A landmark former orphanage site in Surrey Hills could be transformed into a new residential community under plans lodged by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/antipodean-land-developments">Antipodean Land Developments</a> that would deliver 76 apartments and townhouses while restoring some of the suburb's most significant heritage buildings.

The burgeoninng Melbourne-based developer has submitted plans for the 9,158 sqm site at 1 Kent Road and 24 Durham Road, home to the former St Joseph's Home for Destitute Children, a historic institutional complex dating back to the late 19th century. The proposal seeks to adaptively reuse several heritage buildings while introducing two new four-storey residential buildings set within extensive landscaped grounds.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> and Kerstin Thompson Architects, the project has been conceived as a contemporary residential village embedded within a restored heritage precinct. The development team describes the design approach as "The Village in the Garden," with new buildings positioned among mature landscaping by OCULUS and significant heritage structures.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="44ec8c1b-c0b6-44ae-859e-5811b3e6a023" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%281%29.png?VersionId=p.p1_KFh4iQoV4nisdnPfQBAsWNi7m79" />

The proposal would deliver 76 dwellings comprising a mix of apartments and duplex-style residences, significantly increasing housing supply on one of the largest privately held residential landholdings in Surrey Hills. The development includes 127 car spaces, 24 bicycle spaces and more than 1,000 sqm of communal amenity, with the existing chapel building earmarked for conversion into resident facilities.

According to the planning submission, the project centres on the restoration and adaptive reuse of the site's most significant heritage assets, including the original c.1889 St Joseph's building, the chapel designed by architect Augustus Andrew Fritsch, and the historic brick perimeter walls and entry gates. The proposal also incorporates the retention of other contributory buildings including the former infirmary and school building.

Tract Consultants, in the planning report accompanying the application, said the scheme had been shaped through extensive heritage analysis and design development.

"The shared vision for the Site by the project team has culminated in a scheme which successfully breathes life back into a historic site while delivering upon the objectives of Victoria's Housing Statement in a carefully curated and contextually responsive manner."

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7263b7d8-95ea-400f-9531-6ca7d22c3c33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%282%29.png?VersionId=4cR1tiWOsDpgxEOwZi5vVFcyvvOsYkIE" />

The proposal is being assessed under Victoria's Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway. As part of the application, three per cent of the project's residential development cost would be contributed to the Social Housing Growth Fund. The development would also provide a diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom residences targeting a broader range of buyers than typically found in Surrey Hills' detached housing market.

Sustainability initiatives include an anticipated 66 per cent BESS score, natural cross-ventilation to 80 per cent of apartments, 28 per cent deep soil landscaping and a canopy cover outcome exceeding local planning requirements. The proposal also sets aside more than 1,083 sqm for communal indoor and outdoor resident amenity spaces.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="33fad46f-fe26-4d0a-acfd-6b776e1c6a3d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design.png?VersionId=D9F6WVSyYCtGvSUmith35LRp6R7PQkw_" />

Planning documents describe the property as one of the largest underutilised residential sites in Surrey Hills, arguing it presents a rare opportunity to introduce "missing middle" housing in an established inner-eastern suburb while preserving and revitalising a significant heritage precinct.

Antipodean Land Developments has built a reputation for design-focused residential projects across Melbourne, particularly in the medium-density sector. Previous developments include Neighbourhood in Brunswick East, delivered with Breathe Architecture, and Balfe Park Lane, designed by Kerstin Thompson Architects.

They've been very active in site acquisition as they build out their future development pipeline. They recently launched Thornubury House, 45 apartments above a mix of commercial, retail, and food and beverage tenancies, and have plans for a boutique project in Fitzroy and another <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/antipodean-plan-apartments-for-deepdenes-missing-middle-on-whitehorse-road">"missing middle" project</a> on Deepdene's Whitehorse Road.

Joel Robinson

First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills

Developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/auyin-property-development">Auyin</a> is the latest to turn to the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program in an effort to secure approval for its long-planned, mixed-use project in Elsternwick.

In 2018, Auyin lodged plans with Glen Eira City Council for a 14-storey building, however Council approved a reduced eight-storey scheme. A subsequent VCAT appeal in 2019 upheld the eight-storey height limit.

The project was later amended to nine storeys, but Auyin is now seeking to revive something closer to its original vision. The developer argues that the planning context has evolved significantly over the past decade, particularly within the Elsternwick Activity Centre, where higher-density development has increasingly been encouraged along Glen Huntly Road.

The proposal would transform the 1,239 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/7-12-horne-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">7-15 Horne Street</a>, opposite Elsternwick Railway Station, into a 13-storey residential and retail development designed by CBG Architects, with 40 apartments

The site currently comprises three commercial properties.

<img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5f465dd4-509b-4082-a669-0253b313914b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20podium.png?VersionId=72frWi0SmQ5AVJ3ARRhX5ILUYObhTm7x" />

The proposed apartment mix comprises 25 two-bedroom and 15 three-bedroom residences above 200 sqm of retail space at ground level. Residents would have access to a 90 sqm wellness facility, a 351 sqm communal indoor and outdoor terrace on the third level, and extensive landscaped areas throughout the development. A publicly accessible 135 sqm plaza would be created on the north-east corner of the site, providing seating, landscaping, and a new gathering space adjoining Horne Street.

The design adopts a four-storey podium that references the finer-grain character of the surrounding streetscape, with the upper tower recessed behind generous setbacks on all boundaries.

<img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e637e763-2abc-4c34-a0aa-5c7ad36fae18" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20open.png?VersionId=J1AoOpZgTyaF.KeeFSX6lMjEScX8KKRi" />

A key element of the proposal is the reconfiguration and widening of the surrounding laneways. Vehicle access would be retained from Lois Lane, with upgraded pedestrian connections linking Ross Street and Horne Street. The development would provide 58 residential car spaces, two retail car spaces, and 52 bicycle spaces across two basement levels and ground-floor facilities.

Architecturally, the building draws inspiration from the established character of Elsternwick Village. The façade combines dark charcoal brickwork, textured concrete, bronze-toned metal detailing, and extensive planting integrated into podium and tower levels. The design also incorporates a chamfered corner treatment and publicly accessible plaza intended to strengthen pedestrian activity around the station precinct.

Elsternwick's last new development completion was&nbsp;EVA Elsternwick by Pitard late last year. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/milieu-property">Milieu</a> is working away on its nature-led neighbourhood, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/elsternwick-gardens-by-milieu-8-gordon-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">Elsternwick Gardens</a>, on Gordon Street, with its first stage expected to complete next year.

First look: Auyin seeks mixed-use apartment project in growing Elsternwick Activity Centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/otium-parkdale-123-125-como-parade-east-parkdale-vic-3195">Otium Parkdale</a>, the 13-residence boutique development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/huxtable-property">Huxtable Property</a>, has entered its final stages of delivery, with completion expected within the coming month and more than half of the residences sold.

The Como Parade East project is nearing the finish line at a time when opportunities to purchase new apartments in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parkdale-vic-3195">Parkdale</a> remain exceptionally limited. Fewer than 10 per cent of dwellings in the bayside suburb are apartments, making developments like Otium a relatively rare addition to a market traditionally dominated by detached housing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5427]

The three-level development comprises 13 residences, including ten two-bedroom apartments and three larger three-bedroom homes, all positioned above a secure basement car park.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/almeida-architects">Almeida Architects</a> with a strong connection to its coastal surroundings, Otium combines red brick, exposed concrete and dark metal detailing with integrated landscaping and greenery. Expansive glazing, generous balconies and terraces have been incorporated throughout the design to maximise natural light and reinforce indoor-outdoor living.

Inside, the residences feature engineered European oak flooring, natural and reconstituted stone benchtops, Bosch kitchen appliances, ducted heating and cooling, lift access and secure entry systems. The larger three-bedroom residences on the upper level have been designed with house-like proportions, while the two-bedroom apartments prioritise functionality, flexibility and low-maintenance living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5421]

The project is now in its final stages, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/labco">Labco</a> completing the remaining landscaping and external finishing works following the completion of the residences' interiors.

Otium's location within the heart of Parkdale continues to underpin its appeal. Residents will be just steps from local cafés, restaurants, shops and the newly elevated Parkdale Station, while the beach is less than a kilometre away.

With the project tracking ahead of schedule, buyers can currently secure a residence with a five per cent deposit and benefit from settlement terms of up to eight months. The advanced stage of construction also provides buyers with the opportunity to walk through the near-complete residences and experience the quality and finishes firsthand ahead of completion.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134974]

Otium Parkdale enters final month before completion as rare apartment opportunity nears sellout

A new boutique apartment development is entering the market in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chermside-qld-4032">Chermside</a>, with Brisbane-based developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ausdev">Ausdev</a> bringing 33 residences to a well-connected pocket of Brisbane's north.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/parkdrive-apartments-chermside-25-sammells-drive-chermside-qld-4032">Parkdrive Apartments</a>, at 25 Sammells Drive, will comprise a mix of one- and two-bedroom residences positioned within walking distance of Westfield Chermside, The Prince Charles Hospital, and Bradbury Park.

Established in 1989, Ausdev has a long-standing presence across both development and construction, with Parkdrive Apartments representing its latest residential project in Brisbane's northern suburbs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363778]

The development has been designed around open-plan living and natural light, with residences featuring stone benchtops, timber cabinetry, BOSCH appliances, and private balconies that extend the living areas outdoors.

Kitchens are positioned as the centrepiece of the homes, incorporating natural material palettes and integrated appliances, while bathrooms have been designed with a focus on functionality and understated finishes.

Residents will have access to a communal barbecue and entertaining area on Level 3, providing shared outdoor space within the development. Secure parking and lift access are also incorporated into the building.

The project will deliver a limited collection of 33 apartments, with one-bedroom residences priced from $749,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363782]

Beyond the building itself, the location places residents within easy reach of several of Chermside's key amenities. Bradbury Park is around 350 metres away, while Westfield Chermside is approximately 1.3 kilometres from the site. The Prince Charles Hospital is located within 750 metres, and the Chermside Bus Interchange is around 1.5 kilometres away, providing connections across Brisbane.

Parkdrive Apartments adds to the growing residential pipeline in Chermside, a suburb that continues to evolve as a major retail, healthcare, and transport hub for Brisbane's north.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152125]

Ausdev introduces boutique Parkdrive Apartments to Chermside's growing centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/skymark-group">Skymark</a>'s boutique Cronulla development Solis has secured a 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy through Resilience Insurance, providing buyers of the 16-residence building on Ewos Parade with structural and waterproofing protection that extends a decade beyond the building's completion.

Currently under construction and due for completion in late 2027, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/solis-cronulla-8-ewos-parade-cronulla-nsw-2230">Solis</a> is one of a small number of new developments in the Sutherland Shire to carry Resilience LDI coverage, a distinction that carries increasing weight as buyer confidence in the off-the-plan sector continues to be shaped by how developers stand behind their product.

Latent Defects Insurance, which entered the Australian market in 2022 when Resilience Insurance was approved to offer the cover, protects buyers against major structural or waterproofing defects for ten years post-completion. Unlike traditional statutory warranties, it operates as a first-resort policy, if a covered defect arises, the insurer responds directly, without the buyer needing to pursue the builder or developer through a lengthy claims process.

Resilience Insurance CEO Corey Nugent has noted that the product addresses something fundamental to the new apartment market.

"The overarching feedback from prospective buyers in the new development space is that they want more confidence and assurances around the quality of the build," Nugent says.

"Resilience Insurance Latent Defects Insurance not only gives them complete peace of mind for 10 years, but it shows the developer they are buying from is standing by their product."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370898]

For Solis, the Resilience LDI policy adds a meaningful layer of accountability to an already considered project. The development comprises nine two-bedroom and seven three-bedroom residences, including one dual-level three-bedroom apartment, across a five-storey building on Ewos Parade, positioned between Shelly Beach and South Cronulla.

Garden apartments connect directly to private landscaped courtyards, while upper-level homes capture beach views to the east from level four and above.&nbsp;

All 16 residences include at least one balcony or courtyard, and select apartments on the upper floors feature bar areas and secondary flexible living spaces.

Hiba Sander, Managing Director of Skymark, says Solis offers a rare balance, nestled between the quiet beauty of secluded beaches and the lively charm of South Cronulla's esplanade.

"It's a place to choose your pace and live gracefully, seaside'," Sander says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370900]

The architecture, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ida-design-group">IDA Design Group</a>'s Michael Trinh, draws from the natural erosion patterns of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/cronulla-nsw-2230">Cronulla</a>'s sandstone headlands, translating the organic forms of the coastline into soft curves, pavilion-style massing, and a material palette chosen for longevity in a salt-tinged environment.&nbsp;

Textured natural stone, soft renders, and timber-look battens reference the tones of the surrounding cliffs, while the building has been oriented to maximise natural light and passive ventilation, with primary living spaces facing north and east to capture morning sun and sea breezes.

"At Solis, our aim was to create architecture that feels quietly confident, grounded in natural materials like stone and timber, and elevated by light and landscape," Trinh says.&nbsp;

"The buildings are designed to sit gently within their coastal surrounds, with expansive glazing and abundant greenery creating a seamless dialogue between inside and out."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370897]

Interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hot-black">Hot Black</a> carry the same material language through to every room. Kitchens feature integrated Gaggenau appliances, sculpted stone benchtops, and Lo &amp; Co joinery, while bathrooms feature natural stone, timber, and brushed metal finishes.&nbsp;

Hot Black Founder and Design Director Sophie Safrin describes the intent as one of considered restraint: "At Solis, every detail has been thoughtfully considered to create a timeless coastal retreat, calm, refined, and effortlessly liveable. From natural finishes to seamless indoor-outdoor flow, Solis offers a quiet elegance that's deeply connected to its surroundings.

The landscape, designed by Julian Brady of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/sitedesignstudios">Site Design Studios</a>, treats green space as an integral part of the resident experience rather than an afterthought.&nbsp;

"Gentle curves and layered native plantings mirror the ebb and flow of the ocean," Julian Brady says, "creating a serene connection between architecture and place."&nbsp;

Coco Republic has provided bespoke furniture packages tailored to the project's coastal palette.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370899]

Skymark has an established track record in the Sutherland Shire, with a portfolio spanning Cronulla, Woolooware and Burraneer that includes Isla, Sylva, Bask, Shells, Sula and Mist. Securing LDI on Solis reflects a broader shift in how the developer is positioning its buildings to buyers, at a time when Resilience Insurance expects the policy to become mandatory in New South Wales by 2028.

Sales at Solis are launching soon through Ray White Projects, with an official event scheduled for 11 June. Enquire for more information.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150499]

Skymark takes out 10-year Resilience Insurance LDI at Solis Cronulla

Employment

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EXPERT OBSERVER
<div>
<div>Economists had expected employment to fall by 30,000 in October as Victoria's lockdown persisted.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Instead we got a rollicking increase of 178,800 or 1.4 per cent, most of which were full-time jobs.</div>
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<div> </div>
<div>There was a big leap in participation to 65.8 per cent (a huge beat - economist forecasts were for a flat result here), which is now returning close to record highs and only 0.1 pts lower than a year earlier.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite the leap in participation, the unemployment rate has nestled in at 7 per cent, which is far, far better than previously feared. </div>
<div> </div>
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<div> </div>
<div>How did economists land so far away from the target?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's hard to say for sure, but the huge rebound in Victorian employment in the month - despite the lockdown persisting through October - was an interesting and totally unexpected result. </div>
 
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<div> </div>
<div>Queensland has added back a stunning 206,000 jobs in only 5 months, to see total employment actually higher than a year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But despite ostensibly adding 82,000 jobs in October, total employment in Victoria is still 124,000 lower than a year earlier.</div>
<div> </div>
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<div> </div>
<div>The wrap</div>
<div> </div>
<div>To date 648,000 of the 875,000 jobs lost have been recovered across only five months, so we are already 74 per cent of the way back to employment topping new highs at above 13 million.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, this was a great result, which introduces the exciting possibility of a strong snap-back in the Aussie economy in 2021. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lest anyone becomes too excited at this early stage in the recovery, measures of underemployment remain understandably high, and monthly hours worked were still 3.4 per cent lower than a year earlier (largely due to a huge year-on-year decline in Victoria). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In October the underemployment rate by 1.0 pts to 10.4 per cent, but that's still 1.9 pts higher than a year ago.</div>
</div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger 
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Employment soared higher in October: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
It is fair to say that the 111k or 0.9% rise in employment was a big surprise. The market had been looking for –35k while Westpac was forecasting –50k.
We had based our forecast on the observation of a –1.0% fall in Weekly Payrolls in the first two weeks of August compared to the first two weeks in July (the Labour Force Survey is conducted in the first two weeks of each month).
Even when you take seasonality into account the 0.4% rise in employment in original terms was still much stronger than the –1.0% decline reported by Payrolls.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sep_Oct_2020/LFAugPayrolls.JPG" alt="">
'Gig' workers driving recovery in employment.
In the August Labour Force Survey the ABS provided a reconciliation on the difference between the two series highlighting that Weekly Payrolls measure 'employee jobs' for which a payment was reported to the Australian Taxation Office through Single Touch Payroll. This includes jobs held by employees and owner managers of incorporated enterprises (the latter of whom can be paid through the payroll of their business). However, owner managers of unincorporated enterprises are not covered by Weekly Payrolls. There is also lower coverage of small businesses (&lt;20 employees) in the Payrolls data compared to large and medium businesses. As such, any change to the employment status of owner managers of incorporated enterprises without employees is less likely to be reflected in Weekly Payrolls than that with employees.
In the Labour Force Survey employed are categorised according to their 'Status of Employment' reflecting the nature of the employer-employee relationship. The categories are:
<ul>
<li>Employee – someone who works for an employer;</li>
<li>Owner manager of an incorporated enterprise – self-employed who owns and operates their own incorporated business;</li>
<li>Owner manager of an unincorporated enterprise – self-employed operating a business as a sole trader; or a,</li>
<li>Contributing family worker.</li>
</ul>
Owner managers (ie. self-employed) may or may not have employees.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sep_Oct_2020/LFAugStatus.JPG" alt="">
In original terms, the Labour Force Survey reported a 44.5k/0.4% increase in employment in August. In the release the ABS noted that the increase in original employment was due to a 50.2k increase in owner managers (self-employed mostly unincorporated sole traders) without employees. This is likely to be dominated by 'gig workers' which can be defined by anyone who is engaged as a contractor rather than an employee. This includes far more people than just those who work as the large aggregation platforms such as Uber, GoCatch, Deliveroo, Airtasker, Freelacer etc. In contrast, there was a small 2.6k lift in the number of employees which was more than offset by a –9.3k decrease in the number of contributing family workers.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sep_Oct_2020/LFAugGIG.JPG" alt="">
Excluding 'gig workers' employment was still stronger than the Payrolls measure of jobs.
If we exclude the 50.2k rise in self-employed, total employment would have fallen –5.7k which is closer to, but still stronger than, the –1.0% fall in Payrolls. Unfortunately, the data underpinning this analysis won’t be released until Thursday so we can only note the ABS comments at this stage and add that to the data we do have.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sep_Oct_2020/LFpayemp.JPG" alt="">
Seasonality matters in August with employees contracting an average of -66.5k in last five years.
From the Labour Force Survey we know that August is a soft month for employment with the ABS seasonal factor falling -0.5% in the month. What we did not realise is that that seasonality is different for employees and owners/self-employed. On average through the last five years the number of employees fell -66.5k in August while the number of self-employed lifted 24.1k. That is to say it was not the strength of owners/self-employed that was surprising in the August survey but rather the lack of weakness in employees (+2.6k in the month compared to the average of -66.5k).
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sep_Oct_2020/LFAugseason.JPG" alt="">
We can't exactly replicate the ABS season adjustment process but using eX12 we estimate that seasonally adjusted employees gained 78.8k in the month while the self-employed lifted 18.7k. The real story in August was not the surprising strength in the self-employed, at least half of which was a seasonal norm, but rather the lack of weakness in employees which would have significantly boosted the overall seasonally adjusted total.
Shutdown in Vic hit that state but the NSW recovery continued on regardless.
The shutdown in Victoria did hit the labour market in that state with employment falling –42.4k and unemployment lifting 0.3pt to 7.1%. Victorian employment is now just 9.5k/0.3% higher than the May low post the first round of shutdowns. The recovery in Victoria peaked at +51.9k/+1.6% from May to July.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sep_Oct_2020/LFAugStateEmp.JPG" alt="">
The recent Weekly Payrolls data suggested the NSW recovery was running out of steam through July and into August but this did not show up in the Labour Force Survey. In August, NSW employment lifted 51.5k following on from a 56.2k gain in July and +80.3k in June. In the month, the unemployment rate fell 0.5ppt to 6.7%. The NSW labour market continued to power on in August even if the Victorian lockdown was clouding the economic environment.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sep_Oct_2020/LFAugStateUnemp.JPG" alt="">
The smaller states continue a robust recovery.
Elsewhere, employment rose 18k in Qld, 32.2k in WA and 18k in SA. It was a similar story for unemployment where it fell 1.3ppt in Qld and WA to 7.1% and 7.0% respectively while it was flat in SA at 7.9%. 
Hours worked lagging in NSW and Victoria but rebounding elsewhere.
Even with the August surge in employment (+111.0k/0.9%) hours worked lifted just 0.1% due to a –4.8% decrease in hours worked in Victoria (employment fell –1.3%) while the rest of the country recorded a 1.8% increase in hours worked. In the month, hours worked per person fell –0.8% driven mostly by a –2.3% fall in hours worked per part-time employee. Hours worked per full-time employee fell –0.2%. Nevertheless, in August the overall weakness was less concentrated in hours worked than it was back in April as hours worked per person is still 2.9% higher than it was in April (we note that hours worked per person recovered a touch in May even though employment fell further). Hours worked per full-time employee is up 1.9% since April while hours worked per part-time employee is up 15.7% again highlighting that the hit from Covid, and recovery to date, has been concentrated more in part-time employment than full-time. 
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sep_Oct_2020/LFAugEmpHrs.JPG" alt="">
As it did in April the July/August shutdown in Victoria had a larger impact on hours worked than it had on employment. Nevertheless, given the recovery in hours worked through June and July Victorian hours worked are still 0.5% higher than the May low, a touch better than the +0.3% gain for employment. In NSW hours worked lifted 0.7% which is softer than the 1.3% rise in employment. Victorian shutdown did create some uncertainty in NSW but it was expressed more as a reduction in hours worked than a reduction in employment.
For the smaller states hours worked per person continued to recover in August. Hours worked lifted 2.4% in Qld compared to a 0.7% gain in employment, hours lifted 1.8% in SA while employment lifted 1.6% and over in WA, a 2.4% lift in employment generated a 3.8% surge in hours worked. WA stands out with the strongest recovery so far with a 5.8% increase in employment and a 8.5% increase in hours worked from the shutdown lows.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sep_Oct_2020/LFAugRecover.JPG" alt="">
The Victorian shutdown again hit participation while a recovery continued elsewhere.
The weakness in Victoria also led to a fall in participation in that state, from 64.5% to 63.9%, which muted the rise seen elsewhere. Nationally participation rose just 0.1ppt to 64.8% (despite the outsized gain in employment) with the labour force lifting 24.5k. This muted rise in the labour force resulted in a significant correction in the unemployment rate with it falling to 6.8% from 7.5%. Back in May the unemployment rate was 7.1%; it was 6.4% in April.
Despite the employment gains in Qld participation in this state fell -0.5% to 63.9% but this was more than offset by a 0.5% gain in NSW to 65.2%, a 1.0% gain in SA to 62.8% and a 0.6% gain in WA to 67.9%. We are looking for a bounce in participation in Victoria and Qld in September but it is more unclear what to expect from the other states.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sep_Oct_2020/LFAugStatePart.JPG" alt="">
It is very interesting to note that participation in NSW and WA is almost back to the pre-Covid levels in March, down -0.10ppt om NSW and -0.06ppt in WA. In Victoria the participation rate is still -2.5ppt below its March level while in Qld it is still down -2.0ppt. The recovery in participation in NSW and WA suggest that the recovery has drawn workers back into the workforce and should we see any weakness in the labour markets in those state, there is the potential for correcting weakness in participation. Contrast that with Victoria and Qld where the economic weakness has held participation well below pre-Covid levels. As such, as these economies recover then participation is likely to pick-up preventing a more rapid fall in unemployment.
This suggests that there may be still sufficient flexibility in participation to buffer the unemployment rate from any significant change, both up and down, from moderate changes in level of employment. It will, however, depend on which states the weakness or strength appears. If the strength appears in NSW or WA, then there is less scope for participation to lift thus driving unemployment lower. On the other hand, if further weakness appears in Victoria or Qld then there is less scope for participation to correct lower and thus it is likely to drive unemployment higher.
Underemployment was flat in August.
The underemployment rate was flat a 11.2%, at two decimal places it was a 0.7ppt fall from 11.23% to 11.16%, so close to rounding down to 11.1%. From a record peak of 13.4% in April underemployment has eased back as the number of people working less hours than they normally do improved. In August almost 1,000k employees worked less than their usual hours for economic reasons with around 215k (or 22%) doing no work at all; over 760k worked some hours but fewer than usual. Following a 700k increase between March and April the number working zero hours for economic reasons fell by over 600k between April and July. However, in August the number working zero hours increased by almost 50k (+30%).
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sep_Oct_2020/LFAugUnder.JPG" alt="">
By state underemployment fell 0.9ppt in NSW to 9.8%, lifted 0.8% in Victoria to 13.8%, fell 1.3ppt in Qld to 9.3%, gained 0.4% in SA to 11.4% and fell 1.0% in WA to 9.6%. It is hardly surprising that underemployment rose in Victoria and that it is the state with the highest rate but it is interesting to note the strength in WA and that underemployment there is now lower than it is in NSW while Qld has the lowest rate for a mainland state.  
The flat print on underemployment is a further sign that while August may have been a robust month for employment and unemployment, it was not such a good month for economic activity with hours worked almost flat in the month with a solid rise in the number working zero hours for economic reasons and flat underemployment. If you are looking for signs of weakness it is not the rise of self-employed but rather the lift in those working zero hours for economic reasons.
The August survey confirms a more robust recovery in the labour market than many had expected.
This update has made it much more difficult for the RBA to hit its forecast peak in unemployment of 10% by end 2020. We estimate that to achieve that forecast rise in unemployment, employment would have to collapse between -400k to -500k by December; of course it will be dependent on the size of the fall in participation as employment contracts) This would be a very extreme situation and suggests an aggressive unwinding of support packages, such as JobKeeper, a massive rise in business closures and significant job shedding. The rise in the number working zero hours is a sign that things might not be a robust as a 6.8% unemployment rate suggest and we do note that that conditions and payments for JobKeeper have been modified from end September. However, the programme has been extended to March 2021 and we do expect to see further support should conditions deteriorate further, just as we have seen Victoria as conditions deteriorated there. We are not expecting the Government to go 'cold turkey' on JobKeeper and suddenly cut the programme.
Westpac is retaining our current forecast peak in unemployment this year of 7.8% in December which implies a loss of total employment of around 130k to 170k. Without a doubt, the recovery in the rest of the country has been more robust (so far) than we thought while the hit to the Victorian labour market was not as bad as expected. However, with the rolling off or adjustment of many of support packages (in particular JobKeeper) between now and the end of the year there is clear meaningful risk of a further decline in employment and a rise in unemployment.
JUSTIN SMIRK is ‎a senior economist for Westpac 
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Gig workers boosted employment in August: Justin Smirk

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EXPERT OBSERVER
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Employment rose by 111,000 in August (survey forecast: -35,000) after rising by an upwardly-revised 119,200 jobs in July (previously reported as an 114,700 increase in jobs). Full-time jobs rose by 36,200 and part-time jobs rose by 74,800.
The unemployment rate fell from a 22-year high of 7.5 per cent to 6.8 per cent in August (survey forecast: 7.7 per cent). It was the biggest monthly fall in the jobless rate in 32 years (July 1988).
Hours worked rose from 1.682 million hours to 1.683 million hours (up 0.1 per cent) but were down 5.1 per cent over the year. 
The participation rate rose from 64.7 per cent to 64.8 per cent in August.
In August, the underutilisation rate fell from 18.7 per cent to 18.0 per cent. The underemployment rate was broadly steady at 11.2 per cent.
Unemployment across states in August: NSW 6.7 per cent (July 7.2 per cent); Victoria 7.1 per cent (6.8 per cent); Queensland 7.5 per cent (8.8 per cent); South Australia 7.9 per cent (7.9 per cent); Western Australia 7.0 per cent (8.3 per cent); Tasmania 6.3 per cent (6.0 per cent); Northern Territory 4.2 per cent (7.5 per cent); ACT 4.2 per cent (4.6 per cent).
In August 2020, all states and territories recorded increases in the number of employed people except for Victoria. The number of employed people in Victoria decreased by 42,400. In contrast, New South Wales recorded an increase of 51,500 employed people and there was an increase of 32,200 employed people in Western Australia.
Over the three months to August 2020, all states and territories recorded increases in the number of employed people, led by gains in NSW (+188,100), followed by Queensland (+90,300), Western Australia (+73,400), South Australia (+33,400), Tasmania (+15,800), ACT (+11,900), Victoria (+9,500) and Northern Territory (+2,800).
A raft of companies is affected by the employment data but especially those dependent on consumer spending.
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<div class="WordSection2">
What does it all mean?
There is no doubt that this is a stunning set of job figures – especially considering that nation’s second largest economy was in lockdown throughout the month. More people were looking for jobs in August, more people found jobs, and more employees reconnected to their workplaces. The jobless rate fell sharply and a six-digit gain in jobs was recorded.
More than 86,000 unemployed people found work. The cherry on top was a drop in the youth jobless rate from 16.3 per cent to 14.3 per cent. The job programs are clearly working as intended.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/9/17/UNEMPLOYMENT%20RATE.png" alt="">
JobKeeper and JobSeeker have been instrumental in supporting the job market, spending and the broader economy. But the programs have made it more difficult in working out what is going on, specifically in the job market. But these are extraordinary times and the job programs are similarly remarkable.
There will still be bumps on the road ahead. But the federal, state and territory governments, Reserve Bank, unions and businesses can all claim credit for today’s stunning job figures.
However the hope is that the unemployment rate will now peak well below official forecasts of near 10 per cent. In fact, for this to occur at least 400,000 jobs would have to be shed by year-end – unlikely with Victoria’s restrictions being eased. And the aim has to be to be quickly get people back in jobs because the longer that people are out of work, the less employable they become.
The data shows a return to work of sole traders but fewer job gains for employees. That makes sense in that the economy is still only gradually re-opening. But it is an encouraging trend. 
Australia may be technically in recession like most of the globe, but it continues to be a non-typical recession. Consumer spending continues to rise as Kogan confirmed yesterday. Home prices are rising in many parts of the country. 
Home sales are lifting, underpinned by HomeBuilder. And infrastructure projects support commercial and engineering construction sectors. Despite tensions with China, our largest trading partner is hoovering up record volumes of iron ore and gold exports are expected to hit record highs, courtesy of pandemic demand.
The latest job data coincides with more data on job ads from SEEK, showing (ex-Victoria) another 1.8 per cent lift in vacancies in August.
What do the figures show? 
Labour force – August
Employment rose by 111,000 in August (survey forecast: -35,000) after rising by an upwardly-revised 119,200 jobs in July (previously reported as an 114,700 increase in jobs). Full-time jobs rose by 36,200 and part-time jobs rose by 74,800.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/9/17/EMPLOYMENT%20COMMSEC.png" alt="">
The unemployment rate fell from a 22-year high of 7.5 per cent to 6.8 per cent in August (survey forecast: 7.7 per cent).
Hours worked rose from 1.682 million hours to 1.683 million hours (up 0.1 per cent) but were down 5.1 per cent over the year.
The ABS noted: "Employment rose almost 1 per cent but hours worked rose by a more modest 0.1 per cent. Hours fell by 4.8 per cent in Victoria, compared to a 1.8 per cent increase across the rest of Australia.”
The weaker increase in hours worked has also been reflected in the strength of the increase in part-time employment between May and August, which has been almost eight times greater than the increase in full-time employment.”
The participation rate rose from 64.7 per cent to 64.8 per cent in August.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/9/17/PARTICIPATION%20RATE.png" alt="">
In August, the underutilisation rate fell from 18.7 per cent to 18.0 per cent. The underemployment rate was broadly steady at 11.2 per cent.
Unemployment across states and territories in August: NSW 6.7 per cent (July 7.2 per cent); Victoria 7.1 per cent (6.8 per cent); Queensland 7.5 per cent (8.8 per cent); South Australia 7.9 per cent (7.9 per cent); Western Australia 7.0 per cent (8.3 per cent); Tasmania 6.3 per cent (6.0 per cent); Northern Territory 4.2 per cent (7.5 per cent); ACT 4.2 per cent (4.6 per cent).
In August 2020, all states and territories recorded increases in the number of employed people except for Victoria. The number of employed people in Victoria decreased by 42,400. In contrast, New South Wales recorded an increase of 51,500 employed people and there was an increase of 32,200 employed people in Western Australia.
Over the three months to August 2020, all states and territories recorded increases in the number of employed people, led by gains in NSW (+188,100), followed by Queensland (+90,300), Western Australia (+73,400), South Australia (+33,400), Tasmania (+15,800), ACT (+11,900), Victoria (+9,500) and Northern Territory (+2,800).
ABS: “The participation rate for 15-24 year olds (who are often referred to as the "youth" group in the labour market) decreased 0.3 pts to 65.7% in August 2020. Employment for 15-24 year olds increased by 28,800 people (1.6%). The unemployment rate for this group decreased by 2.0 pts to 14.3%.”
The ABS highlighted the gains in jobs by sole traders: “In original terms, there was a 44,500 net increase in employment between July and August. This growth in original employment can be attributed to an increase in the number of owner managers (self-employed people) without employees, most of whom working in an unincorporated enterprise (e.g. a sole trader), which increased by 50,200 (Chart 1). In contrast, there was minimal growth in the number of employees (up 2,600).”
What are the implications for investors?
Australia continues to do well. The ABS notes that the US jobless rate was 8.4 per cent in July and the jobless rate was 10.2 per cent in Canada. Estimates for Australia on a similar basis were 7.3 per cent and 7.9 per cent.
The “effective” rate of unemployment is estimated at 9.3 per cent, so there are no grounds for complacency.
The resilience of the Aussie job market continues to provide support for retailers and the housing market. While challenges lie ahead, many retailers have adapted well to the new environment, especially the focus on online sales. 
Aussies need to collectively take a deep breath ahead of the wind down of JobKeeper and JobSeeker schemes over the next six months. The hope is that stronger operating conditions and reduced support payments will encourage workers to re-join the job market. Today’s virus case numbers in Victoria also offer reasons to be positive.
As noted Australia continues to do well, but challenges lie ahead. Note other data today showed the New Zealand economy contracting by 12.2 per cent in the June quarter – much more than 7 per cent Aussie decline. Getting the right balance between health and economic issues will be critical in the months ahead. NSW is showing the way with the most jobs created or reinstated in the past three months while keeping its borders open for business and implementing effective virus testing and tracing to keep the virus in check.
CRAIG JAMES is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>. 
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cjames-5S2v74qSNK

"Stunning" August jobs data as employment rose 111,000: CommSec

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The immediate impact of the coronavirus shutdown is striking in its magnitude, its speed and its concentration on a small set of industries.
My attempt to identify where the virus and the shutdown will have the biggest effect suggests that in February 2020 about 2.7 million workers were employed in the most exposed industries.
And while it won’t be possible to know for sure until April 16 when we get data from the Bureau of Statistics on the labour force in March, I believe it’s reasonable to think the jobs of about 900,000 are already under threat.
Which jobs are most at risk?
In the table below I list those whom I think are most at risk.
For one group of about 1.4 million workers – primarily in industries involving eating out, entertainment, recreation, accommodation and air travel – the loss of work is the inevitable result of government shutdowns.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323200/original/file-20200326-133027-18tpnci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323200/original/file-20200326-133027-18tpnci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> February 2020, <a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6291.0.55.003" target="_blank">ABS 6291.0.55.003</a>
Another group, comprising about 900 thousand workers, are in retail trades (non-food) and personal services, where the effect on jobs is coming from consumers cutting spending apart from on essential items.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323198/original/file-20200326-133027-bfmy9v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323198/original/file-20200326-133027-bfmy9v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> February 2020, <a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6291.0.55.003" target="_blank">ABS 6291.0.55.003</a>
Workers in both at-risk groups are predominantly young. More than half are under 35 years of age. Six out of seven are employees. About one in every seven is an owner/manager or works in a family business.
A slightly higher proportion are female than male. They are evenly split between full-time and part-time.
Some industries will grow
Some industries are seeing rapid increases in demand due to the coronavirus. They include the retail grocery trade and associated logistic services, and the supply of office essentials needed to work at home.
In a relatively short period there is also likely to be an increase in demand from the health care and health services industries.
Other areas where increased demand seems likely are the home delivery of goods bought online, cleaning services and services usually undertaken by volunteers and government agencies who are occupied dealing with COVID-19.
The total workforce will shrink
So far there has been little impact of the supply of workers, but it will happen.
It is beginning to occur as schools and childcare centres close and workers withdraw in order to care for their children, and it is accentuated by parents not wanting to risk outsourcing the task to grandparents.
In the coming weeks, there will be further hits to labour supply as illness from COVID-19 causes workers to need to take leave and other workers withdraw to provide care for family members who become ill.
It is difficult to be precise about the magnitude of withdrawal from the labour market, but it is potentially large.
To start with, most of the impact is likely to come from withdrawal for caring or to avoid illness.
As an indication of the potential scale of withdrawal, in 2019 there were <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6333.0" target="_blank">1.21 million</a> families with children aged from 0-9 years in which either a sole parent or both parents were in paid work.
In 2016 there were <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/home/2016" target="_blank">634,500</a> people aged 65 to 84 doing voluntary work.
Workers becoming ill might also have a substantial impact on labour supply.
Under a (hopefully pessimistic) scenario that COVID-19 continues its current rate of growth over the next three weeks, with those infected in the previous two weeks then unable to work, this would be about 67,500 persons out of work due to illness.
COVID-19 has already had a dramatic effect on employment – that much is evident from news images of queues at Centrelink.
Further impacts are almost certain in coming weeks.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323194/original/file-20200326-133016-13rn33f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323194/original/file-20200326-133016-13rn33f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> February 2020, <a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6291.0.55.003" target="_blank">ABS 6291.0.55.003</a>
The scale and speed of what’s happening is creating the most serious labour market policy challenge of the post-war era.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/134680/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jeff-borland-1079" target="_blank">Jeff Borland</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722" target="_blank">University of Melbourne</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/which-jobs-are-most-at-risk-from-the-coronavirus-shutdown-134680" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Which jobs are most at risk from the coronavirus shutdown?  Jeff Borland

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EXPERT OBSERVER
<div>
Employment and hours worked rose in July.
Employment was up by an estimated +114,700 or +1.3 per cent to 12.46 million.
However, employment remains -414,000 or -3.2 per cent lower than a year earlier.
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<div>The rebound in July was mainly driven in July by New South Wales (+57,000).</div>
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<div>There wasn't much change in the calculated unemployment rate, which rose from 7.45 per cent to 7.49 per cent. </div>
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<div>The state level numbers are seeing big swings, but Tasmania appears to be faring relatively well, with an unemployment rate of 6 per cent.</div>
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<div>Many parts of Queensland have been hit by the lack of international visitors, and the state's unemployment rates was estimated to be 8.8 per cent. </div>
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<div>Hours worked have recovered by 5.5 per cent since May according the ABS, but still remain -5 per cent lower than a year earlier. </div>
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<div class="separator">There was better news from Victoria today in terms of virus numbers, with the state having appeared to move past the peak of its second wave. </div>
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<div class="separator">There were very few cases in New South Wales, and other states and territories have been running at zero.</div>
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PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger 
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Employment rose in July: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Ordinarily this data would be considered ‘current’. But given that many parts of the economy have re-opened in the past 17 days – and more parts are expected to re-open in coming weeks – to some extent the jobs data is ancient history. Jobs slumped over March, April and early May as businesses went into hibernation. But job gains are expected from this month on as businesses re-open and workers re-join their employers. Certainly what we do know is that the number of payroll jobs rose by 1 per cent in May, lifting 0.4 per cent in the last week of the month alone.
The stimulus measures from governments and the central bank have all been directed at keeping people connected to their workplace. JobKeeper, and the expanded JobSeeker programs have been vital in that regard. Now the aim is to get people out of their homes and back at workstations. And the work support programs must stay in place to ensure that employers and employees have adequate opportunity to seamlessly move from hibernation to ‘normalcy’ – whatever that now means in the post-COVID-19 environment.
What is happening in the figures is that almost 230,000 weren’t registered as employed in May – they didn’t work more than hour a week in the reference week. But all those JobSeeker and JobKeeper recipients didn’t join the dole queue rather they “left” the workforce – they were neither employed or unemployed in the month. That is evidenced by the slump in the participation rate. Rather the JobKeeper and JobSeeker beneficiaries stayed home, and waited for the economy to re-start so they could return to workplaces.
While the jobless rate rose to 7.1 per cent, clearly it would have been far higher without JobSeeker and JobKeeper. The great hope is that the job losses that have occurred prove to be only temporary and that the re-opening of the economy is indeed successful.
The best way to describe the impact of COVID-19 on the job market is in terms of the number of hours worked. Hours worked fell 0.7 per cent after slumping by a record 9.5 per cent, and that accords with expectations that the economy will contract 10 per cent in the first half of 2020.
Many people have kept their jobs because of the JobKeeper program. So while those on the program are still ‘employed’ and deriving an income of sorts, they are not working, not adding to the output of businesses, and not adding to overall economic activity. The JobKeeper program keeps people connected to their employers, which is positive for the recovery phase. But the payments also ensure that people can spend and therefore serve to keep others in jobs and keep the economy moving.
The jobless rate is expected to peak near 8 per cent. And many forecasters expect the economy to contract 8-10 per cent in the first half of 2020. But provided social distancing is maintained with good hand hygiene and significant CONVID-19 testing, there is no reason that a ‘V-shaped’ economic recovery can’t occur as lockdown restrictions ease.
Looking ahead, the closure of our foreign borders will have a range of effects on the economy. Around 150,000 people come to Australia each year on different visas and do the jobs that Australians can’t or won’t do. If the jobs aren’t filled, then this could slow business output and economic output. But the absence, or reduced number, of migrants could serve to keep the jobless rate down if Aussies take up the jobs that they have shunned in the past.
The drop in jobs masks the impact – and future impact – on incomes. People have lost income and there is little hope for a lift in wages in the months ahead. Add in the deferral of dividend payments by listed companies and little or no interest income and there may be scope for ‘top up’ cash handouts by the Government. Today’s data adds to the case of governments maintaining as much support as possible until it is definitely no longer required.
What do the figures show? Labour force – May
Employment fell by 227,700 in May after falling by a record 607,400 in April (previously reported as 594,300 decline). Full-time jobs fell by 89,100 and part-time jobs fell by 138,600.
The unemployment rate rose from 6.2 per cent to 7.1 per cent in May. It was the highest jobless rate in almost 19 years (since October 2001).
Hours worked fell by 0.7 per cent in May after falling by a record 9.2 per cent in April. Hours worked are down by a record 9 per cent over the year.
The participation rate fell from 63.6 per cent to a 19½-year low of 62.9 per cent in May.
Spare capacity: In May, the underutilisation rate increased by less than 0.1 pts to a record 20.2 per cent. The underemployment rate decreased from 13.8 per cent to 13.1 per cent.
Unemployment across states in May: NSW 6.4 per cent (April 6.3 per cent); Victoria 6.9 per cent (6.0 per cent); Queensland 7.9 per cent (7.0 per cent); South Australia 7.9 per cent (7.2 per cent); Western Australia 8.1 per cent (6.1 per cent); Tasmania 6.4 per cent (6.2 per cent); Northern Territory 7.4 per cent (5.6 per cent); ACT 4.1 per cent (4.3 per cent).
Biggest job losses occurred in Victoria (70,800); New South Wales (43,900); Western Australia (30,200); and Queensland (28,100).
Participation rate: The male participation rate of 68.1 per cent was a record low. The female participation rate of 58.4 per cent was the lowest in 13½ years (since December 2006).
Notable highs for the jobless rate: NSW (highest since May 2009); Victoria (highest since October 2014); Queensland (highest since January 2002); Western Australia (highest since June 2001); Northern Territory (highest since September 2014).
“The participation rate for 15-24 year olds (who are often referred to as the "youth" group in the labour market) decreased 2.6 pts to 59.9 per cent in May. Employment for 15-24 year olds decreased by 102,900 people (-6.0 per cent). The unemployment rate for this group increased 2.0 pts to 16.1 per cent.
What are the implications for investors?
People are returning to their workplaces as businesses re-open. Lockdown restrictions continue to ease on evidence that the health strategy is working. So there are reasons for optimism. But we aren’t there yet – there will be challenges ahead.
It is important that we adhere to social distancing, maintain good hands hygiene and remain active in COVID tracking and tracing. Continued success in eliminating active COVID cases means that the economy can bounce back. But sharemarket investors need to remain a cautious stance, given the multiple challenges ahead.
Employment for 15-24 year olds fell by almost 103,000 in May, accounting for around just half of all the job losses. Governments will need to a close eye on this demographic to determine if further targeted stimulus measures are required. One area that could be targeted is the university sector with more places offered to local students given declining international student numbers. The last thing you want is for young Aussies to become entrenched in unemployment.
CRAIG JAMES,Chief Economist, CommSec
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Jobs slide again but there's hope for a rebound: CommSec's Craig James

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Australia Bureau of Statistics data has confirmed the massive economic hit from the COVID-19 pandemic, with total hours worked across the economy officially falling 9% between early March and early April 2020.
Our analysis, using data from the quarterly <a href="https://csrm.cass.anu.edu.au/research/publications/hardship-distress-and-resilience-initial-impacts-covid-19-australia" target="_blank">ANUpoll</a>, suggests the self-employed have been hit harder, with average weekly hours dropping by almost a third between February and April 2020. More than eight out of 10 self-employed Australians say their profits have taken a significant hit.
Decline in hours worked for the self employed
The ANUpoll is an important economic and social barometer in Australia because it is a longitudinal survey – polling the same group of people multiple times throughout the year. This enables a more accurate snapshot of how individuals are being affected.
The <a href="https://csrm.cass.anu.edu.au/research/surveys/anupoll" target="_blank">data we are releasing today</a> was collected from 3,155 Australians between April 14 and April 27.
It shows the 32% drop in hours worked by the self-employed (from 35.2 to 23.8 hours) was about double that of all employees, whose hours declined by 16% (from 35.5 to 29.7 hours).
The following infographic illustrates the degree of decline for all the self-employed in the poll (about 240 people). The blue dots above the red line show those working more hours in April; those below the line show those working less. Note the number at or near zero.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335284/original/file-20200515-138620-1no37fw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335284/original/file-20200515-138620-1no37fw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
 Comparing weekly hours worked by the self-employed in February to April 2020. ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, Author provided
Almost a third said their business would be unviable if financial trends continued for two months. If trends persisted for six months, 40% doubted they could survive.
The impact on savings and wellbeing
The proportion of self-employed saying they were finding it difficult or very difficult to survive on their current income increased from 29% to 36%.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335327/original/file-20200515-138654-8u4t3i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335327/original/file-20200515-138654-8u4t3i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
 Proportion of people finding it difficult or very difficult on their current income, by employment type. ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods
This contrasts with an aggregate improvement among employees, most likely due to higher payments for those on lower incomes, such as the A$750 given to social security recipients.
21% of self-employed respondents said they had accessed retirement savings or superannuation early, compared with 7% of employees.
Among those thinking their business was unviable, 69% reported feeling anxious and worried, compared with 59% of those thinking their business was viable. Life satisfaction was also lower (5.6 out 10 compared to 7.0).
What does this mean for the self-employed in 2020?
Current policies includes a large amount of targeted assistance for the self-employed. Without that assistance, the outcomes summarised above would be far worse.
As physical distancing restrictions are eased, it will be important to continue to monitor how the self-employed are faring to ensure the level of government support is sufficient and well-targeted.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138718/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/matthew-gray-229834" target="_blank">Matthew Gray</a>, Director, ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877" target="_blank">Australian National University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nicholas-biddle-10171" target="_blank">Nicholas Biddle</a>, Professor of Economics and Public Policy, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877" target="_blank">Australian National University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/self-employed-australians-hours-have-fallen-32-since-coronavirus-hit-double-the-impact-on-all-employees-138718" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Self-employed Australians’ hours have fallen 32% since coronavirus hit double the average

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There has been an overall decline in job ad volume, down -33.9% year on year to March 2020, according to the latest SEEK Employment Report.   The industries contributing most significantly to the overall decline in job ads are Trades &amp; Services, Information &amp; Communication Technology and Hospitality &amp; Tourism.   SEEK also acknowledges the rapid decline of the labour market throughout March. In the last month, national job ads declined significantly week on week compared to the same week last year. Since the beginning of March, national job ads have declined by;  
<ul>
<li>12.6% in week ended 8 March.</li>
<li>17.3% in week ended 15 March.</li>
<li>41.3% in week ended 22 March.</li>
<li>64.6% in week ended 29 March.</li>
</ul>
Kendra Banks, Managing Director, SEEK ANZ commented, "the coronavirus pandemic has caused widespread disruption to the labour market and SEEK is seeing a range of industries respond in very different ways.   "Hospitality and Tourism was one of the first sectors to be impacted by the pandemic. Job ads declined week on week throughout March, starting at -13%, then -26%, then -69.2% and by the final week of March, down -84.1%. SEEK saw employers and business owners looking for roles within the sector, such as bar staff, housekeeping, guest services, tour guides, airline staff and travel agents, cease or stall their plans completely, which is a direct result of the restrictions imposed by authorities such as international borders closing and social isolation measures."   "However, while still in decline, the Community Services &amp; Development and Healthcare &amp; Medical sectors are showing some pockets of activity, as governments and service providers aim to meet community demand. Roles in aged care and disability support, and child welfare, youth and family services have remained steady as have nurses practicing general medical and surgical, as well as critical care and ICU" "We know that employers are either scaling up or winding back their recruitment needs at a rapid pace, and there are far greater applications per job ad than what we typically see across almost all sectors."   "Our advice for jobseekers is to keep your SEEK profile up to date and follow the application process. Employers have been inundated with applications so standing out and being competitive by tailoring your resume to the job ad, being clear about your skills and experience which directly align to the job you’re applying for throughout the recruitment process is vitally important."   "As the coronavirus pandemic continues to unfold, we continue to watch the movements in the labour market very closely to understand how each sector is responding with regards to hiring intentions and business activity”. Figure 1: National SEEK Job Ad growth by state (March 2020 vs March 2019)
<img src="https://mcusercontent.com/3e29690342dff21ae5a0e2255/images/c2d86dac-3b7f-4c44-9bc7-2f5a5baa45ea.jpg" data-imagetype="External">
Figure 2: National SEEK Job Ad growth by industry (March 2020 vs March 2019)
<img src="https://mcusercontent.com/3e29690342dff21ae5a0e2255/images/f49d5868-7efe-46a4-a29e-55b79fad83d4.jpg" data-imagetype="External">
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Job advertisements down 34% in COVID-19 pandemic: SEEK

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EXPERT OBSERVER
When governments rolled out international travel restrictions, closed state borders and banned unnecessary travel as well as closing pubs, restaurants and casinos along with a variety of other facilities it was clear that the tourism and hospitality sectors would be some of the hardest-hit sectors.
However, it is still striking that 70% of food and accommodation employers reported a reduction in staff hours.
Food and accommodation employs about 8% of Australians, or about 1.2 million people. This is where a more granular view of employment data can highlight risks to the property market.
The detailed quarterly survey data provides insight into what industry residents work in, at the SA4 level.
The February edition suggests that most food and accommodation workers are highly concentrated in Sydney’s Inner West, followed by the Sunshine Coast and the Coffs Harbour-Grafton region.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/4/9/CL%20food.png" alt="">
The risk to demand-side factors for property is particularly susceptible in areas of high employment in food and accommodation, as the sector typically has more ‘precarious’ work arrangements. About 62% of those employed in the sector are employed on a part time basis, compared with the broader workforce, where 32% of staff are employed part time.
Interestingly, some of these areas also have more precarious housing arrangements, with higher portions of rental housing than ownership.
In Sydney’s Inner West, 35.4% of households are estimated to be renting households, as opposed to 31% nationally. This means that lesser hours in food and accommodation services may affect property values indirectly, because value estimates may be reconsidered based on rental return.
For Hobart, where 9.3% of the population are employed in food and accommodation, the CoreLogic home value index shows there has already been a drop in dwelling values, of -0.2% in March.
However, it is worth noting that the Hobart market was arguably due for correction even before the onset of COVID-19, having seen annualised capital growth of 7.7% each year for the past 5 years to March 2020.
Therefore, even though high concentrations of food and accommodation employment are indicative of greater risk to the property market, ongoing assessment of price and employment shifts will be necessary to isolate the full impact of COVID-19 on values. 
ELIZA OWEN is the Head of Research Australia at CoreLogic
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Food and accommodation work is more precarious for housing and employment: CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Job vacancies had barely begin their decline by the end of February, holding up at about 227,000.
Vacancies were lower than a year earlier due to the bushfires, but not by much.
Click <a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KNa301clF_4/XoVRp1y5JiI/AAAAAAAA1DM/Oc-nvFUNd0Yj1oiu6d41CR0KXGHCg2XbQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KNa301clF_4/XoVRp1y5JiI/AAAAAAAA1DM/Oc-nvFUNd0Yj1oiu6d41CR0KXGHCg2XbQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="384" style="font-size: 12.16px;" data-original-height="816" data-original-width="1359">
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>There were about 700,000 unemployed persons at the end of the last month, so there never was any tight labour market in this cycle. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>We simply never got low or tight enough to see stronger wages growth. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-D28blnXsgiw/XoVRp2NX0DI/AAAAAAAA1DI/e6kSJ5tag6QHcqB-Cc5JlpCHJ-5qPwktwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="824" data-original-width="1398"></div>
And full employment has remained elusive throughout the full cycle.
Click <a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d5OcMFYxtOs/XoVRprnURdI/AAAAAAAA1DE/VuLDAE0OyWoQ8tVThGIyatv2iax8ATpiACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d5OcMFYxtOs/XoVRprnURdI/AAAAAAAA1DE/VuLDAE0OyWoQ8tVThGIyatv2iax8ATpiACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="814" data-original-width="1408"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Looking at the most timely available data from private data sets on job vacancies and other reads, it seems likely that unemployment is probably heading to about 10 per cent, although the situation is very fluid right now. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>At the state level, the resources states were tracking a bit better, as Sydney and Melbourne have moved beyond their respective peaks. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click here to enlarge.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--rUsZxjmY2U/XoVRq0743RI/AAAAAAAA1DQ/0A7rMqDZHeM1ShxtFwsnDL6Px5T_8HbygCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--rUsZxjmY2U/XoVRq0743RI/AAAAAAAA1DQ/0A7rMqDZHeM1ShxtFwsnDL6Px5T_8HbygCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="811" data-original-width="1400"></a></div>
Challenging times ahead.
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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