Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Housing Market

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Home prices are expected to have increased by around 1.5 per cent in Sydney and Melbourne in August when the final data is released by CoreLogic on Monday. Property sentiment has improved. Better sentiment is evidenced by a jump in auction clearance rates to 2-year highs – pointing to a lift in demand on the back of lower mortgage rates.
And there is more policy certainty, together with an easing in lending criteria from the bank regulator.
That said, listings, turnover and volumes remain low with the Spring selling season a key catalyst for the outlook for the market.
While housing market conditions are improving, the broader residential property market remains challenging for home builders – especially the apartment markets in Sydney and Melbourne – which have seen double-digit annual declines in council consents.
The value of building approvals on an annual rolling basis is still above the decade average, but the number of new homes approved to be built has fallen to the lowest level since January 2013.
The continued slowdown in dwelling investment will continue to act as a drag on broader economic activity and hiring intentions for tradies and construction workers continue to weaken. And concerns about building defects could crimp investor demand for new apartments in Sydney and Melbourne, despite an improvement in lending conditions.
Solid population growth, location appeal of apartments near amenities and transport hubs, lower borrowing costs, improved access to credit for housing borrowers and rising home prices should help eventually stabilise building approvals. Approvals should level-out and modestly lift next year as property developers continue to acquire sites.
Private sector credit &amp; APRA data (July)  
<ul>
<li>Private sector credit (effectively outstanding loans) rose by 0.2 per cent in July after 0.1 per cent growth in June. </li>
<li>Annual credit growth fell from 3.3 per cent in June to an 8- year low of 3.1 per cent in July.</li>
<li> Housing credit grew by 0.3 per cent in July. And the annual growth fell from 3.5 per cent to 3.3 per cent – the slowest growth rate on record. </li>
<li>Owner occupier housing credit rose by 0.5 per cent in July to stand 4.9 per cent higher over the year – equalling the weakest annual growth rate in the past five years. </li>
<li>Investor housing finance fell in July with annual growth the slowest on record at 0.3 per cent. </li>
<li>Personal credit fell by 0.4 per cent in July after declining by 0.3 per cent in June. Lending fell by 3.7 per cent over the year – the biggest annual decline in almost a decade. </li>
<li>Business credit rose by 0.2 per cent in July after a flat result in June. The annual growth rate fell from 4.1 per cent to an 11-month low of 3.9 per cent. </li>
<li>The M3 money aggregate rose 0.4 per cent in July (strongest growth in four months) and Broad Money also lifted by 0.4 per cent. Annual growth of the M3 money aggregate rose from 3.9 per cent to 4.1 per cent with Broad Money annual growth rate up from 4.0 per cent to 4.2 per cent. </li>
<li>Loans and advances by banks grew by 4.0 per cent in the year to July, up from 3.4 per cent in the year to June (the slowest growth rate in 27 years). </li>
<li>Deposits at deposit-taking institutions rose by 1.2 per cent in July.</li>
<li>According to APRA, loans by deposit taking institutions to households via credit cards fell from $39.2 billion to a near 9-year low of $38.6 billion in July. Credit card lending is down by a record 5.0 per cent over the year (biggest fall in 14 years).</li>
</ul>
Building Approvals
<ul>
<li>Council approvals to build new homes fell by 9.7 per cent in July to 12,944 units – the weakest level in 6½ years. Approvals are down by 28.5 per cent over the year.</li>
<li>House approvals fell by 3.1 per cent in July and apartment approvals fell by 19.6 per cent. </li>
<li>In trend terms, overall approvals fell by 3.2 per cent in July, the 20th straight fall. </li>
<li>Over the past year 182,321 new homes were approved (decade average 195,365) – the lowest number of new approvals in 5½ years. </li>
<li>Dwelling approvals across states/territories in July: NSW (down 17.5 per cent); Victoria (down 24.3 per cent); Queensland (up 10.9 per cent); South Australia (up 34.8 per cent); Western Australia (up 5.8 per cent); Tasmania (up 21.5 per cent). Trend terms: Northern Territory (flat); ACT (down 22.4 per cent). </li>
<li>The value of all commercial and residential building approvals fell by 7.3 per cent in July to be down 19.9 per cent on the year. Residential approvals fell by 5.4 per cent in July; new building fell by 6.2 per cent; alterations &amp; additions rose by 0.4 per cent. Commercial building fell by 9.9 per cent.</li>
<li>Over the year to July, building approvals totalled $111.9 billion, up 13.6 per cent above the decade average</li>
</ul>
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
<ul>
<li>The latest data provides little in terms of fresh direction. Demand for homes has lifted after the election, as shown by home price data. But few are rushing to architects to get new projects off the ground. Both new building and home prices should recover gently over the coming year. </li>
<li>Private sector credit (effectively outstanding loans) responds with a lag to activity in the economy. New loans are added to the stock of loans and old loans get paid down and paid out over time. But credit growth will lift modestly as owner-occupiers and investors respond to a firmer housing market and as more confident business start investing again following the election</li>
</ul>
The Commonwealth Bank Group expects two further rate cuts in November 2019 and February 2020.
CRAIG JAMES is CommSec's Chief Economist
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Housing to stabilise, Credit card debt slides: CommSec's Craig James

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Australians are feeling more optimistic about purchasing a home, according to new research from Westpac.
Just over half of all participants suggested that they felt more confident about the housing market than they did 12 months ago, while 53% stated they were eager to take advantage of record low interest rates.
Those who already owned at least one home were the most optimistic demographic, with almost three quarters (71%) feeling more confident about the market than last year, and two thirds (66%) believing now is a good time to purchase their next home.
The primary motivations for those signally an intention to invest in the current housing market were (1) low interest rates (20%), (2) falling house prices (18%), and (3) the desire to live in a new area (17%).
The study also indicates that Australians are significantly more likely to be looking to buy a new home to live in themselves (37%), particularly for the sake of upsizing (24%) – these figures have more than doubled since 2018.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/Subscriber%20strip%20ad.jpg" alt=""></a>
“Record low interest rates have created a positive environment for home owners to not only get ahead on their mortgage repayments, but to also purchase their next home,” said Will Ranken, the general manager of home ownership at Westpac.
The findings showed relief might be on the way with Australian home owners now 50% more likely to sell their home compared to last year, with one in ten (10%) intending to sell in the next 12 months.
“We’ve seen a recent rise in auction clearance rates, so it could be an opportune time for sellers to capitalise on growing demand, particularly in the lead up to spring; the time of year when house hunters tend to be the most active,” said Ranken.
A limitation of investment options was the primary concern of participants in the study, with almost one in five (18%) next home buyers feeling challenged by a lack of property supply listed on the market.
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

Australians are feeling more optimistic about the housing market: Westpac

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
The national housing market has just experienced its largest downturn in dwelling values since at least the 1980s.
The fact that values nationally fell by less than 10% speaks to the ongoing strength of the housing market over the past 40 years which has culminated in Australia being one of the most expensive places in the world in which to buy property.
Since the federal election in May, there have been ongoing signs of improving market conditions.
This has been driven by a number of factors including: an unexpected win by the Coalition in the federal election which removed uncertainty about changes taxation policies relating to investment, two 25 basis point cuts to interest rates, tax cuts for low income earners and an easing of some of the previous lending restrictions that were in place.
While there are clear signs of improving conditions, many point to the fact that the very low volume of sales in the market indicate that the recovery is not real or unsustainable.
While that could very well prove to be true if/when stock levels rise, the truth of the matter is that in a downturn, sales volumes typically fall and subsequently, the early stages of a housing recovery are usually characterised by low volumes of sales.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/23/CL%20Recovery%201.JPG" alt="">
The above chart shows the monthly volume of settled sales for dwellings nationally, together with the rolling three month change in dwelling values nationally. The dotted line represents 0% change, so anything below means that values are falling and anything above is indicative of growth. What becomes quite clear from the data is that when values are declining, sales volumes typically fall and increasing values typically leads to higher volumes.
What is also evident is that the market doesn’t respond immediately, when values start rising, initially at least, it isn’t necessarily occurring in concert with a rise in sales volumes. Even recent examples in the 2009 and 2011 market recoveries show this to be the case.
This is precisely what is occurring at the moment, specifically in Sydney and Melbourne where housing conditions are improving following a sharp downturn.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/23/CL%20Recovery%202.JPG" alt="">
Another way to look at how a housing market recovery starts out with low sales volumes is the auction market.
Coming out of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), values nationally started to lift in January 2009. Equally, the above chart shows how auction clearance rates bounced however, this bounce occurred with very low volumes of auctions taking place.
Equally, the housing recovery which started in early 2012 saw a relatively low number of auctions occurring right through until early 2013. It is a similar story right now with auction clearance rates having bounced higher since the middle of May, yet the volume of properties going to auction remaining quite low.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/23/CL%20Recovery%203.JPG" alt="">
Finally, you can only really take to auction or purchase what is available for sale. One of the major reasons why transaction volumes remain so low is because there is very little actually available for sale. The number of new listings nationally (new listings are anything not previously advertised for sale over the past 6 months) are the lowest they’ve been at this time of year for many years and are -18.9% lower than they were last year.
Total listings are also lower than they’ve been at this time of year for many years and are -4.4% lower than they were a year ago.
Auction volumes have certainly fallen much more than volumes in the general market however, as housing market conditions have softened, vendors have become much more selective about which properties are appropriate to be taken to auction.
Notwithstanding that, as we have seen in the past you can’t say that an increase in dwelling values is not sustainable just because the volume of stock either selling or going to auction is low.
Ultimately, you can only transact that which is actually available for sale and at this point there is not a lot of stock available for sale. Of course as we enter spring that may change and a higher volume of stock for sale may prove to snuff out any increases in housing values but at this stage the improving trend is quite real.
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

The signs of a market recovery: CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher

<html><body>
The Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has acknowledged that lower interest rates had pushed up Sydney housing prices during the 2012 to 2017 boom.
"I think that’s pretty clear," he acknowledged when recently addressing our federal politicians.
But he went onto say there were other things that were "probably more important over the past decade".
"They go to population growth and the slow response to that on the supply side," he said. 
Lowe pinpointed that population growth picked up in Australia quite a lot and it took almost a decade for the rate of growth of the supply to respond to that.
He added he was raising the topic in the context of the next phase in the housing market.
"Because what we’re seeing at the moment is quite strong population growth, which I think is good, but the additions to supply of the housing stock are slowing right down.
"New development is slowing down, and one of the issues we’re going to keep a very close eye on over the next little while is what the supply of housing is doing.
"If developers cannot get financed, the supply of housing will slow a lot and we will be sowing the seeds for the next upswing."
The property market is a dynamic entity, always evolving.
One of the great marketing tools bandied about the market is that strong population growth is an indicator of future price growth.
But not just by itself as the governor advises this point fails to heed the impact of supply and demand.
Australia's population stands at around 25.4 million, up 404,000 in 2018.
The ABS calculates one birth every 1 minute and 40 seconds, one death every 3 minutes and 19 seconds, one person arriving to live in Australia every 56 seconds, one Australian resident leaving Australia to live overseas every 1 minute and 53 seconds, leading to an overall total population increase of one person every 1 minute and 13 seconds.
NSW's population sits at just over eight million, up 1.6% last year.
Victoria recorded the highest growth rate of all states and territories at 2.2%. The Northern Territory recorded the lowest growth rate at -0.4%.
Capital city growth accounted for 79% of Australia's total population growth. The capital city with the largest increase in population was Melbourne (119,400 people), followed by Sydney (up 93,400 to around 5.2 million) and Brisbane (50,100).
The fastest growing Sydney localities were around Riverstone, Marsden Park, Cobbitty, Leppington, Rouse Hill and Beaumont Hills.
Taking a look at dwelling approvals, which of course don't all get undertaken, Australia's new housing pipeline currently sits at a five-year low.
The rolling yearly total sits around 199,000, official figures show.
The peak was 232,000 approvals in 2015.
It hasn't been lower than 100,000 nationally since 2001.
There were 180,000 plus peaks in the mid-70s, late 80s, mid-90s, 2000 to 2004 and 2011.
It was running at around 70,000 in the 1950s. 
NSW's approvals peaked in 2017 at around 70,000.
Housing markets are not homogeneous across Australia’s states and territories, or even in neighbouring suburbs.
The relationships between housing markets and the broader demographic shifts are complex, although conventional wisdom does suggest house prices are primarily influenced by the factors headlined by interest rates, building activity and population growth.
When house prices move in an ‘abnormal’ way it is often because one or more of these drivers become distorted relative to their ‘normal’ settings.
This article was first published in the Saturday Telegraph.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Low interest rates alone don't explain house price boom – demographics are also key

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The national dwelling value increased for the first time in nearly two years, according to CoreLogic's Home Value Index for July.
Having seen 0.1 percent declines over June, values were up 0.1 percent over July.
The last time the national value index recorded gains was in September 2017 when values rose 0.3%.
July saw a continued bounce back in house prices in the two biggest capital city markets, Sydney and Melbourne.
Sydney's house value rose 0.2% over July, with unit values increasing 0.3%. Melbourne saw the same gains in houses but a 0.4% jump in unit values.
Only three of the eight capital cities recorded losses in dwelling values. Perth was the biggest hit, with 0.5% declines over July, driven by units which saw 1.1% declines.
Canberra had losses of 0.3%. Houses were down -0.3% and units 0.5%, while Adelaide also saw 0.3% dwelling declines, -0.8% in units and -0.3% in houses. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/1/CoreLogic%20July%20Index%20Results.jpg" alt="">
Corelogic head of research Tim Lawless says since peaking the national index is down 8.3%, but it seems to have found a floor.
“Our national dwelling value index may have found a floor in July, with dwelling values holding firm over the month following a consistent trend towards smaller month-on-month declines through the first half of the year," Lawless said.
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“The stabilisation in housing values is becoming more broadly based, with five of the eight capital cities recording a subtle rise in values over the month, while the regional areas of South Australia, Tasmania and Northern Territory also recorded a lift in housing values in July.” 
Lawless suggests a number of factors are supporting the turnaround in housing conditions, however lower mortgage rates, improved access to credit, a boost in housing market confidence post the federal election and recent tax cuts are likely the primary drivers.
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Other factors include improvements in housing affordability and a reduction in advertised supply levels. 
“All of which is creating a stronger selling position for vendors,” Lawless added.
Darwin saw the best gains over July, a 0.4% dwelling value increase driven by both houses (+0.4%) and units (+0.5%).
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Perth downturn continues, but Sydney and Melbourne carry on resurgence: CoreLogic

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Melbourne house prices are expected to significantly outperform units in the medium to long term, according to Moody's Analytics.
They forecast the Greater Melbourne area's house values to increase by a 1.3% in 2020 and make a large recovery of 6% in 2021, after a -10.8% decline in 2019. 
Moody's said the fall in values has been most pronounced in Melbourne’s inner suburbs, where house values have fallen as much as 21% from their peak
The decline of unit values across Greater Melbourne has been less pronounced than for detached houses.
Similar to the detached house market, however, unit values have also displayed tentative signs of improvement.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/27/Melbourne%20Moodys%201.JPG" alt="">
House values in Melbourne-Inner East have edged up since April, while the pace of declines has slowed noticeably in Melbourne-Inner South and Melbourne-South East.
"Notably, dwelling fixed investment declined for the second straight quarter, with the fall in residential building approvals suggesting further weakness ahead," the report said.
"Indeed, housing finance commitments in Victoria, including those for construction of new dwellings continue to fall from year-ago levels.
"In 2019 Melbourne Inner East, Inner South and Outer East are expected to experience the largest declines, with home values forecast to fall by 13.9%, 14.9% and 12.7%, respectively."
By early 2020, house values across most of Greater Melbourne are forecast to experience a return to month-on-month growth.
Overall, Greater Melbourne house values are expected to tick up 1.3% in 2020, with Melbourne-Inner East and Melbourne-North East leading the recovery.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/27/Melbourne%20Moodys%202.JPG" alt="">
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Melbourne house values to recover 7.3% in two years: Moody's Analytics

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
New home sales in May bounced back to their highest monthly level in over a year.
The HIA New Home Sales report – a monthly survey of the largest volume home builders in the five largest states – provides an early indication of trends in the residential building industry.
The pickup in sales during May follows lacklustre results throughout the first four months of 2019.
Federal Elections always impact market confidence and the discussion around new tax imposts on investors through an increase in Capital Gains Tax magnified this uncertainty in the first part of the year.
This month’s result confirms our expectation that the decline in building activity will start to level off in the second half of 2019 and stabilise at a level below the highs achieved back in 2017.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/2/New%20Home%20Sales%20June.JPG" alt="">
 
The resurgence in home sales was evident across all five states covered by the New Home Sales survey, suggesting a broad based improvement in housing market sentiment around the country. 
An easing of the credit squeeze, lower interest rates and an expectation that APRA will implement reforms to mortgage lending guidelines are also factors supporting the lift in sales activity.
The slow start to 2019 has seen intense competition amongst home builders. The lift in sales shows that more homebuyers are seeing opportunities in this competitive trading environment.
Income tax cuts, solid population growth and accelerating wage growth are necessary to ensure that the market does not decline further.
New home sales jumped in all four major states, up by 54.2 per cent in New South Wales, by 34.0 per cent in Western Australia, by 26.0 per cent in Queensland, by 25.3 per cent in Victoria and by 0.9 per cent in South Australia.
TIM REARDON is HIA’s Chief Economist
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New home sales bounced back: HIA's Tim Reardon

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EXPERT OBSERVER
After falling by 8.5 per cent in 2018 new home sales appear to have stabilised in the first quarter of 2019.
The HIA New Home Sales report – a monthly survey of the largest volume home builders in the five largest states – provides an early indication of trends in the residential building industry.
Given the rapid decline in new home sales throughout 2018, this moderation in the fall in new home sales suggests that the credit squeeze is easing as the market adjusts to the new lending norms,.
The credit squeeze impacted the market at a time when the natural housing cycle was already beginning to cool.
Banks reduced the amount of money they were willing to lend and the time it took to get a loan approved blew out. The market is now showing signs of adjusting to the new levels of lending.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/5/2/PNHS%20-%20AUS%20-%20HIA.JPG" alt="">
 
Three of the five mainland states experienced a significant increase in new homes sales on the previous month, reversing some of the declines experienced in 2018.
There is uncertainty surrounding the federal election, which typically subdues new home sales and approvals as investors and owner occupiers put decisions on hold until after the election.
The election result will rectify this uncertainty but the potential for higher taxes on housing means a post-election rebound in sales may not eventuate.
The HIA New Home Sales report for March shows that across the state’s New South Wales (4.8 per cent), South Australia (8.6 per cent) and Western Australia (2.3 per cent) all experienced an increase in new home sales compared to the previous month.
Queensland experience a decrease of 4.7 per cent and Victoria was down by 2.9 per cent on the month of February.
GEORDAN MURRAY is a Senior Economist for HIA
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New home sales show signs of stabilising: HIA's Geordan Murray

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The Sydney price recovery could be just one or two cash rate cuts away.
That's a real possibility based on the latest research of no-less, the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Their researchers found falling interest rates was the chief catalyst behind the huge surge in prices between 2012 and 2017.
“We find that low interest rates — partly reflecting lower world long-term rates — explain much of the rapid growth in housing prices and construction over the past few years," RBA economist Trent Saunders and RBA senior research manager Peter Tulip noted.
Their modelling of the Australian housing market sought to quantify the inter-relationships between prices, rents, construction and vacancies.
They found the building boom seen in recent years would not have been as pronounced were it not for the lower borrowing costs and higher prices prompting a supply response from developers.
Another demand factor, high immigration, helped explain the tight housing market and rapid growth in rents.
“The model estimates that the reduction in real interest rates (actual interest rates, less inflation) accounts for most of the boom in dwelling prices and a large part of the boom in dwelling investment,” said the researchers in their 35 page report.
It is not the official view of the board that sits in judgement on the first Tuesday of the month, but the insights are going to shape the timing and speed of any next move in the cash rate.
The speculation of the rate cut hit the mainstream in early this year when Shane Oliver, the chief economist at AMP Capital, raised the prospect.
Oliver noted home price weakness was at levels where the RBA started cutting rates in 2008 and 2011 and the 2015-16 property slowdown was also turned around by rate cuts in May and August 2016.
"Ongoing home price falls in Sydney and Melbourne will depress consumer spending as the wealth effect goes in reverse and so homeowners will be less inclined to allow their savings rate to decline," Oliver noted.
The RBA rate cut whisperer Bill Evans at Westpac chimed in last month expecting the Reserve Bank to cut the cash rate by 25bps in both August and November this year.
Evans noted headwinds for the housing market and activity were also apparent in developments around credit.
Evans noted there was less lending demand and supply, after concerns around falling prices and stretched affordability and lending supply being hit by new regulations and caution from some lenders in a falling market.
Evans anticipates unlike the response of the property markets in 2016 to two rate cuts that he does not expect that these two cuts will immediately stabilise housing markets.
Last week NAB's Alan Oster who said the RBA outlook for a further fall in unemployment to gradually lift wages and ultimately inflation is increasingly in doubt.
He therefore expects the RBA to provide some further support to the economy in the form of lower interest rates.
Oster anticipates in July and November. 
While the RBA research will contribute to the commentary, there's little risk that home prices will rise rapidly.
The introduction of tougher lending standards towards household expenses and outstanding debt held by individual borrowers ought make sure of this.
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The Sydney price recovery could be just one or two cash rate cuts away

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Housing finance approvals posted a further decline in Jan, albeit a slightly milder one than in previous months for owner occupiers.
The total number of owner occupier loan approvals ex refi declined 1.2%mth, slightly better than the consensus forecasts of a 2% decline. As always, January housing data should be treated with caution due to the summer holiday disruptions. Approvals are still weak on a year ago, down 13.6%. Notably, what was initially an investor-led cycle is now seeing clear weakness in owner occupier activity – both the value and number of loans.
The value of investor loans ex refi posted a larger 4.1%mth fall, this component showing no real moderation, the decline in line with falls over the previous five monnths. The monthly value of loans to this segment is now down 28.6%yr.
The combined total value of housing finance approvals across both owner occupier and investor segments (and excluding refi) declined 2.1%mth to be down 20.6%yr.
Construction finance approvals fared a little better, dipping just 0.2% in the month but still down over 15%yr. Approvals for the purchase of newly built dwellings, including 'off the plan apartment sales' were down sharply though, –9.5%mth, –27.6%yr and a 4yr low.
By state the number of owner occupier approvals excl refi showed the biggest falls in NSW (–4.9%mth, –18.3%r) and Qld (–2.4%mth, –16.6%yr), with approvals down only 0.7%mth in WA and SA, and up slighly in Vic (+0.4%mth, –15.4%yr) and Tas (+2.4%mth, +10.6%yr), the latter the only state seeing gains on a year ago.
Overall, the January update was soft but not quite as soft as expected for owner occupier activity. However, given the less reliable nature of January housing data this is not enough evidence to signal a shift in the clear weakening trend over the second half of 2018.
Other more recent market indicators suggest weak conditions have extended into the new year. Auction clearance rates have been around the low 50s for Sydney and and high 40s for Melbourne. As noted in our recent <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/37494">article</a>, both markets are seeing abnormally high pre-auction withdrawal rates at the moment.
Adjusting for this (and allowing for preliminary and seasonal bias), the latest weekly clearance rates are around 48% for Sydney and 46% for Melbourne. While low, these are somewhat improved from reads late last year which were in the 30s and low 40s respectively.
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac
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