Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

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NAB has just slashed several of its 2-year fixed rates for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest by 0.20 per cent.
For first home buyers NAB is offering 3.49 per cent, which is one of the lowest 2-year fixed rates available in Australia.
NAB is also offering $2,000 back on new loans of $250,000 or more.
This follows shortly after <a href="/news/anz-finally-cuts-fixed-home-loan-rates">ANZ cut rates</a> across several fixed rate home loans packages as of May 10.
ANZ was the last of the <a href="/news/westpac-joins-other-big-two-to-cut-fixed-home-loan-interest-rates">big four banks to reduce fixed rates</a> on home loans.
RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said it was unusual to see one of the big four banks offer one of the lowest fixed rates in Australia.
“The fact that NAB, a big four bank, is offering one of the lowest fixed rates in Australia is a sign of the times,” she said.
“The big banks are now playing in the low cost loan space in a bid for new customers and they aren’t taking a backwards step.
RateCity data shows around 50 lenders have cut fixed rates in the last two months ahead of the expected RBA cut.
Some lenders are even moving variable rates in the week out from the RBA, including ING which moved rates today and Mortgage House, which now has the lowest ongoing variable rate in Australia of 3.29 per cent.  
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/5/30/NAB%20Slash%20rates.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
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Note: All interest rates in the tables above are for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

NAB cuts two year fixed rates

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The next three RBA meetings are clearly live for a rate cut, says the NAB's Alan Oster.
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With its outlook for below trend growth, and below target inflation combined with little further improvement in the labour market, NAB expect the RBA to cut rates twice in 2019, taking the cash rate to a new record low of 1%.
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"We expect a cut by at least August."
"We have left our call for the first cut as July, with a follow up in November." 
However, with the RBA still looking for an improvement in the labour market and monthly figures often volatile, NAB recognise that the timing of the first cut will be especially data dependent.
"On the one hand a marked deterioration in upcoming labour market data as well as weaker national accounts partials, could see the cut brought forward to next month.
"Against that a cut could be delayed to August when the Bank will have observed another quarter of likely weaker GDP growth, a further update on the CPI and a revised set of staff forecasts ahead of the next SMP."
NAB noted labour market indicators should be closely watched, as a turn in the labour market could reasonably be 1.0 expected given the prior slowing in output growth.
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The NAB Survey measure of employment weakened in April and job ads appear to have fallen.
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The NAB reported the impact of the downturn in the housing market was "affecting both output and inflation data.
"The cooling appears to be ongoing, with prices continuing to decline and building approvals continuing to trend down."
NAB expect dwelling investment to record another decline in Q1 following the relatively sharp fall in the last quarter of 2018. 
"Overall we expect dwelling investment to decline by around 20% over the next two years. 
"Alongside this, we expect house prices to decline by another 5% nationally over 2019 and early 2020 before levelling out for a period."
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The report noted capital city house prices have now fallen by almost 10% since peaking in late 2017. 
"These declines have been led by Sydney (down 15%) and Melbourne (down 11%) where the role of investors is much larger and prices saw a much more significant rise. 
"That said, recent months have seen price declines broaden to the other states, with Brisbane and Adelaide having now declined over the year in addition to the ongoing weakness in Perth. In Hobart growth has slowed, but the city remains the standout, with prices remaining well up on a year ago," Alan Oster said.
On the activity side, building approvals continued their trend decline in March, unwinding the spike a month earlier. 
Over the past year approvals are 27% lower and are now 37% below their peak in 2017.
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The decline in approvals is evident across both houses and apartments down 19% and 57% respectively from their peaks in 2017. 
The decline in approvals suggests that activity in the sector will weigh on growth overall as the pipeline of outstanding work is completed.
NAB noted alongside the cooling in the market, housing credit growth has continued to slow. 
Investor lending slowed to just 0.7% y/y in March 2019, while growth in credit extended to owner-occupiers is tracking a little higher but has slowed to 5.7%. 
Overall housing credit has risen by 4.0% over the past year. 
ABS data on the value of new loan approvals has continued to trend down suggesting that credit growth will likely weaken a little further over coming months.
"To date, the adjustment in the housing market appears to have occurred in an orderly fashion – and may have served to reduce the prior build up of risk in the sector," Alan Oster said.
"We see the weakness in prices as having been driven by the earlier tightening driven APRA restrictions, a waning in foreign investor demand as well as affordability constraints themselves. 
"In addition it appears that there are some pockets of oversupply. 
"Going further, we see the cooling in the market continuing with prices declining a little further and also a notable downturn in the construction cycle. 
"Beyond this, we are closely watching for any additional spill overs from this sector to other sectors."
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Next three RBA meetings are live for a possible rate cut: NAB

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NAB's housing lending revenue has dropped for a second year in a row, and shareholders have seen their dividends drop.
The bank, still feeling the pinch from the banking royal commission, has slashed its dividends by 16 percent, from an unsustainable 99 cents a share to 83 cents.
NAB posted $2.7 billion profits, 4.3 percent up from the same period a year ago.
NAB chief executive Philip Chronican said in a statement that the decision to cut the dividend was difficult.
"We have to trade off the fact that our shareholders really rely on that dividend for income, but we need to also make sure that we've got a strong bank," Chronican said.
NAB's housing lending revenue is now $250 million less than it was in September 2017, when the national housing market began its downturn.
It is around $200 million less than this time last year, with steadily declines over the last four half yearly result announcements.
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The bank have however managed to reduce their interest only loan book, but it still sits at a relatively high 26.5 percent.
There was a spike in the second half of 2017, where $9.2 billion of interest only loans were converted to principal and interest.
In the first half of 2019 there were $7.9 billion of IO loans moved to P&amp;I.
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Of the 26.5 percent, eight percent are owner-occupier interest only loans, with 18.5% made up of investor interest only loans.
Over half of their loan book is made up of owner occupier principal and interest loans.
It was reported yesterday <a href="/expert-insights/finance/anzs-home-loan-portfolio-shows-big-drop-in-interest-only-borrowers">ANZ only have 18%</a> of their loans as interest only.
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In April NAB introduced a debt-to-income decline threshold of 9x.
Three percent of NAB's portfolio now has dynamic LVR over three percent.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/5/2/NAB-LVR.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

NAB housing lending revenue continues to drop, and shareholders pay the price

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NAB Economics have forecasted Sydney and Melbourne house prices to both decline over eight percent over 2019.
Melbourne is forecasted to see falls greater than Sydney.
Houses in the Victoria capital are expected to fall 8.8%, compared to Sydney's 8.4%.
The forecasts mean NAB expect Sydney house prices to fall 20% peak to trough, with Melbourne 15%.
NAB expect house prices in the two biggest property markets to continue to decline in 2020, just at a much slower rate.
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Hobart and Adelaide are the only capital cities forecasted to see house prices growth in 2019.
"Overall, we see the adjustment in house prices continuing in an orderly manner, with prices remaining well up on 5 years ago," NAB said.
NAB expect Sydney's unit prices to be the worst performing over 2019, with 7.2% declines forecasted.
Melbourne's declines are set to be softer at 4.3%, below Perth (-4.7%) and just above Brisbane (-4.2%).
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Market sentiment among 300 surveyed property professionals ticked a little in higher Q1 2019 as the monthly rate of house price decline eased in the first three months of the year.
The NAB Residential Property Index rose five points to a still very weak -15 as house prices in much of the country continued falling.
Sentiment was negative in all states bar South Australia and the Northern Territory (where annual dwelling prices in SA remain positive) and remained weakest in NSW and VIC where price falls were biggest.
Confidence was unchanged for the next 12 months, suggesting that market momentum will remain weak into 2020, however longer-term confidence improved with suggestions housing market conditions may start improving moving into 2021.
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Sydney property prices to decline by 20% from peak, with Melbourne down 15%: NAB

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EXPERT OBSERVER
While we have integrated the latest national accounts data and fine tuned our growth forecasts we have not fundamentally changed our view on pattern of growth outcomes over the next two years.
Thus last month, prior to the Accounts, we were expecting through the year growth to December 2019 of 2.6% now we are expecting 2.5%.
We have also not changed our forecasts for 2020 at around 2¼. What has however happened – given the new history - is a much larger slowing in year average terms in 2019 – previously 2.4% now 2.1%.
However we see the through the year growth numbers as providing a better gauge of growth momentum going forward.
As was heralded in yesterday’s  February Monthly Business Survey the slowing in the growth momentum has  continued into Q1 2019.
 In particular, the situation in discretionary retail and consumption more generally has deteriorated even further. We now expect not much improvement in the growth rate in consumer spending in 2019 – at around 2.0%  and any improvement in 2020 will need policy action. 
The Accounts also highlighted a turn down in the construction cycle – which appears to have continued (and indeed accelerated) into early 2019. This reinforces our view that over the next two years we are facing a pronounced residential construction cycle (a fall of around 20%).
That said supporting growth will be continued spending by the public sector, both on the NDIS and infrastructure. In addition to this, we still expect business investment to make a significant contribution to growth – though there are growing risks to this.
 Also exports will continue to grow, as LNG hits full production then plateaus at a high level. So it is important not to get too negative on our growth prospects.
That said our forecasts now point to below trend growth and a degree of rising spare capacity in the economy (already evident in the February Business Survey). 
This will mean less progress on reducing unemployment and slower than anticipated progress in wage growth (outside of policy intervention) and ultimately inflation. We now see no improvement in unemployment till mid 2020 and a slight deterioration thereafter.
This is why we now expect the RBA to cut the cash rate twice in 2019. While the exact timing of cuts is data dependent, we see the RBA cutting rates in July and then November. 
We believe this would be the path of “least regret” for the bank. We expect that as slower growth and less progress on reducing unemployment take hold at a time of subdued inflation and abating financial stability concerns the Bank will assess it can do more to bolster the economy.  
Of course a material deterioration in the labour market in the next few months (not our forecast) could see an earlier cut from the RBA.
ALAN OSTER is the Chief Economist for NAB
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Slowing growth with rate cuts ahead: NAB's Alan Oster

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
We now think that the RBA will make two rate cuts in 2019.
Growth appears to have lost significant momentum, placing at risk further improvement in the labour market at a time when inflation poses little constraint on policy and financial stability risks have abated.
We have pencilled in one 25bp cut to 1.25% in July and a further 25bp cut to 1% in November.
We see the timing of a rate cut as very data dependent; any deterioration in the labour market would lead to cuts and this could happen earlier than the financial market currently anticipates. 
If, as we expect, the loss of momentum in private-sector activity seen in H2 2018 continues, then there is unlikely to be much improvement in the labour market despite its resilience to date. This view is reinforced by the forward indicators in the NAB Business Survey pointing to continuing (if not further) weakening. That is especially so for private consumption and the residential construction cycle.
This means the RBA outlook for a further fall in unemployment to gradually lift wages and ultimately inflation is increasingly in doubt. We therefore expect the RBA to provide some further support to the economy in the form of lower interest rates.
Determining the timing of such moves is much more difficult, but we are forecasting two 25bp cuts in July and November. In this respect, we note that the RBA is independent and the political cycle should and will be irrelevant to the timing of a rate cut.
With monetary policy being forward looking, we think the RBA will act this year on a “no regrets” basis to boost economic activity and to offset a likely (on our forecasts) increase in unemployment in 2020. It is possible that further policy adjustment will be required in 2020.
Last month we removed our expectation for any increase in the cash rate over the next 18 months.
Even when judged against the RBA’s relatively positive outlook for growth and relatively good labour market outcomes, there seemed little case for a near-term increase in the cash rate given inflation remained a little below target. In shifting our view, we noted that, if anything, there was a significant chance of a near-term interest rate cut, particularly should building downside risks materialise.
The Q4 national accounts confirmed that the downturn in the residential construction sector is likely to be as sharp as we had previously forecast and similar in magnitude to the early 1990s recession. It also confirmed that consumption growth has remained weak, alongside only modest growth in household income.
The NAB Monthly Business Survey showed that the business sector lost significant momentum through the second half of 2018, with low business confidence suggesting little expected improvement. Indeed forward indicators in the Survey all suggested that firms believe that the loss of momentum will continue.
The only part of the Survey that had maintained strong momentum is employment, but we see this as very much related to previously strong conditions in H1 2018. The key question then is: will employment continue to hold up?
We fear not, given job advertisements have declined modestly for a number of months, suggesting that employment growth will ease. While we have only made modest downward revisions to our previous growth forecasts of 2.4% this year and 2.2% next year, we now expect little if any improvement in the near term in the unemployment rate, with an eventual increase later in the forecast horizon.
Wage growth is predicted to lift to around 2½ -2¾% by the end 2020 - not seen to be enough to see inflation rise to the middle of the RBA target band.
There remains some downside risks to our growth forecasts - and consequently labour market and inflation forecasts - if there turn out to be significant ‘wealth effects’ from the fall in house prices or if business investment should turn out materially weaker, as the Business Survey has begun to suggest as a risk.
What developments would allow the RBA to continue to keep interest rates on hold?
Chiefly, if the unemployment rate remained low – or declined further – in spite of ongoing weak consumption growth and the downturn in housing construction. That seems unlikely to us.
Substantial fiscal stimulus in the upcoming Budget would also be helpful, as would a sustained reduction in short-end funding pressures faced by lenders.
ALAN OSTER is the Chief Economist for NAB Group
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NAB now predicting two cash rate cuts in 2019: Alan Oster

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
We expect Q4 GDP to confirm a softening trend, recording another soft print of 0.4% in the quarter to be 2.6% higher over the year.
This release will also provide an important update on household sector dynamics around dwelling investment and consumption – two factors we see constraining growth over the next year or so and look to have done so in Q4. With growth projected to slow, amidst remaining spare capacity in the economy, we see rates on hold for an extended period.
While this release is unlikely to trigger an immediate shift on rates, it will provide another marker on the growth front which may lead to an eventual reassessment of the future growth path by the RBA, particularly if weaker growth flows through to labour market conditions.
Looking forward, we see the economy supported by public sector spending, a rise in LNG exports and healthy growth in business investment. Offsetting these supports, consumption is likely to only grow modestly and dwelling investment is expected to fall. 
Wednesday’s GDP figures are forecast to show the economy growing at a similar pace to Q3, printing at 0.4% q/q and seeing a year-average result of 2.9% for 2018.
In doing so, the data would confirm the economy slowed significantly in the H2 2018. Retail sales data and NAB’s modelling of household spending on services suggests that consumption growth will lift slightly to 0.5% - an improvement from Q3, but still a weak outcome.
Official data on residential construction suggest dwelling investment is to fall by around 3%, in line with NAB’s expectation of a decline of around 18% over the next two years, a view supported by the ongoing decline in building approvals. For our Q4 forecasts we see some downside risk to consumption and upside risk to public demand roughly offsetting. 
Looking forward, we expect growth over the next two years to be driven by public infrastructure investment, business investment and further growth in net exports, with consumption to only see modest growth and dwelling investment to fall relatively sharply.
For now, we do not forecast a ‘wealth effect’ weighing on spending, despite our forecast for further declines in house prices, but rather see a larger effect from housing through a significant fall in the construction cycle.
The key uncertainty around our forecasts relates to consumption and business investment. While consumption is playing out broadly as we expected based on weaker income growth, there remains some risk from further declines in house prices leading to a ’wealth effect’.
On the business side, the NAB business survey suggests some loss in momentum over the past 6 months and a recent dip in capacity utilisation. This presents a downside risk to our strong outlook for investment.
With wage and price data suggesting inflationary pressure remained weak in Q4, we expect national accounts measures of prices and income growth will also remain modest. Nonetheless, this release will provide an update on household income growth, the savings rate and the pattern of household expenditure. Unit labour costs look to have remained weak - consistent with ongoing weakness in market sector inflation.
Monetary policy implications: While the RBA remains focused on labour market for now, weaker GDP data will provide little comfort that activity will support ongoing strong employment growth.
Also, these data will provide a signal as to the likely speed and magnitude of the dwelling investment downturn as well as the pattern of household consumption – both downside risks to the RBA’s forecasts for growth.
The national accounts will likely confirm that income growth has remained low and also pose further questions around whether the labour market as a lagging indicator is yet to respond to the slowing in growth from mid last year.
We think that the RBA will wait for further evidence of a slowing labour market before shifting to an easing bias as leading indicators of the labour market are still favourable. Though with growth slowing we think the risk is building to the downside as the last effects of strong growth early in 2018 fade.
ALAN OSTER is NAB's Chief Economist 
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Household sector weakness to persist: NAB's Alan Oster

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Cooling in the housing market led by Sydney and Melbourne has now been ongoing for 18 months, but the decline in prices have accelerated towards the back end of 2018, according to the NAB Forward View Report.
The report noted, fall in prices has also been reflected in the activity side of the housing market with turnover falling and clearance rates remaining low.
Investment in dwellings was primarily held at a consistent level by alterations and additions.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/14/NAB%20DW%201.JPG" alt="">
NAB forecast the downturn in the construction cycle to continue over the next two years.
Sydney prices are now 12% below their July 2017 peak and Melbourne has declined by 9% since November 2017.
The report writers stated, "prices in Perth have weakened again recently after showing some signs of stabilisation in mid-2018."
"The other capitals have held up better (likely less effected by developments in the investor segment of the market)."
"We see peak-to-trough declines of around 15% in both Sydney and Melbourne but acknowledge that based on current momentum the declines may be larger, particularly in Sydney."
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/14/NAB%20DW%202.JPG" alt="">
Housing credit growth has also continued slowing, more so for investors than owner-occupiers.
Approvals for new building have declined and are now levels last seen in 2012, with the sharpest declines in apartment approvals.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/14/NAB%20DW%203.JPG" alt="">
The report stated, "We expect house prices to decline further, in an orderly fashion, and housing activity indicators to show further weakness as the market continues to adjust."
"Our forecasts embody a relatively sharp slowdown in dwelling investment with a fall approaching 20% over the next two years."
"This is consistent with further weakness in building approvals and a relatively sharp downturn in the construction cycle."
NAB forecasts house prices to decline further over 2019 before levelling out in 2020.
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Sydney home prices down 12% from peak: NAB

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National Australia Bank economists no longer forecast a 2019 rate rise from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The bank has join those who believe there possibly could be a rate cut before the end of this year.
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The economists said they no longer expected the RBA to hike rates in late 2020, a prediction they made as recent as late 2018.
"We ... now expect the cash rate to remain on hold over the forecast horizon," the bank's economists advised in a research note released today.
"While our central case is for the cash rate to remain on hold, based on the balance of risk, the next move could well be down - potentially as soon as H2 2019."
The RBA has kept rates at 1.5 per cent since August 2016, but last week itself shifted from a bias toward rate hikes to a more neutral stance.
"In particular, we see ongoing slow wage growth, falling savings rates, high debt levels and falling house prices as ongoing headwinds," NAB said in a note authored by chief economist Alan Oster, global head of research Ivan Colhoun and senior economist Gareth Spence.
"Our forecasts raise the question as to why the RBA would not move to give the economy some further support," they said.
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NAB sees no 2019 cash rate rise, and possibly the next move down

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Most Australians think it's not a good time to sell a property, according to a new survey.
According to NAB's latest consumer survey, a majority of respondents said they'd prefer not to list either the property are living in (56%) or an investment property (51%).
Some 41% also said that it wasn’t a good time to take out a mortgage for investment property.
The survey found roughly half of Australians said it was a good time to renovate the home they were living in (53%).
Buying a property to live in was the aspiration of 49%.
Mostly consistent in the different states some were outliers, in TAS the number who said it was a good time to buy a home to live in ranged from 61% in WA (where dwelling prices are around 17% lower than the last peak in mid-2014) to just 46% in NSW and QLD.
"When it came to selling a property to live in, the number of consumers who said it wasn’t a good time to sell was highest in WA (69%) perhaps also suggesting some home owners may be currently sitting on capital losses," the report said. 
"It was lowest in TAS (36%) which has also been fastest growing state for house prices since late-2017 and also the only state where consumers believe house prices will continue growing over the next 12 months."
"When it came to whether now was a good time to buy an investment property, WA was the most positive state and TAS (28%) the least positive followed by QLD (32%)."
"But more consumers in TAS (34%) thought now was a good time to sell an investment property, by far the highest number of all states," the report added.
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