Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Housing Market

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At the RBA's December 2020 meeting, the members noted that conditions in the domestic housing market were improving, but were uneven.

"Regional housing prices had increased by more than those in capital cities since the onset of the pandemic", RBA Governor Philip Lowe's meeting minutes read.

They highlighted the variation in changes in housing prices across the capitals, with Sydney and Melbourne markets more subdued than elsewhere in the country.

Lowe said that, within Sydney and Melbourne in particular, conditions in the detached housing market were firmer than for higher-density markets.

"Overall, national housing prices had increased only a little since the outbreak of the pandemic," Lowe stated.

They focused on the slowdown in population growth impacting the housing market nationally as a result of the closure of international borders.

"This had been more consequential in Australia than in many other economies," Lowe advised, saying that it has impacted the rental market in particular, with rents falling and rental vacancy rates in inner-city Sydney and Melbourne around their highest levels in many years."

Lowe touched on the strong growth in New Zealand housing markets, with population growth, expat buying interest and an earlier easing in lending standards.

"By comparison, these factors had been less relevant in Australia and, partly as a result, the increase in housing prices in Australia this year had been considerably smaller than in a number of other advanced economies."
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Conditions in the domestic housing market improving, but uneven: RBA's December 2020 meeting minutes

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The March 2020 Lending to Households and Business figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics show the value of loans for housing continued to increase, albeit at a slower rate, with the increase being driven by owner occupiers, according to the Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA).
Overall the figures for March 2020 show, in seasonally adjusted terms, that the value of owner-occupied finance commitments, excluding refinancing, increased by 0.2 per cent for the month and 17.5 per cent for the past year,” said Adrian Kelly, president of the REIA. 
Whilst the value of new loan commitments for owner occupier housing has grown in ten of the last twelve months, the March loan commitments reflect loan applications submitted in February, or the first half of March before restrictions were introduced across Australia in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
The number of owner occupier first home buyer loan commitments increased 1.3 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms for the month and 21.3 per cent for the year and can in part, at least, be attributed to the introduction of the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme in January 2020. 
The number of owner occupier first home buyer loan commitments is up 24.7 per cent from the most recent low point in December 2018.
Owner occupier first home buyer loan commitments accounted for 31.8 per cent of all owner occupier commitments, excluding refinancing.
With lending institutions reporting a considerable slowdown in new loan applications from the end of March, as both restrictions on movements and caution about the economy impact on activity in the housing market, we may find the March finance figures will be a high point for some months to come.
ADRIAN KELLY is the President of the REIA
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

March housing finance numbers a high tide mark: REIA's Adrian Kelly

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Expert Observation
Despite the current gains recorded for the March quarter being on track with our base case forecasts, given current events, there is only a single scenario that is still feasible and that is Scenario 4 – a scenario we outlined in our top 4 scenarios for 2020. 
One where the RBA would bring the cash rate to zero and start quantitative easing. It was based on a possibility the tentative trade war truce between the U.S and China would collapse and a ‘take no prisoners’ trade war would break out between the two countries, turning into a global trade war.
The outlook for housing in this scenario was one where the market would eventually stall and start to record price decreases from mid-year onwards. That the rate cuts and money printing would not be able to offset job losses and subsequently, forced sales activity.
Yes, the RBA has now had to introduce quantitative easing. Yes, the cash rate is now just 0.25 per cent. But what we now face economically is a tsunami that dwarfs even a global trade war.
To get a sense of the economic carnage that is underway, check out this gif of U.S jobless claims.
The scale of what we are facing right now on the economic front is something never truly encountered since The Great Depression. And if we don’t manage it well then a depression (a contract in in GDP of greater than 10 per cent) is what we will have – something which I am far more frightened of than catching Covid-19. And believe me, I do not want to catch this virus.
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/4/16/SQM%20chart.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
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So, with that in mind, I want to now give a general outlook on what I think are two main scenarios that are really in play this year.
A V-shaped recovery
Let’s be clear, despite the positive Corelogic numbers (dwelling prices rose 2.8 per cent for the quarter) and indeed our asking price indexes, I think housing price expectations have already corrected by five per cent to ten per cent from their very highs. That may not show up in the official numbers as the highs were only briefly obtained during the later stages of February. It is anecdotal only, through my discussions with real estate agents and the sharp fall in clearance rates, which were already occurring prior to the auction ban starting from the 25th of March.
The best case scenario from here for property owners and investors is one where we get to zero new Covid-19 cases before April is over with. And on that front the numbers have been looking promising. I believe it is now a 50 per cent chance that our three major states will record a zero new Covid-19 cases day before the month is over. If we get to that point, the next question begs how long will restrictions be kept? Potentially some restrictions could be lifted in May. And my bet is that when restrictions are eventually lifted, they will be lifted in the reverse order that they were placed on to begin with. As the ban on auctions occurred as one of the last stages (25 March), it is quite feasible that lifting that ban could come sooner than expected.
If we are able to get back to close to normal business by end of May (I certainly don’t think all restrictions will be lifted by that time), then I think confidence in the housing market is going to return. Assisted with all the stimulus announced and the economic damage relatively limited, it would mean a fall in housing prices recorded for the June quarter but a bounce back in the September and December quarters. The net result for the year may come in at our Scenario 4 range or slightly better.
It should not be underestimated how much expenditure has been announced (including RBA money printing via quantitative easing) and how low lending rates are now. 
A borrower with a good credit rating can now expect a variable owner occupier lending rate somewhere between 2.5 per cent to 2.8 per cent. Average capital city gross rental yields are running at about 2.9 per cent for houses and 3.9 per cent for units.
That means property owners on a purely interest expenses verses rental payments scenario could do better owning. And of course it also means that investors may find more cashflow positive properties in our major cities.
That said though, we think there is trouble ahead for the rental market. We will come to that point later.
<h2>The worse-case scenario</h2>
The worse-case scenario is we have a second wave in new virus case counts and it occurs shortly after some restrictions are lifted. Or that new case numbers flatten at current levels but never quite manage to get to zero cases or stay at zero cases. This appears to be the plight of South Korea at the moment.
If this second wave were to occur, we think the housing market will have a much deeper correction.
A second wave of new Covid-19 cases is a great risk. Note, a second wave of Spanish Flue hit Australia in mid-1919 and this occurred just after restrictions were lifted after the first wave, noting hospital numbers (which is the available data we have for time) never actually got to zero on the lull.
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Such a scenario would mean current restrictions would stay with us for longer. Probably more than six months. Or worse, more restrictions added. A second wave of infections may be more deadly as it would potentially occur over the course of the Southern Hemisphere winter. A sharp rise in deaths may result in more panic at the shops and most certainly a new low in confidence.
Damage to the economy would be deeper and longer lasting. Many businesses, including those that are currently on life-support, would not last the distance and will be liquidated.
You see, even with the generous measures announced for small business, it won’t be enough to keep much of the sector alive for half a year. When there is little to zero revenues coming in, month after month, PAYG relief is not enough. Being subsidised to cover employee wages at $1,500 a fortnight is not enough. Neither is a $10,000 cash grant for most. And forget about asking small business to go into debt. Most of them, particularly in retail, hospitality and tourism, will refuse to do so. And so job creation would occur at a far slower rate when a recovery would eventually return.
With the surging and sustained unemployment rate, the banks could start to get nervous on mortgages. Potentially, after the six-month hiatus, banks may be backed into a corner where they are forced to repossession on defaulted housing loans. Now I believe the RBA and/or the Federal Government would come to the rescue to enable banks to avoid a mass repossession event. Let’s keep in mind that in 2008, the banks could have pulled the trigger on the commercial property sector. Many owners at the time were in breach of lending covenants. The banks, by and large, chose not to pull that trigger. Mainly for their own self-preservation, as doing so would have created a cascading affect that would have smashed their balance sheets.
So I am not convinced we will see a lot of forced sales activity, even in this bleaker scenario. All the same, there will be many property owners who will want to sell out if this crisis goes on for six months or more. They will see the falls in dwelling prices over the course of the June quarter. And they will be very protective of what is left of their net wealth.
The buy side of the property equation would be hit very hard as it is being hit hard now. But far worse than what we had in 2018 or indeed 2008.
You see it’s not just the loss of employees representing many first home buyers, but, as mentioned above it is also the potential wipe out of many thousands of small business owners, who themselves employ nearly 50 per cent of the total workforce. Small business owners actually represent a very large component of the home buyer market. As at the 2016 Census there were over two million small businesses.
So this is very much a buy side issue in my view. Anyone that is worried they will lose their job or their business, won’t be seriously thinking of taking out a home loan to buy into the property market.
Let’s also remind ourselves that our international border is closed to most except for permanent residents, citizens and some temporary visa holders. And I believe it will remain closed for many months to come. So underlying demand for housing, which has been predominantly driven by net overseas migration has now stalled for this year. This will be a different experience to the Spanish Flu of 1919, whereby population growth still expanded at a very strong rate (1.9 per cent for 2019) due to our soldiers returning home as well as the settling of European refuges.
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Up to a 30 per cent peak to trough price decline cannot be ruled out.
In this more bleaker scenario, a 30 per cent decline in dwelling prices would be on the cards. Note, I have not modelled this out, other than taking elements such as previous work on the relationship between unemployment and the housing market. Modelling in this environment is almost impossible. It is simply based on my experience and study. The most overvalued cities would be hit the hardest, that being Sydney and Melbourne. Other cities should do better than a 30 per cent correction given their relative fair value. Now some of you will note that during The Great Depression, the Australian housing market did not correct by this magnitude. Nor, during the Spanish plague of 1919 did the Australian housing market record such a correction. However, those two markets were not laden with the debt burden our current housing market has. Not even close. The only market that comes close in Australia was the massive boom/bust of the 1890s.
Of course, it should be noted that period was also laden by a very dodgy and nearly entirely unregulated banking sector.
Either way, the rental market is in trouble.
Overall, a stalling in underlying demand for accommodation driven by near zero migration, combined with a reduction in existing tenancy demand (as a result of job losses) plus a very likely increase in supply from empty AirBNB accommodation will likely mean we can now expect a rise in rental vacancies over this year. Previously the forecast was for a gentle reduction in vacancies in 2020 as dwelling completions were (and still are) due to fall.
On our estimates and other estimates, there are some 120,000+ properties nationwide at any point in time being used for short term accommodation via websites such as airbnb. And on our latest numbers for February,there were some 68,000 vacant rental properties available for normal leasing.
I can’t tell you how many property owners are going to switch back to longer term leasing but there will be a number, especially if this plays out for longer. This is not a scenario here. This is our view. Our view is that rental vacancy rates are going to rise sharply over the short term. I think we can expect the rate to rise from the current 2.0 per cent to north of 2.5 per cent and perhaps north of 3.0 per cent. That may not sound like much to you but if we do hit 3.0 per cent that would be a record high on our index which goes back to 2005. Rents would fall as a result. Perhaps our weekly asking rents index is already revealing some weakness with national asking rents for houses down by 0.9 per cent for the month and 0.3 per cent down for units.
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The weakness in the rental market will probably put off many would-be property investors over 2020 creating more issues on the buy side of the market.
So what is it going to be? - Scenario 1, Scenario 2 or another scenario?
The next 30 days will likely tell the story. It is very hard to judge it. Like everyone else I am watching the new case numbers closely.
Let me tell you. I don’t want Scenario 2 to play out. A depression would create massive economic misery. Suicides will rise, so will crime.
There is also the possibility we muddle through somewhere between the two scenarios. A world where daily new virus cases don’t quite get to zero but there isn’t a second wave. Restrictions lifted very gradually over many months. Eventually, a vaccine is produced and distributed in 2021. We would need to see what is lifted and at what point in time to work out the impact on the housing market. Regardless, rents will still be hit for simply the fact that the international border will still remain closed.
LOUIS CHRISTOPHER is the CEO of SQM Research
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Looking back at forecasts made in October last year: Louis Christopher

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<div>New listings fell in March according to SQM Research as more potential vendors decided not to list.</div>
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<div>However, total listings had already begun to increase (+3.7 per cent) as more 30-60 day stock banked up, having failed to sell. </div>
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d2CQt-N3jio/XowhwDv7zpI/AAAAAAAA1IM/83eJ9Qa8bz0i2eCpwC4KlueT4ghuvHaLgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/SQM1.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1368">
 
From a year ago total property listings remained -13 per cent lower than year earlier, mainly due to Sydney where listings were still -23 per cent below March 2019 levels, with Hobart also down -19 per cent year-on-year.
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<div>SQM reported that asking prices increased further in March, driven by increases in Sydney, Melbourne, and Perth, suggesting that vendors have not yet adjusted their price expectations, despite the effective shutdown of the economy.</div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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New listings and sales are falling but asking prices rose in March: Pete Wargent

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Expert Observation
The COVID-19 pandemic is a double crisis affecting public health and the economy. And both aspects are playing out in our housing system – in our homes.
More and more of us are being directed to stay home, to work from home, or to socially isolate at home. Our homes are the “first line of defence against the COVID-19 outbreak”, as the UN’s Special Rapporteur on Housing <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=25727&amp;LangID=E" target="_blank">puts it</a>. But, depending on how our housing system responds, it could make the double crisis worse.
More and more workers are <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-puts-casual-workers-at-risk-of-homelessness-unless-they-get-more-support-133782" target="_blank">losing shifts</a>, or <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6687586/coronavirus-australia-preparing-for-significant-rise-in-unemployment/" target="_blank">losing jobs</a> altogether, as well as the incomes they use to pay for their homes – whether it’s the rent or the mortgage. On Friday, the prime minister announced that states would work on model rules to provide relief to tenants in “hardship conditions”. On Sunday, the federal government moved to replace some of the income households have lost, <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/supporting-australian-workers-and-business" target="_blank">temporarily doubling some social security payments and making cash grants to businesses</a>.
The risk of people becoming homeless during the pandemic is still high. Some more specific actions are needed to shore up our first line of defence. Governments must implement a moratorium on evictions as long as the crisis lasts. Similar changes have already been made overseas.
<h2>Evictions can happen quickly</h2>
A sudden loss of wages puts renters at risk of arrears and owner-occupiers at risk of mortgage default. This may result in legal proceedings to terminate the tenancy or give possession to the bank or other lender, and ultimately eviction. Tenants are vulnerable to termination and eviction for a host of other reasons, too.
Renters are at particular risk because rent arrears termination proceedings are quick. You can go from a missed payment to termination orders in about eight weeks in New South Wales. Other states and territories are similar.
Many renters’ finances are <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-puts-casual-workers-at-risk-of-homelessness-unless-they-get-more-support-133782" target="_blank">already precarious</a>. About <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/one-in-five-households-facing-mortgage-stress-despite-low-rates-20191223-p53mfn" target="_blank">one-third</a> of private renters are low-income households in housing stress (in the bottom 40% of household incomes paying more than 30% of income in rent). And 30% <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/completed/renters" target="_blank">don’t have $500 saved</a> for an emergency.
Homeowners with a mortgage are also at risk of default due to loss of income. About <a href="https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/mortgage-stress-still-climbed-in-february" target="_blank">20% of mortgagees</a> are already in mortgage stress. This rate has <a href="https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/mortgage-stress-still-climbed-in-february" target="_blank">grown over the last year</a> despite rate cuts.
Now workers are facing sudden income and job losses. We see widespread evidence of an economic downturn across many sectors, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-global-travel-as-we-know-it-an-opportunity-for-sustainable-tourism-133783" target="_blank">tourism</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/theyre-going-to-go-under-australias-coronavirus-hit-restaurants-bars-and-caterers-seek-bailout" target="_blank">hospitality</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-australian-arts-need-a-stimulus-package-here-is-what-it-should-look-like-133803" target="_blank">arts</a>. Casual workers are at particular risk of reduced income if required to <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/factsheets/Pages/contacts-and-travellers.aspx" target="_blank">self-isolate</a> for long periods or care for unwell family members.
<h2>A breach of our defences</h2>
An eviction is a breach in the first line of defence that housing provides against COVID-19. In fact, the risk of arrears and eviction might drive an infected person to keep working and transmitting the virus.
An evicted household might pile in with family or friends, disrupting social isolation and contributing to unsanitary overcrowding. It’s a challenge people already living in share housing will have to manage. Across Australia, 81,000 dwellings are already overcrowded, <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/2049.0Main+Features12016?OpenDocument" target="_blank">51,000 of these “severely overcrowded”</a>.
People who have been evicted might move through temporary accommodation, and through real estate offices, social services and doctors’ rooms making urgent applications. Or they may be shut out of assistance, and sleeping rough. With limited space and facilities to wash hands and personal effects, the risk of transmission will grow.
<h2>How would a moratorium work?</h2>
These risks justify a government-imposed moratorium on evictions for the duration of the crisis. This could be done through legislation, or through an emergency executive direction to authorised officers to stop evictions. Other countries have already taken such steps.
In the United States, many states and cities have <a href="https://www.antievictionmap.com/blog/2020/3/19/covid-19-emergency-tenant-protections-map" target="_blank">suspended eviction proceedings against tenants</a>. Federal housing finance agencies have implemented <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/18/hud-orders-60-day-foreclosure-moratorium-homeowners-affected-by-coronavirus/" target="_blank">a 60-day moratorium to protect some families from mortgage default</a>.
Ireland has also suspended evictions and <a href="https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0319/1124168-evictions-ban-coronavirus/" target="_blank">temporarily frozen rent increases</a>. In the United Kingdom, renters in the private or social sector are <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/complete-ban-on-evictions-and-additional-protection-for-renters" target="_blank">to be protected from eviction</a>.
A moratorium on evictions is an obvious triage measure. That’s why in Australia a <a href="https://actionnetwork.org/petitions/protect-our-communities-no-evictions-during-a-health-crisis" target="_blank">community coalition</a> has come together to advocate for no evictions during this crisis. You can show your support by <a href="https://actionnetwork.org/petitions/protect-our-communities-no-evictions-during-a-health-crisis" target="_blank">signing the petition</a>.
The <a href="https://www.smartpropertyinvestment.com.au/management/20864-federal-opposition-leads-eviction-moratorium-call" target="_blank">federal opposition is urging</a> the government and financial institutions to consider similar measures.
<h2>What about the mounting debts?</h2>
By itself, an eviction moratorium doesn’t affect the legal liability to pay rent or mortgage instalments. Without anything more, those liabilities would continue.
The federal government’s increased social security payments and business grants will go some way to replacing the income households are losing. But even as the government tips money into households, money is drained away by rents and mortgage payments.
About A$40 billion is due to flow out of Australia’s 2.5 million private renter households and into 1.3 million landlord households. Landlord households have, on average, much <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02673037.2019.1644297" target="_blank">higher incomes and wealth</a> than other households.
Billions more are due to flow, as principal and interest payments, from 3.4 million owner-occupier mortgagees to the banks. Australia’s big four banks last week announced borrowers could <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-21/mortgage-pause-coronavirus-nab-commonwealth-anz-westpac/12076690" target="_blank">“pause” their payments</a> as a pandemic hardship measure. But mortgagees should be aware interest not paid is capitalised into the debt, so they will have more to pay off after the “pause” ends.
Both to prevent the accumulation of arrears, and to make the government’s income-replacement measures more effective, governments should consider implementing reductions or waivers of rent and interest liabilities for as long as the crisis lasts.
The double crisis of the COVID-19 pandemic needs a dual response that aims to keep households in their homes and to keep income in households.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/134148/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sophia-maalsen-376520" target="_blank">Sophia Maalsen</a>, ARC DECRA Fellow and Lecturer in Urbanism, School of Architecture, Design and Planning, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841" target="_blank">University of Sydney</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chris-martin-203935" target="_blank">Chris Martin</a>, Senior Research Fellow, City Futures Research Centre, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dallas-rogers-5269" target="_blank">Dallas Rogers</a>, Program Director, Master of Urbanism, School of Architecture, Design and Planning, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841" target="_blank">University of Sydney</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/emma-power-250930" target="_blank">Emma Power</a>, Senior Research Fellow, Geography and Urban Studies, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/western-sydney-university-1092" target="_blank">Western Sydney University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-housing-evictions-must-be-suspended-to-defend-us-against-coronavirus-134148" target="_blank">original article</a>.
Main Photo by Antonio Guillem/Shutterstock.
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Why housing evictions must be suspended to defend us against coronavirus

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New home sales bounced back in September to return to levels seen during the latter half of 2018, according to HIA Economist, Angela Lillicrap.
The HIA New Home Sales report – a monthly survey of the largest volume home builders in the five largest states – saw sales increase for the second consecutive month.
Sales were up by 5.7 per cent.
"Despite these lifts, they remain down by 1.5 per cent compared to the June 2019 quarter,” added Ms Lillicrap.
“This improvement in sales is a welcome reprieve from the steady decline that emerged in late 2018. It remains too soon to confirm that we have passed the bottom of the cycle, but this result does highlight that we are not likely to see further material falls in new home sales.
“The easing of APRA’s lending restrictions and the RBA’s rate cuts have started to have a positive impact on the new home market.
“With the addition of the Governments First Home Loan Deposit scheme likely to see an additional increase in first home buyer activity, we expect that the improvement in new home sales will be sustained,” concluded Ms Lillicrap.
Across the country, new home sales increased for the month in all the states except for New South Wales which declined by 12.1 per cent to be flat (-0.3 per cent) for the quarter. 
Victoria increased by 11.0 per cent, Queensland by 1.7 per cent, South Australia by 18.0 per cent and Western Australia increased by 13.6 per cent during September. These gains were not enough to offset earlier weak results with Queensland being the only state to experience a significant increase (+6.9 per cent) compared to the previous June quarter. 
Victoria declined by 4.7 per cent and South Australia by 5.4 per cent. New South Wales and Western Australia were relatively steady compared to the previous quarter, down by 0.3 and 1.0 per cent respectively.
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Confidence returning to housing market: HIA 

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The RBA have said there is a sizeable downturn in construction underway.
"Contacts in the Bank's liaison program indicate that demand for new houses and apartments has remained around the low levels of late 2018", RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle's said when he <a href="/news/the-evolution-of-the-housing-market-and-its-effect-on-the-economy-rbas-guy-debelle">addressed the CFA Societies Australia Investment Conference in Sydney</a>. 
"The typical lags between the sale and construction of new dwellings imply that the decline in dwelling investment will continue for some time, despite the recent signs of stabilisation in the established housing market," Debelle noted.
Debelle admitted the RBA were surprised at the decline in construction activity, with 2020 now looking to be the low year for the residential construction sector.
"Given the large size of the pipeline, we had expected construction activity to remain at a pretty high level for most of this year, but it turned down sooner and by more than we had expected," Debelle said on Thursday morning.
"Even so, much of the downturn in construction activity is still ahead."
 <img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/images/sp-dg-2019-10-17-graph02.gif" alt="Graph 2: Residential Dwelling Pipeline">
He said long lead times on higher-density construction mean the supply response is likely to be slow, and the tight conditions on lending to developers may mean it is even more protracted.
The housing construction cycle clearly turned down at the end of last year, which brought to an end a long upswing at the national level that started in 2012, Debelle stated.
Debelle did add however that the RBA can "see through the trough to the other side."
"Demand is still continuing to increase given population growth," Debelle said.
He said that the recent price turned in Melbourne and Sydney will probably bring investors back into the market.
Debelle believes investors left the market due to falling house prices, more so than the impact of tighter lending conditions.
He suggested it was possible that the 11 and 15 per cent declines in Melbourne and Sydney triggered some demand, as well as lower mortgage rates and APRA's changes to the interest rate threshold.
<h1>Housing Turnover Rate</h1>
Housing turnover decline to historically low levels earlier in the year before a slight uptick in recent months.
<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/images/sp-dg-2019-10-17-graph05.gif" alt="Graph 5: Housing Turnover Rate">
" In the past, housing prices and turnover have moved in lock step so it has been difficult to determine the impact of each channel," Debelle said.
"But with prices starting to grow again now, but turnover so far only picking up a little from its lows, we may get a better sense of which has been the bigger drag on consumption – wealth or turnover – and hence what the outlook for consumption might be now the housing price cycle has turned."
Debelle concluded his speech by saying that inflation and unemployment were a big concern.
"Unemployment is a little higher than it was at the beginning of the year, and there has not been much upward pressure on wages.
"In turn, this has contributed to the extended run of inflation outcomes below the medium-term target range.
"As a result, the Board has decided to ease monetary policy in recent months.
"We are seeking to make more assured progress towards both full employment and the inflation target."
<div class="image-graph"> To read Guy Debelle's full speech, <a href="/news/the-evolution-of-the-housing-market-and-its-effect-on-the-economy-rbas-guy-debelle">click here</a>.</div>
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2020 to be the low year for residential construction: RBA's Guy Debelle

The evolution of the housing market and its effect on the economy: RBA's Guy Debelle

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While housing sales activity slumped during the housing downturn, the recent trend shows turnover has levelled out as home values rise and mortgage rates reach the lowest level since the 1950’s.
Although the housing market appears to have moved through the bottom of a near two year downturn, sales activity remains well below normal levels.
Nationally, CoreLogic estimates that there were 367,630 settled sales over the twelve months ending August 2019; 17% lower year- on-year, and about 30% below the recent peak level of annual sales recorded over the twelve months ending September 2015.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/26/corelogic%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/26/corelogic%201.jpg" alt="">
 
Source: CoreLogic 
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The good news is that home sales appear to be stabilising, albeit at a low base. 
The six month trend has found a floor at around the same lows recorded during the previous two downturns in 2008 and 2010-12. 
The six month trend has been tracking higher since June 2019, in line with a recovery in home values.
Such a large reduction in market activity has implications for the economy, especially from a consumption perspective. 
Reduced housing activity implies less spending on retail items such as home furnishings, white goods and appliances. 
With both values and volumes falling, state government stamp duty revenues have experienced a big hit, and of course we see real estate industry and finance sector participants receiving less income based on lower rates of sale and lower values.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/26/corelogic%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/26/corelogic%202.jpg" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic 
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The drag on economic growth is compounded when housing values fall, as the wealth effect moves into reverse and households are less inclined to spend on discretionary items.
There isn’t a single trigger for the levelling in sales activity; in fact we can point to a variety of factors that have supported a turnaround in conditions.
A boost to confidence following the federal election, which removed a lot of the uncertainty around housing tax reform. Also, lower mortgage rates and policy changes from APRA which relaxed home loan servicing tests for borrowers were other likely factors driving the rebound in activity. 
Additionally there is the improvement in housing affordability driven by the 8.4% fall in housing values nationally.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/26/corelogic%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/26/corelogic%203.jpg" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic 
Most of the capital cities have seen either a stabilisation in settled sales activity or a rise in the trend rate of sales. 
Housing turnover is rising the most sharply in Adelaide, with a more subtle improvement across Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra. 
The trend in sales has stabilised across Brisbane, Perth and Darwin but is still trending lower in Hobart.
The fact that housing values are now under some upwards pressure while housing turnover remains low presents somewhat of a paradox.
One explanation for the low rate of sales activity comes back to constraints around stock available for sale. 
Newly advertised stock levels remain about 15% lower than a year ago across Australia and total advertised stock levels are still 8% lower than a year ago and haven’t been this low for this time of the year since 2010.
As housing values continue to recover and the seasonal rise in listing numbers gathers pace we are likely to see sales activity also trend higher. Credit availability remains the wildcard in a material bounce back in turnover.
Although credit policies have become a little looser, gaining loan approval remains a challenge for many borrowers, despite the lowest mortgage rates since the 1950’s.
TIM LAWLESS heads up the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team and can be contacted<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank"> here.</a>
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Housing turnover stabilises as housing conditions improve: Tim Lawless 

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The latest REIV Days on Market (DOM) figures show Metro Melbourne home vendors had their properties on the market for a median period of 34 days before a private treaty sale in August.
That’s the lowest DOM figure in more than a year.
It is well down from a high of 50 days in February which includes the holiday break.
In Inner Melbourne in August, homes spent a median period of 41 days on the market, down from an annual peak of 52 in May.
Middle Melbourne home vendors waited a median period of 38 days before a sale in August, well below a peak of 63 days in February, while Outer Melbourne vendors waited only 35 days for a sale, compared to a high of 50 recorded in February.
REIV Chief Executive Officer Gil King said the figures demonstrated again that demand for Melbourne property was outstripping supply.
"We have now had 12 consecutive weeks of auction clearance rates of more than 70%, with the past five weeks above 75%," he said.
“These clearance rates are well above what we saw in the corresponding three months last year, but volumes of available houses are well down.”
"Anecdotally there is perhaps some reticence from vendors following the correction."
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