Not all apartment amenities are immediately visible.

Swimming pools, gyms, rooftop terraces and residents' lounges have long featured on buyers' wishlists, but as the way Australians live has changed, so too have the features that make apartment living more convenient.

Increasingly, buyers are placing value on the practical aspects of day-to-day life. Fast internet, EV charging, secure bike storage, flexible workspaces and parcel management are becoming just as relevant as lifestyle amenities, reflecting changing habits and expectations.

Online shopping has been one of the biggest drivers of that shift.

Australians spent a record $82.6 billion shopping online in 2025, with almost one in every four retail dollars now spent digitally, making parcel deliveries a routine part of everyday life rather than an occasional convenience.

For apartment residents, however, receiving those deliveries isn't always straightforward.

Without someone home to accept a parcel, deliveries can be redirected to a nearby Post Office, left in building foyers or common areas, or require building management to temporarily store packages. As apartment living continues to grow across Australia's cities, parcel management has become an increasingly important consideration for both residents and developers.

Australia Post's Parcel Locker network is one response to that shift.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KPZ9j5FRdsQ?si=Qztc1dNP3ZvEIUhb" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

Rather than relying on home delivery, eligible parcels can be directed to a nominated Parcel Locker, where they're securely stored until collected. Once a parcel arrives, residents receive a notification through the AusPost app or SMS and can retrieve it using a one-time code or QR code at a time that suits them.

The network has expanded to more than 1,500 locations nationwide, with Parcel Lockers positioned at Post Offices, shopping centres, supermarkets, transport hubs and, increasingly, within or alongside residential developments.

That growing presence reflects a broader change in how apartment buildings are being planned.

Developers are increasingly considering the operational side of apartment living alongside traditional lifestyle amenities. Just as secure mailrooms, bicycle storage and EV charging have become more common inclusions, parcel management is emerging as another feature that supports everyday convenience.

It also helps preserve the arrival experience within a building. Carefully designed lobbies and communal spaces can quickly become cluttered when deliveries accumulate, while secure parcel solutions reduce the likelihood of missed deliveries or parcels being left unattended.

For buyers comparing apartments, these everyday details are becoming part of the decision-making process.

Location, floorplans and finishes remain fundamental, but the features that simplify daily life are carrying greater weight than they once did. As online shopping continues to shape consumer behaviour, secure parcel delivery is increasingly becoming another amenity worth looking for.

Joel Robinson

Parcel delivery is joining the apartment amenity checklist

Inca Property Group has lodged a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for Dawn, a 53-apartment oceanfront development overlooking Mona Vale Beach.

The proposal, at 35-39 Darley Street East, would replace an existing 18-apartment strata building with a new owner-occupier-focused development comprising 53 two and three-bedroom apartments, including nine affordable built-to-rent residences delivered under the State's infill affordable housing scheme.

Positioned on a 2,679 sqm elevated site around 280 metres from Mona Vale Beach, the development has been designed to maximise panoramic ocean views while responding to the site's sloping topography.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/inca-property-group">Inca Property Group</a> Managing Director Josh Thompson said the State Significant pathway provided greater certainty for projects of this scale.

"This State Significant pathway gives the team real certainty to progress <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/dawn-35-39-darley-street-east-mona-vale-nsw-2103">Dawn</a> through to completion," Thompson said.

"It allows us to acquire a one-off site, design it carefully and deliver the right offering for the suburb, assessed by the NSW Government's planning department."

The project is one of the first developments in the area to be assessed under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy, with the site sitting on the edge of the policy's designated inner area.

The proposal includes three basement levels providing 124 car spaces, alongside a range of resident amenities including a swimming pool, gym, sauna, wellness facilities and private plunge pools for selected ground-floor and penthouse apartments.

<img alt="Dawn" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fc1a1daf-0ce4-4f12-9076-b1fa553c7a91" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-21%20at%208.42.11%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4GZ9h.gpNkTljbxyAET8Jfhv51XUamDm" />

Thompson said Dawn had been designed specifically for owner-occupiers and downsizers, a buyer profile that has driven demand across Inca's recent Upper North Shore developments.

"The majority of buyers in our recent North Shore projects have been downsizers, and we are learning exactly what this market is looking for. Beyond the location itself, we have included resort-style amenities to deliver a genuine lifestyle offering," Thompson said.

Located within walking distance of Mona Vale Beach, the town centre, Mona Vale Golf Club and the Royal Motor Yacht Club, Dawn represents Inca's first Northern Beaches project following the sell-out of Tara on Park in Waitara and Ellis Residences, currently under construction in St Ives.

Construction will be undertaken by Inca's in-house construction arm, GOP Constructions.

Dawn is the latest major apartment proposal for Mona Vale, with the suburb emerging as one of the key beneficiaries of the NSW Government's new Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy.

New developer One Living, led by industry veteran Joseph Scuderi, recently secured a site on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, where it is planning around 140 apartments.

IPM is also planning its third project in Mona Vale, significantly increasing the scale of its previous developments with an 82-apartment proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/159-167-darley-street-west-mona-vale-nsw-2103">159-167 Darley Street West</a>, opposite Bayview Golf Course and less than 800 metres from Mona Vale town centre.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/one-living-enters-sydneys-new-apartment-market-with-northern-beaches-site-acquisition">One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-ipm-plans-third-mona-vale-project">First look: IPM plans third Mona Vale project</a>

First look: Inca eyes Mona Vale with State Significant DA for Dawn apartments

Seasoned Victorian apartment developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a> has logged more than $400 million in sales in its luxury apartment project Palmera Residences at Northcliffe on the Gold Coast.&nbsp;

Central Equity Director Karl Kutner said the sales result reflected a combination of location, product quality and delivery certainty with the project already under construction by building powerhouse Multiplex.&nbsp;

"Surpassing $400 million in sales since launch is a significant milestone and an outstanding endorsement of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera Residences</a>,” he said.&nbsp;

"We believe one of the key reasons for this strong result is the confidence purchasers have in knowing the project is under construction with Multiplex. Buyers are increasingly looking for certainty. They want to know that the project they commit to today will be delivered by an experienced team with a proven track record."&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365782]

Kutner said it was clear there was still high demand for luxury projects that offered certainty of delivery.&nbsp;

“We are in a market where many residential developments have faced delays due to rising construction costs, labour shortages and financing challenges,” said Kutner.&nbsp;

"But having construction underway has provided our buyers with resounding confidence backed by more than 40 years of development delivery by Central Equity combined with construction by one of Australia's most respected construction companies."&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365785]

Central Equity is one of Australia's most experienced privately-owned property developers. Over more than four decades, the company has delivered in excess of 85 residential developments including 10,000 apartments and many thousands of stand alone homes.&nbsp;

Located on Garfield Terrace at Northcliffe, between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach, Palmera Residences occupies one of the Gold Coast's most sought after beachside locations. The development has been designed to appeal to owner occupiers seeking premium residences that combine generous living spaces and resort style amenities.&nbsp;

Palmera Residences will feature an exceptional collection of resort style amenities, including two swimming pools: a generously sized family pool with safe shallow zones for relaxed recreation, and a 20 metre lap pool positioned to maximise all day sunlight.&nbsp;

Residents will also enjoy exclusive access to wellness and recreational facilities including a magnesium pool, sauna, yoga studio, expansive fitted gymnasium, resident lounge, outdoor BBQ’s&nbsp;and indoor and outdoor dining areas, together with a dedicated concierge and luxurious hotel inspired entrance foyer.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365767]

A unique feature at Palmera Residences has been designed to enhance the Gold Coast lifestyle which includes both indoor and outdoor gymnasium facilities, together with thoughtfully designed indoor and outdoor dining and entertaining areas. A corner café has also been incorporated to provide residents with a destination for their everyday needs.&nbsp;

Kutner said buyer demand had been broad based with purchasers attracted from interstate as well as throughout South East Queensland.&nbsp;

"We're seeing strong interest from owner occupiers, lifestyle buyers and people relocating to the Gold Coast. Many purchasers have been searching for a premium beachside residence where quality, design and delivery are equally important."&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Kutner said the sales milestone was an important achievement, but the focus remained firmly on delivering an exceptional development.&nbsp;

"While reaching $400 million in sales is an important milestone, our priority remains delivering a project that exceeds purchaser expectations,” he said.&nbsp;

"Palmera Residences has been designed to become one of the Gold Coast's landmark residential addresses, and we look forward to welcoming our purchasers to their new homes."&nbsp;

There are a limited number of residences remaining in selected configurations with pricing from $2,950,000 to $8,950,000. Palmera Residences is also crowned by expansive penthouses with wrap around views.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

Construction certainty and strong buyer demand drive major sales result for luxury Gold Coast development

Palmera Residences fly out the door as sales pass $400 million

National property developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/goldfields-group">Goldfields</a> has appointed BINAH as its construction partner for Quartet, its new Brisbane apartment development in the undersupplied suburb of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/milton-qld-4064">Milton</a>.

Located just two kilometres from the Brisbane CBD and moments from key 2032 Olympic precincts, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/quartet-milton-33-manning-street-milton-qld-4064">Quartet</a> will deliver 131 one, two, three, and four-bedroom apartments priced from $1 million to $4.2 million, combining elevated design with a wellness-focused lifestyle offering.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108736 project_image_fid=368000]

Goldfields’ Chief Executive Officer, Lachlan Thompson, said the appointment of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/binah-constructions">BINAH</a> marked an important milestone for the project.&nbsp;

“Bringing BINAH on board as our construction partner will allow us to bring our vision for Quartet forward with a team that has a proven track record of delivering high-quality residential projects,” Thompson said.&nbsp;

“We’ve taken a considered approach to progressing the site because we wanted to deliver the whole package. Buyers ultimately back great developers, great projects and great builders, and with Quartet, we’ve made sure all three line up.

“People want certainty, they want to know the project will be built, that the homes will be delivered as promised, and that the developer stands behind the quality of what they create. That’s something Goldfields has built its reputation on over many years.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108736 project_image_fid=367993]

BINAH’s Managing Director, Khalil Hafza, said the company was proud to be partnering with Goldfields to deliver Quartet.&nbsp;

“Quartet is an exciting project to bring to life, particularly given the level of detail in the residences and the extensive rooftop amenity planned for the building,” Mr Hafza said.&nbsp;

“Our focus is on delivering a high-quality build that brings that design vision to life and creates homes residents will enjoy for many years.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108736 project_image_fid=367999]

The facilities at Quartet have been feared towards the roof, with a&nbsp;25 metre lap pool, spa, sauna and cold plunge, and a communal barbecue area and alfresco.

Town planning was designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> and brought to life by Melbourne-based architecture firm Cera Stribley.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/cera-stribley">Cera Stribley</a> Co-Founder and Managing Principal, Dom Cerantonio, said the project responds to both its riverside setting and Brisbane’s evolving urban character.&nbsp;

“Quartet has been designed to sit comfortably within its riverside context, offering a refined take on urban living through well-planned, generously proportioned residences that will stand the test of time,” Mr Cerantonio said.&nbsp;

“An emphasis on natural light, natural textures and carefully selected finishes from timber and marble to premium appliances, creates calm, considered interiors designed for comfort and long-term liveability.”&nbsp;

Construction of Quartet will commence in July 2026, with completion anticipated in Q4 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108736]

Construction to commence on 131-residence tower designed around wellness-focused living

Goldfields appoints BINAH for Quartet apartments in Milton

The first partnership between national developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/fortis">Fortis</a> and Adelaide-based developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/otello">Otello</a> has made a strong start, with the pair securing $21 million in unconditional sales at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/one-four-four-hutt-adelaide-144-hutt-street-adelaide-sa-5000">One Four Four Hutt</a>&nbsp;on the edge of the Adelaide CBD.

Over a third of apartments have been snapped up in the boutique 44-apartment project on the corner of Hutt Stret and Wakefield Road. Local downsizers and owner-occupiers wanting to remain in Adelaide's tightly-held southeast quarter have been the most prominent purchasers.

The DKO-designed, mixed-use development is one of the few new apartment projects in the precinct, an area where new housing supply has remained limited despite continued demand from buyers wanting to stay close to the CBD, Victoria Park and Adelaide's established east-end amenities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151233 project_image_fid=375378]

Fortis Head of Development SA Arthur Dendrinos said the early sales reflected both the strength of the local owner-occupier market and confidence in the Hutt Street location.

"The level of early commitment reflects the confidence local buyers have in the Hutt Street precinct," Dendrinos said.

"Many purchasers are long-term east-end residents who love the area and want to stay connected to the neighbourhood. They recognise the value of a well-designed, well-located development.

"Our partnership with Otello has been central to this success, and the number of unconditional sales at this stage only strengthens our confidence in the South Australian market."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151233 project_image_fid=375379]

Otello Director Daniel Harris said the sales result also highlighted the lack of new apartment opportunities within the Hutt Street precinct.

"One Four Four Hutt has clearly resonated with buyers, with strong early sales reflecting both the appeal of the Hutt Street corridor and the lifestyle on offer," Harris said.

"The activated ground-floor retail has also been a key drawcard, with purchasers responding to the vision of a more vibrant and connected streetscape, not just the residences themselves."

One Four Four Hutt will deliver 44 one, two and three-bedroom apartments, alongside a collection of penthouses, above a ground-floor retail offering designed to further activate the Hutt Street precinct.

Construction is scheduled to commence in the third quarter of this year, with completion anticipated in 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151233]

Fortis Head of Development SA Arthur Dendrinos said the early sales reflected both the strength of the local owner-occupier market and confidence in the Hutt Street location.

Fortis makes Adelaide debut with Otello as One Four Four Hutt records strong early sales

Employment

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EXPERT OBSERVER
February Labour Force Survey: Total employment: 4.6k from 38.3k (revised from 39.1k), unemployment rate: 4.9% from 5.0% (unrevised 5.0%), participation rate: 65.6% from 65.7% (unrevised 65.7%).
Employment growth slowed in February lifting 4.6k less than what the market was looking for (median +15k) but a touch better than Westpac’s forecast of –5k. So far 2019 has had a sound start for the labour market with a three month average gain of 21.1k/per month. 
Through 2018 total employment grew 274.5k, or 2.2%yr, with a solid momentum into year end with a six month annualised pace of 2.3%yr. 
While it is just second month into the year, employment grew 284k in the year to February (2.3%yr) but the six month annualised pace has moderated from 2.9%yr in January to 2.3%yr in February.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/21/employment%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/21/employment%201.jpg" alt="">
 
Source: Westpac
As highlighted in our preview we are very cautious about making too much of the January/February releases given the large underlying seasonality in these months. However, what we can say is that it does appear that the momentum in employment has slowed. 
As such, there is nothing in this release to make us change our view that employment growth will take a breather through the first half of 2019 leading to a lift in unemployment. But, to be fair, the fall in the unemployment rate to 4.9% also means that at this point in time, the RBA will also feel little pressure to change their forecast for the unemployment rate to fall to 4¾%.
 It will all come down to who is the better forecaster.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/21/employment%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/21/employment%202.jpg" alt="">
 
Source: Westpac
In February, in reverse to the January result, the mix of employment gains painted a soft picture with a 7.3k loss in full-time employment offset by an 11.9k gain in part-time employment. However, hours worked was a bit more upbeat in the month with total hours worked up 0.2% (total employment was flat in the month) as hours worked per person gained 0.1% due to average hours worked rising for both full-time and part-time employees. 
In the year to February total hours worked has lifted 2.2%yr which is on par with the 2.3%yr pace for employment.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/21/employment%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/21/employment%203.jpg" alt="">
 
Source: Westpac
Despite the soft print on employment, the unemployment rate fell to 4.9% (market median was 5.0%) as a 0.1ppt decline in the participation rate to 65.6% (65.57% at two decimal places) resulted in a –7.1k decline in the labour force. At this stage it appears that both male and female participation is levelling out in a trend sense and we are closely watching where they go next. We do expect both to edge lower though 2019 H1 as employment growth stalls.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/21/employment%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/21/employment%204.jpg" alt="">
 
Source: Westpac
February was a soft month for employment growth across the states. Employment fell 5.8k in NSW (+128.9k in the year) and the unemployment rate lifted to 4.3% from 3.9% which was a 30 year low in unemployment for that state. In Victoria, employment lifted 5.7k (+136.7k in the year) but with a lift in participation, the unemployment rate lifted to 4.8% from 4.6%. 
Queensland employment lifted in February 6.4k (+20.4k in the year) but a decline in participation saw the unemployment rate dip to 5.4% from 6.1%. In WA employment rose 2.8k (+7.7k in the year) with the 1ppt fall in unemployment to 5.9% being supported by a 0.6ppt fall in participation. Meanwhile in SA a lift in employment 3.8k (–0.1k in the year) in February saw the unemployment rate ease back 0.6ppt to 5.7%.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/21/employment%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/21/employment%205.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac
Overall, while the annual pace of employment growth has picked up in Victoria, and eased back in NSW, NSW can still claim the mantle of having the lowest unemployment rate.
 Victoria was the state showing the greatest improvement through 2018 with the unemployment rate down 2ppts to 4.2% in December while in NSW unemployment fell just 0.5ppts to 4.3%.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/21/employment%206.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/21/employment%206.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac
We are closely watching how these trends continue through 2019 – NSW did surprise in January by dipping below 4%, but it has since bounced back to 4.3%, while Victoria’s improvement does look to be cooling with the unemployment rate holding above 4.5%.
It is these two states, and how their labour markets will respond to falling house prices, a contraction in construction activity and weak retail sales, that is behind our expectation for the unemployment rate to rise through the first half of this year. While we are cautious about interpreting too much from the January/February releases, we see nothing in them that makes us nervous about our forecasts.
It is also worth noting that in 2018, for all the strength in the labour market, the underemployment rate only declined 0.2ppt. So far there has been a further improvement with the rate falling from 8.3% in December to 8.1% in February. Again, we would caution that so far we have only see the January and February prints, so would not project that this improvement can be sustained, but nevertheless, it is another indicator of just how robust the labour market was at the end of 2018.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/21/employment%207.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/21/employment%207.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac
For 2019, we are looking for a pause in the pace in employment growth due to the economic uncertainties surrounding the Federal Election at the same time as we expect to see a moderation in momentum in NSW and Victoria on the back of a moderation in housing activity. With reasonable estimates for the participation rate, our weaker jobs growth profile has the unemployment rate lifting to 5.5% in the second half of 2019 and further by end 2020.
JUSTIN SMIRK is ‎a senior economist for Westpac 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Australian employment saw a February pause: Justin Smirk

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Total employment lifted a very solid 39.1k in January well clear of the market median of 15k and a market forecast high of 27k. The year has started with a solid trend pace of employment growth with a three month average gain of 31.9k. In the year to December total employment grew 268.5k, or 2.2%yr, with a solid momentum into year end with a six month annualised pace of 2.2%yr. While it is just one month into the year, employment grew 271k in the year to January (2.2%yr) with a very solid 2.9%yr six month annualised pace.
There is, however, an important caveat for the January Labour Force Survey – January is the peak holiday month in Australia as Christmas, New Year and school summer vacation all come together. As such it is the month where little happens in Australia and economic activity stalls. In original terms total employment fell –234.5k in January (an average of –263.9k in the previous three years) so we are always cautious about reading too much into a January print.
The mix of employment gains also painted a very solid picture with a +65.4k gain in full-time employment only partially offset by a –26.3k loss in part-time employment. In the month total hours worked rose 0.4% (total employment rose 0.3%) as hours worked per person gained 0.1%. In the year to January total hours worked has lifted 3.2%yr which is a robust pace compared to the 2.2%yr pace for employment.
Despite the strong gain in employment, the unemployment rate was flat at 5.0% (market median was for 5.0%) as a 0.1ppt lift in the participation rate to 65.7% (65.72% at two decimal places) boosted the gain in the labour force to 45.7k.
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/21/unemployment%201%20.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac
As 2019 starts, NSW picks up the mantle as the state with the strongest labour market. In the month, employment lifted 47.2k (161.6k in the year), unemployment fell to 3.9% (a new record low) and confirming this is a strong print (rather than a soft unemployment rate due to declining participation) NSW employment to population ratio has also hit a new record high of 62.6%.
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/21/state%20employment%20.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac
In January Victoria continued to make gains (2.2k/114.2k in the year) but it was a different story in the other states. Queensland employment pulled back (–19.9k/5.6k in the year) while employment was flat in WA (0.8k/0.9k in the year) and fell in SA (–4.5k/1.6k in the year).
Victorian unemployment did lift in the month (4.5% from 4.2%) allowing NSW to clearly reclaim the mantle of having the lowest unemployment rate.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/21/unemployment%202.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac 
Victoria was the state showing the greatest improvement through 2018 with the unemployment rate down almost 2ppts to 4.2% in December while in NSW unemployment fell just –0.5ppts to 4.3%. The Qld labour market appears to have stalled with the unemployment rate lifting 0.1ppt to 6.1% while it has been flat in SA at 5.9% and lifted in WA from 5.8% to 6.4%.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/21/unemployment%203.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac 
We are closely watching how these trends continue through 2019 – NSW has surprised us by dipping below 4% while Victoria’s improvement looks to have stalled. Will this shift through the first half of 2019? How will these labour markets respond to falling house prices, a contraction in construction activity and weak retail sales. Our expectation is for the unemployment rate to rise in NSW and Victoria. 
It is also worth noting that 2018 produced a –0.2ppt decline in the underemployment rate from Q1 to Q4. In January there was a further improvement in underemployment to 8.2% (from 8.3%) the lowest print in underemployment since March 2015. Again we would caution that this is a January print so would not project that this improvement can be sustained but nevertheless, it is another indicator of just how robust the labour market was at the end of 2018.
For 2019 we are looking for a pause in the pace in employment growth due to the economic uncertainties surrounding the Federal Election at the same time as we expect to see a moderation in momentum in NSW and Victoria on the back of a moderation in housing activity. With reasonable estimates for the participation rate, our weaker jobs growth profile has the unemployment rate lifting to 5.5% in the second half of 2019 and further by end 2020.
Justin Smirk is ‎senior economist, Westpac Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/westpac-group/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Solid momentum behind Australian employment: Westpac's Justin Smirk

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Labour market data provided two contrasting perspectives on Australia’s economy. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment strengthened, and business conditions remained above average.
Following last month’s 5.0% unemployment rate, a level historically regarded as consistent with full employment, the <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2018/November/Labour-FI_chart_packOct18.pdf" target="_blank">Australian labour force survey for October</a> was keenly awaited. It certainly did not disappoint, with the unemployment rate remaining at 5.0% despite a partial reversal of the 0.2ppt decline in participation seen in September. On a multi-month basis, it is employment not participation that is driving the unemployment downtrend. At October, annual employment growth stood at 2.5%yr, nearly a percentage point above population growth. Furthermore, those gains have largely been full-time in nature.
The above trend is favourable for household income growth, increasing aggregate hours worked across the economy and reducing slack. However, this tightening of the labour market is yet to stoke wages growth. In the September quarter, <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2018/November/WPI_Q32018.pdf" target="_blank">the wage price index</a> rose just 0.6% (2.3%yr) and was weaker still for the private sector at 0.5% (2.1%yr). Arguably this disconnect between wages and employment growth is in part due to considerable underemployment (those working less hours than they would like to). That said, the current level of underutilisation is historically consistent with wages growth around 2.5%yr, not the 2.1%yr currently being seen in the private sector. Herein is evidence of other factors being at play, principally globalisation; technology; and a focus on efficiency amongst large corporates.
In terms of the outlook for wages, it is troublesome that the states of NSW and Vic, who have seen a more aggressive downtrend in unemployment and underemployment, are also yet to see a substantial lift in wages growth, respectively 2.2%yr and 2.5%yr at September.
The enduring disconnect between wages and employment arguably is a key reason why <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2018/November/er20181114BullConsumerSentiment.pdf" target="_blank">family finance perceptions</a> continue to lag households’ economic and labour market expectations; and now, even as family finance views are shifting to above long-run average levels, why ‘time to buy a major household item’ is at 18 month lows and spending intentions for Christmas are the weakest they have been since 2014. House price expectations, which are now on par with their lowest ever level back to mid-2009, are decidedly unfavorable for spending, as is the pressing cash-flow reality of high household debt. Weakness in consumer spending was also evident in the <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2018/November/er20181113BullAustralianBusinessConditionsOct.pdf" target="_blank">NAB business survey</a> for October, particularly in NSW. That said, while confidence is now below average in aggregate, conditions for businesses remain above average overall on the back of robust trading conditions and profitability.
Moving offshore, data released this week for China points to the investment trend having troughed. That said, the acceleration in activity will be slow in coming amid headwinds from ongoing structural change in the finance sector and, to a lesser extent, uncertainty associated with trade policy. On that front, murmurs of the US’ being willing to compromise with China on trade bolstered markets overnight. President Trump will meet President Xi at the end of the month. The hope is that this conversation can turn the tide and stop any further intensification of tensions. This would only be a starting point for negotiations however. Many hurdles must be overcome for a lasting solution to be attained.
For the US, data has been light but broadly supportive of the ongoing robust, non-inflationary uptrend in activity continuing, with the CPI benign in October (annual core inflation at 2.1%yr) as retail sales beat expectations (0.8%). Admittedly retail sales were bolstered by Hurricane season replacement spending in October and higher oil prices in the month, but underlying momentum remained robust. Chair Powell again showed confidence in the US economy and the outlook this week despite weakening residential investment and uncertainty over the lasting benefit of fiscal policy to growth. Recent market volatility is not a material concern, nor are global risks and trade tensions. But all are being watched closely. The move to hold a press conference after every FOMC meeting and to review “strategies, tools and communication practices” highlight a desire by Chair Powell and the Committee to be more nimble as this cycle matures. 
For Europe (and the UK), Brexit has again been the focus. A brief respite from Brexit uncertainty was seen mid-week as the UK Cabinet rubber stamped a transition deal agreed by UK and European negotiators. But multiple ministerial resignations the day after consequently put Prime Minister May’s position and the deal in jeopardy. It is not at all clear if the current deal will remain let alone what a replacement deal might look like. Of course the final deal, whatever its terms, then has to be passed by both the UK and EU parliaments. On the Italian budget, the Government has remained steadfast in not adjusting the proposal in response to disagreement from the European Commission. Whether the European Commission goes through with imposing infringement penalties will be of key interest in the weeks ahead.  
Elliot Clarke is senior economist at Westpac and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Strong jobs growth yet to spur wages and spending: Elliot Clarke

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EXPERT OBSERVATION 
The expected bounce in employment appeared in the October Labour Force Survey with a 32.8k rise.
The market median was for 20k. However, just as we saw in September, the mix was again positive with a 42.3k rise in full-time and a small 9.5k decline in part-time employment. In addition hours worked rose 0.3% following on from a 0.4% gain in September.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/15/westpac%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/westpac%201.jpg" alt="">
 
Source: Westpac IQ
Perhaps more important is the continuation of the trend improvement in unemployment.
Sure, in the month unemployment was flat at 5.0%, but this is a good result seeing as the 0.3ppt drop in unemployment to 5.0% in September was due to a large drop in participation rather than a strong employment print.
As such there was always a risk the participation rate would bounce this month. Participation did rebound this month, but the 0.1ppt rise to 65.6% still left it under the 65.7% print in August.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/15/westpac%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/westpac%202.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac IQ
Last month suggested that you need to take a holistic view of the Labour Force Survey and accept that some of the monthly volatility is associated with the survey groups being rolled into, and out of, the sample. This meant that while the 5.6k print (revised to 7.8k) on employment was too soft compared to underlying momentum, the fall in unemployment to 5.0% was also too aggressive. As such Westpac was forecasting a bump in employment in October and also a rise in unemployment (to 5.1%).
The fact that employment had a robust rise in October, and the unemployment rate was flat due a modest rise in participation, suggests the trend decline in unemployment remains in place. We had been forecasting that unemployment would end the year around 5.1%. Based on the current trend, it is more likely to be around 5.0%, if not below. It is only our expectation for participation to drift back up to 65.60% (currently 65.56%) that is holding unemployment at 5.0% at year end.
In terms of risks for November, the ABS notes that the outgoing sample group has the same employment to population group as the sample average, so by itself, the rolling of that group will not impact employment. However, that same group has a higher unemployment rate compared to the sample average so rolling that group out will lower the sample average. All else held equal, this presents downside risk to our unemployment forecast for November.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/15/westpac%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/westpac%203.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac IQ
For a few months we have noted the robust labour market conditions in Victoria where unemployment had fallen to be almost on par with NSW (the national low for a large state). The last time this happened was when Victorian unemployment was on a rising trend. This matters because Victorian wages have been more responsive to changes in labour market conditions than the other states but especially compared to NSW. This month unemployment fell 0.1ppt to 4.5% in Victoria while it was flat in NSW at 4.4% (a 10 year low for this state). So Victoria continues to narrow the gap to NSW in terms of unemployment suggesting we need to keep a close eye on Victorian wages going forward.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/15/westpac%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/westpac%204.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac IQ
By state, the largest gains in employment were in NSW (+16.3k following +1.1k in September) while Victorian employment fell (–3.5k after a robust +20.7k). It is the ongoing trend decline in Victorian participation that has been a key driver of falling national unemployment hence we are a little nervous about following this trend to generate a sub 5% unemployment rate by end 2019. Victorian female participation has trended below female participation in NSW, a very rare event. In that regard, while we would expect to see female participation rise in Victoria, we have to acknowledge that female participation could ease in NSW from its current record high level.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/15/westpac%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/westpac%205.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac IQ
Employment fell again in Qld (–3.2k following –11.9k in September) and unemployment rose 0.3ppts to 6.3. Meanwhile, the recovery in the other mining state, WA, continues with a 3.1k lift in employment (+3.3k in September) while the unemployment rate fell again by 0.3ppt to 5.7%. This is the first time WA unemployment has been below 6.0% since January 2018.
Overall, we emphasise the need to look through the monthly volatility in the Labour Force Survey and focus on the broader trends in the labour market. The pace of employment growth has eased back from the 4.3%yr peak in 2017 to 2.5%yr in October and the six month annualised pace is also 2.5%. Both seem about right compared to leading indicators if you take into account the employment overshoot through 2017/2018. As such, while we do expect participation to trend higher, the rising trend in female participation may have come to an end (for now) just as male participation has stabilised.
The October survey is a sound update and it increases the risk that the unemployment rate could end this year with a 4 handle.
Justin Smirk is senior economist at Westpac.
You can find the complete chart pack <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2018/November/Labour-FI_chart_packOct18.pdf" target="_blank">here</a>. 
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Employment stats show continuing robust trend: Westpac's Justin Smirk

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GUEST OBSERVATION<a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/griffith-university-828"></a>
That casualisation and self-employment rates are not increasing is often trotted out to dispute perceptions that workplace insecurity is growing.
But retorts like this miss a few key points.
First, the real causes of growing insecurity aren’t the type of contracts people are on. While these things matter, the real causes of insecurity are the way organisations are being structured these days. This is designed to minimise costs, transfer risk from corporations to employees, and centralise power away from employees.
Second, aggregate data mask variations between industries.
Third (and least importantly) there are some measurement issues.
Reducing cost and risk
Large corporations want to minimise their costs and risks, avoid accountability when things go wrong and ensure products have the features they want.
This partially explains the dramatic increase in franchised businesses – the franchisee bears responsibility for scandals such as underpaying workers.
Other corporations call in labour hire companies to take on responsibility for their workers. This cuts costs and transfers risk down the chain – which means jobs are more insecure.
Some set up spin-offs or subsidiaries. Some just outsource to contracting firms.
Most people working for franchises, spin-offs, subsidiaries and labour hire firms are still employees. It’s more efficient for capital to control workers through the employment relationship than to pay them piece rates as contractors. That would run the risk of worker desertion or of shortcuts affecting quality.
Is casualisation the same as insecurity?
Even employees at the bottom of the supply chain might get annual and sick leave. Offering leave helps attract labour and might be cheaper than paying casual loading.
And there’s no need to hire someone on a casual contract if you can make them redundant when the work dries up — if, for example, you lose your contract with the main parent firm. If your firm can go bankrupt, then you often won’t even have to pay redundancy benefits.
There are also the measurement issues. The Australian Bureau of Statistics counts the number of “employees without paid leave entitlements”. People take this to mean “casuals”. On this measure, the share of casuals in the workforce has shifted little in a decade, after growing substantially earlier.
If we take the liberty of labelling people without leave as “casuals”, then the number of “casual” full-timers grew by 38% between 2009 and 2017. Labour hire workers are usually casual full-time workers.
“Permanent” full-timers (those with annual leave) grew by just 10%.
On the other hand, some organisations have found relying on part-time casuals counterproductive, as workers had no commitment and became unreliable. Some large retailers now use “permanent” part-timers rather than casuals.
So-called “casual” part-timers grew by just 13% between 2009 and 2016. “Permanent” part-timers grew by 36%.
A lot of variation between industries and periods is hidden by aggregate figures. Franchising has grown in retailing. Labour hire in mining. Outsourcing in the public sector. Second jobs in manufacturing. Spin-offs in communications. Casualisation in education and training. Global supply chains send jobs overseas to low-paid, often dangerous workplaces in a number of industries.
The ABS doesn’t measure the precarity of work experienced by people who now work in franchises, spin-offs, subsidiaries or contractor firms. But as their continued employment depends on the fortunes of their direct employer, more than the firm at the top of the chain, precarity is real.
Underemployment has grown
Many “permanent” part-time jobs may be good jobs. But the continuing growth of part-time employment is linked to another form of insecurity – underemployment.
Between 2010-11 and 2016-17, the number of hours sought, but not worked, by underemployed people grew by 31%. This is five times the total growth in hours worked.
Large firms don’t even need to spin off workers to smaller business units to make use of underemployment.
There are other important sources of worker insecurity. In Australia, for example, firms can seek to have enterprise agreements terminated, or get a handful of workers to sign new agreements, to cut pay and conditions.
Some firms seek to put employees onto contrived arrangements that make them out to be contractors. Often that’s illegal.
The growing insecurity and hence low power of workers – even those with leave entitlements – helps explain why wage growth is stagnating.
Indeed, the successful “war on wages” may be the biggest sign of worker insecurity.
And what about the gig economy?
The gig economy, or more accurately the platform economy, is a big challenge to the employment relationship. This is because virtual platforms provide a new, cheap form of control that may replace the need for the employment relationship.
But there are still limits to the use of cost cutting and of platform control. The gig economy will grow, but it won’t overtake the employment relationship.
Gig work is one form of self-employment and we should remember that, overall, self-employment is not increasing. Self-employment declined between 2000 and 2014 in 26 countries for which data were available, and increased in only 11 (see chart below).
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229705/original/file-20180729-106521-3hokgi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Changes in self-employment, 2000-2014, various countries. OECD, Author provided
What’s more, even the relative importance of large firms in total employment is not decreasing. That’s probably because of another trend — the concentration of markets in the hands of those firms.
In short, large powerful firms are getting more powerful, but their directly employed workforces are not getting larger. The result is a lot of workers with insecure incomes and a lot of insecure small-business owners as well.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100668/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">This means insecurity gnaws away, even while the employment relationship remains the dominant mode for deploying labour, and employment with leave entitlements remains its main form.
David Peetz, Professor of Employment Relations, Centre for Work, Organisation and Wellbeing, Griffith University
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/self-employment-and-casual-work-arent-increasing-but-so-many-jobs-are-insecure-whats-going-on-100668" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Self-employment and casual work aren’t increasing but so many jobs are insecure – what’s going on?

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The recent boom in housing supply in Sydney is slowing rapidly due to excessive levies and planning changes.
The development industry is a major provider of jobs in New South Wales, providing 400,000 direct jobs as well as generating huge employment in supporting industries and services.
But a recent survey of Urban Taskforce members indicates that the number of pre-sales for apartments has slowed down and this could have major impacts on employment, particularly in Sydney.
While the property industry is a huge driver of jobs in NSW it is the residential sector that represents 70% of these jobs.
It is therefore critical to keep the supply of residential projects flowing at the levels the NSW Government has proposed.
With 325,000 new homes required over 20 years according to the Greater Sydney Commission that translates to over 37,000 new homes a year.
The peak in recent times has reached this figure but there is a worrying drop in approvals over recent months and there seems to be an even bigger drop in pre-sales of apartments.
There are a number of contributing factors to the slowing housing market.
These include confusion over possible affordable housing levies, the raising of the cap on Section 94 infrastructure levies, the increase in the stamp duty from 4 to 8% in NSW for foreign investors which has turned them away and the restrictive policies of banks in lending to purchasers and to developers.
The Urban Taskforce has produced a publication on the importance of jobs from the development industry to the NSW economy which demonstrates the extensive number of specialist jobs that are part of residential construction, including apprenticeships which provide valuable training and opportunities for young people.
We need to keep the economy performing strongly so that the jobs and the funds keep flowing to federal and state governments from GST and Stamp Duty taxes.
Chris Johnson heads the Urban Taskforce, a property development industry group, representing Australia’s most prominent property developers and equity financiers.
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cjohnson-8xfqfuuCSq

Sydney housing boom starting to slow - and jobs will take a hit: Chris Johnson

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Australia posted a 16k increase in employment in January 2018 which records the longest streak of job gains with a 16th consecutive positive print. The month’s increase was very close to the market and Westpac’s expectation for a 15k rise.
However, the composition of employment changes was quite stark with full-time employment down 49.8k and part-time employment up 65.9k. That comes after a strong 2017 for full-time employment growth and the annual growth rate is still an elevated 3.6%.
In the month, hours worked fell 1.4%. The annual rate of change moderated to +0.5% from +3.2% but the series is volatile and this month’s movements were largely due to base effects. If hours worked holds steady in February, the annual pace will lift to +2.1%.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/SimonImages/Labour1.jpg" alt="">
 
By state, Queensland posted the highest jobs growth, up 19.7k, maintaining solid momentum but January's lift was driven by gains in part-time employment. On the other hand, a soft month was recorded in NSW (-21.1k) and WA (-8.9k), both coming after some solid gains in December.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/SimonImages/Labour3.jpg" alt="">
 
Annually, jobs growth strength has been fairly broad-based across the states, with the mining states recovering and the south-east expanding. Yet, we will watch the pace of jobs growth in Victoria closely with total employment flattening out over recent months after a very strong run up.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/SimonImages/StatesTotal.jpg" alt="">
 
Annual employment growth held steady at a brisk pace of 3.3%. Our Westpac Jobs index is still at a high level but the change in the index has moderated in recent months. Our outlook for employment growth in 2018 is positive with a forecast 2.2% annual rate an above trend pace albeit slower than 2017’s very strong performance. 
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/SimonImages/Index.jpg" alt="">
Overall, while January’s update continues the run of positive employment numbers, key questions remain for the labour market.
Firstly, there is uncertainty on how the unemployment rate will change given our solid jobs growth forecast.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/SimonImages/LabourImage1.jpg" alt="">
In January, the unemployment rate fell slightly to 5.5% from 5.6% in December (revised up from 5.5%). This came with a decline in the participation rate to 65.6% from 65.7%.  Looking back over the past year, while the unemployment rate did fall from a peak of 5.9% in February 2017 to the current 5.5%, the drop was more muted than the gain in employment due to a rising participation rate. To examine how far the unemployment rate could continue to fall, we need to assess how far the participation rate could rise.
The first thing to note is that the uplift in the participation rate has been driven mainly by females joining, re-joining, or remaining for longer in the labour force. However it should be noted that this spike occurred alongside a rising male participation rate which had otherwise been in a downtrend. That compares to 2015’s spike in female participation, where the male participation rate held its level rather than increasing. This suggests that the most recent lift in participation rate has a cyclical aspect to it with stronger employment generally attracting more people to the labour force. In addition, subdued wages growth, high household debt and high house prices may be necessitating dual-income households. However, given the outsized gain in female’s participation there is also likely a structural gender dynamic occurring as well.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/SimonImages/GenderST.jpg" alt="">
Converging male and female participation rates have been a long-term trend due to the large social change in women joining the workforce. Yet, the rate of convergence had been flattening out as the generational shift filtered its way through the labour market over time. Between the periods of 2009 and 2014, the female participation rate had remained relatively unchanged at around 58-59%. Perhaps this means that in aggregate, the recent increase in female participation is due to structural reasons outside of the generational shift in behaviour. A look at the type of jobs created over the past year suggests a changing composition of employment may have been a significant factor.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/SimonImages/GenderLong.jpg" alt="">
 
The graphs below show the annual jobs increase in the year to November 2017 (lhs) across different economic sectors broken down by gender. It is ordered by the female share of employment in the individual sector (rhs) with the top graph showing the sectors with the highest proportion of female employees, and the bottom graph the lowest. 
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/SimonImages/Sector1.jpg" alt="">
 
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/SimonImages/Sector2.jpg" alt="">
 
The striking aspect about the top chart is that the four sectors with the largest proportion of female jobs (health care, education, accommodation &amp; food and retail trade) accounted for 242k of the total 387k jobs created over the year to November 2017 and 202k of those new employees in the sectors were female. That contrasts with the bottom chart where the only standout sector is the construction industry which has a very large male proportion and men accounted for 109k of the net 101k increase. This suggests that the rise in female participation is a reaction to strong employment growth in sectors that typically have a higher proportion of female employment. These service sectors have been key to the transitioning economy and therefore strength is likely to continue. On the other hand, the construction sector accounted for 109k of the total 178k annual increase in male jobs. While the level of homebuilding remains at a high level, supply-demand factors look more balanced and slowing house price growth should restrain housing investment. The uncertainty here is whether similar jobs with transferrable skills will be created in other sectors. Given the large transitional shift in the types of jobs created, we will likely see tightness in the labour market in some pockets before others. That leads onto the second question surrounding the unemployment rate in regards to where the NAIRU sits – the rate that we start to see wage pressures come through.
 
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/SimonImages/Labour4.jpg" alt="">
The RBA’s estimate of the NAIRU is around 5%. Yet, even though the unemployment rate has been approaching 5% over the past year, we are yet to see a reaction in wages. In a speech on Tuesday at the ABE Forecasting Conference, Assistant Governor Economic Ellis mentioned that “we are mindful that, as we approach that figure, there's a risk we find there is more room to come down before wage growth picks up in earnest”.
A possible reason for a lower NAIRU is that there is more slack in the labour market than that indicated by the unemployment rate alone. Indeed, the underemployment rate has held a high level with the last seasonally adjusted estimate at 8.3% in November. <img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/SimonImages/VolumeUnder.jpg" alt="">
 
It is difficult to draw a conclusion on what a high underemployment rate means for overall slack in the labour market. The ABS provides quarterly non-seasonally adjusted data on volume measures of unemployment and underemployment based on the hours of available labour. The data is consistent with the previous headcount measures in terms of directional movement. In terms of quantity, as at November, it shows underemployment at 3.1% and therefore a sizable proportion of the combined 7.2% of underutilised hours. But the readiness of the underemployed pool of labour to be drawn upon is uncertain given that it may require changing jobs rather than going from not employed to employed.
As such, finding the level of NAIRU may only be possible in hindsight - after we start to see wage pressures emerge. With that in mind, next Wednesday’s Wage Price Index data is all the more critical.
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

January employment increase makes new Australia record

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/82207/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Workers aren’t being compensated as much as they should be for precarious work in casual positions. 
One in four Australian employees today is a casual worker. Among younger workers (15-24 year olds) the numbers are higher still: more than half of them are casuals.
These jobs come without some of the benefits of permanent employment, such as paid annual holiday leave and sick leave. In exchange for giving up these entitlements, casual workers are supposed to receive a higher hourly rate of pay – known as a casual “loading”. 
But the costs of casual work are now outweighing the benefits in wages.
Costs and benefits of casual work
Casual jobs offer flexibility, but also come with costs. For workers, apart from missing out on paid leave, there are other compromises: less predictable working hours and earnings, and the prospect of dismissal without notice. Uncertainty about their future employment can hinder casual workers in other ways, such as making family arrangements, getting a mortgage, and juggling education with work. 
Not surprisingly, casual workers have lower expectations about keeping their current job. For example the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) found 19% expect to leave their job within 12 months, compared to 7% of other workers. Casuals are also much less likely to get work-related training, which limits their opportunities for skills development.
The employers of casual workers also face higher costs. High staff turnover adds to recruitment costs. But perhaps the main cost is the “loading” that casual workers are supposed to be paid on top of their ordinary hourly wage. 
Australia’s system of minimum wage awards specifies a casual loading of 25%. So, a casual worker paid under an award should get 25% more for each hour than another worker doing the same job on a permanent basis. In enterprise agreements, the casual loading varies by sector, but tends to be between 15 and 25%.
The practice of paying a casual loading developed for two reasons. One was to provide some compensation for workers missing out on paid leave. The other, quite different, motivation was to make casual employment more expensive and discourage excessive use of it. However this disincentive has not prevented the casual sector of the workforce from growing substantially.
Casual jobs aren’t much better paid
One approach in determining whether casual workers are paid more is simply to compare the hourly wages of casual and “non-casual” (permanent and fixed-term) employees in the same occupations. This can be done using data from the 2016 ABS Survey of Employee Earnings and Hours. 
We compared median hourly wages for adult non-managerial employees, based on their ordinary earnings and hours of work (i.e. excluding overtime payments). If the median wage for casuals is higher than for non-casuals, there is a casual premium. If the median casual wage is lower, there is a penalty.
The 10 occupations below accounted for over half of all adult casual workers in 2016. In most of these occupations, there is a modest casual wage premium - in the order of 4-5%.
The size of the typical casual wage premium is much smaller, in most cases, than the loadings written into awards and agreements. Only one occupation (school teachers) has a premium (22%) in line with what might be expected.
Three of the 10 largest casual occupations actually penalise this sort of work. And overall for these 10 occupations there is a casual wage penalty of 5%. This method of analysis suggests that few casual workers enjoy substantially higher wages as a trade-off for paid leave.
Taking a closer look involves controlling for a wider range of differences between casual and non-casual workers. One major Australian study in 2005 compared wages after taking account of many factors other than occupation, including age, education, job location, and employer size. 
All else equal, it found that part-time, casual workers do receive an hourly wage premium over full-time, permanent workers. The premium is worth around 10%, on average, for men and between 4 and 7% for women.
These results imply that most casual workers (who are in part-time positions) can expect to receive higher hourly wages than comparable employees in full-time, permanent positions. However, the value of the benefit is again found to be less than would be expected, given the larger casual loadings mentioned in awards and agreements. 
It seems that while there is some short-term financial benefit to being a casual worker, this advantage is worth less in practice than on paper.
A recent study, using 14 years of data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey (HILDA), finds no evidence of any long-term pay benefit for casual workers. 
The study’s authors estimate that, among men, there is an average casual wage penalty of 10% - the opposite of what we should see if casual loadings fully offset the foregone leave and insecurity of casual jobs. Among female casual workers, there is also a wage penalty, but this is smaller, at around 4%. 
This study also finds that the size of the negative casual wage effect tends to reduce over time for individual workers, bringing them closer to equality with permanent workers. But very few casual workers out-earn permanent workers in the long-term.
Inferior jobs, but fewer alternatives
The evidence on hourly wage differences leads us to conclude that casual workers are not being adequately compensated for the lack of paid leave, or for other forms of insecurity they face. This makes casual jobs a less appealing option for workers.
This does not mean that all casual workers dislike their jobs – indeed, many are satisfied. But a clear-eyed look at what these jobs pay suggests their benefits are skewed in favour of employers.
Despite this, the choice for many workers - especially young jobseekers - is increasingly between a casual job or no job at all. Half of employed 15-24 year olds are in casual jobs. 
In a labour market characterised by high underemployment and intensifying job competition, young people with little or no work experience are understandably willing to make some sacrifices to get a start in the workforce. The option of “holding out” for a permanent job looks increasingly risky as these opportunities dwindle.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/joshua-healy-104950" target="_blank">Joshua Healy </a>is Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Workplace Leadership, University of Melbourne.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/daniel-nicholson-315854" target="_blank">Daniel Nicholson</a> is Research Assistant, Industrial Relations, University of Melbourne.
Both are authors for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

The costs of a casual job are now outweighing any pay benefits

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GUEST OBSERVER
There has been a marked improvement in the Australian labour market with a lift to total employment, of which the largest share has been full-time, and a drop in the unemployment rate.
Despite a clear tightening in labour market conditions we are yet to see a lift in wage inflation.
Firms do not appear to be under pressure to lift wages to attract staff while rising underemployment and relatively high unemployment expectations suggest household are not confident enough to bargain for stronger wage rises.
Since 2015 wages have underperformed the historical relationship but this underperformance is less clear in Victoria. The relationship is still broadly holding in SA.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-14%20at%208.34.44%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/07/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-14%20at%208.34.44%20AM.png" alt="">
It is not yet clear if we have seen a shift in the curve or a breakdown in relationship. Regardless, we expect any lift in wage inflation to be modest and gradual. 
A meaningful improvement in the labour market conditions.
The Australian labour market went through a soft patch from August to November in 2016 when the average gain in employment was a paltry 2.2k per month. So far in 2017 there has been a distinct uplift in employment. In the three months to May, total employment gained 141.1k, or an average of 47k per month, lifting the annual pace from 0.9%yr to 2.0%yr. Employment growth is now more in line with our preferred leading indicators, the various business survey’s and household demand.
Taking the Labour Force data at face value, you could argue there has been a material tightening in labour market conditions. The quarterly unemployment rate peaked at 6.2% in 2015 Q3 then fell steadily to average 5.7% for the three months to May 2017, pointing to a material tightening. And it is not just unemployment that is pointing to an improvement.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-14%20at%208.35.53%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/07/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-14%20at%208.35.53%20AM.png" alt="">
We have also seen a recovery in full-time employment. Through 2016, full-time employment fell 35k as part-time employment rose 127k. In 2016, all of the growth in total employment came from the significant lift in part-time employment. In the year to May 2017, full-time employment rose 148k for a 1.8%yr pace, so full-time employment growth is now exceeding growth in the working age population, the first time it has done so since February 2016.
And yet wages continue to languish at record lows.
Normally when you observe a tightening in the labour market, you would expect to see an increase in wage inflation. But we have not seen this with wage inflation, as measured by the Wage Price Index (WPI), holding at a historical low of 1.9%yr. One measure of tightness is to compare the unemployment rate to the rate unemployment would be if the economy was at full employment.
The RBA estimates a NAIRU, or Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment, to be currently around 5.0%. So while there is still a gap, the unemployment rate has moved closer to the NAIRU representing a tightening of the labour market.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-14%20at%208.37.22%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/07/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-14%20at%208.37.22%20AM.png" alt="">
Westpac uses a labour gap which is the difference between unemployment and trend unemployment. Historically the labour gap had a two quarter lead to wage inflation. In the year to the June quarter, the labour gap averaged +3ppts; the last time it was this positive was back in September 2012 when wage inflation (as measured by the Wage Price Index) was running at a 33⁄4%yr pace. Wage inflation printed 1.9%yr in the March quarter of 2017.
Employers do not feel under pressure to bid up wages.
Another measure of slack is the “is labour easy or hard to find” question from the Westpac/Australian Chamber business survey. However, whereas from early 2016 the labour gap was pointing to a tighter labour market conditions, this index suggested labour was still relatively easy to find. While it may have become bit harder since, it is still consistent with a neutral response (neither easy nor hard to find) and as such it does not appear that employers are under any pressure to bid up wages.
Underemployment has lifted as job insecurity holds a relatively high level.
Could employees’ employment insecurity have a role to play? Since late 2014, unemployment expectations from the Consumer Sentiment survey has been relatively weaker than its historical relationship with unemployment so maybe workers aren’t confident enough to bid up wages.
There does appear to be some basis for this relatively high level of job insecurity. The ABS has an alternative labour market measure known as underemployment, which is the share of labour that while employed are willing and able to work more hours. From 2015 H2, while the underemployment rate fell from a peak of 6.1% to 5.5%, the underemployment rate rose from 8.3% to 8.8%, with an 8.9% peak in early 2017.
The RBA noted in the February Statement on Monetary Policy that since the 1980’s, the upward drift in underemployment can be explained by the rising share of part-time employment. It also noted that “underemployment rates are higher among groups that have a higher share of part-time employment, such as females, younger workers and older workers”, so as their share of employment rises so too does underemployment.
We would, however, counter with two observations.
Firstly, in the year to May, full-time employment growth accelerated while part-time employment eased, yet underemployment lifted from 8.4% to 8.8% suggesting a genuine broadening in underemployment rather than a compositional shift.
Secondly, combining unemployment and underemployment generates underutilisation, the broadest measure of labour market slack. We have found that this measure has a better relationship with wage inflation than either unemployment or underemployment by themselves. But this still leaves the observation that, since 2015 there has been an underperformance of wage outcomes to underutilisation.
State data reveals some interesting divergences from the national average.
How long can we divert from this historical relationship? To answer we turn to the state labour markets. In NSW the unemployment rate in May was just 4.8%, well below the national average and below the RBA’s estimate of the NAIRU. From the end of 2015, NSW’s unemployment fell from 5.3% to 5.1% (March quarter average) and yet underemployment lifted from 7.5% to 8.0% boosting underutilisation from 12.8% to 13.1%. However, even this softening in underutilisation does not explain the on-going weakness in private sector wage inflation, which printed just 2.0%yr in the March quarter. If wage inflation held the historical relationship with underutilisation, it would just under 3.0%yr.
We should also note that NSW also has the lowest participation and employment to population ratio for any mainland state outside of SA. These factors put into perspective the fact that NSW low unemployment is not a strong indicator of the overall tightness of a labour market.
Compare this with Victoria, where wages have kept something of a tighter relationship with underutilisation. At 15%, underutilisation suggests wage inflation should be running at just under 21⁄2%yr. The state’s WPI printed 1.9% in March which is a smaller wedge to underutilisation than in NSW. Victoria also has a higher rate of unemployment than NSW (6.1% vs. 4.7%) and underemployment (8.6% vs. 8.0%) but that does not necessarily mean Victoria has a weaker labour market.
Total employment has grown just under 4%yr pace in Victoria while in NSW it has grown less than 1%yr. The higher rate of underemployment and unemployment in Victoria reflects that states faster rate of population growth combined with a higher rate of participation (for both males and females). Victoria is also the only state where you can observe a trend rise in male participation since 2014. Other states may show something of a levelling out, or a recovery, since late 2016 but all declining male participation preceding. It has also recently seen the largest jump in female participation for any state.
In Qld, wages are below the curve with an underutilisation rate around 14% pointing to wages growth of at least 3.0%yr. Wages in that state are currently growing at 1.8%yr, a significant wedge to historical outcomes. Male participation has started to lift again in Qld so even if we do see the underutilisation/wage relationship return to the curve, will it be driven by rising wages or rising underutilisation due to rising participation?
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-14%20at%208.38.30%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/07/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-14%20at%208.38.30%20AM.png" alt="">
WA is interesting in that while wage outcomes since 2015 are clearly below the longer run relationship with underutilisation, the shape of the relationship still holds - that is it appears that the curve has shifted downwards since 2015. This suggests that while the historical underutilisation/wage relationship would put wages growth around 2%yr (for a 15% underutilisation rate) actual wages growth of just under 1% appears to be holding a shorter term relationship since 2015.
Of all the states SA is holding the tightest long-term relationship for underutilisation/wages. An underutilisation rate of around 17% would normally see wages grow at 21⁄2%yr; the WPI rose 2.0% in the year to the March quarter. We have been watching the relative out performance of wages in SA despite the relatively high rates of unemployment (and underemployment) and wonder if this reflects the relatively more significant contribution manufacturing makes to that state's economic activity compared to the other states.
It is not clear if curve is shifting or breaking down.
The significant underperformance of NSW wage inflation does raise questions not just on the specification of a NAIRU but whether the NAIRU is still a useful concept. It is possible that the breakdown in the NAIRU is due, at least in part, to the Australian economy’s shift away from goods production to services provision, which is more dominate in NSW than it is in Vic and SA, and as such the breakdown may be temporary.
The downward shift in the WA curve suggests this may be the case as that state has seen it economy experience a rapid and significant shift away from the resources sector. But the significantly different participation rates between the states may also point to something more structural. As such, to assume that a falling unemployment rate will drive an uptick in wages may lead to an overstatement of the outlook for wages, household income growth and thus inflation and consumption. Currently Westpac is taking a cautious view that while wage inflation may have found a base, any uptick will be modest and gradual. 
Justin Smirk is ‎senior economist, Westpac Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/westpac-group/">here</a>.
 
 
 
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Australian wages underperforming current labour market conditions: Justin Smirk

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GUEST OBSERVER
Australian employment rose by a stronger than expected 37,400 in April taking annual jobs growth back up to 1.6 percent. Coming on the back of a 60,000 gain in March this is much better than expected.
Full time jobs declined by 11,600 so the quality of jobs growth was poor but this followed two strong months of full time jobs growth.
Unemployment fell to 5.7 percent as the participation rate was unchanged and remains in the same range it’s been in for 18 months.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/18/unemployment.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/18/unemployment.png" alt=""> The strength in jobs growth is to be welcomed and suggests that jobs growth is heading back towards the solid pace indicated by forward looking jobs indicators (like job ads, vacancies and hiring intentions from the NAB survey).
As combined in our Jobs Leading Indicator these forward looking indicators continue to point to strong jobs growth ahead (although it has been overstating jobs growth a lot lately).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/18/unemployment%202.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/18/unemployment%202.png" alt=""> Implications
April’s jobs data is consistent with Reserve Bank expectations and so on its own is consistent with interest rates remaining on hold.
The risk though is that weakness in retail sales (on the back of subdued consumer confidence and weak wages growth) and weaker growth in housing construction will start to impact employment growth down the track.
Fortunately, forward looking jobs indicators are continuing to hold up at present suggesting reasonable jobs growth ahead.
Shane Oliver is AMP Capital's Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist. You can follow him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/shaneoliveramp" target="_blank">here</a>.
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