<p>A landmark former orphanage site in Surrey Hills could be transformed into a new residential community under plans lodged by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/antipodean-land-developments">Antipodean Land Developments</a> that would deliver 76 apartments and townhouses while restoring some of the suburb's most significant heritage buildings.</p>

<p>The burgeoninng Melbourne-based developer has submitted plans for the 9,158 sqm site at 1 Kent Road and 24 Durham Road, home to the former St Joseph's Home for Destitute Children, a historic institutional complex dating back to the late 19th century. The proposal seeks to adaptively reuse several heritage buildings while introducing two new four-storey residential buildings set within extensive landscaped grounds.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> and Kerstin Thompson Architects, the project has been conceived as a contemporary residential village embedded within a restored heritage precinct. The development team describes the design approach as "The Village in the Garden," with new buildings positioned among mature landscaping by OCULUS and significant heritage structures.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="44ec8c1b-c0b6-44ae-859e-5811b3e6a023" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%281%29.png?VersionId=p.p1_KFh4iQoV4nisdnPfQBAsWNi7m79" /></p>

<p>The proposal would deliver 76 dwellings comprising a mix of apartments and duplex-style residences, significantly increasing housing supply on one of the largest privately held residential landholdings in Surrey Hills. The development includes 127 car spaces, 24 bicycle spaces and more than 1,000 sqm of communal amenity, with the existing chapel building earmarked for conversion into resident facilities.</p>

<p>According to the planning submission, the project centres on the restoration and adaptive reuse of the site's most significant heritage assets, including the original c.1889 St Joseph's building, the chapel designed by architect Augustus Andrew Fritsch, and the historic brick perimeter walls and entry gates. The proposal also incorporates the retention of other contributory buildings including the former infirmary and school building.</p>

<p>Tract Consultants, in the planning report accompanying the application, said the scheme had been shaped through extensive heritage analysis and design development.</p>

<p>"The shared vision for the Site by the project team has culminated in a scheme which successfully breathes life back into a historic site while delivering upon the objectives of Victoria's Housing Statement in a carefully curated and contextually responsive manner."</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7263b7d8-95ea-400f-9531-6ca7d22c3c33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%282%29.png?VersionId=4cR1tiWOsDpgxEOwZi5vVFcyvvOsYkIE" /></p>

<p>The proposal is being assessed under Victoria's Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway. As part of the application, three per cent of the project's residential development cost would be contributed to the Social Housing Growth Fund. The development would also provide a diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom residences targeting a broader range of buyers than typically found in Surrey Hills' detached housing market.</p>

<p>Sustainability initiatives include an anticipated 66 per cent BESS score, natural cross-ventilation to 80 per cent of apartments, 28 per cent deep soil landscaping and a canopy cover outcome exceeding local planning requirements. The proposal also sets aside more than 1,083 sqm for communal indoor and outdoor resident amenity spaces.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="33fad46f-fe26-4d0a-acfd-6b776e1c6a3d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design.png?VersionId=D9F6WVSyYCtGvSUmith35LRp6R7PQkw_" /></p>

<p>Planning documents describe the property as one of the largest underutilised residential sites in Surrey Hills, arguing it presents a rare opportunity to introduce "missing middle" housing in an established inner-eastern suburb while preserving and revitalising a significant heritage precinct.</p>

<p>Antipodean Land Developments has built a reputation for design-focused residential projects across Melbourne, particularly in the medium-density sector. Previous developments include Neighbourhood in Brunswick East, delivered with Breathe Architecture, and Balfe Park Lane, designed by Kerstin Thompson Architects.</p>

<p>They've been very active in site acquisition as they build out their future development pipeline. They recently launched Thornubury House, 45 apartments above a mix of commercial, retail, and food and beverage tenancies, and have plans for a boutique project in Fitzroy and another <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/antipodean-plan-apartments-for-deepdenes-missing-middle-on-whitehorse-road">"missing middle" project</a> on Deepdene's Whitehorse Road.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills

<p>Developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/auyin-property-development">Auyin</a> is the latest to turn to the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program in an effort to secure approval for its long-planned, mixed-use project in Elsternwick.</p>

<p>In 2018, Auyin lodged plans with Glen Eira City Council for a 14-storey building, however Council approved a reduced eight-storey scheme. A subsequent VCAT appeal in 2019 upheld the eight-storey height limit.</p>

<p>The project was later amended to nine storeys, but Auyin is now seeking to revive something closer to its original vision. The developer argues that the planning context has evolved significantly over the past decade, particularly within the Elsternwick Activity Centre, where higher-density development has increasingly been encouraged along Glen Huntly Road.</p>

<p>The proposal would transform the 1,239 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/7-12-horne-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">7-15 Horne Street</a>, opposite Elsternwick Railway Station, into a 13-storey residential and retail development designed by CBG Architects, with 40 apartments</p>

<p>The site currently comprises three commercial properties.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5f465dd4-509b-4082-a669-0253b313914b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20podium.png?VersionId=72frWi0SmQ5AVJ3ARRhX5ILUYObhTm7x" /></p>

<p>The proposed apartment mix comprises 25 two-bedroom and 15 three-bedroom residences above 200 sqm of retail space at ground level. Residents would have access to a 90 sqm wellness facility, a 351 sqm communal indoor and outdoor terrace on the third level, and extensive landscaped areas throughout the development. A publicly accessible 135 sqm plaza would be created on the north-east corner of the site, providing seating, landscaping, and a new gathering space adjoining Horne Street.</p>

<p>The design adopts a four-storey podium that references the finer-grain character of the surrounding streetscape, with the upper tower recessed behind generous setbacks on all boundaries.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e637e763-2abc-4c34-a0aa-5c7ad36fae18" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20open.png?VersionId=J1AoOpZgTyaF.KeeFSX6lMjEScX8KKRi" /></p>

<p>A key element of the proposal is the reconfiguration and widening of the surrounding laneways. Vehicle access would be retained from Lois Lane, with upgraded pedestrian connections linking Ross Street and Horne Street. The development would provide 58 residential car spaces, two retail car spaces, and 52 bicycle spaces across two basement levels and ground-floor facilities.</p>

<p>Architecturally, the building draws inspiration from the established character of Elsternwick Village. The façade combines dark charcoal brickwork, textured concrete, bronze-toned metal detailing, and extensive planting integrated into podium and tower levels. The design also incorporates a chamfered corner treatment and publicly accessible plaza intended to strengthen pedestrian activity around the station precinct.</p>

<p>Elsternwick's last new development completion was&nbsp;EVA Elsternwick by Pitard late last year. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/milieu-property">Milieu</a> is working away on its nature-led neighbourhood, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/elsternwick-gardens-by-milieu-8-gordon-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">Elsternwick Gardens</a>, on Gordon Street, with its first stage expected to complete next year.</p>


First look: Auyin seeks mixed-use apartment project in growing Elsternwick Activity Centre

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/otium-parkdale-123-125-como-parade-east-parkdale-vic-3195">Otium Parkdale</a>, the 13-residence boutique development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/huxtable-property">Huxtable Property</a>, has entered its final stages of delivery, with completion expected within the coming month and more than half of the residences sold.</p>

<p>The Como Parade East project is nearing the finish line at a time when opportunities to purchase new apartments in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parkdale-vic-3195">Parkdale</a> remain exceptionally limited. Fewer than 10 per cent of dwellings in the bayside suburb are apartments, making developments like Otium a relatively rare addition to a market traditionally dominated by detached housing.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5427]</p>

<p>The three-level development comprises 13 residences, including ten two-bedroom apartments and three larger three-bedroom homes, all positioned above a secure basement car park.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/almeida-architects">Almeida Architects</a> with a strong connection to its coastal surroundings, Otium combines red brick, exposed concrete and dark metal detailing with integrated landscaping and greenery. Expansive glazing, generous balconies and terraces have been incorporated throughout the design to maximise natural light and reinforce indoor-outdoor living.</p>

<p>Inside, the residences feature engineered European oak flooring, natural and reconstituted stone benchtops, Bosch kitchen appliances, ducted heating and cooling, lift access and secure entry systems. The larger three-bedroom residences on the upper level have been designed with house-like proportions, while the two-bedroom apartments prioritise functionality, flexibility and low-maintenance living.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5421]</p>

<p>The project is now in its final stages, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/labco">Labco</a> completing the remaining landscaping and external finishing works following the completion of the residences' interiors.</p>

<p>Otium's location within the heart of Parkdale continues to underpin its appeal. Residents will be just steps from local cafés, restaurants, shops and the newly elevated Parkdale Station, while the beach is less than a kilometre away.</p>

<p>With the project tracking ahead of schedule, buyers can currently secure a residence with a five per cent deposit and benefit from settlement terms of up to eight months. The advanced stage of construction also provides buyers with the opportunity to walk through the near-complete residences and experience the quality and finishes firsthand ahead of completion.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134974]</p>


Otium Parkdale enters final month before completion as rare apartment opportunity nears sellout

<p>A new boutique apartment development is entering the market in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chermside-qld-4032">Chermside</a>, with Brisbane-based developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ausdev">Ausdev</a> bringing 33 residences to a well-connected pocket of Brisbane's north.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/parkdrive-apartments-chermside-25-sammells-drive-chermside-qld-4032">Parkdrive Apartments</a>, at 25 Sammells Drive, will comprise a mix of one- and two-bedroom residences positioned within walking distance of Westfield Chermside, The Prince Charles Hospital, and Bradbury Park.</p>

<p>Established in 1989, Ausdev has a long-standing presence across both development and construction, with Parkdrive Apartments representing its latest residential project in Brisbane's northern suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363778]</p>

<p>The development has been designed around open-plan living and natural light, with residences featuring stone benchtops, timber cabinetry, BOSCH appliances, and private balconies that extend the living areas outdoors.</p>

<p>Kitchens are positioned as the centrepiece of the homes, incorporating natural material palettes and integrated appliances, while bathrooms have been designed with a focus on functionality and understated finishes.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a communal barbecue and entertaining area on Level 3, providing shared outdoor space within the development. Secure parking and lift access are also incorporated into the building.</p>

<p>The project will deliver a limited collection of 33 apartments, with one-bedroom residences priced from $749,000.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363782]</p>

<p>Beyond the building itself, the location places residents within easy reach of several of Chermside's key amenities. Bradbury Park is around 350 metres away, while Westfield Chermside is approximately 1.3 kilometres from the site. The Prince Charles Hospital is located within 750 metres, and the Chermside Bus Interchange is around 1.5 kilometres away, providing connections across Brisbane.</p>

<p>Parkdrive Apartments adds to the growing residential pipeline in Chermside, a suburb that continues to evolve as a major retail, healthcare, and transport hub for Brisbane's north.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152125]</p>


Ausdev introduces boutique Parkdrive Apartments to Chermside's growing centre

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/skymark-group">Skymark</a>'s boutique Cronulla development Solis has secured a 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy through Resilience Insurance, providing buyers of the 16-residence building on Ewos Parade with structural and waterproofing protection that extends a decade beyond the building's completion.</p>

<p>Currently under construction and due for completion in late 2027, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/solis-cronulla-8-ewos-parade-cronulla-nsw-2230">Solis</a> is one of a small number of new developments in the Sutherland Shire to carry Resilience LDI coverage, a distinction that carries increasing weight as buyer confidence in the off-the-plan sector continues to be shaped by how developers stand behind their product.</p>

<p>Latent Defects Insurance, which entered the Australian market in 2022 when Resilience Insurance was approved to offer the cover, protects buyers against major structural or waterproofing defects for ten years post-completion. Unlike traditional statutory warranties, it operates as a first-resort policy, if a covered defect arises, the insurer responds directly, without the buyer needing to pursue the builder or developer through a lengthy claims process.</p>

<p>Resilience Insurance CEO Corey Nugent has noted that the product addresses something fundamental to the new apartment market.</p>

<p>"The overarching feedback from prospective buyers in the new development space is that they want more confidence and assurances around the quality of the build," Nugent says.</p>

<p>"Resilience Insurance Latent Defects Insurance not only gives them complete peace of mind for 10 years, but it shows the developer they are buying from is standing by their product."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370898]</p>

<p>For Solis, the Resilience LDI policy adds a meaningful layer of accountability to an already considered project. The development comprises nine two-bedroom and seven three-bedroom residences, including one dual-level three-bedroom apartment, across a five-storey building on Ewos Parade, positioned between Shelly Beach and South Cronulla.</p>

<p>Garden apartments connect directly to private landscaped courtyards, while upper-level homes capture beach views to the east from level four and above.&nbsp;</p>

<p>All 16 residences include at least one balcony or courtyard, and select apartments on the upper floors feature bar areas and secondary flexible living spaces.</p>

<p>Hiba Sander, Managing Director of Skymark, says Solis offers a rare balance, nestled between the quiet beauty of secluded beaches and the lively charm of South Cronulla's esplanade.</p>

<p>"It's a place to choose your pace and live gracefully, seaside'," Sander says.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370900]</p>

<p>The architecture, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ida-design-group">IDA Design Group</a>'s Michael Trinh, draws from the natural erosion patterns of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/cronulla-nsw-2230">Cronulla</a>'s sandstone headlands, translating the organic forms of the coastline into soft curves, pavilion-style massing, and a material palette chosen for longevity in a salt-tinged environment.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Textured natural stone, soft renders, and timber-look battens reference the tones of the surrounding cliffs, while the building has been oriented to maximise natural light and passive ventilation, with primary living spaces facing north and east to capture morning sun and sea breezes.</p>

<p>"At Solis, our aim was to create architecture that feels quietly confident, grounded in natural materials like stone and timber, and elevated by light and landscape," Trinh says.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"The buildings are designed to sit gently within their coastal surrounds, with expansive glazing and abundant greenery creating a seamless dialogue between inside and out."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370897]</p>

<p>Interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hot-black">Hot Black</a> carry the same material language through to every room. Kitchens feature integrated Gaggenau appliances, sculpted stone benchtops, and Lo &amp; Co joinery, while bathrooms feature natural stone, timber, and brushed metal finishes.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Hot Black Founder and Design Director Sophie Safrin describes the intent as one of considered restraint: "At Solis, every detail has been thoughtfully considered to create a timeless coastal retreat, calm, refined, and effortlessly liveable. From natural finishes to seamless indoor-outdoor flow, Solis offers a quiet elegance that's deeply connected to its surroundings.</p>

<p>The landscape, designed by Julian Brady of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/sitedesignstudios">Site Design Studios</a>, treats green space as an integral part of the resident experience rather than an afterthought.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Gentle curves and layered native plantings mirror the ebb and flow of the ocean," Julian Brady says, "creating a serene connection between architecture and place."&nbsp;</p>

<p>Coco Republic has provided bespoke furniture packages tailored to the project's coastal palette.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370899]</p>

<p>Skymark has an established track record in the Sutherland Shire, with a portfolio spanning Cronulla, Woolooware and Burraneer that includes Isla, Sylva, Bask, Shells, Sula and Mist. Securing LDI on Solis reflects a broader shift in how the developer is positioning its buildings to buyers, at a time when Resilience Insurance expects the policy to become mandatory in New South Wales by 2028.</p>

<p>Sales at Solis are launching soon through Ray White Projects, with an official event scheduled for 11 June. Enquire for more information.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150499]</p>


Skymark takes out 10-year Resilience Insurance LDI at Solis Cronulla

Employment

<html><body>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The February Labour Force Survey was a disappointing update on the Australian labour market reporting a fall in total employment along with unemployment rising to its highest level in 15 months.</p>
<p>So far in 2017 the labour market has been quite a bit softer than we had anticipated.</p>
<p>In February total employment declined 6.4k and the annual was flat at 0.9 percent/yr holding well under the pace that our Jobs Index suggests it should be – circa 1¾ percent/yr and accelerating to around 2¼ percent/yr by late 2017.</p>
<p>The ABS notes that in the February survey sample rotation may explain some of the weakness in the month. In March if the sample rolling in is more like the average  of the total sample then this would result a bit of a positive bump. But sample volatility does not explain the weakness seen over the last three months.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/13/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-13%20at%208.33.47%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/13/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-13%20at%208.33.47%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Our 20k forecast for March holds the annual pace at 0.9 percent/yr but we note that changing seasonality increases the risk to this forecast.</p>
<p>In February, the rise in full-time employment was not a positive sign as it did not broken the recent trend for a greater focus on part-time employment. In addition the weakening in hours worked further emphasised that labour demand is somewhat weaker than what the business surveys suggest.</p>
<p>The –6.4k decline in employment in February was reported with a 19.5k jump in the labour force due to a flat participation rate of 64.6. This is why the unemployment rate jumped 0.2ppt to 5.9 percent (5.87 percent unrounded).</p>
<p>In March, if participation holds steady, a 20k gain in employment will be enough to hold unemployment rate steady at 5.9 percent.</p>
<p>Weak hours worked in late 2015 were something of an early warning of the soft patch in employment. In January we had found it very promising that hours worked per employee lifted 0.8 percent in the two months to Jan. Since then hours worked have pulled back so we are again closely watching to see if this is presaging a further slowdown in employment.</p>
<p>We also note a small lift in employees who expect to lose their job due to their employer closing. This series can lead changes in the unemployment rate. </p>
<p><em>Justin Smirk is ‎senior economist, Westpac Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/westpac-group/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Looking for signs of stability in the labour market: Westpac's Justin Smirk

<html><body>
<div>I've spent some time in recent weeks looking at migration and immigration trends.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The capital cities are accounting for an ever-greater share of population growth, now up to 82 percent, for a huge increase over the past decade from 75 percent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And this trend is forecast to continue over the next decade too.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In particular, Melbourne and Sydney are accounting for a record share of the growth in headcount.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>A valid question is: why?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are a number of drivers for the capital city migration, including an apparent desire to live "closer to the action".</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The main reason, though, is jobs, with the capital cities creating most of the employment since the peak of the resources investment boom. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The chart below looks at the number of unemployed persons per job vacancy by state, with the numbers smoothed on a rolling four quarter average basis. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In New South Wales the ratio has declined to just 3, with job vacancies advertised having hit a record high in H2 2016. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria has also responded relatively to interest rate cuts with the ratio declining from 6.6 to a more reasonable 4.2. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Many of the jobs created have been in or related to construction, of course, which may prove to be a transient dynamic.</div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/6/VACANCIES.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/6/VACANCIES.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Tasmania has the highest ratio at 7.8, but the latest figures show that this is about to drop sharply over the next couple of quarters as the outlook improves. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The problem child is Western Australia, which saw its labour force switch from full employment to an elevated level of slack after the peak of the mining construction boom.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lately the ratio in WA appears to have been correcting itself, but this is partly because some of the thousands of Aussies that migrated to WA during the boom years are now returning home (or simply heading to the eastern capitals for gainful employment). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The labour force challenges are generally more acute in a number of the regional centres than in the capital cities.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Most immigrants into Australia naturally gravitate towards Sydney and Melbourne.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile within Australia Sydneysiders are now drifting towards south-east Queensland, and residents of Adelaide are lurking across the border into Melbourne. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
</div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Employees flocking to eastern capitals: Pete Wargent

<html><body><div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">GUEST OBSERVER</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Total household wealth (net worth) stood at a record $9,404.5 billion at the end of December 2016, up $328.1 billion or 3.5 percent over the quarter – marking the largest quarterly increase in net wealth in seven years.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">In per capita terms. CommSec estimates that wealth rose to a record $386,972 in the December quarter, up $12,227 over the quarter and up around $24,000 over the year.</div>
<div class="column">
<br>Households held a record $1,046 billion in cash and deposits at the end of December. Cash and deposit holdings represented 22.4 per cent of financial assets. A record $798.2 billion was held in shares.</div>
<div class="column">
<br>Foreigners held a record $792.2 billion of Aussie shares in the December quarter or 45.1 per cent of the total.</div>
<div class="column">
<br>Job vacancies: Job vacancies rose by 1.8 per cent to 185,600 in the three months to February – a 6-year high. Job vacancies are up 7.3 per cent on a year ago.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">New home sales: New home sales rose by 0.2 per cent in February. </div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/31/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-31%20at%208.24.38%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="column"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/31/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-31%20at%208.24.38%20AM.png" alt=""></div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">What does it all mean?</div>
<div class="column">
<div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Bad news for the gloom &amp; doomsters – new data confirms that Australians have never been wealthier. While loans rose by 1.6 per cent in the December quarter, yet again this was exceeded by growth of financial assets. And on top of this, the value of homes soared by 4.5 per cent.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">In simple terms, debt may be up, but it is being used to purchase assets that are growing at a faster rate – not just homes but shares and other financial assets. Over the past two years financial assets have grown by $652 billion, well ahead of the $246 billion lift in loans. It is a point worth stressing to put more reason into the debate on household debt.</div>
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<br>But conservatism still reigns. The proportion of all financial assets in the economy held in cash and bank deposits has lifted to a 4-year high. In the December quarter over a fifth of all financial assets – 21.4 per cent – was held in cash and bank deposits. Aussie consumers, businesses and pension funds are all holding more than the “normal” proportion of financial assets in cash – especially companies and super funds.
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<div class="column">Foreign investors are still quite happy to hold Aussie shares. In fact foreigners now hold a record $765.6 billion of listed shares or just over 45 per cent of the total. In short, no worries about our economy from abroad.</div>
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<div class="column">The number of job vacancies has surged in the nine months to February and vacancies are now holding near 6-year highs. With more optimism on the global economy, business is shifting its focus to growth, investment and profitability. The lift in job vacancies certainly bodes well for hiring in coming months. Overall it is pretty clear that the job market remains in good shape.</div>
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<div class="column">Last year most of the jobs created were in part-time roles, with employers hiring more part timers and managing their workforce more carefully. The result was understandable given the degree of uncertainty that was prevalent with the Federal Budget, timing of an early election, and Brexit. However throughout the latter part of the year, employers started to add more full-timers. Stronger profitability and a focus on growth should give employers a degree of comfort to add full-time and permanent staff to the roster over 2017.<br><p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/31/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-31%20at%208.25.50%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/31/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-31%20at%208.25.50%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Interestingly there are around 13,000 more vacancies than at the same time in 2016. The jobs being created are primarily in the services sector, with healthcare and admin roles leading the gains. These jobs tend to be spread over a raft of small and medium-sized businesses as well as large firms, so generally don’t attract the same degree of media attention as jobs lost in mining. Importantly the lift in commodity prices should support the resources sector. In fact the latest figures suggest that the number of jobs across the mining sector has bottomed and now lifting – albeit incrementally.</p>
<p>What do the figures show?</p>
<p>Financial Accounts:</p>
Total household wealth (net worth) stood at a record $9,404.5 billion at the end of December 2016, up $328.1 billion or 3.5 per cent over the quarter – marking the largest quarterly increase in net wealth in seven years. In per capita terms. CommSec estimates that wealth rose to a record $386,972 in the December quarter, up $12,227 over the quarter.</div>
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<br>In real terms, the value of land and dwellings rose by $217 billion in the December quarter, while the value of financial assets rose by $29.3 billion. Net saving plus real wealth rose by $274.5 billion in the quarter.</div>
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<br>Household financial liabilities fell by $8.6 billion in the December quarter in real terms.</div>
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<div class="column">Households held a record $1,046 billion in cash and deposits at the end of December. Cash and deposit holdings represented 22.4 per cent of financial assets, up from 22.3 per cent in the September quarter and in line with the long-term average of 22.2 per cent.</div>
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<div class="column">Households held a record $798.2 billion in shares or 18.5 per cent of all financial assets, and above the 17.7 per cent average since the global financial crisis.</div>
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<div class="column">Pension fund (superannuation fund) assets rose by $52.7 billion to $2,013.1 billion in the December quarter. Cash and deposits stood at 14.8 per cent of financial assets, in line with the 14.8 per cent average since the global financial crisis but well above the long-term average of 9.7 per cent.</div>
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<p><span></span><span>Foreigners held a record $792.2 billion of Aussie shares </span><span>in the December quarter or 45.1 per cent of the total (long-term average 42.7 per cent). Share of bond holdings by foreigners rose from a 14-year low of 47.7 per cent in the September quarter to 47.8 per cent in the December quarter.</span></p>
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<p><span>Job vacancies: </span></p>
Job vacancies rose by 1.8 per cent to 185,600 in the three months to February – a near 6-year high. Job vacancies are up 7.3 per cent on a year ago.</div>
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<div class="column">In original terms, annual changes in vacancies across states and territories were: NSW (down 0.7 per cent); Victoria (up 10.5 per cent); Queensland (down 12.2 per cent); South Australia (down 2.3 per cent); Western Australia (up 0.7 per cent); Tasmania (up 32.9 per cent); Northern Territory (up 7.3 per cent) and ACT (up 5.9 per cent).<br><p>Vacancies rose 13,100 in original terms over the year. In terms of industries, vacancies rose the most over the year in Health Care &amp; Social Assistance (up 4,700), Other Services (up 3,000), Administrative &amp; Support services (up 2,900) and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (up 1,900). Vacancies fell most in Retail trade (down 3,300), Accommodation &amp; Food services (down 1,400), and Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services (down 800).</p>
<p>New home sales</p>
In seasonally-adjusted terms, new home sales rose by just 0.2 per cent in February. The number of detached house sales fell by 0.1 per cent while multi-unit dwelling sales lifted by 1 per cent.<br><p>The Housing Industry Association reported: “Detached house sales increased in two out of five mainland states in February 2017 - Western Australia and Victoria. Detached house sales in WA increased by 11.3 per cent in February 2017 following a rise of 12.1 per cent in January. Note that these rates of growth are exaggerated by the extremely low base for detached house sales. Detached house sales in Victoria posted a monthly gain of 5.1 per cent in February. Elsewhere for the mainland states, in February detached house sales fell by 12.6 per cent in New South Wales and were down by 5.7 per cent in Queensland and 0.2 per cent in South Australia.”</p>
<p>What is the importance of the economic data?</p>
The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases the Financial Accounts publication each quarter. The data covers assets, liabilities and financial flows for the key sectors of the economy. Figures on financial wealth help reveal the true state of household finances.</div>
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<br>The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases Job Vacancies data each quarter. The data is useful in gauging the strength of the job market.</div>
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<br>The Housing Industry Association releases data on the sales of new homes each month. The HIA collects the data each month from a sample of Australia's largest 100 home builders. The survey covers around 14 per cent of the home building industry. </div>
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<p><span>What are the implications for interest rates and investors? </span></p>
Record household wealth will continue to support spending. And it is clear that household balance sheets remain in very good shape. While the gloomsters focus on higher household debt, the simple fact is that money is being used to buy assets, assets that are providing better returns than the cost of the loans being taken out. Aussies aren’t borrowing in droves to buy luxury cars – although some indeed are. No, the majority are investing in shares, putting money to work in superannuation and investing in property.</div>
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<br>There is always a risk that asset values can fall as well as rise. But Aussies are well placed to deal with that situation should it eventuate.</div>
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<br>A number of retailers have noted that the ‘wealth effect’ has been positive for their sales – areas like furniture, cars, boats and electrical equipment. </div>
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<div class="column"><em>Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a></em></div>
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Job vacancies at 6-year highs: Savanth Sebastian

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Employment rose by 13,00 in December after rising by 37,100 in November (previously reported as a rise of 39,100 jobs).</p>
<p>Full-time jobs rose by 9,300 while part-time jobs rose by 4,200. Economists had tipped a 10,000 increase in jobs.</p>
<p>Fulltime employment lifted by 95,000 in the December quarter – best result since the September quarter 2010. Over the calendar year 2016 a total of 91,500 jobs were added – the weakest result since 2013.</p>
<p>Hours worked rose by 0.4 percent in December to be up 0.7 percent over the year.</p>
<p>The unemployment rate rose from 5.7 percent to 5.8 percent in December.</p>
<p>Unemployment across states in December: NSW 5.2 per ent (November 4.9 percent); Victoria 6.0 percent (6.0 percent); Queensland 6.2 percent (6.0 percent); South Australia 6.8 percent (7.0 percent); Western Australia 6.6 percent (6.9 percent); Tasmania 6.4 percent (6.3 percent). In trend terms unemployment in the Northern Territory was steady at 3.6 percent; ACT unemployment was steady at 3.7 percent.</p>
<p>A raft of companies is affected by the employment data but especially those dependent on consumer spending. Amongst stocks affected are Fairfax, West Australian Newspapers, Seek Limited, McMillan Shakespeare and Skilled Group.</p>
<p>What does it all mean?</p>
<p>Employment rose by marginally more than forecast with 13,400 new jobs created in December. For the 2016 calendar year a total of 91,500 jobs were added – the weakest result since 2013. From the perspective of the labour market, 2016 could be classified as a mixed year. One that also confused policymakers - with employment growth was soft over the year but the unemployment rate kept sliding, eventually falling to three-year lows. It was clearly a year, where employers were managing their workforce (cost base) very closely due to a subdued economic environment. In effect, the labour market was largely marking time over the majority of 2016 but there are initial signs of a shift coming.</p>
<p>The modest jobs growth in December, may not sound like much, but couple it with the solid job gains in October and November and it clearly shows a shift in trend. Over the last three months of 2016, more than 67,000 new jobs were created and more importantly all of that was in full-time employment. Full time jobs surged by 95,000 in the December quarter – marking the strongest quarterly growth in more than six years. The shift in the employment landscape is even more evident when you consider that the first nine months of 2016 saw paltry jobs growth of just over 24,000 with full-time jobs going backwards.</p>
<p>Looking forward, the outlook is certainly more encouraging. Job vacancies are holding near 5-year highs, in addition anecdotal evidence suggest activity levels amongst the business sector is lifting. The strength in commodity prices is also a positive and should support an improvement in employment across the resource states in coming months. It is still early days, but the last three months are certainly more upbeat.</p>
<p>The Reserve Bank is likely to look through the latest result and wait on timelier forward looking data. Reserve Bank commentary towards the end of 2016, suggests policymakers are relatively optimistic about Australia’s medium-term growth prospects. Over the next few months the Reserve Bank would be looking to see the impact of the lift in commodity prices - on growth as well as inflation. However the key would be a lift in non-mining business investment. CommSec expects interest rates to remain on hold over 2017.</p>
<p class="x_csbulletlv10"> <em>Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a></em></p>
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Full-time jobs post best quarterly growth in six years: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian

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<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/68802/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Over the last few years, we’ve seen a massive shift in the way we work.</p>
<p>Thousands of Australians have abandoned the traditional 40-hour work week to work fewer hours or take on ad-hoc work, such as driving for Uber or doing odd jobs on Airtasker. </p>
<p>But the way we measure the labour market has not kept up. We still rely on the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ labour force survey, a survey from the 1960s conducted according to international conventions that is no longer appropriate for today’s labour market.</p>
<p>Today’s economy – one of independent contractors, ad-hoc work, irregular and flexible hours – needs a new form of measurement. </p>
<h2>How the government measures the workforce</h2>
<p>Every month the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) surveys about 0.32% of the civilian population aged over 15 years about their employment status.</p>
<p>In short, you’re counted as employed if you completed at least one hour of paid work in the week before the survey.</p>
<p>But this doesn’t sound quite right. Clearly, one hour of paid work per week doesn’t fit most people’s idea of employment.</p>
<p>In fact, over one million workers are counted as “underemployed”, meaning they would work more hours if they could. This raises the question of whether these people should really be considered “employed”. The answer depends on what policy question you are trying to address.</p>
<h2>Is our unemployment rate right?</h2>
<p>Let’s get right into how our unemployment rate is calculated.</p>
<p>If respondents haven’t done any paid work in the last week, they are asked two further questions – first, have they actively sought work in the last four weeks, and second, are they currently available to start work? They are only considered unemployed if they answer yes to both of these questions. Otherwise, they’re not counted as part of the labour force. </p>
<p>This means full-time homemakers, carers, the ill and non-working retirees aren’t considered unemployed.</p>
<p>The labour force is the sum of the employed and the unemployed. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labour force who are unemployed. </p>
<p>Lastly, the participation rate is the percentage of the population aged 15 and older who are in the labour force. According to the latest ABS trend estimates, the participation rate stood at 64.5% in November, no change from October.</p>
<p>The participation rate has been consistently trending upwards over time for women and falling for men. This does not mean women are increasingly doing more work but that over time they have switched from unpaid to paid work. One of the main reasons for falling participation among men is that unskilled manual jobs for older men have been declining over several decades and many men have been reclassified as unemployed, disabled or retired. </p>
<h2>More issues with the survey</h2>
<p>The Labour Force Survey only provides a measure of employment and not the number of jobs. For example, a person might work 20 hours per week at a supermarket and 10 hours per week as an Uber driver. Employment is always classified according to the “main job”, so the ABS deems them as one person employed part-time (working fewer than 35 hours) in the retail industry. </p>
<p>If that person worked five more hours as an Uber driver the next week, they would be classified as full-time (35 hours) but the supermarket job would still determine the industry in which they are employed.</p>
<p>The crucial problem here is that there are two jobs being done, but the ABS employment estimate only counts one. So be wary of commentators and politicians making statements like “the economy gained/lost 10,000 jobs last month”! What jobs are they measuring?</p>
<p>The labour force survey also fails to make distinctions between different types of workers. About two million Australians work as independent contractors like construction workers or other business operators such as hairdressers working from home. However, in the figures they are not distinguished from regular employees.</p>
<p>Whereas it might be relatively easy for an employee to know if they did any paid work in the week before the survey, it might not be so obvious for a non-employee. For instance, an author might work 50 hours on their book one week and three hours the next. Most of their work is basic research rather than writing. They receive a royalty payment twice a year. How would they answer the question of whether they did any paid work in the last week?</p>
<p>For non-employees the question of whether they are prepared to start work and have been actively looking for work can also be complex. Someone doing consultancy work might not actively look for work because clients seek them out instead.</p>
<h2>We need something new</h2>
<p>The ABS has tried tackling some of these issues by conducting some different surveys, including the Characteristics of Employment Surveywhich presents information on all employed persons according to their status of employment. However, the framework classifies jobholders by their main job. That is, only the job in which they usually worked the most hours. This doesn’t capture many of the issues of concern in, say, the “sharing” or “gig” economy </p>
<p>The ABS has also attempted to compare the number of filled jobs to the amount of employed people, using estimates in the labour force survey. This can reveal interesting information about the labour market. For instance, in February 2013 there were 11,628,300 employed people in Australia, but an estimated 12,287,200 filled jobs. That is, there were 658,900 more filled jobs than there were employed people. </p>
<p>But even then, the estimates still use the conventional definition of a job. </p>
<p>The ABS is still working on an Australian Labour Market Account, based on International Labor Organisation (ILO) methodology, which may address some of the issues discussed here. But this will still be based on traditional definitions of jobs, employment, and unemployment.</p>
<p>Our conventional employment measures are no longer equipped to inform us about important aspects of our labour force and a reliance on them could lead to inappropriate policy. We need labour force numbers than can capture the nuances of a modern economy.</p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name">Phil Lewis is p</span>rofessor of economics, University of Canberra and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/phil-lewis-8714" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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mick.cee-iDmgDDAmu8

We need to find new ways to measure the Australian labour force

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title"><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2016/11/labour-market-weakness-under-hood"></a></h3>
<div id="post-body-5100146898223249015" class="post-body entry-content">Let's begin with the good news, because I'm in a jolly good mood and don't want to spoil it.<br><br>It won't take long anyway, as there isn't really that much good news to report!<br><br><div>The unemployment rate ticked down to 5.35 percent in original terms, the lowest in well over three years.</div>
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<div>In seasonally adjusted terms the unemployment rate of 5.58 percent was the lowest in 42 months, and well below the 6.32 percent seen in January 2015 (click the graphics to expand, as always!).<br><br>
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<div>Drilling the trend line through the figures, the unemployment rate of 5.6 percent looks healthy enough. </div>
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<div>In New South Wales the trend unemployment rate has continued to decline to just 4.89 per cent, the lowest figure in nearly six years, while Victoria and Queensland are also moving in the right direction.<br><br>The trend hasn't caught up but Queensland's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 5.8 per cent. Bonzer.</div>
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<div>Tasmania and Western Australia are heading the other way. </div>
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<br><div>Although not charted here due to their respective small sample sizes, the unemployment rates in the Northern Territory (3.5 per cent) and the ACT (3.4 per cent) are low. </div>
<br>OK, that's great. Now brace for the not-so-cheerful news....<br><br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">"Jobs and growth?" Maaate...</span></strong></div>
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<div>Hiring is usually strong at this time of year, and total employment increased by about +78,800 over the last two months.</div>
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<div>After accounting for seasonality, however, this month's increase was only +9,800, although that figure did at least include a vast swing back to full-time employment of +41,500. </div>
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<div>This all sounds cool until we revisit what happened last month, which was a big seasonally adjusted drop in employment, while full-time employment is nearly 90,000 lower than at the beginning of the year.</div>
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<div>Looking through the noise, the trend in employment growth now looks poor. </div>
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<br><div>Another way to look at this is to view the annual trend employment change, which has dropped to +108,100, or an a trend annual increase of only +0.9 percent. </div>
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<br><div>The annual rate of employment growth is at its lowest level in 23 months and is now below the rate of population growth, and categorically 'not good enough'!</div>
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<div>Victoria has now cruised to the top of the employment growth charts, with Victoria (+107,300) and New South Wales (+46,100) accounting for more than all of the net employment growth over the past year.<br><br>Employment in Tasmania dived by -3,400 in October to be -4,300 lower than a year ago. </div>
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<div>Queensland employment fell by -16,900 in the month, and by -46,000 over the year. This month's result was a rogue statistic due to the sample rotation from September, though there's no question that employment in aggregate has weakened in the Sunshine State, led by resources-related job losses in locations such as Townsville. </div>
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<div>I'll look at the Queensland figures by region in more detail next week. </div>
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<br><div>Shadow Treasurer Scott Emerson highlighted that 67,600 jobs had been lost in Queensland since the beginning of the year and that "anyone who sees today's result as good news doesn't understand how tough it is to find a job in Queensland".</div>
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<div>He's right about the second part, but clearly he didn't read the commentary on the incoming sample and cocked up his numbers by calculating them from the end of January rather than the beginning. Maybe that was deliberate. Oh well, at least his job doesn't require strong numeracy skills! </div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>While the unemployment rate superficially looks positive, the participation rate is well down and now at the lowest level since early 2006. </div>
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<div>Despite a much improved monthly result, total hours worked - as useful an indicator as any when looking at a volatile survey - increased by only +0.9 per cent over the year to October, and less in trend terms. </div>
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<div>And despite the wild swing back to full-time employment this month, it's important to see through the monthly noise and understand that much of the growth in jobs has been part-time in nature over recent times.</div>
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<div>Therefore, we have the weakest nominal wages growth on record, some of the weakest non-tradables inflationary pressures on record, and weak employment growth across recent months. </div>
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<div>Sounds like the easing cycle isn't over to me, but markets remain tentative for now, and job vacancies figures have admittedly been solid enough.<br><br>I will just note that when the labour force report prints solidly most commentary states that it must be somehow wrong, yet when the figures are weaker (as they are now) they are instantly taken at face value!<br><br>Something to bear in mind if the headline figure snaps back up next month...</div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Labour market: weakness under the hood

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<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/67455/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Australia’s immigration system is at risk of losing public confidence, undermining its long running success.</p>
<p>The government needs to make policy changes to put migrant workers and employers back on equal footing.</p>
<p>The successful “Brexit” campaign to leave the European Union illustrates the consequences of failing to properly manage public perception of immigration. Changes to the United Kingdom’s immigration policy were producing economic benefits and helping to plug gaps in the UK labour market. However, opponents successfully blamed the EU’s free movement of labour for increased immigration and various social and economic problems. </p>
<p>Australia’s situation is different, but there is weak regulation of the employers who hire migrant workers, especially temporary visa holders who are often susceptible to being mistreated. This is serving to marginalise migrants in the labour market and broader society.</p>
<p>Large intakes of economic immigrants have not led to major political upheaval in Australia. Aside from occasional spikes in support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, anti-immigration parties have failed to establish ongoing influence. Labor and the Coalition have supported expansive economic immigration policies for much of the post-war era.</p>
<p>The impact of economic immigration on Australia’s population, economy, and labour market is virtually unmatched. Since 1945, immigrants and their immediate descendants have accounted for over half of the nation’s population growth. </p>
<p>More than one in four workers in Australia were born in another country. The foreign-born population as a share of total population is higher in Australia than in any other OECD country, except for Luxembourg and Switzerland.</p>
<p>Australia’s immigration policies have changed significantly in recent years. They have shifted increasingly towards temporary immigration, focused on skilled, working holiday and international student visas. </p>
<p>While this marks a departure from Australia’s legacy of encouraging immigrants to settle on a permanent basis, benefits of these changes are evident.</p>
<p>Economic immigrants have offset an ageing population, improved labour productivity, helped businesses to source skills that are difficult to find at short notice and addressed the needs of regional areas and industries. </p>
<p>Unemployment among skilled immigrants is negligible because they tend to be employed in high-income occupations and contribute more to government revenue through taxation than they take through public services and benefits.</p>
<p>Just as a steady inflow of immigrants has eased Australia’s shift from a manufacturing to a services economy, they will play an important role in helping our businesses to innovate in the face of intensified global competition and technological change.</p>
<p>However reforms are needed to maintain public support for sustained immigration intakes. Most importantly, widespread underpayment and mistreatment of working holidaymakers and international students in the workplace must be addressed urgently. </p>
<p>Such issues have been exposed internationally. They may negatively impact Australia’s competitive standing in industries such as education and horticulture that rely heavily on temporary migrant workers.</p>
<p>Recent media reports, government inquiries and academic studies show that mistreatment of temporary migrant workers is not limited to 7-Eleven. Policy changes particularly through strong enforcement of regulations are needed to restore level playing fields for business and the workforce.</p>
<p>Some visa arrangements can cause temporary migrant workers to become dependent on their employers. For example, international students are required to work no more than 40 hours per fortnight. </p>
<p>A small transgression exposes international students to potential visa cancellation and removal. Their resident rights, enrolment in education, and employment are then dependent on employers not sharing any breaches of their visa conditions with the Department of Immigration and Border Protection. Unless these and other arrangements the create dependence on employers are fixed, temporary migrants will remain fearful of seeking redress. </p>
<p>Weak enforcement of employment laws fails to deter unscrupulous employers from underpaying and mistreating temporary migrants and puts honest employers at a competitive disadvantage. </p>
<p>The Fair Work Ombudsman has only 250 inspectors for 2.1 million workplaces and 11.6 million workers. It needs more resources to ensure that our employment laws are enforced in industries with large numbers of temporary migrant workers such as food services, hospitality, retail, and horticulture.</p>
<p>Allocation of temporary skilled 457 visas must reflect genuine skills shortages rather than recruitment problems some employers experience, which are often the result of the low wages and poor conditions they offer to prospective employees. </p>
<p>The policies governing 457 visas must take greater account of objective longer-term labour market needs. This includes providing opportunities for decent employment and attractive career paths for workers, rather than serving subjective short-term employer interests.</p>
<p>Economic immigration in Australia has been managed remarkably successfully. But for the good of the country we must address current challenges that have the potential to undermine public confidence in existing immigration policies.</p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name">Chris F. Wright is p</span>ostdoctoral Research Fellow, University of Sydney and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chris-f-wright-9738" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name">Stephen Clibborn is a</span>ssociate lecturer, The University of Sydney Business School, University of Sydney and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/stephen-clibborn-111815" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Both are authors for The Conversation.</em></p>
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Australia is at risk of losing migrants who are vital to the health of our economy

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<p>While Australia celebrates 25 years of economic growth, or an expansion in GDP, one economist says the story is different for the average household as an increase in population takes a toll on living standards.</p>
<p>Commonwealth Bank senior economist Gareth Aird says in a report produced by the bank’s economics team that the focus on the headline GDP number is misleading, and a better measure would be the per capita growth.</p>
<p>Aird said while the focus on immigration has boosted consumption because “more people means more spending”, and hence GDP growth, population growth creates problems like overcrowding, traffic congestion and high housing costs.</p>
<p>The latest gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the June quarter, released in September, showed the economy growing at an annual pace of 3.3 percent.</p>
<p>"Despite the fact that the economy's growing at what looks like a healthy clip on the surface, the way that transfers to how households feel at the moment suggests that things aren't too crash," Aird was quoted by ABC.</p>
<p>Aird said the headline GDP figure ignores population growth, which automatically grows the economy but not the standard of living.</p>
<p>“If you've got more people, you've got more spending," he said in an interview for RN Breakfast.</p>
<p>“But what really matters for households is not the overall growth rate of the economy but how their incomes are growing."</p>
<p>He said a better measure for this purpose is real net national disposable income (RNNDI) per capita, which more closely reflects the income going to households and their capacity to buy goods and services.</p>
<p>Unlike GDP, which has been boosted by the rising volume of mining exports even though prices for those exports have slumped, RNNDI has been hit hard, and has been going backwards for most of the past five years when looked at per person.</p>
<p>He said governments focus more on GDP growth because it “benefits businesses that can take advantage of an ever growing population, or customer base if you like”. </p>
<p>One of the economic arguments that has been used to support current immigration rates has been that it helps offset an ageing population.</p>
<p>However, the CBA report said this is only "kicking the can down the road", with the current working age migrants themselves ageing and leaving the workforce 20, 30 or 40 years from now.</p>
<p>Although Aird did point out the benefits to the Australian economy from immigration.</p>
<p>"If you look at the historical experience of Australia, there has absolutely been benefits to having pretty strong population growth," he said.</p>
<p>"But I think more recently we've seen some of the indicators suggest that those benefits are probably starting to wane and unless there's a commensurate lift in public investment, a look at housing affordability more broadly ... then I think the benefits to running a strong immigration program are questionable."</p>
<p>He said to make migration work, governments should also focus on building infrastructure such as more affordable transport and housing.</p>
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Population growth fuels GDP rise, but lowers living standards: CBA economist

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<div class="column">GUEST OBSERVER</div>
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<div class="column">Employment fell by 9,800 in September after falling by a revised 8,600 people in August (previously - 3,900). Full-time jobs fell by 53,000 while part-time jobs rose by 43,200. Economists had tipped a 15,000 increase in jobs.</div>
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<br>Hours worked rose by 0.2 percent in September. Hours worked are up by 0.3 percent on the year.</div>
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<br>Jobless rate: The unemployment rate fell from 5.7 percent to 5.6 percent in September. To two decimal points the jobless rate fell from 5.66 percent to 5.57 percent (lowest rate recorded in 31⁄2-years). The trend unemployment rate fell from 5.7 percent to 5.6 percent (hasn’t been lower in 31⁄2-years). The participation rate eased from 64.7 percent to 64.5 percent.</div>
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<br>Unemployment across states in September: NSW 4.9 percent – 4 year low (August 5.0 percent); Victoria 5.7 percent (5.6 per cent); Queensland 6.0 percent (6.2 percent); South Australia 6.7 percent (6.8 percent); Western Australia 6.2 percent (6.3 per cent); Tasmania 6.5 percent (7.2 per cent). In trend terms unemployment in the Northern Territory fell from 3.5 percent to 3.4 percent; ACT unemployment was steady at 3.5 percent.</div>
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<br>A raft of companies is affected by the employment data but especially those dependent on consumer spending. Amongst stocks affected are Fairfax, West Australian Newspapers, Seek Limited, McMillan Shakespeare and Skilled Group.</div>
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<br>What does it all mean?</div>
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<br>Well the latest employment result certainly disappointed. Expectations were for a modest lift in overall employment however not only did total employment fall in September but the August result was revised to a larger fall. In addition the job losses once again centred on full-time employment. Full time jobs fell by over 53,000 in September – the biggest monthly fall in 51⁄2-years.</div>
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<br>The shift to part-time employment has been the trend so far over 2016. In fact full-time employment fell by 112,100 over the nine months of 2016 compared with a gain of 104,000 full-time jobs this time last year. The economy lost momentum around the time of the UK ‘Brexit’ vote and the Federal Election. Simply, businesses wanted to see what happened before deciding on additional spending, investment or employment. It’s clear that Aussie business have been trying to manage their largest cost base (wages) given the slowdown in activity levels over the first half of 2016.</div>
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<div class="column">We expect that economic momentum will recover in the next few months. Anecdotal evidence suggests that spending has picked up after the election. Certainly job advertisements have continued to lift, in fact job vacancies are holding at 3- year highs – suggesting that employers are looking to hire staff in coming months. And both consumer and business confidence lifted in the last month.</div>
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<div class="column">Interestingly the unemployment rate continues to fall, now holding at a 31⁄2-year low. The slide in unemployment is being driven by a modest slide in the participation rate. However there is a vast differential across the states. In NSW unemployment as fallen to 4.9 percent – the lowest result in four years, while the ACT has an unemployment rate of 3.5 percent. At the other end of the spectrum unemployment in South Australia, Tasmania and Western Australia held well above 6 percent.</div>
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<br>The weaker-than-expected unemployment result has left the door open for the Reserve Bank to cut rates in in November, but only if inflation remains stubbornly low next week. For the record we expect the “headline” CPI probably rose 0.4 percent in the quarter and 1.0 percent over the year, replicating the June quarter results. We expect that “underlying” prices rose by 0.5 percent in the quarter and 1.7 percent over the year.</div>
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<br>Results in line with our forecasts don’t provide the “smoking gun” needed to justify another rate cut. But if the underlying estimate of inflation lifts by less than 0.4 percent then another rate cut will be on the agenda at the November 1 Reserve Bank Board meeting. The question for Reserve Bank Board members is whether there is value in cutting rates again.</div>
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<br>What do the figures show?</div>
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<br>Labour force:</div>
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<br>Employment 9,800 in September after falling by a revised 8,600 people in August (previously -3,900). Full-time jobs fell by 53,000 while part-time jobs rose by 43,200. Economists had tipped a 15,000 increase in jobs.</div>
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<div class="column">Hours worked fell by 0.2 percent in August. Hours worked are up by 0.7 percent on the year.</div>
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<div class="column">The unemployment rate 5.7 percent to 5.6 percent in September. To two decimal points the jobless rate fell from 5.66 percent to 5.57 percent (lowest rate recorded in 31⁄2-years). The trend unemployment rate fell from 5.7 per cent to 5.6 per cent (hasn’t been lower in 3 1⁄2-years).</div>
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<br>The participation rate eased from 64.7 percent to 64.5 percent.</div>
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<div class="column">Click to enlarge</div>
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<div class="column">A total of 163,200 jobs were added over the year to September. The annual growth rate eased to a 17-month low of 1.4 percent. In trend terms, employment has risen for 34 consecutive months. The working age population rose by 24,800 in September. The working age population rose by 289,900 (1.51 per cent) over the last year.</div>
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<br>Unemployment across states in September: NSW 4.9 percent (August 5.0 percent); Victoria 5.7 percent (5.6 percent); Queensland 6.0 percent (6.2 percent); South Australia 6.7 percent (6.8 percent); Western Australia 6.2 percent (6.3 percent); Tasmania 6.5 percent (7.2 percent). In trend terms unemployment in the Northern Territory fell from 3.5 percent to 3.4 percent; ACT unemployment was steady at 3.5 percent.</div>
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<br>Jobs across states and territories in September: NSW +6,700; Victoria -11,700; Queensland -4,100; South Australia unchanged; Western Australia -7,600; Tasmania +2,300. Trend terms: Northern Territory -100; ACT +400.</div>
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<br>Why is the data important?</div>
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<br>The Labour Force estimates are derived from a monthly survey conducted by the Bureau of Statistics. The population survey is based on a multi-stage area sample of private dwellings (currently about 22,800 houses, flats, etc.) and a sample of non-private dwellings (hotels, motels, etc.). The survey covers about 0.24 per cent of the population of Australia and includes all people over 15 years of age, except defence personnel.</div>
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<br> If more people are employed, then there is greater spending power in the economy. But at the same time companies may adjust the work hours of employees. If employees work less hours, and therefore get paid less, then spending power in the economy is reduced.</div>
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<br>What are the implications?</div>
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<div class="column">The latest jobs data suggests that the improvement in business conditions and confidence is yet to translate through to a lift in full-time employment. But overall it seems a case of steady as you go. The jobless rate is still the lowest recorded in three years and job ads data suggest that it could fall further in coming months.</div>
<div class="column">As the job market tightens, the focus will shift to wage pressures. 
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<div class="column"><em>Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a></em></div>
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No smoking gun for RBA after full-time jobs record biggest fall in 5½-years

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Australia’s population is estimated to have clocked 24 million during the March quarter.</p>
<p>The annual growth rate has been tracking around 1.4 percent for the past six quarters. It is quite a bit lower than the pre-GFC boom years when population growth was running around 2.0 percent pa. But it remains high by OECD standards and is considered to be a strong pace.</p>
<p>Robust population growth means the economy needs to be expanding at a faster rate than otherwise to achieve full employment. That of course means that the economy has the capacity to expand at a faster rate too.</p>
<p>The slowdown in Australia’s population growth rate is a contributing factor to why most estimates of trend growth for the economy have been lowered in recent years – both Treasury and the RBA have lowered their estimates of trend growth to be in 2 3⁄4 to 3 percent range.</p>
<p>In the short run, however, the economy can expand  above that pace because; (i) the unemployment rate is above the non-accelerating inflation  rate of unemployment (NAIRU) and can move lower; and (ii) productivity in the resources sector will continue to lift as production comes on stream. </p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/09/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-27%20at%203.17.13%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/09/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-27%20at%203.17.13%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The major driver behind Australia’s population growth continues to be net overseas migration (NOM). However, its contribution to growth has come down over the past few years. Both sides of federal politics favour high levels of immigration to partially offset some of the effects from the ageing of the population. It also allows the economy to grow at a faster rate than would otherwise be the case which boosts aggregate demand. And it has significantly boosted demand for housing which flows through to higher prices. </p>
<p>The ‘grey army’ – those aged 65 and over – has continued to grow as a share of Australia’s population. The growth of this age cohort underpins the structural decline in labour force participation. The ageing of the population has increased the dependency ratio (the age-to-population ratio of those typically not in the labour force) which underpins the need for fiscal reform, particularly tax policy. </p>
<p>The detail</p>
<p>Australia’s population is estimated to have risen by 328k in QI (+0.4 percent). The lift takes the population to 24.1 million as at March 2016. NOM was 181k in the year to March 2016,  up from 177k in the year to March 2015. But well down from the peak of 315k in 2008. </p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/09/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-27%20at%203.18.28%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/09/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-27%20at%203.18.28%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Population growth is well above the national rate in Victoria. This underpins very strong employment growth in the Garden State, robust residential construction and strong State Final Demand (SFD). It does little for per capita SFD growth, however. The decline in mining investment and associated downturn in mining-related employment has contributed to a sharp slowdown in WA’s population growth rate. </p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/09/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-27%20at%203.21.03%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<p><span>Table 1: Population growth </span><span>– </span><span>QI 2016 </span></p>
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<p><em><span>Gareth Aird is e</span><span>conomist at Commonwealth Bank and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/gareth-aird/14/790/905" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></em></p>
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