Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Interest Rates

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank Board meets next week on September 3.
We expect that the Board will decide to keep rates on hold at the meeting but continue to expect the next rate cut to occur in October.
A key signal around the Governor’s Statement following the decision next week will be whether the Governor continues with the wording “ease monetary policy further if needed”.
“If needed” was used in both July and August and seemed to imply a degree of patience with rates remaining on hold at the August and, we believe, the September meetings.
However, those words were not used in June and we saw a follow up move in July.
If the “if needed” is still used in the Statement then it will not necessarily preclude a move in October – it might be considered prudent to break with that signalling approach but an absence of “if needed” will certainly be very encouraging for our October view.
October has some advantages – we saw the response in the Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index to consecutive cuts in June and July, with Sentiment actually falling by 4% following the July cut only to recover by 3.6% after rates were on hold in August. This result is likely to have impressed upon the RBA the need to avoid a policy response, such as consecutive months or a 50 basis point move, that might unnecessarily unnerve households.
We are aware that the Governor is concerned about global developments and probably would like to retain some flexibility to respond to an unexpected global shock – better to cut rates in October and allow flexibility to move again in December rather than delay until November and have to do consecutive November/ December moves.
There also seems little reason to delay beyond October – we know that the August inflation, wages, and unemployment forecasts were revised down despite assuming two more rate cuts – one in 2019 and one in early 2020.
We do not expect any further downward revisions in November that might require an immediate policy response.
The forecasts also embed a lift in growth momentum in 2019 from 2% (annualised in 2019 H1) to 2.75% in 2019 H2.
The June quarter GDP report will print the day after the September Board meeting. In our preview we expect that Q2 will print 0.5% growth, including consumption growth of 0.4% up from 0.3% in the March quarter.
We think this report is unlikely to impact any decision for an October cut since the real question around GDP will be the extent to which spending responds to the rate cuts in June/July; a lower AUD; the tax offset payments, which are now rolling out ($7.7 billion); the election result and the lift in auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne.
This information is unlikely to be sufficiently clear by November to justify waiting until then.
In this note I also wanted to comment on some of our other financial market forecasts.
We are not anticipating further sharp falls in fixed interest rates.
The Australian 3 year swap rate has now fallen to 0.70% - 30 basis points below cash but only around 30 basis points above the expected terminal cash rate. That compares with around 50 basis points that the swap rate averaged over the 1.5% cash rate that held between August 2016 and June 2019. That period was marked by expectations of rate increases, although those expectations faded badly by the second half of 2018. Nevertheless we are now dealing with the expectation of an incredibly flat curve even when markets resume some form of equilibrium.
For those reasons our current swap rate forecasts envisage the swap rate holding around current levels despite further rate cuts from the RBA.
The current shape of the curve is likely also influenced by the market’s expectation that some form of QE may impact the term premium. Such policy could be implemented by the RBA (a direct asset purchase program) or via the banks (through direct funding from the RBA which flows on to other rates).
Of course the other way that current swap rates could fall further would be through an even lower terminal cash rate than the 0.5% which we currently envisage. To be sure, a package of QE and a cut to 0.25% would significantly lower swap rates further.
There are similar considerations for the 10 year bond rate. The bond rate has fallen to 0.90% - around 50 basis points above the market’s terminal cash rate, of around 0.4%. That compares with a margin of around 100 basis points between the 10 year bond rate and the steady 1.5% cash rate in the 2016-2019 period. Without an even lower terminal cash rate or some QE program by the RBA (directly or through the banks) it seems a stretch to expect any further sustained falls in that bond rate despite two more rate cuts coming from the RBA.
The comparison with the US is interesting. The market’s terminal federal funds rate is now around 0.9% by early 2021. A current US 10 year bond rate of around 1.5% is largely in line with our expected equilibrium margin in Australia of 50 basis points.
Westpac’s forecasts for the terminal cash rate in Australia are now broadly in line with the market. While our current federal funds rate forecast currently entails three more cuts in 2019 followed by some stability at a federal funds rate of 1.375%, the speed that we envision this easing is more aggressive than market pricing of 2½ cuts by end 2019 and therefore consistent with the US bond rate staying down at these levels for the rest of this year.
In 2020, we are certainly not expecting a recession in the US despite the inverted 2-10 year bond curve signal. US 10 year rates are distorted by the negative bond rates in Europe and Japan, and indeed, that also partly explains the unprecedented flat curve relative to the market’s expected terminal federal funds rate which we highlighted earlier. Instead, we look to a more cautious White House in 2020 as the Presidential election nears. However we do acknowledge that the FOMC might eventually move even closer to the cash rates in other markets as US economic growth drops below potential in 2020 and 2021.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

RBA to hold next week, but expect October rate cut: Bill Evans

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe has said two things about unemployment in the past few weeks. Together, they lead to an inescapable conclusion.
The first was in a speech in <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-05-21" target="_blank">May</a>, expanded on in a speech in <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-06-20" target="_blank">June</a>. At both times the published unemployment rate was 5.2%.
Lowe said in May that while the Reserve Bank had long thought an unemployment rate of 5% was the best that could be achieved without generating worrying inflation, that view has now changed:
From today’s perspective, I think we can do better than this. My judgement of the accumulating evidence is that the Australian economy can support an unemployment rate of below 5% without raising inflation concerns.
It was good news. And then it got better.
In June he put a number on how low the unemployment rate could go before inflation became a concern:
While it is not possible to pin the number down exactly, the evidence is consistent with an estimate below 5%, perhaps around 4.5%. Given that the current unemployment rate is 5.2%, this suggests that there is still spare capacity in our labour market.
The Reserve Bank should be able to cut interest rates until unemployment fell below 5% and approached 4.5% without worrying about inflation, Lowe argued.
And in May, in a report back from a board meeting, he made it clear that’s what he would do:
At that meeting, we discussed a scenario in which there was no further improvement in the labour market and the unemployment rate remained around the 5% mark. In this scenario, we judged that inflation was likely to remain low relative to the target and that a decrease in the cash rate would likely be appropriate.
It would likely be appropriate to cut interest rates and keep cutting until the unemployment rate was driven below 5%, continuing to cut until it approached 4.5%.
Today, appearing before the House of Representatives economics committee in Canberra with the unemployment rate still stuck at 5.2% despite two consecutive rate cuts, he delivered what on the face of it was bad news.
He said the bank’s central forecast was that the unemployment rate would stay above 5% again <a href="https://rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-08-09" target="_blank">until 2021</a>. That’s right, 2021.
But taking the two statements together, it is reasonable to conclude that the Reserve Bank will keep cutting rates until unemployment does fall below 5%. In other words, it will keep cutting rates until 2021.
<h2>Lowe ain’t done cutting…</h2>
Indeed, the Reserve Bank’s <a href="https://rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2019/aug/pdf/economic-outlook.pdf" target="_blank">quarterly forecasts update</a>, released as Lowe spoke, countenances that happening. As foreshadowed by the governor, it forecasts that the unemployment rate won’t fall back to 5% until June 2021.
And it contains several other unwelcome forecasts: economic growth of just 2.5% this year, down from a previously forecast 2.75%, and very weak inflation this year of just 1.75%, down from a previously forecast 2%.
<hr>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287473/original/file-20190809-144888-lxfnms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287473/original/file-20190809-144888-lxfnms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> <a class="source" href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2019/aug/" target="_blank">RBA Statement on Monetary Policy, August 9, 2019</a>
<hr>
But here’s the thing. All of those forecasts were compiled, as is the Reserve Bank’s custom, by taking into account not only the two interest rate cuts that have already happened (and have taken the bank’s cash rate down to an all-time low of 1%), but also two more yet to be delivered.
It is explained in the footnote:
Technical assumptions set on 7 August include the cash rate moving in line with market pricing.
The “market pricing” is the consensus of the bets placed on the futures market for what the Reserve Bank is going to do to its cash rate.
The consensus is for another cut of 0.25% in October and then another cut of 0.25% in February, taking the cash rate down to yet another all-time low of just 0.5%.
<hr>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287484/original/file-20190809-144838-1xymcob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287484/original/file-20190809-144838-1xymcob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> <a class="source" href="https://www.asx.com.au/prices/targetratetracker.htm" target="_blank">ASX target rate tracker</a>
<hr>
The Reserve Bank is normally at pains to point out that this is a mere technical assumption, not a guarantee of how it will move rates. But the awful truth is that its forecasts imply that unless it cut rates two more times in coming months, unemployment won’t fall to 5% by 2021, and inflation will be even weaker than the incredibly weak 1.75% it is forecasting.
<h2>…and he might not stop at zero</h2>
Two more cuts in its cash rate will take it to 0.5%, close to zero.
Lowe revealed that the Reserve Bank is investigating so-called “unconventional” monetary policy or <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/commrep/eea5d0b8-72e9-4b5e-acf8-52ed46888ced/toc_pdf/Standing%20Committee%20on%20Economics_2019_08_09_7100.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf" target="_blank">quantitative easing</a> that would have the same effect as taking the cash rate below zero.
“It is prudent for us to have done the work in advance to see what we would do – it’s really contingency planning,” he said.
Rates might go to zero, or below, worldwide because right now there is a worldwide glut of savings, and not enough investment.
The reality we face is that, if a lot of people want to save and not many people want to use those savings to build new capital, savers are going to get low returns. We can move our interest rates around this new structurally lower level,but we can’t escape the fact that global interest rates are low.
The Reserve Bank’s best case is that its Australian forecasts are wrong - that unemployment actually falls and that inflation, wage growth and economic growth climb.
There’s a respectable view within the bank that this might happen. Its forecasts take into account a range of positive influences, including lower interest rates, the recent tax cuts, the depreciation of the Australian dollar, a brighter outlook for investment in the resources sector, some stabilisation in the housing market, and ongoing high levels of investment in infrastructure.
But they are the result of a mechanical model that takes them into account individually. The governor’s hope is that, taken together, they will achieve more than is forecast.
He would like governments themselves to push things along, starting with the wages they pay their own employees, and he is becoming ever more bold about saying so:
Most public sectors have wage caps of 2.5%, some have 1.5%, I think in Western Australia it’s probably even lower. I can understand why governments are doing that. On the other hand, the wage caps in the public sector are cementing low wage norms across the country. Over time, I hope the whole system, including the public sector, could see wages rising at three point something.
He is as good as powerless to stop what he regards as a worldwide investment strike caused by the trade and technology disputes between the United States and China.
These disputes pose a significant risk to the global economy. Not only are they disrupting trade flows, but they are also generating considerable uncertainty for many businesses around the world. Worryingly, this uncertainty is leading to investment plans being postponed or reconsidered.
Lowe doesn’t believe further interest rate cuts would to do much to encourage businesses to invest, or to encourage home buyers to borrow.
But he is certain they will help in other ways.
They will lower the exchange rate, making Australian goods and services more competitive, and that they will free up the cash of Australians who already have home loans, what he calls the “cash flow” channel:
There is no evidence that has become less effective. It is certainly true that in the current environment, at least in my view, monetary policy is less effective than it used to be. In today’s environment people don’t run off to the bank to borrow more when interest rates fall; they are more likely to pay back their mortgage more quickly. So that dynamic is different than it used to be.
When he last appeared before the parliamentary committee in February he said the probabilities of rates going up and rates going down were <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/commrep/b9c7ee3a-c926-4f3e-acc4-cf5b8809f649/toc_pdf/Standing%20Committee%20on%20Economics_2019_02_22_6971_Official.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf#search=%22committees/commrep/b9c7ee3a-c926-4f3e-acc4-cf5b8809f649/0000%22">evenly balanced</a>. He didn’t say that today.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709" target="_blank">Peter Martin.</a>, Visiting Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292" target="_blank">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/rba-update-governor-lowe-points-to-even-lower-rates-121690" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Governor Lowe points to even lower rates: Peter Martin

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The RBA kept rates on hold at the August meeting, following back to back rate cuts to bring the official cash rate down to a record low one percent.
It had previously stood at a historic low 1.5% before the latest cuts. The rate hadn't been cut since August 2016 when it was brought down from 1.75%.
Today the RBA have released their chart pack, which highlights key factors in the Australian economy.
Property Observer takes a look at four key charts which will have been strong influencers in the decision to cut the official interest rate.
Consumer Price Inflation ticked up slightly
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/8/Consumer%20Price%20Inflation%20RBA.jpg" alt="">
Australia's Consumer Price Index rose 0.6 percent over the June quarter, slightly higher than expectations. 
The CPI rose 1.6 per cent through the year to the June quarter 2019, after increasing 1.3 per cent through the year to the March quarter.
Westpac had been <a href="/expert-insights/investing/cpi-forecast-to-rise-for-june-quarter-westpacs-justin-smirk">forecasting a 0.5% rise</a> in the June quarter CPI, taking the annual pace to a 1.5% rise from 1.3%.
IFM economist Alex Joiner says the figures were a slight upside surprise, however it is inline with expectations on core measures. 
Household disposable income rose slightly, but it's not translating into increased consumption yet.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/8/Household%20Income%20and%20Consumption%20RBA.jpg" alt="">
Disposable income has bucked its steady, ongoing decline after it nearly hit 0%. 
Consumption has carried on declining, but the RBA will be keen to see disposable income rise given the recent rate cuts.
Consumer sentiment continues to rise
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/8/Consumer%20sentiment%20RBA.jpg" alt="">
Consumer sentiment continued its upward trend following the federal election outcome having dipped below the average index earlier in the year.
It is now equalling, and bettering, levels in boom time 2015 and 2016.
Housing prices starts to rebound.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/8/Housing%20Prices%20RBA.jpg" alt="">
House prices have started to stabilise after a long downward trend which saw them approach 10% declines.
Statistics from the ABS, APM, Residex and CoreLogic all show a turnaround.
To download the full chart pack in full, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/pdf/chart-pack.pdf?v=2019-08-08-09-10-56" target="_blank">click here</a>.
 
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

The four charts that prompted the RBA keep rates on hold in August

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The RBA has held the cash rate at a record low one percent at its August meeting.
The decision follows slightly <a href="/expert-insights/investing/cpi-rises-0-6-percent-in-june-quarter">higher inflation than predicted</a> for Q2 2019.
RBA Governor Philip Lowe said most housing markets remain soft, although there are some signs of a turnaround, especially in Sydney and Melbourne.
CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless says the decision to hold the cash rate was expected.
"The pause in the cutting cycle will give the RBA time to assess the effects of earlier rate cuts on the economy and consumer spending, however there is a strong likelihood of at least one more cut later this year," Lawless says.
"The housing market has been a key beneficiary of lower mortgage rates, with a trend towards stability over the first half of the year converting to a subtle rise in capital city housing values in July. 
"With mortgage rates set to remain low for an extended period of time, as flagged by RBA Governor Lowe in a speech last month, and potentially move even lower later this year, we are expecting to see the housing market move into a gradual recovery, however with credit policies remaining tight and economic uncertainty still elevated, we aren’t expecting a material acceleration in housing activity or housing values."
Finder's latest RBA Survey found that economists and experts predicted small gains across every capital city market.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said it's too soon to tell if this is an emerging recovery in the housing market or merely a 'dead-cat bounce'.
“In finance, the saying is that even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from great heights," Cooke says.
“Most economists surveyed foresee small levels of growth across the board, but a few tipped prices to tumble, especially in Sydney and Melbourne where one expert predicted a 7% drop.
“Whether you see this as a falling feline or the beginning of a true rebound, it’s clear that the full effects of the RBA’s recent cuts have yet to play out.
<img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/881b878c-2e84-4824-9ea6-abb2854b4aa9.png" width="610" height="443">
“However, after one of the strongest weekend clearance rates in Sydney in recent months (71%), there is definitely a detectable pulse,” Cooke said.
Canberra is expected to be the best performer with 2.27% gains. Sydney and Melbourne are looking at 1.48% and $1.57% gains respectively.
Cooke said those considering getting on the property ladder need to get their ducks in a row.
“Prospective first time buyers should look at arranging pre<a href="https://finder.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499&amp;id=72671b9013&amp;e=f2176dbcf8" target="_blank">-</a>approval for finance soon if they want to take advantage of low rates before prices increase.”
<div><img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/2027eefe-611e-46ff-974f-dd622ad3779f.png" width="613" height="445"></div>
<div>
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

RBA holds rates after two consecutive cuts

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The RBA meets on August 6 and releases the Statement on Monetary Policy on August 9. We think it is quite unlikely that the Board will decide to do a third consecutive cut at this meeting but remain comfortable with our view that the RBA will deliver additional 25bps cuts in October and February.
The Reserve Bank Board meets on August 6 to consider whether to extend the sequence of rate cuts in June and July for another month.
We think it is quite unlikely that the Board will decide to do a third consecutive cut at this meeting.
Following the cut in July, the Governor noted, “The Board will continue to monitor developments in the labour market closely and adjust monetary policy if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time".
That statement compared with the June statement, “The Board will continue to monitor developments in the labour market closely and adjust monetary policy to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time".
The inclusion of the term “if needed” in the July statement indicates that the level of urgency for the next cut is lower in July than it was in June – implying that some time would be required to assess whether another cut was needed.
I wrote at the time of the release of the July Board minutes: “my experience is that when a central bank decides to pause, it often refers back to previous policy decisions. In the final paragraph of the July minutes, the Board notes “this decision, together with the reduction in the cash rate decided at the previous meeting, would assist in reducing spare capacity in the economy”.
Finally it is worth recalling the final paragraph of the speech which the Governor delivered after the Darwin Board meeting in July when he noted: “So we will be closely monitoring how things evolve over coming months.” The use of the plural (months) seems to be confirmation that there would be no urgency to move as soon as August.
On July 25th, we revised our forecast of the timing of the next rate cut from November to October. In addition we extended the easing cycle to include another, and final, cut, in February next year. We remain comfortable with that view.
The Governor’s Statement next week will be of interest particularly around whether he is planning to move as soon as September. Here we will certainly be interested in whether he persists with the “if needed” qualification. We favour that term still being used implying that, at least at the time of the meeting, the Board expects to hold fire in September.
Other themes will be consistent with the July statement are: strong employment growth but spare capacity in the labour market; housing conditions soft, although tentative signs of stabilisation in Sydney and Melbourne (CoreLogic reported house prices in Sydney and Melbourne lifted by 0.2% in July); inflation pressures subdued, although the central scenario remaining for trimmed mean inflation to be 2% in 2020; and the central scenario remaining for growth to be around trend.
These themes will give us an early signal of the revised forecasts for growth, inflation and unemployment which will be released with the August Statement on Monetary Policy on August 9. These forecasts are critical for gauging the Bank’s approach to policy and he will be testifying to Parliament that same morning.
Recall that when the last set of forecasts was released in May, the RBA forecast GDP growth at 2.75% in both 2019 and 2020. That is a benign outlook given that “trend” is assessed as 2.75%. However it is going to be difficult to credibly maintain the 2019 growth forecast at 2.75%.
Since the May Forecasts were released, GDP growth in the March quarter printed a low 0.4% and the partials for the June quarter are pointing to around 0.5%. A 0.9% read for the first half of the year requires 0.9% quarterly increases in each of the last two quarters.
Now we acknowledge that the second half of 2019 will be stronger than the first half with the benefits of the rate cuts, tax cuts, stabilising of the housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne, and lower AUD; but we certainly do not see growth lifting to an annualised pace outside 2.5-3.0%. It is most likely that the RBA will choose the 3% pace and lower the forecast for GDP growth in 2019 to 2.5% from 2.75%. That would provide a credible base for retaining the 2.75% forecast in 2020. We see the pace at nearer 2.5% in 2019 H2, ultimately pushing the RBA's forecast for 2019 back to 2.25% and 2020 to around 2.5%.
The June quarter Inflation Report provided the RBA with some welcome news. The trimmed mean inflation rate for the quarter printed 0.42%, above the Westpac forecast of 0.3%. This followed a 0.3% in the March quarter. We detected a stronger than expected pass through in clothing, footwear, household goods and cars from the low AUD.
With 0.3% in Q1 followed by 0.42% in Q2, the RBA can, with a large stretch, retain its forecast for the trimmed mean of 1.75% for 2019, making a drift up to 2% in 2020 a reasonable outcome. We expect the trimmed mean in the September quarter to print 0.3% for a rounded 1.5% for 2019. The RBA is likely to confront that reality for the November Statement, forcing it to delay the return of the trimmed mean inflation rate to 2% in 2021. For now, it will most likely continue to declare that trimmed mean inflation will be back within the 2-3% band in 2020.
So far, so good, but the unemployment rate forecast is likely to be a major problem for the RBA. Recall that in May, it forecast the unemployment rate to hold at 5.0% through 2019 and 2020. Unfortunately the rate for June has lifted to 5.24% against a May SOMP forecast of 5.0%. The problem is compounded by the 'rule-of-thumb' amongst economists that above trend growth is required to lower the unemployment rate. At best, the RBA will be forecasting trend growth in 2020, challenging any forecast that the unemployment rate will fall from the current 5.25%.
It will be this tension with the unemployment rate, which we expect to lift to 5.4% by year’s end that will trigger that 0.25% rate cut in October.
This problem will be further complicated for the RBA by market pricing. The forecasts in May already incorporated the two rate cuts in June and July (although markets were envisaging the cuts to come later in the year). The forecasts in August will incorporate a further cut in October (market pricing) and a near full second cut by mid-2020.
If, as we expect, those forecasts will be barely acceptable for growth and inflation and well below the RBA’s “desired” 4.5% for the unemployment rate, then the very least that the RBA can do is to deliver a 25bp October cut and plan to repeat the dose in 2020 H1.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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RBA to hold in August but further cuts forecast in 2019 and early 2020: Bill Evans

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Interest rates for investors are finally heading south with the average investor principal and interest rate dropping 35 basis points, according to financial comparison site mozo.com.au.
Falling from 4.76% to 4.41% following consecutive official rate cuts and changes to the APRA cap.
On average an investor with a $300,000 loan taken over 30 years will be $63 a month better off following the cuts.
Mozo Property Expert Steve Jovcevski said, “the RBA’s decision to cut 50 basis points off the official cash rate this year and the removal of the APRA cap on interest only loans has warmed up the paddles of life for property investors."
“It’s encouraging that as well as rate cuts for investors paying principal and interest, we’re seeing a downward movement on interest only loans."
“This time two years ago property investors were staring down average interest only rates of 5.12% and lenders were handcuffed around the volume of loans they could issue by the APRA cap," he added.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/29/Mozo%20Interest%20Rates.JPG" alt="">
Following the RBA’s action on rates this year, Mozo found Westpac made the most significant cuts of the Big 4 banks slicing 35 basis points off its investor interest only rate in June, and 30 basis points in July.
CBA wasn’t far behind with two full 25 basis point cuts.
Jovcevski says, “while this rate relief is welcome news for investors, compared to owner occupiers, they are still in the hurt locker. At a time when rental returns are under pressure, it’s still difficult to lay a solid foundation for investing in property."
“Considering the current average investor interest only rate of 4.52% is still higher than it was before APRA introduced its cap in 2017, the investor loan market still has a lot of room to move in the coming months," Jovcevski concluded.
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Interest rates for investors are finally heading south: Mozo.com.au

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Over the past week, 14 lenders decreased owner occupier variable rate loans, while 12 providers decreased owner occupier fixed rate loans, according to Canstar.
Greater Bank have introduced new low rates for owner occupier fixed rate loans: 2.79% for a one-year fixed rate, 3.39% for four and five-year fixed rates. 
They also found when looking to investment rates that 12 providers decreased variable investment rates and 10 lenders decreased investment fixed rates.
ANZ and NAB made variable rate decreases of 0.25% and 0.19% respectively; NAB also reduced its fixed rates by between 0.30% and 0.80% for both owner occupier and investment loans.
The tables below display these latest changes:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/15/Canstar%201.png" alt="">
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/15/Canstar%202.png" alt="">
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/15/Canstar%203.png" alt="">
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/15/Canstar%204.png" alt="">
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The latest interest rate changes following the RBA cuts: Canstar

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Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has defended the deeming rate changes as reflecting that some retirees are getting higher rates of return than the very low bank deposits.
“We’re strengthening the arm of around one million welfare recipients,” he told ABC’s Insiders program.
“What’s important to understand is — it’s not a linear equation between or comparison between the cash rate and the deeming rate, because the deeming rate applies to a whole suite of assets.
“So it applies to bank deposits and a term deposit, could be at 1.75 per cent today, but it could apply to superannuation returns, and that’s averaging around 5.5 per cent — or to yields on ASX 200 stocks, which are averaging about 4.5 per cent.”
The changes to deeming rate will deliver a marginally better deal for more than 600,000 aged pensioners and 350,000 welfare recipients on other payments including the disability support pension, parent payments and Newstart recipients with investments.
But the “$800 pension bonus” has been branded disappointing for retirees after it emerged only seniors who don’t own a family home have a chance of securing the full amount.
The changes to pensioners’ deeming rates used to determine investment income for the asset test offers up to $804 for singles and $1053 for couples.
Around 75 percent of aged pensioners will get nothing from the changes to the deeming rate because they don’t have investments in super, shares or bank deposits.
Only seniors who do not own a family home will qualify for the maximum.
The New Daily has confirmed that, for example, ‘Alan’ a single aged pensioner who doesn’t own a family home and has $540,000 in financial assets will secure an extra $30.94 a fortnight or $804.50 a year in Age Pension.
However, if ‘Alan’ owned his own home and had $280,000 in financial investments he would only secure $18.44 a fortnight or $479.50 a year extra.
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Home owning seniors won't secure the full $800 pension bonus

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Consumer confidence fell over the weekend, an ANZ survey has suggested.
It appears there is a view the latest cut to the cash rate by the Reserve Bank of Australia was a signal of worsening economic conditions.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence index dipped 1.1% from the previous week, with respondents' perception of the economy - including the outlook for the next 12 months - retreating 3.6% and prospects about conditions in the next five years sliding 1.7%.
But the weekly measure of sentiment showed a 3.7% rise in how people felt about their financial condition compared to a year ago.
It was based on about 1,000 face-to-face interviews conducted on Saturdays and Sunday.
Consumer sentiment is still above the average of 114.4 points held since 2014 and the longer term average of 113.1 points since 1990. 
But three out of the five major components of the index fell last week:
<ul>
<li>The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was up from +9.0 points to +13.0 points; </li>
<li>The estimate of family finances over the next year was up from +25.5 points to +27.1 points;</li>
<li>Economic conditions over the next 12 months was down from +7.2 points to +3.3 points;</li>
<li>Economic conditions over the next 5 years was down from +12.8 points to +10.9 points; </li>
<li>The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was down from +40.3 points to +33.8 points. </li>
</ul>
The measure of inflation expectations rose from 3.7% to 3.9%.
NAB's latest business survey also suggested that the business sector has lost significant momentum over the past year with the recent run of results also suggesting that the economy is unlikely to record a significant pickup in growth in Q2.
According to the survey, the weakening in momentum has been broad-based across the business sector over the past year, with all industries having weakened.
Retail also continues to show ongoing malaise, with reported business conditions at a level last seen in the GFC - while manufacturing has also shown steep declines.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/10/NAB%20Business%20Confidence%20June.JPG" alt="">
Alan Oster, NAB Groups Chief Economist said, “business confidence appears to have unwound its spike in May, which we think was driven by a short-term election bounce and increased optimism around a renewed interest rate easing cycle by the RBA."
“While business conditions increased slightly in the month, they remain well below average after trending lower for over a year now. The decrease in conditions has been relatively broad-based across states and industries – suggesting that there has been sector wide loss of momentum over the past year."
“Forward looking indicators suggest that there is unlikely to be a material improvement in conditions over the next few months with forward orders remaining very weak. This suggests the pipeline of demand is weak and is consistent with below average confidence,” Mr Oster concluded.
Sentiment also fell in <a href="/expert-insights/investing/sentiment-falls-4-1-despite-interest-rate-cuts-and-tax-relief-westpac">Westpac's Consumer Sentiment Survey</a>.
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Second RBA rate cut dampens consumer confidence: ANZ-Roy Morgan

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The rate cut announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia to 1% is a great boost for the housing market but the NSW government must add its support.
The record low RBA interest rate of 1% sets a framework for a boost to the ailing housing market in New South Wales.
The NSW government must use this once in a generation low interest environment to reactivate the ailing housing market in the state. 
Housing approvals have collapsed over the last year and pre sales have also slowed down for new apartment projects.
The federal level is clearly trying to help with the RBA’s rate cut, as well as APRA’s loosening of credit restrictions on bank loans and the re-election of the Morrison Government has lifted confidence in the housing industry.
The missing ingredient is a signal from the NSW government that they want housing supply to continue.
The NSW government now needs to help kick start the industry by reducing the excessive time it takes for approvals, and by delaying the removal of the cap on local infrastructure contributions that could add $50,000 to the cost of a new home.
There also needs to be clarity on the status of various priority / planned precincts that seem to have got caught up in the rezoning process.
The Minister for Planning, Rob Stokes, and the Minister for Housing, Melinda Pavey, need to develop an action plan that can build on the positive environment that is coming from federal decisions.
They may also need to liaise with the federal Minister for Housing, Michael Sukkar.
The Urban Taskforce is keen to work with all levels of government to re-activate the housing industry in New South Wales.
CHRIS JOHNSON is the Urban Taskforce CEO.
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