<p data-end="587" data-start="368">Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.</p>

<p data-end="778" data-start="589">The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.</p>

<p data-end="907" data-start="780"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.</p>

<p data-end="1052" data-start="909">The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.</p>

<p data-end="1311" data-start="1054">The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.</p>

<p data-end="1451" data-start="1313">The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.</p>

<p data-end="1676" data-start="1453">MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.</p>

<p data-end="1908" data-start="1678">Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910">The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910"><img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" /></p>

<p data-end="2308" data-start="2144">MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="2648" data-start="2310">"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.</p>

<p data-end="2797" data-start="2650">"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."</p>

<p data-end="2938" data-start="2799">The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.</p>

<p data-end="3216" data-start="2940">Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.</p>

<p data-end="3325" data-start="3218">Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.</p>

<p data-end="3442" data-start="3327">"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.</p>

<p data-end="3662" data-start="3444">"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."</p>

<p data-end="3818" data-start="3664">MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="4076" data-start="3820">"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.</p>

<p data-end="4375" data-start="4078">"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."</p>

<p data-end="4503" data-start="4377">Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.</p>

<p data-end="4741" data-start="4505">"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."</p>

<p data-end="4910" data-start="4743">The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.</p>

<p data-end="4951" data-start="4912">MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

<main data-perf-region="main">
<p data-end="600" data-start="394">Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.</p>

<p data-end="733" data-start="602">But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]</p>

<p data-end="1159" data-start="972">The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.</p>

<p data-end="1357" data-start="1161">It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.</p>

<p data-end="1664" data-start="1517">Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]</p>

<p data-end="2045" data-start="1828">Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2269" data-start="2047">"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.</p>

<p data-end="2430" data-start="2271">A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.</p>

<p data-end="2606" data-start="2432">It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.</p>

<p data-end="2724" data-start="2608">At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]</p>

<p data-end="3004" data-start="2894">Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.</p>

<p data-end="3214" data-start="3006">"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]</p>

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
</main>


Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

<p>A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.</p>

<p>Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.</p>

<p>Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]</p>

<p>The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.</p>

<p>Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.</p>

<p>Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]</p>

<p>Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.</p>

<p>The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.</p>

<p>“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]</p>

<p>“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”</p>

<p>The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]</p>


Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

<p data-end="535" data-start="324">Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.</p>

<p data-end="717" data-start="537">The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.</p>

<p data-end="918" data-start="719">The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920">PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" /></p>

<p data-end="1318" data-start="1133">Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.</p>

<p data-end="1433" data-start="1320">The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.</p>

<p data-end="1658" data-start="1591">A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.</p>

<p data-end="1864" data-start="1660">More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866">The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" /></p>

<p data-end="2191" data-start="2013">The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.</p>

<p data-end="2365" data-start="2193">PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.</p>

<p data-end="2473" data-start="2367">“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.</p>

<p data-end="2775" data-start="2475">“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”</p>

<p data-end="2943" data-start="2777">The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.</p>

<p data-end="3145" data-start="3001">PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.</p>


PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

<p>Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.</p>

<p>The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.</p>

<p>That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.</p>

<p>The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.</p>

<p>A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.</p>

<p>Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.</p>

<p>While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.</p>


First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Housing Market

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<div>Although commentary often tends to focus on the dollar value of loans written in the housing market (which in the case of Sydney have been going through the roof) the actual number of home loans being written in Australia on a monthly basis is still some way below the levels seen across 2006-8. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Sydney home loan volumes have even been tracking well below where they were in 2003 when the headount of the harbour city was considerably smaller, though the past two months of figures have recorded a big surge which is not yet fully reflected in the trend data. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Looking at the high level figures the trend in home loan volumes has generally been up for the three most populous states since 2012, but transaction volumes can hardly be said to be high compared to where they have been in the past. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Volumes have been trending down in Western Australia since July 2014, while the trend in the Northern Territory for want of a better word has "crashed" by a third since September and is threatening to soon take out the lowest levels seen in more than a decade. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Home loan activity levels in South Australia are...flatlining. </div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/09/15/HF1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/09/15/HF1.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div><span>A similar pattern is also evident when looking at the below chart of home loans by property type, with home loans to purchase established properties in a multi-year uptrend but still not even close to previous heights.</span></div>
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<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Stamp</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are a number of reasons for these muted home loans volumes, not least the more significant market share of investors seen through this cycle in Sydney and Melbourne in particular.</div>
<br><span>I'll offer another: stamp duty.</span><br><br><div>With rising property prices already pushing the boundaries of detached housing affordability in Sydney and Melbourne close to breaking point, stamp duty - a levy which is ratcheted up as the purchase price increases - acts as a further disincentive to trade.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This has long been an issue in London at the premium end of the market, where plainly ridiculous<a href="https://www.gov.uk/stamp-duty-land-tax/residential-property-rates" target="_blank"> </a>rates of stamp duty above GBP 925,000 absolutely discourage buying and selling, and instead encourage owners to sit on prime location sites for as long as they feasibly can. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I can't speak for others, but certainly whenever I've written a stamp duty cheque to the OSR the last thing I am thinking of is subsequently selling a property, and indeed neither my wife nor I have ever sold a property in 19 years, in part for that very reason.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While stamp duty can serve one useful purpose in making the market more stable and less attractive to "flippers", it also discourages labour market mobility and creates a royal pain in the tail for homeowners who are required relocate for work. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Arguably both homeowners and investors are becoming more inclined to such buy and hold strategies while accepting that there will be inevitable market downturns, in part because the transaction costs are so punitive: buy, hold, and hold some more. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">First homebuyers</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>On a related note, the share of first homebuyers loans in the market has trended down to 15.4 per cent, which is at least a couple of full percentage points below what was seemingly becoming the norm before the financial crisis struck (whereupon market incentives led to an enormous spike in first homebuyer market share). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>We know that the data may be incompete, but affordability - and specifically the deposit hurdle - is playing an obvious role here too, nudging a proportion of first time buyers towards buying an investment property as a first step onto the housing ladder instead of a place of residence. </div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/09/15/HF3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/09/15/HF3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Stamp duty is a key consideration for first homebuyers or new market entrants too.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It is often said or implied that first homebuyers should start with an entry level property and then look to trade up later, but with the average first homebuyer <strong>loan</strong> <strong>size </strong>now passing $340,000, new entrants to to the market must be seriously considering how many times in their lives they want to be trading property. I know that I would be. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/15/HF4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/09/15/HF4.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Dwelling starts to peak in 2015</span></strong><br><br><div>A number of forecasts and indicators have suggested that dwelling starts could peak in 2015, and the new dwellings data does not contradict them, although with so many new builds being sold offshore to Asia through this cycle arguably this data series is a less useful indicator than it once was. </div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/09/15/HF2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/09/15/HF2.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div>
<span>Construction loans written to owner-occupiers have also been trending down in recent months.</span><br><br><div>On the other hand the rise in property prices and associated equity gains has for some time been predicted to cause a renovations boom. Certainly this is what we witnessed through 2003 as the preceding Sydney market boom approached its peak. </div>
<br><div>There has already been a decent uplift in renovations activity in Sydney, but the "alts &amp; adds" figures to date have barely even hinted at much going on elsewhere. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/15/HF6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/15/HF6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Driving around Brisbane it certainly "feels" as though there is more renovation work underway, but this may just be good old anecdotal evidence giving a bum steer. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Property hot, but volumes not: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>The ABS released its Lending Finance figures for August 2015 this morning.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>August was a weaker month for commercial lending, with the trend estimate declining by -2.1% in the month to $44.1 billion, having peaked at more than $48 billion back in April.<br><br>The trend certainly appears to be softening in sympathy with weak capex intentions surveys and macroprudential measures to trim back property investment loans - but then, that's been said before through this cycle, so time will tell. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the other hand, home lending to owner-occupiers is now trendng up sharply, with the seasonally adjusted result showing a +6.1% leap in August, and the trend estimate bolting +18% higher over the year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Significantly, AMP announced today that it would chop a variable rate home loan package available to owner-occupiers to a highly competitive rate of just 3.99%.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It seems likely that the major banks will be targeting this sector hard in the months ahead.<br><br>Total lending finance has also trended down a little from an April peak.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/13/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/13/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Charted below is what at face value is happening to owner-occupier home loans at the state level, which is to say now apparently burning up in the most populous states.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/13/OwnerOccupiersRolling12m.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/13/OwnerOccupiersRolling12m.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>In obliquely related news, the latest credit card figures from the Reserve Bank showed that Aussies are clearing credit balances more comfortably than before, with balances down over the year and more of us opting to pay off balances by the due date.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Switcheroo</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>For the remainder of 2015, the housing market story will largely be a tale of whether banks and borrowers can find a way to shoehorn owner-occupier lending higher in order to offset any pending declines in investor loans.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In August the answer was seemingly at an emphatic "yes" with investor loans essentially flat at $13.6 billion but owner-occupier commitments ripping more than <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/housing-finance-shock" target="_blank">+6 per cent higher</a> to $20.8 billion. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In this regard, the AMP decision to cut its variable rate to below 4 per cent effective from today appears to be a clear statement of intent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said, the August figures may yet prove be <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/housing-finance-shock" target="_blank">bogus</a> to some extent, and another month or two of data will shed more light. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In the words of one eminent Chief Economist "we can conclude that the figures have suddenly become a lot murkier", while Westpac instead opted for a more canine theme in describing the latest data as "a dog's breakfast".</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall it seems that the macroprudential story has some way to run yet before the waters are de-murkified (or the dog's morning meal is digested). </div>
<br><span>I looked at this in more detail in relation to last week's Housing Finance release </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/housing-finance-shock" target="_blank">here</a><span>.</span><br><br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Investor loans cooling...</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course the flip side to the new-found strength in the homebuyer space is that property investment loans should now be cooling in response to APRA's calming macroprudential measures.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On a rolling annual basis New South Wales originated investor loans climbed to a new high of $67.6 billion, but there have now been two consective months of declines in original terms from the May 2015 monthly peak of $6.6 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although investment loans remained at a high level in Victoria and Queensland, there has been a general cooling of this sector across recent months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/13/LF1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/13/LF1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>Since the investment loans data is not seasonally adjusted I also look at it on a 12mMA basis, and we can see that while the trend in Queensland has risen to its highest level since April 2008, the trend is now falling in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania.</span><br><br><span>In the Northern Territory the trend in investment loans seems to be dropping off a cliff so there is likely to be some fallout for Darwin.</span><br><br><span>More on all of these figures and trends to follow tomorrow.</span><br><br><span>The detailed monthly investor loans figures for New South Wales show loans tracking at $5.53 billion in August, down from the all-time record high of $6.62 billion in June.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/13/LF3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
</div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/13/LF3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Looking at total lending for housing in New South Wales, the total housing market finance for August surpassed $13 billion for the third time, however it could not quite match the record levels seen in June.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/13/LF2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/13/LF2.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The most important release of the week will be the Labour Force data for September on Thursday morning. </div>
<div class="separator">
<br>Expecting to see a flat result for the month, both for total employment and the unemployment rate.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
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The housing market switcheroo: Pete Wargent

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<div>
<em>CoreLogic-RP Data</em> already appears set to report further dwelling price growth in October for Sydney, with prices once again up at a sprightly pace and moving another +$5,300 higher. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There has been plenty of spirited debate in the media about what comes next for house prices in Australia.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Macquarie has suggested that a housing market correction of -7.5 per cent could take place - beginning some time in 2016 before ending in 2017 - while Stockland's Mark Steinert disagrees and sees prices continuing to rise by +3% to +5% through next year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This pretty much tells you everything you need to know about short term property market predictions: one analyst thinks prices will rise, another thinks they'll fall!<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Central Bank</span></strong><br><br>What about the role of the Reserve Bank and monetary policy settings?<br><br>Here's what central bank expert Sophia Rodrigues thinks:</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/14/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-14%20at%2010.14.53%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/14/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-14%20at%2010.14.53%20AM.png" alt="" width="651" height="452"></div>
<div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Long term focus</span></strong><br><br>Property owners would do well to retain a long term outlook rather than waste too much energy on short term dwelling price predictions, which are invariably a hit and miss affair at the best of times.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As for the bubble/crash/correction calls which have continued over the past 15 years or so, Sydney median house prices now need to suffer an enormous correction - a gargantuan fall of $300,000 - even just to get back to where they were a couple of years ago in June 2013, let alone to actually correct from there. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/14/RP%20DATA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/14/RP%20DATA.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Market variances</span></strong><br><br>One thing that can be said with some certainty is that there will be significant variances across the Sydney property market.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Outer suburban auction markets in Sydney have already turned in favour of buyers with clearance rates tanking fast in the west, south west, and north west sub-regions.<br><br>More stringent deposit requirements appear to be biting hard in the outer.<br><br>On the other hand clearance rates have remained relatively elevated for now in the eastern suburbs, the inner west, lower north shore, northern beaches, and the city &amp; inner south.<br><br>
</div>
<div>Higher density markets will also almost certainly fare less happily than the metropolitan averages due to a looming stock overhang.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/14/NSW.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/14/NSW.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>In terms of other market drivers, Sydney presently has a vacancy rate of around 1.7% but with plenty of supply now in the pipeline, while the unemployment rate for Greater Sydney is only 5.1%.</span><br><br><span>Implied yields on cash rate futures contracts are pricing a 100% chance of an interest rate cut to just 1.75% by April 2016.</span><br><br><span>This morning's Building Activity data release will shed more light on dwelling commencements and completions around the states.</span><br><br><span>Expect to see both commencements and completions respectively at close to their highest ever levels.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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October housing prices: Pete Wargent

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The CoreLogic Stratified Hedonic Index breaks the market into three segments: the most affordable 25% of properties, the middle 50% and the most expensive 25%.</p>
<p>The data shows over the past year the most expensive quarter of the market has recorded the greatest value growth.</p>
<p>Over the 12 months to August 2017, the most affordable 25% of residential properties nationally have recorded value growth of 2.9% compared to growth of 8.0% across the middle 50% of suburbs and 11.4% growth across the 25% of most expensive suburbs. </p>
<p>The national chart highlights that across all market segments the annual rate of value change has started to slow over recent months.  Importantly, the chart also highlights that when there have been housing market downturns it has typically been the most expensive properties that have been hardest hit while more affordable dwellings have been more resilient to downturns. </p>
<h3 class="text-align-center">Annual change in dwelling values across market segments, National</h3>
<p>Click to enlarge</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/14/2017-09-11-image1.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Over the period shown, August 1987 to August 2017, the thirty year period has seen values across the most affordable 25% of properties rise 1,517% compared to increases of 580% across the middle 50% of suburbs and 432% across the most expensive 25% of suburbs.  This highlights how affordability has deteriorated substantially at the more affordable end of the housing market.</p>
<p>The second chart shows the change in values across the three broad segments throughout the combined capital cities.  Over the 12 months to August 2017, the most affordable 25% of properties have recorded growth of 4.6% compared to 9.3% growth across the middle 50% of properties and a 12.2% change across the most expensive 25% of the market.  Like the national figures, in the event of a housing market downturn it has been the more expensive housing which has tended to see the greater value falls.</p>
<h3 class="text-align-center">Annual change in dwelling values across market segments,<br>Combined Capital Cities</h3>
<p>Click to enlarge</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/14/2017-09-11-image2.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The third chart looks at the growth performance across regional housing markets where the change in values has been much more moderate over recent years than that across the capital cities. </p>
<p>The 25% of most affordable properties in regional Australia have recorded value increases of 2.5% compared to a 4.6% change across the middle 50% and an 8.4% increase in the most expensive 25% of properties. </p>
<p>Over recent years, growth in the affordable segment in regional Australia has been the strongest performed suggesting that demand has been for more affordable housing. </p>
<p>However, as the regional markets have picked-up over the past couple of years, it has been the top 25% of suburbs that have outperformed. </p>
<p>This is likely to indicate demand for luxury housing outside of the capital cities has risen.</p>
<h3 class="text-align-center">Annual change in dwelling values across market segments,<br>Combined Regional Markets</h3>
<p>Click to enlarge</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/14/2017-09-1-image3.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The final chart shows the annual change in dwelling values across the three market segments throughout the capital cities.  Melbourne and Darwin are the only capital cities that have recorded the greatest change in values over the year across the most affordable suburbs and the slowest growth across the most expensive suburbs. </p>
<p>In all other capital cities, either the middle 50% of suburbs or the top 25% of suburbs have recorded the fastest rate of value growth over the year.  In Melbourne, this is possibly due to the fact that Sydney and Melbourne are the strongest economies in the country and are jockeying to attract talent.  Melbourne has a significant competitive advantage over Sydney in terms of being able to offer more affordable housing and the data seems to suggest that lower priced housing is a big driver which has led to a surge in values across the lower and also middle segments of the market. </p>
<h3 class="text-align-center">Annual change in dwelling values across market segments,<br>individual capital cities, to Aug-17</h3>
<p>Click to enlarge</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/14/2017-09-11-image4.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The stratified hedonic index offers another interesting look into the performance of the national housing market looking at how different segments are performing.  If the current housing market slowdown continues and turns into declines, watch for whether the most affordable sector of the market is relatively stronger performed than the more expensive segment.  With record high levels of household debt and significant first home buyer incentives over recent years the trends in a future downturn could be different to what has been seen in the past.</p>
<p><span>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him </span><a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a><span>.</span></p>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Premium housing values rise fastest over past year

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<p>Over the last financial year (2016-2017), CoreLogic found that combined capital city dwelling values increased by 9.6% which was actually greater than the 8.3% rise over the 2015-16 financial year.</p>
<p>According to research analyst Cameron Kusher, combined capital city dwelling values have now increased over five successive financial years however, prior to these increases there were successive financial years in which values fell (-1.4% in 2010-11 and -3.6% in 2011-12).</p>
<p>He said, “Across the individual capital cities the growth story over recent financial years has been vastly different.”</p>
<p>In most capital cities, the rate of value growth over the past financial year was superior to that over the previous year. The exceptions were Brisbane and Darwin. A number of cities recorded their greatest increases in values in a number of years highlighting that the rate of growth has been accelerating.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-14%20at%2010.15.18%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-14%20at%2010.15.18%20am.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Mr Kusher said, “Two of the primary factors influencing the rebound in capital gains during the most recent financial year was the increase in investment activity after 2015/16 which saw investment activity slow on the back of changed prudential policies implemented by APRA, as well as successive rate cuts in May and August last year that added further incentive to property buyers.”</p>
<p>With a new round of macroprudential policies announced at the end of March this year, Mr Kusher said, “It’s likely there will be a similar, if not more pronounced slowdown in investment activity across the housing market.”</p>
<p>“Coupled with affordability constraints and higher mortgage rates, we expect the 2017/18 financial year will record a less substantial rate of capital gains that what was seen in 2016/17.”</p>
<p><strong>How the capitals performed over the 2016-2017 financial year: </strong></p>
<p><strong>Sydney </strong>– dwelling values increased by 12.2% over the past year and it was the fifth successive year in which values rose. Value growth was slightly higher than the 11.3% over the previous financial year.</p>
<p><strong>Melbourne </strong>– values have now increased for five successive financial years with each of those years progressively seeing a faster rate of value growth. Over the past year, values increased by 13.7% which was their greatest increase over a financial year since 2009-10.</p>
<p><strong>Brisbane </strong>– a 2.0% increase in values over the past financial year was down on the 5.3% the previous year. Brisbane values have increased over each of the past five years however, last year was the slowest rate of growth since 2012-13.</p>
<p><strong>Adelaide </strong>– the 2.4% rise in values over the past year eclipsed the 2.1% increase the previous year and marked the fifth consecutive financial year in which values increased.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-14%20at%2010.15.51%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-14%20at%2010.15.51%20am.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><strong>Perth </strong>– dwelling values have fallen over each of the past three financial years however, the rate of decline has slowed from -4.7% in 2015-16 to -1.3% in 2016-17. At no other time over the past 20 years have values fallen over three successive financial years in Perth.</p>
<p><strong>Hobart </strong>– the 6.8% increase in dwelling values over the past financial year was the greatest increase in values over a financial year since they rose by 8.5% in 2005-06.</p>
<p><strong>Darwin </strong>– dwelling values have fallen for three successive financial years. The -7.0% fall in values over the year was the largest annual decline since values fell by -12.6% over the 2010-11 financial year.</p>
<p><strong>Canberra </strong>– values rose by 9.6% over the last financial year which was the greatest rise in values over a financial year since 2009-10 when values increased by 13.3%.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-14%20at%2010.16.02%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-14%20at%2010.16.02%20am.jpg" alt=""></p>
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How did the capital city housing markets perform over the financial year? Cameron Kusher

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<div>
<p>APRA announced further measures to cool certain sectors of the housing market last week.</p>
<p>Every man and his dog has written about this already, with a few excellent insights and some interpretations that were just plain weird - so let's keep this post as short as possible, shall we? </p>
<p>OK, here we go...</p>
<p>APRA wants lenders to place strict internal limits on the volume of interest-only lending at loan-to-value ratios (LVRs) above 80 percent, so firstly some lenders will immediately require a 20 per cent deposit for this type of loan. A shift in this direction has already taken place to some extent, so the impact of this may be marginal.</p>
<p>Lenders must now also ensure there is "strong scrutiny and justification of any instances of interest-only lending at an LVR above 90 percent", so interest-only loans with a deposit of less than 10 per cent will generally go the way of the dodo and the lo-doc loan. </p>
<p>Again, this has by and large already happened, but will have the ongoing effect of knocking a few more first-time buyers out of the market, while having no impact on incumbent owners with existing equity.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/02/C2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a></p>
</div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/02/C2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Speed limit</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The existing 10 per cent cap on growth for investment mortgage books will remain in place. I've spoken to branch managers and bank owners, and their view is generally that this won't have too much impact since new loans can always be pushed back a month.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But a third impact may be that some lenders have to wind their necks in just a little bit further. </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/02/C4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/02/C4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Fourthly, there will likely be a shift in the investor loan segment of the market towards private financiers or non-bank lenders, perhaps some of whom may offer commercial-style rates. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Fifthly, banks have been presented with an open goal here for raising the rates on their investor loans, so rates will inevitably be ratcheted higher in due course. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Switch...</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Between July 2015 and February 2017 some $50 billion of loans were switched from investor to owner-occupier mortgages following the introduction of an interest rate differential between the two types of loan. A sixth impact will therefore be yet further switching of loan purpose. </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/02/C3.jpg" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/02/C3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Why worry?</span></strong></p>
<div>
<span>So far, so unremarkable. </span><span>But there's more...</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>By far the most important impact will be a new 'speed limit' on interest-only loans in Australia, with APRA now aiming to limit the <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">flow</span></strong> of new interest-only lending to 30 per cent of total new residential mortgage lending.</span></div>
<div><span><br>At the heady peak more than 45 per cent of new loans were interest-only in nature, with investors in particular favouring this type of product in order to maximise their tax deductible expenses.  </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>A seventh impact will be that new owner-occupiers wanting to use this type of product in future may be given their marching orders, and possibly some aged borrowers too. </span></div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/02/C1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/02/C1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Eighthly, if that is even a real word, two of Australia's major banks have been rolling over interest-only loans more or less automatically at the end of the interest-only period, and these lenders will almost certainly now require a far more stringent assessment. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course, few borrowers will default on a loan when they've seen the value of their Sydney property double over the preceding five years, though they might choose to sell off their investment if the repayments become too arduous. The impact in markets where dwelling prices have declined might prove to be an altogether more dramatic story.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The ninth impact - perhaps an over-arching point really - is that far too many investors have simply assumed they will continue rolling interest-only debt <em>ad infinitum, </em>and they may now have to get it into their heads that they will be paying back principal sooner or later.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Seemingly every other week an article surfaces featuring 'young gun investors' with a dozen interest-only loans having been used to buy high-yielding properties in far-flung areas. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Credit markets tend to move in cycles, so APRA's changes may or may not be permanent, but in the prevailing market conditions some borrowers could get caught short if they've simply planned to continue rolling interest-only debt on an endless loop. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Oh, and there may be further macroprudential measures to come!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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APRA offers further measures to cool certain housing market sectors

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<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics released construction work done data for the March 2016 quarter last week. </p>
<p>The data set looks at the value of construction work completed over the quarter and is an input to the national accounts (GDP) data.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/06/06/Chart-1-3-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/06/06/Chart-1-3-580x210.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Over the quarter, the value of construction work done was $47.928 billion which was down -5.5 percent over the quarter and -7.2 percent year-on-year.  In fact, the value of construction work done over the March 2016 quarter was the lowest since June 2011 and has been trending lower since the December 2012 quarter.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/06/06/Chart-2-2-580x208.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/06/06/Chart-2-2-580x208.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The decline in the value of work done is largely being driven by engineering construction which was bolstered until recent by the mining investment boom.  Over the quarter there was $24.9 billion worth of building work completed and $23.0 billion in engineering construction completed. </p>
<p>It shows that following a recent boost from infrastructure investment, building construction is now the key driver.  The value of engineering construction work done peaked at $34.7 billion in the September 2012 quarter and has since fallen by -33.6 percent while building activity peaked at $25.2 billion in the December 2015 quarter and has fallen by -1.0%.  With construction work in both the building and engineering sectors falling it is difficult to see how construction work done won’t continue to decline over the coming months.  Even the largest residential housing construction boom on record has not been enough to offset the previous largest engineering construction investment boom on record.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/06/06/Chart-3-2-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/06/06/Chart-3-2-580x210.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The building segment of construction work done consists of residential and non-residential construction (offices, retail shops, industrial properties).  The previous data showed building work has started to fall with the fall being driven by non-residential construction.  In fact residential construction work done is continuing to climb and is now at a record high $16.6 billion while non-residential is down -18.6 percent from its June 2010 peak.  While the largest residential construction boom in history continues to drive activity in that sector higher, it isn’t enough to offset the decline in the non-residential (and engineering construction) sector which is well below peak levels of activity.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/06/06/Chart-4-1-580x207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/06/06/Chart-4-1-580x207.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The residential construction component is further broken down into three components: houses, other residential (units) and alterations and additions, including conversions. Unit construction work done reached a record high of $6.8 billion on the back of the biggest unit construction boom on record. </p>
<p>While unit construction activity continues to rise, the $7.7 billion in work done for houses is down -7.1 percent from its recent peak in March 2015 at $8.3 billion.  The value of alterations and additions completed was recorded at $2.0 billion over the quarter down -6.9 percent from its $2.1 billion peak over the September 2011 quarter.  It is anticipated work done for houses will continue to trend lower while unit work should trend higher over the next few quarters before starting to fall. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the direction of alterations and additions is unclear but there could be some scope for an increase over the coming quarters and years given how much equity some home owners have and the costs associated with moving home.</p>
<p>Residential construction has been a large contributor to economic growth over recent years however, it looks as if it is likely to start detracting from growth as construction activity moves through a peak. </p>
<p>Housing construction activity has already been fading for a year while unit activity continues to rise however, we anticipate that it too will turn within the next 12 months. With the resources boom and concurrent infrastructure investment boom so important to Australia’s prosperity coming out of the financial crisis as it faded, building activity became extremely important, particularly residential construction activity. </p>
<p>With the residential construction boom starting to fade we need the next economic driver to rise in order to offset the slowing in building activity. An increase in infrastructure investment would seem to be a prime candidate however, Governments may not be willing to invest the money. The next boom will seemingly need to come from somewhere else; potentially from the education, health and tourism sectors as the lower Australian dollar makes these sectors more globally competitive as well as increased consumption if households start to ease their rate of saving.</p>
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<em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em> </div>
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The value of construction work done for houses is falling with units likely to follow shortly: Cameron Kusher

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The ongoing diversity in the housing market highlights the different growth drivers that are evident from region to region.</p>
<p>The economies of Sydney and Melbourne remain relatively sheltered from the downturn in the resources sector and have benefited from a very healthy services sector and positive population inflows while the mining states and territories are experiencing softer economic conditions and a sharp wind down in population growth, particularly from overseas migration.</p>
<p>The annual expansion in investor related housing credit has now dropped to a pace that is much lower than APRA’s mandated 10 percent growth per annum, while credit growth for owner occupiers is expanding.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-10%20at%208.33.17%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-10%20at%208.33.17%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>With many banks now placing a premium on investment mortgage interest rates and also increasing mortgage rates and serviceability limits on all mortgages we have seen investment housing demand slow however, there has been a slight up-tick in demand from this segment over recent months.</p>
<p>It’s important to note, however, that lenders have been reclassifying existing mortgages from investment purposes to owner occupation, which is likely to be having an impact on the figures. Some lenders have recently relaxed previous restrictions on investors which could result in a rebound in demand from this segment over coming months.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-10%20at%208.39.33%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-10%20at%208.39.33%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The cumulative effect of tighter lending conditions, more expensive mortgage rates for investors and lower yields, as well as natural affordability constraints and higher levels of new housing supply, is likely to continue to impact the Sydney housing market resulting in a further slowdown over the year.</p>
<p>It is also expected that as the year progresses the rate of home value growth in Melbourne will also slow however, the slowdown is likely to be more moderate than the slowing in Sydney, at least during 2016. South-East Queensland looks set to see further increases in housing demand and potentially stronger value growth throughout the year.</p>
<p>Hobart and Canberra also appear better set for value growth over 2016 due to improving housing and economic conditions and relatively more affordable housing compared to Sydney and Melbourne. Adelaide is likely to show only moderate rates of value growth this year. In the meantime, we anticipate that values will continue to fall in trend terms throughout 2016 in Perth and Darwin.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-10%20at%208.42.17%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-10%20at%208.42.17%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
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<p><em>Tim Lawless is head of the CoreLogic research and analytics team and can be contacted <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Upturn on slowing investment housing demand: Tim Lawless

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>The national housing market has just experienced its largest downturn in dwelling values since at least the 1980s.</p>
<p>The fact that values nationally fell by less than 10% speaks to the ongoing strength of the housing market over the past 40 years which has culminated in Australia being one of the most expensive places in the world in which to buy property.</p>
<p>Since the federal election in May, there have been ongoing signs of improving market conditions.</p>
<p>This has been driven by a number of factors including: an unexpected win by the Coalition in the federal election which removed uncertainty about changes taxation policies relating to investment, two 25 basis point cuts to interest rates, tax cuts for low income earners and an easing of some of the previous lending restrictions that were in place.</p>
<p>While there are clear signs of improving conditions, many point to the fact that the very low volume of sales in the market indicate that the recovery is not real or unsustainable.</p>
<p>While that could very well prove to be true if/when stock levels rise, the truth of the matter is that in a downturn, sales volumes typically fall and subsequently, the early stages of a housing recovery are usually characterised by low volumes of sales.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/23/CL%20Recovery%201.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p>The above chart shows the monthly volume of settled sales for dwellings nationally, together with the rolling three month change in dwelling values nationally. The dotted line represents 0% change, so anything below means that values are falling and anything above is indicative of growth. What becomes quite clear from the data is that when values are declining, sales volumes typically fall and increasing values typically leads to higher volumes.</p>
<p>What is also evident is that the market doesn’t respond immediately, when values start rising, initially at least, it isn’t necessarily occurring in concert with a rise in sales volumes. Even recent examples in the 2009 and 2011 market recoveries show this to be the case.</p>
<p>This is precisely what is occurring at the moment, specifically in Sydney and Melbourne where housing conditions are improving following a sharp downturn.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/23/CL%20Recovery%202.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p>Another way to look at how a housing market recovery starts out with low sales volumes is the auction market.</p>
<p>Coming out of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), values nationally started to lift in January 2009. Equally, the above chart shows how auction clearance rates bounced however, this bounce occurred with very low volumes of auctions taking place.</p>
<p>Equally, the housing recovery which started in early 2012 saw a relatively low number of auctions occurring right through until early 2013. It is a similar story right now with auction clearance rates having bounced higher since the middle of May, yet the volume of properties going to auction remaining quite low.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/23/CL%20Recovery%203.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p>Finally, you can only really take to auction or purchase what is available for sale. One of the major reasons why transaction volumes remain so low is because there is very little actually available for sale. The number of new listings nationally (new listings are anything not previously advertised for sale over the past 6 months) are the lowest they’ve been at this time of year for many years and are -18.9% lower than they were last year.</p>
<p>Total listings are also lower than they’ve been at this time of year for many years and are -4.4% lower than they were a year ago.</p>
<p>Auction volumes have certainly fallen much more than volumes in the general market however, as housing market conditions have softened, vendors have become much more selective about which properties are appropriate to be taken to auction.</p>
<p>Notwithstanding that, as we have seen in the past you can’t say that an increase in dwelling values is not sustainable just because the volume of stock either selling or going to auction is low.</p>
<p>Ultimately, you can only transact that which is actually available for sale and at this point there is not a lot of stock available for sale. Of course as we enter spring that may change and a higher volume of stock for sale may prove to snuff out any increases in housing values but at this stage the improving trend is quite real.</p>
<p><em>CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic</em></p>
<p><em>Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.</em></p>
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The signs of a market recovery: CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher

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<p><span>While housing sales activity slumped during the housing downturn, the recent trend shows turnover has levelled out as home values </span><span>rise and mortgage rates reach the lowest level since the 1950’s.</span></p>
<p><span>Although the housing market appears to have moved through the bottom of a near two year downturn, sales activity remains well below normal levels.</span></p>
<p><span>Nationally, CoreLogic estimates </span><span>that there were 367,630 settled sales over the twelve months ending August 2019; 17% lower year- on-year, and about 30% below the recent peak level of annual sales recorded over the twelve months ending September 2015.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/26/corelogic%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/26/corelogic%201.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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<p>Source: CoreLogic </p>
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<p><span>The good news is that home sales appear to be stabilising</span><span>, albeit at a low base. </span></p>
<p><span>The six month trend has found a floor at around the same lows recorded during the previous two downturns in 2008 and 2010-12. </span></p>
<p><span>The six month trend has been tracking higher since June 2019, in line with a recovery in home values.</span></p>
<p><span>Such a large reduction in market activity has implications for the economy, especially from a consumption perspective. </span></p>
<p><span>Reduced housing activity implies less spending on retail items such as home furnishings, white goods and appliances. </span></p>
<p><span>With both values and volumes falling, state government stamp duty revenues have experienced a big hit, and of course we see real estate industry and finance sector participants receiving less income based on lower rates of sale and lower values.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/26/corelogic%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/26/corelogic%202.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic </p>
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<p><span>The drag on economic growth is compounded </span><span>when housing values fall, as the wealth effect moves into reverse and households are less inclined to spend on discretionary items.</span></p>
<p><span>There isn’t a single trigger for the levelling in sales activity; in fact we can point to a variety of factors that have supp</span><span>orted a turnaround in conditions.</span></p>
<p><span>A boost to confidence following the federal election</span><span>, which removed a lot of the uncertainty around housing tax reform. Also, lower mortgage rates and policy changes from APRA which relaxed home loan servicing tests for borrowers were other likely factors driving the rebound in activity. </span></p>
<p><span>Additionally there is the improvement in housing affordability driven by the 8.4% fall in housing values nationally.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/26/corelogic%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/26/corelogic%203.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic </p>
<p><span>Most of the capital cities have seen either a stabilisation </span><span>in settled sales activity or a rise in the trend rate of sales. </span></p>
<p><span>Housing turnover is rising the most sharply in Adelaide, with a more subtle improvement across Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra. </span></p>
<p><span>The trend in sales has stabilised across Brisbane, Perth and Darwin but is still trending lower in Hobart.</span></p>
<p><span>The fact that housing values are now under some upwards pressure while housing turnover remains low presents somewhat of a paradox.</span></p>
<p><span>One explanation for the low rate of sales activity </span><span>comes back to constraints around stock available for sale. </span></p>
<p><span>Newly advertised stock levels remain about 15% lower than a year ago across Australia and total advertised stock levels are still 8% lower than a year ago and </span><span>haven’t been this low for this time of the year since 2010.</span></p>
<p><span>As housing values continue to recover </span><span>and the seasonal rise in listing numbers gathers pace we are likely to see sales activity also trend higher. </span>Credit availability remains the wildcard in a material bounce back in turnover.</p>
<p><span>Although credit policies have become a little looser, gaining loan approval remains a challenge for many borrowers, despite the lowest mortgage rates since the 1950</span><span>’s.</span></p>
<p><span><em><span class="s1">TIM LAWLESS</span><span class="s2"><em> heads up the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team and can be contacted<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank"> here.</a></em></span></em></span></p>
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