South East Queensland developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a>’s entry into the Gold Coast apartment market has progressed from pipeline to market, with its Chevron Island project Bronze on Chevron now formally available to purchase ahead of a planned 2029 completion.

The 119-apartment development on Mawarra Street marks the Brisbane-headquartered builder-developer’s first residential play in the Gold Coast, following its expansion south from Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> comprises a mix of two-, three- and four-bedroom residences, with pricing starting from just over $1.5 million. The project is being delivered under Gardner Vaughan’s fully integrated model, with the group acting as both developer and builder, a structure it has consistently applied across its South East Queensland portfolio.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367182]

Architecture has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jeremy-ferrier-landscape-design">Jeremy Ferrier</a>. The building presents as a single-tower scheme, with a focus on maximising outlook across both the Surfers Paradise skyline and the Nerang River.

Apartments have been planned with open-plan living zones extending to generous balconies, a response to the site’s dual-aspect positioning between river and ocean. Interiors follow a restrained coastal palette, with two colour schemes offered, and an emphasis on natural light and cross-ventilation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367181]

Resident amenity is concentrated across more than 1,250 sqm and includes a resort-style pool, gym, yoga lawn and rooftop entertaining areas. A function space with catering facilities forms part of the upper-level offering, alongside north- and south-facing outdoor areas.

Ground level will incorporate two retail tenancies, intended to extend the existing village character of the surrounding streets.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367200]

The project sits within walking distance of Thomas Drive’s established dining strip, while maintaining proximity to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Surfers Paradise</a> beach and broader Gold Coast amenity. The location, positioned on Chevron Island between the river and coastline, has increasingly attracted mid- to high-density development in recent years as the precinct evolves beyond its low-rise origins.

Gardner Vaughan’s move into the Gold Coast was first signalled in 2025, with the group identifying the region as a natural extension of its operations. Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge described the expansion as both “strategic and natural”, citing demand for well-designed apartments in lifestyle-driven markets.

Construction is expected to complete in early 2029.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]

Joel Robinson

Gardner Vaughan brings Bronze on Chevron to market as Gold Coast debut

One of the penthouses at Lily Lane, the latest stage of Carrington Place by Ellipse Property, has set a new local apartment price record.

The four-bedroom residence, purchased by a local downsizer, sold for $5.75 million—around 75 per cent higher than the previous record of $3.3 million.

Over 40 per cent of the first release of apartments at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lily-lane-at-carrington-place-castle-hill-32-carrington-road-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Lily Lane</a> have already been snapped up just six weeks since it launched to the market.

&nbsp;

Located at 32 Carrington Road, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/castle-hill-nsw-2154">Castle Hill</a> and designed by award-winning architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ptw">PTW</a>, Lily Lane is directly opposite the Hills Showground Metro station. It offers a total 213 units over two 12-storey towers - a mix of 67 one-bedroom, 100 two-bedroom and 46 three-bedroom apartments - with a ground-floor retail offering.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=368352]

Blake Schulze, National Director – Residential at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/colliers">Colliers</a>, says around 44 per cent of buyers are&nbsp;owner occupiers, with 35 per cent being investors and 21 per cent first homebuyers.

“Developments of this calibre are very rare in the Hills District, and Lily Lane’s sales success demonstrates the depth of demand for over-sized apartments that genuinely compete with freestanding homes," Schulze says.

"We are seeing particular demand from downsizers who want to remain in the area but transition into spacious, high-quality apartment living."

On the penthouse sale, it says it shows buyers&nbsp;are prepared to pay a premium for scale, quality, and direct access to the Metro.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=368351]

One-bedroom apartments are sized from 50-72 sqm with prices starting at $745,000, while two-bedrooms are priced from $990,000 with sizes from 75 to 132 square metres. Three-bedroom floorplans are sized between 97 and 182 sqm,, with prices starting at $1,395,000.&nbsp;

The three remaining penthouses, spanning up to 262 sqm, are priced from $2.9 million.

Over 75 per cent of apartments include dedicated studies, multipurpose rooms or family rooms, with select layouts offering walk-in pantries and laundries. Apartments are appointed with premium Miele appliances including ovens, washing machines, dryers, gas cooktops and dishwashers, while larger residences also incorporate integrated Miele microwaves, Fisher &amp; Paykel integrated refrigerators and five-burner Miele cooktops.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=360285]

Lily Lane will be constructed by award-winning iCIRT-rated builder <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/decode">Decode Group</a>, with construction to commence in mid-2026 and expected to complete early 2029.

Carrington Place comprises more than 800 apartments and is being delivered across multiple stages, with completion expected in 2032. Integrated with neighbouring bushland, the project will feature over 20,000 sq, of outdoor recreational area, including a one-kilometre boardwalk to Fred Caterson Reserve.&nbsp;

The Hills Showground Metro Station is just a two-minute walk away, offering fast connectivity to Sydney’s CBD, North Sydney, Chatswood, Macquarie Park and Norwest Business Park.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151821]

Ellipse sets Castle Hill apartment record with $5.75 million Lily Lane penthouse sale

Fresh off completing its Delano Crows Nest development, Lindsay Bennelong has lodged plans for its next project, this time turning its attention to the beach.

The developer, founded by Clarendon Homes founder Peter Campbell, is proposing a 37-apartment scheme at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-25-ashburner-street-manly-nsw-2095">17-25 Ashburner Street</a>, Manly, positioned between the southern end of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/manly-nsw-2095">Manly</a> Beach and East Manly Cove.

Lindsay Bennelong called on local architecture firm Platform Architects to design the new building, given their success on The Finn, Lindsay Bennelong's current luxury apartment project on North Steyne.&nbsp;

According to the Design Verification Statement by Bridie Gough of Platform Architects, the proposal “relates to the current context but also the desired future character of taller buildings suitable to the new planning controls.”

The site has been identified as a Low to Mid-Rise Housing (LMR) location, given its position within 400 metres of the Manly Town Centre E1 Business Zone. The LMR controls are intended to unlock additional housing supply in well-located areas close to public transport, allowing developers to seek increased height limits to support greater density.

“The proposal seeks to provide this increased level of housing whilst being respectful of some of the smaller scale buildings also nearby,” the statement reads.

Lindsay Bennelong Development Director Leigh Manser said the project has been carefully aligned with the intent of the LMR controls. The proposal will significantly increase housing yield on the site, replacing four houses and 10 apartments, comprising 25 bedrooms, with 37 new apartments delivering a total of 94 bedrooms.

“Sydney is in a severe undersupply, and delivering more dwellings and more bedrooms than what currently exists is exactly what the LMR policy is designed to activate,” Manser said, noting that nine of the apartments will be allocated as affordable housing for frontline workers.

“We have already commenced discussions with our community housing provider to determine the rental levels that frontline workers can realistically afford in this location,” he said. “These will need to sit well below the standard affordable housing benchmark of 20 per cent below market rent, and that has been factored into our feasibility and pricing.”

<img alt="Manly" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ad03000f-19f9-48b4-b27d-e85ca800a1da" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%208.41.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=a.txHwCZgbCInlQ6QXbIrI.umvW1T.r8" />

The design of the building incorporates a wave-like indentation running through the façade, referencing the nearby coastline and anchoring the building within its local context.

The&nbsp;Design Verification Statement says careful consideration has been given to the articulation of the building, ensuring the bulk is broken down to a more human scale through a defined four-storey podium."

The scheme includes a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments.

“The design ensures a high level of amenity, with apartments offering generous private open space, many with expansive views, and all with comfortable proportions."

<img alt="Bennelong" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6a7f2812-72a1-4959-84b0-997e8cd88aed" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%2010.15.50%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=6iMxU3MkXmHVHAoNhYBjnqgka8CUZNbk" />

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lindsay-bennelong-developments">Lindsay Bennelong</a>&nbsp;is currently developing Finn Manly, just three full-floor luxury apartments on North Steyne. They recently welcomed residents to its 81-unit Delano Crows Nest development, a&nbsp;carefully scaled infill project designed to bridge&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/crows-nest-nsw-2065">Crows Nest</a>’s lively village centre with its surrounding heritage streets.

Designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ajc-architects">AJC Architects</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/delano-crows-nest-27-57-falcon-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Delano</a>&nbsp;is arranged across three low-rise buildings, incorporating a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom apartments alongside a limited number of townhomes addressing Hayberry Lane. The architectural approach draws on the area’s Art Deco lineage, reinterpreted through contemporary detailing and framed by landscaped communal gardens.

The developer also has a development site in Maroubra.

First look: Lindsay Bennelong's new Manly apartment development revealed

Fifty-nine residences across 37 levels. No more than two per floor. With 80 per cent now sold, what remains at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/madeline-by-mosaic-broadbeach-22-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">Madeline by Mosaic</a> is a short list.

Madeline was always conceived at a scale that sits outside the normal register of Gold Coast apartment living. The residences are half- and full-floor configurations, with the largest spanning more than 400 sqm, dimensions that place them closer to the penthouse end of the market regardless of where they sit in the building.

That scale is the organising principle of everything else: how the floorplans are laid out, how the materials read, how the connection between inside and outside works.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=355941]

The interiors were developed in collaboration with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser &amp; Partners</a>, the architecture practice&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mosaic-property-group">Mosaic</a> brought in as design partner for the first time on this project. The palette runs to natural stone, textured timbers, and soft metallics, materials chosen as much for their tactile quality as their appearance.

Light cleverly shifts across surfaces through the day, and the design is explicit about wanting that to be noticed. Full-height glazing runs across the primary living areas, and where the building faces east toward the ocean, those walls of glass are doing real work: framing a view corridor that the site's position directly opposite Broadbeach State School's playing fields keeps permanently open.

That outlook is the site's most consequential asset. In a suburb where new towers continue to rise, a protected view line is genuinely rare, and the Mary Avenue address secures it. Residents at Madeline will look out over open parkland rather than the rear of another building, a distinction that becomes more meaningful with each new development approved nearby.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=355939]

The private outdoor spaces are sized to match the residences themselves. Terraces on the upper levels frame uninterrupted ocean panoramas, and the planning ensures that living areas extend into those outdoor zones rather than treating them as separate attachments. The flow between the two is part of the design intent, not an afterthought.

Inside, the finish specification reflects the same approach. Rich stone benchtops, warm timber joinery, bespoke hardware, each element specified to hold up over time rather than read as a moment in a particular trend cycle.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=3409]

Beyond the residences, the amenity offering extends that register. A lap pool and sun deck anchor the outdoor space, alongside a magnesium pool, cold plunge, steam room, and sauna.

A commercial-grade gymnasium, residents' lounge, library, and boardroom round out a programme that functions more like a private members club than a standard building amenity floor.

Construction has commenced under Mosaic's in-house building arm, with completion scheduled for late 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150135]

Madeline by Mosaic delivers penthouse-level living across every apartment

Developer Fortezza Group is the latest to take its new apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-belvedere-5-7-church-street-nelson-bay-nsw-2315">The Belvedere in Nelson Bay</a>, to the NSW Government.

Fortezza, predominantly a South East Queensland developer, is the latest to apply for State Significant Development&nbsp; status through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority, a pathway becoming favoured by developers to speed up the approval process.

They are planning 57 two- and three-bedroom apartments across 5-7 Church Street and 42 Donald Street, near d'Albora Nelson Bay Marina. The diverse apartment mix has sizes from just over 80 sqm to the largest three-bedroom penthouses that reach nearly 200 sqm.

<img alt="Fortezza" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="090360e1-66d7-43ad-b686-aba81f173bf2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-29%20at%2010.22.40%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=DMqF96eBZolqSAAAcugX0l66ueWng66m" />

Fortezza calls the project a "piece of Istria in Nelson Bay,"&nbsp;referring to the largest peninsula in the Adriatic Sea, shared by Croatia (90%), Slovenia, and Italy, which is known for its Roman history, Venetian-style coastal towns and inland hilltop villages.

They say the The Belvedere is strategically positioned at the apex of Nelson Bay, offering unrivalled views of the ocean, the bay and captivating topography of the area.

"Our commitment to maintaining the integrity of every view and sight line has been relentless," Fortezza Group says.

"Through extensive modelling and analysis, we ensure that each apartment enjoys the natural beauty of Nelson Bay, regardless of future developments. Each design element is carefully curated to harmonise with our European heritage, drawing profound inspiration from the Roman architectural marvels in Istria. The arches, the cascades of greenery and the stonework that define our project pay homage to the structures that once exemplified Roman grandeur."

Residents will have access to a pool, communal green spaces, an office and a coffee shop.

First look: Fortezza Group takes The Belvedere, Nelson Bay apartment development, to NSW Government

Growth Forecast

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After a stronger than expected housing turnaround, NAB are now forecasting dwelling values to rise by an average of eight per cent nationally across 2021, with a view that 2022 will also see strong gains.

The revision comes after the turnaround in the housing markets, pared with low interest rates, the government's HomeBuilder grants and stamp duty concessions on newly built properties.

"The housing market has fared significantly better than expected over the past year, despite significant headwinds from slower population growth and a weaker labour market," the NAB report read.

"Lower interest rates and household income support from the Federal Government have been a key support amidst the challenges of the pandemic.

"While the impact of lower rates is broad-based, there are some key dynamics underlying our forecast."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90553]

NAB expect the smaller capitals to continue to outpace Sydney and Melbourne, but the two biggest capital city markets have closed the gap from NAB's previous forecasts.

In the Q2 update in mid-2019, NAB were forecasting a -4.3 per cent average decline across the country, with Melbourne (-7.3 per cent) and Sydney (-4.7 per cent), driving the losses.

In Q3, following a positive response to COVID-19, NAB flipped their forecast, predicting five per cent gains nationally over 2021 and Melbourne (+3.6 per cent) and Sydney (+4.4 per cent), going full circle.

Now NAB expect nearly eight per cent gains average, with Sydney and Melbourne not far behind other capital city markets.

<img alt="" height="791" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/nab_q4_forecast.jpg" width="1200">

They expect the best performer to be Brisbane, where there are 10.1 per cent gains forecast for 2021 and 6.3 per cent for 2022.

Adelaide and Hobart are predicted to see the strongest gains over 2022, up 7.4 per cent after 8.9 per cent and 9.7 per cent gains over 2021.

Sentiment has been on the turn for a number of months and the NAB Residential Property Index ended 2020 at a survey high +45 points. Confidence levels returned to levels last seen before COVID in late-2019 as expectations lifted sharply for house price growth across the country.

<img alt="" height="905" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/nab_sentiment_q4.jpg" width="1200">

NAB economist Alan Astor says first home buyer demand remains very strong in new and established housing markets and is likely being supported by historically low interest rates and government support such as the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme and HomeBuilder.

"The brief pullback in house prices earlier in the year may have also helped sentiment among these buyers."
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The revision comes after a stronger than expected housing market, pared with the low interest rates, the government's HomeBuilder grants and stamp duty concessions on new properties.



NAB raises dwelling price forecast for 2021 and 2022

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There will be no huge spike in office market values in the post-COVID world.
That's the view of NAB's Q3 Commercial Property survey, which is forecasting declines to 2022.
There's only good news for Western Australia in the near term, whose values are forecast to decline -2.4 per cent in the next 12 months.
Then they expect the market to be flat to Q3 22.
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Nationally, NAB expect capital growth in the office market to contract -3 per cent in the next 12 months, driven by VIC (-3.6 per cent), QLD (-3.4 per cent) and NSW (-2.9 per cent).
The SA and NT office market are forecast to fair slightly better over the next year, with declines of -3.2 per cent forecast.
"Property professionals see Office markets remaining “somewhat” over-supplied over the next 1-5 years in all states bar NSW (“neutral” in 5 years)," the reported read.
"The 12-month confidence measure was weakest for Retail (-71) property, followed by Office (-63), with confidence levels in both sectors little changed from the record low levels reported in Q2."
"The 2-year measure was also broadly unchanged at near record lows in both sectors (Retail -47; Office -40)."
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The national office vacancy rate lifted to a two and a half year high of nine per cent in Q3, up from 8.5 per cent in Q2, primarily driven by an increase in QLD (11.8%). 
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Overall vacancy is expected to climb further to around 10% in the next 1-2 years, with increases in VIC (around 8.7%), NSW (around 8%) and QLD (around 131⁄2%).
<div class="page" title="Page 2">Unsurprisingly, with many commercial tenants still struggling in a challenging economic environment, the rental outlook remains weak for office property.</div>
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Over the next 12 months, rents are expected to fall -3% in office.
Rental growth is expected to continue falling in over the next 1-2 years, and in all states, with VIC (next 12 months at -4.9%) and QLD and SA/NT (in 2 years at -3.5%) under most pressure in office markets.
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Slow return to normal for office values, with WA the best performer: NAB

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Brisbane dwelling prices will outperform those in Sydney and Melbourne in 2020, according to Westpac.
They believe the Queensland capital will see eight per cent increases next year, above the six forecasted for the two major capital city markets.
Westpac suggest the strong momentum in Sydney and Melbourne will fade as affordability issues re-emerge and population slows.
Brisbane is well positioned due to its affordability and population inflows.
 "Momentum heading into 2020 is clearly positive, albeit uneven across markets," Westpac advised.
They said in the near term, the main guidance comes from current price momentum, auction markets, listings and their buyer sentiment measures.
"Nationally, these are all showing positive prospects for early 2020 with price growth accelerating, auction clearance rates riding high in Sydney and Melbourne, listings showing a clear tightening and a positive pulse from buyer sentiment pointing to a further lift in demand.
"The cyclical momentum is strongest in Sydney and Melbourne but is also showing a notable pick up in Brisbane. Adelaide and Hobart are seeing a more muted lift with Perth yet to pull out of its multi year price decline.
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They predict a number of factors to shape residential property over 2020.
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<div class="column">"The first is policy - we expect the RBA to cut rates by another 25bps at its February meeting and to turn to so-called unconventional policy measures to provide additional stimulus," Westpac advise.</div>
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<div class="column">The second factor is supply, both in the form of sellers returning to the market and the physical supply of new dwellings. New listings fell to extreme lows in 2019.</div>
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<div class="column">"Our analysis suggests the listing cycle tends to follow the sales cycle by about six months. A likely lift in new listings will test the depth of demand in the first half of 2020. The supply of newly built dwellings will also remain elevated. Completions eased back from a record 218k in 2018 to an estimated 205k in 2019.</div>
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<div class="column">"Our projections have this easing to around 175k in 2020, still well above average pre-boom levels with about 50k of that high rise dwellings. New supply could prove difficult to absorb and will weigh on prices and rents in some segments – Sydney’s rental vacancy rate and Melbourne’s stock of unsold units being key areas to watch.</div>
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<div class="column">Westpac believe would-be buyers in Sydney and Melbourne will be priced out of the markets and will seek more affordable markets if the current price resurgence continues, which will slow growth.</div>
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<div class="column">"As 2020 unfolds we expect another dynamic to come to the fore around affordability and population flows.</div>
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<div class="column">"Despite the price correction in 2017-18 and a further lowering in interest rates, affordability remains relatively stretched in Sydney and Melbourne.</div>
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<div class="column">"The resurgence in prices see these markets run into the same affordability constraints that emerged in 2016-17 as prices near previous peaks.</div>
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<div class="column">"Investor activity will lift as low deposit rates and equity volatility drive more interest in real estate but funding is likely to remain a constraint on investors."</div>
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Brisbane to outshine Sydney and Melbourne dwelling prices in 2020: Westpac

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EXPERT OBSERVER
In 2020, there will be several political and economic factors that will continue to impact Sydney’s property market. 
Douglas reveals his 12 property market forecasts for 2020:
1.       Property owners will continue to sit on their hands. Listings will continue to be at relatively low levels as a significant proportion of property owners will wait and ‘time the market’ until they are certain prices have peaked again. For this reason, Sydney property buyers might be rewarded with more stock at the end of 2020. Once this happens, prices will creep closer to their early 2017 levels – though won’t quite reach them.
2.       A stampede of first home buyers in January. The landscape in 2020 is set to change again for first home buyers: further financial stimulus will be introduced to assist them, with the Morrison Government’s First Home Loan Deposit Scheme commencing on 1 January. While I stand by my argument that this was a pre-election gimmick by the Coalition Government to win votes, it will undoubtedly lead to an immediate stampede of first home buyer numbers in the first few weeks of next year. This is a ‘first-in, best-dressed’ scenario, so I won’t be surprised to see first home buyer numbers slow once these spots are filled.
3.       Property prices to increase 5-10 per cent. With relatively low property stock continuing alongside increased buyer interest, house prices will rise between five and 10 per cent next year, depending on the suburb – if the political and economic environment remains stable. Only in August, CoreLogic reported that the number of properties listed for sale were at their lowest levels since 2010. Price rises might exceed 10 per cent if the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates again – as some are currently forecasting for the near future. Finally, as the banks now have their lending restrictions in place, I’m not expecting the bank regulator APRA to intervene in the short-to-medium term.
4.       Average days on market to fall. The imbalance between supply (low) and demand (high) will lead to shorter property marketing campaigns in 2020. Already in Sydney, the median days on market has shortened by seven days between August and September this year and will continue to fall. 
5.       Build quality to remain in the spotlight. Last year’s Opal Tower crisis and this year’s Mascot Towers event has heightened the spotlight on build quality. This will continue in 2020, as the State Government begins to implement the first tranche of its building reforms. But as these reforms will only apply to buildings yet to be constructed, the problem of build quality will continue to make headlines. The rush to get apartments built and sold in the housing boom meant shortcuts may have been taken. Although there are rogue developers who do cut corners, more often than not, the vast majority are reputable and are being compliant. The problem is we’re chastising them, when maybe we should be looking more closely at building regulations. There are significant changes ahead to increase compliance and enforcement in the building and construction industry and, I predict, even talks of a possible royal commission in 2020.
6.       Houses will continue shrinking. Australians used to have some of the biggest free-standing houses in the world, but now they are starting to shrink: the average size of a new house built in Australia was 228.8m² in 2018-19, down from 231.8m² in 2017-18 – which is the smallest since 2001-02. Sydney’s geographic limitations allow it to expand north-west and south-west only, meaning homes will become smaller in an effort to house more dwellings. Practicality has also crept in. As a nation, we’re not cooking as much as we once were, and so the sizes of our kitchens are also getting smaller. With apps like Deliveroo and UberEATS at our fingertips, the focus is much less on cooking than it is on convenience.   
7.       Developers will start to create homes suited to specific demographics, opposed to the cookie-cutter approach of the investor boom. With apartments accounting for roughly one-third of all new dwellings approved for construction in Australia from 2014 to 2018, it’s no surprise that developers mastered a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach. It was easy for them to market off-the-plan properties months before building work commenced and keep them as fuss-free as possible; mainly 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom, ‘no frills’ units.With many more millennials and downsizers entering the market, however, more developers have realised that they must adopt new configurations to suit the needs of a changing demographic. Downsizers, for example, are seeking terrace houses or single-story villas that offer low-maintenance lifestyles.
8.       Australians re-mortgaging in record numbers. Many Sydney mortgagees will take advantage of the low interest rate environment in 2020. With the lending environment becoming more competitive, and borrowers more open to smaller lenders, we’ll also see more mortgagees shopping around and switching lenders to secure a better rate. Even a quarter of a percent saving on a mortgage rate can equate to thousands of dollars over the life cycle of a loan. As always, I recommend mortgage holders speak to an independent broker, as they have full access to the market and are impartial.
9.       Exurbs will grow around Sydney. Exurbs are prosperous areas outside, or on the fringe of, a city’s metropolitan area. They are fairly self-sufficient population ecosystems in their own right and have good infrastructure and amenities. In Greater Western Sydney, these are areas such as Box Hill in the north west and Oran Park and Menangle in the south west. I’m expecting a greater number of exurbs around Sydney, and existing exurbs to enjoy continued growth.
10.   More landlords considering multiple occupation. A house in multiple occupation (HMO), or a house of multiple occupancy, is a UK-coined term that describes residential properties where ‘common areas’ exist and are shared by more than three people not from the one household (for example, a family) – and it’s an emerging trend here in Australia. In areas of Sydney, particularly around its universities, more young people are choosing to live in such a manner and I’m seeing landlords looking to adapt their properties for this purpose. This requires them to comply with additional regulations for the management and health and safety of the property and its occupants.
11.   British and Hong Kong residents will look to invest here because of political volatility and the weak Australian dollar. In light of Brexit and Hong Kong’s political crisis and a weak Australian dollar, a proportion of anti-Brexiteers and Hong Kong residents will look to the Australian property market as a safehaven. However, China’s Supreme Court this year introduced strict penalties for its citizens transferring money out of the country to buy property overseas, so unless Hong Kong residents are incredibly ‘creative’ they will face barriers to investing in property here.
12.   Stamp duty to be reviewed. Stamp duty is a cash cow for the NSW Government: In the 2016-17 financial year, it generated them a whopping $8 billion. However, as a result of the recent property market slump, the NSW Treasury has since suffered a fall in stamp duty revenue – revenue was $7.4 billion in 2018-19 and $6.9 billion in 2019-20.[7] With property stock levels predicted to remain low next year, it’s in the interests of the State Government to conduct a full review of its stamp duty model, and I predict these conversations will play a key role in State politics in 2020.
Douglas Driscoll is CEO of real estate group Starr<a href="https://www.starrpartners.com.au/"> </a>Partners.
 
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Sydney property market predictions for 2020: Doug Driscoll

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Commonwealth Bank have updated their forecast for the 2020 dwelling markets on the back of the resurgence over the last few months.
They now expect national dwelling prices to grow six per cent in 2020.
CBA senior economist Gareth Aird has called the rebound in demand "phenomenal."
"Back in July we updated out dwelling price forecasts and extended the profile to end-2020," CBA senior economist Gareth Aird said.
He noted however that they only expect modest price rises over H2 2019 and 2020.
"We flagged that the risks to our forecast profile were to the upside, but a V-shaped recovery was not our central scenario," Aird added.
Commonwealth Bank expect Sydney and Melbourne to drive the national forecast, each to be up seven and eight per cent.
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/11/15/CBA%20Forecasts.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
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Brisbane and Canberra will follow with four per cent gains, with Adelaide and Hobart house prices to grow three per cent.
There's finally good news for Perth and Darwin.
After major losses, the two strong mining capitals aren't expected to see declines in 2020. Perth is forecast to see 2.5 per cent growth, while Darwin will remain flat.
National dwelling prices have risen 3.7 per cent since bottoming out in June, however they still remain seven per cent below the September 2017 peak.
Aird says there are two key downside risks to their view on property prices.
"First, the reintroduction of macro-prudential measures to slow the growth in lending," Aird stated.
"Measurers introduced a few years ago to slow both the rate of growth in lending to investors and rate of growth in interest-only lending were successful in slow dwelling price appreciation.
"Second, a lift in the national unemployment rate above 5.5 per cent would likely result in dwelling prices not lifting as much as we expect."
Aird also cited two key upside risks to CBA's forecasts, the first being if there is another cut in the official cash rate.
"We expect one further 25bp cut to the cast rate in Q1 2020 which should result in a further reduction in mortgage rates," Aird said.
"But any move to UMP (unconventional monetary policy) that results in mortgage rates moving lower than we expect would likely result in dwelling prices inflating by more than we anticipate.
Aird added that if there were to be any further policy changes to boost housing demand such as first home owner grants or lower stamp duty, to domestic or foreign buyers, then prices could go higher than the forecast.
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Rebound in property demand "phenomenal" as CBA forecast higher 2020 prices

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The quick turnaround in the housing market looks to be more prolonged than many forecast according to new research from SQM Research.
In the new 'Christopher's Housing Boom and Bust Report 2020', Melbourne house markets could climb up to 15 per cent.
The report offers four scenarios that could play out over 2020, with the base case the most likely.
Should the cash rate remain at 0.75 per cent and there be a recovery in the economy, as well as no intervention from APRA until late 2020, then house prices in Melbourne will return to the peaks of late 2017.
Sydney gains are likely to be slightly more modest, with <a href="/expert-insights/buying/sydney-house-prices-could-jump-14-per-cent-in-2020-sqm-research">gains forecast up to 14 per cent</a>.
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“The Sydney and Melbourne housing markets have recorded a sharp turnaround in the 2nd half of 2019 following on from the surprise result of the Federal Election, interest rate cuts, the loosening of credit restrictions and ongoing strong population growth rates," SQM Research boss Louis Christopher says.
"These factors are expected to drive the national housing market into 2020. In a close call, APRA is expected to not immediately intervene despite the strong price rises."
Christopher notes however he has some misgivings on the sustainability of the new recovery.
"Sydney and Melbourne are rising from an overvalued point. Long term, our two largest housing markets look vulnerable and forever reliant on cheap credit. Housing debt, while falling compared to GDP over 2019, is still very high.
"Better value can definitely found elsewhere such as Perth and Brisbane”, said Christopher.
Nationally SQM believe dwellings will rise between seven per cent and 11 per cent.
At the most unlikely end of the scale, scenario four, if rates were cut to 0 and quantitative easing begins, then house prices in Sydney and Melbourne could be flat, or see marginal gains.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Melbourne house prices tipped to rise by up to 15 per cent: SQM Research

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There seems to be no stopping the housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne, with strong growth forecasts for 2020 emerging off the back of the near two year downturn.
NAB have forecast house values in the two major capital city markets to rise 7.4 per cent in 2020.
"We have revised up our expectations for residential property prices," NAB chief economist Alan Oster advised.
"Prices have risen relatively sharply over the past 3 months after bottoming in April - led by gains in Sydney and Melbourne.
"Overall, we now expect the CoreLogic 8-Capital City house price index to be down around -0.6% in 2019, but to return to positive reads in Melbourne and Sydney.
"We expect prices to continue to rise at a moderate pace in 2020, lifting by 4.5% over the year.
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NAB said they changed their forecast given the "significant adjustment" in prices on the east coast since mid-2017 after 15 per cent and 11 per cent peak to trough declines in Melbourne and Sydney.
"Despite these declines being relatively large, the adjustment appears to have occurred in an orderly manner following earlier prudential tightening and waning of domestic and foreign investor demand," NAB said.
"These adjustments also followed a period of exceptional growth, with Sydney prices having increased by over 70% in the 5 years prior to the downturn, while Melbourne prices were up over 50%."
NAB believe market activity will remain weak despite the stabilisation in prices.
"Dwelling investment is expected to decline relatively sharply over the next few quarters - though from a high base.
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"While the pipeline of work to be done remains high, it is likely this will be quickly eroded with high rates of work done. 
"Building approvals have continued to trend down, suggesting little replenishment to the flow of new work."
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The NAB Residential Property Index <a href="/news/nab-residential-property-index-ticks-into-positive-for-first-time-since-mid-2018">has moved back into positive territory</a> for the first time since mid-2018, reflecting the uptick in market activity in recent months.
NAB has <a href="/news/melbourne-apartments-to-outperform-sydney-in-2020-nab">forecast stronger growth in Melbourne apartments in 2020</a> compared to Sydney.
 
 
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Sydney and Melbourne house values to rise over seven percent in 2020: NAB

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Australia is set to ride the global growth wave.
 We forecast above-trend (and above-consensus) growth of 3.2% in 2018.
An improving business sector and tightening labour market should lift wages growth, supporting household spending.
We expect the RBA to start lifting its cash rate around mid- 2018 and see the AUD rising to US84 cents in 2018.
Hangin’ ten on a global wave 
A wave of global growth is gaining momentum and should support Australia’s economy in a number of ways. First, commodity prices have lifted, boosting national incomes, corporate profitability, and tax revenues. Second, rising global demand is supporting demand for exports of energy commodities, high-quality food products, and tourism and education. Finally, the lift in global optimism is supporting a pick-up in business conditions, driving rising local investment and hiring. 
We expect GDP growth to pick up from 2.4% in 2017 to 3.2% in 2018 (consensus is 2.8%). This outlook is underpinned by HSBC’s above-consensus China growth forecast (6.7% versus 6.4%) and our view that the lift in local business conditions will continue to support hiring, which, as it tightens the labour market, should drive a pick-up in wage growth. The lift in wage and jobs growth is expected to support stronger growth in household incomes, consumer spending, and tax revenues. 
Although Australia’s housing construction boom is coming to its end, we expect the drag to be more than offset by a stabilisation in mining investment (after significant declines in previous years), a pick-up in investment in urban infrastructure, and by rising business investment. Overall, investment is set to rise solidly in 2018. 
We see house price growth slowing in 2018, after a five-year boom. However, we do not expect significant price falls, as the market is supported by strong population growth, some expected loosening of prudential settings, and mortgage rates that are still historically low (despite our view that they will edge higher in 2018). 
The clearest signs of improvement in the economy are in the labour market. Jobs growth has been strong and the timely indicators suggest continued solid momentum. We expect the unemployment rate to fall to a ‘full employment’ level in 2018, supporting a pick-up in wages growth. We also expect growth in 2018 to be the most broad-based across regions and industries in more than a decade, which should see increased demand for skills across a wide range of areas, supporting wages growth. 
We expect the RBA to lift its cash rate in 2018, with a first hike pencilled in for Q2. With hikes expected, we see the AUD rising to US84 cents in 2018. 
<a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC.  
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Australia in 2018 : Surfs up! Cash rate too! Riding the global growth wave

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Australia’s housing market will likely record moderated dwelling price rises in 2018, with Melbourne again being the top mainland performer, according to SQM housing expert Louis Christopher in his end of year review.
In 2018, Mr Christopher expects national house prices to rise between four and eight percent.
It will be led on the mainland by Melbourne with a gain of seven to 12 per cent.
Hobart will be even stronger at eight to 13 per cent.
SQM tips Canberra will show five to nine per cent price growth.
 Sydney house prices are forecast to rise four to eight per cent. 
Perth will tick over into mildly positive territory, with small gains tipped in Adelaide and Brisbane.
His SQM tips are unamended from his full October annual report.
His tips of between 4 percent to 8 percent in 2018 represent a fall from a growth rate of what has been around 4.2 percent national growth over the past 12 months with a national median price of $549,000, well below the 5.8 percent rise in values in 2016 and 9.2 percent gain in 2015.
Melbourne’s property market will lose some momentum, according to predictions in Christopher’s Housing Boom and Bust Report. 
Offsetting a slowdown in Melbourne and Sydney will be first-year property market recoveries for Perth and Darwin and the ongoing boom in Hobart’s property market, which is set to record the highest level of price growth of any capital city at between 8 percent to 13 percent, Christopher said.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/18/Crash1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/10/18/Crash1.jpg" alt="">
 
SQM Research tipped 2017 capital city house price growth to have been between six to 12 per cent - with Corelogic daily index showing a 4 percent rise across its five capital city index for 2017.
The SQM Research boss acknowledges his 2017 forecast for Sydney house prices to surge 11 to 16 per cent was an over-estimate, according to The Australian Financial Review, given APRA moved earlier that Christopher anticipated.
"The Sydney market was picking steam earlier this year. But APRA acted earlier than we forecasted. Our forecast assumed they would step in the market sometime in the third quarter," he said.
Christopher acknowledged the APRA move was "prudent."
"At the end of the year the market was flat with a number of areas recording some price falls," <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://vimeo.com/247084937" target="_blank">he told a Harris Partners Talking property vimeo</a>.
It was March when the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority announced all deposit-taking institutions were to cut back on origination of interest-only loans to a maximum 30 per cent of total lending.
"Sydney was an overvalued market to begin with so was more susceptible," Christopher advised as to why Sydney bore the brunt of the turndown.
SQM's 2017 Boom and Bust Report scenario forecasted an acceleration of dwelling price rises in Sydney and Melbourne with Sydney dwelling prices forecasted to rise 11 percent to 16 percent for the 2017 calendar year, while Melbourne was forecasted to rise by 10 percent to 15 percent.  
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<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/11/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-11%20at%209.46.04%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div>The forecast assumed a stable interest rate environment, a stable exchange rate and no further home lending restrictions by APRA until late 2017. </div>
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<div>"I think the odds are reasonably high that APRA is going to remain relatively quiet over the course of 2018, and indeed we are aware the banks are now under the required threshold set by APRA for investor credit growth and interest only loans, so the banks actually have a buffer to expand their lending book next year," Christopher said last month.</div>
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<div>"We are a little bit more positive than perhaps some analysts for Sydney (in 2018)," Christopher affirmed.</div>
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