Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
</main>

Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

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<div class="column">NAB have suggested the orderly correction in house prices will continue over the next 18 to 24 months, with Sydney units falling around 10 percent and Melbourne houses over eight percent.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">NAB’s change in forecast comes after their current market sentiment survey dipped to a seven year low and confidence collapsed.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Confidence in the NAB Residential Property Index in July saw confidence fall to its lowest level since mid-2016.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Its recent release is its first negative read since mid 2012, when the property price boom began.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">"Weakening house prices in New South Wales and Victoria weight heavily on the market," NAB's chief economist Alan Oster said.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">In July NAB forecasted a fall of 3.7 percent in the Sydney housing market this year. Now they suggest it will be a 5.7 percent decline.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/10/NAB%20House.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/10/10/NAB%20House.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Melbourne's housing market has seen the biggest forecast change. Predicted to drop 2.3 percent over the year in July, they are now forecast to decline by 5.9 percent, even greater than Sydney.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Unit prices in Sydney have now been tipped to decline twice as much as they were forecast to in July.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">NAB predicted a 1.6 percent decline, which they have changed to a 3.6 percent drop.</div>
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<div class="column">Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/10/NAB%20units.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
</div>
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<div class="column"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/10/10/NAB%20units.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Oster says the dwelling declines are a healthy correction.</div>
<div class="column">
"Overall, we see this as a healthy correction which will help offset some of the risk in the household sector against a backdrop of a relatively healthy economy and labour market," he said.
"Our central scenario does not include a credit crunch event leading to disorderly falls in house prices."
</div>
</div>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

NAB change property price correction forecast after confidence collapses

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An ongoing ASIC investigation has resulted in the permanent banning of former National Australia Bank (NAB) branch manager Mathew Alwan from engaging in credit activities and providing financial services.
The ban is the result of an extensive ASIC investigation in respect of NAB employees in greater western Sydney who were accepting false documents in support of loan applications and falsely attributing loans as having been referred by NAB introducers in order to obtain commissions. This conduct was the subject of the first case study before the Financial Services Royal Commission.
Mr Alwan’s banning follows the permanent banning of former NAB employees Danny Merheb and Samar Merjan (also known as Samar Awad) from engaging in credit activities and providing financial services, and the <a href="https://propertyobserver.com.au/finding/residential-investment/property-management/2-uncategorised/87011-reckless-loan-fraud-prompts-asic-ban-on-former-nab-branch-manager" target="_blank">seven year banning</a> of former NAB branch manager Rabih Awad.
From 2012 to 2015, Mr Alwan assigned 101 home loans as being referred to NAB by an introducer, causing a total of $186,725 to be paid to the introducer by way of commission.  ASIC found in 25 of these loan applications, Mr Alwan had knowingly given NAB false or misleading information and documentation.   
The introducer in question is Mr Alwan’s relative, a fact he did not disclose to NAB and actively concealed from the bank when questioned.
ASIC found that Mr Alwan’s conduct was dishonest, deliberate and repeated.
ASIC also found Mr Alwan personally lent money to a NAB staff member who reported to him and to a NAB customer while loan applications by each of them were pending approval, creating an unacceptable conflict of interest.
Mr Alwan has the right to lodge an application for review of ASIC’s decisions with the Administrative Appeals Tribunal.
ASIC’s ongoing investigation is considering whether a brief for criminal charges should be referred to the CDPP.
<h2>Background</h2>
On 16 November 2017, NAB announced a remediation program for home loan customers whose loans may not have been established in accordance with NAB’s policies.
NAB has identified that around 2,300 home loans since 2013 may have been submitted with inaccurate customer information and/or documentation, or incorrect information in relation to NAB’s Introducer Program.
 
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ASIC permanently ban another former NAB branch manager for accepting false loan documents

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National Australia Bank are electing not to hike their home loan rates and follow the other three of the big four banks.
Westpac raised their variable rates by 14 basis points late last month, <a href="/expert-insights/finance/westpac-is-the-first-of-the-big-four-banks-to-hike-out-of-cycle">the first to hike out of cycle.</a>
Last week <a href="/expert-insights/finance/cba-and-anz-hike-variable-home-loan-rates">ANZ raised their rates by 16 points</a> and were closely followed by Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, who hiked just 20 minutes later by 15 points.
NAB boss Andrew Thorburn said they need to rebuild the trust of their customers.
"By holding our NAB Standard Variable Rate longer, we help our customers for longer," Thorburn said in his statement.
“By focusing more on our customers, we build trust and advocacy, and this creates a more sustainable business.”
Thorburn said NAB will continue to regularly review its rates and assess whether current market conditions, including funding costs, continue.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/10/big%204%20rates.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/10/big%204%20rates.jpg" alt=""> Source: RateCity.com.au
NAB's standard variable rate (SVR) for home loans sits at 5.24 percent.
RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said NAB's announcement was 'exactly what home owners need.'
"NAB has heard the complaints from the government, regularors and most importantly their customers, and has acted," she said.
"It's great to see a bank putting its customers ahead of its profit margins."
New Prime Minister Scott Morrison has taken to Twitter to praise NAB.
"Good call by NAB not to life mortgage rates," he tweeted.
"They seem to get it."
The executive director of the Finance Brokers Association of Australia (FBAA) Peter White said the decision by NAB to stand out from the crowd was "a great step and shows strong support for its 900,000 plus customers."
“I predicted all the majors would follow Westpac when it raised its variable home loan rate less than two weeks ago.
"I am pleased my prediction was wrong.
"Thank you to NAB for bucking the trend."
The decisions by the ANZ and CBA to follow Westpac were as "predictable as they were unnecessary, and their existing customers should be complaining loudly and demanding better," Mr White said.
 
 
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NAB to hold home loan rates despite rival big four hikes

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The NAB Commercial Property Index fell 4 points to +17 in Q2 but remains 14 points above its long-term average of +3.
State indices declined across the country, except in VIC.
Sector indices for CBD hotels, office and industrial property converged in Q2, but remain much lower for retail.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/25/NAB%20CProp%202.JPG" alt="">
CBD hotels eased despite solid occupancy and a favourable tourism outlook.
Office and industrial indices also fell - even with positive lead indicators in office and online and warehousing demand for industrial.
Retail better (but negative) as subdued retail business conditions and slow wages growth hurt consumer sentiment.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/25/NAB%20CProp%204.JPG" alt="">
Confidence was largely unchanged in VIC and QLD, but slightly weaker in NSW.
SA/NT was the least confident by some margin (and in all sectors), with WA also trailing.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/25/NAB%20CProp%203.JPG" alt="">
Confidence fell most in CBD hotels (from high levels) but is still highest overall.
Industrial also lower and now on par with office after out-performing in Q1.
Office changed very little, with sector benefiting from demand in key states and nascent signs of recovery in under performing states.
Retail improved a little, but is still negative and weakest of all sectors. 
Expectations for capital growth in the next one to two years are strongest for office property at 1.6% &amp; 1.7% (replacing CBD Hotels), with VIC &amp; NSW leading the way.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/25/NAB%20CProp%205.JPG" alt="">
They are weakest for retail (-0.8% &amp; -0.7%), with values tipped to fall or stay flat in all states. 
National office vacancy fell to 8.5% in Q2 (9.0% in Q1) - lowest since Q4’15. Despite small increases in VIC and NSW, they remain the tightest markets for space.
Vacancy also fell further in QLD (lowest level in 4 years) and looks to have stabilised in SA/NT and WA. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/25/NAB%20CProp%201.JPG" alt="">
Office property also expected to lead way for rental growth in the next-12 years (1.5% &amp; 2.0), followed by industrial (1.2% &amp; 2.1%), with NSW and VIC out-performing in both markets.
In retail, the outlook is for rents to continue falling.
This quarter NAB asked property professionals for their take on the RBA and around two in three property professionals think next RBA move on rates will be up.
Only 4% see a cut and 23% no change while most (53%) believe next move will occur in six-12 months (NAB’s view (up) also sits in six-12 month range but at latter end).
If rates continue rising in medium to longterm, 18% think it will cause property values to fall over 10% and 51% less than 10%. 
Less than one in 10 (9%) property professionals use interest rate hedging to mitigate risk and almost six in 10 (59%) said they did not hedge and did not expect to do so in the future. 
When asked how their view on rates was impacting their hedging decision, 44% said they did not intend to change their position.
But 36% planned to increase the amount of hedging and 11% would increase the length of interest rate hedging. 
Despite a cooling housing market, a survey high 65% of developers starting new projects are still targeting residential development. 
The recent improvement in accessing funds has reversed in Q2.
In net terms, -29% said it was harder to obtain loans (-21% in Q1) and -16% equity (-14% in Q1).
More property professionals now also expect funding conditions to worsen in next six-12 months.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

NAB quarterly commercial property survey shows confidence still strong but declining

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The Sydney house market is forecast to fall 3.7 percent this year, according to the latest NAB Residential Property Index which saw confidence fall to its lowest level since mid-2016 and less than half the average.
The 1.6 percent fall in unit prices in Sydney in 2018 will not be as much as for houses. 
NAB's Residential Property Index is 'a measure of sentiment among property professionals based on expectations for house prices and rents'.
Sentiment waned in all states, with the biggest falls in WA and NSW.
The report suggests weaker than expected residential markets in Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth would add to ongoing weakness in Sydney.
It had prompted NAB to cut its outlook for housing prices this year to expect house prices this year to fall 1.8 percent from the 0.8 percent it forecast in April.
Unit prices are tipped to fall 1.7 percent.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/12/NAB%20res%20G2.JPG" alt="">
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/12/NAB%20res%20G4.JPG" alt="">
Confidence also fell to a new survey low, pulled down mainly by NSW and VIC where the outlook for house prices has been scaled back sharply.
The outlook for rents remains positive in all states and is likely placing upward pressure on yields.
It noted housing demand from first home buyers continued to offset a reduction in demand from foreign buyers in new and established housing markets, with state government incentives and moderating house prices assisting these buyers in moving onto the property ladder.
Property professionals have said credit constraints are impacting housing markets more than they have for a number of years amid intensified lending scrutiny by banks and APRA-inspired tighter credit policies.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/12/NAB%20res%20G3.JPG" alt="">
NAB’s is of the opinion that the weakness in dwelling prices seen over the past year is likely to persist in 2018 and 2019 although they expect moderate rather than sharp price falls.
Having revised their forecasts NAB now predict that there will be a slightly larger decline in 2018 and a small fall in 2019 (which they previously predicted would be a small increase), driven by continued weakness in Sydney and Melbourne as well as a sharper decline in unit prices in Brisbane.
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NAB forecasts that house prices will flatten in aggregate in 2020.
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Confidence falls with Sydney housing market forecast to be the worst in 2018: NAB

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An ASIC investigation into loan fraud has resulted in a permanent ban of former National Australia Bank employees, Danny Merheb and Samar Merjan (also known as Samar Awad) from engaging in credit activities and providing financial services.
NAB alerted ASIC to the misconduct of its former employees, alleging that bank staff in the greater western Sydney area were accepting false documents in support of loan applications.
Mr Merheb was found to have recklessly given NAB false payslips, letters of employment, bank statements and statutory declarations in respect of home loan applications. Ms Merjan was found to have knowingly and recklessly given NAB false payslips and letters of employment in respect of personal loan and credit card applications.
The false information and documentation submitted by Mr Merheb and Ms Merjan were primarily provided to them by a third person who had no association with NAB. 
NAB has welcomed ASIC's decision.
Mr Merjan and Mr Merhab were both terminated from their employments with NAB in November 2015. 
The bans follow NAB's announcement of a remediation program for home loan customers in November 2017, after an internal review found some home loans may have been submitted with inaccurate customer information and/or documentation, or incorrect information in relation to NAB's Introducer Program.
ASIC also found that:
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<li>Mr Merheb falsely attributed a loan as being referred to NAB by an introducer who was a friend in order for the friend to receive commissions dishonestly;</li>
<li>Ms Merjan assisted the third person in the creation of two false documents, which she subsequently provided to NAB in support of lending applications; and</li>
<li>Ms Merjan was twice offered cash by the third person to process lending applications.</li>
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ASIC’s investigation is continuing.
Mr Merheb and Ms Merjan were permanently banned on 29 June 2018. They both have the right to lodge an application for review of ASIC’s decisions with the Administrative Appeals Tribunal.
On 16 November 2017, NAB announced a remediation program for home loan customers after an internal review, prompted by whistleblower reports it had received which found that some home loans may not have been established in accordance with NAB’s policies.
NAB identified that around 2,300 home loans since 2013 may have been submitted with inaccurate customer information and/or documentation, or incorrect information in relation to NAB’s Introducer Program.
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False payslips in NAB home loan applications triggers ASIC permanent ban 

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<div class="column">EXPERT OBSERVATION</div>
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<div class="column">We have delayed the timing of when we expect the RBA to start a gradual rate hiking cycle.  
The change reflects the fact there is no sign yet of stronger wages growth and unemployment has been stuck around 5.5% for the best part of a year.
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<div class="column">While still very data dependent we now have the start of the rate hiking cycle in mid-2019.</div>
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 We still expect the economy to strengthen, leading to a declining unemployment rate. This should eventually translate into stronger wages growth and give the RBA confidence that inflation will track back to its 2.5% target. However, we acknowledge there is considerable uncertainty around the timing at which wages growth will strengthen, and the time of the RBA’s next move will remain highly data dependent.
For some time NAB has been forecasting that if the economy were to improve as expected, then the RBA would at some point feel confident enough with the economic outlook to start the process of raising the cash rate from its current low level of 11⁄2%. In particular, our view has been that economic growth will strengthen over the coming year and that, with the pace of jobs growth already solid, this would lead to a declining unemployment rate and as a result upwards pressure on wages growth and inflation.
We still consider that this is the most likely trajectory for the economy and RBA policy. However, this week’s data on wages and the labour market indicate that November 2018, our previous forecast for the first rate rise, is too early and we now expect the RBA to be on hold through the rest of this year.
The unemployment rate ticked up 0.1ppt in April to 5.6%, and while the monthly data can bounce around, it adds to the evidence that progress in reducing the unemployment rate has stalled. The ABS measure of the trend unemployment rate has been at 5.5% since August last year; while jobs growth has been solid over this period, this has been offset by further increases in workforce participation. On the wages front, the Wage Price Index (WPI) for the March quarter 2018 was unchanged at 2.1% y/y, with private sector wages growth also unchanged at a slightly weaker 1.9% y/y and showing no signs of accelerating.
The RBA’s view on the outlook for the Australian economy is similar to NAB’s, in that it expects growth to strengthen, and for unemployment to decline leading to a pick-up in wages. The Bank continues to expect progress on unemployment, wages and inflation to be only gradual and has made clear that there is not a strong case for a near-term change in the cash rate. This week’s wage and unemployment data clearly will have done nothing to change this view. Quite reasonably, the RBA does not see 2% wages growth as consistent with 2.5% inflation over time and wants to see some pick-up in wages before lifting rates.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/21/NAB1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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We still believe that conditions are in place for wages growth to rise in the future. Our modelling of factors that affect wages – inflation, labour market underutilisation, productivity and the terms of trade - suggest that we would already have expected to see stronger wages growth. Clearly this has not happened and may reflect the need for the unemployment rate to get closer to its long-term ‘neutral’ rate of 5% or lower, before sufficient wage pressures emerge. This has been the experience of other countries in recent years.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/21/NAB2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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With the unemployment rate stuck around 5.5% recently, we now don’t expect the unemployment rate to get close to the 5% mark until mid-2019. That said, businesses continue to indicate – through our Quarterly Business Survey – that they are finding it increasingly difficult to find suitable labour; historically this has been associated with a decline in the unemployment rate, as well as the underutilisation rate and, ultimately, wages growth.
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As a result our forecasts for WPI growth are more conservative than the model projections but we still expect to see some acceleration in wages growth. We are projecting that by mid-2019 WPI growth will reach the 21⁄2% y/y mark. At that time, with unemployment close to its full-employment level, growth above trend and wages growth gradually accelerating, we expect the RBA would have sufficient confidence that inflation will move back towards target and so start to gradually lift the cash rate off its current very low level. 
We expect once the tightening cycle starts, further rate increases will be very gradual. We are now expecting the first move to be in mid (May) 2019, with the next move after that not until late in the year (November 2019).
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/21/NAB3.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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However we acknowledge that there is considerable uncertainty around the timing of the RBA’s next move. The divergence of wages growth from what is suggested by the models makes this uncertainty greater than usual. The RBA will remain heavily data dependent and will want to see sustained signs of a pick-up in wages growth before moving, even if the rest of the economy moves in line with expectations.
Alan Oster is group chief economist, National Australia Bank, and can be contacted <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/author/alan-oster/">here</a>.
 
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NAB push back RBA cash rate hike forecast to mid 2019

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The NAB Commercial Property Index rose 4 points to +21 in Q1 and sits comfortably above its long-run average (+3).
By segment, CBD Hotels continues to out-perform, aided by international tourism and favourable global economic conditions. Industrial property rose again, supported by transport &amp; logistics firms, warehousing, fulfilment and distribution centres. The Office market also bounced back with healthy demand in key eastern states and supported by strong business conditions and employment growth. Retail fell deeper into negative territory as challenging retail trade conditions continued to bite.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/18/index.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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While confidence around Industrial and Office property has lifted, Retail confidence was down heavily and negative for the first time since mid-2013. This is consistent with NAB’s Business Surveys which also show an under- performing retail sector along with our own forecasts for subdued household spending in 2018 and 2019. Confidence was also a little lower in the CBD Hotels sector, but still highest overall.
By state, sentiment rose strongly in WA (but was still negative overall). Sentiment was also higher in NSW and SA/NT, but fell in QLD and was unchanged in VIC.
Property experts in all states are more confident about the overall commercial property market in next 1-2 years (bar QLD), with NSW and VIC the most upbeat and WA least confident (but also the biggest improver).
Expectations for capital growth in Office markets in the next 1-2 years have improved in all states bar QLD. The outlook for Industrial property is also stronger, but expectations for Retail capital growth were scaled back with negative or slow growth anticipated in all states. Overall, expectations for capital growth are still strongest for CBD Hotel property.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/18/hotel-future.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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Overall Office vacancy rose to 9.0% in Q1 with a small rise in NSW. But NSW along with VIC are still the tightest markets for Office space (and set to remain so over outlook period). Office vacancy fell in WA, SA/NT and QLD and is expected to keep tightening in next 1-2 years (but remain relatively high), with over-supply to remain a key issue in these states.
Rental growth is expected to be fastest for Industrial and Office commercial property in the next 1-2 years, with VIC and NSW out-performing. Property experts also see rents recovering in WA, especially in Office. The outlook for rents in the Retail sector however remains very weak with negative growth expected in all states bar NSW (flat).
For the first time, Retail property experts were asked to assess the strategy acquisitions of A-REIT and ‘Other’ investors for next 12 months. Most (over 1 in 2) think they will focus on acquisitions and holding assets. But 1 in 5 also said ‘Other’ investors will likely divest, significantly more than in A-REITS where just 1 in 10 think they will divest.
Retail acquisition strategies are expected to be driven by concerns over the economy and consumer confidence, opportunities to acquire traditionally tightly held assets, concerns over online retail and entry of new players (like Amazon), all time high cap rates and concerns over changing consumer spending patterns. Most experts operating in the Retail property segment also think these changes will impact landlords negatively, especially large neighbourhood, sub-regional and regional areas.
Fewer property developers are looking to use land-banked stock for their new projects and an increasing number are also seeking new acquisitions, pointing to a period of stock rebuild. A higher than usual number of developers are also looking to refurbish existing property, suggesting more developers are also seeing this as a cost effective solution for their development needs.
Accessing funds (both debt and equity) needed for their property business is still a major challenge but less so than in Q4. But survey participants expect their debt funding and equity conditions to worsen again over the next 6-12 months.
Alan Oster is group chief economist, National Australia Bank, and can be contacted <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/author/alan-oster/">here</a>.
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National CBD hotels continue to out-perform as NAB's commercial property index rises

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
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Sentiment towards the Australian housing market improved in Q1 as strong gains in WA and QLD offset falls in NSW and VIC. 
Confidence improved sharply in WA, but fell further in NSW amid expectations for bigger price falls. 
NAB has lowered its house price forecast for 2018 on continuing weakness in Sydney and a softer Melbourne market.
NAB recently suggested they only see Sydney house prices falling in 2019, with a stabilization in 2020.
The NAB Residential Property Index rose 3 points to +23 in the March quarter 2018 and remains well above its long-term average (+14). 
“But the overall result is masking an ongoing shift in sentiment across states” NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster said. 
It fell further in NSW and Victoria, driven down by weakening house prices, and was also lower in SA/NT. 
Sentiment towards the housing market in WA however rose strongly and recorded its first positive read since early-2014. It also continued to strengthen in Queensland. 
Overall confidence levels were broadly unchanged, but have risen strongly in WA and softened in NSW. “Survey house price expectations are mirroring these trends” said Mr Oster. 
Property experts are predicting bigger house price falls in NSW and have scaled back their outlook for Victoria. 
But they are much more bullish in WA, with stronger growth also expected in Queensland. 
Among other key survey findings, the market share of first home buyers climbed to new survey high, but that of resident investors hit a new low. 
According to Mr Oster: “Recent efforts by state governments to improve housing affordability is helping first home buyers, especially in Victoria and NSW, but the APRA inspired crackdown in investor lending is hurting investors.” 
Surprisingly, there was a small increase in the share of foreign buyers in new property markets after having fallen to a 6-year low in the previous quarter. This was led by NSW and WA. 
“Property experts also continue to tell us that credit access is still the biggest constraint on new housing development in the country and the biggest impediment for buyers of existing property” Mr Oster said. 
But concerns over interest rates are growing. 
“We’re not surprised given NAB’s own view is that interest rates will start rising gradually from late-2018, albeit with the risk this could be delayed until 2019” said Mr Oster. 
NAB’s forecasts on residential prices 
NAB’s view for 2018 now has a small fall in house prices in 2018 (now -0.8% was +0.7%). This is largely related to continuing weakness in the Sydney market (-3.4%) and a softer Melbourne market (+0.1%) with little improvement now expected during 2018. 
According to Mr Oster: “Looking forward it’s hard to see a near term rebound in Sydney and Melbourne house prices, especially given consumer concerns over the cost of living and high levels of household debt.” 
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National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL and Australian Credit Licence 230686 
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“Strong performances in Tasmania and to lesser extent in regional areas, along with higher confidence in the West and Queensland won’t offset the aggregate effects of lower prices in Sydney and Melbourne. Nor will increased first home owner demand fill the gap” added Mr Oster 
For 2019, our house price forecasts remain broadly unchanged at +0.8% with only Sydney expected to fall (albeit modestly). 
Apartment forecasts are also broadly unchanged (-0.8% in 2018 &amp; -1.8% in 2019) reflecting large stock additions and softer outlook for foreign demand. 
For 2019, weakness will likely be concentrated on the Eastern seaboard - with apartment prices expected to fall in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. 
“Naturally, any additional changes to government or prudential policy to address affordability or financial stability concerns are likely to have an impact on these forecasts” said Mr Oster. 
About 300 property professionals participated in the Q1 2018 survey.
Alan Oster is group chief economist, National Australia Bank, and can be contacted <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/author/alan-oster/">here</a>.
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Housing sentiment improves in Q1, but falls further in New South Wales: NAB

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Housing market conditions continue to soften with most capital city housing markets seeing price falls or slower growth, and transaction numbers remain lower than year ago levels. Auction clearance rates, while they have picked up from their late 2017 levels, remain below where they were a year ago. 
Melbourne house prices are also now also weakening and there are early signs of this occurring in Adelaide as well. Brisbane dwelling prices have been broadly flat in recent months while Perth, after a long period of falling prices, appears to have stabilised.
NAB recently suggested housing sentiment rose in Q1, however its WA and QLD that are dragging the softening Victoria and NSW.
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The Melbourne and Sydney housing markets have been affected by falling overseas demand. The NAB Residential Property Survey indicates that the foreign share of new property purchases reached a six year low at the end of 2017, although there was a small increase in foreign interest in the March 2018 quarter. 
In addition to lower foreign demand, policy changes have affected the investor market. This can be seen in housing finance approvals data; the value of investor finance approvals in January was down 12% on the same time last year. The weakening in investor finance was offset for a while by rising approvals for owner-occupiers, but even this has turned negative recently. 
As a result, in January 2018 the number of housing finance approvals (owner-occupier, ex refinancing) was almost the same as a year ago, after showing double digit growth in mid- 2017.
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We have slightly lowered our house price forecasts for 2018 and now expect a small fall in house prices (now - 0.8% was +0.7%), largely due to continuing weakness in the Sydney market and a softer Melbourne market. 
For 2019, the house price forecasts remain broadly unchanged at +0.8% with only Sydney expected to fall (albeit modestly). 
Apartment forecasts are broadly unchanged (-0.8% in 2018 &amp; -1.8% in 2019) reflecting large stock additions and a soft outlook for foreign demand. More details are available in the NAB Residential Property Survey.
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Dwelling investment has been trending down since Q3 2016. This can be seen in building approvals data, particularly for ‘other dwellings’ (principally apartments but also semi-detached dwellings). However, while building approvals remain off their peaks, there is little sign at this stage of further downwards momentum, and they remain relatively high by historical standards. Still strong population growth means that even as a large stock of apartments come onto the market over the next few years, we are unlikely to see a major correction. 
Nevertheless, we still see further small declines in dwelling investment in 2018 and 2019 before stabilising in 2020.
Alan Oster is group chief economist, National Australia Bank, and can be contacted <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/author/alan-oster/">here</a>. 
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