sector, some stabilisation of the housing market and ongoing high levels of investment in infrastructure.
It is reasonable to expect that, together, these factors will see growth in the Australian economy return to around its trend rate next year.
The major uncertainty continues to be the trade and technology disputes between the United States and China. These disputes pose a significant risk to the global economy. Not only are they disrupting trade flows, but they are also generating considerable uncertainty for many businesses around the world.
Worryingly, this uncertainty is leading to investment plans being postponed or reconsidered. It is also now generating volatility in financial markets and has increased the prospects of monetary easing in many countries. This means that we have a lot riding on these disputes being resolved.
Turning now to the Australian labour market, the unemployment rate, at 5.2 per cent, is a little higher than when we met six months ago. This is despite employment growth having been stronger than we had expected. What has happened is that increased demand for labour has been met with more labour supply, especially by women and older Australians.
Reflecting this, a higher share of the Australian adult population is participating in the labour market than ever before. This is good news. But one side-effect of this flexibility of labour supply is that it is harder to generate a tight labour market and so, in turn, it is harder to generate a material lift in aggregate wages growth.
Looking forward, while some slowing in employment growth is expected, the central scenario is for the unemployment rate to move lower to reach 5 per cent again in 2021. If things evolve in line with this central scenario, it is probable that we will still have spare capacity in the labour market for a while yet, especially taking into account underemployment.
This means that the upward pressure on wages growth over the next couple of years is likely to be only quite modest, and less than we were earlier expecting.
Caps on wages growth in public sectors right across the country are another factor contributing to the subdued wage outcomes. At the aggregate level, my view is that a further pick-up in wages growth is both affordable and desirable.
Turning now to inflation, the June quarter outcome was broadly in line with expectations, after a run of lower-than-expected numbers in earlier quarters. Over the year to June, inflation was 1.6 per cent, in both headline and underlying terms, extending the period over which inflation has been below the 2–3 per cent medium-term target range.
The Reserve Bank Board remains committed to having inflation return to this range, but it is taking longer than earlier expected.
There are a few factors that I would highlight as contributing to the low inflation outcome over the past year.
\These are: the slow growth in wages; the ongoing spare capacity in the economy; various government initiatives to address cost-of-living pressures on households; and the adjustment in the housing market, which has contributed to unusually low increases in rents and declines in the price of building a new home in some cities.
Working in the other direction, the drought and the depreciation of the exchange rate have been pushing some prices up.
Looking ahead, inflation is still expected to pick up, but the date at which it is expected to be back at 2 per cent has been pushed out again. Over 2020, inflation is forecast to be a little under 2 per cent and over 2021 it is expected to be a little above 2 per cent.
These comments were made during the <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-08-09" target="_blank">opening statement</a> to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics.
PHILIP LOWE is the current Governor of the RBA
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Australian economy may have reached a gentle turning point: Philip Lowe

<html><body>
The RBA kept rates on hold at the August meeting, following back to back rate cuts to bring the official cash rate down to a record low one percent.
It had previously stood at a historic low 1.5% before the latest cuts. The rate hadn't been cut since August 2016 when it was brought down from 1.75%.
Today the RBA have released their chart pack, which highlights key factors in the Australian economy.
Property Observer takes a look at four key charts which will have been strong influencers in the decision to cut the official interest rate.
Consumer Price Inflation ticked up slightly
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/8/Consumer%20Price%20Inflation%20RBA.jpg" alt="">
Australia's Consumer Price Index rose 0.6 percent over the June quarter, slightly higher than expectations. 
The CPI rose 1.6 per cent through the year to the June quarter 2019, after increasing 1.3 per cent through the year to the March quarter.
Westpac had been <a href="/expert-insights/investing/cpi-forecast-to-rise-for-june-quarter-westpacs-justin-smirk">forecasting a 0.5% rise</a> in the June quarter CPI, taking the annual pace to a 1.5% rise from 1.3%.
IFM economist Alex Joiner says the figures were a slight upside surprise, however it is inline with expectations on core measures. 
Household disposable income rose slightly, but it's not translating into increased consumption yet.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/8/Household%20Income%20and%20Consumption%20RBA.jpg" alt="">
Disposable income has bucked its steady, ongoing decline after it nearly hit 0%. 
Consumption has carried on declining, but the RBA will be keen to see disposable income rise given the recent rate cuts.
Consumer sentiment continues to rise
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/8/Consumer%20sentiment%20RBA.jpg" alt="">
Consumer sentiment continued its upward trend following the federal election outcome having dipped below the average index earlier in the year.
It is now equalling, and bettering, levels in boom time 2015 and 2016.
Housing prices starts to rebound.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/8/Housing%20Prices%20RBA.jpg" alt="">
House prices have started to stabilise after a long downward trend which saw them approach 10% declines.
Statistics from the ABS, APM, Residex and CoreLogic all show a turnaround.
To download the full chart pack in full, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/pdf/chart-pack.pdf?v=2019-08-08-09-10-56" target="_blank">click here</a>.
 
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The four charts that prompted the RBA keep rates on hold in August

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
The RBA remained on hold at a record low cash rate of 1% at its August board meeting as widely expected. This followed 0.25% rate cuts in June and July.
The Bank’s post meeting statement was dovish:
<ul type="disc">
<li>referring to the downside risks to global growth from the trade war;</li>
<li>revising down yet again its GDP growth forecast to around 2.5% for this year (from 2.75%);</li>
<li>noting that wages growth remains subdued with little upwards pressure; and</li>
<li>indicating that inflation will take longer than earlier expected to reach 2%.</li>
</ul>
The final paragraph repeated Governor Lowe’s recently used forward guidance to expect an “extended period of low interest rates” and noted that the Board stands ready to ease monetary policy again if needed, indicating that the Bank retains an easing bias.
For now the RBA is in wait and see mode – basically waiting to see what sort of boost to growth the rate cuts of June and July and the Federal Government’s tax cuts for low and middle income earners provide.  Baring a shock to the economy this is likely to remain the case for a few months.
However, while the rate cuts seen so far and the Federal Government’s tax cuts will help, we see unemployment drifting up to around 5.5% by year end in contrast to the RBA’s expectation for a fall to around 5% over the next couple of years. The stimulus to date won’t be enough to get wages growth up and inflation back to target and so we expect the RBA to resume cutting rate later this year with 0.25% cuts in each of November and February.
Help from more fiscal stimulus and structural reforms is needed but this will take time to come through and impact the economy so the pressure remains on the RBA in the short term. And the escalating US/China trade war adds to this pressure to the extent that it threatens demand for Australian exports and business confidence locally.
DR SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital.
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RBA on hold but expect cash rate of 0.5% by February 2020

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has made the decision to leave the nation’s official cash rate unchanged at 1.00%.
The Reserve Bank’s decision to hold the cash rate steady this month was prudent. A third cut so soon after two consecutive cuts in June and July would not have given policy makers enough time to see if the cuts had any marked effect on the economy.
The latest economic data has provided the Reserve Bank with no incentive to reduce the cash rate three times in as many months, encouraging the Bank to continue its historically cautious approach towards monetary policy.
In encouraging news for the housing market, the latest CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index revealed that national dwelling values stabilised in July as five of the eight capital cities recorded a rise, supported by a 0.2% increase in values in both Sydney and Melbourne.
It seems that two consecutive cuts to the cash rate, and tax relief from the Government were not enough to improve consumer outlook. The Westpac Melbourne Institute of Consumer Sentiment revealed that consumer sentiment deteriorated in July, as concerns over the economy continue to weigh heavily on sentiment. On a positive note, the index revealed that housing-related sentiment improved in response to lower interest rates.
The latest monthly business survey from the National Australia Bank revealed that business confidence fell over June and while business conditions rose, they remain well below average. The survey also revealed that outlook for business conditions over the next few months is weak, which may put further downward pressure on the labour market going forward.
In the minutes of its July Board meeting, RBA board members suggested they continue to track developments in the labour market. Members agreed that the Australian economy could sustain a lower rate of unemployment, while achieving inflation consistent with the target.
Given that the unemployment rate remained steady at 5.2% in the ABS’ most recent Labour Force Survey, the RBA may not have felt another cut was necessary at this time. That being said, the inflation rate came in under the RBA’s expectations once more, with June quarter figures revealing a CPI quarterly percentage change of 0.6% and a year ended percentage change of 1.6%, well below the RBA’s target range of 2-3%. While financial markets are expecting another 25 basis point cut this year, the important thing for borrowers and future borrowers alike to keep in mind is that interest rates are currently sitting at historic lows. I would encourage anyone thinking of buying a home or investment property to speak to their local Mortgage Choice mortgage broker to learn what their borrowing power is and what home loan options are available to them. Mortgage Choice brokers can assess your financial situation, and help you get home buying ready. With access to a panel of over 25 lenders, with varied lending policies and preferences, we can help borrowers get the most suitable deal for their circumstances, whatever the cash rate.
SUSAN MITCHELL is the Mortgage Choice CEO
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RBA hits pause in August: Mortgage Choice's Susan Mitchell

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.00 per cent.
The outlook for the global economy remains reasonable. However, the increased uncertainty generated by the trade and technology disputes is affecting investment and means that the risks to the global economy remain tilted to the downside. In most advanced economies, unemployment rates are low and wages growth has picked up, although inflation remains low. The slowdown in global trade has contributed to slower growth in Asia. In China, the authorities have taken steps to support the economy, while continuing to address risks in the financial system.
Global financial conditions remain accommodative. The persistent downside risks to the global economy combined with subdued inflation have led a number of central banks to reduce interest rates this year and further monetary easing is widely expected. Long-term government bond yields have declined further and are at record lows in many countries, including Australia. Borrowing rates for both businesses and households are also at historically low levels. The Australian dollar is at its lowest level of recent times.
Economic growth in Australia over the first half of this year has been lower than earlier expected, with household consumption weighed down by a protracted period of low income growth and declining housing prices. Looking forward, growth in Australia is expected to strengthen gradually from here. The central scenario is for the Australian economy to grow by around 2½ per cent over 2019 and 2¾ per cent over 2020. The outlook is being supported by the low level of interest rates, recent tax cuts, ongoing spending on infrastructure, signs of stabilisation in some housing markets and a brighter outlook for the resources sector. The main domestic uncertainty continues to be the outlook for consumption, although a pick-up in growth in household disposable income and a stabilisation of the housing market are expected to support spending.
Employment has grown strongly over recent years and labour force participation is at a record high. There has, however, been little inroad into the spare capacity in the labour market recently, with the unemployment rate having risen slightly to 5.2 per cent. The unemployment rate is expected to decline over the next couple of years to around 5 per cent. Wages growth remains subdued and there is little upward pressure at present, with strong labour demand being met by more supply. Caps on wages growth are also affecting public-sector pay outcomes across the country. A further gradual lift in wages growth would be a welcome development. Taken together, recent labour market outcomes suggest that the Australian economy can sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment.
The recent inflation data were broadly as expected and confirmed that inflation pressures remain subdued across much of the economy. Over the year to the June quarter, inflation was 1.6 per cent in both headline and underlying terms. The central scenario remains for inflation to increase gradually, but it is likely to take longer than earlier expected for inflation to return to 2 per cent. In both headline and underlying terms, inflation is expected to be a little under 2 per cent over 2020 and a little above 2 per cent over 2021.
Conditions in most housing markets remain soft, although there are some signs of a turnaround, especially in Sydney and Melbourne. Growth in housing credit remains low. Demand for credit by investors continues to be subdued and credit conditions, especially for small and medium-sized businesses, remain tight. Mortgage rates are at record lows and there is strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality.
It is reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required in Australia to make progress in reducing unemployment and achieve more assured progress towards the inflation target. The Board will continue to monitor developments in the labour market closely and ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time.
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Most housing markets remain soft: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's August 2019 meeting statement

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The RBA has held the cash rate at a record low one percent at its August meeting.
The decision follows slightly <a href="/expert-insights/investing/cpi-rises-0-6-percent-in-june-quarter">higher inflation than predicted</a> for Q2 2019.
RBA Governor Philip Lowe said most housing markets remain soft, although there are some signs of a turnaround, especially in Sydney and Melbourne.
CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless says the decision to hold the cash rate was expected.
"The pause in the cutting cycle will give the RBA time to assess the effects of earlier rate cuts on the economy and consumer spending, however there is a strong likelihood of at least one more cut later this year," Lawless says.
"The housing market has been a key beneficiary of lower mortgage rates, with a trend towards stability over the first half of the year converting to a subtle rise in capital city housing values in July. 
"With mortgage rates set to remain low for an extended period of time, as flagged by RBA Governor Lowe in a speech last month, and potentially move even lower later this year, we are expecting to see the housing market move into a gradual recovery, however with credit policies remaining tight and economic uncertainty still elevated, we aren’t expecting a material acceleration in housing activity or housing values."
Finder's latest RBA Survey found that economists and experts predicted small gains across every capital city market.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said it's too soon to tell if this is an emerging recovery in the housing market or merely a 'dead-cat bounce'.
“In finance, the saying is that even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from great heights," Cooke says.
“Most economists surveyed foresee small levels of growth across the board, but a few tipped prices to tumble, especially in Sydney and Melbourne where one expert predicted a 7% drop.
“Whether you see this as a falling feline or the beginning of a true rebound, it’s clear that the full effects of the RBA’s recent cuts have yet to play out.
<img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/881b878c-2e84-4824-9ea6-abb2854b4aa9.png" width="610" height="443">
“However, after one of the strongest weekend clearance rates in Sydney in recent months (71%), there is definitely a detectable pulse,” Cooke said.
Canberra is expected to be the best performer with 2.27% gains. Sydney and Melbourne are looking at 1.48% and $1.57% gains respectively.
Cooke said those considering getting on the property ladder need to get their ducks in a row.
“Prospective first time buyers should look at arranging pre<a href="https://finder.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499&amp;id=72671b9013&amp;e=f2176dbcf8" target="_blank">-</a>approval for finance soon if they want to take advantage of low rates before prices increase.”
<div><img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/2027eefe-611e-46ff-974f-dd622ad3779f.png" width="613" height="445"></div>
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RBA holds rates after two consecutive cuts

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to return to a holding pattern, leaving the cash rate at 1.00%, according to the latest survey data from Finder.com.au.
In the latest Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey™ 44 of the 46 experts and economists (96%) predict the board will hold at the August meeting to let the June and July cuts trickle through the economy.
Almost all experts (92%, 38) expect the next cash rate move will be a cut. Nearly half (49%, 21) are predicting a final low of 0.50%, while a third (35%, 15) tip believe it will bottom out at 0.75%.
But the holding pattern may not last long; the most popular months cited for another cash rate cut are November (35%, 17) followed by October (23%, 11).
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said with the effects of recent cuts still unrealised, the board is hesitant to cut in three consecutive months.
“The jury’s out on the impact of these most recent cuts – it’s simply too soon to tell.
“Economists feel slightly more confident that recent cuts will have a positive effect on the economy once given time to roll out. While positivity is generally still low, housing affordability remains the most positive economic element.” 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/5/Finder%20-%20August%206%20-%201.JPG" alt="">
“The falling cash rate combined with falling house prices creates a catch-22 for Aussies looking to break into the property market. Buyers will be wanting to take advantage of historically low rates, but also wanting to purchase at the bottom of the market.”
Despite US rate cut, economists are focused on China When asked to indicate their two main economic concerns for Australia right now, decisions by the Federal Reserve in the US ranked towards the bottom of the list, being cited by just three economists (5%).
(Note: some responses were submitted just before the first US cash rate cut since 2008, which saw its lending rate fall to 2.25%.)
Instead, (27%, cited by 17 respondents) experts tipped international relations like the fate of US-China Trade Deal and Australian-Chinese trade in general (14%, 9) as massive concerns for the economy, above issues like unemployment, inflation and housing prices.
“What’s happening between China, Australia and the US right now could have far more potential impact on Australia than the Fed Reserve,” Cooke said.
“If the US and China can finally agree on a trade deal, this may result in US imports replacing Australian ones in some Chinese sectors.
“With Australian beef and dairy being particularly strong trade commodities in this space right now, such a deal could be bad for Aussie farmers, and ultimately our economy.”
Peter Boehm of KVB Kunlun said domestic concerns are just part of the equation.
“The impact of international trade negotiations will also play an important role in determining the need or otherwise for another rate adjustment.”
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/5/Finder%20-%20August%206%20-%202.JPG" alt="">
Results from Finder’s Economic Sentiment Tracker™, which gauges five key indicators – housing affordability, employment, wage growth, cost of living and household debt – show nearly all tipped more positive this month following the second rate cut.
Introduced in March 2018, this month’s tracker set an all-time low for economic sentiment in cost of living (3%).
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Cash rate will hold meanwhile concerns over China-US relations grow

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The RBA meets on August 6 and releases the Statement on Monetary Policy on August 9. We think it is quite unlikely that the Board will decide to do a third consecutive cut at this meeting but remain comfortable with our view that the RBA will deliver additional 25bps cuts in October and February.
The Reserve Bank Board meets on August 6 to consider whether to extend the sequence of rate cuts in June and July for another month.
We think it is quite unlikely that the Board will decide to do a third consecutive cut at this meeting.
Following the cut in July, the Governor noted, “The Board will continue to monitor developments in the labour market closely and adjust monetary policy if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time".
That statement compared with the June statement, “The Board will continue to monitor developments in the labour market closely and adjust monetary policy to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time".
The inclusion of the term “if needed” in the July statement indicates that the level of urgency for the next cut is lower in July than it was in June – implying that some time would be required to assess whether another cut was needed.
I wrote at the time of the release of the July Board minutes: “my experience is that when a central bank decides to pause, it often refers back to previous policy decisions. In the final paragraph of the July minutes, the Board notes “this decision, together with the reduction in the cash rate decided at the previous meeting, would assist in reducing spare capacity in the economy”.
Finally it is worth recalling the final paragraph of the speech which the Governor delivered after the Darwin Board meeting in July when he noted: “So we will be closely monitoring how things evolve over coming months.” The use of the plural (months) seems to be confirmation that there would be no urgency to move as soon as August.
On July 25th, we revised our forecast of the timing of the next rate cut from November to October. In addition we extended the easing cycle to include another, and final, cut, in February next year. We remain comfortable with that view.
The Governor’s Statement next week will be of interest particularly around whether he is planning to move as soon as September. Here we will certainly be interested in whether he persists with the “if needed” qualification. We favour that term still being used implying that, at least at the time of the meeting, the Board expects to hold fire in September.
Other themes will be consistent with the July statement are: strong employment growth but spare capacity in the labour market; housing conditions soft, although tentative signs of stabilisation in Sydney and Melbourne (CoreLogic reported house prices in Sydney and Melbourne lifted by 0.2% in July); inflation pressures subdued, although the central scenario remaining for trimmed mean inflation to be 2% in 2020; and the central scenario remaining for growth to be around trend.
These themes will give us an early signal of the revised forecasts for growth, inflation and unemployment which will be released with the August Statement on Monetary Policy on August 9. These forecasts are critical for gauging the Bank’s approach to policy and he will be testifying to Parliament that same morning.
Recall that when the last set of forecasts was released in May, the RBA forecast GDP growth at 2.75% in both 2019 and 2020. That is a benign outlook given that “trend” is assessed as 2.75%. However it is going to be difficult to credibly maintain the 2019 growth forecast at 2.75%.
Since the May Forecasts were released, GDP growth in the March quarter printed a low 0.4% and the partials for the June quarter are pointing to around 0.5%. A 0.9% read for the first half of the year requires 0.9% quarterly increases in each of the last two quarters.
Now we acknowledge that the second half of 2019 will be stronger than the first half with the benefits of the rate cuts, tax cuts, stabilising of the housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne, and lower AUD; but we certainly do not see growth lifting to an annualised pace outside 2.5-3.0%. It is most likely that the RBA will choose the 3% pace and lower the forecast for GDP growth in 2019 to 2.5% from 2.75%. That would provide a credible base for retaining the 2.75% forecast in 2020. We see the pace at nearer 2.5% in 2019 H2, ultimately pushing the RBA's forecast for 2019 back to 2.25% and 2020 to around 2.5%.
The June quarter Inflation Report provided the RBA with some welcome news. The trimmed mean inflation rate for the quarter printed 0.42%, above the Westpac forecast of 0.3%. This followed a 0.3% in the March quarter. We detected a stronger than expected pass through in clothing, footwear, household goods and cars from the low AUD.
With 0.3% in Q1 followed by 0.42% in Q2, the RBA can, with a large stretch, retain its forecast for the trimmed mean of 1.75% for 2019, making a drift up to 2% in 2020 a reasonable outcome. We expect the trimmed mean in the September quarter to print 0.3% for a rounded 1.5% for 2019. The RBA is likely to confront that reality for the November Statement, forcing it to delay the return of the trimmed mean inflation rate to 2% in 2021. For now, it will most likely continue to declare that trimmed mean inflation will be back within the 2-3% band in 2020.
So far, so good, but the unemployment rate forecast is likely to be a major problem for the RBA. Recall that in May, it forecast the unemployment rate to hold at 5.0% through 2019 and 2020. Unfortunately the rate for June has lifted to 5.24% against a May SOMP forecast of 5.0%. The problem is compounded by the 'rule-of-thumb' amongst economists that above trend growth is required to lower the unemployment rate. At best, the RBA will be forecasting trend growth in 2020, challenging any forecast that the unemployment rate will fall from the current 5.25%.
It will be this tension with the unemployment rate, which we expect to lift to 5.4% by year’s end that will trigger that 0.25% rate cut in October.
This problem will be further complicated for the RBA by market pricing. The forecasts in May already incorporated the two rate cuts in June and July (although markets were envisaging the cuts to come later in the year). The forecasts in August will incorporate a further cut in October (market pricing) and a near full second cut by mid-2020.
If, as we expect, those forecasts will be barely acceptable for growth and inflation and well below the RBA’s “desired” 4.5% for the unemployment rate, then the very least that the RBA can do is to deliver a 25bp October cut and plan to repeat the dose in 2020 H1.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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RBA to hold in August but further cuts forecast in 2019 and early 2020: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Tuesday, 2 July saw the Reserve Bank of Australia ease rates again by 25bp to 1%, the second such easing in consecutive months and to a record low. 
The RBA argues it is needed to “support employment growth and provide greater confidence that inflation will be consistent with the medium-term target”. The RBA is also uncertain about the “trade and technology disputes…affecting investment and means that the risks to the global economy are tilted to the downside”. The RBA is sending a clear message that it wants the economy to tighten up on spare capacity to weather any storms in the future.
However perhaps the underlying reasoning could be the continuing benign economic growth at 1.8% (below trend), subdued consumption due to protracted low wage and income growth and declining house prices (the RBA with APRA did trigger this one through tighter macro-prudential rules). While the RBA acknowledges employment growth has been strong and the participation rate is at a record level, there is still spare capacity with unemployment at 5.2%. Historically full employment has been seen with 5% unemployment, but this metric appears to have now been contracted…is 4% unemployed now deemed the sweet spot?
Underlying Inflation is also deemed below ideal at 1.4% March 2019 (RBA is targeting between 2-3%), with the target to be circa 2% by 2020 and “a little higher after that”.
This is positive for Australian Property overall, but in particular for Office where, with the RBA’s backing, business is encouraged to invest into its future, resulting in stronger employment growth and as such stronger Office space demand across all sub-sector types.
Savills believes Office supply is becoming tight in the major cities and in particular Sydney and Melbourne. Rental growth, tightening vacancy rates and reducing incentives are beginning to bite into spare capacity in the CBD’s and having a flow-on effect into the major suburban CBD’s of North Sydney, Parramatta, St Kilda and some more decentralised locations. Our latest 2Q analysis highlights CBD net face rents are now at post GFC highs across all grades, while yields are at all-time lows.
Brisbane and Perth are also seeing demand driven tightness emerging, with asset price stabilisation and appreciation, helped by vacancy rates falling.
We expect national Office to continue its capital valuation uplift, supported by rent growth and falling vacancies and incentives, which in time will result in further yield compression as investors rebase their investment returns requirements to an Australian environment of low for longer interest rates. Of course Global money has had this funding advantage for some time, which will add to the competition for assets and the further decentralisation of capital to select suburban CBD’s – North Sydney is an example of uplift by proximity.
Industrial Property will also continue to see capital value growth as the second derivative to lower interest rates boosting economic activity and a more confident consumer. Logistics will be the primary beneficiary here, supported by supply constraints around population densities especially relevant to Sydney and Melbourne markets.
From a Retail perspective, the RBA and the Government is wanting to encourage the consumer to spend. The Federal Governments Tax Cut Policy passed yesterday in the lower house and is now to be presented to the Senate will, if passed, give further impetus to the consumer to spend. In the last 5-7 years, the consumer has changed its spending patterns influenced by online e-tailing; low income growth; employment frequency (casual versus full-time) and what we deem the “Canberra Effect” – Governmental policy indecision and political disruption of the last 10 years and its psychological impact on the electorate. We see the RBA move coupled with Tax Cuts as a positive pivotal moment for retailers and Retail asset values going forward.
But it’s worth noting that RBA Governor Lowe stated that “Given the circumstances, the board is prepared to adjust interest rates again if needed to get us closer to full employment and achieve the inflation target”. 
So the RBA would further adjust rates if required! 
The RBA is clearly pursuing a path to pump prime the economy to boost confidence, employment and spending. It is targeting all time low rates to partner with the Federal Governments Tax Cuts Policy, passed yesterday in the lower house and now in the Senates’ hands, to give the electorate circa $158bil back into their hip pocket over the next 5 years. If passed in the Senate, those earning up to $90,000 would get an extra $1,000 back in tax within weeks, that could be spent at your local Mall or on a domestic holiday (The Aussie dollar may constrain the overseas holiday).
In Summary, the RBA’s easing to record lows and if the Senate passes the proposed Tax Cuts Policy with little amendment, Retail could see a much need boost into Christmas which in turn will boost landlord rental streams and stabilise asset values. Industrial, particularly logistics, will also benefit as retail recovers. 
However, Office Property will be the near term winners, as business investment prompts employment growth and the demand for Office space tightens an already limited supply base. Rental growth will continue and further cap rate compression will eventuate, as investment returns requirements allow for further asset purchases.
Phil Montgomerie is the head of research at Savills.
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RBA rate cut to record lows is good for property: Savills

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GUEST OBSERVATION
There’s a very good chance that later today the Reserve Bank will cut its cash rate to 1%. Some predict more cuts by the end of the year, <a href="https://theconversation.com/buckle-up-2019-20-survey-finds-the-economy-weak-and-heading-down-and-thats-ahead-of-surprises-119455" target="_blank">perhaps to 0.5%</a>.
It’s understandable. Economic growth is <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-05/australian-economy-slows-to-levels-last-seen-in-gfc/11180688" target="_blank">under-performing</a>; prices and wages are <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-economic-model-looks-broken-but-trying-to-fix-it-could-be-a-disaster-118397" target="_blank">scarcely growing</a>; and for three quarters now the economy has been in what might be called a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-falls-into-per-capita-recession-as-growth-tumbles-20190306-p5122r" target="_blank">per-capita recession</a> (the economy is not growing as fast as the population).
In the central banker cookbook there’s a note in red next to this description. It reads: “cut interest rates.”
But the Reserve Bank’s cash rate is already close to zero, at 1.25%. What if the needed cut is 2 or 3 percentage points?
Lowe knows his cookbook
Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe hopes that cutting the rate will help in two ways.
First, it will ease the mortgage burden on households, freeing up money for spending and making it easier for them to borrow. This may help sustaining house prices and reigniting the construction boom.
Second, by cutting the rate offered on Australian bonds and deposits, cutting the rate will devalue the Australian dollar, making Australian exports more attractive overseas.
The problem with the first channel is that more borrowing builds up debt. But Australian households are already among the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-30/australia-most-country-to-risks-of-rising-household-debt/10445814" target="_blank">most indebted in the world</a>, with private debt worth twice what the whole economy can produce in an entire year, so more debt may leave Australians even more exposed if things turn down and they lose their job. The Irish economy <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-08/how-much-is-australia-in-2018-like-ireland-in-2007/10343364" target="_blank">collapsed</a> when that happened during the global financial crisis.
The problem with the second channel is that it makes it harder to import. Bear with me.
Which Australia?
When I arrived in this sunny country in 2011, my colleagues and friends were always talking of the transition out of the mining and construction economy.
In few words, the story goes like this: the Australian economy boomed when East Asia started demanding our iron and coal. When that slowed down, the economy stayed afloat, because mining workers transferred to the cities to build new residential neighbourhoods for the growing population. By the time that ends we will have built a strong service economy–strong enough to take the place of construction.
But this transition hasn’t really happened, perhaps in part because of low interest rates.
Unlike mining, services need to import most of their inputs and compete on a global market for workers. A weaker dollar increases their costs.
And unlike construction, they are not particularly capital intensive. So low interest rates don’t much help them.
All isn’t lost
The services industries that are our future would be better off if it the Reserve Bank didn’t need to try so hard – there is a lot the government can do.
The services sector needs investments in the sort of infrastructure that would make our global cities attractive to live in.
It also needs reforms to make our services more competitive at home, perhaps by disturbing the distribution duopoly or by <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-changing-our-bank-account-numbering-system-will-be-a-win-for-customers-40236" target="_blank">making the big four banks compete harder for customers</a>. As well, the government has a role in absorbing (directly and indirectly) some of the workforce that inevitably will lose out when the mining and construction sectors contract.
At best, the Reserve Bank is buying time for the government. Alone it probably can’t avoid a recession forever.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gabriele-gratton-457958" target="_blank">Gabriele Gratton</a>, Associate Professor of Economics and Scientia Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/rate-cuts-might-hurt-as-well-as-help-what-if-this-man-didnt-need-to-do-as-much-119378" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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