Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Interest Rates

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EXPERT OBSERVER
As expected the RBA Board lowered the cash rate by 25 basis points at its October meeting to 0.75%.
Back in July we identified October and February as the likely dates for the next moves. At that time only 3 forecasters out of 24 in the surveys were forecasting an October move and most were not anticipating a terminal rate as low as 0.5%.
We have not changed our forecasts since then and therefore welcome the Governor’s Statement which opens the door for another move.
However we cannot concur with the markets pricing in around a 50% probability of a follow up move in November.
There are a number of reasons for this caution.
Firstly, markets should understand that central banks will usually bias their comments on days on which they make policy changes to justify the decision. We saw some examples of that approach in the Governor’s Statement.
For example, he has, for no reason that is justified by the data, adopted a bolder objective than had been the case before by aiming for “full employment” rather than the more modest, “reduce unemployment” that we saw in September.
With the unemployment rate trending away from his full employment target and, by his own admission, “forward-looking indicators of labour demand indicate that employment growth is likely to slow from its recent fast rate” the introduction of that full employment target as a substitute for the more realistic “reduce unemployment” seems curious and is probably less significant than markets may have assessed.
In full, he noted, “the Board will continue to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time.”
A more significant aspect of that statement is the choice of the term, “if needed” which arguably implies that time will be taken to assess the impact of the three cuts in this cycle before moving again (note that he did not use “if needed” following the June decision which was subsequently followed up by a cut in July.)
We also think the RBA will be mindful of the response of the Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index to the consecutive cuts in June/ July. Following the cut in July the Index fell by 4.1%. There was an apparent “spooking” of the consumer around the policy action.
At the time we noted: “The main driver continues to be deepening concerns about the outlook for the Australian economy and prospects for family finances. The index components show the biggest decline in the sub-index tracking expectations for the ‘economy, next 12 months’ which slumped 12.3% to be down 16.4% since May to its lowest level in four years. Longer term expectations for the economy were also pared back sharply, the ‘economy, next 5 years’ sub-index falling 6.7%.”
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac.
This was first published on <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/40295/52930/" target="_blank">Westpac IQ</a>.
</body></html>

bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Low chance of follow up rate cut in November: Bill Evans

<html><body>
The big four banks have all only passed on part of the RBA's 25 basis point rate cut, keeping a large chunk for themselves.
They've defied treasurer Josh Frydenberg's call for them to pass on the full cut, with further cuts expected in the not too distant future.
CBA and NAB were the <a href="/expert-insights/finance/nab-and-cba-fail-to-pass-on-full-rate-cut">first to cut their rates</a> on Tuesday, with <a href="/expert-insights/finance/anz-cut-interest-rates-by-just-0-14">ANZ</a> and then <a href="/expert-insights/finance/westpac-the-final-big-four-bank-to-fail-to-pass-on-full-rate-cut">Westpac</a> following yesterday.
Investors were the big winners. Investors with interest only investor mortgage's saw their rates get cut the full 25 basis points by ANZ, CBA and NAB. Westpac were the only ones not to pass fully.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/3/Labour%20Market%20Oct%20RBA.jpg" alt=""> The labour market performance was one of the key statistics that drove the RBA to cut rates. Source: RBA
Owner occupiers paying principal and interest on variable rate home loans is the number one market for most banks and home lenders.
The number of fixed home loans is down over 50 per cent since August 2017, a drop from 11,373 to 5,416.
According to Finder.com.au, there has been a near 400 per cent spike in visitors to their pages about breaking from fixed loans.
Following October’s RBA rate cut, there was a 69 per cent spike in visitors across all Finder home loan pages, including a 296 per cent jump in views of the variable home loans page, week-on-week.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said fixed rates seem "less sexy" given there are likely further cuts on the way.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/3/GDP%20Growth%20October.jpg" alt=""> GDP growth continues its downward trajectory. Source: RBA
“In our RBA cash rate survey we found that nearly three-quarters (72%, 26/36) of experts predicted that the cash rate will reach 0.50% before it starts to increase," Cooke said. “Based on all the economic indicators the RBA reviews – employment, inflation, housing, wages – we are likely to be in a low-rate environment for the foreseeable future.  “Unless we see huge drops in fixed loan rates, variable loans will likely stay in vogue,” Cooke said. The lowest current fixed home loan rate sits at 2.79% (Mortgage House and Greater Bank) which is higher than the lowest variable home loan rate on the market at 2.69% (Reduce Home Loans). 
Far and away the biggest cut came from G&amp;C Mutual Bank who cut 50 basis points, taking their variable rate first home-owner loan to 2.79 per cent.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/3/House%20Prices%20Oct%20RBA.jpg" alt=""> House prices have continued to bounce back. Source: RBA
InfoChoice.com.au chief executive Vadim Taube has urged home loan borrowers to check their rate and compare it with other loans in the market. 
“If your lender hasn’t passed on the full RBA rate cut to you, you may like to listen to the treasurer Josh Frydenberg and think about voting with your feet.
“There are plenty of lenders who are passing on the full rate cut to customers and switching loans is getting easier and cheaper all the time. 
“More lenders are going completely online and accepting applications that you can put together on your lounge at home.”  
Who's cut their cash rate?
ANZ
Athena
Auswide Bank
Bank of Melbourne
BankSA
Bankwest
CBA
FreedomLend
Homestar Finance
Macquarie Bank
NAB
Pepper Money
RACQ Bank
RAMS
Reduce Home Loans
St George
Suncorp
UBank
Westpac
 
 
</body></html>

jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Investors fare better, as owner-occupiers miss out on full rate cuts

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Anyone who thought that with the Reserve Bank’s cash rate now close to zero, its run of interest rate cuts was over, needs only to read the last sentence of Governor Philip Lowe’s <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2019/mr-19-27" target="_blank">announcement</a> after Tuesday’s cut:
The Board will continue to monitor developments, including in the labour market, and is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time.
For the longest time, the run of cuts was over.
Lowe’s immediate predecessor, Glenn Stevens, cut the cash rate to a record low of 1.5% in August 2016 as something of a “parting gift”, allowing Lowe to take over and keep it steady, unchanged for a record 34 months.
For most of those three years he made it clear the rate was unlikely to fall further. <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/search/?q=%22rather+than+down%22+lowe+-%22card%22#gsc.tab=0&amp;gsc.q=%22rather%20than%20down%22%20lowe%20-%22card%22&amp;gsc.page=1" target="_blank">Six times</a> he said the next move in rates was likely to be up, “rather than down”, pointing to rate increases overseas and progress on jobs and returning Australia’s unusually low inflation rate to his target band.
By February this year he <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-02-22" target="_blank">was backtracking</a>. Although it wasn’t apparent in the published figures, the unemployment rate was about to begin climbing. Wage growth had been far weaker than forecast, inflation showed no sign of returning to the centre of his target band, and forecasts for global growth were falling.
<hr>
Reserve Bank cash rate
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294952/original/file-20191001-173393-1b2cjw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294952/original/file-20191001-173393-1b2cjw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> <a class="source" href="https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/" target="_blank">Source: RBA</a>
<hr>
More importantly, consumer spending, which accounts for six in every ten dollars spent in Australia, was extraordinarily weak, growing at less than half the usual rate, as households “responded to this extended period of weaker income growth by progressively downgrading their spending plans”.
The probabilities of next move being up and down had become “more evenly balanced”.
Two weeks after the May election he cut the cash rate, then cut it again, taking it to a new record low of 1%, anticipated by <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-surplus-no-share-market-growth-no-lift-in-wage-growth-economic-survey-points-to-bleaker-times-post-election-110315" target="_blank">only two</a> of the 19 economists surveyed by The Conversation just six months earlier.
The extra cut announced on Tuesday is because the last two didn’t do enough.
House prices have begun to move up (as would be expected with lower rates) but borrowing is growing only slowly, and home building is weak. The Australian dollar is low (in part because of the lower rates), which should help make Australian businesses competitive, but they are not keen to borrow.
Since the last Reserve Bank board meeting we have learned that economic growth is <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-weve-the-weakest-economy-since-the-global-financial-crisis-with-few-clear-ways-out-122942" target="_blank">shockingly low</a>, just 1.4% over the past year, the weakest since the global financial crisis. Household spending is barely keeping pace with population growth.
Lowe would like to believe the economy has reached “a gentle turning point”. He told a <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-10-01" target="_blank">community dinner</a> in Melbourne on Tuesday night the board thinks it might have.
There are a number of factors that are supporting this outlook. These include the low level of interest rates, the recent tax cuts, ongoing spending on infrastructure, signs of stabilisation in some established housing markets, and a brighter outlook for the resources sector.
But they will need help. The bank believes the economy is capable of producing an unemployment rate of 4.5%. Instead it has been climbing, to 5.3%.
<h2>How the cuts will help</h2>
The cash rate is determined by the rate the Reserve Bank pays banks who deposit with it overnight. It drives almost every other rate, including the rates banks pay retail depositors, which help determine their cost of lending.
They don’t have to cut their mortgage and business rates in line with cuts in the Reserve Bank cash rate, but they usually do.
The big banks played a game of chicken yesterday, each waiting for the other to move. The Commonwealth Bank moved first, offering just 0.13 of the 0.25 points, followed by the National Australia Bank, which offered 0.15 points.
The real action is in the discounted rates that target borrowers for whom they matter. Before Tuesday they averaged 3.46%. Some were much lower. HSBC Australia wanted just 3.17%. If it passes on Tuesday’s cut in full it will charge only 2.92%, offering the first Australian mortgage rate in history beginning with the number “2”.
There’s every reason to believe the cuts will help. Even if Australians don’t borrow more to buy houses, they will be able to use the historically cheap credit embodied in their house loans to buy other things, such as solar panels whose payoff period will have shortened dramatically.
Since June many mortgage-holders will have saved A$150 on monthly payments.
Sure, confidence and decent wage growth would help, but given how indebted many Australians are, low mortgage rates will do quite a bit on their own.
<h2>Why they’ll continue</h2>
Governor Lowe made it clear on Tuesday that they will have to stay low for “an extended period”. A <a href="https://rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/framework/stmt-conduct-mp-7-2016-09-19" target="_blank">signed agreement with the treasurer</a> requires him to keep them low until unemployment falls and inflation and economic growth return to return to normal levels.
He would like the government to help by boosting spending. He often mentions spending on infrastructure. But his employment contract requires him to use the cards he has been dealt. If the economy is weak, he is required to boost it using the instruments he has.
That’s why he says he is prepared “to ease monetary policy further”.
If needed, he’ll do it as soon as next month, cutting the cash rate to 0.5%. If more is needed beyond that, he will get ready to use so-called <a href="https://theconversation.com/below-zero-is-reverse-how-the-reserve-bank-would-make-quantitative-easing-work-118843" target="_blank">unconventional measures</a> of the kind being used overseas, buying government and corporate bonds in order to force even more money into Australian’s hands.
There’s no reason to believe that the tools he has won’t work, and every reason to believe he’ll keep using them.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124499/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709" target="_blank">Peter Martin</a>, Visiting Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292" target="_blank">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/0-75-is-a-record-low-but-dont-think-for-a-second-the-reserve-bank-has-finished-cutting-the-cash-rate-124499" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

0.75% is a record low, but don’t think for a second the Reserve Bank has finished cutting the cash rate

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Westpac are the last of the big four to fail to pass on the full rate cut.
They've <a href="/expert-insights/finance/nab-and-cba-fail-to-pass-on-full-rate-cut">cut the same amount as NAB</a>, dropping their variable home loan rates by 15 basis points.
Commonwealth Bank drops their rates by just 0.13 per cent, the lowest out of the big four. ANZ were <a href="/expert-insights/finance/anz-cut-interest-rates-by-just-0-14">the third to cut their rates</a>, by 0.14 per cent.
“Westpac will be decreasing interest rates by 15 basis points for variable home loan customers, bringing our Standard Variable Rate (SVR) to the lowest we have on record for owner occupiers with principal and interest repayments,” David Lindberg, Westpac chief executive, consumer said.
“In making the decision, we took into account the reduction of the official cash rate and the commercial pressures of the low interest rate environment.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/2/Westpac%20rate%20cut.jpg" alt="">
“For an owner occupier customer with a standard variable home loan of $400,000 on principal and interest repayments, this reduction could result in a saving of $36 per month, or $432 each year.
“Providing the support and finance to help Australians into their homes is a core part of our business strategy.
"Today’s announcement will assist customers wanting to get ahead on home loan repayments, as well as new home buyers looking to purchase a property,” Lindberg said.
The following interest rate changes will come into effect on Wednesday 16 October 2019:
<ul>
<li>Variable home loan (owner occupier) rate has been reduced by .15% p.a. to 4.83% p.a. for customers with principal and interest repayments.</li>
<li>Variable residential investment property loan rate reduced by .15% p.a. to 5.38% p.a. for customers with principal and interest repayments.</li>
<li>Variable home loan (owner occupier) rate reduced by .15% p.a. to 5.42% p.a. for customers with interest only repayments.</li>
<li>Variable residential investment property loan rate reduced by .15% p.a. to 5.64% p.a. for customers with interest only repayments.</li>
</ul>
 
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Westpac the final big four bank to fail to pass on full rate cut

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The ANZ have followed suit in the so-called battle of the big four banks.
They've only cut their standard variable rates by 0.14 per cent. 
The move follows <a href="/expert-insights/finance/nab-and-cba-fail-to-pass-on-full-rate-cut">CBA cutting 0.14 per cent and NAB 0.15 per cent</a>. 
Westpac have just <a href="/expert-insights/finance/westpac-the-final-big-four-bank-to-fail-to-pass-on-full-rate-cut">cut their rates by 0.15 per cent</a>.
“This was a considered decision balancing the needs of our customers in a low rate environment as well as the performance of our business and our role in stimulating the economy," ANZ Group executive Australia retail &amp; commercial, Mark Hand said.
<ul>
<li>For Standard Variable Rate Owner Occupiers paying Principal &amp; Interest the Index Rate will reduce by 0.14%pa to 4.79%pa</li>
<li>For Standard Variable Rate Investors paying Interest Only the Index Rate will reduce by 0.25%pa to 5.74%pa</li>
</ul>
Changes to variable rates are effective 11 October 2019.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/2/ANZ%20Rate%20Cut.jpg" alt="">
“We were able to match the full rate reduction in July and the majority in June, however the dynamics of record low interest rates has resulted in a reduction in variable home lending rates of between 0.14%pa and 0.25%pa this time around.
“While we recognise many customers will use this as an opportunity to pay down their existing home loans faster, we hope this provides the economic stimulus the Reserve Bank is wanting to generate. 
“We have also announced a new fixed rate of 2.98%pa for home owners paying principal and interest with either two or three year terms available from tomorrow. This is the lowest residential rate on record for ANZ,” Mr Hand said.
The new standard variable rate for owner occupiers paying principal and interest will come in to effect on October 11, bringing it to 4.79 per cent. 
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ANZ cut interest rates by just 0.14%

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Following the RBA cutting the official interest rates to a record low 0.75 per cent, NAB and CBA are the only two of the big four to cut their home loan rates.
They've both heeded pleas from the Prime Minister and have failed to pass on the full 25 basis point cut.
Mozo have calculated the big banks failing to hold back some of the RBA's rate cuts has seen them pocket a $4.7 billion windfall since 2016.
Commonwealth Bank were the first to cut their rates, by just 13 basis points, just over half of the RBA's cut. They are set to make an annual windfall of $334 million by only partially passing on the cut, according to Mozo.
They announced their cut at 6pm, with cuts to take effect from October 22 which will help them pocket $59.9 million by delaying the effective date of their cuts.
CBA passed on the full 0.25 per cent cut to investors paying interest only.
Their lowest variable rate is now 3.22 per cent, the lowest of all the big banks, however Westpac and ANZ are yet to announce their cuts.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/2/CBA%20rate%20cut.jpg" alt="">
RateCity.com.au chief executive Paul Marshall said CBA’s variable home loan customers will be disappointed by the banks’ decision not pass on a bigger cut.
“As a result, the average CBA home loan customer, on the lowest rate will miss out on $26 per month, or $314 per year.
“The banks are between a rock and a hard place when it comes to passing on rate cuts, because it is a balancing act to satisfy their borrowers, savers and shareholders as rates dip closer to zero.” 
“With the cash rate now so close to zero, the banks are attempting to balance the needs of their shareholders, investors and borrowers.
"However, it’s disappointing to see such small cuts being passed on by two of the big banks.” 
NAB followed Commonwealth Bank's announcement, cutting their owner-occupier principal and interest, and interest only mortgage holders, by 15 basis points.
Their partial cut will save them $120.9 million, and the delay of nine days until the new rates come in to affect will add a further $13.7 million to their pockets. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/2/NAB%20rate%20cut.jpg" alt="">
They too passed on a higher rate to investors paying interest only, cutting rates by 0.3 per cent.
The rate cuts are effective from 11 October and are for new and existing customers.
Homestar Finance, Athena Home Loans and Auswide Bank have passed on the full 25 basis point rate cut, while Reduce Home Loans have cut by 20 points.
UBank have also passed on the full cut, with their variable rates dropping 0.25 per cent by October 29.
Pepper Money have also cut, nearly in full. They've cut by 24 basis points.
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NAB and CBA fail to pass on full rate cut

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EXPERT OBSERVER
I welcome today's official cash rate cut, of 25 basis points, from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
A string of soft and underwhelming economic data results (GDP, unemployment and retail sales) ensured that the RBA had to reduce the official cash rate by 25 basis points this month. This pushes the cash rate down to 0.75% leaving little room for further cuts if required.
Given the muted economic effect of the last two rate cuts, the RBA will continue to push its message that more fiscal stimulus is required to boost economic growth – a call out to the government to reassess its expenditure.
We have a situation where the government’s tightening of fiscal policy is working against the RBA’s loosening of monetary policy. The federal government recently announced that the budget was ‘back in balance’ at a time when it needed to be spending more to help businesses create jobs, support household budgets and deliver large infrastructure projects.
Property markets have been one of the few beneficiaries of recent rate cuts with higher levels of buyer demand pushing prices higher, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. The rapid improvement in mortgage affordability has been a key driver of increased buyer enquiry; as interest rates have continued to decline and banks have reduced their serviceability rate, meaning buyers have the ability to borrow more.
The other major driver, pushing up property prices over recent months, has been the low number of properties on the market for sale. Home owners have been reluctant to list their properties due to the lack of choice to relocate. That said, LJ Hooker agents have reported higher levels of appraisals, over the past month, which will result in a higher number of listings over coming weeks as we move into summer.
MATHEW TILLER is LJ Hooker’s head of research
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rhinocombatsports-HJn6ZzTZBc

Government needs to do more than cut interest rates: Mathew Tiller

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<div>
EXPERT OBSERVER
In trend terms, the Internet Vacancy Index decreased by 0.1 per cent in August. The index is 6 per cent lower than a year ago, but it is 9.4 per cent above the level recorded five years ago.
As widely expected, the RBNZ has left the official cash rate unchanged at a record low of 1.00 per cent at its meeting today
Governor Lowe delivered a speech titled “Economic Update.”
The internet job vacancies data is a leading indicator of the job market and therefore important for consumer-focussed stocks and companies. Speeches from the Reserve Bank Governor can provide guidance on interest rate settings. Changes in New Zealand monetary policy settings can affect rates in Australia as well as the sharemarket and currency.
</div>
<div>
What does it all mean?
The Reserve Bank Governor wouldn’t be drawn on the timing of the next rate cut. The rate cut may well be delivered on Tuesday. But if the Bank believes that the economy is indeed turning higher (it has reached a ‘gentle turning point’), the Bank may end up deciding that rate stability is the best source of action in the current environment.
The Governor adopted his usual ‘glass half-full’ approach rather than ‘glass half-empty’. In fact Philip Lowe believes we have a tendency to focus on what could go wrong rather than focus on the ‘tremendous opportunities’. The main concern is that consumers are not spending like they have in the past. And the other area of worry is the fact that investors are choosing to sit on the sidelines. There are plenty of savings but investors are not tapping those funds and investing.
No surprises from Reserve Bank New Zealand. The easing bias still exists. But clearly the ‘jumbo’ or ‘super-sized’ rate cut in August provided the Bank with more time before deciding the next move. Commonwealth Bank Group economists expect the next rate cut in November.
It’s steady as you go on job vacancies. There was little change in vacancies in the past month but the loss of momentum in Sydney and Melbourne gives the Reserve Bank additional scope to cut rates next week. Construction job vacancies continue to ease, reflecting slower home construction. But significant job vacancies continue to exist in Health, Education and personal/community services.
What do the figures show? 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/25/job%20vacancy%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/25/job%20vacancy%201.jpg" alt="">
Skilled Job Vacancies
The Department of Employment Internet Vacancy Index fell by 0.1 per cent in August. The index is 6 per cent lower than a year ago although it is up 9.4 per cent above the level recorded five years ago.
In August 2019: “Job advertisements decreased in four of the eight occupational groups, and remained steady in two. Job advertisements increased for Labourers as well as Community and Personal Service Workers (both up 0.4 per cent).” 
Over the year to August 2019: “Job advertisements fell in six of the eight occupational groups, with the strongest falls recorded for Machinery Operators and Drivers (down by 16 per cent), Sales Workers (down by 12 per cent) and Technicians and Trades Workers (down by 10.7 per cent). Increases were recorded for Community and Personal Service Workers (up by 5.2 per cent) and Professionals (up by 0.3 per cent).
Over the year to August 2019, 12 of the 48 detailed occupational groups recorded increases in job advertisements. “The largest increases were recorded for a range of education and health related occupations such as Education Professionals (up by 1270 job advertisements), followed by Health Diagnostic and Therapy Professionals (570), Medical Practitioners and Nurses (500) and Carers and Aides (480).”
“The largest decrease was recorded for General-Inquiry Clerks, Call Centre Workers, and Receptionists (down by 1220 job advertisements), followed by Sales Assistants and Salespersons (1060), Corporate Managers (1010), Construction, Production and Distribution Managers (860) and Engineering, ICT and Science Technicians (840).”  
 Job vacancies increased in four states and two territories in August: NSW (down 0.7 per cent), Victoria (down 0.2 per cent); Queensland (up 0.2 per cent); South Australia (up 0.6 per cent); Western Australia (up 0.7 per cent); Tasmania (up 1.1 per cent); Northern Territory (up 0.6 per cent); and ACT (up 0.9 per cent).
Over the year to August 2019, job vacancies rose in three states and one territory: NSW (down 12.1 per cent), Victoria (down 7.4 per cent); Queensland (down 2.5 per cent); South Australia (up 3.0 per cent); Western Australia (up 1.6 per cent); Tasmania (up 11.3 per cent); Northern Territory (down 4.3 per cent); and ACT (up 11.9 per cent).
Over the year to August 2019, in three month moving average terms, job advertisements decreased in 19 of 37 regions. “The strongest decreases in job advertisements were recorded in Sydney (down by 15.4 per cent), followed by Gosford &amp; Central Coast NSW (down 11.2 per cent), NSW North Coast (down 10.9 per cent), Melbourne (down 9.4 per cent) and Gold Coast (down 8.3 per cent).”
“The strongest increases were recorded in Port Augusta &amp; Eyre Peninsula, SA (up 32.5 per cent), Yorke Peninsula &amp; Clare Valley, SA (up 30.2 per cent), Fleurieu Peninsula &amp; Murray Mallee, SA (up 18.9 per cent), Hobart &amp; Southeast Tasmania (up 15.6 per cent) and South West WA (up 15.3 per cent).”
Reserve Bank Governor Speech
The speech can be found here: <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-09-24" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-auth="NotApplicable">https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-09-24.html</a>
Interest rates: “Further monetary easing may well be required. While we are at a gentle turning point and expect growth to pick up, the strength and durability of this pick-up remains to be seen.”
Interest rates: “At our Board meeting next week, we will again take stock of the evidence. It is nevertheless likely that an extended period of low interest rates will be required in Australia to make progress in reducing unemployment and achieving more assured progress towards the inflation target. The Board is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, make further progress towards full employment, and achieve the inflation target over time.”
In the Question &amp; Answer segment, the Governor said that ‘nirvana’ would be inflation near 2.5 per cent, wage growth near 3.5 per cent, the job market at ‘full employment’ (near 4.5 per cent) and the economy displaying ‘decent’ productivity growth. 
Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/25/job%20vacancy%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/25/job%20vacancy%202.jpg" alt="">
 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/25/job%20vacancy%203.png" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/9/25/job%20vacancy%203.png" alt="">
RBNZ has held the official cash rate at a record low of 1.00 per cent at its meeting today, as widely anticipated by economists.  
The Monetary Policy Committee “agreed that new information since the August Monetary Policy Statement did not warrant a significant change to the monetary policy outlook.”
On jobs and inflation: “Keeping the OCR at low levels is needed to ensure inflation increases to the mid-point of the target range, and employment remains around its maximum sustainable level.”
On the outlook for monetary policy: “There remains scope for more fiscal and monetary stimulus, if necessary, to support the economy and maintain our inflation and employment objectives.”
Commonwealth Bank Group economists expect another 25 basis point rate cut in November.
What is the importance of the economic data?
The Department of Employment releases a monthly Internet Vacancy Index. The index is based on a count of online job advertisements newly lodged on three main job boards (SEEK, CareerOne and Australian JobSearch) during the month. The index is the only publicly available source of detailed data for online vacancies, including around 350 occupations (at all skill levels), as well as for all states/territories and 37 regions.
Reserve Bank Governor speeches give a guide to policymaker thinking on interest rate settings. 
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
Financial markets believe that rates will be cut next Tuesday. But whether its Tuesday or a month or two later, the Reserve Bank Governor believes that is reasonable to assume that further rate cuts lie ahead given that inflation is below the 2-3 per cent target band.
Lower interest rates will keep the Aussie dollar near US67-68 cents. And that lower Aussie dollar is good news for Australian businesses, especially exporters. Lower interest rates will also provide support for consumer-focussed stocks on the sharemarket.
The lack of momentum on job vacancies points to slower employment ahead and thus giving the Reserve Bank further reason to be cutting interest rates.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/25/job%20vacancy%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/25/job%20vacancy%204.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/25/job%20vacancy%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/25/job%20vacancy%205.jpg" alt="">
Ryan Felsman is a senior economist at CommSec
Craig James is the chief economist at CommSec.
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Australian Economy remains far from Philip Lowe's 'Nirvana': CommSec's Craig James 

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ANZ Bank are the second of the big four to cut their savings rates in the last week.
They've cut their savings rates by up to 0.10 per cent, bringing their ongoing rate to 0.10 per cent, the worst of the big four.
ANZ also have the lowest introductory rate at 1.85 per cent for the first three months.
Big four banks standard savings account: Source RateCity <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/24/Bank%20savings%20rates.jpg" alt="">
Westpac cut their ongoing rate by 0.10 per cent last week.
Sally Tindall, research director at <a href="http://ratecity.com.au/">RateCity.com.au</a>, said banks had begun to slash rates ahead of a further cut to the cash rate, which could come as soon as next week.
“ANZ and Westpac customers will now find it just that little bit harder to squeeze any sort of interest out of their bank,” she said.
“In many cases, ANZ customers are earing ongoing rates of just 0.10 per cent on their standard savings accounts, which makes them little more than a safe place to park your money.
“ANZ customers with a conditional savings account can get up to 1.85 per cent interest, but if they forget to meet the banks terms and conditions, it drops to as little as 0.01 per cent.
“Savers around the country are doing it incredibly tough, and for many its enough to throw their hands up in the air.
“That said, it’s still worth shopping around for a decent rate. <a href="http://ratecity.com.au/">RateCity.com.au</a>’s database shows some banks are still willing to offer ongoing rates of up to 2.50 per cent.
“Two of the banks offering ongoing rates of 2.50 per cent are neo banks, which suggests it could pay to look outside the box,” she said.
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ANZ cut savings rates as banks anticipate looming RBA cash rate cut

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EXPERT OBSERVER
As expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.0% at today’s meeting.
The all-important final paragraph is slightly changed from the previous August decision statement and the minutes of the August meeting (“The board will continue to monitor developments, including in the labour market, and ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time”).
Given that Westpac is expecting the Board to cut rates by a further 25bps at the next meeting in October, we would have liked to have seen the term “if needed” excluded from the decision statement. As discussed in our preview to today’s decision, the term “if needed” could be interpreted as requiring more time than one month to decide on the next cut. However (realistically) the Board should not lock itself into a specific strategy one month out from the next meeting. By maintaining the “if needed” qualification, it provides itself with flexibility.
General commentary in the decision statement is very similar to the August decision statement. The most important changes are to be somewhat guarded on housing markets, “further signs of a turnaround in established housing markets”, but to also point out that construction activity has weakened.
There is also less apparent confidence in the growth and unemployment forecasts. The 2½ per cent forecast for GDP growth in 2019, which was explicitly noted in August, was not mentioned, although the expected return to trend growth “over the next couple of years” is noted. In August, the Governor’s decision statement specifically referred to the unemployment rate edging back to 5% “over the following couple of years”. That forecast was also not repeated in today’s decision statement.
Other themes that are consistent with the August statement are: risks are tilted to the downside for the global economy; “further monetary easing is widely expected” for a number of central banks; “Australian dollar is at its lowest level of recent times” (USD 0.6770 in August, down to USD 0.6700 in September); main source of domestic uncertainty remains the outlook for consumption; a further gradual lift in wages growth would be a welcome development; and “inflation pressures likely to remain subdued for some time yet” (new description).
Conclusion
With less confidence around the economic forecasts and recognition about the weakening activity in the residential construction sector, this decision statement is marginally more downbeat than the statement in August.
With the emphasis consistently on the labour market in both statements, the monthly employment reports remain important. However, other factors are also key to the October decision.
Firstly, it is likely that tomorrow’s GDP report for the June quarter will show the economy had less momentum than had been expected by the RBA at the time of the August meeting (detailed forecasts imply a GDP growth rate of 0.8% was expected for the June quarter). And while the Governor backs away from the 2½ per cent growth forecast for 2019, there still appears to be a heavy dose of optimism around the general growth outlook. If Westpac’s forecast for GDP growth in the June quarter of 0.5% proves to be correct, then the RBA is likely to need to revise down its growth forecast of 2½ per cent for 2019 and reasonably review the 2¾ per cent forecast for 2020
Secondly, it is clear that the RBA values the weakening of the AUD. We expect that by the time of the October meeting, the US Federal Reserve will have further cut the federal funds rate, and, in turn, lessening the impact on the AUD of recent rate cuts by the RBA, clearly signalling the need for further action.
Thirdly, a cut in October leaves options open for a further cut in December should conditions, particularly in global markets, point to the need for even lower rates. Leaving the next move to November reduces the RBA’s flexibility, given that a cut in December would represent back-to-back moves. As measured by the Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment index, the back-to-back moves in June and July unnecessarily unnerved households.
All these arguments, on balance, point to another cut in October being the best way for the RBA to stay ahead of the curve and provide further downward pressure on the AUD.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist for Westpac 
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