Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Interest Rates

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank Board meets next week on September 3.
We expect that the Board will decide to keep rates on hold at the meeting but continue to expect the next rate cut to occur in October.
A key signal around the Governor’s Statement following the decision next week will be whether the Governor continues with the wording “ease monetary policy further if needed”.
“If needed” was used in both July and August and seemed to imply a degree of patience with rates remaining on hold at the August and, we believe, the September meetings.
However, those words were not used in June and we saw a follow up move in July.
If the “if needed” is still used in the Statement then it will not necessarily preclude a move in October – it might be considered prudent to break with that signalling approach but an absence of “if needed” will certainly be very encouraging for our October view.
October has some advantages – we saw the response in the Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index to consecutive cuts in June and July, with Sentiment actually falling by 4% following the July cut only to recover by 3.6% after rates were on hold in August. This result is likely to have impressed upon the RBA the need to avoid a policy response, such as consecutive months or a 50 basis point move, that might unnecessarily unnerve households.
We are aware that the Governor is concerned about global developments and probably would like to retain some flexibility to respond to an unexpected global shock – better to cut rates in October and allow flexibility to move again in December rather than delay until November and have to do consecutive November/ December moves.
There also seems little reason to delay beyond October – we know that the August inflation, wages, and unemployment forecasts were revised down despite assuming two more rate cuts – one in 2019 and one in early 2020.
We do not expect any further downward revisions in November that might require an immediate policy response.
The forecasts also embed a lift in growth momentum in 2019 from 2% (annualised in 2019 H1) to 2.75% in 2019 H2.
The June quarter GDP report will print the day after the September Board meeting. In our preview we expect that Q2 will print 0.5% growth, including consumption growth of 0.4% up from 0.3% in the March quarter.
We think this report is unlikely to impact any decision for an October cut since the real question around GDP will be the extent to which spending responds to the rate cuts in June/July; a lower AUD; the tax offset payments, which are now rolling out ($7.7 billion); the election result and the lift in auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne.
This information is unlikely to be sufficiently clear by November to justify waiting until then.
In this note I also wanted to comment on some of our other financial market forecasts.
We are not anticipating further sharp falls in fixed interest rates.
The Australian 3 year swap rate has now fallen to 0.70% - 30 basis points below cash but only around 30 basis points above the expected terminal cash rate. That compares with around 50 basis points that the swap rate averaged over the 1.5% cash rate that held between August 2016 and June 2019. That period was marked by expectations of rate increases, although those expectations faded badly by the second half of 2018. Nevertheless we are now dealing with the expectation of an incredibly flat curve even when markets resume some form of equilibrium.
For those reasons our current swap rate forecasts envisage the swap rate holding around current levels despite further rate cuts from the RBA.
The current shape of the curve is likely also influenced by the market’s expectation that some form of QE may impact the term premium. Such policy could be implemented by the RBA (a direct asset purchase program) or via the banks (through direct funding from the RBA which flows on to other rates).
Of course the other way that current swap rates could fall further would be through an even lower terminal cash rate than the 0.5% which we currently envisage. To be sure, a package of QE and a cut to 0.25% would significantly lower swap rates further.
There are similar considerations for the 10 year bond rate. The bond rate has fallen to 0.90% - around 50 basis points above the market’s terminal cash rate, of around 0.4%. That compares with a margin of around 100 basis points between the 10 year bond rate and the steady 1.5% cash rate in the 2016-2019 period. Without an even lower terminal cash rate or some QE program by the RBA (directly or through the banks) it seems a stretch to expect any further sustained falls in that bond rate despite two more rate cuts coming from the RBA.
The comparison with the US is interesting. The market’s terminal federal funds rate is now around 0.9% by early 2021. A current US 10 year bond rate of around 1.5% is largely in line with our expected equilibrium margin in Australia of 50 basis points.
Westpac’s forecasts for the terminal cash rate in Australia are now broadly in line with the market. While our current federal funds rate forecast currently entails three more cuts in 2019 followed by some stability at a federal funds rate of 1.375%, the speed that we envision this easing is more aggressive than market pricing of 2½ cuts by end 2019 and therefore consistent with the US bond rate staying down at these levels for the rest of this year.
In 2020, we are certainly not expecting a recession in the US despite the inverted 2-10 year bond curve signal. US 10 year rates are distorted by the negative bond rates in Europe and Japan, and indeed, that also partly explains the unprecedented flat curve relative to the market’s expected terminal federal funds rate which we highlighted earlier. Instead, we look to a more cautious White House in 2020 as the Presidential election nears. However we do acknowledge that the FOMC might eventually move even closer to the cash rates in other markets as US economic growth drops below potential in 2020 and 2021.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
</body></html>

bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

RBA to hold next week, but expect October rate cut: Bill Evans

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe has said two things about unemployment in the past few weeks. Together, they lead to an inescapable conclusion.
The first was in a speech in <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-05-21" target="_blank">May</a>, expanded on in a speech in <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-06-20" target="_blank">June</a>. At both times the published unemployment rate was 5.2%.
Lowe said in May that while the Reserve Bank had long thought an unemployment rate of 5% was the best that could be achieved without generating worrying inflation, that view has now changed:
From today’s perspective, I think we can do better than this. My judgement of the accumulating evidence is that the Australian economy can support an unemployment rate of below 5% without raising inflation concerns.
It was good news. And then it got better.
In June he put a number on how low the unemployment rate could go before inflation became a concern:
While it is not possible to pin the number down exactly, the evidence is consistent with an estimate below 5%, perhaps around 4.5%. Given that the current unemployment rate is 5.2%, this suggests that there is still spare capacity in our labour market.
The Reserve Bank should be able to cut interest rates until unemployment fell below 5% and approached 4.5% without worrying about inflation, Lowe argued.
And in May, in a report back from a board meeting, he made it clear that’s what he would do:
At that meeting, we discussed a scenario in which there was no further improvement in the labour market and the unemployment rate remained around the 5% mark. In this scenario, we judged that inflation was likely to remain low relative to the target and that a decrease in the cash rate would likely be appropriate.
It would likely be appropriate to cut interest rates and keep cutting until the unemployment rate was driven below 5%, continuing to cut until it approached 4.5%.
Today, appearing before the House of Representatives economics committee in Canberra with the unemployment rate still stuck at 5.2% despite two consecutive rate cuts, he delivered what on the face of it was bad news.
He said the bank’s central forecast was that the unemployment rate would stay above 5% again <a href="https://rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-08-09" target="_blank">until 2021</a>. That’s right, 2021.
But taking the two statements together, it is reasonable to conclude that the Reserve Bank will keep cutting rates until unemployment does fall below 5%. In other words, it will keep cutting rates until 2021.
<h2>Lowe ain’t done cutting…</h2>
Indeed, the Reserve Bank’s <a href="https://rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2019/aug/pdf/economic-outlook.pdf" target="_blank">quarterly forecasts update</a>, released as Lowe spoke, countenances that happening. As foreshadowed by the governor, it forecasts that the unemployment rate won’t fall back to 5% until June 2021.
And it contains several other unwelcome forecasts: economic growth of just 2.5% this year, down from a previously forecast 2.75%, and very weak inflation this year of just 1.75%, down from a previously forecast 2%.
<hr>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287473/original/file-20190809-144888-lxfnms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287473/original/file-20190809-144888-lxfnms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> <a class="source" href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2019/aug/" target="_blank">RBA Statement on Monetary Policy, August 9, 2019</a>
<hr>
But here’s the thing. All of those forecasts were compiled, as is the Reserve Bank’s custom, by taking into account not only the two interest rate cuts that have already happened (and have taken the bank’s cash rate down to an all-time low of 1%), but also two more yet to be delivered.
It is explained in the footnote:
Technical assumptions set on 7 August include the cash rate moving in line with market pricing.
The “market pricing” is the consensus of the bets placed on the futures market for what the Reserve Bank is going to do to its cash rate.
The consensus is for another cut of 0.25% in October and then another cut of 0.25% in February, taking the cash rate down to yet another all-time low of just 0.5%.
<hr>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287484/original/file-20190809-144838-1xymcob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287484/original/file-20190809-144838-1xymcob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> <a class="source" href="https://www.asx.com.au/prices/targetratetracker.htm" target="_blank">ASX target rate tracker</a>
<hr>
The Reserve Bank is normally at pains to point out that this is a mere technical assumption, not a guarantee of how it will move rates. But the awful truth is that its forecasts imply that unless it cut rates two more times in coming months, unemployment won’t fall to 5% by 2021, and inflation will be even weaker than the incredibly weak 1.75% it is forecasting.
<h2>…and he might not stop at zero</h2>
Two more cuts in its cash rate will take it to 0.5%, close to zero.
Lowe revealed that the Reserve Bank is investigating so-called “unconventional” monetary policy or <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/commrep/eea5d0b8-72e9-4b5e-acf8-52ed46888ced/toc_pdf/Standing%20Committee%20on%20Economics_2019_08_09_7100.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf" target="_blank">quantitative easing</a> that would have the same effect as taking the cash rate below zero.
“It is prudent for us to have done the work in advance to see what we would do – it’s really contingency planning,” he said.
Rates might go to zero, or below, worldwide because right now there is a worldwide glut of savings, and not enough investment.
The reality we face is that, if a lot of people want to save and not many people want to use those savings to build new capital, savers are going to get low returns. We can move our interest rates around this new structurally lower level,but we can’t escape the fact that global interest rates are low.
The Reserve Bank’s best case is that its Australian forecasts are wrong - that unemployment actually falls and that inflation, wage growth and economic growth climb.
There’s a respectable view within the bank that this might happen. Its forecasts take into account a range of positive influences, including lower interest rates, the recent tax cuts, the depreciation of the Australian dollar, a brighter outlook for investment in the resources sector, some stabilisation in the housing market, and ongoing high levels of investment in infrastructure.
But they are the result of a mechanical model that takes them into account individually. The governor’s hope is that, taken together, they will achieve more than is forecast.
He would like governments themselves to push things along, starting with the wages they pay their own employees, and he is becoming ever more bold about saying so:
Most public sectors have wage caps of 2.5%, some have 1.5%, I think in Western Australia it’s probably even lower. I can understand why governments are doing that. On the other hand, the wage caps in the public sector are cementing low wage norms across the country. Over time, I hope the whole system, including the public sector, could see wages rising at three point something.
He is as good as powerless to stop what he regards as a worldwide investment strike caused by the trade and technology disputes between the United States and China.
These disputes pose a significant risk to the global economy. Not only are they disrupting trade flows, but they are also generating considerable uncertainty for many businesses around the world. Worryingly, this uncertainty is leading to investment plans being postponed or reconsidered.
Lowe doesn’t believe further interest rate cuts would to do much to encourage businesses to invest, or to encourage home buyers to borrow.
But he is certain they will help in other ways.
They will lower the exchange rate, making Australian goods and services more competitive, and that they will free up the cash of Australians who already have home loans, what he calls the “cash flow” channel:
There is no evidence that has become less effective. It is certainly true that in the current environment, at least in my view, monetary policy is less effective than it used to be. In today’s environment people don’t run off to the bank to borrow more when interest rates fall; they are more likely to pay back their mortgage more quickly. So that dynamic is different than it used to be.
When he last appeared before the parliamentary committee in February he said the probabilities of rates going up and rates going down were <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/commrep/b9c7ee3a-c926-4f3e-acc4-cf5b8809f649/toc_pdf/Standing%20Committee%20on%20Economics_2019_02_22_6971_Official.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf#search=%22committees/commrep/b9c7ee3a-c926-4f3e-acc4-cf5b8809f649/0000%22">evenly balanced</a>. He didn’t say that today.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709" target="_blank">Peter Martin.</a>, Visiting Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292" target="_blank">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/rba-update-governor-lowe-points-to-even-lower-rates-121690" target="_blank">original article</a>.
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Governor Lowe points to even lower rates: Peter Martin

<html><body>
The RBA kept rates on hold at the August meeting, following back to back rate cuts to bring the official cash rate down to a record low one percent.
It had previously stood at a historic low 1.5% before the latest cuts. The rate hadn't been cut since August 2016 when it was brought down from 1.75%.
Today the RBA have released their chart pack, which highlights key factors in the Australian economy.
Property Observer takes a look at four key charts which will have been strong influencers in the decision to cut the official interest rate.
Consumer Price Inflation ticked up slightly
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/8/Consumer%20Price%20Inflation%20RBA.jpg" alt="">
Australia's Consumer Price Index rose 0.6 percent over the June quarter, slightly higher than expectations. 
The CPI rose 1.6 per cent through the year to the June quarter 2019, after increasing 1.3 per cent through the year to the March quarter.
Westpac had been <a href="/expert-insights/investing/cpi-forecast-to-rise-for-june-quarter-westpacs-justin-smirk">forecasting a 0.5% rise</a> in the June quarter CPI, taking the annual pace to a 1.5% rise from 1.3%.
IFM economist Alex Joiner says the figures were a slight upside surprise, however it is inline with expectations on core measures. 
Household disposable income rose slightly, but it's not translating into increased consumption yet.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/8/Household%20Income%20and%20Consumption%20RBA.jpg" alt="">
Disposable income has bucked its steady, ongoing decline after it nearly hit 0%. 
Consumption has carried on declining, but the RBA will be keen to see disposable income rise given the recent rate cuts.
Consumer sentiment continues to rise
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/8/Consumer%20sentiment%20RBA.jpg" alt="">
Consumer sentiment continued its upward trend following the federal election outcome having dipped below the average index earlier in the year.
It is now equalling, and bettering, levels in boom time 2015 and 2016.
Housing prices starts to rebound.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/8/Housing%20Prices%20RBA.jpg" alt="">
House prices have started to stabilise after a long downward trend which saw them approach 10% declines.
Statistics from the ABS, APM, Residex and CoreLogic all show a turnaround.
To download the full chart pack in full, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/pdf/chart-pack.pdf?v=2019-08-08-09-10-56" target="_blank">click here</a>.
 
</body></html>

wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

The four charts that prompted the RBA keep rates on hold in August

<html><body>
The RBA has held the cash rate at a record low one percent at its August meeting.
The decision follows slightly <a href="/expert-insights/investing/cpi-rises-0-6-percent-in-june-quarter">higher inflation than predicted</a> for Q2 2019.
RBA Governor Philip Lowe said most housing markets remain soft, although there are some signs of a turnaround, especially in Sydney and Melbourne.
CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless says the decision to hold the cash rate was expected.
"The pause in the cutting cycle will give the RBA time to assess the effects of earlier rate cuts on the economy and consumer spending, however there is a strong likelihood of at least one more cut later this year," Lawless says.
"The housing market has been a key beneficiary of lower mortgage rates, with a trend towards stability over the first half of the year converting to a subtle rise in capital city housing values in July. 
"With mortgage rates set to remain low for an extended period of time, as flagged by RBA Governor Lowe in a speech last month, and potentially move even lower later this year, we are expecting to see the housing market move into a gradual recovery, however with credit policies remaining tight and economic uncertainty still elevated, we aren’t expecting a material acceleration in housing activity or housing values."
Finder's latest RBA Survey found that economists and experts predicted small gains across every capital city market.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said it's too soon to tell if this is an emerging recovery in the housing market or merely a 'dead-cat bounce'.
“In finance, the saying is that even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from great heights," Cooke says.
“Most economists surveyed foresee small levels of growth across the board, but a few tipped prices to tumble, especially in Sydney and Melbourne where one expert predicted a 7% drop.
“Whether you see this as a falling feline or the beginning of a true rebound, it’s clear that the full effects of the RBA’s recent cuts have yet to play out.
<img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/881b878c-2e84-4824-9ea6-abb2854b4aa9.png" width="610" height="443">
“However, after one of the strongest weekend clearance rates in Sydney in recent months (71%), there is definitely a detectable pulse,” Cooke said.
Canberra is expected to be the best performer with 2.27% gains. Sydney and Melbourne are looking at 1.48% and $1.57% gains respectively.
Cooke said those considering getting on the property ladder need to get their ducks in a row.
“Prospective first time buyers should look at arranging pre<a href="https://finder.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499&amp;id=72671b9013&amp;e=f2176dbcf8" target="_blank">-</a>approval for finance soon if they want to take advantage of low rates before prices increase.”
<div><img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/2027eefe-611e-46ff-974f-dd622ad3779f.png" width="613" height="445"></div>
<div>
 
</div>
</body></html>

jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

RBA holds rates after two consecutive cuts

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
The RBA meets on August 6 and releases the Statement on Monetary Policy on August 9. We think it is quite unlikely that the Board will decide to do a third consecutive cut at this meeting but remain comfortable with our view that the RBA will deliver additional 25bps cuts in October and February.
The Reserve Bank Board meets on August 6 to consider whether to extend the sequence of rate cuts in June and July for another month.
We think it is quite unlikely that the Board will decide to do a third consecutive cut at this meeting.
Following the cut in July, the Governor noted, “The Board will continue to monitor developments in the labour market closely and adjust monetary policy if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time".
That statement compared with the June statement, “The Board will continue to monitor developments in the labour market closely and adjust monetary policy to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time".
The inclusion of the term “if needed” in the July statement indicates that the level of urgency for the next cut is lower in July than it was in June – implying that some time would be required to assess whether another cut was needed.
I wrote at the time of the release of the July Board minutes: “my experience is that when a central bank decides to pause, it often refers back to previous policy decisions. In the final paragraph of the July minutes, the Board notes “this decision, together with the reduction in the cash rate decided at the previous meeting, would assist in reducing spare capacity in the economy”.
Finally it is worth recalling the final paragraph of the speech which the Governor delivered after the Darwin Board meeting in July when he noted: “So we will be closely monitoring how things evolve over coming months.” The use of the plural (months) seems to be confirmation that there would be no urgency to move as soon as August.
On July 25th, we revised our forecast of the timing of the next rate cut from November to October. In addition we extended the easing cycle to include another, and final, cut, in February next year. We remain comfortable with that view.
The Governor’s Statement next week will be of interest particularly around whether he is planning to move as soon as September. Here we will certainly be interested in whether he persists with the “if needed” qualification. We favour that term still being used implying that, at least at the time of the meeting, the Board expects to hold fire in September.
Other themes will be consistent with the July statement are: strong employment growth but spare capacity in the labour market; housing conditions soft, although tentative signs of stabilisation in Sydney and Melbourne (CoreLogic reported house prices in Sydney and Melbourne lifted by 0.2% in July); inflation pressures subdued, although the central scenario remaining for trimmed mean inflation to be 2% in 2020; and the central scenario remaining for growth to be around trend.
These themes will give us an early signal of the revised forecasts for growth, inflation and unemployment which will be released with the August Statement on Monetary Policy on August 9. These forecasts are critical for gauging the Bank’s approach to policy and he will be testifying to Parliament that same morning.
Recall that when the last set of forecasts was released in May, the RBA forecast GDP growth at 2.75% in both 2019 and 2020. That is a benign outlook given that “trend” is assessed as 2.75%. However it is going to be difficult to credibly maintain the 2019 growth forecast at 2.75%.
Since the May Forecasts were released, GDP growth in the March quarter printed a low 0.4% and the partials for the June quarter are pointing to around 0.5%. A 0.9% read for the first half of the year requires 0.9% quarterly increases in each of the last two quarters.
Now we acknowledge that the second half of 2019 will be stronger than the first half with the benefits of the rate cuts, tax cuts, stabilising of the housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne, and lower AUD; but we certainly do not see growth lifting to an annualised pace outside 2.5-3.0%. It is most likely that the RBA will choose the 3% pace and lower the forecast for GDP growth in 2019 to 2.5% from 2.75%. That would provide a credible base for retaining the 2.75% forecast in 2020. We see the pace at nearer 2.5% in 2019 H2, ultimately pushing the RBA's forecast for 2019 back to 2.25% and 2020 to around 2.5%.
The June quarter Inflation Report provided the RBA with some welcome news. The trimmed mean inflation rate for the quarter printed 0.42%, above the Westpac forecast of 0.3%. This followed a 0.3% in the March quarter. We detected a stronger than expected pass through in clothing, footwear, household goods and cars from the low AUD.
With 0.3% in Q1 followed by 0.42% in Q2, the RBA can, with a large stretch, retain its forecast for the trimmed mean of 1.75% for 2019, making a drift up to 2% in 2020 a reasonable outcome. We expect the trimmed mean in the September quarter to print 0.3% for a rounded 1.5% for 2019. The RBA is likely to confront that reality for the November Statement, forcing it to delay the return of the trimmed mean inflation rate to 2% in 2021. For now, it will most likely continue to declare that trimmed mean inflation will be back within the 2-3% band in 2020.
So far, so good, but the unemployment rate forecast is likely to be a major problem for the RBA. Recall that in May, it forecast the unemployment rate to hold at 5.0% through 2019 and 2020. Unfortunately the rate for June has lifted to 5.24% against a May SOMP forecast of 5.0%. The problem is compounded by the 'rule-of-thumb' amongst economists that above trend growth is required to lower the unemployment rate. At best, the RBA will be forecasting trend growth in 2020, challenging any forecast that the unemployment rate will fall from the current 5.25%.
It will be this tension with the unemployment rate, which we expect to lift to 5.4% by year’s end that will trigger that 0.25% rate cut in October.
This problem will be further complicated for the RBA by market pricing. The forecasts in May already incorporated the two rate cuts in June and July (although markets were envisaging the cuts to come later in the year). The forecasts in August will incorporate a further cut in October (market pricing) and a near full second cut by mid-2020.
If, as we expect, those forecasts will be barely acceptable for growth and inflation and well below the RBA’s “desired” 4.5% for the unemployment rate, then the very least that the RBA can do is to deliver a 25bp October cut and plan to repeat the dose in 2020 H1.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
</body></html>

RBA to hold in August but further cuts forecast in 2019 and early 2020: Bill Evans

<html><body>
Interest rates for investors are finally heading south with the average investor principal and interest rate dropping 35 basis points, according to financial comparison site mozo.com.au.
Falling from 4.76% to 4.41% following consecutive official rate cuts and changes to the APRA cap.
On average an investor with a $300,000 loan taken over 30 years will be $63 a month better off following the cuts.
Mozo Property Expert Steve Jovcevski said, “the RBA’s decision to cut 50 basis points off the official cash rate this year and the removal of the APRA cap on interest only loans has warmed up the paddles of life for property investors."
“It’s encouraging that as well as rate cuts for investors paying principal and interest, we’re seeing a downward movement on interest only loans."
“This time two years ago property investors were staring down average interest only rates of 5.12% and lenders were handcuffed around the volume of loans they could issue by the APRA cap," he added.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/29/Mozo%20Interest%20Rates.JPG" alt="">
Following the RBA’s action on rates this year, Mozo found Westpac made the most significant cuts of the Big 4 banks slicing 35 basis points off its investor interest only rate in June, and 30 basis points in July.
CBA wasn’t far behind with two full 25 basis point cuts.
Jovcevski says, “while this rate relief is welcome news for investors, compared to owner occupiers, they are still in the hurt locker. At a time when rental returns are under pressure, it’s still difficult to lay a solid foundation for investing in property."
“Considering the current average investor interest only rate of 4.52% is still higher than it was before APRA introduced its cap in 2017, the investor loan market still has a lot of room to move in the coming months," Jovcevski concluded.
</body></html>

Interest rates for investors are finally heading south: Mozo.com.au

<html><body>
Over the past week, 14 lenders decreased owner occupier variable rate loans, while 12 providers decreased owner occupier fixed rate loans, according to Canstar.
Greater Bank have introduced new low rates for owner occupier fixed rate loans: 2.79% for a one-year fixed rate, 3.39% for four and five-year fixed rates. 
They also found when looking to investment rates that 12 providers decreased variable investment rates and 10 lenders decreased investment fixed rates.
ANZ and NAB made variable rate decreases of 0.25% and 0.19% respectively; NAB also reduced its fixed rates by between 0.30% and 0.80% for both owner occupier and investment loans.
The tables below display these latest changes:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/15/Canstar%201.png" alt="">
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/15/Canstar%202.png" alt="">
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/15/Canstar%203.png" alt="">
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/15/Canstar%204.png" alt="">
</body></html>

The latest interest rate changes following the RBA cuts: Canstar

<html><body>
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has defended the deeming rate changes as reflecting that some retirees are getting higher rates of return than the very low bank deposits.
“We’re strengthening the arm of around one million welfare recipients,” he told ABC’s Insiders program.
“What’s important to understand is — it’s not a linear equation between or comparison between the cash rate and the deeming rate, because the deeming rate applies to a whole suite of assets.
“So it applies to bank deposits and a term deposit, could be at 1.75 per cent today, but it could apply to superannuation returns, and that’s averaging around 5.5 per cent — or to yields on ASX 200 stocks, which are averaging about 4.5 per cent.”
The changes to deeming rate will deliver a marginally better deal for more than 600,000 aged pensioners and 350,000 welfare recipients on other payments including the disability support pension, parent payments and Newstart recipients with investments.
But the “$800 pension bonus” has been branded disappointing for retirees after it emerged only seniors who don’t own a family home have a chance of securing the full amount.
The changes to pensioners’ deeming rates used to determine investment income for the asset test offers up to $804 for singles and $1053 for couples.
Around 75 percent of aged pensioners will get nothing from the changes to the deeming rate because they don’t have investments in super, shares or bank deposits.
Only seniors who do not own a family home will qualify for the maximum.
The New Daily has confirmed that, for example, ‘Alan’ a single aged pensioner who doesn’t own a family home and has $540,000 in financial assets will secure an extra $30.94 a fortnight or $804.50 a year in Age Pension.
However, if ‘Alan’ owned his own home and had $280,000 in financial investments he would only secure $18.44 a fortnight or $479.50 a year extra.
</body></html>

Home owning seniors won't secure the full $800 pension bonus

<html><body>
Consumer confidence fell over the weekend, an ANZ survey has suggested.
It appears there is a view the latest cut to the cash rate by the Reserve Bank of Australia was a signal of worsening economic conditions.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence index dipped 1.1% from the previous week, with respondents' perception of the economy - including the outlook for the next 12 months - retreating 3.6% and prospects about conditions in the next five years sliding 1.7%.
But the weekly measure of sentiment showed a 3.7% rise in how people felt about their financial condition compared to a year ago.
It was based on about 1,000 face-to-face interviews conducted on Saturdays and Sunday.
Consumer sentiment is still above the average of 114.4 points held since 2014 and the longer term average of 113.1 points since 1990. 
But three out of the five major components of the index fell last week:
<ul>
<li>The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was up from +9.0 points to +13.0 points; </li>
<li>The estimate of family finances over the next year was up from +25.5 points to +27.1 points;</li>
<li>Economic conditions over the next 12 months was down from +7.2 points to +3.3 points;</li>
<li>Economic conditions over the next 5 years was down from +12.8 points to +10.9 points; </li>
<li>The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was down from +40.3 points to +33.8 points. </li>
</ul>
The measure of inflation expectations rose from 3.7% to 3.9%.
NAB's latest business survey also suggested that the business sector has lost significant momentum over the past year with the recent run of results also suggesting that the economy is unlikely to record a significant pickup in growth in Q2.
According to the survey, the weakening in momentum has been broad-based across the business sector over the past year, with all industries having weakened.
Retail also continues to show ongoing malaise, with reported business conditions at a level last seen in the GFC - while manufacturing has also shown steep declines.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/10/NAB%20Business%20Confidence%20June.JPG" alt="">
Alan Oster, NAB Groups Chief Economist said, “business confidence appears to have unwound its spike in May, which we think was driven by a short-term election bounce and increased optimism around a renewed interest rate easing cycle by the RBA."
“While business conditions increased slightly in the month, they remain well below average after trending lower for over a year now. The decrease in conditions has been relatively broad-based across states and industries – suggesting that there has been sector wide loss of momentum over the past year."
“Forward looking indicators suggest that there is unlikely to be a material improvement in conditions over the next few months with forward orders remaining very weak. This suggests the pipeline of demand is weak and is consistent with below average confidence,” Mr Oster concluded.
Sentiment also fell in <a href="/expert-insights/investing/sentiment-falls-4-1-despite-interest-rate-cuts-and-tax-relief-westpac">Westpac's Consumer Sentiment Survey</a>.
</body></html>

Second RBA rate cut dampens consumer confidence: ANZ-Roy Morgan

<html><body>
The rate cut announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia to 1% is a great boost for the housing market but the NSW government must add its support.
The record low RBA interest rate of 1% sets a framework for a boost to the ailing housing market in New South Wales.
The NSW government must use this once in a generation low interest environment to reactivate the ailing housing market in the state. 
Housing approvals have collapsed over the last year and pre sales have also slowed down for new apartment projects.
The federal level is clearly trying to help with the RBA’s rate cut, as well as APRA’s loosening of credit restrictions on bank loans and the re-election of the Morrison Government has lifted confidence in the housing industry.
The missing ingredient is a signal from the NSW government that they want housing supply to continue.
The NSW government now needs to help kick start the industry by reducing the excessive time it takes for approvals, and by delaying the removal of the cap on local infrastructure contributions that could add $50,000 to the cost of a new home.
There also needs to be clarity on the status of various priority / planned precincts that seem to have got caught up in the rezoning process.
The Minister for Planning, Rob Stokes, and the Minister for Housing, Melinda Pavey, need to develop an action plan that can build on the positive environment that is coming from federal decisions.
They may also need to liaise with the federal Minister for Housing, Michael Sukkar.
The Urban Taskforce is keen to work with all levels of government to re-activate the housing industry in New South Wales.
CHRIS JOHNSON is the Urban Taskforce CEO.
</body></html>

Interest Rates

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Interest Rates

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News