Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Housing Market

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RBA economist Trent Saunders and RBA senior research manager Peter Tulip have created a model to summarize the Australian housing market.
"We build an empirical model of the Australian housing market that quantifies interrelationships between construction, vacancies, rents and prices," Saunders and Tulip said.
"We find that low interest rates (partly reflecting lower world long-term rates) explain much of the rapid growth in housing prices and construction over the past few years," the paid said.
"Another demand factor, high immigration, also helps explain the tight housing market and rapid growth in rents in the late 2000s.
"A large part of the effect of interest rates on dwelling investment, and hence GDP, works through housing prices.
Click here to enlarge the key model relationships in the Australian housing market.
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The model has six important equations, denoted by blue boxes.
"It also contains a large number of identities and simple forecasting equations (typically autoregressions) used for projecting forward variables we think of as exogenous," Saunders and Tulip said.
A brief discussion of each of the key points, highlighted by Saunders and Tulip, are found below. To read the full RBA release, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2019/pdf/rdp2019-01.pdf" target="_blank">click here</a>.
Building Approvals
"We model constant price building approvals for detached houses, higher-density housing, and alterations and additions separately.
"This disaggregation is useful because the different types of construction behave differently and because alterations and additions do not contribute to the number of new dwellings, an important factor in explaining the vacancy rate."
Dwelling investment and the housing stock (constant prices) 
"Dwelling investment is a volatile component of GDP and is important for macroeconomic forecasting and policy. 
"It has also been a focus of other researchers and model builders, so our predictions for it facilitate comparisons. 
"Approvals flow into dwelling investment with a long-run elasticity of 1. 
"Specifically, for each category of housing construction, we map approvals through to commencements, then commencements to work done, work done to dwelling investment, and finally, dwelling investment to the constant price measure of the housing stock.
Completions and the number of dwellings 
"The second chain of variables affected by dwelling approvals explains the number (as distinct from the value or volume) of dwellings that are built. 
"To estimate the number of approvals we remove alterations and additions and the effect of the changes in quality (most evident in larger floor sizes) from the estimates of new dwelling approvals."
Rental Vacancies
"Figure eight (below) shows components of what might be considered as ‘excess supply’ of housing. 
"The green line in the top panel shows quarterly changes in the number of dwellings. This equals housing completions (as modelled in the previous section) less demolitions.
"This is often called the supply of new dwellings, though the demand/supply distinction is difficult to apply to owner-occupied housing, which households provide to themselves.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/13/Figure8.jpg" alt="">
"These estimates are lower than the ‘housing supply’ estimates of Ong et al because we allow for both approvals that are not completed and demolitions. 
"The purple line shows what we call ‘underlying’ household formation, defined as quarterly changes in adult population, which is an important and exogenous component of underlying demand, divided by a five-year trailing average of adults per dwelling."
Housing Prices
"Research on the determinants of housing prices, both in Australia and overseas commonly focuses on the user cost of housing. 
The user cost represents the annual cost of owning a house, comprising the sum of interest payments, repairs, rates and other running costs, less expected capital appreciation.
"In the long run, this tends to be close to the cost of renting a similar dwelling. 
"If the user cost were lower than rents, households would be financially better off owning than renting and might be expected to bid up the price of houses. 
"Conversely, when renting is cheaper, there would be downward pressure on housing prices."
To read the full RBA release, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2019/pdf/rdp2019-01.pdf" target="_blank">click here</a>.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

The RBA's housing market model explained

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Consistently larger quarter-on-quarter declines saw 2018 end with Sydney house values down 10 percent at a $918,000 median, according to CoreLogic's full year index.
Melbourne also saw an accelerated decline in house values to finish 2018 down 9.1 percent to a $751,000 median, with its inner east prices hit the hardest.
Units were not as hard hit in the two major capitals, with Sydney unit values down 6.3 percent to $711,000 and Melbourne unit values down 2.3 percent to $541,000.
Overall dwelling values were down 4.8 percent across Australia, ranging from an 8.9 percent fall in Sydney values through to a 9.9 percent rise in values across regional Tasmania. 
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/1/2/Cl-Jan2full.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>.
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"The broad-based weakening in housing market conditions over the 2018 calendar year should come as no surprise," CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said adding a variety of factors are having a negative impact on the market that could persist into 2019.
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Melbourne’s top quartile housing market led the way with dwelling values down 11.2 percent over the year, while the lower quartile of the market has remained in subtle growth territory over the year (+0.5 percent). 
In Sydney, upper quartile dwelling values are 10 percent lower over the year, compared with a 6.8 percent decline across the lower quartile of the market.
Ryde ranked as Sydney's worst performing area of 2018, with <a href="/expert-insights/buying/ryde-ranks-as-sydneys-weakest-2018-housing-market-corelogic">declines of 13 percent</a>.
Melbourne's inner east was the worst performing area of 2018, seeing <a href="/expert-insights/buying/melbournes-inner-east-the-nations-weakest-house-price-market-in-2018-corelogic">declines of 13.4 percent</a>.
The over-all 7.2 percent Melbourne decline from its peak 13 months ago compares with Sydney's 6.9 percent dip when it was 13 months into its downturn.
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Although Sydney and Melbourne recorded the weakest conditions, the peak to current declines are much less severe relative to Perth and Darwin where values have been falling since mid-2014. 
Sydney values are now 11.1% lower relative to the July 2017 peak and Melbourne values are down 7.2 percent since peaking in November 2017. 
"The downturn has been running much longer in Perth and Darwin, resulting in cumulative falls of 15.6 percent and 24.5 percent respectively," Lawless noted.
At the end of 2018, Sydney values were back to where they were in August 2016, while Melbourne values are back to February 2017 levels. 
Perth values are back to levels last seen in March 2009 and Darwin dwelling values are at October 2007 levels.
Sydney prices are still about 60 percent higher than they were in 2012.
This time last year, at the end of 2017 Tim Lawless noted that the 2017 shift to falling national dwelling values was being driven by the capital cities, with the combined capitals tracking half a percent lower over the December quarter, while across the combined regional areas of Australia, values were half a percent higher over the quarter.
Amongst the capitals, the weakest end of 2017 year conditions were concentrated in Sydney and Darwin.
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At December 31, 2017 Sydney dwelling values remained 70.8 percent higher than their cyclical low point in February 2012.
The best performing capital city over the 2017 calendar year was Hobart, where dwelling values rose by 12.3 percent: almost five times higher than Hobart’s decade average annual rate of capital gain (2.5 percent).
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Sydney house values dropped 10 percent in 2018: CoreLogic

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The spring auction selling season is over, with just three more Saturdays until the summer holiday hibernation.
There were three marked trends observed during the past three months with the property market going down like a wrought iron kite.
Firstly there was a drop in auction offerings as potential vendors decided it was not worth their while to list.
Secondly the Sydney clearance rate, which bounced around, weakened overall from 50 percent plus results to somewhere in the 40s.
Then was the inevitable accompanying price decline.
There were no real surprises in this emerging auction landscape.
The bidding over-exuberance that we all saw for an extended period in the sellers' market between 2012 and 2017 has almost completely disappeared, but there are still some red hot results.
The pendulum has swung to the other extreme of utmost buyer caution. 
We now have a buyer's market, except they can't all buy what they previously thought they could afford because the bank's knee-jerk reaction to the exposure of some reckless lending exposed by the banking royal commission.
I wrote recently that a couple with one child and a dual income of $120,000 could borrow $800,000 during the boom.
Fast forward and the same couple, now with a a little wage growth to a $129,000 combined salary and another child, can only borrow $680,000 because of stricter bank lending.
Their capacity to buy has gone backwards.
We are now actually four years into the attempts by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, to curb over zealous lending, which was turbo-charging price growth.
The banking regulator's initial measure was imposing a 10 per cent speed limit on the growth in lending to investors. The cap was scrapped in April with APRA saying it had served its purpose. The reaction had already come from investors who have stopped buying in droves given the expectations of lower prices makes housing less attractive.
APRA's next measure that reduced the occurrence of interest only (IO) loans is proving to be the real sleeper in why prices are down, and likely to stay down for some time.
The regulator wisely decided IO loans needed to be constrained to preserve overall financial stability.
Interest-only, along with the tax deduction of interest payments via negative gearing, certainly made financial sense for many investors.
But the banks were reckless in encouraging ordinary home buyers to ditch the conventional interest and principal loan.
There was a lot of upsizing to bigger pricier family homes that only happened after getting an interest only loan.
For a $750,000 home loan the monthly repayment of $4,174 fell to $3,325 if only the interest was being repaid for the first few years.
Now IO buyers, who amplified the housing price cycle, helping push prices up, have mostly gone.
And for the next few years exisiting interest only borrowers will likely need to get out before the loan automatically switches back to the higher rate, so there is an increased risk of continued price deflation.
Throw in the uncertainty over negative gearing policy and the property market is understandably going to be skittish as 2019 kicks off.
There's likely to be a further compounding of bank caution flowing from the February 1 final report of the banking royal commission. Then we have the NSW state election followed by the disruptive Federal poll.
We shall see a return to normal market conditions sometime.
This article was first published in the Saturday Telegraph
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Expect a skittish start to property in 2019 in Sydney

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The performance of Australian residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), asset backed securities (ABS) and covered bonds will remain largely strong in 2019 amid a cooling housing market, according to Moody's research.
Moody's researchers noted, RMBS delinquencies will increase moderately from low levels due to a house price correction. 
Meanwhile, the securitization of small and medium enterprise (SME) and ‘green’ loans will grow in 2019.
The researchers stated, "the quality of mortgages in new RMBS issued by banks and non-bank lenders in 2019 will be healthy overall."
"However, pressure to sustain high growth could pose a risk to non-bank credit quality over the medium-term, if it pushes these lenders into riskier segments of the mortgage market," they said.
They indicated that the performance of mortgages backing outstanding RMBS will remain strong in 2019, given continued GDP growth and low unemployment.
However, mortgage delinquencies will increase moderately from low levels, given high household debt, a cooling housing market and the conversion of a large number of interest-only loans to principal and interest loans.
Moody's beleive that the securitization of SME and green loans will be a growing feature of the Australian ABS sector in 2019.
They said, "the SME ABS sector will develop amid growing lending to small businesses by emerging technology-enabled financial institutions."
"The green securitisation sector will develop gradually, on the back of growing sales of alternative fuel vehicles and improving consistency of green mortgage standards."
The performance of outstanding ABS will remain strong overall in 2019, reflecting healthy macroeconomic conditions. However, auto ABS delinquencies will increase moderately from low levels, given the increasing proportion of consumer auto loans in the underlying pools.
Moody's noted, "the credit quality of covered bond issuers is high and this will support the credit quality of covered bonds in 2019."
"The credit quality of covered bonds has also remained robust in the face of risks in the housing market, reflecting the sound quality of cover pool mortgages," they added.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Moody's see only a small rise in delinquencies in 2019 

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVATION</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Housing is Australia’s single largest asset class, worth more than four times the value of Australian-listed stocks.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In New Zealand, investment in houses represented around one third of all investor activity in a 12-month period.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Today’s choices in investment opportunity have reduced as investors are faced with low interest rates, inflation rates, taxes and a stock market that is out of an individual’s control.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Real estate is more than an asset class; it is a long-term asset wealth growth vehicle too. Real estate protects investment against inflation through the economic cycles and offers growth in response to increasing demand for property.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Investment concentrations tend to be highest within the capital cities, and we are all very aware of Sydney, Melbourne and Auckland and the machinations in those markets.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Take Sydney, Melbourne and Auckland out of the picture and look at investment potential in other major cities, mining regions, coastal markets and other markets associated with tourism and lifestyle factors.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Queensland’s improving economy, housing affordability, a rise in interstate migration and increased optimism in the market are all driving the value of the state’s residential real estate sector, for example.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Coastal and inland regions of all Australian states have the potential for rental return and capital gain. Cairns, Townsville, Mackay, Gladstone, Wagga Wagga, Dandenong and Mount Gambier are fair examples here.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In New Zealand, the average national property price climbed 65 to 70 per cent over a decade, putting in a better performance than the share market.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
Almost half the value of New Zealand homes is inside Auckland city but as that market takes a breather, look to the opportunities to in regional New Zealand: in Wellington, Christchurch, Tauranga, Invercargill and others.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>A massive opportunity to buy may exist in every Australian state and New Zealand region so don’t allow two or three markets to taint the scene.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Even within a single city, there’ll be better investment opportunities than others.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> Look at the $5 million-plus market, which appears very strong in Sydney, a good example of a truly international city with a limit to its land availability.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Every area that booms has to have a breather, and there will be opportunities to get back into that market.</div>
<div>
 MICHAEL DAVOREN is the Managing Director of RE/MAX Australia &amp; New Zealand
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Where there are markets there are opportunities: Michael Davoren

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Don Stammer has suggested after the recent surge in house prices over recent years there has been "a reasonably orderly retreat".
However he noted a "deep gloom" has descended on the housing outlook.
"One interesting thing about being an Australian is we each are surrounded by 25 million housing experts," the adviser to Altius Asset Management and Stanford Brown Financial Advisers said.
"Google the phrase 'Australian house prices' and in 0.54 of a second you’ll have a billion items on that topic to consider."
Stammer says housing, and the economy generally, does not face the full fire of dire times now feared.
"But prospects are there’ll be a further, noticeable, fall in the median house price (5 to 10%), followed by an elongated slump in house prices.
"This will involve real pain for some home owners who purchased at the peak of the cycle, paid over-the-top prices or borrowed too heavily, especially where people lose their jobs or partnerships break up."
Writing in The Australian, he noted traditional concerns for housing — the high level of household debt and mortgage stress — are exaggerated.
"But newer worries, such as the impact on bank lending from the revelations of unfair practices by the royal commission and from the likely introduction of changes to negative gearing and capital gains taxes (if the ALP wins government) will push housing prices lower and constrain recovery."
He said it won’t be easy to maintain a balanced outlook.
"Each item of news on the housing market, including weekly auction clearance figures, will be dissected to see what unpleasant news it offers on the housing outlook."
He concluded by suggesting plucking a couple of numbers — gross household debt and mortgage debt — from the aggregated balance sheet of Australian households is not enough.
"These ratios do not include important “buffers” such as offset accounts, redraw facilities and prepayments making household finances more resilient."
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'Deep gloom' has descended over housing market: Don Stammer 

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The Productivity Commission – the Australian government’s highly influential economic advisory body – released a report titled Rising Inequality? last week. The question mark indicates its scepticism about other research findings on rising inequality in Australia. The commission responded to its own question in the report’s very first heading: “Over nearly three decades, inequality has risen slightly in Australia”.
This conclusion has left commentators divided. Some have celebrated this finding. Others, such as Peter Whiteford and Ross Gittins, argued the true picture is more complex.
We wish to point out one major flaw in the Productivity Commission’s conclusion. It ignores the deeply polarising impact of the housing boom on Australia in recent years. Our analysis shows that, once rent and mortgage costs are deducted, the rate of increase in average equivalised disposable income of the top 10% of households was 2.7 times faster than for the bottom 10% between 1988 and 2015.
On average, capital city house prices have doubled since 2003. This has benefited affluent homeowners and has disadvantaged lower-income households, especially those in long-term private rental.
Housing costs undermine gains for low-income households
We examined changes in income inequality using the same method and dataset that the Productivity Commission used, with only minimal technical differences. From 1988 to 2015, average equivalised incomes for households in the lowest 10% of incomes increased by 54%, compared with 85% in the highest decile. Such a difference is by no means “slight”.
However, to reveal the full extent of rising inequality, we conducted further analysis, deducting housing costs from income. This included both rent and mortgage repayments. The results were striking: from 1988 to 2015, average after-housing disposable incomes increased by only 30% in the lowest decile, compared with 81% in the highest decile.
This analysis shows that income inequality between the highest and lowest deciles nearly doubled once housing costs are taken into account. These costs hardly affected rising incomes for the top decile. For the bottom decile, housing costs nearly halved any gains in income over the same period.
Between these extremes, as the chart below shows, there is a very linear pattern across the spectrum. Housing cost impacts on disposable incomes decline as household incomes rise.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/234735/original/file-20180904-41717-1e1h69e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Rising gap in disposable income, before and after housing costs, 1988-2015. Authors' estimates using:ABS Microdata: Household Expenditure, Income and Housing, 2015-16 (Cat. no. 6540.0, as at 3/08/18) and ABS HES Basic confidentialised unit record file for 1988-89 (as at 3/08/18)
Housing costs account for a much higher share of lower-income households’ income. Furthermore, at the bottom end of the distribution, renters have seen their rental costs increase. This has been fuelled by low vacancy rates and the absolute supply shortage of affordable rental housing.
In contrast, at the upper end of the distribution, home buyers have seen their mortgage repayments decline. This is thanks to lower interest rates and the slow but typically steady reduction in housing costs across the life course as owners pay out mortgage debt. Outright owners have not been impacted by housing costs either way.
House price growth boosts gains for wealthier households
The housing boom also played a key role in the rise of wealth inequalities, which are more extreme than income inequalities.
The Productivity Commission’s report shows that, since the early 2000s, the wealth of households in the top 50% grew faster than the bottom half. The upper deciles experienced average annual growth close to 3%. In contrast, the bottom decile experienced negative growth.
By 2015-16, those in the top 10% owned 45% of wealth. The bottom half of the distribution owned just 11%.
Property ownership rates are higher in the middle and upper deciles. For these households, house price growth made a major contribution to rising wealth.
In contrast, property ownership rates are relatively low in the bottom deciles. These households saw little or no wealth gains from the housing boom.
The report’s headline claiming only a “slight” rise in inequality over three decades seems to ignore this widening wealth gap as a crucial aspect of the story.
A national affordable housing plan is needed
Over nearly three decades of economic growth, living standards have improved for Australians across the board. This is good news.
But inequality has also risen significantly, which is bad news. Inequality creates unfair advantage for wealthier households and is deeply damaging for the social fabric, democratic stability and economic drive of our society.
Our analysis highlights the polarising impact of the housing boom, in two primary ways. Firstly, increasing housing costs undermined income gains for less affluent households. Secondly, house price growth increased wealth gains for more affluent households.
This analysis shows that rising inequality cannot be redressed without some redistribution of housing wealth and costs.
The Productivity Commission report commended the “equalising effect” of Australia’s progressive income tax. Including housing in our analysis, however, points to the polarising effect of taxation on wealth and housing. The tax system disproportionately benefits more affluent home owners and property owners.
An increased supply of affordable rental housing is crucial to reduce the gap in after-housing disposable income. Low-income private renters also need greater security of tenure, including more stringent controls on rent increases.
A renewed focus on affordable home purchase schemes for people on moderate incomes can help reduce the wealth gap. In addition, housing tax levers, used well, can help reduce both wealth and income inequalities over time.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102581/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Ilan Wiesel, Senior Lecturer in Urban Geography, University of Melbourne
Liss Ralston, Urban Statistician, Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of Technology
Wendy Stone, Associate Professor, Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of Technology
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-housing-boom-has-driven-rising-inequality-102581" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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How the housing boom has driven rising inequality

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EXPERT OBSERVER
CoreLogic reported that although national dwelling values are falling, the impact is not having much of an affect at the lower end of the housing market with volume of sales under $400,000 continuing to trend lower.
With dwelling value growth having slowed over the 2017- 18 financial year to a decline of -0.8% from an increase of 10.2% over the previous year, it has done little to add to sales of the most affordable properties.
Last week, we noted how there was starting to be fewer seven-figure sales as values decline, this week our analysis shows that the share of sales under $400,000 has continued to decline over the past year.
Nationally, 29.2% of all houses and 34.6% of all units sold over the 2017-18 financial year transacted for less than $400,000.
The share of sales below this price point has fallen from 30.7% for houses and 35.4% for units a year earlier.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/23/CL%20PP%201%20Nat.JPG" alt="">
 
The share of sales below $400,000 has increased slightly over the past few months for both houses and units. An historic low 13.9% of combined capital city house sales and 25.8% of capital city unit sales were under $400,000 over the 2017-18 financial year.
The share of sales below $400,000 has fallen over the year from 16.2% of houses and 27.1% of units. Although capital city dwelling values are falling, there continues to be fewer sales occurring below the $400,000 threshold.
The share of sales below $400,000 is predictably much larger across regional areas of the country than within the capital cities.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/23/CL%20PP%202%20CC.JPG" alt="">
 
Over the latest financial year, 49.6% of all regional house sales and 57.3% of all unit sales were for less than $400,000.
House sales under $400,000 were at a record low and down from 51.6% the previous year while unit sales under $400,000 have increased over recent months but are lower than the 58.0% a year earlier.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/23/CL%20PP%203%20Reg.JPG" alt="">
Very few houses or units have transacted for less than $400,000 in Sydney over the 2017-18 financial year. Over the 12 months to June 2018, 2.5% of houses and 5.8% of units sold for less than $400,000.
The share of house sales under $400,000 was an historic low and has fallen from 3.1% over the previous financial year.
The 5.8% of units sold for less than $400,000 over the year was up marginally from 5.7% over the year to March 2018 but was well down on the 6.7% a year earlier.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/23/Cl%20PP%204%20Syd.JPG" alt="">
 
As Melbourne dwelling values have climbed over recent years there has been a significant decline in sales under $400,000 to the point where almost no houses sell for less than $400,000.
Over the 2017-18 financial year, an historic low 2.7% of Melbourne houses sold for less than $400,000 which was down from 9.5% over the previous year.
The share of unit sales under $400,000 continues to fall and sits at just 21.5% of all sales over the past year, down from 28.0% the previous year.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/23/CL%20PP%205%20Mel.JPG" alt="">
While dwelling value growth has been quite weak in Brisbane over recent years, the share of sales occurring for less than $400,000 has generally trended lower.
Over the past 12 months, an historic low 22.8% of all house sales were under $400,000 which was down from 26.1% over the previous year.
The ongoing weakness in the unit market has seen the share of sales under $400,000 increase from 45.3% a year ago to 46.8% in 2017-18.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/23/CL%20PP%20Bri.JPG" alt="">
 
Adelaide dwelling values have been increasing at a slow pace over recent years and despite the slow growth, the share of sales under $400,000 has continued to fall.
Over the 2017-18 financial year, 36.6% of all house sales and 55.4% of all unit sales were under $400,000.
The 36.6% of house sales under $400,000 was a record low and down from 39.8% of sales a year earlier.
The 55.4% of unit sales under $400,000 was down from 59.1% over the previous year but slightly higher than the 55.2% over the 12 months to April 2018.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/23/CL%20PP%20Adl.JPG" alt="">
Following a number of years of falling dwelling values across Perth, the share of house and unit sales under $400,000 is now beginning to trend higher.
Over the 2017-18 financial year, 26.7% of all house sales were under $400,000 which was the greatest share under this price point since June 2013 and up from 23.8% a year earlier.
51.3% of all unit sales were under $400,000 over the year which was up from 45.6% a year earlier and the highest share since January 2010.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/23/CL%20PP%20perth.JPG" alt="">
While Hobart still has a large share of properties selling for less than $400,000, the strong growth in dwelling values is resulting in a declining share, which is currently at a record low for houses and units.
Over the 2017-18 financial year, 43.0% of all houses and 69.5% of all units sold were under $400,000.
By comparison, a year earlier, 52.7% of all house sales and 78.0% of all unit sales were less than $400,000.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/23/CL%20PP%209%20Hobart.JPG" alt="">
 
Although the Darwin housing market has seen falling values for a number of years, there hasn’t been a significant increase in sales of houses for less than $400,000 but there has been for units.
Over the 12 months to June 2018, 25.4% of all house sales were less than $400,000 which was down from 29.6% over the previous 12 months.
For units, 64.3% of all sales were under $400,000 which was up from 40.9% a year earlier and the greatest share since the 12 months to December 2009.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/23/CL%20PP%2010%20DARWIN.JPG" alt="">
The share of houses and units sold for less than $400,000 in Canberra has fallen over the past year as values have continued to rise.
An historic low 2.4% of house sales were under $400,000 over the year down from 4.4% the previous year. 33.9% of all unit sales were under $400,000 down from 36.3% a year ago.
Perth and Darwin have seen the share of sales under $400,000 increase after a number of years of value declines.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/23/CL%20PP%20%2011%20CNB.JPG" alt="">
 
In closing, with values now falling in Sydney and Melbourne it is unlikely to initially result in an increase in sales under $400,000 however, should it continue for a number of years we may finally see a reversal of the declining trend in sales under $400,000.
Cameron Kusher is senior research analyst at CoreLogic RP Data
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Proportion of homes sold under $400,000 at historic low: Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The value of Australian housing finance commitments rose slightly in May, but not by enough to offset recent weakness.
The value of monthly approvals is more than five per cent lower than a year ago. Investors are the main driver of this weakness, edging down another 0.1% m/m, while the owner-occupier segment is performing better (+0.8% m/m). 
The fall in investor demand is clearly related to APRA’s macroprudential policies.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/11/ANZ-1.JPG" alt="">
In 2015, the 10% speed limit on investor borrowing saw a sharp drop in the presence of investors, and the subsequent limit on interest only loans in 2017 has had a similar impact.
Even the removal of the 10% growth limit, announced at the end of April 2018, is unlikely to drive renewed strength.
As a result, the share of new lending going toward investors is at the lowest level in several years. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/11/ANZ-2.JPG" alt="">
The fall in investor borrowing is also seen in finance for the construction and purchase of new dwellings, which continues to fall.
This provides further evidence that we have moved past the peak in building approvals.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/11/ANZ-3.JPG" alt="">
A central feature of our view on the housing market is that credit conditions continue to tighten through the remainder of 2018.
This is expected to result in further weakness in housing finance going forward, which will in turn weigh on housing prices and building approvals.
Daniel Gradwell is a Senior Economist at ANZ Research
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Australian housing finance up in April, unlikely to be sustained: Daniel Gradwell

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CoreLogic have released their national housing update for June.
Tim Lawless, head of research at CoreLogic, said the downward trend continued in May.
"Nationally dwelling values continued their downwards trend last month; the seventh consecutive month on month decline since the national index series peaked in September last year," he said.
"While the national market has slid into reverse, many of the trends we have been following over the past five years have reversed." 
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